The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at GB 01:00 PM

GB -7.0 ***** ( FAVORITE OF THE DAY )

O 43.5

ATL at CAR 01:00 PM

CAR +3.0

U 51.0

SD at CLE 01:00 PM

CLE +4.0

O 43.5 *****

TEN at JAC 01:00 PM

TEN -5.0 *****

O 43.5 *****

NYJ at NE 01:00 PM

NE -17.0

U 44.0 ***** ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )

MIA at BUF 01:00 PM

MIA +4.5

U 42.0

WAS at CHI 01:00 PM

CHI +3.0 *****

O 47.5

IND at OAK 04:05 PM

IND +3.5 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY )

O 54.0 *****

ARI at SEA 04:25 PM

SEA -9.0

U 43.0

TB at NO 04:25 PM

NO -3.5

O 52.0 *****

SF at LA 04:25 PM

SF +5.0 ***** (DOG OF THE DAY # 2 )

U 39.5

CIN at HOU 08:25 PM

CIN +1.0 *****

O 41.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Capsules
December 24, 2016

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) As Derek Carr fell to the turf with a broken leg, a celebratory day in Oakland immediately turned somber. The Raiders had suffered their most significant loss of the season.

Carr broke a bone in his right leg in the fourth quarter of the Raiders' 33-25 victory over the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday, immediately throwing a dark cloud over a resurgent season in Oakland.

Carr got hurt with Oakland leading 33-14 early in the fourth quarter when he was sacked by Trent Cole. Carr stayed on the ground for several minutes in pain as trainers came out to treat him. With the crowd chanting ''M-V-P! M-V-P!'' Carr limped off the field without putting any pressure on his right leg. He will have surgery on Sunday.

Carr has led a revival in Oakland since arriving as a second-round pick in 2014. After losing his first 10 games as a rookie, Carr has been a big part of the turnaround that has the Raiders in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. He threw three TD passes Sunday to give him 28 on the season and his seven fourth-quarter comebacks are the biggest reason behind Oakland's success.

Now the team must prepare for a playoff run with Matt McGloin at quarterback. McGloin has not started a game since the end of the 2013 season with Carr starting all 47 games since he arrived.

Andrew Luck rallied the Colts (7-8) from 26 points down to just eight with 2:33 left.

JAGUARS 38, TITANS 17

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Blake Bortles' best game of the season helped the Jaguars end a nine-game losing streak, and Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota broke his right leg in the third quarter.

Bortles threw for 325 yards and a touchdown, and was on the receiving end of a 20-yard trick play that sealed the win with 5:25 remaining. Rookie Jalen Ramsey returned an interception 30 yards on the ensuing play to set off a raucous - and long-awaited - celebration in Jacksonville.

Bortles and the Jaguars (3-12) played inspired football and won for the first time this season at EverBank Field. Maybe they rallied around interim coach Doug Marrone. Maybe they played for ultra-popular ex-coach Gus Bradley, who was fired six days earlier. Maybe they just wanted to avenge an embarrassing loss to the Titans (8-7) on national television in late October.

The Titans had won three in a row and seven of 10 entering the game. All they needed to do was beat reeling Jacksonville to set up an AFC South title game next week against Houston. Instead, they lost, and the Texans beat Cincinnati to clinch the division for the second straight year and eliminate Tennessee.

TEXANS 12, BENGALS 10

HOUSTON (AP) - Tom Savage threw for 176 yards for Houston in his first career start and Cincinnati missed a field goal as time expired, giving the Texans their second straight AFC South title.

The Bengals converted a fourth down play to keep a drive alive, but four plays later, former Texan Randy Bullock's 43-yard attempt sailed wide right to secure Houston's victory.

Savage helped the Texans (9-6) rally for a win over the Jaguars last week after taking over when Brock Osweiler was benched after throwing interceptions on back-to-back possessions in the second quarter.

Cincinnati (6-8-1) regained the lead when Dalton found Brandon LaFell on a short pass and he took it 86 yards for a touchdown that made it 10-6 with about 11 minutes left. Alfred Blue's 24-yard touchdown run put the Texans back on top with about 9 minutes left, but the extra point was blocked.

BROWNS 20, CHARGERS 17

CLEVELAND (AP) - The Browns are winless no more.

Cleveland avoided that fate Saturday by beating San Diego for its first victory in more than a year. San Diego's Josh Lambo missed a 45-yard field goal as time expired, giving the Browns (1-14) their first win in 377 days.

When the kick sailed right, Cleveland's small crowd erupted in celebration and Browns players poured off their sideline as if they had just won the Super Bowl.

The Browns avoided becoming the second team to go 0-15, and no longer have to worry about joining the 2008 Detroit Lions as the only teams to lose all 16 games.

Cleveland built 10-point lead in the third quarter and hung on - defensive tackle Jamie Meder blocked a potential tying field goal with 3:49 left - to give coach Hue Jackson his first win with the Browns.

The win also snapped Cleveland's 17-game losing streak dating to last season.

The Chargers (5-10) lost their fourth straight and one that could sting for a while.

CARDINALS 34, SEAHAWKS 31

SEATTLE (AP) - The Arizona Cardinals continue to give the Seattle Seahawks headaches at home. This time, it will likely end up costing Seattle a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Chandler Catanzaro hit a 43-yard field goal on the final play.

Seattle (9-5-1) rallied from a 31-18 deficit, scoring two touchdowns inside the final 3 minutes to pull even at 31. Jimmy Graham had a 37-yard touchdown catch and Paul Richardson's 5-yard TD with 1:06 left tied it. Steven Hauschka missed the extra point that could have given Seattle the lead.

Arizona (6-8-1) went 50 yards in the final minute and Catanzaro's kick was good, delivering a huge blow to Seattle's chances at the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

It was the Seahawks' first home loss this season; all NFL teams have now been beaten in a home game.

FALCONS 33, PANTHERS 16

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - The Falcons are back on top of the NFC South, capturing their first division title since 2012.

Matt Ryan threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns, Tevin Coleman had 135 yards from scrimmage, including a pivotal 55-yard fourth-quarter TD run.

The Falcons then had to wait about 3 1/2 hours to celebrate when the Saints defeated the Buccaneers to seal Atlanta's first playoff appearance in four years.

The Panthers (6-9) were officially eliminated from playoff contention after making the Super Bowl last season.

