The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Record For Sept......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

Totals...................41 - 30 - 1...........57.74%...........+ 40.00

Best Bets:

Best Bets Total.............7 - 6......+2.00............7 - 7.........- 3.50................- 1.50


Dog Of The Month........1 - 0

Total Of the Day...........1 - 0


*******************************

NFL Record For Oct......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

10/01/2017 9-12-0 42.86% -21.00


Best Bets:...................ATS.......Units........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

Best Bets Total.............4 - 4......-2.00............2 - 2.........- 1.00................- 3.00

Sunday Night 2 Team Parlay...........................0 - 1.................................-5.00


MONDAY, OCTOBER 2

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WAS at KC 08:30 PM

KC -7.0 *****

U 48.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

I had a call that will take me away for a few days on a family emergency.....I will try to do my best to keep you all up to date as much as i can..........Good Luck All !

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 5
October 3, 2017

THURSDAY, OCT. 5

NEW ENGLAND at TAMPA BAY (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pats “over” first 4 TY, and Belichick has tended to go on “totals” streaks before. Belichick now 9-1 vs. line last 10 away from Gillette Stadium.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on recent “totals” trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 8

L.A. CHARGERS at N.Y. GIANTS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli just 5-7 last 12 as home chalk. Bolts 23-11-1 as road dog since 2012.
Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team trends.


BUFFALO at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy “under” 10-2 last 12 since mid 2016. Marvin Lewis on 7-14-1 spread skid, 4-13-1 without Cleveland. Buffalo 12-6-1 as road dog since 2014.
Tech Edge: Bills, based on team trends.


N.Y. JETS at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies 4-14-1 last 19 vs. line at home. Also “under” 11-2 last 13 as host. Jets have covered only 2 of 9 on road since LY but one of those was at Cleveland.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.


JACKSONVILLE at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Tomlin “under” first four this season though Jags “over” 24-12 since 2015. Jags 8-3 last 11 as dog away from Everbank Field.
Tech Edge: Jags, based on recent trends.


TENNESSEE at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins “under” first 3 in 2017 after “over” 12-4 LY. Titans “over” 8-3 last 11 away.
Tech Edge: Slight to "under," based on current "totals" trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at INDIANAPOLIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Niners have covered 3 in a row and 5 of 6 since late 2016. Colts “under” 7-3 last ten at Lucas Oil.
Tech Edge: 49ers and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


ARIZONA at PHILADELPHIA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eagles 7-2 SU, 6-3 vs. line at Linc since LY. Though as chalk, Philly only 1-4 since LY. Cards now 3-8 vs. line last 11 away. Also “over” 11-1 last 12 away.
Tech Edge: Slight to Eagles, based on “totals” and team trends.


CAROLINA at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cam 6-1 last 7 as road dog, 17-6 since 2012 in role. Lions 11-4-1 as home chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Panthers, based on team trends.


SEATTLE at L.A. RAMS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Rams won SU 4 of last 6 vs. Hawks, and covered last five as series host. Rams also “over” last six since late 2016. Into Indy, Hawks on 5-game spread skid since late LY, the longest spread slump of the Carroll era. Also if chalk note 1-6 mark last seven in role.
Tech Edge: Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


BALTIMORE at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Oakland 5-4 at home vs. line since LY, also “over” 8-1 last nine as host. Ravens 2-4 last six as road dog.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over” and Raiders, based on “totals” and recent series trends.


GREEN BAY at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dallas 3-8 vs. line last 11 since late LY. Pack “over” 8-1 last nine on road.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to pack, based on “totals” and team trends.


KANSAS CITY at HOUSTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs have covered last 6 and 9 of last 10 in reg.-season games. Andy Reid 7-0 as road chalk since 2015. Texans 10-4-1 vs. line last 15 at home reg. season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on recent trends.

MONDAY, OCT. 9

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
IFox 5-1-1 vs. spread last 7 at Soldier Field, 6-1-1 last 8 as home dog. Home team 4-0 vs. line in Bears games this season. Vikes 3-6 vs. spread last nine away.
Tech Edge: Bears, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

OVER Teams to Watch
October 4, 2017

OVER Teams

Blast The OVER With These 3 Teams All Season

The spread always gets the attention, but sometimes the TOTAL is the safer bet. What do you care, right? You’re here to make money and the oddsmakers are laying down the same juice on this line for the most part.

Chasing touchdowns and cheering for scoring is fun. It’s why we watch the games. A defensive battle is great for some nerds or ex-defensive linemen who like to see a war of attrition, but for most of us we just want to see guys visiting the painted area of the fields as often as possible. Basically, we watch football to see fireworks and dancing.

So why aren’t you betting the OVER more often? These are three virtually automatic plays for you to ride as you fill out your betting ticket at BetOnline.ag on the weekend and for the foreseeable future.

For you parlay stuffers out there, there’s no better way to build a secondary angle in. Have at it. Chasing TOTALS is the best.

LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-0 O/U)
Off Rank: 1st (35.5 points)
Def Rank: 28th (26.3 points against)
Next Game: vs. Seattle (LAR -1.0 / 47.5)

Nobody would’ve guessed this at all. Aaron Donald on one of the worst scoring defences, and Jarod Goff leading the NFL’s best offence? Well it’s happening, folks. I mean, the 2017 calendar year has been outright bonkers from the beginning. Why not have something stupid like the Rams as the top ranked offence trickle in to our lives?

Todd Gurley is an absolute menace who has already racked up 7 touchdowns while leading the team in both rushing and receiving. He’s a monster. I can’t come up with enough adjectives to describe him. Finally, the stink of Jeff Fisher has dissipated off this young man’s career and he is running roughshod on the NFL.

None of what I just wrote should came as a surprise, but the fact that Gurley imposes his will on defenders so easily opens up things for a passing game that uses Robert Woods as its second receiver with insane results. Remember that when you’re betting on football, trends don’t have to make sense, they just have to be consistent.

For their part, the defence is like a revolving door. The Rams can’t stop anyone on the ground, and they’ve given up the third most rushing yards against with a whopping 151.2 per game. They’ve allowed the Niners to score 39 points and the Cowboys to drop 30. At this point, there’s no excuse for the defence. They simply give up a lot of points.

