Announcement

**Udog** · 11-21-2016, 12:04 PM

NFL Week 12 opening line report: Thanksgiving week brings critical matchups

"The Cowboys will once again be the side of the public, they have been all year, and all they do is cash tickets for their backers.”

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys, no line

Dallas is hotter than a two-dollar pistol and gets to play at home on a short week. The Cowboys (9-1 SU and ATS) haven’t lost outright nor against the number since Week 1, and on Sunday, they topped the Baltimore Ravens 27-17 as a 7-point home favorite.

Washington appears to be getting its act together, putting itself in the wild-card picture in the process. On Sunday night, the Redskins (6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) rolled past reeling Green Bay 42-24 as a 3-point home chalk.

“Both the ‘Skins and Cowboys are coming off very nice efforts, more so the Skins, having won by 18 points in front of a national TV audience on Sunday night,” Childs said. “But this is a real tough spot for Washington, having played Sunday night and now having to travel on a very short week. The Cowboys will once again be the side of the public, they have been all year, and all they do is cash tickets for their backers.”

Since the ‘Skins were in the late game, Childs said Sportsbook.ag would wait until Monday to post the line. But he’s leaning toward Dallas as about a touchdown fave.

“My line before the ‘Skins played on Sunday night was Cowboys -7. We’ll assess in the morning, but I feel like we’ll open Cowboys -6.5 and see what bettors do with it.”

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3)

There’s a game in the NFC North with first-place on the line, and it doesn’t involve the Green Bay Packers. Minnesota and Detroit are tied at 6-4 SU and ATS, though Detroit has an edge since it beat Minnesota 22-16 in overtime as a 4.5-point underdog earlier this month.

In fact, the Lions are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games, after fending off Jacksonville 26-19 Sunday laying 5.5 points at home. The Vikings, meanwhile, finally got back on track after a four-game SU and ATS slide, besting Arizona 30-24 giving 2 points at home.

“Monster game for the NFC North, as the winner will have the inside track on the division and a playoff berth,” Childs said. “And it’s a great game to start Turkey Day. We opened Lions -3, strictly on having home field, as these teams grade out equally on my power ratings. So far, most of the early money is on the ‘dog, so we adjusted the Vikings to +3 (-120), hanging some extra juice on them.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

The AFC West is a three-team logjam, with defending Super Bowl champion Denver just trying to keep pace with both Kansas City and Oakland. The Broncos (7-3 SU and ATS) should be well-rested for this Sunday night contest, coming off their bye week after a stunning win at New Orleans, where Denver – a 3-point ‘dog – returned a block extra point to account for the final score of 25-23.

The Chiefs (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) are coming off arguably an equally stunning loss. Kansas City was a 7-point home chalk Sunday against Tampa Bay, but ended up losing 19-17. Bad loss aside, Childs is still looking forward to this division showdown.

“Thank God this game got flexed into the prime-time Sunday night game, or we’d be stuck with the Patriots-Jets game, which would have been bad for betting action,” Childs said. “The Broncos are coming off a bye, and I have a feeling the extra prep time is going to help them immensely, especially on offense, where they’ve been struggling recently. The Chiefs are off an awful loss to the lowly Bucs, at home no less.

“It’s a monster game, with both wild-card and divisional implications. The loser will be fighting an uphill battle for the AFC West.”

Sportsbook.ag opted to open Denver at -3.5 in the Mile High City.

“The Broncos always play well at home, so we had to make them at least a 3-point favorite,” Childs said. “We added a hook, thinking bettors were going to be turned off on the Chiefs after their latest effort, or lack thereof. So far, we’ve seen good two-way action at 3.5, so I don’t see this number moving all that much.”

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles, no line

Two teams fighting to stay relevant in the 2016 season wrap up Week 12 by playing on “Monday Night Football.” Green Bay’s position is surely the bigger surprise, as it dropped to 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS after a 42-24 loss at Washington catching 3 points in the Sunday nighter.

Philadelphia got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS behind rookie QB Carson Wentz, but is 2-5 SU and ATS since then. On Sunday, the Eagles (5-5 SU and ATS) lost 26-15 at Seattle getting 6.5 points.

“The Packers suffered a devastating loss that could seal their fate for missing the playoffs. They also suffered a bunch of injuries, which is very troubling for a team that was already beat up on both sides of the ball,” said Childs, noting that with Green Bay playing late Sunday, the opening line had to wait. “My initial number prior to the Sunday night game was Eagles -2. Now, I see us opening (Monday) at least 3 and maybe more.”

Part of the calculus is the Packers remaining on the road this week.

“They’re a beat-up and demoralized team traveling for the third straight week,” Childs said. “I can’t see them coming up with much of an effort, and the Eagles have been money in the bank at home (4-0 SU and ATS). I really need to read up more on the Packers’ injury situation, but I see us opening up Eagles -3.5 or more.”

**Udog** · 11-21-2016, 12:05 PM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 12 NFL lines are going to move

Coach Todd Bowles is reportedly ready to jettison erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick and start rebuilding around second-year QB Bryce Petty.

Game to bet now

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-4)

Can things get any worse for the Bengals? This past Sunday’s loss to the Bills (at home) might have just about ended their season. Cincy is now 3-6-1, and while that’s not too deep a hole in an AFC North Division co-led by the Steelers and Ravens at 5-5, Marvin Lewis has more than his share of problems with the team’s best player (A.J. Green) possibly lost for the season with a hamstring injury, and running back Giovani Bernard (ACL) definitely cooked for 2016.

