Announcement

**Udog** · 12-05-2016, 07:26 PM

NFL opening line report: Chiefs open as faves over very public Raiders

"We weren’t at 4 very long, as all the early money and bets were on the Raiders. We immediately went to 3.5." - Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-4)

Kansas City is coming off one of the more implausible scoring plays of the season, and one that helped Andy Reid’s squad turn this week’s game into a battle for first place in the AFC West. The Chiefs (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) gave up a touchdown with under five minutes remaining at Atlanta to fall behind 28-27. But Eric Berry intercepted the pass on the Falcons’ 2-point conversion try and returned it 99 yards for a 2-point score, which gave Kansas City a 29-28 victory as a 5-point underdog.

Oakland (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) also kept rolling Sunday, besting Buffalo 38-24 as a 3-point home favorite. The Raiders have won six in a row (5-1 ATS) since their Oct. 16 home loss to the Chiefs, 26-10 as a 1-point pup. Should Oakland lose this week, the two teams would be tied, but K.C. would hold the tiebreaker by virtue of two head-to-head wins.

“Both teams are coming off nice wins, and both cashed for their backers, so we’re not exactly sure whom bettors are going to back in this game,” Childs said. “I have the Chiefs the better team, rating them 1 point higher than the Raiders. Throw in major home-field advantage and this being a short week for the Raiders to travel, and I give the Chiefs 3.5 for those intangibles.

“But the Raiders have been getting support from the public every week, so instead of opening Chiefs -4.5 (power rating plus intangibles), we decided to open Chiefs -4. We weren’t at 4 very long, as all the early money and bets were on the Raiders. We immediately went to 3.5, which is our current number.”

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers, no line

Green Bay has won its last two games as it scrambles to put its season back together, but will have to keep winning to have any hope of a return to the playoffs. On Sunday, the Packers (6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) held off Houston 21-13 laying 6.5 points at home.

Seattle, meanwhile, appears to be coasting to the NFC West crown. The Seahawks (8-3-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) crushed defending NFC champion Carolina 40-7 on Sunday as an 8-point home chalk.

“We didn’t open this game yet, with the Seahawks playing on Sunday night,” said Childs, noting that barring any major Seahawks injuries, Sportsbook.ag would probably open at or near pick ‘em today. Seattle, though, did have one key injury, with safety Earl Thomas suffering a lower left leg fracture.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3)

Dallas is the darling of the league, riding an 11-game winning streak (9-2 ATS) into New York in hopes of avenging its lone loss of the year. The Cowboys (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) edged Minnesota 17-15 in the Week 13 Thursday nighter, falling just short as a 3-point fave.

New York (8-4 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) had its six-game winning streak snapped Sunday at Pittsburgh, losing 24-14 as a 6.5-point pup. The Giants beat Dallas 20-19 in the season opener, cashing as a 1-point ‘dog.

“Great Sunday night game, but with the Giants losing to the Steelers, it pretty much cinches up the NFC East for the Cowboys,” Childs said. “That said, it makes this a must, must-win game for the Giants if they want to keep pace for a wild-card spot. We have the Cowboys rated significantly higher than the Giants, about 5 points in our rankings. The Giants simply haven’t beaten anybody of late; the only winning team they’ve beaten since their opening win over the Cowboys was a Ravens team playing very poorly at the time.

“Throw in the fact that this is a revenge game for the Cowboys, and we have the motivation edge very equal here. The Cowboys also come into this game having 10 days off. With that factored in, we had Cowboys -2, but knowing our bettors are going to back the Cowboys and that this is a Sunday night prime-time game, we added a full point and opened them -3.”

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8)

New England kept pace with Oakland for the AFC’s top record, breezing past Los Angeles 26-10 as a hefty 13-point home chalk Sunday. The Patriots improved to 10-2 SU and are tied with Dallas for the best ATS mark at 9-3.

Baltimore has won four of its last five SU and ATS to bounce back from a four-game SU and ATS slide. On Sunday, the Ravens (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) hammered red-hot Miami – which had won six straight – 38-6 giving 3.5 at home.

“The Patriots just keep winning and keep covering for their backers,” Childs said. “We have them power-rated roughly 4 points better than the Ravens, but throw in home field and the fact that we lose money on the Patriots every week, as bettors can’t get enough of them, no matter how high their spreads are.

“So in a game where they should be a 7-point favorite, we opened them -8, hoping to attract some Ravens money. For the first time all season, we’re seeing more action against the Patriots, and we’ve lowered our number to Pats -7.5.”

**Udog** · 12-05-2016, 07:26 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, December 8

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OAKLAND (10 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (9 - 3) - 12/8/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 31-57 ATS (-31.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-54 ATS (-29.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
OAKLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 11

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DENVER (8 - 4) at TENNESSEE (6 - 6) - 12/11/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (5 - 7) at CAROLINA (4 - 8) - 12/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-48 ATS (+27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 54-28 ATS (+23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 92-65 ATS (+20.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (6 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 6) - 12/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in dome games since 1992.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (4 - 7 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 12) - 12/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 69-96 ATS (-36.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (7 - 5) at BUFFALO (6 - 6) - 12/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (5 - 6 - 1) at MIAMI (7 - 5) - 12/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (3 - 9) at DETROIT (8 - 4) - 12/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 45-70 ATS (-32.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 12-33 ATS (-24.3 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 15-31 ATS (-19.1 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in dome games this season.
DETROIT is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
DETROIT is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
DETROIT is 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 58-82 ATS (-32.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 130-165 ATS (-51.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (6 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 10) - 12/11/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 7) at TAMPA BAY (7 - 5) - 12/11/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (6 - 5 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 7) - 12/11/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (3 - 8) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 11) - 12/11/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (8 - 3 - 1) at GREEN BAY (6 - 6) - 12/11/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 63-37 ATS (+22.3 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 67-41 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (7 - 5) at LA RAMS (4 - 8) - 12/11/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS is 175-220 ATS (-67.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-220 ATS (-67.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-113 ATS (-44.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-172 ATS (-63.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 137-174 ATS (-54.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-87 ATS (-38.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 64-93 ATS (-38.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (11 - 1) at NY GIANTS (8 - 4) - 12/11/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DALLAS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 12

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BALTIMORE (7 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 2) - 12/12/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 231-186 ATS (+26.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 231-186 ATS (+26.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 179-135 ATS (+30.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 104-76 ATS (+20.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 56-36 ATS (+16.4 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-05-2016, 07:27 PM

NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 8

8:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland

Sunday, December 11

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. DETROIT
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games at home
Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CAROLINA
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
San Diego is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. JACKSONVILLE
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Jacksonville's last 13 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games
Washington is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games ,
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games
Miami is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Houston
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
NY Jets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of San Francisco's last 21 games at home

4:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. GREEN BAY
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Seattle is 2-5-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Green Bay's last 12 games at home
Green Bay is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home

4:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
New Orleans is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games at home

8:30 PM
DALLAS vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Dallas is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the NY Giants last 8 games when playing Dallas

Monday, December 12

8:30 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing New England
Baltimore is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 10 games

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**Udog** · 12-06-2016, 01:25 PM

NFL Week 14 lines that make you go hmmm...

Were sportsbooks giving the Patriots too much credit with their opening line for the Pats home date with the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14?

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7.5, 43.5)

I’m very surprised at the early movement so far. I give kudos to the opening number of -9.5 but for whatever reason, early money has taken this down to a very unsafe zone for bookmakers. I made this 10.5 to 11 so I’m looking at this game with a very wary eye.

Detroit does have a few injuries but its handling of New Orleans capping this current run of three wins in a row and seven of the past eight games convinced me that this game deserves double-digit consideration. Defensively, Detroit has been humming allowing less than 20 points in five of the last six games and four in a row. Their offense is doing more than enough to handle a touchdown difference.