So while this might not be sustainable given that Goff is…you know…an idiot, it’s easily one of those plays that you just have to endeavor in. The Rams have been a capable team offensively all year long, and their defence hasn’t been able to slow anyone whatsoever. Slam the OVER until there’s a reason not to.

Yes, even against Seattle.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-0 O/U)
Off Rank: 2nd (32.3 points)
Def Rank: 31st (32.0 points against)
Next Game: at Tampa (NE -5.5 / 55.5)

It doesn’t get better than this. The game’s best player combined with the league’s second-worst defence. For those that are curious, Indianapolis is bottom barrel when it comes to scoring defence with 34.0 points against, but they also allow 60.5 fewer yards against compared to the Patriots. It’s not just bad in New England, it’s absolutely wretched.

The good news is that Tom Brady is never going to let the ship sink. He’s led two marvelous comebacks against Houston and Carolina. One came through while the most recent attempt fell short, but the teachable element is that Brady’s never going to quit. It doesn’t matter if he’s down 3-28 in the Super Bowl. The guy believes he can win every single game, and has the talent to make it happen.

The Patriots are the ideal composition for a fun, OVER bet if I’ve ever seen one. And if you think a defence like Tampa, which can’t create turnovers or put pressure on the quarterback, is going to slow down the greatest ever then you shouldn’t be betting on sports. The 55.5 point total the Pats-Bucs are receiving on Thursday night at BetOnline.ag is the highest of the entire week for good reason. Chase those points, cheer for touchdowns and enjoy the damn show.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-1 O/U)
Off Rank: 8th (25.5 points)
Def Rank: 15th (20.3 points against)
Next Game: vs. Jacksonville (Pit -8.5 / 43.5)

“Bend, don’t break.” It’s the mantra of the Packers defence, and nobody’s told them that it doesn’t work. The only reason it ever reaped benefits was when they had a set of vultures in the secondary. Green Bay is just 11th in takeaways this season, and most of those came against poor Mike Glennon.

The only game they’ve hit the UNDER on was against Seattle with a massive 49.5 TOTAL hanging over their head. Nobody thought Seattle would suck this badly this year, and that matchup was back in Week 1.

Look at their point total against Dallas in the game of the week. It’s a massive 52.5 points. Even considering how poorly the Cowboys have played, the fact that the Packers have allowed 51.0 total points to be scored against Cincinnati says enough for me. This team can smash TOTALS offensively because of Aaron Rodgers, but their defence absolutely gives up too many scoring chances regardless of what anyone says.

Just watch the games, especially when they play against Dallas this weekend. You will see what I’m saying when Zeke Elliott and Dak Prescott romp up and down the field as Green Bay appears helpless to stop them.

[StarDust Bum]

UNDER Teams to Watch
October 4, 2017


The 3 Best Under Bets in the NFL

Let’s get one thing straight: betting the UNDER isn’t fun. It’s a dare play. You want a boring game. You end up excited about punts and fair catches. It’s a weird place to be. But you’re a gambler right? What do you care if a game is pulse pounding? If you’re driven by the need to win money, then this is the perfect handicapping tip sheet for you.

The ideal UNDER team is typically built around a mediocre offence, paired with a strong scoring defence. There are also nominal plays when a defence is so chaotic and disruptive that it interrupts the game flow to the point that opponents lose their way. Below are teams that fit that bill.

To be clear, betting the UNDER at BetOnline.ag is not for the feint of heart. If you’re daring enough to walk on the side of the brave, then follow these three surprising UNDER plays.

And for reference, I have no idea why I have to capitalize OVER, UNDER and TOTAL. Maybe It’s because people don’t pay enough attention to these lines so we need to YELL ABOUT IT.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-4 O/U)
Off Rank: 18th (22.5 points)
Def Rank: 2nd (14.8 points against)
Next Game: vs. Jacksonville (Pit -8.5 / 43.5)

The Steelers are hilariously ranked 2nd in overall scoring defence because they got to play DeShone Kizer, Case Keenum, Mike Glennon and Joe Flacco in that order. But the glaring perception on them is that they can score in absolute boat loads, and from what we’ve seen from their offense so far, that isn’t happening.

Pittsburgh used to be an automatic OVER play because this offense was brilliant, and the opportunistic defence was great at scoring. That’s not the case anymore. So the Steelers remain an opponent-dependent UNDER take, but the TOTAL on their games ends up inflated because of flawed public perception. Take full advantage, especially in Week 5 when they play a sputtering Jaguars offence.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-3 O/U)
Off Rank: 16th (22.8 points)
Def Rank: 13th (19.8 points against)
Next Game: vs. Baltimore (Oak -2.5 / 40.0)

Yup, they were scoring that many points when Derek Carr was at the helm. It’s only going to get significantly worse now that E.J. Manuel is their quarterback. The good news? We saw it on Sunday when they manhandled Denver defensively. Khalil Mack and company are purely disruptive.

The only game they pushed the OVER is when they victimized an overwhelmed Jets secondary with long bombs. That part of their game plan is now dead. You can pinch their TOTALS tightly until Carr comes back in six weeks. There’s too much pride in their defense to let their division chances slip away.

BUFFALO BILLS (1-3 O/U)
Off Rank: 23rd (18.2 points)
Def Rank: 1st (13.5 points against)
Next Game: at Cincinnati (Cin -3.0 / 38.5)

If there was ever a perfect UNDER team, this is it. The Bills have clearly been the most ferocious defence in the NFL this year. You could see it in the way Devonta Freeman kept getting murdered in the backfield on Sunday. These guys are just out for blood. And their offence is slow, putrid and built on big plays that rarely happen. It’s the perfect storm.

The oddsmakers are so nervous around the Bills that they gave them a low hanging 40.0 point TOTAL against Denver. They only crested that mark by two points, winning 26-16. As far as savvy plays go, the Bills in the UNDER feels like a virtual lock considering how grinding their playing style is on both sides of the ball.

Just understand that you’re going to be holding your breath the entire time when you bet a Bills UNDER this year. It’s part of the price you pay to lay this kind of action.

[StarDust Bum]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 5
October 4, 2017


NFL Week 5 Underdogs to Watch

Week 4 was another good week for NFL underdogs across the board, but if you had the stones to bypass the points on some of the bigger 'dogs and bet them on the ML, you came away like a bandit.

