Announcement

**Udog** · 10-10-2016, 10:21 AM

NFL opening line report: The Falcons face another very tough test in Week 6

In back-to-back weeks, Atlanta has beaten both participants in last year’s Super Bowl. Coming off their win over Carolina, the Falcons were in control throughout at Denver, winning 23-16.

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champions looking to rebound from their first loss since last December. We talk about the opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3)

Denver had to start rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch on Sunday against Atlanta, and it was rough sledding. Lynch was sacked six times and threw an interception, and the Broncos (4-1 SU and ATS) lost 23-16 as 3.5-point home favorites.

San Diego (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) had its chances to beat Oakland or at least force overtime, but had a late field goal blocked in a 34-31 road loss as a 3.5-point underdog.

“We had a tough time with this number,” Childs said. “The Chargers are just beat up and arguably the most injured of any team in the NFL. They looked flat-out gassed in the second half against Oakland and now have to play on a short week.”

Childs said the opening number for this Thursday night game comes with an asterisk, not knowing whether Lynch is starting or Trevor Siemian can return from a shoulder injury.

“The Broncos have serious questions at quarterback, and without definitive word as to who will start, Lynch or Siemian, we have placed half-limits on this prime-time matchup until we get word,” Childs said. “Before Sunday’s game, Lynch wasn’t much of a downgrade from Siemian. After what we saw against the Falcons, we were absolutely wrong. He’s a big-time downgrade, in my opinion.

“If it’s Siemian who starts, we’ll go to Broncos -4. If it’s Lynch, then the Broncos go down to 2.5-point road favorite.”

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-9)

Tom Brady returned in Week 5, and it was like he never left. Brady threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-13 rout of Cleveland as New England (4-1 SU and ATS) covered the 10-point spread. Cincinnati went off as a 2.5-point chalk at Dallas, but lost 28-14 to fall to 2-3 SU and ATS.

“I’m not sure we can open this line high enough,” Childs said. “The Patriots looked like world beaters with Brady back in charge, and the Bengals looked pathetic against the Cowboys. But as good as the Pats looked, it was against arguably the worst team in the NFL and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

“The Bengals are in a must-win. They simply can’t afford another loss, and you have to think they bring a desperate effort. We know the public is going to bet the Patriots, so as much as we believe the number should be around 7 or 7.5, we hung 9 and will charge a bit of a tax for Pats backers.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (OFF)

Dallas continued rolling behind its rookies, quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott threw for 227 yards and a TD, and Elliott racked up 134 yards and two TDs on just 15 carries – including a 60-yard score – as the Cowboys beat Cincinnati 28-14 catching 2.5 points at home.

Green Bay (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) topped the New York Giants 23-16, pushing as a 7-point home fave. But because that was the Sunday night game, Childs said Sportsbook.ag was holding off on posting the line for Cowboys-Packers.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

In back-to-back weeks, Atlanta has beaten both participants in last year’s Super Bowl. Coming off their big home win over Carolina, the Falcons (4-1 SU and ATS) were in control throughout at Denver on Sunday, winning 23-16 as a 3.5-point ‘dog.

However, Seattle will have an extra week of preparation for this contest, since it had a bye in Week 5. The Seahawks (3-1 SU and ATS) topped the New York Jets 27-17 laying 1 point on the road in Week 4.

“This is a very difficult spot for the Falcons, off their win against the Broncos,” Childs said. “Atlanta has to travel on back-to-back weeks and play a rested Seahawks team. While the Falcons looked impressive on the road, it was against a rookie quarterback who looked overwhelmed in his debut as a starter.

“We opened the Seahawks a solid 7-point favorite and immediately took sharp money on the Falcons. We got off 7 and went down to Seattle -6.5, which is our current number. We’ve had good two-way action at 6.5, and I believe we’ll be at this number for a while.”

**Udog** · 10-10-2016, 10:22 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, October 13

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DENVER (4 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 4) - 10/13/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 16

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CINCINNATI (2 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (4 - 1) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 226-184 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 226-184 ATS (+23.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 176-134 ATS (+28.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 101-74 ATS (+19.6 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (3 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 3) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 3) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (4 - 1) at MIAMI (1 - 4) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 97-68 ATS (+22.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 57-33 ATS (+20.7 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-39 ATS (+22.1 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
MIAMI is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
MIAMI is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) at CHICAGO (1 - 4) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 44-67 ATS (-29.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 4) at BUFFALO (3 - 2) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (3 - 2) at DETROIT (2 - 3) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 174-216 ATS (-63.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-216 ATS (-63.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-170 ATS (-61.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 56-82 ATS (-34.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 127-164 ATS (-53.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 5) at TENNESSEE (2 - 3) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON (3 - 2) - 10/16/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 80-110 ATS (-41.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 3-1 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (4 - 1) - 10/16/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 42-76 ATS (-41.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 11-26 ATS (-17.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-99 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-99 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 54-79 ATS (-32.9 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-47 ATS (-27.7 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-99 ATS (-38.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (4 - 1) at SEATTLE (3 - 1) - 10/16/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 31-58 ATS (-32.8 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 39-63 ATS (-30.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (4 - 1) at GREEN BAY (3 - 1) - 10/16/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 3) at HOUSTON (3 - 2) - 10/16/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 17

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NY JETS (1 - 4) at ARIZONA (2 - 3) - 10/17/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 10-10-2016, 10:23 AM

NFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 13

8:25 PM
DENVER vs. SAN DIEGO
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Denver

Sunday, October 16

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TENNESSEE
Cleveland is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games at home
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. MIAMI
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh

1:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. DETROIT
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. NY GIANTS
Baltimore is 7-12-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing Baltimore
NY Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games on the road
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Carolina18-5-1 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
New Orleans is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games

4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games

4:25 PM
ATLANTA vs. SEATTLE
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. GREEN BAY
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Indianapolis's last 11 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Monday, October 17

8:30 PM
NY JETS vs. ARIZONA
NY Jets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-10-2016, 11:04 AM

NFL

Monday, October 10

Big change in Baltimore: Marc Trestman is OUT as Ravens OC. Ravens went 7-12-2 ATS 9-12 O/U with Trestman calling plays.

With the Vikings latest win they've covered 10 in a row and are an incredible 19-2 ATS in their last 21. They're on a Bye in Week 6.

**Udog** · 10-11-2016, 10:13 AM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 6 NFL lines are going to move

If you like the Texans jump on them now in their AFC South battle against Indy this week.

Game to bet now

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3.5)

Bill O’Brien has to be pulling out his hair about now. His Texans have been able to beat mediocre and poor teams (Tennessee, Kansas City, San Diego) but have shriveled up into the fetal position against better competition (New England, Minnesota). Now comes a real AFC South test against the Colts, and an opportunity to take control of the division and put Indy into a good-sized hole.

