NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 6 - Monday, October 10)

[Udog]

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks this week in Westgate Super Contest:

1) Cincinnati Bengals -1 (841)

2) Philadelphia Eagles -3 (568)

3) Minnesota Vikings -6.5 (508)

4) Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (494)

5) New Jersey Giants +7.5 (476)

6) Detroit Lions +3 (443)

Season record for top 6 picks: 6-18 vs spread

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up a sports Sunday

Vikings 31, Texans 13— Minnesota is on an improbable 18-2 spread run, 5-0 this year; they’ve scored four TDs on special teams/defense, are 15-30 on 3rd down last two weeks. Only one of their five wins is by less than nine points. Houston was 1-13 on 3rd down in this game, averaged 3.4 yards/pass attempt- home team won/covered all five of their games this year.

Tennessee 30, Miami 17— Dolphins are now a horrendous 13-34 vs spread in their last 47 games as a home favorite- that goes back 10.5 years. How many coaches have to get fired before Miami realizes Ryan Tannehill isn’t good? Titans gave up a punt return TD for second week in a row, but had a 14-yard edge in field position, were +2 in turnovers.

Stat of Day: Over last four weeks, from Weeks 2-5, NFL teams that were +2 or better in turnovers are 27-1 SU- they’re 28-4 for the season.

Patriots 33, Browns 13— Brady threw for 406 yards, three TDs in his return from suspension. Cleveland got two more QB’s KO’d, wound up using Terrelle Pryor at QB, meaning that thru five games this year (0-5), they’ve already used five QB’s and probably have to sign (at least) one more for next week. If they use Pryor at QB, then they lose their best WR.

Steelers 31, Jets 13— Pittsburgh had 30 first downs; on three drives, they had 6+ first downs- Steelers averaged 7.8 yards/pass attempt, were 5-10 on 3rd down. Jets lost field position by 11 yards, after losing it by 13 yards last week. Over last three games, Jets have been outscored 37-7 in second half. Cleveland is desperate for a QB; Jets have four on their roster- shouldn’t these teams make a trade?

Redskins 16, Ravens 10— Baltimore drove 75 yards on nine plays for a TD on their first drive; rest of the game? 60 plays for 231 yards, with one FG on 11 drives. Redskins were one of four teams this week to score a TD on defense/special teams- those teams went 3-1 in their game, are 12-7 for the season, with two other games where both teams had one. All five Baltimore games have been decided by 6 or less points.

Lions 24, Eagles 23— Philly had 14 penalties for 111 yards, Detroit two for 18. Wentz rallied team back from 21-10 deficit, but Lions kicked winning FG with 1:28 left. There were 113 plays from scrimmage in this game, 111 in the Miami game; the Texas-Oklahoma game had 168 plays, the Colorado-USC game 153. You get more bang for your entertainment buck watching college games.

Colts 29, Bears 23— Chicago led 23-19 with 4:00 left, but Indy scored 10 points in last 3:49 for their second win. Surprised that Buck/Aikman had this game- weak card of games on FOX this week. Bears had six plays of 20+ yards, as Hoyer threw for 397 yards; only one of Indy’s eight plays of 20+ yards came on first down. High scoring games, but teams combined to go just 5-21 on third down. Hoyer had big game, but missed Jeffrey in end zone on Chicago’s last drive to try and win the game.

Falcons 23, Broncos 16— Atlanta gave up 31 pts/game in their 3-1 start; they held Denver to 267 TY, 4.5 yards/pass attempt in leading this game wire/wire. Falcons started LY 5-0, wound up 8-8; you get the idea this 4-1 start is based on more solid footing. Rookie QB Lynch was 23-35/223 yards in his first NFL start, was sacked six times. NFC teams are 14-8 vs AFC clubs this season- they were 4-2 this week.

After the game, Denver coach Kubiak was taken to the hospital with “flu-like symptoms”. When he was coach in Houston, Kubiak had a mini-strike at halftime of a game. We hope he is healthy. Denver plays on Thursday night this week, by the way.