Last week's underdogs piece suggested that only the Washington Redskins were primed for an outright upset (and they were in it until the end), but of the five other teams on the list, three of them won outright, San Francisco nearly knocked off Arizona in OT, and only the Colts lived up to their big number by getting smoked in Seattle.

ML plays on Carolina (+350), Buffalo (+320), and the L.A. Rams (+230) all provided huge paydays for bettors backing those sides, and they taught me to not be so dismissive of some quality teams that make this list.

Week 5 is a whole different beast all together though as people in survivor pools are likely going to be scratching their heads on who to pick this week. All but two of the games on the Sunday/Monday slate have point spreads of 3.5 or less, making this week's underdog list of teams at +4 or better rather short. Let's get right to the breakdown.

Odds per - BetDSI.eu

Underdogs that Qualify

Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5); ML (+330)
Arizona Cardinals (+6); ML (+235)

I'll start with Jacksonville, as they are in Pittsburgh to play a Steelers team off a dominant performance against the hated Baltimore Ravens. Pittsburgh is also back at home after two straight on the road, and do have a potential look-ahead spot here with a trip to face Kansas City on deck. That's not an ideal situation to be laying all those points with the Steelers, but do you really want to go all the way and fade them on the ML as well?

Jacksonville has looked good in two of the four weeks so far (beating Houston 29-7 and beating Baltimore 44-7), but it's been their play in their two losses that is quite concerning. The Jags got blown out by Tennessee in Week 2, and they basically played from behind all week last Sunday against a bad New York Jets team.

The Jags were outgained by 160 yards total against the Jets (-81 on the ground, -79 through the air), and they enter Week 5 with the worst rushing defense in the league - giving up 165.5 yards/game. That's music to the ears of Pittsburgh's O-Line and RB Le'Veon Bell, and if those guys have success then it will likely be another long day for this Jags defense.

Pittsburgh should be able to simply run the ball down Jacksonville's throat, dominate the time of possession game, put up plenty of points, and let their defense bring it home. Simply put, the Jags are not one I'd be looking to bet on the ML here, even with Pittsburgh potentially looking ahead to their date with the Chiefs.

Arizona is on the road as well, but they are in Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Philadelphia is 3-1 SU and while many media pundits are quite high on this Eagles team now, I believe they have gotten to that 3-1 SU record with a lot of smoke and mirrors.

The Eagles were lucky to leave Washington with a 30-17 victory in Week 1 as a few controversial calls went their way, they fell to the Chiefs late in Week 2, and have since beaten two winless teams (NYG and LAC) by a combined five points. Sure, they've put up at least 20 points each game in 2017, but this is a team that's nowhere near as good as many would want you to believe, or that their 3-1 SU record suggests.

Arizona hasn't really looked good in any game this year at 2-2 SU and that “eye test” is a big reason why they are getting nearly a TD here. The Cardinals have yet to cover a point spread this year, and two OT wins against the likes of Indianapolis and San Francisco have many people suggesting this Arizona team is going to be a bottom-feeder this year.

However, the talent is definitely on the Cardinals roster to be exponentially better than what they've shown, and an inability to execute in the redzone in terms of getting TD's has made them look a lot worse then they really are. This is definitely a game where I can see Arizona put it all together as the signs are there that they are close, and it's not like Philly's defense is anything special.

The Eagles allowed 24 points to the Chargers and Giants the last two weeks and they were torched through the air in both games. Arizona's strength on offense is in the passing game with RB David Johnson on IR, and Carson Palmer and his numerous weapons in the passing game should have a big effort.

So not only do I believe Arizona gets their first ATS win of 2017 this week, I strongly believe they get the outright victory as well. With the Cardinals (+235) paying out at the price they are, they are the big dog most likely to pull off the outright upset in Week 5.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Best Bet
October 4, 2017


Thursday NFL Best Bet

New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It's rare for the NFL to schedule a non-conference game for Thursday Night Football, but that's precisely what we've got this week as the Patriots head south to take on the Buccaneers. Both teams have two wins on the year, but both have losing ATS records as well, with New England's 1-3 ATS mark being the most concerning.

Bettors routinely got paid off a year ago backing New England ATS no matter the number as the Patriots went 13-3 ATS in 2016, and given the enormous popularity that surrounds New England, you'd better believe many will have no problem going back to the well in riding New England as they expect a turnaround to be on the horizon.

Yet, the Patriots defense is on a historically awful pace these days as they seemingly can't stop anyone. It was a problem that started to rear it's ugly head during the preseason, and a month into the regular season things really haven't changed. When you can't keep the opponent out of the end zone it's going to be hard to cover point spreads, but even with that being the case for New England, we've already seen plenty of support for them for TNF.

BetOnline.ag Odds: New England (-5.5), Tampa Bay (+5.5); Total set at 55

At the moment, VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers show more than 80% of the spread tickets being placed on New England already. Given the Patriots profile that's not surprising, but it also helps that many remember that visiting teams are 3-1 SU on TNF already this year.

New England backers will point to the fact that Tampa's defense isn't much better than their own statistically in 2017, and if this game does turn out to be a shootout this total suggests – and nearly everyone expects – siding with the more known commodity in the New England Patriots offense is going to be the default method of many bettors here.

Yet, while going against the grain and taking the Buccaneers ATS here is tempting (and will be even more so should this number climb to +6 or higher by kick-off), I'm not so sure I want a piece of the side in this game. This number is set right about where it should be in my opinion, and I wouldn't be surprised by either team winning SU and/or ATS. Instead it's this total of 55 that I believe is the better betting option and not really in the way you may expect.

Everyone will see this number of 55 and won't believe it's high enough given the two defenses involved here. New England has the worst pass defense in the league and is facing a third-ranked passing offense that the Bucs have. Conversely, New England's passing attack is #1 in the NFL (328 yards/game) and is facing the second-worst passing defense in the league. On the surface that looks like the easiest 'over' bet out there this year and there is no question the majority of total bettors will go that route.

But when I see two bottom-feeding defensive teams squaring off against one another, basically in any sport, I'm looking to go the other way and take the 'under.' The same line of thought works for two great defenses squaring off (ie. Take the 'over'), and it's for a variety of reasons.

