The Bum's 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
September 29, 2017

Is there such a thing as home field advantage?

Well we certainly saw evidence of it last weekend. That doesn’t mean that it’s a hardline rule for the 2017 season. This is the last week where you should be playing softly. After this weekend, there should be enough discernable data to seriously deep dive in to the serious business of NFL betting.

For now, here are the best five games to bet this coming weekend at BetOnline.ag!

Carolina Panthers +9 over New England Patriots (1:00 p.m. ET)

A lot of times, betting can be about numbers, but every now and then you can simply make a recommendation on a hunch. The Patriots have demolished the scoreboard throughout the season, but they’re also the worst scoring defence in the league by a mile. Their 31.7 points against per game is dead last in the stat categories.

Say what you will about Carolina, but there are some dangerous weapons here. If Cam Newton has any life in him, and is Christian McAffery is the weapons he’s supposed to be, then we’ll see it in this game. All in all, this is just too many points. That being said, if you want to take the Patriots, you are more than welcome to. They’re 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 home stands.

Detroit Lions +2 over Minnesota Vikings (1:00 p.m. ET)

Case Keenum’s offensive explosion last weekend against Tampa has sent the oddsmakers in to a frenzy, which is totally fair. But don’t these things happen occasionally? The Vikings are an extremely talented football team with weapons all over the place, but when you’re putting the keys in the hands of Case Keenum it’s really hard to convince yourself that it’s a good bet.

The Vikings are the atypical “good at home, bad on the road” team so far this season but it’s very difficult for me to suggest that they’re better than Detroit. Almost every poll in the country suggests that the Falcons are the second best team in the league, and Detroit nearly took their lunch money if it wasn’t for the blindness of the referees.

This game will be close, but Detroit is angling up as one of the best teams in the NFL with a relentless offensive attack that just doesn’t seem to have any quit built into it. Add to the mix that the Vikings are just 1-4 ATS when playing division rivals and you know where your money should lean.

Buffalo Bills +8 over Atlanta Falcons (1:00 p.m. ET)

The fear with betting on the Bills here is simple. They’re not what you would call an explosive offense, and you virtually need to be in order to keep up with Matt Ryan playing at home. The Falcons are simply a strong play, having gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. By all accounts, this is a game where you should bet firmly with the Falcons. But the Bills have been unusually scrappy and beating down on Denver was a proving ground for them.

They have the ability to stuff run games, which is secretly what Atlanta is built around. If Buffalo turns this in to a war of attrition, they can easily cover this big line. You have to pay to find out if Buffalo is good or not, so is a casual reminder that gambling is not meant for the feint of heart.

Baltimore Ravens +3 over Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 p.m. ET)

The betting public is swaying in Pittsburgh’s direction in a classic overreaction to a weird game. The Ravens lost to the Jaguars in London and everyone was ready to hit send on their “Joe Flacco sucks” tweets before the game was even over. As bad as that game was, what we’ve learned from those London games is that they offer no long term benefits for gambling trends.

Baltimore is also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing division rivals, and there is nothing going on in Pittsburgh that suggests that this team is ready to take on anybody with a running game. Terrence West and Buck Allen are ready for big games, as the Steelers – who couldn’t beat the Bears last weekend – continue their spiral in to hell.

Denver Broncos -3 over Oakland Raiders (4:25 p.m. ET)

One of the definite things we learned last weekend was that homefield advantage is real. Denver is 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games, and are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games with the Raiders. Oakland started off as one of the darlings of the NFL betting world, but they struggled mightily on the road in Washington. So this is an easy choice for most. Denver might be the 2017 team of “automatic bet at home, automatic bet-off on the road”.

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 4
September 29, 2017

Week 3 Record: 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS
Overall Record: 9-9 SU, 9-9 ATS

Panthers at Patriots (-9, 49) – 1:00 PM EST

Carolina
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Panthers’ offense hasn’t scored many points recently as Carolina has been limited to 22 points the last two weeks. In an embarrassing Week 3 home setback to New Orleans, the Saints dominated the Panthers, 34-13 as five-point underdogs, while Carolina has reached the end zone once in the past two games. Carolina is listed in the ‘dog role for the first time this season, while posting a 3-1 ATS mark when receiving points on the road in 2016.

New England
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/2

The Patriots pulled out a last-minute victory over the Texans last Sunday thanks to Tom Brady’s heroics by connecting with Brandin Cooks on a 25-yard touchdown strike in a 36-33 triumph. New England failed to cash as 13 ½-point favorites, but Brady continued to light up the stat sheet by throwing for 378 yards and five touchdowns. The Pats are 0-2 ATS at Gillette Stadium this season following a 7-2-1 ATS mark at home in 2016.

Best Bet: Panthers +9

Rams at Cowboys (-6 ½, 47 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1

The Rams have been one of the early surprises at 2-1, coming off a thrilling 41-39 victory over the 49ers in Week 3. Los Angeles has eclipsed the 40-point mark twice this season, as quarterback Jared Goff has equaled his touchdown total from 2016 by tossing five TD’s, which took him eight games to reach last season. The Rams have yet to be listed in the underdog role this season, as L.A. put together a 3-7-2 ATS record as a ‘dog in 2016.

Dallas
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Cowboys return home following a split on the road the last two weeks at Denver and Arizona. Dallas rallied for a 28-17 victory in the desert on Monday night behind two touchdown passes and a touchdown run from quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys have stumbled to a 7-12 ATS record as a home favorite since 2014, but picked up a win in this role back in Week 1 over the Giants. Dallas has won each of the past three meetings with the Rams since 2011, including a pair of home blowouts in 2011 and 2013.

Best Bet: Cowboys -6 ½

Titans (-2 ½, 44) at Texans – 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

Tennessee’s offense struggled in the season opening loss to Oakland by scoring only one touchdown, but the Titans have responded by posting 70 points in the last two victories over the Jaguars and Seahawks. The Titans overcame a slow first half in each win, scoring 55 points of those 70 points following halftime, including 21 points in the third quarter of a 33-27 triumph over Seattle in Week 3. DeMarco Murray erased a poor effort in the first two weeks (69 yards) by rushing for 115 yards last Sunday, including a 75-yard scamper to give Tennessee a 16-point advantage.

Houston
Record: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Texans hung with the Patriots for 59 minutes last week, but fell short in a 36-33 defeat to fall to 1-2. Houston cashed for the second straight week as a road underdog, while limiting New England to 59 yards rushing on 20 carries. Deshaun Watson couldn’t outduel Tom Brady, but the Texans’ rookie quarterback broke the 300-yard mark and threw two touchdown passes as Houston lost at New England for the third time since the start of last season. The Texans have dominated this series over the years by winning eight of the past 10 meetings, but split the two matchups with the Titans last season.

Best Bet: Tennessee -2 ½

Bills at Falcons (-8, 48 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo
Record: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

Only two teams in the NFL have covered all three games this season. Kansas City is one, while surprisingly Buffalo is the other, as the Bills are coming off a home underdog victory over the Broncos last Sunday. Buffalo’s defense has been terrific through three weeks by allowing 37 points, while giving up two touchdowns. The Bills have struggled on the road against NFC opponents the last few seasons by compiling a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS record, including a 9-3 setback at Carolina in Week 2 as 6 ½-point underdogs.

Atlanta
Record: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Falcons dodged a bullet last week by holding off the Lions, 30-26, but managed a cover as three-point favorites. Atlanta gave away an early 14-point lead, but Matt Ryan hooked up with Taylor Gabriel on a 40-yard scoring connection to put the Falcons ahead for good. Ryan was intercepted three times, while Detroit’s final touchdown was wiped off the board following a review to give Atlanta its second 3-0 start in three seasons. The Falcons have won eight of their last 11 home games, but two of those defeats came to AFC opponents last season, while Atlanta has cashed the OVER in 11 consecutive home contests.

Best Bet: Falcons -8

Giants at Buccaneers (-3, 44 ½) – 4:05 PM EST

New York
Record: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Giants looked listless offensively for the first 11 quarters of the season, but New York busted out for 24 points in the fourth quarter at Philadelphia last Sunday. Unfortunately, the G-Men couldn’t hold onto a 24-21 lead as the Eagles kicked a pair of late field goals, including a 61-yarder at the gun to send New York to 0-3. The Giants covered for the first time this season as five-point underdogs, but dropped to 1-7 SU in their last eight in the role of a road ‘dog.

Tampa Bay
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

After the Buccaneers blew out the Bears in their season opener, Tampa Bay’s offense was shut down at Minnesota last week, 34-17 as the Bucs trailed 21-3 at halftime and allowed nearly 500 yards of offense to the Vikings. The Bucs hope home is where the heart is as Tampa Bay has won five straight games at Raymond James Stadium since starting last season 0-4 at the friendly confines. Tampa Bay has lost five straight matchups with New York since 2006, including three consecutive home setbacks to the Giants.

Best Bet: Buccaneers -3

Raiders at Broncos (-3, 46 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Raiders looked solid the first two weeks of the season in victories over the Titans and Jets. However, Oakland put up a dud last Sunday night at Washington as the Redskins outgained the Raiders, 472-128 in a 27-10 drubbing. The Raiders last dropped consecutive games in the regular season back in 2015 as Jack Del Rio’s team owns a 6-0 record off a defeat in this span, while posting an 11-3 ATS mark as a road underdog the last two seasons.

Denver
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1

The Broncos also suffered their first loss of the season last week in a 26-16 setback at Buffalo following a pair of home victories. Denver has outgained all three of its opponents, but two Trevor Siemian interceptions and a costly Von Miller penalty cost the Broncos a chance at its third consecutive 3-0 start. Last season, the Broncos and Raiders split a pair of matchups with the home teams winning each time, as Denver has captured eight of the past 10 meetings since 2012.

Best Bet: Raiders +3

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Best Bet
September 29, 2017

NFL Week 4 SNF Betting Preview
Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks

After being spoiled by some great matchups – definitely on paper – during the first three weeks of Sunday Night Football, Week 4's game kinda falls flat.

In fairness, schedule makers were hoping this would be an Andrew Luck vs Russell Wilson non-conference showdown, but with Luck still on the shelf, this game looks like it could end up being a one-sided beatdown that Seattle fans hopes sparks the rest of the Seahawks season.

Indy is on a 2-0 ATS run entering Week 4, and with the unimpressive way Seattle has played through three weeks, there will likely be quite a few bettors willing to grab all those points with the road dog.

BetOnline.ag Odds: Seattle (-13); Total set at 41.5

It's always tempting to take double digit underdogs in today's NFL because anything can happen any given week and it's not surprising to see big favorites get conservative with a big lead late and get back-doored on the spread. According to VegasInsider.com, a little more than 60% of bettors have already grabbed all those points with Indianapolis for this game as they likely see them as way too many to lay for a 1-2 Seattle team that struggled to beat the lowly 49ers in thier only other home game.

Those same bettors have likely conveniently forgotten about the 46-9 beating the Colts took in their only road game of 2017, and although QB Jacoby Brissett wasn't responsible for most of that damage, I'm not so sure he has much more success up in Seattle either.

