The Bum's 2017 College Football Picks-Trends-News Etc. !

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Friday, December 1

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Pac-12 Championship betting preview and odds: Stanford vs. USC
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Stanford Cardinal vs. Southern California Trojans (-4, 58.5)

Stanford will try to defeat USC in the Pac-12 championship game for the second time in three seasons when the No. 15 Cardinal meet the No. 9 Trojans at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Friday night. Stanford has won eight of its past nine following a 38-20 victory against No. 17 Notre Dame on Saturday, and USC has won four straight for the second time this season.

These teams met Sept. 9 in Los Angeles and the Trojans played one of their best games of the season, piling up 623 total yards in a 42-24 victory inside the Coliseum. USC quarterback Sam Darnold completed 21-of-26 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns, and led the Trojans on six touchdown drives of 75 yards or longer. Stanford's go-to player continues to be running back Bryce Love, who had 160 rushing yards on 17 carries and scored a touchdown in the first meeting, one of 10 games with at least 100 yards rushing this season. USC will see a different quarterback as sophomore K.J. Costello replaced senior Keller Chryst four games ago and is coming off his best performance, throwing for 176 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions against the Fighting Irish.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: USC opened as 3.5-point favorites and by Thursday night that number was bet up slightly to -4. The total hit betting boards at 57 and was bumped to 58.5.

WEATHER REPORT:

54 degrees at kickoff dropping to 49 by game's end - negligible winds with no chance of precipitation

INJURY REPORT:

Stanford - RB Bryce Love (Probable, Ankle), LB Joey Alfieri (Questionable, Shoulder), T Walker Little (Questionable, Undisclosed), LB Curtis Robinson (Doubtful, Undisclosed), DE Eric Cotton (Out, Foot), CB Terrence Alexander (Out Indefinitely, Forearm), CB Alijah Holder (Out For Season, Knee), LB Sean Barton (Out For Season, Knee).

USC - DT Rasheem Green (Probable, Shoulder), TE Tyler Petite (Probable, Shoulder), G Chris Brown (Probable, Shoulder), WR Velus Jones Jr. (Questionable, Ankle), T Andrew Vorhees (Questionable, Back), QB Matt Fink (Questionable, Knee), DE Porter Gustin (Out Indefinitely, Toe), RB James Toland IV (Out Indefinitely, Shoulder), LB Hunter Echols (Out Indefinitely, Hip), DL Jacob Lichtenstein (Out Indefinitely, Back), T Nathan Smith (Out Indefinitely, Knee), DL Jay Tufele (Out Indefinitely, Back), DT Marlon Tuipulotu (Out For Season, Back), S Isaiah Pola-Mao (Out For Season, Shoulder), CB Greg Johnson (Out For Season, Shoulder), CB Keyshawn Young (Out For Season, Hamstring), G Viane Talamaivao (Out For Season, Pectoral), PK Michael Brown (Out For Season, Knee), DB Johathan Lockett (Out For Season, Hip), LB Tayler Katoa (Out For Season, Knee).

ABOUT STANFORD (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS, 4-8 O/U): The Trojans will have their hands full trying to block senior Harrison Phillips, who leads all FBS defensive tackles with 16.5 tackles for loss, including 6.5 sacks. The Cardinal also have a dependable secondary led by strong safety Justin Reid, the conference's co-leader in interceptions with five, including one against the Trojans earlier this season. Reid displayed his versatility against Notre Dame, totaling nine tackles (three solo), a sack and a pass breakup.

ABOUT USC (10-2 SU, 3-8-1 ATS, 7-5 O/U): The Trojans will also have a somewhat different look than the last meeting against Stanford as the leading rusher from that game, Stephen Carr, hasn't bounced back from a four-game absence in October because of a foot injury. Carr has appeared in two games since his return, but totaled only 12 rushing yards on four carries and caught three passes for 59 yards. Ronald Jones II has flourished as the No. 1 back for USC, especially in the past four games, combining for 674 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in that span.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.
* Trojans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Under is 7-0 in Cardinal last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The favorite USC Trojans are picking up 66 percent of the spread picks and Over is grabbing 64 percent of the totals wagers.

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

STAN at USC 08:00 PM

STAN +4.0

O 58.0

[StarDust Bum]

Friday's Best Bet
November 30, 2017

Pac 12 Championship (ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Stanford vs. USC

Conference Championship week begins in earnest on Friday night with the Pac-12 title up for grabs, and while everyone will be focused on these games in terms of the CFB playoff and who ends up getting in/out, bettors have to remember that these games are still huge to all the programs involved. Every college football program starts out each new year with two specific goals: Win 6+ games to be Bowl eligible, and win their conference championship. The former has already been accomplished for teams in these games, but the latter is what's at stake this weekend (along with a potential CFB playoff berth for some) and those stakes simply can't be taken lightly here.

What's even more interesting about this weekend is the fact that of the nine Conference Championship games we've got, seven of them, including this Pac-12 Title game, are rematches from games played previously this year. It's not often you get rematches in the same season of a college football season, so to have this many is quite unique.

That many rematches also puts potential “revenge” angles in play for numerous teams, and in the Pac-12's case, Stanford is looking to avenge a 42-24 drubbing by USC back in early September.

USC (-4); Total set at 58.5

A lot has changed for both teams since that meeting during Week 2 of the season, but oddsmakers appear to believe it's all worked out in the wash for the most part as the Trojans are laying the same number they were back then. With this game being on a neutral field this time as opposed to USC being at home, the identical number does translate to a -6 or -7 spread if USC was at home once again, as over the course of the entire campaign, it's not hard to argue that the Trojans were in fact the better team and deserving of laying this number.

However, teams from the Pac-12 South like USC is are winless in the Pac-12 Championship game since it's inception in 2011. It's been six straight victories by teams from the North, including in 2015 when this same Stanford program (then ranked #7) beat up on the USC Trojans (then ranked 24th) by a final score of 41-22. Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey was the game's MVP, and with the Stanford's new RB superstar Bryce Love being in the Heisman conversation all year, they'd love to see a similar outcome on Friday night. But this is not a side I want any part of going either way as there are both pros and cons working against both teams.

For USC, they've got history working against them with the drought Pac-12 South teams are on in this series, although this is also the first time the Pac-12 South representative has actually been ranked higher than their opponent from the North. The revenge angle isn't in the Trojans favor either, and the fact that it's been nearly a month since USC played quality competition – which didn't end well at all with a 49-14 loss @ Notre Dame – has me hesitant to lay the chalk. The Trojans do have extra rest though with their lone bye week of the year coming last week, which is always a plus.

For Stanford, they've got history on their side regarding the Pac-12 North's success in this game, the revenge angle in their favor, and a dominant RB that can break open a game in a hurry. But Bryce Love has been dealing with a high ankle sprain injury for the latter half of the year and his explosiveness is all but gone except for a play or two. A play or two might be all that Stanford needs to claim this contest, but with Love's nagging injury holding him to a high of 166 rushing yards the past six games – compared to a low of 160 (vs USC) and a high of 301 in his first five games – Stanford might have a tough time on their hands scoring points to keep pace with a USC attack that is clearly the strength of their squad.

