The Bum's 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

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Title Tips - Group of Five
November 28, 2017

Playing for a championship is the goal of every program and nine conference champions will be decided this weekend, eight coming on Saturday.

College Playoff berths are not on the line in the Conference USA, AAC, MAC, and Mountain West games but all four contests will feature regular season rematches to fill out the championship Saturday schedule.

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchup: North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls
Venue: At FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida
Time/TV: Saturday, December 2, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2
Line: Florida Atlantic -11, Over/Under 73½
Last Meeting: October 21, 2017 at Florida Atlantic (-3½) 69-31

Lane Kiffin is only 42 but he has already been the former head coach of the Oakland Raiders, Tennessee, and USC. After rebuilding his tarnished reputation as an assistant at Alabama for three seasons he surprised many by taking over at Florida Atlantic. It has proven to be a wise move for the trajectory of his career with a great season in Boca Raton and likely some options available to him if he chooses to pursue another position higher up the college football ladder.

The Owls went 3-9 last season and started this season 1-3 while also dealing with the complications of Hurricane Irma in September. Florida Atlantic wound up as one of three teams in the nation to go undefeated in conference play. Florida Atlantic averaged 39.8 points per game with the sixth most productive rushing attack in the nation. North Texas was just 1-11 in 2015 before Seth Littrell took over the program. The Mean Green managed to get a bowl invite at 5-7 last year, losing to Army in the Heart of Dallas Bowl but delivering a season of improvement. This year’s team is now 9-3 with the only loss after a 1-2 start coming in Boca Raton.

North Texas is without Jeffery Wilson who led the team in rushing as they look for their first conference title since winning four Sun Belt titles in a row from 2001-2004. Nic Smith has been very productive as his replacement and Mason Fine had the top quarterback rating in Conference USA, just ahead of FAU’s Jason Driskel while attempting nearly twice as many passes.

2017 Meeting: The Owls had a record setting day hosting North Texas is October with 69 points and 804 total yards. It was 24-0 not even 14 minutes into the game and 41-7 at halftime. North Texas did wind up with 31 points and 420 yards as well but three turnovers on the first five possessions put the Mean Green in a substantial hole.

Series History: Florida Atlantic won the first six meetings between these teams from 2004 to 2009, going 5-1 ATS in the run as well. North Texas won all four meeting from 2010 to 2014, going 3-1 ATS. October’s blowout win for Florida Atlantic in Boca Raton was the first meeting since November of 2014.

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchup: Memphis Tigers at Central Florida Knights
Venue: At Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: Saturday, December 2, 12:00 PM ET, ABC
Line: Central Florida -7½, Over/Under 82
Last Meeting: September 30, 2017 at Central Florida (-5½) 40-13

The top two quarterbacks in the AAC face off in the third ever AAC Championship and the first appearance in the game for either program. UCF last played for a championship losing the 2012 Conference USA title game to Tulsa while Memphis and UCF were co-champions of the AAC with Cincinnati in the 2014 season before the league had divisions.

Sophomore McKenzie Milton followed Scott Frost to UCF and after emerging as the starter as a freshman last season he was the AAC’s top rated passer (2nd nationally) this season with 30 touchdowns against six interceptions, completing 69 percent of his passes on 10.3 yards per attempt. Milton has also rushed for 429 yards leading a Knights offense that scored 47.6 points per game to pace the nation. Riley Ferguson delivered a fine senior season for Memphis with 32 touchdown throws and 3,500 passing yards. At 6’4” Ferguson could be a mid-round NFL draft pick in April. As the total suggests both offenses are capable of huge numbers with Memphis scoring 44.3 points per game.

The head coaches will be bigger storylines than the quarterbacks however as it is assumed the Scott Frost will be departing Orlando for a power five job. His Alma Mater Nebraska certainly is interested but there could be other schools in play as well, including possibly Florida State should that position open up. Memphis head coach Mike Norvell is 18-6 in two seasons at Memphis and also will likely have the opportunity to interview for a few openings as well. He played at Central Arkansas as the opening in Fayetteville seems like a possibility but he also was an assistant at Arizona State before taking over at Memphis.

2017 Meeting: Originally scheduled for the second week of the season this game was shuffled along with several other AAC games following Hurricane Irma, played in late September when UCF has originally scheduled FCS Maine and Memphis had originally scheduled a game at Georgia State. UCF had only played two games but they had outscored Florida International and Maryland 99-27 with the win at Maryland turning some heads as the Terrapins were 2-0 with a win over Texas. UCF has clear edges statistically and led 23-7 before eventually leading 40-7 with the Tigers adding a late touchdown. UCF had a 603-396 yardage edge with a 4-1 turnover edge. The rushing edge was most prominent with a 350-75 advantage for the Knights.

Series History: Central Florida has won S/U 10 meetings in a row in this series going back to 2005 with the last win for Memphis coming in 1990 when UCF was not playing at the top college football level. Memphis has covered in three of the last five meetings going back to 2010 with this September’s 40-13 win for the Knights the first meeting since 2013. The highest scoring meeting between these teams didn’t quite reach this year’s total with a 56-20 result in favor of UCF in 2007.

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchup: Akron Zips at Toledo Rockets
Venue: At Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Time/TV: Saturday, December 2, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Toledo -21½, Over/Under 57½
Last Meeting: October 21, 2017 at Toledo (-15) 48-21

Toledo has been one of the better teams in the MAC for much of the last decade but the Rockets haven’t been to the MAC Championship since winning the 2004 title. The Rockets are 10-2 with only one MAC loss and a loss to highly rated Miami, FL in the non-conference schedule. Senior quarterback Logan Woodside has 24 touchdown passes with just three interceptions to finish fourth nationally in quarterback rating.

Playing as the biggest favorite of championship weekend, run defense might be the biggest weakness for Toledo, allowing 170.8 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry. Akron isn’t a great threat to exploit that weakness as the Zips were out-rushed in all 11 FBS games this season but the Zips have some momentum with a late season upset of Ohio to move up in the MAC East standings, clinching this spot with a win over rival Kent State last week.

Terry Bowden is in his sixth season at Akron with now five straight seasons of finishing at least 5-7 after the program went 1-11 in three consecutive seasons including Bowden’s first with the program in 2012. Akron was 5-3 last season before losing the final four games to miss a bowl bid as this has been a redemptive campaign. Akron senior quarterback Thomas Woodson hasn’t played the past three games after being suspended for a violation of team rules. Freshman Kato Nelson has played well since taking over and while Bowden has said that Woodson is available he hasn’t made it clear what the plan will be as they look for an upset.

2017 Meeting: Toledo led 21-0 after the first quarter and coasted to a 48-21 win with a 626-333 yardage edge. The Rockets only lined up for 3rd down nine times and converted six times to move the ball with ease throughout the game. Toledo had 11 penalties for 104 yards compared to none for Akron as that could be an area of emphasis for second year head coach Jason Candle who is now 19-6 in two seasons and could get some calls from athletic directors around the country in the coming weeks.

