The Bum's All You Need To Know About 2016 - 2017 College Bowl Season Picks-Trends- Stats !

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No conference title? No problem. It's happened before
December 5, 2016

Ohio State didn't win the Big Ten, but the Buckeyes will play for a much bigger prize. Their national title hopes are still very much intact.

That's rare, but not unprecedented.

Ranked second by the AP and third by the playoff committee, the Buckeyes will take on Clemson in a national semifinal . Ohio State is the first team in the playoff's three-year history to be included despite failing to win its conference.

During the Bowl Championship Series era, however, three teams made it to the title game after falling short within their conferences. Here's a look at how it happened:

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (2001)

Why They Didn't Win Their Conference: The Cornhuskers were undefeated heading into their regular-season finale at Colorado, but the Buffaloes drubbed Nebraska 62-36. That prevented the Cornhuskers from even playing in the Big 12 championship game.

''We really had a big dream,'' Nebraska QB Eric Crouch said after the game. ''Those are over with now. This is going to be a tough one to swallow.''

What Happened Next: Nebraska fell from first to fourth in the BCS standings after the loss, trailing Miami, Florida and Texas. Florida lost to Tennessee the following week, and Texas fell to Colorado in the Big 12 title game. Tennessee briefly held the No. 2 BCS slot before losing to LSU in the SEC championship game.

Nebraska, which hadn't played at all since being routed by Colorado, ended up back at No. 2 in the BCS standings, just ahead of Colorado and Oregon. Both major polls had Oregon No. 2.

What Happened In The End: Nebraska was ranked No. 4 in the AP poll when it took the field for the BCS title game at the Rose Bowl. The Cornhuskers were overmatched. Miami led 34-0 at halftime and went on to win 37-14.

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OKLAHOMA SOONERS (2003)

Why They Didn't Win Their Conference: The Sooners went unbeaten during the regular season but were routed 35-7 by Kansas State in the Big 12 title game.

''I'm not going to sit here and lobby for any bowl,'' Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops said afterward. ''We just got whipped. They outplayed us in every part of the game.''

What Happened Next: Stoops didn't need to lobby. Oklahoma was No. 1 in the BCS standings before it lost to Kansas State - and still No. 1 afterward. The Sooners ended up facing LSU in the BCS title game. Southern California was left out despite being No. 1 in both polls.

The Final Result: Playing in its home state at the Sugar Bowl, LSU held off Oklahoma 21-14 to take the BCS title. USC, which beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl, won the AP national title.

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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (2011)

Why They Didn't Win Their Conference: Alabama hosted LSU in a matchup of unbeatens on Nov. 5, with the Tigers prevailing 9-6 in overtime. Neither team lost for the rest of the regular season, so it was the Tigers who represented the SEC West in the league title game.

''I'd be honored to face that team again,'' LSU coach Les Miles said after the victory over the Crimson Tide.

What Happened Next: Alabama fell only one spot to No. 3 in the BCS standings after losing to LSU, but there were a few undefeated teams still to contend with - Oklahoma State at No. 2, Stanford at No. 4 and even Boise State at No. 5. Stanford and Boise State lost the following weekend, and Oklahoma State's double-overtime loss to Iowa State on Nov. 18 opened the door for an LSU-Alabama rematch in the BCS title game.

The Final Result: In another defensive struggle, Alabama held LSU to five first downs, beating the Tigers 21-0 to claim the national title.

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Navy going to Armed Forces Bowl against Louisiana Tech
December 4, 2016

FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) Navy (9-3, American Athletic Conference) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-5, Conference USA), Dec. 23, 4:30 p.m.

LOCATION: Fort Worth, Texas

TOP PLAYERS

Navy: QB Will Worth, 1,397 yards, eight TDs passing; 1,196 yards, 25 TDs rushing.

Louisiana Tech: QB Ryan Higgins, 4,208 yards, 37 TDs, eight interceptions passing; 284 yards, three TDs rushing.

NOTABLE

Navy: The Midshipmen were contractually obligated before the season to play in the Armed Forces Bowl, if they were bowl eligible. Navy lost the American Athletic Conference championship game to Temple, and still has its annual game against Army to play next Saturday.

Louisiana Tech: Had a seven-game winning streak before losing their regular-season finale at Southern Miss and then at Western Kentucky in the Conference USA championship game.

LAST TIME

Navy 37, Louisiana Tech 23, Sept. 18, 2010.

BOWL HISTORY

Navy: This is the 13th bowl in 14 seasons for Navy after a 17-year postseason drought. Also 22nd bowl overall, including an Armed Forces Bowl victory over Middle Tennessee three years ago.

Louisiana Tech: Third consecutive bowl, and ninth overall

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Mississippi State, North Texas headed to bowls at 5-7
December 4, 2016

Mississippi State and North Texas are heading to bowls with 5-7 records.

North Texas is even facing a team it already played six weeks ago.

With 80 bowl spots to fill, some postseason games ended up with odd matchups - and teams with losing records. It's similar to last year, when there when there also weren't enough .500 teams to fill all the spots.

North Texas faces Army in the Heart of Dallas Bowl on Dec. 27. It's a rematch of their game at Army on Oct. 22, which North Texas won 35-18.

Mississippi State takes on Miami (Ohio) in the St. Petersburg Bowl on Dec. 26.

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Hot K-State, cold Aggies will square off in Texas Bowl
December 4, 2016

Kansas State (8-4, Big 12) vs. Texas A&M (8-4, SEC), Dec. 28, 9 p.m. EST.

LOCATION: Houston.

TOP PLAYERS:

Kansas State: Jesse Ertz is the leading rusher among Big 12 QBs with 945 yards and 10 TDs; DL Jordan Willis leads the conference with 11.5 sacks.

Texas A&M: QB Trevor Knight is throwing for 212 yards a game, with 16 touchdowns; freshman RB Trayveon Williams is a 1,000-yard rusher and DL Myles Garrett has 8.5 sacks.

NOTABLE:

Kansas State: The Wildcats finished fourth in the Big 12 after having been picked eighth in the preseason. They've won five of their last six games and have gone over 200 yards rushing in six straight.

Texas A&M: Aggies are third in the SEC at 35.4 points and 468 yards a game but lost four of six after a 6-0 start.

LAST TIME: In their last meeting before the Aggies left the Big 12 for the SEC, Collin Klein scored on a sneak in the fourth overtime for his sixth TD of the game to give Kansas State a 53-50 home victory in 2011.

BOWL HISTORY

Kansas State: The Wildcats are in a bowl for a seventh straight season and are 7-12 all time. They played in the inaugural Texas Bowl in 2006, losing to Rutgers.

Texas A&M: Aggies are 17-20 and in a bowl for a school-record eighth straight year. They had won four straight before losing to Louisville in the Music City Bowl last year.

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Idaho reaches bowl as it gets ready for farewell FBS season
December 7, 2016

It's been a rough year for the Idaho football program, but the Vandals are ending it on a high note.

Idaho (8-4) has qualified for a bowl game in what is its second-to-last year playing major college football.

The Vandals were unceremoniously kicked out of the Sun Belt Conference earlier this year, and the administration decided it had had enough of FBS football and chose to become the first program in modern times to voluntarily drop to the FCS ranks.

In two decades as an FBS program, Idaho has qualified for a bowl only three times. The Vandals will face Colorado State on Dec. 22 at the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl in Boise, Idaho. Their other bowl appearances have been in Boise as well.

Coach Paul Petrino acknowledged it is sweet vindication to reach the postseason.

''It was a great feeling,'' Petrino said. ''That's one reason I'm so proud of our players. They've been kicked out of a conference and told they were going to change divisions. They never worried about that. They worried about playing one game at a time.''

Idaho won six of its final seven games to finish with a 6-2 mark in the Sun Belt, a collection of teams in the southeastern U.S. whose closest member is 2,000 miles from the Vandals' campus in tiny Moscow, Idaho.

The Sun Belt found that it didn't need Idaho or New Mexico State any longer in order to host a conference championship game and gave both the boot earlier this year.

Idaho President Chuck Staben decided the two-decade experiment as an FBS program was producing only high expenses, with few wins and few fans to compensate. The Vandals averaged fewer than three wins per season as an FBS program since 1996, with eight 10-loss seasons.

Crowds were sparse in the 16,000-seat Kibbiedome, a giant wooden stadium built in the shape of a Quonset hut.

After next season, the Vandals will return to the FCS Big Sky Conference, a league they dominated in the 1980s and early 1990s.

That will mean lower overall costs, especially with 22 fewer scholarships to provide, and lower travel costs.

Staben said there was no chance the decision will be revisited now.

''In the long term, this well-deserved bowl invitation does not change factors that informed our decision to join the Big Sky after the 2017-2018 season, versus pursuing an unsustainable future as an FBS independent team,'' Staben said.

''Right now, we're focused on celebrating the accomplishments of our student-athletes,'' Staben added.

With all the turmoil surrounding them, you might have thought the Vandals would resume their losing ways, and at first they did.

