NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, November 3 - Monday, November 7)

[Udog]

NFL

Week 9

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Monday Night Football betting preview: Bills at Seahawks
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Russell Wilson has zero touchdown passes and one interception in the last three and has rushed for only 16 yards in 10 carries in that span.

Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)

Following a pair of six-point losses to open the season, Buffalo Bills coach Rex Ryan opined that playing a difficult opponent might be just what his team needs to get back on a winning track. That mindset will be in play Monday night for Buffalo, which pays a visit to perhaps the league's toughest venue when it visits the Seattle Seahawks.

The Bills have dropped two in a row to AFC East rivals Miami and New England, prompting Ryan to basically concede the division, and a third straight defeat could seriously jeopardize their wild-card hopes. "Obviously this is probably another top-five team in the NFL," Buffalo linebacker Lorenzo Alexander said. "You don’t want to look that far ahead but each game is very important and at this point we still control our own destiny, but we’ve got to get back on a winning row here." Seattle also needs to get back in the win column after coming up empty in back-to-back road games, falling at New Orleans last weekend following a tie at Arizona. The Seahawks are a different animal at CenturyLink Field with a 3-0 record this season, although two of the wins have come by two points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 7-point home favorites and, despite a brief drop to -6.5 on Tuesday, remain at that opening fugure of -7 on Sunday night. The total hit the betting board at 44, dropped briefly to 43.5 and return to the original number of 44 by game day. View the complete line history here.

WEATHER: The conditions in Seattle are expected to be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the lower 60's and a 15 percent chance of rain showers for Monday Night Football. The humididy level will be high (75 percent) and a slight breeze will not be a factor.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Bills hold the offensive edge in this game, averaging 26.5 points per game and 5.8 yards per play, compared to Seattle's 18.7 ppg and 5.6 yppl. However, the Seahawks hold the defensive edge, allowing just 15.6 points per game and 5.1 yards per play this season, compared to a Buffalo defense that permits 21.5 ppg and 5.9 yppl this season."

INJURIES:

Bills - TE C. Clay (probable, knee), RB L. McCoy (probable, hamstring), WR R. Woods (probable, foot), WR M. Goodwin (probable, concussion), T C. Glenn (questionable, ankle), T S. Henderson (questionable, back), WR B. Tate (questionable, concussion), LB L. Alexander (questionable, hamstring), RB R. Bush (questionable, groin), DT M. Dareus (out, leg), C P. Lewis (out, knee), QB C. Jones (out, shoulder), WR M. Easley (questionable, knee), WR K. Listenbee (questionable, hernia), S A. Williams (I-R, neck), S C. Anderson (I-R, hand), WR S. Watkins (elig Week 12, foot), TE B. Annen (I-R, neck), TE C. Gragg (I-R, knee), DB J. Dowling (I-R, knee), LB R. Ragland (I-R, knee), LB I. Enemkpali (I-R, knee).

Seahawks - QB R. Wilson (probable, knee), TE J. Graham (probable, knee), DT T. McDaniel (probable, undisclosed), LB K. Pierre-Louis (questionable, ankle), T B. Sowell (questionable, knee), CB D. Elliott (questionable, hamstring), TE L. Willson (doubtful, knee), S K. Chancellor (out, groin), DE M. Bennett (out, knee), RB R. Rawls (out, shin), DT J. Hill (I-R, hamstring), DT Q. Jefferson (I-R, knee), DT G. Smith (I-R, undisclosed), LB M. Morgan (I-R, hip), TE J. Sommers (I-R, ankle), WR T. Slavin (I-R, undisclosed), DE T. Barnes (I-R, arm), CB S. Jean-Baptiste (I-R, shoulder).

