The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
October 14, 2017

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Cardinals are 10-0 ATS (12.45 ppg) since October 24, 2004 and as a dog coming off a loss as a dog where they allowed at least 400 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Saints are 0-10-1 ATS (-15.05 ppg) since November 2013 as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they had at least 32 minutes time of possession.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-8-1 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 coming off a win where Philip Rivers threw at least 40 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Redskins are 11-0 OU (6.6 ppg) since December 26, 2015 coming off a game where they allowed at least 24 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-13 OU (-7.65 ppg) since November 13, 2011 off a game as a dog where they had at least 32 minutes time of possession.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Vikings are 0-12 OU off a road win in which they rushed the ball for at least 50 yards more than their season-to-date average.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 6
October 14, 2017

The ‘under’ posted an 8-6 record in Week 4 and most of the low-scoring results were never in doubt. Unlike the previous weekend, there weren’t any terrible ‘bad beats’ but the 49ers-Colts outcome received a late surge from San Francisco to help the ‘over’ plus things broke right for the offensive units at the end of the Packers-Cowboys contest. Through five weeks of the season, our numbers have the ‘under’ sitting at 39-37-1 based on our closing numbers.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 6 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Cleveland at Houston: 44 to 47
Miami at Atlanta: 47 ½ to 45 ½
Detroit at New Orleans: 51 to 49 ½
Green Bay at Minnesota: 47 to 44 ½ (Vikings Injuries)
Chicago at Baltimore: 41 ½ to 38 ½
L.A. Rams at Jacksonville: 44 to 42 ½
N.Y. Giants at Denver: 41 to 39 ½

It’s rare to see totals drop on a pair of known ‘over’ teams at home in the Falcons and Saints but that’s the case this week.

"Well, we know that the public isn’t playing the under on any Saints or Falcons games so it’s sharp money bringing those down,” said Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

“I doubt the Saints’ total will stay under its opener with the Lions a “perceived” scoring team too. The Atlanta movement makes sense considering the Dolphins are anemic offensively.”

One game receiving an upward tick is the Cleveland-Houston matchup and Cooley believes it’s a combination of factors. He explained, “Houston losing two of its three best defensive players as well as the Houston offense. With Watson under center, that thing is humming, and Bill O’Brien is doing a great job calling plays.”

Along with taking a position on the Browns-Texans ‘over’ on Sunday, the guys behind the BookMaker.eu counter have large liabilities on three ‘under’ wagers - Green Bay at Minnesota, L.A. Rams at Jacksonville, N.Y. Giants at Denver.

Hit the Road

As I’ve written before on VegasInsider.com, the goal of the site is to inform our users with entertaining content and hopefully that will help win your wagers. I enjoy the science behind sports betting and really appreciate when I receive trends, angles and systems from users that help my own personal wagering.

With that being said, here’s an angle that was brought to my attention from an individual back in 2008 and I’ve been posting since I started writing the weekly ‘Total Talk’ pieces.

Play the ‘over’ in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

According to long-time VI user and total enthusiast B. Kelly, the system has watched the ‘over’ go 41-20-1 (65%) the last 12 seasons.

It has tempered off a bit but it did go 2-1 last season and I’m including the Giants-Packers ‘over’ in the playoffs when New York was playing its third consecutive road game. I’ve never included the Super Bowl and the above records also leave out the ‘International’ outcomes or this could’ve been in play last week with Jacksonville (London, at Jets, at Steelers).

This week, San Francisco will be playing at Washington and it is the third straight road game for the 49ers after playing at the Cardinals and Colts. The 49ers lost both of those games in overtime by exactly three points and are listed as 10 ½-point underdogs in this spot.

Including this week’s matchup, we have six other games this season that fit the above angle.

Off the Bye

We’ve got four squads playing with rest this week and all of them are listed as home favorites.

New Orleans: If you like to follow trends, you could be leaning to the Saints offense and the high side this Sunday. New Orleans has gone 5-0 both SU and ATS in its last five games off a bye at home and the offense has averaged 41.4 points per game during that span. Also, the ‘over’ is on an 11-4 run for the Saints in the last 15 from the Superdome. Make a note that Detroit stifled New Orleans 28-13 at this venue last season and they also beat them in 2015 (35-27) in the ‘Big Easy’ and from Ford Field in 2014 (24-23) too. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (leg) is listed as ‘probable’ as of Saturday.

Atlanta: Since QB Matt Ryan arrived in 2008, the Falcons have gone 7-2 off the bye in the regular season and the offense has averaged 29.4 PPG in those contests. Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ go 11-1 in its last 12 at home. Miami has watched all four of its games go ‘under’ and the offense has only managed to score three touchdowns this season.

Washington: Since head coach Jay Gruden arrived in the nation’s capital, the Redskins have gone 1-2 off the bye and the ‘under’ is 2-1 in those games.

Denver: The Broncos dropped a 30-27 decision at home to the Chiefs last season but had won their six previous games off the bye. Last year’s result could be an anomaly with Denver holding teams to 18 PPG in those victories.

The four teams on bye in Week 6 include Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas and Seattle.

Divisional Action

The ‘under’ went 2-0 in these matchups last week and the low side is 16-7 (69%) through five weeks.

New England at N.Y. Jets: Even though the Patriots have had trouble scoring (22, 20, 17) in their last three trips to New York, they still have a potent attack when clicking and the Jets are ranked 25th in total defense (354 YPG). New England is ranked last in total defense (447 YPG) but this will be the weakest offense that they’ve faced to date this season. The ‘under’ went 2-0 in last year’s encounters. New York has seen the ‘under’ go 3-2 this season while New England watched its perfect ‘over’ mark (4-1) come to an end last Thursday in Tampa Bay.

Green Bay at Minnesota: The Packers lit up the Vikings 38-25 at home last season and the ‘over’ (44 ½) connected easily but the previous four outcomes resulted in ‘under’ tickets. Green Bay and Minnesota both enter this game with 4-1 ‘over’ records. The Vikings will be playing on a short week after beating the Bears on MNF and Minnesota has only scored a combined 16 points (9, 7) off its first two wins this season. QB Case Keenum gets the start for Minnesota but not having WR Stefon Diggs won’t help his numbers.

L.A. Chargers at Oakland: This series has seen the totals produce a stalemate (3-3) the last three seasons. No early number was posted due to the status of Raiders QB Derek Carr (back) but a few reports have him starting. The Chargers are ranked last in rushing yards allowed (161.2) and I would expect Oakland to attack that weakness Sunday.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the primetime games last week and we might be looking at a couple more low-scoring games this weekend. Including this past Thursday’s result between the Eagles and Panthers, the ‘over’ is 10-7 in the night contests this season.

N.Y. Giants at Denver: This total has dropped nearly two points at every betting shop and I really hope you win your early wagers on Sunday so you don’t have to chase on this matchup. The Giants are decimated on both sides of the field and I don’t see how the offense is going to move the ball against a Denver defense that is ranked first in yards allowed (260.8) and seventh in scoring (18.5 PPG). The Broncos should get extra possessions in this matchup but the offense (16 PPG) hasn’t looked sharp in their last two games.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: This is another game where you might want to sit out. Titans QB Marcus Mariota (hamstring) missed last week and his status is up in the air again. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings between the pair and the Titans scored 33, 24 and 26 with Mariota and 17 without him. Make a note that the Colts (2-3) haven’t won back-to-back games this season and are averaging 13.3 PPG in their losses compared to 28.5 PPG in the wins.

Fearless Predictions

Caught more than a few breaks last week and sometimes that’s what it takes to get on the right track. With that effort ($190) we slightly trimmed the overall deficit ($270) on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-Arizona 45 ½

Best Under: Green Bay-Minnesota 44 ½

Best Team Total: New Orleans Over 26 ½
Over 38 ½ New England-N.Y. Jets
Under 55 ½ Pittsburgh-Kansas City
Under 48 N.Y. Giants-Denver

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 6 Essentials
October 14, 2017

No time to waste, let's get right into thought process mode in handicapping Week 6's offerings:

Sunday, Oct. 15

Browns at Texans: It took four games for Hue Jackson to decide rookie QB DeShone Kizer needed to take a step back and watch someone else work. The expectation here is that he'll eventuallly get the job back from Kevin Hogan to help the Browns determine whether they need to draft another quarterback next April, but for now, the second-year ex-Stanford starter gets the ball. He gets his passes out quicker and moved Cleveland better than Kizer against the Jets, but the franchise's 28th starting QB since 1999 isn't the answer either.