Bills 30, Rams 19— Buffalo punter Schmidt was star of game, with four of his six punts pinning LA inside its own 20-yard line. Rams drove 86 yards on one drive but had to kick a FG. Buffalo was +3 in turnovers and in essence got a 4th turnover on a roughing/punter penalty. Taylor is a lot like Doug Flutie was; mobile but not a big runner, little scatter-armed, a good leader. Bills have won three games in row after an 0-2 start.

Raiders 34, Chargers 31— 4-1 start for Oakland, with three wins by 3 or less points. You have to feel for San Diego; another brutal loss, with their punter muffing the hold on chip-shot game-tying FG just before 2:00 warning. Chargers turned ball over four times (-3)30.4 pts/game and are 1-4- they had 150 rushing yards in Week 2, have combined for 149 rushing yards in three games since.

Cowboys 28, Bengals 14— To me the most surprising score of week; this game wasn’t close to being this close- it was 28-0 in 4th quarter. Dallas ran ball for 180 yards; only eight of 54 plays they ran came on third down. You have to wonder about NFL scouting when Prescott plays so well as a rookie QB but wasn’t that highly touted- I don’t think the DUI he supposedly got in March hurt his draft position. No one was taking him higher than Dallas did, no matter what.

Baseball update:
Washington 5, Dodgers 2— Unlikely hero? Backup catcher Jose Lobaton, playing only because Wilson Ramos hurt his knee at the end of the regular season. Lobaton hit a 3-run homer in the bottom of the 4th when LA led 2-0. Nationals’ bullpen got the last 14 outs without allowing a run, so series heads to Tinseltown tied 1-1. TV executives breathe a sigh of relief, with first series guaranteed to have a Game 4.

Blue Jays 7, Rangers 6— Josh Donaldson scored from second on a force play to end the game as Toronto sweeps the Rangers and moves on to the ALCS. I’m an A’s fan; Donaldson is awesome and Oakland didn’t get nearly enough for him when the was traded (for financial reasons). But hey, those guys advising Billy Beane went to college in the Ivy League, so they must be smart, right?

Packers 23, Giants 16– Not a great night for either QB, but for third time in last four games, Giants scored zero or one offensive TD. For the week, favorites are 5-7-1, home teams 5-7-1, over 7-6.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 10

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Buccaneers at Panthers
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Jameis Winston has thrown as many interceptions (eight) as touchdown passes - seven coming in the past three weeks - and has absorbed a league-high 39 hits.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-5.5, 45.5)

Quarterback Cam Newton will miss what is shaping up as an early-season elimination game between the Carolina Panthers and the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night. Newton, who guided Carolina to the Super Bowl last season, didn't practice all week and was confirmed as OUT on Saturday afternoon.

Panthers coach Ron Rivera confirmed the decision on Newton, the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player, was out of his hands. "We follow the (NFL concussion) protocol," Rivera said. "We're not forcing players to get onto the football field. We'll do exactly as the protocol tells us, and the doctors and the experts tell us." Derek Anderson will get the nod against Tampa Bay, which has dropped three in a row since a season-opening victory over the Falcons. The Buccaneers have been torched for 104 points during their three-game skid and have lost six straight matchups to Carolina, including both last season by a combined 42 points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The defending NFC Champions opened the betting week as 4.5-point favorites. That spread dropped down to -4 when Cam Newton was announced as OUT but there has been significant Panthers' money on Sunday which has spiked the line up to -5.5. The total opened at 45.5 but was immediately dropped down to 44 early in the week. Leading up to Sunday's kickoffs there was significant action on the Over which forced the books to bump the total up to 45.5. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Buccaneers (+2.5) - Panthers (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Panthers -7

INJURY REPORT:

