NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thursday, December 8 - Monday, December 12)

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular Week 14 picks in Westgate Super Contest

6) Green Bay Packers +2.5 (408)

5) Minnesota Vikings -3 (420)

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (440)

3) Washington Redskins -1 (481)

2) Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (558)

1) Baltimore Ravens +7 (577)

[Udog]

NFL Sunday action report: Steelers most popular bet of Week 14

“A lot of people are taking notice that the Steelers are playing their best football of season, having won and covered three straight."

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -4.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5.

The logjam of mediocrity atop the AFC South will clear up a little bit with this matchup. Indianapolis (6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) has won three of its last four to stay in contention for the division title. Last week, the Colts blasted the New York Jets 41-10 as a 1-point road underdog in the Monday nighter.

Houston has seen its division lead slip away due to a three-game SU and ATS purge. The Texans (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) went to Green Bay last week as a 6.5-point road pup and exited with a 21-13 loss.

“The Colts opened the game as a 4.5-point favorite. Remember, that was before the domination of the Jets,” Simbal said, noting the line was at 6 by Thursday morning and 6.5 later that day. “People really backing Andrew Luck, who looks to be healthy.”

Indeed, Luck returned from a concussion to go a very solid 22 of 28 for 278 yards and four TDs against New York.

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins – Open: -2; Move: -1.5; Move: +1; Move: +2

Miami’s betting stock apparently took a hit after its six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) came crashing down in Week 13. The Dolphins (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) were on the wrong end of a 38-6 beatdown at Baltimore as a 3.5-point pup.

Arizona (5-6-1 SU, 4-8 ATS) is very close to the tipping point of having nothing left to play for this season. The Cardinals apparently realized that last week, beating a good Washington team 31-23 laying 2.5 points at home.

“Tuesday morning, we got sharp play on Arizona +2.5, so we moved the Cards to +1.5,” Jerome said. “Thursday afternoon, we got sharp play on ‘Zona +1.5, so we moved the Cardinals to -1. The heavy majority of betting cash agrees with the sharps, so on Thursday night, we moved Arizona to the current number of -2.

“One reason I can see why the line has moved so much is that the Dolphins are now going to be without one of their most important people on offense, with center Mike Pouncey out indefinitely with a hip injury.”

At CG’s books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, M and the Venetian, the Dolphins opened -2.5 and were down to -1 by Thursday morning. The line flipped to Arizona -1 by Thursday afternoon and -2 that night.

“People really backing Arizona after their good performance against Washington,” Simbal said.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions – Open: -9; Move: -8; Move: -7.5

Detroit is two games clear of the rest of the NFC North, a big surprise considering that this is normally Green Bay’s territory and that Minnesota started the year 5-0. The Lions (8-4 SU and ATS) rolled to a 28-13 upset of New Orleans as a 6.5-point road underdog in Week 13, their fourth straight win and seventh in their last eight games (7-1 ATS).

Meanwhile, Chicago is the division doormat at 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS, but is coming off a 26-6 home rout of even more lowly San Francisco in a pick ‘em game.

“Obviously the Lions are playing hot as can be, Bears looked good last week, albeit against the 49ers in terrible weather,” Simbal said. “There has been some early money on the Bears. Maybe that 9 was just a shade too high.”

Simbal said sharp money was the initial driver of the line drop in this division clash.

“Anytime a big favorite goes from 9 to 8 early on, that’s gonna be sharp money,” he said. “Because no fan is really gonna take the Bears in this situation.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills – Open: +1; Move: +2; Move: +3

Pittsburgh is looking to keep pace with Baltimore in the race for the AFC North crown. The Steelers (7-5 SU and ATS) have won and cashed three in a row, including last week’s 24-14 victory over the New York Giants giving 6.5 points at home.

Buffalo (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) had a 24-9 third-quarter lead at Oakland last week, then gave it all away and more in a 38-24 loss getting 3 points.

“Pittsburgh -1 was the first sharp bet we got of the week, so we moved the Steelers to -2,” Jerome said. “Thursday afternoon, we moved Pittsburgh to -3 (even money). I could see us playing with the juice a bit and maybe using 3 flat or 3 -115 on the Steelers, but we definitely won’t move off the number 3.