His arm isn't strong and his delivery isn't fluid, but his brain should make him a more than serviceable backup for years to come. The Browns need more than that. The Texans need to prove they can beat teams being led by backup QBs in the wake of season-ending injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Although banged up, Jadeveon Clowney (knee), Benardick McKinney (hip) and Johnathan Joseph (groin) are all set to be a part of a revamped defense that needs to try and succeed going forward without a number of their most gifted assets.

Cleveland will try and slow down rookie QB Deshaun Watson, who has thrown 11 touchdown passes over his last three games while running for an additional one. The Texans have averaged over 41 points per game but are just 1-2 in that span, defeating Tennessee but losing to New England and Kansas City. The winless Browns have only topped 20 points once this season and have only once in their last 24 games. They've lost 15 straight road games, last winning over two years ago (Oct. 11, 2015) in Baltimore.

Patriots at Jets: I don't know whether it's more unlikely that the entire AFC East is at .500 or better entering Week 6 or that these teams are currently tied, but the winner here gets to stay in first place. Shockingly, there's a heavy favorite as to who that will be, but the Jets are almost certain to be an underdog in every remaining game this season, so it's a role they've grown accustomed to even though they come off a win as a road favorite in Cleveland.

New York has won three in a row in a season where its projected win total closed at 3.5 at Westgate, riding a defense that has pitched first-half shutouts in two of the last three weeks and has stifled opponents in the red zone. Of course, the quarterbacks they've faced include luminaries Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles, Kizer and Hogan, so we'll see if they can have similar success against Tom Brady. New England has dominated this for the majority of the past two decades, winning 23 of the last 30 meetings.

Bill Belichick is 11-2 against New York since his team's 2010 playoff loss, a run that opened with a 45-3 win and featured a 41-3 rout in the most recent meeting last Christmas Eve. That was only one of two covers New England has recorded over its last 10 games against the Jets. The Pats have prevailed in 10 straight road games (9-1 ATS), only failing to cover in last season's 22-17 Nov. 27 win over these Jets. Tom Brady (shoulder) and Rob Gronkowski (thigh) will play.

Dolphins at Falcons: Adam Gase's team has won five of their last seven games outside south Florida, but find themselves in a major offensive rut, having scored a single offensive touchdown in three of their four games and getting shutout by the Saints in the outlier. Jay Ajayi has played through a nagging knee injury, while Jay Cutler's passing yardage has decreased every week thus far. That's likely to change this week since the bar is set so low (92 yards), unless he struggles so much that some Dolphins fans get their wish and Matt Moore gets a shot. It won't help that WR DeVante Parker is unlikely to play due to an ankle injury. Offensive line issues have certainly played a key role in the regression, so it will be interesting to see how the team responds following the controversy that cost line coach Chris Foerster his job.

Atlanta, meanwhile, comes off a drama-free bye week that allowed the offense to catch get back in the lab after being held to a season-low 17 points in a loss to Buffalo, their second-lowest point total since 2015. Steve Sarkisian's offense failed to score in the first and third quarter against Buffalo and turned it over three times. There were two other fumbles that they recovered, so it was a sloppy performance that continued a theme since Matt Ryan threw three picks in a 30-26 win at Detroit. The reigning NFL MVP will have Julio Jones back in the mix as his main target after he left in the first half of the Buffalo loss due to a hip flexor injury. No. 2 WR Mohamed Sanu still needs a few more weeks to heal his injured hamstring, which could give other weapons like Andre Roberts, Justin Hardy and TE Austin Hooper more targets. The Dolphins list CB Byron Marshall as questionable, while Atlanta will have speedy playmaker Vic Beasley back to help make up for pass rusher Courtney Upshaw's absence.

Lions at Saints: Detroit has won each of the last three seasons, averaging 29 points per game while outrushing New Orleans and applying more defensive pressure. The last two wins have come in New Orleans, which is where nine of the last 12 matchups have taken place. The Saints have only won once in Detroit in the last 25 years, rolling 42-7 behind Drew Brees back in 2008 against a team that ultimately went winless. Matthew Stafford was drafted No. 1 the next year, lost his first two matchups against Brees in '11, including dropping an NFC wild card game, but has since dominated the series. He popped up on the injury report with an ailing quad and hurt ankle, but is expected to play.

The Saints avoided committing a turnover in any of their first four games, the first time Brees has managed that in his career, so they'll be looking to secure a winning record this deep into a season for the first time since opening 5-0 in 2013. Tackles Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat each have a chance to play following the layoff, which would definitely help the cause against a Lions defensive front loaded with athletes. The best of the pass-rushers, Ziggy Ansah, is listed as questionable with a lingering knee issue he's been able to play through. Only LB Paul Worrilow has been ruled out for Detroit.

Packers at Vikings: Case Keenum gets another turn under center, coming in 2-2 in games where he's had to step in for Sam Bradford. The latest pinch-hitting appearance was his first coming in off the bench, as he helped pull out Monday night's 20-17 win in Chicago after Bradford couldn't continue. He's 1-2 in starts and will have to make due with out top wideout Stefon Diggs, who won't play due to a groin injury that really limited the Vikings' passing attack against the Bears. Safety Andrew Sendejo is also a key question mark for Minnesota, while guard Nick Easton won't play.

The Packers are going to be thin in the back with safety Morgan Burnett sidelined, won't have LB Joe Thomas and list LB Ahmad Brooks and CB Kevin King as doubtful. Davon House should play, but if he suffers a setback, depth in the secondary will be scarce. Aaron Rodgers rescued a win in Dallas and is hoping to have top tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari back to provide even more protection. RB Aaron Jones has emerged in Ty Montogmery's absence, but the receiver turned back is hopeful to return from suffering broken ribs. Jordy Nelson's back was also a concern in practice this week, so how much he can do remains to be seen. Green Bay is 11-3-1 SU against Minnesota over the last 14 meetings and haven't lost by more than a single possession in any of those games.

Bears at Ravens: The other team facing a short week situation also has to overcome a rookie quarterback making his first road start. Mitch Trubisky threw his first career touchdown pass on a ball that probably should've been intercepted and threw two picks he wasn't as fortunate on, the last of which ended up setting Minnesota's game-winning field goal. His athleticism still made him an improvement over Mike Glennon since he created offense with his ability to buy time and move the pocket, but he's not going to have the impact Watson has had with Houston.

Baltimore has a veteran defense that has already posted one shutout (at Cincinnati) and picked off rookie DeShone Kizer three times in his road debut, so defensive coordinator Dean Pees is sure to challenge Trubisky. He'll probably have to do so without DT Brandon Williams and OLB Tim Williams, both of whom are doubtful. Corner Jimmy Smith is going to play, but DT Carl Davis is questionable. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Ravens are 14-1 at home vs. rookie QBs in their 22-year history, losing to Jake Plummer back in 1997. They're 9-0 under John Harbaugh, who will have to stay perfect despite missing a pair offensive starters in RB Terrance West and lineman Matt Skura. Buck Allen and Alex Collins will continue to get carries.

49ers at Redskins: Kyle Shanahan encounters former pupil Kirk Cousins for the second time in a regular-season game, winning as offensive coordinator in OT when Cousins threw a walk-off pick-six in OT against the Falcons in 2015. He's now looking for his first win as a head coach, having lost four games by a combined 11 points. The last two losses have come in OT, and the schedule has done him no favors as this is the team's fourth road game in five weeks and third in succession. The team released veteran LB NaVorro Bowman, which frees up the middle for rookie Reuben Foster, who seeks to return from an ankle injury. Safety Eric Reid could also return from a knee injury that's forced him to miss the last few games.

Although Washington comes off an early bye week that it badly needed, the extra time off wasn't enough to ensure the healthy return of numerous key figures. Left tackle Trent Williams, still limping around due to a knee injury, is questionable. Top corner Josh Norman will sit due to his rib injury, DB Deshazor Everett is doubtful and LB Zach Brown is questionable. Considering the next five weeks feature road games at Philadelphia, Seattle and New Orleans in addition to home dates against the Cowboys and Vikings, handling business against one of the NFL's three winless squads at home is a must.

Rams at Jaguars: One of the NFL's top young defenses awaits the arrival of a new-look attack that has made the league take notice over the first five gaems. The winner of this L.A./Jacksonville matchup will unexpectedly move to 4-2, atop their division, even if likely not in sole possession of first place. Considering the Jags never won a fourth game last season and L.A. stopped at five, losing 11 of 12, it's a big deal to take a significant step forward into contention. Only the Chiefs (32.8) are averaging more points per game than the Rams (30.4), while Jacksonville (16.6) surrenders fewer points than anyone but Buffalo (14.8), so this should be determined by the team that best imposes its will.