They opened the season with a victory over Montana State then were blown out by No. 4 Washington and Washington State of the Pac-12. They improved after that and finished the season with a four-game winning streak.

''We played two tough Pac-12 teams and got our butts whupped a little bit,'' said Petrino, the brother of Louisville coach Bobby Petrino. ''Our guys just kept fighting. Our kids got better and better. They found a way to win games.''

The Vandals are led by junior quarterback Matt Linehan, a son of Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator and former Vandal quarterback Scott Linehan.

Matt Linehan said the Vandals were pleased to be headed to Boise, a city where they have a lot of alumni and are likely to draw a big, friendly crowd.

''It didn't matter what bowl we were going to,'' Linehan said. ''There was just a sigh of relief that we knew we were going.''

Linehan has thrown for 2,803 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this season. Five of his receivers have caught passes for at least 350 yards.

Vandals players expressed satisfaction that the game will be the only televised bowl game on Dec. 22 and will be broadcast nationwide on ESPN.

''This is my first time ever playing in a nationally televised game,'' said defensive back Jayshawn Jordan. ''It's a great way to end my college career.''

Linehan and other Vandals players have endured some lean seasons, and appreciate the success now.

''We've gone through enough adversity to fight through it,'' Linehan said. ''We're happy to be here at this point.''

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Bowl Unders to Watch
December 12, 2016

Defenses Likely To Rule In Military, Outback Bowls

College football fans love up-tempo offenses and high-scoring games. The days of "three yards and a cloud of dust" in the Big Ten or the best teams in the Big 12 running the wishbone are long gone. Now it's all about spread offenses and scoring at will. For the first time ever, BetOnline opened a college football total at 90 in the 2016 regular season.

Because fans love scoring, college athletic directors and presidents love it too because they want to keep the stands full and the boosters happy so they will keep giving money. Thus, nearly every new head coaching hire around the country these days is an offensive mind -- like Oregon luring South Florida's Willie Taggert, for example.

But there are two games on the bowl schedule that stand apart from these offensive trends, and they have easily the lowest totals on the BetOnline betting board with both at 40.5:

Dec. 27 - Military Bowl from Annapolis: No. 24 Temple vs. Wake Forest
Jan. 2 - Outback Bowl from Tampa: No. 17 Florida vs. Iowa

The Owls (10-3) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game over a high-powered Navy offense, 34-10, by holding the Middies to 306 total yards and 168 rushing. The Midshipmen had scored on 34 of 38 drives, including three touchdowns, before being shut out on their first three possessions by Temple, which won its first league title since 1967.

The architect of that Owls defense, head coach Matt Rhule, already has left the program to take over the top job at Baylor -- an interesting fit considering Baylor has been one of the premier up-tempo offensive teams in the country this decade. Assistant head coach Ed Foley will coach Temple in the bowl game.

The Owls are 13-point favorites and they have the best ATS record in college football at 12-1 -- including an amazing 12 straight covers, a first this decade by any team. Wake Forest (6-6) is in its first bowl game since 2011. While Temple can put up some points, the Deacons averaged just 19.3 this season, 124th nationally.

In one of the ugliest games of the year, Wake opened the season with a 7-3 win over Tulane. But Wake can defend, allowing 21.8 points. Temple and Wake Forest have met just once; a 36-0 Temple victory in Philadelphia on Nov. 1, 1930.

As for the Outback Bowl, Florida (8-4) will play only a two-hour drive or so south of its campus in Gainesville. This season in many ways mirrored 2015 for the Gators.

They won a very weak SEC East Division on the back of their defense, but then their offense was dominated in a blowout loss to Florida State to close the regular season and then against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.

UF totaled 468 yards in those defeats this year. Florida averages just 23.3 points (114th) but allows only 17.9 (10th).

Iowa (8-4) was sitting at 5-4 in early November and potentially looking at sitting out the bowl season a year after playing in the Big Ten Championship Game for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

But the Hawkeyes' defense rose to the occasion in the final three games in allowing just 23 total points in wins over No. 3 Michigan, Illinois and No. 16 Nebraska, the latter two blowout wins.

The Hawkeyes have one of the nation's best defensive backs in All-American Desmond King, the 2015 Thorpe Award winner. Just like Florida, Iowa allows just 17.9 points this season.

So first one to 18 should win the Outback Bowl. The Gators and Hawkeyes last played in the Outback Bowl following the 2005 season. UF won 31-24. Florida is a 2.5-point favorite at BetOnline.

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College Bowl Trends
December 11, 2016

For the longest time College Bowl games played before New Year’s Day were deemed minor bowls. Those played from January 1st out were the main or major bowl games.

That all changed when cable television entered the fray. Today, in order to fill a need for cable television broadcasting rights, there are no less than a whopping 40 bowl games, only to conclude with the College Football Playoff championship game on January 9th.

Hence, a handful of bowl games on the docket prior to New Year’s Day are considered of the heavyweight variety. Nonetheless, the bowl games are still primarily populated by two classes of teams: those who suffered disturbing late losses and fell out of major bowl consideration, and those who scraped and clawed and earned a bowl bid thanks to a strong second-half effort.

Let take a look this year’s bowl card shapes up. I’ll return next week and an in-depth look at the New Year’s Six and College Football Playoff games.

Conference Call

Like teams and coaches, conferences too develop bowl personalities.

Our database dug deep and found these noteworthy ‘best and worst’ conference trends. All results are ATS dating back as far as 1980, unless noted otherwise.

ACC
Best: 9-1 ATS dog of more than 4 points versus opponents off a SU win: Memphis
Worst: 2-10 ATS versus opponents off a SU favorite loss (Temple and Tulsa)

Big Ten
Best: 7-1 ATS off double-digit ATS win (Iowa)
Worst: 3-9 ATS versus opponent off SU favorite loss (Nebraska)

Big 12
Best: 5-1 ATS off SU underdog win (Kansas State)
Worst: 2-17 ATS as favorites of less than 8 points if scored 35 or more points last game (Oklahoma)

C-USA
Best: 16-4 ATS off double-digit loss (North Texas)
Worst: 1-11 ATS as dogs versus opponent off SU underdog win (Texas San Antonio)

Independent
Best: 7-1 ATS versus opponent off SUATS loss (Army)
Worst: 5-13 ATS versus opponent off SUATS win (BYU)

MAC
Best: 4-0 ATS off SU underdog win versus opponent off SU win (Eastern Michigan)
Worst: 3-13 ATS off double-digit loss (Toledo)

MWC
Best: 9-2 ATS as underdog versus opponent off SU loss (San Diego State)
Worst: 1-7 ATS as favorites of more the 3 points versus opponents off ATS win (Boise State, Colorado State, New Mexico)

PAC 12
Best: 9-1 ATS as underdogs off consecutive wins (Washington)
Worst: 1-6 ATS versus opponents off SU underdog win (USC)

SEC
Best: 16-4 ATS as underdogs of more than 4 points off a SU loss (Arkansas, Auburn, South Carolina)
Worst: 2-8 ATS as double-digit favorites off a double-digit SU win (Alabama, Mississippi State)

Sun Belt
Best: 8-1 ATS as underdogs of 8 or less points versus .500 or greater opponents (Appalachian State, Arkansas State, La Lafayette)
Worst: 1-6 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points (Troy)

Second-Half Ups and Downs

The bowl team whose second half overall stats (from Game 7 out as opposed to the first six games of the season) improved the most was Idaho (surprise), whose +116 net yards per game improvement tops the pack.

Right on their heels was Appalachian State at +92 net yards per contest over the 2nd half of the season.

The bowl team whose overall team stats regressed the most from Game 7 out was Florida, who slipped a whopping -137 net YPG during the 2nd half of the campaign.

Nipping right on the Gators’ heels was Baylor as the Bears went backwards -135 net yards per game during their dramatic 0-6 SUATS season ending collapse.

In The Stats

Speaking of stat performances this season, the best teams overall ITS (In The Stats) in games against fellow bowl teams was (no surprise) Alabama, who was 10-0 ITS.

Other perfect ITS performers include Toledo (6-0), along with Houston and Miami Ohio (5-0 each).

Bowl teams that were beat up ITS against other bowl teams were Maryland (0-7), along with Hawaii and Memphis (each 0-5).

Tale Of The Tape

Another interesting slant is weighing teams and their performance in games against other fellow bowl teams this season.

The best bowl spread beaters against other bowl foes were Eastern Michigan and Temple, both going 5-1 ATS.

The biggest bowl spread money loser was Maryland at 0-7 ATS.

In games “In The Stats” (net overall yards versus opponent’s net overall yards), the biggest bowler Yards Per Game stat winner was Alabama (+247 net yards per game, with both Clemson and Louisville earning runner-up honors at +160 net YPG each.

Pre-New Year’s Day bowlers that got trounced on the field, or the biggest Yards Per Game stat loser was Maryland at -199 net YPG, with Boston College and Wake Forest in the neighborhood at -162 and -156 net YPG respectively.

