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Saturday's Late Bowl Tips
December 16, 2016
**Appalachian State vs. Toledo**
-- This is the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl that’ll be contested in Montgomery, Alabama, otherwise known as ‘The Gump.’ This game will feature the MAC against the Sun Belt with Toledo taking on Appalachian State. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Toledo (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 60.
-- Toledo started 3-0 before losing a 55-53 decision at BYU in a wild, back-and-forth affair in Provo. The Rockets covered the spread as three-point road underdogs. There were four ties and nine lead changes, including one tie and five lead changes in the final stanza. BYU pulled into a 45-45 tie on Rhett Almond’s 32-yard field goal with 5:21 remaining, and the Cougars went ahead 52-45 on Jamaal Williams’s 14-yard TD run with 3:00 left. Toledo answered on Kareem Hunt’s seven-yard TD run with 1:11 remaining and then first-year head coach Jason Candle brazenly chose to go for two. The conversion was good when Logan Woodside hit Michael Roberts for a three-yard scoring pass. However, trailing 53-52, BYU quickly moved into field-goal range and then actually had two plays inside the 10 that could’ve resulted in a TD and a spread cover. That didn’t happen, though, with Almond’s 19-yard FG proving to be the game winner (unless you were holding a BYU -3 ticket). Woodside completed 30-of-38 passes for 505 yards and five TDs with two interceptions. Hunt rushed for 146 yards and one TD on 27 carries.
-- Following the loss to BYU, Toledo enjoyed another three-game winning streak before dropping a 31-26 decision to Ohio as a 15-point home ‘chalk.’ The Rockets bounced back with a third three-game winning streak before losing 55-35 at Western Michigan to close the regular season. Their best wins were at Arkansas State (31-10), at Eastern Michigan (35-20) and vs. Central Michigan (31-17).
-- Toledo is fourth in the nation in total offense, eighth in passing and 18th in scoring, averaging 38.8 points per game. Woodside, the junior signal caller, enjoyed a sensational campaign. He completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 3,882 yards with a 43/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senior WR Corey Jones, an electrifying speedster who thrives on special teams, has 60 receptions for 745 yards and five TDs. Jones has 1,525 all-purpose yards. Cody Thompson has 59 catches for 1,170 yards and 10 TDs, while Jon’Vea Johnson hauled in 38 balls for 751 yards and 10 TDs. Roberts has 43 catches for 514 yards and 15 TDs.
-- Hunt, a three-time All-MAC selection, needs only 25 rushing yards against the Mountaineers to become the school’s all-time leader. He produced 1,355 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 5.6 yards-per-carry average during his senior campaign. Hunt also had 39 catches for 377 yards and one TD. His 200-yard effort on 20 attempts was a season-high in the regular-season finale at Western Michigan.
-- Toledo has been a single-digit favorite just once this year, easily cashing tickets in the 31-10 win over Arkansas State as a 4.5-point road favorite.
-- Appalachian State (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) nearly shocked the country on the Thursday night of Week 1 at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. Scott Satterfield’s squad was a 21.5-point road underdog at Tennessee, but it jumped out to a 13-3 intermission lead. However, a missed extra point by freshman Michael Rugino, in addition to a 42-yard fourth-quarter field goal that sailed wide right, would come back to haunt the Mountaineers. On a third-and-goal play on the first possession of overtime, UT QB Josh Dobbs dove for the end zone, only to get stuck by an ASU defender and cough up the ball. The fumble was recovered by Jalen Hurd in the end zone for a TD. ASU’s incomplete pass on fourth and five ended the game, but the Mountaineers easily covered the number as 21.5-point road underdogs.
-- After thumping Old Dominion 31-7 as a 21-point home ‘chalk,’ App. State welcomed Miami to Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone for the biggest home game in the program’s history. Things didn’t go well, however. A long run by Marcus Cox was called back and the star RB was injured in the first quarter. The Hurricanes rolled to a 45-10 win as 4.5-point road favorites.
