NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Thursday, December 22 - Monday, December 26)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, December 22 - Monday, December 26

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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NFL Matchups

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Ravens at Steelers highlights Week 16

"The Steelers have been attracting so much public action that we had to factor that into our opening number."

Bettors will hope to stuff their stockings with winnings from the Week 16 NFL slate. We talk with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag., about four key games this Christmas week.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

Pittsburgh is on a five-game SU and ATS surge that has put it atop the AFC North heading into this pivotal contest. The Steelers (9-5 SU and ATS) rallied from a 17-3 deficit at Cincinnati on Sunday to snare a 24-20 victory as a 3-point favorite.

Baltimore (8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS) edged Philadelphia 27-26 when the Eagles, after scoring a last-seconds touchdown, opted to go for the 2-point conversion and failed.
The Ravens, who beat Pittsburgh on Nov. 6, can reclaim first place – based on tiebreakers – with a road win this week, but are ostensibly in a must-win situation.

“Massive game for both teams, essentially an elimination game for the Ravens,” Childs said. “Historically, these games have always been competitive and go down to the wire. That said, the Steelers have been attracting so much public action that we had to factor that into our opening number.

“We have the Steelers a good 2 points higher in our power ratings. Throw in home field, and we thought of an opening number of 5. But knowing the history of this series, we felt 5 was just too much and decided to open at 4.5, which is our current number. So far, we’re seeing a bit more Ravens money than Steelers, but nothing major and certainly not enough to move the number.”

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

With two victories over Oakland this season, Kansas City had control of the AFC West, but gave away all that leverage in Week 15. The Chiefs (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) blew a 14-0 first-quarter lead against Tennessee, netting just a field goal the rest of the way and losing on a last-second field goal 19-17 laying 6 points at home.

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver (8-6 SU and ATS) is in a very precarious spot to return to the playoffs. The Broncos had two key turnovers that turned into 10 New England points Sunday in a 16-3 home loss as a 3-point pup. So Denver, which fell at home to K.C. 30-27 in overtime in Week 12, can’t take a loss in this Christmas night showdown.

“Both teams coming off tough losses, and the Broncos now have a major uphill battle to make the playoffs. It’s a must-win for them, but they simple cannot move the ball on offense,” Childs said. “They’ve scored just 13 points over their past two games, and things don’t get easier going into Kansas City with an offense that can’t run the ball. It’s tough to win on the road in the NFL with no running game.

“We have the Chiefs 2 points higher in our ratings, and we give the Chiefs 3.5 points for home field. We only give more than 3 points for home field on a handful of teams, such as the Seahawks and Chiefs. So our raw number was 5.5 points, but with all the anti-Broncos money we just booked in their game against the Pats, we wanted to open a touch high, so we opened at 6. We did take very sharp action on the Broncos +6, with the public supporting them too, so we moved straight from 6 to 5 on the Chiefs.”

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys, no line

Detroit has arguably been the biggest surprise of the season and is still atop the NFC North, but has some work to do to stay there after a lackluster Week 15 effort. The Lions (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) lost to the New York Giants 17-6 as a 4-point road pup, ending a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).

Dallas (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) will look to nail down home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a Week 16 win. The Cowboys rebounded from a Week 14 loss at the New York Giants – their first setback since falling to the Giants in Week 1 – by fending off Tampa Bay 26-20 Sunday night as a 6.5-point chalk.

“With the Cowboys playing Sunday night, no line yet,” Childs said, noting Sportsbook.ag will post the number Monday. “The preliminary line on them is about 7, maybe 7.5.”

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-7)

A month ago, Green Bay was reeling at 4-6 SU. Now, the Packers are on a 4-0 SU run (3-1 ATS) and back in the NFC North hunt. Green Bay (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) let a 27-10 lead at Chicago melt away in frigid temperatures Sunday, but a big long ball from Aaron Rodgers late in the game led to a field goal that secured a 30-27 victory as a 4.5-point fave.

Meanwhile, Minnesota (7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS) continued to watch its playoff hopes fade away. The Vikings, who started the season 5-0 SU and ATS, got hammered at home Sunday by Indianapolis, 34-6 giving 5 points.

“The Vikings are another team that just can’t move the ball on offense. They can’t run the ball worth a lick, and teams that can’t run don’t win on the road in the NFL,” Childs said. “The Packers have been a monster public team the last few weeks, but they didn’t cash today, which might take some of the luster off them going forward. But we have to question the Vikes’ motivation against the Packers, who have to win if they want to win their division and continue their road to the playoffs.

“We have the Packers a solid 3.5 points higher in our ratings over the Vikings. Tack on 3 points for home field, and our raw number was 6.5, but with the big motivation edge going to the Packers, we decided to open on the key number of 7 and see what happens. So far, we’ve seen decent two-way action at that number, and we haven’t moved off it.”