One factor that helped the cause was Chicago’s win against San Francisco. However, this being a revenge game, plus Chicago’s record of inept play this season, there’s no way this line will remain at the current 7.5 level, and there are already some eights popping up. Grab the home favorite as quick as you can and thank the early money for handing you an easy take.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (+2, 47.5)

We’re looking hard at the total in this game. From personal experience, as a resident of Buffalo for nine punishing winters in my youth, I would never use a total higher than 42 when a game is being played in Orchard Park in December. And it’s not the snow or rain that is the determining factor: it’s the wind. Take a look at late games in Buffalo the past few years and you’ll see they predominantly go Under.

That high-scoring game at Oakland this past weekend was in pristine playing conditions in the Bay Area. That surely has a small effect on the higher opener. But add to the fact that the Steelers are an Under monster, playing conditions will affect the style of play. Buffalo runs the ball, which will eat up a ton of time and if that doesn’t work, passes will be blown all over the field forcing shorter routes and less big-play opportunities.

Pittsburgh has gone Under in seven of its past eight games. The Steelers allowed nine and seven points in their past two road games and looked terrific versus the Giants Sunday. If you like the Under, don’t pass up the high number sitting at your sportsbook early in the week.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+4, 43.5)

Here’s a chance to take advantage of what I call a manufactured line. The Bengals were 11-point favorites their first time versus Cleveland in Cincinnati. So, what oddsmakers do is automatically take six points off (hence the opener -5) from the first game. The magic for us is that it was bet the wrong way. Another suspicious early move. I made this game Cincy -6.5.

The Bengals broke loose a bit with a quality win over Philadelphia this past weekend and before that, played a quality game against a powerful Baltimore team. The beat the Browns by 14 points in their first game against each other, and that won’t be hard to replicate in Week 14.

There’s not much to push with Cleveland. In the Browns’ last four games, they’ve lost by 25, 21, 15 and 14 points. Unless you like playing the “due factor”, I’m not quite sure where the lure is for betting the Browns. I’m sure the Bengals don’t want to be the first team to lose to these guys.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7.5, 45.5)

My original knee jerk reaction to seeing the original line of Patriots -8 was a bit surprising and early money has taken this opener down a notch at a few sportsbooks. But if you can still grab the +8 at your local store, that seems like good value. I made this -7 (EVEN) so anything above the key number seems pretty inviting.

Baltimore has been creeping back into the playoff picture, behind a solid defense. Breaking out 38 points against Miami this past week was hopefully not an aberration. If the Ravens can match their defense with any semblance of an offensive attack, this game should be a close call - and maybe more so for those underdog players. The Ravens defense has allowed 14, 7, 14 and six points, sandwiching their lone loss at Dallas, in the past five games and the team seems to be gelling.

You can’t really complain about New England. On their current three-game win streak since their loss to Seattle, the Patriots haven’t exactly been playing the cream of the crop. Wins against San Francisco, the N.Y. Jets, and Los Angeles won’t rattle any bones, so Baltimore at this point could prove to be a challenge. Toss in the chance of weather issues, and this game looks to be close from the start.

**Udog** · 12-07-2016, 07:38 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 14 NFL lines are going to move

This line has already moved from NE -8 to -7 and the Ravens seem to be one of the few teams that is not intimidated when they play the Patriots in Foxboro.

Game to bet now

Chicago at Detroit (-8)

How good is it to be the Lions these days? Four straight wins – including a dominating 15-point victory at New Orleans last week – has Detroit in prime position in the NFC North at 8-4. Eight years after their groundbreaking 0-16 season, the Lions look like they’re ready to finally break the Green Bay/Minnesota stranglehold on the division. Detroit fans still have nightmares about the bad calls which cost them in a wild card playoff loss to the Cowboys two years ago, but this Lions team looks more than capable of making amends. QB Matthew Stafford actually looks better with Calvin Johnson and is the 5th-rated QB in the league. And on top of everything, they get the Bears this week. At home. If you like the line, jump now because there could be some volatility here.

Game to wait on

Baltimore at New England (-7) (Monday)

This line has already moved from NE -8 to -7, possibly on the news that the Patriots have suffered yet another injury to a receiver (Danny Amendola, out for the rest of the regular season). And the Ravens seem to be one of the few teams that is not intimidated when they play the Patriots in Foxboro. They took apart NE in a playoff game in 2013, and two years after that had the Patriots on the ropes but dropped a TD pass in the end zone and also missed a chip-shot field goal (two weeks before NE defeated Seattle in the Super Bowl). The Ravens are coming off quality home wins over Miami and Cincinnati, but haven’t beaten a decent team on the road. Game is Monday night, so there is plenty of time to see if weekend betting moves the line a half-point either way.

Total to watch

Dallas at New York Giants (47.5)

Under players betting only these two teams all season would have cashed two games out of every three, and with the number in the high 40s this week, you might think that more of the same is on the way. But there are plenty of moving parts here, not the least of which is the Cowboys’ vulnerability (31st in the league) against the pass. Eli Manning is who he is at this point, but he does play well late in the season. Interestingly, this game does not mean all that much – Dallas looks like the No. 1 NFC playoff seed, and the Giants can afford a loss and still be the top wild card team heading into the final three weeks.

**Udog** · 12-07-2016, 09:33 PM

NFL

Thursday, December 8

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Thursday Night Football betting preview: Raiders at Chiefs
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Derek Carr's spirited play during the Oakland Raiders' six-game winning streak has placed the third-year quarterback in the discussion for NFL MVP honors.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46)

Derek Carr's spirited play during the Oakland Raiders' six-game winning streak has placed the third-year quarterback in the lively discussion for NFL MVP honors. Carr has thrown seven touchdown passes over his last three games and 12 during the winning streak as the first-place Raiders head into an AFC West showdown with the host Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday night.

Carr rallied Oakland from a 15-point halftime deficit in Sunday's 38-24 victory over Buffalo, all while working exclusively out of the shotgun/pistol to protect his injured right pinkie finger. "It brought me back to my Fresno (State) days a little bit, so that was nice with the tempo and those kind of things," said the 25-year-old Carr, who will look to avenge a far less effective performance in Week 6 when he threw for 225 yards in a 26-10 loss to Kansas City. The Chiefs kept Carr in park with a successful ground game, highlighted by Spencer Ware rolling up a career-high 131 yards and a touchdown. The 25-year-old Ware, who will look to light up the 29th-ranked Raiders' run defense that is yielding 124.8 yards per contest, also found the end zone in Sunday's 29-28 victory at Atlanta.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (-4) - Chiefs (-3) + home field (-3) = Chiefs -2

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened as 3-point home favorites and the line has yet to move as of Wednesday evening. The total hit the board at 46.5 and has dropped down to 46. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Cold temperatures (low 20's), clear skies and moderate winds (10 mph) are in the forecast for Thursday night in Kansas City. Football weather!

INJURY REPORT:

Raiders - DT D. Latham (Questionable, ankle), LB C. James (Questionable, shoulder), OL K. Osemele (Questionable, knee), LB S. Calhoun (Out, knee), DT S. McGee (Out, ankle), S K. Joseph (Out, toe), LB A. Smith (Out INdefinitely, suspension), DE M. Edwards (Out, hip), CB D. Hayden (I-R, hamstring), TE L. Smith (I-R, leg), LB B. Heeney (I-R, ankle), LB N. Ball (I-R, undisclosed), TE G. Holmes (I-R, ankle).

Chiefs - LB T. Hali (Probable, knee), WR J. Maclin (Probable, groin), DB P. Gaines (Probable, knee), DL D. Poe (Probable, back), DL K. Reyes (Probable, knee), QB T. Bray (Out Indefinitely, back), DL J. Howard (I-R, hip), RB J. Charles (I-R, knee), OL P. Ehinger (I-R, knee), DL A. Bailey (I-R, shoulder), LB J. March (I-R, undisclosed), FB T. Millard (I-R, knee), LB J. Mauga (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS, 10-2 O/U): While Carr is being mentioned in NFL MVP discussion, defensive end Khalil Mack is hearing his name bandied about for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors. Mack has registered at least one of his team-leading 10 sacks in each of the last seven games, while also recording four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and an interception in that span. Latavius Murray, who has three touchdowns in his last four encounters with Kansas City, scored twice last week to increase his rushing touchdown total to 11 - good enough for a tie for third in the league. Second-year wideout Amari Cooper collected 10 receptions for 129 yards in the first meeting with the Chiefs, but was limited to just two catches on Sunday versus the Bills.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS, 4-8 O/U): Alex Smith, who has thrown 18 touchdowns against three interceptions in his last nine starts versus the Raiders, is expected to see the return of trusted target Jeremy Maclin on Thursday. Maclin was a full participant in practice on Tuesday and is in line to end a four-game absence due to a groin injury. Tight end Travis Kelce recorded his third straight 100-plus-yard performance after reeling in eight receptions for 140 yards versus the Falcons, but was limited to three catches for 32 yards in the Week 6 win over Oakland.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Kansas City.