You Gotta Be Kidding

Our well-oiled machine notes that if you were to simply pick the winner of a bowl game and you will likely beat the spread as well.

That’s confirmed by the fact that straight up bowl winners are 737-117-12 ATS in all bowl games since 1980. Now go find a winner.

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College Bowl Pick 'em
December 10, 2016

The 2016-17 bowl lineup is out with 40 games to watch over the next few weeks leading to the National Championship game in Tampa on Monday January 9. Alabama is the favorite to win it all as the Crimson Tide face Washington in one of two college football playoff games on New Year’s Eve.

During the holiday season, bettors have the opportunity to earn extra cash with "College Bowl Pick ‘em" contests where all you have to do is pick the winner, which isn’t as easy as it looks.

The most popular contest has you picking the winner of all 40 Bowl games and ranking them with confidence, starting with 40 as the most confident pick and counting all the way down to 1 as least confident.

Since Alabama is the overwhelming favorite to win it all, while laying 16 points in the Peach Bowl against Washington, I have selected the Crimson Tide as my most confident team to win its bowl at 40. Even though the Huskies have put together a terrific season at 12-1, it’s hard to see them traveling cross-country to Atlanta to pull off the upset of the Crimson Tide.

Michigan fell short of the college football playoff with its late-season loss to Ohio State, as the Wolverines were relegated to the Orange Bowl. The Wolverines will face Florida State as seven-point favorites on December 30 in Miami, as Michigan’s two losses this season came by a combined six points to Ohio State and Iowa. The Seminoles put up a dud in last season’s Chick-Fil-A Bowl loss to Houston, but are riding a four-game winning streak.

In Jim Harbaugh’s last two bowl games as head coach of Stanford in 2010 and Michigan last season, his teams have won by a combined score of 81-19. I’ve ranked Michigan at a 37 to win the Orange Bowl, sitting behind Air Force (39) and New Mexico (38) on the confidence meter.

Below are all 40 bowls ranked from 40-1. Happy Bowl Season!

2016-17 COLLEGE BOWL PICK 'EM STRAIGHT UP

Point Value Bowl Game Matchup Prediction

40 Peach Bowl Alabama vs. Washington Alabama

39 Arizona Bowl Air Force vs. South Alabama Air Force

38 New Mexico Bowl Texas-San Antonio vs. New Mexico New Mexico

37 Orange Bowl Florida State vs. Michigan Michigan

36 Rose Bowl Penn State vs. USC USC

35 Miami Beach Bowl Central Michigan vs. Tulsa Tulsa

34 Holiday Bowl Minnesota vs. Washington State Washington State

33 Idaho Potato Bowl Idaho vs. Colorado State Colorado State

32 Military Bowl Wake Forest vs. Temple Temple

31 Foster Farms Bowl Indiana vs. Utah Utah

30 St. Petersburg Bowl Miami-Ohio vs. Mississippi State Mississippi State

29 Bahamas Bowl Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion Old Dominion

28 Hawaii Bowl Hawai'i vs. Middle Tennessee Middle Tennessee

27 Cactus Bowl Baylor vs. Boise State Boise State

26 Russell Athletic Bowl West Virginia vs. Miami-Florida West Virginia

25 Las Vegas Bowl Houston vs. San Diego State San Diego State

24 Independence Bowl North Carolina State vs. Vanderbilt North Carolina State

23 Birmingham Bowl South Carolina vs. South Florida South Florida

22 Quick Lane Bowl Maryland vs. Boston College Maryland

21 Sugar Bowl Auburn vs. Oklahoma Oklahoma

20 Armed Forces Bowl Louisiana Tech vs. Navy Louisiana Tech

19 Citrus Bowl LSU vs. Louisville Louisville

18 Dollar General Bowl Ohio vs. Troy Troy

17 Pinstripe Bowl Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh Northwestern

15 Outback Bowl Iowa vs. Florida Iowa

16 Cotton Bowl Classic Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin Western Michigan

15 Outback Bowl Iowa vs. Florida Iowa

14 TaxSlayer Bowl Kentucky vs. Georgia Tech Kentucky

13 Music City Bowl Nebraska vs. Tennessee Nebraska

12 Fiesta Bowl Ohio State vs. Clemson Clemson

11 Heart of Dallas Bowl Army vs. North Texas Army

10 Poinsettia Bowl BYU vs. Wyoming BYU

9 Boca Raton Bowl Memphis vs. Western Kentucky Memphis

8 Texas Bowl Kansas State vs. Texas A&M Kansas State

7 Camellia Bowl Appalachian State vs. Toledo Toledo Rockets

6 New Orleans Bowl Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana Lafayette Louisiana Lafayette

5 Sun Bowl Stanford vs. North Carolina Stanford

4 Cure Bowl Central Florida vs. Arkansas State Arkansas State

3 Alamo Bowl Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Colorado

2 Liberty Bowl TCU vs. Georgia Georgia

1 Belk Bowl Arkansas vs. Virginia Tech Virginia Tech

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Bowl game writeups

Dec 17

New Mexico Bowl: Tex-San Antonio @ New Mexico

New Mexico stays at home for this bowl, its 4th bowl in last 11 years, all here in Albuquerque. Lobos won six of last seven games to finish 8-4; they’re 5-1 at home, 1-2 as a home favorite- their only home loss was 49-21 to Boise State. New Mexico likes to run ball; they ran for 300+ yards in seven games this year, had an astounding 568 rushing yards in 56-35 win in its finale vs Wyoming. UTSA’s QB is Dalton Sturm, named after Patrick Swayze’s character in Road House; Roadrunners are in first-ever bowl- they went 5-3 in last eight games, covered four of last five- none of their last eight opponents ran for more than 180 yards. New Mexico is 3-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread; UTSA is 2-2. C-USA non-conference road underdogs are 9-11 vs spread. Mountain West home favorites are 9-14. Mountain West team covered this bowl the last four years, with underdogs 3-1 vs spread in those games.

Las Vegas Bowl: Houston-San Diego State

Houston started season with upset of Oklahoma, then upset Louisville later in season, but they also lost to Navy-SMU-Memphis and now they’re in a lesser bowl than they thought and their coach is off to Texas, taking lot of assistants with him. Cougars scored 35-38 points to post upset wins in bowls the last two years; senior QB Ward (also leading rusher) needs a big game here. Houston is 9-0 when they allow less than 38 points, 0-3 when they give up 38+; Cougars are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games as a favorite. San Diego State lost its last two games, allowing 97 points; they’re 2-3 in bowls the last five years- they play on this field every other year- Aztecs beat UNLV here 52-14 LY. RB Pumphrey is one of nation’s best; Aztecs are 9-0 when they run for 200+ yards, 0-3 vs D-I teams when they do not. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread this season; Mountain West underdogs are 5-12.

Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State-Toledo

Toledo won three of its last four bowls, beating Temple LY; Rockets scored 32+ points in four of last five (3-2) bowl games. Toledo is 2-1-1 vs spread in games with a single digit spread; they allowed 249+ rushing yards in all three of their losses- they’re 9-0 when allowing less than 249 YR. Appalachian State won 31-29 over Ohio in this game LY, ASU’s first-ever bowl. Mountaineers won eight of last nine games this year after a 1-2 start, with loss to Troy; they’re 2-2 vs spread in games with a single-digit pointspread. ASU lost its season opener in OT at Tennessee. Junior QB Lamb is a 3-year starter for App State. Sun Belt teams are 8-7 in last 15 games with MAC opponents; Toledo opened this year with a 31-10 win over Arkansas State. App State won 45-38 at Akron in September. This is third Camellia Bowl; MAC/Sun Belt split first two, with totals of 61-60.

Cure Bowl, Orlando: Central Florida-Arkansas State

Central Florida was 0-12 LY after being 31-9 the three years before that, now they’re favored in a bowl game. Knights won three of their last four bowls, are playing in hometown here. UCF is 6-6 this year, 4-2 vs number in games with single-digit spread, 4-1 as a favorite- they lost last two games, allowing 83 points. Arkansas State is playing in its sixth straight bowl (under four different HC’s); they’re 0-2 in bowls under Anderson, losing 63-44/47-28. ASU is 7-5 this season after an 0-4 start that included a loss to a I-AA team. Red Wolves are 2-2 as underdogs this season. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 6-1 in UCF’s last eight games. Last two years, AAC teams are 4-2 vs spread when playing Sun Belt teams. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-9 vs spread this year. Sun Belt underdogs are 13-13. This is only second Cure Bowl, so no history to lean on here.

New Orleans Bowl: Southern Mississippi/UL-Lafayette

UL-Lafayette is playing in this bowl for 5th time in last six years; they won previous four, and were underdog three times- those are ULL’s only bowl appearances. Lot of people will make the trip east from Lafayette. ULL is 4-2 as an underdog this year, 7-2 vs number in games with a single-digit spread. ULL QB Jennings started 14 games for LSU before transferring. Southern Miss lost three of last four games, covered one of last eight; they had to beat La Tech as a 14-point dog to get bowl eligible. USM lost as a 10-point favorite to Troy of Sun Belt. Golden Eagles are 1-6 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games with a single digit spread- they’re 1-3 in last four bowl games, they split two trips to this bowl in 2008-09. Underdogs won this bowl SU three of last five years; Sun Belt teams won four of the five.