[Udog]

According to reports the Texans are expected to start QB Tom Savage over Brock Osweiler on Saturday vs Bengals.
Current line: HOU -2.5

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Thursday, December 22

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NY GIANTS (10 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 9) - 12/22/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, December 24

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WASHINGTON (7 - 5 - 1) at CHICAGO (3 - 11) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 58-90 ATS (-41.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
CHICAGO is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (9 - 5) at BUFFALO (7 - 7) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 3-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (8 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 8) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (9 - 5) at CAROLINA (5 - 8) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (7 - 7) at GREEN BAY (8 - 6) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 104-77 ATS (+19.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 179-127 ATS (+39.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 64-38 ATS (+22.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (4 - 10) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 2) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 60-39 ATS (+17.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 58-36 ATS (+18.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NY JETS are 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
NY JETS are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (8 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 12) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 28-49 ATS (-25.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
TENNESSEE is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (5 - 9) at CLEVELAND (0 - 14) - 12/24/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 7) at OAKLAND (11 - 3) - 12/24/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 72-101 ATS (-39.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 32-58 ATS (-31.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 31-55 ATS (-29.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 13) at LA RAMS (4 - 10) - 12/24/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 175-222 ATS (-69.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-222 ATS (-69.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-174 ATS (-65.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-88 ATS (-39.8 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (9 - 4 - 1) - 12/24/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 66-36 ATS (+26.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-1 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (5 - 8 - 1) at HOUSTON (8 - 6) - 12/24/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
HOUSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 25

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BALTIMORE (8 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (9 - 5) - 12/25/2016, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 100-69 ATS (+24.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 87-61 ATS (+19.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 97-71 ATS (+18.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 4-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (8 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 4) - 12/25/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 26

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DETROIT (9 - 5) at DALLAS (12 - 2) - 12/26/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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[Udog]

NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 22

8:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games


Saturday, December 24

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 4-7-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New England is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing NY Jets

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CHICAGO
Washington is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 1-4-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CLEVELAND
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing San Diego
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Atlanta's last 21 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games on the road
Green Bay is 19-5 SU in its last 24 games at home
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami

4:05 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

4:25 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

4:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Arizona

4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LOS ANGELES
San Francisco is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games
Cincinnati is 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games


Sunday, December 25

4:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 10 games


Monday, December 26

8:30 PM
DETROIT vs. DALLAS
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games at home


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[Udog]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 16 NFL lines are going to move

The Jags’ underperforming offense combined with the Titans’ still-suspect offense make this one an attractive option for under players.

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Philadelphia (+2.5) (Thursday)

Never get in the way of a runaway train, and that’s pretty much the Eagles’ problem at this point of the season. Five straight losses (and 7 in the last 8), combined with solid seasons from Dallas and the Giants, have relegated Philadelphia to Baltic Ave. status in the NFC East. By contrast, the Giants are on one of their don’t-you-dare-forget-us late-season rolls and have an outside shot at winning the division and actually robbing the Cowboys of the overall No. 1 playoff seed in the conference. With defense as its calling card, New York has won 8 of 9 and is crushing it defensively with the league’s third-best defense in points allowed (17.9/game). The game opened at 3, then surprisingly moved to 2.5 – a gift for NY backers.

Game to wait on

San Diego at Cleveland (+6) (Saturday)

San Diego’s ownership may be talking about turning out the lights and moving, but the Chargers showed some life in an overtime loss to Oakland last Sunday. San Diego’s reward was a trip to Cleveland, where the Browns’ road to nowhere season plays out its string. More amazing than Cleveland’s 0-14 SU record is the fact that the Brownies have not had a single home cover (0-7) this season. Browns fans are so upset that they have been campaigning for the league to not televise Cleveland games, and instead show Steelers games. Pretty bad. This line may not be done moving, so there’s no harm in holding off.

Total to watch

Tennessee at Jacksonville (44) (Saturday)

The AFC South is fertile ground for any team that can win even two games in a row, and the Titans have surprised everyone with three straight – including stunning back-to-back victories over Denver and Kansas City. And Tennessee has been doing it without putting up a ton of points – the Titans had a total of only 32 in the Broncos/Chiefs parlay. You have to wonder how much offensive game-planning is going on in Jacksonville, where a fed-up management pulled the plug on coach Gus Bradley and gave the keys to Doug Marrone. J-Ville was a chic pick to make some noise in the wide-open South, but never got any traction. The Jags’ underperforming offense combined with the Titans’ still-suspect offense make this one an attractive option for under players.

[Udog]

NFL Week 16 lines that make you go hmmm...

Are books putting too much weight in the Ravens-Steelers rivalry and not focusing on how those teams are currently playing? Our Vegas oddsmaker thinks so.

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 16:

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+2, 41.5)

Philadelphia has now lost five straight heading into Week 16 and it’s the defense which has been particularly poor. Allowing 26, 27, 32, 27 and 27 points while averaging 18 points per game isn’t such a difficult trend to spot. Philadelphia, now out of the playoffs, still will be incentivized to play somewhat against an arch-rival and being at home.

The Giants are quietly having a banner year with 10 wins under their belt. New York is a winner of two straight and eight of nine games heading into play, and the defense has been sensational. In four wins in their past five games, the G-Men have held its opponents to 16, 13, 7 and six points. It’s hard not to think that this spread could easily be four or higher. If the bookmakers are giving you an obvious play, take it and head to the cashier.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 42)

I’m not quite sure Buffalo should be the favorite. Buffalo’s playoff outlook is rather bleak, to say the least, which doesn’t really conjure up a good reason to be playing with a whole lot of spirit.

Sure, historically speaking, the Bills would love to launch a salvo at one of their arch rivals. But Miami is in the thick of the playoff hunt, one game ahead of Baltimore, Tennessee and Denver. During any time of the year, we like to side with the team with the most incentive to play. What was considered a surprise upset earlier in the year in Miami doesn’t really look like it now as we see how the season panned out.