CONSENSUS: The picking public is siding with the home favorite Chiefs and Over is grabbing 63 percent of the totals wagers.

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Thursday's game
Raiders (10-2) @ Chiefs (9-3)— Long travel, short work week for Oakland; temps expected to be in 20’s. First place is up for grabs in AFC West; Chiefs won first meeting 26-10 (-1.5) in Oakland in Week 6- KC ran ball for 183 yards, was +2 in turnovers and shut Raiders out 13-0 in second half. Chiefs won six of last seven series games, with five of six wins by 14+ points. Oakland lost last three visits to Arrowhead by 17-18-6 points. Raiders won last six games overall (5-1 vs spread); they won/covered all five true road games this year, are 4-0 as road underdogs. Chiefs won seven of last eight games; they’re 4-1 at home, but 1-4 as home favorites, winning at Arrowhead by 6-21-6-5 points, with loss to Tampa Bay. Over is 10-2 in Raider games, 2-6 in last eight Chief games.

**Udog** · 12-08-2016, 09:14 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Thursday, December 8

Oakland @ Kansas City

Game 101-102
December 8, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
138.292
Kansas City
137.490
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3); Over

Sunday, December 11

Dallas @ NY Giants

Game 131-132
December 11, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
139.427
NY Giants
133.434
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 6
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-3); Over

Atlanta @ Los Angeles

Game 129-130
December 11, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.701
Los Angeles
127.123
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 9 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 6
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-6); Under

Seattle @ Green Bay

Game 127-128
December 11, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.810
Green Bay
138.709
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 3
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
46
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3); Over

NY Jets @ San Francisco

Game 125-126
December 11, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
116.996
San Francisco
127.446
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 10 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 2 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-2 1/2); Under

Washington @ Philadelphia

Game 123-124
December 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
131.948
Philadelphia
128.569
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
Pick
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
Over

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Game 121-122
December 11, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
135.083
Tampa Bay
135.493
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
Even
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+3); Under

Minnesota @ Jacksonville

Game 119-120
December 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
126.732
Jacksonville
132.323
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
39
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+3 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Detroit

Game 117-118
December 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
125.992
Detroit
141.365
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 15 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 7 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-7 1/2); Under

Arizona @ Miami

Game 115-116
December 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
131.495
Miami
130.645
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 1
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+1); Over

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo

Game 113-114
December 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
133.541
Buffalo
139.812
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+2 1/2); Over

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Game 111-112
December 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
133.656
Cleveland
119.893
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 14
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 5 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-5 1/2); Under

Houston @ Indianapolis

Game 109-110
December 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
125.936
Indianapolis
136.712
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 11
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 5 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-5 1/2); Under

San Diego @ Carolina

Game 107-108
December 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
132.980
Carolina
131.463
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 1 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+1 1/2); Over

Denver @ Tennessee

Game 105-106
December 11, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
128.325
Tennessee
138.266
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 10
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 1
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-1); Under

Monday, December 12

Baltimore @ New England

Game 133-134
December 12, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
129.125
New England
145.568
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 16 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Under

**Udog** · 12-08-2016, 09:27 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Sunday's games
Broncos (8-4) @ Titans (6-6)— Denver is 7-1 in non-division games this year, with only loss in Week 5 to Atlanta; Broncos are 4-2 on road, 2-1 as road underdogs- they’re 5-29 (17.2%) on 3rd down in two games Lynch started, 57-137 (41.7%) in Siemian starts. Titans won three of last four home games, scoring 34.3 pts/game; they’re +6 in turnovers in last three games, with zero giveaways. Denver won five of last six series games in ’13; this is their first visit here in five years. Tennessee is 1-5 in last six post-bye games; they were an underdog in only two of those six games. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 15-3 vs spread, 9-3 as underdogs. AFC South home teams are 7-10, 5-4 as favorites. Four of last five Bronco road games stayed under total; eight of last nine Tennessee games went over.

Chargers (5-7) @ Panthers (4-8)— Carolina lost three of last four games, is out of playoff race after dismal 40-7 loss in Seattle where QB Newton was benched for first series- sounds like they’ve got internal issues. Visitor won four of last five series games; Carolina is 4-1 in last five games vs San Diego- teams split two meetings here. Chargers are 5-1 vs spread this year in game following a loss; they’re 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, with wins at Atlanta and Houston (both domes). Carolina is 3-3 at home, 2-4 as a home favorite. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 4-9 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 9-3. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Charger games, 1-4 in Carolina’s last five home games. Philip Rivers started 52 games at NC State; this is first time he’s played in Charlotte since 2004.

Texans (6-6) @ Colts (6-6)— Short week for Indy after easy win Monday night in New Jersey. Colts are 1-3-1 vs spread this year in game following a win. Houston lost its last three games by 7-8-8 points, scoring 15.3 pts/game; they’re 1-5 on road, 1-4 as road underdogs, losing away games by 27-18-18-7-8 points, with win at Jacksonville- this is their 4th road game in last five weeks. Colts are 3-3 at home, 3-1 as home favorites. Texans won first meeting 26-23 in OT in Week 6, game they trailed 13-3 at half- Houston is 6-23 vs Indy, 2-6 in last eight meetings. Texans are are 1-13 in Indy, losing 16-10 here LY. Home favorites are 3-2 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Under is 4-2 in last six Houston games, 3-0 in Colts’ last three home games.

Bengals (4-7-1) @ Browns (0-12)— Robert Griffin III is expected back at QB for Browns, who had last week off; Cleveland is 1-4-1 vs spread as a home underdog, losing home games by 5-20-3-25-15-14 points- they’re 6-5 vs spread in last 11 post-bye games. Bengals snapped 1-5-1 skid with rout of Eagles last week; they’re 1-5 in true road games, with only win 23-22 in Week 1 at the Jets. Cincy is 3-5 as a favorite this season; they won first meeting with Browns 31-17 (-9.5) in Week 7, running ball for 271 yards; total yardage was 559-352. Bengals won last four series games by average score of 32-8; they won last two visits here, 30-0/37-3. Favorites are 6-1 vs spread in AFC North games this year, 1-1 on road. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games, 4-0 in Cleveland’s last four.

Steelers (7-5) @ Bills (6-6)— Going to be a mixed crowd in Orchard Park for pivotal game in AFC playoff race. Pittsburgh won last five series games and nine of last ten, holding Buffalo to 11.2 pts/game in last five. Steelers won their last three visits here- their last loss in Buffalo was in ’99. Bills are 3-2 at home, 1-1 as home underdogs; they ran ball for 182.7 yds/game in three games since their bye, but they allowed 28+ points in four of last six games, have zero takeaways in last two games. Steelers won/covered last three games, allowing 10 pts/game; they’re 3-3 SU/ATS on road and were favored in all six games. AFC North non-divisional road teams are 5-10 vs spread, 3-4 in favored. AFC East home teams are 8-8, 4-3 as an underdog. Over is 9-2 in last 11 Buffalo games, 2-9 in Steelers’ last 11.

Cardinals (5-6-1) @ Dolphins (7-5)— Arizona is 1-4 on road this year, giving up 32.8 pts/game in losses; their only road win is at 1-11 SF. Redbirds scored five TDs on nine drives LW; they’re 4-1-1 if they don’t turn ball over, 1-5 if they do. Miami had 6-game win streak snapped LW by Ravens; Dolphins are 5-1 at home with only loss to Titans; they’re 1-3 as home favorites and needed OT to beat 0-12 Browns at home. Arizona won last three series games after an 0-8 skid vs Miami; Cardinals are 1-4 in Miami with only win in ’04. Three of last four series games were decided by 3 or less points. NFC West non-divisional road teams are 6-11 vs spread, 4-7 as underdogs. NFC East home teams are 8-8, 4-5 as favorites. Over is 4-2 in last six Arizona games, 4-1 in last five Dolphin games.