Dec 19

Miami Beach Bowl: Central Michigan-Tulsa

Central Michigan lost 49-48/21-14 in bowls last two years; Chippewas are 3-6 overall in bowls, with four of last five decided by 3 or less points. CMU is 4-2 in games decided by 7 or less points. Tulsa is over .500 for first time in four years; they’re 3-2 in last five bowls, losing 55-52 to Va Tech LY. Chippewas lost four of last five games but did win at Oklahoma State; CMU is 1-2 as an underdog this year, 2-3 in games with double digit spread. Tulsa is 4-4 as a favorite this year, 2-4 vs number in games with double digit spread- they allowed 30+ points in six of last nine games. Favorite won/covered this bowl in first two years, with totals of 80-103. Weather isn’t a factor, being domed stadium. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 15-11.

Dec 20

Boca Raton Bowl: Memphis-Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky won its last seven games after a 3-3 start, with five of last six wins by 35+ points, but WKU lost its coach to Purdue; they’re 5-4 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games wth single digit spread. Memphis is 1-2 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Tigers allowed 42+ points in all four losses; they’re 7-0 when allowing less than 42 points. Memphis lost three of last four bowls, allowing 41 ots/game; they beat BYU in OT in nearly Miami two years ago. Hilltoppers won 49-48/45-35 in bowl games last two years; this is their 4th bowl in last five years. C-USA non-conference favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AAC underdogs are 7-10. AAC teams are 8-5 vs spread in last 13 games vs Conference USA opponents. Over is 7-3 in last ten Memphis games, 6-2 in last eight WKU games.

Dec 21

Poinsettia Bowl: BYU-Wyoming

No love lost between these old conference rivals, who last met in 2010; BYU won last seven meetings, last four by average score of 39-8, but that was long time ago. BYU is 8-4 this year, with four losses by total of 8 points. Cougars are 4-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, 6-2-1 in games with a single digit pointspread. Because they’re an independent, most of their tougher games were earlier this season. Wyoming was 15-33 the previous four years; they’re 8-5 this season, losing last two games while allowing 83 points, 810 rushing yards. This is Wyoming’s first bowl in five years, and Bohl’s first bowl; he won multiple national titles at I-AA level. BYU lost its last three bowls, allowing 40.3 pts/game; favorites covered their last five bowl games. Two of Cowboys’ last three games were against San Diego State, but both were in Laramie. BYU won this bowl in 2012; Mountain West teams are 3-2 in last five Poinsettia Bowls.

Dec 22

Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise: Colorado State-Idaho

Idaho is dropping back to I-AA football after next season, so this has special meaning for them; it is Vandals’ first bowl since 2009, just their third bowl ever (2-0, both in this game). Idaho’s QB is Matt Linehan, whose dad is Cowboys’ OC. Vandals won their last three games, covered their last six; they’re 4-3 as an underdog this year, 2-3 in games with double digit spread. Colorado State is in its 4th straight bowl; they’re 7-5 SU, covering their last seven games. Rams are 2-2 as a favorite, 5-0 vs spread in games with double figure spread. Sun Belt underdogs are 12-12 vs spread; Mountain West favorites are 8-8. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl the last five years; Mountain West teams won three of last four Potato Bowls. Sun Belt teams are 7-5 vs spread in last dozen games against Mountain West opponents.

Dec 23

Popeye’s Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan-Old Dominion

First-ever bowl for Old Dominion, which is in its third year of I-A football; first bowl for Eastern Michigan since 1987, their first/only bowl. EMU was 7-41 the last four years, jumped to 7-5 this year; Eagles are 8-2 vs spread in last ten games, 7-2 as an underdog, 6-2 in games with single digit spread. Four of EMU’s five losses are by 13+ points; five of their six I-A wins are by 7 or less. Old Dominion won its last five games (4-0-1 vs spread), scoring 41 pts/game; they’re 7-0-1 as a favorite this year, 6-0 in games with single digit spread. ODU’s senior QB Washington threw 28 TD’s with only four INTs; he is Monarchs’ 3rd-leading rusher. MAC teams are 14-7-1 vs spread in last 22 games vs C-USA opponents. Under is 8-2 in last ten EMU games, 0-3 in Monarchs’ last three games. First two Bahamas Bowls ended 49-48/45-31; this should be good.

Dollar General Bowl, Mobile AL; Ohio-Troy

This is first bowl in six years for Troy, which should have crowd edge given Mobile site; Trojans are 2-3 in bowls, with two of those games going OT. Ohio coach Solich (ex-Nebraska HC) is 4-8 in bowl games; Bobcats are 2-7 in bowls, losing last two 37-20/31-29- this is their 5th bowl in last six years. Ohio is 8-5 this year, 3-0 vs spread as an underdog, 3-2 in games with single digit spread- they used two QBs, a freshman and senior with mixed results. Troy lost two of last three games after an 8-1 start; they’re 4-5 as a favorite this year, 2-5 vs spread in last seven games, 1-3 in games with single digit spread- their junior QB is a 3-year starter. Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 3-3 vs spread; MAC underdogs are 15-11. Under is 10-0-1 in Bobcats last 11 games, 6-2-1 in Troy’s last nine. Underdogs are 3-2 SU in this bowl the last five years; Sun Belt teams won three of last four.

Dec 24

Hawai’i Bowl: Middle Tennessee @ Hawai’i

No line yet on this game because of unknown status of Middle Tennessee QB Stockstill. Blue Raiders are 4-5 as a favorite this year, 2-3 in games with single digit pointspread- they won their last game 77-56 over FAU. Hawai’i went 11-39 the last four years, is 6-7 now and is somehow in a bowl. Hawai’i allowed 40+ points seven times this year; they won last two games, but are 2-4 in games with a single digit pointspread. Rainbows lost last three bowls, allowing 50.7 pts/game- except for their great ’07 season their last four bowls have all been here, on their home field. Six of last seven MTSU games, five of last seven Hawai’i games went over total. Favorites won/covered last three Hawai’i Bowls. last four of which were all decided by 15+ points. Mountain West teams lost four of last five appearances in this game.

Dec 26

St Petersburg Bowl, Tropicana Field: Miami OH-Mississippi State

Miami was 0-6 at one point this year, in midst of a 4-year, 5-37 skid, then they won their last six games and are here- this Redhawks’ first bowl since 2010, their 2nd since ’04- they’ve got to be really excited. Miami is 5-2 as an underdog this year, 4-1 in games with a double digit spread. A 12-point favorite from the SEC with an 11am kickoff? Hmmm. Mississippi State is 3-2 in its last five bowls, scoring 44-34-51 the last three years, but that was with Dak Prescott at QB. Under is 7-3 in last ten Miami games, 0-6 in Bulldogs’ last six. SEC non-conference favorites are 10-18 vs spread this year; MAC underdogs are 15-11. Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years; MAC teams lost by 17-21 in last two appearances here. The game is in a dome; weather isn’t a concern, but it also is a baseball field- average total in this bowl last five years: 45.8.

Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit: Maryland-Boston College

In one three-game stretch in November, Maryland was outscored 149-13, but here they are, favored in a bowl. Terps are favored for first time since Oct 15 vs Minnesota (they lost 31-10). Maryland lost 31-20/45-21 in its last two bowls; their last bowl win was 2010. Boston College lost its last five bowl games (after winning 8 in row); their last bowl win was in in 2007. BC had to beat UConn/Wake Forest just to get to 6-6; Eagles are 3-3 as an underdog, 3-2 in games with a single digit spread; Maryland is 2-2 as a favorite, 1-3 in games with single digit spread. Underdog won this bowl SU three of last four years; Big 14 teams are 3-0 in this bowl the last five years. This season, ACC underdogs are 7-4 vs spread; Big 14 favorites are 15-11. This game is living proof there are too many bowl games.

Independence Bowl, Shreveport: NC State-Vanderbilt

Last five years, SEC teams are 10-4 vs ACC teams in bowls; ACC teams covered one of the three they were favored in. Vanderbilt is in its first bowl since 2013, when James Franklin was coach- they won last two bowls, are 4-2-1 all-time in bowls. NC State is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they lost 51-28 in Belk Bowl LY. Wolfpack are 2-5 in last seven games; they lost four in row at one point. State is 4-2 as a favorite, 3-2 in games with single digit spread. Vandy is 6-3 as an underdog this season, 4-4 in games with single digit spread. This season, ACC favorites are 17-9 vs spread; SEC underdogs are 5-3. Under is 7-1 in NC State’s last eight games, 5-3 in Sandy’s last eight. Vanderbilt (-7.5) beat NC State 38-24 at home in Music City Bowl in 2012; neither HC was here back then. Doeren is 2-1 in bowl games. Underdogs covered this bowl three of the last four years.

