NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 24 - Monday, November 28)

[Udog]

Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Patriots are 7.5-point favorites @ the Jets, but are 0-5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with New York.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (5.5, 42)

* The Titans’ offense has made one of the league’s biggest turnarounds from a season ago behind a potent ground attack featuring Murray and Marcus Mariota. The running quarterback also has blossomed as a passer in his second professional season, passing for 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions - with multiple scoring tosses in a franchise-record seven consecutive games. The Titans’ defense should have success if it can stop the run and keep pressure on Barkley with a strong pass rush led by linebackers Brian Orakpo (nine sacks) and Derrick Morgan (eight).

* Chicago’s injury woes continue to mount, as Cutler will be joined on the sideline by guard Kyle Long (ankle) while receiver Alshon Jeffery serves the second game of a four-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs. The Bears’ linebacking corps also is thin, with rookie Leonard Floyd suffering from a concussion and leading tackler Jerrell Freeman beginning his own four-game suspension for PEDs. That’s bad news for a team that relies on its defense to keep it in games and ranks 31st in the league in scoring.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened the week as 2-point home dogs and that line has been growing all week, as of Saturday the line has grown to 5.5. The total opened 44.5 and has been bet down to 41.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 45)

* Chad Henne received more work in practice for the Jaguars during the week and would get the start should Bortles not be available. The Jaguars lost veteran tight end Marcedes Lewis to a season-ending calf injury against the Lions and running back T.J. Yeldon is questionable with an ankle injury for Jacksonville, which has lost five straight games. The Jaguars limited Detroit to just 14 yards on the ground last week but lost their third straight road game, two of wthem by one possession.

* Should McCoy not go, Mike Gillislie (326 yards, 4 TDs) would get the start and the offense could be further hindered by the absence of their top two receivers. Watkins is available to come off the injured reserve list this week after undergoing foot surgery and was cleared to practice Wednesday while Woods, who leads the Bills this season with 42 catches for 493 yards, is unlikely to play Sunday after suffering a sprained knee last week on a controversial hit by Vontaze Burfict. After going 0-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less this season, Buffalo squeezed by Cincinnati last week to snap its three-game losing streak but the victory was clearly aided by the Bengals' early loss of wide receiver A.J. Green.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened the week as 7-point home favorites against the Jags and that number quickly rose half point to 7.5 and has held all week. The total opened at 45.5 and faded during the week as low as 44, before rebounding to 45. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Jaguars last 5 vs. AFC.
* Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 40.5)

* Cincinnati already had a void in their receiving corps following the offseason departures of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu, but there is no way to replace Green, who had racked up 66 receptions for for 964 yards and fourth touchdowns through the first nine games. Rookie Tyler Boyd, who matched his season high with six catches last week, and journeyman Brandon LaFell will start and, along with tight end Tyler Eifert, serve as quarterback Andy Dalton's top targets. Bernard's loss is another huge blow, leaving Jeremy Hill to handle the rushing duties and taking away the prime pass-catching threat from the backfield. Cincinnati's defense is vulnerable to the run, permitting 123.4 yards per game.

* Veteran Steve Smith Sr., the oldest wideout in the league, continues to turn back the clock after becoming the 14th receiver in league history to reach 1,000 career receptions. Smith, who planned to retire a year ago before sustaining a season-ending injury, hit the milestone with eight catches for 99 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss. Baltimore needs to mount a consistent running attack with Terrance West and rookie Kenneth Dixon - who had eight and six carries, respectively, in Dallas - to keep the onus off Joe Flacco, who has made at least 40 pass attempts in seven of his last nine games. The Ravens are No. 2 in the league with 295.1 yards allowed per game.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened this AFC North battle as 3.5-point home favorites and that number jumped as high as 4.5, before fading back to 3.5 late in the week. As of Saturday the number has settled at 4. The total opened at 41.5 and has been bet down to 40. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Ravens are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC North.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 vs. AFC North.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 50.5)

* Arizona began the season in a 1-3 hole and can't quite seem to dig its way out as mistakes continue to pile up. "Just taking turns making mistakes, and that's frustrating," Fitzgerald told reporters. "Six games left in the regular season at this point and we have no room for error moving forward. None." Plenty of those mistakes are coming from quarterback Carson Palmer, who recorded five of his 10 interceptions in the last three games and managed a season-low 198 passing yards in a 30-24 loss at Minnesota last week.

* Matt Ryan is second in the NFL in passing yards (3,247) and has thrown for 24 touchdowns with five interceptions in the best season of his strong career. Ryan is in line to get more help from the running game with the return of Tevin Coleman, who sat out the last three games with a hamstring injury but looked fast at practice this week. "That's what we were checking to see with Tevin," coach Dan Quinn told reporters. "Would he have the speed to get in and out of his breaks that make him such a unique player? So we saw the speed with him."

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened the week as 4-point home favorites and that number has grown two point to 6 late in the week. The total opened at 50.5 and has risen half point to 51. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Falcons last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (7, 44)

* Jason Pierre-Paul was one of four players who did not participate in practice on Wednesday. The veteran defensive end, who registered 2 1/2 sacks in the win over the Bears, is dealing with a sore knee. Odell Beckham Jr. has made all of his team-leading six touchdown catches over the last six games and has recorded a league-high 31 since 2014.

* Robert Griffin III, who hasn't played since breaking a bone in his shoulder in the season opener against Philadelphia, practiced Wednesday after being designated for return from injured reserve. The 26-year-old Griffin, who has yet to be cleared for contact, will remain on IR for the rest of the season if Cleveland does not activate him within 21 days. Rookie Kevin Hogan, who has completed 14-of-26 passes for 104 yards with two interceptions in three games this season, will serve as McCown's backup on Sunday.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened the week as 7-point road favorites against the winless Browns and were briefly faded down to 6.5 midweek before rising back to 7. The total opened at 44.5 and inched down half point to 44. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Browns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 road games.
* Under is 8-1 in Browns last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (1, 46.5)

* Philip Rivers had a roller-coaster afternoon against Miami, as he threw three touchdown passes but was intercepted four times. The trio of scoring tosses gave him 301 for his career, moving him past John Elway for eighth place on the all-time list, while the four picks came within a span of 13 minutes in the fourth quarter. Ronnie Hillman, who led Denver in rushing last season with a career-high 863 yards but was released in September, was claimed off waivers from Minnesota after gaining 50 yards on 18 carries in five games with the Vikings.

