NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Thursday, December 22 - Monday, December 26)

[Udog]

NFL Underdogs: Week 16 pointspread picks and predictions
By ANDREW CALEY

Andrew Caley wishes you a happy holidays and hopes you can stuff your stockings with a little extra cash with his Christmas edition of underdog picks.

I love this time of year.

The smell of pine fills the house, Christmas carols on the stereo and family all under one roof. In my household in particular, we have traditions of lobster on Christmas Eve, Christmas morning mimosas, classic Simpons marathons (classic being Seasons 3 to 8, of course) and plenty of rum and egg nog.

It’s just the perfect combination for me and this year, it gets even better, because not only do we have NBA on Christmas Day, we get football on Christmas Eve and December 25. That sounds like a perfect Christmas to me.

Before we dive into a Christmas edition of “Dogs”, I just want to say Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you and yours. It’s a very meaningful time of year to me and my family and I hope all those reading this have the very best of holidays.

Let’s see if we can make those holidays even better by giving you the gift of underdog winners this Christmas, starting with an important NFC South matchup on Christmas Eve when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the New Orleans Saints.

The surprising Buccaneers’ five-game win streak may have come to end last week at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, but Tampa Bay gave Big D all it could handle and was able to cover the seven points. In fact, the Bucs have been a great early Christmas gift for bettors, covering the spread in six consecutive games.

Additionally, the Bucs are an impressive 6-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Saints are just 3-4 ATS at home.

These teams met just met two weeks ago with the Bucs winning a slobber knocker, 16-11 with Tampa Bay as 2-point home chalk. In that meeting, Tampa Bay’s defense did what it does best - take away the football. They intercepted Drew Brees three times in that matchup and are third in the NFL in takeaways with 26.

This Bucs team is just fun to watch and seems to have a lot of fight in it.

Pick: Buccaneers +3


Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears (+3)

The weather outside is frightful, and the Chicago Bears love it.

As noted by Covers managing editor Jason Logan last week, the Bears enjoy playing in freezing temperatures and just at home in general this season.
The Bears may look bad on the surface, but they have actually been a boon for bettors at Soldier Field, going 5-2 ATS. And you may not realize this, but they have covered the spread in five consecutive games.

What really makes me likes Chicago this week is the matchup. The Bears actually have an underrated defense, ranking ninth in total yards allowed. But more importantly for this matchup against pass-happy Washington is their sixth ranked passing defense that allows just 219.9 yards per game.

So this falls under the category of a good defense getting points at home.

Pick: Bears +3


Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Ravens are a bad bet on the road this season. I know. But, you throw everything out the window when the Ravens and Steelers face off. Especially when first place in the AFC North is on the line.

Baltimore won the first meeting this season 21-14 back in Week 9 as a 3.5-point home underdog, when it held Ben Roethlisberger to 23-of-45 passing for 264 yards, one touchdown and one interception. So a win by Baltimore would give it the tiebreaker.

Baltimore also has a Top-5 defense this season when it comes to total yards. This one has the feeling of a back-and-forth Christmas Day slugfest and 5.5 points seems like too many with so much on the line.

Pick: Ravens +5.5


Detroit Lions (+7) at Dallas Cowboys

With the New Giants loss to the Philadelphia Eagles Thursday the Cowboys clinched the NFC East and the No. 1 overall seed in the conference, giving them little to play for these final two weeks.

We don’t yet know how the Cowboys will handle this situation in terms of resting players (will Tony Romo see some snaps?), but you’d have to think they’re going to be cautious if nothing else. Either way, I kind of liked the Lions here before Thursday night’s developments.

Detroit has to play hungry with the Packers breathing down their necks in the NFC North and I think the Lions bounce back after last week’s tough loss to the Giants.

As long as Matthew Stafford’s middle finger on his throwing hand can hold up, this is a competitive game. Stafford was 24 of 39 for 273 yards and an interception in the loss to the Giants and is a week healthier.

Stocking Stuffer Pick: Lions +7


Last Week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 24-20-1 ATS

[Udog]

Essential Week 16 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Christmas Eve

The Seahawks can clinch a first round bye with a win on Christmas Eve over the division rival Cardinals. Seatlle is currently favored by a touchdown.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-4, 42)

* Jay Ajayi surpassed the 200-yard plateau for the second straight week when he erupted for 214 yards and a touchdown in the last meeting with Buffalo. The second-year running back once again recorded a triple-digit yard performance after the team's bye, but has been held under 79 in each of his last six outings with only one trip into the end zone to boot. Kenny Stills reeled in his seventh touchdown from 20-plus yards out last week when he snared a 52-yard catch versus the Jets and also found the end zone in his last meeting with the Bills.

