NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 17 - Monday, November 19)

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 21

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football betting preview: Texans vs Raiders
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Surging Oakland entered its bye with a three-game winning streak punctuated by a 30-20 victory over reigning Super Bowl champion Denver.

Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders (-6, 45)

The NFL returns to Mexico City for the first time in 11 years when the Oakland Raiders square off against the Houston Texans on Monday night in a battle of AFC division leaders. While the Raiders are listed as the home team, they may not mind playing across the border since they are 5-0 away from Oakland this season.

“We kind of expect it to be like a road game for the offense and special teams and home game for the defense in that our crowd is going to be really loud,” Raiders coach Jack Del Rio told reporters. Surging Oakland entered its bye with a three-game winning streak punctuated by a 30-20 victory over reigning Super Bowl champion Denver. Houston posted its first road win of the season with a 24-21 triumph at Jacksonville to open a 1 1/2-game lead in the AFC South. The Texans, winners of two straight, had been outscored 85-22 in losing their first three away from home.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened the betting week as 5.5-point neutral site favorites and the public has bet them up slightly to their current number of -6. The total hit the betting board at 46.5 and has dropped down to 45 as of Sunday evening. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper-50's for Monday night's game in Mexico City. Wind should not be a factor and the POP is at 1 percent.

INJURY REPORT:

Texans - RB L. Miller (Probable, ankle), NT V. Wilfork (Probable, groin), CB A. Bouye (Probable, ankle), T D. Brown (Questionable, knee), T C. Clark (Questionable, hip), DE J. Clowney (Questionable, wrist), S E. Pleasant (Questionable, neck), LB J. Simon (Questionable, shoulder), LB B. Peters (Questionable, quadricep), WR W. Fuller (Questionable, leg), RB J. Grimes (Questionable, illness), WR J. Strong (Out, ankle), RB A. Blue (Out, calf), DE J. Watt (Out For Season, back).

Raiders - CB S. Smith (Probable, shoulder), WR A. Cooper (Probable, back), RB L. Murray (Probable, ankle), DT S. McGee (Questionable, ankle), G V. Alexander (Questionable, ankle), LB A. Smith (Out Indefinitely, suspension), DE M. Edwards (Questionable, hip).

ABOUT THE TEXANS (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U): Brock Osweiler threw for a pair of touchdowns but only 99 yards at Jacksonville and has registered only 416 passing yards over his last three games. With Osweiler continuing to struggle, Houston leaned on its running game to carry the offense as Lamar Miller, the team's other marquee free-agent signing, rushed for 83 yards to spark an attack that produced a season-high 181. DeAndre Hopkins had 111 receptions for 1,521 yards and 11 TDs last season, but he's been limited to 56 yards or fewer in seven of the nine games. The Texans rank fourth in total defense, giving up 317.4 yards per game.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 O/U): Oakland is averaging 31 points during its three-game winning streak and is 6-1 in its last seven, tying it with Kansas City for first place in the AFC West. Derek Carr has been the driving force for the offense with 17 scoring passes and three interceptions, but he played a supporting role against the Broncos. While Carr failed to throw a TD pass for the first time and finished with a season-low 184 yards, running back Latavius Murray rambled for 114 yards and three scores. Defensive end Khalil Mack has recorded two sacks in back-to-back games and a total of six in the last four contests, boosting his season total to seven.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
* Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Texans last 4 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games overall.

CONSENSUS: The favorite Raiders are picking 69 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 66 percent of the total action.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks this week in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Raiders -5.5 (430)

5) Buccaneers +7.5 (434)- W

4) Vikings even (400)- W

3) Titans +3 (509)- L

2) Dolphins -2.5 (516)- W

1) Ravens +7 (596)- L

season record: 20-44-2

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Colts 24, Titans 17— Indy led 21-0 19:35 into game, held on for dear life; they’ve now won 11 in row over the Titans and 24 of last 28. Tennessee lost its last nine visits here. Indy stays within 1.5 games of Texans in AFC South. Colts have now covered 10 of their last 12 post-bye games, eight in row when favored.