One, oddsmakers have already incorporated these bad defensive numbers the Bucs and Pats have into their thinking behind the line and hung what they believe to be a fair number. They understand that the majority of bettors are going to take the 'over' no matter what in a game like this, and they try to suck out all the value they can from that projected play by posting a strong number. With the Patriots 4-0 O/U already this year and scoring an average of 32.2 points/game, the 'over' on this game is going to overwhelmingly end up being the majority side.

Secondly, going against the grain when the grain is so firmly going in one direction tends to be the smarter option, and that's undoubtedly what we've got here. There aren't many bettors who break down the stats for both sides and want to even consider sweating out a 'under' play in this game. The 'over' looks too good to be true in the eyes of many, and usually when that's the case, the oddsmakers are hoping they have you hook, line, and sinker.

Finally, let's look at some specific situations regarding this game that do in fact support an 'under' play here.

First off, Tampa's field is a grass field and it's going to be much slower than the fast turf tracks New England has played on for four weeks. New England is 1-8 O/U in their last nine games on grass and a bit of rain is expected in the forecast as well; potentially making things a little sloppy out there for the offenses. Add in a short week of prep time for both sides – a situation typically favorable to defensive football – and all of a sudden that 55 number shrinks up a bit.

Finally, don't for one second think the defensive players on both sides of the field are sick of hearing about how they are going to get torched every which way from Sunday in this game. Both units know they've not come close to playing up to par, and will look to establish their wills from the outset here.

How successful they are in doing that remains to be seen, but even some success and forcing FG's instead of TD's on drives makes reaching 55 points that much harder. And don't think for one second that either coaching staff won't be afraid to make personnel changes – if they haven't already this week – in an attempt to improve the disastrous play they've seen from their defenses already this year.

So while everyone is expecting a shootout with the ball aired out all over the yard on Thursday night, I think we a little bit of the opposite with the running game being more involved on both sides (RB Doug Martin returns for Tampa), and these two teams finish the game somewhere with a combined score in the 40's.

BetOnline.ag Best Bet: Under 55 points

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Cowboys open as home faves in Week 5
Patrick Everson

“Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Through the first four weeks of the season, Dallas still can’t seem to find the form it had during a 13-3 SU regular season in 2016. On Sunday, the Cowboys (2-2 SU and ATS) were in a dogfight throughout with the Los Angeles Rams and ultimately fell short 35-30 as a 5-point home favorite.

Green Bay got through the first month at 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), with the only loss coming at defending NFC champion Atlanta. Last week in the Thursday nighter, the Packers bounced the Bears 35-14 as a 7.5-point chalk.

“This rivalry has renewed in great fashion the last few years, and this game will easily be our biggest handle of the season from a public perspective,” Cooley said of this 4:25 p.m. ET clash on Sunday. “Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)

Much like Dallas, New England was dealt a stunning home loss in Week 4 and has now lost two of its three home games this season. The Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled to Carolina 33-30 as a 9-point fave, and now hit the road on a short week, playing in the Thursday night game.

Tampa Bay (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got a Nick Folk 34-yard field goal as time expired to edge the New York Giants 25-23, but the Bucs fell a tick short of covering as 2.5-point chalk Sunday.

“We’re expecting this number to inflate with the Patriots coming off a loss. But it’s doubtful it will grow to -5, and unlikely it will drop below -4,” Cooley said. “Our team was pretty consistent on this number and it feels right. Squares will think this is a steal spread, backing the Pats.”

As Cooley predicted, the number did bump up a tick later Sunday night, to Patriots -4.5.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Philadelphia is looking solid through four weeks, having already posted a pair of road victories. On Sunday at San Diego, the Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) held on for a 26-24 win as a 2-point underdog.

Arizona (2-2 SU) hasn’t covered in any of its four games this season. The Cardinals needed overtime Sunday in an offensive slog against San Francisco, winning 18-15 laying 6 points at home.

“My best guess is that this will climb a bit on the favorite side,” Cooley said. “Arizona is just not a good team, while we’ve been quite impressed with the Eagles, particularly in their road victories against decent competition. Some of our oddsmakers wanted this at -7.”

By late Sunday night, it was already trending that way, with Bookmaker.eu moving the Eagles to -6.5.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (no line)

Los Angeles is arguably one of the biggest surprises so far this season, getting out of the box 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) while piling up a ton of points. The Rams went into Dallas on Sunday as a 5-point pup, but came away with a 35-30 victory, getting six field goals from Greg Zuerlein.

Seattle finally showed signs of life on offense in the second half of the Week 4 Sunday night game. The Seahawks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) scored 36 points over the final two frames against Indianapolis, rolling to a 46-18 victory laying 12.5 points at home. With Seattle in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is waiting until Monday to post the line on Seahawks-Rams.

“Depending on how the Sunday night game goes, we’ll likely open Seattle as short chalk on the road,” Cooley said. “The Rams have surprised most, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly impressed in the early goings (prior to Sunday). That said, the public won’t think twice about backing the ‘Hawks at a favorable number.

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 5 NFL lines are going to move

Green Bay is relishing a few extra days off after demolishing the Bears last Thursday, with about a dozen players nursing various injuries.

Game to bet on now

Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3)

The first-place Buffalo Bills. OMG. No, today is not Opposite Day - the Bills are actually in first place in the AFC for the first time since, well, maybe George Bush – the FIRST George Bush.

New England’s continued defensive struggles have created, at least, a temporary opening for the Bills and their long-suffering fans, and right now they’re taking full advantage. Through four games Buffalo has given up the fewest points in the league (less than 14 a game), and back-to-back wins over quality teams (Denver, at Atlanta) has raised hopes sky-high in western New York.

With the Patriots on a short week and the Bills on the move, things could get very interesting in the division for the first time in a long time.

Game to wait on

Green Bay at Dallas (-2.5)

This line opened at Dallas -1 at some books but the consensus was -2.5, which led to Green Bay backers jumping in with both feet. It has the look and a feel of a game whose line could melt a bit.

There might be an air of desperation in Dallas (even moreso than usual) as the Cowboys are 2-2 and still trying to figure things out. Certainly no one in the league had penciled in a home loss to the Rams when the schedule came out, but here we are. The Boys need to get rolling and fast, but the next four-game block includes this one, road games to each coast (San Francisco, Washington) with a home game against a solid KC team mixed in.

