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**Udog** · 11-15-2016, 09:22 AM

NFL opening line report: Cowboys heavily favored over visiting Ravens in Week 11

Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott just keep getting it done for Dallas, and Week 10 was no exception.

Through 10 weeks of the NFL season, the team with the best record in the land is the one that lost its starting quarterback in the preseason. We talk about the Week 11 opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott just keep getting it done for Dallas, and Week 10 was no exception. The Cowboys (8-1 SU and ATS) scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes – on Elliott runs of 14 and 32 runs, sandwiched between a Pittsburgh TD – to pull out a riveting 35-30 victory as a 3-point road underdog.

Since dropping their season opener against the visiting New York Giants, the Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS, sitting not only atop the NFC, but the rest of the league after New England lost to Seattle on Sunday night.

Baltimore (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has posted back-to-back wins, both in division play, and now actually leads the muddled AFC North. The Ravens drubbed league doormat Cleveland 28-7 laying 7.5 points in the Week 10 Thursday nighter.

“The Cowboys are the hottest team in football, and they’re going to attract a ton of money in this game,” Childs said. “The Ravens, having played Thursday night, have what I like to call a ‘mini bye,’ giving them three days for extra rest and extra prep time. We opened the Cowboys a full touchdown favorite, and as expected, we’ve seen our fair share of Cowboys money. But not enough to move off the key number of 7, so we added 5 more cents of juice, going to -7 (-115).”

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Seattle just might be in its back-to-back Super Bowl seasons form. The Seahawks (6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) went into New England on Sunday night as a 7.5-point pup and came out with a 31-24 victory after making a goal-line stand in the final minute.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia might be recapturing some of its early-season magic. The Eagles (5-4 SU and ATS) snapped a 1-4 SU and ATS slide by handcuffing Atlanta’s potent offense in a 24-15 win laying 2 points at home.

“After a very impressive Sunday night win, we opened the Seahawks -6,” Childs said. “While the Eagles have played solid football this season, they’re a disappointing 1-4 both straight up and against the spread on the road. Seattle is arguably the loudest and toughest place to play for road teams. Throw in the Seahawks’ impressive win on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL on national TV, and I can see this line only going up.”

Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (-3)

Green Bay beat Washington in the wild-card round of the playoffs last year, but Aaron Rodgers and Co. return to D.C. looking nothing like the team that posted a 35-18 win getting 2 points. On Sunday at Tennessee, the Packers (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) gave up 35 first-half points in a 47-25 loss as a 3-point favorite.

Washington is trying to get in gear in the NFC playoff chase. The Redskins (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) topped Minnesota 26-20 as a 2.5-point home fave Sunday.

“No question, the Packers are the most disappointing team this season. For a team that had Super Bowl aspirations, they’re in a dogfight just to make the playoffs,” Childs said. “That said, they’ve been a bookmaker’s dream, because week in and week out, they’re taking action from the public and not getting the money. But this is flat out must win game for the Packers, against a team they dominated last year in the playoffs.

“The Redskins are off a very nice win over the Vikings, but playing in the ultra-competitive NFC East, this game is huge for them to keep pace for a wild-card spot. Throw in the fact that the ‘Skins face three straight road games after this game, and it’s almost a must-win home game for them.”

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)

Oakland is in unfamiliar territory for this time of year, tied atop the AFC West with Kansas City, and both those teams share the conference’s best record with New England. The Raiders (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) will be well-rested, coming off their bye week after stuffing defending Super Bowl champion Denver 30-20 as a 1-point chalk in Week 9.

Houston (6-3 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) maintained its lead in the lackluster AFC South by beating Jacksonville 24-21 catching 3 points on the road Sunday.

“The Raiders are coming off arguably their biggest win in franchise history in the past 10 years,” Childs said. “They beat the defending Super Bowl champs at home in a Sunday night prime-time game. They are playing with a ton of confidence, having won three straight and six of their last seven games.

“But the Texans are off a solid win on the road, albeit against a very bad Jags teams. It was Houston’s first road win of the season. We opened Raiders -5.5, and all the early action is on the Raiders, so we just went to -6 this morning.”

**Udog** · 11-15-2016, 09:23 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 17

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 5) at CAROLINA (3 - 6) - 11/17/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 61-39 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
CAROLINA is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 54-27 ATS (+24.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 20

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TENNESSEE (5 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 5) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 5-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 7) at DETROIT (5 - 4) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 2) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 60-36 ATS (+20.4 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (2 - 7) at NY GIANTS (6 - 3) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 35-60 ATS (-31.0 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 32-55 ATS (-28.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (4 - 4 - 1) at MINNESOTA (5 - 4) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 5) at CINCINNATI (3 - 5 - 1) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (5 - 4) at DALLAS (8 - 1) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DALLAS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 5) at CLEVELAND (0 - 10) - 11/20/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 97-69 ATS (+21.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (5 - 4) at LA RAMS (4 - 5) - 11/20/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 52-78 ATS (-33.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 175-217 ATS (-63.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 175-217 ATS (-63.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-86 ATS (-37.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 64-91 ATS (-36.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 8) - 11/20/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 229-185 ATS (+25.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 229-185 ATS (+25.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (5 - 4) at SEATTLE (6 - 2 - 1) - 11/20/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (4 - 5) at WASHINGTON (5 - 3 - 1) - 11/20/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 176-125 ATS (+38.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 66-40 ATS (+22.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 56-90 ATS (-43.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 21-44 ATS (-27.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 21

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HOUSTON (6 - 3) vs. OAKLAND (7 - 2) - 11/21/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-15-2016, 09:24 AM

NFL

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 17

8:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

Sunday, November 20

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. DALLAS
Baltimore is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Kansas City
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Indianapolis's last 23 games when playing Tennessee
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games
NY Giants are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home

4:05 PM
MIAMI vs. LOS ANGELES
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Los Angeles's last 21 games
Los Angeles is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. SAN FRANCISCO
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New England is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing New England
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. SEATTLE
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Seattle13-4-1 SU in its last 18 games
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. WASHINGTON
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Washington's last 14 games
Washington is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home

Monday, November 21

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. OAKLAND
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

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**Udog** · 11-15-2016, 01:23 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

Thurs – Nov. 17

New Orleans at Carolina, 8:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 47-29 OVER after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Carolina: 14-5 ATS in home games against conference opponents

Sun – Nov. 20

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 2-12 ATS versus division opponents
Indianapolis: 55-36 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5

Jacksonville at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 7-0 ATS in road games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
Detroit: 13-35 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4

Tampa Bay at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 10-2 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games
Kansas City: 40-61 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Chicago at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 1-7 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
New York: 63-40 ATS off a home win

Arizona at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
Arizona: 6-0 UNDER in dome games
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS as an underdog

Buffalo at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 11-2 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses
Cincinnati: 14-5 UNDER in the second half of the season

Baltimore at Dallas, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 32-17 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Dallas: 6-0 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 11-3 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
Cleveland: 1-8 ATS versus division opponents

Miami at Los Angeles, 4:05 PM ET
Miami: 34-17 UNDER after having won 4 out of their last 5
Los Angeles: 76-107 ATS after playing their last game on the road

New England at San Francisco, 4:25 PM ET
New England: 9-1 ATS after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored
San Francisco:

Philadelphia at Seattle, 4:25 PM ET
Philadelphia: 14-5 OVER in the second half of the season
Seattle: 21-8 ATS in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous

Green Bay at Washington, 8:30 PM ET
Green Bay: 32-16 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Washington: 39-66 ATS as a home favorite

Mon – Nov. 21

Houston at Oakland, 8:30 PM ET
Houston: 19-8 ATS in road games in November
Oakland: 6-17 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread

**Udog** · 11-15-2016, 02:32 PM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 11 NFL lines are going to move

The Chiefs have reeled off five straight wins and now share (with New England and Oakland) the best record in the AFC at 7-2.