* While McCoy being named as a Pro Bowl selection for the fifth time in his career is hardly considered breaking news, linebacker Lorenzo Alexander has opened eyes with his stellar play this season. The 33-year-old notched his second such honor on Tuesday after his team-leading 11.5 sacks have him tied for third-best in the NFL. Miami native Tyrod Taylor completed over 70 percent of his passes last week versus Cleveland, but was just 14 of 28 (season-low 50 percent) for 221 yards in the first meeting with the Dolphins.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened this AFC East battle as 3.5-point home favorites and that line has inched up to 4 late in the week. The total opened at 43 and was bet down as low as 41 before rebounding to 42. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games in December.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
* Bills are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 7-0 in Bills last 7 home games.
* Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Buffalo.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3, 51.5)

* Atlanta’s offense has continued to put points on the board even without star receiver Julio Jones, who has missed the last two games with a sprained toe but will play Saturday. Matt Ryan, who rolled up 503 passing yards and four touchdowns in the Week 4 win, is putting up MVP-like numbers and spreading the ball around, as 11 different players have caught scoring passes. Atlanta has struggled to stop the pass but has been able to come up with big plays and force turnovers with a defense led by linebacker Vic Beasley, who leads the league with 14 1/2 sacks and six forced fumbles.

* Carolina’s defense has been a liability for most of the season and has been especially bad against the pass, but the team has forced eight turnovers in consecutive wins. The offense also came to life in last week’s 26-15 triumph at Washington, rolling up 438 total yards – the Panthers’ highest total since Week 2. Cam Newton is coming off one of his best passing performances of the year as he threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Redskins, while Jonathan Stewart rushed for a season-high 132 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened this NFC South battle as 2-point road favorites and that line was bet up to field goal. The total opened at 51.5 and hasn’t moved off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC South.
* Over is 12-2 in Falcons last 14 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Carolina.

Washington at Chicago Bears (+3, 47)

* Kirk Cousins (NFL second-best 4,360 passing yards) is looking to rebound from a two-turnover performance when he faces Chicago, against which he threw for 300 yards and a touchdown in Washington's 24-21 victory last season. Tight end Jordan Reed reeled in nine receptions for 120 yards and a score in that contest, but has been slowed by both an ailing left shoulder (two catches, 16 yards in last two games) and a hot temper - with the latter putting him on ice as he was ejected from Monday's game after throwing a punch. "He's such a factor in the passing game that even if he's banged up a little bit I think there's some things that he can do in the passing game that can help us," coach Jay Gruden said. Running back Robert Kelley has picked up the slack with six touchdowns in his last seven games, tying him with Chicago's Jordan Howard for the second-most by an NFL rookie this season.

* Howard amassed at least 99 yards from scrimmage in his seventh straight game on Sunday, recording his fifth touchdown in that stretch while tying a season high with four receptions in a 30-27 loss to the Packers. Quarterback Matt Barkley continued his strong audition for the likely backup position next season, tossing a career-high 362 yards with two touchdown passes - including one to Alshon Jeffery. The wideout returned from serving a four-game suspension and stepped up in the fourth quarter to cap a six-catch, 89-yard performance with a touchdown, but will likely be shadowed by cornerback Josh Norman on Saturday.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened the week as 3-point home dogs and that line was quickly bet up to 3.5, where it has held since Tuesday. The total opened at 45 and has been climbing all week to 47. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 12-2 in Redskins last 14 vs. NFC.
* Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Chicago.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+5, 43.5)

* One of the brightest spots in an otherwise disappointing season has been Philip Rivers, who ranks sixth in the league in passing yards (3,795) and fourth in touchdown tosses (29). All has not been rosy for the veteran quarterback, however, as he has thrown a league-worst 18 interceptions and committed eight fumbles. Cornerback Casey Hayward, who was the only member of the team selected for the Pro Bowl, leads the NFL with seven interceptions.

* While the team is looking to avoid making history for the wrong reason, Joe Thomas landed in the franchise's record book by being selected to appear in the Pro Bowl for the 10th time. The veteran tackle, who has earned the honor every year since joining the league in 2007, passed Jim Brown and Lou Groza (nine apiece) for the most selections in Browns history and joined Merlin Olsen (14), Mel Renfro (10), Barry Sanders (10) and Lawrence Taylor (10) as the only NFL players to make the Pro Bowl in each of their first 10 seasons. Terrelle Pryor, who has made 66 catches for 877 yards and four TDs in his first season as a receiver, is expected to play versus San Diego despite having torn ligaments in his finger.