Lions 26, Jaguars 19— Detroit has still trailed every game this year in 4th quarter; all ten of their games were decided by 7 or less points- they actually covered this game on a late FG. Jax lost its last five games; in three games since changing OC’s, Jaguars lost by 5-3-7 points, scoring 18 pts/game while turning ball over nine times on 34 possessions.

Buccaneers 19, Chiefs 17— Tampa Bay is 4-1 on road, 1-4 at home; go figure- they converted 11-16 on 3rd down which is huge in a low scoring game. KC had won 18 of previous 21 games, but in their last three games, have scored three offensive TDs on 30 drives, with nine FGAs. Bucs outgained KC by 99 yards.

Giants 22, Bears 16— Chicago led 16-9 at half, never scored again. Big Blue’s seven wins are by total of 27 points; their biggest win was 17-10 over Rams in London, when one of their two TD’s was scored by defense. Only one of ten Giant games was decided by more than 7 points. Chicago lost five of last six games, is 0-6 on road, 1-4 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-14-6-16-26-6 points.

Vikings 30, Cardinals 24— Minnesota had TD on both defense/special teams, now has six such TDs this year; they snap 4-game skid, are 4-1 at home are tied for first with Lions in NFC North. Arizona allowed 28.5 pts/game in losing three of first four road games, with only win at SF; Cardinals turned ball over eight times in last three games, is 0-2-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less points.

Bills 16, Bengals 12— When Houston Texans were on Hard Knocks in 2015, Bill O’Brien said this to his team: “You’re a part of the most competitive business in the world.” There is such a fine line between winning/losing these games. One play, one bounce of the ball makes all the difference. Bengals are 1-4-1 in last six games and their season is in freefall.

Cowboys 27, Ravens 17— Baltimore had 136 penalty yards, Cowboys 45. Dallas won/covered nine games in row; Cowboys are 4-1 at home, 3-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 14-14-6-7 points, heading into a Thanksgiving game with their rivals from Washington. NFC East teams are now 16-7 vs spread outside their division. Meanwhile Joe Flacco is taking grief from former Ravens; we’re a fickle society.

Steelers 24, Browns 9— Not only is Cleveland terrible (outscored 70-17 in second half of last four games), they haven’t had their bye yet so they’re tired too. Browns are 1-6-1 vs spread in its last eight games; QB kessler got KO’d, so it is McCown’s turn to get pummeled. All five Steeler wins this year are by 8+ points (wins by 22-8-29-18-15 points).

Dolphins 14, Rams 10— On their first 11 drives, Miami ran 42 plays for 92 yards; they were totally inept. Trailing 10-0 with 6:40 left, they won game with drives of 77-75 yards on 15 plays (10.1 yards per play, with penalties added in). Dolphins have now won/covered five games in a row; playoff teams find a way to win, cruddy teams find a way to lose. Miami is only a game out of the Wild Card slot.

Patriots 30, 49ers 17— There were three 4:00 games Sunday; funny thing is, only one of the three were it didn’t rain was the game in Seattle. 49ers are now 6-20 since Jim Harbaugh took off for Michigan; they were 44-19-1 while he was with Niners. Maybe they should’ve kept him.

Seahawks 26, Eagles 15— Wilson looks like his old self (almost); speed of new RB Prosise (was WR in college) makes Seahawk offense lot more dangerous. Seattle is 5-0 at home this year, 2-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 2-19-2-6-11 points. Eagles lost five of last seven games after a 3-0 start; they lost last five road games, allowing 27.7 pts/game.

Redskins 42, Packers 24— Green Bay is in free fall, losing last four games while allowing 153 points, most they’ve allowed in any 4-game stretch since the year before Vince Lombardi came to Green Bay (1958)— Pack lost last four road games, by 3-1-22-18 points; their only road win was in opener at Jacksonville. Redskins are 6-1-1 in last eight games after an 0-2 start (two home losses).

Under is 11-2 in NFL games this weekend. There were 12 extra points missed yesterday; three of them in domes. Kicking is mental.