“A lot of people are taking notice that the Steelers are playing their best football of season, having won and covered three straight. A large majority of cash is backing Pittsburgh on the spread, making the Steelers the most popular NFL bet for week 14.”

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Pick ‘em; Move: +1; Move: +2.5

Washington is struggling to keep itself in the playoff hunt, having dropped its last two games. The Redskins (6-5-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) lost at Arizona last week 31-23 catching 6.5 points.

Philadelphia (5-7 SU and ATS) has lost three in row and five of its last six SU and ATS, including a 32-14 setback at Cincinnati last week getting 2 points.

“On Tuesday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on Washington pick ‘em, so we moved the ‘Skins to -1,” Jerome said. “Then on Friday morning, we got another sharp bet on Washington -1, so we moved the Redskins to the current number of -2.5. I could see us moving to Washington -3 (even) on Sunday, if we keep getting 75 to 80 percent of the cash on Washington.

“For as nice as the Steelers are playing now, the other NFL team from Pennsylvania is trending the wrong way. Carson Wentz is looking like the player that was supposed to back up Sam Bradford, before Bradford was shipped off to Minnesota.”

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 14 of the Westgate SuperContest:

6) Green Bay Packers +2.5 (408)- W

5) Minnesota Vikings -3 (420)- W

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (440)- W

3) Washington Redskins -1 (481)- W

2) Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 (558)- W

1) Baltimore Ravens +7 (577)
Strong week for popular opinion

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday…..

Titans 13, Broncos 10— Tennessee has to be excited; they’re 7-6, tied for first in AFC South and they have the Rams’ #1 draft pick next year, so they’ll clean up next April and get even better. This was an ugly game; Titans scored 10 points on first two possessions, then held on for the win despite gaining only 178 yards the rest of the game. Mariota was 6-20/88 passing, but his team won. Five of last six Denver games stayed under the total.

Panthers 28, Chargers 16— San Diego turned ball over five times (-4). I have a question: Why can’t the Chargers just stay in San Diego and play in Qualcomm? Why is it better for them to move to LA and be a second rate tenant in a new ballpark? Who will go to their games there? At least in San Diego they have a whole city behind them, buying their gear, Maybe I’m an idiot, but seems to me every NFL team doesn’t need a brand-new stadium.

Texans 22, Colts 17— Houston is tied for first with Titans in AFC South; they ran ball for 185 yards, had 3 takeaways (+2), kicked five FGs- usually when a team scores one TD and kicks five FGs, they lose. Colts are 1-4-1 vs spread this year in game following a win; some teams cannot stand prosperity. This is only second time Texans have won in Indy (2-13). Under is 5-2 in last seven Houston games, 4-0 in Colts’ last four home games.

Bengals 23, Browns 10— I’m still amazed that an NFL franchise is worth roughly $1B, give or take, and the Browns are being run by Jonah Hill’s character from Moneyball. Seriously, why would you have a guy who spent most of the last 15 years as a baseball executive run your NFL team? It makes zero bleeping sense. Cleveland is 1-5-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing home games by 5-20-3-25-15-14-13 points

Steelers 27, Bills 20— Pittsburgh ran ball for 240 yards in the snow, amidst rumors that Rex Ryan is going to get fired. If Ryan and Jeff Fisher both get fired, then maybe their teams can hire coaches who actually care about offense and the league will put out a better product. Pittsburgh has now won/covered its last four games.

Non-football observation: if you’re going to be outside in a snowstorm for 3.5 hours, put on a goddamn coat. Rex Ryan wore same clothes for this game he wore in the LA Coliseum when the Bills played there. Even his brother wore a parka.

Dolphins 26, Cardinals 23— Game was played in a monsoon; Arizona’s kicker had an awful day, but did make a 56-yard FG. Miami kicked FG on last play to win, but they lost QB Tannehill to an ACL injury, so looks like Matt Moore gets to run the ball club the rest of the way- their #3 QB is former Western Kentucky QB Doughty. Arizona needs to draft a QB next spring; Carson Palmer is getting up there in years.

NFC West went 0-4 Sunday, turning ball over 15 times and 49ers didn’t have any turnovers.