Series History: Toledo has won nine of 12 meetings S/U since 1992 though going just 2-3 ATS since 2008. This season and last season the result was nearly identical with a 48-17 win at Akron last season and a 48-21 home victory for the Rockets in October. Akron’s last win in the series came in 2013 at home wining 31-29 (+11) and this is set to be the highest spread ever in the series.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERNCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Matchup: Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
Venue: At Albertson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Time/TV: Saturday, December 2, 7:45 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Boise State -9, Over/Under 49
Last Meeting: November 25, 2017 at Fresno State (+6½) 28-17

Boise State won eight WAC titles from 2002 to 2010 but the program has won the Mountain West championship just twice and just once since the championship game format started. That title came by virtue of beating Fresno State in 2014 in Boise 28-14, though falling well short of an over three-touchdown spread. The Broncos have won 10 or more games in 14 of the last 18 seasons and they will hit that mark with a win this weekend (or with a bowl win).

The Broncos have several notable upsets vs. power five schools in recent years but they missed in both opportunities in September. This year’s team drew one of the tougher schedules in the conference having to play San Diego State and Colorado State on the road with those teams generally considered the preseason division favorites. Quarterback Brett Rypien didn’t match the numbers he posted last season and wound up splitting a lot of time with Montell Cozart as the Broncos had some inconsistency on offense but were one of the top defensive teams in the conference.

Jeff Tedford had success in 11 seasons at California before he was let go after the 2012 season. He coached in the NFL in 2014 and the CFL in 2015 before returning to college football as an assistant at Washington last season. This season has led one of the great turnarounds in college football with the Bulldogs going from 1-11 to 9-3 and playing for a conference championship at his Alma Mater. Always known as a quarterback developer he has turned Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion to one of the top players in the conference. The Fresno State defense is also 12th nationally in scoring defense allowing just 17.3 points per game for a dramatic improvement from last season.

2017 Meeting: These teams played last week in Fresno knowing that they would play again in this championship game this week. Fresno State prevailed 28-17 to pull away after Boise State closed to within two points in the fourth quarter. There were no turnovers and the yardage was nearly even with third down success the biggest difference in the box score.

Series History: Boise State is 13-4 S/U in this series since 1996 with a 12-4 ATS record however Fresno State has covered in the past three meetings. Prior to last week’s 28-17 win for Fresno State at home these teams last met in the MWC Championship in 2014 with Boise State winning 28-14 but falling short of a -23 spread at home. None of the S/U wins for Fresno State in this series have come in Boise.

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CFB notebook: Clemson, Auburn 1-2 in CFP rankings
November 28, 2017

Losses by the top two teams over the weekend caused a shakeup in this week's College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday, and the conference championship games to be played this weekend may shake things up again.

On Friday, then-No. 2 Miami lost to Pittsburgh, and the next day No. 1 Alabama was beaten by Auburn.

As a result, Clemson (11-1) was moved to the top spot this week by the CFP panel, while Auburn (10-2), despite its two losses, rose four spots to No. 2 after recent wins over Georgia and Alabama, both of whom where No. 1 at the time. Oklahoma (11-1) advanced one spot to No. 3, and Wisconsin, one of the two unbeaten FBS teams, moved one critical spot to the No. 4 slot.

Looming just behind, at No. 5, is Alabama (11-1), which might sneak into the top four even though it is not in the Southeastern Conference championship game. At No. 6 is Georgia (11-1), which probably could win its way into the playoff with a victory over Auburn in the SEC championship game.

Miami is No. 7 in this week's rankings, but the Hurricanes would move up if they beat Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game in Charlotte, N.C.

The top four teams in the final rankings, which will be announced Sunday, participate in the national championship playoff.

--ESPN analyst Herm Edwards is interested in getting back into coaching and confirmed he will interview for the Arizona State vacancy.

Edwards hasn't coached since being fired by the Kansas City Chiefs following the 2008 season.

Former NFL executive Ray Anderson is Arizona State's athletic director and said he would consider NFL coaches in his search. The school fired Todd Graham on Sunday.

--Tennessee has turned its attention to Mike Gundy in a bid to fill its head coaching vacancy, according to multiple outlets.

Knoxville (Tenn.) radio station WNML reported about the Volunteers' interest in Gundy, who has coached at Oklahoma State for the last 13 years. Gundy met with Tennessee athletic director John Currie on Tuesday.

The talk swirling around Gundy comes two days after the Volunteers backed out of the hiring agreement involving leading candidate Greg Schiano following a public backlash and campus protests.

--Former Syracuse star running back Walter Reyes died Sunday night after experiencing stomach pain. He was 36.

Reyes reportedly complained of stomach pain for a couple days. He was transported to a hospital Sunday and died shortly after arrival. A coroner's report to determine cause of death is slated to be released in eight to 10 weeks.

Reyes played at Syracuse from 2001-04 and is the second-leading rusher in school history with 3,424 career yards.

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Herm Edwards to interview for ASU job
November 28, 2017

ESPN analyst Herm Edwards is interested in getting back into coaching and confirmed he will interview for the Arizona State vacancy.

Edwards hasn't coached since being fired by the Kansas City Chiefs following the 2008 season.

Former NFL executive Ray Anderson is Arizona State's athletic director and said he would consider NFL coaches in his search. The school fired Todd Graham on Sunday.

Edwards last coached at the college level when he was defensive backs coach at San Jose State from 1987-89. He was a longtime NFL assistant and also served as head coach of the New York from 2001-05.

Edwards spent 10 seasons (1977-86) in the NFL as a cornerback, the first nine with the Philadelphia Eagles. He split time with the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams in his final season.

Edwards had a 54-74 record in eight seasons as an NFL head coach.

Recently fired Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin also has been mentioned as a possible candidate to replace Graham in Arizona.

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PSU's Moorhead to be next Miss St. coach
November 28, 2017

Mississippi State will hire Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead as its next head coach, according to a person with direct knowledge of the decision.

The person spoke to The Associated Press on Tuesday on condition of anonymity because a deal was still being finalized.

Moorhead replaces Dan Mullen, who left Mississippi State after nine years to become Florida's coach. Moorhead has been with Penn State the last two seasons, calling plays for one of the best offenses in the country.

Before coming to Penn State, Moorhead was head coach at FCS Fordham University in New York. He went 38-13 at his alma mater with three playoff appearances in four years. The Rams have made only two other playoff appearances since moving up to Division I in 1989.

The 44-year-old from Pittsburgh also has been offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Connecticut and Akron.

Penn State coach James Franklin hired Moorhead after the 2015 season to bring his creative spread offense to State College, and it has helped the Nittany Lions take off. Penn State is 21-5 the last two seasons with Moorhead directing the offense. In 2015, the Nittany Lions were 21st in the nation and second in the Big Ten in yards per play at 6.50. This season, they are 17th nationally and second in the Big Ten at 6.55 yards per play.

At Mississippi State, Moorhead will have one of the best quarterbacks in the Southeastern Conference in Nick Fitzgerald, though he will be recovering from a serious ankle injury suffered in the season finale against Mississippi. When healthy, Fitzgerald is a dual-threat who would seem to be a perfect fit for Moorhead's offense.

The Bulldogs finished the regular season 8-4 and have much of this season's team returning in 2018.

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UF's Mullen fires Shannon, hires pair
November 28, 2017

GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) Florida coach Dan Mullen's first official day on the job included numerous staff changes.

Mullen dismissed defensive coordinator Randy Shannon and five other assistants Tuesday, a person familiar with the situation told The Associated Press.

The person spoke to the AP on the condition of anonymity because the Gators have not publicly announced the personnel moves. The person said Mullen parted ways with Shannon, offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier, defensive backs coach Corey Bell, receivers coach Kerry Dixon, tight ends coach Greg Nord and defensive assistant Robb Akey.