Game to bet now

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (-7.5)

Looks like we’ve been sleeping on the Chiefs, who have reeled off five straight wins and now share (with New England and Oakland) the best record in the AFC at 7-2. Granted, those last four wins (New Orleans, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Carolina) have come against teams with a combined 13-23 record, but they all count. The Chiefs have this one more game against a mediocre opponent before running a Denver-Atlanta-Oakland gauntlet which will go a long way toward determining if they can stand up to the league’s iron. Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to string two wins together this season but remains in both the NFC South and playoff mixes in a muddled NFC. Betting is steady on both ends in this one and the line should remain stable barring any new injury reports or heavy one-way betting.

Game to wait on

Houston at Oakland (-5.5) (Monday night)

The AFC West is where the action is this season, where the Chiefs and Broncos now have to contend with the Raiders. The swag is definitely back in Oakland, where the Raiders are giving their fans plenty to remember in what may be their final year on the coast before moving to Las Vegas. Oakland has won three in a row, is coming off its biggest win in years (at home over Denver on Nov. 6), has had a bye week off to rest and get healthy, and has three more home games in a row. Houston, which is 6-3 but has been outscored by 188-161 this season, looks like the weakest division leader. The Texans had just enough gas to get by Jacksonville last week, but there is concern about Brock Osweiler, who was just 14 for 27 against the Jags and threw for only 99 yards.

Total to watch

Buffalo at Cincinnati (46.5)

At 4-5 the Bills look like they’re headed for another trip to Mediocreville, but there is one bright spot – namely, Buffalo has shown that it can score points on the road. In fact, the Bills have averaged nearly 27 points in their last three road games and are a solid 7-2 on the over this season. The semi-burst has allowed the Bills to move toward the middle of the pack in the league offensively, and bodes well for this Sunday’s game against the Bengals – who rank 24th in the league defensively. Over players have already bet this game up a point from its 46.5 open.

**Udog** · 11-15-2016, 02:34 PM

NFL Week 11 lines that make you go hmmm...

Books opened with the Cowboys as touchdown favorites versus the Ravens, but one Las Vegas oddsmaker doesn't agree with that spread.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 46)

This opener struck me as a little low from the onset, especially as it appears that Seattle may be reaching its preseason hype and potential after beating the New England Patriots this past week.

I made this number at the -7 mark, actually - no lower than -7 (-120), so I was surprised to see this a couple of plays below the key number. But I understand why it stands at -6. After their first road victory of the season against a lame Chicago team, the Eagles have lost four straight away from Philadelphia. To their credit they hung close in all four losses but playing in Seattle may be a bigger bite than they can chew.

Seattle’s results at home have not been by wide margins by any means and this too, definitely played into the early low number. But sometimes you can’t go by what was, and have to forecast that these two teams do not equate to their previous results. I see nothing but pay dirt for Seattle this week and do not fear a letdown after their big win in New England. I definitely see Seahawk money come kickoff so the play is early in the week for this one if you’re a Seattle backer.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)

If you haven’t noticed, the Chiefs are on a five-game win streak which has been driven by their defense. Allowing a tad over 15 points per game in the current skein, Kansas City is undefeated at home as well. I made this game closer to -8.5, bordering -9, as I am unimpressed with Tampa Bay’s slick 3-1 record on the road.

Add to that, that the Buccaneers last three wins overall have come against Carolina, San Francisco and Chicago – who have a combined 6-21 record. I’m missing something here that has the inferior team within a one-possession game.

The Chiefs have the incentive here as they are engaged with Oakland and Denver in the hotly contested AFC West. They also possess the playoff advantages in the division that they know can be lost in a moment’s notice.

We’re coming into the time where we will be playing the teams that are playing well, fighting for playoff positioning and playing in venues where victories are common, The Chiefs fit that bill in this one and we liken them to throw down the hammer here.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45)

Dallas has been living the dream this year but a closer look unveils a streak of excellent games against mediocre opponents. Though last week’s win over Pittsburgh is well noted, the emotional high of the quality game spells letdown against a sneaky-good team that possesses an excellent defense of their own.

Baltimore is 5-4 and leading its division. This is due to the Ravens’ defensive efforts throughout the season - a consistent resistance that has yielded scores of 20 or less in six of their nine games. Coming off two straight wins, including a win of their own over Pittsburgh just two weeks ago, tells me the Ravens can get the deal done this week. They may not win, but this looks like a closer game than what bookmakers are currently dealing. I made this game in the -6 range. I actually see a Baltimore +7.5 on the board so if you can grab it, do so.

This game appears to have opened at -6.5 at a scant few places before some early pops on the line lifted this up a little higher than what I think is achievable. This is not on the bookmakers as much as the early money drove this to unattainable levels. Maybe a set up? We’ll have to see where the money goes on game day. But for now, if you see the hook, take it. Just don’t miss out on the points before it goes below the key number.

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-6, 46)

My first instincts said this line was too low for the home favorite. I was mistaken with Houston this past week against Jacksonville and overvalued the Jaguars’ level of play and expectant result. But this is not a last-place 2-7 Jacksonville team. This is a first-place 7-2 Oakland team on the back side of two consecutive road games.

My gut call on this line was -7. But again, I realize why oddsmakers made this lower with what Houston has done to this point. All the more to our advantage if you like the Raiders as I do this week. Both teams beat Jacksonville away - Houston by three, Oakland by 17. But where Oakland really grabs my attention is its three-game win streak, the last being a 10-point win over Denver at home then a nice break this past week with the bye week.

A possible letdown game? I don’t think so only because this Raiders team has momentum and a chip on its shoulder. Kick in the fact the Silver and Black are in a close fight with Kansas City and the Broncos, all within a half-game of each other for the top spot in the West, I see the Raiders rolling in this one and collecting another feather in their helmet, beating another first-place team.

As far as where the money goes, I’m not as sure that Houston won’t have its backers so you might want to wait and see when the first crack in the line appears and go from there.

