The Bum's NFL Playoff Best Bets-Trends-Stats-News !

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at DAL 04:40 PM

GB +5.0

U 52.0

PIT at KC 08:20 PM

PIT +2.5

U 44.5

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack


Random NFL coaches’ records on replay challenges:


— Jack Del Rio, Jax/Oak— 77 of 103, 74.8%


— Mike Mularkey, Buff/Jax/Tenn— 29 of 39, 74.4%


— Jay Gruden, Wash— 17 of 23, 73.9%


— John Fox, Car/Den/Chi— 125 of 170, 73.5%


— Bill O’Brien, Hst— 19 of 26, 73.1%


— Mike Zimmer, Minn— 15 of 21, 71.4%


No current NFL head coach has less than a 60% success rate in replay challenges.


**********


Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings……..

13) Alex Rodriguez is going to have his own TV show on CNBC, dealing with athletes who have had financial problems in their post-playing days. The show will match athletes with “money-savvy mentors” who will advise the athletes on way to upgrade their financial situations.


12) One growing trend in college basketball; more and more teams are playing only 7-8 guys in a game, some only six. Would expect to see a rule change next year, where it’ll take six fouls to foul out, rather than five fouls.


11) Creighton guard Mo Watson tore his ACL Monday at Xavier, his college career is over. Very sad for the young man and his team; he is the Bluejays’ best player.


10) This is tremendous; 25 moving companies based in San Diego banded together and refuse to help the Chargers move north to Los Angeles.


Chargers kept Ken Whisenhunt as OC, a good move.


9) ESPN’s Sean McDonough did his first basketball telecast of the season Monday night in Chapel Hill; he seemed positively giddy to be working with Jay Bilas, after working with Jon Gruden on Monday Night Football all season. Draw your own conclusions.


8) Oklahoma City Thunder has nine games left in January; eight of them are on the road. Thunder will fly over 14,000 miles in January alone.


7) Happy birthday to the great Betty White, who turned 95 on Tuesday.


Also congrats to Roy Williams on his 800th win Monday night.


6) Phillies signed OF Michael Saunders to a 1-year deal; the oft-injured Saunders is 30, has played 130+ games in only three seasons, but he did hit 24 HR’s for Toronto LY.


5) Two guys in Las Vegas pooled $300 and money-lined the Packers in Week 12, and let it ride ever since. Their $300 investment now is worth $28,213.60 and if Green Bay wins on Sunday, it’ll be worth $76,176.70.


These guys tried the same thing LY (with two other friends) but the Cowboys lost the first week of the wager. I’m guessing the two friends who didn’t re-up this year are kicking themselves.


One of the two guys played basketball for Seth Greenberg at Long Beach State and later was an assistant coach for Greenberg, I think at South Florida.


4) Quinnipiac is 4-4 in the MAAC, an ordinary team, but they’ve covered their last seven MAAC games, making them a great team for those who wager on the Bobcats.


3) Chris Paul tore ligaments in his thumb Monday night, is out 6-8 weeks.


2) Houston Texans fired their offensive coordinator two days after their loss in Foxboro; they said “they mutually parted ways” which means they paid off his contract and told him to take a hike.


1— Interesting discussion on the Australian Open late Monday night, on how tennis players on the rise can actually play too much, if they advance further than expected in tournaments.


Marginal players play in more events, but if they go deep into the tournaments, it reduces their down time between events, increasing their risk of injury and making conditioning a lot more important. As a player improves, he/she actually reduce the number of events they play in.

[StarDust Bum]

OLR - Title Games
January 16, 2017

Next Sunday’s conference championship games feature two of the NFL’s most public teams as underdogs, which may create betting value on the favorites. But with an historically-high total in the NFC title tilt, let’s start there with our opening line report.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook hung 58.5 as its original over/under for Packers at Falcons, but that number didn’t last long, as the oddsmakers moved along with the market. That meant making an already huge total ever larger.

“We put up 58.5, thinking that probably would be high, and then we saw it come a little bit higher (offshore) and move in that direction, so we said, ‘we’ll go with it,’” Westgate manager Ed Salmons said Sunday night. “I mean, there are no numbers for these Packers-Falcons game to keep them ‘under.’ The first time they played (Oct. 30 in Atlanta) it was 33-32 (Falcons).”

The Falcons, in fact, are 14-2-1 to the ‘over’ this season, including Saturday’s 36-20 win against Seattle in the divisional round that flew ‘over’ the 51.5. The ‘over’ has cashed in 10 of the Packers’ last 12 games, including the most recent six.

Totals as large as next Sunday’s number are seldom seen in the league. There are only a few in history that have been higher.

-- According to Pro Football Reference, the highest-ever total for an NFL playoff game was 60 for the Lions at Saints in 2012. It went ‘over’ in New Orleans’ 45-28 win.

-- The highest total for any game in NFL history is 63 for the Rams-49ers in 2000. That game stayed ‘under’ with the Rams winning 34-24.

-- A 31-30 win by the Raiders over the Chiefs on Christmas Day in 2004 went over the total of 60.

The Packers-Falcons over/under price is “warranted based on what you see,” Salmons said. “Atlanta plays a high-tempo game and with Green Bay you’ve got all the ingredients to be a crazy high-scoring game.”

Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, had a different take. He agreed with the notion that the number is artificially high because of anticipated ‘over’ money from the public.

“I don’t necessarily think it’s justified,” Simbal said of the lofty total. “We were saying today, ‘What fan that’s been betting all these games and winning is going to bet ‘under’ in that game?’ They’re going to bet ‘over’ or they’re not going to bet it. The Falcons score 30 points a game, so they’re not going to bet the ‘under’. So we figured we’d open it pretty high, but the sharps thought it was too high.”

CG opened the total 60 and when the book moved with the market to 61 , respected money showed up on the ‘under’, prompting a move back in the other direction.

“When we got to 61, they bet it ‘under’ and they were pretty sizable bets, and that’s why we moved it down to 59.5,” Simbal said.

While public bettors tend to bet ‘over’, they get gun shy with totals this high, according to Salmons. But, with the way these playoffs are going, they may not be able to resist.

“The rule of thumb in the past is the public will back away from favorites in the NFL when they’re higher than 14 (or when totals get to a certain threshold), and we’ve never had a total this high that I can remember in a playoff game. But they were laying the Patriots (Saturday night vs. the Texans) like 16.5 was 6.5, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they bet it ‘over’. It wouldn’t surprise me if it moved up.”

By Monday morning, CG was dealing 59.5 for the total, while the Westgate was at 60 and Stations Casinos was at the high end of the market at 61.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 59.5), Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET

The Westgate on Sunday night opened Atlanta -4 vs. Green Bay and moved to -4.5 after the first bet came on the favorite. The shop then adjusted with the market up to -5.5, but settled back to -4 later in the evening, Salmons said.

CG opened -4 and stood pat, booking two-way action at that price.

The Falcons went off at -6.5 vs. the Seahawks in Saturday night’s divisional playoff game, making the conference championship line against the Packers feel light. Thank the public nature of the Packers for that. According to CG’s power ratings, the Falcons are a theoretical 5.8-point favorite in this spot. The book went with a lower number because it is anticipating the public backing underdog Green Bay on the money line, Simbal said.

“I think you’re going to end up getting people who want to play Green Bay playing the money line at (about) +160,” he added. “I don’t think they’ll bother taking the 4 very much.”

Salmons said of public sentiment influencing this line, “If you reversed the team names and you made the Packers the Falcons and the Falcons the Packers, the line would probably be 7 or 7.5.”

Still, wiseguys weren’t interested early in the Falcons at -4, according to Simbal.

