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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, November 3 - Monday, November 7)

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  • NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, November 3 - Monday, November 7)






    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, November 3 - Monday, November 7

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  • #2
    NFL Week 9 Opening Line Report: Raiders, Bronocs meet with first place on the line

    The Broncos open their big matchup with the Raiders as 1-pt home faves with the first in the AFC West on the line.

    Every team in the NFL reaches at least the season’s midpoint this weekend, and perhaps a game beyond that for teams that haven’t had their bye week yet. We talk about some key Week 9 opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

    Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+1)

    Defending Super Bowl champion Denver is atop the AFC West, but not alone, as on-the-rise Oakland is also 6-2 SU heading into a Sunday night showdown. The Broncos (6-2 ATS) held off San Diego 27-19 as a 3.5-point home favorite in Week 8, continuing an interesting trend: in their last 12 victories, the Broncos have held their opponents to 20 points or less all 12 times.

    Oakland (5-3 ATS) has continued its rise by hanging out in Florida the past two weeks and bagging consecutive wins and covers. In Week 7, the Raiders bested Jacksonville, and on Sunday, Oakland edged Tampa Bay 30-24 in overtime as a 1-point underdog.

    “This is a great prime-time matchup, with these teams vying for sole possession of first place in the very competitive AFC West,” Childs said. “The Raiders are hot, winning and covering their past two games, but that was against the god-awful Jags and the very inconsistent Bucs. Against the Bucs, they set a record for number of penalties recorded in an NFL game (23).”

    Childs noted the Raiders are a stout 5-0 SU and ATS on the road, but have failed to cash in their three home games this season.

    “So this is truly a test, going up against the defending Super Bowl champs,” Childs said. “We considered making this game a pick ’em, because while the Raiders have struggled at home, they still have great support in Oakland. And being the Sunday night game, we fully expect a raucous crowd.

    “But we also know that our customers are going to bet the Broncos in this game, and we wanted to open them a slight favorite, which we did, having them lay 1. So far, 80 percent of early action has come in as we expected, on the Broncos, and we’re sure that money will continue to come in on the Broncos up until game time. We’ll be fine going into this game needing the Raiders, they’re definitely live, and no question they’re going to bring a monster effort in their first Sunday night game since I can remember.”

    Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

    This is annually a key game for these AFC North rivals, but Pittsburgh will still be without Ben Roethlisberger (knee), and Baltimore is flailing after a strong start. The Steelers (4-3 SU and ATS) are coming off their bye, following a 27-16 home loss to New England as a 7.5-point pup on Oct. 23.

    The Ravens (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) are also coming off the bye, having lost four in a row SU and five in a row ATS. In Week 7, as a 2.5-point road ‘dog to the New York Jets, Baltimore lost 24-16.

    “Maybe no team in the NFL needed a bye more than the Ravens,” Childs said. “Baltimore simply can’t move the ball on offense and recently fired offensive coordinator Marc Trestman. The extra week should help new offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg implement his schemes and systems.”

    Sportsbook.ag strongly considered Ravens -3 as the opening number, with Pittsburgh trotting out Landry Jones as the starting quarterback.
    “I really wanted to make the Ravens a solid 3-point favorite. But we simply couldn’t,” Childs said. “The history of this rivalry has been intense and ultra-competitive, and both games last year landed on 3. Throw in the fact that bettors are very down on this Ravens team, and we simply couldn’t open up as high as a field goal, so we opened Ravens -2.5. So far we’ve seen steady, two-way action.”

    Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-7)

    Minnesota (5-1 SU and ATS) still has some Week 8 work to complete, traveling to Chicago to face the Bears in a Halloween Monday nighter. But that didn’t stop Childs from posting the Vikings’ Week 9 line a little bit earlier, largely due to Detroit’s performance Sunday. The Lions (4-4 SU and ATS) saw their three-game SU and ATS streak halted in a 20-13 loss at Houston as a 1-point ‘dog

    “Detroit went into Houston with some nice momentum, but those wins were all at home, and yesterday, they simply couldn’t execute on offense,” Childs said. “If the Lions can’t move the ball against Houston on the road, you can’t expect them to do much against the best defense, playing in the loudest stadium in the NFL.

    “So far, we’ve seen decent two-way action at our current number of Minnesota -7, but so much will depend on how the Vikings play tonight. Their performance will impact how we reopen this line Tuesday.”

    Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)

    New York hopes to pick up where it left off before its bye week, as the Giants had won two in a row SU and ATS, including a 17-10 victory at Los Angeles giving 2.5 points in Week 7 to reach 4-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS. Philadelphia (4-3 SU and ATS) started the season 3-0 behind rookie QB Carson Wentz, but has now lost three of four, including Sunday’s 29-23 overtime setback at Dallas catching 5 points.

    “I suspect we’ll open up the Giants about a field-goal favorite, but we haven’t opened this game yet, as the Eagles played on Sunday night,” Childs said.
    Last edited by Udog; 10-31-2016, 06:39 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL
      Long Sheet

      Week 9


      Thursday, November 3

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      ATLANTA (5 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (3 - 4) - 11/3/2016, 8:25 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
      TAMPA BAY is 59-35 ATS (+20.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
      TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
      TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
      TAMPA BAY is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
      TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Sunday, November 6

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      JACKSONVILLE (2 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 2) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
      There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      DETROIT (4 - 4) at MINNESOTA (5 - 1) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      DETROIT is 22-38 ATS (-19.8 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
      DETROIT is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
      DETROIT is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
      DETROIT is 61-87 ATS (-34.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1992.
      DETROIT is 128-165 ATS (-53.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
      DETROIT is 39-59 ATS (-25.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
      MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      MINNESOTA is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
      MINNESOTA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      MINNESOTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
      MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
      MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
      MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      PHILADELPHIA (4 - 3) at NY GIANTS (4 - 3) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      NY GIANTS are 33-60 ATS (-33.0 Units) in November games since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
      PHILADELPHIA is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
      2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      DALLAS (6 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 8) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      DALLAS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
      DALLAS is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
      CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      CLEVELAND is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      NY JETS (3 - 5) at MIAMI (3 - 4) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      NY JETS are 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
      MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
      MIAMI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
      MIAMI is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
      MIAMI is 68-95 ATS (-36.5 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
      MIAMI is 51-78 ATS (-34.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      NY JETS is 4-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
      NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
      2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      PITTSBURGH (4 - 3) at BALTIMORE (3 - 4) - 11/6/2016, 1:00 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      PITTSBURGH is 65-41 ATS (+19.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
      BALTIMORE is 4-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
      3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      NEW ORLEANS (3 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 6) - 11/6/2016, 4:05 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      NEW ORLEANS is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
      SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
      1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      CAROLINA (2 - 5) at LA RAMS (3 - 4) - 11/6/2016, 4:05 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      CAROLINA is 75-52 ATS (+17.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
      CAROLINA is 155-121 ATS (+21.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
      CAROLINA is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
      LA RAMS is 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
      LA RAMS is 174-217 ATS (-64.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
      LA RAMS is 80-111 ATS (-42.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
      LA RAMS is 126-171 ATS (-62.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
      LA RAMS is 57-86 ATS (-37.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 5) at GREEN BAY (4 - 3) - 11/6/2016, 4:25 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
      GREEN BAY is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      TENNESSEE (4 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 5) - 11/6/2016, 4:25 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      TENNESSEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
      TENNESSEE is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      TENNESSEE is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
      TENNESSEE is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
      TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
      TENNESSEE is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
      TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
      TENNESSEE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
      TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
      SAN DIEGO is 26-4 ATS (+21.6 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
      SAN DIEGO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
      SAN DIEGO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      DENVER (6 - 2) at OAKLAND (6 - 2) - 11/6/2016, 8:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
      OAKLAND is 44-77 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
      OAKLAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
      OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
      OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
      OAKLAND is 54-80 ATS (-34.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
      OAKLAND is 24-48 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
      OAKLAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
      DENVER is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
      2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Monday, November 7