**Udog** · 11-17-2016, 09:35 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

Thursday, November 17

New Orleans @ Carolina

Game 309-310
November 17, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
127.765
Carolina
140.152
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 12 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Under

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Thursday's game
Saints (4-5) @ Panthers (3-6)— Favorites covered six of last seven Thursday night games. Both these teams suffered tough losses last week- NO lost on a blocked PAT, Panthers blew 17-6 lead with 12:00 to go. Carolina is 2-3 at home; four of their last five games overall were decided by exactly 3 points. Saints are 4-0 vs spread on road this season, 2-2 SU, with average total in those games, New Orleans (+2.5) won first meeting 41-38 in Superdome five weeks ago; Saints led 21-3 early on- Carolina tied game with 2:58 left but Lutz nailed 52-yard FG with 0:11 left for win. Carolina is 6-3 in last nine series games, winning three of last four played here. Underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Three of Saints’ last four games stayed under total.

NFL

Thursday, November 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting preview: Saints at Panthers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Newton has plenty of weapons at his disposal as he tries to exploit a Saints defense that is yielding an NFL fourth-worst 400.6 yards per contest.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 52)

The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers won't have long to stew following heart-wrenching defeats as the NFC South rivals tangle on Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. The Saints fell on the wrong end of history on Sunday when they saw an extra point returned for a defensive two-point conversion in a 25-23 setback to Denver while the Panthers let a 14-point fourth-quarter lead evaporate in a 20-17 loss to Kansas City.

"I think (the short turnaround is) a good thing because all you want to do is get back on the field as fast as you can," New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees said. Brees (NFL second-best 2,992 yards) torched Carolina in the first encounter, throwing for 465 yards and four touchdowns before rookie Wil Lutz drilled a 52-yard field goal with 11 seconds remaining in a 41-38 win on Oct. 16. Cam Newton had a strong performance in his own right with three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) against the Saints, but the reigning NFL MVP ignited the meltdown against the Chiefs as his ill-advised pass was intercepted by Eric Berry and returned 42 yards for a score. "What we've done is put our backs completely against the wall. There is no room for error now," coach Ron Rivera said of the cellar-dwelling Panthers, who are saddled with an 0-3 mark in the division.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 4-point home favorites and that line was bet down to -3 before recovering slightly to the current number of -3.5. The total hit the board at 51 and was bumped up a full point to 52 by Tuesday afternoon. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a perfect night for football at Bank Of America Stadium on Thursday night. Conditions are expected to be clear throughout the day with game-time temperatures in the mid-50's and barely a whisper of wind (1 mph).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both the Saints and Panthers look to recover off of demoralizing losses in week ten. Oddly enough the main reasoning behind the Panthers loss is a continuation of their earlier matchup against the Saints. They've been able to put together two halves of consistent football. Will the Saints find the same success on the road?"

INJURY REPORT:

Saints - S K. Vaccaro (Probable, possible suspension), RB D. Lasco (Questionable, hamstring), T T. Armstead (Questionable, leg), WR T. Lewis (Questionable, undisclosed), LB S. Anthony (Questionable, hamstring), CB D. Breaux (Questionable, leg), RB T. Cadet (Questionable, toe), LB D. Ellerbe (Questionable, quadricep), P T. Morstead (Questionable, ankle), DL D. Onyemata (Questionable, knee), OL A. Young (Questionable, undisclosed).

Panthers - C R. Kalil (Probable, shoulder), RB J. Stewart (Probable, undisclosed), LB S. Thompson (Questionable, knee), S C. Jones (Questionable, concussion), DT K. Love (Questionable, knee), C G. Gradkowski (Questionable, knee), LB A. Klein (Questionable, concussion), TE E. Dickson (Questionable, calf), T M. Oher (Out, concussion).

ABOUT THE SAINTS (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Brandin Cooks enjoyed a career day in his previous encounter with Carolina, highlighting his career-high 173-yard performance with an 87-yard touchdown. The lengthy score began a string of four touchdowns in the last five games for the 23-year-old Cooks, who leads the team with six TDs and 694 yards receiving. Fellow wideout Michael Thomas leads rookies in catches (51), receiving yards (613) and touchdown receptions (five), but was held to his lowest yardage total (40) on Sunday and also lost a pair of fumbles - his first two of the season. Willie Snead, a former member of the Panthers' practice squad, had two touchdowns on Sunday, marking the first time he reached the end zone since the first two weeks of the season.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (3-6 SU, 2-6-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Newton has plenty of weapons at his disposal as he tries to exploit a Saints defense that is yielding an NFL fourth-worst 400.6 yards per contest. Kelvin Benjamin looks to atone after his costly fumble led to the Chiefs' game-winning field goal with another strong outing versus New Orleans, against which he reeled in eight receptions on 14 targets in the first meeting. Fellow wideout Devin Funchess had a touchdown reception on Sunday against Kansas City and also had a 17-yard catch for a score in the first encounter with the Saints. Greg Olsen had six catches for 94 yards in the first meeting with New Orleans and leads all tight ends with 50 receptions and 712 yards receiving.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 8-0 in Saints last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road team underdog New Orleans Saints are picking up 62 percent of the point spread action and Over is grabbing 75 percent of the totals wagers.

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**Udog** · 11-17-2016, 04:19 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

Sunday, November 20

Green Bay @ Washington

Game 473-474
November 20, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
130.990
Washington
130.304
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 1
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3
50
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3); Over

Philadelphia @ Seattle

Game 471-472
November 20, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
135.526
Seattle
143.982
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6
44
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-6); Under

New England @ San Francisco

Game 469-470
November 20, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
139.717
San Francisco
123.303
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 16 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 13
50 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-13); Over

Miami @ Los Angeles

Game 467-468
November 20, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
135.169
Los Angeles
131.120
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 4
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 1 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-1 1/2); Under

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Game 465-466
November 20, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
126.897
Cleveland
126.033
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 9
48
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+9); Over

Baltimore @ Dallas

Game 463-464
November 20, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
130.898
Dallas
142.434
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 11 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-7); Under

Buffalo @ Cincinnati

Game 461-462
November 20, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
135.546
Cincinnati
132.890
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 2 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Over

Arizona @ Minnesota

Game 459-460
November 20, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
129.998
Minnesota
133.201
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
Pick
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
Under

Chicago @ NY Giants

Game 457-458
November 20, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
127.924
NY Giants
130.956
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 3
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7 1/2); Over

Tampa Bay @ Kansas City

Game 455-456
November 20, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
132.658
Kansas City
137.425
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 7 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+7 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Detroit

Game 453-454
November 20, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
123.731
Detroit
134.886
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 11
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 6 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-6 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Indianapolis

Game 451-452
November 20, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.262
Indianapolis
132.130
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 1
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+3); Over

Monday, November 21

Houston @ Oakland

Game 475-476
November 21, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
129.236
Oakland
137.757
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 8 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 5 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-5 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-17-2016, 04:19 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Sunday's games
Titans (5-5) @ Colts (4-5)— Indy (+2.5) won first meeting 34-26 in Music City, scoring two TDs in 0:08 span after 2:00 warning- it was their 10th win in row over Titans (23-4 in last 27). Tennessee lost its last eight visits here. Titans are 2-2 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing by 7 in Houston, 8 in San Diego, with wins at Detroit/Miami. In last three games, Tennessee averaged 12.2/7.3/9.8 yards/pass attempt- they’ve averaged 32 pts/game in their last six games. Colts are 2-2 at home, beating Bears by 6, Chargers by 4; they’re 0-3 this season when scoring less than 26 points. Last seven Tennessee games went over total; average total in their last five games is 53.7- over is 7-2 in Indy games. Colts covered nine of their last 11 post-bye games, seven in row when favored.

