The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYG at PHI 08:25 PM

NYG +1.5 *****

U 42.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Eagles end skid, knock off Giants
December 22, 2016

PHILADELPHIA (AP) If the New York Giants continue to play this way, they won't have much of an impact even if they make the playoffs.

Malcolm Jenkins had the second two-interception game of his eight-year career, returning one for a touchdown, and the Philadelphia Eagles snapped a five-game slide by beating the Giants 24-19 on Thursday night. The loss prevented New York from advancing to the playoffs and handed Dallas the NFC East title - and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs.

It also put the Giants (10-5) in a more difficult spot for ending their four-season playoff drought. They still own the top wild-card position heading into their finale at Washington.

''We're disappointed right now in the way we played tonight,'' said Eli Manning, who threw a career-high 63 times, completing 38 for 356 yards, but was picked off three times. ''We know we can bounce back next week and still get a win and get in the playoffs.''

New York can still get in this weekend if Detroit, Green Bay, Tampa Bay or Atlanta loses.

Carson Wentz threw a touchdown pass to Nelson Agholor, then returned from being examined for a concussion in the fourth quarter to guide a drive to Caleb Sturgis' 41-yard field goal. After New York's Robbie Gould made his fourth field goal, Philadelphia (6-9) held on downs with just under two minutes remaining.

The Giants got the ball back with 1:31 left and Terrence Brooks intercepted to clinch it with 5 seconds to go.

''I knew they were going to come at me because I just came in the game,'' said Brooks, a third-stringer. ''I made them pay. I was waiting on it.''

''We expect as an offense to scored touchdowns,'' said Manning, who was inconsistent with his throws all night. On Jenkins' second interception, the throw was woefully short. ''We got in scoring position a bunch and got too many field goals. We got off to a bad start and spotted them 14 points.''

Indeed, the Giants came up short because they fell behind early and didn't catch up.

Right tackle Lane Johnson's return from a 10-game suspension paid dividends immediately. Twice Johnson wiped out the left side of New York's defensive line, with his block helping spring Darren Sproles for a 25-yard touchdown run for a 7-0 lead.

It was 14-0 1:28 later when Manning's short pass to Will Tye was way too soft. Jenkins cut in front of the tight end, then romped down the right side for a 34-yard score.

The current Giants' offense isn't built for big comebacks, and now New York needed one. Manning hit Odell Beckham Jr. on a 30-yard play that highlighted an 80-yard drive to Gould's 35-yard field goal. But Manning also made two inaccurate throws in that series.

It was that way all night, though Beckham made 11 catches for 150 yards and tied his career high of 96 receptions in a season.

''We've been in a slide and things haven't been going our way,'' Jenkins said, ''so we wanted to show up and compete. A lot of guys stepped up. We came up with big stops. It was a huge win for us. Guys showed up today.''

Gould's 35-yard field goal brought the Giants closer. Then Wentz found the seldom-used Agholor wide open for a 40-yard touchdown and a 21-6 edge.

Manning, who was not sacked all night, finally found his touch on the last drive of the half, with a gorgeous 29-yard connection to Victor Cruz keying an 84-yard mark. Shepard slipped past Jenkins' bump at the line to score from 13 yards for a 21-13 deficit.

It was all field goals in the second half - and some more imprecise throws by Manning.

AGHOLOR EMERGES

Agholor, the Eagles' first-round draft pick last year who had only 57 catches in 26 career games, scored his first touchdown this season and third of his career with the 40-yarder in the second period. He had not reached the end zone since the season opener.

CITY OF BROTHERLY LOVE?

Not quite for the Giants, who have lost three straight at the Linc and been outscored 78-26.

CRASH COLLINS

Giants safety Landon Collins, the top tackler at his position in the league and on Tuesday selected to the Pro Bowl in his second season, had nine tackles, giving him 117 for the season.

INJURIES

Giants: DT Damon Harrison left before a fourth-and-inches play at the goal line with a right knee injury. The Giants stopped Philadelphia's run anyway, and Harrison returned later.

Eagles: Aside from Wentz, guard Allen Barbre hurt his right hamstring in the first half and didn't return. Safety Jaylen Watkins left in the third quarter with a concussion. RB Ryan Mathews left in the fourth quarter with a stinger.