Ryan torched the Panthers for the second time this season. He threw for 503 yards and four TDs in Atlanta's Week 4 win over Carolina at the Georgia Dome, a victory that set the stage for the Falcons' playoff push.

SAINTS 31, BUCCANEERS 24

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - Mark Ingram rushed for two-touchdowns and a game-sealing first down in the final minutes.

The Buccaneers (8-7) needed a win to keep pace with Green Bay (9-6) for the final NFC wild-card spot, but couldn't keep up with the Saints' explosive offense. And their loss handed the NFC South to Atlanta, while giving the New York Giants a wild-card berth.

Drew Brees was 23 of 34 for 299 yards and a touchdown for New Orleans (7-8), which gained 417 total yards and did not have a turnover against a with 26 takeaways - including three interceptions of Brees in the clubs' previous meeting two weeks earlier.

This time, it was New Orleans' defense producing turnovers; Jairus Bryd intercepted Jameis Winston twice. The first takeaway set up Ingram's second TD, and the second stalled a promising Bucs drive into Saints territory.

Now Tampa Bay must win the season finale and hope for losses by Washington and Green Bay next week. If that happens, a complicated tie-breaker based on strength of victories will decide the final playoff spot between the Bucs and Packers.

PATRIOTS 41, JETS 3

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) - Tom Brady passed for 214 yards and three touchdowns , and the Patriots moved a step closer to securing home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

A loss or tie by the Raiders against the Colts later Saturday would officially give New England the AFC's top seed.

Malcolm Butler added two interceptions and a fumble recovery , and LeGarrette Blount had a pair of 1-yard touchdown runs.

New England (13-2) took advantage of New York miscues all day, scoring on three of its first four possessions.

The Jets (4-11), who have lost six of seven, had four turnovers.

The only really good piece of news for the Jets came before the game, when Todd Bowles rejoined the team and coached from the sideline a day after a medical scare sent him to the hospital.

PACKERS 38, VIKINGS 25

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - Aaron Rodgers threw for 347 yards and four touchdowns, WHILE Jordy Nelson shredded Minnesota's secondary for 154 yards and two scores.

The Packers' fifth straight win set up a winner-take-all showdown next week with Detroit for the NFC North title, while extinguishing the Vikings' faint postseason hopes.

Green Bay (9-6) built a 28-13 lead at halftime, with Rodgers accounting for all four scores. He finished 28 of 38, and shrugged off his right calf injury after scrambling for a 6-yard touchdown late in the second quarter and making a rare Lambeau Leap.

Rodgers and Nelson connected for scores from 21 and 2 yards in the first half.

Playing again without running back Adrian Peterson, the Vikings (7-8) had success through the air after Sam Bradford threw for 382 yards and three touchdowns, including a 71-yard touchdown pass to Adam Thielen in the second quarter. Thielen had a career-high 202 yards and two scores.

DOLPHINS 34, BILLS 31, OT

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) - Jay Ajayi ran for 206 yards and broke loose for a 57-yarder in overtime to set up Andrew Franks' 27-yard field goal.

In winning for the ninth time in 10 games, the Dolphins (10-5) inched closer to their first playoff berth since 2008. Miami can secure the AFC's final wild-card berth as early as Sunday if Denver loses to Kansas City.

Denver needs to win its final two games to make the postseason, and Baltimore is eliminated from the wild-card race and can only make the playoffs as the AFC North champion.

The Bills (7-8) were eliminated from contention and extended the NFL's longest active playoff drought to 17 seasons. Buffalo's drought is tied for the fifth longest in NFL history, and is the longest since the New Orleans Saints went 20 years before qualifying for the playoffs for the first time in franchise history in 1987.

Ajayi is the fourth player in NFL history to have at least three games with 200 rushing yards in a season. Earl Campbell, OJ Simpson, Tiki Barber are the others.

Franks forced overtime by hitting a career-best 55-yard field goal with 6 seconds remaining.

REDSKINS 41, BEARS 21

CHICAGO (AP) - Kirk Cousins threw for a touchdown and ran for two more, and the Redskins gave their fading playoff hopes a boost.

DeSean Jackson added 114 yards receiving, and Washington (8-6-1) intercepted Matt Barkley five times.

Eighth in the NFC behind Green Bay and Tampa Bay coming in, Washington scored 14 points in the first quarter after struggling early in recent games, and never really was threatened by the Bears (3-12).

Cousins, shaky against Carolina, was 18 of 29 for 270 yards. He threw a 17-yard touchdown to Chris Thompson in the first quarter and scored on a 9-yard run in the second. He also pushed in from the 1 late in the third to make it 31-14.

49ERS 22, RAMS 21

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Colin Kaepernick threw a 10-yard touchdown pass with 31 seconds remaining and scrambled for a go-ahead 2-point conversion as the 49ers overcame a 14-point deficit to end a 13-game losing streak.

Kaepernick rolled to his right while looking for a receiver before tucking the ball and barreling into the end zone. That gave the 49ers a sweep in the renewal of the instate rivalry with the Rams' return to Los Angeles this season.

Kaepernick threw for 257 yards, two touchdowns and one interception and rushed for a touchdown for the 49ers (2-13).

Kaepernick found Rod Streater on a slant pattern to cap a 10-play, 73-yard drive to make it 21-20.

Jared Goff was intercepted by Rashard Robinson with 16 seconds left as the Rams again squandered a late two-score lead for the second time in their past three home games.

Goff, the No. 1 overall draft pick, has lost all six of his starts for Los Angeles (4-11).

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 16
December 24, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9

Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12 | Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15


Week 16

1) Detroit +7 (519)
2) Green Bay -6.5 (468) WIN
3) Atlanta -2.5 (430) WIN
4) Baltimore +5.5 (414)
5) Houston -1 (409) WIN

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 16 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Giants (-2.5) 192 Philadelphia (+2.5) 119
Washington (-3) 287 Chicago (+3) 280
Miami (+3.5) 215 Buffalo (-3.5) 399
Tampa Bay (+3) 397 New Orleans (-3) 274
Atlanta (-2.5) 430 Carolina (+2.5) 290
Minnesota (+6.5) 202 Green Bay (-6.5) 468
N.Y. Jets (+16.5) 160 New England (-16.5) 130
Tennessee (-5) 393 Jacksonville (+5) 220
San Diego (-6) 296 Cleveland (+6) 300
Indianapolis (+3.5) 351 Oakland (-3.5) 288
San Francisco (+3.5) 85 Los Angeles (-3.5) 179
Arizona (+7.5) 170 Seattle (-7.5) 163
Cincinnati (+1) 214 Houston (-1) 409
Baltimore (+5.5) 414 Pittsburgh (-5.5) 244
Denver (+3.5) 263 Kansas City (-3.5) 296
Detroit (+7) 519 Dallas (-7) 88


WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%
3 0-5 3-12 20%
4 1-4 4-16 20%
5 3-2 7-18 28%
6 1-3-1 8-21-1 28%
7 3-2 11-23-1 32%
8 3-2 14-25-1 35%
9 2-3 16-28-1 36%
10 0-5 16-33-1 32%
11 3-2 19-35-1 35%
12 5-0 24-35-1 40%
13 3-2 27-37-1 42%
14 4-0-1 31-37-2 46%
15 2-2-1 33-39-3 46%

[StarDust Bum]

AFC West heats up SNF
December 23, 2016

Week 16 SNF Betting Preview
Denver vs. Kansas City

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Kansas City (-3.5); Total set at 37.5

The two AFC West teams meeting up on SNF are looking to bounce back after disappointing losses, but it's the Denver Broncos who are in the more dire situation as they are on the outside looking in regarding the playoff picture and need to win out and get some help along the way.

Not returning to the playoffs would be a huge disappointment for the defending Super Bowl Champions, but it wouldn't be unexpected as life after Peyton Manning was going to come with some growing pains on the offensive side of the ball.

Denver's offense has been atrocious down the stretch and their poor play even caused a locker room spat within the team between offense and defense after last week's loss. Can QB Trevor Siemian and company turn it around it time for Denver to save their season?

The Broncos are in the bottom third of the league in nearly every offensive category this year and if it wasn't for their top tier defense, we'd be talking about this team being 4-10 SU rather than 8-6 SU. The old adage of “defense winning championships” may hold plenty of truth, but you've got to get to the playoffs first before a championship can be won and the Broncos backs are up against the wall in that regard.

The good news for Denver is that their best offensive performance of the past six weeks came against this Kansas City Chiefs team, as they put up 27 points in an OT loss.

It was the Denver defense that let the squad down that day as they allowed KC to tie it up with a TD and 2-pt conversion with under 10 seconds remaining, and one can't help but wonder if that result went the other way how the fortunes of these two franchises would have changed the scenarios for this week.

Based on the locker room spat between the two sides of the ball a week ago, chances are the Broncos defense won't be letting the team down again and will do everything in their power to hold the Chiefs down this week and possibly even put up some points.

KC blew their own late late last week in losing 19-17 at home vs. Tennessee and now have to win at least one of their final two games to clinch a playoff berth.

The Chiefs are still in the conversation for a division crown and a Top-2 seed in the AFC, but like Denver, they'll need more production from their offense the rest of the way if a Super Bowl appearance is in the cards.

This is not a good week to expect much improvement from KC's offense as the Broncos defense is stout, so look for KC's own defense to match what Denver does and continue to force turnovers as they've done all season.

So what does this all add up too from a betting perspective?

Well, for one, barring another OT game, don't expect anywhere near 57 points scored again between these two as there is too much on the line for both sides not to have both rely on their strength (defensive football) to get the job done.

I've mentioned on other division rematch games this year that it's typically a good idea to flip the results in the return meeting (if game 1 went over, take under etc) and this SNF game fits the bill.

There is no way anyone out there can trust the Broncos offense to put up more than 17 points these days and Kansas City will have a hard time reaching that number themselves vs a Broncos defense that hasn't given up that many points in three straight weeks.

Denver is 1-5 O/U in their last six away from home and have gone a perfect 0-5 O/U when failing to cover the spread their last time out.

Kansas City is on a 2-8 O/U run overall and is 1-5 O/U themselves off a loss.

Throw in a 0-4 O/U mark for the Chiefs at home vs a winning team, a 15-38 O/U run at home overall, and a 3-7-2 O/U run in the last 12 meetings between these two and points will be at a premium in this contest.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Christmas Tips
December 22, 2016

The NFL has given us a couple of Week 16 Christmas games to be very merry about with four teams all fighting for a playoff berth and the results of Sunday's game will make the postseason picture much clearer.

The Steelers can clinch a division crown with a win against the Ravens in the early game and the Chiefs can clinch a spot in the nightcap against the Broncos.

Let's take at how these two rivalries stack up:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5, 44)
NFL Network, 4:30 p.m. ET

The Ravens have won four straight over the Steelers, but if Pittsburgh can halt the streak and win Sunday at Heinz Field they'll clinch the AFC North. However, Baltimore controls its own destiny. If they win Sunday and next week at Cincinnati, they'll clinch the division and be the AFC's No. 3 seed in the playoffs.

Prior to Saturday's games, the Ravens were outside looking in as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. They've built up their respect with Las Vegas oddsmakers over the past seven weeks by going 5-2. However, they've lost the past four on the road and are just 1-5 ATS on the road this season which is part of the reason Pittsburgh is as high as a six-point favorite at CG Technology sports books for this one.

The other reason Pittsburgh is favored so high is because they're peaking at the right time and playing to expectations that their high rating had when the season started. After going through a stretch of losing and failing to cover four straight, Pittsburgh has won and covered its last five with the running game, passing game and defense all being dominant at times.

Four of those five games during the win streak have stayed 'under' the total. Pittsburgh's 10-4 'under' mark is tied with two other teams as second-best in the NFL. Sunday's total is set with a a high at 45 and a low at 44.

RECENT MEETINGS

Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the Under is 3-0-1 as well.

TRENDS

-- Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in last seven against NFC North teams.
-- Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in last five road games.
-- Baltimore 'under' is 5-1-1 in last seven Week 16 games.

-- Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in last six against AFC North teams.
-- Pittsburgh in 5-0 ATS in last five games.
-- Pittsburgh 'under' is 19-6-1 in last 26 against NFC North teams.

Denver at Kansas City (-3.5, 37.5)
NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET

All the Chiefs need to clinch a playoff berth is for Baltimore to either tie or lose Sunday's earlier game at Pittsburgh or take care of business on their own with a win or tie at home against the Broncos in the evening.

For the Broncos, they have all kinds of scenarios that could give them a playoff berth by either winning their final two games and finishing 10-6 or splitting them and finishing 9-7. Any way they slice it, they're still outside looking in to the playoff equation and need lots of help.

"The only scenario I know is that if we don't win, we get no chance," said Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak.