But nothing is guaranteed, not after Brock Osweiler stunk out the joint against the Vikings – 19 for 42, one interception, four sacks. This is definitely not a must-win division game for Houston, but if the Texans are going to replace Indianapolis as the AFC South heavyweight, it would be a nice get against a team that has more problems than even the Texans do. The early line (Texans -3.5) has held firm and doesn’t seem likely to move.

Game to wait on

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

This game will give everyone a pretty good idea if the Falcons are playing with fool’s gold. So far, so good, with the Falcons pummeling teams for the last month after getting ambushed by the Bucs on opening day. Over the last two weeks Atlanta has defeated both of last season’s Super Bowl teams, scoring 48 on the Panthers and defeating the Broncos in Denver in a game that was not as close as the final (23-16) margin.

Importantly to bettors, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS, thanks to rejuvenated QB Matt Ryan – who is by far the league’s top-rated passer and over just five games has 177 more passing yards than the No. 2 passer (Andy Dalton). A win at Seattle would propel the Falcons into the upper tier of contenders, and bettors like the 6 they’re getting so much that the number might melt to 5.5.

Total to watch

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (45.5)

Things are slipping away from the snake-bitten Chargers, who can’t seem to close the deal. They’ve lost four close games (Kansas City, New Orleans, New Orleans and Oakland). The O/U line on SD games this year has averaged 50, and the Chargers have covered that number four times. The problem is that Denver is breaking in another new QB (Paxton Lynch), who will be playing just his third game.

If you think that the Chargers’ 8th-ranked offense will be able to move the ball against the Broncos’ 6th-ranked defense, an over play should be considered. Key factor here is that the game will be in San Diego, where the Chargers tend to score a lot.

**Udog** · 10-11-2016, 03:06 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 6

Thurs – Oct. 13

Denver at San Diego, 8:25 PM ET
Denver: 8-1 ATS in road games in games played on a grass field
San Diego: 8-19 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses

Sun – Oct. 14

Cincinnati at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Cincinnati: 19-34 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half
New England: 6-0 ATS in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game

Baltimore at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 43-26 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
New York: 12-26 ATS after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game

Carolina at New Orleans, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 33-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games
New Orleans: 7-20 ATS off an extremely close road win by 3 points or less

Pittsburgh at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 37-19 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
Miami: 1-9 ATS after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

Jacksonville at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville: 10-2 OVER in road games in games played on a grass field
Chicago: 6-16 ATS in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game

San Francisco at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET
San Francisco: 1-7 ATS after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game
Buffalo: 6-1 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game

LA Rams at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Los Angeles: 15-44 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game
Detroit: 14-4 ATS after being outgained by 100 or more total yds 2 consecutive games

Cleveland at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 19-7 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive losses
Tennessee: 3-13 ATS in home games

Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia: 12-2 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses
Washington: 28-48 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:05 PM ET
Kansas City: 10-2 ATS in road games off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more
Oakland: 8-19 ATS in home games after a win by 6 or less points

Atlanta at Seattle, 4:25 PM ET
Atlanta: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 8-19 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

Dallas at Green Bay, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 6-17 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games
Green Bay: 14-2 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games

Indianapolis at Houston, 8:30 PM ET
Indianapolis: 16-4 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games
Houston: 6-0 OVER in October games

Mon – Oct. 17

NY Jets at Arizona, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 32-17 UNDER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game
Arizona: 1-11 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10

**Udog** · 10-11-2016, 03:21 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's game
Broncos (4-1) @ Chargers (1-4)— Denver coach Kubiak (migraines) is out for this game, which is bigger problem than usual since he calls plays; QB Siemian is expected back after missing a game. Broncos won nine of last ten series games, winning last five in row, all by 7+ points- they’ve won their last five visits here. San Diego is 1-4 despite scoring 30.4 pts/game; all four of their losses are by 4 or less points or in OT. Chargers turned ball over 10 times in last three games; five of last six TDs they allowed were on drives of less than 50 yards. Denver is 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road favorite; last 8+ years, San Diego is 5-9 as a home dog. Over is 4-1 in Charger games, 3-2 in Denver games. Chargers are allowing 20.6 second half pts/game.

**Udog** · 10-12-2016, 10:56 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Thursday, October 13

Denver @ San Diego

Game 103-104
October 13, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
134.731
San Diego
133.375
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+3 1/2); Over

**Udog** · 10-12-2016, 10:58 AM

NFL Week 6 lines that make you go hmmm...

Colin Kaepernick takes over under center for the 49ers but will that matter when San Fran comes to Buffalo in Week 6?

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 6:

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3, 45)

The first twist of Week 6 comes on Thursday night. Denver is at San Diego where the Chargers have been downright brutal to their faithful. Throw out Denver’s last game as it didn’t have its starting quarterback ready to go. But what I see here is a pretty stereotypical, mass following trend of going Over on a marquee game.

In typical fashion, the tip-off was the initial move lower than the opening 46. I’ve see this a million times. This is a sure bet that money will fly on the Over as soon as Nevada parlay cards are printed and carved into stone. Every week, I suggest to the Nevada sportsbooks to pump up the favorites and totals on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games.

But this 45 looks suspect. With all due respect for Denver’s defense, San Diego’s lowest total output this season has been 48 points. The other scores landed 65, 69, 52, and 60. Before last game, the Broncos were scoring at an even 30 points per game. The Chargers will be in full crisis mode on national TV and should provide some fireworks. Denver will keep pace. This looks to go Over so take this as early as you can because this is only going one way come kickoff.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 46)

This is another game that I think oddsmakers were a little light with the total. Before last game, Atlanta’s game scores hit 55, 63, 77 and 81. Now, that’s a trend I like to see especially when the opposition is starting to crank on offense as well.

Both quarterbacks are in sync, especially Ryan who has thrown 12 TDs and only two interceptions to date. His 121.6 rating is hard to overlook. We know Seattle can go toe-to-toe with anyone and these two teams suggest a high-powered, open-game strategy. Eight of Atlanta’s 11 different receivers are averaging in double-digit yards per catch.

I would have had this total around 50 but if the sportsbook gods believe this is lower, I think they’re playing with fire. If you like it, take the Over early in a game that should be a fun one to watch.

San Francisco at Buffalo Bills (-8, 44)

Speaking of trends that I like to see, you can only read the San Francisco-Buffalo one way. San Francisco is going through its predicted meltdown and we get a quarterback change before the upcoming game in Orchard Park, with Colin Kaepernick starting over Blaine Gabbert. As a longtime resident of the Buffalo area, I know the winds can play havoc on the passing game and this is where I see the margin come into play.

Buffalo has been winning with the run game and as long as QB Taylor doesn’t lose the game, the team is gelling nicely into a well-balanced offensive threat. Their defense will be stronger with the return of DT Marcell Dareus and the momentum of three straight wins spilling over to a home field spells nothing but dominance against a troubling San Francisco team.