The injury news moved the line from Baltimore -3 (almost all AFC North games not involving the Browns are field goal lines) to Ravens -4.

Given the Bengals’ historical inability to deal with adversity, even 4 might be a bargain.

Game to wait on

New England at New York Jets (+8.5)

Looks like a wasted year for the Jets, who are rumored to be getting set to release CB Darrelle Revis after the season. Coach Todd Bowles is reportedly ready to jettison erratic Ryan Fitzpatrick and start rebuilding around second-year QB Bryce Petty. Problem is, everyone knows Petty is nowhere near ready, and inserting him into the lineup would give a loud and clear signal that the head coach of the NYJ is cashing it in this year.

Complicating matters is that New England is next on the schedule after New York’s bye, and the Pats feast on inexperienced quarterbacks because of their intricate defensive schemes.

Best wait on this one until it’s clear who the Jets will use at QB.

Total to watch

Seattle at Tampa Bay (44.5)

On the surface there appears to be nothing special here. Seattle is 5-5 on the over, and Tampa Bay games have covered the O/U number 6 times in 10 games. But there’s a little more to it. The Seahawks have found their offense and have averaged nearly 30 points a game since the calendar turned to November. Russell Wilson is playing with great confidence.

And don’t be fooled by the Buccaneers’ scoring less than 20 in a win over Kansas City on Sunday. Prior to that their games had gone over four straight times. In home games the Bucs average nearly 26 ppg.

This game was bet down half a point in early wagering, making it tempting for a hard look at the over.

**Udog** · 11-21-2016, 12:05 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 24

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MINNESOTA (6 - 4) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/24/2016, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 57-82 ATS (-33.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 129-165 ATS (-52.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (6 - 3 - 1) at DALLAS (9 - 1) - 11/24/2016, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
WASHINGTON is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 5) - 11/24/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 27

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 6) at HOUSTON (6 - 3) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 27-4 ATS (+22.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (5 - 6) at CHICAGO (2 - 8) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 47-26 ATS (+18.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 8) at BUFFALO (5 - 5) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (3 - 6 - 1) at BALTIMORE (5 - 5) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (4 - 5 - 1) at ATLANTA (6 - 4) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 9) at MIAMI (6 - 4) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (4 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 6) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 175-218 ATS (-64.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-218 ATS (-64.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-111 ATS (-42.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-171 ATS (-62.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 25-46 ATS (-25.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (7 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 11) - 11/27/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 35-61 ATS (-32.1 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 32-56 ATS (-29.6 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 39-19 ATS (+18.1 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (7 - 2 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 5) - 11/27/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 61-36 ATS (+21.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (4 - 6) at OAKLAND (7 - 2) - 11/27/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 71-100 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 71-100 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 71-100 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 36-75 ATS (-46.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 19-41 ATS (-26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (7 - 3) at DENVER (7 - 3) - 11/27/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
DENVER is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 54-34 ATS (+16.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (8 - 2) at NY JETS (3 - 7) - 11/27/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 179-134 ATS (+31.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ENGLAND is 103-75 ATS (+20.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 28

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GREEN BAY (4 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) - 11/28/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-21-2016, 12:06 PM

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 24

12:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Detroit is 6-14-3 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota

4:30 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
Washington is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Washington is 6-18-1 SU in its last 25 games ,on the road
Dallas is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Washington
Dallas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Pittsburgh is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Sunday, November 27

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. ATLANTA
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Baltimore is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. BUFFALO
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. MIAMI
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Miami is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home

1:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Los Angeles's last 11 games on the road
Los Angeles is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
New Orleans is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. CLEVELAND
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 1-2-2 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games at home
Cleveland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. CHICAGO
Tennessee is 4-14-1 ATS in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games when playing Seattle

4:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Carolina's last 21 games on the road
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland6-1-1 SU in its last 8 games
Oakland is 8-16-1 SU in its last 25 games ,at home

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New England is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
NY Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England
NY Jets are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games when playing New England

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home

Monday, November 28

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Green Bay is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Green Bay

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**Udog** · 11-22-2016, 10:16 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Turkey Day edition

Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0).

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 42.5)

Vikings' stout run defense vs. Lions' lack of ground scoring

Anyone who wrote off the Vikings defense going into its Week 11 encounter with the Arizona Cardinals is probably giving that stance a second thought. The Vikings D/ST had a sensational day, generating a pair of field-length touchdowns on the way to a pivotal 30-24 victory over the Cards. And while David Johnson did plenty of damage on the ground, Minnesota remains one of the stingiest teams when it comes to rushing scores; the Lions are about to find that out first-hand.

The Vikings have limited opponents to just five rushing touchdowns through their first 10 games of the season. Johnson's one-yard scoring scamper with 4:07 remaining in the first quarter is the only rushing TD Minnesota has surrendered in its previous three games. That stretch includes a showdown against Detroit in which the Lions prevailed 22-16, but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry - a number that falls to 2.3 if you take out Theo Riddick's 42-yard run - and didn't have a rush attempt inside the 10.

That pass-heavy red-zone strategy has been the Lions' modus operandi so far this season. Detroit enters its Week 12 encounter with just four rushing touchdowns on the year - and one of those came courtesy TE Eric Ebron, who had a one-yard scoring plunge in Sunday's 26-19 plunge over Jacksonville. The Lions' ineptitude at rushing in the red zone, combined with the Vikings' aptitude at preventing rushing scores, could mean bad news for the Detroit offense in a challenging divisional tilt.