Those chances look bleak based on what we've all seen out of the Broncos lately. After starting 4-0 they've lost six of their last 10, including three of their last four. However, they have won the last four visits to Arrowhead Stadium.

The Denver defense has been steady, ranked No. 2 overall (310 YPG allowed) while also tied for No. 1 with 40 sacks. But the run defense has been a source for repeated success by opponents, ranked No. 29 allowing 127 yards per game. The sluggish offense has shown it can't run the ball (91 YPG) and can't score getting just 13 points combined in its it last two games. The passing game will also suffer this week as the top two tight-ends are likely to be 'out' with concussions.

The top reason for Denver optimism coming into this game is "Mother Nature" which could turn this into a really ugly game that bodes well for Denver's defense to make some big plays. Thunderstorms are expected with winds as high as 24 miles per hour, which means passing will be very difficult and turnovers with slippery balls should be high for both teams.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Chiefs may have already clinched a playoff spot with a Baltimore loss which could lend belief that Kansas City might not play as hard, but they're still in the hunt for the AFC West crown and if Oakland loses to the Colts Saturday a Kansas City win would put them in first-place by virtue of sweeping the Raiders this season. So don't expect major line adjustment based on other teams results heading into the game. However, some serious line movement has already happened. The -- Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Kansas City -6 on Sunday night and by Monday afternoon it had been bet down to -4 and then -3.5 on Tuesday. The total has dropped from 38 down to 37.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

RECENT MEETINGS

The Broncos have covered six of its past seven at Kansas City and the road team has covered the last six meetings. Kansas City has won the past two meetings, both at Denver.

TRENDS

-- Denver is 1-4 ATS in last five against winning teams.
-- Denver is 1-5 ATS in last six against AFC West teams.
-- Denver 'under' is 5-1 in last six road games.

-- Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in last 10 home games.
-- Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in last five following an ATS loss.
-- Kansas City 'under' is 38-15 in last 53 home games.

[StarDust Bum]

Lions, 'Boys meet on MNF
December 23, 2016!

Week 16 MNF Betting Preview
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Dallas (-6); Total set at 44

Thanks to the Giants loss on TNF in Philadelphia, the Dallas Cowboys have clinched the NFC East division and the #1 seed in the conference.

That means it's all about health preservation right now for Dallas, although staying in rhythm and not killing much of the momentum they've built during a tremendous season would be nice as well.

That outcome also throws a wrench into handicapping this contest as it's tough to expect the best effort from the Cowboys here as winning isn't their #1 priority anymore.

The same can't be said about the Detroit Lions as almost everyone who is following the NFL expects the Detroit/Green Bay game in Week 17 to be for a division championship.

That brings up a lot more issues dealing with everyone assuming the Packers will dominate the Vikings this week, but should Green Bay lose and Detroit win this week, that Week 17 showdown won't mean anything for the Lions who will have clinched the division already.

So with nothing to play for on one side (Dallas) and seemingly everything to play for on the other (Detroit), seeing a point spread this high seems a little absurd.

Not surprisingly, after the Giants loss on TNF, money started to flood in on the Lions ATS, pushing this line down from +7 and +7.5 in some cases down to it's current number.

Those bettors are looking to get ahead of the curve as most NFL action comes in on gameday, so don't be surprised if you see this spread drop even further before Monday Night. It's tough not to agree with that mindset, so if you had already leaned on Detroit before TNF, jumping on board with the Lions sooner than later is optimal.

That's precisely what I'm doing as I'm sure the Cowboys have had discussions on Friday about the best ways to keep everyone sharp and healthy without a meaningful game for three weeks and we could even see a Tony Romo sighting this week.

Rookie QB Dak Prescott doesn't have the career experience to warrant sitting from the get-go, but giving him a bit of a break at some point to mitigate those dreaded “rookie wall” effects can't hurt, and letting Romo face live bullets before possibly needing him in the postseason can't hurt.

Romo is not your typical backup QB that could be put in this position though and that's likely why we haven't seen this point spread drop a little lower yet.

Detroit lost to those same Giants a week ago, halting a five-game winning streak for the Lions and there is no question they've got one eye peaking over at their Week 17 contest vs the Packers.

But if Detroit does want to not only get into the playoffs, but do some damage while there, the offense is going to have to start clicking again and facing a Dallas defense that has little motivation and could be sitting guys is a good place for Matthew Stafford and company to start getting back on track.

Yet, lose this game and no matter what that Packers game is for a division crown, but win this week, and there is (theoretically) a 50/50 chance the Lions could rest some of their own players next week.

At the very least, expect Detroit to keep this game very close (as most of their games have been this year) in what could end up being a contest that sees a few more points then expected.

Detroit is 5-1 ATS in thier last six appearances on MNF, and have a 24-9 ATS run going after scoring less than 15 points last time out.

Add in the fact that the Lions are also 15-7-1 O/U after putting up less than 15, and five of the past six meetings with Dallas have gone 'over' and there are two very attractive plays on this contest.

Best Bet: Take Detroit (+6) and Over 44.5

[StarDust Bum]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:

12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/15/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/18/2016 14-12-0 53.85% +400
12/22/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/19/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/22/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/24/2016 12-11-1 52.17% -50

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 127-145-8 46.69% -16250

O/U Picks 131-141-7 48.16% -12050

Triple Plays:..... 75 - 80 - 5

BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1

BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 11 - 10



SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BAL at PIT 04:30 PM

PIT -6. *****

O 44.5 *****

DEN at KC 08:30 PM

KC -3.0 *****

O 37.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:

12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/15/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/18/2016 14-12-0 53.85% +400
12/22/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/19/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/22/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/24/2016 12-11-1 52.17% -50
12/25/2016 3-1-0 75.00% +950

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 128-146-8 46.72% -16300

O/U Picks 133-141-7 48.54% -11050

Triple Plays:..... 78 - 81 - 5

BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1

BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 11 - 10

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Capsules
December 26, 2016

PITTSBURGH (AP) Ben Roethlisberger shook off a pair of interceptions to throw two late touchdowns, including a 4-yard strike to Antonio Brown with 9 seconds remaining to lift the Steelers to a 31-27 victory over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. Brown caught Roethlisberger's pass just short of the goal line and stretched the ball into the end zone with his left hand to cap a wild fourth quarter and give Pittsburgh (10-5) its second division title in three years.