* All signs point to a victory for Houston, as the club has won each of its five home games thus far this season while Brock Osweiler is 2-0 lifetime as a starter against San Diego. Tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz has made a touchdown catch in each of his last three home games while rookie wideout Braxton Miller made his first TD reception in last week's loss. Jadeveon Clowney leads all defensive ends and is second overall in the league with 12 tackles for loss.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Texans are 1-point favorites at home. The total opened 47 and was dropped to 46 and held that number the remainder of the week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
* Texans are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 games on grass.
* Over is 4-1 in Texans last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-7.5, 44.5)

* San Francisco already owns the worst defense in the league, giving up 31.3 points and 431.1 yards per game, and continues to be ravaged by season-ending injuries. The latest was to safety Eric Reid, who suffered a biceps tear in last week's loss to New England to join linebacker NaVorro Bowman - the NFL's leading tackler last season - and 2015 first-round draft pick Arik Armstead on the shelf. While speedster Torrey Smith missed his first career game last week, tight end Vance McDonald continues to emerge as one of Colin Kaepernick's trusted receivers with six targets in each of the last four games. Running back Carlos Hyde is coming off one of his best games of the season with 86 yards on 19 carries.

* With the 49ers yielding 179.5 rushing yards per game, logic dictates that Miami feature a heavy dose of Jay Ajayi, who had back-to-back 200-yard games last month and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. However, the Dolphins could be without three starters along the offensive line as left tackle Branden Albert, first-round draft pick Laremy Tunsil and center Mike Pouncey all are dealing with injuries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and the offense were dreadful for most of last week's victory with nine punts and an interception on the first 10 possessions before he connected on a pair of late TD passes to wideouts Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker. Miami's run defense ranks 30th at 126.1 yards per game.

LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened as 7.5-home favorites and that has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and been faded down to one full point to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games following a ATS win.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-7, 45.5)

* Los Angeles started Goff's debut fairly well last week, racing out to a 10-0 lead, but Goff played little part in it. Struggling back Todd Gurley gave the Rams a 7-0 lead with a 24-yard scoring run but he finished with just 76 yards on 20 carries after a strong start and he has not topped 85 yards in a game all season. Goff said he thought things went relatively well in his debut. "Felt good," he said. "We're obviously disappointed with the result there at the end and how things turned out, and how we felt through the whole game and how in control we were."

* Brees has thrown for 300 yards four times on the season and surpassed 400 yards twice to lead the league with 3,277 yards passing and 26 touchdowns. The Saints lost running back Mark Ingram to a head injury in the third quarter and their leading rusher with 575 yards and two touchdowns on the ground remains in concussion protocol. Ranked last in the league the past two seasons, New Orleans' defense has improved steadily this year and it ranks a respectable 18th in the NFL since Week 4, allowing 354.7 yards a game, and it is No. 1 in red-zone defense since Week 7.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Saints as 7-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 7.5 and has held firm all week. The total opened at 45.5 and remains fine with bettors having not moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 10-1 in Rams last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games overall.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6, 45)

* Russell Wilson battled injuries in October and went three straight games without a touchdown - passing or rushing - to close out the month. Since the calendar turned, Wilson returned to health and has recorded six passing TDs without an interception in his last three games while adding rushing and receiving scores. "I think the quick bursts that he showed when he had to make the decision was really the confidence he demonstrated he's got," coach Pete Carroll told reporters in regard to Wilson's health. "I couldn't be more fired up about that. That's when we're playing ball the way we know how to play. It's a big factor for us."

* Winston steadily is making his way into the conversation about elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and he stretched his streak to 26 straight games to begin his career with at least one rushing or passing TD when he hit rookie tight end Alan Cross with a fourth-quarter TD pass in last week's 19-17 win at Kansas City. "Jameis was out of sight today," coach Dirk Koetter told reporters after the triumph. "That's as good of quarterback play of however many years I've been in the league now. Jameis - he was awesome all day. Jameis played a great game." Winston is forming a strong connection with wide receiver Mike Evans, who is third in the NFL with 916 receiving yards and second with eight TD catches.

LINE HISTORY: The lined with the Seahawks 5-point road favorites and that line has expanded to 6. The total opened at 44.5 and has inched up to 45 on Monday and remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 games in November.
* Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 home games.* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders (-3, 49.5)

* Carolina's defense took a major hit in last week's victory as linebacker Luke Kuechly entered the league's concussion protocol while cornerback Leonard Johnson (chest) and defensive end Mario Addison (foot) also exited with injuries. Kuechly recorded 14 tackles against the Saints and has registered a league-high 693 since 2012. Center Ryan Kalil (shoulder) was a casualty on the offensive line and, along with Addison, is questionable to face Oakland.

* Two key members of the offense were not full participants in Wednesday's practice as receiver Michael Crabtree and running back Latavius Murray were limited due to ankle injuries. Carr threw his first interception since Oct. 16 on the first play of the second half on Monday, ending his streak of 170 consecutive passes without a pick. The third-year quarterback has been outstanding in his last three meetings with teams from the NFC South, throwing for 1,131 yards with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 111.6 rating.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened up as 3.5-home favorites and the was quickly driven down to 3 and that number has held since Wednesday. The total opened a 48 and was up to 50, before fading back to 49.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 4-0 in Raiders last 4 games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (7.5, 45.5)

* Star tight end Rob Gronkowski was limited in practice Wednesday after missing last week's win over the 49ers with a chest injury, but Brady threw scoring passes to four different receivers. Among them was rookie Malcolm Mitchell, a fourth-round draft pick out of Georgia who had four receptions for 98 yards to surpass his total yardage from his first six career games combined. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 124 yards on 19 carries -his fourth 100-yard performance of the season - while Dion Lewis rushed for 23 yards on five carries and added three catches in his season debut. New England registered five sacks a week ago, including one by newcomer Kyle Van Noy.