LINE HISTORY: The winless Browns opened as 6-point pups at home and that number has been bet down a full point to 5. The total opened at 44 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Browns are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Chargers last 16 games in December.
* Under is 13-3 in Browns last 16 games in Week 16.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 43)

* Running back Adrian Peterson returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 2, but he saw sparse action (six carries, 22 yards) after Minnesota fell into a 27-point hole at halftime against Indianapolis. Peterson did not practice Wednesday due to knee/groin injuries and was unsure if he will be ready to play against Green Bay, saying he's taking things "day by day." Wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who has been limited to five receptions the past two weeks after hauling in 40 catches in the previous four games, also missed Wednesday's practice with an ailing hip. Quarterback Sam Bradford has more than one TD pass in only three of 13 games, but one was against Green Bay in his season debut. Minnesota's defense gave up 411 yards and allowed the Colts to hold the ball for 37 minutes.

* Green Bay's chances of making the playoffs appeared to be a pipe dream after surrendering 153 points during a four-game losing streak to fall to 4-6. Among the reasons for the defense's turnaround is the play of safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who intercepted a pair of passes in Sunday's 30-27 victory at Chicago to earn NFL Defensive Player of the Week honors. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the last five games, practiced fully Wednesday after sitting out all last week due to a calf injury. Converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery has provided a spark for a dormant ground game, rushing for 162 yards and two touchdowns on only 16 carries while adding four catches for 57 yards last week.

LINE HISTORY: The surging Packers opened the week as touchdown favorites at home over their struggling division rival and that line briefly drop half a point to 6.5 before returning to 7-points. The total opened at 43.5 and slipped down to 43 before returning to 43.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 16.
* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
* Under is 8-0 in Vikings last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 15-3 in Vikings last 18 vs. NFC North.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5, 43.5)

* DeMarco Murray ranks second in the NFL with 1,224 yards rushing for the league's third-ranked ground attack, which got a boost from rookie Derrick Henry, who rushed for 58 yards on nine carries with two touchdowns last week. Mariota has been solid much of the season, throwing for 3,327 yards with 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions, but he's failed to throw a scoring pass in two straight games. Defensively, the Titans are battling some serious injuries as cornerback Jason McCourty suffered a chest contusion last week, safety Da'Norris Searcy sustained a concussion and defensive end Karl Klug was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon.

* Marrone felt it necessary to announce that Blake Bortles, who was 12-for-28 for 92 yards with an interception last week, will continue as the team's starting quarterback but, like Bradley, his days at Jacksonville may be numbered. Bortles is second in the league with 16 interceptions and his poor play is one of the reasons the Jaguars are down from 14th to 27th in points per game from last season to this year. The Jaguars also rank 24th in the NFL in rushing, led by T.J. Yeldon with 460 yards and one score and Chris Ivory 394 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened the week as 4.5-point road favorites and that’s where the number currently sits. The total opened at 43.5 and like the line hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Over is 8-1-1 in Titans last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Jacksonville.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5, 44)

* New York has gone five straight games without scoring more than 17 points in regulation and is down to third-string quarterback Bryce Petty, who practiced fully Wednesday after absorbing a huge hit in last week's 34-13 drubbing by Miami. Bilal Powell is expected to get the bulk of the playing time at running back in place of an ailing Matt Forte, who suffered a torn meniscus in his knee in Week 14 and sat out practice Wednesday while dealing with a nerve problem in his shoulder. Undrafted wide receiver Robby Anderson has emerged as a favorite target of Petty with 14 catches and a pair of touchdowns on 29 targets over the past three games. The defense has provided minimal impact with the second-fewest interceptions (seven) and sacks (23) in the NFL.

* Quarterback Tom Brady downplayed a thigh injury that limited him in practice Wednesday, but New England is not downplaying the back-to-back losses to the Jets and Miami last season that cost the team home-field advantage. “Huge sense of urgency,” safety Devin McCourty said Wednesday. “It’s kind of like we were in the same position last year, same opponents last two weeks of the season. Obviously, the same goals." Brady was held to a season-low 188 yards passing and failed to throw a scoring pass for only the second time this season, but Dion Lewis supplied 95 yards rushing on 18 carries. New England is permitting a league-low 16.6 points per game and ranks fourth in the league against the run with an average of 87.9 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened this AFC East matchup as massive 16.5-point home favorites and that’s where they currently sit. The total opened at 43.5 and has yet to move off of that number as well. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Jets last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Jets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-3.5, 53)

* Frank Gore is having another strong season as he is 109 rushing yards away from reaching 1,000 for the ninth time in his 12-year career and 58 scrimmage yards shy of passing Curtis Martin, Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders to become the first player in NFL history with at least 1,200 in 11 consecutive seasons. The 33-year-old product of Miami also needs 201 scrimmage yards to overtake Thurman Thomas (16,532) for ninth place on the all-time list. T.Y. Hilton, who along with punter Pat McAfee was selected to the Pro Bowl, enters Week 16 five receiving yards behind Atlanta's Julio Jones (1,253) for the league lead.