Green Bay cashed as the 3-point underdog in the Oct. 30 meeting between these teams, the aforementioned 33-32 win by Atlanta.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 51), Sunday, 6:35 p.m. ET

At CG Technology, the Patriots opened -5.5 vs. the Steelers in the AFC championship game, a number cheap enough to draw early sharp action on the favorite. The book took at a $4,000 bet and two $3,000 bets on New England on Sunday night, while only smaller, $200-type wagers came in on the dog.

According to CG’s power ratings, New England should be -6.5 or -7 at home vs. Pitt, Simbal said.

This game could be the rare sharps vs. public spot where the sharps are laying the points and the public is backing the dog.

“I figure the public to be on Pittsburgh here,” Simbal said. “They’re going to be on both dogs I think, money line specifically. We’re trying to hold back (on moving the line higher) because of that.”

But Salmons, whose shops opened New England -4.5 and moved with the market to -5.5, wouldn’t be surprised to see this spread grow to -6.5.

“It’s not going to take much (for that to happen),” he said. “It’s more than a field goal and less than a touchdown.”

He added, “I think we’ll get really good two-way action on this game. Next to Green Bay, Pittsburgh as an underdog is very popular.”

While these teams met Oct. 23, it’s a tough comparison to make, since Landry Jones was in for an injured Ben Roethlisberger. For what it’s worth, the Pats covered as 7.5-point road favorites in a 27-16 win but were outgained by the Steelers, 375-362.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC Championship Notes
January 15, 2017

NFC Championship (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)
Green Bay (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) at Atlanta (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS)

Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Atlanta -4 and the number jumped as high as 5 ½ but settled back down to the opener. The total was sent out at 58 ½ and moved up quickly before finally settling between 60 and 61. CRIS, a major offshore betting shop, opened Atlanta -5 with a total of 60 1/2. As of late Sunday, they’re holding the Falcons -4 (-115) with a total of 60.

Green Bay Road Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS
Atlanta Home Record: 6-3 SU, 6-4 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in Week 8 from Atlanta and the Falcons came away with a 33-32 decision but failed to cover as three-point home favorites. Green Bay led 24-19 at halftime and held a 32-26 lead late in the fourth quarter before Atlanta answered with a 75-yard game-winning touchdown drive that ended with an 11-yard passing score from quarterback Matt Ryan. There were no turnovers in the game that saw seven passing touchdowns, three from Ryan and four from Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers.

Despite losing the first regular season meeting, Rodgers has gone 4-2 in his career versus the Falcons and that includes a 48-21 victory in the 2010 playoffs at Atlanta when he completed 31-of-36 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan is 3-3 in his career against Green Bay, one of the wins coming against a Packers team that didn’t have Rodgers in the lineup.

Playoff Notes: Including last week’s 34-31 win over Dallas, the Packers are now 10-6 in the playoffs with Rodgers at QB. He’s gone 6-4 in games away from home in the postseason and three of the losses came in overtime. Atlanta improved to 2-4 in the postseason with Ryan under center after the team defeated Seattle 36-20 last Saturday in the Divisional Playoff round. While the quarterback has taken some heat in his career, the four playoff losses came against opponents that went onto the Super Bowl and two of them captured the title with one of them being Green Bay in the 2010 edition.

Total Notes: According to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence and his archives, the highest NFL postseason total came in 2012 when New Orleans defeated Detroit 45-28 and the game went 'over' (59.5). While this will likely go down as the highest postseason total you’ll ever see, it’s deserving of the number and it’s hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this spot. Atlanta has watched the ‘over’ go 9-0 at the Georgia Dome this season behind the league’s top scoring offense at 33.9 points per game. Green Bay has watched the ‘over’ go 7-2 on the road and it enters this game on a 6-0 run to the high side behind an offense averaging 34.8 PPG in its last six.

The Falcons have seen the 'over' go 5-1 in six playoff games with Ryan at quarterback, which includes a 4-0 mark in Atlanta. The offense averaged 28.5 PPG in those games. Green Bay has seen the 'over' go 7-3 in 10 road playoff games with Rodgers at QB and the club has never been held under 20 points during this span.

NFC Championship Notes: The favorite has gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in the last four NFC title games. Green Bay is 1-1 in its last two trips to the title game, losing in 2014 at Seattle and defeating Chicago in the 2010 playoffs. The Falcons made a trip to the 2012 NFC Championship and dropped a 28-24 decision to San Francisco from the Georgia Dome. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four NFC title games.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP (1970-2015)

Year Matchup Line Score ATS Result

2015-16 Arizona at Carolina Carolina (-3) (47) Carolina 49 Arizona 15 Favorite-Over

2014-15 Green Bay at Seattle Seattle -8.5 (45) Seattle 28 Green Bay 22 (OT) Underdog-Over

2013-14 San Francisco at Seattle Seattle -3.5 (40.5) Seattle 23 San Francisco 17 Favorite-Under

2012-13 San Francisco at Atlanta San Francisco -3.5 (48) San Francisco 28 Atlanta 24 Favorite-Over

2011-12 N.Y. Giants at San Francisco San Francisco -2 (40.5) N.Y. Giants 20 San Francisco 17 (OT) Underdog-Under

2010-11 Green Bay at Chicago Green Bay -3.5 (42) Green Bay 21 Chicago 14 Favorite-Under

2009-10 Minnesota at New Orleans New Orleans -4 (54) New Orleans 31 Minnesota 28 (OT) Underdog-Over

2008-09 Philadelphia at Arizona Philadelphia -3.5 (47) Arizona 32 Philadelphia 25 Underdog-Over

2007-08 N.Y. Giants at Green Bay Green Bay -8 (41) N.Y. Giants 23 Green Bay 20 (OT) Underdog-Over

2006-07 New Orleans at Chicago Chicago -2.5 (42.5) Chicago 34 New Orleans 14 Favorite-Over

2005-06 Carolina at Seattle Seattle -3.5 (43.5) Seattle 34 Carolina 14 Favorite-Over

2004-05 Atlanta at Philadelphia Philadelphia -5.5 (37.5) Philadelphia 27 Atlanta 10 Favorite-Under

2003-04 Carolina at Philadelphia Philadelphia -4 (36.5) Carolina 14 Philadelphia 3 Underdog-Under

2002-03 Tampa Bay at Philadelphia Philadelphia -4 (34) Tampa Bay 27 Philadelphia 10 Underdog-Under

2001-02 Philadelphia at St. Louis St. Louis -10.5 (49) St. Louis 29 Philadelphia 24 Underdog-Over

2000-01 Minnesota at N.Y. Giants N.Y. Giants -2.5 (42) N.Y. Giants 41 Minnesota Favorite-Under

1999-00 Tampa Bay at St. Louis St. Louis -14.5 (44) St. Louis 11 Tampa Bay 6 Underdog-Under

1998-99 Atlanta at Minnesota Minnesota -10.5 (55) Atlanta 30 Minnesota 27 (OT) Underdog-Over

1997-98 Green Bay at San Francisco Green Bay -2.5 (44) Green Bay 23 San Francisco 10 Favorite-Under

1996-97 Carolina at Green Bay Green Bay -12.5 (38) Green Bay 30 Carolina 13 Favorite-Over

1995-96 Green Bay at Dallas Dallas -8.5 (50) Dallas 38 Green Bay 27 Favorite-Over

1994-95 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -7.5 (48) San Francisco 38 Dallas 28 Favorite-Over

1993-94 San Francisco at Dallas Dallas -3 (47.5) Dallas 38 San Francisco 21 Favorite-Over

1992-93 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -4 (37) Dallas 30 San Francisco 20 Underdog-Over

1991-92 Detroit at Washington Washington -13 (43) Washington 41 Detroit 10 Favorite-Over

1990-91 N.Y. Giants at San Francisco San Francisco -8 (37) N.Y. Giants 15 San Francisco 10 Underdog-Under