Both teams are relatively helathy, particularly in their areas of strength. The Rams are a bit banged up in their back seven with LB/S Mark Barron and DB Lamarcus Joyner each questionable and CB Troy Hill considered doubtful to play. Jacksonville has struggled to replace the explosiveness of projected big-play WRs Allen Robinson and Dede Westbrook, who have been out since the opening week, while center Brandon Linder will miss his second straight game due to an undisclosed illness. Tyler Shatley filled in for the upset at Pittsburgh and will make his sixth start here. This will be just the fourth-ever meeting between these franchises. The Rams are 1-3, but the Jaguars won in OT in the lone meeting in Jacksonville back on Oct. 18, 2009.

"The wiseguys hit Jacksonville and Tampa Bay early, and hard. Those were bad numbers," Oddsmaker.eu spokesman Scott Cooley said. "Probably should have opened each at -2 or even -3. Trying to entice some money on the other sides."

Buccaneers at Cardinals: The game above involves two of the NFL's biggest surprises. This one is all about avoiding becoming one of the most disappointing. Arizona is already under .500, while Tampa Bay arrives 2-2, owning wins over the Giants and Bears, who enter Sunday's game a combined 1-9. The Bucs will be playing just their second road game and are making their only trip of the season to the west coast, so it's fortunate that even with no bye due to Week 1's hurricane-related cancellation, they're coming in off their longest layoff. Tampa Bay fell 19-14 against the Patriots two Thursdays ago and should be healthier. Although LB Kwon Alexander and safety Keith Tandy remain out, fellow starting LB Lavonte David and S T.J. Ward are likley to return. DE Robert Ayers is also back, so Tampa Bay is healthier than its been in a few weeks. It also has a new kicker, replacing Nick Folk with Patrick Murray, back for a second tour with the Bucs after injuries have shelved him the past few seasons.

Jameis Winston threw four interceptions and lost a fumble in last season's 40-7 to the Cardinals, so you know he's had this game circled. He hasn't been intercepted in three of his four starts, but he was picked off in his only road game. Patrick Peterson (quad) should play despite coming in questionable, but DT Corey Peters (knee), DT Robert Nkemdiche (calf) and LB Karlos Dansby (hamstring) are all questionable. Arizona is hoping a 34-7 loss in Philadelphia last Sunday was rock bottom, since they're still hopeful that David Johnson can return by early December and help the Cardinals make a playoff run. Adrian Peterson, acquired for a conditional draft pick earlier in the week, will debut and should get early-down carries with Andre Ellington getting third-down work. With a trip to London scheduled for next week for a divisional game against the Rams, this feels like a must-win for Arizona.

Steelers at Chiefs: Pittsburgh was favored to win the Super Bowl by Westgate entering Week 5, but its awful loss to the Jaguars dropped it to fourth at 7-to-1, coming in behind New England (9/2), Green Bay (5/1) and Kansas City (6/1). This Chiefs team is one it will likely have to get through again come postseason, making this potential preview the top matchup we're getting this weekend. Whether it lives up to expectations will depend on whether Ben Roethlisberger can rebound from a five-interception day against Jacksonville. The future Hall of Fame QB has played considerably better at home than he has on the road over the past few seasons, so Arrowhead isn't the ideal venue for him to bounce back in. He's 2-1 in Kansas City, leading the Steelers to an 18-16 win in the AFC Divisional playoffs in the most recent meeting back in mid-January, setting up six field goals. He's thrown for 815 yards with four TD passes and 4 INTs in three career starts there. The return of RT Marcus Gilbert should help, especially if LG Ramon Foster can play after failing to practice all week due to a back issue.

Kansas City's ability to pressure requires all hands on deck for the Steelers, especially since Justin Logan, Dee Ford and Bennie Logan will all play this week. The Chiefs got great news regarding skill players Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Albert Wilson too, so Alex Smith will have all his weapons to work with. The offensive line will need to be shuffled again since center Mitch Morse (foot) and guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (knee) will miss this key contest. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt leads the NFL in rushing yardage (609) and key rushing categories like yards after contact (338) and forced missed tackles (35).

Chargers at Raiders: Derek Carr is set to return after breaking bones in his back two weeks ago in Denver, which means a merciful end to the temporary E.J. Manuel era. In fairness, the Raiders didn't fall off a cliff due to their QB since Carr was present for the Sunday night debacle in Landover to close out September that started their current three-game losing streak. Oakland has been outscored 73-37 and never really been in any of the games, falling behind almost immediately. Amari Cooper caught one pass for 28 yards last week and has gotten in his own head, so the Raiders badly need to turn this home game into a revival. Super Bowl odds dipped to 30/1 this week, the lowest they've been all season.

By comparison, the Chargers are at 300/1 despite finally picking up their first win by outlasting the Giants 27-22. They've faced the two teams that already have compiled five wins and also were forced to visit Denver, so it's hard to lump this team in among the league's bottom-five even though they reside there record-wise. Not having any homefield advantage at Carson's Stub Hub Center means they'll be fine in Oakland, or even Santa Clara if the NFL winds up moving the game there due to air quality. Philip Rivers has dropped four consecutive games over the last two years, losing the last three contests by three points each time. The expectation is that he'll finally have rookie receiver Mike Williams in the mix to throw to, which gives him a full compliment of weapons to work with against a depleted Raiders secondary.

Giants at Broncos: NBC certainly didn't envision an 0-5 team being a part of this one and had no way to forecast such a depleted version of the Giants visiting Invesco Field at Mile High. WRs Odell Beckham, Jr., Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard join center Weston Richburg on the sidelines for the offense here, while DE Olivier Vernon (ankle) is hurt, CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is suspended and safety Landon Collins is questionable due to an ankle injury. New York hasn't won in Denver since 1989, losing its last three meetings.

Denver comes off a bye, so complacency could be a factor to deal with. It's up to first-year head coach Vance Joseph to prove he can keep his team focused since the Broncos' next three games all come on the road against the Chargers, Chiefs and Eagles before they return home for another Sunday night date (Nov. 12) against the Patriots.

Monday, Oct. 9

Colts at Titans: It sounds like we won't know about Marcus Mariota's availability due to an injured hamstring until closer to kickoff. He's hopeful that he'll be able to participate and did work all week that suggests there's a realistic possibility he'll return and this isn't just a smokescreen to force the Colts to prepare for him instead of putting in more work on backup Matt Cassel. Save your jokes about that being light duty, though they do ring true given his showing in Sunday's loss in Miami, an effort that displayed the depths bad quarterback play can sink to. Even though it would potentially be easier for Cassel to find a rhythm at home, the Titans badly need their franchise QB back for a key divisional game. LT Taylor Lewan should play after leaving the Dolphins loss early due to an injured knee.

Indianapolis is looking for consecutive wins, something it managed only once last season. Jacoby Brissett has settled in as the starter, throwing for a career-high 314 yards in Sunday's OT win over San Francisco. He's 2-2 in his starts, throwing a pair of TD passes, three interceptions and has rushed for three scores. He's not Andrew Luck, but he has displayed growth since arriving in town in early September. Tight end Jack Doyle caught 15 passes on 20 targets from him before missing last week's game with a concussion, but he could clear protocol this week given the extra day. This is arguably the healthiest Indy has been all season, though Andrew Luck is likely still weeks away.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Patriots rookie Langi hospitalized after car accident
October 14, 2017

New England Patriots rookie defensive end/linebacker Harvey Langi and his wife were involved in a car accident Friday night when they were rear-ended by another vehicle, the team announced Saturday.

The accident involved serious injuries but they are not considered to be life-threatening, a person close to the 25-year-old Langi told ESPN. Five people reportedly were hospitalized following the chain-reaction crash involving three cars.

On the official injury report, the Patriots listed Langi as out for Sunday's game at the New York Jets with a back injury.

"We are aware of the traffic accident involving Harvey Langi and a passenger last night in Foxborough," the Patriots said in a statement. "... Our thoughts are with Harvey, the Langi family and those who sustained injuries in last night's accident."

--Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota is listed as questionable for Monday night's game against the Indianapolis Colts after missing last week's game against the Miami Dolphins with a hamstring injury.