San Francisco will be forced to play long ball when it gets behind and this is where Buffalo’s defense and special teams will shine. If the Niners change quarterbacks during the game, this may cause even more stagnation. Especially if any non-football related matters come into play.

Frankly speaking, ride the team that’s doing well, equipped with the momentum and one that will be looking at a game they consider a “must-win”. San Francisco will have its day but the red flags are flying all around this team for now. Nothing points to a San Francisco turnaround this Sunday.

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, 47)

Both the Jets and Cardinals are vastly underperforming. Arizona just doesn’t look ready to go and, coupled with the fact that Carson Palmer won’t be at 100 percent if playing at all, the Cardinals are unable to get out of their own way just yet.

We all know the Jets are not as bad as their record suggests but a deeper look may reveal that their 1-4 start may be justified. New York has lost to Pittsburgh, Seattle, Cincinnati and Kansas City: not exactly your cellar dwellers of the league. Arizona beat San Francisco and Tampa Bay, not exactly the league’s elite. Getting +7.5 with a semi-quality team that has to be thinking “must-win” at this point seems like a steal. Bettors like to see motivated teams on the slate going into battle with their money.

The Jets have capable players and should get a better game out of QB Fitzpatrick. The track will be fast in Arizona and we’re expecting the Jets offense to click and keep pace with whatever Arizona has to offer - especially if Drew Stanton is the signal caller for the Cardinals. If you like the Jets, get the hook while you can and have a sweat on Monday night.

**Udog** · 10-13-2016, 08:44 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 13

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Broncos at Chargers
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Phillip Rivers (NFL fourth-best 1,469 yards) is at the controls of the league's second-ranked offense (30.4 points) and recorded his second four-touchdown performance of the season on Sunday.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3, 45.5)

Thursday's nationally televised contest pitting the reigning Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos against the San Diego Chargers would hold even more water had the latter followed up the first 58 minutes of their games by avoiding being doused over the final two. After seeing three leads evaporate after the two-minute warning, the snake-bitten Chargers look to snap a 10-game skid versus AFC West rivals on Thursday when they host the Broncos.

"You can't make this stuff up," quarterback Philip Rivers said after San Diego was felled by a botch hold on a game-tying attempted field goal in a 34-31 setback to Oakland on Sunday. "You think, 'Is there any other way we can find a way to do this?' " The path to right the ship will be tough versus Denver, which has won nine of the last 10 encounters between the clubs and is seething after absorbing its first loss of the season with a 23-16 setback to Atlanta. Quarterback Trevor Siemian (shoulder) is expected to be at the helm Thursday after sitting out versus the Falcons, but special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis will serve as interim coach with Gary Kubiak being diagnosed with a complex migraine condition.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened the betting week for this Thursday night contest as 2.5-point road favorites but were bet up to 3-point faves on Monday afternoon - which is where they sit now. The total opened at 45.5 and hasn't moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Broncos (-2.5) - Chargers (+3) + home field (-3) = Broncos -2.5

INJURY REPORT:

Broncos - S J. Simmons (Prob Thurs, wrist), T D. Stephenson (Prob Thurs, calf), TE V. Green (Prob Thurs, calf), QB T. Siemian (Prob Thurs, shoulder), CB K. Webster (Ques Thurs, hamstring), LB D. Ware (Late Oct, elbow), DE V. Walker (I-R, knee), C S. Brenner (I-R, concussion).

Chargers - P D. Kaser (Prob Thurs, hip), G O. Franklin (Ques Thurs, knee), LB D. Perryman (Ques Thurs, shoulder), T J. Barksdale (Ques Thurs, foot), T K. Dunlap (Ques Thurs, undisclosed), G C. Hairston (Ques Thurs, groin), RB D. McCluster (Ques Thurs, hamstring), CB C. Mager (Ques Thurs, shoulder), CB B. Flowers (Out Thurs, concussion), CB J. Verrett (Out For Season, knee), S J. Addae (Late Oct, collarbone), LB N. Czubnar (I-R, knee), LB M. Te'o (I-R, achilles), RB D. Woodhead (I-R, knee), WR K. Allen (I-R, knee), WR J. Herndon (I-R, knee), DT Z. Carlis (I-R, knee), T T. Johnstone (I-R, undisclosed), RB B. Oliver (I-R, achilles), G D. Clark (I-R, knee), C C. Watt (Elig Week 7, knee), LB T. Marcordes (I-R, undisclosed), TE J. Cumberland (I-R, achilles), DT C. Wray (I-R, foot), NT S. Lissemore (I-R, shoulder), WR S. Johnson (I-R, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: This may come as a huge surprise...but it's expected to be sunny with a zero percent chance of precipitation on Thursday evening in San Diego. Temperatures will be in the mid-70's with humidity values hovering around 75 percent.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Although the quarterback situation has been answered for Thursday, Denver still has many questions regarding its running game after it failed to exploit the Falcons' 30th-ranked defense. C.J. Anderson has been unable to top 50 yards rushing in any of the last three games and mustered just three carries longer than four yards last week heading into a clash with the league's eighth-best rushing defense (83.4 yards per contest). Demaryius Thomas has found the end zone in each of his last three games overall and had a touchdown reception in each of his last three meetings with San Diego.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U): Rivers (NFL fourth-best 1,469 yards) is at the controls of the league's second-ranked offense (30.4 points) and recorded his second four-touchdown performance of the season on Sunday, but four turnovers proved too much to overcome. Former first-round selection Melvin Gordon has struggled to find the handle on the ball, fumbling for the second time in as many weeks on Sunday and eighth time in 19 career games. "(Gordon) can't put the ball on the ground," coach Mike McCoy said via the San Diego Union-Tribune. "(His) fumbles won't affect his usage now. He's our back, and he's going to get going." The 23-year-old Gordon had trouble getting going in his previous encounter with Denver, fumbling twice while being held to 55 yards in a 17-3 setback on Dec. 6.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
* Chargers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Broncos last 6 games in Week 6.
* Under is 8-1 in Chargers last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Diego.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Broncos with 64 percent of the picks on the road favorites. Over is leading the way in totals wagers with 57 percent of the selections.