-- ASU won six in a row after the loss to UM, only to see its winning streak halted in a 28-24 loss at Troy as a two-point road underdog. The Mountaineers bounced back to win their last two games, beating ULM 42-17 at home before blasting New Mexico State 37-7 as 20-point road ‘chalk.’ In the win over the Aggies, Cox rushed for 140 yards on 16 carries while Jalin Moore ran 17 times for 111 yards and one TD. Junior QB Taylor Lamb completed 20-of-28 passes for 220 yards and one TD without an interception. Lamb also rushed for 71 yards and a pair of scores on 10 attempts.
-- After getting injured vs. Miami, Cox missed four consecutive games before returning to run for 115 yards and one TD in a 34-10 win at Ga. Southern. For the season, Cox ran for 854 yards and eight TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Cox is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 4,942 career yards. He also had 12 catches for 102 yards and one TDs this year. Moore rushed for a team-high 1,367 yards and 10 TDs with a 6.2 YPC average.
-- Lamb completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,162 yards with a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. He rushed for 379 yards and eight scores. Those numbers were down from his 2015 stats as a sophomore when Lamb threw for 2,387 yards with a 31/9 TD-INT ratio. He ran for 436 yards and five TDs.
-- Lamb’s favorite target is Shaedon Meadors, who has 43 receptions for 698 yards and two TDs.
-- ASU is 15th in the nation in total defense, 23rd in defending the run and seventh in scoring (17.0 PPG).
-- ASU went to this same bowl game last year, defeating Ohio 31-29 but failing to cover as a 7.5-point favorite.
-- When Matt Campbell left Toledo to take the Iowa State job last year, Candle led the Rockets to a 32-17 win over Temple at the Boca Raton Bowl as 2.5-point underdogs.
-- These schools have one common opponent. App. State won 45-38 at Akron, while Toledo coasted to a 48-17 road win against the Zips.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Appalachian State, which saw its games average combined scores of 46.1 PPG.
-- The ‘under’ is 6-5-1 overall for the Rockets, who saw their games average combined scores of 64.1 PPG. The ‘under’ cashed at a 4-1-1 clip in their last six outings.
-- Kickoff is slated for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Central Florida vs. Arkansas State**
-- The Autonation Cure Bowl will take place in Orlando at Camping World Stadium, where Arkansas State will represent the Sun Belt against Central Florida from out of the AAC. This contest will kick at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS College Sports Network.
-- As of Friday, most spots had UCF (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 50. The Red Wolves were +205 on the money line (risk $100 to win $205).
-- Scott Frost, the former offensive coordinator at Oregon, took over for George O’Leary and immediately posted a six-game improvement. The Knights finished 2015 with a 0-12 record, but they’re back in the postseason under Frost’s direction.
-- UCF went 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games as a single-digit favorite during the regular season.
-- UCF lost back-to-back contests to close the regular season, including a 35-20 home loss to Tulsa and a 48-31 loss at South Fla. The Knights gave up 351 rushing yards to the Bulls and they were minus two in turnover margin.
-- UFC’s defense is led by junior LB Shaquem Griffin, who has 85 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, six passes broken up, three QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one interception. Senior CB Shaquill Griffin is the leader in the secondary, recording 48 tackles, four interceptions, one pick-six, 2.5 TFL’s, one blocked kick and 12 PBU.
-- UFC true freshman QB McKenzie Milton took over the job from senior Justin Holman in Week 3. Milton completed 57.9% percent of his passes for 1,808 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 153 yards and three TDs. Milton’s favorite target is Tre’Quan Smith, who has 54 receptions for 808 yards and six TDs. UFC uses a trio of RBs led by Jawon Hamilton, who has rushed for a team-high 481 yards and four TDs.