Therefore, I'm looking at this total of 58.5 and viewing it as a touch too high given the stakes for this game. Yes, I know these two teams combined for 66 points in the first meeting, but the war of attrition that is the CFB season has claimed numerous significant casualties on both sides limiting each attack in different ways. Given that it's also a championship game with much higher stakes then the first meeting, I do expect the defenses to show up more than they did in the first meeting. And similar to division rematches in NFL games – the only really comparable scenario in terms of football rematches in the same season – I'm never opposed to flip-flopping the results both ATS and O/U for that return matchup, but like I said, the side doesn't really interest me for this specific game.

Furthermore, Stanford has been a great 'under' bet in Pac-12 play all year with a 1-6 O/U record in their lst seven conference games, and when coming off an outright win this year, the Cardinal are 1-7 O/U as well. Throw in the fact that USC finally had a week off to heal some bumps and bruises after playing for 11 straight weeks and the energy and effectiveness of their defense will get a nice boost. The Trojans are also 0-4 O/U when coming off a bye week the past few years.

So with Stanford wanting to likely play a ball control style of offense with their ground game leading the way, and Love's ability to break those 60+ yard runs with regularity in doubt because of the ankle injury, I fully expect this clock to be bleeding away for the entirety, and neither side to have too many possessions overall. And contrary to many believe about USC and all the talk about QB Sam Darnold and his NFL stock, the Trojans are actually a team that prefer to use the run heavily when they can because then things open up much more for Darnold in the aerial attack.

This game will likely finish with the winner somewhere in the 20's for points on the scoreboard, and as long as we don't get OT and have to sweat out those extra possessions, cashing an 'under' ticket appears to be the best way to bet this contest.

Best Bet: Under 58.5 points

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Championship Preview
November 30, 2017

Southern California (10-2 straight up, 3-8-1 against the spread) trounced Stanford by a 42-24 count as a 3.5-point home favorite to snap a three-year losing streak to the Cardinal. However, that was back on Sept. 9 in Week 2 of the 2017 campaign.

The rematch will be Friday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on ESPN at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. Santa Clara is in the San Francisco Bay Area, so the Trojans will have to travel all the way up to the California coast. Meanwhile, David Shaw’s team will simply have a short drive to the home of the 49ers. To be clear, though, we only point that out for the travel factor. Bettors shouldn’t expect Stanford to have an advantage in terms of crowd numbers and support.

As of Thursday afternoon, most books had USC installed as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5 for ‘over/under’ wagers. The Cardinal was +165 on the money line (risk $100 to win $165). For first-half wagers, the Trojans were favored by three points (with a reduced -105 price tag) with a total of 30 (‘under’ -115).

Stanford (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) has won three consecutive games and eight of its last nine, including last week’s 38-20 win over Notre Dame as a three-point home underdog. The Cardinal has now won outright in all four home underdog situations since David Shaw took over for Jim Harbaugh.

The 58 combined points fell ‘under’ the 58.5 points. The ‘under’ is on a 7-1 run for the Cardinal.

K.J. Costello threw a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes to help turn a 20-17 deficit into a convincing victory. First, Costello found his roommate, redshirt freshman tight end Kaden Smith, for a 19-yard scoring strike to give Stanford the lead for good. Next, the RS freshman QB found another TE, Dalton Schultz, on a 12-yard TD pass. Cameron Scarlett rounded out the scoring with a three-yard TD dash with 10:10 remaining in the fourth quarter.

Costello completed 14-of-22 passes for 176 yards and four TDs without an interception. Bryce Love rushed 20 times for 125 yards, while Smith brought down three receptions for 65 yards and the aforementioned TD grab.

Love has enjoyed a sensational season as a junior, filling the shoes of the departed Christian McCaffrey without missing a beat. Love has rushed for 1,848 yards and 16 TDs with an incredible 8.6 yards-per-carry average. He produced those numbers despite missing a 15-14 win at Oregon State due to an ankle injury that had him playing at less than 100 percent for most of November.

Costello became the full-time starter in October and appears to be improving each week. The Santa Margarita Catholic HS product has completed 61.7 percent of his passes for 1,194 yards with a 9/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. With Love doing his thing, taking care of the ball is the priority for Costello and he’s only been picked twice on 162 pass attempts. He has also rushed for 99 yards and three scores with a 4.7 YPC average.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside has a team-best 41 receptions for 633 yards and six TDs, while Trenton Irwin has 39 catches for 436 yards and two TDs. Smith has 19 receptions for 334 yards and three TDs. The former five-star recruit out of the Dallas area who spurned Alabama for Tight End U has been more of a factor in recent weeks, catching eight balls for 145 yards and two TDs in the past three games.

Stanford is ranked 25th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up 20.7 points per game. As for the offense, it ranks 36th nationally with a 32.3 PPG scoring average.

The defense is led by junior safety Justin Reid, who has a team-best 88 tackles, five interceptions, one sack, 3.5 tackles for loss, four passes broken up and two QB hurries. Junior DT Harrison Phillips has recorded 86 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL’s, two forced fumbles and six QB hurries.

Unlike Stanford, USC has had two weeks to prepare for this game. However, it didn’t know its opponent until Washington thumped Washington St. by a 41-14 count this past Saturday night. The Trojans have won four in a row since getting clobbered 49-14 at Notre Dame on Oct. 21.

Clay Helton’s team is off a 28-23 non-covering win over UCLA as a 14.5-point home ‘chalk.’ USC never trailed but it never got ahead of the number, either. In fact, the Bruins had a 501-417 advantage in total offense. The 51 combined points fell ‘under’ the 70.5-point total to end a stretch of five consecutive ‘overs’ in USC games.

Sam Darnold completed 17-of-28 passes for 264 yards, but he was intercepted once and didn’t have a TD pass. Darnold did have a rushing score, however. Ronald Jones found paydirt on the ground twice, finishing with 122 rushing yards on 28 attempts. Steven Mitchell had four receptions for 56 yards, while Deontay Burnett brought down four catches for 55 yards.

For the season, Darnold has connected on 63.3 percent of his throws for 3,462 yards with a 24/12 TD-INT ratio. However, Darnold has trimmed down the turnovers since September. He has a 15/4 TD-INT ratio in his team’s past seven games.

Jones has rushed for 1,346 yards and 16 TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. He has 12 catches for 159 yards and one TD. Jones, the junior RB from McKinney, TX, has produced 122 yards or more on the ground in four consecutive games.

Burnett is Darnold’s favorite target, hauling in 73 receptions for 966 yards and nine TDs. Tyler Vaughns has 48 receptions for 664 yards and four TDs, while Mitchell has 39 grabs for 578 yards and four TDs.

USC is ranked 13th in the country in total offense, 18th in passing yards, 36th in rushing yards and 26nd in scoring with a 34.8 points-per-game average. On the flip side, the Trojans are No. 80 in the nation in total defense, No. 104 versus the pass and 60th in scoring ‘D’ (26.2 PPG).

