Announcement

**Udog** · 10-03-2016, 10:17 PM

NFL opening line report: Brady's return has Patriots pegged as big road faves

“After our line had been open for only 15 minutes, literally every bet we’d written was on the Patriots.”

Week 5 of the NFL season is on deck, and not a minute too soon for the New England Patriots. We talk about the opening lines on a few games this week with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (+7.5)

Tom Brady returns under center for the Patriots, after a four-game suspension for Deflategate, though the Pats went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in his absence. The lone SU loss came Sunday, when New England got shut out at home against Buffalo 16-0 as a 3.5-point favorite.

Cleveland remains winless on the season at 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Browns lost to Washington 31-20 as a 7.5-point road underdog Sunday and haven’t won SU since Week 14 of the 2015 season.

“We thought as low as 7 and as high as 10, and we settled for 7.5,” Simbal said of the opening line at CG’s books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M. Bettors got on that number pretty quickly on Sunday night, moving New England out to -9.

Sportsbook.ag went to double digits right from the get-go.

“We opened the Patriots -10, the highest road favorite this season,” Childs said. “The Pats get Brady back, and he makes his season debut against arguably the worst defense in the NFL. The Browns are 0-4 and off yet another game where they held a second-half lead. The Browns have been competitive, but just can’t close.

“After our line had been open for only 15 minutes, literally every bet we’d written was on the Patriots.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)

Dallas hasn’t had Tony Romo this season, but is hardly worse for the wear at this point. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) topped San Francisco 24-17 Sunday as a 1-point road fave, with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott throwing for 245 yards and two TDs, and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott rushing for 138 yards and a TD.

Cincinnati played the Thursday nighter in Week 4 and got a 22-7 home win over Miami giving 7.5 points.

“I have this power-rated as a pick ’em, but no question, they will bet the Cowboys here at home, so we opened them -1.5 and we’ll see what our bettors do with that number,” Childs said. “So far, the early action is actually on the Bengals, so we’ve already gone to -1 on the Cowboys.

“Both teams are coming off nice wins and covers, and both have plenty of momentum coming into this game. The Bengals have extra rest, having played on Thursday.”

Indeed, with Cincy getting a couple extra days’ rest, CG installed them as a road favorite.

“We ranged anywhere from Bengals -3.5 to Cowboys -1.5, and settled for opening Bengals -1,” Simbal said.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

The Giants make their second straight trip to the upper Midwest, and on a short week no less. New York will wrap up Week 4 when it plays at Minnesota in the Monday nighter, and will be in prime time again Sunday night at Lambeau Field.

Meanwhile, Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) had its bye in Week 4 after a 34-27 home win over Detroit as a 6-point chalk in Week 3.

“The Giants will be coming off a tough road game in Minnesota and a short week heading to Green Bay, so instead of 4.5-5, we went 6.5,” Simbal said.

Sportsbook.ag went a tick higher, opening Green Bay at -7.

“There’s little to no action on the game so far,” Childs said. “Very tough spot for the Giants, playing on the road Monday night and with a short week, having to travel again to Green Bay, which is coming off a bye. It’s a great spot for the Packers, a bad spot for the Giants, and it’s reflected in our opener as we inflated the Packers a bit.”

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-6)

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver continues to roll with new quarterbacks. On Sunday, second-year starter Trevor Siemian hurt his left (non-throwing) shoulder in the second quarter at Tampa Bay, but the Broncos (4-0 SU and ATS) still coasted 29-17 as 3.5-point road favorites.

Atlanta (3-1 SU and ATS) has won and covered three in a row, including a big victory over defending NFC champion Carolina, 48-33 catching 2.5 points at home Sunday.

“It’s a tough number to set with Siemian not finishing the Broncos’ game against the Bucs,” Childs said. “Regardless, the Broncos’ strength is their defense, and we made them a solid 6-point favorite. If Siemian is a go against the Falcons, we’ll get to 6.5 real quick. If he’s out, this line should creep down to 5.5 or 5, but it’s really tough to figure out.

“We’ve got the game circled and are only taking half-limits on this game.”

CG also proceeded with caution, though it opened the game a point higher.

“This was our most debated game,” Simbal said. “We went with Broncos -7.”

That led to some quick action on the Falcons, with the line moving to -5 by late Sunday night.