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      BUFFALO (4 - 4) at SEATTLE (4 - 2 - 1) - 11/7/2016, 8:30 PM
      Top Trends for this game.
      SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
      BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
      BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
      SEATTLE is 40-65 ATS (-31.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

      Head-to-Head Series History
      There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

      Comment


      • #4
        NFL

        Week 9


        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Trend Report
        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Thursday, November 3

        8:25 PM
        ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
        Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
        Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
        Tampa Bay is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
        The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games


        Sunday, November 6

        1:00 PM
        NY JETS vs. MIAMI
        NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games
        The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 8 games on the road
        Miami is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games at home
        Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

        1:00 PM
        DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
        Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
        The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
        Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
        The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 13 games at home

        1:00 PM
        DALLAS vs. CLEVELAND
        Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
        Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
        Cleveland is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
        The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home

        1:00 PM
        JACKSONVILLE vs. KANSAS CITY
        Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games on the road
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
        Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

        1:00 PM
        PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
        The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
        Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
        NY Giants are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home
        NY Giants are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

        1:00 PM
        PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
        The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games on the road
        Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
        Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
        Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

        4:05 PM
        CAROLINA vs. LOS ANGELES
        The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
        Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
        The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Los Angeles's last 10 games at home
        The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing Carolina

        4:05 PM
        NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
        The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
        San Francisco is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against New Orleans
        San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

        4:25 PM
        TENNESSEE vs. SAN DIEGO
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
        Tennessee is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Diego
        San Diego is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tennessee
        San Diego is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee

        4:25 PM
        INDIANAPOLIS vs. GREEN BAY
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
        The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
        Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
        The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Green Bay's last 22 games

        8:30 PM
        DENVER vs. OAKLAND
        Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
        The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games
        Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home


        Monday, November 7

        8:30 PM
        BUFFALO vs. SEATTLE
        The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Seattle
        Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
        Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
        The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo


        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Comment


        • #5
          NFL
          Dunkel

          Week 9


          Thursday, November 3

          Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

          Game 307-308
          November 3, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Atlanta
          136.632
          Tampa Bay
          130.649
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Atlanta
          by 6
          55
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Atlanta
          by 3 1/2
          51
          Dunkel Pick:
          Atlanta
          (-3 1/2); Over



          Sunday, November 6

          Denver @ Oakland

          Game 471-472
          November 6, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Denver
          137.291
          Oakland
          134.176
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Denver
          by 3
          38
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Oakland
          by 1
          44
          Dunkel Pick:
          Denver
          (+1); Under

          Tennessee @ San Diego


          Game 469-470
          November 6, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Tennessee
          128.214
          San Diego
          136.794
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          San Diego
          by 8 1/2
          42
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          San Diego
          by 4 1/2
          47 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          San Diego
          (-4 1/2); Under

          Indianapolis @ Green Bay


          Game 467-468
          November 6, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Indianapolis
          132.756
          Green Bay
          131.515
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Indianapolis
          by 1
          45
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Green Bay
          by 7 1/2
          54
          Dunkel Pick:
          Indianapolis
          (+7 1/2); Under

          Carolina @ Los Angeles


          Game 465-466
          November 6, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Carolina
          131.114
          Los Angeles
          132.994
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Los Angeles
          by 2
          49
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Carolina
          by 3
          44 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          Los Angeles
          (+3); Over

          New Orleans @ San Francisco


          Game 463-464
          November 6, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          New Orleans
          131.745
          San Francisco
          123.645
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          New Orleans
          by 8
          48
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          New Orleans
          by 3
          52
          Dunkel Pick:
          New Orleans
          (-3); Under

          Pittsburgh @ Baltimore


          Game 461-462
          November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Pittsburgh
          128.005
          Baltimore
          135.021
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Baltimore
          by 7
          48
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Baltimore
          by 1 1/2
          43
          Dunkel Pick:
          Baltimore
          (-1 1/2); Over

          NY Jets @ Miami


          Game 459-460
          November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          NY Jets
          126.670
          Miami
          134.510
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Miami
          by 8
          47
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Miami
          by 3 1/2
          44
          Dunkel Pick:
          Miami
          (-3 1/2); Over

          Dallas @ Cleveland


          Game 457-458
          November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Dallas
          138.641
          Cleveland
          124.455
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Dallas
          by 14
          54
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Dallas
          by 7
          48 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          Dallas
          (-7); Over

          Philadelphia @ NY Giants


          Game 455-456
          November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Philadelphia
          136.006
          NY Giants
          134.048
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Philadelphia
          by 2
          47
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          NY Giants
          by 3
          42 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          Philadelphia
          (+3); Over

          Detroit @ Minnesota


          Game 453-454
          November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Detroit
          128.193
          Minnesota
          136.618
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Minnesota
          by 8 1/2
          36
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Minnesota
          by 6
          41
          Dunkel Pick:
          Minnesota
          (-6); Under

          Jacksonville @ Kansas City


          Game 451-452
          November 6, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Jacksonville
          120.994
          Kansas City
          140.404
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Kansas City
          by 19 1/2
          50
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Kansas City
          by 8 1/2
          46
          Dunkel Pick:
          Kansas City
          (-8 1/2); Over



          Monday, November 7

          Buffalo @ Seattle

          Game 473-474
          November 7, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

          Dunkel Rating:
          Buffalo
          131.301
          Seattle
          142.404
          Dunkel Team:
          Dunkel Line:
          Dunkel Total:
          Seattle
          by 11
          47
          Vegas Team:
          Vegas Line:
          Vegas Total:
          Seattle
          by 6 1/2
          43 1/2
          Dunkel Pick:
          Seattle
          (-6 1/2); Over

          Comment


          • #6
            NFL
            Short Sheet

            Week 9


            Thurs – Nov. 3

            Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 8:25 PM ET

            Atlanta: 1-11 ATS as a favorite
            Tampa Bay: 12-6 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points




            NFL
            Armadillo's Write-Up

            Week 9


            Thursday's game
            Falcons (5-3) @ Buccaneers (3-4)— Underdogs are 20-3 vs spread in Atlanta games since Quinn has been their coach. Over is 7-1 in their games this year; road teams covered seven of eight games. Falcons are 3-1 on road (4-0 vs spread) but were dogs in all four. Bucs are 0-3 at home this year after 30-24 OT loss to Oakland; Raiders ran 85 plays for 626 yards, averaged 8.2 ypa. Tampa allowed 24 or less points in its wins, 27+ in its losses. Tampa Bay had three TD plays of 23+ yards in 31-24 win (+3) in season opener in Atlanta; Winston averaged 8.5 yds/pass attempt. Bucs won last three series games, by 3-4-7 points; LY was their first series sweep since ’07. Falcons are 4-3 in last seven visits here. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NFC South divisional games so far this season.