Jaguars (2-7) @ Lions (5-4)— Hard to lay 7 points with Detroit when they’ve trailed every game this year in 4th quarter; all nine of their games were decided by 7 or less points. Detroit is 3-1 at home, 1-2 as home favorite, with wins by 1-3-3 points and loss to Tennessee. Jax lost its last four games; in two games since changing OC’s, Jaguars lost by 5-3 points, scoring 17.5 pts/game while turning ball over six times on 21 possessions. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-10 vs spread, 3-6 at home. AFC South road dogs are 4-5 vs spread. Jags won three of five series games, only one of which was decided by less than 5 points- teams split two meetings here. Detroit won its last four post-bye games, covered nine of last 12. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; Detroit’s last three games stayed under.

Buccaneers (4-5) @ Chiefs (7-2)— KC is 7-2 this year, 18-3 in its last 21 games but in their last two games, both wins, Chiefs scored one offensive TD on 22 drives, with eight FGAs. Chiefs have two wins this year when they trailed by 14+ in 4th quarter, only two games like that in NFL this year. KC is 4-0 at home this year but 1-3 as home favorite, winning at Arrowhead by 6-21-6-5 points- three of their last four wins are by 6 or less points. Tampa Bay scored 30.5 pts/game in splitting its last four games; Bucs are 3-1 on road, 1-1 as road dog, with only loss 40-7 at Arizona in Week 2- they won at Atlanta/Carolina. NFC South non-divisional road underdogs are 6-1 vs spread; AFC West home favorites are 5-6. Bucs’ last four games went over total; Chiefs’ last five games stayed under.

Bears (2-7) @ Giants (6-3)— Big Blue’s six wins are by total of 21 points; their biggest win was 17-10 over Rams in London, when one of their two TD’s was scored by defense. Only one of nine giant games was decided by more than 7 points. New York is 4-1 SU at home, 1-3 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-4-1-5 points, with loss to Washington. Bears ran 12 plays for minus-13 yards in second half at Tampa LW; Chicago lost four of last five games, is 0-5 on road, 0-4 as a road dog, losing away games by 9-14-6-16-26 points. There was lot of talk Monday that Cutler could on way out of Chicago soon. Teams split last six series games, with last one in ’13. Bears won three of last four visits here, but last one was six years ago. Under is 6-3 in Giant games, 3-1 in last four Chicago games.

Cardinals (4-4-1) @ Vikings (5-4)— Minnesota is in freefall, losing last four games after a 5-0 start. Vikings are 3-1 in their new stadium, with only loss in OT to Lions. Arizona allowed 28 pts/game in losing two of first three road games, with only win at SF; Cardinals turned ball over six times in last two games, is 0-1-1 this year in games with spread of 3 or less points. Minnesota is 5-2 in last seven games of a series where home team won last five meetings; Arizona beat them 23-20 LY in desert, thanks to +3 TO ratio. Cardinals lost last eight visits to Twin Cities, with last win here in ’77. NFC North teams are 9-15 vs spread outside the division; NFC West teams are 7-13. Three of last four Arizona games stayed under total; under is 7-2 in Viking games. This is only second game this year on artificial turf for the Cardinals (lost 33-18 in Buffalo).

Bills (4-5) @ Bengals (3-5-1)— Short week for Cincy after tough 21-20 loss to Giants Monday; Bengals are 1-3-1 in last five games, 2-1 as home favorites this year, winning by 15-14 points after a loss to Denver. Buffalo lost five of last seven post-bye games; they were favored in four of them. Bills allowed 100 points in losing last three games- they’re 2-3 on road, with wins vs QB’s Keenum/Brissett- their last three road games went over. Buffalo is 1-3 this season in games with spread of 3 or less points; Bengals are 1-3-1 in such games. Home side lost five of last seven series games; Bills won four of last five visits here, but Cincy won last three meetings overall, by 3-3-13 points. Over is 7-1 in last eight Buffalo, 3-1 in last four Bengal games. Buffalo is 0-4 this season in games decided by six or less points.

Ravens (5-4) @ Cowboys (8-1)— Dallas won/covered eight games in row; Romo may dress as a backup here, but QB Prescott is the man for Cowboys now. Pokes are 3-1 at home, 2-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 14-14-6 points, with loss to Giants in Week 1. Ravens are 2-2 on road, beating Jax/Browns; both their road losses were in Swamp Stadium (0-2 as a road underdog this year). None of Baltimore’s eight losses are by more than 8 points. Baltimore won last five series games; last time Dallas beat them was in ’91, when Ravens were the Cleveland Browns. AFC North teams are 4-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games. NFC East teams are 15-5 vs spread outside the division, 9-2 at home. Under is 4-1 in Ravens’ last five games, 1-3 in Cowboys’ last four.

Steelers (4-5) @ Browns (0-10)— Not only is Cleveland terrible (outscored 60-8 in second half of last three games), they haven’t had their bye yet so they’re tired too. Browns lost six of last seven games with Pittsburgh, losing 30-9/28-12 LY; Steelers won five of last six visits here, with three of five wins by 16+ points. Cleveland is 1-5-1 vs spread in its last seven games; 1-2-1 as home underdogs, losing home tilts by 5-20-3-25 points. Pitt lost its last four games, allowing 28 pts/game; Steelers lost last three road games, scoring four TD’s on 35 drives while scoring 10.7 pts/game. One thing though; all four Steeler wins this year are by 8+ points (wins by 22-8-29-18 points); they’re 0-3 in games decided by less than eight points. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 11-4 vs spread this season.

Dolphins (5-4) @ Rams (4-5)— Rookie QB Goff gets his first NFL start here, vs Dolphin defense that picked Rivers off four times in 4th quarter alone LW in San Diego. Miami won/covered its last four games, scoring 29 pts/game; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win in San Diego- they scored TD on defense/special teams in three of last five games. Bar has been set low for Goff; on their last 32 drives, LA scored one TD- they didn’t score a TD in two of their four wins this year. Rams are 1-2 in Coliseum, scoring 12.7 pts/game (two TDs on 31 drives). Miami is 10-2 in last 12 games against the Rams, winning last three; last series win for Rams was in 2001. Fish are 5-1 vs Rams in LA/St Louis. Major question in this game is if Goff’s presence will take a defender out of box, open up more running lanes for Gurley.