Mariota, 23, was a limited participant in the team's practices this week and is a game-time decision. He was injured during the Titans' game against the Houston Texans on Oct. 1, a game Tennessee lost 57-14.

"It is going to come down to a lot of things," Titans coach Mike Mularkey told reporters. "It might be a game-time decision. Can he play and not risk himself further injury? That's the biggest thing."

--Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the New York Jets in East Rutherford, N.J., because of a concussion.

Gilmore, 27, had not been on the team's injury report and was a full participant at practice this past week.

ESPN reports the former Pro Bowler has been experiencing headaches ever since banging helmets with Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans during the Patriots' 19-14 win in Tampa on Oct. 5.

--The Indianapolis Colts placed starting right guard Jack Mewhort on the injured reserve list with a knee injury.

The 6-foot-6, 305-pound Mewhort aggravated a knee injury in Friday's practice, coach Chuck Pagano told reporters. Mewhort will have to undergo another surgery after his knee flared up during walk-throughs.

"He's been battling through (since) training camp," Pagano said. "Tough deal. Hate it for Jack and his teammates hate it. Next man up. ... He's going to have to have another procedure. We're going to miss him."

--The Jets waived wide receiver Jalin Marshall one day before their game against the rival Patriots with first place in the AFC East on the line.

Marshall's suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs ended this week. He was suspended last March 7 for the first four games of the 2017 season for the violation.

Marshall joined the Jets as an undrafted free agent on April 30, 2016. He caught 14 passes on 23 targets for 162 yards and two touchdowns over 10 games during his rookie season in 2016.

--The San Francisco 49ers promoted tight end Cole Hikutini to the active roster from the team's practice squad.

Hikutini, 23, fills the final spot on the roster that was vacated when the 49ers parted ways with veteran linebacker NaVorro Bowman on Friday.

The 6-foot-4, 247-pound Hikutini originally signed with the 49ers as an undrafted rookie free agent on May 4. He was waived on Sept. 2 and signed to the practice squad the following day.

--The NFL players' union said it will request a hearing of the full panel of judges with the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans on behalf of Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.

On Thursday, Elliott had his preliminary injunction thrown out and the 5th Circuit Court ordered the case to be dismissed. Elliott was appealing his suspension of six games for violating the league's personal conduct policy because of an alleged domestic violence incident.

The appeals court in New Orleans voted 2-1 in favor of the NFL, which requested an emergency hearing after a district court in Texas blocked the suspension last month. The appeals court ordered the Texas court to dismiss Elliott's case.

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 6
October 14, 2017

Week 5 Record: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
Overall Record: 13-17 SU, 13-17 ATS

Patriots (-9 ½, 48) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

New England
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 9/2

Not many people would have bet that the Patriots would be tied atop the AFC East through five games with the Bills and Jets. New England rebounded from a home loss to Carolina to hold off Tampa Bay, 19-14 as 3 ½-point road favorites. Tight end Rob Gronkowski sat out with a thigh injury, while the Patriots failed to reach the 20-point mark for only the third time since the start of 2016. Gronkowski is expected to play on Sunday, while quarterback Tom Brady is nursing a left shoulder sprain, but he will make the start. The Patriots have failed to cover in their last four trips to Met Life Stadium, while holding off the Jets, 22-17 as 8 ½-point favorites last season.

New York
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

Who knows how long the Jets will keep winning, but New York has rebounded from an 0-2 start to pull off three consecutive victories. After routing the Dolphins in Week 3, the Jets are coming off consecutive three-point wins, including a 17-14 triumph at Cleveland last week. The last time the Jets won at least four straight games came in 2015, which included an overtime victory over the Patriots. New York’s defense has stepped up during this hot streak by allowing 40 points, which is a major improvement after yielding 45 points in a Week 2 blowout loss at Oakland.

Best Bet: Patriots -9 ½

Dolphins at Falcons (-12 ½, 45 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Miami
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Dolphins’ defense is doing a great job at keeping the team in the game, but the offense isn’t pulling its weight. Miami has yielded 20 points or fewer in all four contests, while the offense has managed three touchdowns this season. In last week’s 16-10 victory over the Titans, the defense reached the end zone on a fumble return for a score, while Jay Cutler threw only his third touchdown pass of the season to Jarvis Landry. Under Adam Gase, the Dolphins have put together a 5-4 ATS record as a road underdog, while winning five of their last six regular season away games.

Atlanta
Record: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The defending NFC champions are back from the bye week after getting tripped up Buffalo in Week 4. The Falcons will have two of their stars back in the lineup as wide receiver Julio Jones and linebacker Vic Beasley were both nursing injuries. Jones has yet to score a touchdown this season, as the Falcons look to snap a four-game home losing streak to AFC opponents since 2015. Atlanta had registered 10 consecutive home OVERS prior to hitting the UNDER in the 23-17 defeat to the Bills on a 48 total.

Best Bet: Dolphins +12 ½

Lions at Saints (-4, 50 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Detroit
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Lions have dropped two of their last three games since a 2-0 start, coming off a 27-24 home defeat to the Panthers last Sunday. Detroit has seen more success away from Ford Field this season by compiling a 2-0 road mark, while limiting the Giants and Vikings to 17 points combined in those victories. The Lions have taken care of business against the Saints the last three seasons by going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the past three meetings, including consecutive victories at the Superdome as an underdog.

New Orleans
Record: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Saints return from the bye week after blowing out the Dolphins in London, 20-0 to easily cash as four-point favorites. New Orleans’ defense was terrible the first two weeks by giving up 65 points in a pair of losses to Minnesota and New England, but rebounded by allowing only 13 points against New Orleans and Miami in games away from the Superdome. The Saints are listed as a home favorite for the first time this season, as New Orleans has struggled in this role by compiling a 4-7-1 ATS mark since 2015.

Best Bet: Lions +4

Packers (-3, 45 ½) at Vikings – 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay
Record: 4-1 SU, 3-2 SU, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

The Packers picked up their first road win of the season last week in comeback fashion by knocking off the Cowboys, 35-31 as two-point underdogs. Green Bay erased a 15-point deficit to beat Dallas for the second straight time at AT&T Stadium, as Aaron Rodgers has thrown 10 touchdown passes in the past three games, including three against the Cowboys. The Packers split the two meetings with the Vikings last season, which included a 17-14 setback at Minnesota as 1 ½-point favorites.

Minnesota
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1

The Vikings have a quick turnaround after edging the Bears last Monday night, 20-17, but Minnesota failed to cover as 3 ½-point road favorites. Minnesota will play its third consecutive divisional contest, while attempting to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. Case Keenum will get the start at quarterback in place of Sam Bradford, while star wide receiver Stefon Diggs will miss the contest with a groin injury. After posting a 9-3 home record from 2015 through Week 5 of 2016, the Vikings have split their last eight home contests.

Best Bet: Vikings +3

Rams at Jaguars (-2 ½, 42) – 4:05 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Rams begin a brutal travel stretch with four of the next five games away from the L.A. Coliseum. Los Angeles squandered a 10-0 lead in last Sunday’s 16-10 home defeat to Seattle to fall into a first-place tie with the Seahawks atop the NFC West. The Rams turned the ball over five times, including a season-high two interceptions thrown by Jared Goff. L.A. dropped to 0-3 ATS the last three games in the favorite role, but the Rams have covered in their only opportunity in the underdog role at Dallas in a Week 4 victory.

Jacksonville
Record: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Jaguars have been a pleasant surprise this season, but are still searching for consistency. Jacksonville has yet to win consecutive games, while coming off an impressive effort in a 30-9 blowout of Pittsburgh as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Jags picked off Ben Roethlisberger five times, while taking two of those interceptions back for touchdowns. Leonard Fournette busted off a 90-yard touchdown in the final two minutes for Jacksonville, as the rookie running back has reached the end zone in four of five games. Since December 2015, the Jaguars own a dreadful 0-4 ATS record in the favorite role.

Best Bet: Rams +2 ½

Steelers at Chiefs (-4, 47) – 4:25 PM EST

Pittsburgh
Record: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 5-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Steelers are going the wrong way following a 2-0 start by losing two of their last three games. Following a dismantling of the rival Ravens, Pittsburgh failed to reach the end zone in a 21-point home setback to Jacksonville, while turning the ball over five times. The good news is the Pittsburgh defense yielded 313 yards, which included a late 90-yard touchdown run when the game was out of reach. Pittsburgh is listed in the underdog role for the first time this season, while edging Kansas City in the divisional playoffs last season as 2 ½-point ‘dogs, 18-16.