Bears (3-9) @ Lions (8-4)— Lions have a 2-game lead in NFC North; why does that make me nervous about them? Chicago (+3.5) upset Detroit 17-14 at home in Week 4, outgaining Lions 408-263; Detroit’s only TD came on a punt return. Bears’ win snapped 6-game series skid vs Lions, with last three series losses all by 6 or less points; Chicago lost its last three visits here, by 8-17-3 points. Bears are 0-6 on road this season, 1-4 as a road underdog, with losses on foreign soil by 9-14-6-16-26-6 points. Last week was first time this year; Detroit didn’t trail in 4th quarter. Lions won/covered last four games, are 5-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorite, winning by 1-3-3-7-3 points at home. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 17-17-1 vs spread. Under is 6-0 in Lions’ last six games, 5-2 in Chicago’s last seven.

Vikings (6-6) @ Jaguars (2-10)— Coach Zimmer is back at practice this week, with patch over his eye; Minnesota lost six of last seven games after a 5-0 start- they lost last two games by a combined five points. Vikings lost their last four road games. Jax lost its last seven games (2-5 vs spread); they’re 0-5 at home, 0-4 vs spread in last four, with losses by 4-2-17-3-10 points. Jaguars are -16 in turnovers (2-18) in their last eight games- they’ve allowed four TD’s on offense/special teams in last four games. Vikings won four of five series games, winning 26-23 in OT in last meeting four years ago. Minnesota won its only visit here 30-12 in ’08. NFC North non divisional road teams are 8-10 vs spread, 1-4 as favorites. AFC South home teams are 7-10, 2-6 as underdogs. Under is 9-3 in Minnesota road games, 3-2 in Jags’ last five games.

Saints (5-7) @ Buccaneers (7-5)— New Orleans is 6-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, 4-0 on road. New Orleans is 0-5 when it scores less than 25 points. Tampa Bay has won four straight road games for first time ever, but they’re 2-4 at home. Bucs won/covered last four games overall, allowing only 14.3 pts/game the last three weeks. Tampa is 7-5 despite being favored in only two games (1-1) this season. Saints lost three of last four games, are 2-3 on road, with four of five games decided by 6 or less points. NO won eight of last nine series games, with last four decided by 7 or less points; Saints won last four visits here, by 7-2-3-7 points. Underdogs covered five of six NFC South divisional games this season. Under is 5-2 in Saints’ last seven games, 2-0-1 in Bucs’ last three.

Redskins (6-5-1) @ Eagles (5-7)— Washington won last four meetings with Philly, with average total in last five series games, 54.8; Redskins won first meeting this year 27-20 (+3) in Week 6, with only Eagle TDs scored by defense/special teams. Skins outgained Philly 493-239, ran ball for 230 yards- they’re 6-5 in last 11 visits here. Eagles lost seven of last nine games after a 3-0 start; Philly is 4-1 at home, with only loss to Packers two weeks ago- their last game with a positive turnover ratio was in Week 6. Washington allowed 31-31 points in losing its last couple games; they lost last three road games, by 3-5-8 points. Opponents are 21-39 on third down vs Washington the last three weeks. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 10-2 in Washington games, 0-5 in Eagle home games.

Jets (3-9) @ 49ers (1-11)— Imagine losing 11 games in a row and being favored in the 12th game, and favored for second week in a row? 49ers are 2-9 vs spread in last 11 games and they were underdog in 10 of those 11. SF had 5 passing yards in snow in Chicago LW; Bears had 184 in same weather, on same field. Long trip west for Jets on short week after 41-10 beating they took from Colts Monday night. Petty gets 2nd career start at QB here; he was 19-32/163 in his first start, a 9-6 home loss to Rams. Jets are 2-4 on road, 1-4 as an underdog; their wins were in Buffalo/Cleveland. Gang Green is -7 in turnovers the last four weeks. 49ers are 10-2 in this series, winning 34-0 in last meeting in ’12; Jets are 1-4 in five visits here, with one win in 1983. Under is 6-2 in last eight Jet games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four.

Seahawks (8-3-1) @ Packers (6-6)— Home side is 10-1 in last 11 series games; Seahawks lost last six visits here, with last win in Wisconsin in 1999. Seattle was held to 3-6-20-5 points in games they didn’t win; they scored 26+ points in their wins. Hard to envision Packer defense shutting down former Badger QB Wilson. Seahawks are 2-3-1 on road, beating Jets/Patriots. Green Bay is 4-2 at home, losing to Cowboys/Colts; they won last two weeks, holding Eagles/Texans to 13 points each. Seahawks haven’t allowed a second-half point in their last two games. NFC West non-divisional road teams are 6-11 vs spread, 2-4 as favorites. NFC North home teams are 9-7, 3-1 as underdogs. Under is 4-2 in both Seattle road games and Green Bay home games.

Falcons (7-5) @ Rams (4-8)— LA is in freefall, losing seven of last eight games, with only win 9-6 against Bryce Petty-led Jets. Second home start for Goff; it rained during his first one, when Rams blew 10-0 lead over Dolphins with 5:00 left. LA is 1-3 at home, with only win 9-3 over Seahawks. Atlanta is 4-2 on road, 1-1 as road favorite; they’ve allowed 7+ yards/pass attempt in last five games. Falcons allowed 24+ points in six of last seven games; curious to see if Goff can move chains against this defense. Atlanta won five of last six series games, winning last three by 4-17-7 points; average total in last three series games is 54.7. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-11 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC West underdogs are 4-12 vs spread, 0-5 at home. Over is 10-2 in Atlanta games, 1-4 in last five Ram games.

Cowboys (11-1) @ Giants (8-4)— Dallas won its last 11 games (9-2 vs spread) since losing to Giants 20-19 in season opener, just second loss in last seven games with New York. Cowboys won four of last six visits here; four of their last five wins against the Giants were by 5 or less points- average total in last eight series games is 51.8. Cowboys are 6-0 on road on road with three wins by 5 or less points- they’ve got only one takeaway in last five games (-2). Giants had 6-game win streak snapped LW; New York is 5-1 at home, with only loss 29-27 to Redskins. Giants are just 13-38 on third down their last three games. Underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Under is 4-0 in Giants’ last four games, 4-1 in last five Dallas road games.

Monday's game
Ravens (7-5) @ Patriots (10-2)— Baltimore is 4-1 since its bye week, allowing 13.6 pts/game, but the four wins were all at home; Ravens are 2-3 on road with wins at Browns/Jaguars- their road losses are by 4-8-10 points. Baltimore is only 7-5 but they’re tied for first in AFC North and is 4-0 in its divisional games. Patriots are 7-1 with Brady at QB; six of the seven wins are by 11+ points- they’re 3-2 as home favorites this year. New England is 9-3 in last 12 series games, 7-1 in regular season games (2-2 in playoff meetings); Ravens lost seven of last nine visits here. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-10 vs spread, 2-6 on road. AFC East favorites are 8-5, 4-5 at home. Under is 5-1 in Ravens’ last six games, 3-0 in last three Patriot games.