**Udog** · 10-03-2016, 10:18 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 6

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ARIZONA (1 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 3) - 10/6/2016, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 9

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HOUSTON (3 - 1) at MINNESOTA (3 - 0) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in dome games since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (1 - 3) at MIAMI (1 - 3) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-77 ATS (-33.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 4) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 175-134 ATS (+27.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (1 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no T

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 0) at DETROIT (1 - 3) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (1 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (3 - 1) at DENVER (4 - 0) - 10/9/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (2 - 2) at LA RAMS (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
BUFFALO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-215 ATS (-62.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-215 ATS (-62.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (1 - 3) at OAKLAND (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 91-64 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 35-74 ATS (-46.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 2) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at GREEN BAY (2 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 101-74 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 88-63 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, October 10

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 3) at CAROLINA (1 - 3) - 10/10/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 10-03-2016, 10:18 PM

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 6

8:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona

Sunday, October 9

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DETROIT
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. PITTSBURGH
NY Jets are 8-15 SU in their last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Washington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Washington
Baltimore is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Minnesota6-1-1 SU in its last 8 games
Minnesota10-3-1 SU in its last 14 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 16 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games when playing Tennessee
Miami is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. CLEVELAND
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing New England
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago

4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. DENVER
Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Atlanta

4:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo

4:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing at home against San Diego

4:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Giants are 3-7-1 SU in their last 11 games ,
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants

Monday, October 10

8:30 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina's last 16 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

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**Udog** · 10-03-2016, 10:21 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday's Game
Cardinals (1-3) @ 49ers (1-3)— QB Palmer is in concussion protocol, is doubtful for this game; in 6+ years in NFL, backup QB Stanton is 7-5 as a starter. Redbirds turned ball over 10 times (-8) in last two games with only three TDs; they lost 33-18 (-4) in only road game, at Buffalo. Cards are 8-4 as road favorites under Arians. 49ers allowed 35.7 pts/game in losing last three games, giving up 165.7 yds/game on ground, 443.7 TY/game. Kelly is 1-3 as an NFL home dog. Arizona beat 49ers 47-7/19-13 LY; they’re still just 4-10 in last 14 series games, 1-6 in last seven visits to Bay Area. Arizona is 15-3-1 vs spread under Arians in games with spread of 3 or less points. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in divisional games.

**Udog** · 10-04-2016, 10:30 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Thurs – Oct. 6

Arizona at San Francisco, 8:25 PM ET
Arizona: 45-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
San Francisco: 9-1 UNDER as a home underdog

**Udog** · 10-04-2016, 10:32 PM

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 5 NFL lines are going to move

The defending Super Bowl champs are unbeaten and have already taken control in the AFC West at 4-0.

Spread to bet now

Atlanta at Denver (-6)

Would it surprise you to learn that the Broncos are one of just two 4-0 ATS teams in the NFL (Minnesota is the other one)? The defending Super Bowl champs are unbeaten and have already taken control in the AFC West at 4-0. Plus, Win No. 4 came after new QB Trevor Siemian was sent to the sidelines with a shoulder in the first half of Sunday’s win at Tampa Bay. Replacement Paxton Lynch became the latest unheralded QB to get the job done, finishing up with 170 yards passing and one TD – and, most importantly – zero turnovers. The A+ Broncos' defense did the rest, and Denver now begins a stretch of three games in the next 15 days (Falcons, Thursday game at San Diego, and home vs. Houston). This line has been moving up and down from 4.5 to 6, so if you like Atlanta and the points, best move before books make another adjustment.

Spread to wait on

Arizona at San Francisco (+3)

Can things get any worse for the Cardinals? They’re 1-3 and will be in San Francisco Thursday night on a short week after getting beaten by the Rams this past Sunday. And BTW, QB Carson Palmer is out as the team tries to determine the severity of a head injury suffered in the LA game. Coach Bruce Arians claims the Cards aren’t panicking, but this is as close to a must-win game as they come because Arizona has the likes of Seattle, Carolina, Minnesota and Atlanta on the schedule before the weather gets cool and tolerable in the desert. This line opened at SF +2.5 but moved to 3. It likely will move again, or books might make an adjustment on the vig before kickoff.

Total to watch

New England at Cleveland (46.5)

All eyes will be on Tom Brady as he returns from the four-game Deflategate suspension, and rightfully so. The Patriots will also probably take the choke chain off TE Rob Gronkowski, who has been targeted just three times in the three games he has played. NE will have its full offensive arsenal for the first time after dumbing down the playbook and trying to establish a running game to simplify things for third-string QB Jacoby Brissett. Sophisticated bettors might want to consider hitting the second-half under in this one because the Browns have scored a total of just 17 points combined in the second halves of games this season.

**Udog** · 10-04-2016, 10:34 PM

NFL Week 5 lines that make you go hmmm...

Oakland opened -4 at home to San Diego, but Peter Korner believes this line will close around Raiders -6 come Sunday.