Public underdogs are ones I love to fade in the NFL, and as of now the Colts definitely sit as a public underdog. Granted most of the reasoning you'll here from bettors with a Colts +13 ticket in their pockets have more to do with Seattle – haven't played well all year, scraped by San Francisco, their O-Line sucks, too many points to lay – then they do with the Colts. That's not a great way to attack a NFL point spread as it speaks to the lack of strong reasons why to play ON a specific team.

Yes, the Colts have gone 2-0 ATS the last two weeks and nearly won both outright, but they beat the Cardinals and Browns at home. Neither of those teams can really compare to the level of talent Seattle has on paper, especially when you stick Seattle on their own field with one of the best home-field advantages in the game.

So while the O-line play is concerning for Seattle, they did seem to tighten things up in that regard last week against the Titans. Russell Wilson was sacked only once that game, and while the game script dictated he throw a bit more, his 373 passing yards and 4 TD's was a very positive sign that this Seahawks offense is starting to become a balanced and dynamic attack. And with Seattle's 0-3 ATS record this season another reason why a small majority are leaning towards the Colts, this is just the type of game that could end up curing everything that ails the Seahawks in one big swoop.

Indy's Jacoby Brissett is still less than a month into his tenure at Indianapolis, and the defense he's going to go up against here quite possibly could rip him to shreds. The Rams have a similar build to Seattle's defense, and that Rams front seven dominated Indy's O-Line all throughout Week 1's game.

Seattle is more then capable of doing the same thing here, the difference being Seattle's secondary is light years better then what the Rams bring to the table, and they've got a lot more continuity on the back end as well. Combine all that with the noise and energy the stadium will have for a primetime game, and I'm not sure we see more than 10 points again from this Colts team on the road.

So with Seattle on a 7-2 ATS run off a SU loss, 5-1 ATS at home against a team with a losing record on the road, and a 22-6-2 ATS mark after Russell Wilson finds his passing game and throws for 250+ yards, I've got no problem laying all this chalk on Sunday Night Football. And while this Week 4 SNF game might not have the same high-profile the first three have had, it will have one thing in common with all three of those games: the home team winning by double digits and covering the point spread.

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Best Bet: Seattle -13

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Colts at Seahawks
September 28, 2017

The Seattle Seahawks haven't covered a spread yet this season, but they come in Sunday night as large 13-point home favorites against the Indianapolis Colts, who are still without QB Andrew Luck. The last time the Colts were on the road they got blasted 46-9 in Week 1, but they made a QB change with Jacoby Brissett and have now covered their last two games.

The last time the Seahawks were at home was Week 2 against the 49ers, a team with a similar low rating as the Colts. Seattle was -13.5, but it took their first TD of the season late in the fourth quarter to squeak out a 12-9 win. That's their only win of the season and the Rams are currently in first-place of the NFC West.

It's been an odd few weeks watching these 2017 Seahawks. The offensive line can't open holes or pass block, they can't score -- 16 ppg ranks 27th, and the defense isn't so intimidating any more -- 146 yards rushing allowed per game ranks 30th. Head coach Pete Carroll also has to lead the league in bewildered facial expressions caught on TV. This certainly isn't the brash and confident Seahawks we've been accustomed to seeing during Carroll's years.

The question every bettor will eventually have to ask themselves is whether this is the week Seattle puts it all together and resemble the team we remember and respected. The Colts would seem like the perfect sacrificial lamb, but Brissett can make some things happen and they've made a dramatic improvement since Week 1.

Best of luck with the final betting decision made, and because it's an isolated Sunday night game, we all know we're going to have action on it no matter how unattractive the match-up is. That's in our DNA and who most of us are.

LINE MOVEMENT

When CG Technology sports books opened spreads on every game through the first 16 weeks, this match-up had the Seahawks -7 with expectations that Luck would play. When they opened the number Sunday night they came with -12.5 and on Monday morning they adjusted to -13 which is the number every book in town was using through Thursday. CG's total at 41 is the lowest with every other book at 41.5.

ROBERTS' RATING

I've got Seattle 8.5 points better than Indianapolis on a neutral field and the Seattle's field worth at least 3 points which makes my number -11.5 and possibly as high as -12 depending on how much given for one of the strongest home field edges in the league.

ANDREW LUCK'S VALUE

Part of Luck's worth rests with who his back-up is, but it winds up being 7-points to the number which is one of the highest player point values. With Luck starting, the Colts are on par with the Titans and Texans ratings within the division. Without Luck, the Colts have the worst rating in the NFL. Perhaps only Aaron Rodgers has more value to the number. Luck played in all 48 regular games his first three years, but has played in only 22 of the Colts past 35 games.

RECENT MEETINGS

They've played three times since 2005 with the latest coming at Indianapolis in 2013, Luck and Russell Wilson's second year in the league. Seattle was a 3-point road favorite and jumped out to a 12-0 lead. Marshawn Lynch and Wilson both rushed for over 100 yards and controlled most of the game, but the Colts took their first lead with 8:55 to go and ended up winning 34-28 which sent the game Over the total of 43.5.

LAST WEEK

The Colts grabbed their first win of the season last week, 31-28, at home against the Browns. Jacoby Brissett threw for 259 yards and didn't throw an interception. He threw for a TD and ran for two. T.Y. Hilton made a guarantee of sorts during the week that the Colts would win and he helped make it true with seven receptions, 153 yards and a TD. The Browns were a 1-point favorite, the first time they had been favored since 2015.

Russell Wilson threw for 373 yards and had four TDs with no interceptions last week at Tennessee, but most of it was out of desperation as Titans three third-quarter TDs put the game away and won 33-27. The eye-opener from this game was how the Titans offensive line bullied the Seahawks defensive with 195 yards rushing. Neither team had a turnover.

DIVISIONAL ODDS

Odds to win NFC West: Seattle 4/11, Rams 4/1, Cardinals 9/2, 49ers 150/1
Odds to win AFC South: Titans 5/8, Texans 4/1, Jaguars 13/4, Colts 15/1

SUPER BOWL ODDS

The Westgate opened the Colts at 25/1 to win the Super Bowl back in February with expectations that Andrew Luck would be healthy, but between him being out and the Colts looking ragged they are now 200/1 after three weeks. While the Colts are still mathematically alive, the sports books will try to tempt bettors with juicy odds. Seattle is a steady 12/1 to win the Super Bowl with the Falcons (6/1) and Packers (8/1) both having lower odds in the NFC.

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate posts next weeks lines on Tuesday each week and in Week 5 action they've got Seattle as 3-point road favorites at the Rams. The Colts are 2.5-point home favorites against the 49ers in a match-up between two of the lowest rated teams in the league.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Injury Report
September 29, 2017

BUFFALO BILLS at ATLANTA FALCONS

BUFFALO BILLS

--Out: T Cordy Glenn (foot, ankle)

--Questionable: DE Shaq Lawson (groin)

ATLANTA FALCONS

--Out: S Ricardo Allen (concussion), LB Vic Beasley (hamstring), T Ryan Schraeder (concussion), DE Courtney Upshaw (ankle, knee), RB Terron Ward (neck, shoulder)

CAROLINA PANTHERS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Out: LB Jeremy Cash (calf), DE Daeshon Hall (knee), C Ryan Kalil (neck), WR Curtis Samuel (back), CB Daryl Worley (shoulder)

Practice Report

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Doubtful: RB Rex Burkhead (ribs)

--Questionable: T Marcus Cannon (ankle, concussion), LB Dont'a Hightower (knee), S Brandon King (hamstring), CB Eric Rowe (groin), WR Matt Slater (hamstring)

CINCINNATI BENGALS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: TE Tyler Eifert (back), LB Jordan Evans (hamstring), WR John Ross (knee)

--Doubtful: S Derron Smith (ankle)

--Questionable: G Trey Hopkins (knee)

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: LB Jamie Collins (concussion)

--Questionable: WR Sammie Coates (hamstring), DE Myles Garrett (ankle), DT Danny Shelton (calf), TE Randall Telfer (knee)

DETROIT LIONS at MINNESOTA VIKINGS

DETROIT LIONS

--Out: G Zac Kerin (knee), RB Dwayne Washington (quadricep)

--Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (knee), S Don Carey (knee), LB Jarrad Davis (concussion, neck), WR Kenny Golladay (hamstring), C Travis Swanson (ankle), S Tavon Wilson (shoulder)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

--Out: QB Sam Bradford (knee)

--Questionable: T Rashod Hill (knee)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at NEW YORK JETS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Out: LB Lerentee McCray (knee), WR Jaelen Strong (hamstring)

--Questionable: S Tashaun Gipson (knee), LB Donald Payne (hamstring)

NEW YORK JETS

--Out: RB Matt Forte (knee, toe), TE Jordan Leggett (knee)

--Doubtful: LB Josh Martin (ankle), T Brandon Shell (shoulder)

--Questionable: DE Muhammad Wilkerson (shoulder)

LOS ANGELES RAMS at DALLAS COWBOYS

LOS ANGELES RAMS

--Out: S Lamarcus Joyner (hamstring)

--Questionable: S Cody Davis (quadricep), C John Sullivan (hip)

DALLAS COWBOYS

--Questionable: CB Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring), CB Nolan Carroll (concussion), S Kavon Frazier (knee), G Chaz Green (hip), LB Anthony Hitchens (knee), LB Sean Lee (hamstring), DT Stephen Paea (knee)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at MIAMI DOLPHINS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Out: LB Ben Heeney (knee)

--Questionable: T Terron Armstead (shoulder), CB Sterling Moore (chest), WR Willie Snead (hamstring), T Zach Strief (knee)

MIAMI DOLPHINS

--Out: T Eric Smith (knee)

--Doubtful: DT Jordan Phillips (ankle)

--Questionable: RB Jay Ajayi (knee), LB Chase Allen (neck), LB Kiko Alonso (shoulder), G Isaac Asiata (ankle), LS John Denney (hamstring), WR Jakeem Grant (ankle), LB Rey Maualuga (hamstring), WR Kenny Stills (hand), CB Alterraun Verner (hamstring)

NEW YORK GIANTS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

NEW YORK GIANTS

--Questionable: LB Jonathan Casillas (ankle, wrist), RB Orleans Darkwa (back), C Brett Jones (hip), DE Olivier Vernon (ankle)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--Out: LB Kwon Alexander (hamstring)

--Doubtful: LB Lavonte David (ankle), S T.J. Ward (hip)

--Questionable: DE Robert Ayers (knee), CB Brent Grimes (shoulder), DT Gerald McCoy (ankle), DE Noah Spence (shoulder), G J.R. Sweezy (back)

OAKLAND RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Questionable: CB Gareon Conley (shin), WR Michael Crabtree (chest), S Keith McGill (foot)

DENVER BRONCOS

--Out: QB Paxton Lynch (right shoulder)

--Questionable: WR Cody Latimer (knee)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--Out: DT Fletcher Cox (calf), CB Ronald Darby (ankle), S Corey Graham (hamstring), DT Destiny Vaeao (wrist), S Jaylen Watkins (hamstring)

--Questionable: LB Jordan Hicks (ankle), S Rodney McLeod (hamstring)

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

--Out: WR Mike Williams (back)