The defense has been without one of its best players, junior DE Porter Gustin, for most of the season and he remains ‘out.’ This unit is led by junior LB Cameron Smith, who has recorded 95 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, one interception, one QB hurry and one pass broken up. Sophomore CB Jack Jones has 38 tackles, four interceptions, seven PBU, one forced fumble and one blocked kick.

Stanford will be without starting senior DE Eric Cotton, who has 30 tackles, three sacks, 1.5 TFL’s and two QB hurries. Cotton is dealing with a foot injury. Junior LB Joey Alferi (shoulder) is listed as ‘questionable,’ while sophomore LB Curtis Robinson (undisclosed) is ‘doubtful.’ Alferi has 34 tackles, two sacks, 1.5 TFL’s and a pair of QB hurries. Robinson has produced 23 tackles, one interception, one PBU and 1.5 TFL’s.

USC has been a single-digit favorite four times this year, compiling a 3-1 record both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Stanford has been an underdog three times, going 2-1 both SU and ATS.

The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for Stanford, with its games averaging combined scores of 53.0 PPG.

The ‘over’ is 7-5 overall for the Trojans, going 5-1 in their last six outings. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 61.0 PPG.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- ESPN reported Thursday that Ole Miss will receive its punishment from the NCAA’s Committee of Infractions on Friday morning. The Rebels are facing 15 Level-1 violations.

-- North Texas star RB Jeffrey Wilson is ‘out’ at FAU due to an ankle injury. Wilson had rushed for 1,215 yards and 16 TDs with a 6.5 YPC average in the Mean Green’s first 11 games.

-- J.T. Barrett is ‘probable’ and expected to start vs. Wisconsin at the Big Ten Championship Game, but reports on Thursday revealed that the QB had his knee scoped this past Sunday.

-- ULM has covered the spread in five straight games as a double-digit underdog. The Warhawks are 27-point ‘dogs Saturday at Florida State.

-- I’ll be providing my opinions on Tennessee’s absolutely incompetent AD John Currie in my nuggets at the end of my SEC Championship Game preview.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Championship Preview
November 30, 2017

Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Texas Christian
Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
Time/TV: 12:30 p.m. ET - ABC
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, Tex.
Line, Total: Sooners -7, 63.5

The Big 12 Championship Game is back for the first time since 2010 when Oklahoma and Nebraska did battle. Moves from Colorado to the Pac-12 and Nebraska to the Big 12 meant the end of the game, with just 10 schools remaining in the conference.

The Oklahoma Sooners (11-1 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread) are back in the title game and ready for a rematch against the Texas Christian Horned Frogs (10-2 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread). These two teams just met on Nov. 11, with the Sooners taking care of business in Norman by a 38-20 score as six-point favorites. OU easily covers, and the 'under' (63.5) ended up hitting in that game. The total is the same exactly number for this game despite the change of venue to the faster track on the field turf of AT&T Stadium.

The Sooners have had a wild and crazy ride to get to Arlington. They posted a signature win back on Sept. 9 at Ohio State, taking a 31-16 road win, one of four straight victories out of the chute. They entered play on Oct. 7 coming off a bye as a 31-point favorite against Iowa State. It looked like they were going to roll right along against the Cyclones, but they suffered a 38-31 loss at home in Norman, quite stunning at the time. The loss proved to be less embarrassing that previously thought, as Iowa State was a handful in the conference for the remainder of the season. The loss also served as a wake-up call for head coach Lincoln Riley's bunch, as the Sooners rattled off seven straight wins since.

The Sooners are making their eighth trip to the Big 12 title game, and their fifth appearance in the past six installments of the game. Oklahoma won 23-20 in the most recent game in 2010, and they are 7-0 SU/ATS in their previous appearances, covering as favorite every single game.

For TCU, they weren't supposed to be a contender in the Big 12, at least this quickly. The 2017 season was one where they were expected to be in the middle of the pack, but they quickly jelled and fired off to a 7-0 SU start. A 44-31 win at Oklahoma State back on Sept. 23 fast-tracked the Horned Frogs into the national picture, and there was even talk about a potential spot in the College Football Playoff for a few weeks. A win against West Virginia on Oct. 7, and a 26-6 victory at Kansas State on Oct. 14, further bolstered their resume. But like Oklahoma, the Horned Frogs were bitten by the upset machine that is Iowa State, falling 14-7 on Oct. 28 in Ames.

TCU's biggest strength is their rush defense, ranking No. 2 nationally with just 90.0 yards per game allowed on the ground. They also ranked eighth overall in scoring defense, yielding just 15.7 points per game. In terms of total yards, the Horned Frogs are very stingy, too, giving up just 317.5 yards per outing. If they're going to be beaten, it's via the pass game, where they're a rather middling 73rd in the country giving up 227.5 yards per contest through the air. Unfortunately for TCU, that's a strenght of Oklahoma.

On offense, the Horned Frogs ranked 47th in total yards (422.1 YPG), while ranking 57th in the country with 238.0 YPG. The Horned Frogs also posted 34.5 PPG to rank 28th in the nation, and their kicking game is one of the better units in the country, too, connecting on 84.6 percent of their attempts to check in 16th in the nation.

It all starts with QB Kenny Hill, an elusive dual-threat option under center. He is more of a pass-first, run-later type quarterback. He completed 66.6 percent of his pass attempts (215-of-323) for 2,604 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions while rushing 78 times for 215 yards and four scores. The senior quarterback from powerhouse Carroll Senior High in Southlake, Tex. just cannot be coaxed into many mistakes. For a guy who handles the ball as much as he does, he just doesn't put it on the ground or give it away to the opposition through the air.

The running game suffered a big loss when Darius Anderson went down with a season-ending foot injury in the Oklahoma game. He posted 768 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on 128 attempts (6.0 yards per carry), serving as the hammer in the run game, and he still leads the team in rushing even after missing several games. Anderson wasn't much of a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield, but No. 2 leading rusher Kyle Hicks certainly can be. Hicks rolled for 565 yards and four touchdowns on 4.5 yards per tote, but he also hauled in 17 passes for 208 and a score. Sewo Olonilua stepped up near the end of the season to give head coach Gary Patterson another option down the stretch, posting 100 rushing yards and a touchdown on 13 carries in the final two games.

In the pass game there were four receivers with 26 or more receptions. WR John Diarse led the team with 477 yards and 17.0 yards per reception, while WR Desmon White posted a team-high 33 catches while finding the end zone four times. Freshman WR Jaelen Raeger led the squad with six touchdown receptions, while WR KaVontae Turpin is an athletewho posted 32 grabs, 343 yards and a touchdown while also throwing a touchdown pass and running for two others. If there is a trick play, you can be sure Turpin will be in the middle of the plan.

On the Oklahoma side, QB Baker Mayfield is in the driver's seat for the Heisman Trophy. He drew attention to himself this season for his antics on the sideline, exuberance and overall solid play. He also drew attention for negative reasons in the Kansas game, after Jayhawks players refused to shake his hand. During the game, he made obscene gestures while yelling expletives at their sideline, and it cost him a start in the regular-season finale and a spot as captain on Senior Day. It's all water under the bridge now, though, and he'll likely be highly motivated heading into this one.