This is the 2016 season for Miami. A loss here would leave the Fins pinning their hopes on defeating the New England Patriots on the final weekend of the schedule. This game here affords them a little gap between the rest no matter what they do.

I had this game Miami -1.5 which truly scares me how off I am. But since we’re being given the better team with +3.5 (and I see a +4 out there as well), it might be worth a roll the dice with the Dolphins in Week 15.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+6.5, 44)

Now it comes down to a test of wills between a team that needs a win and a team that doesn’t want to be the team to lose to them.

You can say the Browns showed some life against Buffalo but they still lost by 20 points. In fact, Cleveland has lost by an average of 13.5 points per game all season. The Browns haven’t been as close as 6.5 for six consecutive games. Now you can play the “due factor” but that’s not going to get you too far. Particularly since they haven’t won a game in over a year.

The Chargers have been more than disappointing - again. But truly, take a look at the teams they have played the past 10 games. That’s a tough schedule. They know they don’t want to be the “it” team and lose to the Browns. We know they’re thinking that too. Being that this may be the second last game the Chargers will be known as San Diego’s team, we think the Bolts will be more than up for this one.

I had this +7.5, so I like what I see out there. We know we have the better team. We know the spread is more than attainable. Maybe this is the best chance the Browns have to win a game this season since they play at Pittsburgh in the last game of the year. But they’ve had chances all year and still haven’t won. We also don’t like the chances of RG3 having two good games in a row. He’s proven he can’t do that anymore.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 44)

It’s becoming obvious that Pittsburgh is the team most likely to challenge the Patriots in a final conference tilt. Their plus-65 scoring difference is second to the Patriots in the AFC. I made this line closer to -6.5 to -7 Even.

Pittsburgh has won five in a row heading into this clash and most assuredly will want to seek a little revenge for its loss in Baltimore earlier this season. By no means are the Steelers set in the playoffs. Incentive will be high and their momentum is heavily into the swing of things heading to the postseason.

Baltimore has lost four in a row on the road with margins of seven, 10 and eight the past three. With a few +4.5 lines still out there, you’ll want to pick that off right now. There won’t be any left by the weekend for sure. The Steelers are allowing only 14 points per game during their current streak and scoring over 25 in those same games.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 16 sneaking up on us:

— Cleveland is 1-12-1 vs spread in its last fourteen games.

— Steelers are 10-3 in last thirteen games as a home favorite.

— Atlanta is 8-17 in its last 25 games as a favorite.

— New England covered 10 of its last 13 games.

— Rams are 1-7-2 vs spread in last 10 games; 49ers are 2-11 in last 13.

— Chiefs covered twice in their last ten home games.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Bottom 4, top 9 in the NFL

32) Browns— Have shot at their first win when the warm weather Chargers visit Lake Erie on Christmas Eve.

31) 49ers— Lost their last 13 games, but play team they got their only win against this week, when they visit Los Angeles. Rams are actually favored to win a game.

30) Jaguars— They can’t even fire their coach right; word got out that they canned Gus Bradley before the team plane took off from Houston. Apparently the flight home was fairly awkward.

29) Rams– Good chance for Goff’s first career win this week.

9) Packers— They’ve had Favre/Rodgers at QB for the last 25 years; shouldn’t they have won more than two Super Bowls?

8) Dolphins— Other than a healthy Tony Romo, Matt Moore is the best backup QB in the NFL and now Miami fans are going to find that out. Only time Dolphins made playoffs in last 14 years was the year Brady tore up his knee in Week 1 and missed the rest of that year.

7) Seahawks— Their starting RT was a basketball player at Western Kentucky who played about one half of one college football game.

6) Falcons— They just pounded the dregs of the NFL, now they step up in class this week and have a rematch with the Panthers, who are playing on a very short week.

T4) Raiders/Chiefs— Oakland has the better record but the Chiefs beat them twice. Not fond of KC blowing two games at home in the last month; they need to be better in the red zone.

3) Giants— Not a huge fan of theirs but they win every week and that is what counts. This is where I tell you that the NFL should take radios out of players’ helmets and let the QB’s call their own damn plays- thats why you prepare for six days to play on Sunday. NFL would have a way better product if they let Game Day be the Players’ Day.

2) Cowboys— Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen is being mentioned for the Rams’ HC job, in large part because he was Dak Prescott’s college coach. I can think of worse things.

1— Patriots— What happens when a big time college QB refuses to play in a bowl game so he doesn’t get hurt and ruin his draft prospects? I’m thinking if a QB did that it would hurt his stock a lot, since the QB is a team leader and the captain doesn’t desert his ship, even if it is sinking.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Thursday, December 22

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Game 101-102
December 22, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
131.607
Philadelphia
135.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+3); Over


Saturday, December 24

Cincinnati @ Houston

Game 125-126
December 24, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
133.733
Houston
131.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 2 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+2); Over

Arizona @ Seattle

Game 123-124
December 24, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
133.346
Seattle
135.461
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 8
43
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+8); Under

San Francisco @ Los Angeles

Game 121-122
December 24, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
116.699
Los Angeles
124.856
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 8
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 3 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(-3 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Oakland

Game 119-120
December 24, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
137.373
Oakland
135.554
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+3 1/2); Over