**Udog** · 12-08-2016, 12:43 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Thurs – Dec. 8

Oakland at Kansas City, 8:25 PM ET
Oakland: 10-0 ATS in road games against conference opponents
Kansas City: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Sun – Dec. 11

Denver at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Denver: 2-0 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game
Tennessee: 1-10 ATS off a non-conference game

San Diego at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET
San Diego: 19-7 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a home favorite
Carolina: 0-6 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Houston at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 6-17 ATS in dome games
Indianapolis: 13-2 ATS off a road blowout win by 21points or more

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati: 28-11 ATS after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half
Cleveland: 2-10 ATS as an underdog

Pittsburgh at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins
Buffalo: 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Arizona at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
Arizona: 10-2 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
Miami: 2-10 ATS off a road loss

Chicago at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 27-45 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Detroit: 7-1 ATS in games played on turf

Minnesota at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 6-0 ATS in non-conference games
Jacksonville: 18-35 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game

New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 4:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 11-3 ATS as an underdog
Tampa Bay: 100-69 UNDER as a favorite

Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM ET
Washington: 28-48 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
Philadelphia: 15-5 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses

NY Jets at San Francisco, 4:05 PM ET
New York: 7-0 ATS after 4 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
San Francisco: 2-10 ATS in home games off 2 consecutive road losses

Seattle at Green Bay, 4:25 PM ET
Seattle: 6-20 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more
Green Bay: 21-10 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49

Atlanta at LA Rams, 4:25 PM ET
Atlanta: 32-16 ATS in road games after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Los Angeles: 8-22 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

Dallas at NY Giants, 8:30 PM ET
Dallas: 11-2 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
New York: 13-26 ATS after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game

Mon – Dec. 12

Baltimore at New England, 8:30 PM ET
Baltimore: 5-15 ATS in road games after a win by 21 or more points
New England: 9-1 ATS after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game

**Udog** · 12-09-2016, 07:25 AM

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

Six interesting NFL trends, with Week 14 upon us:

— Cleveland is 1-9 vs spread in its last ten divisional games.

— Rams are 1-5-1 vs spread in their last seven games.

— Falcons are 6-17 in their last 23 games as a favorite.

— Tennessee is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite.

— New Orleans covered its last seven road games.

— Texans are 7-1-1 vs spread in their last nine divisional games.

**********

Armadillo: Friday's List of 13: Our bottom 5, top 8 in the NFL

32) Browns— 25 people in San Antonio voted for Gregg Popovich for President; when I heard that, i was actually surprised the number was only 25. Wish I had thought of it when I was in the voting booth; Popovich would’ve been a better choice than Gary Johnson.

31) Jaguars— Football coach Willie Taggart was making $1.8M at South Florida, left USF to go to Oregon, where he will make less than Purdue’s Jeff Brohm, who was making $800K at Western Kentucky. Brohm will make $3.3M, Taggart $3.2M.

30) 49ers— Niners are favored this week, for second week in a row. They’re 1-11.

29) Bears— At the Pearl Harbor basketball games this week (Seton Hall-Cal, Princeton-Hawai’i), a 97-year old World War II veteran played the National Anthem on a harmonica and it was tremendous.

28) Rams— If the Chargers move to the LA Coliseum next year, will they put FieldTurf down? Hosting three teams on the same field could be dicey for a natural grass field.

8) Giants— Big ballgame with the Cowboys in Swamp Stadium Sunday night. Giant defense is going to miss the injured Pierre-Paul.

7) Steelers— 13 years later, if you had to rank Eli-Big Ben-Rivers’ careers, who would be 1-2-3? They were all in the same draft.

6) Lions— Will OC Jim Bob Cooter be a head coaching candidate next month? He’s done a great job with Matthew Stafford.

5) Seahawks— Ever see Pawn Stars on the History Channel? I’ve been in that shop in Las Vegas; much smaller than it looks on TV, mostly jewelry there, but a cool place. It is worth a couple hours to look around and see if there is anything worth buying.

4) Chiefs— KC’s defense/special teams have accounted for NFL-high 49.5% of Chiefs’ points this season. By way of comparison:

2015 Broncos: 45.9%…..2000 Ravens: 46.5%…..1985 Bears: 42.1%

3) Raiders— A school district in Texas, the McKinney Independent School District, broke ground this week on a $69M football stadium. For a high school team. Oy.

2) Patriots— RIP John Glenn 95, an Astronaut/US Senator (for 25 years) who lived a great life. He was the first American to orbit the earth, and actually went up in space again in 1998, at age 77. RIP, sir.

1— Cowboys— Some team in the next couple years will draft a QB and throw him in the starting lineup right away in part because of the success Dak Prescott is having. They better have as good an offensive line as Dallas has, or else……..

**Udog** · 12-09-2016, 09:23 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 14

Tyler Eifert has a terrific matchup this week against the Browns, whose defensive grades, in many cases, can best be described as "below average."

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, 39.5)

Vikings' early defensive dominance vs. Jaguars' first-half failures

Plenty has gone wrong for the Jacksonville Jaguars this season, from the shoddy quarterback play of Blake Bortles to the non-existent running game to a defense that is only now showing the improvement experts gushed about in the preseason. But one of the most alarming areas in which Jacksonville has struggled this season is its inability to produce any first-half offense - a problem that should be exposed Sunday against one of the top first-half defenses in football.

The Vikings have shown plenty of cracks in recent games thanks in large part to the offense proving incapable of staying on the field with any regularity. But you still have to consider Minnesota one of the stingiest teams in the NFL, particularly when it comes to opponent scoring in the first two quarters: the Vikings are allowing just 9.8 first-half points, tied with Detroit for the ninth-best mark in the league. They allowed just seven first-half points to powerhouse Dallas last week before ultimately falling 17-15.

Expect that average to get even better after a Week 14 encounter with a Jacksonville offense that has been off the rails for the majority of the season. The Bortles-led Jaguars have scored a pitiful 6.9 first-half points per game in 2016, easily the worst mark in the league; the Miami Dolphins (7.8) are the only other team in the NFL below eight. Combine the Jags' early struggles with the Vikings' ability to harangue the quarterback, and Jacksonville fans might want to consider waiting until halftime to show up.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Allen Robinson

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+5.5, 43)

Bengals standout TE Tyler Eifert vs. Browns' tight end ineptitude

The last thing the Bengals want is to be the team that let the lowly Browns end their 12-game losing streak. So expect quarterback Andy Dalton and Co. to do whatever it takes to keep Cleveland off-balance on offense and forced into long stretches on defense. A big part of successful executing that strategy will be utilizing tight end Tyler Eifert, who has a major mismatch against a Browns defensive unit that just can't figure out how to defend the position.

Eifert came into his own as a significant red-zone threat last season, and has carried that momentum over into 2016. After missing the first six games recovering from injury, the 6-foot-6 behemoth has slowly returned to form, racking up 338 receiving yards and three scores in six games. More significantly, he has won over the fine folks at Pro Football Focus, who have him graded at 84.9 for the season - the sixth-best mark at his position, and only slightly behind his 2015 grade of 85.5.

He has a terrific matchup this week against the Browns, whose defensive grades, in many cases, can best be described as "below average." Three of the team's four defensive lineman in the nickel package boast grades below 45, while their two safeties - Tracy Howard (50.5) and Ed Reynolds (62.0) - don't grade out much better. The Browns have allowed the most touchdowns (nine), the fifth-most catches (72) and the sixth-most receiving yards (782) to tight ends. Eifert should have a field day.

Daily fantasy watch: TE Tyler Eifert

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (+3, 46.5)

Seahawks' struggles with 3rd down D vs. Packers' drive extension skills

It's going to be a chilly one at Lambeau Field, where the Seahawks and Packers do battle this weekend. But, while the temperature - expected to dip into the high-teens later in the game - will certainly draw plenty of attention, bettors should also consider one of the biggest mismatches of the week. Seattle's defense ain't what she used to be, and the Packers will look to exploit one major weakness that would allow the home team to dominate the time of possession.

In addition to many other defensive accolades, the Seahawks were one of the league's top drive stoppers in 2015, allowing teams to convert third downs just 34.98 percent of the time. That rate was the seventh-best in the NFL, and had a major role in Seattle's ability to build big leads and keep opponents down. That isn't the case this season, with Seattle ranking a stunning 27th in opponent third-down conversion rate (42.86 percent) entering Sunday.