* Star tight end Rob Gronkowski was limited in practice Wednesday after missing last week's win over the 49ers with a chest injury, but Brady threw scoring passes to four different receivers. Among them was rookie Malcolm Mitchell, a fourth-round draft pick out of Georgia who had four receptions for 98 yards to surpass his total yardage from his first six career games combined. Running back LeGarrette Blount ran for 124 yards on 19 carries -his fourth 100-yard performance of the season - while Dion Lewis rushed for 23 yards on five carries and added three catches in his season debut. New England registered five sacks a week ago, including one by newcomer Kyle Van Noy.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened the week as 8.5-road favorites in this AFC East battle and that number faded as low as 7, before settling at 7.5. The total opened at 47 and has been inching down all week to 45.5 as of Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings.
* Patriots are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 12

The Titans' robust rush attack has been as advertised, but the team also ranks ninth in passing yards.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7.5, 45.5)

Bills' rag-tag receiving corps vs. Jaguars' suffocating secondary

The Bills are a healthy favorite in this Week 12 encounter, and with good reason: Buffalo has forged its way to a .500 record despite dealing with major injury woes, particularly within its receiving corps. Couple that with a Jacksonville offense that has bumbled its way to a likely high draft next spring, and it's easy to see why the Bills are expected to win comfortably. But the Jaguars have a significant advantage in one area that could result in this game being closer than expected.

With Sammy Watkins returning to practice but still a major question mark to suit up this week, quarterback Tyrod Taylor is left with middling options Robert Woods, Marqise Goodwin and recently resurrected Percy Harvin. Woods (75.8) is the only one of the three with a decent Pro Football Focus Grade - and even if you throw in tight end Charles Clay (63.1), there isn't much room for optimism when it comes to the Buffalo passing game.

Things look even worse when you consider the potency of the Jacksonville pass defense, which has been the team's biggest strength through 10 mostly terrible games. Two of the team's three primary cornerbacks boast grades above 80, while linebackers Telvin Smith (79.5) and Paul Posluszny (85.0) have also been sensational. Add FS Tashaun Gipson (76.6) and SS Jonathan Cyprien (86.1) into the equation, and it could be a long, challenging day for Taylor and the Bills' receiving corps.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Tyrod Taylor


New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (+7, 44.5)

Giants' improved pass rush vs. Browns' non-existent protection

The Giants spent tens of millions of dollars in the offseason looking to improve a defense that underwhelmed significantly last season. And after New York opened the season with one of the worst pash-rushing units in the league, fans were understandably concerned. But the Giants have looked impressive at getting to the quarterback over the last month-plus, and should be able to continue their hot streak against the Browns' "pass protection".

The New York secondary has been solid at defending the pass; the Giants are one of only eight teams entering Week 12 with double-digit interceptions. But it has been its ability to harass the quarterback that has played a major role in the team reeling off five consecutive victories. New York has racked up 14 of its 18 sacks over the course of the winning streak, recording multiple sacks in all five games. And while the Giants still have the worst road sack rate in the NFL, that should change this week.

In addition to being the only remaining winless team in the league, the Browns rank near the bottom of the NFL in too many categories to count. Among them, Cleveland has the worst sack rate at 8.7 percent; Indianapolis is the only other team to exceed eight percent. That mark climbs to an absurd 13.9 percent over the last three games - and that downward trend, combined with the Giants' vastly improved pass rush, bodes very poorly for whoever starts under center on Sunday.

Daily fantasy watch: Giants D/ST


Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (+3.5, 43)

Titans' elite offensive line vs. Bears' underwhelming defense

By now, you're well aware of how the Tennessee Titans have shamed all of the analysts who suggested in the preseason that the team's only way of producing offense would be through its "exotic smashmouth" strategy. Yes, the Titans' robust rush attack has been as advertised, but the team also ranks ninth in passing yards - a credit to quarterback Marcus Mariota, sure, but also to one of the best and most underrated offensive lines in football.

The Tennessee O-line boasts an impressive group of players that have performed at a high level for most of the season. Four of the five starting linemen boast Pro Football Focus ratings of 82 or higher, led by LT Taylor Lewan (87.3) and rookie R Jack Conklin (86.2). Their efforts have gone a long way in keeping Mariota upright; he has been sacked just 18 times this season, the seventh-lowest total in the league. TE Delanie Walker (81.8) has also been sensational in pass protection.

The Bears' defense has been better than advertised, but is still likely to be overmatched this weekend. Chicago has hauled in just five interceptions and, while ranking an admirable 10th in sacks (24), faces serious mismatches at both outside linebacker positions and at two of the three cornerback slots. Add in a pitiful 43.9 PFF grade for starting RE Jonathan Bullard, and Mariota should once again have clean pockets and plenty of time to pick the opposing defense apart.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Marcus Mariota


Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 45)

Seahawks ToP problems vs. Buccaneers' brilliant ball control

The Seahawks are one of the few NFC teams that has looked mostly good this season, a testament to its perpetually solid defense and in-season improvements - both from a health and talent perspective - from QB Russell Wilson. But while the Seahawks go into their Week 12 showdown with the Buccaneers as a healthy favorite, Tampa Bay has been one of the better clock control teams in the league - something Seattle certainly can't say.

The Buccaneers enter Sunday ranked fifth in the NFL in average time of possession at 31:26, a rate that climbs to 32:59 over the previous three games. And as with the majority of teams who boast strong ToP numbers, Tampa Bay has done it by extending drives better than most of the league. The Buccaneers are tied for seventh in average first downs per game (22.3), and their third-down conversion percentage (45.07) is also good for seventh overall.

The Seahawks aren't that close in any of the three categories listed above. Seattle ranks 26th in the league at 28:30 per game, a rate that dips to 26:20 over the previous three games. The Seahawks' average first downs per contest (18.5, T-27th) and third-down conversion rate (37.3 percent, 21st) also pale in comparison. All that extra possession time for Tampa Bay could mean a much closer game - or even a Buccaneers victory.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Mike Evans

[Udog]

NFL Underdogs: Week 12 pointspread picks and predictions

By ANDREW CALEY

Andrew Caley is thankful for a chance to redeem himself after a 0-for Week 11, and his first play is the underdog Cardinals.

If you’re been reading this column this season, you know by now I’m a proud Canadian, which definitely has its perks.

This is one of those weeks with one of those perks because it is American Thanksgiving. Yes, I am thankful for American Thanksgiving.

For those who don’t know, Canadian Thanksgiving is the second Monday of October instead of the fourth Thursday in November and while I enjoy being with family and friends more than anything on this holiday, our turkey day doesn’t revolve around the NFL like it does for those of you state side. Luckily for me, my family is a football family and we now celebrate both.

First of all, what’s not to love about a Thursday in November with 12 straight hours of NFL football? Not to bash the CFL (the Grey Cup is tomorrow, go RedBlacks), but it’s just not the same. We play touch football when we’re off work or done school and the majority of the family participates in a surprisingly competitive fantasy football league, so there's plenty of yelling at the television no matter who's playing.

So in honor of our love for the great American game, my family started having American Thanksgiving feasts to go along with it. We don't half-ass it either. It's turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes and pie. The whole shebang. What’s better than Thanksgiving in October? Thanksgiving in October and November. That’s what.