            Comment


            • #7
              NFL Week 9 lines that make you go hmmm...

              The Cowboys have a great offense and defense, holding four of their past five opponents to less than 20 points.

              New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 51)

              I was somewhat surprised at the opening line for the New Orleans at San Francisco game. The Saints are but a mere 3-4 but those four wins have come in the last four weeks of play. New Orleans has played a really tough schedule to date and only sitting a game or so from being inside the bubble, they have to be thinking this game at San Francisco is a “must-win” in order to keep those playoff hopes alive.

              I made this game closer to -6 so I see tremendous value at this level. The 49ers are now losers of six in a row and have allowed point totals of 46, 37, 24, 33, 45 and 34 in those games. They’ve scored 27, 18, 17, 21, 16 and 17 points for respectively. With the added information that RB Carlos Hyde is questionable for San Francisco, I just don’t see the Niners keeping up to the Saints’ offensive potential.

              All the incentive lies with New Orleans as San Francisco appears to be a stumbling mess of limited talents and off-the-field issues. I don’t see where the San Francisco money will be coming from, so take the Saints early in the week before this climbs too high on game day.

              Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 44)

              I will always be a Buffalo backer but we were too smart this past week to let the game versus New England go by without that being a take for the favorite. Unfortunately, Buffalo’s ill-fated results are not based on lack of talent but the talent it does have not suiting up to play. Buffalo is at Seattle in what appears to be a slaughter waiting to happen.

              Again, the Bills will be without a host of starting players this week both on the offensive and defensive sides at Seattle, which will prove to be their demise once again. Buffalo is a team sinking fast after such high expectations at the start of the season and can’t possibly be thinking it can compete at Seattle’s level. The Seahawks were one foot inbounds away from continuing their climb in the NFC and have to be thinking this game versus Buffalo is important to have one week before their big showdown at New England.

              The incentive is with Seattle and it has the dominant defense that will assuredly silence any notions the Buffalo offense has of being effective. After two tough games on the road, Seattle should be licking its chops at the site of a weakened herd limping into their home field.

              At -7, the number is saying Seattle would be a PK or 1-point favorite at Buffalo, which would be absurd. I had this in the -9 range hoping I wasn’t too low. If Buffalo was healthy, that’s another story. But it isn’t, so this leaves this game as one-sided as it can get.

              Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (+7.5, 47)

              Dallas is at Cleveland and although Cleveland may be up for the game, the 0-8 team may lack the firepower to stay up with the NFC’s best team. This is another game where I had a disparity in the opening line. I have no less than -9 here.

              Dallas is a proven winner on the road with victories in Washington, San Francisco and at Green Bay. The Cowboys are playing great defense in holding four of their past five opponents to less than 20 points.

              The Browns have played six different quarterbacks this season. It’s kind of tough to get any continuity with a key position like that up in the air. There’s no larger disparity of incentive than between these two teams this week. Dallas doesn’t want to be the first team to lose to Cleveland and that’s probably the weakest argument among the 100 other reasons why they should take this contest handily.

              Dak Prescott is hitting his stride and with the continuing shadow of Tony Romo’s return, he has the incentive to make every game a solid one. It’s very hard to come up with anything for Cleveland, outside of a freak breakout on an arbitrary week playing one of the best teams in the NFL. We have our doubts on that. Another game to hit up the favorite early in the week as there is no running to the counter to play Cleveland this week.

              Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-5, 47)

              Tennessee is at San Diego and the new-look Titans, winners of three of their last four games have been scoring at a high rate. This matches well with San Diego which has been an Over team for pretty much the entire year.

              San Diego totals have been 60, 52, 48, 69, 65, 63 and 46 with one 34 sprinkled in the mix. The Titans have not been below 47 the past five games. With the current total at 47, I’m thinking this may be an easy target to reach.

              Both teams have hot quarterbacks with ratings in the mid 90’s. They’ve combined for over 4,000 yards in the air already and both have at least twice as many TDs thrown as interceptions. Playing in San Diego, we’re going to assume the weather will be ideal and the track will be fast. I don’t see much reason to believe this will be a slowdown game, so let’s get this one Over the 47 and take the easy way to the cashier.

              Comment


              • #8
                Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

                NFL trends with Week 9 right around the corner:

                — Falcons are 2-14 vs spread in their last 16 games as a favorite.

                — Dallas won/covered its last six games.

                — Tennessee is 4-12 vs spread in its last 16 games.

                — San Francisco is 10-5-1 in last 16 games as a home dog.

                — Denver is 21-9 vs spread in its last 30 divisional games.

                — Carolina is 3-7 vs spread in its last ten games.

                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL

                  Thursday, November 3


                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Thursday Night Football betting preview: Falcons at Buccaneers
                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  The betting favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the Falcons and Bucs. Atlanta is a 3.5-point road favorite Thursday night.

                  Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 51)

                  The Atlanta Falcons may own the NFL's top-ranked offense and reside on top of the NFC South, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had their number with Jameis Winston under center. The former Heisman Trophy recipient will look to guide the Buccaneers to their second series sweep of the Falcons in as many seasons on Thursday night as the division rivals clash at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla.

                  Winston tossed four touchdown passes in a 31-24 season-opening victory over Atlanta on Sept. 11 and added two more in a 30-24 overtime loss to Oakland on Sunday. Trusted target Mike Evans reeled in a scoring strike against the Falcons and his six touchdown receptions are tied for the NFL lead.

                  Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan continued his stellar season with three touchdown passes in Sunday's 33-32 victory over Green Bay, capping his 32nd career game-winning drive with an 11-yard scoring strike to offseason acquisition Mohamed Sanu. Ryan, who leads the league in both yards (2,636) and touchdowns (19), has thrown for 1,000 yards and five scores in his last three encounters with Tampa Bay and faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 23rd in the league (274.7 yards per contest).

                  TV:
                  8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

                  LINE:
                  The Falcons opened as field goal road favorites and that jumped to -3.5. The total has dropped from 51.5 to 51.

                  WEATHER:
                  The forecast for Raymond James Stadium is calling for partially cloudy skied with temperatures in the mid 70's with winds blowing NNE at 5 mph.

                  INJURIES:
                  Falcons - DE D. Freeney (questionable), DT. G. Jarrett (questionable), G A. Levitre (questionable), S B. Poole (questionable), T. Coleman (doubtful), TE J. Tamme (out). Bucs - DT C. MacDonald (questionable), RB J. Rodgers (questionable), WR R. Shepard (questionable), DE W. Gholston (questionable), RB D. Martin (out).

                  WHAT BOOKS SAY:
                  "Having opened at three, and almost immediately moving to 3.5, it’s clear that everyone has been on Atlanta from the start for Thursday night’s matchup against the Bucs. Right now 70 percent of the action is on the Falcons, and I would be surprised if the line doesn’t get up to at least Atlanta -4."