Buccaneers - DT C. McDonald (Ques Mon, hamstring), CB B. Grimes (Ques Mon, hamstring), DE R. Ayers (Ques Mon, ankle), TE L. Stocker (Ques Mon, ankle), WR C. Shorts (Ques Mon, hamstring), TE B. Myers (Ques Mon, shoulder), LB L. David (Ques Mon, undisclosed), RB C. Sims (Doub Mon, knee), DT G. McCoy (Doub Mon, calf), DE N. Spence (Out Indefinitely, shoulder), RB D. Martin (Mid Oct, hamstring), LB D. Bond (I-R, hamstring), DE J. Smith (I-R, knee), WR L. Murphy (Elig Week 8, knee), G J. Sweezy (Elig Week 8, back), DE G. Johnson (I-R, hip).

Panthers - WR D. Funchess (Prob Mon, toe), LB T. Davis (Prob Mon, hamstring), DE C. Johnson (Ques Mon, quadricep), FB M. Tolbert (Ques Mon, hamstring), WR T. Ginn, Jr. (Ques Mon, foot), LB J. Cash (Ques Mon, hamstring), QB C. Newton (Out Mon, concussion), T M. Oher (Out Mon, concussion), CB J. Bradberry (Out Mon, toe), RB J. Stewart (Mid Oct, hamstring), DT V. Butler (Mid Oct, ankle), DE R. Delaire (I-R, knee), S D. Marlowe (I-R, hamstring), WR L. Byrd (I-R, concussion), T J. Rigsbee (I-R, knee), CB L. Johnson (Elig Week 8, achilles), FB D. Johnson (I-R, back).

WEATHER REPORT: Game-time conditions in Charlotte are going to be clear with temperatures in the low-60's on Monday evening. Winds will be light and humidity levels will be at around 60 percent.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Both teams enter with 1-3 SU/ATS records and have struggled this season. Quarterback Cam Newton is out with a concussion and veteran backup Derek Anderson will start for Carolina. He has played in 70 games during his 11-year NFL career, completing just 54% of his passes for only 6.5 yards per pass with a mediocre 60/57 touchdown/interception ratio and 71.6 QB rating. The biggest difference for the Panthers will be the lack of a running game as Anderson has averaged just 3.2 rushing yards per game during his NFL career and just 2.3 yards per carry. Cam Newton has averaged 40.9 rushing yards per game during his NFL career and 5.3 yards per carry."

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U): Tampa Bay was held to seven points for the second time in three games in last week's 27-7 home loss to Denver as quarterback Jameis Winston continues to struggle in his second season. Winston has thrown as many interceptions (eight) as touchdown passes -- seven coming in the past three weeks -- and has absorbed a league-high 39 hits, although coach Dirk Koetter said playing from behind has left his quarterback more vulnerable. Wideout Mike Evans has 26 receptions and three touchdowns in three games, but running backs Doug Martin (hamstring) and Charles Sims (knee) could both miss Monday's game with injuries. Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is also a question mark due to a calf injury.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Carolina has issues on both sides of the ball, scoring only 10 points in a Week 3 home loss to Minnesota before its defense was shredded for 48 points in last week's drubbing at Atlanta. Anderson was 17 of 23 for 172 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, including a game-clinching pick-six, in relief of Newton last week. “Guys have a lot of respect for him," said Panthers tight end Greg Olsen, who has 24 receptions and a pair of touchdowns. "He’s been in the fire as the starter, as a backup in places he’s been. Every time he’s coming in he’s delivered." Carolina had one of the league's stingiest defenses in 2015, but it was carved up for 503 passing yards by the Falcons.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 11-2 in Buccaneers last 13 games in October.
* Over is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
* Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is backing the Panthers with 56 percent of the picks on the home favorites. Over is dominating totals wagers with 62 percent of the selections.


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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: The Falcons face another very tough test in Week 6

In back-to-back weeks, Atlanta has beaten both participants in last year’s Super Bowl. Coming off their win over Carolina, the Falcons were in control throughout at Denver, winning 23-16.