I’m also thankful for having the type of job I do. One that, holiday or not, I get to be doing something I love, watching and writing about football. I'm thankful I get to write this column and I’m thankful I get to redeem myself after a pitiful 0-3 ATS Week 11.

So with it being a Thanksgiving themed week, it seems appropriate to start off this week’s underdog column talking about a bird, a red bird, to be precise.

I am still clinging on to hope the Arizona Cardinals will at some point look like the team they've been for the past two seasons. There's just too much talent at the skill positions and the defense can still be dominant.

Carson Palmer has regressed this season, completing just 62.1 percent of his passes with just 13 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. But if he will ever break out it should be this week. He gets to go up against an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that ranks dead last, giving up 283 yards per game.

But what I really believe in is the Cardinals defense. They will have their hands full with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the Falcons third-ranked offense, but it’s a task this defense can handle. They rank first in total and passing defense and get Tyrann Mathieu back this week.

Six-points are just too many for a defense this good.

Pick: Cardinals +6


San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins

On paper, bettors should be thankful to back the Dolphins in this matchup. Miami just needs to feed the ball to Jay Ajayi against the league’s worst rush defense and they’ll easily cover.

But that won’t be the case.

The Dolphins head into this game with a make-shift offensive line. Miami will be without starting center Mike Pouncey (out long-term, hip) and will likely will be without left tackle Branden Albert (wrist surgery last week) and Laremy Tunsil (shoulder). They ended up with Sam Young playing left tackle last week, and he was signed off the street a little more than a month ago.

A fully healthy Carlos Hyde has a great matchup against a Dolphins run defense that allows the third most rushing yards per game this season.

Additionally, Colin Kaepernick seems to be finding his groove, throwing for five touchdowns and just one interception in the last three games. He has also rushed for 260 yards at a clip of 7.2 yards per clip and a touchdown since becoming the Niners' starter once again.

Pick: 49ers +7.5


Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Denver Broncos

This game could go a long way in determining the champion of the AFC West and both the Chiefs and Broncos have a lot of the same issues.

Their passing offenses are less than inspiring and both are dealing with running back injuries. We all know by now how good the Broncos’ defense is, but the Chiefs are no joke either.

While they rank 25th in total yards allowed, they clamp down in the red zone and rank eighth in points per game, allowing just 18.9. Plus, now that Justin Houston is back, the Chiefs defense has a completely different attitude.

Simply put, I think this game is won by a late field goal.

Pick: Chiefs +3.5


Last Week: 0-3 ATS
Season: 18-14-1 ATS (56 percent)

[Udog]

NFL Week 12 lines that make you go hmmm...

The Seahawks opened as low as -4.5 on the road in Tampa Bay. That's just one of the lines making our Las Vegas oddsmaker go "hmmm..." in Week 12.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 41)

We’re not quite sure why the line is so low. We like the home favorites and recommend to take this one as early as you can. I made this line closer to -6 to -6.5, largely based on two factors.

First, the Bengals are playing awful football right now, (1-4 on the road). And second, they’re suffering a slew of injuries that will make this highly improbable that they can handle a physical team like the Ravens.

I also think Baltimore will have something to prove after its loss to Dallas this past weekend. Between these two teams, who both suffered losses in week 11, it seems more likely that Baltimore will bounce back with a nice game than an undermanned and underperforming Cincinnati team suddenly finding success on the road.

Despite Cincinnati’s woes, it is just one game in the loss column behind first place Baltimore. We fully expect Baltimore to know the significance of this game and follow the pattern of beating its divisional foe, as the Ravens have done in their past two home games. This is a classic example of sticking with the winners and playing against the losers. Get his one early and enjoy the leftover turkey.

Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5, 44.5)

We always like to ride a good streak and we have a good one with Seattle. This line opened offshore at -4.5 and doesn’t appear it will stop at its current level. We definitely recommend to take this as early as you can expect this line to rise come Sunday.

Tampa Bay surprised against Kansas City this past week but we are banking that its home record speaks for itself. Despite their first win against lowly Chicago, the Bucs have suffered losses with margins of five, 20, six and 15 at home to lesser teams than Seattle. Their two wins the past two weeks probably caused the oddsmakers to push a lower number from the get-go, but wise money came quick on the road favorites and it will keep coming through Sunday.

The Seahawks are 6-1-1 in their past eight games and are rolling on offense (88 points in their last three). They’ll aim to be the physical force defensively that they’re best known for. There are only four teams in the NFC who have given up more points than Tampa Bay and we expect Seattle to exploit that come game time. Take the road favorite, take them early and eat something else besides turkey now that the weekend is almost over.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 27

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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Kansas City at Denver
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The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between the Chiefs and Broncos. Kansas City is currently a 3.5-point road pup for their Sunday Night Football showdown.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5, 39.5)

The Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up for what figures to be an exciting race for the AFC West title, and their two head-to-head matchups over the next six weeks will go a long way toward determining the division champion. The Broncos get the first crack at hosting their rivals when the Chiefs visit the Mile High City on Sunday night.

There’s plenty at stake for both teams, who are one game behind Oakland in the division and tied for the AFC’s two wild-card spots, and the atmosphere figures to be even more electric under the lights of prime time. "I don't think you could make it any bigger or more intense than it already is," Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith told reporters. "The way the division has gone to this point, it's already pretty tight. This is our first crack at these guys, and they're the defending Super Bowl champions. We've been in a lot of battles with these guys over the years." The Broncos have dominated their rivals in recent years, winning seven of the last eight meetings, but the Chiefs ended a long skid in the series with a 29-13 triumph in the final matchup last season. While Denver should be healthy coming off its bye week, Kansas City is banged-up – especially on defense, with a number of key players nursing injuries that could keep them off the field Sunday.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened the week as 3.5-point home favorites over their division rivals from Kansas City. The line briefly dropped half a point to 3, but quickly returned to 3.5 and has remained. The total opened at 39.5 and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: This game was flexed into the Sunday night TV spot and the Patriots/Jets game was removed, and for good reason. This is a critical game in the AFC West division as both teams enter this week trailing Oakland by one game for first place in the division. The road team won both meetings last seasonand is now 4-1 SU/ATS in the past five head-to-head battles. The Chiefs are 8-2 to the Under this season, but that has been factored in by the oddsmakers as this is the lowest Over/Under line in any game this week.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We have had this game at Broncos -3.5 favs at home all week and haven’t had to move off that number as we are seeing solid two way action, with the Chiefs getting just under 60 percent of the action to cover the +3.5. We have however moved the total from 40 to 39.5 as we are long on UNDER action with over 70 percent."