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**Udog** · 10-13-2016, 07:35 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

Sunday, October 16

Indianapolis @ Houston

Game 275-276
October 16, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
131.450
Houston
132.255
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+3 1/2); Under

Dallas @ Green Bay

Game 273-274
October 16, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.525
Green Bay
140.035
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 4
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-4); Under

Atlanta @ Seattle

Game 271-272
October 16, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
134.332
Seattle
144.869
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 10 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 6
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-6); Over

Kansas City @ Oakland

Game 269-270
October 16, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
134.096
Oakland
130.551
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 3 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 1
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+1); Over

Philadelphia @ Washington

Game 267-268
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
133.830
Washington
135.847
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+2 1/2); Over

Cleveland @ Tennessee

Game 265-266
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
124.054
Tennessee
128.037
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 7 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+7 1/2); Over

Los Angeles @ Detroit

Game 263-264
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
128.273
Detroit
135.040
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 7
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-3); Under

San Francisco @ Buffalo

Game 261-262
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
132.085
Buffalo
137.169
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 5
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 8
44
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+8); Over

Jacksonville @ Chicago

Game 259-260
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
127.368
Chicago
125.412
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+2 1/2); Under

Pittsburgh @ Miami

Game 257-258
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
136.266
Miami
130.824
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 8
48
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+8); Under

Carolina @ New Orleans

Game 255-256
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
135.371
New Orleans
128.371
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 6 1/2
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); N/A

Baltimore @ NY Giants

Game 253-254
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
127.054
NY Giants
131.502
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 4 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(-3); Over

Cincinnati @ New England

Game 251-252
October 16, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
132.255
New England
138.701
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+9); Over

Monday, October 17

NY Jets @ Arizona

Game 277-278
October 17, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
131.038
Arizona
136.955
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 6
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 9
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+9); Over

**Udog** · 10-13-2016, 07:37 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Sunday's games
Bengals (2-3) @ Patriots (4-1)— Brady returned LW with 406 passing yards, three TDs in an easy win; 13-7-3 in last 23 games as a home favorite. Cincinnati got spanked in Dallas LW, giving up 180 rushing yards in game that was 28-0 in 4th quarter; Bengals are just 20-66 on 3rd down; they’re 13-6-3 in last 22 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year. Patriots won five of last six series games, with last four wins by 14+ points; Bengals lost last six visits to Foxboro- their last win here was in 1980. AFC East teams are 7-7 vs spread outside their division, 0-2 as home favorites. NFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-division tilts, 1-3 as an underdog. Under is 4-1 in New England games this season, 3-1 in Bengals’ last four games.

Ravens (3-2) @ Giants (2-3)— Both teams struggling; Baltimore fired OC Trestman Monday, after scoring 8 TDs with 8 turnovers in first five games, all of which were decided by 6 or less points- they’re 11-45 on 3rd down in last three games. Former Lions HC Mornhinweg takes over as OC. Ravens are 2-0 on road, winning by 5 at Cleveland, 2 at Jacksonville. Giants lost last three games, scoring two TDs on 22 drives in last two games; they’re 1-1 at home, with two games decided by total of 5 points. Ravens won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 19+ points. Under is 4-1 in Giant games, 3-2 in Baltimore games. Ravens are 6-1 in last seven games as a road dog; they’re underdog for first time this year. Giants are 2-5 in last seven games as a home favorite.

Panthers (1-4) @ Saints (1-3)— Carolina traveling on short week after ugly loss Monday, where they were -4 in turnovers, still only lost on last play of game. Panthers allowed 34.5 pts/game in losing first two road games; they’re 5-11 in last 16 games as a road favorite, 0-2 this year. Saints lost six of last eight games with Carolina, who won three of last four visits here. Road underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in NO games this year; over last 7+ years, Saints are 3-1 as home underdogs. Favorites are 6-0-1 vs spread in Saints’ last eight post-bye games, with NO losing 24-23/24-6 in last two post-bye tilts, after winning five in row. New Orleans is 7-11-3 in last 21 games where spread was 3 or less points; Carolina is 6-2 in last eight such games.

Steelers (4-1) @ Dolphins (1-4)— Will probably be more Steeler fans than Miami fans here; in last two games, Dolphins have run only 84 plays for 422 yards, their opponents 139 plays for 761 yards. Miami is -9 in turnovers (2-11) in its last four games. All four Steeler wins are by 8+ points; Pitt has 10 TDs on 21 drives in last two games- over last 8+ years, they’re 12-21-1 as a road favorite. Home side lost last three series games; Steelers won last three visits here and five of last six overall in series- last tine they lost here was 1998. Three of last four Miami games went over total, under is 3-1 in last four Steeler games. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 7-9 vs spread in non-divisional games. Dolphins are 2-3 in last five games as a road underdog.

Jaguars (1-3) @ Bears (1-4)— Jaguars had rough bye week after hurricane pounded their town last week; they’ve covered five of last six post-bye games. Jax is 6-11-1 in last 18 games as a road underdog, 0-1 this year- they beat Colts in London in last game- three of their four games this year went over total. Jags are 9-17 in last 26 games where spread was 3 or less points. Chicago racked up 532 yards in 29-23 loss at Indy LW, but scored only one TD in three trips to red zone- they scored 17 or less points in four of five games. Hoyer threw for 397 yards LW, 9.2 yards/attempt; Bears are 8-22-3 in last 23 games where spread was 3 or less. NFC North teams are 7-6 vs spread outside the division, 2-2 as home favorite. AFC South teams are 7-8, 2-3 as road underdogs.

49ers (1-4) @ Bills (3-2)— Kaepernick gets first start of year at QB for 49ers after their 4th loss in row LW; he gives them more mobility, little more of a deep passing threat, but is less accurate on short passes. Niners allowed 83 points in losing both its road games- they’re 3-10 in last 13 games as a road underdog, 0-2 this year. Buffalo won its last three games after an 0-2 start; they’re +9 in turnovers for year, +8 in last three games. Bills scored 30+ points in three of last four games, running ball for 178.3 yds/game in three games since they changed OCs- they’ve scored a defensive TD in three of last four games. Buffalo is 3-2 as home favorite under Ryan, 0-1 this year. 49ers won last two series games 10-3/45-3; they’ve split four visits here.

Rams (3-2) @ Lions (2-3)— Underdogs are 5-0 vs spread this year in Detroit games, 4-1 in LA’s games. Lions are 4-3 in last seven series games, but lost 21-14 in St Louis LY, when they didn’t have a play in game longer than 18 yards. Rams lost five of last seven visits to Motor City; they won last two road games by total of 9 points- this is their first game on artificial turf this season. LA is 7-6-1 in last 14 games as a road underdog. Detroit’s five games have all been decided by 7 or less points, their two home games were both decided by a single point; Lions are 8-3-2 as home favorites under Caldwell, 0-1 this year. Injury to Rams’ best CB Johnson (ankle) could be a big problem for their defense, which has allowed 28+ points in three of five games.

Browns (0-5) @ Titans (2-3)— Cleveland is 0-5 with three losses by 11+ points (2-3 vs spread). Browns are 4-7 in last 11 games as a road underdog. Kessler figures to start again here, with McCown as backup. Tennessee allowed only six offensive TDs in five games, but they’ve given up a punt return TD in each of last two games and offense has also allowed two. Titans are 2-7-2 in last 11 games as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; they’ve run ball for 180 yards/game last three weeks. Browns are 5-2 in last seven games with Titans; they beat Tennessee 28-14 LY, with punt return TD and +3 turnover margin- they won field position by 14 yards. AFC North teams are 7-9 vs spread in non-division games, 1-3 as an underdog. AFC South home favorites are 4-2 in non-divisional games. Three of last four Cleveland games went over total.