Mayfield completed 71.4 percent of his passes in a dream season, throwing for 4,097 yards, 37 touchdowns and five interceptions while running 79 times for 245 yards and five touchdowns. He has posted big numbers against the best of them, and he threw for 333 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in the Nov. 11 win against TCU. He also threw for 598 yards and five touchdowns in the Nov. 4 rivalry game against Oklahoma State. He has passed for three or more touchdowns in each of his past five outings, and at least two touchdown passes in all 12 games this season.

WR Marquise Brown was on the end of many of Mayfield's passes, posting a season best 894 yards and five touchdowns with a team-best 19.4 yards per reception. TE Mark Andrews had the most receptions (51), and he was second on the team behind WR CeeDee Lamb in touchdown catches. Lamb led the team with seven scoring grabs, while Andrews made it into the end zone on six occasions. Seven receivers posted at least three touchdowns, so Mayfield likes to spread it around.

RB Rodney Anderson was good for a team-best 867 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. He and backup RB Trey Sermon were a nice one-two punch on the ground, totaling over 1,500 total rushing yards. While Mayfield garners all of the attention, the Sooners would be nowhere without their powerful run game. The Sooners were second in the nation in passing (377.8 yards per game), but they ranked a respectable 28th in the nation in rushing yards (215.8 per game). The big-time passing game and strong rushing performances helped the Sooners rank fourth in the nation in scoring (45.2 PPG).

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Horned Frogs have covered just two of their past 10 neutral-site games, and they're 2-5 ATS in their past seven games played in the month of December. They're also just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games following a straight-up victory, and 1-6 ATS in their past seven outings after a straight-up win of more than 20 points. However, they're also 5-0 ATS in their past five following an ATS loss while going 4-0 ATS in their past four appearances on a field turf surface.

-- The Sooners have been red hot against the number lately, going 4-1 ATS in their past five games overall, and 4-1 ATS in their past five against conference foes. They're also 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games against teams with an overall winning record. As mentioned, they're also 7-0 SU/ATS all-time in the Big 12 title game, but just 1-7 ATS in their past eight games played on a neutral site.

-- The 'under' has been the dominant trend for the Horned Frogs lately, going 7-1 in their past eight games overall. The under is also 4-0 in TCU's past four against teams iwth an overall winning record, 5-1 in their past six following a straight-up win and 7-2 in their past nine on a field turf surface. The under is also 19-7 in their past 26 against conference foes.

-- The 'under' has been a frequent play for OU lately, too. The under is 6-1 in their past seven neutral-site games while going 14-3-1 in their past 18 games in the month of December. The under is also 6-2 in their past eight against teams with a winning overall record, although the 'over' is an impressive 24-10-1 in their past 35 on a field turf surface.

-- In this series the under has connected in six of the past eight meetings, including the matchup just a few weeks ago in Norman.

Big 12 Championship History

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP (1996-2010)
Team Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2017 Oklahoma-TCU - - -
2010 Oklahoma-Nebraska Oklahoma -4.5 (51.5) Oklahoma 23-20 Underdog-Over
2009 Texas-Nebraska Texas -14 (46.5) Texas 13-12 Underdog-Under
2008 Oklahoma-Missouri Oklahoma -17 (79) Oklahoma 62-21 Favorite-Over
2007 Oklahoma-Missouri Oklahoma -3 (64.5) Oklahoma 38-17 Favorite-Under
2006 Oklahoma-Nebraska Oklahoma -3.5 (45) Oklahoma 21-7 Favorite-Under
2005 Colorado-Texas Texas -25 (60.5) Texas 70-3 Favorite-Over
2004 Colorado-Oklahoma Oklahoma -22 (55) Oklahoma 42-3 Favorite-Under
2003 Kansas State-Oklahoma Oklahoma -14 (53) Kansas State 35-7 Underdog-Under
2002 Oklahoma-Colorado Oklahoma -7.5 (53) Oklahoma 29-7 Favorite-Under
2001 Colorado-Texas Texas -9 (48.5) Colorado 39-37 Underdog-Over
2000 Kansas State-Oklahoma Oklahoma -2.5 (53.5) Oklahoma 27-24 Favorite-Under
1999 Nebraska-Texas Nebraska -7(51) Nebraska 22-6 Favorite-Under
1998 Kansas State-Texas A&M Kansas State -17 (46.5) Texas A&M 36-33 Underdog-Over
1997 Nebraska-Texas A&M Nebraska -18 (52.5) Nebraska 54-15 Favorite-Over
1996 Nebraska-Texas Nebraska -20.5 (55.5) Texas 37-27 Underdog-Over

[StarDust Bum]

Big 10 Championship Preview
November 30, 2017

Ohio State (-6) vs Wisconsin - (FOX, 8:00 PM ET)
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, Indiana

Ohio State - A struggling Michigan offense with serious problems at QB gave OSU all they could handle last Saturday. John O’Korn got the start under center for the Wolverines as recent starter Brandon Peters was out with a head injury. Despite O’Korn completing barely over 50% of his passes in the game and missing a number of open receivers, Michigan jumped out to a 14-0 lead and the Buckeyes didn’t take their first lead until 1:34 remaining in the third quarter.

Ohio State’s final touchdown of the game came with just 1:44 remaining and gave them the 31-20 win. Neither team was overly impressive on offense as OSU had 350 yards and Michigan had 295. The 350 yards of offense for the Bucks was tied for their lowest output of the entire season as Oklahoma also held this team to same yard total. OSU was forced to punt 6 times which may not seem like a big deal, however it was only the second time all season they punted more than 4 times in a game.

One of the keys to this potent offense is obviously QB JT Barrett. He left last week’s game in the fourth quarter with a knee injury and while he says he will play in this one, it’s something we’ll have to keep a close eye on all week long. At the time in which Barrett exited with 5:00 minutes remaining in the third quarter he had only completed 3 passes in the game.

His back up, Dwayne Haskins, came in and played quite well completing 6 of 7 passes for nearly 100 yards and he also ran for 24 yards on 3 carries. If Haskins is pushed into a starting role here, he has been picked up some much needed experience this year and been impressive completing 40 of his 57 pass attempts for 4 TD’s and just 1 interception.

Wisconsin – Many continue to doubt the Badgers due to their schedule, but the fact is they just keep beating who stands in front of them and doing it rather easily. Last week they rolled over Minnesota 31-0 holding the Gophers to just 133 total yards on 48 plays (2.7 YPP). Minnesota had only 46 yards in the first half and didn’t pick up their initial first down until just 41 seconds remaining until halftime. The Badgers held Minny to just THREE pass completions the entire game!

With that effort, the Badger defense has moved to #1 nationally in total defense allowing just 237 YPG. That’s a full 20 yards better than second place Alabama. They are allowing opponents to gain only 4.0 YPP (least in the nation) and this defense has allowed only 12 offensive TD’s in their 12 games this season.

Now the Big Ten has not been an “offensive” conference this year with only 3 teams ranked in the top 50 nationally in total offense (OSU, PSU, and Wisconsin) so we’ll find out just how good this defense is on Saturday when they face, by far, the best offense they’ve seen this season (OSU ranked 4th nationally in total offense).