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 40)

A surprising Houston team heads to face a just as surprising Minnesota team, in what looks like one of the better games to watch in Week 5. What caught my eye was the weak opening line (Vikings -5.5) at a few of the sportsbooks taking the lead in this one. I had this nailed at Minnesota -7 after Monday night’s performance and think anyone below the key number is just giving a few plays away from the start.

The combination of a stalled Houston offense and the aggressive defensive output by Minnesota leads me to believe the home favorite can keep a steady distance on the scoreboard to validate the higher number.

Though I’m impressed with Houston’s record, I’m wary of the level of competition it’s faced so far. The Vikings are playing at a higher level against better opponents. The value here is taking the Vikings early in the week before this gets to a touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+2.5, 46)

Philadelphia is at Detroit and you know where that takes me. Detroit has been underachieving since Week 1. A dismal showing at Chicago doesn’t give me any sense that this team has the talent to take on an undefeated Philadelphia squad that comes in rested and with a head of steam.

We’ll have the fortunate advantage of knowing this line won’t be moved too far from the key three so finding that -2.5 early in the week will be to your advantage. I don’t care for the “due factor” so waiting for a Detroit team to suddenly turn it around is not on the agenda.

Betting the good teams against throwing our money at bad teams doesn’t make sense. So you would be wise to ride these two opposite waves and hope the consistent results of these teams continues.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-4, 50.5)

The Chargers been playing the types of games that can break a team’s spirit. After the past week’s collapse against the Saints, San Diego has now lost three games it possibly should have won. Conversely, the Raiders have been winning with solid play, a sense of cool and gaining momentum now that they stand at 3-1 on the season.

The line is surprisingly low at -4 and seems to me the value is with playing early in the week as the money is destined to fall on the winning home favorites. I see this closing at no less than -6 by game time. This looks like a high-scoring game, as the Chargers are equally capable of scoring as they are to give up big points to the Raiders. The higher the scoring is in a game, the less likely a low number will affect the outcome.

This is another contest in which bettors may prefer to ride the coattails of the winning team and not stand around waiting for the lesser one to turn things around. Hop on the Silver and Black early before this becomes a non-play.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 43.5)

Tennessee is at Miami in what looks like the dud game of the week. Nothing like a play on one of these teams to increase interest, with both sitting at 1-3 SU.

Miami’s damage has largely been on the road with its lone win against Cleveland at home. Tennessee beat who it had to (Detroit) but has lost to quality opponents whose combined records stands at 9-2 to date. I see nothing but red flags with Miami and sense the team is dragging after its poor play.

Conversely, Tennessee has nothing to be sorry about and has been quite competitive. The Titans may see this game as a chance to pick up a big win early in the season and bring their record to within string distance of playoff bound teams with plenty of schedule left.

That hook seems surprising to me and a take, if you like a team with the incentive to play this weekend. I had this game closer to -1 and certainly no higher than -2. It’s another game in which the money seems to be destined one way by game time. We don’t see this going up so, if you like Tennessee, grab the hook and enjoy a good chance of the straight up underdog win.

**Udog** · 10-05-2016, 08:12 AM

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Six NFL trends to ponder, with Week 5 coming up……..

— Arizona is 8-4 in last 12 tries as a road favorite.

— Packers covered 9 of last 11 post-bye games.

— San Diego is 12-2-2 as a divisional road underdog.

— Detroit is 1-7-1 in last nine games as a home dog.

— Patriots are 31-11 vs spread coming off a loss, but 4-13 as a road fave.

— Indianapolis is 3-8 in last 11 games as a home favorite.

**Udog** · 10-05-2016, 08:36 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 5

Sun – Oct. 9

Houston at Minnesota, 1:00 PM ET
Houston: 6-16 ATS in dome games
Minnesota: 7-0 ATS off a home win

Tennessee at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 3-11 ATS in games played on a grass field
Miami: 85-59 UNDER as a home favorite

New England at Cleveland, 1:00 PM ET
New England: 41-21 ATS after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game
Cleveland: 24-41 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

NY Jets at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM ET
New York: 9-1 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Pittsburgh: 48-28 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7

Washington at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Washington: 55-78 ATS in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49
Baltimore: 29-15 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Philadelphia at Detroit, 1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia: 21-8 UNDER after a bye week
Detroit: 1-8 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Chicago at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM ET
Chicago: 10-24 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5
Indianapolis: 54-35 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5

Atlanta at Denver, 4:05 PM ET
Atlanta: 14-31 ATS off a home win against a division rival
Denver: 9-1 ATS in the first half of the season