1989-90 L.A. Rams at San Francisco San Francisco -7 (46) San Francisco 30 L.A. Rams 3 Favorite-Under

1988-89 San Francisco at Chicago Chicago -1 (34.5) San Francisco 28 Chicago 3 Underdog-Under

1987-88 Minnesota at Washington Washington -3.5 (45) Washington 17 Minnesota 10 Favorite-Under

1986-87 Washington at N.Y. Giants N.Y. Giants -7.5 N.Y. Giants 17 Washington 0 Favorite

1985-86 L.A. Rams at Chicago Chicago -10.5 Chicago 24 L.A. Rams 0 Favorite

1984-85 Chicago at San Francisco San Francisco -9 San Francisco 23 Chicago 0 Favorite

1983-84 San Francisco at Washington Washington -10.5 Washington 24 San Francisco 21 Underdog

1982-83 Dallas at Washington Dallas -2 Washington 31 Dallas 17 Underdog

1981-82 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -3 San Francisco 28 Dallas 27 Underdog

1980-81 Dallas at Philadelphia Dallas -1 Philadelphia 20 Dallas 7 Underdog

1979-80 L.A. Rams at Tampa Bay L.A. Rams -3.5 L.A. Rams 9 Tampa Bay 0 Favorite

1978-79 Dallas at L.A. Rams Dallas -3.5 Dallas 28 L.A. Rams 0 Favorite

1977-78 Minnesota at Dallas Dallas -11.5 Dallas 23 Minnesota 6 Favorite

1976-77 L.A. Rams at Minnesota Minnesota -4.5 Minnesota 24 L.A. Rams 13 Favorite

1975-76 Dallas at L.A. Rams L.A. Rams -6 Dallas 37 L.A. Rams 7 Underdog

1974-75 L.A. Rams at Minnesota Minnesota -4 Minnesota 14 L.A. Rams 10 Push

1973-74 Minnesota at Dallas Dallas -1 Minnesota 27 Dallas 10 Underdog

1972-73 Dallas at Washington Washington -3 Washington 26 Dallas 3 Favorite

1971-72 San Francisco at Dallas Dallas -7.5 Dallas 14 San Francisco 3 Favorite

1970-71 Dallas at San Francisco San Francisco -4 Dallas 17 San Francisco 10 Underdog

[StarDust Bum]

AFC Championship Notes
January 16, 2017

AFC Championship (CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET)
Pittsburgh (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) at New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS)

Line Movement: The MGM Mirage Sportsbook opened New England at 5 1/2 with a total sent out at 50 1/2. Sportsbook,ag, a major offshore betting shop, opened New England -6 with a total of 50 1/2. As of late Sunday, they’re holding the Patriots -6 (-110) with a total of 50 1/2, with the Steelers +215 on the moneyline.

Pittsburgh Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
New England Home Record: 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Steelers host the Patriots back in Week 7, but it's difficult to glean much from that result. The Patriots picked up a 27-16 victory, but they also had the luxury of facing the Steelers without starting QB Ben Roethlisberger, as he missed that game due to a knee injury. In addition, Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski starred in that game with 93 yards and a touchdown, but he is done for the season.

As far as the guys who did play, Patriots QB Tom Brady threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns, RB Le'Veon Bell totalted 149 yards from scrimmage on 31 total touches and WR Antonio Brown posted a game-high 106 yards. The game featured two lost fumbles by the Patriots, and New England was able to pick off backup QB Landry Jones once. There were also zero sacks by both sides.

The underdog is 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings between these teams, with the Steelers going 4-11 ATS in the past 15 in the series.

These teams will meet in the AFC Championship Game for the third time, and the first time since 2004. It's also the first meeting at Gillette Stadium between the two combatants in a title game. New England won both the 2001 and 2004 AFC Championship Games against Pittsburgh, and they're 3-1 in four all-time postseason meetings against the Steelers.

Brady owns a 9-2 career record against the Steelers, and he has thrown for 3,148 yards, 26 touchdowns and just three interceptions, and his passer rating against the Steelers is higher than against any other opponent (min. five starts). Over his past six starts against Pittsburgh he has a passer rating in excess of 100, and the last time the Steelers picked him off in a game came way back in 2005. Brady also owns a 5-1 record against head coach Mike Tomlin, posting 19 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in those six outings. One of the reasons for Brady's success has been tremendous pass protection, as the Steelers have just eight sacks in their past six meetings.

Playoff Notes: The Steelers stomped the Miami Dolphins in the Wild Card on Jan. 8 by a 30-12 score, covering an 11-point number at home. They also posted an 18-16 road victory against the Kansas City Chiefs, as PK Chris Boswell set an NFL postseason record with six field goals. The 'under' has connected in each of their two playoff games so far. Roethlisberger is 0-1 in his career against the Patriots in the playoffs, but he owns a 13-6 record as a starter in the postseason, including 5-2 on the road. The Steelers haven't been terribly success in recent seasons, however, going just 3-4 SU in their past seven playoff outings. Pittsburgh is also averaging just 19.8 PPG over their past five playoff games while yielding 22.4 PPG over their past seven postseason appearances.

The Steelers are 2-0-2 ATS in their past four playoff games, but just 1-3-2 ATS in their past six on the road in the postseason. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their past five playoff games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five postseason games at Gillette Stadium, but they're 1-6 ATS in their past seven in the AFC Championship Game.

Total Notes: The 'under' was 5-2 in the final seven regular season games for the Patriots, and 4-4 in eight regular season home games. However, the 'over' hit in their 34-16 Divisional Round win over the Texans, as they covered a 16-point number. The 'over' is 6-1 in New England's past seven home games, with an 'under' result last taking place Jan. 20, 2013 against Baltimore. It has been since Jan. 20, 2008, when the 'under' cashed in a New England home playoff game against an opponent other than the Ravens.

The 'under' is 7-1 in Pittsburgh's past eight games on the road including the postseason and regular season. The 'under' is also 4-0-1 in Pittsburgh's past five playoff appearances, including 3-0 in their past three on the road.

AFC Championship Notes: The favorite is 5-3 ATS over the past eight AFC title games, although the underdog is 3-2 ATS over the past five. The 'under' has hit in five in a row to follow up a 6-1 run of 'over' results. New England is just 1-2 SU/ATS in its past three AFC Championship Games at home, and 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS over the past five title game appearances overall. Pittsburgh returns to the game for the first time since 2011 when they topped the N.Y. Jets, also cashing as favorites. Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU/ATS in its past three trips to the AFC title game.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP (1970-2015)

2015-16 New England at Denver New England -3 (45) Denver 20 New England 18 Underdog-Under

2014-15 Indianapolis at New England New England -7 (52.5) New England 45 Indianapolis 7 Favorite-Under

2013-14 New England at Denver Denver -5 (57) Denver 26 New England 16 Favorite-Under

2012-13 Baltimore at New England New England -8 (49.5) Baltimore 28 New England 13 Underdog-Under

2011-12 Baltimore at New England New England -7 (49) New England 23 Baltimore 20 Underdog-Under

2010-11 N.Y. Jets at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -4 (38) Pittsburgh 24 N.Y. Jets 19 Favorite-Over

2009-10 N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis Indianapolis -8 (40) Indianapolis 30 N.Y. Jets 17 Favorite-Over

2008-09 Baltimore at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -6 (35) Pittsburgh 23 Baltimore 14 Favorite-Over

2007-08 San Diego at New England New England -14 (48) New England 21 San Diego 12 Underdog-Under

2006-07 New England at Indianapolis Indianapolis -3.5 (47) Indianapolis 38 New England 34 Favorite-Over

2005-06 Pittsburgh at Denver Denver -3 (41) Pittsburgh 34 Denver 17 Underdog-Over

2004-05 New England at Pittsburgh New England -3 (35) New England 41 Pittsburgh 27 Favorite-Over