Kansas City
Record: 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, 4-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 5/1

The only team that remains unbeaten after five weeks is the Chiefs, who cruised past the Texans last Sunday night, 42-34. The final score was not indicative of how well Kansas City played, as the Chiefs allowed two touchdowns in the final 68 seconds of regulation. Alex Smith still hasn’t thrown an interception yet for Kansas City, as the Chiefs’ quarterback threw for 324 yards and three touchdowns to move to an 11/0 touchdown to interception ratio. Since getting blown out at Pittsburgh last October, the Chiefs have won 15 of their last 17 regular season games, but Kansas City is 4-4 ATS in its past eight regular season contests at Arrowhead Stadium.

Best Bet: Steelers +4

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends for this weekend:

— Cleveland is 3-12 vs spread in its last fifteen games.

— Chiefs covered 10 of their last 11 games.

— Denver is 6-1 vs spread in game after its last seven byes.

— Falcons are 10-20 vs spread in last 30 games as a favorite.

— Arizona is 3-13 vs spread in its last 16 games.

— Houston is 8-1 in last nine games as a non-divisional home favorite.

****************

Armadillo: Saturday's six-pack

More NFL trends for Week 6 games this weekend:

— Minnesota is 14-5 vs spread in its last 19 home games.

— Saints are 6-1-1 vs spread in their last eight post-bye games.

— Redskins are 2-7 vs spread in their last nine post-bye games.

— Patriots are 2-7 in last nine games as a divisional road favorite.

— Buccaneers are 6-2 in last eight games as a road un

— Chargers are 13-3-4 vs spread as a divisional road underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............23 - 23 - 1....50.00%....-11.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00.......+10.00

10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00.........+10.00

10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50

10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00

10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50

10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals.........................9 - 7 - 1............+ 6.50...........6 - 7............-8.50................-2.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 2.................................-10.00

Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0.................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0.................................+5.00



SUNDAY, OCTOBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at MIN 01:00 PM

MIN +3.0

O 46.0

DET at NO 01:00 PM

DET +4.5

O 50.0

MIA at ATL 01:00 PM

MIA +13.5

U 46.0

CLE at HOU 01:00 PM

HOU -7.5

U 46.5

NE at NYJ 01:00 PM

NE -9.0 *****

U 48.0 *****

CHI at BAL 01:00 PM

BAL -6.0 *****

U 39.5

SF at WAS 01:00 PM

SF +10.5 *****

O 46.0

LAR at JAC 04:05 PM

JAC -1.5 *****

U 42.0 *****

TB at ARI 04:05 PM

ARI +2.0

U 46.0

PIT at KC 04:25 PM

PIT +3.5 *****

O 46.0

LAC at OAK 04:25 PM

LAC +3.0

O 48.0


Good Luck All !

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Play:

NYG at DEN 08:30 PM

DEN -13.5 *****

U 38.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Today, Week 6
October 15, 2017

SCOREBOARD


Monday, Oct. 16

Indianapolis at Tennessee, 8:30 p.m. EDT. The Colts (2-3) have won 11 straight in the series and 16 of the past 17. Colts coach Chuck Pagano is 10-0 against the Titans (2-3). Colts RB Frank Gore ranks seventh in NFL history with 13,304 yards rushing and has four TDs rushing in his past three games at the Titans. Titans QB Marcus Mariota has 889 yards passing with six TDs and two interceptions in his past three games against the Colts, but has been bothered by a hamstring injury. Titans RB DeMarco Murray has a TD in his past three games against Colts with 264 yards from scrimmage.

---

STARS

Passing

- Deshaun Watson, Texans, finished 17 for 29 for 225 yards with three touchdown passes and an interception in Houston's 33-17 win over Cleveland. Watson has thrown at least three touchdown passes in three consecutive games and is the first rookie in NFL history to accomplish the feat. Watson has 12 passing touchdowns in the past three games, the most by a rookie in any three-game span. Watson has 15 passing touchdowns, the most by a rookie in his team's first six games of a season.

- Carson Palmer, Cardinals, was 18 for 22 for 283 yards with three touchdown passes and an interception in Arizona's 38-33 win over Tampa Bay.

- Kirk Cousins, Redskins, was 25 for 37 for 330 yards and two touchdowns and an interception in Washington's 26-24 win over San Francisco.

---

Rushing

- Le'Veon Bell, Steelers, had 32 carries for 179 yards and a touchdown in Pittsburgh's 19-13 victory over Kansas City.

- Jordan Howard, Bears, had 36 carries for 167 yards in Chicago's 27-24 overtime win at Baltimore.

- Adrian Peterson, Cardinals, had 26 carries for 134 yards and two touchdowns in Arizona's 38-33 win over Tampa Bay. It was Peterson's first game with the team after being obtained from New Orleans on Tuesday.

- Leonard Fournette, Jaguars, had 21 carries for 130 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown in Jacksonville's 27-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Fournette, who had a 90-yard touchdown run in the Jaguars' Week 5 win at Pittsburgh, is the first rookie in NFL history with a touchdown run of at least 75 yards in consecutive games.

- Jay Ajayi, Dolphins, had 26 carries for 130 yards in Miami's 20-17 win over Atlanta.

- Todd Gurley, Rams, had 23 carries for 116 yards in Los Angeles' 27-17 win over Jacksonville.

- Mark Ingram, Saints, had 25 carries for 114 yards and two touchdowns in New Orleans' 52-38 win over Detroit.

---

Receiving

- Antonio Brown, Steelers, had eight catches for 155 yards, including a 51-yard touchdown in Pittsburgh's 19-13 win over Kansas City. Brown, who has 9,077 receiving yards in 107 games, tied Randy Moss (107) for the fourth-fewest games played to reach 9,000 receiving yards in NFL history.

- Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals, had 10 catches for 138 yards and a touchdown in Arizona's 38-33 win over Tampa Bay.

- Chris Thompson, Redskins, had four receptions for 105 yards in Washington's 26-24 win over San Francisco.

- Adam Thielen, Vikings, had nine carries for 97 yards in Minnesota's 23-10 win over Green Bay.

- Marvin Jones and Golden Tate, Lions. Jones had six catches for 96 yards and a touchdown and Tate had seven catches for 96 yards and a touchdown in Detroit's 52-38 loss to New Orleans.

- Rob Gronkowski, Patriots, had six catches for 83 yards and two touchdowns in New England's 24-17 win over the New York Jets.

---

Special Teams

- Pharoh Cooper and Malcolm Brown, Rams. Cooper returned the opening kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown and Brown returned a blocked punt 8 yards to the end zone for a touchdown in Los Angeles' 27-17 over Jacksonville.

- Bobby Rainey and Michael Campanaro, Ravens. Rainey returned a kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown and Campanaro returned a punt 77 yards for a touchdown in Baltimore's 27-24 overtime loss to Chicago.

- Jamal Agnew, Lions, returned a punt 74 yards for a touchdown in Detroit's 52-38 loss to New Orleans.

---

Defense

- Kenny Vaccaro, Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan, Saints. Vaccaro recovered a fumble in the end zone for a touchdown and Lattimore returned an interception 27 yards for a TD. Jordan intercepted a pass in the end zone for a score in New Orleans' 52-38 win over Detroit. The Saints set a franchise record with three defensive touchdowns in a game.

- Johnathan Joseph, Texans, had two interceptions, returning one of them 82 yards for a touchdown in Houston's 33-17 win over Cleveland.

- Adrian Amos, Bears, returned an interception 90 yards for a touchdown in Chicago's 27-24 overtime win over Baltimore.

- Jason McCourty, Browns, returned an interception 56 yards for a touchdown in Cleveland's 33-17 loss to Houston.

- Lavonte David, Buccaneers, returned a fumble 21 yards for a touchdown in Tampa Bay's 38-33 loss to Arizona.

- Harrison Smith, Vikings, had 1+ sacks, an interception and two pass breakups in Minnesota's 23-10 win over Green Bay.

- A'Shawn Robinson, Lions, returned an interception 2 yards for a touchdown in Detroit's 52-38 loss to New Orleans.