Eagles (3-1) @ Redskins (3-2)— Philly allowed three TDs on eight drives in its post-bye loss LW. after allowing two TDs on 30 drives during its 3-0 start. Washington won/covered last three games after an 0-2 start, outscoring foes 37-9 in second half; Redskins are 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as a home favorite. Skins won last three series games; Eagles lost three of last four visits here. Three of last four series games were decided by exactly three points. Philly lost 24-23 in Detroit LW after an early bye; they’re 18-10 in last 28 games as a road underdog, 1-0 this year. Eagles outscored their opponents 70-13 in second half of games. Washington is 10-13 in last 23 games where spread was 3 or less points; Eagles are 2-6 in last eight such games. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in divisional games.

Chiefs (2-2) @ Raiders (4-1)— Reid is 11-4 vs spread in last 15 post-bye games, 2-1 with KC. Chiefs won five of last six games with Oakland, with 4 of 5 wins by 14+ points; they’re 3-2 in last five visits here, but Chiefs are already 0-2 on road this year, scoring two TDs on 25 drives in losses at Houston (19-12), Pittsburgh (43-14). KC has been outscored 66-23 in first half this season. Raiders are 4-1 with three wins by 3 or less points, which breeds confidence; Oakland also allowed 27+ points in four of five games (over 4-1). Oakland is 6-15 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or less points, but 2-0 this year; Chiefs are 13-7 under Reid in such games. An average of 34.6 points/game have been scored, just in second half of Raider games this year.

Falcons (4-1) @ Seahawks (3-1)— 70% chance of rain here, as red-hot Falcons play out west for second week in row. Atlanta won/covered its last four games, all as an underdog- they’ve scored 18 TDs on 60 drives this year, scoring 32.7 pts/game in its three road wins. Falcons covered seven of last eight tries as a road underdog (3-0 this year). Seattle is 4-2 vs spread in last six post-bye games; they’re 26-14 in last 40 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Bye week gave Wilson extra week for his legs to heal; Seahawks have had soft schedule so far, allowing 13.5 pts/game. Rams are probably best team they’ve played, so Falcons are step up in competition. NFC South road underdogs are 4-1 vs spread this year in non-divisional games.

Cowboys (4-1) @ Packers (3-1)— Dallas won/covered its last four games, running ball for 157.7 yds/game the last three weeks- they’ve scored 25.5 pts/game in road wins at Washington/SF. Rookie QB Prescott is playing well beyond his years. Cowboys are 19-12 as road dogs under Garrett, 1-0 this year. Packers are 3-1 but have scored only one second half TD this season- unusual. Pack ran ball for 135 yds/game the last two games; they’re 10-6-2 in last 18 games as a home favorite, 0-1-1 this year- both their home wins this season are by two points. Green Bay won last five series games; three of five wins were by 10+ points. Cowboys lost last three visits here; their last win at Lambeau was in 2008. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 4-2.

Colts (2-3) @ Texans (3-2)— Indy is 23-5 vs Houston, winning six of last seven meetings; Colts are 9-4 here, winning last three visits by 3-5-7 points. Texans out gained Indy by 121-115 yards in LY’s meetings, but lost field position by 11/6 yards. Home side won/covered all five Houston games this year; Texans won their home games by 9-7-7 points, allowing four TDs on 36 drives, but Houston has only six offensive TDs in five games. Indy allowed 30+ points in all three of its losses; they’ve scored 13+ points in second half of every game. Four of Colts’ five games went over the total. In their wins, Indy averaged 7.5, 8.1, 6.8 yds/pass attempt; in losses, 3.8/4.0. Houston held three of its five opponents under 6.0 ypa. Texans are -5 in turnovers last three weeks.

Monday's game
Jets (1-4) @ Cardinals (2-3)— Palmer (concussion) is expected back at QB here; Redbirds had three extra days to prep- they played on Thursday LW. Arizona scored 40-33 points in its two wins, 21 or less in its losses; they’re +7 in turnovers in wins, -8 in losses. Jets allowed 23+ points in all five games this year; they lost their last three games, outscored 37-7 in second half; they’ve allowed 7.8+ yds/pass attempt in four of five games, exception being game at Kansas City when Jets turned ball over eight times and KC didn’t have to try too hard on offense. Gang Green won last six series games; four of six were in New Jersey. Jets won last two visits here; their last loss at the Cardinals was in St Louis in 1971. NFC teams are 14-8 SU against AFC teams so far this season.

**Udog** · 10-13-2016, 07:52 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 6

The Steelers come into Week 6 with a sensational 49.21 percent conversion rate on third downs - rate surpassed only by the Dallas Cowboys, who have extended drives on half their third-down situations.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+3, 53)

Panthers’ putrid secondary vs. Saints’ home cooking

This isn't the 2015 edition of the Carolina Panthers - not by a long shot. Just one season after reaching the Super Bowl, the Panthers are in serious jeopardy of missing the postseason altogether after opening the season with losses in four of their first five games. Inconsistency on offense certainly hasn't helped, but the major difference between this season and last is a pass defense that has looked largely overmatched in the absence of backfield anchor Josh Norman.

Several metrics work against the Panthers' defense, but the one that generates the greatest concern heading into this week's tilt in New Orleans is how often Carolina is getting beaten for significant gains. The Panthers rank 30th in average opponent yards per completion (12.4); only the Oakland Raiders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been worse. But changes are in the offing, with the Panthers cutting loose Bene Benwikere, who was expected to take over as the team's top corner.

Yet, while Benwikere had a dismal start the season, his absence this week only thins out the Carolina secondary heading into an encounter with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. Saints quarterback Drew Brees is particularly ruthless at home, averaging 12.2 yards per completion - sixth in the league - while posting a 112.3 passer rating at Mercedes-Benz Superdome (T-5). It's probably going to be a long day for the Panthers in the Big Easy.

Daily fantasy watch: QB Drew Brees

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 47)

Steelers’ third-down excellence vs. Dolphins’ 3D struggles

Ben Roethlisberger and Heinz Field go together like a juicy hamburger and a nice dollop of ketchup (I'm sure you get the reference.) But when Big Ben hits the road, things can get downright ugly. Yet, while Roethlisberger boasts one of the largest home/road chasms among NFL quarterbacks, his proficiency at converting third downs and extending drives - no matter where he plays - will serve him well Sunday against a Dolphins team that hasn't been able to do the same.