* Oakland had a league-high seven players selected for the Pro Bowl, with five of them chosen to start the contest. One of those is Amari Cooper, who - along with fellow receiver Michael Crabtree (finger) - was limited in Wednesday's practice due to a shoulder issue. Guard Kelechi Osemele, who was one of the team's three offensive linemen selected as starters, did not participate in practice on Wednesday due to an ankle injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened the week as 4-point home favorites and dropped half-point early in the week and that number has held firm the remainder of the week. The total opened at 53 and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
* Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games in Week 16.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52)

* Tampa Bay is closing in on its first playoff berth since 2007 thanks to the growth of quarterback Jameis Winston and an opportunistic defense. Winston and Mike Evans (84 receptions, 1,159 yards, 10 touchdowns) have developed into a dynamic combination, and the former has found a new red-zone target in Cameron Brate, who is tied for the NFL lead among tight ends with seven TD catches. The Buccaneers have had a tough time stopping the run, but they have forced 26 turnovers overall – third-most in the league – and recorded at least one takeaway in 10 straight games.

* New Orleans has the league’s most productive offense behind veteran quarterback Drew Brees, who leads the NFL in passing yards (4,559) and touchdowns (34) after guiding the team to a 48-41 shootout win at Arizona last week. The Saints have struggled on the other side of the ball, ranking 30th in scoring defense and 26th in total defense. The defensive unit has improved in the second half of the season, however, holding three of its last five opponents under 300 total yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened this NFC South matchup as field goal favorites and that number held until Friday, but since then has been bet up to 3.5. The total opened at 52.5 and currently sits at 52. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.
* Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Under is 7-0 in Saints last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 43)

* The bright spot in an otherwise down campaign for Arizona is running back David Johnson, who set an NFL record with 14 straight games of 100 or more yards from scrimmage to start the season and was named to his first Pro Bowl this week. Johnson, who leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,938 and has scored 17 touchdowns so far, piled up 113 rushing yards and caught eight passes for 58 yards in the first meeting with Seattle. "There is nobody better than he is," wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who will make his 10th Pro Bowl appearance, told reporters of Johnson. "He's playing at the highest level. He does it in the run game, the pass game, great pass protector as well. The guy can do it all. It's a real joy and a pleasure to be able to watch a guy do something like that and be his teammate."

* Inconsistency plagued Seattle for most of the season, but the team is hoping to build some stability over the last two games. "The good part about it is that here we have a couple more games left, and we continue to work at it and see if we can really develop some momentum and some better play and already know that you're going," coach Pete Carroll told reporters. "I'm anxious to see how we do that." A good place to start is with quarterback Russell Wilson, who has nine TD passes and three interceptions in seven home games but seven scores and eight picks on the road - including a disastrous five-interception outing at Green Bay in Week 14.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened this NFC West matchup as 7.5-point home favorites and that number was quickly bet up to 9 before fading back to the opening number late in the week. The total opened at 43.5 and was bet down to 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 vs. NFC West.
* Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 vs. NFC West.
* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 39.5)

* Carlos Hyde needs 50 yards to reach 1,000 for the season but the veteran back hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 5. San Francisco had no players selected to the Pro Bowl, the first time that's happened since 2005, and they lost five players to injury against the Falcons. The 49ers' defense is near historically bad, allowing 434 points and an average of 176.3 yards rushing per contest. San Francisco has yielded at least three touchdowns in every game except the season opener.

* Goff practiced in full on Tuesday and Fassel said "we anticipate having him" Saturday. Sean Mannion was promoted to second-string quarterback for the Rams and would get the start if Goff doesn't clear the concussion protocol. The Rams are last in the NFL in scoring, averaging 14.1 points, and running back Todd Gurley has struggled throughout the campaign with 778 yards and an average of just 3.2 yards a carry. Gurley should have some success against a team that has allowed an average of 5.0 yards a carry to opposing backs with 22 touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened the week as field goal home favorites and that number has been climbing all week reaching the current number of 5 by Friday afternoon. The total opened at 41 and has been bet down to 39.5 Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.
* Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
* Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games on grass.
* Under is 7-0 in Rams last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 16 of the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Patriots (430) -16.5- W

5) Lions (433) +7

4) Ravens (456) +5.5

3) Raiders (501) -3.5- W

2) Buccaneers (593) +3- L

1) Steelers (603) -5.5

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Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Christmas Eve

Redskins 41, Bears 21— Washington stayed alive in playoff race by picking off five passes and scoring five TDs on 10 drives, converting 8-13 on 3rd down. Very hard to lose an NFL game with a +5 turnover ratio. Redskins host the Giants next week; they’ll need to win and Green Bay to lose its game with Detroit.