--Questionable: T Joe Barksdale (foot), RB Melvin Gordon (knee), TE Sean McGrath (foot), LB Hayes Pullard (knee)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Questionable: S Sean Davis (ankle), G Ramon Foster (thumb), T Marcus Gilbert (hamstring), LB James Harrison (illness), S Michael Mitchell (hamstring)

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--Out: CB Jaylen Hill (thigh), DT Brandon Williams (foot), TE Maxx Williams (ankle)

--Questionable: TE Benjamin Watson (calf)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at ARIZONA CARDINALS

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--Out: LB Reuben Foster (ankle), S Eric Reid (knee)

--Questionable: LB Brock Coyle (concussion), RB Carlos Hyde (hip), RB Kyle Juszczyk (concussion), S Jaquiski Tartt (concussion), DE Pita Taumoepenu (ankle)

ARIZONA CARDINALS

--Out: G Alex Boone (chest), G Mike Iupati (tricep), DT Robert Nkemdiche (calf)

--Questionable: WR John Brown (quadricep), T D.J. Humphries (knee), WR J.J. Nelson (hamstring)

TENNESSEE TITANS at HOUSTON TEXANS

TENNESSEE TITANS

--Out: S Johnathan Cyprien (hamstring), WR Corey Davis (hamstring)

--Questionable: DT Jurrell Casey (groin)

HOUSTON TEXANS

--Out: CB Kevin Johnson (knee), C Greg Mancz (knee)

--Questionable: CB Marcus Burley (knee)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS on Sunday night

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

--Out: C Ryan Kelly (foot), QB Andrew Luck (right shoulder), RB Marlon Mack (shoulder), WR Chester Rogers (hamstring), LB Anthony Walker (hamstring), CB Quincy Wilson (knee)

--Questionable: S Matthias Farley (quadricep), CB Chris Milton (hamstring)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

--Doubtful: RB C.J. Prosise (ankle)

--Questionable: WR Doug Baldwin (groin), CB Neiko Thorpe (ankle)

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 4
September 30, 2017


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bengals are 11-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 2004 on the road coming off a road game where they had at least 24 points.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Lions are 0-12 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since October 2006 on the road coming off a loss where they scored at least 24 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since November 23, 2014 at home coming off a road game where Doug Baldwin had 5+ receptions.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Colts are 13-0-1 OU (9.9 ppg) since October 22, 1995 and as a dog coming off a home game where they had at least 22 first downs.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chargers are 0-10 OU (-6.0 ppg) since November 1995 at home coming off a home game where they failed to cover by at least seven points.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-14 OU (-10.07 ppg) on the road off a loss in which they committed at least five fewer penalties than their previous game.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 4
September 30, 2017

After watching the ‘under’ go 19-11-1 through the first two weeks of the season, the ‘over’ struck back in Week 3 with an 11-5 record and a couple of those results featured some fortunate late surges. For those of you backing the ‘under’ in the Eagles-Giants and Seahawks-Titans last Sunday, please accept my apologies for your tough losses. New York and Philadelphia combined for 37 in the fourth quarter while Seattle and Tennessee nonchalantly posted 44 between them in the second-half of their game. Heading into Week 4, the ‘under’ is 24-22-1 on the season.

Quick Observations

-- Through three weeks, we’ve had six totals close in the fifties and the ‘over/under’ has gone 3-3 in those games. Meanwhile, there have been five totals close in the thirties and the ‘under’ has produced a 3-2 mark in those results.

-- The Saints, Broncos, Rams and Patriots have all seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 this season. New England has also watched the high side cash in the first-half of its three games too.

-- Including last week’s result between Jacksonville and Baltimore, the ‘over’ is now 10-8 in the NFL International Series and the high side has been on a great run (10-3) lately in the United Kingdom. New Orleans and Miami meet this Sunday from London at 9:30 a.m. ET and the total is listed at 50 ½ as of Saturday morning. The Dolphins have played overseas three times and have gone 1-2 while scoring 10, 38 and 14 points. New Orleans made a trip many years ago (2008) and posted a 37-32 shootout win.

-- Sticking with London, the Jaguars posted 44 in its win over the Ravens last week. Since 2014, Jacksonville is averaging 17.8 PPG after a win that includes a 16-point effort in Week 2 versus Tennessee. Their total (38) against the Jets this Sunday is the lowest on the board in Week 4.

-- The Steelers are the only team in the league to see the ‘under’ cash in all of their games (3-0). Going back to last season, Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging 19.8 points per game in its last five.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday morning based off the Week 4 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Carolina at New England: 47 to 49
L.A. Rams at Dallas: 46 to 48 ½
Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets: 40 to 38
Cincinnati at Cleveland: 40 to 41 ½
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: 45 to 42

For the second consecutive week, we’ve seen the total on the Steelers come down and we asked Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu if they put out a bad opener on Pittsburgh’s matchup at Baltimore.

He answered, “I guess we’ll find out Sunday, but I don’t think it was too far off. Bettors could be overreacting a bit to the Steelers lack of consistency offensively, and they all remember the stinker Joe Flacco and the Ravens put up in London last Sunday morning. It probably should have been 44 or 43 ½.”

Surprisingly, the other AFC North matchup on tap in Week 4 between Cincinnati and Cleveland is rising even though this has been known as a strong ‘under’ series.

“This one was probably opened a bit low, should have been 41 from the start. The Browns offense hasn’t looked completely inept as (DeShone) Kizer has been moving the ball, but the turnovers have hurt. Cincinnati’s attack looks to have a bit more flow with the new offensive coordinator (Bill Lazor). There is just too much talent on that offense to be stuck in the sand like it was to start the season,” explained Cooley.

Along with the ‘under’ in the Ravens-Steelers, Cooley told VegasInsider.com that the largest liabilities at BookMaker.eu for Week 4 are the ‘under’ in the Jacksonville-N.Y. Jets and the ‘over’ in the L.A. Rams-Dallas matchups.

Divisional Action

The ‘under’ has gone 10-4 in divisional games through the first three weeks and a couple of the ‘over’ tickets that connected have been very fortunate – Week 2 (Titans-Jaguars) and Week 3 (Giants-Eagles). If you’re keeping records, the Broncos-Chargers (Week 1) wasn’t exactly a shootout and last week’s results between New Orleans and Carolina made bettors put in a full 60 minutes to cash the high side.

Detroit at Minnesota: This series has watched the ‘under’ cash in six of the last seven encounters and that includes both meetings last season. The Vikings have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 at home this season and they’re averaging 31.5 PPG in those games. Which version of Case Keenum shows up on Sunday? Detroit has helped its ‘over’ mark (2-1) this season with defensive or special team touchdowns in each of its first three games.

Tennessee at Houston: No major trends in this matchup with the total going 2-2 the last two seasons but the opener (44) made me do a bit of a double-take. Even though both clubs posted 33 points apiece in Week 3, I thought this total would be shaded around 42 to 43. Texans rookie QB Deshaun Watson has been getting better and the Titans are ranked 26th in total defense (367.3 YPG). The sharps rode the Tennessee ‘under’ the last two weeks and got burned in both of them despite being on the right side. You wonder if they’ll chase late to the low side again on Sunday.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: The ‘under’ has gone 5-1 in the last six meetings between the pair and Cleveland has been held to 10 points or less in four of those games. Both clubs put up solid offensive numbers last week in losses but the defensive units remain the strengths of these winless clubs.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: The number on this game keeps dropping (see above) and it’s hard to justify an ‘over’ play between these teams based on their current form. The Steelers (21.3 PPG) have looked pedestrian this season by their high offensive standards and the Ravens (17 PPG) haven’t shown any consistency and were fortunate not to get blanked in London last Sunday. Pittsburgh has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 this season and it’s had trouble scoring (14 and 17 points) in its last two trips to Baltimore, both easy ‘under’ winners.

San Francisco at Arizona: These teams have seen the totals produce a stalemate (2-2) in the last four meetings. This week’s number is hovering between 44 and 45 at most shops and that could look a tad high considering Arizona (18.7 PPG) hasn’t looked sharp offensively. Plus, San Francisco was held to 12 combined points in its first two games before posting 39 in Week 3.

Total Angle to Watch: A couple seasons ago, Total Talk readers followed a “Thursday Night” trend where you would find out who played at home the previous Thursday and the play the ‘over’ in their next games. At one point, the system was hitting higher than 80 percent but it leveled off last season. I bring it up because it’s 2-0 this season (New England – Week 2, Cincinnati – Week 3) and the 49ers fit the situation this week.

Oakland at Denver: This is a tough matchup to handicap and even though Denver has watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 this season, this is the highest total (46) it has had posted this season. Oakland’s offense isn’t clicking right now (299 YPG) and it will be playing its third road game in four weeks. Raiders QB Derek Carr has struggled against the Broncos (2-3) in his young career and he hasn’t helped the cause (6 TDs, 4 INTs, 12 sacks). It’s been tough to move the ball on the Denver defense (263 YPG) but the same can’t be said for the Oakland unit (371 YPG) and Jack Del Rio’s club still hasn’t registered an interception yet this season. Make a note that the Broncos haven’t had any issues moving the chains and they lead the league in 3rd down conversion percentage (52.3%).

Under the Lights

The primetime games have had a nice back and forth in the totals market so far and our records have the ‘over’ with a 6-5 edge through 11 games and that includes this past Thursday’s high side winner between the Packers and Bears. This weekend, we’ll break down a pair of non-conference matchups.

Indianapolis at Seattle: The Colts first trip to the West Coast watched them get trounced 46-9 by the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1 and the oddsmakers believe Seattle (-13) will deal out similar woodshed treatment in this spot. After looking awful offensively the first two weeks of the season, both the Colts (31) and Seahawks (27) exploded last Sunday. QB Jacoby Brissett has made Indianapolis look more competitive in two home games but a trip to CenturyLink Field isn’t easy. Seattle has held four of its last five opponents at home to less than 10 points.

Washington at Kansas City: High total (49 ½) for the MNF matchup and you might want to be careful with this side and total. While the Chiefs have looked solid (3-0), the offense has declined the past two weeks (27, 24) after looking like a juggernaut in the 2017 season opening win (42-27) over New England. Meanwhile, Washington’s defense (276 YPG) is underrated and it’s only allowing 15 PPG the last two weeks. The Redskins had a knack of scoring on the road last season (25.8 PPG) and they posted 27 at the Rams in Week 2 this year. However, the Chiefs have only allowed one team to score more than 21 points in their last 10 games and that defensive effort has helped the ‘under’ go 7-3 in that span.

Fearless Predictions

After picking one easy winner and one easy loser on Sunday, I was hoping to split the week but the Cowboys exploded with touchdowns instead of field goals and that result kept us in the red ($220). Through three weeks, the deficit is $240. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: San Francisco-Arizona 44 ½

Best Under: Jacksonville-N.Y. Jets 38 ½

Best Team Total: Over N.Y. Giants 21 ½

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 40 L.A. Rams-Dallas
Over 39 Philadelphia-L.A. Chargers
Under 49 Indianapolis-Seattle

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NFL Week 4 Essentials
September 30, 2017

Week 3 packed the crazy and spread it all over the place, starting with 80 combined points in a game featuring the Rams and 49ers and closing with the Cowboys coming back from the dead in Arizona. Mix in presidential tweets, demonstrations of solidarity, an ill-timed (or well-timed) post-review 10-second run-off and multiple upsets that helped the books to one of the most profitable Sundays in history, and wild is the only way to describe what type of action we're coming off.