San Diego @ Cleveland

Game 117-118
December 24, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
124.314
Cleveland
125.116
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 6 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+6 1/2); Over

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Game 115-116
December 24, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
134.914
Jacksonville
126.939
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 8
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 5
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-5); Under

NY Jets @ New England

Game 113-114
December 24, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
119.141
New England
143.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 24 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 16 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-16 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Game 111-112
December 24, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
125.288
Green Bay
138.688
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 13 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Over

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 109-110
December 24, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
141.235
Carolina
136.393
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 5
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 2 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-2 1/2); Over

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 107-108
December 24, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
136.533
New Orleans
133.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3); Under

Miami @ Buffalo

Game 105-106
December 24, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
131.260
Buffalo
136.833
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 5 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-3 1/2); Under

Washington @ Chicago

Game 103-104
December 24, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
134.357
Chicago
126.956
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3 1/2); Over


Sunday, December 25

Denver @ Kansas City

Game 129-130
December 25, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
129.769
Kansas City
139.366
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 9 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-3 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Game 127-128
December 25, 2016 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
131.455
Pittsburgh
142.319
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 11
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-5); Over


Monday, December 26

Detroit @ Dallas

Game 131-132
December 26, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
137.987
Dallas
135.528
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+7); Under

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

Thursday's game

Giants (10-4) @ Eagles (5-9)— New Jersey won eight of last nine games, is 2-3 in true road games, winning 20-19 at Dallas, 27-13 in Cleveland- they’re 1-0 as road favorite. Eagles lost five in row, nine of 11 since a 3-0 start; they’re 4-2 at home, but lost 27-13/27-22 in last two home tilts. Philly is 4-5 as an underdog; they lost last two games in final 2:00. Giants (-2.5) won first meeting 28-23 in Week 9, snapping 4-game series skid; they were outgained 443-302, but Eagles scored only 20 points on six trips to red zone-= NY had two TD drives of less than 35 yards. Giants lost five of last seven visits here. Underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Last six Giant games stayed under the total; Eagles’ last three games went over.


Saturday's games
Redskins (7-6-1) @ Bears (3-11)— 4th road game in five weeks for Washington, which travels on very short week after deflating 26-15 loss to Carolina Monday that crippled their playoff hopes. Redskins lost three of last four games overall, are 3-3 in true road games, 1-0 as road favorites. Bears covered four of last five games; their last three losses were all by 6 or less points. Chicago is 3-4 at home, 4-1 as a home underdog. Washington won last six series games, with five of six wins by 4 or less points; they won last three visits here, by 3-3-3 points. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 11-6 vs spread, 3-2 on road; NFC North underdogs are 10-8, 3-1 at home. Under is 6-3 in Chicago’s last nine games; over is 5-2 in Redskin road games. In last five games, Washington opponents are 34-73 (46.6%) on third down.

Dolphins (9-5) @ Bills (7-7)— Miami is holding onto last Wild Card spot; they haven’t made it to playoffs since 2008; Dolphins won three of last four road games, are 2-3 as road underdogs. Miami (+3) won first meeting 28-25 at home, running ball for 256 yards- they outgained Bills 454-267 in game they trailed 17-6 with 5:00 left in third quarter. Fish are now 2-5 in last seven series games; they lost last four visits to Buffalo, by 5-19-19-16 points. Buffalo is 3-2 in its last five games, 3-2 at home, 2-2 as home favorites but rumors say Ryan is out as coach after next week. Miami is +13 in turnovers in last nine games; they have 12 takeaways in last four games. AFC divisional home favorites are 14-8 vs spread, 2-2 in AFC East games. Over is 11-2 in last 13 Buffalo games, 4-0 in last five Dolphin games.

Buccaneers (8-6) @ Saints (6-8)— Tampa Bay is tied for last Wild Card spot; they won five of last six games (6-0 vs spread), are 5-2 on road, 5-1 as road underdogs. Bucs (-2) beat Saints 16-11 two weeks ago in Tampa; Brees threw three INTs; Saints were -3 in TOs- they’re still 8-2 in last ten series games. Saints are 3-4 at home, 1-4 as home favorites; underdogs covered six of their seven home games. NO turned ball over 14 times (-8) in last six games; they scored 41+ points in last three wins, lost last four times they scored less than 41. Tampa Bay lost four of last five visits here, with three of four losses by 11+ points. NFC South divisional home favorites are 1-4 vs spread this year. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Tampa Bay games, 6-3 in Saints’ last nine games.

Falcons (9-5) @ Panthers (5-8)— Since 2011, Carolina is 21-6 in Nov/Dec, 3rd-best record in NFL. Very short work week for Panthers after Monday’s win at Washington (3-2 in last five games). Atlanta leads NFC South by a game; they won five of last seven games overall, are 5-2 on road, 2-1 as road favorites- they scored 42-41 points in last two games over sorry Rams/49ers, now step up in class. Falcons (+3) whacked Carolina 48-33 in Week 4, they outgained the Panthers 571-378, averaged 12 yards/pass attempt. Carolina is 4-3 at home (favored in all seven). Panthers are 5-3 in last eight series games; Falcons lost three of last four visits here, with all three losses by 10+ points. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year. Over is 12-2 in Atlanta games, 2-5 in Carolina home games.