Dolphins 34, Bills 31 OT— Miami gave up 589 yards on 90 plays and won; in two games vs Buffalo this season, Dolphins ran ball for 517 yards in sweeping pair of 3-point games. Kicker Franks (from RPI, an engineering/hockey school in Troy, NY) drilled a 55-yard FG with 0:06 to force OT, then ended game with 27-yard FG with 0:47 left in OT. Looks like Miami is going to make playoffs for first time since ’08, but they do host New England next week. Over is 12-2 in last fourteen Buffalo games.

Falcons 33, Panthers 16— Exhibit A why Kyle Shanahan should be the Rams’ next coach; in their last five games, on their first drive of the game, Atlanta has run 36 plays for 286 yards and FIVE TD’s. He’s made Matt Ryan a much better quarterback.

Atlanta jumps into the #2 seed in the NFC, with Seattle losing Sunday. That comes with a week off so it is a big deal.

NFL refs have called three roughing/passer penalties on Carolina opponents this year; they’ve called 13 on New Orleans’ opponents. I’m guessing Cam Newton’s dad knows that stat.

Packers 38, Vikings 25— Green Bay won its last five games, can win NFC North if it wins at Detroit next week; Pack is +12 in turnovers in its last three games. Minnesota is now 2-8 in its last ten games after a 5-0 start. Over is 7-2 in last nine Green Bay games. Three of Packers’ five TD drives were less than 60 yards. It was 37 degrees at kickoff in Green Bay, oddly warm for Christmas Eve.

Patriots 41, Jets 3— Sitting in the sportsbook all day watching games is great fun; group of guys near me bet the Jets (+24) in a teaser, because “……even if they’re way behind at the end they can still cover.” That sounded a lot better at 9:55am than it did at halftime, when New England led 27-0. Patriots won 21 of the 29 third down plays in the game.

Bryce Petty got KO’d before he completed a pass. Good news for Jets; apparently Todd Bowles only had kidney stones, so he made it to Foxboro for the game and will be fine.

Jaguars 38, Titans 17— Not only did Tennessee lose when they were tied for first in AFC South, they lost QB Mariota (broken leg). Jacksonville broke its 9-game losing streak, but they’ve trailed at halftime in only one of last six games- they have some potential. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 16-11 vs spread in divisional games this season. Over is 7-3 in Jaguars’ last ten games.

Browns 20, Chargers 17— Cleveland blocked a last-second FG to seal its first win of the year. This was fifth game this season Browns led at halftime. Last five times they had the ball, San Diego ran 23 plays for 23 yards and zero points. Hard to win that way.

As for San Diego, they’re probably moving to LA next season, they’re probably going to have a new coach and with Philip Rivers closer to 40 years old than 30, they might rebuild with a young QB too. Under is 6-1 in Browns’ last seven games, 4-0-1 in Chargers’ last five games.

Raiders 33, Colts 25— It can go rotten so quickly; Derek Carr broke his leg near the end of this game when the outcome was pretty much already decided- Raiders were up 33-14 when he got hurt. Oakland ran ball for 210 yards, threw for 249; they still lead AFC West but now Matt McGloin is the starter going forward. Indy is 0-5-1 vs spread in games following a win; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 9-15 vs spread this season.

49ers 22, Rams 21— So the early games are almost all over and I’m waiting for the Ram game to start; this middle-aged Asian lady sits next to me in the sportsbook, whips out a thick wad of $100 bills and counts out $7,000 in cash. I know, I counted along with her.

Then she tells me how if the Falcons and Miami win their games, she will cash another $4,500 (she showed me those two tickets).

When Miami won, I asked her if she wanted to buy me dinner (she didn’t).

I asked her who her favorite NFL team was and she told me this: “I don’t have a favorite team; you have a favorite, you lose. I play to gamble.” And with that, she was gone. A fine woman.

Cardinals 34, Seahawks 31 OT— Seattle drops out of the #2 seed in NFC- both their games with Arizona this season went OT. Home team is now 1-6-1 in last eight series games, with Arizona winning three of last four visits here. Last six Redbird games went over total.

Seattle is a legitimately strange team; they’re 9-5-1 but they split with the Rams, went 0-1-1 vs Arizona, they lost to the Saints/Bucs- none of those teams are going to the playoffs.