-- Arkansas State (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) won seven if its last eight games while going 6-2 ATS after getting out to an abysmal 0-4 start. Blake Anderson’s team lost its first three games by double-digit margins vs. Toledo (31-10), at Auburn (51-14) and at Utah State (34-20). Then the Red Wolves hit rock bottom by losing at home to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, by a 28-23 count as 16.5-point ‘chalk.’
-- From there, however, Arkansas State turned it around with a six-game winning streak that included five wins by double-digit margins. The most impressive of those victories came at Troy on national television. The Trojans were 10-point home favorites, unbeaten in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming at Clemson by just a 30-24 score. Arkansas State limited Troy’s high-octane offense to merely 262 yards and forced five turnovers. Justice Hansen threw for 149 yards and one TD without an interception, while Warren Wand rushed for 90 yards on 17 attempts. Justin Clifton had a pair of interceptions for the defense.
-- Arkansas State has held foes to only 13.7 PPG in its last seven contests. Senior DE Chris Odom leads this unit with a team-best 12.5 sacks, while junior DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones collected 11 sacks. Odom also tallied 52 tackles, 17.5 TFL’s, six QB hurries, four forced fumbles, two PBU and one blocked kick. Rolland-Jones finished the regular season with 53 tackles, 19 TFL’s and six QB hurries.
-- Wand has rushed for a team-high 867 yards and seven TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC. Hansen has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 2,514 yards with a 16/8 TD-INT ratio. Blake Mack and Kendall Sanders have both caught 33 balls apiece. Mack has 585 receiving yards and three TD grabs, while Sanders has 426 receiving yards and four TD receptions.
-- Arkansas State has been an underdog four times this year, compiling a 2-2 record both SU and ATS with outright scalps at Troy and at Ga. Southern.
-- This is Arkansas State’s third straight postseason appearance under Anderson, but the Red Wolves are looking for their first bowl win on his watch. They lost 47-28 to La. Tech as 1.5-point underdogs at last season’s New Orleans Bowl.
-- The ‘under’ has been a monster money maker in Arkansas State games, cashing at a 9-2-1 overall clip. The Red Wolves have watched their games average combined scores of 49.2 PPG.
-- The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for UCF, going 6-1 in its last seven games. The Knights have seen their games average combined scores of 54.2 PPG.
**Southern Miss vs. UL-Lafayette**
-- This is the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl that’ll take place at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the Crescent City. Mark Hudspeth’s program is no stranger to this game. In fact, before last year’s dismal 4-8 campaign, the Ragin’ Cajuns not only went to the New Orleans Bowl four straight years, but they won it four consecutive times both SU and ATS. They beat San Diego State 32-30 as four-point ‘dogs in ’11 before besting East Carolina 43-34 as 6.5-point ‘chalk’ in ’12. Also, UL-L edged Tulane 24-21 as a 1.5-point puppy and knocked off Nevada 16-3 as a 1.5-point ‘dog.
-- Southern Miss is no stranger to the New Orleans Bowl, either. The Golden Eagles are also making their fifth appearance. They are 3-1 with wins in ’04, ’05 and ’08 with a loss in ’09.
-- As of Friday, most books had So. Miss (6-6 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) listed as a six-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The line opened at two at The Westgate SuperBook, but it was up to 3.5 within 24 hours. Then on Monday, the number went to four and was to 4.5 by Tuesday and five on Wednesday. The number was up to six as of Thursday. The total opened at 58 points and hasn’t moved much, resting at 58.5 at most place on Friday. The Ragin’ Cajuns can be had on the money line for a nice +200 return.
-- Jay Hopson’s first team at So. Miss got out to a nice start, winning its opener 44-35 at Kentucky after trailing 35-10 late in the second quarter. The Golden Eagles improved to 4-1, with their lone defeat coming at home to Troy by a 37-31 score, by winning at UTEP (34-7) and vs. Rice (44-28) in their first two C-USA games. However, four lopsided defeats followed in the next five outings.