That could be a major problem at Lambeau, with the Packers coming into this one with the second-best third-down conversion percentage in football (47.85 percent). Green Bay has been even deadlier over its last three games, converting 51.22 percent of its third-down opportunities. If Aaron Rodgers can extend drives against visiting Seattle - and keep that Seahawks defense on the field - it could be enough to give the Packers the edge.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Jordy Nelson

Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots (-7, 45.5)

Ravens' rambunctious ways vs. Patriots' trademark discipline

The Patriots - and more specifically, quarterback Tom Brady - have traditionally done well when facing defenses ranked No. 1 in the league. And with home-field advantage also working in New England's favor, the sledding might be tough for visiting Baltimore this Monday night. But the biggest impediment to the Ravens being competitive at Foxboro might be their penalty issues - something the Patriots haven't had to deal with this season.

The penalty picture has been an ugly one for the Ravens so far in 2016; they rank third overall in accepted penalties with 99, and third in accepted yards with 866. A whopping 27 of those flags have come in the last three weeks, totaling 263 yards. They've gone over the 100-yard mark in penalties three separate times this season, and lost all three games. And they've incurred 414 penalty yards on the offensive side of the ball, which must drive quarterback Joe Flacco batty.

It should come as no surprise that the Patriots find themselves on the opposite side of the penalty spectrum, ranking 28th in the league with just 74 accepted flags. They've committed just 30 fouls on the defensive side of the ball, and have been flagged five or fewer times on five occasions this season. If they stay disciplined, they should have no trouble winning the flag war with the Ravens - and that could make a big difference come Monday.

Daily fantasy watch: New England D/ST

**Udog** · 12-10-2016, 09:33 PM

NFL Underdogs: Week 14 pointspread picks and predictions

It's tough to back the Browns with a 0-16 season staring them in the face, but if they can't at least cover in Week 14 they may never cover again.

Something felt different when waking up this week.

Your feet hit the floor at the side of you bed and it sends a shiver up your spine. Getting out of a hot shower becomes unbearable, the second you step outside you see your breath and, worst of all, you have to scrape frost off your windshield with a device people down south have never seen.

Yes unfortunately for me, I live in the northeast and winter is here.

Winter up here is tough. It’s cold and wet all at the same time. It’s the type of cold that you feel deep down in your bones and I have come to realize I am not built for winter. I hate the cold. I don’t particularly like skiing or snowboarding. Heck, I don’t even like hockey that much (I’m a bad Canadian).

It’s just a terribly uncomfortable feeling.

However, it won’t be nearly as uncomfortable as the remaining winter the Cleveland Browns and their fans will have suffer if the Dawg Pound isn’t rewarded with at least one win this season.

The Browns are just four losses away from a historic season for all the wrong reasons: 0-16. Woof. To make matters worse, Cleveland hasn’t just been bad on the field, it's been almost as bad at the betting window, cashing just twice in the team’s first 12 games including a putrid 0-6 ATS record at home.

That poor performance and most other stats say fade them against the visiting Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14. Yet, like my dream of someday living in a place with a year round summer, I have hope.

With Cleveland welcoming state rival Cincinnati to town, it looks to be the Browns’ best bet to avoid the dubious mark. After this week they travel to Buffalo and then host the Chargers, before ending their season at Pittsburgh.

OK, I know it’s going to be tough, but let’s make a case for the Brownies.

First, the motivation to avoid 0-16 has to be very great. Throw in facing a hated division rival at home and this looks like as good a spot as any to get off the schneid.

Second, luckily for us, the Bengals are almost as bad a bet on the road as the Browns are at home. Cincinnati is 1-5 SU and ATS on the road this year.

The Bengals are also missing two key pieces to their offense. They’ll once again be without star wide receiver A.J. Green, who is dealing with a groin injury, and running back Giovanni Bernard, who suffered a torn ACL.

Finally, there's Robert Griffin III. Love him or hate him, he’ll be back under center for the Browns this week and should remain there for the rest of the season - if he can stay healthy. This is more than likely Griffin’s last shot to prove he can be starting quarterback in the NFL and for some reason or another, I think there’s some fight left in him.

So like me, the Browns are thinking of warmer days ahead and I think they're going to get it done. Or at least cover.

Pick: Browns +5.5

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (+6)

The Falcons are doing what we are accustomed to seeing over the past few seasons once the winter months roll around: fall from their perch atop the NFC South.

Atlanta has dropped three of its past four SU and ATS, after bolting out of the gates to a 5-1 start. They are now 7-5 and tied with Tampa Bay at the top of the division.

The Falcons' third-ranked passing offense has been paced by great seasons from Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, but the Rams' physical secondary, which allows just 231 yards per game through the air, matches up well with them.

The key though, will be pressuring Ryan with the pass rush. The Falcons have had issues keeping Ryan off the turf, allowing 29 sacks this season, and face off against a very strong front seven that contains the likes of Aaron Donald, Robert Quinn and Alec Ogletree.

Plus, the Falcons are travelling to the Coliseum in Los Angeles, where the Rams have allowed nine, 19, 10, 10 and 10 points in five games at home. I have said before, I love when teams with good defenses get this many points at home.

Look for the Falcons winter free fall to continue.

Pick: Rams +6

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5)

Week 1 seems like a long time ago. But that was the last time the Cowboys lost a game, to this very Giants team as a matter of fact.

The Cowboys always seem to come through in the clutch when it comes to winning games, but they’ve dropped two in a row against the spread. Don’t expect the Giants to let them walk in and clinch the NFC East at MetLife stadium in a laugher.

That doesn’t happen too often between these two rivals.

The key here is the matchup. This NFC East rivalry has been hotly contested, with the average margin of victory being just three points over the last four meetings (in all of which the Giants covered) and just 5.9 points over the last 10. That includes the Giants' narrow 20-19 victory the season opener.

While I’m not sure if the Giants win this game, the hook at +3.5 is too tempting to pass up at home. I think this is another close battle.

Pick: Giants +3.5

Last Week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 22-16-1 ATS

**Udog** · 12-10-2016, 09:35 PM

Essential Week 14 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Packers will be underdogs at Lambeau Field for the first time in 23 games when they host the Seahawks this Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (3, 46)

* Quarterback Tyrod Taylor walked away from the podium during Wednesday's media conference amid questions of his future with his numbers dipping across the board, but he received staunch support from his coach. "I just think it is easy to sit back and be critical, but if you are playing without five receivers in the game ... I think it is going to affect you," Ryan said. Barring any setbacks, Taylor could have both his top two wide receivers -- Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods -- in the lineup for the first time since Week 2 to complement running back LeSean McCoy, who is coming off consecutive 100-yard games. The bigger worry for Ryan and the Bills is a defense that surrendered 29 unanswered points to the Raiders.

* With Ben Roethlisberger at the helm of a high-powered attack that features running back Le'Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh's offense typically garners the headlines. However, a much-maligned defense that was pierced for 113 points during the four-game skid has answered the bell during the winning streak, allowing a total of 30 points and holding the New York Giants to one touchdown until the final minute of last week's 24-14 victory. "There’s no time to slap ourselves on the back," cautioned 38-year-old linebacker James Harrison, part of a unit that has registered 13 sacks in the past three games. Tight end Ladarius Green has bolstered the offense with six catches for 110 yards and a TD last week.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games in Week 14.
* Over is 7-1 in Bills last 8 games overall.
* Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers (-1.5, 48.5)

* Casey Hayward has been a thorn in the side of opposing quarterbacks this season as he leads the NFL with seven interceptions - including four in his last five games. The fifth-year cornerback out of Vanderbilt made a total of three picks in 35 contests with Green Bay over the previous three campaigns. Defensive end Joe Bosa is tied for third among NFL rookies with 5.5 sacks despite missing four games with a hamstring injury.

* Newton has excelled at home of late, throwing 19 touchdown passes and running for five more scores while being intercepted just six times in his last nine contests. Jonathan Stewart has rushed for seven touchdowns in his last seven games while Ted Ginn Jr. has hauled in a scoring pass in three consecutive contests. Linebacker Luke Kuechly has missed two games while in concussion protocol but has participated in practice this week and could play against San Diego.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
* Chargers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Chargers last 6 games overall.
* Over is 8-2 in Panthers last 10 games following a straight up loss.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (5.5, 41)

* Cincinnati's lackluster campaign and no playoff wins despite five straight appearances is bringing into question coach Marvin Lewis' job security, but he doesn't seem worried. "This is a joint thing, everybody has to do it together," Lewis told reporters. "Otherwise it doesn't work. They committed to me and I've committed to them. I'm going to work my tail off for them to get it right. This year, we didn't get it right yet. We've still got a chance to get it right." The Bengals got some things right on offense last week despite missing running back Giovani Bernard (knee) and leading receiver A.J. Green (hamstring) as quarterback Andy Dalton spread the ball around to nine different receivers en route to 332 passing yards in the 32-14 triumph.

