NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thursday, October 13 - Monday, October 17)

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in this week’s Westgate Super Contest:

1) Chiefs (even) 704

2) Seahawks (-6.5) 450

3) Packers (-4.5) 448

4) Texans (-3) 424

5) Eagles (-2.5) 410

6) Falcons +6.5 (404)– Lot of action both ways in this game.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 16


Terrible weather in Seattle today. 51% chance of rain showers and 20 mph winds. Seahawks -6.5 vs Falcons. Total is at 45 points.


67% chance of rain for Orchard Park with winds nearing 20 mph. Buffalo -8 vs 49ers with total at 44.5 points.


54% chance of rain in Oakland today. Raiders opened -2 and money on Chiefs pushed line to Raiders +1.5. Total at 46 points.

[Udog]

NFL Underdogs: Week 6 pointspread picks and predictions

After a Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay, the Falcons have rattled off four consecutive wins, going 4-0 against the spread in the process.

Welcome to a new experience for me. I am currently sitting in the San Diego International Airport, getting ready to return home from a mini vacation where I watched the Chargers get the job done as 3-point home pups.

So while I'm technically still on vacation, I can't let you guys miss out on a week of underdog picks. I'll get the job done, just like the Chargers did this week. Even if it is a bit an abbreviated version, starting with another team hoping to get the job done this week: the Atlanta Falcons.

After a Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay, the Falcons have rattled off four consecutive wins, going 4-0 against the spread in the process. The Falcons were dogs in all four of those games and, to top it all off, they beat up on last year’s two Super Bowl teams in consecutive weeks.

Atlanta faces another tough task this week going on the road to take on Seattle. It’s a matchup that pits the NFL’s top ranked offense against the No. 1 stop unit. If the Falcons can get the job done this week, they could finally be considered “for real”.

Pick: Falcons +7


Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+3)

The Saints got the job done in Week 4 and I like them to do the same in Week 6. New Orleans was down 13 on the road in San Diego with less than 10 minutes to go and managed to pull off a furious comeback, topping the Chargers 35-34 as 3.5-point dogs.

While Carolina gets Cam Newton back this week, the Panthers have looked a mess this season - even with the MVP under center. The Panthers have dropped three straight and are 1-4 SU/ATS this season after going 15-1 SU last season.

Additionally, I know the Saints aren't as intimidating at home as they used to be, but I love getting the home chalk in this spot, especially against a division rival. Oh yeah, the Panthers are also 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.

Pick: Saints +3


San Francisco 49ers (+8) at Buffalo Bills

This is more of a gut reaction than anything else. The numbers say go with the Bills, who are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, while the Niners haven't covered since Week 1. But I like the narrative for San Fran and their old starter/new starter in this spot.

Colin Keapernick returns under center for the Niners and will look to fight back to keep his starting role. If nothing else, Kaeprnick will want to show other teams he still has what it takes to make it as a starter in the NFL.

I think this is too many points for a Buffalo team that, while it has looked better the last few weeks, hasn't been favored by more than a field goal.

Pick: 49ers +8

Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season record: 9-6 ATS (60%)

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks in this week’s Westgate Super Contest:

1) Chiefs (even) 704- W

2) Seahawks (-6.5) 450- L

3) Packers (-4.5) 448- L

4) Texans (-3) 424- T

5) Eagles (-2.5) 410- L

6) Falcons +6.5 (404)– W

Season record: 11-24-1

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Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Patriots 35, Bengals 17— New England averaged 9.6, 9.4 yds/pass attempt in Brady’s first two games back; only 10 their 61 plays in this game came on 3rd down. Cincinnati has lost four of its last five games, allowed 8 TDs on foes’ last 16 drives.

Titans 28, Browns 26— Bad beat if you laid 7.5 with Tennessee; Browns scored 13 points in last 2:07 to cover spread, as they fall to 0-6 SU (3-3 vs spread). Titans averaged 10.4 yards/pass attempt, best in league so far this week. Browns went 3/out seven times, scored the other five times (three TD, two FG) they had the ball.