Green Bay is relishing a few extra days off after demolishing the Bears last Thursday, with about a dozen players nursing various injuries. Might be worth waiting for the injury report before betting this one.

Total to watch

Carolina at Detroit (43.5)

Is Cam Newton finally out of the box, or was Sunday’s 33-point burst just an example of another quarterback taking advantage of New England’s league-worst defense?

Newton’s Panthers had scored just 22 points total in their previous two games (New Orleans, Buffalo) but got out of the sick bed fast against the porous Patriots' D. Newton got the job done against New England despite two sacks, an interception and a fumble, which means the offense still has some cleanup work to do.

The Lions defense has been about average this season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Carolina to put points on the board as it continues an October stretch of four road games in five weeks.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (2 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1) - 10/5/2017, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 178-140 ATS (+24.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 116-82 ATS (+25.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, October 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (0 - 4) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 45-26 ATS (+16.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (1 - 3) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (2 - 2) at CLEVELAND (0 - 4) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 2-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 102-72 ATS (+22.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 89-62 ATS (+20.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (2 - 2) at MIAMI (1 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 4) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (2 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 1) at DETROIT (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-56 ATS (+18.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 58-83 ATS (-33.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 131-170 ATS (-56.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (2 - 2) at LA RAMS (3 - 1) - 10/8/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 40-65 ATS (-31.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
LA RAMS is 177-226 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 177-226 ATS (-71.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-115 ATS (-46.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 127-178 ATS (-68.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-178 ATS (-58.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 3-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 74-101 ATS (-37.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at DALLAS (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/8/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, October 9

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at CHICAGO (1 - 3) - 10/9/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 5

9:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
Tampa Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home


Sunday, October 8
2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Miami is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
San Francisco is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games at home

2:00 PM
NY JETS vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
NY Jets are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games
Cleveland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets

2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

2:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NY GIANTS
Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing Los Angeles

2:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. DETROIT
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PITTSBURGH
Jacksonville is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Jacksonville
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

2:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Arizona is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona

5:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. LOS ANGELES
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Los Angeles is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing Seattle

5:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. OAKLAND
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Baltimore

5:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DALLAS
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

9:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. HOUSTON
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home


Monday, October 9

9:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
Minnesota is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Minnesota

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday's game
Patriots (2-2) @ Buccaneers (2-1)— New England defense has already allowed 33+ points in three games this year; they’re 0-2 when scoring less than 36 points. Patriot defense has given up 3.04 pts/drive on 28 opponent drives that started 75+ yards from goal line; next worst in NFL are Saints, at 2.80. Bucs don’t have a takeaway in last two games; they’re only 4-17 on 3rd down in last two games. Tampa ran ball for 117-111 yards in its two wins, only 26 yards on 9 carries in their 26-9 loss in Minnesota. Patriots are 6-2 vs Tampa Bay, winning last three meetings by combined score of 86-10. This is Patriots’ first visit to Tampa Bay since 1997. NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside the division; AFC East teams are 6-4, 1-3 when favored.


Sunday's games
Chargers (0-4) @ Giants (0-4)— Two desperate teams meet here; Chargers already have three losses by 3 or less points- they lost 24-21 at Denver in only road game. Since 2012, LA is 22-11-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Giants lost 27-24/25-23 the last two weeks; they’re running ball for only 59.3 yards/game, so all the pressure is on their passing game. Giants lost 24-10 to Detroit in their only home game; they’re 5-7 vs spread in last 12 games as a home favorite. Chargers won last three series games, by 22-1-23 points; their last loss to the Giants was in 1998. NFC East teams are 5-4 vs spread out of their division, 1-3 when favored. AFC West teams are 5-4 vs spread out of division, 3-0 as an underdog.

Bills (3-1) @ Bengals (1-3)— Buffalo allowed 13.5 ppg in its 3-1 start, giving up 4 TD’s on 4 drives; they were underdog in last 3 games. Bills are +6 in turnovers- they haven’t turned ball over in their last three games- three of the four games stayed under. Buffalo is 12-6-1 in last 19 games as a road underdog. Bengals won their first game LW; they led 21-7/21-0 at halftime last two weeks- they lost in OT at Green Bay in Week 3. Cincy scored 6 TD’s on 20 drives in last two games, after scoring no TD’s in first two games- -they won three of last four series games; road team won four of last five series games. Bills are 5-1 in last six visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.

Jets (2-2) @ Browns (0-4)— Winless Browns are at home for 4th time in five weeks; they have worst red zone defense in NFL, allowing 6.38 pts/red zone drive, slightly worse than Green Bay. Browns are running ball for 89 yards/game- they’re only 15-53 on 3rd down, not unusual with a rookie QB playing. Jets won last two weeks; they ran ball for 256 yards LW. Under Bowles, Jets are 5-9-3 vs spread on road. Last 4+ years, Browns are 4-8 vs spread as a home favorite; they are 4-10 vs spread in last 14 games when favored. Jets won their last four games with Cleveland; they won 31-28 here LY, are 2-1 in last three visits here. AFC East teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division, 5-1 as an underdog. AFC North teams are 2-2 vs spread.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Steelers (3-1)— Jaguars ran ball for 155+ yards in 3 of 4 games; they’re 7 for last 27 on 3rd down, completed only 15-35 passes LW. Jags averaged 7.5/7.4 ypa in their two wins, 5.9/3.8 in their losses. Jaguars are 6-3 in last nine games as a road underdog. Steelers (-8.5) beat Minnesota in their only home game; they’ve held all four opponents under 5.0 ypa this year, last three under 4.0. Since 2012, Pitt is 20-12 vs spread as a home favorite; they’ve allowed 23 points, scored 7 on 28 opponents’ drives that started 75+ yards from goal line. Pitt won last three series games, by 5-4-8 points, since Jaguars beat them in ’07 playoffs. Jaguars are 5-2 in last seven visits to Steel City. AFC South non-divisional home dogs are 3-2 vs spread.