Vikings (7-7) @ Packers (8-6)— Green Bay is holding second Wild Card spot; they’ve won last four games, scoring 29 pts/game. Packers are 5-2 at home, covering last two home games; they’re +10 in turnovers last two games, after being -6 in first 12 games. Vikings lost seven of last nine games after a 5-0 start; they lost three of last four home games. Minnesota (+2.5) opened their new dome with 17-14 win over Green Bay way back in Week 2; Vikings had 12-yard edge in field position, were +2 in turnovers, held Rodgers to 4.4 yards/pass attempt. Pack is 10-3-1 in last 14 series games, 5-1 in last six played here, with last four Green Bay wins here by 9+ points. Underdogs are 7-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this season. Over is 6-2 in last eight Packer games, 3-6 in last nine Minnesota tilts.

Jets (3-11) @ Patriots (12-2)— New Jersey lost five of last six games; they’re 3-4 on road, 2-4 as road underdogs, losing by 21-18-25-4 points- they were outscored 54-16 in first half of last three games. Expect Fitzpatrick back under center here after Petty got pummeled by Dolphins Saturday nite. Patriots won last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 5-2 SU/ATS at home, 8-2 vs spread with Brady under center. New England (-7.5) beat Jets 22-17 in Swamp four weeks ago; game was 10-10 at half, yardage was 377-333 NE- Pats were +2 in turnovers; they’re 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning last five hereby 9-3-3-2-7 points. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 21-21-1 vs spread this season. Under is 4-1 in last five Patriot games, 7-3 in Jets’ last ten games.

Titans (8-6) @ Jaguars (2-12)— Jacksonville fired coach Bradley; former Bills’ coach Marrone is interim coach. Jaguars lost last nine games (3-6 vs spread), despite trailing at halftime in only one of last five games; they’re 0-6 at home, 1-3 as a home underdog. Tennessee won/covered its last three games; they’re 4-3 on road, 3-3 as a road underdog- they rallied back to win at KC LW after falling behind 14-0 in first quarter. Titans (-3) won first meeting 36-22 at home; game was 27-0 at half. Tennessee ran ball for 214 yards, TY was 414-370 and Jax fired their OC after game. Tennessee lost four of last five visits here, losing 21-13/19-13 last two years. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 15-10 in divisional games this season. Over is 6-3 in Jaguars’ last nine games, 1-3 in last four Tennessee tilts.

Chargers (5-9) @ Browns (0-14)— In last four games, Cleveland was outscored 65-9 in first half. Would take big leap of faith to lay TD on road with Chargers by frigid Lake Erie; San Diego lost tough game to rival Raiders LW, has possibly last-ever game in Qualcomm next week- they’re 2-5 on road, winning by 3-8 points at Houston/Atlanta, both domes. Bolts are 3-3 as a favorite this season. Browns are 2-12 vs spread this year, 0-7-1 in last eight games, 0-5-1 in last six home games. Cleveland has only four takeaways (-9) in its last eight games. San Diego won six of last eight games with Cleveland; they’re 3-2 in last five visits here, last of which was in ’12. Favorites are 6-3 vs spread in AFC West divisional games this season. Under is 5-1 in Browns’ last six games, 3-0-1 in Chargers’ last four games.

Colts (7-7) @ Raiders (11-3)— Oakland is 11-3 but led at halftime in only five of 14 games; they have one-game lead in AFC West;, won seven of last eight games overall, are 4-2 at home, 2-3 as a home favorite, with wins in Coliseum by 10-3-3-14 points. Raiders scored only two TDs on last 23 drives; unsure if Carr’s injured finger is hampering his passing, but they have to run shotgun in short yardage- he can’t take snaps under center. Colts are 0-4-1 vs spread in game following a win; Indy is won its last four true road games, is 3-1-1 as a road underdog- they crushed Vikings in Twin Cities LW. Indy won last four series games; they won three of last four visits to Oakland. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 6-10 vs spread; AFC South dogs are 9-14, 7-7 on road. Under is 4-1 in Colts’ last five games, 1-5 in Oakland home games.

49ers (1-13) @ Rams (4-10)— SF opened season with 28-0 (+2.5) home win over Rams; 49ers haven’t won since then but they outgained LA 320-185 in that game. Niners are 5-3-1 in last nine series games; they split last six visits to St Louis. SF is 0-7 on road, 1-5 as a road underdog- in their last three games, 49ers were outscored 52-0 in second half. Rams are 0-5 in Goff’s starts; four of the five were against playoff teams. LA lost nine of last ten games after a 1-3 start- they had three extra days to rest after loss in Seattle last Thursday. Rams didn’t score a TD in two of their four wins; they’re 0-1 as a favorite this year. Rams were +5 in turnovers in their 3-1 start; since then, they’re -14. NFC home divisional favorites are 7-12-1 vs spread. Under is 6-2 in Rams’ last eight games, 4-2 in 49ers’ last six.

Cardinals (5-8-1) @ Seahawks (9-4-1)— Seattle has half-game lead for #2 seed in NFC, which comes with a week off. Teams battled to 6-6 tie in Week 7 in desert where both kickers gagged on easy FGs in OT. Home team is 1-5-1 in last seven series games; Arizona won two of last three visits here, but they’re 2-5-1 overall in last eight games vs Seattle. Cardinals outgained Seattle 443-257 but came up empty in two red zone drives. Seahawks are 7-0 at home, covering last three home tilts in wins by 11-33-21 points. Cardinals lost four of last five games; they’re 1-5 on road, 0-3 as a road underdog, losing by 15-10-6-19-3 on foreign soil. Underdogs are 4-3-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Over is 4-2 in Seattle’s last six home games, 5-0 in last five Arizona games.