The Jets, Bears, Jaguars, Saints, Bills and Redskins beat previously unbeaten teams. The Bengals were a Green Bay rally from joining that list.

"Absolutely loving the return of NFL parity," Bookmaker.eu oddsmaker Scott Toomey said. "It has been a profitable season for BookMaker.eu thus far, a complete 180 compared to what we endured last year."

Let's get into thought process mode in handicapping Week 4's matchups:

Sunday, Oct. 2

New Orleans at Miami: The Dolphins still haven't played at home this season after Hurricane Irma wiped out their Week 1 date with Tampa Bay, and it definitely wasn't part of the plan to debut in England before Miami Gardens. For Jay Ajayi, at least, it's a homecoming, but the London-born running back is dealing with a knee issue that limited him to 16 yards on 11 carries last week against the Jets.

Adam Gase called his team's offensive efffort "garbage" after they failed to score until the final play in a 20-6 loss in New York, so it's important to see whether Jay Cutler can get his new teammates to rally against one of the league's most vulnerable defenses, who come off their first solid showing of the season after picking off Cam Newton three times. They had a pair of practice squad members up to supply depth in the secondary, but will get rookie Marshon Lattimore back from a concussion and should be better in the back.

Drew Brees threw for 220 yards and three touchdowns against a Carolina defense that had given up just three points in each of their first two games, so he's got some momentum building with a new-look offense. Versatile rookie back Alvin Kamara scored New Orleans' first rushing touchdown from 25 yards out to put the cherry on top of the 34-13 win in Charlotte, while Brees has now thrown for scores to five different receivers. WR Willie Snead's return from suspension gives him even more options, and the potential return of tackle Terron Armstead would provide a huge boost up front.

Carolina at New England: The Patriots led the NFL in points per game allowed last year. Through three games, they've allowed teams to average a league-worst 31.7 points per game. Getting lit up by Drew Brees is one thing. Allowing Alex Smith and rookie Deshaun Watson to carve up your defense is another. Cam Newton has been dreadful since a decent showing in San Francisco in Week 1, coming off a three-pick game, so we'll see whether he can get healthy and produce here against a secondary that has given up over 300 passing yards each time out.

Kelvin Benjamin (knee) is expected to play barring a setback, but rookie speedster Curtis Samuel won't play. Center Ryan Kalil is out for the Panthers too, so we'll see whether the Patriots defense is suspect enough to help the visitors find an offensive rhythm that has eluded them. Corner Devin McCourty has given up big plays, while top LB Dont'a Hightower's absence has loomed larger than expected.

Since the nonsensical chatter about 40-year-old Tom Brady not looking the same following his rough season debut against Kansas City, he's thrown for 825 yards and eight scores while completing 74 percent of his passes. Rob Gronkowski has scored in consecutive games, while newcomer Brandin Cooks grabbed his first two last week. Rex Burkhead is doubtful, but the bigger question mark is tackle Marcus Cannon, who is listed as questionable. Carolina could be without LB Thomas Davis, but Julius Peppers, Star Lotulelei and Charles Johnson are all expected to go and try to pressure Brady.

L.A. Rams at Dallas: The Cowboys were staring a 1-2 start in the face before a flag wiped out a 14-0 Arizona lead and Phil Dawson bailed them out of being down two possessions by missing an easy field goal. Credit Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott for making the most of their opportunities and Demarcus Lawrence for throwing off the Cardinals with his pressure, but Dallas has to feel fortunate it hasn't dug itself a hole.

As things stand, the Cowboys still have Elliott available to play until the injunction against his suspension is lifted, which won't happen before he helps his team try to run on a Rams defense that ranks 29th of 32 in yards allowed on the ground per game. Star DT Aaron Donald is rounding into shape and will play just his third game here after holding out so long he missed Week 1.

L.A. has a huge edge in that it hasn't played since Sept. 21, giving it far more time to prepare than Dallas had after returning from Arizona in the early hours on Tuesday. This will be the first game outside of California for the Rams, which won their only road date at the 49ers. Receivers Sammy Watkins and Tavon Austin are likely to play after clearing concussion protocol. Center John Sullivan and safety Cody Davis are questionable, while safety Lamarcus Joyner won't play. Dallas LB Sean Lee and CB Jourdan Lewis are questionable with hamstring issues after being hurt on Monday night.

Detroit at Minnesota: Case Keenum wasn't as sharp as his numbers would indicate in last week's win against Tampa Bay, but he was effective enough to hang 369 yards and three touchdowns without a miscue, earning himself a game ball in the process. Keenum buying Sam Bradford some time to truly get healthy as he deals with knee pain, allowing Stephon Diggss and Adam Thielen to emerge as the NFL's most prolific receiving combo through three games, ranking third and second, respectively, behind only Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown in yards.

The Vikings rank third in the entire league in run defense, surrendering 62.7 yards per game, a long of just 11, and no touchdowns. Only top-ranked Denver has also not allowed a score on the ground. Detroit has done a nice job becoming more diverse in running Ameer Abdullah and working Theo Riddick out of the backfield to keep Matthew Stafford from having to drop back 50 times a game. After throwing a pick-six on his first pass of the season, he's thrown 106 without an interception, mixing in seven touchdown passes. He's also scrambled for 56 yards on just seven carries (8.0 ypc) to keep defenses honest and make the best of a rough situation up front.

Center Travis Swanson is hopeful to play, but guard Zec Kerin is out and T.J. Lang may not go, likely compounding protection issues. DE Ziggy Ansah, LB Jarrad Davis and safety Tavon Wilson are all questionable, so after coming up inches short of an upset of Atlanta, the Lions' defense is banged up as they hit the road. Stamina has been a major factor for Detroit early, as it has outscored opponents 46-26 in the second half of games, an impressive margin that would be six points wider if Golden Tate was roughly an inch taller.

Tennessee at Houston: The Texans let one get away in New England last week, but still made progress given Watson's emergence and an improved passing attack. DeAndre Hopkins will play against the Titans despite a knee issue and gets some help with talented WR Will Fuller set to make his season debut after breaking his collarbone in the second week of training camp.

The Titans pulled away to cover as a home favorite thanks to a dominant third quarter against the Seahawks, fighting off an attempted comeback. Tennessee has outscored its opposition 41-10 in the third quarter this season, a trend worth watching as it looks to impose its will on a second AFC South foe after dealing the Jaguars their only loss entering Sunday.

According to Bookmaker.eu's Cooley, "wiseguys are siding with the Titans for the fourth consecutive week. As of early Wednesday almost 60 percent of the tickets were on Tennessee, with 75 percent of the money on that side."

Running backs DeMarco Murray (hamstring) and Derrick Henry (thigh) are each listed as probable, so an offense that has helped average 35 points over the past two games should have everyone ready to play. Defensively, the Titans wll be without key safety Johnathan Cyprien due to a hamstring and are hoping Jurrell Casey can shake off a groin injury that limited him in practice this week. The Texans will be without key guard Greg Mancz, the latest issue along an offensive line hindered by Duane Brown's holdout. Veteran Jeff Allen, dealing with an ankle issue himself, is expected to slide in and likely won't be as effective.

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets: Ordinarily, this would be the most unwatchable matchup on the Week 4 schedule, but both teams dominated defensively last week and cruised to upset victories against previously unbeaten opponents. The Jags are co-leaders in the AFC South, returning from London after bullying the Ravens on both sides of the ball. They hassled Joe Flacco into his worst performance ever, holding him to 28 passing yards, while Blake Bortles hit on four touchdown throws to post a 44-7 victory.

The Jags are back on U.S. soil and are in a road favorite's role for the first time since Nov. 2011, when they dropped a Colts team quarterbacked by Curtis Painter to 0-10. They've won two of their first three games for the first time since '07, which happens to be the last time they reached the playoffs. Bortles has improved signifcantly from where he was last season and early in training camp, but he's still got a lot to prove given his body of work and history of turnovers. While an offense that has overcome season-ending injuries to top WR Allen Robinson and exciting rookie Dede Westbrook came back from their European excursion unscathed, defensive backs Jalen Ramsey (ankle) and Tashaun Gipson (knee) were both banged up but should play. Linebacker Myles Jack will also be out there, but DTs Malik Jackson and Abry Jones are questionable.

New York blanked Miami for nearly 60 minutes and did enough offensively to keep the Dolphins honest. The Jets should have DT Mo Wilkerson out there as he toils through a shoulder injury. Guard Brian Winters could miss his second straight, while tackle Brandon Shell (shoulder) is considered doubtful, which could spell trouble for QB Josh McCown. RB Matt Fote (toe) is sidelined, but backup Bilal Powell has been more effective anyway.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: With the Jets and Jags coming in off victories, this matchup is "elevated" to the league's ugliest. Both Ohio teams are winless, which guarantees us an 0-4 team barring the unlikely event of a tie. There's no question the Bengals are coming off the stronger performance, falling in Green Bay in OT after blowing a late lead they held most of the day. The Browns, favored at depleted Indianapolis, trailed most of the afternoon and made Jacoby Brissett look like the MVP version of Newton or RG III before his ACL tear.

Rookie QB DeShone Kizer leads the league with eight turnovers through three games, tossing seven interceptions. He lost his most competent receiver, Corey Colema, and has Sammie Coates (hamstring) and Kenny Britt (knee) banged up, so look for Duke Johnson and Rashad Higgins to end up being his top targets against a Bengals defense that should be at its most effective since LB Vontaze Burfict returns after serving his three-game suspension and DE Carlos Dunlap and safeties George Iloka and Shawn Williams should play.

The Bengals will again be without speedy rookie John Ross (knee), a deep threat they envisioned capitalizing on all the attention WR A.J. Green and TE Tyler Eifert receive. Eifert has also been ruled out, nursing a back injury that has really compromised Cincinnati's plans. Cleveland won't have top pick Myles Garrett back from his high ankle sprain to help pressure Andy Dalton, while DT Danny Shelton (calf) is questionable and LB Jamie Collins (concussion) remains sidelined. Cincinnati has won five straight games in the series, outscored 152-40.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Ben Roethlisberger continued to struggle on the road in last week's puzzling loss in Chicago and has now thrown 18 interceptions and 17 TDs since the start of 2015. He overthrew a wide open Martavis Bryant on the game's first play and proceeded to waste opportunities the rest of the afternoon. Recent history suggests you shouldn't hold your breath for a revival against the rival Ravens, since he's only beat them once in Baltimore since 2010 and has thrown more picks than he has touchdowns over the last decade there.