Patriots (7-2) @ 49ers (1-8)— Over last nine years, NE is 14-8 vs spread coming off a loss as a favorite. Brady comes home to play here, but Gronkowski may not play after lung was injured in Seattle game. New England is 4-0 on road this year, 3-0 as road favorite, winning on foreign soil by 2-20-11-16 points. 49ers lost last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they’re 1-4 as a home underdog this year, losing last four home tilts by 7-12-17-18 points. Patriots won last visit to SF 30-21 in 2008, their only win in five road games vs 49ers; they won three of last four games with Niners, after losing seven of first eight. AFC East teams are 6-3 as a non-divisional favorite; NFC West teams are 3-7 as an underdog, 0-4 at home. Over is 6-2 in Niners’ last eight games, 3-1 in Patriots’ last four.

Eagles (5-4) @ Seahawks (6-2-1)— Seattle got big win in Foxboro last week, could have letdown here. Seahawks are 4-0 at home this year, 1-3 as home favorites, winning at home by 2-19-2-6 points. Eagles lost four of last six games after a 3-0 start; they lost last four road games, allowing 28 pts/game but had strong defensive effort in 24-15 home win over Falcons LW. Philly is 4-2 vs spread as an underdog this year. Home side lost seven of last eight series games; Seattle won four of last five meetings. Philly is 5-3 in Seattle, but hasn’t been here since 2011. NFC West teams are 7-13 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC East teams are 15-5. Over is 4-2 in Eagles’ last six games, 5-2 in Seattle’s last seven. Seahawk opponents converted 27 of last 42 on third down, not good.

Packers (4-5) @ Redskins (5-3-1)— Green Bay is in free fall, losing last three games while allowing 111 points- they were down 35-10 in 2nd quarter in Nashville LW. Pack lost last three road games, by 3-1-22 points; their only road win was in opener at Jackaonville. Green Bay is 1-0 as an underdog this year. Redskins are 5-1-1 in last seven games after an 0-2 start (two home losses); they’re 2-1 as a home favorite, winning home games by 11-7-6 points. Washington is 30-57 on 3rd down in its last four games, helping improve field position. Packers won six of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, including a 35-18 win in a playoff game LY. Over is 7-2 in Washington games, 3-0 in Packers’ last three. NFC North teams are 5-9 vs spread in non-divisional road games.

Monday's game
Texans (6-3) vs Raiders (7-2) (in Mexico City)— Oakland won six of last seven games, covered last three, scoring 93 points (10 TDs on last 37 drives). Raiders ran ball for 163.3 yds/game last three games- both their losses this year came at home. Texans got first road win in Jacksonville last week; they’re 1-3 away from home, with all three losses by 18+ points- they’re 2-2 as an underdog this year. Oakland is 7-2 despite being favored in only three of nine games (1-2 as a favorite). Houston won six of last nine series games. Raiders are 2-11 in last 13 post-bye games but they covered last four. AFC South teams are 6-8 as non-divisional underdogs; AFC West teams are 8-6 as non-divisional favorites. Over is 7-2 in Oakland games, 4-2 in Houston’s last six games.

**Udog** · 11-18-2016, 07:39 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11

The Titans have been an above-average team at getting to the QB this season, ranking 10th in sack rate at 6.76 percent.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 52)

Titans' sack-happy ways vs. Colts' QB protection issues

Second place in the AFC North is up for grabs Sunday afternoon as the Titans' improving defense meets Andrew Luck and the high-octane Colts in Indianapolis. This game could very well be decided by how well Indianapolis can protect its franchise quarterback - and judging by the sack stats through the first 10 weeks of the season, Luck might find himself on the run - or worse, on his back - a healthy number of times.

The Titans have been an above-average team at getting to the QB this season, ranking 10th in sack rate at 6.76 percent. Veteran linebackers Brian Orakpo and Derrick Morgan led the way in that regard, combining for 15.5 sacks and 114 sack yards lost. And when it comes to pressuring quarterbacks in hostile territory, Tennessee is even better - recording the third-best road sack rate (8.57 percent) in the league.

Meanwhile, the Colts may possess one of the most dangerous offensive attacks in football, but keeping Luck upright has been a legitimate problem so far in 2016. Indianapolis has the highest sack rate against in the league at 8.68 percent; Indianapolis has yielded 33 sacks through the first 10 games, even after limiting Tennessee to just two in a 34-26 win over the Titans back on Oct. 24. Things should be much tougher for Luck and the Colts this time around.

Daily fantasy watch: Tennessee D/ST

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 40.5)

Dolphins' red-zone stinginess vs. Rams' lack of scoring chances

Don't look now, but the Dolphins have rekindled their fading playoff hopes on the strength of a four-game winning streak that has surged them above the .500 mark for the season. At the same time, the Los Angeles Rams are clinging to postseason hopes by a thread despite escaping with a thrilling 9-6 win over the New York Jets last week. The Rams have struggled getting into the red zone all season, and things don't get any easier this weekend.

Much of the attention for the Miami resurgence has fallen on running back Jay Ajayi, but the Dolphins' defense deserves just as much credit - if not more. Miami enters the week ranked sixth in the NFL in fewest red-zone visits allowed per game at just 2.9; only Baltimore, Arizona, Minnesota, Green Bay and the Jets have been stingier. It's a modest improvement from the 2015 campaign, when the Dolphins allowed 3.1 opponent red-zone visits per game.

As for the Rams, well, they're about as bad as you would expect them to be given their widespread scoring troubles. Los Angeles is tied with the Ravens for the fewest red-zone scoring chances per game at 2.3; the Cleveland Browns are the only other team below 2.5. And if you can believe it, that rate is actually better than what the Rams put up in their last season in St. Louis, when they made just 2.2 red-zone visits per game. Ugh.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Todd Gurley

Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (-5.5, 46)

Texans' interior D-line troubles vs. Raiders' stacked O-line

The Raiders find themselves in a three-horse race atop the AFC West in what has shaped up as the best division race in the league. Coming into the week tied with the Kansas City Chiefs and a half-game ahead of the Denver Broncos, Oakland faces a stiff test in Week 11 against a Texans team that has the outright lead in the AFC South. But the Raiders have an enormous advantage it will look to exploit against visiting Houston this weekend.

Oakland has built one of the most impressive offensive lines in the game, a group that deserves much of the credit for the successes of quarterback Derek Carr, running back Latavius Murray and receivers Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Three of the team's five starting O-linemen - LT Donald Penn, LG Kelechi Osemele and C Rodney Hudson - have Pro Football Focus grades of 84.8 or better. Simply put, the left side of the Raiders' offensive line is second only to the Dallas Cowboys' front.

Houston has elite ends to counter the Oakland periphery - DRE Jadeveon Clowney (79.2 PFF grade) and DLE Whitney Mercilus (83.9) are certainly capable of pressuring the quarterback. But the interior duo of DRT Vince Wilfork (45.7) and DLT Christian Covington (42.3) is among the worst in the league, and could make things incredibly difficult for the Texans' next level of defense, particularly against Oakland's stout rush attack.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Latavius Murray

**Udog** · 11-19-2016, 10:15 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 20

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NFL Underdogs: Week 11 pointspread picks and predictions
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Titans QB Marcus Mariota is completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, to go along with a crazy good 122.1 passer rating.

I turned 30 this week.