Last week, Wisconsin was very good offensively as well tallying 456 yards including 287 on the ground. QB Alex Hornibrook was extremely efficient with just 4 incompletions in his 19 pass attempts. It was a game many though UW might struggle with coming off a huge Michigan win but they dominated from start to finish.

The Badgers will bring their “A” game here. They blew a big lead in last year’s Big Ten Championship game eventually losing a close game to PSU and were embarrassed by OSU in 2014 in this game 59-0. Will their top effort be enough if OSU brings their best as well is the million dollar question.

The Breakdown

Common Opponents

These two had 6 common opponents this season (Michigan, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Indiana, and Nebraska). We broke down the results of each team in those games only and here is how the numbers worked out:

Ohio State was 5-1 vs those 6 opponents (3-3 ATS). The Buckeyes scored 274 points in those games for an average of 45.6 PPG. The Buckeye defense allowed 138 points in those games for an opponent average of 23 PPG. The OSU offense gained 3,077 total yards on 473 offensive plays in those games. That’s an average of 512 YPG on 6.5 yards per play.

The Buckeye defense allowed 1,783 total yards on 385 plays vs those 6 opponents. That’s an average of 297 YPG allowed on 4.6 yards per play. Thus, OSU vs common opponents was +22 PPG, +215 YPG, and +1.9 YPP.

Wisconsin was 6-0 vs those 6 common opponents (5-1 ATS). The Badgers scored 207 points in those games for an average of 34.5 PPG. The UW defense allowed 81 points in those games for an opponent average of 13.5 PPG. The Wisconsin offense gained 2,323 total yards on 395 plays in those games. That’s an average of 387 YPG on 5.9 yards per play.

The Badger defense allowed 1.501 total yards on 377 plays vs those 6 opponents. That’s an average of 250 YPG allowed on 3.9 yards per play. Thus, Wisconsin vs common opponents was +21 PPG, +187 YPG, and +2.0 YPP.

Inside the Numbers

This will be Wisconsin’s 5th appearance in the seven-year history of the Big Ten Championship game. The Badgers are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in this game. They were favored in 3 of those 4 games and the only other time (besides this year) Wisconsin was an underdog was in 2012. They were +3 vs Nebraska that year and won the game outright 70-31.

Surprisingly, OSU has appeared in just 2 of the 6 Big Ten Championships thus far. They are 1-1 SU & ATS in those games with their one win coming in 2014 vs this Badger team 59-0! The Buckeyes have won 8 of the last 9 meetings with Wisconsin outright.

The underdog has covered 12 of the last 16 in this Big Ten battle. This is the first time the Badgers have been an underdog this season. They are 14-5 ATS overall in that role vs all opponents dating back to 2009. OSU is 19-10 ATS overall as a favorite of a TD or less dating back to the 2005 season.

History

BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP (2011-2016)
Year Matchup Line (Total) Score ATS Result
2016 Penn State-Wisconsin Wisconsin -3 (45) Penn State 38-31 Underdog-Over
2015 Iowa-Michigan State Michigan State -3.5 (52.5) Michigan State 16-13 Underdog-Under
2014 Wisconsin-Ohio State Wisconsin -4 (54) Ohio State 59-0 Underdog-Over
2013 Michigan State-Ohio State Ohio State -5.5 (53.5) Michigan State 34-24 Underdog-Over
2012 Wisconsin-Nebraska Nebraska -2.5 (48) Wisconsin 70-31 Underdog-Over
2011 Wisconsin-Michigan State Wisconsin -9.5 (56) Wisconsin 42-39 Underdog-Over

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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

STAN at USC 08:00 PM

STAN +4.0

O 58.0

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No. 11 USC beats No. 14 Stanford 31-28 for Pac-12 title
December 1, 2017

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) Sam Darnold threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns and engineered a back-breaking 99-yard drive following a goal-line stand in the fourth quarter to lead No. 11 Southern California to a 31-28 victory over No. 14 Stanford in the Pac-12 championship game on Friday night.

''It was time to dig deep and win a championship,'' coach Clay Helton said. ''When you're trying to win one, those are the plays that are going to define you and define your football team.''

Darnold threw touchdown passes to Michael Pittman Jr. and Tyler Vaughns to stake the Trojans (11-2, No. 10 CFP) to the lead. He then delivered one of the biggest plays of the game when he stepped up to avoid pressure in the end zone before connecting on a 54-yard pass to Pittman to spark the key touchdown drive in the fourth.

Ronald Jones finished that drive with an 8-yard run that made it 31-21 to cap a productive night where he ran for 140 yards and two touchdowns to give USC its first Pac-12 title since 2008.

The long drive came after USC stuffed Stanford (9-4, No. 12) at the goal line to preserve the lead. With Bryce Love nursing an injured ankle on the sideline, Cameron Scarlett was stopped on successive runs from inside the 2, including a fourth-down try from the 1 that was stopped by Uchenna Nwosu.

''We told our guys to hunker down and this is what Trojan football is,'' Nwosu said. ''We were able to make a play.''

Stanford coach David Shaw had no regrets about his decision even though the Cardinal were unable to get the touchdown on offense or the stop on defense to make it pay off.

''The bottom line is we had opportunities and we didn't make enough plays,'' Shaw said. ''We made enough plays to keep it close but not enough plays to win. The sequence of fourth-and-1 to take the lead in the Pac-12 championship game, there's no hesitation at all. That's what we're going to do.''

Darnold sealed the game with a 15-yard pass to Josh Falo on fourth-and-2 to let USC run out the clock.

The win gives USC a season sweep against Stanford and will likely send the Trojans to the Fiesta Bowl. USC still holds out hope for a spot in the four-team playoff if there are several upsets in other conference title games on Saturday but the chances appear to be remote.

THE TAKEAWAY

STANFORD: Love ran for 125 yards and had his FBS-record 12th run of at least 50 yards that set up K.J. Costello's 11-yard TD pass to Kaden Smith that cut USC's lead to 24-21 late in the third quarter. Costello added a 28-yard TD pass to Smith with 2:09 remaining but wasn't nearly consistent enough to keep pace with Darnold. Costello finished 10 for 22 for 192 yards.

USC: The Trojans had a balanced offensive performance with Pittman catching seven passes for 146 yards and Jones doing solid work on the ground. The defense came up with the big stop at the goal line. But it probably won't be enough to overcome the earlier losses at Washington State and Notre Dame to lift the Trojans into the playoff even if they get help Saturday.

UP NEXT

Both teams will get their bowl bids on Sunday with USC likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl and Stanford expected to go to the Holiday Bowl.