* Coach Hue Jackson is a former assistant of Lewis with the Bengals and plans to be with the Browns when they turn things around. "I think the optimism and positivity and effort you still see out there on a daily basis is because everybody here knows we're working for something down the line in the future," left tackle Joe Thomas told reporters, "and it's not just going to get destroyed at the end of the season." One player that figures to have a future with the Browns is Pryor, who is up to 855 receiving yards in his breakout campaign after recording 131 in a loss to the New York Giants last week.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Browns are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 9-2 in Bengals last 11 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Browns last 4 games overall.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-7.5, 43.5)

* The Bears are 0-6 on the road this season and their passing game has been decimated by injuries. They added Marquess Wilson (groin) to their long list of banged-up receivers last week and have to wait another game until Alshon Jeffrey can return from his suspension for performance enhancing drugs. Barkley notched his first NFL win against the 49ers but he was mostly ineffective, throwing for just 192 yards without a touchdown in the snow. Jordan Howard picked up the slack by gaining 117 and scoring three times as his outstanding rookie season continues.

* Stafford, who is sixth in the league with a 100.5 passer rating, had his worst game of the season against the Bears, throwing two of his five interceptions without a touchdown. Things should be better this time around as Detroit, which had come from behind in the fourth quarter to win all of its games this season before throttling the Saints last week. Running back Theo Riddick, who leads the team with 357 yards on the ground, missed practice time with an ankle injury but expects to play. The Lions re-signed Joique Bell as Dwayne Washington's ankle injury appears to be more serious.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 vs. NFC.
* Under is 6-0 in Lions last 6 games overall.
* Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Detroit.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 46.5)

* Osweiler is 31st in the NFL among 32 qualified quarterbacks with a 74.2 rating and is last in yards per attempt at 5.77, but coach Bill O'Brien put the team's struggles on himself after a 21-13 loss at Green Bay last week. "It comes down to eight to 10 plays a game, and a lot of that has to do with coaching," O'Brien told reporters. "We have to do a better job coaching and players have to do a better job executing, but we're all in it together and we all have to do a better job." Houston's defense has carried the team most of the season but is starting to spring leaks with defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (wrist/elbow) and cornerback Johnathan Joseph (ribs) sitting out practice this week.

* Luck and the offense could be asked to do even more down the stretch with the defense losing middle linebacker D'Qwell Jackson to a four-game suspension for using performance-enhancing drugs. Jackson, who is the signal-caller on defense and has recorded 78 tackles and a sack this season, is not eligible to return to the team until the day after the end of the regular season. "We're all disappointed," coach Chuck Pagano told reporters. "It is what it is. Moving forward, if we're fortunate enough to play good enough and win enough games, we'll get him back for the playoffs."

TRENDS:

* Texans are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC South.
* Colts are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 vs. AFC South.
* Over is 6-0 in Colts last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings in Indianapolis.
* Texans are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars (3, 39.5)

* It's no surprise that Minnesota's offense has buckled with the early-season injury to star running back Adrian Peterson, failing to score more than 16 points in five of its six defeats. Quarterback Sam Bradford is proving to be a solid game manager with 13 touchdown passes against only three interceptions, but he has failed to reach 250 yards passing in five of the past seven games. Even though starting safety Harrison Smith suffered a severe ankle injury against the Cowboys that could end his season, the Vikings will be relying on a defense that permits 17.4 points per game to stifle the Jaguars. Minnesota is among the league leaders in sacks (31) and interceptions (12).

* Jacksonville's offense remains stuck in the mud and a big reason is the struggles of Blake Bortles, who leads the NFL in both interceptions (15) and turnovers (19). Bortles needs to find a way to connect with wideout Allen Robinson, who is averaging 51.8 yards per game following last season's 1,400-yard campaign. An already struggling ground game is dealing with injuries to Chris Ivory (hamstring) and Denard Robinson (ankle), leaving a banged-up T.J. Yeldon to carry the load against the Vikings. The Jaguars rank second defensively against the pass with an average of 195.8 yards per game, but they have a league-low three interceptions and have forced only five fumbles.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
* Under is 5-1 in Vikings last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (2, 43.5)

* Arizona is making its first trek to play a regular-season game in Miami since 2004. How long ago was that? Well, veteran wideout Larry Fitzgerald began his active streak (191) of catching at least one pass in that contest, which he capped with a touchdown reception with 19 seconds remaining to push the Cardinals to a 24-23 victory. Fitzgerald (NFL high-tying 88 catches) is a trusted target of veteran Carson Palmer, who recorded his 48th career 300-yard performance last week and 21st as a member of Arizona to reside one shy of Kurt Warner's franchise record.

* Jay Ajayi announced his presence by eclipsing the 200-yard plateau in back-to-back outings and adding a 111-yard performance coming out of the team's bye before being held under 80 yards in each of his last four games. The second-year back could continue to struggle to amass yards versus Arizona, which boasts the second-ranked total defense (297.3). Jarvis Landry erupted for 11 catches last week while Miami tried in vain to rally versus Baltimore, but should be shadowed by Patrick Peterson. Linebacker Kiko Alonso (team-leading 97 tackles) missed practice on Thursday due to thumb and hamstring injuries and is unsure if he'll play on Sunday.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
* Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Dolphins last 6 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (2.5, 46.5)

* Washington boasts the NFL's second-ranked offense (418.6 yards per game) and could get a boost as Jordan Reed told reporters he feels confident he'll play on Sunday after sitting out last week's tilt with a Grade 3 separation of the AC joint in his left shoulder. Coach Jay Gruden wasn't exactly on board with his stud tight end's health report, saying he has "absolutely no idea" if Reed will play and that it could come down to Saturday afternoon or game time before a decision is made. Reed ripped the Eagles for nine catches, 129 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 16 win last season, but sat out the first encounter this season due to injury.

* Philadelphia's offense has lacked sizzle of late but could receive a jolt with the expected returns of wideout Jordan Matthews (team-leading 57 receptions) and running back Ryan Mathews (seven rushing TDs). The former was able to practice on Thursday after missing his first game - college or pro - last week against the Bengals while the latter has been sidelined several weeks with an MCL sprain. A lack of potent running game has forced Wentz to average 45 pass attempts over his last six games - including 60 last week.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Redskins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Over is 11-1 in Redskins last 12 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 vs. NFC East.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-1, 43.5)

* If Siemian is unable to play, Paxton Lynch will make his second straight start Sunday. The 22-year-old rookie out of Memphis didn't exactly light it up against Jacksonville last week, completing 12-of-24 passes for 104 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Linebacker Von Miller leads the league with 12.5 sacks and needs 2.5 against Tennessee to tie Bruce Smith as the third-fastest to reach 75 in his career by doing so in his 85th game.

* DeMarco Murray, who is second in the league with 1,043 rushing yards, hopes to have a big game against Denver after using the bye week to heal his sore toe. "It's feeling a lot better," he told the team's website on Thursday. "It's good to get two practices in a row. (The bye) helped a lot. I think it helped a lot of people late in the season." Defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, who hasn't seen action since suffering a sprained foot on Nov. 27, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday but expects to play against the Broncos.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
* Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Titans last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 43.5)

* Following his benching after completing 5-of-12 passes for 81 yards, an interception and a 30.2 rating, it seems like Fitzpatrick has played his last game for the Jets. Now, Bowles looks to save his job as New York, which still ranks fourth in the NFL defending the rush (90.3 yards a game), appeared to have quit defensively in last week's nationally televised game. Andrew Luck threw four touchdown passes and the Colts ran up 421 yards before taking their foot off the gas early in the second half. New York is also battling a slew of injuries as center Nick Mangold is gone for the season, tackle Breno Giacomini and defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson missed practice time during the week and safety Calvin Pryor remains questionable with a concussion.