Giants 27, Ravens 23— All six Raven games were decided by 6 or less points. Baltimore scored with 2:04 left to take lead, but neglected to cover Beckham (DB fell down) on a 4th-and-1 a few minutes later and he went 66 yards for GW TD. Beckham caught eight balls for 222 yards and two TDs.

Lions 31, Rams 28— All six Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; their three home games were decided by a total of five points.

Bills 45, 49ers 16— When Buffalo fired their OC after Week 2, they said they wanted to run the ball more; Bills won their fourth straight game here, running ball 44 times for 312 yards- they converted 8-13 on 3rd down, have outscored last three opponents 45-9 in second half.

Saints 41, Panthers 38— New Orleans led 21-0 with 4:00 left in first half, but Carolina tied game with 2:58 left in game, before Saints hit 52-yard FG with 0:11 left for the win. Saints won their last two games, despite allowing 72 points in those games- they’ve allowed 34+ points in four of five games. Defending NFC champs are 1-5.

Redskins 27, Eagles 20— Philly scored two TDs, one on the NFL’s first TD on a kick return this year, then the defense scored one, but the Eagle offense ran 45 plays for 239 yards; they had 114 yards in penalties, no TDs, as Washington had 67-45 edge in plays run. Yardage here was 493-239. Redskins, like Buffalo, have now won four in a row after an 0-2 start.

Dolphins 30, Steelers 15— Miami was +2 in turnovers, had 14-yard edge in field position and beat Pittsburgh for just second time in last seven meetings, first time at home since 1998. Yardage was 474-297 Miami; after the game, Steelers said Roethlisberger will have an MRI on his knee, which would make Landry Jones the starter next week.

Jaguars 17, Bears 16— Chicago was in red zone four times, but scored only one TD; they led 13-0 after three quarters, but left door open for Jaguars, who hit a 51-yard TD pass with 2:49 left for a stunning comeback win. Bears were +2 in turnovers but had 10 penalties for 87 yards.

Chiefs 26, Raiders 10— Andy Reid is now 16-2 SU off a bye week, 12-4 vs spread in last 16 post-bye games; his Chiefs ran ball for 183 yards on a rainy day in Oakland. KC has now won six of last seven games against its arch-rival, winning four of last six visits to Oakland.

Cowboys 30, Packers 16— Its none of my business, but Dak Prescott has to stay the starting QB in Dallas, as long as they keep playing like this- they waxed the Packers on the day when Brett Favre got his Hall of Fame ring. Cowboys won/covered five games in a row with a rookie QB drafted in the fourth round. Highly unlikely story.

Seahawks 27, Falcons 26— Refs swallowed their whistle on Falcons’ last gasp pass to Julio Jones— Sherman grabbed his arm, no flag was thrown. Seattle led 17-3 at the half, but Atlanta stormed back and had ball around midfield up 24-23 with 4:00 left, before Ryan threw a pick that turned game in Seahawks’ favor. Falcons gained 269 yards in this game, just in the third quarter. These teams could meet again in January.

Texans 26, Colts 23 OT– Indy led 23-9 with under 4:00 left, then Texans came alive and Osweiler gets a big win, keeping Houston alone in first in AFC South. Next week the Texans head to Denver, Osweiler’s homecoming after he bolted the Broncos last winter. Bad loss for Indy, just a game you cannot lose, being up 14 points in last 4:00.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 17

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NFL Monday Night Football betting preview: Jets at Cardinals
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Carson Palmer set career highs in all major categories and was in the conversation for league MVP in 2015.

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 46)

Carson Palmer is poised to return to the lineup when the Arizona Cardinals host the skidding New York Jets on Monday Night Football. After sitting out last week, Palmer has been cleared from the league's concussion protocol in time to face the Jets, who are mired in a three-game skid in which all the losses have come by double digits.