                  WHAT SHARPS SAY:
                  "At 2-5, even the Carolina Panthers have a mathematical shot at winning the NFC South. Atlanta is 5-2 and the Bucs are 3-4, making Thursday's contest an extremely important one. Tampa Bay won 31-24 in Atlanta in their respective openers, so it's interesting to note that the Falcons are 8-6 ATS in their last 14 in trying to avenge a loss versus an opponent."

                  ABOUT THE FALCONS (5-3, 5-3 ATS):
                  Julio Jones has amassed an NFC-best 859 yards and is averaging 20.0 yards per catch, but the electric wideout was hobbled by an ailing knee and finished with 29 yards receiving for the second time this season. While Jones is expected to play on Thursday, running back Tevin Coleman (hamstring) is listed as questionable after sitting out last week's tilt versus the Packers. Devonta Freeman more than picked up the slack with a rushing and receiving touchdown last week and has 100-plus scrimmage yards in two of his last three contests, although he was limited to just 20 yards on 11 carries in the season-opening loss.

                  ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (3-4, 3-4 ATS):
                  While Tampa Bay's passing game is pretty well defined, the backfield has remained in motion through most of the season due to injury. Jacquizz Rodgers filled in admirably for Doug Martin (hamstring) before sustaining a sprained foot versus the Raiders, perhaps opening the door for a three-man backfield of Antone Smith, Peyton Barber and Mike James. Linebacker Kwon Alexander recorded 14 tackles versus Oakland last week, his highest total since collecting 17 in the season opener at Atlanta.

                  TRENDS:


                  * Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay.
                  * Favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
                  * Falcons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Tampa Bay.

                  CONSENSUS:
                  76 percent of bets are on Atlanta while 73 percent of totals bets are on the Over.


                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    NFL
                    Short Sheet

                    Week 9


                    Sun – Nov. 6

                    Jacksonville at Kansas City, 1:00 PM ET

                    Jacksonville: 25-12 OVER off a road loss against a division rival
                    Kansas City: 1-13 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games

                    Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
                    Detroit: 12-35 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4
                    Minnesota: 7-0 ATS off a division game

                    Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
                    Philadelphia: 22-10 ATS in road games after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
                    New York: 33-60 ATS in November games

                    Dallas at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
                    Dallas: 12-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
                    Cleveland: 0-6 ATS as a home underdog

                    NY Jets at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
                    New York: 50-30 ATS in road games versus division opponents
                    Miami: 5-13 ATS against conference opponents

                    Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
                    Pittsburgh: 47-27 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
                    Baltimore: 2-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

                    New Orleans at San Francisco, 4:05 PM ET
                    New Orleans: 47-29 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
                    San Francisco: 4-13 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points

                    Carolina at Los Angeles, 4:05 PM ET
                    Carolina: 33-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4
                    Los Angeles: 39-60 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

                    Indianapolis at Green Bay, 4:25 PM ET
                    Indianapolis: 9-1 OVER in games played on a grass field
                    Green Bay: 15-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

                    Tennessee at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
                    Tennessee: 3-14 ATS against conference opponents
                    San Diego: 8-0 ATS off a division game

                    Denver at Oakland, 8:30 PM ET
                    Denver: 7-0 ATS as an underdog
                    Oakland: 2-9 ATS in home games


                    Mon – Nov. 7

                    Buffalo at Seattle, 8:30 PM ET

                    Buffalo: 12-26 ATS in road games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
                    Seattle: 30-16 ATS in home games in non-conference games

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      NFL
                      Armadillo's Write-Up

                      Week 9


                      Sunday's games
                      Jaguars (2-5) @ Chiefs (5-2)— Jax coach Bradley still has job, despite being outscored 47-6 in first half of last two games. QB coach Hackett was promoted to OC this week; old OC was canned in large part due to QB’s poor play. Go figure. Jags are 1-2 in true road games, losing 38-14 in San Diego, 36-22 in Nashville- they won in Chicago, rallying from down 13-0 in 4th quarter. Chiefs are 3-0 since their bye, winning by 16-6-16 points; they’re 1-2 as home favorite, winning at home by 6-21-6 points. QB Foles gets first start for Chiefs here. KC won last two series games, by 22-26 points, but last meeting was in 2013. Teams split four meetings here. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-4 vs spread, 4-4 at home. AFC South underdogs are 4-7, 3-4 on road. Five of Chiefs’ last six games stayed under the total.

                      Lions (4-4) @ Vikings (5-2)— Nikes’ OC Norv Turner quit Wednesday morning; former Browns’ HC Shurmur takes over. Minnesota was +11 in turnovers during its 5-0 start, but they’ve lost last two games, scoring only two TDs on 20 drives (even in TOs). Bradford was sacked 11 times in last two games (only 5 times in first five), Vikings are 3-0 at home, winning by 3-14-18 points (3-0 as home favorite). Detroit is 1-3 on road this year, losing last three away games by 7-3-7 points; they’re 2-1 as road underdogs this year; since 2010, Lions are 9-15 as road dogs. All eight Detroit games have been decided by 7 or less points. Minnesota is 5-3 in last eight series games, winning both meetings by 10 points LY. Lions are 2-15 in last 17 visits here, 2-3 in last five after an 0-12 drought. Home teams are 3-1 in NFC North games this year (HF 1-1). Under is 5-1 in Minnesota games this season.

                      Eagles (4-3) @ Giants (4-3)— Philly scored 10 TDs on 33 drives during their 3-0 start; they’ve scored 5 TDs on 40 drives in 1-3 skid since, losing last three road games by 1-7-6ot points. Giants are 2-1 at home, with three games decided by total of 9 nine points- they’ve run ball for only 39 yds/game in last three games, but outscored last three opponents 37-19 in second half. Iggles are 13-3 in last 16 series games, winning last four, three by 8+ points. Eagles won last three visits here, by 15-8-5 points, scoring 35 pts/game. NFL-wide, home favorites are 9-12-1 vs spread in divisional games; they’re 1-3 in NFC East games. Giants are 5-3 vs spread as favorites in post-bye games- they lost 40-24/20-14 in last two. Three of last four Philly games went over total; three of Giants’ last four stayed under.

                      Cowboys (6-1) @ Browns (0-8)— Trap game for Dallas after OT win over rival Eagles last week; Cowboys are 3-0 on road this year, winning by 4-7-14 points. Pokes ran ball for 180+ yards in each of last five games, but are 7-25 on 3rd down in last two. Browns allowed 193 rushing yds/game the last three weeks; they are 1-1-1 as home underdogs, losing home games by 5-20-3 points- they led Ravens/Jets at halftime at home. Addition of former Pats’ LB Collins raises Cleveland talent level; they need more players like him. Dallas won last three series games, by 7-18-3 points; they won 28-10 in last visits here, in ’08. Since 2014, Cowboys are 6-1 as road favorites (1-0 this year). NFL-wide, non-divisional home dogs are 11-11 vs spread. Over is 6-1 in Browns’ last seven games, 1-3 in last four Dallas games.