Buffalo at Los Angeles, 4:25 PM ET
Buffalo: 6-0 UNDER off a win against a division rival
Los Angeles: 6-19 ATS in home games after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game

San Diego at Oakland, 4:25 PM ET
San Diego: 6-0 ATS in road games in games played on a grass field
Oakland: 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5

Cincinnati at Dallas, 4:25 PM ET
Cincinnati: 8-1 ATS in road lined games
Dallas: 5-17 ATS after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games

NY Giants at Green Bay, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 29-14 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49
Green Bay: 11-2 ATS off a division game

Mon – Oct. 10

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 8:30 PM ET
Tampa Bay: 1-2 ATS after scoring 9 points or less last game
Carolina: 6-0 ATS off a road loss

**Udog** · 10-05-2016, 10:24 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 5

The Titans have been able to run the ball with ease, which means they should control the clock versus Miami in Week 5.

Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 44.5)

Ravens' stuff-proof O-line vs. Redskins' run-stopping struggles

Winning via the run isn't the sexiest way of doing business. Just ask Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, who says he's disappointed at not having taken more deep shots through the first four weeks of the season. But with victories so important, you have to go with what works. And in the Ravens' case, a steady rush attack should go a long way in helping them conquer the visiting Redskins in a Week 5 showdown at Baltimore.

The Ravens' stout offensive line has given its rushers more push than just about any unit in the league. Baltimore comes into Sunday's game having been "stuffed" - stopped at or before the line of scrimmage - on just four of its 102 rush attempts, leading to a loss of a paltry five yards. The Ravens' 3.9 percent stuff rate is second-best in the NFL. Only the Carolina Panthers (3.6 percent) have seen a lower rate of run attempts stuffed.

Baltimore's success rate should continue with emphasis against a Washington run defense that ranks among the worst in football. The Redskins are surrendering a whopping 4.9 yards per carry and are tied for the league lead with eight rushing scores allowed. Three members of Washington's defensive front four have Pro Football Focus grades below 60. This game should feature plenty of running by Baltimore, and that should work heavily in its favor.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Terrance West

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 43.5)

Titans' time management skills vs. Dolphins' clock struggles

The Titans' passing game is in tatters, and that could become a significant problem moving forward. Marcus Mariota has been absolutely putrid through four games, looking like he has actually taken a step back from his solid rookie campaign. Add in an underwhelming receiving corps, and the concern among Tennessee fans is warranted. But this team can run the ball and that helps to control the clock, an area in which the Titans have an enormous advantage this week.

The Titans come into the week ranked ninth in the NFL in average time of possession, controlling the ball for an average of 30 minutes, 58 seconds per game. They had possession for nearly 32 minutes in their previous game, though it didn't help much as they ultimately dropped a 27-20 decision to Houston. Tennessee is tied for ninth in rush attempts coming into the week, and should move up the rankings as long as the running game is the only functional offensive piece.

The Dolphins, by comparison, have been dreadful at working the clock. Their 24:16 average time of possession is far and away the worst in the league, more than 1:40 less than the 31st-ranked San Francisco 49ers. Not surprisingly, Miami has run the ball just 74 times in four games. Look for Tennessee to control the clock as well as it has all season, limiting the Dolphins' scoring chances as it looks to grind out a road win on the ground.

Daily fantasy watch: RB DeMarco Murray

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (+1, 45)

Bengals' potent pass rush vs. Cowboys' shaky tackle play

Dak Prescott has been a revelation so far this season, having thrown for more than 1,000 yards without a single interception through four games. A run-heavy approach has no doubt been a big help in this regard, but Prescott hasn't made many mistakes over the first quarter of the NFL season. He'll face a stiff test Sunday against a Bengals pass rush that has been as disruptive as any unit in the league so far.

Cincinnati's front four is a who's-who of pass harassment: LT Carlos Dunlap (87.2) and LE Geno Atkins (85.5) are both graded second at their positions, and have combined for 15 quarterback hurries to date. Defensive end Michael Johnson (45.9) has struggled according to PFF's metrics, but still sits tied for second league-wide with nine hurries. The Bengals are the only team in football with three players ranked in the Top 15 in hurries through four games.

The Cowboys' interior offensive line is formidable, with three players graded 78.2 or better, but they've had all sorts of trouble on the ends, where RT Doug Free (51.4) and LT Chaz Green (43.0) have been well below average. Johnson and Dunlap should be able to generate all sorts of pressure on the periphery, forcing Prescott into mad scrambles or bad passing decisions. If the Bengals continue their solid defensive play, Prescott's first interception of the season is coming soon.