Drew Stanton stepped in for Palmer at San Francisco on Oct. 6 and guided Arizona to a 33-21 victory that halted a two-game losing streak. The Cardinals (2-3) have already lost as many games as last season, when they won posted 13 victories and won the NFC West title before losing to Carolina in the conference title game. Jets coach Todd Bowles, who went 10-6 in his first campaign with New York, knows what he's up against in Arizona, serving under Bruce Arians as the team's defensive coordinator in 2013-14. “With a guy who taught me almost half my football life, you try not to let him down, and in order not to let him down, I have to win the game,” Bowles said jokingly of facing Arians.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened as 7.5-point home favorites and the line hasn't moved all week. The total hit the betting board at 46, was bumped up slightly to 46.5, and returned to the opening number on Saturday afternoon. View complete line history here.

INJURIES:

Jets - WR J. Marshall (Prob Mon, shoulder), RB M. Forte (Prob Mon, knee), WR B. Marshall (Prob Mon, knee), G B. Winters (Prob Mon, concussion), TE A. Seferian-Jenkins (Ques Mon, ankle), CB D. Roberts (Ques Mon, shoulder), CB D. Revis (Ques Mon, hamstring), TE B. Bowman (Ques Mon, knee), C N. Mangold (Ques Mon, knee), DE S. Richardson (Ques Mon, knee), LB D. Harris (Doub Mon, hamstring), QB B. Petty (Out Indefinitely, shoulder), WR E. Decker (I-R, shoulder), DE L. Thomas (I-R, shoulder), T B. Giacomini (Elig Week 7, back), RB R. Morris (I-R, shoulder), WR D. Smith (Elig Week 7, knee), DE J. Obioha (I-R, undisclosed).

Cardinals - LB K. Minter (Pron Mon, concussion), QB C. Palmer (Prob Mon, concussion), DT R. Nkemdiche (Ques Mon, ankle), TE D. Fells (Ques Mon, shoulder), DT E. Stinson (Ques Mon, toe), DT J. Mauro (Ques Mon, chest), G M. Iupati (Early Nov, ankle), G E. Mathis (I-R, ankle), S T. Branch (Elig Week 12, groin), RB C. Johnson (Elig Week 12, hernia), LB A. Fua (I-R, knee), TE T. Niklas (I-R, wrist), S D. Eskridge (I-R, arm), CB M. Jenkins (I-R, knee), CB E. Bouka).

ABOUT THE JETS (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS, 3-2 O/U): New York has scored 33 points during the three-game losing streak and was blanked in the second half of last week's 31-13 loss at Pittsburgh, although quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick did not throw an interception after he was picked off nine times in the previous two games. Losing wide receiver Eric Decker, who had 12 touchdown receptions in 2015, to season-ending shoulder surgery is another blow to the passing attack. The Jets have not been helped by a suspect running game as Matt Forte rushed for 100 yards and three touchdowns in their lone win at Buffalo in Week 2, but has been held to 80 yards in the past two weeks. New York ranks No. 2 against the run (68.4 yards per game) but is getting gouged through the air (303.0 yards).

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Arians wants to see improvement from Palmer, who set career highs in all major categories and was in the conversation for league MVP for much of last season but is off to a slow start with six touchdowns and five interceptions through his four starts. “Just keep throwing it,” Arians said. “See if they can keep catching it and throw it a little farther on the deep balls.” The Cardinals do have the luxury of a standout running back in David Johnson, who rumbled for 157 yards and two touchdowns at San Francisco and set a franchise record by going over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of the first five games. Arizona managed only 36 sacks last season, but is already halfway to that mark, led by linebacker Markus Golden with six.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 7-1 in Jets last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 home games.

CONSENSUS: 52 percent of picks are on the Jets to cover on the road while 53 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Patriots at Steelers headlines Week 7, but there's a catch

Ben Roethlisberger was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee and ruled out for Week 7 against the Patriots.

