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NFL Divisional Round Playoff lines that make you go hmmm...
The Cowboys are 4-point home favorites versus the Packers. This veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker gives you his take on the NFL odds making him go "hmmm..." this weekend.
Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL Divisional Round schedule and tells you why these postseason lines are making him go “hmmm…”
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 51)
These two played each other in mid-October where Seattle won at home by a 26-24 score alongside a 7-point spread. Looking at the game this week in Atlanta, the Falcons are enjoying a solid 4.5-point spread which may not move all that much from now until game time.
Personally, I made around a field goal, either -2.5 or -3 (EVEN). To me, the Seattle win against Detroit was more than just going through the motions. I gave the Seahawks some props for ironing out some issues and keeping the machine rolling. Sometimes it does a team well to keep the routine going and gain momentum heading into the second round.
Not every team reacts as well to a week off at this point than others. They say every player has some aches and pains at this juncture and getting a rest at this point of the season can do a body well. But when timing and routine are so important to players and teams, this downtime can be disruptive, particularly at the beginning of the game.
If this line moves anywhere, it will move down, closer to the underdogs. My advice would be to get the Seattle bets in now for its best value and if you’re looking for the best number with Atlanta, wait until game day when this gets closer to my opener.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-16, 45)
I find it fascinating that most bettors and bookmakers make the 17-point difference a key number. I find it particularly galling that bookmakers move a line this high with half-point moves. Normally, this is an easy game to decipher as to who is feeding the machine and at what levels. The masses will back the Patriots at -16 or -16.5 while the wiseguys will hit the +17 if it gets there. However, I think the wiseguys may have to throw in the towel with their “value” and may support New England no matter what.
Personally, I think there are more elements that may come to fruition that will keep this game closer than expected but I don’t think the line is going to move very much from where it is now. I agreed with the opening offshore number. I thought the offshore -14.5 was pretty good and was amazed as to how quickly this jumped to -16.
I do know with four games going to the favorites this past weekend, that has left an indelible point in bettors’ minds for the games this week (three of the four games have pretty much been one-way action) but Patriot backers are asking a lot to keep this kind of distance right out of the chute in their first game of the playoffs.
This one is more of a coin toss where a first touchdown score by Houston will go a long way into this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 44.5)
I agreed with the offshores that Pittsburgh should be some kind of a favorite. And to my thinking, it will be by kickoff. The -1 on the Steelers was wiped clean and posted on Kansas City almost immediately after everyone saw Ben Roethlisberger’s foot in a walking boot.
The line hit -2.5 on the Chiefs momentarily but has since dropped to -1.5 by midweek as the Pittsburgh QB has stated he’ll be fine to play. Rarely does a score get affected by a 1.5-point spread when the line is actually 1.5, but your mind gets a little snarled after you look at it for a while.
You’re basically asking yourself to just pick the winner (Like last week. Wasn’t so tough was it?). I was agreeing with most football aficionados a few weeks ago that the best matchup for the AFC Championship game would be the Steelers and the Patriots and I stand by that. Don’t look at this number other than determining which is the better team? By all accounts, on a neutral field, the Steelers are. In Pittsburgh, the Steelers are. And in KC, they will likely still be come Sunday.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 52)
It’s unfortunate that Green Bay receiver Jordy Nelson will not play. That certainly has to be in the line purely by perception that for this one game, he’s better than the backups that will be in his place. But by how much?
It’s tough to gauge the value of a wide receiver for one game. In actuality, the options did a good job. Also, it makes for a blurred defensive scheme now that you have to focus on a number of receivers rather than one key player. I made this game -3.5 Dallas on the basis of what Green Bay has been doing lately and what Dallas has done all year.
At the -4 level, you’re admitting that these teams are basically even on a neutral field. The line will close around -4. I don’t see this surging towards the Packers on game day as there’s just too much money that backs the ‘Boys every week. This will never make -5 as wiseguys will be all over Green Bay at the higher number.
With a total of 52 points, oddsmakers are expecting more touchdowns than field goals so between the difference of three or four, there’s a smaller chance that comes into play. But since we know how a number at three or four affects the bettors’ minds, this number is as good as it gets for this game.