Dec 27

Heart of Dallas Bowl, Cotton Bowl: Army-North Texas

North Texas (+16.5) went to West Point Oct 22 and upset Army 35-18; UNT was +6 in turnovers in game where Cadets outgained North Texas 396-320- this is the only rematch of bowl season. This is unusual bowl: favorites won/covered this game the last five years, with all five games decided by 13+ points. North Texas beat UNLV 36-14 here three years ago, their only bowl since 2004. UNT is 2-5 all-time in bowls. Army is in its first bowl since 2010; they’re 3-2 all-time in bowls, with two losses by total of four points. Mean Green lost four of last five games; they’re 5-7 but the three 5-7 teams won their bowls last year. Conference USA non-conference underdogs are 9-11 vs spread this year. Under is 5-3 in last eight North Texas games.

Military Bowl, Annapolis: Wake Forest-Temple

Laying 13 points in a bowl with a team whose coach bolted for greener pa$ture$ is dangerous and not a great idea. Temple covered its last 11 games, is 10-3 SU, but Rhule is the new coach at Baylor now. Owls 6-1 as favorites this year, 6-1 in games with double digit spread- they won their last seven games, last six by 16+ points. Wake Forest is 6-6 but lost its last three games, scoring only 13 pts/game; Deacons are 5-1 as an underdog this year, 3-3 in games with a double digit spread. Wake is in its first bowl since 2011; they’ll be excited. Deacons covered four of last five bowls. Favorites covered this bowl three of last four years. ACC teams lost here two of last three years. Under is 5-1-1 in Wake’s last seven games, 5-0 in Temple’s last five. AAC favorites are 10-7 vs spread this year; ACC underdogs are 7-4.

Holiday Bowl, San Diego: Washington State-Minnesota

Underdogs covered last four Holiday Bowls, winning three SU. Pac-12 teams are 1-4 in this game the last five years. This year, Washington State lost its first two games, its last two games but went 8-0 in between; Coogs are 3-3 as favorites this year, 2-4 in games with a single digit spread. Minnesota is 2-2-1 as an underdog, 3-3 in games with a single digit spread. Leach is 6-5 in bowls, 1-1 here; Wazzu is 7-5 overall in bowls. Gophers are in 5th straight bowl; they’re 1-3 in last four bowls, ending skid with win over Central Michigan LY. Coogs are 1-3 this year when scoring less than 30 points; Minnesota held nine of 12 opponents under 30. Last two years, Pac-12 teams are 3-8 vs Big 14 teams- they’re 4-8-1 vs spread in last 13 games when favored against a Big 14 squad. Over is 6-3 in Coogs’ last nine games, 4-2 in Gophers’ last six.

Cactus Bowl, Chase Field- Phoenix: Boise State-Baylor

Baylor started season 6-0, wound up 6-6; now they’ve hired Temple coach Rhule; not sure how it affects this game. Bears allowed 32.8 pts/game during its skid. Baylor was 3-2 in its last five bowls under Briles, with average total of 92.4. Baylor is 1-1 as an underdog, 1-4 in games with a single digit spread. Boise State is 10-2, covered one of its last seven games; they’re 4-8 vs spread, 0-2 in games with single digit spread. Broncos won four of last five bowls, scoring 40 pts/game; they won 55-7/38-30 in last two bowls. Underdogs covered three of last four Cactus Bowls; Big 12 teams are 4-1 in this game the last five years. Under is 7-4 in Baylor games this year, three of last four Boise games went over. Big X underdogs are 2-4 this season; Mountain West favorites are 8-8.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Betting Report
December 14, 2016

About a week since the matchups were announced and less than three weeks before the games will be played, the betting market seems to have found the right numbers for the two 2016 College Football Playoff semifinals.

No. 1 Alabama, far and away the top team on every bookmaker’s power ratings, opened Dec. 4 at the Wynn as a 13.5-point favorite against Washington in the Peach Bowl. That line drew immediate action from bettors looking to lay the points, and by the next day, the Crimson Tide had been bet up to -16, the number at which underdog bettors got involved.

“A lot of money on Alabama going up and some pretty good sized bets on Washington (at the bigger numbers), so we settled at 15.5,” John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Wynn, said this Tuesday. “That’s the biggest betting game so far (of the 2016-17 bowl game slate).”

Avello, who said his book is relatively balanced on the game, doubts the buy-back on Washington +16 came from wiseguys playing the number.

“I don’t think the wiseguys (laying the points with ‘Bama) would be interested again until you hit 17,” he said.

CG Technology, meanwhile, was on the low end of the market when wagering opened but ended up at 15.5, along with most of its competing bet shops.

CG tested the market by dealing Alabama in the -10.5, -11 range on look-ahead lines on the Tide’s potential matchup with Washington. Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG, said his group “took some Alabama money (at those prices) but nothing out of control.”

So when the Huskies were unveiled as Alabama’s opponent, CG opened the game 11.5.

”That lasted all of like five minutes,” Simbal said Tuesday. “Some other books opened 13.5, 14, so we quickly followed them to that number, and (bettors) kept laying Alabama. The peak we’ve been at is 15.5, which is where we are now, and it’s been pretty crazy movement to get there. ... They laid it up to 15.5, and then they bought back Washington to 15, and then they laid Alabama again at 15. ...

“At 15.5 is where we stopped getting one-sided action. The Alabama folks seems to be willing to lay 15 and the Washington folks seem willing to take 16, so it’s kind of quiet at this number.”

Public bettors, as is to be expected, have been playing Washington at about 6/1 odds on the money-line, setting up a big-game scenario with which bookmakers are familiar.

“Kind of like the Super Bowl, where we need the favorite to win without covering,” Simbal envisions as the position CG will be on New Year’s Eve.

Ohio State (-3/-120) vs. Clemson, Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Saturday, Dec. 31

As it does with the Peach Bowl, early action on the Fiesta Bowl, the second national semifinal set for Dec. 31, indicates the number is around where it needs to be: Ohio State -3 (-120) at most shops and -3.5 at the Westgate SuperBook (Ohio State bettors in Las Vegas should head to the South Point, which currently has OSU -3 and whose policy it is to never to come off the standard -110 vig).

CG opened Ohio State -3.5, the Wynn CG hung -2.5, and naturally, CG took dog action and the Wynn got money on the chalk. As of this writing, CG is dealing OSU -3 (-115), while the Wynn has -3 (-120).

“We took some Clemson action right away when we opened 3.5, but since we moved to 3, it’s been really good two-way action,” Simbal said. “Not a ton of sharp play on the game at all. It’s been mostly public two-way action.”

Said Avello, “We opened that game 2.5 and we’re up to 3 and trending a little higher because of Ohio State money, but we haven’t gotten off that number.”

Both Fiesta Bowl participants have been burning money at the bet window most of the season – Ohio State is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games, Clemson is on a 2-5 ATS run.

Avello, though, believes the Tigers are in better form ahead of this matchup.

“I respect the Ohio State coach (Urban Meyer),” Avello said. “He’s been there before, he wins a lot of football games, but I don’t know if this team is as talented as the Ohio State team that won a national championship a few years ago. You look at the end of the Ohio State season – Michigan State could have beaten them, they ended up winning by a point; Michigan was a double-overtime game. They’ve had their scares this year – Penn State beat them, Northwestern gave them a tough game.”

While Meyer is tough to beat with so much time to prepare, Avello said, “I would take the ‘dog in the game. I like the way Clemson played at the end of the season. They certainly had their tough spots, but they ended up strong... It seems like their offense is where they want it right now, and it’s Ohio State’s job to slow it down. I think Clemson can win this football game.”

Here are a few bowl games beyond the semifinals that have our attention.

LSU (-3) vs. Louisville, Citrus Bowl, Saturday, Dec. 31

Louisville, not long ago regarded as one of the best teams in the country, has lost respect among the betting market, thanks to consecutive loses (at Houston, vs. Kentucky) to close out the regular season. The Cardinals are between 3- and 3.5-point dogs against LSU in Orlando.

When Louisville was putting up 50, 60, 70 points a game at the beginning of the season, public bettors couldn’t get to the window fast enough to bet them. But the Cards have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games. That sort of performance will change people’s minds about a team.

“Louisville being a public team has certainly changed,” Simbal said.

LSU opened -2.5 at CG and was bet to as high as -3.5 by public gamblers reacting to news that running back Leonard Fournette is likely to play.

“I don’t know how much Louisville play we’re going to get in this game,” Avello added. “I think we’re going to need Louisville when the game goes off.”

Avello envisions a motivated LSU side under Ed Orgeron, who was recently hired as head coach of the Tigers after serving on an interim basis since Les Miles was fired in late September.

“I think they come into the game focused and ready to move on for next year. I think they have something to play for here,” Avello said. “I think (playing against Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson) gives them little more motivation to try and stop him. “

Western Michigan vs. Wisconsin (-7.5), Outback Bowl, Tampa, Monday, Jan. 2

Western Michigan will get its shot against a legit Power 5 program by virtue of its 13-0 record, built mainly through the Broncos’ MAC schedule. P.J. Fleck’s men do have road wins over two Big Ten teams on their resume, albeit Northwestern in the first week of the season and lowly Illinois.