Daily fantasy watch: Bengals D/ST

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-5.5, 47)

Broncos' penalty gains vs. Falcons' PI problems

Much of the focus in this game will be on the Falcons' high-powered offense - led by quarterback Matt Ryan and wide receiver Julio Jones - facing the league's most relentless defense. Home-field advantage will be a big factor, as the Broncos have limited opponents to 20 or fewer in six straight games at Sports Authority Field (playoffs included). But it's a major mismatch on the other side of the ball that could help you decide how to play this one.

Armed with a 1-2 receiving punch in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, the Broncos have been the beneficiary of 12 passing penalties - the most in the NFL. That tally includes a league-high seven defensive pass interference calls, along with four defensive holding penalties and an illegal contact infraction. The Broncos have turned those calls into 117 penalty yards, behind only Green Bay (187), Washington (169) and the New York Jets (121)

The Falcons' pass defense is shaky to begin with, but it has also had discipline problems. Only four teams have been flagged for defensive pass interference more than Atlanta (four) and their five total passing-play infractions have resulted in 102 free yards for opposing teams. Atlanta's secondary is ill-equipped to deal with Thomas and Sanders and if it can't stay disciplined, it could wind up giving Denver great field position all game long.

Daily fantasy watch: WRs Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders

**Udog** · 10-06-2016, 08:10 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Six more NFL trends to ponder, with Week 5 coming up……..

— Baltimore is 2-12-2 in last 16 games as a favorite.

— Bengals are 30-18-5 in last 43 games against NFC teams.

— Dolphins are 2-9 vs spread in their last 11 games.

— Carolina is 11-3 in last 14 games as a divisional home favorite.

— Steelers covered seven of their last nine games.

— Falcons covered eight of last nine as an underdog.

**Udog** · 10-06-2016, 08:32 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night NFL Betting Preview: Cardinals at 49ers
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Larry Fitzgerald will have to step up big time, if the Cardinals want to avoid a 1-4 start.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5, 42)

The Arizona Cardinals have been plagued by turnovers of late and the trendy preseason Super Bowl pick temporarily are faced with turning over the keys to backup quarterback Drew Stanton on Thursday when they visit the San Francisco 49ers. Veteran Carson Palmer did not travel with the team to California due to a concussion, leaving Stanton to be left looking to conjure the magic that saw him pull a 5-3 mark out of his hat during a stint in 2014.

Stanton struggled mightily in taking over for the concussed Palmer on Sunday, completing just 4-of-11 passes in a 17-13 setback to Los Angeles and his two interceptions upped Arizona's turnover total to nine during its two-game skid. "I'll say this, I never envisioned this type of start," Cardinals general manager Steve Keim told Arizona Sports 98.7 FM. "I don't know that anybody -- fans or anybody in the organization -- would have envisioned this." The 49ers had no such issue with the Rams with a 28-0 season-opening shellacking, but the defense of Chip Kelly's club summarily has been shredded to the tune of 458.3 yards and 35.7 points per contest during its three-game losing streak. To add injury to insult, four-time NFL All-Pro linebacker NaVorro Bowman sustained a torn left Achilles in Sunday's 24-17 setback to Dallas and will miss the rest of the season.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this game as 2.5-point road faves and were bet as high as -4, but then the news came out Palmer would miss the game, the line dropped back to Cardinals -3.5. The total has also dropped with Stanton taking the snaps for Palmer, going from 43.5 to 43, to the current number of 42. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Cardinals (-1) - 49ers (+6) + home field (-3) = 49ers +4

INJURY REPORT:

Cardinals - QB C. Palmer (Out Thursday, concussion), T D. Humphries (probable Thursday, ankle), TE D. Fells (questionable Thursday, shoulder), DT E. Stinson (questionable Thursday, toe), CB J. Bethel (questionable Thursday, foot), DT J. Mauro (questionable, chest), DT F. Rucker (questionable Thursday, knee), DT R. Nkemdiche (questionable Thursday, ankle).

49ers - TE V. McDonald (probable Thursday, hip), DL A. Armstead (probable Thursday, shoulder), CB M. Cromartie (probable Thursday, ankle), G Z. Beadles (questionable Thursday, ankle), CB C. Davis (questionable Thursday, quadricep), WR J. Kerley (questionable Thursday, ankle), DL G. dorsey (questionable Thursday, knee), DB J. Ward (questionable Thursday, quadricep), Dl D. Buckner (doubtful Thursday, foot). LB N. Bowman (out for season, Achilles).