I suppose that means I should start to realize that my dream of making the NBA as the second coming of Steve Nash is finally dead.

Seriously though, turning 30 years old didn’t really bother me the way I had seen it affect others. Maybe that has something to with the fact I was thrown a killer surprise party by my girlfriend, complete with oyster shucking and martini bar.

Or maybe, it’s because I got a great birthday present from the gambling gods, with my underdog picks going 3-0 SU and ATS on my big Three-Ohhh.

Considering dogs went 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS last week, I would have felt pretty terrible if I couldn’t nail down at least three of them. So, kind of like a surprise party you had a feeling was coming, while not completely unexpected, the results are more than welcome.

Not as surprising, is how bad the AFC South has been this season.

The Tennessee Titans, at 5-5, are still in contention for the division title and sit in second place behind the 6-3 Houston Texans. They face a critical road game at 4-5 Indianapolis, one the Titans need to win if they want to keep pace.

Tennessee has won four of its last six games thanks to two things: running the football and the meteoric rise of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota.

While it should be noted one of those losses was a 34-26 defeat as 4-point home favorites at the hands of the Colts, Mariota has been tremendous during that six-game stretch. He's completing 69.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, to go along with a crazy good 122.1 passer rating.

Meanwhile, DeMarco Murray is enjoying Music City, giving the Titans the league’s third-best rush offense at 145.2 yards per game. He should continue to roll this week, matching up against a Colts rush defense that gives up 114.9 yards per game.

Let’s not forget the Titans rank fifth in the NFL in sacks with 26 and go against a brutal Colts offense line that has left Andrew Luck battered, allowing a NFL worst 33 sacks this season.

I think the Titans continue to surprise this week. Try to look shocked when they cover.

Pick: Titans +3

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

These teams are mirror images of each other and not in a good way. Both were considered NFC contenders, have top-ranked defenses, and are currently struggling.

After starting the season a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS, the Vikings have dropped four in a row both SU and ATS, scoring just 14 points per game in the process.

They rank dead last in total offense and rushing yards, which seems insane when we are talking about the Vikings, but that’s what happens when you lose several offense lineman to injury. Oh, and that Adrian Peterson guy is missed pretty sorely right about now.

Meanwhile, although Arizona is coming off a win, it was an uninspiring 23-20 home victory over a San Francisco squad that was a 13.5-point dog and is just 1-1-1 SU and 0-3 ATS in the last three games.

So while this appears to be an even matchup in the futility department, I have a little more faith in the Cardinals, mainly because their problems seem fixable.

Arizona’s big issue this season has been turnovers. The Cardinals rank seventh in total offense, but 20th in points per game at 22.4. With all other things being equal, the Cardinals have the much better offense and if they can hold on to the ball, they not only cover but win outright.

Pick: Cardinals +2.5

Green Bay Packers (+3) at Washington

Talk about not seeing it coming. The Green Bay Packers' struggles could be the stunner of the season so far.

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t look like the quarterback we all know, there's been a revolving door of running backs in Green Bay, and the Packers have lost three in row, allowing 37 points per game in that stretch. They're going up against the fourth-ranked offense in the NFL Sunday night. Did I mention they head into Washington, which has revenge on its mind after the Packers knocked the Redskins out of the playoffs last season? No. Well, there's that too.

Yet I still like the Packers. Surprise!

This is mostly a “can they actually be that bad?” play, plus I think Rodgers wants to show everyone he’s still got it on national television.

Pick: Packers +3

Last Week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 18-11-1 ATS (62%)

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**Udog** · 11-19-2016, 10:50 PM

Essential Week 11 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Seahawks have been bet from the opening number of -4.5 to the current number of -6.5 for Sunday's NFC showdown with the Eagles.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (7.5, 44.5)

* A date with Cleveland couldn't come at a better time for reeling Pittsburgh, which also has lost three in a row on the road and plays four of its next five away from home. While Ben Roethlisberger and the offense managed to get untracked in last week's 35-30 home loss, the defense permitted the Cowboys to put together a pair of late 75-yard touchdown drives. Frustrated by his team's inability to stop the opposition, coach Mike Tomlin is taking what appears to be a desperate measure by moving veteran linebacker James Harrison into the starting lineup. Harrison was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year in 2008, but he's now 38 years old, already has come out of retirement once and has made only 19 tackles on the season.

* For a team that has featured an NFL-high 26 different starting quarterbacks since 1999, it hardly comes as a surprise that first-year coach Hue Jackson has had a revolving door under center. Jackson made a surprise move last week, pulling rookie Cody Kessler in the third quarter in favor of veteran Josh McCown with the Browns trailing by six points, but he is turning back to third-round pick Kessler to face Pittsburgh. "I came here ... to solve this quarterback issue that's been here," Jackson told reporters Thursday. "Is the guy on our roster now? We're going to find that out." Jackson also needs to solve major issues on his defense, which is yielding 30.1 points and 419.1 yards -- ranking 31st in each category.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened this AFC North battle as 9-point road favorites and that number has dropped to 7.5. The total opened at 49.5 and as of Saturday morning has been bet down 5 points to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
* Under is 7-1 in Steelers last 8 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Browns last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45)

* Baltimore's top-ranked run defense will take aim at rookie Ezekiel Elliott and Dallas' offensive line after holding the Steelers (36 yards on 18 carries) and Browns (33 on 13) to 2.2 yards per carry. Quarterback Joe Flacco is taking more chances down the field under new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg and averaged 7.56 yards per attempt in the last two games while throwing four touchdown passes. Receiver Breshad Perriman helped in the deep passing game by recording 64 yards on three catches, including a 27-yard TD, against Cleveland.

* Elliott leads the NFL with 1,005 rushing yards and piled up 114 and two TDs on the ground while adding 95 receiving yards and another score in last week's win. The Ohio State product already went up against three of the top 11 run defenses in the league (Green Bay, New York Giants and Chicago) and totaled 348 rushing yards in those contests. Prescott is playing mistake-free football with 14 TD passes and two interceptions but is not being overly conservative while averaging 8.35 yards per attempt.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened the game between divisional leaders as 7-point home favorites and the total at 45. Bettors appear to be happy with both numbers as neither number has moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Ravens last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47.5)

* T.J.Yeldon leads the rushing game with a paltry 285 yards on 79 carries and has combined with newcomer Chris Ivory for just two rushing scores on the season. Bortles, who broke franchise records with over 4,400 yards and 35 touchdowns last season, threw a pick-six on the opening drive of the Jags' 24-21 loss to Houston last week, the third time this season he's thrown an interception on Jacksonville's first possession. Look for defensive back Jalen Ramsey, who has become a clear favorite in the race for defensive rookie of the year while shutting down a litany of star receivers throughout his first season, to shadow Detroit's Marvin Jones.