Bengals (5-8-1) @ Texans (8-6)— Savage gets first NFL start here; he’s thrown 55 passes in three NFL games, leading Houston to come-from-behind win off bench last week. He’s been a Texan for three years, has full knowledge of offense. Texans are 6-1 at home, 3-1-1 as a home favorite- they’re tied atop AFC South with Titans. Bengals are 2-5 in true road games, beating Jets/Browns; they’re 2-4 in last six games overall, 0-3 as a road underdog. Houston won six of last seven series games; two of those wins were in playoff games. Home side lost four of last six series games. Bengals are 2-3 in last five visits here. AFC South non-divisional home favorites are 6-4 vs spread; AFC North underdogs are 2-11 vs spread, 2-7 on road. Under is 5-1 in last six Bengal games, 3-1 in Houston’s last four games.

Sunday's games
Ravens (8-6) @ Steelers (9-5)— First place is on line in AFC North. Baltimore won six of last seven series games; they upset Steelers 21-14 at home (+3) in Week 9; one of their two TDs came on a blocked punt. Ravens are 5-3 in last eight visits here. Baltimore is 5-2 in its last seven games overall; they’re 0-4 SU/ATS in last four road games. Steelers won/covered their last five games, with four of those on road; they’re 4-2 as home favorites, with losses to Dallas/NE- their home wins are by 8-29-18-10 points. Pitt offense had only one TD LW at Cincy, kicked six FGs, not a good sign, but they did rally back from down 20-6 for an important road win. Favorites are 8-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games. Last three Raven games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

Broncos (8-6) @ Chiefs (10-4)— KC is 10-0 when it scores 19+ points, 0-4 when it does not. Denver has two offensive TDs on its last 35 drives; they’re 1-3 since their bye, scoring one first-half TD in four games. Broncos are 4-3 on road, 2-2 as road underdogs, with losses by 8-10-3 points on foreign soil. KC blew 14-0 lead in home loss to Titans LW; they’re 2-5 as a home favorite this year. Chiefs lost seven of last nine series games but won first meeting 30-27 (+3.5) in Denver four weeks ago; Broncos outgained them 464-273, but KC ran free kick back for a TD after a safety that gave Chiefs 2-0 lead. Denver won its last five visits here, all by 7+ points. Favorites are 6-3 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Under is 8-2 in Chiefs’ last ten games, 4-1 in Denver’s last five.


Monday's game
Lions (9-5) @ Cowboys (12-2)— Detroit has trailed in 4th quarter in 13 of 14 games; they’re 3-1 in dome games on road, with only loss by 7 in Houston. Lions are 4-2 as road underdogs- they lead Packers by game in NFC North, host Packers next week. Cowboys are 0-4 vs spread in last four games after covering nine in row before that; they’re 3-3 as a home favorite. Dallas won six of last nine series games; four of last five were decided by 4 or less points. Average total in last six series games is 58. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 11-6 vs spread, 8-4 at home; NFC North underdogs are 10-8, 7-7 on road. Lion QB Stafford is from Dallas area, won state title in HS, playing for same HS as Jerry Jones’ grandson. Under is 8-0 in Detroit’s last eight games, 4-1 in Cowboys’ last five.

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 16

Thurs – Dec. 22

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:25 PM ET
New York: 14-3 ATS in road games off 2 consecutive home wins
Philadelphia: 1-5 ATS revenging a road loss against opponent


Sat – Dec. 24

Washington at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Washington: 58-91 ATS as a favorite
Chicago: 11-0 ATS off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog

Miami at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET
Miami: 1-8 ATS in road games versus division opponents
Buffalo: 41-24 ATS in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42

Tampa Bay at New Orleans, 4:25 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 8-2 ATS after the first month of the season
New Orleans: 5-15 ATS in home games after allowing 7 or more yards/play in their previous game

Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta: 1-11 ATS after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half
Carolina: 9-1 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games

Minnesota at Green Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 17-7 ATS as an underdog
Green Bay: 8-0 UNDER off a road win

NY Jets at New England, 1:00 PM ET
New York: 3-12 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
New England: 9-1 ATS when playing with 6 or less days

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 2-13 ATS versus division opponents
Jacksonville: 13-4 ATS after gaining 100 or less passing yards in last game

San Diego at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
San Diego: 9-0 ATS off a division game
Cleveland: 2-12 ATS as an underdog

Indianapolis at Oakland, 4:05 PM ET
Indianapolis: 13-3 ATS off a road blowout win by 21points or more
Oakland: 1-10 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

San Francisco at Los Angeles, 4:25 PM ET
San Francisco: 3-11 ATS in road games
Los Angeles: 14-3 ATS in home games after 4 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Arizona at Seattle, 4:25 PM ET
Arizona: 9-1 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game
Seattle: 6-21 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more

Cincinnati at Houston, 8:25 PM ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Houston: 1-5 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less


Sun – Dec. 25

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 4:30 PM ET
Baltimore: 27-11 UNDER in the last 2 weeks of the regular season
Pittsburgh: 18-7 ATS in home games revenging an upset loss against opponent as a favorite

Denver at Kansas City, 8:30 PM ET
Denver: 7-0 UNDER after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Kansas City: 6-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game


Mon – Dec. 26

Detroit at Dallas, 8:30 PM ET
Detroit: 2-12 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8
Dallas: 7-1 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, December 22

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Thursday Night Football betting preview: Giants at Eagles
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The Giants have won two in a row overall, but their mediocre 3-3 mark away from home leaves a bit to be desired as they attempt to capture their first playoff berth since the 2011 season.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5, 41.5)

The New York Giants' road to their first postseason berth in five years could reach its intended destination on Thursday, as they travel down Interstate 95 to visit the NFC East-rival Philadelphia Eagles. The Giants have won two in a row overall, but their mediocre 3-3 mark away from home leaves a bit to be desired as they attempt to capture their first playoff berth since their magical 2011 season when they went on to win Super Bowl XLVI.