2003-04 Indianapolis at New England New England -3 (43) New England 24 Indianapolis 14 Favorite-Under

2002-03 Tennessee at Oakland Oakland -8 (47) Oakland 41 Tennessee 24 Favorite-Over

2001-02 New England at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -10 (37) New England 24 Pittsburgh 17 Underdog-Over

2000-01 Baltimore at Oakland Oakland -6 (36.5) Baltimore 16 Oakland 3 Underdog-Under

1999-00 Tennessee at Jacksonville Jacksonville -7 (40.5) Tennessee 33 Jacksonville 14 Underdog-Over

1998-99 N.Y. Jets at Denver Denver -9 (51.5) Denver 23 N.Y. Jets 10 Favorite-Under

1997-98 Denver at Pittsburgh Denver -2.5 (41) Denver 24 Pittsburgh 21 Favorite-Over

1996-97 Jacksonville at New England New England -7 (44) New England 20 Jacksonville 6 Favorite-Under

1995-96 Indianapolis at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -12 (41) Pittsburgh 20 Indianapolis 16 Underdog-Under

1994-95 San Diego at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -9 (35) San Diego 17 Pittsburgh 13 Underdog-Under

1993-94 Kansas City at Buffalo Buffalo -3 (38) Buffalo 30 Kansas City 13 Favorite-Under

1992-93 Buffalo at Miami Buffalo -2 (41) Buffalo 29 Miami 10 Favorite-Under

1991-92 Denver at Buffalo Buffalo -11 (45) Buffalo 10 Denver 7 Underdog-Under

1990-91 L.A. Raiders at Buffalo Buffalo -7 (37) Buffalo 51 L.A. Raiders 3 Favorite-Over

1989-90 Cleveland at Denver Denver -3.5 (40) Denver 37 Cleveland 21 Favorite-Over

1988-89 Buffalo at Cincinnati Cincinnati -4 (40.5) Cincinnati 21 Buffalo 10 Favorite-Under

1987-88 Cleveland at Denver Denver -2.5 (44.5) Denver 38 Cleveland 33 Favorite-Over

1986-87 Denver at Cleveland Cleveland -3 (38) Denver 23 Cleveland 20 Underdog-Over

1985-86 New England at Miami Miami -5.5 New England 31 Miami 14 Underdog

1984-85 Pittsburgh at Miami Miami -9.5 Miami 45 Pittsburgh 28 Favorite

1983-84 Seattle at L.A. Raiders L.A. Raiders -7.5 L.A. Raiders 30 Seattle 14 Favorite

1982-83 N.Y. Jets at Miami Miami -2 Miami 14 N.Y. Jets 0 Favorite

1981-82 San Diego at Cincinnati Cincinnati -4.5 Cincinnati 27 San Diego 7 Favorite

1980-81 Oakland at San Diego Oakland +4 Oakland 34 San Diego 27 Underdog

1979-80 Houston at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -9.5 Pittsburgh 27 Houston 13 Favorite

1978-79 Houston at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -7 Pittsburgh 34 Houston 7 Favorite

1977-78 Oakland at Denver Denver -3.5 Denver 20 Oakland 17 Underdog

1976-77 Pittsburgh at Oakland Pittsburgh -4.5 Oakland 24 Pittsburgh 7 Underdog

1975-76 Oakland at Pittsburgh Pittsburgh -6 Pittsburgh 16 Oakland 10 Push

1974-75 Pittsburgh at Oakland Oakland -5.5 Pittsburgh 24 Oakland 13 Underdog

1973-74 Oakland at Miami Miami -6.5 Miami 27 Oakland 10 Favorite

1972-73 Miami at Pittsburgh Miami -2.5 Miami 21 Pittsburgh 17 Favorite

1971-72 Baltimore at Miami Miami -1.5 Miami 21 Baltimore 0 Favorite

1970-71 Oakland at Baltimore Oakland -1 Baltimroe 27 Oakland 17 Underdog

[StarDust Bum]

Struggles in L.A.
January 16, 2017

L.A. Story Likely To Have Bad Ending In 2017

As recently as Jan. 12, 2016, the second-most populous city in America, Los Angeles, had exactly zero NFL teams and no one in the City of Angels really seemed to care much about that fact. Of course, the Rams moved from St. Louis to L.A. for last season and as of last week, they were joined by the former San Diego Chargers. Get ready for some bad football, Angelinos. The Rams and Chargers combined for nine wins this past regular season. That's as many as the Tennessee Titans.

Both clubs will have new coaches for 2017. What's interesting is that star power is necessary in Los Angeles to draw the fickle fans' attention, yet the teams hired anonymous coaches. At the end of the regular season, BetOnline posted odds on the next Rams coach. Former Raiders and Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden, the current ESPN "Monday Night Football" analyst, was the +150 favorite. The Rams reportedly did talk to Gruden, but he wasn't interested in leaving the booth.

Other top favorites were Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (+400) and Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan (+600). Not huge names nationally but rising stars in the NFL. So, whom did the Rams settle on? Washington Redskins offensive coordinator Sean McVay. At age 30, he becomes the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. You must go back to the Cleveland Rams hiring Art "Pappy" in 1938 at 27 years old to find one younger.

McVay joined the Redskins in 2010, progressing from assistant tight ends coach to offensive coordinator by 2014. Washington did average a solid 371.9 yards in the past three years under McVay and Kirk Cousins went from fourth-round backup to an upper-echelon QB. Then again, the Washington offense flopped in Week 17 in a 19-10 home loss to the Giants when a victory would have given the Redskins a wild-card spot. The thinking is that McVay can fix quarterback Jared Goff, the 2016 No. 1 overall pick who looked lost in his seven games this past season with a horrid rating of 63.6. The Rams offense was the worst in the NFL.

On early 2017 NFL futures odds, the Rams are 50/1 to win the NFC title. That's clearly a pipe dream and recent history says that McVay won't last too long. Four other NFL coaches born since World War II have taken top jobs while younger than 34 and none won reached 20 wins before being fired. McDaniels was 11-17 in his 2009-10 stint with the Broncos; Raheem Morris was 17-31 from 2009-11 with the Buccaneers; Lane Kiffin was 5-15 from 2007-08 with the Raiders; and David Shula 19-52 from 1992-96 with the Bengals.

The Chargers will not join the Rams in the L.A. Memorial Coliseum the next two seasons until the Rams' financed new stadium in Inglewood is ready to house both. Instead, the Chargers will play at the 30,000-seat StubHub Center, home of Major League Soccer's L.A. Galaxy. That will be by far the smallest stadium in the NFL, which makes you wonder how much of a home-field advantage a nomadic team would have in a temporary facility. The Chargers also play in the NFL's toughest division, the AFC West, and they will be projected to finish last again.

At least the Bolts have a good offense under QB Philip Rivers and they are 30/1 on NFL futures to win the AFC title next season. Their new head coach is former Bills offensive coordinator/interim coach Anthony Lynn. A peculiar move considering the Bills didn't hire Lynn as their full-time guy (they went with Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott), Lynn has never been a head coach at any level, he started 2016 as just a running backs coach, and the Chargers really need help on defense much more than offense. The fired Mike McCoy was also an offensive guy. Lynn is considered a run-first coach and will retain Chargers offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt.

The new L.A. stadium hosts the Super Bowl in 2021. Perhaps the Rams and/or Chargers will be good enough to reach the game by then.

[StarDust Bum]

Packers-Falcons NFC matchup expected to produce big offense
January 17, 2017

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) The high-scoring offenses of the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers appear poised to provide a memorable send-off for the Georgia Dome.

Factor in the teams' leaky defenses, and Sunday's NFC championship game could surge past the unusually high over/under of 60+ points set by the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

The Falcons led the NFL in scoring . Even so, they know it won't be easy to keep up with the scoring pace set by quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.