The Ravens took the lead on Kyle Juszczyk's 10-yard burst up the middle with 1:18 remaining. But Roethlisberger calmly led the Steelers 75 yards in 10 plays, the last 4 coming as Brown fought through a pair of tacklers to assure the Steelers of a third straight playoff berth.

The Ravens (8-7) were officially eliminated when Joe Flacco's pass near midfield was intercepted on the final play.

Kansas City secured a playoff berth with the Baltimore loss.

The Steelers have won six straight and ended a four-game losing streak to Baltimore.

CHIEFS 33, BRONCOS 10

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) - With their postseason spot secured, the Chiefs turned to Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill to roll past the Broncos and keep their AFC West title hopes alive.

Kelce had 11 catches for 160 yards and a touchdown, and Hill took a handoff 70 yards for another score, as the Chiefs (11-4) beat the Broncos (8-7) for the third straight time and eliminated the Super Bowl champions from postseason contention.

Kansas City punctuated the win in style when 346-pound defensive tackle Dontari Poe, lined up at quarterback, threw a jump pass to Demetrius Harris with just under two minutes left.

A win next weekend in San Diego coupled with an Oakland loss in Denver would give the Chiefs their first division title since 2010, not to mention a first-round bye and home playoff game.

Meanwhile, the Broncos trudged through another inept offensive performance.

Trevor Siemian was 17 of 43 for 183 yards and a game-ending interception, and the only TD drive he led came after a pick gave him the ball at the Kansas City 6. Justin Forsett scored two plays later.

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MNF - Lions at Cowboys
December 25, 2016

The final NFL game of 2016 takes place in Dallas on Monday night with an NFC battle between the Cowboys and Lions. Dallas has wrapped up home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs by virtue of New York’s loss to Philadelphia on Thursday night. Detroit can clinch a playoff spot with a victory on Monday, but can’t capture the NFC North title until next Sunday’s matchup with Green Bay.

LAST WEEK

The Cowboys (12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS) pulled out a 26-20 home victory over the Buccaneers as kicker Dan Bailey knocked in three field goals in the fourth quarter. Dallas failed to cover the spread for the fourth straight game as it closed as 6 ½-point favorites, but running back Ezekiel Elliott continued his solid rookie season by rushing for 159 yards and a touchdown. Elliott has eclipsed the 100-yard mark seven times this season, while fellow rookie standout Dak Prescott completed 32-of-36 passes for 276 yards. Dallas’ defense stepped up by creating four takeaways (three interceptions and a fumble recovery), as the Cowboys cashed the UNDER for the third consecutive contest.

The Lions (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 17-6 setback to the Giants as four-point underdogs. Detroit was held to its lowest point total of the season, while hitting the UNDER for the eighth straight game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford couldn’t get the Lions in the end zone as he continues to nurse a dislocated finger on his throwing hand. The Lions rushed for 56 yards as Detroit has been held to less than 100 yards on the ground in 12 of the past 13 games.

UNDER THUNDER

Both teams are solid UNDER streaks as mentioned above, as Detroit has allowed 20 points or less in each of the eight games during this UNDER run. Since cashing a pair of OVERS at Indianapolis and Green Bay in September, Detroit has finished UNDER the total in five consecutive games away from Ford Field. Dallas is 4-3 to the UNDER at home this season, as the Cowboys have given up 20 points or fewer in five home contests.

SERIES HISTORY

The Cowboys knocked out the Lions in the 2013 Wild Card round, 24-20, but Detroit cashed as six-point underdogs. Detroit jumped out to an early 14-0 cushion, but the Cowboys rallied back thanks to a late Tony Romo touchdown pass to Terrance Williams with 2:32 remaining in regulation to take the lead for good. The Lions have won each of the past two regular season meetings with the Cowboys, including a 34-30 triumph in 2011 as Detroit erased a 27-3 deficit.

LINE MOVEMENT

When the Las Vegas Westgate Superbook put out opening numbers on Week 16 games last week, the Cowboys opened as seven-point favorites with Dallas shaded at -120 (Bet $120 to win $100). That number has slightly dipped to 6 ½, while the total jumped from 43 in the opener to 45 on Sunday afternoon.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson looks at Detroit’s latest setback in which New York took advantage of several Lions’ mishaps, “Last week’s loss to the Giants was devastating with great missed opportunities losing a scoring opportunity with a fumble for a touchback and also having a Stafford interception in the end zone as Detroit wound up with more yardage than New York but only six points.”

Detroit continues to play close contests in spite of last week’s double-digit defeat, as Nelson points out how close the margins have been with the Lions, “Detroit has played almost exclusively close games this season as the 11-point loss last week was the largest margin of defeat for the Lions all season while eight of the nine wins for the Lions came by single scores. Detroit is 3-4 in its road games this season and this will be a second straight road test vs. a top NFC contender.”

With Dallas’ recent struggles against the number at home, that is something that could continue on Monday according to Nelson, “Dallas has been a historically awful home favorite in recent years with an 11-29-1 ATS run since the start of the 2010 season. Detroit has not been this big of an underdog all season while going 5-3 ATS while getting points this season, though only 2-3 ATS in the road instances.”

PRIMETIME NUMBERS

This is the final Monday night game of the season as favorites have posted a 6-9-1 SU/ATS record, as no underdogs have covered in losses. Two underdogs of six points or more have won outright on Monday nights this season, including Carolina (+7) last week against Washington. The UNDER is 9-6-1 on Mondays, but four of those OVERS have hit in the last seven games. Both Dallas and Detroit are playing their first Monday night game this season, as the Cowboys are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their past four as a Monday night home favorite since 2010.

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Detroit

M. Stafford – Total Completions
24 ½ - OVER (-110)
24 ½ - UNDER (-110)

M. Stafford – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+120)
1 ½ - UNDER (-140)

G. Tate – Total Receiving Yards
67 ½ - OVER (-110)
67 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Dallas

D. Prescott – Total Gross Passing Yards
239 ½ - OVER (-110)
239 ½ - UNDER (-110)

D. Prescott – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (+110)
1 ½ - UNDER (-130)

E. Elliott – Total Rushing Yards
102 ½ - OVER (-110)
102 ½ - UNDER (-110)

NEXT WEEK

The Cowboys are playing out the string with home-field wrapped up as Dallas travels to Philadelphia in Week 17. The Westgate Superbook opened the Eagles as slight one-point home favorites. The Lions host the Packers in a winner-take-all matchup at Ford Field for the NFC North title. Green Bay opened as a one-point road favorite according to the Westgate Superbook.