Eli Manning threw two of his season-high four touchdown passes to Odell Beckham Jr. in New York's 28-23 victory over Philadelphia on Nov. 6 and has tossed multiple scoring strikes in six of his last seven contests. Beckham reeled in a one-handed gem for a touchdown in Sunday's 17-6 triumph over Detroit and joined John Jefferson and Randy Moss as the lone players in NFL history with at least 1,000 receiving yards and 10 TD catches in each of their first three seasons. Manning and Beckham could be in for a big day against cellar-dwelling Philadelphia, which has dropped five in a row overall and has allowed two passing scores in each of its last four games. Rookie Carson Wentz failed to throw for a touchdown in the first meeting with the Giants and for the fourth time in seven games in the Eagles' 27-26 setback to the Ravens.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (-2.5) - Eagles (2.5) + home field (-3) = New York Giants -2

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as three-point road favorites and Wednesday the books increased the spread to the key number of 3. The total opened at 42 and came down slightly to 41.5. View the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The weather will be decent (for this time of year) in Philadelphia on Thursday night. Clear skies, temperatures in the mid-30's and 8-11 mph winds.

INJURIES:

Giants - S N. Berhe (Questionable, concussion), T W. Beatty (Questionable, leg), LB J. Casillas (Questionable, knee), T M. Newhouse (Questionable, shoulder), LS Z. DeOssie (Questionable, hamstring), DE O. Odighizuwa (Questionable, knee), LB K. Robinson (Questionable, shoulder), CB J. Jenkins (Questionable, back), DE J. Pierre-Paul (Out For Season, hernia), QB R. Nassib (I-R, elbow), RB S. Vereen (I-R, tricep), RB O. Darkwa (I-R, leg), S D. Thompson (I-R, foot), S M. Thompson (I-R, knee), FB N. Whitlock (I-R, foot), LB J. Thomas (I-R, knee), FB W. Johnson (I-R, stinger), TE M. LaCosse (I-R, knee).

Eagles - RB D. Sproles (Probable, concussion), TE B. Celek (Probable, stinger), WR J. Matthews (Probable, ankle), T H. Vaitai (Questionable, knee), G A. Barbre (Questionable, hamstring), CB N. Carroll (Questionable, undisclosed), G I. Seumalo (Questionable, ankle), DT T. Hart (Out Indefinitely, ankle), RB K. Barner (I-R, hamstring), RB W. Smallwood (I-R, knee), LS J. Dorenbos (I-R, wrist), G M. Tobin (I-R, knee), CB R. Brooks (I-R, quadricep), LB J. Walker (I-R, knee), DE A. McCalister (I-R, calf).

ABOUT THE GIANTS (10-4 SU, 8-5-1 ATS, 3-11 O/U): Veteran Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie could be inserted in the starting lineup in place of fellow cornerback Janoris Jenkins, who was limited in Tuesday's practice due to a balky back. Signed to a five-year deal worth $62.5 million in the offseason, Jenkins has shadowed the opponent's No. 1 receiver while starting all 14 games for New York this season and has missed just four contests in his five-year career. Both Jenkins and Rodgers-Cromartie have a team-best 17 pass deflections in addition to three interceptions, with the latter picking off a pass last week versus the Lions. New York's opportunistic defense has stepped it up by recording at least one turnover in eight straight games.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS, 8-6 O/U): Ryan Mathews continued his hot streak at the expense of the Ravens' top-ranked defense, rushing for a season-best 128 yards on 6.4 yards a carry while collecting his fifth touchdown in six games. Mathews found the end zone in the first meeting with the Giants, but was limited to just 15 yards on five carries while fellow running back Darren Sproles had 57 yards on 13 totes in that contest. Sproles was limited to just 19 carries for 81 yards in his last five games before sustaining a concussion, but the veteran could be closing in on a return after practicing on Tuesday.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
* Under is 6-0 in Giants' last 6 road games.
* Over is 7-0 in Eagles' last 7 vs. NFC East.
* Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Philadelphia.

CONSENSUS: The Covers public is pounding the road favorite Giants at a rate of 72 percent and Over is picking up 60 percent of the totals wagers.


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[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16

Expect plenty of fireworks this weekend at Bank of America Stadium, as the Falcons and Panthers renew hostilities in a game featuring one of the highest Vegas totals of the week.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 42)

Dolphins' relentless QB pressure vs. Bills' lack of a pass offense

The Dolphins have surged into wild-card contention after a slow start to the season - but there's still some work to do, beginning with a Week 16 matchup with the rival Bills in Buffalo. Miami's offense is in flux, with starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill out for the remainder of the season and No. 1 running back Jay Ajayi struggling to regain his form of earlier in the year. But the Dolphins' pass defense is better than ever, and should make things very difficult for the Buffalo offense.