NEXT UP

Giants: Finish season at Washington.

Eagles: Host Dallas to finish season.

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 16
December 22, 2016

Week 15 Record: 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS
Overall Record: 42-44 SU, 39-47-2 ATS

Dolphins at Bills (-3 ½, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Miami
Record: 9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS, 10-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

The Dolphins control their own destiny for a playoff spot in the AFC with two games remaining. Miami has won eight of its past nine games, coming off a 34-13 blowout of the Jets last Saturday as backup quarterback Matt Moore tossed four touchdown passes. Moore will start once again for the injured Ryan Tannehill as the Dolphins go for the season sweep of the Bills after beating Buffalo, 28-25 as 2 ½-point home underdogs in Week 7.

Buffalo
Record: 7-7 SU, 6-8 ATS, 11-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Bills will likely fall short of the playoffs in spite of blowing out the Browns last week, 33-13 as 10 ½-point favorites to cash for only the second time in the last eight games. Buffalo has owned Miami at home through the years by winning eight of the past 10 matchups at New Era Stadium, including four straight victories. In each of those wins, the Bills have limited the Dolphins to 17 points or fewer, while Buffalo has covered in each of those games in the home favorite role.

Best Bet: Buffalo -3 ½

Falcons (-2 ½) at Panthers – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta
Record: 9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS, 12-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

Last season, the Falcons handed the Panthers their first loss of the season in Week 16 as a home underdog. The two NFC South rivals meet again in Week 16 but the roles are reversed as Atlanta is listed as a short favorite looking to creep closer towards a division crown. The Falcons are coming off a pair of blowouts over two of the worst teams in the league, beating the Rams and 49ers by a combined score of 83-27. Atlanta has thrived as a favorite from a scoring perspective by putting up at least 28 points in its last seven opportunities in the chalk role.

Carolina
Record: 6-8 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Panthers won’t be heading back to the Super Bowl this season, much less the playoffs. Carolina is looking to finish on a strong note following wins over San Diego and Washington the last two weeks, while trying to avenge a 48-33 setback in Atlanta earlier this season. The Panthers allowed 300 yards receiving to Atlanta’s Julio Jones in that loss, but the Falcons’ standout has missed the last two games with a toe injury as he hopes to return on Saturday. Carolina has won three of the past four home matchups with Atlanta, including a 38-0 shutout last season.

Best Bet: Carolina +2 ½

Vikings at Packers (-6 ½, 43) – 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota
Record: 7-7 SU, 8-6 ATS, 9-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

It’s seems like a lifetime ago when the Vikings were sitting comfortably atop the NFC North at 5-0. Minnesota has slumped to a 2-7 record the last nine games and are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture heading to Lambeau Field. The Vikings suffered their worst loss of the season last Sunday in a 34-6 home setback to the Colts. Minnesota has been limited to 16 points or less in six of its seven losses, but managed to score 17 points and beat Green Bay in Week 2 by a 17-14 count as a 1 ½-point home ‘dog.

Green Bay
Record: 8-6 ATS, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

The Packers are turning it on at the right time by winning four straight games to pull within one of the Lions atop the NFC North as the two teams meet next week in Detroit. Green Bay held off Chicago last Sunday at Soldier Field, 30-27, but failed to cash as 4 ½-point favorites in spite of four takeaways. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown an interception in his last five games for Green Bay, while the Packers are riding a five-game December winning streak at Lambeau Field since 2014.

Best Bet: Minnesota +6 ½

Colts at Raiders (-4, 53) – 4:05 PM EST

Indianapolis
Record: 7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The playoff chances for the Colts are slim at this point, but Indianapolis looks to keep up its road dominance of late after routing Minnesota last Sunday, 34-6 as five-point underdogs. The Colts have won four straight on the highway with all four victories coming in the underdog role, including earlier triumphs at Green Bay and Tennessee. However, Indianapolis has won consecutive games only once this season, owning a 1-5 SU/ATS record off a victory.