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NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:

12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/15/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/18/2016 14-12-0 53.85% +400
12/22/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/19/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/22/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/24/2016 12-11-1 52.17% -50
12/25/2016 3-1-0 75.00% +950

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 128-146-8 46.72% -16300

O/U Picks 133-141-7 48.54% -11050

Triple Plays:..... 78 - 81 - 5

BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1

BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 11 - 10

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Opening Line Report - Week 17
December 26, 2016

Week 17 in the NFL is always a perplexing one to handicap. Between teams that have been eliminated from postseason contention and those whose playoff seeds are solidified, it is extremely difficult for gamblers to gauge motivational levels.

Even when a coach states publicly that his playoff-bound team will go all out in its regular-season finale, those remarks should be taken with a healthy dose of salt.

"Coaches love to lie to the media, and the media’s dumb enough to take whatever they say as gospel, said Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Salmons added, "Week 17 gets to the point where it’s a glorified preseason week. (For bettors), it’s just about finding information. You find more information than the guy booking the line at the current time and you bet it."

Here are the opening betting lines for the final week of the 2016-17 regular season, some of which would seem awfully strange in any other week. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday, with early moves and differences among books also noted.

Sunday, Jan. 1, 2017

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-3, 40)

With Marcus Mariota out with a broken leg, Matt Cassel gets the call at quarterback for Tennessee. This line dipped to as low as Titans -2.5 and rose to as high as -3 (-120) at the Westgate on Monday. It’s a game of no playoff significance – the Texans have clinched the AFC South and are locked into the No. 4 seed, and Titans have been eliminated.

Buffalo Bills (-6, 44) at New York Jets

There are +6.5s available for dog bettors and 44.5s for those interested in ‘under’ for this meaningless AFC East clash.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 41.5)

Stations opened Cincy -1.5 before joining the rest of the crowd at -2.5. Both teams are out of the playoff race.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-8, 44.5)

With the Redskins needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and the Giants locked into the No. 5 seed, here’s one of those strange lines we alluded to above.

"The Giants are using backup NFL players, not their frontline guys, and that’s why the spread is what it is, Salmons said.

There were plenty of 7.5s around for gamblers interested in laying the points with the Redskins next week.

Green Bay Packers (-3, 46.5) at Detroit Lions

Green Bay opened -3 throughout Las Vegas for the de facto NFC North championship game, which has been flexed into NBC’s primetime slot at 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. The total is between 46.5 and 47.

Salmons hasn’t been high on the Packers all season, and their five-game winning streak hasn’t changed his mind.

"I don’t like Green Bay, Salmons said. "I think they’re beating up on nonsense, so I don’t buy them. I know the public will. The public’s going to bet them like crazy this week.

Salmons said he’d be interested in Detroit at +3.5, but said, "at 3, I probably wouldn’t bet it."

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5, 47)

The Colts opened -6 at multiple books on Sunday, but the line was adjusted in one flash Monday to -4.5 at most shops. MGM Resorts was dealing Jacksonville +5 as of this writing for those looking to take the points in this meaningless AFC South contest. ‘Under’ bettors could find 47.5 at the Wynn.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 42.5)

With home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs under wraps, the betting market is not expecting full effort from the Cowboys next week.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 41)

The Westgate opened Minny -5.5 on Monday with a move to -5 in early wagering, while the Wynn hung -6 and stood pat. Let’s call 5.5 the consensus. Both teams are out of the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs (-6.5, 46.5)

The Bucs’ playoff chances are on life support – and officially dead if the Lions beat the Cowboys on Monday night – but they jumped from -4 to -6.5 at multiple books.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, 44.5)

Monday’s opening line of Pittsburgh -10 at the Westgate was bet down to -7.5 within about four hours. With the Steelers locked into the No. 3 seed in the AFC South, Salmons expects next Sunday’s home date against the lowly Browns to be a "Landry Jones" game.

Salmons said, "(Ben) Roethlisberger will play, if they went crazy, maybe a quarter, and that would seem like a lot. I can see him playing one series, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t even play.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-7 even, 55)

This line was being dealt between Atlanta -6.5 and -7, with the Falcons able to grab the NFC’s No. 2 seed and a first-round bye with a win.

"Seems a little high, Salmons said the number. "They’re definitely taking the teams that have to win and essentially tacked on 2 points, 3 points in these games. There’s a lot of that going on this week."

New England Patriots (-9.5, 44.5) at Miami Dolphins

With a win clinching the No. 1 seed in the AFC for the Patriots, while the best Miami can do is move from No. 6 to No. 5, the Pats were adjusted from -7.5 to -9.5 in early wagering at the Westgate. The total is between 44.5 and 45 around Vegas.

"I assume Miami’s going to rest some players," Salmons said.

Arizona Cardinals (-6, 41) at Los Angeles Rams

This line moved from 6.5 to 6 at multiple bet shops, but the higher number was still available as of this writing for those considering the 'dog in this meaningless game.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 45) at San Diego Chargers

Chiefs -4 became -4.5 on a lot of betting boards in Las Vegas, as Kansas City can win the AFC West with win and an Oakland loss at Denver.

Said Salmons, "You basically want to make the line as high as you can make it without the wiseguys betting the 'dog. You knew it was more than 3 and less than 7, so it’s somewhere in that area.

"The public’s going to bet Kansas City because they keep reading everywhere that Kansas City needs to win so they can get the 2 seed. But you expect San Diego to show up in this game.

Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 43) at San Francisco 49ers

Seattle on Monday was as low as -8.5 and as high as -10 for its season finale. The Seahawks need a win and some help to improve to the No.2 position in the NFC for a first-round bye.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 42)

The Raiders can assure themselves of a first-round bye by beating the Broncos in Denver, but they’ll have to do it without quarterback David Carr. While the line here moved from Denver -3 to -2.5 at several shops, Salmons said, "If Carr was playing, this line would be Oakland -3 easily."

Matt McGloin is expected to start for Oakland.

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Books win holiday weekend
December 26, 2016

Who says there's no Santa Claus?

After a rough nine weeks of NFL action, Las Vegas sports books got a Christmas wish delivered by the bearded big man over the holiday weekend that started on Thursday and continued through Christmas Day with a perfect mix of decisions helping them to a winning Week 16.