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Sports Authority Field at Mile High is clear skies with temperatures in the high 30’s at kickoff and winds out of the west at 11 mph.

INJURY REPORT:

Kansas City - RB Charcandrick West (probable, concussion), DB Marcus Peters (questionable, hip), DB Steven Nelson (questionable, neck), LB Derrick Johnson (questionable, achilles), Dontari Poe (questionable, back), DL Kendall Reyes (questionable, knee), LB Tamba Hali (questionable, knee), DL Jaye Howard (questionable, hip), WR Tyreek Hill (questionable, knee), WR Jeremy Maclin (out, groin), LB Dee Ford (out, hamstring)

Denver - DE Derek Wolfe (probable, elbow)

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 2-8 O/U): Kansas City’s offense has been pedestrian, thanks in large part to a rash of injuries, and could be without two top receivers with Jeremy Maclin (doubtful, groin) and rookie Tyreek Hill (questionable, knee) hurting. If the Chiefs are going to have success against Denver’s stout defense, though, it likely will have to be on the ground with Spencer Ware, who got off to a great start to the season but has not scored a touchdown in the last three games. The Chiefs’ defense also is ailing with linebackers Derrick Johnson (Achilles) and Tamba Hali (knee) and nose tackle Dontari Poe (back) listed as questionable, although top cornerback Marcus Peters (hip) is likely to return after missing last week’s 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 5-5 O/U): Denver leans on one of the best defenses in the league and ranks second in the NFL with 20 takeaways, including four in a 25-23 win at New Orleans prior to the bye week. The strong defense helps make up for a lackluster offense that has struggled to run the ball consistently and now is relying on rookie Devontae Booker to carry the load in the backfield. First-year starting quarterback Trevor Siemian has not put up impressive numbers but does enough to keep the Broncos in games and has a pair of dangerous targets in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, who have enjoyed great success against the Chiefs.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Chiefs last 7 games following a bye week.
* Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 3-0-2 in the last 5 meetings in Denver.

CONSENSUS: The home team is getting 58 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 54 percent of the total action.


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[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 12 of the Westgate Super Contest

— Tennessee Titans, -4.5 (514)

— Atlanta Falcons, -4 (480)

— Washington Redskins +7 (405)— W

— Baltimore Ravens -4 (387)

— Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (380)

— Oakland Raiders -3 (379)

Season record: 23-43-2

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 28

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Monday Night Football betting preview: Packers at Eagles
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The Eagles have dropped five of seven since No. 2 overall draft pick Wentz led them to a 3-0 start, slipping into last place in the NFC East.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 47.5)

The early-season hype surrounding rookie Carson Wentz has quieted down, but the whispers are growing louder around two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers' inability to stop his team's maddening slump. Both quarterbacks will be trying to keep their teams in the playoff chase when Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles host Rodgers and the sliding Green Bay Packers on Monday night.

The Eagles have dropped five of seven since No. 2 overall draft pick Wentz led them to a 3-0 start, slipping into last place in the NFC East. Still, the Eagles are right on the heels of division rival Washington (6-4-1) for the final playoff spot in the conference and also own a 4-0 record at home, including victories over Atlanta and Minnesota in their last two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Packers are in the midst of a spectacular four-game slide during which they have allowed a staggering 153 points, but Rodgers is maintaining a positive outlook. "I feel like we can run the table, I really do," Rodgers said. "You just feel like it just takes one (win). We get one under our belts, things might start rolling for us and we can run the table."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 3.5-point home favorites and, despite a brief rise to -4, the spread currently sits on the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 48, dropped a full point to 47 and currently sits at 47.5. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Philadelphia is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-40's for kickoff on Monday evening - not too bad for late November in Philly. There will be a light breeze (3-4 mph) that will not be a factor.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams are struggling after decent starts this season. Green Bay has gone just 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) after a 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) start, while Philadelphia has gone just 2-5 SU/ATS after their 3-0 SU/ATS start. Both teams are struggling to throw the ball as the Packers are averaging only 6.3 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow 6.7 ypp), while the Eagles average just 6.2 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 6.8 ypp)."

INJURY REPORT:

Packers - LB J. Ryan (Probable, ankle), CB D. Randall (Questionable, groin), LB K. Fackrell (Questionable, hamstring), C J. Tretter (Questionable, knee), G T. Lang (Questionable, ankle), T D. Barclay (Questionable, shoulder), S K. Bice (Questionable, back), LB B. Martinez (Out, knee), CB D. Goodson (Out, knee), CB M. Dorleant (Questionable, undisclosed), CB S. Shields (I-R, concussion), RB E. Lacy (I-R, ankle), RB D. Jackson (I-R, knee), RB J. Crockett (I-R, shoulder).

Eagles - CB L. McKelvin (Probable, concussion), DE C. Barwin (Probable, undisclosed), RB D. Sproles (Probable, ribs), DE S. Means (Questionable, illness), DT T. Hart (Questionable, ankle), S T. Brooks (Questionable, hamstring), DT F. Cox (Questionable, undisclosed), RB R. Matthews (Out, knee), T H. Vaitai (Out, knee), T L. Johnson (Elig Week 16, suspension), CB R. Brooks (I-R, quadricep), LB J. Walker (I-R, knee), DE A. McCalister (I-R, calf).

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Following narrow losses to Atlanta and Indianapolis by a combined six points, Green Bay's defense has been carved up for 89 points by Tennessee and Washington in the first two stops of its three-game road trip. With the Packers having failed to force a turnover in three of the last four defeats, defensive coordinator Dom Capers told reporters: "You just keep working at it. ... We know how to do it, we’ve done it for quite a while around here, but we’re not getting it done right now." Green Bay is hopeful that Christine Michael, claimed off waivers from Seattle, will be ready to bolster a sagging running game with a full week of practice. Rodgers continues to put up solid numbers with 15 TD passes and three interceptions in his last five games.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U): It's hardly a surprise that Wentz has been unable to sustain his hot start, given the dearth of playmakers at wide receiver and a spotty running game. Wentz threw seven touchdown passes against one interception in his first four games, but those numbers have changed with four scoring tosses and six picks in the last six contests. Wentz has thrown for more than 238 yards just once in his last seven games, with wideout Jordan Matthews his favorite target with 53 receptions and three touchdowns. Ryan Mathews rushed for a season-high 109 yards and two touchdowns in a win over Atlanta on Nov. 13, but he injured his knee in last week's loss at Seattle and is not expected to play. Philadelphia has surrendered only 38 points in its four home games.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
* Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Eagles last 9 games in Week 12.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Philadelphia Eagles are picking up 58 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 76 percent of the Over/Under wagers.