Week 7 of the NFL season includes a great AFC clash that looked like it would feature two of the best quarterbacks of this era. But that won’t happen now. We talk about a few key opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (no line)

Pittsburgh has looked Super Bowl-contender great in its four wins, but equally as awful in its two losses – a blowout at Philadelphia in Week 3, and Sunday’s setback at Miami. The Steelers (4-2 SU and ATS) had only eight points until late in the fourth quarter and lost to the Dolphins 30-15 laying 7.5 points.

But the bigger news came postgame. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee in the second quarter, but returned in the third quarter, though he didn’t play well. Afterward, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his left knee and ruled out for this week’s game. He will have surgery this week, which will determine how much longer he’s out.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady’s return to action has been everything New England expected, and perhaps more. After throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a rout at Cleveland, Brady was back at it Sunday, with 376 yards and three TD passes in a 35-17 dusting of Cincinnati as a 7.5-point home favorite. The Patriots are now 5-1 SU and ATS.

“Big Ben was initially listed as questionable, but is now out indefinitely,” Childs said. “The Steelers will be forced to start perennial journeyman Landry Jones, and I’m not sure we can open this line high enough. I really haven’t given the game much thought because of the Steelers’ quarterback situation, but the line will be well over a touchdown.”

New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams (+3)

Sunday morning will come a few hours earlier for NFL fans – 9:30 a.m. on the East Coast, and a wicked 6:30 a.m. here in Vegas. That’s when the Giants and Rams will square off for their game in London.

New York (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) got back to .500 on Sunday, thanks to the sometimes flighty Odell Beckham. The flashy wideout had eight catches for a whopping 222 yards and two TDs, including a 66-yard score that gave the Giants a 27-23 win over Baltimore as a 3.5-point home favorite.

Los Angeles (3-3 SU and ATS) has followed its three-game SU and ATS upswing by going 0-2 SU and ATS the past two weekends. On Sunday at Detroit, the Rams lost 31-28 as a 2.5-point pup.

“The Rams are going to be on the road for 10 days, having played in Detroit on Sunday, now going to travel straight to London,” Childs said. “While I believe that will help them get acclimated to the time and weather in London, that’s a long time to be away from home and family.

“This is truly a neutral-field game, and we have the Giants the higher power-rated team, so we opened them a solid 3-point favorite.”

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5)

Through six weeks, there’s only one unbeaten team left in the NFL, and it’s Minnesota. The Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS and are coming off their bye week, following a 31-13 victory over Houston as a 6-point chalk on Oct. 9.

Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Carson Wentz and Philadelphia have cooled off from their 3-0 SU and ATS start, losing SU and ATS each of the past two weeks. The Eagles were a 3-point favorite Sunday at Washington, but lost outright 27-20.

“Man, how the mighty have fallen,” Childs said. “The Eagles were the people’s champ two weeks ago, but now after back-to-back losses, I have a feeling bettors are going to be very shy about backing this team. The Vikings are coming off a bye, playing some great, great football.

“I had this game in the pick-’em range before the Eagles took the field against the Redskins, but after that below-average performance, we decided to open Vikings -2.5, and all the early money is on them. It didn’t take us long to get to Vikings -3, our current number.”

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

NFC West rivals and playoff teams from last year collide in the Week 7 Sunday night game. Seattle (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) edged Atlanta 26-24 Sunday as a 7-point fave for its third consecutive SU win. Arizona (2-3 SU and ATS) still has some Week 6 work to do, hosting the New York Jets in the Monday nighter.

“A huge game and pretty much a must-win for the Cardinals if they want any chance to win their division,” Childs said. “The Cardinals play on Monday night, but we opened them a small 1.5-point home favorite, and a lot will depend how they look in their game against the Jets. The Seahawks are playing some really good football and are coming off a nice win over one of the hotter teams in the NFL.

“I have a feeling the public is going to back the Seahawks, but we’ll see.”