Le'Veon Bell's holdout hasn't worked out well since he's averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry and topped out with 98 total yards last week, finally scoring his first touchdown. He'll catch a break with the Ravens missing DT Brandon Williams and DE Brent Urban, both sidelined by foot injuries. Pittsburgh Tackle Marcus Gilbert (hamstring) and guard Ramon Foster (hand) are each questionable, so the Steelers could again have trouble up front. James Harrison and safeties Mike Mitchell and Sean Davis are all questionable, while pass-rushing DE Stephon Tuitt is likely to make his season debut. Impressive rookie linebacker T.J. Watt is expected to return from a groin injury that forced him out of the mix in Chicago.

The winner here will take the AFC Central lead, so Flacco has to hope home cooking will help breed a resurgence following last week's European disaster. Baltimore has won six consecutive home games but is just 1-7 over its last eight games played outside M&T Bank Stadium.

Buffalo at Atlanta: The Bills stunned the previously perfect Broncos last Sunday and enter this one allowing a league-best 12.3 points per game. They've surrendered an NFL-low 37 points, a number matched only by the Dolphins, who have played one fewer contest. DE Shaq Lawson already has three sacks, but will be a game-time decision due to a groin injury. DT Marcell Dareus (ankle) will play, while DT Jerel Worthy is out of concussion protocol and should also participate, giving the Bills ammo as they try to pressure Matt Ryan into mistakes after he threw three interceptions in Detroit last week, snapping a streak of 309 passes without being picked off.

Julio Jones has 20 touchdowns over the last three seasons, but has yet to find the end zone this season. He's been removed from the injury report after dealing with back pain, so the Falcons are nearly at full strength for the challenge of facing an excellent defense, missing only tackle Ryan Schraeder. Atlanta won't have top pass-rusher Vic Beasley, DE Courtney Upshaw and DB Ricardo Allen, so we'll see if it can stop the run. Teams are averaging 4.8 yards per carry against the Falcons.

N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay: Due to the ramifications for both teams, this is one of Sunday's most intriguing matchups despite neither participant having a winning record. The Giants need to taste victory or risk having to emulate the 1992 Chargers as the only team to reach the postseason after opening 0-4 since the current playoff format came into play.

On a positive note, New York will get back guard Bobby Hart, so their offensive line should be better than it's been in a few weeks, especially if Brett Jones (hip) ends up on the right side of questionable. There are a number of key defensive players looking to do the same, with linebacker B.J. Goodson due back and DE Olivier Vernon and LB Jonathan Casillas hoping to overcome ankle injuries.

The Giants are in much better shape with their personnel than Tampa is since the home team will be missing its top two linebackers Lavone David (ankle) and Kwon Alexander (hamstring). Gerald McCoy, Jacquies Smith and Chris Baker are all healthy enough to play, so they'll have to make life easier for their depleted back seven, which could get back CB Brent Grimes (shoulder), but will be missing safety DJ Ward. RB Doug Martin remains suspended, but will return for Thursday night's game against New England. The Bucs want no part of going into that game at 1-2, putting them in desperation mode as well.

Philadelphia at L.A. Chargers: This is a great opportunity for the Eagles, who catch L.A. struggling with chemistry issues on offense and attendance issues in their new stadium. The new digs aren't agreeing with the Chargers, who have again already been bitten by the injury bug, losing standout corner Jason Verrett for the season. Melvin Gordon (knee) will play, so the offense should be balanced enough to keep the visitors from keying in on disrupting Rivers, a task made more difficult since star DT Fletcher Cox (calf) won't play for the first time in five seasons.

Philly is playing in Los Angeles for the first time since 1990, and it's worth noting that Doug Pederson opted to bring his Eagles over on Saturday, so we'll see how they handle jet lag and the time difference. Carson Wentz has had his ups and downs, but helped set up rookie kicker Jake Elliott's 61-yard field goal and has largely played well. He should get a boost from the run game since the Chargers are ranked next-to-last in giving up yards on the ground, providing an opportunity for LeGarrette Blount and Wendell Smallwood to pick up where they left off last week with more carries after a season-ending injury to Darren Sproles. Safety Rodney McLeod (hamstring) and LB Jordan Hicks (ankle) should be part of the Philly defense, but corners Jaylen Watkins (hamstring) and Ronald Darby (leg) won't play.

San Francisco at Arizona: The 49ers should have the same advantage the Rams have against the Cowboys, having not played since the Week 3 Thursday night game while the host Cardinals were in action late Monday. Since the Niners have lost five of the last six meetings, including four in a row, they could use any help they can get. RB Carlos Hyde will be a game-time decision due to a hip ailment, so any wagers made on this game need to be made once his status is determined.

The Cardinals were victimized by poor offensive line play on Monday night and got the news that key guard Mike Iupati had to go on IR since he needs elbow surgery, making his return this season unlikely. Guard Alex Boone was already out and tackle D.J. Humphries is questionable, so the Niners' young pass rushers could have an impact. J.J. Nelson (hamstring) is hoping to join Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown as Carson Palmer's top targets, while Deone Bucannon is finally ready to return. Chandler Jones is in, while Robert Nkemdiche is out. San Francisco will again be without standout safety Eric Reid and rookie LB Reuben Foster.

Oakland at Denver: Keeping the Chiefs within arm's reach is going to be vital in order to win the AFC West, but the loser here is going to be two games behind if Kansas City is able to hold serve at home against Washington on Monday night. Since all three teams opened the season 2-0 and these two suffered losses last week, whoever drops this game is going to be on a losing streak too, making this my choice for this week's most important contest.

Derek Carr is looking to take a step forward against Denver. He didn't play last year's finale due to injury so he's 2-3 against the Raiders and has thrown six TDs and four interceptions against a defense that is relentless in getting after him and also stops the run well, currently tops in the NFL in yards allowed per game. With Michael Crabtree (chest) likely to play after leaving Sunday night's game, Carr will have his top targets out there even though Amari Cooper (knee) is banged up too.

The Broncos want to get to their bye week on a positive note and have won three straight at home by a 90-44 margin, a streak that started last week against the Carr-less Raiders. Denver enters this game as healthy as any team in pro football.

Indianapolis at Seattle: Despite a 1-2 record, the Seahawks are Week 4's lone double-digit favorite unless public money gets the Pats there against Carolina. This is the first of four regular-season games scheduled for a primetime national television audience, a stage the Seahawks have handled well since they went 5-0-1 SU last season after going just 2-2 in '15. They'll look to ride a defense that comes in close to full strength outside of missing reserve DB Neiko Thorpe, which should spell trouble for Brissett as he makes his first road start in place of Andrew Luck. The ex-Patriot played in the 46-9 Week 1 loss at the Rams, the only time Indy has played in an opposing stadium thus far this season.

Center Ryan Kelly remains sidelined too, but guards Jack Mewhort and Deyshawn Bond will be out there after missing practice time. Although top corner Vontae Davis (groin) is expected to play, depth should be thin with young DBs Quincy Wilson, Chris Milton and Matthias Farley joining rookie LB Anthony Walker, Jr. in being unlikely to participate. Seattle has only beaten Indianapolis once since 1998, going 1-3. They may have to persevere without top receiver Doug Baldwin, who will be a game-time decision.

Monday, Oct. 2

Washington at Kansas City: You have to go all the way back to 1983 for the last time the 'Skins got the better of the Chiefs. All of Kansas City's wins since, six in all, have come by at least seven points. The total margin of 191-69 was bolstered by a 45-10 Kansas City win the last time these teams played back in 2013, a game unique because the visitors scored on a run, two passes, a 74-yard punt return and a 95-yard kickoff return. The game featured Alex Smith and Kirk Cousins, but while Smith was involved in throwing for two scores, the player who currently dons Washington's franchise tag came off the bench for mop-up dut behind Robert Griffin III. Only a handful of players on both sides remain, but Andy Reid did win his 10th game in Year 1 as head Chief in Landover and now looks to beat the Redskins again in order to remain the AFC's lone unbeaten.

Kansas City is perfect against the spread, has won fourth quarters by a 41-10 count and proved disruptive in creating turnovers last week, consistently pressuring San Diego's Rivers into miscues. They've got Tamba Hali on the PUP list and lost safety Eric Berry to an achilles tear in Week 1, so the Chiefs' ability to remain formidable is a testament to defensive coordinator Bob Sutton's aggressive scheme. Kansas City DE Dee Ford missed practices due to a hip issue and would be a big loss if he's absent since the goal at home is to keep Cousins from getting into the comfortable groove he enjoyed against Oakland. Washington is relatively healthy, likely to get tight end Jordan Reed and LB Mason Foster back in the fold.

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SuperContest Picks - Week 4
September 30, 2017

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 2,748, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3
Week 4

1) Denver -2.5 (963)
2) L.A. Chargers -1.5 (774)
3) N.Y. Giants +3 (726)
4) New Orleans -3 (705)
5) Cincinnati -3 (595)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 4 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Chicago (+7) 116 Green Bay (-7) 292
New Orleans (-3) 705 Miami (+3) 244
Carolina (+9) 212 New England (-9) 450
L.A. Rams (+6.5) 546 Dallas (-6.5) 381
Detroit (+2.5) 430 Minnesota (-2.5) 413
Tennessee (-1.5) 481 Houston (+1.5) 555
Jacksonville (-3.5) 532 N.Y. Jets (+3.5) 338
Cincinnati (-3) 595 Cleveland (+3) 220
Pittsburgh (-3) 317 Baltimore (+3) 572
Buffalo (+7.5) 274 Atlanta (-7.5) 498
N.Y. Giants (+3) 726 Tampa Bay (-3) 282
Philadelphia (+1.5) 376 L.A. Chargers (-1.5) 774
San Francisco (+6.5) 422 Arizona (-6.5) 235
Oakland (+2.5) 212 Denver (-2.5) 963
Indianapolis (+13) 316 Seattle (-13) 345
Washington (+6.5) 308 Kansas City (-6.5) 575


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 0-5 0-5 0%
2 3-2 3-7 30%
3 2-3 5-10 33%

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NFL

Sunday, October 1

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Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Colts at Seahawks
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Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)

Indianapolis Colts coach Chuck Pagano has the music revved up on the practice field this week, but it has nothing to do with celebrating the team's first victory. The Colts will be heading into one of the league's toughest environments at raucous CenturyLink Field when they pay a visit to the Seattle Seahawks in prime time on Sunday night.

Pagano has no illusions as to what awaits his team, which is coming off a 31-28 victory over Cleveland behind quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who was acquired from New England at the beginning of the month. "We've got a really young football team, and we will bring a bunch of guys that have never been in an environment like this and play an opponent like this," Pagano acknowledged. The Seahawks have hardly resembled the team that has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons, struggling on both sides of the ball in their 1-2 start. Seattle's offense finally came to life after two pedestrian efforts to open the season but the defense was bulldozed in last week's 33-27 loss at Tennessee.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Colts (4.5) - Seahawks (-2) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -9.5

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened the week as 13.5-point home chalk but quickly dropped to 13 Monday morning and remained there all week. The total hit the betting board at 41.5 and was yet to move off the opening number.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Something’s not right with the Seattle Seahawks these days and it is largely attributed to the condition of a shaky offensive line. As a result Pete Carroll’s crew is just 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS to start the 2017 season. Meanwhile, Indianapolis enters off a win over lowly Cleveland while having been outgained in each of its initial three games. Given Seattle’s 10-2 ATS mark in recent games against AFC South opponents, it would be most surprising should the Seahawks not level their record at 2-2 tonight.” - Marc Lawrence.