That’s not enough to interest public bettors in taking the points against Wisconsin.

As about 2:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday Dec. 14, CG had written six bets on Western Michigan for a total of $125, compared to 40 bets on Wisconsin worth $4,000, mostly from fans, according to Simbal.

CG opened Wisconsin -6.5 and moved to -7.5, but action this small won’t prompt Simbal’s group to adjust to a number that would be enticing to wiseguys.

“You can’t inflate the line too much, because the sharp guys really like to attack these bowl games early on when a line is off,” Simbal said.

Avello doesn’t seem particularly impressed with Western Michigan, despite its perfect record, and he also does not see a problem with motivation for the Badgers.

“It’s not like they destroyed all those teams,” Avello said of the Broncos. “Those teams have all hung around, staying within a couple of touchdowns. They’re up against a team that could have very well been in the national championship game. We’re going to find out how good they really are…“The team does score a lot (43.5 points per game, 8th in the nation). ... But Wisconsin’s defense has shut down a lot of teams during the year.”

He added of Wisconsin’s motivation after being eliminated from national title contention, “When there’s so much time between games, it changes things a little bit for teams – maybe they lose their momentum, maybe they don’t care as much – we don’t know that. But in this case, I would bet Wisconsin comes to play and win the game.”

USC (-7) vs. Penn State, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Monday, Jan. 2

USC, winners of eight straight (7-1 ATS) after a 1-3 start to the season, opened -6.5 for its Rose Bowl date vs. Penn State, and the line has hovered between that number and -7 around Las Vegas the past week and a half.

Despite nearly missing a playoff bid, No. 5 Penn State, as Avello sees it, faces a daunting task in Pasadena.

“Penn State had a miraculous win against Wisconsin (in the Big Ten championship game), being down that many early in the game, and I respect what that team has done this year, but they’re up against a lot here,” Avello said... “If there were two or three games left in the season, (USC) might end up in that final four.”

He added, “USC is going to be bet this game. I guess I’ll get some Penn State money if I get to the right number.”

At least one sharp player liked Penn State plus the touchdown, as Avello’s team moved the Rose Bowl line from 7 back to 6.5 after we spoke Tuesday.

Auburn vs. Oklahoma (-3.5), Sugar Bowl, New Orleans, Monday, Jan. 2

Oklahoma opened -5.5 at the Wynn, but the line has swung 2 points in Auburn’s direction, a move driven largely by sentiment that the SEC is superior to the Big 12, Avello believes.

“Not a great season for them, but there are quality athletes on the team and they’re a very well-coached team,” Avello said of Auburn. “They didn’t finish the season well, but they did cover the point spread against Alabama. They weren’t scoring a lot the last couple of games, but still, Gus Malzahn does a great job with this team.”

He added of the Sugar Bowl favorite, “Oklahoma’s a tough team to bet, because Oklahoma can come with all of it or (not). They can score, but they can also give up a lot.”

Opinions on conferences still taking shape

Despite certain games, like the Sugar Bowl discussed above, being bet based on conferences, more meaningful opinions on leagues are developed as the bowl season plays out. In other words, it’s too early to find patterns on which conferences are being backed or faded in the postseason.

“You’re not going to find it now, you’re going to find it after the bowl season starts,” Avello said, “and this is what happens: if the Pac 12 goes 3-0 the first three games, then they’ll start betting the Pac 12 teams, figuring they must be a stronger conference; and if they see conferences starting to lose, they’ll bet against them.”

Simbal offered this as an example of how opinions continue to be shaped: “If San Diego State is able to win (the Las Vegas Bowl this Saturday) and their defense handles Houston, then you have to look at the teams Houston beat down the stretch of the season. Houston gave a licking to Louisville, so if San Diego State is beating up Houston pretty good, then how good can Louisville be?”

More early action at CG Technology

Simbal pointed out a few under-the-radar bowl games that have attracted early action from respected bettors at his shop.

CG took two limit bets ($5,000) on N.C. State, one laying 3.5, one laying 4, against Vanderbilt in the Dec. 26 Independence Bowl. After moving the number to 4.5, though, the book is back to 4.

Houston opened -2.5 and was bet up to -3.5, although CG also took a limit bet on the San Diego State money line (+145), opening up a nice 3-point middle for the book.

Wyoming is an 8.5-point dog against BYU in the Dec. 21 Poinsettia Bowl, but Simbal said CG booked a five-figure money-line bet on the Cowboys +270.

Totals

‘Under’ is being bet in the Peach Bowl between Washington and Alabama, as the total opened 55 at CG Technology and is down to 54. But, Simbal cautions, “It’s hard to lay 16 and bet the under.”

The total for this Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl featuring Texas-San Antonio vs. New Mexico has been relatively heavily bet, according to Simbal, with gamblers playing the ‘under’ from an opening number of 63.5 down to 62.5.

The Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium between Pitt and Northwestern on Dec. 28 is seeing ‘over’ money, pushing the number from 66 to 66.5.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Top Action
December 14, 2016

New Mexico Bowl (ESPN, 2:00 p.m. ET)
Texas-San Antonio vs. New Mexico

Sportsbook.ag Odds: New Mexico (-7); Total set at 63

The college football Bowl season officially gets going on Saturday and the first game on the card is a rare true home game for a Bowl team.

The New Mexico Lobos, who finished with an 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS record, get to play on their own field as they host the UTSA Road Runners. This will be the first ever Bowl game for the Road Runners who have only been in FBS for five seasons and you know that program will be hyped up to be on the Bowl stage.

Things won't be easy for UTSA here as they've got to go on the road against a very partisan crowd which isn't always the case this time of year. The Road Runners finished the campaign with just a 6-6 SU and ATS record, and four of those defeats did come away from home.

Getting a touchdown here against a Lobos team that's on their own field is something that not too many casual bettors will want to back, but this UTSA team does have a history with New Mexico and could surprise many on Saturday.

The strength of UTSA's attack is that it's a balanced approach that highly values time of possession. HC Frank Wilson is in his first year with the program, but he was previously at LSU as a running back coach and is known as one of the best recruiters in the country. Having just taken over for Larry Coker in January, Wilson's recruiting skills haven't really bore fruits as of yet, but Coker left the program with significant stock and Wilson has made the most of it this year.

The Road Runners will likely aim to dominate the time of possession in this game to keep New Mexico's offense off the field and subsequently keep the partisan home crowd out of the game. IF UTSA is successful in that, then this game has a great chance to go down to the wire.

While Bowl games at home can appear to be a huge advantage on the surface, in practice that's not always the case. Players miss out on a lot of unique Bowl experiences in that regard with all the pre-game events taking on a different feel. There is no sightseeing for New Mexico players to do in a different locale and while the business approach of winning a game does fit better here, these college kids like to get out and go new places during this time of year and when they don't – like New Mexico here – it's tough to really be highly energized for the Bowl game.

Im not saying that will be the case for a Lobos squad, but this team got to their first Bowl game in decades a year ago and wouldn't you know it it was this same New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos lost that game 45-37 vs Arizona and I would not be surprised to see a similar result this season.

On the other hand, there is no question that New Mexico's returning players would have learned from last year's disappointment, but asking them to win by a touchdown is too much here. There defense has been torched in recent weeks to the tune of 84 points allowed over their final two games and when that's the case, the possibility for a back-door cover by UTSA increases.

UTSA has a tremendous run defense that should negate much of the advantage New Mexico has enjoyed on the ground this year (361 yards/game), and with UTSA on a 5-1 ATS run against winning teams, taking the points is the way to go here.

Best Bet: Take Texas-San Antonio +7

Las Vegas Bowl (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Houston Cougars vs. San Diego State Aztecs

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Houston (-3.5); Total set at 55

Arguably the best game on the first day of Bowl games, this Houston/San Diego State game should have a bit of everything. These are two very good programs that finished the year with just three losses each, and San Diego State is coming off a Mountain West Championship.

It's Houston that's generating all the headlines leading up to this game as HC Tom Herman has moved on to bigger things by taking the job at Texas, and leaving DC Todd Orlando to coach this contest.

Backing teams that lose their head coaches at this time of year is always a slippery slope and while Houston does have some very impressive victories this season (Oklahoma, Louisville), you can't help but wonder if the players on this team are prepared to play their best this week.

Interim HC's are always put in a tough spot during Bowl season and it's a situation that the Houston Cougars program knows all too well. This will be the third time since 2007 that the Cougars put an interim HC on the sidelines for one game and the fourth time in that span that they've gone into their Bowl game with a different HC from the regular season.

Big names like Art Briles, Kevin Sumlin, and now Tom Herman have all used the Houston program as a launching point for their careers, and should Major Applewhite experience similar success with the program starting next year and beyond, it would not be surprising at all to see him move to a bigger school. So on one hand, this program is used to dealing with situations like this, but that also doesn’t make it any easier.