Oakland
Record: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS, 10-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 14/1

The Raiders pulled back into first place of the AFC West after last Sunday’s three-point road win at San Diego and Kansas City’s last-second loss to Tennessee. Oakland has clinched a playoff spot and can wrap up the division title with a victory over Indianapolis and a loss by Kansas City on Sunday night against Denver. The Raiders are rolling at home since a 1-2 start by winning their last four games at the Black Hole, while eclipsing the OVER in each of those victories.

Best Bet: Oakland -4

Buccaneers at Saints (-3, 52 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Tampa Bay
Record: 8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-6-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 70/1

The Buccaneers fell short at Dallas last Sunday night in a 26-20 setback, but Tampa Bay managed to cash as seven-point underdogs to improve to 6-1 ATS away from Raymond James Stadium. Tampa Bay seeks the season sweep of New Orleans on Sunday after holding off the Saints less than two weeks ago, 16-11 as two-point favorites. The Bucs scored only one touchdown in that win, but intercepted Drew Brees three times as Tampa Bay has covered six consecutive games.

New Orleans
Record: 6-8 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Saints rebounded from a pair of poor offensive efforts in losses to Detroit and Tampa Bay by dropping 48 points on Arizona last Sunday. New Orleans held off Arizona, 48-41 as Brees torched the Cardinals’ defense for four touchdown passes after failing to throw a touchdown in the previous two weeks. The Saints haven’t been great in the favorite role this season with a 2-4 ATS record (compared to the 7-1 ATS mark as an underdog), but this is the shortest number New Orleans has laid to Tampa Bay at home since 2012 when the Saints blanked the Bucs, 41-0 as 3 ½-point chalk.

Best Bet: New Orleans -3

Cardinals at Seahawks (-8, 43) – 4:25 PM EST

Arizona
Record: 5-8-1 SU, 4-10 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

Just like the team they lost to in last season’s NFC championship, the Cardinals will not be returning to the postseason. Arizona started the season at 3-3, but have won only twice in the last eight tries, while allowing a season-high 48 points to New Orleans last Sunday. The Cardinals played to a 6-6 tie with the Seahawks in Week 7 as Arizona couldn’t pull out the win in spite of racking up 443 yards of offense that night. Arizona hasn’t been listed as an underdog by more than four points this season, while the Cardinals have won in two of their past three visits to Seattle.

Seattle
Record: 9-4-1 SU, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 6/1

The Seahawks have wrapped up the NFC West title and can grab a first-round bye with wins in their final two games against the Cardinals and 49ers. Seattle bounced back from an embarrassing 38-10 loss at Green Bay in Week 14 to rout the hapless Rams last Thursday, 24-3 as 15-point favorites. The Seahawks look for an 8-0 home mark for the first time since 2012 as Seattle has put together a 5-2 ATS record at CenturyLink Field this season.

Best Bet: Arizona +8

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 16
December 22, 2016

The final two weeks of the NFL season are upon us and teams vying for one of the playoff spots still up for grabs have no room for error.

Week 16 brings plenty of huge division matchups with the stakes ramped up for many, but there are two division games where I believe the most value lies on the entire board.

Best Bet #1: Buffalo (-4)

At 7-7 SU, Buffalo's chances of getting to the postseason are slim at best as they'll need to win out and get plenty of help. But the Bills can only worry about what they can control, and winning this week would actually help on both fronts as Miami is one of the teams Buffalo needs to stumble down the stretch.

Ever since reports came out that HC Rex Ryan would likely be gone at season's end, the Bills have turned up their play, and blowing out Cleveland last week could be just the spark the Bills needed to make one final playoff push.

There is more good news for those looking to tag along with this bet as Buffalo does have the revenge angle in their favor after falling 28-25 to Miami earlier in the year. Throw in either a gimpy Ryan Tannehill or backup Matt Moore at QB, and this Bills defense should so much more fight against those units than we saw from the Jets a week ago.

Furthermore, while it may appear that more pressure sits on the Buffalo side as they need to win to stay alive, it's the Dolphins who have got more pressure on their performance this week in my opinion, knowing that a collapse these final two weeks would be disastrous, spoiling an otherwise strong season, and they've got to deal with the New England Patriots in Week 17.