Week 6 of the NFL season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champions looking to rebound from their first loss since last December. We talk about the opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3)

Denver had to start rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch on Sunday against Atlanta, and it was rough sledding. Lynch was sacked six times and threw an interception, and the Broncos (4-1 SU and ATS) lost 23-16 as 3.5-point home favorites.

San Diego (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) had its chances to beat Oakland or at least force overtime, but had a late field goal blocked in a 34-31 road loss as a 3.5-point underdog.

“We had a tough time with this number,” Childs said. “The Chargers are just beat up and arguably the most injured of any team in the NFL. They looked flat-out gassed in the second half against Oakland and now have to play on a short week.”

Childs said the opening number for this Thursday night game comes with an asterisk, not knowing whether Lynch is starting or Trevor Siemian can return from a shoulder injury.

“The Broncos have serious questions at quarterback, and without definitive word as to who will start, Lynch or Siemian, we have placed half-limits on this prime-time matchup until we get word,” Childs said. “Before Sunday’s game, Lynch wasn’t much of a downgrade from Siemian. After what we saw against the Falcons, we were absolutely wrong. He’s a big-time downgrade, in my opinion.

“If it’s Siemian who starts, we’ll go to Broncos -4. If it’s Lynch, then the Broncos go down to 2.5-point road favorite.”

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-9)

Tom Brady returned in Week 5, and it was like he never left. Brady threw for 406 yards and three touchdowns in a 33-13 rout of Cleveland as New England (4-1 SU and ATS) covered the 10-point spread. Cincinnati went off as a 2.5-point chalk at Dallas, but lost 28-14 to fall to 2-3 SU and ATS.

“I’m not sure we can open this line high enough,” Childs said. “The Patriots looked like world beaters with Brady back in charge, and the Bengals looked pathetic against the Cowboys. But as good as the Pats looked, it was against arguably the worst team in the NFL and one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

“The Bengals are in a must-win. They simply can’t afford another loss, and you have to think they bring a desperate effort. We know the public is going to bet the Patriots, so as much as we believe the number should be around 7 or 7.5, we hung 9 and will charge a bit of a tax for Pats backers.”

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (OFF)

Dallas continued rolling behind its rookies, quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott. Prescott threw for 227 yards and a TD, and Elliott racked up 134 yards and two TDs on just 15 carries – including a 60-yard score – as the Cowboys beat Cincinnati 28-14 catching 2.5 points at home.

Green Bay (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) topped the New York Giants 23-16, pushing as a 7-point home fave. But because that was the Sunday night game, Childs said Sportsbook.ag was holding off on posting the line for Cowboys-Packers.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-7)

In back-to-back weeks, Atlanta has beaten both participants in last year’s Super Bowl. Coming off their big home win over Carolina, the Falcons (4-1 SU and ATS) were in control throughout at Denver on Sunday, winning 23-16 as a 3.5-point ‘dog.

However, Seattle will have an extra week of preparation for this contest, since it had a bye in Week 5. The Seahawks (3-1 SU and ATS) topped the New York Jets 27-17 laying 1 point on the road in Week 4.

“This is a very difficult spot for the Falcons, off their win against the Broncos,” Childs said. “Atlanta has to travel on back-to-back weeks and play a rested Seahawks team. While the Falcons looked impressive on the road, it was against a rookie quarterback who looked overwhelmed in his debut as a starter.

“We opened the Seahawks a solid 7-point favorite and immediately took sharp money on the Falcons. We got off 7 and went down to Seattle -6.5, which is our current number. We’ve had good two-way action at 6.5, and I believe we’ll be at this number for a while.”

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 10


Big change in Baltimore: Marc Trestman is OUT as Ravens OC. Ravens went 7-12-2 ATS 9-12 O/U with Trestman calling plays.


With the Vikings latest win they've covered 10 in a row and are an incredible 19-2 ATS in their last 21. They're on a Bye in Week 6.