Shannon had two years remaining on his contract that paid him $890,000 annually.

So the Gators will end up with four head coaches on the payroll in the future: Shannon, who was the former interim coach, as well as Mullen, Jim McElwain and Will Muschamp.

Florida has one payment remaining to Muschamp: $787,500 in 2018.

Full details of Mullen's contract and McElwain's separation agreement were released Tuesday.

McElwain will get a $7.5 million buyout spread across six payments between this week and 2021. He will receive the first installment, a $3.75 million ''transition payment,'' Friday. HIs original buyout would have been a little more than $12.5 million, an amount the team and coach negotiated after he failed to produce evidence of alleged death threats in late October.

Both McElwain and Florida also agreed not to disparage each other verbally or in writing.

Mullen signed a six-year, $36.618 million contract Monday to replace McElwain. Mullen can earn up to $925,000 more in bonuses and has a $5 million pool to pay assistants, up about $500,000 from McElwain's final year.

The new coach announced Tuesday the hiring of two of his long-time assistants, Billy Gonzales and John Hevesy.

Gonzales and Hevesy each spent at least 10 years working with Mullen, including several years in Gainesville.

Gonzales just finished his fifth season on Mullen's staff at Mississippi State and was in charge of receivers. He also served as the team's co-offensive coordinator overseeing the passing game for four seasons. He also worked with Mullen at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida, and spent time at LSU.

Coming off his ninth season at Mississippi State, Hevesy spent the past three seasons as the Bulldogs' co-offensive coordinator. He also oversaw the offensive line since 2009.

Offensive line coach Brad Davis, defensive line coach Chris Rumph, running backs coach Ja'Juan Seider and linebackers coach Tim Skipper remain on Florida's staff, at least for now. They are expected to be on the road recruiting this week.

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Big 12 title game back after 6-year hiatus
November 28, 2017

FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) When Texas beat Nebraska in the championship game at the end of the Big 12's first-ever season in 1996, the only other conference playing such a title game was the SEC.

The Cornhuskers were also in the last Big 12 title game, in their final season as a league member when they lost to Oklahoma in 2010.

Now after a six-season hiatus, and a change in NCAA rules to allow it, the revived Big 12 championship game returns Saturday when the No. 2 Sooners (11-1, 8-1 Big 12, No. 3 CFP) play No. 10 TCU (9-2, 7-2, No. 11 CFP) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

In the first three years of the four-team College Football Playoff, the only Big 12 team to make it was Oklahoma in 2015. Of the 12 teams to make the playoff since the CFP's inception in 2014, 10 got there after winning their respective conference championship games.

The ACC started its conference championship game in 2005. The Big Ten and Pac-12 added title games in 2011, the first year the Big 12 was the only Power Five Conference without one.

It was after Big 12 co-champions TCU and Baylor were both 11-1 and left out of the first four-team playoff in 2014 that league leaders considered resuming the championship game. The NCAA in 2016 passed legislation co-sponsored by the Big 12 to allow conferences with less than 12 members to stage a championship game.

TCU had been No. 3 in the CFP rankings before a 55-3 win over Iowa State in its regular season finale in 2014, the same day Ohio State took advantage of a 13th game and beat Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten championship game. When the final CFP rankings came out the next day, the Horned Frogs had dropped to sixth behind the Buckeyes and Baylor.

Now that so-called ''13th data point'' would almost certainly take the Big 12 out of playoff contention this season if Oklahoma doesn't beat TCU for the second time in four weeks.

Even TCU coach Gary Patterson acknowledged when asked Tuesday that ''probably the best (result) for the Big 12 is Oklahoma to win.''

But the Frogs certainly relish the opportunity for another chance against Oklahoma, which won 38-20 when they played in Norman on Nov. 11.

''I was the one that went from third to sixth, so for me to feel sorry for somebody else ... you're talking to the wrong person,'' Patterson said.

Oklahoma is making its record ninth appearance in the Big 12 title game, having gone 7-1 in its previous eight appearances from 2000-10. Texas (3-2 in its five appearances) and Nebraska (2-4) are the only other teams who have won multiple Big 12 championship games.

The last two Big 12 title games were also played in the home stadium of the NFL's Dallas Cowboys in 2009 and 2010. Texas Stadium, the previous home of the Cowboys, hosted the game in 2001.

Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City hosted the Big 12 game a record five times (2000, 2003, 2004, 2006 and 2008), and the Alamodome in San Antonio did three times. St. Louis was the championship site twice, including the inaugural 1996 game, and the game was also played twice at the home stadium of the NFL's Houston Texans.

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USC enjoys rest before Pac-12 title game
November 28, 2017

LOS ANGELES (AP) While the Pac-12 North was being decided in Seattle, Pac-12 South champion Southern California was enjoying an overdue day off.

Tight end Tyler Petite went to the Bay Area to see his girlfriend. Tight end Daniel Imatorbhebhe watched rivalry games play out across the country.

Quarterback Sam Darnold was flipping back and forth between Notre Dame-Stanford and the Apple Cup, where Washington's 41-14 win over Washington State gave the 14th-ranked Cardinal the division title and a spot in the Pac-12 championship game Friday night against the rested 11th-ranked Trojans.

USC will be the first team from a Power 5 conference to play in a conference championship game after a bye week since Oklahoma and Auburn in 2004.

It wasn't intentional. The Pac-12 has to accommodate USC and Stanford's rivalry games against the Fighting Irish and a nine-game conference schedule. But it could have created a problem if the Cougars had won the Pac-12 North since Washington State would have lost a day of preparation traveling to Santa Clara, California, and exacerbated the disparity.

The Cardinal only have a short bus ride to Levi's Stadium to worry about, and Stanford head coach David Shaw has no issues facing a recharged USC team.

''If anybody in the country deserved it, it's them. I mean, going 12 straight weeks without a bye, especially in this conference playing nine conference games and Notre Dame, it's brutal,'' Shaw said.

USC spent much of the season hindered by injuries, but its break came when the team is largely healthy.

Outside linebacker Porter Gustin (toe) will not play in the Pac-12 title game, USC head coach Clay Helton said, but the rest of the roster is good to go. Gustin missed eight of USC's last 10 games after he was injured against Stanford on Sept. 9 and has a ''better opportunity'' to play in a bowl game, Helton said.

For Petite, the bye week gave him more time to recover from a shoulder injury. Imatorbhebhe was happy to set aside the mental grind of the game for a few days.

''Just got to rest,'' Imatorbhebhe said. ''It was awesome. My mind needed it as well as my body, so it was cool.''

But the time in front of the television reminded USC how difficult it will be to beat Stanford twice in the same season. Three turnovers in the fourth quarter allowed Stanford to pull away from the Fighting Irish for a 38-20 win. Darnold stopped watching early in the second half to get dinner and was initially surprised by the late separation.

''My dad texted me the final score and I was just like, `Whoa.' So I went back and watched the highlights and they were just really physical. We're preparing really hard for that type of game and it's going to be really fun,'' Darnold said.

Darnold's two interceptions were the only significant mistakes on offense in a 42-24 win over Stanford as USC ran for 307 yards and threw for 316 yards.