* Stafford, completing 67.3 percent of his passes on the season, continues to be one of the league's best at directing come-from-behind wins -- all five of Detroit's victories have been the result of game-deciding drives by Stafford. Since 2011, Stafford has 23 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter and he reportedly is looking to parlay that success into a $25 million deal at year's end. The Lions have been fairly stingy on defense, allowing 22.9 points a game, (14th in league). Top linebacker DeAndre Levy, who has battled several leg injuries, was back at practice but he is still listed as doubtful to make his first return since Week 1.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened the week as 6.5-point home favorites and were briefly faded down to 6 mid-week before rising back to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and has inched up half point late in the week to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 52.5)

* The maturation of second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota - who has benefited from the addition of running back DeMarco Murray -has been the story for Tennessee’s flourishing offense. Mariota has passed for 21 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and he and Murray head the league’s third-ranked rushing attack. The Titans have struggled to stop the pass recently, allowing 300 or more yards through the air in four of the last five games - including a season-high 341 in a 34-26 loss to the Colts in Week 7.

* Indianapolis has reasonable balance on offense, with running back Frank Gore putting together a decent season and Andrew Luck throwing far fewer interceptions than a year ago. The Colts have had difficulty keeping Luck upright, however, as he has been sacked 33 times - a concern against a Titans team with 28 sacks to its credit. Indianapolis’ downfall has been its defense, which ranks 31st against the pass and 22nd versus the run while forcing only eight turnovers - fifth-fewest in the league.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened the week as 3-point home favorites against their divisional rival and that number held before fading half point to 2.5 Friday afternoon. The total opened at 53 and quickly dropped to 52 Sunday evening and held most of the week before returning to 53 Friday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Colts are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Titans last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
* Titans are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 47)

* Tyrod Taylor leads all NFL quarterbacks with 362 yards on the ground and is the only signal-caller with at least 4,500 yards passing (4,804) and 900 rushing (930) since the start of 2015. Linebacker Lorenzo Alexander is tied for the league lead with 10 sacks while wide receiver Marquise Goodwin ranks fifth with an average of 18.8 yards per catch. The Bills are 16-11 in games following their bye week, but Rex Ryan is just 2-6 in such contests during his career as a head coach.

* Linebacker Rey Maualuga (fibula) also was a full participant in practice on Thursday after missing Monday's loss to the New York Giants. A run specialist, he would be a welcome addition to the lineup on Sunday as Buffalo ranks second in the league in rushing offense (155 yards). Jeremy Hill has scored three touchdowns on the ground in as many games and ranks second in the league since 2014 with 26 rushing scores.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened up as 3-point home favorites and that was quickly bet down half point to 2.5 and that number has held firm since Monday. The total opened at 47 and remained there all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.
* Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Bengals are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44.5)

* Tampa Bay scored a season-high 36 points against the Bears thanks to four takeaways – a common theme in the team’s success. The Buccaneers have forced 11 turnovers in their four wins and just four in their five defeats. The running game has been practically non-existent in the last two games, and quarterback Jameis Winston could use some help on the ground against a tough pass rush and secondary.

* The Chiefs’ offense has foundered over the last two weeks, but the defense has made up for it by continuing to force turnovers as an impressive rate. Kansas City leads the league with 22 takeaways, including at least two in each of its five straight wins. Smith rarely puts up flashy numbers, but he continues to get the job done as he has recorded eight touchdown passes against three interceptions, while Spencer Ware has been effective both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened the week as 7.5-point home favorites and that number has remained all week. The total opened at 44.5 and like the spread remains fine the bettors and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
* Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 40)

* David Johnson was limited to 55 yards on 19 carries last week but gained 46 on five receptions to become the first player since Indianapolis' Edgerrin James in 2005 to record 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his team's first nine games. The product of Northern Iowa ranks second in the league with 1,213 scrimmage yards and is one of three players in NFL history (Gale Sayers and Abner Haynes) to record 15 rushing touchdowns, five receiving scores and a kickoff-return TD in his first two seasons. Carson Palmer, who has eclipsed 300 passing yards in three straight contests, has thrown for seven touchdowns with just one interception in four career games against Minnesota.

* Sam Bradford has excelled at home this season, throwing six touchdown passes without an interception while posting a 111.3 rating in four games. The Vikings changed kickers this week, releasing Blair Walsh and signing Kai Forbath, who split last season between Washington and New Orleans. Stefon Diggs had 13 receptions for 164 yards against the Redskins after making 13 catches for 80 yards versus Detroit in Week 9, becoming the first player in NFL history with at least 13 catches in consecutive games.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, the bettors have spoken and as of Saturday morning the Vikings are 2.5-point favorites at home. The total opened at 41.5 and has been faded all the way to 40. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Cardinals last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 9-1 in Vikings last 10 games following a ATS loss.
* Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-7.5, 43)

* Chicago's difficult season got even worse this week after wideout Alshon Jeffery was suspended four games for performance-enhancing drugs, with Cutler likely turning to tight end Zach Miller (team-leading 44 receptions) as the focus of the passing game. Jordan Howard recorded his fourth 100-yard rushing performance on Sunday, one shy of the franchise record for a rookie (Beattie Feathers in 1934, Rashaan Salaam in 1995). Linebacker Pernell McPhee promised to get Manning dirty as the Bears are eighth in the league with sacks (24) while the Giants' quarterback has only been dropped 12 times in 350 passing attempts. "I don't care what everybody else did. We (are) gonna sack him. ... I'm gonna make sure of that," McPhee said.

* The dust barely settled after New York eked out a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati on Monday when Beckham boasted greater heights for his ascending team. "We're really looking forward to Feb. 5 in Houston,” said Beckham, who has been feeling good with six touchdowns in his last five games after being held out of the end zone in his previous four. "That's the goal, obviously. I probably said that the past two or three years since I’ve been in the league. I feel real confident in this team." Veteran Rashad Jennings ran for 87 of his team's 122 yards to help New York's 31st-ranked rushing attack get untracked on Monday, but Chicago's defense (11th-ranked) should provide a tougher test.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as 7.5-point home favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been inching down all week to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (2, 39.5)

* Much-maligned quarterback Ryan Tannehill has not recorded a single turnover during Miami's winning streak after committing nine (seven interceptions, two fumbles) in the first five games. "I think that's the biggest thing for us right (now), is taking care of the football (and) not giving the other team opportunities with good field position and keeping ourselves in the right spot," Tannehill said of the Dolphins, who are plus-8 in turnovers during the winning streak. Tailback Jay Ajayi has rushed for 608 yards and four touchdowns during that stretch, but saw his string of 100-yard performances stopped at three after being limited to just 79 versus San Diego.