ABOUT THE BILLS (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS, 6-2 O/U): The No. 1 topic for Buffalo is the health of star running back LeSean McCoy, who sat out last week's game after being limited to 11 yards against the Dolphins in Week 7. McCoy, who rumbled for 470 yards and five touchdowns in Weeks 3-6, was limited at Thursday's practice but expressed optimism that he would be available Monday night. "I feel good. Mentally, I feel great," McCoy said. "Just getting over that step of, ‘If I make this hard cut, will I feel it?’ I did it today, different runs. So I’m ready to roll." Quarterback Tyrod Taylor would benefit most from the return of McCoy, with the Bills' passing game ranking 31st at 179.4 yards per game.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (4-2-1 SU, 3-4 ATS, 3-4 O/U): Despite guiding Seattle to 10 points in the final five minutes of a come-from-behind win over Atlanta in Week 6, quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled over the past three games. Wilson, who battled knee and ankle injuries, has zero touchdown passes and one interception in the last three and has rushed for only 16 yards in 10 carries in that span. Rookie running back C.J. Prosise appears ready to assume a bigger role in the offense behind Christine Michael after accumulating 103 yards scrimmage last week. Seattle allows 89.7 yards on the ground, but defensive end Michael Bennett is out and safety Kam Chancellor likely is as well.

TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 6-0 in Bills last 6 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 Monday games.
* Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The bettors are backing the Seahawks with 52 percent of the wagers on the home favorites. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are taking the Under.

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Steelers open as three-point faves over Cowboys for Week 10

“I don’t like this spot at all for the Cowboys. This team is very fat and happy, winning seven straight and off their most dominating win of the year."

Week 10 of the NFL season features a showdown of traditional powerhouses. We talk about the opening line for that matchup and three others this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Dallas continues to roll behind rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, winning seven in a row SU and ATS after losing its regular-season opener. The Cowboys (7-1 SU and ATS) rolled league doormat Cleveland 35-10 Sunday as a 7-point road chalk.

Pittsburgh got Ben Roethlisberger back for Sunday’s game at Baltimore, but it sure didn’t help much. The Steelers (4-4 SU and ATS) trailed 21-0 early in the fourth quarter before getting a couple late TDs to make a 21-14 loss look more respectable than it was. Pittsburgh, which went off as a 3.5-point favorite, has now dropped three in a row SU and ATS.

“The Steelers are coming off a brutal performance,” Childs said. “They scored two fourth-quarter TDs to make the score respectable, but their play certainly wasn’t. They will need a monster effort here against the Cowboys, a team playing at a high level and off a very dominating win against the Browns.”

That said, if there’s a letdown looming, Childs thinks it could be this week.

“I don’t like this spot at all for the Cowboys,” he said. “This team is very fat and happy, winning seven straight and off their most dominating win of the year. This is their second of back-to-back road games, going into Steel Country, playing a very upset Steelers team. No question, the Steelers will bring 100 percent focus and effort against the Cowboys. I’m not that sure you can say the same about the Cowboys.”

Dallas’ current run, and all the public support that surge has brought at the betting window, made this a tough line to set.

“I wanted to open the Steelers a 3.5-point home favorite, but was convinced that bettors would support the Cowboys at just 3, and boy did they ever,” he said. “We hung 3 and got hammered with Cowboys money. We quickly went to 2.5, and they’re still hammering the Cowboys. At 2.5, we’re not going to be too quick to move the number. The Steelers are a very good team coming off a horrific effort, so I’m more than happy going into this game needing them for a decent decision.”

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1)

Philadelphia’s 3-0 SU and ATS start behind new coach Doug Pederson and rookie QB Carson Wentz seems like a distant memory. The Eagles (4-4 SU and ATS) have dropped four of five SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 28-23 loss at the New York Giants as a 3-point pup.

Atlanta (6-3 SU and ATS) played in the Week 9 Thursday nighter, topping Tampa Bay 43-28 laying 4.5 points on the highway. Childs said bettors already like the Falcons this week.

“We opened Eagles -1, and most of the early money is on the road team,” he said. “The Eagles are off a disappointing loss, actually back-to-back disappointing losses, losing last week in overtime against the Cowboys in a game they absolutely should have won in regulation.

“The Falcons are off a very nice, convincing win over the Bucs, so they come into this game with extra rest and prep time. At the rate the action is coming in on the Falcons, I see us getting to pick ’em at some point Monday. For now, we’re fine dealing Eagles -1.”

Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5)

New England is coming off its bye week, so a team running red-hot will also be well-rested for this Sunday night prime-time tilt. In Week 10, the Patriots (7-1 SU and ATS) avenged their lone loss of the year, dumping Buffalo 41-25 as a 7.5-point road fave. New England is 4-0 SU and ATS since the return of Tom Brady, who has 12 TD passes and no interceptions in that stretch.

Seattle still has work to do in Week 9, hosting Buffalo in the Monday nighter. The Seahawks (4-2-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) are in the midst of an up-and-down year, with the past two weeks a microcosm of that: a 6-6 tie at Arizona, followed by a 25-20 loss at New Orleans giving 1 point.

The current form of these two teams forced Sportsbook.ag to be generous to the Pats this week.

“The Patriots have been crushing bookies all season, so this line is a tad inflated,” Childs said. “I wanted to hang -7, but we opened -7.5, and sure enough, we’re seeing mostly all Patriots money. We went to -7.5 (-115) on the Patriots, charging some extra juice in hopes of discouraging more Pats money.

“But with the Seahawks playing on Monday night, so much will depend on how they perform in front of a national TV audience, because we’ll reopen this game Tuesday morning. Whatever happens in that game, we’ll open the Patriots as high as possible (Tuesday), because they’ve single-handedly cost us a small fortune this season.”

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-3, even)

Cincinnati probably got its bye week at an opportune time this weekend, as a playoff team from last year is struggling to tread water this season. In Week 8, the Bengals (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) settled for a 27-27 tie with Washington.

Meanwhile, New York has put a three-game losing streak behind it by winning two in a row. The Giants (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) fended off Philadelphia 28-23 Sunday laying 3 points at home.

New York and Cincy will be under the Monday night spotlight, wrapping up Week 10.

“We opened the Giants -3 even money, Bengals +3 (-120), and so far, it’s very split, even action,” Childs said. “It’s a great Monday night matchup, but I don’t see this game getting lopsided in either direction. This will be a nice, two-way write for us, and unless a sharp group comes in on a side, we won’t be moving this number all that much.”

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 9 of the Westgate Super Contest in Las Vegas:

1) Denver Broncos, even (695)- L

2) Pittsburgh Steelers, even (605)- L

3) New Orleans Saints, -3.5 (575)- W

4) Carolina Panthers, -3 (525)- T

5) Philadelphia Eagles, +2.5 (474)- L

6) Chiefs -7- L/Titans +5 (472)- L

Season record: 18-35-2- rough year for popular opinions

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday
Falcons 43, Buccaneers 28— Tampa Bay is now 17-43 in its last 60 home games; they fired Lovie Smith because they didn’t want QB guru Dirk Koetter to leave, but Winston isn’t playing as well now. This was halfway point of season and Tampa hasn’t won a home game. Atlanta is in good shape at 6-3- they haven’t had their bye yet, either. Over is 8-1 in Falcon games.

Chiefs 19, Jaguars 14— Kansas City had 16-yard edge in field position; they started four drives in Jax territory, kicking three FGs, scoring only one TD, and that was on a 23-yard drive, so if you gave the points, thats why you lost. With 8:23 left and KC up 19-7, Jaguars fumbled on 6-inch line as runner was crossing goal line; they scored on their next drive, but fell just short of pulling the upset. Under is 6-1 in Chiefs’ last seven games.

Lions 22, Vikings 16 OT— Three weeks ago, Vikings were 5-0 and on an 18-2 run against the spread, which rarely happens. Now they’re 5-3, their OC quit and both their OT’s are hurt. In this game, Minnesota scored with 0:23 left in regulation to take lead, then Stafford got Lions into position for game-tying 58-yard FG at gun. Vikings’ PK Blair Walsh missed a PAT and had FG blocked- he might not be employed much longer. Every Detroit game has been decided by 7 or less points. Success in the NFL is extremely fragile.