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Saturday, December 2, 2017
Time (ET) Away Home
12:00 PM Massachusetts Minutemen Florida International Golden Panthers
12:00 PM Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Florida State Seminoles
12:00 PM North Texas Mean Green Florida Atlantic Owls
12:00 PM Akron Zips Toledo Rockets
12:00 PM Memphis Tigers Central Florida Knights
12:30 PM Texas Christian Horned Frogs Oklahoma Sooners
1:00 PM Georgia Southern Eagles Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
2:00 PM Idaho Vandals Georgia State Panthers
2:30 PM Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns Appalachian State Mountaineers
4:00 PM Georgia Bulldogs Auburn Tigers
4:30 PM South Alabama Jaguars New Mexico State Aggies
7:30 PM Troy Trojans Arkansas State Red Wolves
7:45 PM Fresno State Bulldogs Boise State Broncos
8:00 PM Miami-Florida Hurricanes Clemson Tigers
8:00 PM Ohio State Buckeyes Wisconsin Badgers

**********************************

December CFB Record Thru The Bowl Games: ( BASED ON 5 UNITS )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/01/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00


BEST BETS:.......................ATS................... ....UNITS...........................O/U.................UNITS

12/01/2017......................1 - 0 ......................+5.00....................... ....1 - 0................+5.00

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CFB notebook: Fisher makes jump to Texas A&M
December 1, 2017

The saga over whether Jimbo Fisher would stay or leave ended Friday when he submitted his resignation to Florida State officials and accepted Texas A&M's offer to become that school's new coach.

Florida State officials formally announced Fisher's departure later Friday.

"Coach Fisher did an exceptional job as both an assistant coach at FSU and in the challenging role of successor to the legendary Bobby Bowden," Florida State president John Thrasher said in a statement. "I believe Texas A&M is getting one of the best coaches in college football."

Fisher, 52, had been hoping to coach the Seminoles on Saturday against Louisiana-Monroe but Florida State officials pushed for a decision. At the same time, Texas A&M regents on Thursday reportedly approved Fisher as coach of the Aggies during a meeting.

--Less than one week after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery, Ohio State senior quarterback J.T. Barrett is a game-day decision for Saturday's Big Ten title game between the eighth-ranked Buckeyes and No. 4 Wisconsin.

Barrett, who had the procedure done last Sunday after aggravating a right knee inury when he was hit on the sidelines in last Saturday's game against rival Michigan, has been undergoing 15 hours of treatment per day in hopes of returning to the field Saturday.

Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said Barrett's week of treatment has been "very positive," but added that the quarterback's health situation is still "very delicate."

--Former Tennessee Volunteers head coach Phillip Fulmer took over as athletic director after John Currie was placed on leave with pay, the university announced.

"I am confident that Phillip understands the need to support our student-athletes and our commitment to excellence in all athletic programs," Chancellor Beverly Davenport said in a statement. "I appreciate his willingness to serve during this critical time. No one better understands the storied history of Vol athletics and its deep connection to alumni and fans, and I believe he will be a unifying presence for all of us committed to the university's success."

The whirlwind of events with Currie out as Tennessee AD after just eight months on the job and Fulmer in came after the Volunteers backed out of a hiring agreement with Greg Schiano following a public backlash and campus protests.

--The NCAA hit the Ole Miss football team with more punishment, including an additional year from playing in the postseason in 2018.

Ole Miss will be banned from playing in a bowl again next season and the Rebels also received additional scholarship deductions in the ruling the university received from the NCAA committee on infractions. The university previously self-imposed a bowl ban for this season when it received a notice of allegations in February.

Because of the two-year bowl ban, NCAA rules state Ole Miss players could become free to transfer elsewhere without sitting out a season.

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 2
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MEM at UCF 12:00 PM
MEM +6.5
U 80.5

UNT at FAU 12:00 PM
FAU -11.0
O 71.0

MASS at FIU 12:00 PM
MASS -3.0

ULM at FSU 12:00 PM
ULM +26.0

AKR at TOL 12:00 PM
TOL -20.5
O 60.5

TCU at OKLA 12:30 PM
TCU +7.0
U 64.0

GASO at CCAR 01:00 PM
GASO -3.0
O 49.5

IDHO at GSU 02:00 PM
IDHO +7.0
U 45.5

ULL at APP 02:30 PM
APP -14.5
O 58.5

UGA at AUB 04:00 PM
AUB +1.5
U 47.0

USA at NMSU 04:30 PM
USA +10.5
O 53.5

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Playoff Takeaways: Sooners make it easy for CFP committee
December 2, 2017

There are plenty of reasons to leave Ohio State and Alabama out of the College Football Playoff.

But the rules say the selection committee has to pick four teams so one of them is most certainly getting in.

In the fourth year of the playoff, the selection committee faces its toughest choice yet. A real controversy, one with no particularly good answer. The committee will let everyone know which four teams will be playing in the New Year's Day semifinals on Sunday. Three will be easy: Defending national champion Clemson, Southeastern Conference champion Georgia and Big 12 champ Oklahoma are getting in.

Then it's ... Alabama? Or Ohio State?

Two of college football's blues bloods, biggest brands and historically successful teams. Also, two teams many fans love to hate. No matter the committee's decision there will be complaints of favoritism and conspiracy theories.

Did you know Ohio State's athletic director, Gene Smith, is on the committee? He is recused when the Buckeyes are discussed, and you can bet there will be a lot of discussion about `Bama and the Buckeyes.

The lobbying started immediately after the Buckeyes handed Wisconsin its first loss of the season, 27-21, in the Big Ten title game Saturday night.

Alabama coach Nick Saban was on ESPN's ''SportsCenter'' making his pitch: ''I think you have to look at the whole body of work. The entire season. If you look at it like that I think our team gets strong consideration and is very deserving to be in the playoff.''

At almost the same time, Ohio State coach Urban Meyer was accepting a Big Ten championship trophy in Indianapolis, touting his team: ''We have two wins over two top-four teams (Penn State was No. 2 when the Buckeyes beat it). We're the conference champions. We deserve a shot.''

The case for and against each:

Alabama (11-1, CFP No. 5)

Pros

- The Crimson Tide always win the eye test. No team has a more talented and deeper roster.

- Alabama's only loss was by 12 at Auburn (10-3), a team that even after losing the SEC title game to Georgia will probably finish in the committee's top 10.

- Other than the Auburn game, Alabama's only real challenge came at Mississippi State. The Tide won by eight at Texas A&M, but the Aggies' scored in the last 20 seconds to make that look closer than it was.

Cons

- Alabama's best victories will be against LSU (9-3) and Mississippi State (8-4). They are likely the only teams Alabama beat that will be ranked Sunday. LSU was 17 last week.

- Alabama did not win its division, let alone its conference. That was not a problem last year for Ohio State, but those 11-1 Buckeyes had victories over three top-10 teams and a three-point loss on the road to another top-10 team.

Ohio State (11-2, CFP No. 8)

Pros

- The Buckeyes do just fine with the eye test, too.

- Ohio State has victories against three teams (Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State) that are all likely to be ranked ahead of Alabama's best victory.

- The Buckeyes are Big Ten champions and selection committee protocol directs the committee to use championships won as something of a tiebreaker if teams are similar.

Cons

- The Buckeyes not only lost twice, but both loses were by double-digits, including a 31-point drubbing at Iowa (7-5).

- Did we mention that the Buckeyes lost 55-24 to Iowa?

Strength of schedule, according to Sagarin ratings.

Alabama, 54th toughest in Division I.

Ohio State, 42nd before playing Wisconsin.