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[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 12 of the Westgate Super Contest

— Tennessee Titans, -4.5 (514)- W

— Atlanta Falcons, -4 (480)- W

— Washington Redskins +7 (405)- W

— Baltimore Ravens -4 (387)- W

— Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (380)- W

— Oakland Raiders -3 (379)- W

Season record: 28-43-2

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Chargers 21, Texans 13— First home loss for Texans; Chargers are now 2-4 on road. Houston turned ball over four times (-3); teams who were -2 or worse in turnovers this week are 0-5 this week, 7-59 for the season.

Titans 27, Bears 21— Tennessee is 6-6 and heads into its bye week half a game behind the Texans in a lame AFC South. Barkley threw for 316 yards in his first NFL start, converted 9-17 on third down, but also threw two picks and Bears fell to 2-9. Over is 8-1 in Titans’ last nine games.

Bills 28, Jaguars 21— Jax has now lost six games in a row, last four all by 7 or less points. Bills are 6-5 but winning a Wild Card in AFC is an uphill climb. Over is 8-2 in last ten Buffalo games. I’m guessing Jaguars are changing coaches after the season; curious to see if they hire Tom Coughlin, who is approaching 70 but would be better than some guys who have HC jobs.

Ravens 19, Bengals 14— Justin Tucker nailed three 50+-yard FG’s, all in the first half. Cincy is 1-5-1 in its last seven games, losing last five true road games; I am not a fan of promoting from within when hiring coordinators, which Cincinnati has done a lot recently, losing three coordinators to HC jobs the last three years. Go out and find new blood, new ideas. Bengals’ last four games (0-3-1) were decided by a total of 7 points. Under is 6-1 in last seven Baltimore games.

Falcons 38, Cardinals 19— Hope coach Arians is alright after a medical scare earlier in week; his team isn’t alright, losing three of last four games. Arizona was outscored 41-16 in second half of last three games. Falcons scored five TDs on nine drives, with two TD drives of less than 50 yards. Over is 9-2 in Atlanta games this season.

Dolphins 31, 49ers 24— Miami won its sixth game in row, will be tied for second Wild Card with loser of KC-Denver game. Dolphins led 31-14 with 8:00 left but Kaepernick led comeback which fell a couple yards short as time expired. 49ers have lost ten games in a row, with over 7-3 in those games. Miami is +10 in turnovers during its winning streak.

Saints 49, Rams 21— This game was personal between Sean Payton/Gregg Williams, who won a Super Bowl together in New Orleans. Saints threw a pass with 2:30 left, up 49-21. They’ll be another day for that stuff. NFC West underdogs are 4-11 vs spread outside their division this season.

Jeff Fisher is in his fifth year coaching the Rams: he makes $7M a year. His teams have been 7-8-1/7-9/6-10/7-9 and now this 4-7 disaster (they still have games at both New England/Seattle). If I was paying someone $7M a year to coach, I’d expect better results and most of all, I wouldn’t be very freakin’ happy when my team quit on the field, the way the Rams did in this game.

Giants 27, Browns 13— Cleveland is now 1-4-1 as a home underdog; they’ve been outscored 83-24 in second half of their last five games. Giants won their last six games, getting a defensive TD from Pierre-Paul to put game out of reach. If season ended today, Giants would host Washington in NFC Wild Card game. Good news for Cleveland; next week is their bye.

Buccaneers 14, Seahawks 5— Just second 14-5 game in NFL history; 49ers-Falcons played one in 1984. Bucs had six sacks, held Seattle to 1-11 on third down- they’ve won three games in a row, allowing total of 32 points. This is same Tampa defense that gave up 37 points to the Rams in Week 3. Everyone in NFC West lost today.

Raiders 37, Panthers 32— Oakland has won/covered five games in a row; Derek Carr had a dislocated pinky in third quarter, when Carolina had ball four times, scored four TDs, but they also had PAT blocked and went 0-2 on 2-point conversions. Carr played 4th quarter with a glove on his right hand.

Only two defensive TDs of day were scored by Giants/Raiders. Newton was 3-12 passing for 18 yards in first half, 11-17 for 226 yards in second haldf, including an 88-yard TD pass to Ted Ginn Jr. Over is now 9-2 in Raider games this season.

Patriots 22, Jets 17— New England is 4-0 (3-1 vs spread) with Brady on road; Jets are now 1-4 at home. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 13-8 vs spread this season. Jets’ last four games were all decided by 5 or less points. under is 6-1 in New York’s last seven games.

Chiefs 30, Broncos 27 OT– Santos banked game-winning FG in off left upright to give Chiefs win after they blew lead late in regulation. Denver tried but missed a 62-yard FG to end game earlier in OT. Dolphins are glad game didn’t end in a tie; would’ve left them behind both teams in Wild Card race.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, November 28

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Monday Night Football betting preview: Packers at Eagles
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The Eagles have dropped five of seven since No. 2 overall draft pick Wentz led them to a 3-0 start, slipping into last place in the NFC East.

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 47.5)

The early-season hype surrounding rookie Carson Wentz has quieted down, but the whispers are growing louder around two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers' inability to stop his team's maddening slump. Both quarterbacks will be trying to keep their teams in the playoff chase when Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles host Rodgers and the sliding Green Bay Packers on Monday night.

The Eagles have dropped five of seven since No. 2 overall draft pick Wentz led them to a 3-0 start, slipping into last place in the NFC East. Still, the Eagles are right on the heels of division rival Washington (6-4-1) for the final playoff spot in the conference and also own a 4-0 record at home, including victories over Atlanta and Minnesota in their last two at Lincoln Financial Field. The Packers are in the midst of a spectacular four-game slide during which they have allowed a staggering 153 points, but Rodgers is maintaining a positive outlook. "I feel like we can run the table, I really do," Rodgers said. "You just feel like it just takes one (win). We get one under our belts, things might start rolling for us and we can run the table."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 3.5-point home favorites and, despite a brief rise to -4, the spread currently sits on the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 48, dropped a full point to 47 and currently sits at 47.5. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for Philadelphia is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-40's for kickoff on Monday evening - not too bad for late November in Philly. There will be a light breeze (3-4 mph) that will not be a factor.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams are struggling after decent starts this season. Green Bay has gone just 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) after a 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) start, while Philadelphia has gone just 2-5 SU/ATS after their 3-0 SU/ATS start. Both teams are struggling to throw the ball as the Packers are averaging only 6.3 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow 6.7 ypp), while the Eagles average just 6.2 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow 6.8 ypp)."