Saints 31, Buccaneers 24— Tampa Bay was -2 in turnovers; so far this week, teams that were -2 or worse in turnovers are 0-7 vs spread. This is why handicapping can be so difficult; there is no way to accurately predict the bounce of an oblong ball.

Green Bay assumes lead for last Wild Card spot with this result. Tampa Bay’s program has progressed in Dirk Koetter’s first year as head coach, but it could’ve been a lot better. As for the Saints, they could look a lot different next year, with Sean Payton rumored to be a candidate in Los Angeles and Drew Brees advancing in age.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 25

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Christmas Afternoon Football betting preview: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
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Something's gotta give: The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC North opponents, while the Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 overall.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 44)

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have given football fans quite the gift with their intense rivalry, but the AFC North rivals are in line to give themselves an impressive present on Christmas Day with a victory at the other's expense. Pittsburgh can clinch the division with a victory on Sunday at Heinz Field while Baltimore can claim the AFC North title with wins in its final two games.

While the Steelers have won five in a row overall to claim a one-game edge in the standings over the Ravens, Baltimore has emerged victorious in four straight in the series - including a 21-14 triumph on Nov. 6. Mike Wallace reeled in a 95-yard touchdown reception in that tilt and was quick to gift-wrap bulletin-board material this week by telling his former Pittsburgh teammates, "Just because I tell you Merry Christmas doesn't mean I wouldn't score a touchdown on you. I can tell you Merry Christmas on the way to the end zone." Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger passed and rushed for a score in the first meeting with Baltimore and connected with Eli Rogers in the fourth quarter of a 24-20 victory over Cincinnati on Sunday. Six field goals by kicker Chris Boswell packed a punch against the Bengals, who may have the final say of who wins this division when they host the Ravens in a key Week 17 showdown on New Year's Day.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-2) - Steelers (-5) + home field (-3) = Steelers -4

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North matchup favoured by 4-points at home and that line has been growing all week to the current number of 6. The total opened at 44.5 and briefly dropped to 44 before returning to 44.5. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Christmas day at Heinz Field is intervals of cloud and sun and temperatures in the mid-40’s at kickoff and winds out of the east at 6 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Pittsburgh lost the earlier meeting 21-14 at Baltimore on November 6th, but the Steelers are now a healthier team. That earlier loss came during a 0-4 SU/ATS losing streak, but the Steelers have since gone 5-0 SU/ATS in their past five games. This has always been a competitive divisional series with 6 of the past 10 meetings being decided by a 3-point margin or less.”

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Steelers are seeing 57 percent of the total number tickets, while the Ravens are seeing 54 percent of the total dollars wagered."

INJURY REPORT:

Baltimore - WR Steve Smith (wide receiver, thigh), TE Crockett Gillmore (probable, thigh), DE Brent Urban (questionable, illness), LB Kamalei Correa (questionable, ribs), DB Anthony Levine Sr. (questionable, toe), G Alex Lewis (questionable, ankle), RB Javorius Allen (questionable, personal), G Jeremy Zuttah (questionable, undisclosed), CB Jimmy Smith (doubtful, ankle)

Pittsburgh - RB DeAngelo Williams (probable, knee), CB Justin Gilbert (questionable, illness), LB Anthony Chickillo (questionable, ankle), S Shamarko Thomas (questionable, concussion), DE Ricardo Mathews (questionable, ankle), DE Stephon Tuitt (doubtful, leg), WR Sammie Coates (doubtful, hamstring), TE Ladarius Green (doubtful, concussion).

ABOUT THE RAVENS (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS, 6-7-1 OU): Joe Flacco (career-best 374 completions this season) threw two touchdown passes on Sunday as Baltimore posted its fifth win in seven outings with a 27-26 victory over Philadelphia. The 31-year-old Flacco owns a 5-3 mark at Heinz Field since the beginning of 2010 but has struggled on the road this season, losing his last four away from home and tossing seven interceptions in six games. Terrance West rolled up 122 yards from scrimmage (77 rushing, 45 receiving) versus the Eagles, but was limited to just 21 yards on 15 carries in last month's meeting with Pittsburgh's fifth-ranked run defense (89.1). Linebacker Zachary Orr recorded 10 of his AFC third-best 122 tackles in the first encounter with the Steelers.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 4-10 OU): Le'Veon Bell leads the NFL with 158.8 yards from scrimmage per game and his 1,146 rushing yards are third-best in the league despite serving a three-game suspension to begin the season. The electric Bell, however, was limited to 32 yards rushing against Baltimore's second-ranked run defense (82.1) in the first meeting. Wideout Antonio Brown found the end zone against the Ravens and his 11 touchdowns this season and 96 catches are second-best in the league. Linebacker Lawrence Timmons, who has a team-leading 98 tackles, has 10-plus tackles in five of the last seven encounters with Baltimore.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC North.
* Ravens are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 vs. AFC North.
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Steelers are picking up 51 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 58 percent of the totals wagers.