Petite believes the passing offense is better than it was in the second week of the season because of the development of receivers Tyler Vaughns and Michael Pittman Jr. Neither the redshirt freshman Vaughns nor the sophomore Pittman caught a pass against Stanford, but are now reliable options.

''With the receivers kind of coming into their own, Tyler really stepping up and Pitt really stepping into his role, too, and just gaining Sam's trust, I think that was the biggest thing,'' Petite said.

They should free up Deontay Burnett, who had nine receptions for 121 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting at the Coliseum. However, Stanford is allowing an average of 195.25 yards passing over its last eight games, intercepting 12 passes while giving up seven touchdown passes.

Stanford had won three straight in the series, including a 41-22 triumph in the 2015 Pac-12 title game, prior to this season. Bye or no bye, USC has not forgotten those losses.

''We would have been excited to play Wazzu or Washington, too, but we do have an extensive history against these guys. They beat us three times in a row and that score's not really settled, so I know we are really fired up to go and compete against them again,'' Imatorbhebhe said.

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Tech Trends - Week 14
November 29, 2017

FRIDAY, DECEBMBER 1
Matchup Skinny Edge

STANFORD vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Pac 12 title Friday, December 1 at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA)...SC a bit streaky vs. line TY and only 4-8 vs. spread in 2017. Trojans just 5-11 last 16 vs. line away from Coliseum (but 5-4 last nine). Tree had won 7 of last 9 SU and covered 10 of last 14 in series prior to loss on September 9. Cardinal 10-3-1 as dog for David Shaw since 2011.
Stanford, based on team and extended series trends.


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 2

Matchup Skinny Edge

IDAHO at GEORGIA STATE...Note Vandals have covered 8 straight and 14 of last 15 as Belt visitor!
Idaho, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at APPALACHIAN STATE...ULL 6-2 vs. spread last eight on Sun Belt road, though hasn’t been closer than 19 points the last three years in series.
Slight to ULL, based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at COASTAL CAROLINA...Since Summers dismissal, GSU is 3-1-1 vs. line after posting 4-14 mark prior since beginning of last season. Coastal no covers last four at home in debut Belt year.
Georgia Southern, based on recent trends.

TROY at ARKANSAS STATE...Troy not great vs. line this season but has been pretty good on road (3-1-1 vs. line), now 9-3-1 last 13 vs. line away from home. Though Trojans have lost four in a row SU vs. Ark State dating back to 2011. Neal Brown 7-2-1 as dog since 2015 season.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA at NEW MEXICO STATE...Jags 5-12 vs. points last 17 as road dog and that does not count the 52-0 loss at Ga Southern on Nov. 18! USA just 10-21 last 31 on board. Still a chance NMSU gets bowl-eligible and Ags on 10-6-1 spread uptick since mid 2016. Ags also 4-2 last six as chalk.
NMSU, based on team trends.

UMASS at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL....UMass has covered four of last five in 2017 including four straight on road. FIU 0-3 as chalk this season, no covers last four in role since 2016.
UMass, based on team trends.

ULM at FLORIDA STATE...Noles just 2-9 vs. spread this season (though covers last two).
Slight to ULM, based on recent trends.

NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Conference USA title game)...Rematch of FAUs’s 69-31 win back on October 21. That was one of six covers last eight this season for the Owls. UNT also hot down stretch with four covers in a row to end the season and is 8-3 as dog away from home under Littrell since last season.
FAU, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS at UCF (American title game)...Rematch of 40-13 UCF win and cover back on Sept. 30. Memphis hot down stretch with five straight covers but Mike Norvell just 3-4 as dog since last season. UCF only 1-4 vs. line last five in 2017 but was 14-5 vs. spread (if counting Cincy as cover TY) prior for Scott Frost since 2016.
UCF, based on team trends.

AKRON vs. TOLEDO (MAC title game at Ford Field, Detroit)...Rematch of Oct. 21 game win big by Toledo, 48-21. Rockets won by almost identical 48-17 score last season. Toledo was hot vs. line down stretch, winning and covering six of last seven after 3-10-1 spread skid prior. Terry Bowden 4-4 as dog this season, just 7-8 in role since 2016.
Toledo, based on recent and series trends.

AUBURN vs. GEORGIA (SEC title game at Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta)...Rematch of Auburn’s 40-17 win on Nov. 11. Georgia, however, had won and covered previous three in series. Bulldogs on 9-4 spread uptick since late 2016, and 7-1 vs. spread last eight away from Athens.
Georgia, based on team and extended series trends.

FRESNO STATE at BOISE STATE (Mountain West title game)...Rematch of Fresno’s 28-17 win at Bulldog Stadium last Sunday. Bulldogs were 8-2-2 vs. spread this season for Jeff Tedford, and FSU on 13-4-2 spread run since mid 2016. Boise 2-12-1 vs. spread last 15 as blue carpet chalk (though did cover last two).
Fresno State, based on team and recent trends.

MIAMI-FLA. vs. CLEMSON (ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte)...Miami was only 5-6 vs. line this season for Mark Richt, and just 2-2 vs. points away from Hard Rock Stadium. Clemson has covered last three this season, and is 8-1 vs. line in conference title/bowl games since 2012 (only non-cover was in LY’s ACC title game).
Clemson, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE vs. WISCONSIN (Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)...Wiscy has lost last five SU vs. Buckeyes since win in 2010. Included was 59-0 blowout loss in this game in 2014. Though Badgers covered LY’s OT loss at Madison. Badgers on 20-7-1 spread run for Paul Chryst since late in 2015 season, if dog note Wiscy 8-1 in role since 2014 (6-1 for Chryst). Badgers 13-2 vs. points last 15 away from Madison (if counting Cotton Bowl as W LY). Urban Meyer just 5-10 vs. points last 15 on board since mid 2016.
Wisconsin, based on team trends.

TCU vs. OKLAHOMA (Big 12 title game at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Rematch of OU’s 38-20 win and cover at Norman on Nov. 11. Prior to this season, the five meetings since TCU joined Big 12 were all decided by 7 or fewer points. Patterson 10-5 last 15 as dog, and Sooners only covered one of last five away from Norman this season.
Slight to TCU, based on extended series and team trends

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Betting action very heavy as NCAAF Championship Week pointspreads hit the board
Patrick Everson

“The Badgers are undefeated. Buckeyes signal caller J.T. Barrett is banged up. Wisconsin covered the number in four straight. No wonder 67 percent of early bettors are on the Badgers and the points.”

Conference championship week has arrived in college football, which could lead to easy decisions or utter chaos for the committee deciding on the four-team College Football Playoff. All we’re concerned with is the betting angle on these games. So with that, here’s a look at the opening lines and early action on the Power Five conference finals, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers (-2.5)

Auburn had a fantastic finish to the regular season, charting two impressive home wins, over an unbeaten Georgia squad in Week 11, then another unbeaten in Alabama in Week 13. The Tigers (10-2 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) bested ‘Bama 26-14 Saturday as a 6-point home underdog, two weeks after upending Georgia 40-17 catching 2.5 points at home.

The upset of the Tide gives Auburn a rematch against Georgia, with the winner of the SEC title game assuredly in the CFP. The Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) bounced back from the loss to the Tigers with blowout wins the last two weeks. Georgia rolled Kentucky 42-13 as a 23.5-point home chalk, then dumped host Georgia Tech 38-7 laying 11.5 points on Saturday.