Daily fantasy watch: Vikings D/ST

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 50)

Redskins' wretched road rush D vs. Cowboys' dominance in Big D

The latest edition of the Thanksgiving showdown between the Redskins and Cowboys takes on added significance this year, with the Cowboys riding an incredible nine-game winning streak and the Redskins battling with the New York Giants for second place in the NFC East. Yet, while both of these teams have plenty of firepower, the Cowboys enjoy a significant mismatch that grows even bigger in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium.

The Redskins rank in the lower third of the league in run defense, allowing just over 112 yards per game on the ground. That number climbs to 121 yards away from Washington, the eighth-worst road mark in football. While Washington has boasted a much more robust run defense at home - even limiting Dallas rookie superstar Ezekiel Elliott to 83 yards in a Week 2 defeat - the Redskins have been gashed for six rushing touchdowns in four road games. They'll play four of their final six games outside Washington.

That difficult stretch starts with what will easily be their toughest remaining test. Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0). Look for Elliott to exploit Washington's weaknesses on the defensive line - aided, of course, by the top offensive line in football - and make things extraordinally difficult for the Redskins in hostile territory.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (OFF)

Steelers' third-down road shutdown vs. Colts' home conversion woes

The narrative just won't go away: The Pittsburgh Steelers are a far worse offensive team on the road than they are at home. And it's hard to argue that point when you consider that, over his last 19 road games, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 19 TD passes compared to 55 over his previous 19 home games. But this entry focuses on the Steelers' impressive third-down road defense, and how it matches up favorably with a Colts team struggling to convert on third down at home.

Pittsburgh has been one of the toughest teams in the league when it comes to home teams facing third-down situations, with the Steelers allowing a minuscule 33.3-percent conversion rate. That's tied with the Miami Dolphins for the second-best rate, behind only the Oakland Raiders (28.8). And while facing the Browns in Cleveland doesn't hurt - Pittsburgh held them to 4-for-15 on third downs in Sunday's win - the Steelers have been almost as stingy against the rest of their road opponents.

That bodes poorly for the Colts, who come into the game as a slight underdog despite having home-field advantage. Only six teams have been less successful at converting third downs at home than Indianapolis, whose 37.1-percent success rate is down from the 40 percent mark it posted a season ago. Whether it's Andrew Luck or Scott Tolzien under center, look for the Colts to try and avoid having to convert third downs against a Pittsburgh defensive unit that has proven adept at forcing home teams to punt.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Donte Moncrief

**Udog** · 11-23-2016, 03:57 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 12

Thurs – Nov. 24

Minnesota at Detroit, 12:30 PM ET
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Detroit: 14-31 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Washington at Dallas, 4:30 PM ET
Washington: 4-13 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8
Dallas: 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis, 8:30 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 1-5 ATS off a win against a division rival
Indianapolis: 11-1 ATS when playing on a Thursday

Sun – Nov. 27

San Diego at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
San Diego: 27-4 ATS against AFC South division opponents
Houston: 16-6 OVER as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Tennessee at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 6-15 ATS in road lined games
Chicago: 14-4 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses

Jacksonville at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 1-9 ATS off a non-conference game
Buffalo: 9-2 OVER as a favorite

Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati: 9-7 ATS after playing a game at home after playing a game at home
Baltimore: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points

Arizona at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Arizona: 10-3 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5
Atlanta: 1-8 ATS as a home favorite

San Francisco at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
San Francisco: 5-14 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points
Miami: 3-1 ATS off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog

Los Angeles at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 15-30 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
New Orleans: 26-12 OVER in home games after a loss by 6 or less points

NY Giants at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
New York: 22-9 ATS in road games after a win by 6 or less points
Cleveland: 4-13 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses

Seattle at Tampa Bay, 4:05 PM ET
Seattle: 41-24 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game
Tampa Bay: 0-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Carolina at Oakland, 4:25 PM ET
Carolina: 89-62 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Oakland: 17-33 ATS in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

Kansas City at Denver, 8:30 PM ET
Kansas City: 22-39 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Denver: 8-1 ATS after a win by 6 or less points

New England at NY Jets, 4:25 PM ET
New England: 8-2 ATS in all lined games
New York: 39-21 OVER after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Mon – Nov. 28

Green Bay at Philadelphia, 8:30 PM ET
Green Bay: 2-6 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
Philadelphia: 4-0 ATS in home lined games

**Udog** · 11-23-2016, 03:59 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's games
Vikings (6-4) @ Lions (6-4)— Battle for first place in NFC North. Detroit kicked 58-yard FG on last play of regulation, won first meeting 22-16 in OT at Minnesota three weeks ago. This rivalry has been swept in four of last five years; Lions are 7-5 in last 12 games with Vikings, 4-2 in last six played here. Minnesota snapped 4-game skid with win over Arizona; they’ve scored a TD on defense/special teams in 4 of their 6 wins. Vikings lost last three road games, by 11-10-6 points- they’re 1-1 as road dogs. All 10 Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; Lions trailed all 10 games in 4th quarter- they’re 4-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Last four Detroit games stayed; under total; under is 4-1 in Viking road games.