The Steelers come into Week 6 with a sensational 49.21 percent conversion rate on third downs - rate surpassed only by the Dallas Cowboys, who have extended drives on half their third-down situations. And the Steelers have been even better on the road so far this season, connecting on 52 percent of their third downs. That means a whole lot of extended drives for a team that ranked a dismal 24th in third-down conversion rate a season ago.

Contrast that to the pitiful Dolphins offense, which enters Sunday's encounter ranked second-last in third-down conversion rate at 29.09 percent. That's even worse than in 2015, when Miami ranked 30th in third-down success (30.73 percent). An inability to extend drives has been the Dolphins' most significant undoing over the first five games; they're the worst team in the league by a wide margin in average time of possession (24:04), nearly 6 1/2 minutes lower than the Steelers' rate.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Le'Veon Bell

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (PK, 47)

Chiefs’ sluggish starts vs. Raiders’ stingy 1Q defense

The focus in this one will be how the Chiefs, fresh off a bye, will be able to manufacture points against a pass offense that has hemorrhaged points like few other teams in the league. Observers will also be keeping an eye on the Kansas City backfield, with Jamaal Charles having had two more weeks to recover from knee surgery. But this one could come down to whether the Chiefs can overcome a disturbing trend of dreadful first-quarter performances.

Kansas City enters its second divisional game of the season having scored just 10 points in the opening quarter of its first four games; only the Arizona Cardinals, who are still looking for their first 1Q points of the season, have been more inept. The Chiefs have struggled mightily despite having a first-quarter time of possession north of 50 percent; they ranked fifth in first-quarter last season en route to an impressive 11-5 record.

The Raiders won't make things easy Sunday afternoon. Oakland has limited opponents to a pair of field goals over the first five opening quarters it has played last season, making it the stingiest first-quarter team in the NFL. And continuing that trend Sunday will be of utmost importance to the Raiders, who are allowing the second-most points in the second half (17.6). With the Chiefs surrendering just 6.5 second-half points per game, grabbing an early lead is critical for Oakland.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Spencer Ware

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 45.5)

Julio Jones' diminished role vs. Seahawks' shutdown pass defense

Anyone who said prior to the season that the Falcons would be the runaway leader in points through Week 5 was either a major Atlanta apologist, or saw something the rest of us didn't. Led by a rejuvenated Matt Ryan and the most potent two-headed rushing attack in the majors, the Falcons have racked up 175 points through five games. And they've done so without much of a contribution from receiving star Julio Jones, who is in for a brutal day against a relentless Seattle pass defense.

Jones sits third in the NFL in receiving yards with 517, but 300 of those came in one magical performance against the Panthers in Week 4. He has had more than five catches just once, and has seen fewer than nine targets four times. The Falcons have managed to succeed despite an under-reliance on their top offensive weapon, but in order to keep the good times rolling, Ryan will need to lean on Jones as teams key in on the running game.

That might not happen in Seattle, where a well-rested Seahawks team awaits. Quarterbacks to face Seattle have a collective passer rating of 65.6 - the second-lowest mark in the NFL. The Seahawks have permitted just one passing touchdown on the season, while recording a sack on 8.76 percent of their defensive snaps, the fifth-best rate in the league. Jones might break out again one of these weeks, but it probably won't happen in the Pacific Northwest.

Daily fantasy watch: Seahawks D/ST

**Udog** · 10-16-2016, 08:53 AM

Essential Week 6 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Houston Texans have been dismal on the road but look to remain perfect at home when they host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night.

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-8, 44)

* Controversial quarterback Colin Kaepernick makes his first start in nearly a year as the San Francisco 49ers attempt to halt their string of four consecutive losses when they visit the streaking Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Kaepernick, who has become more notable for his protest of the national anthem than his ability on the field, will start for the first time since a setback against the then-St. Louis Rams on Nov. 1 as he replaces Blaine Gabbert under center.

* Buffalo is riding a three-game winning streak during which it has yielded fewer than 20 points in each contest. The Bills have scored 30 or more points twice on their run, which began after the firing of offensive coordinator Greg Roman. Buffalo is seeking its first string of four straight victories since opening the 2008 season at 4-0.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened as -7.5 home favorites but that line jumped to -9 when Kaepernick was announced as the starter for San Francisco. The spread sat at -9 for most of the week until coming down to -8 on Saturday morning. The total opened at 44 and hasn't moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in 49ers last 6 road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games following a straight up win.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-1.5, 46)

* Jacksonville has been idle since holding off Indianapolis in a game at London two weeks ago. The victory was much needed for a team which hoped to earn a playoff berth for the first time since 2007, but opened the season with losses in three games that it felt it could win. Jacksonville changed its blocking scheme last game and it paid immediate dividends as the Jaguars ran for 136 yards against the Colts, which was nearly as much as it mustered in its first three games.

* Brian Hoyer will make his fourth straight start as the Chicago Bears host the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday with both teams searching for their second win of the season. Hoyer, who replaced Jay Cutler after the veteran signal-caller suffered a thumb injury, has been superb in notching three straight 300-yard passing games without an interception but the Bears are still off to their worst start since 2005.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened as 2-point home favorites and by Tuesday morning that line has jumped up to -2.5. On Friday morning that line dropped drastically to -1 and has since began to trickle back in the Bears' direction at -1.5. The total opened at 47 and has dropped a full point to sit at 46 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games.
* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Over is 4-0 in Jaguars last 4 games in October.
* Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games following a straight up loss.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3, 43.5)

* The Rams experienced the opposite in Week 5, losing 30-19 to visiting Buffalo in spite of a season-high 345 total yards – in large part because of three turnovers, the last of which was an interception by Case Keenum that was returned for a touchdown. “We made some plays on third down, we had nine explosive plays against a really good defense, and we had 23 first downs,” Rams coach Jeff Fisher told reporters. “You can take the 32nd in the league and write all you want about it, but this offense is improving.” The Rams have won two of the last three meetings, including a 21-14 victory last season in St. Louis in which Todd Gurley rushed for 140 yards and two touchdowns.

* The Detroit Lions haven’t been able to maintain much success on offense, but they might not need too much production from that side of the ball to get back to .500. The Lions aim for a second consecutive victory when they host the offensively challenged Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The Lions snapped a three-game skid with a 24-23 win over previously undefeated Philadelphia last week despite another uneven performance from the offense.

LINE HISTORY: The Detroit Lions opened the betting week as 3-point home favorites and the total hit the betting board at 44. Heading into Sunday morning, neither number has moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
* Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 games on fieldturf.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+7.5, 48)

* While Antonio Brown (NFL-leading 37 receptions, league high-tying five TDs) is a constant, the Steelers are expected to usher slot receiver Eli Rogers into the lineup with Sammie Coates (hand laceration) in question after posting a career-high 139 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-13 win over the Jets. "I feel like I was on the verge of becoming a factor a team needed to account for," said Rogers, who has nine receptions for 100 yards and one touchdown in three contests. Mammoth tight end Jesse James had a season-high six receptions last week and has found the end zone in three of his last four games.

* Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph hasn't liked what he's seen from Pro Bowl defensive end Mario Williams and cornerback Byron Maxwell this season, saying the former "has got to play harder; he’s got to play better," while stating the latter "has not played overall well." Williams only has seven tackles and one sack this season, without registering one of either last week as Miami was gashed for 235 yards on the ground in a 30-17 loss to Tennessee. Maxwell was benched two games ago, but a knee injury to rookie Xavien Howard will send him back into the lineup with the enormous task of shadowing Brown rumored to be on his plate.

LINE HISTORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers opened the betting week as 7.5-point road favorite at Miami. The spread dropped to the key number of 7 briefly on Saturday morning but was quickly bet back up to 7.5 by Saturday afternoon. The total opened at 48, was reduced as low as 47 during the week, and settled back to the opening number of 48 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
* Dolphins are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 vs. AFC.
* Under is 6-1 in Steelers last 7 vs. AFC.
* Over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-7.5, 47.5)

* Two of Cincinnati's losses came to division rival Pittsburgh and defending Super Bowl champion Denver, but last week's no-show was startling as it fell behind by 28 points in the third quarter at Dallas. Quarterback Andy Dalton tops the AFC with 1,503 yards and No. 1 target A.J. Green has a conference-leading 518 yards, but the absence of injured tight end Tyler Eifert and an inconsistent running game continues to plague the offense. Running back Jeremy Hill was limited to 12 yards on four carries after aggravating a shoulder injury, but is expected to play Sunday. Former Patriots wideout Brandon LaFell is coming off an eight-catch, two-touchdown effort in Dallas.

* Brady aired it out 40 times last week and immediately established a rapport with No. 2 tight end Martellus Bennett, who had six receptions for 67 yards and three touchdowns. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, who missed the first two games due to a hamstring injury and had one catch through the first four contests, broke out with five receptions for 109 yards at Cleveland. Offseason acquisition Chris Hogan also made an impact with the return of Brady, hauling in four passes for 114 yards. New England ranks 13th overall in total defense, two spots below Cincinnati, but the Patriots are fourth in the league with an average of 14.8 points allowed, more than seven fewer than the Bengals.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened as 8-point home favorites and, other than a brief bump to -8.5, the spread was steady all week until Saturday when the Pats' line was reduced to -7.5. The total hit the board at 47 and rose slightly to 47.5 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 7-1 in Bengals last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+2.5, 53)

* The Panther announced on Saturday that quarterback Cam Newton will return for Sunday's game against the Saints. Newton suffered a concussion during the Panthers’ 48-33 loss at Atlanta in Week 4 and missed Monday night’s 17-14 setback against Tampa Bay, which dropped Carolina to 1-4 a year after it won its first 14 games en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Along with Newton, the Panthers hope to get running back Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) back on Sunday, but they could be without receiver Kelvin Benjamin (knee).

* New Orleans ranks last in the league in total defense and 31st in scoring defense, but it held San Diego to 38 rushing yards and forced three turnovers. They’ve had an especially tough time stopping the pass, however, which could be a problem if Newton is able to go. Drew Brees and the offense have been boom-or-bust, putting up 507 and 474 total yards in two games but being held under 300 in the other two.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point road favorites and during the week that line was dropped to 2.5. The total hit the betting board at 53 and hasn't moved all week. Can Newton's participation was factored into the lines right from the beginning of the week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week.
* Over is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Saints last 8 home games.
* Panthers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 meetings in New Orleans.

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (-3.5, 44.5)

* Mornhinweg is expected to put more emphasis on the running game in an effort to open up more play-action passes. Flacco enters Week 6 leading the NFL in passing attempts with 216 but is 31st among 32 qualifying quarterbacks with an average of 5.94 yards per attempt and has connected with receivers on only 12 passes of 20 or more yards. The defense remains solid but could be without a key contributor in linebacker C.J. Mosley, who leads the team with three interceptions and is second with 29 tackles but is dealing with a hamstring injury suffered last Sunday and has not practiced this week.

* Manning is having trouble developing a connection with mercurial receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who caught his first touchdown pass last week but has only 27 receptions despite 51 targets. Manning also could use some help from a running game that is missing Shane Vereen (triceps) and Rashad Jennings (thumb), who "has a better chance of playing this week than he had last week," coach Ben McAdoo told reporters after Wednesday's practice. The Giants have issues on the back end of the defense as well, with cornerbacks Eli Apple and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie both questionable due to groin injuries.

LINE HISTORY: The Giants opened as 3-point favorites and that point spread held steady on the key number all week until Saturday when the line was bumped up to -3.5. The total hit the board at 43.5 and heading into Sunday morning the current number is 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games overall.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 43.5)

* Things are so bad for the Cleveland Browns that they've used five different quarterbacks and brought in embattled former Baylor coach Art Briles to help an offense clearly in disarray. The Browns, who have lost seven straight and 14 of their last 15 games, are the NFL's only winless team as they visit the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. Briles was fired by Baylor amid a sexual assault scandal involving several members of the school's football team and will serve as an offensive adviser for the Browns.

* For some reason Mariota has been a better quarterback on the road than he is at home (11 TDs, 12 interceptions, 76.7 passer rating at home; 15 TDs, 3 interceptions and a 100.6 rating on the road). DeMarco Murray, who leads the NFL with 31 rushing touchdowns and is second with 4,129 yards since 2013, has helped turn Tennessee into an efficient ball-control offense with 461 yards on the ground for the NFL's second-ranked rushing offense. Sunday begins the first of three straight home games for the Titans, who promise not to look past the Browns. "We're not looking at them as a bad opponent, or any of these teams coming up, but it's definitely an opportunity to get some wins," said Tennessee defensive tackle Karl Klug.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened as 7-point home favorites against the struggling Browns and by the end of the week that number was up to -7.5. The total hit the board at 44 and came down slightly to 43.5 heading into Sunday. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Titans are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3, 45)

* Running back Ryan Mathews looks to atone for his costly fumble in the fourth quarter against Detroit when he faces Washington, versus which he scored in his last encounter and looks to exploit a defense yielding an NFL third-worst 130 yards per game on the ground. Jordan Matthews has been held in check with just six catches over his last three games, but hauled in that many receptions for 104 yards and a touchdown in his last meeting with the Redskins. The 24-year-old didn't face Josh Norman in that contest, but was limited to just three catches for 14 yards by the stud cornerback in a 27-16 loss to the Carolina Panthers last season.