The System

Last season Ohio State became the first team to make the playoff without winning its conference. This season the Buckeyes are trying to become the first team with two losses to get in. If Alabama gets in, it will be the first time two teams from the same conference get in. And while the SEC has typically been the best or close to the best conference in college football, this has not been a season in which it has stood clearly above the rest.

Ohio State got in last year without winning the Big Ten and the league champion, Penn State, did not. What is the committee's appetite for leaving two Power Five conferences out of the playoff (sorry, Pac-12)? It should not matter. The committee is charged with picking the best four teams. But can't help but wonder if it plays into the thought process.

GOING HOME A CHAMPION

All signs pointed in this direction so it was no surprise when, after Scott Frost was done leading Central Florida to the American Athletic Conference championship, he was announced as Nebraska's next coach.

The Knights are unbeaten and likely heading to the Peach Bowl as the highest-ranked champion from outside the Power Five conferences. No doubt some fans will wonder why UCF doesn't get a chance to play in the final four, but the schedule lacks big nonconference wins. It might not be fair, but unless the playoff expands it will always be a long shot for the teams outside the Power Five.

HUSKIES?

TCU's lose could open up a spot in the New Year's six for a team that has not been talked about much since the rankings started coming out. Washington was 13th last week, right behind Stanford and TCU, which both lost. Unless TCU (10-3) stays ahead or the committee reconsiders Notre Dame (9-3) the Huskies (10-2) could be headed to the Cotton Bowl.

PROJECTIONS

Here's how the New Year's Six could shake out.

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Alabama.

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Georgia.

Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Ohio State.

Peach Bowl: UCF vs. Auburn.

Cotton Bowl: Washington vs. Penn State

Orange Bowl: Miami vs. Wisconsin.

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December CFB Record Thru The Bowl Games: ( BASED ON 5 UNITS )

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

12/02/2017 9-11-0 45.00% -15.50
12/01/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00

Totals...........11 - 11...........50.00%......-5.50


BEST BETS:.......................ATS................... ....UNITS...........................O/U.................UNITS

12/02/2017......................5 - 7......................-13.50............................5 - 4................+3.00
12/01/2017......................1 - 0 ......................+5.00....................... ....1 - 0................+5.00

Totals...............................6 - 7.......................-8.50.............................6 - 4................+8.00

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4th Quarter Covers - Week 14
December 3, 2017

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the championship college football weekend in early December.

Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows.

USC (-3½) 31, Stanford 28: The Pac-12 championship spread bounced around from -3 to -4. The Trojans seemed to have a clear edge early with a 17-7 lead late in the second quarter and a dominant production edge but Stanford managed to complete a touchdown drive 34 seconds before halftime to trail by three. That remained the margin through three quarters with matching touchdowns before USC had the game’s only turnover. Stanford didn’t score directly after that fumble but it shifted the field position. The Cardinal eventually reached the red zone on the next possession but failed going for it on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard-line. USC seemingly put the game away going 99 yards to lead by 10 with just over four minutes remaining but Stanford connected on three deep acrobatic catches including two on 3rd-and-long plays while also managing to recover a botched snap. The Cardinal eventually hit the end zone on a great Kaden Smith catch for 28 yards with two minutes remaining. That score locked up the underdog cover in most scenarios as USC recovered the onside kick and conservatively tried to run down the clock. With 37 seconds to go USC faced 4th-and-2 from the Stanford 32-yard-line. There was certainly no need to attempt a long field goal and punting seemed to be the common choice but the Trojans ran a pass play with Josh Falo getting the first down and running for 15 yards, finishing one tackle short of breaking through to the end zone. The Cardinal again lost by just three to narrowly cover most spreads despite a 501-343 yardage edge for the Pac-12 champion Trojans.

Troy (-1) 32, Arkansas State 25: Troy led 24-13 halfway through the fourth quarter with a kickoff return touchdown and a 100-yard interception return touchdown offsetting an eventual 293-606 yardage deficit. Arkansas State had some late fight however with the Sun Belt title on the line. The Red Wolves completed a 93-yard touchdown drive in just over three minutes, trailing by five with 2:56 remaining after missing the 2-point-conversion. Arkansas State didn’t recover the on-side kick but used its timeouts and forced a quick punt getting the ball back with still well over two minutes remaining. The Red Wolves completed a big 3rd down play near midfield and then struck for a 39-yard touchdown pass to take a one-point lead, again missing on the conversion but it was enough to put Arkansas State in position to win and cover on the late week prices. Brandon Silvers and the Troy offense completed a big 4th down play en route to scoring on a 14-yard touchdown pass with 17 seconds to go to steal the win back while claiming a share of the Sun Belt title.

Florida Atlantic (-10½) 41, North Texas 17: The Owls dominated early and led 34-0 early in the third quarter but the Mean Green were briefly a threat to steal the cover, closing to 34-17 in the fourth quarter. Florida Atlantic converted 3rd-and-11 and 3rd-and-6 plays on the way to a late touchdown drive, aided by a face mask penalty to push the margin from 17 to 24 points to ensure the favorite cover.

UCF (-6½) 62, Memphis 55: The spread on this game was steady at 7 the majority of the week despite closing at 6½ at many outlets. The Knights took charge early with a 24-14 edge but then had three consecutive turnovers including interceptions at the one-yard-line and in the end zone as Memphis scored 17 points to take a 31-24 halftime lead. UCF again established control with a 48-34 edge with about 10 minutes to play after settling for a short field goal to go up by 14. Memphis broke a 66 yard run a few plays later and then forced the first punt of the game from the Knights. Memphis tied the game seven plays later and had the opportunity to win in regulation but missed on a long 51-yard field goal try. Both teams scored with ease in the first overtime. Central Florida took three plays to post seven in the second overtime and the struggling defense sealed the perfect campaign with an interception two plays after Memphis had converted a huge 4th-and-7 play. Most left with a push and the ‘over’ on one of the higher totals in college football history was easily cleared.

Toledo (-20½) 45, Akron 28: The Rockets claimed the MAC title with a 38-0 edge in the third quarter but the Zips clawed back for a backdoor cover. Akron scored touchdowns surrounding the shift to the fourth quarter but Toledo scored on one play to put the margin back to 31 points. Akron scored with six minutes to go and again with 20 seconds to go to lose by only 17.

Ohio State (-3½) 27, Wisconsin 21: The Big Ten championship proved to be the most exciting of Saturday’s four power five championship games and the spread results were mixed. Ohio State led 21-10 at the half with Wisconsin’s offense completely shut down but getting a pick-6 and a field goal off a fumble to stay in the game. The Badgers played better defense in the second half and managed to climb to within three points after an early fourth quarter score and a successful two-point conversion that came after a lengthy delay to repair the field in Indianapolis. The Buckeyes reached the red zone and opted to go for it on 4th-and-1 at the 13-yard-line. J.T. Barrett was initially stuffed behind the line of scrimmage but escaped to narrowly get the needed distance. A few plays later the Buckeyes opted to go the conservative route and kicked a 20-yard field goal on 4th-and-1 at the 3-yard-line for a six-point advantage, even with a common spread on the game though lines from 6½ to 3½ proved possible. After both teams punted Wisconsin had the ball back with nearly three minutes to play but were burned by a costly holding penalty and eventually wound up intercepted on 4th-and-20 as six points remained the final margin.