The home team in this AFC East rivalry is 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've met, and with Buffalo being 4-1 ATS after scoring 30+ points and 5-2 ATS after a win by 14+ points, laying the chalk with the home side here is one of the better plays on the board this week.

Throw in Miami's 2-7 ATS run after scoring 30+ and their 2-12 ATS mark in December games the past few years and the Dolphins will have to come up with a home win next week vs. New England to punch their ticket into the playoffs.

Best Bet #2: Minnesota (+7)

The Minnesota Vikings are a team nobody wants a part of from a betting perspective right now as they've been really quite bad since starting the year 5-0 SU.

Last week's blowout home loss vs. Indy was the icing on the cake for most bettors to avoid this team going forward, especially when they have to go on the road to face one of the hottest teams in the league this week.

There is no denying that the Packers have been on a roll of late and looking to get into a showdown with Detroit for the division crown next week, but last week's narrow win in Chicago still showed the deficiencies this Packers team has – especially stopping the run - and this is too many points to give a desperate Vikings team looking to stay alive themselves.

Look, I get it, Minnesota looked awful a week ago and it's tough to back them in front of the train that is the Packers right now, but did you know that a SU win by Minnesota would all but eliminate Green Bay from the playoff picture? That's not exactly a scenario too many people are commenting on this week given the current form of both sides, but remember no NFL team is ever as good, or as bad as they look after one specific week.

Minnesota already shut down this Packers offense once this year (17-14 win) and although that came back when it was the Vikings who were on a roll, it's not like it couldn't happen again this week.

RB Adrian Peterson – should he play – will be looking to redeem himself after an awful return to the lineup and historically he's had some of his best games in Green Bay in the past. The Packers showed last week that they still have plenty of issues stopping the run and if Minnesota's O-line can hold up strong, AP will be able to find the holes and get some big gains.

The Vikings offense needs to stay on the field with long drives to have a chance this week – to not only score points but keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines – and giving them a touchdown here with the defense we all know they have is ludicrous.

Minnesota absolutely must win this game outright to keep their playoff hopes alive and while they may not get the outright win, this game will come down to the wire like last week's Packers game vs. Chicago did.

With Minnesota on a 7-2 ATS run vs winning foes, 35-16 ATS after a loss by 14+ points, and a 4-1 ATS run after a double-digit home loss, grab the points in this one.

[StarDust Bum]

Help in Houston
December 22, 2016

Tom Savage To Rescue For Texans?

The two biggest news items in the NFL in Week 15 both came out of one of the worst matchups on paper going in: Jacksonville at Houston. That featured two of the lowest-rated and most intercepted quarterbacks in the league this season in the Jaguars' Blake Bortles and Texans' Brock Osweiler. They played to expectations in the game and two jobs were lost because of their performances: those of Jaguars coach Gus Bradley and Osweiler himself.

While you can look for a prop on the next full-time head coach of the downtrodden Jaguars later this week on BetOnline's NFL odds, this will look at Houston's chances going forward behind new starting quarterback Tom Savage.

Houston signed Osweiler this offseason to a four-year, $72 million free-agent deal to leave Denver even though the Texans brass never met with Osweiler personally and he had been uneven in his starts for an injured Peyton Manning in 2015. That contract included $37 million in guaranteed money over the first two years, something the Texans have to regret now.

The Texans were trailing the Jaguars, who entered on an eight-game losing streak, 13-0 in the second quarter when Coach Bill O'Brien pulled Osweiler after he was 6-for-11 for 48 yards and two interceptions in his five drives. Savage, a fourth-round pick in 2014, had attempted just 19 career regular-season passes in his career and not since his rookie year. He spent last season on injured reserve after spraining his shoulder during a preseason game.

But Savage looked very comfortable against the Jaguars in completing 23 of 36 for 260 yards in a 21-20 come-from-behind victory. Not exactly Hall of Fame numbers, but Savage didn't turn the ball over -- Osweiler had 16 picks and three fumbles this year -- and threw for more yards in less than three quarters than Osweiler did in all but two of his games.