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NFL

Sunday, December 25

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Christmas Night Football betting preview: Denver at Kansas City
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Road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between the Chiefs and Broncos. Denver is curretly a 3-point road dog.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 41.5)

After last week's loss to New England, the Denver Broncos need to win their final two games to have a hope of defending their Super Bowl title. The Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs, whose playoff hopes also absorbed a hit last week with 19-17 loss on a last-second field goal to Tennessee, on Sunday night.

The Broncos started the season 4-0, but have since lost six of 10 and have gone 1-3 since posting a respectable 7-3 mark. "The only playoff scenario I know is that if we don’t win, we get no chance," Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak told reporters earlier in the week. Actually that's not the case as Denver could still earn a playoff berth with a loss and miss the playoffs altogether with two more wins, a scenario that will be much clearer by the time their late Christmas Day game kicks off. Kansas City can clinch a playoff spot with a win or a tie against the Broncos or if the Ravens lose or tie.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-1) - Chiefs (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 4-point home favorites and that number has faded half-point to 3.5. The total opened at 39 and has been bet down one full point to the current number of 37. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Arrowhead Stadium is mostly cloudy skies with a 30 percent chance of showers and temperatures in the mid-50’s. There will be strong winds out of the southwest 10-20 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “There will be a lot in the line in the Broncos-Chiefs clash this Sunday with Kansas City one game back of Oakland in the AFC WFC while Denver is battling for a coveted spot in the Wild Card chase. The Broncos will hope their mastery on the division road (15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS last seventeen AFC West away games) continues, whereas the Chiefs will rely on the success they’ve enjoyed at Arrowhead Stadium in games throughout December (24-10 SU and 20-13-1 ATS since 1997). Not surprise if the last team that scores wins this game.”

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened Kansas City as a 4.5-point favourite but took sharp Denver action on that number pushing us to Chiefs -3.5 where we currently sit with solid two way action. Kansas City is getting 58 percent of that action to cover."

INJURY REPORT:

Denver - QB Trevor Siemian (probable, foot), DE Derek Wolfe (questionable, neck), C Matt Paradis (questionable, hip), DE Jared Crick (questionable, ribs), LB Demarcus Ware (questionable, neck), TE Virgil Green (questionable, concussion), TE A.J. Derby (out, concussion), S T.J. Ward (out, concussion), RB C.J. Anderson (out for season, knee)

Kansas City - LB Justin March (questionable, hand), LB Tampa Hali (questionable, knee), LB Justin Houston (questionable, knee), TE Demetrius Harris (questionable, foot), DB Phillip Gaines (questionable, knee), DL Kendall Reyes (questionable, wrist)

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-6 SU, 8-6 ATS, 6-8 OU): Trevor Siemien's up-and-down campaign continued last week when he completed 25-of-40 throws for 282 yards as Denver was kept out of the end zone for the first time all season in the 16-3 defeat. The Broncos have virtually abandoned their ground game, which has fallen to 27th in the league (91.3 yards a game), as newly-acquired Justin Forsett led the team in rushing with 37 yards on 10 carries against the Patriots. Denver's defense remains strong as it ranks first in passing defense (183 yards a game), second in total defense and fourth in the NFL in points allowed (18.4).

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS, 4-10 OU): With a chance to clinch a playoff berth in his grasp last week, Chiefs coach Andy Reid pushed all the wrong buttons. Reid watched his team fail to score on a fourth-and-goal try from the 1-yard line, saw Alex Smith throw an interception in the end zone late in the third quarter, and then called a timeout only to let Ryan Succop get another chance to boot what proved to be a 53-yard field goal in the game's final seconds. The Chiefs have won the past two games in this series led by all-purpose threat Tyreek Hill, who rushed for a score, caught a touchdown pass and returned a kick 87 yards for another score in Kansas City’s 30-27 overtime victory over the Broncos on Nov. 27.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Chiefs are getting 67 percent of the wagers from Covers users and the over is getting 54 percent of the Over/Under action.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 26

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Lions at Cowboys
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Even with nothing to play for, the Cowboys are currently 6.5-point home fave

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 45)

Christmas came early for the Dallas Cowboys, who clinched the NFC East title and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs before taking the field in Week 16. With the New York Giants losing to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night, it secured the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye for Dallas, which will host the Detroit Lions on Monday night.