Lions 20, Bears 17— Detroit is now 9-4 despite trailing in 4th quarter in 12 of 13 games. You know it might be the Lions’ year when Stafford throws a pick-6 to give Chicago a 17-13 lead with 7:07 left, but Detroit drives back down field to score game-winning TD with 3:17 left. Lions are 6-1 at home with four wins by exactly three points.

Pretty sure I’m going to be in Las Vegas when the NFL schedule comes out for 2017; first thing I’m going to do is bet the under on the Lions’ win total for next year.

Vikings 25, Jaguars 16— Minnesota ran ball 29 times for 85 yards (28 for 70 if you take out one Bradford scramble for 15 yards); they scored only 16 points on five red zone drives, but won anyway. Jaguars are 0-6 at home, have lost eight games in a row (2-6 vs spread). Vikings had been 2-6 this season when they didn’t score a TD on defense/special teams, now they’re 3-6.

Mike Zimmer coached this game with his right eye totally covered by tape; he is one tough human. He wore sunglasses when Minnesota had the ball, but took them off so he could read his defensive call charts when Jaguars had the ball. Lot of admiration for coach Zimmer.

Bucs 16, Saints 11— Sean Payton was yukking it up two weeks ago when he ran the score up on the sorry Rams, but since then his team scored a total of 24 points in losses to Detroit, Tampa Bay. New Orleans is 5-8 and going nowhere with an aging QB; they’re 0-6 when they score less than 25 points. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, 2-0-1 in Bucs’ last three.

Tampa Bay has won five games in a row and is looking smart for drafting Jameis Winston.

Redskins 27, Eagles 22— Washington won last five meetings with Philly, with average total in last six series games, 53.8; Eagles scored one offensive TD on 17 drives in two games with Redskins this year. Over is 11-2 in Washington games this season.

Jets 23, 49ers 17 OT— Niners snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, blowing a 17-3 halftime lead, losing their 12th straight game. Bryce Petty gets his first NFL win. Weird that SF was favored in its last two games, despite being an awful team.

I’m wondering if the networks stopped showing Colin Kaepernick kneeling during the National Anthem because he said he didn’t vote on Election Day. Just curious, thats all.

Packers 38, Seahawks 10— Seattle has now lost their last seven visits here; they’re 1-4-1 this season when scoring less than 26 points. Somehow, Green Bay’s defense has revived itself, allowing 36 points in last three games, after allowing 153 points in the four games before that- they had six takeaways in this game. Seattle is 2-4-1 on the road and they’ve fallen out of the #2 slot in the NFC, so they might be going on the road in the second week of the playoffs.

Falcons 42, Rams 14— Observations from this game and with apologies to the Falcons, I’ve got nothing to say about them— picked them last week and they lost.

— Rams should fire their head coach today, just to save everyone three more weeks of aggravation.

— Last three weeks: L21-49, L10-26, L14-42. Unacceptable results. Sometimes divorce is a good thing— just ask my ex-wife (its a joke!!!)

— The next coach should a) be an offensive guru or b) hire an offensive guru to be OC and yes, I’m thinking of Norv Turner, if we go the OC way.

— Find the best offensive line coach in America and pay him a boatload of cash to come to LA.

— They can keep Gregg Williams and John Fassel; defense/special teams ain’t the problem.

— Here are some W-L records of how QBs did their rookie year: Elway 4-6, PManning 3-13, EManning 1-6, Aikman 0-11, Stafford 2-8, Marino 7-2. Playing QB in the NFL is a hard job.

— I pay more money than I should for DirecTV, for one reason; to watch NFL games on Sundays, specifically the Rams. 13 consecutive non-winning seasons is getting my money’s worth.

Giants 10, Cowboys 7— Dak Prescott grew up in Louisiana; wonder if he ever played in a frigid night game before? Dallas is 11-2 with two losses to the Giants by total of four points. If playoffs started tomorrow, NFC Wild Card game would be Bucs @ Giants. AFC would be either Miami/Denver @ Oakland. Last five Giant games stayed under the total.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 12

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NFL Monday Night Football betting preview: Ravens at Patriots
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The Patriots own a deceptive 7-1 regular-season record in the series against the Ravens, who have been a major nemesis for New England and quarterback Tom Brady.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-6.5, 44.5)

The New England Patriots did not even have to take the field to seize control of their postseason destiny and they can solidify the front-running status when they host the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night. Oakland's loss to Kansas City on Thursday night put the Patriots one-half game up for the No. 1 seed in the AFC entering the final quarter of the season.