-- The slide began with a 55-32 loss at Texas-San Antonio as a 16.5-point road ‘chalk.’ After a 45-10 loss at LSU, So. Miss briefly stopped the bleeding with a 24-14 non-covering home win over Marshall. Next, the Golden Eagles lost 38-27 to Charlotte as 19.5-point home favorites. Following a 51-35 loss at Old Dominion and a 29-23 setback at North Texas, they had to win the regular-season finale at home vs. La. Tech to get bowl eligible.
-- With a seven-game ATS losing streak to go with five outright defeats in the last six outings, So. Miss produced its best performance in months by beating La. Tech 39-24 as a 14.5-point home underdog. Nick Mullens couldn’t have played better on his Senior Night in Hattiesburg, completing 29-of-33 passes for 342 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ito Smith rushed for 127 yards on 24 attempts and also had four catches for 63 yards. D.J. Thompson had a team-high 12 receptions for 135 yards and two TDs. Junior safety Picasso Nelson had a pair of interceptions.
-- As a junior in 2015, Mullens threw for 4,476 yards with a 38/12 TD-INT ratio. He couldn’t duplicate those numbers this year, however. Mullens missed losses at ODU and at North Texas due to injuries. He finished the regular season by connecting on 63.4 percent of his throws for 2,926 yards with a 22/10 TD-INT ratio. Mullens rushed for four TDs.
-- Smith led the Golden Eagles with 1,321 rushing yards and 15 TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. He also had 42 catches for 453 yards and one TD. Allen Staggers is Mullens’s top target. Staggers has 51 receptions for 927 yards and six TDs, while Thompson has 43 catches for 470 yards and six TDs.
-- So. Miss has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, UL-Lafayette has posted a 4-2 spread record with a pair of outright victories in six games as an underdog.
-- UL-Lafayette (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) has covered the spread in four consecutive games, including a 30-3 win at ULM as a 5.5-point road favorite in the regular-season finale. The defense forced five turnovers and scored a pair of TDs on scoop and scores. Trevera Miller’s 73-yard return of a fumble recovery gave UL-L a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter. Then with 5:10 left until halftime, Otha Peters put his team ahead 21-3 with a 29-yard return of a fumble recovery. Elijah McGuire rushed for 110 yards and one TD on 28 totes.
-- Hudspeth’s team produced its best wins at home over South Alabama (28-23) and Arkansas State (24-19). The Ragin’ Cajuns beat the Red Hawks as six-point home underdogs thanks to three defensive stops on fourth-down conversion attempts and a 17-yard pick-six by junior DT Taboris Lee. UL-L QB Anthony Jennings, a transfer from LSU, threw for 242 yards and two TDs without an interception.
-- McGuire is the school’s second all-time leading rusher with 3,896 career yards. He was a Freshman All-American in 2013 and the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year in 2014. He ran for 1,028 yards this season to give him three 1,000-yard rushing years. McGuire averaged 4.8 YPC and had seven rushing TDs. McGuire also had 28 catches for 231 yards and two TDs.
-- Jennings has completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,083 yards with a mediocre 11/12 TD-INT ratio. Jennings has rushed for 322 yards and seven TDs. His best WR is Al Riles, who has 55 catches for 665 yards and two TDs. Keenan Barnes has 30 catches for 406 yards and a team-best six TD grabs.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-4-1 overall for UL-L, going 5-2 in its last seven regular-season contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have watched their games average combined scores of 48.9 PPG.
-- The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 overall for So. Miss, but it saw the ‘under’ connect its last two regular-season contests. The Golden Eagles have seen their games average combined scores of 63.5 PPG.
-- Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
December 16, 2016
**Appalachian State vs. Toledo**
-- This is the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl that’ll be contested in Montgomery, Alabama, otherwise known as ‘The Gump.’ This game will feature the MAC against the Sun Belt with Toledo taking on Appalachian State. As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Toledo (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) listed as a one-point favorite with a total of 60.