On passes thrown 15 yards or more downfield on Sunday, Osweiler was 0-for-2 with two interceptions. Savage was 4-for-8 for 89 yards. Savage also got star receiver DeAndre Hopkins involved. He finished with a season-high 17 targets along with eight catches (second most of season) and 87 yards (also second most).

In a no-brainer move, O'Brien on Monday announced that Savage was his starting quarterback going forward. The coach would have lost the locker room had he gone back to Osweiler. But it's fairly unprecedented for a division leader to make a change this late in the season under center that didn't come due to injury. O'Brien said he chose to name a starter early in the week because he wanted to give Savage the full week to prepare.

O'Brien might be betting his job on this move as the Texans could fire him should they miss the playoffs. He's supposed to be a quarterback guru, but the play at that position has been wildly inconsistent since he was hired from Penn State before the 2014 season.

Houston and Tennessee are tied for the AFC South lead at 8-6. The Texans are opening 2-point favorites at BetOnline for their home game vs. Cincinnati on Christmas Eve night. The Titans are -4.5 in Jacksonville, which will be led by interim coach Doug Marrone the rest of the season.

Houston visits Nashville in Week 17 in a potential winner-take-all game for the division. The Texans are -110 favorites to repeat as South champions at BetOnline with the Titans are +110 and the Indianapolis Colts (7-7) at +1500. Indy needs to win out with Houston losing both its games and Tennessee losing to Jacksonville for the Colts to win the division.

Keep in mind that Houston's NRG Stadium hosts Super Bowl LI and no team has played in a Super Bowl its stadium hosted. The Texans are +3300 to win their first AFC championship.

[StarDust Bum]

'Dogs to Watch - Week 16
December 21, 2016

Last week's underdogs feature brought home some nice profits as three of the five teams suggested (Indianapolis, Carolina, Tennessee) were able to bring home the cash, while Jacksonville and Tampa Bay definitely had their chances to get to the winner's circle as well.

Having said that those five teams would likely go at least 2-3 SU, grabbing a 3-2 SU mark for +$395 (on $100 flat wagers) proved to be a nice little profit and I'll be looking for more of the same in Week 16 from underdogs of +4 or more.

Sportsbook.ag Underdogs That Qualify

Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+250)
New York Jets (+16.5); ML (+1150)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5); ML (+185)
Cleveland Browns (+6.5); ML (+230)
Indianapolis Colts (+4); ML (+160)
Arizona Cardinals (+9); ML (+320)
Baltimore Ravens (+4.5); ML (+185)
Denver Broncos (+4); ML (+170)
Detroit Lions (+7); ML (+270)

It's another big list this week with a few teams that will surely get some support, but as always I'll begin with Cleveland. If the Browns are going to avoid being the second franchise in the modern era to avoid going 0-16 SU, this week is their best shot. Next week they will be in Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team that will still be fighting for a division title and/or playoff seeding and will make sure to get the job done.

This week, Cleveland plays their final home game of the year against a Chargers team that has to fly cross country and is back to being in complete shambles. If you've got the stones to ride with the Browns one more time, Week 16 will be your best opportunity.

Moving on, the Jets have already folded up shop for 2016 and with New England looking to clinch top spot in the AFC and getting the Jets best punch last time around, there is no need to even consider New York going into Foxboro and winning.

Arizona is in a similar boat being up in Seattle and while the Cardinals have had success in Seattle in the past, 2017 can't come soon enough for that franchise.

Teams on this list that are clinging to their slim playoff hopes include the Vikings, Colts, and Broncos and I would not be surprised to see all three put up strong efforts.

Nobody wants any part of backing Minnesota straight up this week after they were beat up and embarrassed on their own field by the Colts on Sunday, but often times it's those teams that you'd want to back in a spot like this.

The Vikings visit Lambeau Field to take on the rolling Packers and will be desperate to show the NFL world that they are much better then what they showed on film a week ago. As the biggest 'dog of the three in this group, +250 ML odds does have significant value if you've got no problem being in a very small minority.

Denver visits Kansas City in a game that could go either way, but with the Broncos offense being one of the worst in the league right now, it's tough to completely trust them in this spot. KC gave away a golden opportunity at a W last week and would love to end Denver's hopes of repeating.