“No surprise that the SEC championship is taking on more bets than any other game on the betting board,” Mason said. “As a matter of fact, there are twice as many bets on this game than the second-most-bet-game – the ACC championship. After knocking off No. 1 Alabama last week and then-No. 1 Georgia with ease a few weeks ago, 68 percent of early bettors are on Auburn minus the points.”

That helped move the line to Auburn -3.

Miami Hurricanes vs. Clemson Tigers (-7.5)

Miami had a great chance to enter the ACC final undefeated, but stubbed its toe badly in Week 13. The Hurricanes (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) went to Pittsburgh as a 12-point fave and barely even scored a dozen points, losing 24-14.

Clemson won five in a row SU following its shocking loss at Syracuse, and cashed in its last three games. On Saturday, the Tigers (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) coasted past South Carolina 34-10 giving 12.5 points on the road.

“With Miami losing its first game of the year, in addition to Clemson covering each of its last three games, it’s not surprising that 82 percent of early bettors are on the defending champs,” Mason said. “Tons of early action, as this is the second-most-bet game so far.”

That helped jack up this line from the opener of Clemson -7.5 to -9 by Sunday night.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers (+6.5)

Wisconsin got through the regular season unscathed and now hopes to lock up a CFP bid in the Big Ten final. The Badgers (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) dispatched Minnesota 31-0 as a hefty 18.5-point favorite Saturday.

Ohio State is hoping to win this week and sneak into the CFP despite having two losses, including a 55-14 shellacking at Iowa, where Urban Meyer’s troops were 21-point faves on Nov. 4. The Buckeyes (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) outlasted archrival Michigan 31-20 on Saturday, but fell short of cashing as 12.5-point chalk.

“The Badgers are undefeated. Buckeyes signal caller J.T. Barrett is banged up. Wisconsin covered the number in four straight. OSU is 1-4 ATS in its last five,” Mason said. “No wonder 67 percent of early bettors are on the Badgers and the points.”

Based on that action, the line ticked down to Ohio State -6.

Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-6)

After a shocking home loss to Iowa State, Oklahoma won seven in a row to reach the Big 12 title game, with the last five victories all by 18 points or more. The Sooners (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) went off as 23-point favorites Saturday at West Virginia and won 59-31.

Texas Christian also lost to Iowa State, though on the road, and TCU’s second loss came at Oklahoma on Nov. 11, 38-20 as a 6-point pup. The Horned Frogs (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) bounced back with two easy wins, including Saturday at home against Baylor, 45-22 as a heavy 24.5-point chalk.

“Considering that the Sooners have covered in four out of their last five, including the win over TCU a few weeks back, it’s not surprising that the majority of early bettors are on Oklahoma,” Mason said, noting the line moved to Sooners -6.5. “This is by far the most-lopsided-bet game so far, as the bet count is about 20/1 in favor of Oklahoma.”

Stanford Cardinal vs. Southern California Trojans (-3.5)

Even with a win this week in the Pac-12 title game, Southern Cal has virtually no chance of reaching the CFP. The Trojans (10-2 SU) have been among the worst spread-covering outfits in the nation, which they demonstrated again in their Nov. 18 regular-season finale, a 28-23 win over UCLA as a 14.5-point home favorite.

Stanford has absolutely no shot at the CFP, but did finish the regular season with style. The Cardinal, who won a tiebreaker with Washington to reach the Pac-12 final, dumped Notre Dame 38-20 getting 3 points at home Saturday night.

“After opening USC -3.5, early bettors took the points with Stanford, and the line moved very quickly to the Trojans as field-goal favorites,” Mason said. “Since the line movement, more bets are on USC, with only 30 percent of the bettors taking Stanford. This lopsided bet count is a little surprising, since the public didn’t back USC too much during the second half of the season. Perhaps the Trojans’ 42-24 thrashing of the Cardinal back in September is still on the minds of the masses. Of the Power Five conference championship games, this one is getting the fewest bets by far.”

[StarDust Bum]

College football's biggest betting mismatches: Championship week edition
Monty Andrews

TCU's Kenny Hill was one of the most accurate passers in the nation in 2017, completing two-thirds of his attempts while throwing multiple interceptions just once all season.

Pac-12 Championship

Stanford Cardinal vs. USC Trojans (-3, 57.5)

Cardinal's ball-hawking prowess vs. Trojans' turnover troubles

Things looked bleak early in the season for Stanford, but wins in eight of their final nine games have the Cardinal facing the USC Trojans for Pac-12 supremacy this Friday night. Stanford running back Bryce Love might be on the outside looking in for the Heisman Trophy, but it was still a sensational season for the 5-10 dynamo, who racked up nearly 1,900 yards on the ground. But the focus here isn't on Love: rather, it's on the significant advantage Stanford has in the turnover department.

Stanford has one of the most dangerous secondaries in the nation, finishing the regular season tied for 10th among FBS teams in interceptions (16). Combine that with eight fumble recoveries in 12 games, and the Cardinal finished tied for 11th in total turnovers gained with 24. Stanford won the turnover battle by a 3-0 margin in last weekend's 38-20 victory over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and forced two turnovers in their earlier meeting with the Trojans, a 42-24 setback in their second game of the season.

USC dominated that initial matchup despite losing the turnover battle, but will need to be better in that department if it hopes for a similar result this Friday. The Trojans finished outside the top 100 nationally in total turnovers allowed with 22 - 10 fumbles lost and 12 interceptions. USC turned the ball over a combined five times in its two regular-season losses to Washington and Notre Dame - and if it can't do a better job against the Cardinal, it could have one more loss on its 2017 ledger.

Big 12 Championship

Oklahoma Sooners vs. TCU Horned Frogs (+7, 62.5)

Sooners' so-so pass defense vs. cool Kenny Hill

TCU will have revenge on its mind Saturday afternoon as the Horned Frogs square off against the Oklahoma Sooners for the Big 12 Championship. The Sooners racked up 38 first-half points en route to a 38-20 triumph over the Horned Frogs back on Nov. 11, part of a seven-game winning streak that has Oklahoma in the mix for the national title. But to get there, the Sooners will need to be better in the pass defense department - and they should get a stiff test this weekend from TCU quarterback Kenny Hill.

Oklahoma doesn't have many weaknesses, but its QB pressure and overall secondary performance represent areas that could use some improvement. The Sooners finished in the lower half among FBS teams in sacks per game at 1.92, and intercepted just seven passes all season; only 21 teams had fewer INTs. Oklahoma didn't let those deficiencies prevent them from emerging as the team to beat in the Big 12, but it could be a different story this weekend.

Only five teams threw fewer interceptions than the Horned Frogs this season, who had just five INTs in 12 games. Hill was one of the most accurate passers in the nation in 2017, completing two-thirds of his attempts while throwing multiple interceptions just once all season. Oklahoma limited him to 13-of-28 passing in one of his rare off games, but he still racked up 270 yards and a touchdown in that encounter - and if he's given time to operate this weekend, TCU will make a game of it.

SEC Championship

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Auburn Tigers (-2.5, 49)

Georgia's red-zone rampage vs. Auburn's downfield defensive problems

One of the weekend's marquee matchups pits SEC East champion Georgia against SEC West champ Auburn. The Tigers injected themselves into the national title picture with last weekend's 24-16 triumph over the formerly top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, and will lock up a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinal with a victory over the Bulldogs. But it won't be an easy encounter this weekend, with Georgia boasting the top red-zone scoring offense in the nation.