WHAT BOOKS SAY:“With a big number and the state the Colts are in, there hasn't been a ton of betting interest for Sunday night just yet. That will change as Sunday wears on, but this won't be nearly the handle we usually see for SNF. Saw some early sharp action on the Colts, but then got some on the Seahawks so we're back to the opener. The low total has seen some over bets from the pros too. Currently, 65 percent of the tickets on Seattle side and 55 percent of the money there as well.” Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu

INJURY REPORT:

Colts - TE Jack Doyle (Probable, Foot), G Deyshawn Bond (Probable, Ankle), WR Kamar Aiken (Probable, Concussion), CB Vontae Davis (Probable, Groin), CB Chris Milton (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Anthony Walker Jr. (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Quincy Wilson (Questionable, Knee), WR Chester Rogers (Out, Hamstring), RB Marlon Mack (Out, Shoulder), QB Andrew Luck (Mid-November, Shoulder).

Seahawks - CB Richard Sherman (Probable, Achilles), TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Ankle), G Luke Joeckel (Probable, Knee), DE Frank Clark (Probable, Hamstring), S Earl Thomas (Probable, Knee), Wr Doug Baldwin (Questionable, Groin), DT Nazair Jones (Questionable, Knee), CB Neiko Thorpe (Questionable, Ankle), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Hamstring), RB C.J. Prosise (Out, Ankle), LB Dewey McDonald (I-R, Knee).

ABOUT THE COLTS (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): With Andrew Luck still not able to practice, Brissett was handed the reins after Scott Tolzein flopped in the first half of a 46-9 drubbing to the Rams in the season opener. He became the first quarterback in franchise history to rush for two touchdowns, pass for another and throw for at least 250 yards as the Colts put up 28 first-half points last week. T.Y. Hilton, who led the league in receiving yards last week, had seven receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown, but will face tougher sledding against Seattle star cornerback Richard Sherman. Indianapolis' defense is allowing 30 points per game and has been gouged for 283.7 yards through the air.touchdown, but will face tougher sledding against Seattle star cornerback Richard Sherman. Indianapolis' defense is allowing 30 points per game and has been gouged for 283.7 yards through the air.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Seattle's defense had long prided itself on not allowing a 100-yard rusher, but it has allowed one in back-to-back weeks and was gashed for 195 yards on the ground by DeMarco Murray and the Titans. The offensive managed a combined 21 points in the first two weeks but finally showed signs of life at quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 373 yards and fourth touchdowns in a belated comeback attempt last week. One potential issue for this week: top wideout Doug Baldwin suffered a groin strain during Sunday's 10-catch, 105-yard game and didn't practice Wednesday. Rookie Chris Carson leads the ground game but third-down back C.J. Prosise is out for Sunday.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

* Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in October.

* Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dogs Colts at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is picking up 55 percent of the totals action.

[StarDust Bum]

Essential Week 4 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has struggled in his two career starts at Denver. He's completed less than 50 percent of his pass attempts and owns an ugly 68.3 QB rating at Mile High.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (+3, 49.5)

There were a lot of things not to like about the Dolphins’ performance against the New York Jets but maybe none more than their decisions on third down. Miami converted just one of its 12 third down attempts against Gang Green which pushed the team down to last in the league in third down conversion rate at 24 percent.

There should be a chance to correct the problem this week as the Saints’ defense still ranks among the worst in the league even after the team’s win over the Panthers last week.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the Fish getting 2.5 points and there’s where most books still have the line. There are a few shops dealing Miami +3. The total is holding steady at 49.5 although there a few places offering 50.

TRENDS

*The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on grass
*The Over is 6-0 in the Saints’ last six games.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 47.5)

What a difference a year makes. The Los Angeles Rams finished dead last in points per game at 14.0 a season ago and are first this year at 35.7. They’ve scored 40 or more points twice this season and they had only two games scoring that many points in the previous 10 years.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened with the Cowboys giving as many as 8.5 points but most shops are now dealing Rams +6.5 and there are even a few 6’s on the board.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
*The Over is 5-0 in the Rams’ last five games.
*The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)

The Jags are in unfamiliar territory entering New York as the betting favorite. It’s the first time the Jaguars have been away chalk since 2011 and it snaps a 44-game stretch of consecutive contests as away pups. The Browns were in a similar spot last week as the faves at Indianapolis and ended up losing outright.

LINE HISTORY: This spread opened at Jets +3.5 and there’s where it still stands at most sportsbooks, however, there are a few locations separating these teams by a field goal. The total is holding at 39.5.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 4-1 in the Jets’ last five games.
*The Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Jets.

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8, 48.5)

The Falcons are the first Super Bowl loser to start the next season 3-0 straight up since the 2006 Seahawks. Seattle went on to go 9-7 SU and 6-9-1 ATS that season. Buffalo is the first of four straight games against AFC East opponents for Atlanta.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers installed the Falcons as 9-point chalk and the action is titling toward the visiting Bills so far. Buffalo is now as low as a 7.5-point dog. The total looks like it’s going to settle at 48.5 after opening at 49.

TRENDS:

*Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
*Buffalo is 7-3 in its last 10 games following an ATS win.
*The Over is 12-0 in Atlanta’s last 12 home games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3, 41)

There was a least some signs of progress on offense for the Bengals last week against the Packers. Cincy scored its first touchdown of the campaign and quarterback Andy Dalton had his highest QB rating in a road game since 2015.

But new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor is still trying to come up with a way to fix the offensive line. The unit allowed three sacks last week, all in third-and-long spots, and has given up 11 QB takedowns this season.

Backup lineman Andre Smith relieved left tackle Cedric Ogbuehi and right tackle Jake Fisher at different points during the Green Bay game. Is that because the Bengals want to keep their tackles fresh or because they don’t really like either of their starters?

LINE HISTORY: A few places opened with the Begnals as 3.5-point road faves but there are only 3s on the board now with varying amounts of juice. The total opened at 40 and has been bet up to 40.5 and 41.

TRENDS:

*The Bengals are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games.
*The Under is 6-0 in the Browns’ last six home games and 6-1 in the Bengals’ last seven games overall.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9, 49)

The Patriots’ defense is an issue. It ranks last in yards allowed per game and finished no worse than 13th in this stat over the last three seasons. The Texans had scored only 20 points in two games before putting up 33 against the Pats last weekend.

Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson passed for over 300 yards and ran for another 41 at New England. If mobile QBs are a problem for Bill Belichick’s defense, it might help Cam Newton break out of his season-long funk.

LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the Pats giving 8.5 points but most shops are dealing either Pats -9 or 9.5. The total opened at 47.5 and now rests around 49.

TRENDS:

*New England is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games overall.
*The Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
*The Over is 7-0 in the Pats’ last seven games overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 41.5)

It’s been three weeks and we’ve yet to see the same Steelers’ offense from the past few seasons. Pittsburgh finished seventh in total offensive yardage last year and third the year prior. After three games this season they sit in the bottom third of the league.

Head coach Mike Tomlin says his team needs more “splash” plays and that probably means he’s talking about his running back. Le’Veon Bell hasn’t been his regular self since ending his contract holdout at the end of the preseason. The Steelers longest running play this season was for just 15 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point chalk and have been bet up to -3 faves. The total has been bet down from 45 to as low as 41.5.

TRENDS:

*The Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC North opponents.
*The Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games against Baltimore.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+1.5, 44)

The Titans have one of the best offensive lines in the league and have allowed a league-low two sacks in 2017. But Texans’ defensive lineman J.J. Watt has feasted on the Titans over his career. The three-time winner of the defensive player of the year award has racked up 15.5 sacks, seven passes defended, six forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in 10 games against Tennessee.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened with Tennessee favored by 1 or 2 points and the line continues to float between the two numbers. The total opened at 43.5 and some shops are at 44 now.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 road games.
*The Texans are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 AFC South games.
*The Titans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Houston.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5)

Chargers beat writer Eric D. Williams layed out a sad stat stuffer about the Chargers’ last 40 games. During that 40-game stretch the Bolts are 11-27 straight up (17-22-1 ATS) and have blown 13 fourth quarter leads.

They’ve turned the ball over 74 times in those 40 games with 47 of those coming by way of a Philip Rivers interceptions.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened at most shops as 1 to 1.5-point favorites and that’s where we sit midweek. The total has been bet up a full point from the opening number of 46.5 to 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Chargers are 0-7-1 in their last eight games overall and 5-18 ATS in their last 23 home games.
*The Over is 12-2 in the Eagles’ last 14 road games.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 44)

The Bucs are in the middle of a three-game stretch against three quarterbacks who have their number. Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times points out Case Keenum, Eli Manning and Tom Brady are a combined 11-0 against the Bucs franchise.

Keenum torched T-Bay last week to the tune of 369 yards and three touchdowns on 25 of 33 passes. Manning is 5-0 against the Bucs and last beat them in 2015 at Tampa Bay 32-18.

LINE HISTORY: The Bucs opened as 4-point chalk but are now down to 3-point faves at most shops. The total opened at 43.5 and shifted half a point to 44.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 9-3 in the Giants’ last 12 games overall.
*The Under is 6-2-1 in the Bucs’ last nine games overall.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 44.5)

Arizona’s front office is not happy with the play of its offensive line following last week’s performance against Dallas. Cards GM Steve Keim said the play of the unit was unacceptable and he even signaled out right tackle Jared Veldheer who got owned by Dallas defensive end Demarcus Lawrence.

Arizona had been starting backups on the left side of its line but two linemen suffered pectoral strains Monday against the Cowboys. The hope is regular starters DJ Humphries and Mike Iupati can return for this weekend but head coach Bruce Arians sounds less than optimistic about those chances.

LINE HISTORY: Vegas opened with the Cards as 7-point home faves and that’s where the line stands going into the weekend. The total is holding at 44.5

TRENDS:

*The Niners are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against NFC West opponents.
*The Under is 11-2 in the Cards’ last 13 home games.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 47)

The Raiders’ loss last week at Washington is a game quarterback Derek Carr hopes to soon forget. The normally elite signal caller was picked off twice in the first half and played a major role in Oakland going 0-for-11 on third downs.

Carr has not played well at Mile High Stadium. He missed last year’s game because of injury but in two games he owns a 68.3 QB rating at Denver.

LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened at Broncos -2.5 and the line has moved up to Broncos -3. The total can be found between 46.5 and 47.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 5-1 in the Raiders’ last six away dates.
*The Over is 4-1 in the Broncos’ last five games overall.
*The favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between this two teams.

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)

The issues with Seattle’s offensive line have been going on for years, and, at this point, pretty well documented. Another reason for the Seahawks 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS start: that vaunted defense isn’t so special anymore.

The Seahawks are allowing 5.3 yards per carry on the ground – a big jump from their league-low mark last season at 3.4. And Seattle pass rush was toothless against Tennessee. Marcus Mariota was pressured on just two of his 37 drop backs last weekend.

LINE HISTORY: Some shops opened with Seattle giving 12.5 points but just about everyone is at Colts +13 now. The total opened at 41 but most shops have moved up to 41.5.