* DeSean Jackson has mustered just four catches in his last two games but could get untracked versus his former team, against which he has 13 receptions for 283 yards and a touchdown in three games since leaving the Eagles following the 2013 season. Jackson currently is in a contract year and revealed that his once ice-cold relationship with Philadelphia has thawed, most noticeably after Doug Pederson replaced Chip Kelly as the team's coach. Fellow wideout Pierre Garcon found the end zone last week and has scored in each of his last two encounters with the Eagles. Running back Matt Jones was limited to just 31 yards on 14 carries in Sunday's 16-10 win over Baltimore, and will face a third-ranked defense allowing just 73.3 yards per game on the ground.

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened the betting week as 2-point road faves and that line gradually crept up throughout the week to settle on the key number of 3 heading into Sunday. The total opened at 44.5 and was bumped up to 45 on Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Redskins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
* Over is 8-0 in Eagles last 8 vs. NFC.
* Over is 7-0 in Redskins last 7 games on grass.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+1.5, 46)

* The Chiefs are hoping their bye week has helped them recover from a 43-14 trouncing at the hands of Pittsburgh in Week 4. Kansas City has a winning streak on the line Sunday, as it has captured six consecutive meetings with AFC West rivals. Alex Smith has been a major factor in Kansas City's recent success against the Raiders, completing 61 percent of his passes with 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions en route to posting a 5-1 record. Smith has been even better in Oakland, recording nine TD passes without a pick while registering a 68-percent completion rate.

* The Oakland Raiders look to extend their winning streak to four games when they host a bitter rival in the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Oakland has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL thus far, entering Week 6 tied with Denver atop the AFC West thanks to a perfect 3-0 road record and its ability to pull out close games. Each of the Raiders' five contests this year has been decided by seven points or fewer, with their four victories coming by a total of 12. Oakland has not had much success of late against division-rival Kansas City, which has won five of the last six meetings.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened as 2-point home favorites which was quickly reduced to -1.5 on Monday morning. On Tuesday morning the line dropped all of the way down to a pick 'em and the spread fully jumped the fence to the Chiefs' side on Thursday to 1.5 - which is where it sits coming into Sunday. The total opened at 46.5 and is currently 46. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Chiefs last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Under is 15-1 in Raiders last 16 games in Week 6.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 47.5)

* Ezekiel Elliott has run roughshod over the NFL to begin his rookie season, but the fourth overall pick of the 2016 draft will face his sternest test to date on Sunday as his Dallas Cowboys visit the Green Bay Packers and their top-ranked run defense. "Always excited for a challenge, that's what competitors love," said Elliott, who leads the league with 546 rushing yards after rolling up 134 on the ground with two touchdowns as Dallas won its fourth straight last Sunday. Dak Prescott had a pair of touchdowns (one rushing, one throwing) last week and has an NFL rookie-record 155 passing attempts without an interception, prompting many in the rabid fan base to question whether he should remain at the helm when veteran quarterback Tony Romo returns from his back injury.

* While Elliott is averaging a robust 5.01 yards per attempt, the stingy Packers are yielding just 2.0 per carry and 42.8 per game - although they have some questions within their own backfield. Eddie Lacy is uncertain if he'll play on Sunday after exiting last week's 23-16 win over the New York Giants with an ailing ankle and backup James Starks is nursing a knee issue and dealing with a death in the family. The only two running backs on the roster, Lacy and Starks combined for 195 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Green Bay's 28-7 rout of Dallas on Dec. 13. Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked as dominant as in prior years, as his 56.1 completion percentage in 2016 is a far cry from the 65.9 percent he averaged from 2008-2014. "I've got to be more accurate, and I will," Rodgers said of Green Bay's 27th-ranked passing offense.

LINE HISTORY: The Green Bay Packers opened the week at -4. The point spread wobbled throughout the week between -4 and -4.5 and sits at the latter heading into Sunday morning. The total opened at 46.5 and has gone up to 47.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games on grass.
* Under is 10-1 in Packers last 11 games following a straight up win.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 44.5)

* Any questions of whether the Atlanta Falcons' fast start was somewhat of a fluke were put to rest last week following a convincing road victory over the reigning Super Bowl champions. Life won't get any easier for the Falcons, who put a four-game winning streak on the line when they head to the Pacific Northwest for a matching against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. Quarterback Matt Ryan leads the league's No. 1-ranked offense into Seattle, topping the NFL in passing yards (1,740) and passer rating (121.6) while ranking second with 12 touchdowns. Stud wide receiver Julio Jones had a quiet week against Denver after hauling in 12 receptions for 300 yards and a touchdown in the drubbing of Carolina.

* Seattle managed only one touchdown in splitting its first two games of the season but rebounded to put up 64 points in back-to-back victories over San Francisco and the New York Jets. Despite playing with a sprained knee against the Jets, Wilson threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns and says he feels great following the additional rest. While Christine Michael continues to carry the running game in place of an injured Thomas Rawls, the biggest surprise has been the return to health by tight end Jimmy Graham, who is coming off consecutive six-catch, 100-yard games. Seattle allows 13.5 points per game and owns the league's top-ranked defense (264 yards per game).

LINE HISTORY: The Seattle Seahawks opened as 6-point home favorites and waivered between -6 and -6.5 all week before taking a jump up to the key number of -7 on Saturday evening. The total opened at 45.5 and dropped a full point to 44.5 on Saturday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
* Seahawks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 6.
* Under is 6-0 in Falcons last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Seahawks last 11 games in Week 6.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-3, 48.5)

* Luck threw a 35-yard touchdown pass with just over 3 1/2 minutes to play in a 29-23 win over Chicago last week to prevent the Colts from dropping to 1-4. "We needed to get that taste out of our mouth. We needed a win," Luck said. Winning cures all in this league." Luck has thrown for 10 touchdowns against only three interceptions while tying for fourth in the league with 1,469 yards passing, but he also has been sacked an NFL-high 20 times behind Indianapolis' shaky offensive line.

* The Houston Texans have been dismal on the road but look to remain perfect at home when they host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night in an early-season showdown for first place in the AFC South. Houston has won all three contests at home to hold a one-game edge atop the division, but it has lost six of the last seven matchups against the Colts. The Texans will attempt to rebound from a 31-13 drubbing at Minnesota in which they were limited to 214 total yards and failed to score a touchdown until the final four minutes. Houston snapped a six-game losing streak in the series with a 16-10 home win on Dec. 20, but that was without quarterback Andrew Luck in Indianapolis' lineup.

LINE HISTORY: The Houston Texans opened as 3.5-point home favorites and that line was immediately reduced to -3 on Monday morning and hasn't moved for the rest of the week. The total hit the betting board at 46 and rose sharply to 48.5 entering Sunday morning. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Texans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC South.
* Over is 7-1 in Colts last 8 games on grass.
* Over is 9-0 in Texans last 9 games in October.
* Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in Houston.

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thursday, October 13 - Monday, October 17)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 6 (Thursday, October 13 - Monday, October 17)

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