The Bulldogs are known for boasting one of the country's top defenses - ranking fifth among FBS in scoring defense (13.8 points per game), but they were as tenacious as any team in Division I when they reached the opponent's 20-yard line, scoring 33 touchdowns and adding 11 field goals in 45 total trips - good for an absurd 97.8-percent success rate. Twenty-three of those TDs came courtesy the run - no surprise, considering that RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel combined for 26 rushing scores this season.

Auburn didn't allow many red-zone chances this season - teams reached the Tigers' 20-yard line just 26 times all season. But the Tigers were below-average when it came to allowing points on those red-zone opportunities, permitting opponents to score 84.6 percent of the time. Like Georgia, Auburn is one of the top defensive teams in Division I - but if the Bulldogs get inside the Tigers' 20, it could spell major problems for them in what is expected to be a tightly-contested affair.

ACC Championship

Clemson Tigers vs. Miami Hurricanes (+9.5, 47.5)

Clemson's third-down dominance vs. Miami's drive-extension woes

Clemson is in the enviable position of holding down the nation's No. 1 seed heading into the final game before the College Football Playoff participants are chosen. That makes the goal for this weekend simple: Win the ACC championship game against the Coastal Division-champion Miami Hurricanes, and you're in. And to that end, Clemson will look to take advantage of a sizeable edge when it comes to the Hurricanes facing third down situations.

Clemson forced more than its share of punts during the regular season, ranking sixth in the country in third-down conversion rate against at 28.6 percent. Prior to South Carolina's 6-of-15 performance on third down last week, the Tigers held its previous four opponents - Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Florida State and the Citadel - to a combined 13-for-58 on third-down chances. It's no wonder that the Tigers racked up 27 punt returns on the season, ranking in the top 10 nationally.

Miami overcame a difficult start to the season - at least from a weather perspective - to reel off 10 consecutive victories before dropping a 24-14 stunner to host Pittsburgh last weekend. And you could make the case that the Hurricanes' third-down struggles finally caught up with them; they went just 4-of-15 in that situation against the Panthers, and rank 121st out of 129 FBS teams in overall third-down conversion rate (30.7 percent). More struggles this weekend could mean disaster for Miami.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Friday, December 1

If this report updates, I'll edit this reply to show it.

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STANFORD (9 - 3) vs. USC (10 - 2) - 12/1/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 66-44 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
STANFORD is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
USC is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
STANFORD is 3-1 against the spread versus USC over the last 3 seasons
STANFORD is 3-1 straight up against USC over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 2

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IDAHO (3 - 8) at GEORGIA ST (6 - 4) - 12/2/2017, 2:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
IDAHO is 1-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
IDAHO is 1-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA LAFAYETTE (5 - 6) at APPALACHIAN ST (7 - 4) - 12/2/2017, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAFAYETTE is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
APPALACHIAN ST is 1-1 against the spread versus LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
APPALACHIAN ST is 2-0 straight up against LA LAFAYETTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GA SOUTHERN (2 - 9) at COASTAL CAROLINA (2 - 9) - 12/2/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TROY (9 - 2) at ARKANSAS ST (7 - 3) - 12/2/2017, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARKANSAS ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
ARKANSAS ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
TROY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 against the spread versus TROY over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-0 straight up against TROY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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S ALABAMA (4 - 7) at NEW MEXICO ST (5 - 6) - 12/2/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S ALABAMA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
S ALABAMA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
S ALABAMA is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
S ALABAMA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 18-33 ATS (-18.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEW MEXICO ST is 43-71 ATS (-35.1 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
S ALABAMA is 1-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NORTH TEXAS (9 - 3) at FLA ATLANTIC (9 - 3) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
FLA ATLANTIC is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
FLA ATLANTIC is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 against the spread versus NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 straight up against NORTH TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (10 - 1) at UCF (11 - 0) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 76-104 ATS (-38.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
UCF is 1-0 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
UCF is 1-0 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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AKRON (7 - 5) vs. TOLEDO (10 - 2) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 83-56 ATS (+21.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 2-0 against the spread versus AKRON over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 2-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA (11 - 1) vs. AUBURN (10 - 2) - 12/2/2017, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 65-42 ATS (+18.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GEORGIA is 2-1 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
GEORGIA is 2-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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FRESNO ST (9 - 3) at BOISE ST (9 - 3) - 12/2/2017, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 139-101 ATS (+27.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 139-101 ATS (+27.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 97-71 ATS (+18.9 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
BOISE ST is 85-60 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 88-58 ATS (+24.2 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
FRESNO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
FRESNO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
FRESNO ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
FRESNO ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
FRESNO ST is 1-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
FRESNO ST is 1-0 straight up against BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (10 - 1) vs. CLEMSON (11 - 1) - 12/2/2017, 7:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEMSON is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
CLEMSON is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OHIO ST (10 - 2) vs. WISCONSIN (12 - 0) - 12/2/2017, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
WISCONSIN is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
OHIO ST is 182-140 ATS (+28.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 182-140 ATS (+28.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 119-90 ATS (+20.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 165-126 ATS (+26.4 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
OHIO ST is 68-43 ATS (+20.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
OHIO ST is 1-0 straight up against WISCONSIN over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MASSACHUSETTS (4 - 7) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (7 - 4) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MASSACHUSETTS is 2-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
MASSACHUSETTS is 2-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA MONROE (4 - 7) at FLORIDA ST (5 - 6) - 12/2/2017, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TCU (10 - 2) vs. OKLAHOMA (11 - 1) - 12/2/2017, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OKLAHOMA is 2-1 against the spread versus TCU over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA is 3-0 straight up against TCU over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Conference Championship Week

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Trend Report
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Friday, December 1

STANFORD @ SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
Stanford is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Stanford's last 8 games
Southern California is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Southern California's last 6 games


Saturday, December 2

MASSACHUSETTS @ FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Massachusetts is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Massachusetts is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida International is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 5 games

LOUISIANA-MONROE @ FLORIDA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Louisiana-Monroe's last 20 games
Florida State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

NORTH TEXAS @ FLORIDA ATLANTIC
North Texas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
North Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Florida Atlantic is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

AKRON @ TOLEDO
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Akron's last 10 games
Akron is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Toledo is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Toledo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

MEMPHIS @ CENTRAL FLORIDA
Memphis is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis
Central Florida is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis

TEXAS CHRISTIAN @ OKLAHOMA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas Christian's last 8 games
Texas Christian is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oklahoma is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Texas Christian

GEORGIA SOUTHERN @ COASTAL CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia Southern's last 5 games on the road
Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Coastal Carolina's last 6 games
Coastal Carolina is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

IDAHO @ GEORGIA STATE
Idaho is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Idaho's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia State's last 5 games at home

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE @ APPALACHIAN STATE
Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Appalachian State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Appalachian State is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games

GEORGIA @ AUBURN
Georgia is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Georgia is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Auburn
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Auburn's last 9 games

SOUTH ALABAMA @ NEW MEXICO STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of South Alabama's last 8 games
South Alabama is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Mexico State's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Mexico State's last 7 games

TROY @ ARKANSAS STATE
Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Troy is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arkansas State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arkansas State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Troy

FRESNO STATE @ BOISE STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fresno State's last 5 games
Fresno State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Fresno State
Boise State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

MIAMI-FL @ CLEMSON
Miami-FL is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami-FL's last 9 games
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami-FL

WISCONSIN @ OHIO STATE
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Wisconsin
Ohio State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

[StarDust Bum]

College football conference championship game rematches: What's new and what's not
Ashton Grewal

Georgia gets a second crack at Auburn in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday afternoon three weeks to the day after it was thumped 40-17 at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Will the Dawgs bark back?