TRENDS:

*The Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
*The Over is 24-9 in the Colts last 33 road games.

[StarDust Bum]

The Muffed Punt: 'Recency Bias' is going to burn you bad when it comes to this NFL Week 4 bet
Joe Fortenbaugh

Let’s try a bit of an experiment, shall we? I’m going to give you one piece of information about the Ravens-Steelers AFC North showdown that takes place this Sunday in Baltimore and based solely on that information, I want you to pick the winner of that game.

Ready?

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Baltimore Ravens.

So who do you like to win Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers and Ravens?

Sure, that’s a bit of a leading question designed to entice you to pick the Ravens based on the lone piece of information we provided. But what I can’t seem to figure out is why Baltimore is catching three points at home despite the fact that Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Ravens.

My best guess is that this pointspread has something to do with “Recency Bias”, which is a term used in the finance world to explain a situation where stock market participants evaluate their portfolio performance based on recent results and make incorrect conclusions that ultimately lead to incorrect decisions about how the stock market behaves.

Applied to this instance, I think bettors are putting too much emphasis on Baltimore’s humiliating 44-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London last Sunday.

Instead of focusing on just how bad Joe Flacco & Co. looked against Blake Bortles last weekend, pay attention to the fact that the Ravens are 13-2 straight up and 11-4 against the spread under head coach John Harbaugh when coming off a double-digit loss.

And then go ahead and grab the Ravens plus the field goal.

With three weeks in the books

Home teams ATS: 25-21-1
Favorites ATS: 19-26-1
Home underdogs: 12-7
Over/Under: 23-24-1

Trend of the Week

The Los Angeles Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games played overall.

Think about that for a second. The last time Philip Rivers and the Bolts covered the spread, it came in Week 12 of last season when the Bolts (-2.5) defeated the Texans in Houston by a final score of 21-13. Since that date (11/27/2016), the Chargers have yet to cover a single pointspread.

Does the streak finally come to an end Sunday afternoon at StubHub Center in Carson, California when the Philadelphia Eagles come to town as 1-point underdogs? Take note that Carson Wentz and the Birds are just 2-7 ATS over their last nine road dates.

Sharps like…

*The following information is courtesy Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook Manager Ed Salmons.

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (in London): Drew Brees and the Saints are 11-5 ATS over their last 16 games overall, while the Dolphins are 4-10 ATS over their last 14 games an ATS loss.

Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas is working on a short week following Monday night’s win in Arizona, but note that the Cowboys are just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Rams quarterback Jared Goff currently ranks first in the NFL in yards per attempt (10.09).

New York Jets (+4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Are you prepared to live in a world that features Blake Bortles as a road favorite?

Denver Broncos (-2.5) vs. Oakland Raiders: The Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS over their last 13 home dates and 16-7 ATS over their last 23 games when coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Raiders are just 2-8-1 ATS over their last 11 showdowns with the Broncos.

The public likes…

“All NFL favorites with popular teams, like the Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers, Falcons and Chiefs are going to attract public money,” said Salmons. “The book will absolutely need an underdog to win straight-up with all of the moneyline parlays and teaser action we are going to see.”

Biggest line move…

“The Dallas Cowboys, which we opened at -7.5 and have since moved to -6.5,” Salmons told ***********.

The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS over their last seven showdowns against teams with a winning record.

Biggest sweat…

“We needed the Bears on Thursday night, that’s for sure,” said Salmons. “As for Sunday, we’ll definitely need an underdog of six or more points to pull an upset and win straight up.”

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Sunday's games
Saints (1-2) vs Dolphins (1-1) (@ London)— Horrible travel schedule for Dolphins, who split a couple road games to open season, now head overseas after scoring 19-6 points (2 TD’s on 21 drives). Miami scored only 15 points in four red zone drives this year. Miami didn’t score LW until last play of game, then they missed PAT. Saints are on road for 3rd time in four weeks; they haven’t turned ball over yet (+3), but did allow 10+ yards per pass attempt in their two losses- they held Panthers to 4.2 in their win LW. Miami is 6-25 on 3rd down; they averaged 6.3/4.1 yds/pass attempt. NFC South teams are 8-15-1 in last 24 games as a favorite away from home.

Panthers (2-1) @ Patriots (2-1)— Carolina has only 3 TD’s on 28 drives this year, averaging 6.8/4.7/4.2 yds/pass attempt in their three games. Newton was sacked 10 times in last couple games; they’ve scored only 32 points in 8 red zone drives. Under Rivera, Panthers are 19-9-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Patriots scored 27-36-36 points so far (12 TD’s on 35 drives); they’re 39-24-3 in last 66 home games, but are 0-2 this year. NE is 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games vs NFC opponents. NE defense allowed 42-20-33 points in first three games, a red flag. Teams split six series games; Patriots are 1-2 here, with only win in 2001, Brady’s first year as starter. Since 2010, over is 38-20 in Patriot home games.

Rams (2-1) @ Cowboys (2-1)—Short week for Dallas after their Monday night win in Arizona; Cowboys are 0-7 SU/ATS after last seven MNF games, with four of those at home- their last post-Monday win was in ’08. Rams played last Thursday; they’ve got edge in rest/prep time. LA scored 107 points in first three games (10 TD’s, 7 FGAs on 30 drives); they’ve averaged 10.0/8.6/10.4 yards/pass attempt, but are stepping up in class here. Cowboys allowed 4.8/5.9/5.2 ypa in first three games; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a home favorite. Dallas won last three series games, by 27-34-3 points; Rams lost last three visits here- their last win in Dallas was in ’05. Last 4+ years. LA is 10-14-1 vs spread as a road underdog; all three of their games this year went over. NFC West teams are just 1-7 vs spread outside the division this season.

Lions (2-1) @ Vikings (2-1)— Minnesota backup QB Keenum put up big numbers (25-33/369) in Vikings’ win over Tampa LW; reality is there isn’t much difference between he and Bradford- as a Ram fan, I can attest to that. Minnesota is 2-0 at home, scoring 29-34 points (7 TD’s on 17 drives). Lions lost tough game at home to Falcons LW, coming up a yard short; Detroit is 11-14 vs spread on road under Caldwell; they won only road game this year, vs Giants on a Monday night. Lions are +6 in turnovers this year; they’re only NFL team this year to lose a games when they were +2 or better in turnovers. Detroit is 8-5 in last 13 series games; they won two of last three visits to Twin Cities. Vikings averaged 10.3/11.2 ypa in their wins, 3.7 in their loss.

Titans (2-1) @ Texans (1-2)—Houston is 8-2 in last ten series games; Titans lost last five visits here, by 24-6-24-14-7 points. Rookie QB Watson put up 33 points in Foxboro LW, averaging 8.3 ypa, converting 8-14 on 3rd down, but Texans have scored only 23 points on six red zone drives, which isn’t good. Houston lost field position in all three games so far, by 17-7-5 points. Tennessee scored 37-33 points in winning their last two games (7 TD’s on 24 drives); they won 37-16 in only road game, at Jacksonville. Houston is 2-4 as a home underdog under O’Brien; since ’09, they’re 4-10 as home dogs. Last 2+ years, Tennessee is 3-9 vs spread coming off a win, 1-0 this year. Over is 12-6 in Titans’ last 18 road games.

Jaguars (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)— Coughlin returns to Swamp Stadium as GM of Jaguars, who won 44-7 in England LW but didn’t take the usual bye after going overseas- this is first time they’ve done that. Field position has been a key in Jaguar games; winningn team has had 14+-yard edge in FP in all three of their games. Jags ran ball for 155-166 yards in their wins, 99 in their loss- they’re only 12-37 on 3rd down- they ask Bortles to manage the game and not make mistakes. Gang Green allowed 190-180 yards in first two games, then held Miami to 30 in LW’s upset win. Under Bowles, New York is 10-7 vs spread at home. Jets won last three series games, by ’09. 29-7-5 points; Jags’ last win was here in 2009.

Bengals (0-3) @ Browns (1-2)— Winless Bengals are road favorite vs Cleveland team they’ve beaten five times in row, winning last two visits to Lake Erie, by 37-3/23-10 scores. Cincy lost last two games by total of 7 points; they scored TD’s on both red zone drives LW, after going 0-6 (3 FG’s) on six RZ drives in first two games. Since 2013, Bengals are 6-8 as road favorites. Under is 17-8 in their last 25 road games. Cleveland was -6 in turnovers the last two weeks, both on road; rookie QB’s usually struggle on road. Browns have 17 plays of 20+ yards, which is encouraging, they’re 3-10-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year- they lost 21-18 to Steelers in only home game so far.

Steelers (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)— Ravens were a complete no-show against the Jaguars over the pond, now come home to face the rival Steelers, who lost in OT in Chicago LW. Baltimore won four of last five series games; Steelers lost last four visits to Charm City, by 2-20-3-7 points. Ravens were +7 in TO’s in their two wins, -3 in Jaguar loss; they’re just 7-22 on 3rd down in last two games. Baltimore is 7-3 vs spread in its last 10 home games; under is 16-9 in their last 25 home tilts. Steelers ran ball for only 207 yards in their first 3 games (69 ypg); they’re 12-37 on 3rd down- Chicago ran ball for 220 yards against them LW. Under is 19-7 in Pitt’s last 26 road games. Baltimore has only four plays of 20+ yards, 2nd-least in league- only Bucs have fewer and they’ve played one less game.

Bills (2-1) @ Falcons (3-0)—Atlanta hung on at goal line to win at Detroit LW, move to 3-0; they scored 8 TD’s on 28 drives, putting up 34-30 points in two games on carpet, where their speed is a bigger edge than on grass. Falcons are just 4-10 vs spread as a home favorite under Quinn, 1-0 this year- their last nine home games went over. Buffalo allowed only 12.3 pts/game in their 2-1 start, giving up 2 TD’s on 31 drives. Opponents averaged 4.4/4.7/5.9 ypa vs Bills this year; how will Ryan’s pass attack do here? Atlanta won last four series games by average score of 31-20; Bills are 1-4 in Atlanta, with only win in their first visit, in 1973. McDermott was Carolina’s defensive coordinator the last 6 years; Panthers were 5-7 vs Atlanta during that time. Falcons hung 48-33 points on his defense LY.

Giants (0-3) @ Buccaneers (1-1)— Giants are 0-3, scoring 4 TD’s on 30 drives, 30 points on 8 red zone drives- they did have three TD’s in 4th quarter at Philly LW, we’ll see if that carries over to this week- they’ve run ball 47 times for 145 yards in 3 games. No bueno. Tampa Bay has 4 TD’s on 19 drives, but 3 of the 4 drives were 46 or less yards, set up by defense/special teams. Case Keenum riddled Bucs’ defense for 11.7 ypa LW, not a good sign. Big Blue is 4-4-2 vs spread on road under McAdoo (under 8-2). Bucs are 3-8 in last 11 games as a home favorite; under is 5-3-1 in their home games under Koetter. Giants won last five series games, four by 10+ points; they won last three visits here. Bucs’ last series win was in 2003.