For senior QB Greg Ward Jr, this will be the second time in three seasons that he's had to deal with that change and typically it's got to be considered a warning sign for bettors.

Another knock against those looking to back Houston here is the fact that the Cougars have been burning money since the start of October. Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games with the lone win coming in their tremendous 36-10 upset as 17-point underdogs vs. Louisville.

This team has been the definition of one that plays up or down to the level of their competition and given all the changes within the program recently, I don't see them “getting up” for this game against the Aztecs as they did vs the likes of Louisville and Oklahoma.

The fact that Houston promoted their DC to the interim HC position doesn't do them any favors either when they've got to deal with arguably the best RB in the nation in Donnel Pumphrey. Pumphrey has 2018 rushing yards on the season, an average of 6.1 per carry, and needs 108 yards on the ground in this game to be College Football's leading rusher of all time.

That's quite an accomplishment for a RB that doesn't get mainstream attention at San Diego State, but that school is known for producing quality RB's (Marshall Faulk). There's no question that SD State will lean heavily on Pumphrey and their talented defense to limit Houston's offensive possessions in this game and they should have quite a bit of success in doing so.

Houston's defense doesn't have the full attention of their DC right now with him being the HC and that could end up being a disaster for the Cougars here.

So while the majority of bettors, according to Vegas Insider, have been betting on the Cougars for this game (70%+), I'm not shy at all about being in the minority here. San Diego State is more of an unknown program to the majority of bettors and people often don't want to back a team they know little about.

But after Pumphrey sets the all-time rushing record and leads his Aztecs to an outright win and improves upon their 4-1 ATS mark when coming off a win, the entire nation will garner more respect for this Aztecs program.

Best Bet: Take San Diego State +3.5 (and don't be scared about a ML bet either).

[StarDust Bum]

Florida State safety James will not play in Orange Bowl
December 15, 2016

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) Florida State safety Derwin James will not play in the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30 against No. 6 Michigan.

James suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee during the second half of the 10th-ranked Seminoles Sept. 10 win over Charleston Southern. James had been doing some on-field running last month but coach Jimbo Fisher ruled him out for the bowl game on Thursday.

James came into the season considered one of the top sophomores in the country after finishing second on the team in tackles in 2015. He had an interception in the Sept. 5 win over Mississippi.

Fisher also said that quarterback Malik Henry is transferring. The freshman did not play in any games and was suspended for a month earlier in the season due to a violation of team rules.

[StarDust Bum]

Minnesota players threaten boycott of Holiday Bowl
December 15, 2016

Minnesota football players are threatening to boycott the Gophers' appearance in the Holiday Bowl in protest of the school's decision to suspend 10 players following an investigation into an alleged sexual assault in September, the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported Thursday.

According to the report the players were expected to announce Thursday evening that they will boycott all football practices and team activities, and the Dec. 27 bowl game if necessary.

The school announced Tuesday that Ray Buford, Carlton Djam, Seth Green, KiAnte Hardin, Dior Johnson, Tamarion Johnson, Kobe McCrary, Antonio Shenault, Mark Williams and Antoine Winfield Jr. were suspended.

A players-only meeting was held Thursday morning, according to the Star Tribune. The players then informed coach Tracy Claeys of the meeting and that they would halt all practices and football-related activities. They also said they would boycott the bowl game against Washington State if the suspended players were not reinstated.

The suspensions came several weeks after a criminal investigation resulted in no arrests or charges.

Some of the players were accused by a female student of a sexual assault the night before the Gophers' first game on Sept. 2. How the other suspended players were involved is not immediately clear.

The woman's claims were documented through police reports and led to an investigation.

Claeys said Wednesday he could not comment about the suspensions.

"I'm not going to answer any more questions about that," he said Wednesday. "This is about the game, the University of Minnesota vs. Washington State. We have enough guys to play. Last time I checked, it only takes 11 on each side of the ball and a few for special teams. So we've got enough left to do that and we'll get them prepared to go and our kids will play hard."

The Gophers have an 8-4 record this season.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl game writeups

Dec 17

New Mexico Bowl: Tex-San Antonio @ New Mexico

New Mexico stays at home for this bowl, its 4th bowl in last 11 years, all here in Albuquerque. Lobos won six of last seven games to finish 8-4; they’re 5-1 at home, 1-2 as a home favorite- their only home loss was 49-21 to Boise State. New Mexico likes to run ball; they ran for 300+ yards in seven games this year, had an astounding 568 rushing yards in 56-35 win in its finale vs Wyoming. UTSA’s QB is Dalton Sturm, named after Patrick Swayze’s character in Road House; Roadrunners are in first-ever bowl- they went 5-3 in last eight games, covered four of last five- none of their last eight opponents ran for more than 180 yards. New Mexico is 3-2 vs spread in games with single digit spread; UTSA is 2-2. C-USA non-conference road underdogs are 9-11 vs spread. Mountain West home favorites are 9-14. Mountain West team covered this bowl the last four years, with underdogs 3-1 vs spread in those games.

Las Vegas Bowl: Houston-San Diego State

Houston started season with upset of Oklahoma, then upset Louisville later in season, but they also lost to Navy-SMU-Memphis and now they’re in a lesser bowl than they thought and their coach is off to Texas, taking lot of assistants with him. Cougars scored 35-38 points to post upset wins in bowls the last two years; senior QB Ward (also leading rusher) needs a big game here. Houston is 9-0 when they allow less than 38 points, 0-3 when they give up 38+; Cougars are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games as a favorite. San Diego State lost its last two games, allowing 97 points; they’re 2-3 in bowls the last five years- they play on this field every other year- Aztecs beat UNLV here 52-14 LY. RB Pumphrey is one of nation’s best; Aztecs are 9-0 when they run for 200+ yards, 0-3 vs D-I teams when they do not. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-8 vs spread this season; Mountain West underdogs are 5-12.

Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State-Toledo

Toledo won three of its last four bowls, beating Temple LY; Rockets scored 32+ points in four of last five (3-2) bowl games. Toledo is 2-1-1 vs spread in games with a single digit spread; they allowed 249+ rushing yards in all three of their losses- they’re 9-0 when allowing less than 249 YR. Appalachian State won 31-29 over Ohio in this game LY, ASU’s first-ever bowl. Mountaineers won eight of last nine games this year after a 1-2 start, with loss to Troy; they’re 2-2 vs spread in games with a single-digit pointspread. ASU lost its season opener in OT at Tennessee. Junior QB Lamb is a 3-year starter for App State. Sun Belt teams are 8-7 in last 15 games with MAC opponents; Toledo opened this year with a 31-10 win over Arkansas State. App State won 45-38 at Akron in September. This is third Camellia Bowl; MAC/Sun Belt split first two, with totals of 61-60.

Cure Bowl, Orlando: Central Florida-Arkansas State

Central Florida was 0-12 LY after being 31-9 the three years before that, now they’re favored in a bowl game. Knights won three of their last four bowls, are playing in hometown here. UCF is 6-6 this year, 4-2 vs number in games with single-digit spread, 4-1 as a favorite- they lost last two games, allowing 83 points. Arkansas State is playing in its sixth straight bowl (under four different HC’s); they’re 0-2 in bowls under Anderson, losing 63-44/47-28. ASU is 7-5 this season after an 0-4 start that included a loss to a I-AA team. Red Wolves are 2-2 as underdogs this season. Under is 7-1-1 in last nine ASU games, 6-1 in UCF’s last eight games. Last two years, AAC teams are 4-2 vs spread when playing Sun Belt teams. AAC non-conference favorites are 10-9 vs spread this year. Sun Belt underdogs are 13-13. This is only second Cure Bowl, so no history to lean on here.

New Orleans Bowl: Southern Mississippi/UL-Lafayette

UL-Lafayette is playing in this bowl for 5th time in last six years; they won previous four, and were underdog three times- those are ULL’s only bowl appearances. Lot of people will make the trip east from Lafayette. ULL is 4-2 as an underdog this year, 7-2 vs number in games with a single-digit spread. ULL QB Jennings started 14 games for LSU before transferring. Southern Miss lost three of last four games, covered one of last eight; they had to beat La Tech as a 14-point dog to get bowl eligible. USM lost as a 10-point favorite to Troy of Sun Belt. Golden Eagles are 1-6 as a favorite this year, 1-2 in games with a single digit spread- they’re 1-3 in last four bowl games, they split two trips to this bowl in 2008-09. Underdogs won this bowl SU three of last five years; Sun Belt teams won four of the five.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's Early Bowl Tips
December 16, 2016

**Texas-San Antonio at New Mexico**

-- This is the Gildan New Mexico Bowl that’ll be played at New Mexico’s home venue, University Stadium in Albuquerque. This is the Lobos’ second straight appearance in this postseason game after losing a 45-37 decision to Arizona last season as nine-point underdogs.

-- As of Thursday night, most betting shops had New Mexico (8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) installed as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The number has moved up from seven earlier in the week, while the total has dipped down from 62.5 points. The Roadrunners were +250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $250).