WEATHER REPORT: It is shaping up to be a beautiful night for football in Santa Clara. The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the high 60's for the game. There is also going to be a six to 11 mile per hour wind gusting towards the southern endzone.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians has dropped back-to-back games on only two occasions in his NFL career with Arizona and as a result finds his team languishing in a tie for last place in he NFC West division along with the 49ers. The key to this contest is the concussion protocol in which QB Carson Palmer is under. With him they don’t figure to drop three straight games. Without him they’ve got a headache - pun intended. The dataabse tells us Frisco is 1-5 ATS on Thursdays, but 'Zona is 0-8 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back division games."

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Initial money came in on Arizona, driving the spread up to -4.5, but that's starting to look more and more like a ploy play. We're back down to -3, and my guess is that this could end up closing lower than that. Currently, the money favors Arizona 60-40 while the bets are 75-25 on the road squad."

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U): David Johnson (64 carries, 300 yards, three TDs) leads the NFL with 510 yards from scrimmage and has recorded 100 or more total yards in all four contests this season and eight of his last nine games. Johnson amassed 124 from scrimmage (83 rushing, 41 receiving) versus the Rams, but the workload was decidedly different in last year's season series with San Francisco (15 carries, 46 yards). The 24-year-old will be spelled by Andre Ellington, as veteran Chris Johnson (groin) was placed on injured reserve Tuesday. Tyvon Branch was also shuffled to IR, with fellow safety Tyrann Mathieu temporarily being moved into the slot while D.J. Swearinger plays in nickel packages.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (1-3, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): San Francisco collected eight takeaways in its first three games to provide a helping hand for the NFL's 28th-ranked offense, which scored a league-best 45 points off the turnovers after mustering an NFL-worst 25 for the entire 2015 season. The 49ers failed to force a turnover versus the Cowboys on Sunday and Blaine Gabbert's fourth interception of the season ended his team's bid for an upset. Carlos Hyde (73 carries, 299 yards, NFC-best five TDs) is averaging 4.9 yards per rush over his last two games, but was limited to just 51 yards in a 47-7 loss at Arizona on Sept. 27.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* 49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last four versus NFC West opponents.
* Under is 8-1 in 49ers last nine Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: So far the public is still backing the Cardinals, even without Carson Palmer, with 62 percent of wagers laying the points with the road faves. Meanwhile the total is seeing a much more even split, with 52 percent of wagers on the Over.

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**Udog** · 10-06-2016, 10:11 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Thursday, October 6

Arizona @ San Francisco

Game 303-304
October 6, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
136.060
San Francisco
128.979
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3
42
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-3); Over

Sunday, October 9

NY Giants @ Green Bay

Game 473-474
October 9, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
128.868
Green Bay
138.668
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 10
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7
48
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-7); Under

Cincinnati @ Dallas

Game 471-472
October 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
135.147
Dallas
131.633
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 3 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
Pick
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
Under

San Diego @ Oakland

Game 469-470
October 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
131.621
Oakland
129.105
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 2 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 4
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+4); Over

Buffalo @ Los Angeles

Game 467-468
October 9, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
140.568
Los Angeles
135.974
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Los Angeles
by 2 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+2 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Denver

Game 465-466
October 9, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
136.529
Denver
143.971
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-5 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Indianapolis

Game 463-464
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.970
Indianapolis
128.847
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 5
48
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+5); Under

Philadelphia @ Detroit

Game 461-462
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
137.570
Detroit
129.317
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3); Under

Washington @ Baltimore

Game 459-460
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
129.909
Baltimore
130.975
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+4); Under

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh

Game 457-458
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
129.231
Pittsburgh
143.074
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 14
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-7); Under

New England @ Cleveland

Game 455-456
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
134.171
Cleveland
125.584
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 11 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+11 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Miami

Game 453-454
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
124.512
Miami
130.348
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 6
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
34 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-3 1/2); Over

Houston @ Minnesota

Game 451-452
October 9, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
130.689
Minnesota
143.085
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 12
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6
40
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-6); Under

Monday, October 10

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Game 475-476
October 10, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
128.408
Carolina
130.819
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 2 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 6
42
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+6); Over

**Udog** · 10-06-2016, 10:13 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Sunday's games
Titans (1-3) @ Dolphins (1-3)— Tennessee fired its special teams coach Monday after LW’s debacle in Houston. Titans are 10-18 as road underdogs last 4+ years, 1-1 this year- they have not allowed an offensive TD in second half of last three games, outscoring foes 23-10- they lost 38-10 at home to Miami LY, are 2-4 in last six series games, 1-3 here, with last visit in 2012. Over last decade, Dolphins are dismal 11-27 as home favorite, 0-1 this year- this is first of four strait home games for Fish (next road game, Nov 13). Miami is -7 in turnovers in its last three games. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 0-1 as a favorite. AFC South teams are 5-7, 2-4 as underdogs.