Florida State (-25½) 42, UL-Monroe 10: Jimbo Fisher left the Seminoles before this game but the impact on the massive spread was minimal. UL-Monroe scored 10 points in the third quarter to make it a game, trailing only 21-10. Florida State would close the game with three more touchdowns however to sneak by the heavy favorite spread while keeping the nation’s longest bowl streak alive.

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College Playoff Primer
December 3, 2017

The College Football Playoff is set with the semifinals to be played on New Year’s Day. No. 1 seed Clemson will take on fourth-seeded Alabama at the Sugar Bowl in a rematch of the last two games played in the CFP finals.

The other semifinal will feature second-seeded Oklahoma, the winner of the Big 12 Championship Game, against No. 3 Georgia, which exacted revenge on Auburn with Saturday’s 28-7 win as a two-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Alabama as the +200 ‘chalk’ to win the CFP finals. Clemson was given +220 odds, followed by Oklahoma (+275) and Georgia (+350, risk $100 to win $350).

The Westgate opened Oklahoma as a 2.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. UGA, and sent out Alabama as a one-point favorite over Clemson. South Point opened the Sooners at two and Alabama-Clemson at pick ‘em. I made both OU and Clemson three-point favorites.

As of 4:00 p.m. Eastern, most Vegas shops had Lincoln Riley’s squad listed as a 1.5-point favorite, but most offshores had OU favored by one point. The Mirage and a few offshore spots had the game at pick ‘em.

In fact, the Mirage also had Alabama-Clemson at pick ‘em, but most other books had the Crimson Tide favored by 1.5 points.

Alabama beat Clemson by a 45-40 count in the CFP finals two seasons ago, but the Tigers garnered a backdoor cover as 6.5-point underdogs on a Deshaun Watson TD pass with 12 seconds remaining. Dabo Swinney’s team avenged that defeat with last year’s 35-31 win in the finals as (again) a 6.5-point underdog thanks to another last-second TD pass from Watson, setting up a rubber match of sorts in this year’s semifinals at the Superdome in New Orleans. This game will kick at 8:45 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

OU and UGA will collide at 5:00 p.m. Eastern in Pasadena. The Sooners have won eight consecutive games, going 5-1 against the spread in their last six outings. They’ve been single-digit ‘chalk’ three times, producing a 3-0 straight-up record and a 2-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, Georgia won outright by a 20-19 count at Notre Dame in its lone games as an underdog (+5.5).

UGA is ranked fourth in the nation in total defense, second at defending the pass, 12th in run defense and fourth in scoring ‘D,’ limiting foes to 13.2 points per game. The Bulldogs have won three in a row both SU and ATS since suffering their lone loss, a 40-17 defeat at Auburn.

Oklahoma is No. 1 in the country in total offense, third in passing yards and fourth in scoring with a 44.9 PPG average. Baker Mayfield has completed 71.0 percent of his passes for 4,340 yards with a 41/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Although the injury report has Georgia RB Sony Michel listed as ‘questionable’ due to a knee injury sustained vs. Auburn, second-year head coach Kirby Smart told the media Sunday, “Everything looks good. A little bit of soreness. He should be good to go.” Michel has rushed for 948 yards and 13 TDs while averaging 7.2 yards per carry.

On New Year’s Day at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, Auburn will take on unbeaten UCF. Scott Frost was in Lincoln today (12/3/17) to greet his new Nebraska team, but he will stay on to coach the Knights in the postseason. As for AU’s Gus Malzahn, Arkansas was expecting an answer from him at some point today as to whether or not he would leave the Tigers to take a lucrative deal with the Razorbacks, who hired him from Springdale High School (in Arkansas) as their offensive coordinator more than a decade ago.

One offshore released Auburn as an 8.5-point favorite.

There are two other games on New Year’s Day: Michigan vs. South Carolina at the Outback Bowl in Tampa, in addition to LSU vs. Notre Dame at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando. The Fighting Irish defeated LSU 31-28 at the 2014 Music City Bowl to avenge a blowout loss at the Sugar Bowl during Charlie Weis’s tenure when Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell were the starting QBs.

On Dec. 30 at the Taxslayer Bowl in Jacksonville, Mississippi State and Louisville will collide. In what I have found to be a surprise, it appears that there hasn’t been that much interest from other schools in Bobby Petrino, so at this point it looks like he’ll be still at U of L going into 2018 (although that obviously could change). The Bulldogs won’t have star QB Nick Fitzgerald (lower-leg injury) or head coach Dan Mullen, who is busy on the recruiting trail for his new team, the Florida Gators. RBs coach and special-teams coordinator Greg Knox will serve as MSU’s interim head coach.

Also on Dec. 30, Iowa State will play a true road game against Memphis at the Liberty Bowl. The Tigers lost an instant classic in the AAC Championship Game, coming up on the wrong end of a 62-55 double-overtime thriller at UCF. If Malzahn doesn’t go to Arkansas, most speculation points to Washington State’s Mike Leach or Memphis coach Mike Norvell being the Razorbacks’ next targets.

In the Orange Bowl, Wisconsin will also play a true road game at Miami. The Badgers lost a 27-21 decision to Ohio St. at the Big Ten Championship Game, while Miami got smashed by Clemson in Charlotte at the ACC Championship Game.

A few offshore books had Wisconsin installed as a six-point favorite vs. the Hurricanes.

Washington and Penn State will square off at the Fiesta Bowl. One offshore had the Huskies listed as six-point 'chalk.'

Ohio State will face Southern California at the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 29.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Georgia LB Natrez Patrick was arrested early Sunday morning in Barrow County outside of Atlanta on a misdemeanor marijuana possession charge. Patrick, who served a four-game suspension earlier this season, has 35 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and three QB hurries in nine games this year. UGA had yet to comment on the matter when this story was filed late Sunday afternoon.

-- In the three-year history of the CFP, underdogs have produced a 6-3 spread record with five outright victories.

-- Clemson owns a 4-0 spread record with three outright wins in its two CFP appearances.

-- Washington star WR and special-teams phenom Dante Pettis (leg) is 'questionable' vs. PSU.

-- A CBSSports.com report on Sunday indicated that Arkansas made an offer to Gus Malzahn worth about $50 million and an average of $7.1 million per year. He made a $4.75 million at Auburn this season. We’ll see if AU steps up with an extension offer.

-- According to a Lafayette Daily Advertiser report from Tim Buckley on Sunday, Louisiana (formerly known as UL-Lafayette) has fired Mark Hudspeth after seven seasons. Hudspeth had the Ragin’ Cajuns rolling early in his tenure, guiding them to four consecutive 9-4 seasons that were capped by wins at the New Orleans Bowl. Louisiana finished 4-8 in 2015 and 6-7 in ’16 when it lost 28-21 to Southern Miss at the New Orleans Bowl. The Ragin’ Cajuns finished 5-7 this year.