-- Toledo started 3-0 before losing a 55-53 decision at BYU in a wild, back-and-forth affair in Provo. The Rockets covered the spread as three-point road underdogs. There were four ties and nine lead changes, including one tie and five lead changes in the final stanza. BYU pulled into a 45-45 tie on Rhett Almond’s 32-yard field goal with 5:21 remaining, and the Cougars went ahead 52-45 on Jamaal Williams’s 14-yard TD run with 3:00 left. Toledo answered on Kareem Hunt’s seven-yard TD run with 1:11 remaining and then first-year head coach Jason Candle brazenly chose to go for two. The conversion was good when Logan Woodside hit Michael Roberts for a three-yard scoring pass. However, trailing 53-52, BYU quickly moved into field-goal range and then actually had two plays inside the 10 that could’ve resulted in a TD and a spread cover. That didn’t happen, though, with Almond’s 19-yard FG proving to be the game winner (unless you were holding a BYU -3 ticket). Woodside completed 30-of-38 passes for 505 yards and five TDs with two interceptions. Hunt rushed for 146 yards and one TD on 27 carries.
-- Following the loss to BYU, Toledo enjoyed another three-game winning streak before dropping a 31-26 decision to Ohio as a 15-point home ‘chalk.’ The Rockets bounced back with a third three-game winning streak before losing 55-35 at Western Michigan to close the regular season. Their best wins were at Arkansas State (31-10), at Eastern Michigan (35-20) and vs. Central Michigan (31-17).
-- Toledo is fourth in the nation in total offense, eighth in passing and 18th in scoring, averaging 38.8 points per game. Woodside, the junior signal caller, enjoyed a sensational campaign. He completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 3,882 yards with a 43/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senior WR Corey Jones, an electrifying speedster who thrives on special teams, has 60 receptions for 745 yards and five TDs. Jones has 1,525 all-purpose yards. Cody Thompson has 59 catches for 1,170 yards and 10 TDs, while Jon’Vea Johnson hauled in 38 balls for 751 yards and 10 TDs. Roberts has 43 catches for 514 yards and 15 TDs.
-- Hunt, a three-time All-MAC selection, needs only 25 rushing yards against the Mountaineers to become the school’s all-time leader. He produced 1,355 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 5.6 yards-per-carry average during his senior campaign. Hunt also had 39 catches for 377 yards and one TD. His 200-yard effort on 20 attempts was a season-high in the regular-season finale at Western Michigan.
-- Toledo has been a single-digit favorite just once this year, easily cashing tickets in the 31-10 win over Arkansas State as a 4.5-point road favorite.
-- Appalachian State (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) nearly shocked the country on the Thursday night of Week 1 at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville. Scott Satterfield’s squad was a 21.5-point road underdog at Tennessee, but it jumped out to a 13-3 intermission lead. However, a missed extra point by freshman Michael Rugino, in addition to a 42-yard fourth-quarter field goal that sailed wide right, would come back to haunt the Mountaineers. On a third-and-goal play on the first possession of overtime, UT QB Josh Dobbs dove for the end zone, only to get stuck by an ASU defender and cough up the ball. The fumble was recovered by Jalen Hurd in the end zone for a TD. ASU’s incomplete pass on fourth and five ended the game, but the Mountaineers easily covered the number as 21.5-point road underdogs.
-- After thumping Old Dominion 31-7 as a 21-point home ‘chalk,’ App. State welcomed Miami to Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone for the biggest home game in the program’s history. Things didn’t go well, however. A long run by Marcus Cox was called back and the star RB was injured in the first quarter. The Hurricanes rolled to a 45-10 win as 4.5-point road favorites.