Redskins (6-3-1) @ Cowboys (9-1)— Two hot teams; Washington is 6-1-1 in last eight games, Dallas has won/covered nine straight games. Really short week for Redskins, who have long road trip, plus they played Sunday NIGHT. This is only 4th true road game for Washington; they are 2-1 in first three, all decided by 6 or less points- two of those were in New Jersey/Baltimore, very short trips- they also had neutral field game in London. Dallas hasn’t lost since Opening Night vs Giants; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Cowboy opponents are just 8 for last 28 on third down. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Over is 4-1 in last five Redskin games, 2-5 in last seven Dallas games.

Steelers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5)— Colt QB Luck had concussion in win over Titans; check status for this game; his backup is Tolzien (0-1-1 as NFL starter, with ’13 Packers). Pitt is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last two 51-34/45-10; they outgained Colts 522-240 in LY’s game. Steelers won three of last four visits here, but last one was in 2011. Pitt snapped 4-game skid with lackluster 24-9 win in Cleveland; they’re 2-3 on road, with losses by 31-15-7 points. Only one of 10 Steeler games was decided by less than 7 points. Indy won three of last four games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2-1 vs spread as an underdog this year. NFC North teams are 8-18 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-10 on road. AFC South teams are 13-14 vs spread, 7-7 at home. Steelers allowed 16 or less points in their wins, 21+ in their losses.

**Udog** · 11-23-2016, 04:02 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Vikings at Lions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Lions beat the Vikings 22-16 in overtime in Week 9, as Matthew Stafford hit Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in the extra period.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 43)

A showdown for the top spot in the NFC North takes place Thursday, when the Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings in their traditional Thanksgiving Day contest. Detroit has won five of its last six games to surge into a tie atop the division with Minnesota, which snapped its four-game skid last week.

The Lions beat the Vikings 22-16 in overtime in Week 9, as Matt Prater made a game-tying 58-yard field goal at the end of regulation and Matthew Stafford hit Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in the extra period. The late-game heroics were nothing new for Detroit, which has had all 10 of its games decided by seven points or fewer - with its six wins coming by a total of 24. "I think they've done a great job at the end of ballgames, including the one we played,” Vikings coach Mike Zimmer told reporters. “The biggest thing is once you start winning, you develop confidence, and that's what they've done at the end of ballgames." Minnesota’s confidence was trending in the opposite direction with four straight losses before holding on for a 30-24 home triumph over Arizona on Sunday.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 2.5-point home favorites over their division rivals from Minnesota and, as of Tuesday evening, that line hasn't moved. The total hit the board at 42.5 and was bumped up to 43 on Monday morning. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - CB M. Alexander (Probable, shoulder), LB C. Greenway (Questionable, personal), S A. Sendejo (Questionable, illness), WR S. Diggs (Questionable, knee), DT T. Johnson (Questionable, illness), CB T. Newman (Questionable, neck), CB M. Sherels (Questionable, ribs), LB E. Kendricks (Questionable, hip), CB C. Munnerlyn (Questionable, ankle), QB T. Heinicke (Questionable, foot), DT S. Floyd (Questionable, knee), C Z. Kerin (Questionable, hand), S H. Smith (Questionable, ankle), RB A. Peterson (Mid December, knee), G M. Harris (Questionable, illness), T J. Long (I-R, achilles), T A. Smith (I-R, tricep), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr. (I-R, leg).

Lions - RB T. Riddick (Probable, ankle), CB A. Barnes (Questionable, hamstring), S D. Carey (Questionable, hamstring), DE E. Ansah (Questionable, ankle), C G. Glasgow (Questionable, ankle), DT K. Thornton (Questionable, foot), LB D. Levy (Out, quadricep), DE A. Bryant (Elig Week 13, suspension), TE B. Pettigrew (Doubtful, knee), RB A. Abdullah (Questionable, foot), TE C. Wick (I-R, knee), TE T. Wright (I-R, knee), LB J. Bostic (I-R, foot), LS J. Landes (I-R, shoulder), CB I. Wells (I-R, knee), WR R. Spadola (I-R, pectoral).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Minnesota’s league-worst offense had another rough showing last week with 217 total yards, but a defensive score and a special-teams touchdown helped make up for it. The Vikings could be without a major offensive weapon in Stefon Diggs, who has averaged 10 catches over his last four games and ranks second in the NFC with 67 receptions but is questionable with a knee injury. Minnesota’s third-ranked pass defense will be put to the test but is coming off a strong outing in which it limited Arizona to 155 yards.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Detroit has become increasingly one-dimensional on offense, all but abandoning the run in recent weeks and finishing with just 14 rushing yards against Jacksonville on Sunday. Running back Theo Riddick is nursing an ankle injury but is expected to play, but he is a bigger factor for Stafford and the passing game than the ground attack. The defense has been excellent of late, holding the last three opponents to an average of 297 total yards and forcing three turnovers last week.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Lions are picking 54 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 62 percent of the totals wagers.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 11-23-2016, 04:05 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Redskins at Cowboys
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kirk Cousins is coming off a sensational performance against Green Bay in which he recorded 375 yards in the air and three scores.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 51)

The Dallas Cowboys were on the verge of a falling into an early 0-2 hole this season before rallying for a 27-23 victory at the Washington Redskins in Week 2. That comeback provided the impetus for a nine-game winning streak for the red-hot Cowboys, who will host the arch-rival Redskins in a rematch on Thanksgiving Day.