                      Jets (3-5) @ Dolphins (3-4)— Miami showed life before its bye with home upsets of Steelers, Bills; Dolphins are 3-1 at home, with loss to Titans- dogs covered all four of their home games. Over last 9 years, Fish are woeful 11-28 vs spread as home favorites. Jets are 2-3 on road, 1-2-1 as road dogs, with losses by 21-18-25 on foreign soil. Gang Green is 9-13-3 in last 25 games as a road dog. Home side lost six of last seven series games; Jets won four of last five, with all four wins by 13+ points- they won last three visits to Miami by 3-13-13 points. This is only 2nd time Miami is favored in its last 12 post-bye games- they’re 6-12 in last 18 SU. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-11-1 vs spread. Under is 3-1 in Jets’ last four games, 2-4 in Miami’s last six games.

                      Steelers (4-3) @ Ravens (3-4)— Both teams are coming off a bye; Steelers lost 35-32/39-30 in last two post-bye games, Baltimore is 11-3 in its last 14 post-bye games. Seven of last ten series games were decided by 3 or less points. This is actually a battle for first place in AFC North. Big Ben is expected back at QB for Steelers; hard to believe he would be 100% already. Pitt lost last two games before its bye, scoring 15-16 points, with Jones playing QB last game. Baltimore lost its last four games after a 3-0 start; they have 3 offensive TDs on 35 drives in last three games- changing OC’s has not helped. Ravens won five of last six series games; Pitt lost last three visits here, by 2-20-3 points. Five of last six Steeler games stayed under; under is 4-3 in Raven games.

                      Saints (3-4) @ 49ers (1-6)— New Orleans rallied to win three of last four games after 0-3 start; this is trap game coming off Seattle upset, vs 49er squad that lost its last six games but is off their bye week. NO is 1-2 on road, with three games decided by total of 10 points. Kelly was 1-2 in post-bye games with Eagles; 49ers scored 11.7 pts/game in losing last three post-bye games, by 1-3-16 points. Niners won three of last four series games; four of last five in series were decided by 4 or less points. Saints are 3-2 in last five visits here, but last one was in 2011. In last five games, Saints are 44-76 on 3rd down; in their last two games they’ve run 37 more plays than their opponents. Niners were outscored 81-20 in second half of their last four games. Five of 49ers’ last six games went over total.

                      Panthers (2-5) @ Rams (3-4)— Panthers beat Arizona 30-20 LW, ending 4-game skid; curious if Newton’s whining about late hits on him has any impact with refs here. Carolina is 0-3 on road, allowing 36.7 pts/game- they were favored in all three games, are 5-12 in last 17 games as a road favorite. Rams lost last three games before their bye, all games that were tied in second half. LA is 3-0 when it gets 2+ takeaways, 0-4 when it does not. Rams are 7-2 vs spread in last nine post-bye games, 3-1 under Fisher; unsure if rookie QB Goff will see time here- he is taking more reps in practice. Carolina won five of last six series games; they were 6-4 vs Rams in St Louis. Over is 5-2 in Carolina games this year. This is only 3rd home game for Rams, who scored one offensive TD on 20 drives in splitting their first two.

                      Colts (3-5) @ Packers (4-3)— Underdogs are 5-1-1 vs spread in Green Bay games this year; Packers are 3-1 SU at home, with home wins by 7-7-16 points- they’re 5-6-1 in last 12 games as a home favorite. Colts are 2-3 in their non-divisional games, losing by 4-14-16 points; they’re 7-4-1 in last 12 games as a road underdog. Indy has only three takeaways in its last five games (-1)- they’re 16-49 on 3rd down in last four games. Packers are 49-95 on 3rd down for season. Hard to stop Rodgers if you don’t turn him over (7 TO’s/3 losses)- they score 28.4 pts/game when they turn ball over less than 3 times (4-1). Home side won last six series games, with average total in last five series games, 62. Colts lost last three visits here by 4-2-20 points; their last win here was in 1988. Over is 6-2 in Indy games this year, 1-3 in last four Packer games.

                      Titans (4-4) @ Chargers (3-5)— Titans fired Ken Whisenhunt (3-20) as their coach before halfway point of LY; he is now San Diego’s OC. If he is human, this game means little more to him than it usually would. San Diego won nine of last ten series games, last of which was in 2013. Tennessee lost last six visits here, with five of six by 8+ points- their last win here was in 1990. Titans had three extra days to prep after Thursday night win LW; they’re 2-1 as road dog this year, 11-18 in last 29 such games. San Diego is 11-16 in last 27 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year; Bolts are 10-7 vs spread in last 17 non-divisional home games. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 4-7 vs spread, 3-4 on road. AFC West favorites are 6-4, 4-4 at home. Over is 6-2 in Charger games, 5-0 in last five Titan tilts.

                      Broncos (6-2) @ Raiders (6-2)— Denver defense continues to be dominant; in last two games, they allowed only two TDs on 25 drives, while scoring one of their own- they had 11 takeaways in last five games (+5). Raiders scored 28+ points in six of eight games; they allowed 11.1/9.3 yds/pass attempt in their two losses. Not sure Denver QB Siemian is up achieving to those numbers. Broncos are 7-1-2 under Kubiak in games with spread of 3 or less points; Raiders are 4-1 in those games this year, after being 4-15 in previous 19. Oakland is 5-0 at home, 1-2 at home; this game is for top spot in AFC West. Denver won eight of last nine series games; Raiders won 15-12 in Denver LY. Broncos won last five visits here, with four wins by 13+ points. NFL-wide, home teams are 19-14-1 vs spread in divisional games this season.


                      Monday's game
                      Bills (4-4) @ Seahawks (4-2-1)— Bills are 2-14 in game before their last 16 byes (5-4 vs spread as an underdog); they’re 4-1 this year when allowing less than 20 points, 0-3 when giving up 20+- they allowed 28-41 points in losses to Dolphins/Patriots last two weeks. Seahawks’ offense is struggling, with one offensive TD on 20 drives in last two games. Wilson is a great QB when he is mobile; he is playing hurt now, had 3 rushes for 11 yards in Superdome LW. Seattle is 23-13 in last 36 games as a home favorite, 1-2 this year; they’re 7-5 in this series, hammering Bills 50-17 in last meeting, which was in Toronto four years ago. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 2-5 vs spread. NFC West favorites are 3-5, 2-3 at home. Six of last seven Bills games went over total; under is 4-3 in Seattle games.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9

                        The Packers have played incredibly well at home this season, and welcome a Colts team that has struggled mightily to contain opposing offenses.

                        Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5, 43)

                        Eagles' clock-control skills vs. Giants' ToP dilemma

                        What a difference a year - and a new head coach - can make. The Eagles enjoyed some regular-season success in three seasons with Chip Kelly at the helm, but it was no thanks to their dismal possession statistics. But lo and behold, Philadelphia has learned how to hold onto the football - and should easily control the time of possession this weekend as they visit a Giants team still struggling to get first downs and extend drives.

                        The Eagles were abysmal in ToP with Kelly in charge, ranking last in each of his three years at the helm. That isn't the case at all under Doug Pederson, as Philadelphia ranks No. 1 in the league in average time of possession at 32:24 per game - more than six minutes better than any average recorded under Kelly. The difference-maker? Philadelphia ranks in the top 12 in both first downs per game allowed (19.4) and opponent third-down conversion percentage (38.37).