* Kaepernick, who began the season on the bench, is 0-8 since replacing Blaine Gabbert and didn't complete a pass until midway through the second quarter of last week's disaster. But, coach Chip Kelly, whose father died earlier in the week, opted to give Kaepernick the starting job again as the 49ers, like the Jets, ponder their future plans at quarterback. After recovering from a shoulder injury, running back Carlos Hyde has been solid in averaging more than 4.5 yards per carry in each of the past three games. Hyde leads the NFL's fourth-ranked rushing offense with 686 yards.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* 49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Jets last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 51)

* New Orleans remains one of the league’s most prolific offensive teams, but the running attack that had come to life in recent weeks dropped off in the loss to Detroit. Drew Brees continues to put up huge passing numbers but threw three interceptions and no touchdowns against the Lions. The Saints’ 31st-ranked pass defense had put together three straight solid efforts before being burned for 337 yards by Matthew Stafford and the Lions, although New Orleans continues to play tough against the run.

* Tampa Bay has turned around its season with a balanced offense and an opportunistic defense that has forced 11 turnovers during the four-game winning streak. The defense produced a touchdown and a game-saving interception in the end zone to preserve last week’s 28-21 win at San Diego. Quarterback Jameis Winston is enjoying a strong sophomore campaign but is running out of weapons as injuries have decimated his receiving corps and will need to rely heavily on star receiver Mike Evans and running back Doug Martin.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 6-0 in Saints last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Under is 12-3 in the last 15 meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (3, 44.5)

* Seattle has failed to score a touchdown in three of its road losses this season, including a 14-5 defeat at Tampa Bay in Week 12, but it rebounded with a season-high point total in a 40-7 thrashing of Carolina last week. Running back Thomas Rawls, in his third game back since missing two months with a broken leg, put a jolt in the ground game by rushing for 106 yards and a pair of touchdowns on only 15 carries. Another second-year player, wide receiver Tyler Lockett, broke off a 75-yard scoring run last week while adding five catches on 63 yards to provide a deep threat. Safety Earl Thomas suffered a broken leg last week, but the Seahawks are permitting a league-low 16.2 yards per game.

* Green Bay has one of the league's top run defenses at 92.9 yards per game, but it is vulnerable through the air (254.3) yards and is surrendering nine more points per game than Seattle at 25.2. A sagging ground game will feature a familiar face in Christine Michael, who was claimed off waivers by the Packers after he was cut loose by the Seahawks earlier this season. Despite the lack of a rushing attack, Rodgers has raised his level of play by throwing for seven touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three games while registering a passer rating of at least 108.9 in all three. No. 1 wideout Jordy Nelson, who missed the 2015 season with a torn ACL, hauled in his 10th touchdown reception in last week's win over Houston.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
* Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.
* Under is 13-3 in Packers last 16 games following a straight up win.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams (6.5, 45)

* Atlanta has the league’s top scoring offense, as quarterback Matt Ryan and receiver Julio Jones are having huge years. Ryan ranks second in the league in passing (3,813 yards) and third in touchdown tosses (27) while Jones leads the league in receiving yards (1,253). The Falcons also have the league’s worst pass defense, though, and have been terrible in the red zone - allowing touchdowns on 76.2 percent of drives inside the 20.

* Los Angeles’ offense ranks last in the league, and things have not improved since No. 1 overall draft pick Jared Goff took over at quarterback. After putting up respectable numbers in a loss to New Orleans two weeks ago, Goff went 14-of-32 for just 161 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions against the Patriots. The defense that carried the Rams early in the season has been exposed in the last two games, allowing a season-high 555 yards versus the Saints before giving up 402 last week.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
* Rams are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-0 in Falcons last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 10-2 in Rams last 12 games following a straight up loss.
* Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings.

**Udog** · 12-10-2016, 09:38 PM

NFL

Sunday, December 11

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NFL Sunday Night Football betting preview: Cowboys at Giants
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The Cowboys will look to avenge their lone loss of the season when they visit the Giants on Sunday night and are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+3.5, 47)

The Dallas Cowboys can celebrate numerous victories on Sunday night should they exit MetLife Stadium with a win over the New York Giants. The Cowboys can avenge a season-opening loss to their NFC East rival, extend their gaudy winning streak to 12 games and clinch the NFC East title - and possibly a first-round bye and home-field advantage.

Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have distinguished themselves since the former completed just 25 of 45 passes for 227 yards and the latter labeled his season-low 51-yard, 20-carry performance as "average" in a 20-19 loss to the Giants on Sept. 11. "It does seem like it was forever ago just because we've been through so much more as a team since then and we've grown so much," said Elliott, who tops the league in rushing yards (1,285) and is second in scrimmage yards (1,607). The Giants kept Elliott to a season-low 2.6 yards per carry in that tilt, but saw Le'Veon Bell become the first rusher to reach triple digits against them on Sunday following a 118-yard performance in a 24-14 setback to Pittsburgh. Odell Beckham Jr. did not snag any of Eli Manning's three touchdown passes in the opener, but has found the end zone eight times in his last eight outings.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys (-5.5) - Giants (-1) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -1.5

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the week as 3-point home dogs and that line rose half-point midweek to 3.5 The total hit the betting board at 47.5 and faded slightly to 47 late in the week. View complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: 'Cowboys will be out to avenge season opening loss to the Giants while New York looks to stay in the playoff chase. Big Blue stands 18-12 SUATS in Sunday night games while Dallas remains focused on maintaining home field advantage. Key will be the quarterback play. '

WEATHER REPORT: The playing conditions for MetLife Stadium won’t be great, with a bit of snow in the evening, followed by rain and temperatures in the low 30’s.

INJURIES:

Cowboys - CB Orlando Scandrick (questionable, foot), DE Jack Crawford (questionable, foot), DE Demarcus Lawrence (questionable, back), T Tyron Smith (questionable, back), OL Chaz Green (questionable, foot), LB Justin Durant (questionable, hamstring), S J.J. Wilcox (questionable, leg), DE Randy Gregory (out indefinitely, suspension)

Giants - TE Larry Donnell (questionable, concussion), WR Dwayne Harris (questionable, ankle), G Justin Pugh (questionable, knee), S Nat Berhe (questionable, concussion), LB Mark Herzlich (questionable, concussion), DE Owa Odighizuma (questionable, knee), CB Coty Sensabaugh (questionable, ribs), DT Johnathan Hankins (questionable, thigh), DE Jason Pierre-Paul (out for season, hernia), RB Shane Vereen (questionable, tricep)

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS, 5-7 O/U): Dez Bryant limped out of the gate with just one catch for eight yards in the first meeting with the Giants, but the mercurial wideout has gained chemistry with Prescott and reeled in four touchdowns in his last four contests. Veteran tight end Jason Witten acquitted himself well in the opener with nine receptions for 66 yards, but saw his franchise-record games streak with a catch end at 130 in a 17-15 victory over Minnesota last week. Witten will look to exploit a Giants defense that has struggled versus tight ends this season, with the club allowing 63 receptions and 793 yards with three touchdowns.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (8-4 SU, 6-5–1 ATS, 3-9 O/U): Containing Elliott became an even harder chore for New York after news broke that veteran Jason Pierre-Paul will be sidelined at least six weeks following sports hernia surgery. Pierre-Paul registered six tackles and two quarterback hurries in the first meeting with Dallas, although the Giants were unable to register a sack on Prescott. Fellow defensive end Olivier Vernon (team-leading eight sacks) has collected one in six straight and a multiple total in three consecutive contests. Romeo Okwara, Owa Odighizuwa and Kerry Wynn are expected to take on larger roles in Pierre-Paul's absence for the Giants.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 9-2 in Cowboys last 11 road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games overall.
* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 59 percent of the picking public is grabbing the road favorite Cowboys and the same percentage are grabbing the Over.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thursday, December 8 - Monday, December 12)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thursday, December 8 - Monday, December 12)

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