-- ASU won six in a row after the loss to UM, only to see its winning streak halted in a 28-24 loss at Troy as a two-point road underdog. The Mountaineers bounced back to win their last two games, beating ULM 42-17 at home before blasting New Mexico State 37-7 as 20-point road ‘chalk.’ In the win over the Aggies, Cox rushed for 140 yards on 16 carries while Jalin Moore ran 17 times for 111 yards and one TD. Junior QB Taylor Lamb completed 20-of-28 passes for 220 yards and one TD without an interception. Lamb also rushed for 71 yards and a pair of scores on 10 attempts.
-- After getting injured vs. Miami, Cox missed four consecutive games before returning to run for 115 yards and one TD in a 34-10 win at Ga. Southern. For the season, Cox ran for 854 yards and eight TDs with a 6.3 YPC average. Cox is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 4,942 career yards. He also had 12 catches for 102 yards and one TDs this year. Moore rushed for a team-high 1,367 yards and 10 TDs with a 6.2 YPC average.
-- Lamb completed 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,162 yards with a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. He rushed for 379 yards and eight scores. Those numbers were down from his 2015 stats as a sophomore when Lamb threw for 2,387 yards with a 31/9 TD-INT ratio. He ran for 436 yards and five TDs.
-- Lamb’s favorite target is Shaedon Meadors, who has 43 receptions for 698 yards and two TDs.
-- ASU is 15th in the nation in total defense, 23rd in defending the run and seventh in scoring (17.0 PPG).
-- ASU went to this same bowl game last year, defeating Ohio 31-29 but failing to cover as a 7.5-point favorite.
-- When Matt Campbell left Toledo to take the Iowa State job last year, Candle led the Rockets to a 32-17 win over Temple at the Boca Raton Bowl as 2.5-point underdogs.
-- These schools have one common opponent. App. State won 45-38 at Akron, while Toledo coasted to a 48-17 road win against the Zips.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for Appalachian State, which saw its games average combined scores of 46.1 PPG.
-- The ‘under’ is 6-5-1 overall for the Rockets, who saw their games average combined scores of 64.1 PPG. The ‘under’ cashed at a 4-1-1 clip in their last six outings.
-- Kickoff is slated for 5:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Central Florida vs. Arkansas State**
-- The Autonation Cure Bowl will take place in Orlando at Camping World Stadium, where Arkansas State will represent the Sun Belt against Central Florida from out of the AAC. This contest will kick at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on the CBS College Sports Network.
-- As of Friday, most spots had UCF (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 50. The Red Wolves were +205 on the money line (risk $100 to win $205).
-- Scott Frost, the former offensive coordinator at Oregon, took over for George O’Leary and immediately posted a six-game improvement. The Knights finished 2015 with a 0-12 record, but they’re back in the postseason under Frost’s direction.
-- UCF went 1-2 both SU and ATS in three games as a single-digit favorite during the regular season.
-- UCF lost back-to-back contests to close the regular season, including a 35-20 home loss to Tulsa and a 48-31 loss at South Fla. The Knights gave up 351 rushing yards to the Bulls and they were minus two in turnover margin.
-- UFC’s defense is led by junior LB Shaquem Griffin, who has 85 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 11 sacks, six passes broken up, three QB hurries, two forced fumbles and one interception. Senior CB Shaquill Griffin is the leader in the secondary, recording 48 tackles, four interceptions, one pick-six, 2.5 TFL’s, one blocked kick and 12 PBU.
-- UFC true freshman QB McKenzie Milton took over the job from senior Justin Holman in Week 3. Milton completed 57.9% percent of his passes for 1,808 yards with a 9/7 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 153 yards and three TDs. Milton’s favorite target is Tre’Quan Smith, who has 54 receptions for 808 yards and six TDs. UFC uses a trio of RBs led by Jawon Hamilton, who has rushed for a team-high 481 yards and four TDs.