INJURY REPORT:

Packers - LB J. Ryan (Probable, ankle), CB D. Randall (Questionable, groin), LB K. Fackrell (Questionable, hamstring), C J. Tretter (Questionable, knee), G T. Lang (Questionable, ankle), T D. Barclay (Questionable, shoulder), S K. Bice (Questionable, back), LB B. Martinez (Out, knee), CB D. Goodson (Out, knee), CB M. Dorleant (Questionable, undisclosed), CB S. Shields (I-R, concussion), RB E. Lacy (I-R, ankle), RB D. Jackson (I-R, knee), RB J. Crockett (I-R, shoulder).

Eagles - CB L. McKelvin (Probable, concussion), DE C. Barwin (Probable, undisclosed), RB D. Sproles (Probable, ribs), DE S. Means (Questionable, illness), DT T. Hart (Questionable, ankle), S T. Brooks (Questionable, hamstring), DT F. Cox (Questionable, undisclosed), RB R. Matthews (Out, knee), T H. Vaitai (Out, knee), T L. Johnson (Elig Week 16, suspension), CB R. Brooks (I-R, quadricep), LB J. Walker (I-R, knee), DE A. McCalister (I-R, calf).

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 6-4 O/U): Following narrow losses to Atlanta and Indianapolis by a combined six points, Green Bay's defense has been carved up for 89 points by Tennessee and Washington in the first two stops of its three-game road trip. With the Packers having failed to force a turnover in three of the last four defeats, defensive coordinator Dom Capers told reporters: "You just keep working at it. ... We know how to do it, we’ve done it for quite a while around here, but we’re not getting it done right now." Green Bay is hopeful that Christine Michael, claimed off waivers from Seattle, will be ready to bolster a sagging running game with a full week of practice. Rodgers continues to put up solid numbers with 15 TD passes and three interceptions in his last five games.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U): It's hardly a surprise that Wentz has been unable to sustain his hot start, given the dearth of playmakers at wide receiver and a spotty running game. Wentz threw seven touchdown passes against one interception in his first four games, but those numbers have changed with four scoring tosses and six picks in the last six contests. Wentz has thrown for more than 238 yards just once in his last seven games, with wideout Jordan Matthews his favorite target with 53 receptions and three touchdowns. Ryan Mathews rushed for a season-high 109 yards and two touchdowns in a win over Atlanta on Nov. 13, but he injured his knee in last week's loss at Seattle and is not expected to play. Philadelphia has surrendered only 38 points in its four home games.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
* Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Eagles last 9 games in Week 12.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Philadelphia Eagles are picking up 58 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 76 percent of the Over/Under wagers.

[StarDust Bum]

Public chalks up Week 12 win
November 28, 2016

The good news for Las Vegas sports books during Sunday's Week 12 NFL action was that they beat the spread on the top two most heavily bet favorites (Seattle and New England) of the day. The bad news was that there was Thanksgiving leftovers from Thursday that were waiting to cash, and plenty did to the point that most books found themselves with a losing day.

"We're way down," said William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich prior to the Sunday night game, "and it's just going to get worse tonight and tomorrow."

Favorites went only 5-6-1 against-the-spread on the day based on closing numbers, which would normally be the perfect mix for the books to do well, but the tidal wave of risk started on Thursday and carried over all weekend with teaser and parlay liability that cashed Sunday.

"Yeah, it was a losing day because of teasers," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "Seattle losing helped stop the bleeding."

The Buccaneers jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and held on to win 14-5 at home against Seattle who were favored by 6-points. It was one of two underdogs on the day to win outright.

"Tampa was the life raft on the Titanic," Station Casinos sports books director Jason McCormick said. "We got crushed on teasers, which started on Thursday.

If you had bet every teaser side on Thursday, you went 5-1 with the only loser being the Colts. While plenty cashed on the day of the game -- especially hotel guests on the strip leaving the next day or two (Vegas locals played the whole weekend card), the leftovers were steaming hard into Sunday and six of the 12 games had both sides on the teaser cash. It didn't matter what side you bet on those six games, you cashed.

That's why the two-team 6-point teaser is the best bet in the casino, and after the season we're probably going to see several books re-evaluate their pay charts. Laying -120 is definitely too cheap, and apparently so is -130. For the type of value the 6-point two-team teaser offers, the starting point that brings some edge back to the book on this prop might be -140 or even dare I say -150.

Or we could even see that option taken off the board completely like a few books did a decade ago only to bring them back for competitive purposes. Of course there was public outcry screaming at those books because bettors know it's the best bet on the board to consistently make money with. College football? Not a big deal. Pro and college basketball? No edge, and maybe way too big of an edge for the house.

But pro football, with the sharpest and most consistent spreads offered in any sport, yes, it's a big deal.

The team that did the most individual damage across town was the Giants (-7) at Cleveland. They were bet heavily with small money on teasers, parlays and straight bets that added up large. Wise guys had bet hundreds of thousands of dollars at every book on the Browns because they were close to 2.5-points of value with the winless Browns.

Despite all the Browns wise guy action, William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported to have 89 percent of all the cash bet on the spread still laying points with the Giants. While the Giants looked sluggish in a soft spot that the sharps had anticipated, the Browns did typical Browns stuff with the most comical play being Giants DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who is missing a thumb, intercept a pass and return it for a 43-yard touchdown. The Giants tacked on one more TD and and won 27-13.

"Browns continue to kill us. Can't they be relegated," McCormick joked in reference to how the Premiere League in England operates to keep teams competitive in its top division.

Cleveland only has four games left and however high the number is, the public is going to continue to bet against them. They've had up to 30 percent extra added on to their opponents spreads each week and Cleveland is currently on an 0-6 ATS streak and overall have failed to cover 10 of 12 games. Maybe it's time to go 50 percent? It pains any bookmaker to gift wrap out of whack spreads to the wise guys, but the public is feasting and something more has to be done to negate it.

But McCormick has an optimistic approach about things in the immediate future saying he's "looking forward to Browns bye next week." He can at least put the dilemma with all those big Browns questions on the back-burner for now.