The Dolphins haven't been able to do much against the run this year, having given up the third-most rushing yards in the league (1,855). But with LT Ndamukong Suh (89.0) and RE Cameron Wake (88.2) boasting superior Pro Football Focus scores, the Miami pass rush is a sight to behold. The Dolphins have racked up 31 sacks on the year, they lead the league with 115 QB pressures and their 16 interceptions through 14 games are tied with three other teams for second-most in the league.

That bodes well for the Dolphins this week, as they face off against a Bills pass offense that ranks among the worst in football. Buffalo comes into this one with the second-fewest passing yards in the NFL (2,557), having thrown just 14 touchdown passes through 14 games. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor has had to put up with a makeshift wide receiving corps for the majority of the season - and with the Dolphins expected to create pressure all day, those passing stats likely won't improve much.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Tyrod Taylor


Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 52)

Falcons' offensive superiority vs. Panthers' all-or-nothing pass D

Expect plenty of fireworks this weekend at Bank of America Stadium, as the Falcons and Panthers renew hostilities in a game featuring one of the highest Vegas totals of the week. The marquee matchup features Atlanta quarterback and MVP candidate Matt Ryan doing battle with a Carolina defense that has shown flashes of brilliance, but has too often looked overmatched and will likely miss out on a playoff berth as a result.

Ryan has been one of the biggest surprises of the season, guiding an Atlanta offense to the third-most passing yards in the league (4,146) and 32 passing touchdowns, tied for second-most in the NFL. Ryan himself boasts a sensational 90.8 PFF rating - third-best at his position - while three members of his vastly improved offensive line have PFF grades above 85.0. Simply put, the O-line has given Ryan plenty of time to work - and he has made opponents pay.

The Panthers aren't exactly slouches in pass defense - they have 16 interceptions on the season, and their 40 sacks are tied with Denver for the most in the league. But they could be without LB Luke Kuechly (concussion) yet again, and they have surrendered the most passing yards in the league as elite quarterbacks and O-lines have exposed their lack of secondary depth. Ryan and the Falcons picked Carolina apart in their first meeting; look for them to do it again Sunday.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Matt Ryan


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52.5)

Bucs' fourth-quarter follies vs. Saints' late-game surges

This divisional rivalry is a rematch from Week 14, when the Saints went into Raymond James Stadium and laid a colossal egg en route to a 16-11 defeat. Oddsmakers are expecting a much different result this time around, with the Saints a modest favorite in a contest that should be a lot more high-scoring than the first go-around. And if it's close heading into the fourth quarter, New Orleans has a decided advantage if we consider the trends so far this season.

The Buccaneers have not been a solid fourth-quarter team in 2016, having averaged a paltry 5.6 points per game over the final 15 minutes - tied for 23rd league-wide. That mark is even lower in recent weeks, with Tampa Bay having scored just 14 total fourth-quarter points over its past three games. Even worse, the Bucs average just four points in fourth quarters on the road. Their season average falls exactly in line with their 2015 rate, which also ranked among the league's worst.

By comparison, the Saints have been one of the league's most dangerous fourth-quarter teams, averaging 9.6 points; only the Denver Broncos (10.2) average more. New Orleans' mark was inflated by a 21-point fourth quarter in last week's wild 48-41 triumph over the host Arizona Cardinals, helping them to a league-best 11.3 points-per-game mark in fourth quarters on the road - but with a still-robust 8.0 mark at home, the Saints are fourth-quarter menaces no matter where they play.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 43)

Vikings' turnover troubles vs. Packers' elite ball-hawking

The latest chapter in this NFC North rivalry features playoff ramifications for both teams, with the Vikings trying desperately to remain in the wild-card hunt and the Packers with their eye on overtaking the Detroit Lions for top spot in the division. Once upon a time Minnesota found itself in the driver's seat while Green Bay scuffled - but things have flipped around in a major way, thanks in no small part to a reversal in the turnover department.

Minnesota has lost seven of nine since opening the season with five consecutive victories, as its once-vaunted defense shows cracks while the offense continues to spin its wheels. The Sam Bradford-led attack has managed more than 20 points just twice in the last nine weeks, and had three turnovers in last week's 34-6 debacle against Indianapolis. Minnesota has a -3 turnover differential over the past three weeks, reducing its per-game differential to +0.6 for the season.

The Packers are headed in the opposite direction at just the right time as they look to put a slow start behind them. Green Bay has reeled off four consecutive victories - and while the play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played a significant part in that, the Packers' dominance in turnovers has been just as important. Green Bay was a +4 in turnovers in last week's thrilling win over Chicago, and are +10 over their last three weeks. If that trend continues, the Packers should soar Sunday.

Daily fantasy watch: Green Bay D/ST

[Udog]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 16 upon us……

— Seahawks are 17-6 as a recent home favorite vs NFC West foes.

— Tennessee is 7-25-2 vs spread in its last 34 divisional games.

— Carolina is 6-10-1 vs spread in its last 17 games.

— Green Bay is 22-11-1 in its last 34 divisional games.

— Saints are 13-6 vs spread in their last nineteen games.

— Buffalo is 14-8-1 in its last 23 games vs AFC East opponents.