Patriots (3-1) @ Browns (0-4)— Brady is back at QB here after his suspension; Patriots are 6-2 vs team Belichick used to coach (36-44 in five years, 1991-95), 2-2 here, with last visit in ’10. New England is 4-12 as road favorites last 3+ years; they nipped Arizona 23-21 (+6) in only road game so far this year, with Garoppolo at QB. Browns are 0-4 this year, starting three QBs; they’re 2-2 vs spread, with last three games going over total. Cleveland lost 25-20 (+6.5, led 20-0) in only home game so far, vs Ravens- they trailed only one of four games at halftime, but have been outscored 73-17 in second half of games. Patriots are 1-1 as a favorite this year. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread, 1-2 as underdogs.

Jets (1-3) @ Steelers (3-1)— New York turned ball over 11 times (-9) in last two games; they’ve been outscored 51-30 in second half of games, with one TD on 21 drives since 37-31 win at Buffalo. Jets are 15-19-3 in last 37 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year. Steelers won 24-16/43-14 in home games this year; they’re 14-6 vs spread in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year. Pitt hasn’t played game this year decided by less than 8 points; they’re 19-5 in last 24 games vs Jets; nine of last 11 series totals were 37 or less. Jets lost last nine visits to Steel City, losing last one 27-10 in ’12. AFC East teams are 5-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-5 as an underdog.

Texans (3-1) @ Vikings (4-0)— Minnesota is on 17-2 spread run, 4-0 this year, after Monday’s win over Giants; Vikings won 17-14/24-10 in two home games this year- they’re 10-2 as a home favorite under Zimmer, 7-0 in last seven tries. Texans’ offense was rolling early LW, with O’Brien calling plays, until TE Fiedorowicz (knee) was injured. Houston lost 27-0 in Foxboro in its only road game; they’re 5-6-1 as road dogs under O’Brien. Minnesota won all three series games, by 6-7-17 points, in three series games; Texans lost 28-21 in their only visit here, 8 years ago. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread outside its division, 2-4 as underdogs, 1-3 on road. NFC North teams are 5-5 its spread n non-divisional games, 1-2 as home favorites.

Redskins (2-2) @ Ravens (3-1)— Short road trip for Washington squad that scored 60 points in winning last two games after 0-2 start; they’ve got six takeaways (+4) in last two games, winning despite being outgunned by 54-79 yards. Redskins are 3-2 vs Ravens, winning last meeting 31-28 in OT four years ago; Skins lost 24-10 in last visit here, in ’08. Washington won only road game 29-27 (+4.5) at Giants two weeks ago. Four Raven games this year were decided by total of 14 points; last two were decided by total of 3 points. Baltimore NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-division games, 2-2 as underdogs, 2-1 on road. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as home favorites.

Eagles (3-0) @ Lions (1-3)— Philly sprinted out to 3-0 start behind rookie QB Wentz, but then had bye; will it kill their momentum? Eagles have yet to turn ball over (+6), winning 29-14 in only road game, at Chicago. Philly is 15-2 in last 17 post-bye games (2-2 in last four); going back to 1990, they’re 13-3 vs spread as favorite in post-bye games (most of that was under Reid). Eagles are 7-2 in last nine games vs Detroit, but lost 45-14 to Lions LY (TY was 430-227, Lions). Iggles are 2-1-1 in last four visits here. Detroit lost its last three games, by 1-7-3 points; underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in their games this year- they lost 16-15 to Titans in only home game. Since 2011, Lions are 1-7-1 vs spread as a home underdog.

Bears (1-3) @ Colts (1-3)— Both teams are struggling badly; Indy is first team not to have bye after London game- they requested it that way. Colts have 12 TDs on 41 drives, but needed 63-yards in last 1:20 to nip San Diego for its only win- three of their four games went over. Indy had three takeaways in their win, a total of one in their three losses- they’re 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites. Bears got first win LW, at home over Lions, holding Detroit without offensive TD. Chicago won six of last eight series games, winning last three visits here, by 4-14-16 points; Bears lost 23-14/31-17 on road this year; they’re 6-4-1 in last 11 games as a road dog. NFC North teams are 5-5 vs spread outside its division, 3-2 as road dogs. AFC South teams are 5-7 vs spread, 3-2 as home favorites.