New England has won three in a row and can wrap up the AFC East title for an eight consecutive season -- which would be an NFL record -- with a win over Baltimore and a loss by Miami. The Patriots own a deceptive 7-1 regular-season record in the series against the Ravens, who have been a major nemesis for New England and quarterback Tom Brady. Four of the last six meetings (playoffs included) have been decided by four points or fewer and Baltimore owns a pair of postseason victories over the Patriots in Foxborough, Mass. The stakes are equally high for the Ravens, who are tied with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North but currently hold the tiebreaker over the Steelers.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (-1.5) - Patriots (-6) + home field (-3) = Patriots -7.5

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 7.5-point home favorites and the public quickly jumped on Baltimore's historical success against Tom Brady and the Pats - puching the line down to -6.5 by Sunday. The total hit the board at 46 and came all of the way down to 44.5. View complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Gillette Stadium on Monday night is calling for foggy, damp conditions with temperatures in the mid-30's. There will also be a 9-10 mph wind blowing just to make the conditions even more unpleasant.

INJURIES:

Ravens - G M. Yanda (Questionable, shoulder), TE C. Gilmore (Questionable, thigh), RB L. Taliaferro (Questionable, thigh), RB J. Allen (Questionable, personal), CB T. Young (Questionable, shoulder), G A. Lewis (Early Jan, ankle), TE B. Watson (I-R, achilles), DT W. Henry (I-R, undisclosed), CB M. Canady (I-R, hamstring), S K. Lewis (I-R, thigh), CB S. Price (I-R, thigh), TE M. Williams (I-R, knee), WR C. Matthews (I-R, undisclosed), G D. Wesley (I-R, undisclosed), DT C. Davis (I-R, ankle), DE B. Kaufusi (I-R, ankle), T S. Nembot (I-R, undisclosed), CB K. Arrington (I-R, concussion), LB C. Luckett (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Rolle (I-R, achilles), WR K. Clay (I-R, foot).

Patriots - TE M. Bennett (Probable, ankle), QB T. Brady (Probable, knee), LB E. Roberts (Questionable, hamstring), DL W. Hamilton (Questionable, leg), WR M. Slater (Questionable, foot), DB J. Richards (Questionable, knee), DB E. Rowe (Questionable, hamstring), WR D. Amendola (Out, ankle), G T. Jackson (Questionable, knee), QB J. Brissett (Questionable, thumb), TE R. Gronkowski (I-R, back), T S. Vollmer (I-R, knee), LB J. Freeny (I-R, shoulder), TE G. Scruggs (knee).

ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-7-1 O/U): Baltimore improved to 4-1 in its last five games following its most impressive victory of the season, a 38-6 demolition of Miami last week that snapped the Dolphins' six-game winning streak. Muddling through a season of mediocrity to that point, quarterback Joe Flacco established season highs with 381 yards passing and four touchdowns while setting a franchise record with 36 completions. Tight end Dennis Pitta had nine catches for 90 yards and two touchdowns, part of a unit that features veteran Steve Smith, speedster Mike Wallace and promising Breshad Perriman at wide receiver. The Ravens have the league's top-ranked defense (296.1 yards per game) and rank No. 1 against the run (73.8 yards).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS, 4-8 O/U): New England has won three in a row, although the combined record of those opponents entering Week 13 is 8-28. Brady has 19 touchdown passes versus only one interception since returning from his four-game suspension, but he is without his No. 1 receiving target in tight end Rob Gronkowski and has 12 scoring passes versus 11 picks in 10 career games (playoffs included) versus Baltimore. Rookie Malcolm Mitchell continues to emerge as a bigger threat in the passing game with a season-high eight receptions in last week's 26-10 win over Los Angeles while LeGarrette Blount is 43 yards shy of his second 1,000-yard season. The Patriots' defense is tied with Baltimore with 17.3 points allowed -- second in the NFL.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
* Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Under is 4-0 in Ravens last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Road team is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 52 percent of the picking public is grabbing the road underdog Ravens and 58 percent are taking the Over.


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