Conference championship week in college football this year is, to borrow a Yogi Berra line, like déjà vu all over again. Seven of the conference championship games this weekend are rematches of conference games from earlier this season.

Ashton Grewal examines the replays in the power conference title games to try and find out what’s changed for the teams involved since the last meeting, what’s the same, and what bettors should expect in the rematch.

SEC championship game

Teams: Auburn Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Odds: Auburn -2.5, over/under 49
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia (Neutral field)

Last game when and where: Week 11 at Auburn
Last game odds: Georgia -2.5, over/under 48
Last game result: Auburn 40 – Georgia 17

Story of the first game: Auburn held Georgia to a season-low 46 rushing yards on 32 carries while it gained 246 yards on the ground itself against one of the best run defenses in the country.

What’s different this time: A neutral field should help Georgia, as should the health of Auburn star running back Kerryon Johnson who hurt his shoulder in the Iron Bowl last weekend. Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmon says Johnson is worth about a half point to the spread. Vegas sees Auburn as the better team this time around.

What’s the same: The playoff stakes for the Tigers. Auburn had to win out in the regular season to have any shot at securing a place in the college football playoff and it will have to beat Georgia a second time to make it inside the top four rankings.

Georgia’s ATS dominance. The Bulldogs went right back to creaming the opposition after their setback against Auburn. UGA went 2-0 ATS after the game against Auburn and finished the season with an 8-4 mark against the spread.

Big 12 Championship Game

Teams: Texas Christian Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Odds: Oklahoma -7, over/under: 63.5
Location: AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas (Neutral field)

Last game when and where: Week 11 at Oklahoma
Last game odds: Oklahoma -6, 63.5
Last game result: Oklahoma 38 – TCU 20

Story of first game: The Sooners found the end zone in five of their first seven possessions and took a 38-14 lead into halftime. TCU played better in the second half but never got back in the game. Oklahoma ran for 200 yards on the ground against the third best rush defense in the country.

What’s different this time: The game will be played on a neutral field but it’s safe to assume Oklahoma’s fan base will travel better than TCU’s.

OU’s stock has gone up in the betting market while TCU’s has dropped since their first matchup. The books opened with the Sooners giving seven points in the Week 11 showdown and bettors backed the Frogs which brought the spread down to OU -6 by kickoff. This time, oddsmakers installed OU as 6.5-point chalk on a neutral field and the market is bringing the number up to a touchdown spread.

What’s the same: The Sooners’ dominance against Big 12 opposition. Lincoln Riley’s team averaged a 14.3- point differential per game in conference play. TCU’s offense is decent but not in the same league as Oklahoma.

Pac-12 Championship Game

Teams: Southern California Trojans vs. Stanford Cardinal
Odds: USC -4, over/under: 58.5
Location: Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, California (Neutral field)

Last game when and where: Week 2 at USC
Last game odds: USC -3.5, 54.5
Last game result: USC 42 – Stanford 24

Story of the first game: The Trojans converted 10 of their 12 third downs and racked up 307 rushing yards, 28 first downs and 623 total offensive yards. USC’s nine possessions ended in touchdowns (six), interceptions (two) or victory formation kneels (one).

What’s different this time: Stanford made a switch at QB when it elected to bench Keller Chryst for redshirt freshman K.J. Costello in Week 10. The Cardinal’s passing game has been more accurate with Costello under center and he’s coming off a four-TD-toss performance against the Fighting Irish.

The health of Stanford running back Bryce Love is the real question mark in this rematch. He was completely healthy in Week 2 but he’s been struggling with a sore ankle for the past few weeks.

What’s the same: It was a weird year in the Pac-12 and the winner of this game probably has no shot of making the college football playoff. But USC was the preseason favorite to win the conference and Stanford was the third choice behind USC and Washington.

Trojans quarterback Sam Darnold was picked off twice in the first game against Stanford and USC's turnover problems continued throughout the season. The Trojans averaged 1.8 giveaways per game which puts them in the bottom rung of teams in the country.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Conference Championship Week

If this report updates, I'll edit this reply to show it.

Friday, December 1

Stanford @ USC

Game 303-304
December 1, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
97.609
USC
107.080
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
USC
by 9 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
USC
by 3 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
USC
(-3 1/2); Over


Saturday, December 2

Idaho @ Georgia State

Game 305-306
December 2, 2017 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Idaho
63.523
Georgia State
70.865
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia State
by 7 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia State
by 5
46
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia State
(-5); Under

LA-Lafayette @ Appalachian St

Game 307-308
December 2, 2017 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
68.046
Appalachian St
79.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 11 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 15
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(+15); Over

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina

Game 309-310
December 2, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia Southern
65.641
Coastal Carolina
71.176
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Coastal Carolina
by 5 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia Southern
by 3
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Coastal Carolina
(+3); Under

Troy @ Arkansas St

Game 311-312
December 2, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Troy
83.135
Arkansas St
85.697
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arkansas St
by 2 1/2
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arkansas St
Pick
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arkansas St
Over

South Alabama @ New Mexico St

Game 313-314
December 2, 2017 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Alabama
60.552
New Mexico St
76.153
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Mexico St
by 15 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Mexico St
by 9 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(-9 1/2); Under

North Texas @ Florida Atlantic

Game 315-316
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
North Texas
79.001
Florida Atlantic
92.421
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 13 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida Atlantic
by 10
74 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(-10); Under

Memphis @ Central Florida

Game 317-318
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
94.986
Central Florida
105.575
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 10 1/2
83
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 7
81
Dunkel Pick:
Central Florida
(-7); Over

Akron @ Toledo

Game 319-320
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Akron
73.871
Toledo
90.486
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toledo
by 16 1/2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toledo
by 21 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
Akron
(+21 1/2); Over

Georgia @ Auburn

Game 321-322
December 2, 2017 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia
110.590
Auburn
110.477
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia
Even
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 2 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia
(+2 1/2); Over

Fresno State @ Boise State

Game 323-324
December 2, 2017 @ 7:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
88.835
Boise State
94.409
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 5 1/2
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 9 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Fresno State
(+9 1/2); Over

Miami-FL @ Clemson

Game 325-326
December 2, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami-FL
103.351
Clemson
110.378
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 7
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 9 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Miami-FL
(+9 1/2); Over

Ohio State @ Wisconsin

Game 327-328
December 2, 2017 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ohio State
119.978
Wisconsin
105.630
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 14 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 6
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-6); Under

Massachusetts @ FIU

Game 329-330
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Massachusetts
77.290
FIU
79.616
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
FIU
by 2 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
FIU
Pick
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
FIU
Over

LA-Monroe @ Florida State

Game 331-332
December 2, 2017 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Monroe
74.509
Florida State
93.316
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida State
by 19
85
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 27
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Monroe
(+27); Over

TCU @ Oklahoma

Game 333-334
December 2, 2017 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
TCU
106.560
Oklahoma
111.591
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 5
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 7
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
TCU
(+7); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championship Week

Weekend’s 13 best games
Pac-12 title game, Santa Clara, CA
USC didn’t have bye week all season, but had last week off, so they should be well-rested here. Stanford played rival Cal/Notre Dame last two weeks; they won last three games- three of their last five games were decided by 3 or less points. USC ran ball for 307 yards in 42-24 home win over Stanford Sept 9, just their 3rd win in last ten games with the Cardinal. Stanford beat USC 41-22 in Pac-12 title game two years ago, which was Trojans’ only appearance in this game. Pac-12 North teams are 6-0 vs Pac-12 South teams in this event, with Stanford 3-0, winning by 3-24-19 points. Stanford is 1-2 vs spread as an underdog this year; USC is 4-7 as a favorite.