                        The Giants only wish they were in the same neighborhood. New York comes into this one ranked dead last in time of possession at 25:57; the San Francisco 49ers (26:09) are the only other team below 27 minutes on the season. The Giants have struggled to keep drives going, ranking 26th in first downs per game (18.9) and 30th in third-down conversion rate (32.61 percent). And if they can't improve on those numbers Sunday, it could be a long day for the home side.

                        Daily fantasy watch: RB Darren Sproles


                        Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (+7, 48.5)

                        Cowboys' early scoring barrage vs. Browns' first-half woes

                        The Dallas Cowboys haven't skipped a beat despite losing starting quarterback Tony Romo for at least the first half of the season. Rookie Dak Prescott has filled in admirably, while electrifying running back Ezekiel Elliott has lived up to his preseason hype by leading the NFL in rushing yards. Dallas has been especially dangerous in the first half of games this season, a trend that should continue this weekend against the struggling Cleveland Browns.

                        The Cowboys entered 2016 coming off a dismal campaign in which they averaged just 8.4 first-half points per game - thanks in large part to a carousel of journeyman quarterbacks that couldn't come close to matching Romo's production. Fast forward to this year, where Prescott and Elliott have helped Dallas become a first-half force, ranking third in the league with an average of 15.4 points before halftime. They're consistent, as well, averaging 16 first-half points at home and 14.7 on the road.

                        Thinking the Browns might offer some first-half resistance? Think again. On top of being below average in just about every measure, Cleveland has been a sieve in the first half of games so far this season, allowing 14.6 points on average before half, behind only Jacksonville, New Orleans and the New York Jets. And like Dallas, it hasn't made much of a difference where the Browns have played; they have surrendered an average of 14 first-half points at home and 15 on the road. This one could be decided early.

                        Daily fantasy watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott


                        Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 54)

                        Colts' penalty problems vs. Packers' elite discipline

                        The Packers come into this one with a healthy edge according to the bookmakers, and with good reason: They've played incredibly well at home this season, and welcome a Colts team that has struggled mightily to contain opposing offenses. And there's another reason why Green Bay should walk away with the victory in this one - it's a far more disciplined unit than Indianapolis, which is fortunate to have escaped its massive penalty troubles so far.

                        Indianapolis has repeatedly shot itself in the foot, incurring 64 accepted penalties through eight games - the fourth-highest tally in the league. The Colts have picked up at least seven flags in six of their eight games this season while racking up double-digit infractions twice; amazingly, they won both of those games, but they're playing with fire if they continue this penalty-happy trend. The season count includes 33 penalties on the offensive side of the ball.

                        Contrast that to the Packers' penalty situation, and the difference is night and day. Green Bay comes into this weekend having incurred just 41 penalties; only San Francisco and Kansas City have been penalized less. Their 345 total penalty yards against are 223 fewer than the Colts, and they've been flagged just 16 times on the offensive end. The Packers should have a decided penalty advantage versus Indy, and those extra yards could make a big difference.

                        Daily fantasy watch: QB Aaron Rodgers


                        Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (PK, 43.5)

                        Raiders' left-side lockdown vs. Broncos' D-line weakness

                        Sunday night's showdown between the Raiders and Broncos at Oakland Alamada Coliseum is a big one, with both teams eyeing sole possession of top spot in the AFC West. The little things could have a colossal impact on the outcome of the game, so both clubs will be looking for whatever advantage they can find - and the Raiders have a big one when it comes to the quality of the line play, at least on the left side.

                        The Raiders have fashioned one of the best offensive lines in the league, with none of their five linemen rated below 72.5 on Pro Football Focus. They're particularly skilled on the left side, where LG Kelechi Osemele (85.1) and LT Donald Penn (86.2) rank seventh and eighth, respectively, at their positions. They have made life a while lot easier for QB Derek Carr and the Oakland running game, which ranks fifth in the league in yards (932) and sixth in yards per carry (4.8).

                        The Broncos are no slouch on defense, led by CB Aqib Talib (90.8) and LE Von Miller (89.9). But the right side of the line has been vulnerable this season, with RE Shane Ray (74.3) ranked 54th at his position and RT Jared Crick (44.6) rated among the worst regular defenders in the league. Look for the Raiders to exploit this mismatch by repeatedly running Latavius Murray through the left side, where Osemele and Penn have clear blocking advantages.

                        Daily fantasy watch: RB Latavius Murray

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          NFL Underdogs: Week 9 pointspread picks and predictions

                          Matthew Stafford and the Lions may be heading to Minnesota at exactly the right time.

                          Oh boy, it’s going to be one hell of a week as the craziest Presidential campaign I can remember comes to a close Tuesday.

                          While I’m just an unbiased observer watching the goings-on from the safety of Canada (we’ll be much safer if that wall goes up), I can’t help but feel anxiety when it comes to the choice my American friends have to make this Tuesday. The Simpsons said it right, like they always do...


                          I also feel that way when having to make my underdog picks for this week, as we're in the midst of the “Bye Week Blues”. With only 11 games to choose from this week, the pickings are a little slim.

                          But fear not, it’s not just Kang and Kodos on the board - we've got the Detroit Lions.

                          I like the Lions and more specifically I like the way Matthew Stafford has been playing. But this pick is more about fading the team they go up against: the Minnesota Vikings.

                          This play would've seemed ludicrous just a few weeks ago, but that’s how quickly things change in the NFL.

                          Minnesota opened the season 5-0 SU and ATS behind the league’s top defense, but has since dropped two games in a row, scoring 10 points apiece in each of those losses. The Vikings offensive line is in shambles and the results can be found all over the field. Minnesota ranks 31st in rushing offense and Sam Bradford has been sacked 11 times in the last two games.

                          Then came the whammy. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner resigned. He will be replaced by Pat Shurmur, who was Bradford’s offensive coordinator in Philadelphia and St. Louis, which doesn’t give me that much confidence.

                          Meanwhile, the Lions have climbed back into the NFC North race and their four losses have come by an average of 4.5 points per game.

                          I know the Vikings defense is still intact, but there is no quarterback hotter than Stafford. He has nine touchdowns and no interceptions in his last four games and boasts a career-best 103.4 passer rating this season.

                          If the election were between Jim Bob and Shurmur, I pick Jim Bob every time.

                          Pick: Lions +6


                          New York Jets (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins


                          In the election for president of “who can stay irrelevant in the division longer,” everyone’s a winner.

                          The Jets and Dolphins both have bright spots and unfortunately for Miami they go up against each other in this matchup.

                          Dolphins’ running back Jay Ajayi will try and become the first running back in the post-Super Bowl era to rush for 200 yards in three consecutive games, but faces a Jets team that boasts the NFL’s top rush defense, allowing just 74 yards per game.

                          I’ll also take history in this matchup. The Jets are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings with the Dolphins and, while Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked bad this season (like, really bad), maybe a matchup with Miami is just what he needs.

                          Fitzpatrick tossed four touchdown passes in a 38-20 victory over Miami on November 29, with former Dolphins wideout Brandon Marshall reeling in nine receptions for 131 yards and two scores.

                          I don’t love it, but I’ll stick with the history books on this one.

                          Pick: Jets +3.5


                          Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (+3)


                          Once again, another matchup with candidates you don’t love either way, so this time around I’ll lean on some sports betting clichés.