---

STREAKS & STATS

Carson Palmer three touchdown passes, running back Adrian Peterson rushed for two touchdowns in his Arizona debut, and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had a touchdown catch in the Cardinals' 38-33 win against Tampa Bay. Palmer has accounted for 302 touchdowns (294 passing, eight rushing), Peterson has 104 touchdowns (99 rushing, five receiving) and Fitzgerald has 107 touchdown catches. They are the only QB-RB-WR trio of teammates in NFL history to account for at least 300, 100 and 100 total touchdowns, respectively. Fitzgerald, who has 14,854 receiving yards, surpassed Steve Smith, Sr. (14,731) for the seventh-most receiving yards in NFL history. Fitzgerald's 14,854 receiving yards trail only Hall of Famer Jerry Rice (19,247 with San Francisco) for the most receiving yards by a player with a single team. Peterson, who has 50 games with at least 100 rushing yards, is the ninth player in NFL history with at least 100 rushing yards in 50 games. ...

The 49ers dropped to 0-6 with a 26-24 loss to Washington. San Francisco is the first team in NFL history to fall by three points or fewer in five consecutive games. The Browns fell to 0-6 with a 33-17 loss to Houston and they lost their 16th in a row on the road. ...

The Patriots have won six of the past seven meetings with the Jets and 11 of the past 13 after a 24-17 win on Sunday. They have also won 11 straight road games, the second-best streak in team history since they won 12 in a row from 2006-08.

---

MILESTONES

New England quarterback Tom Brady passed for 257 yards with two touchdowns in the Patriots' 24-17 win at the New York Jets. Brady, who has 187 regular-season victories, surpassed Hall of Famer Brett Favre (186) and Peyton Manning (186) for the most regular-season victories by a starting quarterback in NFL history. Brady has 212 wins (including the postseason), the most by a starting quarterback. Brady threw two touchdown passes to tight end Rob Gronkowski in the win. Brady and Gronkowski have connected on 71 touchdown passes, the second most from a quarterback to a tight end in NFL history. Only Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates (85) of the Los Angeles Chargers have more. ...

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees passed for 186 yards with two touchdowns in the Saints' 52-38 win over Detroit. Brees has 55,084 passing yards with the Saints and is only the fourth quarterback in NFL history to have at least 55,000 passing yards with a team. He joins Favre (61,655 with Green Bay) and Dan Marino (61,361 with Miami) and Brady (63,541 with New England) as the only quarterbacks to accomplish the feat. ...

Los Angeles Rams kick returner Pharoh Cooper returned the game's opening kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown and Jacksonville rookie running back Leonard Fournette had a 75-yard touchdown run on the Jaguars' first play from scrimmage in the Rams' 27-17 win, marking the first game in the Super Bowl era with two touchdowns of at least 75 yards in the first 30 seconds of a game.

---

SIDELINED

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in Green Bay's 23-10 loss to Minnesota and could miss the rest of the season. Backup cornerback Quinten Rollins (ankle) was also lost during the game. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga (concussion) was knocked out of action, and left tackle David Bakhtiari's hamstring injury flared up. Vikings wide receiver Michael Floyd left the game with a calf injury. ...

Jameis Winston left Tampa Bay's game at Arizona in the second quarter because of a right shoulder injury. Lions safety Glover Quin left the game against New Orleans to be evaluated for a head injury in the second half. Offensive tackle Greg Robinson limped off the field in the third quarter. ...

The Ravens lost another receiver when Breshad Perriman was lost to a second-quarter concussion. Tight end Maxx Williams also hurt his ankle while losing a fumble and did not return. ...

Pittsburgh linebacker Vince Williams had a pair of sacks in Kansas City, but left in the second half with a hip injury. The Steelers also lost right tackle Marcus Gilbert, who had missed three weeks with a hamstring injury, in the first half after he aggravated it.

---

SPEAKING

''It's tough. We experienced that feeling before in the Super Bowl.'' - Atlanta linebacker Vic Beasley Jr. after the Falcons blew a 17-0 halftime lead and lost 20-17 to the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.

---

''We did a lot of dumb things, but fortunately our defense did a lot of good things. I'm trying to be happy today, but it's hard.'' - Coach Sean Payton after his Saints won their third straight game, but nearly blew a huge lead before beating Detroit 52-38.

[StarDust Bum]

Broncos QB Siemian sidelined by shoulder injury
October 15, 2017

DENVER -- Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian left Denver's Sunday night against the New York Giants late in the second quarter with a left (non-throwing) shoulder injury.

His backup, Brock Osweiler, came in for the Broncos to finish out the second quarter, but Siemian returned to play when the game resumed following halftime.

Siemian appeared to hurt his shoulder when he dived to try to tackle Janoris Jenkins near the end of the New York cornerback's 43-yard interception return for a touchdown.

Siemian landed hard on his left side as he stretched out to try to make the stop. He hurt the same shoulder last season and was forced to miss a start against the Atlanta Falcons in October 2016.

********************

Rodgers breaks collarbone, Winston also hurts shoulder
October 15, 2017

Aaron Rodgers' season may have ended after an injury, just a week after the same thing happened to J.J. Watt and Odell Beckham Jr.

It's been a painful stretch for some of the NFL's biggest stars.

Rodgers broke his collarbone Sunday in Green Bay's 23-10 loss to Minnesota, and the Packers' Super Bowl hopes could be lost right along with him.

Watt wrote on Twitter that he was "gutted" for Rodgers, who led the Packers to the NFC championship game last season and had them off to a 4-1 start this year.

''Losing Aaron Rodgers speaks for itself,'' Packers coach Mike McCarthy said. ''In my opinion, he's the best player in football. This is the ultimate team game. We need to be better with the 11 people on the field that we have, regardless of the phase that we're in. Ultimately that's my responsibility.''

Jameis Winston also was lost early in Tampa Bay's game at Arizona, though the Buccaneers made a spirited surge after he left before falling 38-33.

The Packers couldn't do anything behind Rodgers' replacement, Brett Hundley, who finished 18 of 33 for 157 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Practice squad player Joe Callahan is the only other quarterback on the roster, but McCarthy indicated the Packers won't be out looking for a big-name veteran such as Colin Kaepernick.

''Brett Hundley and Joe Callahan, that's what we're going with,'' he said.

Rodgers was hurt when linebacker Anthony Barr drove him into the turf after he got rid of a roll-out pass. Rodgers writhed on the turf as McCarthy argued for a roughing-the-passer penalty.

For the first time this season, the Packers' starting offensive line was intact, though that lasted about half of the game. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga was knocked out of action with a concussion and left tackle David Bakhtiari's hamstring injury flared up. He missed the past four games.

The Packers, who were already missing three starting defensive backs, lost backup cornerback Quinten Rollins to an ankle injury.

If he can't make it back, Rodgers joins the likes of Watt, Houston's defensive leader who broke his leg, and Beckham, who broke his ankle in the Giants' loss last week.

Like Rodgers, Winston hurt his throwing shoulder when he was tackled. X-rays were negative and he will have an MRI to determine the extent of the injury.

He said he's had the injury before.

''I'll be back soon,'' Winston said.

Jacksonville's Leonard Fournette also expects to be fine after leaving the Jaguars' loss to the Rams with a right ankle injury. He had a 75-yard touchdown run earlier in the game and finished with 130 yards on 21 carries before departing late in the game.

Already without Jeremy Maclin, the Baltimore Ravens lost another receiver when Breshad Perriman went out with a second-quarter concussion. Tight end Maxx Williams also hurt his ankle while losing a fumble and did not return, but the Ravens nearly rallied before falling 27-24 in overtime to the Chicago Bears. Baltimore came back with a punt and a kickoff return for touchdowns against a Chicago team that lost special teams captain Sherrick McManus to a hamstring injury.

Pittsburgh linebacker Vince Williams had a pair of sacks in Kansas City but left in the second half with a hip injury. The Steelers also lost right tackle Marcus Gilbert, who had missed three weeks with a hamstring injury, in the first half after he aggravated it.