At the same time, wise-guys -- who have been struggling most of the NFL season, also came along for the victory parade ride as their persistence of taking 'value' with the Cleveland Browns finally paid off after seven straight weeks of failing to cover the number. The Browns didn't just cover (+4), they'd win their first game of the year, 20-17, over the Chargers on Christmas Eve making the Cleveland faithful have their Christmas wish come true as well.

The winning Christmas wish-come-true story all started started Thursday night with the New York Giants playing at Philadelphia where the line opened earlier in the week with the Giants -3 and quickly went to -2.5. Sharp money liked the situation of a struggling Eagles squad to play well at home against the red-hot Giants and on game day had driven the number to Philly being a one-point favorite, despite overwhelming public support playing the Giants. Public money would eventually push the Giants back to -2 at a few books.

The Eagles would pull off a 24-19 win and despite taking lots of sharp action, the books were able to come away winners because of all the public small money adding large.

The thing that really impressed me about the booking strategy in that game was how the books stayed true to their proven methods of the past three decades that always netted profits rather than adjusting on the fly to match the anomaly of a rough losing stretch.

It may not sound like a big deal, but when the book's bosses are constantly hearing grumbles from upstairs about losing NFL Sunday's that were forecasted as big wins, there could be reason to alter the proven methods and change due to the climate. But through all the losses, they continued to book with the large money and move based on respected faces.

And give it up for the wise guys as well for staying true to their betting methods of taking any ounce of perceived value and putting the continued losses in the rear-view mirror like it never happened. Once again, they were on the Browns and drove the number from +6 down to +4 and that persistence paid off.

The public were still all over the Chargers at most bet shops. William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada had 78 percent of all tickets written on the game siding with San Diego and 65 percent of the cash despite large sharp play on the Browns. When the sharps win, the books usually do which has been part of a long standing relationship between the two sides.

The rest of the Christmas Eve games on Saturday turned out well for the books with underdogs covering six of the 12 games and eight of the games going 'over' the total.

"It was our best NFL Sunday since September....and it happened on a Saturday," said Wesgate SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "The Jaguars outright win started us off and the icing on the cake was the crazy Arizona win. For the first time in many moons the Browns contributed. We also went undefeated in the four afternoon games as we took some bigger plays on Indy."

The Tennessee Titans were playing for a playoff position and were laying five points at Jacksonville who had lost its last nine games and had just fired the head coach. Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota fractured his fibula, but the Jaguars had controlled the game throughout and finally held on to a fourth-quarter lead and won 38-17.

Arizona had nothing to play for and had covered only four of 14 games this season, but they'd hang on to win, 34-31, at Seattle as a nine-point underdog despite some very questionable clock management by Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians. It was the Cardinals third straight win at Seattle and paid +360 on the money-line, which was the largest payout of the six underdogs that won outright on the weekend.

The Raiders (-3) would cover in a 33-25 win over the visiting Indianapolis Colts, but their Super Bowl dreams were dashed when MVP candidate Derek Carr broke his leg in the second-half. Back-up Matt McGloin will take over the reins for the rest of the season. The effect of losing Carr will be felt throughout conference and Super Bowl futures will several teams becoming bigger favorites.

Kornegay also said the 49ers' 22-21 win at Los Angeles (-6) was a big boost for his book. And then in the late game, the Texans would clinch a playoff berth by beating Cincinnati 12-10, but not cover the three-point spread which had moved from pick 'em on game day. Most of the larger public action was laying -2, -2.5 and -3 closer to kickoff.

Christmas Day featured two NFL games featuring divisional rivals and five NBA games including an incredible Cavs 109-108 home win over the Warriors (-3) which helped the books to a solid win. The Steelers 31-27 win over Baltimore (+6) was a small winner for the house and the Chiefs 33-10 win over the Broncos was a small loss even though the sharps were all over the Broncos all week dropping the number from Chiefs -6 to -3. Both the Ravens and Broncos were eliminated from postseason contention.

Moving forward into Week 17 action, the books have to be on their toes with information involving several cliched teams and what their strategies will be regarding whether to rest key starters or play them to avoid rust heading into the playoffs.

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Betting Recap - Week 16
December 26, 2016

Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 16 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 8-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 8-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 12-3

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Cardinals (+9, ML +350) at Seahawks, 34-31
49ers (+6, ML +210) at Rams, 22-21
Browns (+5, ML +180) vs. Chargers, 20-17
Dolphins (+4.5, ML +190) at Bills, 34-31 (OT)
Jaguars (+4.5, ML +180) vs. Titans, 38-17

The largest favorite to cover

Patriots (-17) vs. Jets, 41-3
Packers (-6.5) vs. Vikings, 38-25
Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Broncos, 33-10
Raiders (-3.5) vs. Colts, 33-25

The Patriot Way

-- The New England Patriots managed to cover the biggest spread of the 2016 National Football League regular season, and it was never really close. The Patriots closed as 17-point favorites against the Jets, who normally play the Pats pretty close. Not so in this one, however, as the Pats were still playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Jets were banged up and just playing out the string. The cover was the fourth straight for the Patriots, and runs their record to an NFL-best 12-3 ATS this season. If you like to play totals, the 'under' is 5-1 in their past six, too, and 10-5 overall.

Take Pack...and R-E-L-A-X

-- Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers always tells everyone to "Relax!" when things start going south. The team ws 4-6 SU after a losing a fourth straight in Washington Nov. 20. But Rodgers and the Packers believed in themselves, and, more importantly, they started to get healthy. Since, the Packers have rattled off five consecutive victories and have themselves positioned for a winner-take-all game in Detroit Jan. 1 for the NFC North Division title. Not only are the Packers winning, but they're covering, too. The Packers are 4-1 ATS during their five-game win streak, and the 'over' has cashed in three in a row.
Total Recall

-- It was a very high-scoring week in the NFL, with the 'over' going 12-3 heading into Monday's Detroit Lions-Dallas Cowboys (45.5) battle at Jerry's World. In eight games between AFC foes, the 'over' finished 5-3. The 'over' was a perfect 7-0 in NFC play, with the Monday night game pending.

-- The two games with totals over 50 points each ended up going 'over', as Indianapolis-Oakland (51.5) and Tampa Bay-New Orleans (53) each cashed. The Raiders lost QB Derek Carr to a serious injury late, and the Raiders were scoreless in the fourth quarter. But the Colts outscored them 11-0 to push the total into the win column in the final quarter. The Bucs-Saints combined for just 27 total points two weeks ago in Tampa, but that was also in the rain. With just 20 points on the board at halftime, defenses were reigning surpreme. However, the two sides combined for 29 points in a wild third quarter, and exchanged field goals in the fourth to push the total over.