While the Cowboys have nothing for which to play, the stakes remain plenty high for the NFC North-leading Lions, who could have a playoff berth wrapped by before Monday night's kickoff. Detroit is trying to stave off resurgent Green Bay, holding a one-game lead over the Packers with a potential winner-take-all showdown looming in Week 17. Dallas coach Jason Garrett and Lions counterpart Jim Caldwell both have said they do not plan on resting their starters regardless of the circumstances, and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones expounded on the thought process in a radio interview Friday. "I know that in our (2007) season here with Wade Phillips, we had a great season and then we turned around and got into the playoffs and rested pretty good the last ballgame," Jones said. "And we ended up losing the first playoff game that we had with home-field bye all the way through."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Cowboys as 7.5-point home favorites, but since then the number has bounced back and forth between -7 and -6.5, where it currently sits. The total hit the board at 41.5 and has been bet all the way up to the current number of 45. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Lions (-0.5) - Cowboys (-5) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -7.5

WHAT SHARPS SAY: “Both team would be in the postseason if the season were to start today. That makes this a game that figures to played with playoff intensity. The Cowboys will look to get QB Dak Prescott back on track, with Tony Romo itching at the chance to enter this contest. With this being Dallas’ fifth straight primetime appearance (0-4 ATS the previous four), look for defensive war.”

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Trap game here, with Dallas already having home field for the playoffs clinched. We had Dallas as -7 point favs before the Thursday night game and have since moved to Lions +6.5 with the Lions getting over 75% of the action to Cover. I suspect this line will come down even more the closer we get to game time."

WEATHER REPORT: N/A.

INJURY REPORT:

Lions - QB M. Stafford (probable Monday, finger), DE Z. Asah (questionable Monday, shoulder), S R. Bush (questionable Monday, back), LB D. Levy (questionable Monday, knee), DT H. Ngata (questionable Monday, quadricep), RB A. Abdullah (questionable Monday, foot) RB T. Riddick (doubtful Monday, wrist), C T. Swanson (doubtful Monday, concussion), CB D. Slay (doubtful Monday, hamstring).

Cowboys - D. Bryant (probable Monday, back), DT T. Crawford (questionable Monday, shoulder), OT T. Smith (questionable Monday, back), DE J. Crawford (questionable Monday, foot), LB S. Lee (questionable Monday, knee), S J. Wilcox (questionable Monday, thigh), DE D. Lawrence (questionable Monday, back), DL C. Thornton (questionable Monday, ankle), LB J. Durant (questionable Monday, elbow), DE B. Mayowa (questionable Monday, undisclosed), OL L. Collins (questionable Monday, toe).

ABOUT THE LIONS (9-5, 8-6 ATS, 4-10, O/U): Detroit is coming off its lowest offensive output of the season in a 17-6 loss to the New York Giants last weekend, which snapped a five-game winning streak. "Often times we've won several games in a row. We had one bump in the road," Caldwell said of any lasting effect the loss to the Giants may have on his team, which last won a division title in 1993. "A lot of teams have that. It's what you do after that is what counts." The Lions feature one of the league's least productive ground games, ranking 30th overall at 81.7 yards per game, and could again be without leading rusher Theo Riddick (wrist), who also is third on the team with 53 receptions but did not practice Friday. Detroit's defense has been sturdy against the run (98.9 yards allowed), but cornerback Darius Slay (hamstring) also did not practice Friday

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (12-2, 9-5 ATS, 5-9 O/U): The natural question among Dallas followers is whether the team will rest rookie quarterback Dak Prescott in one of the final two games and get Tony Romo on the field. "I'm not going to answer you because I don't want to get anything going at all," Jones said. "I have to pinch myself to think about where we are at the quarterback position knowing how critical a setback or an injury is to any position. But especially at that position as we look to this playoff, that would be very near the top of my list what we've got at the position." Rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott could be in line for some rest, leading the league with 1,551 rushing yards -- more than 300 ahead of runner-up DeMarco Murray. Linebacker Randy Gregory, back from serving two drug-related suspensions, is expected to make his season debut against Detroit.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six Monday games.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 8-0 in Lions' last eight games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Cowboys' last 7 games in December.

CONSENSUS: With the Lions having a little more to play for than the Cowboys, 61 percent of wagers are backing Detroit. As for the total, a whopping 71 percent of wagers are on the Over 45.


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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 16 of the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Patriots (430) -16.5- W

5) Lions (433) +7

4) Ravens (456) +5.5- W

3) Raiders (501) -3.5- W

2) Buccaneers (593) +3- L

1) Steelers (603) -5.5- L