                          While the Panthers got a much needed win last week, they could be in for a letdown. They're traveling across the country and are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road this season.

                          Plus, I love when teams with decent defenses are getting points at home.

                          If this one doesn't pan out, "Don’t blame me. I voted for Kodos".

                          Pick: Rams +3


                          Last Week: 1-2 ATS
                          Season: 14-10 ATS

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                          • #14
                            Essential Week 9 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

                            Can Joey Bosa and the Chargers D terrorize Marcus Mariota and the Titans? San Diego is currentl4 4-pt home chalk.

                            Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1, 44)

                            * Landry Jones struggled in a 27-16 loss to the Patriots, finishing 29 of 47 for 281 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Roethlisberger threw for at least three scoring passes in four of his first five starts and had nine TDs and zero picks in back-to-back wins over Kansas City and the New York Jets before he was hurt in a loss at Miami. Whoever starts at quarterback has the luxury of throwing to elite wideout Antonio Brown, who has 48 catches for 592 yards and five scores. Running back Le'Veon Bell has been outstanding since returning from his three-game suspension, leading the league with 147.2 yards from scrimmage per game.

                            * Quarterback Joe Flacco has struggled during the four-game skid with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions, and has only five scoring passes versus six picks on the season. "He’s still a guy that’s capable of hurting you in a lot of ways," Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin said. "His deep ball is exceptional. His short game, he’s getting it out as quick as he ever has. His pinpoint accuracy in small spaces in the short game is exceptional.” Wideout Steve Smith returned to practice on a limited basis Thursday for the first time since injuring his ankle on Oct. 9. Baltimore managed 11 yards rushing in a Week 7 loss at the Jets.

                            LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened his AFC North tilt as 2.5 favorites and that number has dropped to 1 with rumours Roethlisberger could return. The total opened at 43 and been driven up a full point to 44. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS:

                            • Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
                            • Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
                            • Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC North.
                            • Under is 8-1-1 in Steelers last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
                            • Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings.


                            Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland (7.5, 48.5)

                            * Prescott is one victory shy from becoming the third rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win seven straight starts (Ben Roethlisberger, 13 in a row in 2004; Kyle Orton, eight consecutive in 2005). A healthy dose of Dez Bryant helped Prescott's cause last week, as the explosive star had 113 receiving yards and a touchdown versus the Eagles in his first game since sustaining a tibial plateau fracture in his right leg on Sept. 25. Fellow wideout Cole Beasley was kept out of the end zone after scoring three touchdowns in his previous two contests.

                            * Terrelle Pryor is expected to have some help on the outside in the form of fellow wide receiver Corey Coleman, who will be "full speed ahead" for Sunday's game after sustaining a broken bone in his left hand during practice on Sept. 21. "We all know he is very explosive from the line of scrimmage and also when he gets the ball in his hands," Pryor said of the rookie, who had 104 yards and two touchdowns in his last game in Week 2. Pryor (hamstring), who is expected to play versus Dallas despite being limited in Thursday's practice, had six catches for 101 yards in last Sunday's 31-28 loss to the New York Jets

                            LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened the week as 7.5-point road favorites and were faded down to +7.0 mid-week before rising back to 7.5 Saturday morning. The total opened 46.5 and has risen two full points resting at 48.5. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS

                            * Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
                            * Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
                            * Under is 8-1 in Cowboys last 9 games on grass.
                            * Under is 7-1 in Browns last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.


                            Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44)

                            * Jacksonville’s offense has yet to top 400 total yards in a game and ranks 23rd in scoring and 26th in total offense, in large part because of one of the league’s least-productive ground attacks. Third-year quarterback Blake Bortles has put up decent numbers but also has thrown nine interceptions and hopes to see improvement after spending time tweaking his mechanics with private coach Adam Dedeaux. The defense is a major concern for the Jaguars, who gave up 494 total yards – 214 on the ground – against the Titans and have not forced a turnover in their last three games.

                            * Foles performed well when pressed into action last week, passing for 223 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-14 win at Indianapolis, but he could have a tougher time if the Chiefs can’t establish the run. With Jamaal Charles back on injured reserve following another knee surgery and Ware unlikely to play, Charcandrick West is set to carry the load. The offense might not need to do much if the defense performs the way it did last week, holding the Colts to 277 total yards – the second time in the last three games the Chiefs have held the opposition under 300 yards.

                            LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened the game as 7.5-point home favorites and has remained there all week. The total opened at 45 and dropped one point to 44. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS

                            * Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
                            * Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
                            * Over is 9-1-1 in Jaguars last 11 games in Week 9.
                            * Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
                            * Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


                            N.Y. Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 43.5)

                            * Ryan Fitzpatrick tossed four touchdown passes in a 38-20 victory over Miami on Nov. 29, with former Dolphins wideout Brandon Marshall reeling in nine receptions for 131 yards and two scores. Fellow wide receiver Quincy Enunwa (team-leading 36 catches, three touchdowns) found the end zone for the second straight week at the Browns on Sunday and had a season-best 93 yards receiving - highlighted by a 57-yard catch. Defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson has four sacks in the past three meetings and defensive tackle Leonard Williams (team-high six sacks) had a sack and a forced fumble in the last encounter.

                            * Cornerback Byron Maxwell dismissed allegations by Marshall that the veteran holds "every single play." "I might be doing something right now, huh?" Maxwell said of getting under the skin of the veteran receiver. "I'm going to play my game. ... I mean, it's fun, I guess. But I'm not worried about anything. I'm still focused on the game and what I gotta do to win. I'm cool." Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been anything but cool this season, but the 28-year-old looks to distribute the ball to Jarvis Landry (NFL sixth-best 46 receptions), Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker in a bid to exploit a Jets' secondary that has yielded an NFL-worst 289.1 yards per contest.

                            LINE HISTORY: Miami opened the week as 3-point home favorites and was quickly bet up to 4 before settling at 3.5. The total opened at 44 and dropped half point to 43.5. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS

                            * Jets are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
                            * Jets are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
                            * Under is 7-1 in Jets last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
                            * Under is 6-1-1 in Dolphins last 8 games in Week 9.


                            Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 42)

                            * Detroit's defense absorbed a blow as pass-rushing outside linebacker Armonty Bryant received a three-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Bryant sat out the first four games of the season for a similar violation and was subsequently waived by Cleveland before he was picked up by Detroit. Bryant was productive in his brief stint with the Lions, recording three sacks in four games after collecting 5.5 in 14 games with the Browns last season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has nine touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past four games and owns a career-best 103.4 passer rating.

                            * Bereft of a running game, quarterback Sam Bradford has been under siege in the losses at Philadelphia and Chicago, getting sacked a total of 11 times. There is the hope that things will change with the promotion of Shurmur, who was the offensive coordinator for both the Eagles and Rams when Bradford played for each team. "I think it helps," Shurmur said Thursday. "Anytime you have a relationship with someone, you can communicate smoother and quicker, so I think that certainly helps." Minnesota is ranked 31st in rushing at a paltry 71.9 yards per game, but its defense is permitting a league-low 14.9 points.

                            LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened as 6-point home favorites and rose to 6.5 before dropping to 5.5 and settled back at 6. The total opened at 41 and was bet up a full point to 42. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS

                            * Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
                            * Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
                            * Vikings are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
                            * Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.