* One man's opportunity led to another's misery as Keenam approached the podium on Wednesday with a frown and told reporters he "wasn't happy" with coach Jeff Fisher's decision. With the team's passing game stuck in neutral, running back Todd Gurley has faced stacked boxes and is mustering a disappointing 3.1 yards per carry. The second-year back failed to reach the end zone for the seventh time in nine games during Los Angeles' 9-6 victory over the Jets on Sunday and faces a Miami team that has limited New York and San Diego to 100 yards on 33 carries over the last six quarters.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened as a PK, quickly to the Rams as 1-point home favorite and bettors quickly jumped all over the road team bumping that line to Dolphins +2. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet down a full point to 39.5 Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Rams are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Rams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (11, 51)

* Even if Gronkowski is able to play, which appears increasingly unlikely, Brady still has the luxury of throwing to backup tight end Martellus Bennett, who made seven catches for 102 yards against Seattle. “Look, I’ve started the majority of my career," Bennett, who has three 100-yard performances this season, told reporters. "Starting in a football game is just football. It doesn’t matter how I play or when I play. It’s just the same thing.” New England also will feature a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount, who rushed for 69 yards and three touchdowns while having over 20 carries for the fifth time this season. The Patriots yield 18.1 points per game despite ranking in the bottom-third in sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions.

* San Francisco showed some moxie in ending a string of four straight blowouts by erasing an early 14-point deficit and clawing back from 10 down in the second half against Arizona. Carlos Hyde, who rushed for six touchdowns in the first five games, returned to the lineup after missing two contests with a shoulder injury but was limited to 14 yards on 13 carries. Colin Kaepernick has rushed for as least 55 yards in three of his four outings since replacing Blaine Gabbert as the starter, but he could be without deep threat Torrey Smith (shoulder), who was limited in practice Thursday. The 49ers rank last in the NFL in total yards (429.7) and rushing yards (180.4) allowed.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as massive 13.5-point road favorites and the line has steadily been fading to the current number of 11. The total opened at 51.5 and dropped as low as 50.5 before settling at 51. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 11.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 road games.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 42.5)

* The Philadelphia backfield is a confusing one to label, yet both veteran Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews are making their mark in distinctly different ways. Sproles remains a threat in the passing game with eight receptions last week and Mathews rushed for a season-high 109 yards and scored twice to increase his touchdown total to four in his last three contests. Jordan Matthews, who is nursing back spasms, has been the lone consistent Eagles wideout with 23 catches for 216 yards in his last three games.

* With Thomas Rawls (fibula) expected to return on Sunday and rookie C.J. Prosise turning heads by recording a career-high 153 yards from scrimmage (66 rushing, 87 receiving) versus the Patriots, Seattle opted to end Christine Michael's second stint with the club by waiving him this week. Prosise's dominating performance notwithstanding, the Seahawks are expected to ease back Rawls into the system despite the team being on pace for a franchise low for yards in a 16-game season. "We've got to get him back first. Let's get him back, get him going, make sure he's ready to roll and all that, and we'll figure that out," coach Pete Carroll said. "If he makes it through the week, he's going to play considerably because he’s in great shape and he's ready to do that. But we're not going to overplay him or try to take it too far too soon."

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with Seattle as 6-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up to 6.5 and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45.5 and has been fading all week to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 11-2 in Eagles last 13 vs. NFC.
* Over is 8-2 in Seahawks last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

**Udog** · 11-19-2016, 10:56 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 20

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Sunday Night Football betting preview: Green Bay at Washington
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The Packers need a win, but face a Washington team with their revenge on their mind after they were eliminated by Green Bay from the playoffs last season.

Green Bay at Washington (-3, 49)

Washington entered the playoffs last season on a four-game winning streak against a struggling Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers and promptly were run off their home field 35-18. Washington have a chance to atone for that loss Sunday, when they host a Green Bay club that is in the midst of a three-game losing streak.

The Packers have won only once in their last five games, and questions continue to surround the effectiveness of Rodgers, but Washington is tuning out such noise. “He’s still a future Hall-of-Famer,” Washington linebacker Will Compton told reporters. “You can’t buy into that (criticism) for a second.” The most pressing concern for Green Bay is a defense that has surrendered 141 points in its last four defeats, including a 47-25 thrashing at Tennessee last week. Washington did the Packers a favor by posting a 26-20 victory over NFC North-leading Minnesota, keeping Green Bay within a game of the division lead.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 2.5-home favorites over the struggling Packers and, despite briefly rising to 3, the line faded back to 2.5. The total opened 50 and was bet up to 50.5 before dropping to 49.5 late in the week. Check out the complete history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: Two teams on opposite ends of the momentum ladder with Packers dropping three straight game while the Redskins are on a 5-1-1 win run since dropping their first two games of the season. Revenge from a playoff from season will be foremost on Washington’s mind while Green Bay hopes to avoid a 4th straight same season loss for the first time since 2008. Should be a dandy.

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for FedEx Field is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the high 30’s.

INJURY REPORT:

Green Bay - LB Clay Matthews (probable, hamstring), TE Jared Cook (probable, ankle), WR Randall Cobb (probable, hamstring), WR Ty Montgomery (questionable, illness), DB Micah Hyde (questionable, shoulder), CB Quinten Rollins (questionable, groin), C JC Tretter (questionable, knee), G T.J. Lang (questionable, ankle), LB Jake Ryan (questionable, ankle), OT David Bakhtiari (questionable, knee), S Morgan Burnett (questionable, undisclosed)

Washington - LS Nick Sandberg (questionable, back), S Will Blackmon (questionable, thumb), DE Anthony Lanier (questionable, thigh), RB Matt Jones (questionable, knee), WR DeSean Jackson (questionable, shoulder), OT Morgan Moses (questionable, ankle)

ABOUT THE PACKERS (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, 5-4 O/U): Green Bay's ongoing search for a running back led to another waiver-wire acquisition, as it claimed Christine Michael on Wednesday after he was released by Seattle earlier in the week. A former second-round draft pick who was sent packing my three teams last season, Michael rushed for 469 yards for the Seahawks but was held to 23 yards over the last two games. “Dynamic football player; I love his running style,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters. "I think he’s a good fit for us.” Rodgers threw for a season-high 371 yards last week with Green Bay forced to play catch-up, but linebacker Clay Matthews should provide a boost to the beleaguered defense after missing three games.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (5-3-1 SU, 6-3 ATS, 7-2 OU): Washington has lost once in its last seven games (5-1-1) as it attempts to keep pace with first-place Dallas and the New York Giants in the NFC East. Kirk Cousins threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns without an interception against the Vikings and may have to continue to spread the ball around, with deep threat DeSean Jackson again a major question mark due to a shoulder injury. Rookie running back Rob Kelley has look solid in his first two starts, following an 87-yard performance against Cincinnati by rushing for 97 on 22 carries versus Minnesota's rugged defense. Washington is tied for sixth in the league with 25 sacks, with linebackers Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Murphy recording a team-leading seven apiece.

TRENDS:

Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Washington is 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-1 in Packers last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 7-0 in Redskins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 8-1 in Redskins last 9 vs. NFC.
Packers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home team favorite Washington is picking 51 percent of the point spread action and the over is getting 73 percent of the action.

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**Udog** · 11-20-2016, 08:31 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks this week in the Westgate Super Contest:

6) Raiders -5.5 (430)

5) Buccaneers +7.5 (434)

4) Vikings even (400)

3) Titans +3 (509)

2) Dolphins -2.5 (516)

1) Ravens +7 (596)
season record: 17-42-2

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 17 - Monday, November 19)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 17 - Monday, November 19)

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