Eagles (2-1) @ Chargers (0-3)— Philly survived giving up 24 4th quarter points LW in 27-24 win over Giants; they allowed 7.3/7.8 ypa to Smith/Manning last two weeks, face another quality QB here in Rivers, who tossed three INT’s in 24-10 home loss to KC LW. Eagles are 2-5 as a road underdog under Pederson- losing RB Sproles LW hurts offense. Chargers are playing n their new home for 3rd week in row; they’re 10-33 on 3rd down, allowed 146.7 rushing ypg, but lost first two games because their rookie kicker missed FG’s in last minute. Bolts are 7-4 in series, 5-1 at home; Eagles’ only series win in San Diego was their first meeting, in 1974. Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 Philly road games. AFC West teams are 5-3 vs spread outside the division.

49ers (0-3) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Arizona on short week after Monday night loss to Dallas; 49ers played on Thursday, so edge in rest/prep time. Cardinals won last four series games, winning 47-7/23-20 in last two meetings played here. 49ers lost last two games by total of 5 points, losing 12-9 at Seattle in only road game- they had five TD’s last game, after not having any in first two games. Niners are 7-12 vs spread in last 19 games as a road underdog. Over is 12-5 in their last 17 road games. Arizona is 6-10 as home favorite last 2+ years; under is 15-9-1 in their last 25 home games- they’re 5-10 vs spread in last 15 NFC West home tilts. In last two games, Cardinals have scored only 16 points on seven red zone drives.

Raiders (2-1) @ Broncos (2-1)— Broncos are 9-2 in last 11 series games; Raiders lost four of last five visits here, losing by 31-16-33-18 points- they won in Denver two years ago. Oakland was really bad LW in Washington, outgained 472-128; they scored 71 points in first two games. Raiders are 11-7 as a road underdog under Del Rio; they’re 12-7 vs spread coming off a loss- this is their 3rd road game in four weeks. Under is 9-8-1 in their last 18 road games. Broncos scored 66 points in winning first two home game, then lost 26-16 LW in Buffalo; Denver is 23-44 on 3rd down this year. Last 2+ years, Broncos are 4-7-1 as a home favorite; they’re 13-7-1 vs spread in games following their last 21 losses.

Colts (1-2) @ Seahawks (1-2)—Seattle’s offense is struggling, scoring one TD in first two games before scoring 27 in 6-point loss at Tennessee LW. Scoring 36 points on nine red zone drives isn’t ideal. Spread is lower than you’d think; overreaction to Colts’ win over Cleveland LW? Brissett is making his 4th NFL start; this is his first road start, in hostile environment where Seahawks are 26-16 vs spread as a home favorite under Carroll. Last three years, Seattle is 8-3 vs spread when laying double digits. Colts are 16-35 on 3rd down last two games; their last two games were both decided by a FG. Indy is 7-4 vs Seahawks; this is their first visit to Seattle since 2005. AFC South teams are 4-2 vs spread out of its division; NFC West teams are 1-7, 1-3 when favored.

Monday's game
Redskins (2-1) @ Chiefs (3-0)— Washington outgained Raiders 472-128 last Sunday night; they are 8-6 in last 14 games as road underdog, 10-7 in game following its last 17 wins; over is 13-4 in Redskins’ last 17 road games. Chiefs are off to 3-0 start, they’re 14-17 as a home favorite under Reid; they’ve run ball for 162 yards/game so far, unusual for a Reid team. Thee of their last five TD drives were less than 45 yards. KC is +5 in turnovers their last two games. Skins allowed only 60.7 rushing yards/game so far this season. KC won last six series games; their last loss to Redskins was in 1983. Washington is 0-4 in Arrowhead, losing by 7-19-21-7 points. AFC West teams are 5-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC East teams are 3-3.

2017 week-by-week results
HF HU Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 5-5 3-2 4-11 1-0N
2) 6-6 2-2 6-9-1 3-2A
3) 1-4 8-2 10-5 3-0N

T) 12-15 13-6 20-25-1 6-3N

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday of NFL Week 4 seeing plenty of sharp action and line movement
Patrick Everson

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos – Open: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2; Move: -2.5; Move: -3

These AFC West rivals got out to strong starts the first two weeks of the season, then had lackluster road performances in Week 3 losses. Oakland (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Washington and lost 27-10 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Sunday night game, and is now on the road for the third time in four weeks.

Denver (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Buffalo and looked nothing like the team that disassembled Dallas in Week 2. The Broncos scored only three second-half points – on a field goal midway through the third quarter – in a 26-16 loss as a 3.5-point chalk.

“It looks like all Denver money across the board,” Bernanke said of the line jumping from -1 to -3 before stabilizing the last couple of days. “Even the moneyline moved, -125 to -150 on Denver. I think this is due to the fact that Oakland’s disaster on Sunday night was in full view of everybody, an isolated game. Denver’s loss was hidden on Sunday amongst all the games. People notice something on national TV a heck of a lot more than they noticed something mixed in the Sunday slate.”

Bernanke said both sharps and the public were initially on Denver as both groups drove the line up for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. And the moneyline on Denver inched up to -160 by Saturday night at CG books, including at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip.

“This could be one of our biggest decisions of the weekend,” he said.

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -7.5; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -6

Dallas enters this 1 p.m. ET contest off a short week after playing the Monday nighter on the road. The Cowboys (2-1 SU and ATS) bounced back from that aforementioned loss at Denver to beat Arizona 28-17 laying 3 points in Week 3.

Los Angeles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) held on in a shootout at San Francisco in the Week 3 Thursday night game. The Rams got outscored 19-7 in the fourth quarter, blowing almost all of a 14-point lead but holding on for a 41-39 victory giving 3 points.

“We opened this game Dallas -7.5 on Tuesday, and later Tuesday evening, we got a sharp bet on the Rams +7.5, so we moved Dallas to -7,” Jerome said. Market moves then led TopBet to go to 6.5, then 6. “It’s a very surprising decision to us, as 63 percent of the cash and 60 percent of bets are taking the Rams.”

CG opened the Cowboys -8 and saw that number bet down to 6.5.

“Sharp and public money both on the Rams (early),” Bernanke said. “I think this is people playing an angle. The Rams had nine days to prepare, Dallas had the short week (playing) Monday night. That’s an angle people play all the time, so it’s reflected in the betting.”

That said, don’t be surprised to see the public push Dallas back up this morning.

“The buyback on America’s team, it’s almost inevitable,” Bernanke said.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -4.5; Move: -4; Move: -3.5; Move: -3

New York is now officially desperate for a victory, with the calendar turning to October and Ben McAdoo’s squad still seeking its first W. The Giants (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) at least got close last week, losing 27-24 as a 5-point underdog at Philadelphia, which got a 61-yard Jake Elliott field goal as time expired.

Tampa Bay (1-1 SU and ATS) lost at Minnesota 34-17 in a pick ‘em game in Week 3. Bettors eyeing this 4:05 p.m. ET matchup seemed to find the Bucs’ loss more problematic than New York’s setback.

“Less than 2 hours after we opened the game on Sunday night, we got a sharp bet on the Giants +4.5 and moved Tampa Bay to -3.5 (-105),” Jerome said, noting TopBet went to 3 by Monday afternoon. “Since then, we have made small adjustments on the juice. Seventy-three percent of cash and 77 percent of bets are taking the Giants.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5; Move: -3

In a Week 3 full of underdogs covering and several winning outright, Pittsburgh was arguably the biggest upset victim. The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) went to Chicago as 7-point favorites and left with a 23-17 overtime loss.

Baltimore was sent across the pond to London last week, though it looked like the team didn’t actually make its flight. The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) got boatraced by Jacksonville 44-7 as a 3-point fave.

“I think it’s gonna be a great game,” Bernanke said, noting meetings in this rivalry are often decided by one score. “This has been all public and sharp money (early) on the Steelers, the reason being Baltimore I think got a little bit of a hosejob, playing last week in London and not getting a bye. Bettors are noticing that, and this could be a flat spot for Baltimore.”

This contest kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers – Open: Pick; Move: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -2

Los Angeles is still looking for its first win of the season, hoping perhaps a third straight game in its new digs will prove helpful. The Chargers (0-3 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) did not score in the second half last week, tumbling to Kansas City 24-10 as a 3-point home ‘dog.

Philadelphia easily got the most miraculous win of Week 3. Jake Elliott hit a 61-yard field goal as time expired, lifting the Eagles (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) to a 27-24 home victory over the New York Giants as a 5-point chalk.

“We’re seeing a lot of money on this game. All sharp money on the Chargers, and over the counter, public money is kind of even,” Bernanke said. “The Chargers, this is their third straight home game, so bettors are buying into the fact they can’t lose three straight home games. And the Eagles are off a very emotional win against the Giants, division rivals, so a letdown spot possible.”

TopBet.eu opened the Chargers a 1-point home ‘dog and saw that line quickly jump the fence for this 4:05 p.m. ET start.

“On Sunday night, we got a wiseguy bet on Chargers +1, so we moved them to -1,” Jerome said, adding that when running back Melvin Gordon (knee) was upgraded to probable Thursday, the line jumped to Chargers -2, then went to 2.5 on Friday.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Record For Sept......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

09/28/2017.............0-2-0..............0.00%............-11.00

09/25/2017.............2-0-0............100.00%..........+10.00

09/24/2017...........16-6-0..............72.73%..........+47.00

09/21/2017.............0-2-0................0.00%...........-11.00

09/17/2017.............5-7-0..............41.67%............-13.50

09/14/2017.............0-2-0...............0.00%............-11.00

09/11/2017.............2-1-1..............66.67%...........+4.50

09/10/2017.............14-10-0...........58.33%..........+15.00

09/07/2017.............2-0-0..............100.00%.........+10.00


Totals...................41 - 30 - 1...........57.74%...........+ 40.00


Best Bets:

Date...........................ATS......TOTAL..... ..... ......O/U.......TOTAL..........TOTALS

09/28/2017.................0 - 1.....- 5.50..............0 - 1 .......- 5.50.............-11.00

09/25/2017.................1 - 0.....+5.00..............1 - 0........+5.00.............+10.00

09/24/2017.................5 - 1.....+19.50............3 - 1.........+9.50............+29.00

09/21/2017.................0 - 1.....-5.50...............0 - 1.........-5.50............. -.11.00

09/17/2017.................1 - 2......-6.00..............3 - 3........-1.50...............- 7.50

09/14/2017.................0 - 1......-5.50..............0 - 1........-5.50..............- 11.00


Best Bets Total.............7 - 6......+2.00............7 - 7.........- 3.50................- 1.50


Dog Of The Month........1 - 0

Total Of the Day...........1 - 0

POD...........................0 - 0



SUNDAY, OCTOBER 1

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BUF at ATL

BUF +8.0 ******

U 48.0

DET at MIN 01:00 PM

DET +2.5

O 43.0

LAR at DAL

DAL -4.5 ***** POD

CIN at CLE 01:00 PM

CLE +3.0

PIT at BAL

BAL +3.5 *****

JAC at NYJ 01:00 PM

NYJ +4.0 ***** POD # 2

TEN at HOU

O 43.0 *****

CAR at NE

NE -9.0

U 48.0 *****