''It's obvious they've got a stud at quarterback,'' Falcons left tackle Jake Matthews said Tuesday. ''We've played a lot of great teams with great players at quarterback. ... Whatever it takes, we just have to put up as many points as we need to.''

Matthews said the weekly message from offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is ''I don't know if we're going to have to win 6-3 or 40-37.''

Of those alternatives, 40-37 appears to be the more likely target, in part because the Atlanta and Green Bay defenses don't dominate the statistics like their offensive counterparts.

Shanahan is a leading candidate in the San Francisco 49ers' coaching search.

The game will be the Falcons' farewell to the Georgia Dome, which will be demolished in the offseason. The Falcons will move into the $1.5 billion Mercedes-Benz Stadium next season.

The Falcons and Packers finished the regular season ranked 28th and 31st, respectively, in pass defense. The Falcons allowed 25.4 points per game to rank 27th, only a few spots below the Packers (24.2) at 21st.

The Falcons beat the Packers 33-32 in Atlanta on Oct. 30. Atlanta led the NFL with 33.8 points per game.

Green Bay linebacker Nick Perry said the goal will be to prevent big plays.

''They are very explosive,'' Perry said. ''When we look at the film, we have to make sure we don't give up those explosive plays. Everything lives off that. They are good at what they do. We are going to look at the film and go over it and make sure we prevent as much as we can of those guys giving up explosive plays.''

The Falcons advanced with a 36-20 divisional playoff win over Seattle last week. Green Bay's offense also rolled in a 34-31 win over Dallas.

Despite the unimpressive season totals, Atlanta allowed fewer than 20 points in four of its last six regular-season games.

But none of those games were against Rodgers.

The Falcons have faced Russell Wilson, Cam Newton and Drew Brees in their past three games.

Asked who compares with Rodgers, Falcons linebacker De'Vondre Campbell had a quick answer.

''Nobody. It's just that simple,'' Campbell said. ''The things that he can do, it's just amazing to see. There's no one I can compare him to.''

The Falcons are led by MVP candidate Matt Ryan , the All-Pro who ranked second in the NFL in yards passing and TD passes. Atlanta's offense featured depth, as Ryan threw scoring passes to a record 13 players during the season, and balance with running back Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

Atlanta's offense provides nice support for its defense, but cornerback Jalen Collins insisted Tuesday he doesn't want to have to rely on that strength.

''You don't go in the game thinking you're going to give up hundreds of yards and a bunch of points,'' Collins said. ''We're looking forward to trying to limit the points as best we can and give our offense an opportunity to put points on the board.''

Falcons cornerback Robert Alford said expectations for a high-scoring game gives the defense reason ''to have a chip on our shoulders.''

Added Alford: ''We're all going to have something to prove. I love it.''

[StarDust Bum]

Patriots happy to be home for latest trip to AFC title game
January 17, 2017

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) The New England Patriots have had what seems like an annual spot in the AFC championship game over the past decade.

But the fact that this year's game is at home could factor into whether they are able to make a return trip to the Super Bowl.

The Patriots became the first team since the 1970 merger to advance to the AFC title game in six straight seasons with their win over the Houston Texans last week.

The Patriots are 5-1 at home in AFC championship games, with their lone loss coming in 2013 against the Ravens in Ray Lewis' final trip to Foxborough.

While being at home doesn't guarantee victory, playing the game at Gillette Stadium is welcomed by a team that has been on the road in two of their past three trips to the AFC title game. Both of those road games ended in losses to Denver, including a 20-18 defeat last season.

''It's the energy. You get out there and everyone is really energetic. The fans are really intense,'' receiver Chris Hogan said Tuesday.

''At the end of the day, it's another football game, and I just have to approach it like that, just the way I've been approaching every single game this year. Go out there, play my best, play good football and try to help this team win as much as I can.''

Special teams captain Matt Slater acknowledged that New England's performance against the Texans could have been better, but said no one is taking anything for granted about this latest shot at a Super Bowl berth.

''Anytime you win a playoff game, whether you play well or not, if you win the game that's all that matters,'' Slater said.

''I think we all appreciate the opportunity that we have. Could we have played better? Certainly. But we could also be at home.''

The Steelers - and coach Mike Tomlin specifically - can expect to get an even more hostile reception than usual from the Patriots fans.

This comes after Tomlin was broadcast using a derogatory expletive to describe the Patriots during a postgame speech to his team following Pittsburgh's divisional-round win over Kansas City.

Unbeknownst to Tomlin, the speech was aired on a social media livestream by Pittsburgh receiver Antonio Brown.

Tomlin apologized for his use of ''regrettable'' language on Tuesday. But he said he's not worried about it having an impact on his team's preparations this week.

''We are in the AFC championship. You aren't going to creep in the back door of New England and win a football game, and creep out of there with an AFC championship,'' he said. ''I am not worried about our team's ability to deal with the potential distractions.''

Slater said he continues to have respect for Tomlin and didn't think his comments would serve as any extra motivation.

''At the end of the day the only thing that is gonna matter is what we do in between those white lines on Sunday,'' Slater said. ''What is said or what is done off the football field it really doesn't matter. It's about executing on Sunday.''

Notes: Receiver Chris Hogan said he is ''feeling good'' after he left Saturday's win in the third quarter with a thigh injury. He said he could have come back into game, but the decision was made with the training staff for him not to go back in. ''Just had a little minor setback in the game, but I'm working back every single day and feeling better every day,'' Hogan said.

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Championships
January 19, 2017

Divisional Playoffs Recap

The ‘over’ went 3-1 last weekend and all of the results were clear-cut. Bettors playing halves watched the first-half go 3-1 to the ‘over’ as well while the second-halves ended in a stalemate (2-2). Through eight games, the ‘over’ stands at 5-3 in the playoffs.

Championship Game History

The ‘under’ has cashed in five straight AFC title games and is 6-4 over the last 10 years. New England will be playing in its six straight championship game and even though the club is known for offense, the unit has only averaged 23 points per game in their last five trips. Pittsburgh has watched the ‘over’ go 2-0 in its last two trips to the AFC title game but both of those totals closed in the thirties.

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL HISTORY (2006-2015)

Year Result Total

2015-2016 Denver 20 vs. New England 18 45, Under

2014-2015 New England 45 vs. Indianapolis 7 52.5, Under

2013-2014 Denver 26 vs. New England 16 57, Under

2012-2013 Baltimore 28 at New England 13 49.5, Under

2011-2012 New England 23 vs. Baltimore 20 49, Under

2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, Over

2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, Over

2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, Over

2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, Under

2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, Over


The NFC Championship has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 the last 10 years both Green Bay (2-1) and Atlanta (1-0) have helped contribute to that mark.

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL HISTORY (2006-2015)

Year Result Total

2015-2016 Carolina 49 vs. Arizona 15 47.5, Over

2014-2015 Seattle 28 vs. Green Bay 22 (OT) 47, Over

2013-2014 Seattle 23 vs. San Francisco 17 40.5, Under

2012-2013 San Francisco 28 at Atlanta 24 48, Over

2011-2012 New York 20 at San Francisco 17 (OT) 42, Under

2010-2011 Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 42, Under

2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 (OT) 54, Over

2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, Over

2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 at Green Bay 20 41, Over

2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, Over


NFC Championship – Green Bay at Atlanta (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)

After this game was set last Sunday, oddsmakers sent out a total of 58 ½ and that number didn’t last long. It was quickly pushed up to 61 and most books are holding 60 to 61 as of Thursday.

In the 2011 playoffs, New Orleans earned a 45-28 home win over Detroit in the Wild Card round and the total (59 ½) on that game was the highest ever for a playoff matchup. For those keeping records, the highest total for any NFL game occurred in the 2000 regular season when the Rams and 49ers had a number of 62 ½ and that game went ‘under’ as St. Louis captured a 34-24 win in the Bay Area.