-- Arkansas State (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) won seven if its last eight games while going 6-2 ATS after getting out to an abysmal 0-4 start. Blake Anderson’s team lost its first three games by double-digit margins vs. Toledo (31-10), at Auburn (51-14) and at Utah State (34-20). Then the Red Wolves hit rock bottom by losing at home to an FCS school, Central Arkansas, by a 28-23 count as 16.5-point ‘chalk.’
-- From there, however, Arkansas State turned it around with a six-game winning streak that included five wins by double-digit margins. The most impressive of those victories came at Troy on national television. The Trojans were 10-point home favorites, unbeaten in Sun Belt play with their only loss coming at Clemson by just a 30-24 score. Arkansas State limited Troy’s high-octane offense to merely 262 yards and forced five turnovers. Justice Hansen threw for 149 yards and one TD without an interception, while Warren Wand rushed for 90 yards on 17 attempts. Justin Clifton had a pair of interceptions for the defense.
-- Arkansas State has held foes to only 13.7 PPG in its last seven contests. Senior DE Chris Odom leads this unit with a team-best 12.5 sacks, while junior DE Ja’Von Rolland-Jones collected 11 sacks. Odom also tallied 52 tackles, 17.5 TFL’s, six QB hurries, four forced fumbles, two PBU and one blocked kick. Rolland-Jones finished the regular season with 53 tackles, 19 TFL’s and six QB hurries.
-- Wand has rushed for a team-high 867 yards and seven TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC. Hansen has completed 58.9 percent of his throws for 2,514 yards with a 16/8 TD-INT ratio. Blake Mack and Kendall Sanders have both caught 33 balls apiece. Mack has 585 receiving yards and three TD grabs, while Sanders has 426 receiving yards and four TD receptions.
-- Arkansas State has been an underdog four times this year, compiling a 2-2 record both SU and ATS with outright scalps at Troy and at Ga. Southern.
-- This is Arkansas State’s third straight postseason appearance under Anderson, but the Red Wolves are looking for their first bowl win on his watch. They lost 47-28 to La. Tech as 1.5-point underdogs at last season’s New Orleans Bowl.
-- The ‘under’ has been a monster money maker in Arkansas State games, cashing at a 9-2-1 overall clip. The Red Wolves have watched their games average combined scores of 49.2 PPG.
-- The ‘under’ is 8-4 overall for UCF, going 6-1 in its last seven games. The Knights have seen their games average combined scores of 54.2 PPG.
**Southern Miss vs. UL-Lafayette**
-- This is the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl that’ll take place at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the Crescent City. Mark Hudspeth’s program is no stranger to this game. In fact, before last year’s dismal 4-8 campaign, the Ragin’ Cajuns not only went to the New Orleans Bowl four straight years, but they won it four consecutive times both SU and ATS. They beat San Diego State 32-30 as four-point ‘dogs in ’11 before besting East Carolina 43-34 as 6.5-point ‘chalk’ in ’12. Also, UL-L edged Tulane 24-21 as a 1.5-point puppy and knocked off Nevada 16-3 as a 1.5-point ‘dog.
-- Southern Miss is no stranger to the New Orleans Bowl, either. The Golden Eagles are also making their fifth appearance. They are 3-1 with wins in ’04, ’05 and ’08 with a loss in ’09.
-- As of Friday, most books had So. Miss (6-6 SU, 3-8-1 ATS) listed as a six-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The line opened at two at The Westgate SuperBook, but it was up to 3.5 within 24 hours. Then on Monday, the number went to four and was to 4.5 by Tuesday and five on Wednesday. The number was up to six as of Thursday. The total opened at 58 points and hasn’t moved much, resting at 58.5 at most place on Friday. The Ragin’ Cajuns can be had on the money line for a nice +200 return.
-- Jay Hopson’s first team at So. Miss got out to a nice start, winning its opener 44-35 at Kentucky after trailing 35-10 late in the second quarter. The Golden Eagles improved to 4-1, with their lone defeat coming at home to Troy by a 37-31 score, by winning at UTEP (34-7) and vs. Rice (44-28) in their first two C-USA games. However, four lopsided defeats followed in the next five outings.