                            Philadelphia Eagles at N.Y. Giants (-2.5, 43)

                            * Veteran Darren Sproles amassed 103 yards from scrimmage (86 rushing, 17 receiving) last week with fellow running back Ryan Mathews seeing his carries dwindle after a costly fumble in the previous contest. The 33-year-old Sproles looks to ignite Philadelphia's mediocre rushing attack (17th) against New York, against which he has recorded four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving) in his last five games. The Eagles significantly are better at rushing the passer, as defensive end Brandon Graham and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox each have four of the team's 22 sacks this season.

                            * Victor Cruz doesn't have fond memories of the last time he faced Philadelphia, as the 29-year-old wideout tore his patellar tendon in his right knee in 2014. "Obviously, in the back of my mind, I think about it," Cruz told reporters this week about the injury. "It's different circumstances, different year (and different stadium), but I'd be lying if I didn't say it's on my mind at some point." The Giants' ground attack could use a jolt as Rashad Jennings has been limited to a total of 67 yards rushing in his last three games, although he erupted for 170 yards and a touchdown in his last encounter with the Eagles.

                            LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened this NFC East battle as 3-point home favourites and has dropped half point on Monday and has remained at 2.5 ever since. The total opened at 44 and has been bet down a point to the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS

                            * Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
                            * Over is 8-0 in Eagles last 8 road games.
                            * Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
                            * Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.


                            Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (+3, 44)

                            * Carolina has moved the ball with ease, especially when Cam Newton has been healthy, but has been set back by a league-worst 17 turnovers. The return of Jonathan Stewart has helped the offense, as the veteran has rushed for multiple touchdowns in consecutive games after going for 95 yards and two scores against Arizona. The Panthers have been stout against the run, but the revamped secondary has turned in a couple of dreadful performances, albeit against much stronger passing attacks than it will see Sunday.

                            * Los Angeles possesses one of the most punchless offenses in the league, which has prompted questions about whether No. 1 draft pick Jared Goff soon will get a chance under center. Journeyman Case Keenum has thrown 10 interceptions and just eight touchdown passes, and the lack of a dangerous passing game has made things tough for running back Todd Gurley, who averages a paltry three yards per carry. The defense has kept the Rams in games and held the Giants to 232 total yards last time out but has forced just one turnover during the three-game skid after recording nine takeaways in the first four contests.

                            LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened up as 2.5-point home dogs, but has been bet up quickly to 3 and remained there all week. Since opening at 45.5, the total has been bet down a point to the current number of 44. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS

                            * Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
                            * Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
                            * Over is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
                            * Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.


                            New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 53)

                            * Brees in on pace for his fifth 5,000-yard season and leads the NFL, averaging 338 yards passing per game while throwing 18 touchdowns against just five interceptions. His numbers, however, are vastly different on the road as the 16-year veteran out of Purdue has six touchdowns and three picks in three road games. Emerging wide receiver Michael Thomas has 16 receptions in the past two games and with 500 yards receiving is one of three wideouts on the team (Brandon Cooks 530 yards, Willie Snead 439 yards) on pace to reach 1,000 yards on the season.

                            * Since replacing Blaine Gabbert under center, Colin Kaepernick has completed 46 percent of his passes (29-of-63) for 330 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception while rushing 17 times for 150 yards (8.8 yards per carry) but the Niners have scored just 33 points in his two starts. Hyde has been inconsistent on the season, averaging 3.9 yards a carry, but his presence takes some of the onus off a passing unit that is last in the league with an average of 161.4 yards a game. "I think Colin's ability in the run game has given us a little bit of an added bonus," coach Chip Kelly said. "It forces you to say, 'Hey, if I'm a defensive coordinator, do I want to play man and now not have our back turned to the offense and then have the quarterback be able to take off?'"

                            LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened this NFC matchup favoured by 3-points and were faded as high as 4.5, but have settled back down at 4. The total opened at 51 and has been bet up two full points to the current number of 53. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS:

                            * Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
                            * Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
                            * Over is 7-0 in Saints last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
                            * Over is 7-0 in 49ers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


                            Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 54.5)

                            * Protection problems were an issue last season as well, as Luck was limited to seven games with a lacerated kidney, but he could be getting ready to play behind another patchwork offensive line with guard Joe Reitz in the concussion protocol. Indianapolis' issues extend to the other side of the ball as well, and the pass defense ranks 31st in the league with an average of 288 yards allowed. The secondary figures to be at less than full strength again on Sunday, with safety Mike Adams (groin) and cornerback Vontae Davis (concussion) sitting out Wednesday's practice.

                            * Green Bay, which can match injury lists with any team in the league, was without three key members of the secondary (Sam Shields, Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins) while getting burned by Matt Ryan and Atlanta's passing attack last week. The Packers expect to get healthier - at least on the outside - this week on offense, with wide receivers Randall Cobb (hamstring) and Ty Montgomery (illness) returning to practice this week after sitting out against the Falcons. Green Bay also is thin at running back as Rodgers (60 yards on six carries) led the team in rushing last week.

                            LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened the week favoured by 7-points at home and that number has risen to 7.5. The total started at 53 and has been bet up to the current number of 54.5. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS:

                            * Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
                            * Packers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
                            * Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
                            * Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.


                            Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-4, 47)

                            * Mariota's performance against the Jaguars earned him a spot in an exclusive group, as he joined Fran Tarkenton, Dan Marino and Drew Bledsoe as the only quarterbacks in league history to throw at least two TD passes in four straight games before the age of 23 - accomplishing the feat three days prior to his birthday. Murray also played his way into the NFL record book last week, becoming the sixth player ever - and first since Tampa Bay's Doug Martin in 2012 - to rush for at least 750 yards and record eight overall touchdowns in his first eight contests with a team. The 28-year-old, who was a full participant in practice on Thursday after being limited a day earlier due to an injured toe, is on pace to gain over 1,500 yards for the second time in his six-year career.

                            * Antonio Gates, who ranks second on the all-time list among tight ends in touchdowns, raised his career total to 107 - four behind leader Tony Gonzalez - in last week's loss to Denver and has caught a scoring pass in five of his last six meetings with Tennessee. Melvin Gordon, who enters Week 9 with a league-leading 10 touchdowns (eight rushing), has gained 276 yards from scrimmage and recorded three scores over his last two contests. Bosa is second on the team in sacks to Melvin Ingram (five) while Casey Hayward leads the club with four interceptions - the most by a Charger in a season since 2011.

                            LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened as 4-point home favorites and were faded all the way up to 5.5, but has returned back to 4. The total opened at 48 and has been bet down to 47 on Monday and remained there ever since. Check out the complete line history here.

                            TRENDS

                            * Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
                            * Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
                            * Over is 5-0 in Titans last 5 games overall.
                            * Favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

                              Six most popular picks in Week 9 of the Westgate Super Contest in Las Vegas:

                              1) Denver Broncos, even (695)

                              2) Pittsburgh Steelers, even (605)

                              3) New Orleans Saints, -3.5 (575)

                              4) Carolina Panthers, -3 (525)

                              5) Philadelphia Eagles, +2.5 (474)

                              6) Chiefs -7/Titans +5 (472)

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