I’m not sure if Sunday’s number will reach 62 or 63 but I certainly don’t see a ton of wagers leaning to the low side, especially when you look at the form for both clubs.

Atlanta owns the best scoring offense (33.9 PPG) in the league and Green Bay is averaging 32.2 PPG during its current eight-game winning streak.

Those numbers have helped the Falcons produced the best ‘over’ mark (14-2-1) this season and that includes a perfect 9-0 mark at the Georgia Dome. Green Bay has also been a great ‘over’ bet (12-6) and it’s riding a six-game run to the high side headed into this game.

These teams met in Week 8 and Atlanta earned a 33-32 decision at home and the ‘over’ (51) was never in doubt as Green Bay led 24-19 at halftime. The game had 11 scores, eight of them being touchdowns and there were no turnovers in a game that saw both quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (246 yards, 4 TDs) and Matt Ryan (288 yards, 3 TDs) dice up the defensive units.

Even though the teams combined for 65 in the first go ‘round, the pace wasn’t exactly fast and each team only had nine possessions. Green Bay ran 60 offensive plays while Atlanta’s unit offensive only managed 56 snaps.

Another factor contributing to Atlanta’s great ‘over’ record is its defense, which allowed 25.1 PPG this season. However, the unit trimmed that number to 21.9 PPG in the second-half of the season and they did hold Seattle to 20 points last Saturday.

Including last week’s win over Seattle in the Divisional Playoffs, the Falcons have now seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 in six postseason games with Ryan under center behind an offense averaging 28.5 PPG.

The Packers posted 34 points at Dallas last Sunday and the club has now seen the 'over' go 7-3 in 10 road playoff games with Rodgers at QB. These teams met in the 2010 playoffs from the Georgia Dome and Rodgers was near perfect (31-of-36, 366 yards, 3 TDs) as the Packers earned a 48-21 road win.

Fearless Prediction: Everybody is expecting a shootout in this matchup and while it’s hard to argue for the ‘under’ in this game, it’s the smarter play because the line has been inflated 10 points since they met earlier in the season. I could see one team getting into the thirties but not both and I would lean to the Green Bay Team Total ‘under’ (28) and the Atlanta Team Total ‘under’ (32 ½).

AFC Championship – Pittsburgh at New England (CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET)

Unlike the NFC title game, this total hasn’t had as much movement and has stayed closer to the opener of 51 ½ but the early money has come in on the ‘under.’ As of Thursday, most books were holding steady at 50, 50 ½ and 51.

It’s a tough total to handicap because the Patriots (10-7) and Steelers (12-6) have both produced solid ‘under’ wagers this season yet the oddsmakers know that Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger are more than capable of lighting up the scoreboard.

The Patriots dropped the Texans 34-16 last Saturday in the Divisional Playoffs and the ‘over’ connected (44 ½) despite Brady only completely 47 percent of his passes. Truth be told, Brady hasn’t looked sharp in his last two playoff games but he was also facing top-ranked units in Houston and Denver in last year’s conference championship.

Expecting Brady to rebound on Sunday isn’t a stretch, especially when you look at his career numbers against Pittsburgh. The Patriots have gone 9-2 versus the Steelers with Brady under center and he’s tossed 26 touchdowns and only three interceptions while completing 69 percent of his passes.

In this year’s meeting between the pair in Week 7, Brady was sharp (19-of-26, 222 yards, 2 TDs) and the Patriots defeated the Steelers 27-16 on the road. Landry Jones played for an injured Roethlisberger and he wasn’t that bad in the loss, tossing for 281 yards and a score. The game went ‘under’ (49 ½) and three of the last four in this series have gone to the low side.

Pittsburgh’s 18-16 win over Kansas City last Sunday saw the ‘under’ (45 ½) connect as the Steelers settled for six field goals. Including that result, Pittsburgh has seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in nine games away from Heinz Field this season.

Defensively, New England (15.6 PPG) is ranked first in scoring and Pittsburgh (19.7 PPG) isn’t far behind with the eighth ranked unit. While those numbers are impressive, you can argue that neither unit has been tested against many top-tier quarterback this season.

Including Brady, the Steelers only faced two other signal callers ranked in the Top 10 in quarterback rating - Kirk Cousins in Week 1 and Dak Prescott in Week 10. The Steelers went 1-2 in those games while allowing 26 PPG. Meanwhile when it comes to QBR, the best gunslinger that New England faced this season was Ryan Tannehill, who was ranked 12th. The Patriots beat the Dolphins in Week 2 but Tannehill finished 32-of-45 for 387 yards with a pair of touchdowns and interceptions. After him, Seattle’s Russell Wilson (14th) was the next stiffest test for the Patriots this season and he diced up the unit (25-of-27, 348 yards, 3 TDs) for a 31-24 Seahawks road win in Week 10.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin watched the ‘over’ go 8-0-1 in his first nine playoff games but the ‘under’ has cashed in his last four postseason games. While New England has had a knack of putting up points in the Divisional round, the same can’t be said for championship round. As mentioned above, the Patriots are averaging 23 PPG in their last five trips to the AFC title game and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 5-0 during this span.

Fearless Prediction: Even though Pittsburgh has scored 18, 16 and 18 points in its last three playoff road games, I believe the Steelers will score in this spot against a New England defense that hasn’t been tested. With that being said, I’ll play the Pittsburgh Team Total ‘over’ (22 1 ½).

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Moves - Championships
January 20, 2017

The average Joe is having their best NFL playoffs which in turn has made the last two weeks the roughest playoffs Las Vegas sports books have ever seen. It's been an incredible run, and those bettors have made it well-known what their collectively strategy is for Sunday's conference championship games.

"We're split overall on the Packers-Falcons game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal, "but if the Packers win paying off on the money-line (+175), parlayed to the Over (61) and then tied to the Patriots covering (-6), it's going to be an ugly day."

That's the doomsday three-team parlay paying out +902 that the books simply can't make up through straight bet wagers on the other sides.

"It's been all Packers money-line with the fans (public) while the sharps have been on the Falcons," Simbal said. "Were 5.5-to-1 on ticket counts with the Packers money-line."

CG Tech's nine books in Las Vegas have theFalcons as 5.5-point home favorites over thePackers, which along with the Westgate SuperBook is the highest number offered in Las Vegas as of Friday afternoon. Most books are at -5 with the South Point offering the only -4.5.

William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have seen 91 percent of their GB/ATL money-line tickets written on the Packers money-line (+175) as well as 78 percent of the actual cash.

Wynn Resort sports books director John Avello says he's "seeing some good size wagers on the Packers money-line". When Avello says "good size wagers" at a place that houses several whales who get any amount they want, I immediately think six-figures.

Who needs the points with the Packers anyway, right? Although, it was the Packers who needed +3 to cash in the Week 8 meeting at Atlanta when the Falcons won 33-32, the Packers to win outright has been the popular bet throughout town.

It's hard not to buy in to the reasoning and believe in quarterback Aaron Rodgers after saying his team would "run the table" when the Packers were 4-6 and playoff hopes were looking dim. True to his word, Green Bay has won eight straight (7-1 ATS) and made Joe Public a believer.

Perhaps the most intriguing part of the Packers-Falcons game is the monstrous record setting total sitting as high as 61.5 at Boyd Gaming and Station Casinos chain of local casinos. Most books, like CG Technology, are firm at 61.

"We had sharp action take 'over' 59.5 and also 'under' 61.5. When we've been at 60 or 61 we've had good two-way action. The fans are betting Over."

The last two meetings between MVP candidates Matt Ryan and Rodgers have totaled a whopping 145 points.