-- UNM was a single-digit favorite only once this year, beating Utah St. 24-21 as a 1.5-point road ‘chalk’ on Nov. 12. The Lobos closed out the regular season by smashing Wyoming 56-35 as three-point home underdogs. They led 35-7 at intermission and 42-7 midway through the third quarter. Lamar Jordan led the way by rushing for 176 yards and one TD on just 12 carries. The junior quarterback also completed 4-of-5 passes for 122 yards and one TD without an interception. RB Teriyon Gipson ran for a team-best 217 yards and two TDs on 13 attempts. RB Richard McQuarley also eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark with 121 yards and three TDs on 15 totes.

-- Bob Davie’s team leads the nation in rushing offense, averaging 360.9 yards per game. Gipson has rushed for 1,209 yards and 12 TDs while averaging an eye-opening 9.2 yards per carry. Tyrone Owens has run for 1,084 yards and seven scores with an 8.1 YPC average, while Jordan has 658 rushing yards and three TDs. McQuarley has rushed for 588 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 4.7 YPC.

-- New Mexico doesn’t throw it much. Jordan has connected on 37-of-71 passes (52.1%) for 604 yards with a 6/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Austin Apodaca has completed 53-of-96 throws for 654 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Q’ Drennan has 11 receptions for 284 yards and three TDs.

-- Owens missed the regular-season finale with a foot injury and is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. UTSA. Starting senior nose tackle William Udeh also missed the win over Wyoming and is ‘questionable.’ Udeh has recorded 12 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss and one sack.

-- UTSA (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) beat Charlotte by a 33-14 count in its regular-season finale to secure its first bowl-game appearance in program history. Dalton Sturm threw for 286 yards and two TDs without an interception, while Kerry Thomas had five receptions for 145 yards and one TD.

-- Sturm, the junior signal caller, has completed 58.2 percent of his throws for 2,052 yards with an 18/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sturm has also rushed for 263 yards and four touchdowns. Josh Stewart has a team-best 36 receptions for 682 yards and five TDs, while Thomas has 31 catches for 510 yards and eight TDs.

-- UTSA’s ground game is led by the 1-2 combination of Jarveon Williams and Jalen Rhodes. Williams has run for 775 yards and eight TDs while averaging 4.1 YPC. Rhodes has rushed for 756 yards and nine TD with a 5.3 YPC average.

-- Frank Wilson led UTSA to a second-place finish in Conference USA’s West Division with a 5-3 record in league play. The Roadrunners went 3-4 against teams that made the postseason. They compiled a 4-3 spread record with two outright victories as underdogs. Wilson’s squad faced one team from out of the Mountain West Conference in Week 2, losing 23-14 at Colorado St. as an 8.5-point ‘dog. UTSA squared off with a pair of Power Five foes, losing 32-28 to Arizona St. as a 21.5-point puppy and 23-10 at Texas A&M when catching 27 points. The Sun Devils actually trailed the Roadrunners 28-12 midway through the third quarter and 28-15 going into the fourth.

-- UTSA’s defense is led by redshirt freshman LB Josiah Tauaefa, who was the program’s first player to earn first-team All C-USA honors after recording a program-record 104 tackles, including 7.5 for loss. Tauaefa is ranked third among FBS freshmen in tackles.

-- The ‘over’ is 10-2 overall for New Mexico, 6-0 in its home games. The Lobos have seen their games average combined scores of 70.2 PPG.

-- Totals have been an overall wash for the Roadrunners (6-6), but the ‘under’ has cashed in back-to-back games. Their games have averaged combined scores of 58.2 PPG.

-- Kickoff on Saturday is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Houston vs. San Diego State**

-- The Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium in Sin City features a matchup of the AAC vs. the Mountain West. As of Thursday night, most spots had Houston (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) installed as a four-point favorite with a total of 51.5. The Aztecs were available on the money line for a +160 payout (paid $160 on $100 wagers).

-- Houston went 22-4 in 26 games under Tom Herman, who left UH to take the Texas job shortly after the Cougars dropped a 48-44 heartbreaker at Memphis in their regular-season finale at the Liberty Bowl. Offensive coordinator Major Applewhite has been tabbed as UH’s new head coach.

-- Houston probably has the best true freshman in all of America in DT Ed Oliver, who has lived up to his 5-star billing and then some. Oliver has produced 61 tackles, 19 TFL’s, five sacks, three forced fumbles, nine passes broken up and seven QB hurries. Senior LB Steven Taylor has registered a team-best 72 tackles, 11 TFL’s, 8.5 sacks, four QB hurries, two PBU, a pair of forced fumbles and one pick-six.

-- Houston opened the season with a 33-23 win over Oklahoma as a 13-point underdog at NRG Stadium in H-Town. Senior QB Greg Ward Jr. was the catalyst, throwing for 321 yards and two TDs without an interception. Duke Catalon rushed for 88 yards on 22 totes, while Steven Dunbar hauled in seven receptions for 125 yards. Catalon also had four catches for 29 yards and one TD.

-- Houston has been a single-digit favorite three times this year, posting a 1-2 spread record.

-- One of those non-covers from the single-digit ‘chalk’ role was an outright defeat at Memphis. The Tigers won in come-from-behind fashion as six-point home underdogs thanks to Riley Ferguson’s 10-yard scoring strike to Anthony Miller with 19 seconds remaining. UH held a 624-555 advantage in total offense, but the Cougars were minus two in the turnover department. Ward completed 47-of-67 passes for 487 yards and four TDs with one interception. He also ran for a team-high 65 yards on 16 attempts. Catalon rushed 13 times for 60 yards and one TD while also catching seven balls for 41 yards. Linell Bonner had 17 receptions for 235 yards and one TD, while Chance Allen had eight catches for 73 yards and two TDs.

-- For the season, Ward has completed 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,328 yards with a 22/9 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for a team-high 518 yards and nine TDs, while Catalon has 510 rushing yards and four TDs. Catalon, a transfer from Texas, missed four games with injuries and averages only 3.9 YPC.

-- Bonner has a team-high 93 receptions for 1,076 yards and three TDs. Allen has 56 grabs for 815 yards and six TDs, while Dunbar has 51 catches for 669 yards and five scores.

-- Houston is ranked third in the nation in rush defense and 14th in total defense.

-- Houston has won back-to-back bowl games, beating Pitt 35-34 in 2014 as a 3.5-point ‘dog at the Armed Forces Bowl. Then last year at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta, the Cougars thumped FSU by a 38-24 count as seven-point ‘dogs.

-- Houston took its other two defeats at Navy (46-40) and at SMU (38-16). The Cougars posted quality wins over Tulsa (38-31), UCF (31-24) and Louisville. They hosted U of L on a Thursday night as 17-point home underdogs. Bobby Petrino’s team was still in the mix for a CFP berth, but UH destroyed the Cardinals 36-10 and cashed money-line tickets for their backers to the tune of a monster return in the +550 range.

-- San Diego State (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) played a soft schedule, which is evidenced by its first underdog spot of the season here. Nevertheless, the Aztecs won the Mountain West Conference Championship Game by capturing a 27-24 win at Wyoming as seven-point road ‘chalk.’ Rashaad Penny rushed for 117 yards and two TDs on 16 carries, while Donnel Pumphrey ran for 110 yards and one TD on 25 attempts.

-- San Diego State lost two of its last three games, going 0-3 ATS. The Aztecs dropped a 34-33 decision at Wyoming two weeks before returning to Laramie to exact revenge. They closed the regular season by getting smashed 63-31 at Colorado St.

-- San Diego State is led by Pumphrey, the senior who has shredded all of Marshall Faulk’s school rushing records Pumphrey rushed for a career-best 2,018 yards and 16 TDs this year, averaging 6.1 YPC. He also had 26 catches for 205 yards. Penny has rushed for 995 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 7.9 YPC.

-- San Diego State QB Christian Chapman has completed 60.3 percent of his passes for 1,866 yards with a 19/6 TD-INT ratio. Chapman’s favorite target is Mikah Holder, who has 26 receptions for 569 yards and five TDs. Penny has 14 catches for 220 yards and three TDs.

-- San Diego State started the season 3-0, only to get thumped 42-24 at South Alabama as an 18.5-point road favorite in Week 5. The Aztecs responded with six straight wins while going 5-1 ATS, but then they lost their last two regular-season contests.

-- San Diego State is 12th in the nation in total defense, 11th in defending the run and 19th in scoring (21.0 PPG). This unit has lost three starters to season-ending injuries since late October, including LB Na’im McGee, LB Randy Ricks and CB Billy Vaughn.

-- Rocky Long has led San Diego State to six straight postseason appearances since taking over. The Aztecs are 2-3 both SU and ATS in those bowl. They drilled Cincinnati 42-7 as 2.5-point favorites at last year’s Hawaii Bowl.

-- The ‘over’ is 8-5 overall for the Aztecs, cashing in five of their last six outings.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-5 overall for the Cougars, going 4-1 in their last five games.

-- ABC will have the broadcast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.