Titans (2-2) @ Dolphins (1-2)— Miami is finally home after games in LA-NJ-London, thanks to Hurricane Irma; in their last two games, Dolphins have one TD, no FGA’s on 20 drives- they went 2-20 on 3rd down in their two losses, but scored only one TD in the win, too. Fish are 10-5-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home underdog. Tennessee lost 57-14 LW in a game they were favored to win; Titans scored 37-33 points in its two wins- they went 3/out on 15 of last 25 drives, allowed 26+ points in 3 of 4 games. Tennessee is 1-3-1 in last five games as a road favorite. Teams split last ten meetings; Titans won 37-3/30-17 in last two visits to Miami. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 5-1 vs spread; AFC South teams are 4-4.

49ers (0-4) @ Colts (1-3)— 49ers didn’t score a TD in 3 of their 4 games; they scored 39 in the other game, but lost all four, last three by 3-2-3 points- Niners are 8-12 in last 20 games as a road underdog, but are 2-0 this year. Indy was tied 18-18 in Seattle Sunday, then got outscored 21-0 over a 5:56 span; they’ve split two home games this year, with both games decided by a FG. Colts are favored for first time this year; over last 2+ years, they’re 5-7 as a home favorite- under is 12-6 in their last 18 home games. Colts won last three series games, by 25-4-20 points; teams split four meetings played here. AFC South non-divisional home teams are 3-1 vs spread. NFC West teams are 3-7 vs spread outside their division, 1-4 when getting points.

Cardinals (2-2) @ Eagles (3-1)— Arizona is 2-2, with shaky wins by FG each over Colts/49ers, when they allowed a total of one TD- they gave up 8 offensive TD’s in losses to Lions/Dallas; Cardinals have run ball for only 57 ypg. Redbirds are 1-4 in last five games as a road underdog. Philly is 3-1, winning their last two games by total of 5 points; they beat Giants 27-24 (-6) in their only home game, kicking 61-yard FG on last play. Eagles are 4-6 in last 10 games as a home favorite; they ran ball for 193-214 yards in last two games, have converted 30-59 on 3rd down this season.NFC East teams are 1-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West dogs are 1-4. Arizona won five of last six games with Philly, winning 40-17 in last visit here two years ago.

Panthers (3-1) @ Lions (3-1)— Detroit is already +9 (11-2) in turnovers this year; they’ve won field position in all 4 games, three by 5+ yards. Lions are 12-4-3 as a home favorite under Caldwell, 1-0 this season. Carolina didn’t allow a TD in winning their first two games; they gave up 7 TD’s on 19 drives in last two games, but upset Patriots 33-30 LW to get to 3-1. Panthers are 8-1 vs spread in last nine games as a road underdog. Under is 3-1 in their four games. LW was first time they gained more than 288 yards in a game this year. Carolina is 5-2 against the Lions, splitting part of visits here, last of which was in 2011. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 6-2 vs spread; NFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside their division.

Seahawks (2-2) @ Rams (3-1)— Seattle lost its first two road games by 8-6 points; they’re 11-7-5 in last 23 games as a road underdog. Seahawks scored 8 TD’s on 23 drives in last two games, after scoring one TD the first two weeks. 3-1 Rams are favored over Seattle for just 4th time in last 27 meetings. LA won three of last four series games, which lost last three series road games, by 2-3-6 points. Rams lead NFL in scoring thru four weeks, scoring 12 TD’s with 14 FGs in four games, plus two TD’s by the defense- they scored 35+ points in their three wins, were held to 20 in only loss (27-20) vs Redskins. LA defense gave up 385+ yards in each of last three games; opponents were 16-32 on 3rd down in last two games.

Ravens (2-2) @ Raiders (2-2)— Oakland QB Carr (back fracture) is out 2-6 weeks; EJ Manuel is Raiders’ new QB- he is 6-11 as an NFL starter, losing last five starts- his last win was in 2014. Oakland lost last two games, scoring two TD’s on 24 drives, with 15 3/outs. Ravens were +7 in turnovers in their two wins, then lost last two games by combined 70-16, scoring two TDs with six turnovers (-5) on 24 drives. Raiders won their last two games vs Baltimore, 37-33/28-27, after losing 7 of previous 8 series games. Teams split four meetings played here. Lot of travel for Ravens, who were in London two weeks ago, then didn’t have bye week after, and are now on west coast- 3 of their 4 games for both teams have stayed under the total.

Packers (3-1) @ Cowboys (2-2)— Green Bay won six of last seven series games, beating Dallas in playoffs two of last three years; they won 37-36/34-31 in last two visits here- their last loss in Dallas was in ‘07. Packers have already used 3 LT’s and 3 RT’s, is amazing they’re 3-1. Pack is 28-57 on 3rd down despite running for only 74.5 ypg, a credit to Rodgers’ greatness. Cowboys allowed 42-35 points in two losses, 3-17 points in two wins; they’re 8-18 vs spread in last 26 games as non-divisional home favorites. Last week was first time Green Bay led at halftime this year; Packers are 3-9 vs spread in last 12 games as road underdogs, 8-15 vs spread in last 23 games on artificial turf. Green Bay’s last three games all went over the total. Packers’ RB Montgomery has multiple broken ribs, will likely sit this one out.

Chiefs (4-0) @ Texans (2-2)— Short week for Chiefs, who won/covered their first four games, scoring 14 TD’s on 42 drives- they haven’t turned ball over in their last 3 games. KC is 12-2 vs spread as a road favorite under Reid- they ran ball for 168+ yards in 3 of their 4 games, are tied with Raiders for best (5.67 ppp) red zone offense in NFL. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Texan games this year; Houston scored 90 points in last two games behind rookie QB Watson, who is 2-1 as a starter. Texans scored a defensive TD in each of last two games, and also averaged 8.3/7.6 ypa; they’re 3-4 as a home underdog under O’Brien. KC is 5-4 in series games, 4-3 in Houston. AFC West teams are 6-4 vs spread outside the division; AFC South teams are 4-4 vs spread outside their division.