"If Atlanta could win by 3, that would be super," said Simbal regarding his best scenario. "It would also help us out in futures because we do the best with them in NFC and Super Bowl."

Sunday's late game features two more elite quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger, with thePatriots as consensus six-point home favorites over theSteelers and the public has made it clear who they support here with a number driven up from an opener of -4.5.

"They're betting New England and they can't stop betting New England," said Simbal. "We're at -6 and have over two times the cash on the Patriots. We've also taken a huge Patriots money-line bet (at -230). All the fans are betting the Steelers money-line (+220), but we still need them to win."

The Steelers come into this game on a nine-game win streak (7-1-1 ATS), but the Patriots have won eight straight (7-1 ATS). The most incredible thing about what New England has done this season is go 14-3 ATS when most of the spreads -- when Tom Brady returned in Week 5 -- were inflated by 25 percent of what the true rating suggested.

The Patriots won a Week 7 meeting at Pittsburgh, 27-16, as 7.5-point road favorites in a game that Roethlisberger missed. They last met in the playoffs during Big Ben's rookie season when the Steelers were seeded No. 1 and the Patriots (-3) won 41-27 earning a trip to the Super Bowl.

William Hill books have taken 88 percent of their cash on the game laying the points with the Patriots. The total in the game hasn't been as popular as the NFC game holding steady at 51 with a few books showing 50.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Conference Championship odds hit the board with a flurry of action

“It’s an odd opener, and some of the oddsmaking team wanted to be higher with the Pats because of the unparalleled perception of this squad currently."

We’re heading into conference championship week in the NFL playoffs, with one No. 1 seed intact and the other No. 1 already undone. We talk about the opening lines for next weekend’s matchups with Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Green Bay sent the top-seeded Dallas Cowboys home from the playoffs in a hurry, though in a thrilling game. The Packers (12-6 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) got out to a 21-3 lead, then squeaked out of Big D with a 34-31 victory as a 5.5-point underdog. Aaron Rodgers led two late field-goal drives, sandwiched around a Cowboys field goal that tied the game at 31 with 35 seconds left.

That was just enough time for Rodgers to work his magic, and Mason Crosby hit a 51-yarder as time expired to send the Pack to the NFC Championship Game. Fourth-seeded Green Bay will ride an eight-game SU win streak – and 7-1 ATS – into Atlanta.

The second-seeded Falcons (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS) had no trouble dispatching No. 3 seed Seattle on Saturday night, coasting 36-20 as a 6.5-point home favorite. Matt Ryan and Co. have won five in a row (4-1 ATS) and six of their last seven.

“A lot of people think the line on the Atlanta game is too high,” Kornegay said, though he noted there was an early burst and then a drawdown with the line. “We opened -4, and the market moved to -5.5, then back to -4.”

Bookmaker.eu opened the Falcons -6, but that didn’t last long.

“Initial sharp action has come on the Packers and the over, moving the line to Atlanta -4.5 and 60.5,” Cooley said. It later ticked down to Falcons -4.

The total is perhaps as interesting as the spread. Bookmaker opened at 59.5 and, as Cooley noted, bumped up to 60.5 on sharp money.

“The over/under is the highest ever for a conference championship or Super Bowl,” Cooley said. “The New England at Denver total during the 2013-14 playoffs closed at 57. In Week 13 of the 2014-15 regular season, Bookmaker.eu posted a 61-point total in a game between the Packers and Patriots.”

The Superbook’s opener of 60 on the total prompted Kornegay to say, “I can’t remember a higher total.”

These two teams met in the regular season, on Oct. 30, when Atlanta eked out a 33-32 home win laying 3 points. Sunday’s NFC title tilt kicks off at 3:05 p.m. Eastern.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-4.5)

Pittsburgh is as hot as any of the remaining playoff teams, having peeled off nine consecutive victories while going 7-1-1 ATS. In Sunday’s AFC divisional playoff at No. 2 seed Kansas City, the third-seeded Steelers couldn’t score a single touchdown, but six field goals proved just enough in an 18-16 victory as a 2.5-point underdog. Mike Tomlin’s troops improved to 13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS.

New England (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS) led just 17-13 at halftime of Saturday’s divisional contest against Houston, and Tom Brady threw an uncharacteristic two interceptions, one in each half. But the top-seeded Patriots ended up rolling to a 34-16 win as a 16-point home fave. Bill Belichick’s squad is on an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS run as it prepares to host the AFC final, at 6:40 p.m. Eastern Sunday.

“The New England line was easy to make, and we almost had a consensus at -4.5,” Kornegay said, while adding that number got bet through 5 and up to 5.5 shortly after the Superbook posted the line late Sunday night. “But those are dead numbers to go through. The market moved up, but we expect it to come back, just like the Falcons line.”

Bookmaker.eu opened New England at -5.5, and Cooley said early action took the number to 6 in short order.

“Two teams the public loves to bet on, so it will be interesting to see how this line is shaped,” Cooley said. “It’s an odd opener, and some of the oddsmaking team wanted to be higher with the Pats because of the unparalleled perception of this squad currently. They look invincible, and the bettors can’t get enough of them.”

Had Kansas City advanced to face New England, Kornegay said it would have been tough to draw two-way action.

“We can expect the public to lean on Green Bay and maybe split on the AFC Championship Game. That will help us,” Kornegay said. “If Kansas City would have won, it would have been all New England money.”




NFC Championship Game features highest playoff betting total on record

The Packers and Falcons met at the Georgia Dome in Week 8 and combined for 65 points in a 33-32 victory by Atlanta.

Sunday's NFC Championship Game will feature two of the hottest offensive units in all of football, the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons. It's been said that defense wins championships - but these two teams beg to differ.

As soon as the possibility presented itself, sports bettors had no choice but to daydream about the possibility of hitting an easy Over with Aaron Rodgers going toe-to-toe with Matt Ryan with a trip to Super Bowl 51 on the line. Well, as it turns out, the oddsmakers had similar dreams.

While Rodgers was slinging bullets down the sidelines to tiptoeing tight ends and Mason Crosby was knuckling 50+ yard field goals to beat the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, oddsmakers were scrambling to get odds on the board for the showdown at the Georgia Dome - and they certainly did not disappoint.

As expected, the Falcons opened as 4 to 4.5-point favorites, but the real highlight came with the release of the total. A staggering 60 was the first Over/Under figure to hit the board in Las Vegas.

“I can’t remember a higher total,” said Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports at the Westgate LV Superbook.

As the dust settled on an exciting evening of playoff football, and most of us nestled into bed for the night, Over bettors decided this was their time to strike. And by Monday morning, the lofty total of 60 was bet up a full point to it's current number of 61.

Mr. Kornegay, from the Superbook, may not remember a higher NFL total - but our stats database never forgets. While we still have many days before we get a closing number for the NFC Championship Game, the current number of 61 would be the second highest betting total ever recorded in our records (complete data back to 1985).

The highest total was a Week 9 game between the St. Louis Rams and the San Francisco 49ers back in the 2000-2001 season that was pegged with a 61.5. On that afternoon at 3Com Park in San Francisco, "The Greatest Show on Turf" defeated the Niners, 34-24, failing to cash for Over bettors.

When narrowing the search to include only NFL playoff games we discover the highest betting total on record was a 59.5 between the Detroit Lions and the New Orleans Saints during Wild-Card Week back in the 2011-12 season. The two teams combined for 73 points in a 45-28 victory by the Saints and cashed Over tickets with a furious 28-point fourth quarter.