The Cowboys are 4-point home favorites versus the Packers. This veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker gives you his take on the NFL odds making him go "hmmm..." this weekend.
Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL Divisional Round schedule and tells you why these postseason lines are making him go “hmmm…”
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 51)
These two played each other in mid-October where Seattle won at home by a 26-24 score alongside a 7-point spread. Looking at the game this week in Atlanta, the Falcons are enjoying a solid 4.5-point spread which may not move all that much from now until game time.
Personally, I made around a field goal, either -2.5 or -3 (EVEN). To me, the Seattle win against Detroit was more than just going through the motions. I gave the Seahawks some props for ironing out some issues and keeping the machine rolling. Sometimes it does a team well to keep the routine going and gain momentum heading into the second round.
Not every team reacts as well to a week off at this point than others. They say every player has some aches and pains at this juncture and getting a rest at this point of the season can do a body well. But when timing and routine are so important to players and teams, this downtime can be disruptive, particularly at the beginning of the game.
If this line moves anywhere, it will move down, closer to the underdogs. My advice would be to get the Seattle bets in now for its best value and if you’re looking for the best number with Atlanta, wait until game day when this gets closer to my opener.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-16, 45)
I find it fascinating that most bettors and bookmakers make the 17-point difference a key number. I find it particularly galling that bookmakers move a line this high with half-point moves. Normally, this is an easy game to decipher as to who is feeding the machine and at what levels. The masses will back the Patriots at -16 or -16.5 while the wiseguys will hit the +17 if it gets there. However, I think the wiseguys may have to throw in the towel with their “value” and may support New England no matter what.
Personally, I think there are more elements that may come to fruition that will keep this game closer than expected but I don’t think the line is going to move very much from where it is now. I agreed with the opening offshore number. I thought the offshore -14.5 was pretty good and was amazed as to how quickly this jumped to -16.
I do know with four games going to the favorites this past weekend, that has left an indelible point in bettors’ minds for the games this week (three of the four games have pretty much been one-way action) but Patriot backers are asking a lot to keep this kind of distance right out of the chute in their first game of the playoffs.
This one is more of a coin toss where a first touchdown score by Houston will go a long way into this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 44.5)
I agreed with the offshores that Pittsburgh should be some kind of a favorite. And to my thinking, it will be by kickoff. The -1 on the Steelers was wiped clean and posted on Kansas City almost immediately after everyone saw Ben Roethlisberger’s foot in a walking boot.
The line hit -2.5 on the Chiefs momentarily but has since dropped to -1.5 by midweek as the Pittsburgh QB has stated he’ll be fine to play. Rarely does a score get affected by a 1.5-point spread when the line is actually 1.5, but your mind gets a little snarled after you look at it for a while.
You’re basically asking yourself to just pick the winner (Like last week. Wasn’t so tough was it?). I was agreeing with most football aficionados a few weeks ago that the best matchup for the AFC Championship game would be the Steelers and the Patriots and I stand by that. Don’t look at this number other than determining which is the better team? By all accounts, on a neutral field, the Steelers are. In Pittsburgh, the Steelers are. And in KC, they will likely still be come Sunday.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 52)
It’s unfortunate that Green Bay receiver Jordy Nelson will not play. That certainly has to be in the line purely by perception that for this one game, he’s better than the backups that will be in his place. But by how much?
It’s tough to gauge the value of a wide receiver for one game. In actuality, the options did a good job. Also, it makes for a blurred defensive scheme now that you have to focus on a number of receivers rather than one key player. I made this game -3.5 Dallas on the basis of what Green Bay has been doing lately and what Dallas has done all year.
At the -4 level, you’re admitting that these teams are basically even on a neutral field. The line will close around -4. I don’t see this surging towards the Packers on game day as there’s just too much money that backs the ‘Boys every week. This will never make -5 as wiseguys will be all over Green Bay at the higher number.
With a total of 52 points, oddsmakers are expecting more touchdowns than field goals so between the difference of three or four, there’s a smaller chance that comes into play. But since we know how a number at three or four affects the bettors’ minds, this number is as good as it gets for this game.
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