-- Week 16 saw two games with lines under 40, and they each went to the 'over' column as well. San Francisco-Los Angeles (39.5) was a crazy 'over' result, as the two teams combined for 21 points in the first quarter before going scoreless in both the second and third quarters. In fact, it was a late TD by Colin Kaepernick to Rod Streater, which was reviewed, pushing the total over in the final minute. Denver-Kansas City (38) was expected to be a defensive slog, and with torrential rains at kickoff, the weather figured to help. It didn't. The two teams combined for 28 points in the first quarter. Like the Niners-Rams, the offenses took the second and third quarters off, as there were just three points in the third by Denver. However, K.C. saved the day with 12 points in the final stanza.

-- The 'over' went 3-0 in the first three primetime games heading into Monday's tussle between the Lions-Cowboys (45.5). Officially, the 'over' is 25-24 (51.0%) through 49 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Chargers RB Kenneth Farrow (shoulder) has been filling in for the injured RB Melvin Gordon (hip, knee) sidelined for the past two games, now Farrow is headed for the Reserve/Injured list. Gordon has an outside chance to play in Week 17. If not, it's up to RB Ronnie Hillman to handle the chores in the regular season finale.

-- 49ers RB Carlos Hyde (knee) suffered an injury to his medial collateral ligament in Saturday's win at L.A. and he has been ruled out for Week 17.

-- Raiders QB Derek Carr (fibula) snapped his fibula in the second half against the Colts, and it came on the only sack of the game for Indianapolis. As such, the Raiders open as 3 1/2-point underdog in Denver in Week 17 despite the fact the Broncos are playing for nothing. QB Matt McGloin will take the reins, with an outside chance Carr could return if the team miraculously made the Super Bowl.

-- Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (leg) broke both his tibia and fibula in his right leg in Saturday's loss against Arizona. He has already had surgery to repair the injury.

-- Titans QB Marcus Mariota (fibula) joined Carr headed for the surgeon's table, a cast and a lengthy rehab following a snapped fibula in Saturday's loss in Jacksonville.

Looking Ahead

-- The Dolphins host the Patriots in Week 17, with Miami locked into their seed in the AFC playoffs. New England, however, is still playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Miami lost 31-24 at New England in Week 2, and the Patriots covered as 5 1/2-point favorites. It has been a different story in South Florida in recent years, however, with the Dolphins 3-0 SU at home against the Patriots in the past three seasons dating back to Dec. 2, 2012. Miami has also covered four in a row at home against the Pats.

-- The Panthers wrap up their disappointing season in Tampa against the Buccaneers. The Bucs won 17-14 in a Monday nighter Oct. 10 in Charlotte, covering as six-point underdogs. It was the first win in the series in seven tries for Tampa Bay. The Panthers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the past seven in this series, including 3-0 SU/ATS in the past three trips to Raymond James Stadium.

-- The Steelers could potentially rest starters in the regular season finale against the Browns, and their line dropped from 11 to seven as a result. Still, Vegas thinks the backups of the Steelers are a touchdown better than the starters of the Browns. Pittsburgh won 24-9 in Cleveland Nov. 20, covering an eight-point number. If you're thinking the Browns can build on the momentum of their first win last week, think again. They haven't won in Pittsburgh since Oct. 5, 2003. The Steelers are 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS during the span. Lately in this series the results have been the same - a Steelers win, cover and 'under'. Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over the past eight meetings, with the 'under' 7-1.

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Overreaction: No Derek Carr means no chance for Oakland
December 27, 2016

No Derek Carr means no chance for the Oakland Raiders.

After losing their star quarterback to a broken leg in a win over Indianapolis on Saturday, the Raiders now must turn to Matt McGloin. They go from an MVP candidate under center to a guy who went 1-5 the only time he started in 2013.

Bye-bye, Super Bowl hopes.

Suddenly that high-powered offense doesn't seem so intimidating.

The Raiders (12-3) are playing for the No. 1 seed in the AFC at Denver this week. But they would drop to No. 5 with a loss and a win by Kansas City.

Whether they are the No. 1, 2 or 5 seed, their first trip to the playoffs since 2002 should be a one-and-done experience because backup quarterbacks can't win big games.

Not so fast. It's been done before.

Jeff Hostetler led the Giants to a Super Bowl title after Phil Simms was injured with two games remaining in the 1990 season. And Doug Williams was 0-2 as a starter for the Redskins in 1987, but was 3-0 in the playoffs and threw for 340 yards and four touchdowns against Denver in the Super Bowl.

Maybe McGloin can be next.

Here are other overreactions following Week 16:

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OVERREACTION: The Browns will beat the Steelers and start a winning streak now that they got their first win.

REALISTIC REACTION: If Mike Tomlin plays his starters, forget it. If Ben Roethlisberger and others rest because Pittsburgh is locked into the No. 3 spot, the Browns have a chance to make it two in a row.

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OVERREACTION: Seattle's loss to Arizona cost them a chance to go to the Super Bowl because they're 2-4-1 on the road and now will likely have to win twice on the road in the playoffs.

REALISTIC REACTION: They beat the Patriots in New England. That's proof they can beat any team.

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OVERREACTION: Dontari Poe is a better QB than Tim Tebow.

REALISTIC REACTION: Just because Chiefs coach Andy Reid called Poe's TD toss a ''bloated Tebow pass'' doesn't mean the 346-pound defensive tackle has real QB skills.

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OVERREACTION: Terry Bradshaw will help the Steelers win another Super Bowl because his comments about coach Mike Tomlin inspired the team.

REALISTIC REACTION: When the game is on the line, nobody will care what Bradshaw said about Tomlin.

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OVERREACTION: Tony Romo will get the Broncos back in the playoffs next year.

REALISTIC REACTION: He's still playing for the Cowboys.

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OVERREACTION: Trading a first-round pick for Sam Bradford was the worst move in 2016.

REALISTIC REACTION: If the Vikings didn't lose Adrian Peterson and half their offensive line, they'd be in the playoffs. It's not Bradford's fault Minnesota is 2-8 since a 5-0 start.

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OVERREACTION: Aaron Rodgers was right. The Packers are going to run the table all the way to another Vince Lombardi Trophy.

REALISTIC REACTION: They'll have to win in Seattle, Atlanta or Dallas. Won't be that easy.