It's difficult to predict where the number for the Packers and the Falcons will end up by Sunday afternoon. We can be pretty confident that it will end up as the highest total in NFL playoff history and, if Over bettors hit it hard enough, it could get a bump and end up as the highest Over/Under figure we've ever seen for an NFL game.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (12 - 6) at ATLANTA (12 - 5) - 1/22/2017, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 94-65 ATS (+22.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 71-41 ATS (+25.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
ATLANTA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (13 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (15 - 2) - 1/22/2017, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 114-81 ATS (+24.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-53 ATS (+21.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NFL

Conference Championships

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:05 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games when playing Atlanta
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Green Bay

6:40 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NEW ENGLAND
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games when playing Pittsburgh
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Conference Championships

Sun – Jan. 22

Green Bay at Atlanta, 3:05 PM ET
Green Bay: 12-2 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less
Atlanta: 10-0 OVER as a favorite

Pittsburgh at New England, 6:40 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 6-0 UNDER in road games off a road win
New England: 12-3 ATS in home lined games




NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 22


Pittsburgh @ New England

Game 313-314
January 22, 2017 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
143.286
New England
143.672
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
Even
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+5 1/2); Under

Green Bay @ Atlanta

Game 311-312
January 22, 2017 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
143.587
Atlanta
141.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4 1/2
61
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+4 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Conference Championship edition

The Falcons humbled just about every defense that came into the Georgia Dome during the regular season, and did the same against the Seattle Seahawks in their divisional round tilt.

Here are the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Conference Championship Games:

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 61)

Packers' red-zone dominance vs. Falcons' shoddy TD prevention

Oddsmakers know an offensive maelstrom when they see it - and this weekend's NFC Championship Game between the Packers and the Falcons has all the makings of a touchdown-laden classic, with a total sitting in the low-60s as of Wednesday. Both teams have rolled through the last two months of the season largely on the strength of their impressive offensive attacks - and as you'll read below, both will look to exploit significant mismatches in hopes of reaching the Super Bowl in Houston on Feb. 5.

The Packers have done a lot of things right in their incredible run to the conference championship, but their red-zone performance has been among the most impressive. The Aaron Rodgers-led offense has converted a whopping 90.9 percent of its red-zone visits into touchdowns over the past three games, moving the team above 63 percent for the season - a top-10 showing league-wide. The Packers' 63.9% road conversion rate ranks sixth in the NFL.

The Falcons are deserving opponents, but they didn't get here because of their elite red-zone defense. Atlanta has allowed foes to convert red-zone trips into six points more than 70 percent of the time so far this season; only the playoff-averse Los Angeles Rams performed worse. And Atlanta's 71.0-percent rate at the Georgia Dome is the worst in the league - yes, even worse than the aforementioned Rams. If Green Bay gets into the red zone at will, it could be a long day for the Atlanta defense.

Atlanta's elite home pass attack vs. Green Bay's porous road D

On the flip side, the Falcons humbled just about every defense that came into the Georgia Dome during the regular season, and did the same against the Seattle Seahawks in their divisional round tilt. Matt Ryan has surged his way into MVP talks with a sensational 2016 campaign that has seen Atlanta average better than 35 points per game in its own stadium - and that could spell serious trouble for a Green Bay defense that couldn't do much of anything on the road.

The Falcons led the NFL in home scoring by better than four points over the runner-up New Orleans Saints, and that's mostly thanks to Ryan. The veteran signal caller helped Atlanta post an absurd 120.0 team passer rating at home; no other team finished higher than 109.8. And Ryan has saved his best for late in the season, posting a 130.5 rating over his last three games. It's a stunning turnaround from last season, when the Falcons' passer rating was a dismal 87.8.

Atlanta's conference championship matchup couldn't have been better from a pass defense perspective. Green Bay allowed a higher passer rating on the road (108.8) than any team in football, a major reason why the team finished 25th overall in passer rating against (94.8). Dak Prescott's 103.2 rating in last week's divisional round game will do little to quell concerns among Packers fans that this team isn't equipped to slow Ryan down - especially in familiar surroundings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 50.5)

Steelers' third-down D trouble vs. Pats' clutch offense

The AFC Championship features two quarterbacks who are rather comfortable in the spotlight: New England Patriots legend Tom Brady will be seeking his seventh trip to the Super Bowl, while Pittsburgh veteran Ben Roethlisberger is looking to reach his fourth career title game. But for Big Ben and the Steelers to get to the big game, they'll need to overcome a pair of mismatches that has the Patriots in the driver's seat according to oddsmakers.

It starts with third-down defense, where Pittsburgh has struggled for most of the season. The Steelers have allowed teams to extend drives on third down more than 40 percent of the time, ranking them 23rd in the league; that rate jumps to 42.1 percent over Pittsburgh's last three games - and while the Steelers did well to contain Kansas City's third-down efforts last week (2-for-9), the Chiefs aren't exactly an offensive power, having converted just 37.4 percent of third downs on the year.

Things are about to get a whole lot tougher for Pittsburgh in that regard. Brady and the Patriots rank fourth in the NFL in third-down conversion rate (45.2 percent), a significant improvement over 2015 (39.7). And to no one's surprise, New England has been even more proficient down the stretch, converting third downs at a 52.3-percent clip over its last three games. If the Steelers don't find a way to force punts, they'll be watching the Super Bowl from the couch.

Pittsburgh's penalty problems vs. New England's elite discipline

There's little doubt that the Steelers have the offensive components to keep up with the Patriots on the scoreboard, even at hostile Gillette Stadium. But Pittsburgh will need to find a way to remain composed even if things aren't going its way; not only do the Steelers rank as one of the most penalized teams in the league this season, they're matched up against a New England team that showed impressive discipline en route to another sensational campaign.

The Steelers come into this one having racked up the sixth-most accepted penalties in the league (122), resulting in the fourth-most accepted penalty yards (1,181). They reached double-digit infractions three times during the regular season, including their previous meeting with the Patriots, when they were flagged 10 times for 85 yards. Even more discouraging: a season-high seven of those penalties came on the offensive end, resulting in 55 total yards lost.

By comparison, the Patriots have had just 98 accepted flags against in 2016; only four teams had fewer, and three of those teams have played one fewer game than New England. The Patriots' 869 accepted penalty yards is also bottom-10 in the league, and more than 300 fewer than their conference championship opponent. New England had just four penalties for 40 yards in the regular-season win over Pittsburgh - and if the gap is just as big this weekend, the Steelers will have an even bigger hill to climb.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Conference Championships

Packers (12-6) @ Falcons (12-5)— Green Bay won its last eight games; they were underdogs in three of the eight games. Packers are 2-2 on artificial turf this season- all four of those games were in domes. Only way #2 seeds play conference final at home is if #1 seed loses its first playoff game; since 1997, #2 seeds playing conference final at home are 2-7, 0-3 in NFC (Steelers got both wins). Green Bay lost 33-32 at Atlanta back in Week 8, during midst of Packers’ defensive funk; TY was 367-331 Falcons in game Green Bay led 24-19 at half- it was Falcons’ first win in last five games vs Packers, who won playoff game 48-21 here in 2010. Atlanta won its last five games, scoring 38.4 pts/game. Last six Packer games went over total- over is 14-2-1 in Atlanta games this season.

Steelers (13-5) @ Patriots (15-2)— Since 2004, #1 seeds are 5-0 in conference title games (4-1 vs spread) when facing a #3 or worse seed, who didn’t get first round bye. Home team won AFC title game nine of last ten years; Patriots are 2-3 in this game last five years- they’re 4-1 in AFC title games at home under Belichick. Steelers won their last nine games; they’re 1-1 as an underdog this year. Patriots are 7-2 at home, 7-2 as a home favorite; they’re 12-1 with Brady at QB, with only loss to the Seahawks. New England won last three series games, by 24-7-11 points; they beat Steelers 27-16 in Week 7, in game Roethlisberger sat out, making it mostly irrelevant. Pitt lost four of last five visits here, with last win in ’08. Under is 10-4 in last 14 Steeler games, 5-3 in Patriots’ last eight games.