Redskins cornerback Bashaud Breeland will have an MRI on his left knee after being on the receiving end of a low block in a 26-24 victory over San Francisco. Coach Jay Gruden said it was an MCL issue.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/15/2017 13-11-0 54.17% +4.50
10/12/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/09/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
10/08/2017 8-10-0 44.44% -15.00
10/05/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
10/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00

Totals............23 - 23 - 1....50.00%....-11.50


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

10/15/2017.................2 - 4.................-12.00...........3 - 1...........+9.50........-2.50

10/12/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0 ..........+5.00.......+10.00

10/09/2017.................1 - 0.................+5.00............1 - 0...........+5.00.........+10.00

10/08/2017.................3 - 3.................-1.50.............2 - 4...........-12.00...............-13.50

10/05/2017.................0 - 0 - 1.............0.00.............1 - 0...........+5.00................+ 5.00

10/02/2017.................1 - 0................+5.00.............0 - 1............-5.50.................- 0.50

10/01/2017.................4 - 4.................-2.00.............2 - 2............- 1.00.................- 3.00

Totals.........................9 - 7 - 1............+ 6.50...........6 - 7............-8.50................-2.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 2.................................-10.00

Thursday Night 2 Team Parlay........................1 - 0.................................+12.50

Thursday Night Game of the month................1 - 0.................................+5.00

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks for Week 6 in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Atlanta Falcons, -11.5 (644)- L

5) Los Angeles Rams, +2.5 (701)- W

4) Denver Broncos, -11.5 (716)- L

3) Detroit Lions, +5 (779)- L

2) Green Bay Packers, -3 (970)- L

1) Pittsburgh Steelers, +4.5 (993)- W

Season record of top 6 picks: 15-21


**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…….

Eagles 28, Panthers 23— Philly’s first two TD drives were 12-17 yards; they improve to 5-1 and now have 11 days until their next game. Eagles are 3-1 on road; their only loss was to the Chiefs. Newton threw for 325 yards but threw three INT’s; guys on TV wondered if he hurt his shoulder on the play when he dove, trying to get the ball into the end zone. Road team covered all six Panther games this season.

Dolphins 20, Falcons 17— Atlanta led 17-0 at the half, then didn’t score in 2nd half, running 23 plays for 100 yards on four empty drives. Miami went TD-TD-FG-FG on their second half drives, after scoring 3 offensive TD’s on 46 drives in their first 4.5 games. Falcons are now 4-12 as home favorites under Quinn. AFC East road teams are 8-2 vs spread outside the division.

Vikings 23, Packers 10— So you’ve got Aaron Rodgers on your fantasy team, or you bet the Packers or are just a Packer fan; on one play, everything goes up in smoke, when Rodgers leaves in first quarter with a broken collarbone. Case Keenum is way better than Brett Hundley, as far as backup QB’s go. Next week, Hundley will become only the 7th starting QB for Green Bay in the last 25 years- since ’08, Packers are 3-5-1 without Rodgers, not including two other games they lost when he got hurt in the first quarter.

Saints 52, Lions 38— One of strangest games in NFL history; Detroit scored a defensive TD and had a punt return for a TD, yet they trailed 45-10 with 6:10 left in 3rd quarter. Then with 5:20 to go in the game, after being down 45-10, Lions had the ball down only 45-38.

New Orleans defense scored three TD’s in this game; when they were on the field, they scored 21 points and the Lion offense scored 24. In last three games, all wins. Saints have 9 takeaways (+6), after having zero takeaways in their first two games, both losses.

Patriots 24, Jets 17— At 1:48 Sunday afternoon, Josh McCown was 11-15/149 passing with two TD’s, as Jets led 14-0; McCown wound up 31-47/354 but a key call on a goal line fumble by the Jets cost Gang Green a huge TD. The play was very similar to Todd Gurley’s goal line fumble against Seattle LW, involving the pylon and the player recovering his fumble.

Jets gained 408 yards but turned ball over three times; they covered on a FG with 3:40 left- they’re 13-5 vs spread in last 18 games as a home underdog. Gronkowski caught two TD passes for New England.

Redskins 26, 49ers 24— Niners became 5th team in first six weeks of season to bench their QB for non-injury reasons; in other words, because the guy sucked. Iowa alum Beathard is grandson of former Redskins’ GM Bobby Beathard; he was 19-36/245 in his NFL debut. 49ers may be 0-6, but their last five losses were by 3-2-3-3-2 points- they’re 3-1 as road underdogs. Washington is 5-11 vs spread in its last 16 games as a home favorite.

Bears 27, Ravens 24 OT— Baltimore scored two TD’s on special teams, and still lost- their offense averaged 3.8 ypa, gained 291 yards, turned ball over 3 times. In last six days, Chicago has four TD passes; one each by the punter and RB Cohen, two by rookie QB Trubisky. Bobby Rainey had a 96-yard kickoff return for a Raven TD, the first kickoff return for a TD in the NFL this year. Ravens are +8 in turnovers in their wins, -6 in their losses.

Texans 33, Browns 17— Deshaun Watson woke up on draft day last spring with a text from Browns’ coach Hue Jackson, telling him to “be ready”. Then Cleveland passed on Watson; they are now 6-12 vs spread in their last 18 games as a road underdog.

Meanwhile, Houston scored 33-57-34-33 points in their last four games behind rookie QB Watson, a player the Browns could’ve taken themselves. I went to a damn state college, but even I know that quarterback is an important position in football— you need a good one.

Cardinals 38, Buccaneers 33— Arizona led 31-0, KO’d Bucs’ QB Winston (shoulder), but then Tampa Bay roared back behind backup QB Fitzpatrick, scoring four TD’s on their last six drives, but they never got ball back with chance to take lead. Cardinals averaged 11.3 ypa, scored 31 points on five red zone drives- they head to England next to play the Rams.

For the week, team over/unders are 13-13 heading into the Monday night game.

Rams 27, Jaguars 17— Special teams, special teams, special teams. John Fassel is the Rams’ special teams coach— his dad used to coach the Giants. When they fired him, he was replaced by Tom Coughlin, who now runs the Jacksonville franchise. Rams ran opening kick back for a TD, then blocked a punt for a TD later in the game.

Leonard Fournette’s first carry was a 75-yard TD; rest of the day, he ran ball 20 times for 55 yards, before leaving with a sprained ankle. Jaguars are +11 in turnovers in their three wins, -1 in their three losses.

Rams were held to 20-16 points in their two losses; they scored 27+ in their four wins.

Steelers 19, Chiefs 13— First half yardage: Pittsburgh 216, Kansas City -21. Despite that, KC trailed only 19-13 with 3:40 left when a bad pass by Roethlisberger took an unfortunate bounce off a defender’s hand and into Antonio Brown’s hands, were he scored the game-clinching TD.

Chiefs scored 17 TD’s in their first five games; they scored one here and rushed for only 28 yards- they lost despite an 11-yard edge in field position. Since start of LY, Chiefs are 0-3 vs Pittsburgh, 17-3 vs everyone else.

Chargers 17, Raiders 16— Five of six Charger game have been decided by 5 or less points; they won their last two games, both on road. Rivers found TE Henry with couple of key passes to keep game-winning drive alive- they kicked FG as time expired to win the game. Novak is their third kicker in six games, by the way.

Oakland lost its last four games, scoring 10-10-17-16 points; Carr played despite his back being not fully healed. Raiders ran a lot of shorter pass patterns so Carr wouldn’t be subjected to hits from linemen— thats why Amani Cooper’s numbers were down in this game.

Giants 23, Broncos 10— New York gets its first win of the year as 12-point underdogs; their reshuffled offensive line paved way for 146 rushing yards, second week in row they ran for 145+ yards. Siemian threw an awful pick-6 right before the half that broke the game open.

Denver was -3 in turnovers; NFL teams are 4-33 this season when they’re -2 or worse in TO’s. Giants play their next three games vs NFC West teams; Seahawks-Rams-49ers, with a bye mixed in there.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, October 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Colts at Titans
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-8.5, 48)

The Tennessee Titans witnessed firsthand last week what life is like without their stud quarterback while the Indianapolis Colts have played under that cloud all season. With Marcus Mariota's availability in question due to a hamstring injury, the Titans aim to snap an 11-game losing skid against the Colts on Monday night when the AFC South rivals meet at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn.

"I want to be very smart about how we do this. It's more than this game, it's a lot of games, that we've got to be concerned about," Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey said of Mariota. Mularkey and company couldn't have been too keen on the performance of Matt Cassel, as the Titans mustered just 188 total yards in their lowest scoring output of the season - a 16-10 loss to Miami. Indianapolis has seen its offense take significant strides as Jacoby Brissett has gotten acclimated under center in place of the injured Andrew Luck (shoulder), who does not have an exact timetable to return. Brissett threw for a career-high 314 yards and rushed for a touchdown last week as the Colts collected their second victory against a winless team with a 26-23 overtime triumph over San Francisco.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Colts (4) - Titans (3) + home field (-3) = Titans -2

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opned as 8-point home favorites and that number has been bumped up slightly to -8.5. The total hit betting boards at 49 and has dropped one full point to 48 as of Sunday night.