Monday's game
Vikings (2-2) @ Bears (1-3)— Rookie QB Trubisky makes his NFL debut here; he started for one year at North Carolina- UNC went 8-5 LY. Vikings won four of last five games against the Bears,, but lost 8 of their last 9 visits to Chicago, with lone win 2 years ago. Minnesota scored 9-7 points in their losses this year, 29-34 in their wins; they lost 26-9 at Pittsburgh in only road game this season— backup QB Keenum is 10-17 as an NFL starter. Chicago is 1-3, but both their home games were decided by 6 points- they were outscored 47-7 in first half of their last two losses, which is why the QB change was made. Bears are 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight games as road underdogs. Under is 3-1 in both teams’ games this year.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5
Monty Andrews

Le'Veon Bell broke out in a big way last week, racking up 186 total yards and two touchdowns. He faces a Jags team that allows more than 165 rushing yards per game on a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5, 43.5)

Jaguars' dreadful run D vs. LeVeon Bell's awesomeness

After playing three of their first four games on the road, the Pittsburgh Steelers enjoy a nice stretch of home cooking - beginning with Sunday afternoon's showdown with the visiting Jacksonville Jaguars. Ben Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers' offense is still finding its footing early in the season, but comes into this one with a 3-1 record - and a significant advantage when it comes to their run game, if last week's strategy is any indication.

A lot of attention has been paid to the Jaguars' offense, which was a major question mark following Blake Bortles' terrible preseason and a season-ending injury to top receiver Allen Robinson. Yet, while the team has put up an impressive 109 points through four games, it's the run defense that has been a significant issue. Jacksonville is surrendering more than 165 rushing yards per game on a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry with five touchdowns against; the Jags gave up just 3.8 YPC last season.

The Steelers finally gave their bellcow back, Le'Veon Bell, a workload commensurate with his ability in last week's 26-9 rout of the Baltimore Ravens - and Bell broke out in a big way, racking up 186 total yards and a pair of touchdowns. He's averaging just 3.7 YPC on the season, but missed all of training camp due to a contract dispute and is just now hitting his stride. If the Jags' run defense continues to allow big runs, Bell and the Steelers could be in for a very big day.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 44)

Panthers' aversion to penalties vs. Lions' lousy discipline

It's a battle of division leaders at Ford Field this Sunday as the Lions host the Panthers in a showdown of 3-1 teams. The Panthers are coming off a stunning 33-30 win over the defending-champion Patriots at Foxboro, while the Lions ground out a 14-7 road win over Minnesota last weekend. Discipline could be a major factor in this one, with Carolina among the league's best at avoiding flags - and Detroit at the other end of the spectrum as we enter Week 5.

Carolina has been the class of the league when it comes to discipline, picking up just 13 flags through four games - the fewest in the NFL. Only Tampa Bay has garnered fewer than Carolina's 118 penalty yards against, and the Buccaneers have only played three games. The Panthers' plus-10 net penalty count ranks second in the league, and they rank fourth in net penalty yards (65). Even more impressively: Carolina has just two combined flags in its previous two games.

The Lions should consider themselves fortunate to be 3-1 at this stage of the season considering how undisciplined they've been so far. Detroit has been penalized 31 times for a whopping 308 yards against, the third-highest total in the league. That includes 139 penalty yards on offense, behind only the Steelers. It's no surprise, then, that the Lions rank second from the bottom in net penalty yards with -125 - and a similar performance this weekend could spell trouble for the hosts.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+1, 47)

Chiefs' poor pass protection vs. Texans' tough pass rush

The Chiefs are the only remaining unbeaten team through four weeks - and they'll be in tough to keep their spotless record as they draw the Texans in Houston this weekend. The Texans are coming off a 57-14 annihilation of Tennessee, evening their record and moving them into a tie with the Jaguars and Titans atop the AFC South. Yet, for as much attention as the Houston offense garnered last week, it's the Texans' elite pass rush that could help the home side hand Kansas City its first loss.

Alex Smith has been his efficient best through four games - completing 76 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions - but has also had to deal with a leaky offensive line that has allowed 16 sacks so far this season, third-most in the NFL. Smith has been sacked on 11.7 percent of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Kansas City run game has helped take some of the focus away, but make no mistake - Smith has spent a lot of time on the ground.

Houston will be happy to oblige this weekend; the Texans have produced a sack on 8.3 percent of opponent dropbacks so far this season, good for seventh in the league. That pass pressure has also helped contribute to Houston's four interceptions, tied for sixth-most league-wide. Combine that with the Texans' league-leading seven forced fumbles, and it could be a long afternoon for Smith and the rest of the Kansas City offense.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3, OFF)

Vikings' drive-extending success vs. Bears' third-down D woes

There's plenty of hype surrounding this week's Monday night tilt between the Vikings and the host Bears, with Chicago finally starting No. 2 pick Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. Yet, while it's difficult to know what fans and bettors alike can expect from the rookie signal caller, it should be a little easier to spot a significant edge the Vikings have coming into this one - and if they can exploit it, that could give them the edge to escape with a pivotal NFC North road victory.

Minnesota could have Sam Bradford back under center this week - and while that's great news for the offense, substitute Case Keenum has performed admirably in Bradford's absence. Together, they have the Vikings ranked fifth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 46.2 percent - behind only Carolina, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Denver. It's a considerable improvement from the 38.0-percent third-down success rate Minnesota boasted last season.

The Bears are one of only two teams in the NFC to have allowed more than 100 points so far - and they can "credit" their woeful showing on third downs for part of that. Chicago is allowing opponents to score or extend drives on better than 47 percent of their third-down situations - the third-worst mark in football, and a major drop from last season's 40.5-percent conversion rate. Those extra plays could mean the difference in what is expected to be a closely-contested affair.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 5 lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

The Buffalo Bills are a perfect 4-0 ATS and getting three points from oddsmakers visting the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 55.5)

Taking everything into account, a general statement about both teams comes to New England not really being a good team right now and Tampa Bay not being that bad of a team.

Offshores sent this out at Patriots -4.5 and by Tuesday afternoon the line had already hit -6 Even on the strip in Las Vegas. Personally, I liked the offshore opener and thought that to be very fair. I’m not sure what the early money sees in a New England team that can’t stop anyone from a defensive perspective. Losers of two of three games at home, though the Pats have scored mightily themselves, their defense has allowed 42, 20, 33 and 33 points in succession.

With that kind of swiss cheese defense, it seems that bettors can take full advantage of this weak link in the New England chain and capitalize further with this early growing number. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs scored a nice victory in this spot straight up.