Indy needs to win out and get plenty of help in the AFC South to see postseason action, but they can only worry about what they can control for now.

A matchup with Oakland is one that actually looks good on paper for the Colts, and with the Raiders achieving their main goal of clinching a playoff spot last week, Indy is a live dog in Week 16.

Speaking of that help the Colts need in the AFC South, getting a Jaguars win over Tennessee this week would be ideal. Jacksonville has lost nine in a row though and gave away the game in Houston on Sunday so they are tough to trust.

But the decision to fire head coach Gus Bradley is one that could spark the entire Jags team during the final two weeks, and while helping Indy isn't high on their priority list, spoiling Tennessee's playoff hopes any way they can would be a happy consequence for the Jags.

Baltimore is in Pittsburgh in a game that will decide the AFC North and will likely be the most popular ML underdog bet on this entire list. Those two teams go to war when they meet up and there is no question either side could win. But being the most popular underdog ML bet isn't necessarily a good thing, and it might be best for your bankroll to stay away from this game altogether in terms of ML options.

Detroit faces Dallas on MNF and that contest sets up similar to the Ravens/Steelers game. Both sides are more than capable of winning, both would love a victory to further their cause, but all in all, staying away from this contest is likely the best option.

Of the nine teams that make this week's list, there aren't as many I'm willing to back as a week ago. Close your eyes, plug your nose, and pray with Cleveland (+230) if you wish, but the three I'm seriously considering are Minnesota (+250), Indianapolis (+160), and cough, Jacksonville (+185) again.

Two of these three should be able to come out on the winning side and throw even more wrinkles into an already crowded and confusing playoff picture heading into the final week of the year.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Christmas Tips
December 22, 2016

The NFL has given us a couple of Week 16 Christmas games to be very merry about with four teams all fighting for a playoff berth and the results of Sunday's game will make the postseason picture much clearer.

The Steelers can clinch a division crown with a win against the Ravens in the early game and the Chiefs can clinch a spot in the nightcap against the Broncos.

Let's take at how these two rivalries stack up:

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5, 44)
NFL Network, 4:30 p.m. ET

The Ravens have won four straight over the Steelers, but if Pittsburgh can halt the streak and win Sunday at Heinz Field they'll clinch the AFC North. However, Baltimore controls its own destiny. If they win Sunday and next week at Cincinnati, they'll clinch the division and be the AFC's No. 3 seed in the playoffs.

Prior to Saturday's games, the Ravens were outside looking in as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. They've built up their respect with Las Vegas oddsmakers over the past seven weeks by going 5-2. However, they've lost the past four on the road and are just 1-5 ATS on the road this season which is part of the reason Pittsburgh is as high as a six-point favorite at CG Technology sports books for this one.

The other reason Pittsburgh is favored so high is because they're peaking at the right time and playing to expectations that their high rating had when the season started. After going through a stretch of losing and failing to cover four straight, Pittsburgh has won and covered its last five with the running game, passing game and defense all being dominant at times.

Four of those five games during the win streak have stayed 'under' the total. Pittsburgh's 10-4 'under' mark is tied with two other teams as second-best in the NFL. Sunday's total is set with a a high at 45 and a low at 44.

RECENT MEETINGS

Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the Under is 3-0-1 as well.

TRENDS

-- Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in last seven against NFC North teams.
-- Baltimore is 0-5 ATS in last five road games.
-- Baltimore 'under' is 5-1-1 in last seven Week 16 games.

-- Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in last six against AFC North teams.
-- Pittsburgh in 5-0 ATS in last five games.
-- Pittsburgh 'under' is 19-6-1 in last 26 against NFC North teams.

Denver at Kansas City (-3.5, 37.5)
NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET

All the Chiefs need to clinch a playoff berth is for Baltimore to either tie or lose Sunday's earlier game at Pittsburgh or take care of business on their own with a win or tie at home against the Broncos in the evening.

For the Broncos, they have all kinds of scenarios that could give them a playoff berth by either winning their final two games and finishing 10-6 or splitting them and finishing 9-7. Any way they slice it, they're still outside looking in to the playoff equation and need lots of help.

"The only scenario I know is that if we don't win, we get no chance," said Broncos head coach Gary Kubiak.