INJURY REPORT:

Colts - WR Chester Rogers (Probable Monday, Hamstring), CB Quincy Wilson (Probable, Knee), TE Jack Doyle (Probable, Concussion), CB Nat Hairston (Probable Monday, Quadricep), RB Matt Jones (Probable, Knee), QB Jacoby Brissett (Probable Monday, Wrist), LB Anthony Walker Jr. (Questionable Monday, Hamstring), QB Andrew Luck (Early November, Shoulder), OT Jack Mewhort (Questionable Week 14, Knee), S Clayton Geathers (Questionable Week 7, Neck), WR Krishawn Hogan (I-R, Knee).

Titans - QB Marcus Mariota (Questionable, Hamstring), OT Taylor Lewan (Questionable, Knee), S Johnathan Cyprien (Out, Hamstring), WR Corey Davis (Out, Hamstring), LB Aaron Wallace (Questionable Week 11, Back).

ABOUT THE COLTS (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U): T.Y. Hilton gashed the 49ers with seven receptions for 177 yards last week and looks to continue his assault on the Titans, against whom he had a seven-catch, 133-yard performance last October in a comeback win in Nashville. "This game, it counts double. It's very important. It's something that we understand," the 27-year-old Hilton said. Rookie running back Marlon Mack has shown a burst in Indianapolis' backfield, rushing for a 22-yard touchdown and galloping for a key 35-yard run that set up Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 51-yard field goal in overtime. Veteran Frank Gore, who moved into seventh place in NFL history with 13,304 yards rushing, has four touchdowns in his last three games versus Tennessee.

ABOUT THE TITANS (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Tennessee's bread and butter has long been its rushing attack, but DeMarco Murray has amassed just 89 yards on the ground in his last two contests - with Miami limiting the Titans to only 69 yards on 20 carries last week. Murray could get untracked against a Colts'defense that is surrendering an NFL-high 31.8 points per game this season, and the veteran has scored a touchdown in each of the past three encounters with the club. Wideout Rishard Matthews has put his best foot forward at home, reeling in 20 receptions for 272 yards and two touchdowns in the past three games. Matthews, however, has been limited to just six catches for 83 yards in the Titans' back-to-back losses the past two weeks.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Over is 6-1 in Colts last 7 games in October.
* Over is 10-2-1 in Titans last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Colts are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Colts are picking up 61 percent of the pointspread wagers and Over is grabbing 55 percent of the totals selections.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: A-Rod injury turns Pack into early Week 7 pups
Patrick Everson

The Green Bay Packers are home underdogs for just the second time since the beginning of the 2014 season. Will backup QB Brett Hundley be able to carry the load for the Pack with A-Rod out?

Through six weeks of the NFL season, there are no more undefeated teams, and it’s anybody’s guess as to which squad is best. Patrick Everson checks out the opening lines on four Week 7 games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3)

Kansas City tumbled from the ranks of the unbeaten with a sluggish Week 6 offensive performance, failing to put up touchdown until the fourth quarter. The Chiefs (5-1 SU and ATS) lost to Pittsburgh 19-13 as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Oakland welcomed the return of star quarterback Derek Carr, then promptly mirrored KC with a lackluster effort. The Raiders (2-4 SU and ATS) had just one second-half score – a fourth-quarter touchdown after which they missed the extra point. That proved critical when the Raiders, 3-point home faves, lost 17-16 on a last-second San Diego field goal.

Both teams now have a short week, playing in the Thursday nighter.

“What a change in perception between these teams from the offseason to the present,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs finally put up a dud, but that’s expected at some point, while Oakland looks like it’s already left for Vegas. But as we’ve seen in recent weeks with teams that look disoriented, expect the Raiders’ best effort Thursday night.”

Early bettors apparently think so. Although the Raiders were still 3-point home pups late Sunday night, the price to get those points was up to -125.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-4.5)

It’s a rematch of the Super Bowl, though neither team seems to be in championship form, particularly Atlanta. The Patriots, bettors will remember, were 3-point faves in the Super Bowl against Atlanta and needed a miracle to overcome at 27-3 second half deficit to win and cover the spread.

The Falcons (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) won their first three games, trying to put that incredible Super Bowl meltdown behind them. But they’ve now dropped the last two, including Sunday’s shocking 20-17 home loss to Miami as hefty 14-point chalk.

New England (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) spotted the New York Jets 14 points on Sunday, not exactly looking like a 9-point road favorite. However, the Patriots scored the next 24 points and hung on for a 24-17 victory.

“Sharps loved the Falcons in the last matchup between these teams, and they’re lining up again here,” Cooley said of early action for this Sunday night clash. “We’ve already moved the spread down to -3, but it’s doubtful we’ll see it dip under the key number. The Falcons look flat of late, but it’s not as if the Pats have been world beaters the last three weeks.”

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5)

Heading into Week 7, Philadelphia surprisingly holds the lead in the NFC East. The Eagles (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) played in the first game of Week 6 and dropped Carolina 28-23 catching 3 points on the road Thursday night.

Washington (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) blew all of a 17-0 lead Sunday, but held on late to move above .500. The Redskins edged the 49ers 26-24, falling well short as 12-point home faves.

“Early money has been on Washington, which is somewhat of a surprise,” Cooley said of the Week 7 Monday nighter. “We’ve moved down to -4 already, but it’s highly unlikely it will head further south. You have to like what both of these squads are doing on the field, but Philadelphia is a few pegs ahead of where Washington is.”

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+4)

Green Bay was 4-1 SU and appeared to be rounding into form after a big road win at Dallas. Then Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone in the first quarter Sunday against Minnesota, and poof! The Packers (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) lost 23-10 giving 3 points on the road, and will be without their stud QB for the foreseeable future, perhaps the rest of the season.

Meanwhile, New Orleans cracked the 50-point barrier in a wild Week 6 home victory. The Saints (3-2 SU and ATS) went off as 6-point faves against Detroit, led 45-10 midway through the third quarter, then held off a furious rally for a 52-38 victory. Drew Brees and Co. have won and cashed three straight.

Cooley said Bookmaker.eu wasn’t quite ready Sunday to post a Saints-Packers line, with Green Bay now relying on unproven backup Brett Hundley.

“We’ve got to do some additional assessment with Hundley under center in Green Bay before posting a line,” Cooley said. “The public will line up to fade a team sans Aaron Rodgers, but we’ve seen this Packers bunch blow out opponents without him. We’ll open the Saints as short road chalk.”

The Wynn sportsbook in Las Vegas opened with the Saints as 4-point road favorites, while offshore sportsbook Pinnacle installed the Saints as 4.5-point chalk.

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 7 NFL lines are going to move

Bill Belichick's defense has given up 300 or more passing yards in each of the Patriots last six games. Despite the high total, this could be another good opportunity to bet the over with New England.

Game to bet now

Dallas at San Francisco (+6)

Call this one the National Anthem Bowl. The Cowboys, who have been ordered by owner Jerry Jones to stand for the anthem under penalty of benching (or worse), vs. the 49ers, who are the flagship franchise for protest and can stand or kneel depending on the depths of their beliefs.

There will probably be a football game after said anthem, and it’s a big game for the Boys if not the out-of-it-already Niners. Dallas is 2-3 (both SU and ATS) and staring down the barrel of a nasty October/November run that includes four straight winning teams (Washington, Kansas City, Atlanta, Philadelphia) after this Sunday.

It’s possible that all the hay will be in the barn by Thanksgiving, so the Cowboys really need this one to get some momentum for their most important four-game stretch of the season.

Game to wait on

New Orleans at Green Bay (+4.5)

Pro Football Talk has suggested that it might be time to institute even more protection for quarterbacks after Aaron Rodgers was lost for the year when he suffered a broken collar bone when hit a split second after throwing a pass last Sunday.

Maybe, maybe not. But Rodgers might be the best QB in the world, and losing him is bad for business.

The focus will now be on backup QB Brett Hundley, who has been holding a clipboard for a couple of years. Hundley threw 33 passes on Sunday and three of them wound up being intercepted. The Saints are scrambling to find tape on the kid. The line could expand based on early betting.

Total to watch

Atlanta at New England (53.5)

A week or more of warm weather is predicted in New England, and that’s good news for both offenses in this Super Bowl repeat.

The Falcons will welcome any help they can get after scoring just 34 total points in back-to-back losses to AFC East teams (Miami, Buffalo) – and the Patriots might just be the cure for what ails them.

Last Sunday vs. the Jets, New England’s defense gave up more than 300 passing yards for the sixth consecutive. Every week fans figure that Bill Belichick will get it fixed, and every week it isn’t.

Even with the high number, the over might be worth a long, hard look.