Idaho was +6 in turnovers, hammered Georgia State 37-12 at home LY, in teams’ first meeting. This is Vandals’ last I-A football game; they drop down to I-AA next year. Idaho lost its last three games, scoring total of 17 points in last two- they’re 4-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 9-47-3-7 points, with win at So Alabama. Georgia State won three of its last four games, with wins by 8-4-3 points. Panthers are 1-1-1 vs spread as a favorite this year. Under is 7-1 in last eight Idaho games, 4-1 in State’s last five games.

UL-Lafayette lost three of last five games; they allowed 50-34-34 points in last three. Cajuns are 1-5 when they allow 220+ rushing yards- they’re 2-3-1 as road underdogs this year. Appalachian State won its last two games 27-6/31-10, running ball for 579 yards; ASU won all three of its games vs ULL, winning by 24-21-19 points (2-1 vs spread). Mountaineers are 2-1 as home favorites this season. Last three ULL games went over the total; under is 5-3-1 in last nine ASU games. Sun Belt home favorites are 9-15 vs spread this season.

Georgia Southern won its last two games after an 0-9 start, scoring 86 points; they covered four of last five games. Eagles are favored over a I-A team for first time this season- they’re 0-5 on road this year, with 27-6 loss the closest of the five games. Coastal Carolina is 2-9 in its first year of I-A football, beating Idaho LW after a 9-game losing streak. Chanticleers scored 17 or less points in three of their last four games- they’re 1-3 at home this year, beating UMass in opener. Four of last six Coastal games went over total; over is 7-2 in last nine GSU games.

Arkansas State won its last four games with Troy, scoring 35+ points in all four games. Troy lost its opener at Boise State, then won nine of last 10 games, losing as an 18-point favorite to South Alabama. Trojans won their last four road games, including a SU win at LSU. Arkansas State won six of its last seven games, with only loss to USA; Red Wolves are 3-0 at home, thanks to a home game with Miami being cancelled by the hurricane in September. Three of last four Troy games went over total; four of last five ASU games stayed under.

C-USA title game. Boca Raton
Florida Atlantic ran ball for 447 yards, passed for 357 more in 69-31 thrashing of North Texas Oct 21, in game that was 41-7 at half- that was FAU’s first win in last five tries vs North Texas, but tams’ previous meeting was in 2014. FAU won its last eight games, seven by 18+ points; they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight games. North Texas is 5-0 wince the loss at FAU; they’re 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this season. Over is 5-2 in last seven FAU games, 6-3 in Mean Green’s last nine. FAU ran ball for 318+ yards in five of last seven games.

AAC title game, Orlando
Central Florida ran ball for 350 yards, gained 603 yards and pounded Memphis 40-13 Sept 30; Knights are 10-0 vs Memphis, 2-3 vs spread in last five. Memphis is 7-0 since the UCF loss, 6-1 vs spread- they scored 41+ points in last five games. UCF won wild 49-42 game with USF last week, when Bulls tied game in last 2:00, but UCF ran ensuing kickoff back for GW score. UCF covered only once in its last five games- they’re 3-0 vs spread this year when spread was single digits. Six of last eight UCF games, four of last five Memphis games went over total.

MAC title game, Ford Field, Detroit
Toledo ran ball for 303 yards, pounded Akron 48-21 at home Oct 21. Rockets covered six of last seven games overall- they won six of last eight games with Zips, beating them 48-17 LY. Toledo is 7-3 vs spread as a favorite this season. Akron won three of last four games since the Toledo loss; Zips are 3-3 vs spread as a double digit underdog this season. Akron was held to 17 or less points in four of its five losses. Under is 9-2 in Akron games this season, 3-1 in last four Toledo games. This is first MAC title game since ’05 for Zips, ’04 for Toledo.

SEC title game, Atlanta
Auburn beat Georgia 40-17 Nov 11, outgaining Dawgs 488-230, running ball for 237 yards; Tigers are only 3-9 in last 12 games vs Georgia. Auburn won its last five games overall- they won Iron Bowl last week, have to bounce back here with another strong effort. Georgia’s 20-19 win at Notre Dame in September is only game they played all year that was decided by less than 14 points- their loss to Auburn is their only loss this season. Dawgs lost SEC title game in 2011-12; they last won it in 2005. Auburn won its last appearance here, over Missouri in 2013.

Mountain West title game, Boise
Fresno State (+6.5) upset Boise 28-17 at home last Saturday; Bulldogs won eight of last nine games after losing at Alabama/Washington in September. Fresno won its last four games overall, allowing 14.5 ppg- they’re 5-0 vs spread as an underdog. Boise State had won seven in a row before last week; Broncos are 4-1 vs spread this year in games with single-digit spread. Boise is in Mountain West title game for first time in three years; Fresno won it in 2013, lost it the next year. Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Fresno games, over is 3-2 in last five Boise games.

ACC title game, Charlotte
Clemson beat Miami 58-0 in teams’ last meeting two years ago; Tigers won ACC title game last two years, 45-37/42-35. Hurricanes are in this game for first time- ‘canes lost at Pitt LW, but still have shot at national playoff. Miami is 4-1 vs spread in games where spread was single digits. Clemson won its last five games since their loss at Syracuse, when QB Bryant got hurt- they covered last three games, Tigers are 3-0 vs spread in games with single-digit spread. Eight of last nine Miami games stayed under total; under is 6-2-1 in last nine Clemson games.

Big 14 title game, Indianapolis
Unbeaten Wisconsin gets into playoff with upset win here; Badgers held 11 of 12 opponents to 17 or less points- they’re underdog for first time this year. Wisconsin is in Big 14 title game for 5th time in seven years- they lost 59-0 to Ohio State three years, lost 38-31 to Penn State LY. Ohio State won last three games, outscoring foes 131-37; they beat rival Michigan 31-20 LW. Buckeyes haven’t been in Big 14 title game the last two years. Eight of last nine Ohio State games went over total; over is 7-5 in Wisconsin games.

Big 12 title game, Dallas
Oklahoma (-6) beat TCU 38-20 at home three weeks ago- game was 38-14 at the half. Sooners outgained TCU 533-424. Oklahoma won its last seven games since a 38-31 home loss to Iowa State Oct 7- they covered four of last five games. TCU is 3-2 in its last five games after a 7-0 start, losing to Iowa St/Sooners; Horned Frogs got senior QB Hill back from injury LW- he missed the Texas Tech game two weeks ago. Over is 6-4 in Sooners’ last ten games; seven of last eight TCU games stayed under. This is first Big X title game since 2010; Sooners won five of last seven Big X championship games.