After the Week 13 bye, the Browns get a home date with Cincinnati, then go to Buffalo, at home against San Diego and close out in Week 17 at Pittsburgh. That's a rough run for any team let alone one still looking for their first win.

[Udog]

NFL Week 13 opening line report: Early Cowboys action moving line

“We had the Cowboys power-rated as a 3 point favorite, but knowing what the bettors are going to do here, we added the hook and opened Cowboys -3.5."

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)

For the second straight week, these teams will play on Thursday, this time against each other after both played on Thanksgiving.

Dallas, behind rookies Dak Prescott at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliott at running back, has been nothing short of completely impressive during a 10-game winning streak. On Thursday, the Cowboys (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) held off Washington 31-26 as a 5.5-point home favorite, the first time since Week 1 that they haven’t cashed.

Minnesota (6-5 SU and ATS) has pretty much squandered all of its 5-0 SU and ATS start. For the second time this month, the Vikings fell to Detroit, this time 16-13 as a 1.5-point road underdog on Thursday.

“The Cowboys finally didn’t cover, showing that the spread and the betting markets finally caught up with them,” Childs said. “That said, they closed a 6-point favorite last Thursday and won by 5, so they were pretty damn close to cashing tickets for their backers. No question, bettors are going to back them again, especially considering how poorly the Vikings played on Thanksgiving.

“The Vikings’ offense is virtually nonexistent. They’re ranked dead last rushing the ball in the NFL, and it’s not just bad, but historically bad. They face the best rushing team and one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.

Sportsbook.ag had to keep all that and more in mind when setting the opening number.

“We had the Cowboys power-rated as a 3 point favorite, but knowing what the bettors are going to do here, we added the hook and opened Cowboys -3.5. So far, all the early action is on them, and we’ve already gone to -4.”

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

As Dallas grabs all the headlines, New York – the only team to beat the Cowboys this year – has quietly run its record to 8-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS. The Giants beat winless Cleveland 27-13 as a 6.5-point road fave Sunday.

Pittsburgh got itself back above .500 on Thanksgiving night, dumping Indianapolis 28-7 as an 8-point chalk to improve to 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS. That kept the Steelers tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North.

“The Steelers come into this game plenty rested, and it’s a great spot for them,” Childs said. “That extra three days is big considering the Giants will be playing their second consecutive road game. Both teams have plenty of weapons on offense, but the Giants grade out better on the defensive side of the ball. That said, the Giants really haven’t beaten a quality team, in my opinion.

“We grade out the Steelers as the better team, playing with extra rest and playing at home against a team we have serious questions about. We opened the Steelers a solid 6-point favorite, and so far, money and bet count is dead equal on this game.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, no line

Atlanta has won three of its last four, which in the NFC South is considered blazing hot. The Falcons (7-4 SU and ATS) coasted past Arizona 38-19 laying 4 points at home Sunday.

Kansas City kept itself just a game behind AFC West-leading Oakland by pulling out a riveting overtime win in Denver on Sunday night. The Chiefs (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) got a final-seconds TD and 2-point conversion to tie the game, then won 30-27 on a field goal as time expired in OT, cashing as a 3.5-point road pup.

“We didn’t open this game yet, as the Chiefs were playing Sunday night,” Childs said. “But I see us opening this game roughly Falcons -3.5.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Just when Seattle seemed to be rounding into their Super Bowl form, Pete Carroll’s troops laid a complete egg Sunday. The Seahawks (7-3-1 SU, 6-5 ATS), 5-point favorites at Tampa Bay, only scored that many points in a 14-5 loss.

Meanwhile, defending NFC champion Carolina can just about mail it in on this season. The Panthers (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) made a stirring comeback from a 24-7 deficit at Oakland, ultimately taking a 32-24 lead, but they fell short 35-32 getting 3.5 points.

“This is a tough game, because we’re not sure of the Panthers’ mindset,” Childs said. “They’re off a devastating loss against the Raiders, a loss that essentially eliminates them from serious playoff contention. They travel to arguably the toughest place to play, in Seattle, and they take on a team off a very disappointing loss to the Bucs. It was an embarrassing offensive showing for the Seahawks, and we fully expect them to bring their ‘A’ game in this prime-time contest.

“We opened the Seahawks -6.5. Again, we know the type of effort we’ll see from Seattle. If they play their best game, they can beat anyone by over a touchdown at home, especially if that team comes in flat, which the Panthers could be. We’ll see what the betting market does with this game and go from there.”

[Udog]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 13 NFL lines are going to move

The New York Giants have won six straight (5-1 ATS in that stretch) and now stand at 8-3.

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Here come the Giants. The New Yorkers have won six straight (5-1 ATS in that stretch) and now stand at 8-3. The Giants have a puncher’s chance at catching the Cowboys in the NFC East (they have Dallas at home on Dec. 11), and even if they fall short, they are in prime position for a wild-card spot. They aren’t overpowering anyone on either side of the ball, but they are just good enough on both offense and defense to get the job done. Whether the Giants can stay hot as the competition gets tougher is anyone’s guess, though. None of their final five opponents have a losing record, and the next three games (Steelers, Cowboys, Lions) are division leaders who will have lots on the line. Early money is spread equally on this game, suggesting no line movement.


Game to wait on

Dallas at Minnesota (+3.5) (Thursday)

Heavy money on the Cowboys forced books to move this one from Vikings +2.5 to +3.5, unusual in that it could enable early bettors to middle it and win on both ends if the Cowboys win by a field goal. What is clear is that the Vikings’ loss – their 5th in the last 6 games – last Thursday at Detroit exposed some serious offensive problems. With Adrian Peterson out, Minnesota doesn’t have much of a run game (RBs had only 58 yards vs. the Lions). Dallas has scored at least 24 points in every game since the opener (a 20-19 loss to the Giants; the Cowboys are only two points away from a perfect season). Minnesota is banged up quite a bit, so it might be worthwhile to wait until the injury report to see who will be a go in this one.


Total to watch

Los Angeles at New England (45)

There are lots of moving parts in this one, including Rob Gronkowski’s back injury, the New England weather in December, and chaos in the Rams’ defense. The number has been bet down from its 46 opening, possibly based on the questionable status of Gronkowski, but NE seems to find a way to score at home. The Patriots have played only two home games since Tom Brady’s return from suspension, and in those two they scorched the Bengals for 35 and put 24 on the board against the Seahawks. Toss in the fact that NE’s own defense has been worse than expected, and the over could fall rather easily in this one.