Dallas overcame another slow start to beat the Baltimore Ravens 27-17 on Sunday and maintain a two-game lead over the New York Giants atop the NFC East - with Washington sitting another half-game back. “We’re not going to spend a lot of time on that, to be honest with you,” Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said of his team's tear, especially with such a quick turnaround for Thursday's game. The Redskins have dug themselves out of an 0-2 hole to stay within striking range of Dallas by dismantling the Green Bay Packers 42-24 on Sunday night to improve to 6-1-1 in their last eight. “It’s one game,” cautioned Washington wideout DeSean Jackson. "This next game will determine a lot. If we go out and knock them out, a lot of people will see what we’re about.”

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 7-point home favorites, the line went down to -6.5 on Monday morning, jumped all of the way up to -7.5 on Monday afternoon, and settled back to the key opening number of -7 on Tuesday. The total hit the board at 48.5 and rose steadily to 51 by Tuesday evening. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Conditions are expected to be clear with temperatures in the upper-60's on Thursday afternoon in Arlington.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "These have been two of the most profitable teams in the NFL this season. The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS, while the Redskins are 7-3 ATS, so combined they are 16-4 ATS. Dallas has been a 7-point favorite or less in every game this season, despite going 9-1 SU. That is one of the reasons they have been a pointspread covering machine. However, the oddsmakers will now have no choice but to start inflating the lines on the Cowboys' games going forward."

INJURY REPORT:

Redskins - S W. Blackmon (Probable, thumb), WR J. Crowder (Probable, back), T M. Moses (Probable, ankle), RB M. Jones (Questionable, knee), LS N. Sundberg (Questionable, back), DE C. Baker (Questionable, hamstring), WR D. Jackson (Questionable, shoulder), T T. Nsekhe (Questionable, ankle), LB P. Smith (Questionable, back), T T. Williams (Elig Week 14, suspension), S D. Bruton Jr (Out, concussion), WR J. Doctson (Out, achilles).

Cowboys - WR D. Bryant (Probable, back), OL C. Green (Questionable, foot), DE D. Lawrence (Questionable, back), T T. Smith (Questionable, back), CB M. Claiborne (Out, hernia), S B. Church (Out, forearm), DE R. Gregory (Elig Week 15, suspension), RB D. McFadden (Probable, elbow), OL L. Collins (Doubtful, toe).

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 O/U): Kirk Cousins threw a killer interception that led to the winning touchdown in the first matchup against Dallas, but he is coming off a sensational performance against Green Bay in which he recorded 375 yards in the air and three scores while posting a season-best 145.8 passer rating. Jackson returned from injury Sunday to bolster a deep receiving corps that includes Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and tight end Jordan Reed, while rookie Rob Kelley has invigorated the ground game. Kelley rushed for 137 yards and three TDs on Sunday and has amassed 321 yards in his first three starts. Washington is sixth in the league with 27 sacks, including four versus Dallas in Week 2.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Dallas continues to ride the rookie tandem of quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, the two main cogs for an offense that has produced 400 total yards in eight straight games. Elliott has run for nine touchdowns and is leading the NFL with 1,102 yards rushing while Prescott has relegated Tony Romo to benchwarmer, throwing for 867 yards, eight scores and zero interceptions in his last three games. Wideout Dez Bryant, who missed more than a month due to injury, had a pair of scoring receptions Sunday and went over 100 yards in the first meeting. Dallas is suspect against the pass, allowing an average of 263.5 yards.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Over is 9-1 in Redskins last 10 vs. NFC.
* Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Dallas.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Skins are picking 59 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 72 percent of the totals wagers.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 11-23-2016, 04:08 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Steelers at Colts
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Roethlisberger threw four TD passes as Pittsburgh hammered Indianapolis 45-10 last season, another game in which the Colts played without Luck.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+8, 47.5)

Back-to-back wins have vaulted the Indianapolis Colts back into the playoff picture, but they are nearly certain to be without Andrew Luck when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. Luck, who is having another strong campaign as he ranks fourth in the NFL with 2,827 yards passing with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, entered concussion protocol after guiding Indianapolis past Tennessee last week, and coach Chuck Pagano doesn't believe he'll be cleared in time to play.

Scott Tolzien, who has played in six games in his six-year career, will get the start should Luck not be ready. Tolzien is 56-of-91 for 721 yards with a touchdown and five interceptions in the NFL. Pittsburgh not only snapped its four-game losing streak with a win over lowly Cleveland last time out, but it jumped into a first-place tie in the AFC North in the process. Le'Veon Bell rushed for 146 yards and a score as the Steelers sent the Browns to their 11th straight loss on Sunday.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point road favorites but news of Andrew Luck's injury drove that line all of the way up to 8.5. That number came down slightly to 8 on Wednesday morning. The total opened at 53.5 but was also impacted by Luck's absense and dropped to 48 on Tuesday. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - S J. Dangerfield (Questionable, groin), S S. Thomas (Questionable, groin), TE X. Grimble (Questionable, quadricep), RB D. Williams (Out, knee), WR D. Heyward-Bey (Out, foot), WR M. Bryant (Out For Season, suspension), WR M. Wheaton (I-R, shoulder) CB S. Golson (I-R, foot), DE C. Heyward (I-R, pectoral), LB S. Johnson (I-R, ankle), C C. Wallace (I-R, knee), T R. Harris (I-R, shin), G C. Manhart (I-R, undisclosed), T J. Hawkins (I-R, shoulder), C V. Ume-Ezeoke (I-R, undisclosed.