Falcons (3-1) @ Broncos (4-0)— Atlanta has NFL’s top offense, gaining over 7 yards/play, scoring 38 pts/game- they scored 93 points in last two games, but also allow 31 pts/game. Falcons are 6-1 in last seven games as a road underdog. Broncos won/covered all four games, winning last three by 12+ points; they’re 2-4-1 as home favorites under Kubiak, 1-0 this year. Bengals are only one of four Denver foes to average 5+ yards/pass vs Denver- they threw for 5.4 yds/pass. Atlanta has thrown for 7+ yards/pass in every game. Denver won seven of last nine series games, winning three of last four here; Falcons’ last visit here was in 2004. AFC West teams are 9-5 vs spread outside the division, 3-2 as home favorites. NFC South teams are 4-6, but 3-1 as road underdogs. Over is 4-0 in Atlanta games, 3-1 in Denver games this season.

Bills (2-2) @ Rams (3-1)— Buffalo won its last two games; they’ve turned ball over only twice this year (+6), but scored only two offensive TDs on 18 drives in splitting two road games. Bills are 8-5-1 in last 14 games as a road dog- they caught break LW, playing Patriots when NE’s only QB was playing with injured thumb. Rams won last three games (two on road) with +6 turnover ratio; they’ve only led one game at half this year and that was 6-3 over Seattle. Underdogs covered all four LA games this season. Bills won five of last seven series games; they were 2-0 in St Louis, lost last two games here vs Rams. NFC West teams are 3-5 vs spread outside the division, 1-2 as home favorites. AFC East teams are 5-5, 2-3 as road underdogs.

Chargers (1-3) @ Raiders (3-1)— San Diego led all four of its games in 4th quarter, led all four games by double digits, but lost three of the four. Chargers allowed 14 TDs on 45 drives, are allowing 19.5 second half points/game. Average total in San Diego games this year: 57.3. Underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in Raider games this year; all four Oakland games were decided by 7 or less points- they lost 35-28 at Atlanta in only home game. Oakland swept Chargers 37-29/23-20 LY, after losing five of previous six series games; San Diego is 3-2 in its last five visits here. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-9 vs spread this year in divisional games. Over is 3-1 in both teams’ games this year. San Diego 19-9-1 in last 30 games as a road dog (1-1 this year). Since 2008, Oakland is 6-14 as a home favorite.

Bengals (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1)— Dallas won/covered its last three games; they’ve only turned ball over twice in four games (+3) despite having a rookie QB. Cowboys ran ball for 393 yards in last two games- since 2010, they’re 9-28 as a home favorite. Bengals had three extra days to prep after beating Miami LW; they’ve run for less than 80 yards in three of four games this year. Dallas is 7-4 in series, winning 31-22/20-19 in last two meetings; Bengals are 1-5 in Dallas, with only win in ’88, last visit in ’08. AFC North teams are 6-6 vs spread in non-division games, 1-2 as road underdogs. NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread, 3-1 as home favorites outside their division. Have to wonder if Bengals losing coordinators Gruden-Jackson-Zimmer over last few years has drained brain power in their coaching staff?

Giants (2-2) @ Packers (3-1)— Last 7+ years, Green Bay is 31-20-1 as a home favorite, 0-1 this year; Packers are 9-1 vs spread in last ten post-bye games, 7-2 in last nine when favored. Pack was held to 4.4 yards/pass in only loss, at Minnesota. Giants are on short week after loss in Minnesota Monday; NY has only one takeaway, is -8 in turnovers and was just 2-12 on third down vs Vikings. Giants are 5-7-1 in last 13 games as a road underdog. Big Blue smarting after consecutive losses; they’ve won last three games with Packers- they’re 3-1 in last four visits here, with last one 2011 playoff game. NFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread outside the division, 1-1 as road dogs. NFC North teams are 5-5 vs spread, 1-2 as home favorites. Last two weeks, Giants allowed 8.2/7.3 yards/pass attempt; they’ll need to do better than that here.

Monday's game
Buccaneers (1-3) @ Panthers (1-3)— Unclear yet if Newton will start here; if not, backup QB Anderson is 20-25 as an NFL starter, just 2-0 since 2010. Carolina turned ball over nine times (-5) in last three games; they’ve led three of four games at the half, but are 1-3. Tampa Bay allowed 34.7 pts/game in losing last three games; they’re -9 in turnovers, were outscored 46-19 in second half last three weeks. Carolina is 13-5-2 in last 20 games as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is 10-8 in last 18 games as road dog. Carolina won last six series games, four by 14+ points; Panthers swept Bucs 37-23/38-10 LY, with 8 takeaways (+5) in two games and two defensive TDs, with five scoring drives less than 50 yards. Bucs lost last three visits here by 21-2-28 points. Tampa Bay has lost field position in all four games, three by 7+ points; their special teams need improvement and they need to protect the ball better.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 6 - Monday, October 10)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 6 - Monday, October 10)

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