-- The slide began with a 55-32 loss at Texas-San Antonio as a 16.5-point road ‘chalk.’ After a 45-10 loss at LSU, So. Miss briefly stopped the bleeding with a 24-14 non-covering home win over Marshall. Next, the Golden Eagles lost 38-27 to Charlotte as 19.5-point home favorites. Following a 51-35 loss at Old Dominion and a 29-23 setback at North Texas, they had to win the regular-season finale at home vs. La. Tech to get bowl eligible.
-- With a seven-game ATS losing streak to go with five outright defeats in the last six outings, So. Miss produced its best performance in months by beating La. Tech 39-24 as a 14.5-point home underdog. Nick Mullens couldn’t have played better on his Senior Night in Hattiesburg, completing 29-of-33 passes for 342 yards and three TDs without an interception. Ito Smith rushed for 127 yards on 24 attempts and also had four catches for 63 yards. D.J. Thompson had a team-high 12 receptions for 135 yards and two TDs. Junior safety Picasso Nelson had a pair of interceptions.
-- As a junior in 2015, Mullens threw for 4,476 yards with a 38/12 TD-INT ratio. He couldn’t duplicate those numbers this year, however. Mullens missed losses at ODU and at North Texas due to injuries. He finished the regular season by connecting on 63.4 percent of his throws for 2,926 yards with a 22/10 TD-INT ratio. Mullens rushed for four TDs.
-- Smith led the Golden Eagles with 1,321 rushing yards and 15 TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. He also had 42 catches for 453 yards and one TD. Allen Staggers is Mullens’s top target. Staggers has 51 receptions for 927 yards and six TDs, while Thompson has 43 catches for 470 yards and six TDs.
-- So. Miss has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, going 0-3 both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, UL-Lafayette has posted a 4-2 spread record with a pair of outright victories in six games as an underdog.
-- UL-Lafayette (6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS) has covered the spread in four consecutive games, including a 30-3 win at ULM as a 5.5-point road favorite in the regular-season finale. The defense forced five turnovers and scored a pair of TDs on scoop and scores. Trevera Miller’s 73-yard return of a fumble recovery gave UL-L a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter. Then with 5:10 left until halftime, Otha Peters put his team ahead 21-3 with a 29-yard return of a fumble recovery. Elijah McGuire rushed for 110 yards and one TD on 28 totes.
-- Hudspeth’s team produced its best wins at home over South Alabama (28-23) and Arkansas State (24-19). The Ragin’ Cajuns beat the Red Hawks as six-point home underdogs thanks to three defensive stops on fourth-down conversion attempts and a 17-yard pick-six by junior DT Taboris Lee. UL-L QB Anthony Jennings, a transfer from LSU, threw for 242 yards and two TDs without an interception.
-- McGuire is the school’s second all-time leading rusher with 3,896 career yards. He was a Freshman All-American in 2013 and the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year in 2014. He ran for 1,028 yards this season to give him three 1,000-yard rushing years. McGuire averaged 4.8 YPC and had seven rushing TDs. McGuire also had 28 catches for 231 yards and two TDs.
-- Jennings has completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,083 yards with a mediocre 11/12 TD-INT ratio. Jennings has rushed for 322 yards and seven TDs. His best WR is Al Riles, who has 55 catches for 665 yards and two TDs. Keenan Barnes has 30 catches for 406 yards and a team-best six TD grabs.
-- The ‘under’ is 7-4-1 overall for UL-L, going 5-2 in its last seven regular-season contests. The Ragin’ Cajuns have watched their games average combined scores of 48.9 PPG.
-- The ‘over’ is 6-5-1 overall for So. Miss, but it saw the ‘under’ connect its last two regular-season contests. The Golden Eagles have seen their games average combined scores of 63.5 PPG.
-- Kickoff is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
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