Colts - CB R. Melvin (Probable, back), DT A. Jones (Probable, knee), CB P. Robinson (Probable, groin), CB V. Davis (Questionable, ankle), S C. Geathers (Questionable, concussion), QB A. Luck (Doubtful, concussion), DE K. Langford (I-R, knee), WR Q. Bray (I-R, ankle), LB T. Cole (Questionable, back), G H. Thornton (I-R, foot), S A. Williamson (I-R, knee).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Bell has been an all-purpose monster since returning from a three-game suspension to start the season, but Sunday marked the first time since Week 4 that he gained over 100 yards on the ground for the Steelers, who rank 23rd in rushing offense. Bell's success took some of the burden off Ben Roethlisberger, who was held without a touchdown pass in a contest which surprisingly was still in doubt until Javon Hargrave recovered a fumble for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Roethlisberger threw four TD passes as Pittsburgh hammered Indianapolis 45-10 last season, another game in which the Colts played without Luck, and the Steelers - who have won the last two matchups by a combined 45 points - cautioned his counterpart not to play. "I will tell him, and this has nothing to do with football, but just to be smart," Roethlisberger told reporters. "The brain is nothing to mess with. He is young and has a long career ahead of himself."

ABOUT THE COLTS (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Clearing concussion protocol is a huge hurdle for Luck in the short week, and the fact that the Colts don't play again until Dec. 5 against the New York Jets leaves it likely they'll let both Luck and safety Clayton Geathers use the extra time to get well. Geathers also was placed in concussion protocol after Sunday's game and cornerback Vontae Davis is questionable with an ankle injury, leaving the Colts' passing defense in an ominous situation against Roethlisberger, who has thrown 10 touchdown passes in his last two games against Indianapolis. The Colts may try to lean more on a ground game led by Frank Gore (642 yards, four touchdowns), but they rank 25th in the league in rushing.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
* Colts are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games.
* Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Steelers are picking 66 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 59 percent of the totals wagers.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 11-24-2016, 07:52 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFL’s top 10, bottom three teams…….

32) Browns— Next weekend will be a little more fun for Cleveland fans; its the Browns’ bye week.

31) 49ers— Lost last nine games; play red-hot Dolphins in Miami this week. Chances are that’ll be ten losses in a row.

30) Jaguars— Lost last five games, last three by 7 or less points.

10) Dolphins— They’ve got lot of good receivers; was mystified why they had less than 100 yards of offense thru 53:00 in LA last week. Not a big Tannehill fan, but he’s on a roll right now.

9) Falcons— Someone is going to give Atlanta OC Kyle Shanahan a head coaching job next season; will his dad come along to help out?

8) Giants— Seven wins by a total of 27 points; expect to see them pummel Cleveland this week or I’ll list them as a suspect for a quick exit in January.

7) Broncos— 7-0 when they score 20+ points, 0-3 when they do not. Still think QB Siemian is a suspect, but as long as he doesn’t screw things up, he’s OK for now. Their defense is that good.

6) Redskins— Jay Gruden is an underrated coach; he’s helped make a dysfunctional franchise successful. Washington took lot of grief for drafting Cousins the same year they traded the farm to draft RGIII; seems like a good idea now.

5) Chiefs— 18-4 in last 22 games, but offense has struggled last three weeks. Big game in Denver Sunday; NBC chose that game instead of Patriots-Jets.

4) Seahawks— Drafting is such an inexact science; Russell Wilson, Joe Montana were 3rd round picks, Tom Brady a 6th round pick. Look at Dak Prescott; he was a 4th round pick after a DUI a month before the draft. Then look at some of the stiffs drafted first. Go figure.

3) Raiders— Jack Del Rio was once the catcher on USC’s baseball team, when one of the pitchers was a guy named Mark McGwire.

2) Patriots— Will Brady/Belichick retire at same time? Imagine the poor bastards who would have to step into those big shoes? When does Jimmy Garoppolo hit the free agent market?

1) Cowboys— Very seldom does a team win/cover nine games in a row, and never, ever with a rookie QB. Interesting game today with the Redskins.

**Udog** · 11-24-2016, 01:10 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Thursday, November 24

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

Game 111-112
November 24, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
132.103
Indianapolis
135.704
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 3 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 10
48
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+10); Under

Washington @ Dallas

Game 109-110
November 24, 2016 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
139.252
Dallas
137.678
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7); Over

Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 107-108
November 24, 2016 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
129.934
Detroit
135.676
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 5 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-2 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 11-24-2016, 08:12 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Sunday, November 27

New England @ NY Jets

Game 273-274
November 27, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
138.981
NY Jets
128.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
47
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Under

Kansas City @ Denver

Game 271-272
November 27, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
132.777
Denver
137.944
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 5
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-3); Over

Carolina @ Oakland

Game 269-270
November 27, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
137.955
Oakland
133.004
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 5
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3 1/2
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+3 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Tampa Bay

Game 267-268
November 27, 2016 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
146.239
Tampa Bay
131.305
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 15
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6
45
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-6); Under

NY Giants @ Cleveland

Game 265-266
November 27, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
127.223
Cleveland
125.826
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+7); Under

Los Angeles @ New Orleans

Game 263-264
November 27, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
130.295
New Orleans
133.962
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+7 1/2); Over

San Francisco @ Miami

Game 261-262
November 27, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
122.039
Miami
136.994
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 15
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 7 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-7 1/2); Over

Arizona @ Atlanta

Game 259-260
November 27, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
134.266
Atlanta
132.357
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4 1/2
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+4 1/2); Over

Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Game 257-258
November 27, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
129.827
Baltimore
135.654
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 6
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-4); Over

Jacksonville @ Buffalo

Game 255-256
November 27, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
128.941
Buffalo
132.508
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 3 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+7 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Chicago

Game 253-254
November 27, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
129.388
Chicago
127.757
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 5
42
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+5); Under

San Diego @ Houston

Game 251-252
November 27, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
136.386
Houston
126.989
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 9 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-1 1/2); Under

Monday, November 28

Green Bay @ Philadelphia

Game 275-276
November 28, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
124.042
Philadelphia
138.269
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 14
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 4
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-4); Under

**Udog** · 11-24-2016, 08:15 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Sunday's games
Chargers (4-6) @ Texans (6-4)— Short week for Houston after Monday night game in Mexico City, while Chargers are coming off a bye. Texans are 5-0 at home, 3-0-1 as home favorites; Bolts are 2-5 in last seven post-bye games, scoring 11.5 pts/game in last four; they’re 1-4 on road this year, with four of five games decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Chargers are 3-2 as road underdogs, 2-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Houston is 3-1-1 in games with spread of 3 or less. San Diego won four of last five series games, winning 27-20/29-23 here; average total in last four series games, 50.8. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 11-3 vs spread, AFC South home teams are 7-7. Over is 8-2 in San Diego games this year, 5-2 in Texans’ last seven games.

Titans (5-6) @ Bears (2-8)— Chicago QB Cutler hurt shoulder Sunday, may be out for year; check status- former Eagle/Cardinal/USC Barkley is backup QB (65 PA in five games, no starts). Bears were outscored 32-0 in second half of last two games, 59-14 in last four; they’re 2-2 at home, beating rivals Lions/Vikings- they’re 3-4 vs spread as an underdog. Tennessee has their bye next week, could be little tired; they’re 2-3 on road, 3-1-1 as road favorite last four years (0-0 this year). Home side lost last four series games; Titans are 3-2 here, but last visit was in ’08. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC North teams are 6-6 in non-divisional home teams. Over is 7-1 in last eight Tennessee games, 1-4 in Bears’ last five. Underdogs covered all four Chicago home games this season.

Jaguars (2-8) @ Bills (5-5)— Both teams have fired their OC during season; Jax is 0-3 since they canned their OC, losing by 5-3-7 points, turning ball over nine times (-7) on 35 drives. Buffalo lost three of last four games, is 2-2 SU at home, 1-1 as home favorites; they haven’t allowed a 2nd half TD in five of last seven games. Jaguars lost last five games, are 2-3 as road underdogs, losing true road games by 24-14-5 points, with win at Chicago 17-16, after they trailed 13-0 in 4th quarter. Bills are 2-2 vs spread as favorites this year. NFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-5 vs spread; AFC South road teams are 5-7. Over is 6-4 in Jaguar games, 7-2 in last nine Buffalo games. NFL-wide, favorites of 7+ points are 20-15-1 vs spread this season.

Bengals (3-6-1) @ Ravens (5-5)— Cincy is 3-6-1 despite being favored in 7 of 10 games this year; they’re 1-4-1 in last six games, losing last two by total of 5 points- they lost last four true road games, by 8-14-1-18. Bengals’ only road win this year was 23-22 in Swamp Stadium over Jets back in Week 1. Baltimore won its last two home games; they’re 4-1 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-4 when they allow more. Ravens are 3-2 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-7-21, losses to Raiders/Redskins. Bengals won last five series games, with 3 of 5 by 7+ points; Bengals won 23-16/28-24 in last two visits here. Home favorites are 4-0 vs spread in AFC North games this season. Under is 3-1 in Bengals’ last four road games, 5-1 in last six Raven games.

Cardinals (4-5-1) @ Falcons (6-4)— Arizona coach Arians was hospitalized Monday with chest pains; coaching is stressful. Home side won last eight series games; Redbirds lost last seven visits here, with last win here in ’93. Cardinals turned ball over 8 times (-5) in last three games; they’re 0-2 on artificial turf, allowing 33-30 points to Bills/Vikings. Atlanta is 2-3 in last five games after a 4-1 start; they’re 2-2 at home, 1-3 as home favorite, with home wins by 1-15 points- average total in Falcon home games, 66.3 (over 4-0). All four Arizona road games also went over. Atlanta is 6-1 in last seven post-bye games (5-2 vs spread). Redbirds are 1-3 on road, with only win at SF (0-2 as road underdog)— all four road games went over total. Over is 8-2 in Atlanta games. NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 3-9 vs spread, 3-4 on road. NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 2-7 vs spread.

49ers (1-9) @ Dolphins (6-4)— Miami won/covered last five games after 1-4 start, rallying from down 10-0 with 5:00 to go last week in LA- they trailed three of last four games at half. Dolphins are 4-1 at home, 1-4 as home favorites, with home wins by 6-15-3-4 points. Opponents are 17 of 59 on 3rd down during Miami’s win streak. Fish are +8 in turnovers the last five games. 49ers lost last nine games (1-8 vs spread); they’re 1-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 19-19-29-3 points (cover was at Arizona). SF was outscored 75-26 in 2nd half of last five games. Niners won five of last seven series games; they’re 2-3 in five visits here, with last one in ’08. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-3 at home. NFC West underdogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road. Over is 6-3 in Niners’ last nine games.