With the fast, early movement on the road favorites, Tampa Bay backers may want to wait to see if their local bookmakers continue to beef up the Patriots number in keeping up with the Joneses. Nothing like going against a team that’s in “due factor” mode in the eyes of line changing money. Somehow, I don’t think this is the Patriots’ year. Early recognition of this will put more cash in your pocket than taking it out. Wait to see where this peaks then take the home dog for best value.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 39)

This game opened Bengals -3 and remained at that level for a good three days now. I had this closer to a pick’em and I can’t for the life of me figure out what is going on with this game.

Cincinnati had shown next to nothing in its first three games sporting an 0-3 record with minimal offense to speak of. I put little credence in the Bengals’ win over hapless Cleveland and can’t believe it had any motivational force to the oddsmakers who made this line.

What’s not to like about the Bills right now? Their offense has been rejuvenated the past two games. Their defense continues to dominate everyone they have faced so far. They conceivably could have beaten the Panthers in their only loss and stand at 4-0.

If I’m totally wrong in this game, I still think the +3 is a definite value play. Buffalo has played toe-to-toe with the likes of Carolina, Denver and Atlanta the past three weeks. Cincinnati does not appear to be on the same level with those teams at this point. Both have gone 1-3 Over/Under in their four games and this one doesn’t have the look of a high-scoring affair with that 39-point total. In this close one, the value is taking the points and bonus on the key three.

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5, 47)

This game opened with the Rams spotting a deuce but was immediately taken by Seahawks backers. I kind of liked the offshore number myself and then some. I made this Rams -2.5, so I’m at an even larger gap in my opinion. I’m not sure if Seattle money just loved the fact that the Seahawks looked so great against the woeful Colts and thought that would continue against a better team.

The Rams have been an offensive dynamo so far, racking up scores of 46, 20, 41 and 35 in their first four games. They appear to be able to hang with whoever comes their way. Seattle is 2-2 and it hasn’t really played the toughest schedule.

With a 47 as a total in this game, there’s an expectation that scoring will be high. I’m not sure Seattle can keep up with the Rams at this point in the season if this gets to be a score fest. At -1.5 all you’re asking either team to do is win the game. That being the case, such a low number on the better team seems to be a good value play.

Returning home after a big win in Dallas, the Rams may even have a home-field advantage if enough people come to watch. If you think the Seahawks have suddenly turned things around, take the points ASAP before this line goes down any further.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL notebook: Panthers' Newton makes sexist remark
October 4, 2017

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton made a sexist remark toward a female reporter on Wednesday, saying it was "funny to hear a female" ask a question about route running.

Newton smirked as Jourdan Rodrigue, a reporter for the Charlotte Observer, asked the following question:

"Cam, I know you take a lot of pride in seeing your receivers play well," Rodrigue said. "Devin Funchess has seemed to really embrace the physicality of his routes and getting those extra yards. Does that give you a little bit of enjoyment to see him kind of truck sticking people out there?"

Newton muffled a smile before providing his answer.

"It's funny to hear a female talk about routes like -- it's funny," the 28-year-old Newton said before discussing Funches' development with the team.

Rodrigue did not find the humor in Newton's assessment, as evidenced by her posts on social media.

--Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was back on the practice field with teammates for the first time since undergoing right shoulder surgery in January.

Luck's return date is still uncertain, but he was seen throwing passes in front of the media for the first time since Week 17 of last season. The 28-year-old Luck, who already has been ruled out for Sunday's home game against the San Francisco 49ers, acknowledged he is not fully back.

Luck offered no specifics on when he would play in a game this season but said he is "surrounded by really good people" and "very encouraged" with his progress.

--New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski was listed as questionable to play in Thursday's road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a thigh injury.

Gronkowski was limited in Wednesday's practice after being a full participant in each of the previous two days for New England (2-2). The 28-year-old leads the Patriots in receiving yards (318) to go along with his 20 catches and two touchdowns in four games.

Gronkowski played in all 70 of the team's offensive snaps in a 33-30 loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. He did not mention an injury when meeting with reporters on Tuesday.

--Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman may be dealing with more than a rib fracture suffered in Monday night's game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Norman also sustained small damage to his lung lining during the 29-20 loss, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported.

With the Redskins on their bye week, Norman has not been ruled out to return when the team takes the field in Week 6 against the San Francisco 49ers on Oct. 15, according to the report.

--Houston Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Week after passing for four touchdowns and running for another score in the 57-14 victory over the Tennessee Titans.

In his third career NFL start on Sunday, Watson completed 25 of 34 passes for 283 yards, with one interception and a 125.0 passer rating. He also ran for 24 yards on four attempts in setting an NFL record for most total touchdowns by a rookie with five.

The NFL also announced that Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley earned the NFC offensive honor after he recorded 215 yards from scrimmage (121 rushing, 94 receiving) in the 35-30 win against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4. He caught a 53-yard touchdown in the third quarter.

--The New York Jets placed rookie outside linebacker Dylan Donahue on injured reserve with an elbow injury.

Donahue suffered the injury while blocking on a punt return in overtime during the Jets' 23-20 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

The Jets also signed defensive lineman Ed Stinson and outside linebacker Obum Gwacham. The 6-4, 287-pound Stinson appeared in 29 games with the Cardinals over three seasons and totaled 22 tackles while Gwacham played in 10 games and recorded 2.5 sacks for the New Orleans Saints in 2015-16.

--The New York Giants promoted center Jon Halapio from their practice squad with Weston Richburg in the concussion protocol.

To make room on the roster, the Giants waived linebacker Deontae Skinner, who was re-signed last week and was inactive in Sunday's 25-23 loss at Tampa Bay.

Halapio was signed to a reserve/future contract by the Giants on Jan. 9. He played in all four preseason games, including a start at left guard in the finale at the New England Patriots, before he was waived on Sept. 2. Halapio was signed to the practice squad the following day.

--The Cleveland Browns signed wide receiver Bryce Treggs off the Philadelphia Eagles' practice squad.

To make room on the roster, the Browns waived wide receiver Jordan Leslie with an injury designation. Leslie injured his hamstring against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.

The 6-foot, 185-pound Treggs is in his second NFL season out of California. Originally signed by the San Francisco 49ers as an undrafted free agent in 2016, Treggs appeared in nine games with the Eagles last year. He registered three receptions for 80 yards and two carries for seven yards.