Giants 28, Eagles 23— Wentz threw picks on first two possessions, Giants grabbed 14-0 lead 5:07 into game; in second quarter, after a Philly FG, Pederson passed up FG tries of 40, 23 yards to try and get a first down, failing both times- they also had a FG blocked, then came up empty in the red zone on their last drive. You get ball in red zone six times and score only 20 points, you deserve to lose. If Eagles kick those 2nd quarter FGs, this might’ve been a different ending.

Cowboys 35, Browns 10— Not much to say here; a complete ass-kicking. During Rams’ game, FOX’s Kevin Burkhardt said “Right now, Dallas is best team in the NFC.” His partner John Lynch responded very quickly/skeptically, “Thats what the records say.” Cleveland is horrible.

Credit to Jason Garrett for this: Cowboys are 7-1 vs spread in last eight games as a road favorite- they win games they’re expected to win.

Dolphins 27, Jets 23— Jets scored in last 6:00 to take lead, but Miami ran kick back 96 yards for game-winning TD. This was Miami’s 4th straight home game, with a bye in between; their next two games are in southern California. Greg Gumbel/Trent Green had this game; they are a better crew than Nantz/Simms, and not because of Nantz.

Ravens 21, Steelers 14— This was Baltimore’s first win since September 25 and they’re in first place in AFC North, which is terrible this year. Ravens scored one offensive TD, a 95-yard pass in first quarter- their other TD was on a blocked punt. Bengals are 3-4-1, only half-game out of first place. Roethlisberger was obviously rusty as he returned too soon from his injury. Ravens are 12-3 off their last 15 bye weeks.

Saints 41, 49ers 23— In their last three games, Saints have run 62 more plays than their opponents. NO is now 4-4 after an 0-3 start. Chip Kelly should take Phil Knight’s $10M and go back to Oregon; 49ers are horrendous. Six of last seven SF games went over the total. Niners were outscored 91-23 in second half of their last five games.

Panthers 13, Rams 10— I could go on for a while about the Rams, but right now, I only want to know one thing; has Jeff Fisher’s contract been extended past this year? No one knows.

If it has been, then what he’s doing with Jared Goff is the proper course of action, let the kid learn on the sidelines and they’ll grow together.

If Fisher’s contract hasn’t been extended, then this is unacceptable, holding the franchise hostage so he can get a new deal, because this Case Keenum-led offense is putrid. Fisher makes $7M a year and right now, his team isn’t good. He really doesn’t deserve the extension.

The last 22 times the Rams have had the ball, their offense has outscored the other team’s defense, 10-7. How much bleeping worse could Goff be?

Colts 31, Packers 26— Misleading score; Indy kicked their butts in this game, running opening kick back for a TD, then running another kick back 61 yards later in first half. Over is 7-2 in Colt games this year. If you had Aaron Rodgers at QB, wouldn’t you get him a couple of really fast WRs? Green Bay scored 58 points in its last two games and lost both of them- they’re not athletic enough.

I’m mad because the Rams are 3-5; hell, the Packers have Rodgers and they’re 4-4.

Chargers 43, Titans 35— Ken Whishenhunt almost hung half a hundred on the team that fired him as HC last year, though they did score two defensive TDs. There is a proposition on the ballot in San Diego Tuesday to raise the hotel tax to pay for a new stadium for the Chargers; it needs 66.7% to pass, but if it gets over 50%, then the stadium is in limbo. Over is 7-2 in Charger games, 6-0 in last six Titan tilts.

Raiders 30, Broncos 20— Oakland ran ball for 218 yards, had 18-yard edge in field position; before this game, most rushing yards Denver had allowed was 157. In their first eight games, Denver’s defense scored three TDs, created field position for 10 TDs where scoring drive was less than 60 yards. Broncos’ average starting position here was their own 19-yard line, worst in NFL this week. Oakland is 7-2 and atop AFC West, with second-best record in AFC.

In baseball news, Colorado Rockies will name Bud Black their new manager Monday morning. Interesting that a former manager willl manage the Rockies, given the problems pitches have had pitching in high altitude.