Rams (4-6) @ Saints (4-6)— New Orleans scored 25+ points in all four of its wins; they’re 0-4 when they score less than 25. First road start for rookie QB Goff; at least it won’t rain like it did in his debut LW. Rams have two offensive TDs on their last 43 drives; they’re 3-2 SU on road, 4-0 as road underdogs, with road losses 28-0 at SF, 31-28 in Detroit. New Orleans had three extra days to prep after Thursday game last week; Saints lost last two games by total of 5 points. NO is 2-3 SU at home, with underdog covering all five games- Saints are 0-3 as home faves. Rams won four of last six series games; last one was in ’13. LA is 4-2 in last six visits here (last one in ’10). NFC West non-divisional dogs are 3-9, 3-4 on road; NFC South favorites are 4-9, 2-7 at home. Last four Ram games, four of Saints’ last five games stayed under total.

Giants (7-3) @ Browns (0-11)— Cleveland is awful and tired; their bye is next week. New York has 7 wins by total of 27 points; none by more than seven points. Giants are 1-2 in true road games, with only win 20-19 in Dallas- they beat the Rams 17-10 in London, on a neutral field. Cleveland goes back to McCown at QB this week; they’ve been outscored 70-17 in second half of their last four games. Browns are 1-3-1 as home underdogs, with losses on Lake Erie by 5-20-3-25-15 points. Giants won three of four series games; all four were decided by 14+ points- teams split two meetings here, with last one in ‘08. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-3 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC North underdogs are 2-9, 0-3 at home. Under is 5-2 in last seven Giant games, 3-0 in Browns’ last three games.

Seahawks (7-2-1) @ Buccaneers (5-5)— Seattle is on a roll, winning last three games by 6-7-11 points; they’re 2-2-1 on road, with wins 27-17 at Jets, 31-24 in Foxboro. Seahawks are +9 in turnovers over their last seven games, after being -5 in first three. Tampa Bay won its last two games; they’ve allowed 27+ points in all five losses- they’re 5-0 allowing less than 27. Bucs are 1-4 at home with only win over Chicago; their home losses are by 5-20-6-15 points. Tampa is 4-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, 1-2 at home. These teams came into NFL together in 1976. Bucs won three of last four series games; seven of last nine series games stayed under. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread, 2-2 on road; NFC South underdogs are 9-2, 2-1 at home.

Panthers (4-6) @ Raiders (8-2)— Short week for Oakland after win in Mexico City Monday; they’ve won/covered last four games, scoring 30 pts/game. Raiders are 2-2 at home this year, 1-2 as home favorites, with wins by 3-10 in Coliseum— they lost to Falcons/Chiefs. Panthers are 3-1 since their bye, with last three games all decided by exactly 3 points; Carolina is 1-3 on road, with losses by 1-15-3 points, and win in LA- this is first time they’ve been an underdog this season. Carolina is 3-2 in series games; four of five games were decided by 11+ points; they split two visits here, with last trip here in ‘08. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-7 vs spread; NFC South road underdogs are 7-1. Over is 8-2 in Oakland games; last three Panther games stayed under.

Chiefs (7-3) @ Broncos (7-3)— If playoffs started today, this would be AFC Wild Card game. Chiefs had 5-game win streak snapped at home LW; their last three games were all decided by 5 or less points. KC is 3-2 on road, 1-2 as road underdogs; favorites covered four of their five road games. Broncos won/covered four of five home games, with lone loss to Falcons; they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Denver won seven of last eight series games, winning three of last four played here, with wins by 35-10-7 points (Chiefs won 29-13 here LY), NFL-wide, home favorites are 15-16-1 vs spread in divisional games this season. Under is 8-1 in Chiefs’ last nine games, 5-2 in Denver’s last seven. Kansas City is +17 in turnovers in its seven wins; they were -1/-2/-1 in losses- they have only one win this year with negative turnover ratio.

Patriots (8-2) @ Jets (3-7)— New England is 8-2 in last ten series games, with both losses in OT; average total in last five series games, 48.2. Patriots are 3-2 in last five visits here; they won/covered all four road games since Brady came back, winning by 20-11-16-13 points, but Gronkowski won’t play here, Brady didn’t practice Wednesday. Fitzpatrick is back at QB for Jets after Petty played in 9-6 home loss to Rams; Jets are 2-5 vs spread in last seven post-bye games. NY is 1-3 at home, with win over Ravens; losses were by 1-10-3 points. Jets’ last three games were all decided by 4 or less points- they’re 2-5 as an underdog, 1-1 at home. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 11-5 vs spread this year in divisional games. Under is 4-1 in Patriot road games, 5-1 in Jets’ last six games.

Monday's game
Packers (4-6) @ Eagles (5-5)— Philly won/covered all four of its home games, winning by 14-31-11-9 points, but they’re 2-5 overall since a 3-0 start, averaging less than six yards/pass attempt in five of last six games. Green Bay lost its last four games, allowing 153 points, worst 4-game stretch for Packer defense since 1958 (year before Lombardi arrived). Pack lost its last four road games, by 3-1-22-18 points; this is also their third straight road game, a historically soft spot for NFL teams. Packers won four of last five series games, with last meeting a 53-20 beatdown at Lambeau in 2014- they won last two visits here, both in ‘10. NFC North non-divisional road dogs are 5-6 vs spread; NFC East home favorites are 7-2. Under is 4-0 in Eagle games this year; last four Green Bay games went over total.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 24 - Monday, November 28)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 24 - Monday, November 28)

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