Those chances look bleak based on what we've all seen out of the Broncos lately. After starting 4-0 they've lost six of their last 10, including three of their last four. However, they have won the last four visits to Arrowhead Stadium.

The Denver defense has been steady, ranked No. 2 overall (310 YPG allowed) while also tied for No. 1 with 40 sacks. But the run defense has been a source for repeated success by opponents, ranked No. 29 allowing 127 yards per game. The sluggish offense has shown it can't run the ball (91 YPG) and can't score getting just 13 points combined in its it last two games. The passing game will also suffer this week as the top two tight-ends are likely to be 'out' with concussions.

The top reason for Denver optimism coming into this game is "Mother Nature" which could turn this into a really ugly game that bodes well for Denver's defense to make some big plays. Thunderstorms are expected with winds as high as 24 miles per hour, which means passing will be very difficult and turnovers with slippery balls should be high for both teams.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Chiefs may have already clinched a playoff spot with a Baltimore loss which could lend belief that Kansas City might not play as hard, but they're still in the hunt for the AFC West crown and if Oakland loses to the Colts Saturday a Kansas City win would put them in first-place by virtue of sweeping the Raiders this season. So don't expect major line adjustment based on other teams results heading into the game. However, some serious line movement has already happened. The -- Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Kansas City -6 on Sunday night and by Monday afternoon it had been bet down to -4 and then -3.5 on Tuesday. The total has dropped from 38 down to 37.5 as of Thursday afternoon.

RECENT MEETINGS

The Broncos have covered six of its past seven at Kansas City and the road team has covered the last six meetings. Kansas City has won the past two meetings, both at Denver.

TRENDS

-- Denver is 1-4 ATS in last five against winning teams.
-- Denver is 1-5 ATS in last six against AFC West teams.
-- Denver 'under' is 5-1 in last six road games.

-- Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in last 10 home games.
-- Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in last five following an ATS loss.
-- Kansas City 'under' is 38-15 in last 53 home games.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL THURS- MONDAY RECORD AND BEST BETS:

12/01/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
12/04/2016 15-10-1 60.00% +2000
12/05/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/08/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/11/2016 17-10-0 62.96% +3000
12/12/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/15/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
12/18/2016 14-12-0 53.85% +400
12/22/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
12/19/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 121-139-8 46.54% -15950

O/U Picks 125-136-6 47.89% -12300

Triple Plays:..... 70 - 73 - 4

BIG PLAYS FOR OCT/NOV 5 - 8 - 1
BIG PLAYS FOR DEC. 9 - 9

12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 1 KANSAS CITY + 4' 29/ N. ORLEANS 28
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL SNOW FAVORITE OF THE DAY G. BAY - 6 21 / HOUSTON 13
12/04- 1 - 0 NFL TOTAL OF THE DAY. UN 44 SAN FRAN/ CHICAGO 26 - 6
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 2 BUFFALO + 3 24 / OAKLAND 38
12/04 - 1 - 0 NFL DOG # 3 TAMPA + 3' 28 / SAN DIEGO 21
12/04 - 0 - 1 NFL DOG # 4 WASHINGTON + 2' 23 / ARIZONA 31
12/08- 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT GOY K.C. - 3 / OAKLAND 21 - 13
12/08 - 1 - 0 NFL THUR. NIGHT TOTAL OF THE NIGHT KC / OAKLAND UN 46 21 - 13

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 16
December 23, 2016

Wise guys have been getting lumps of coal as a return on their investment betting the Browns all season, including failing to cash the last eight weeks, but they're all-in on Christmas Eve riding Cleveland as a home underdog against San Diego in an attempt to get some of the hundreds of thousands of dollars lost on the Browns over the first 15 weeks.

"We've taken lots of Browns action taking us from +6.5, +6, +5.5 (skipped over +5) and +4.5," said South Point sports book director Chris Andrews who has the game -4 as of Friday afternoon. "We have nothing on the Chargers."

Beating the wise-guys who bet the Browns (0-14 straight up, 2-12 against the spread) has been one of the positives for sports books in an otherwise ugly season. But the sharps might be correct with their timing this week as San Diego comes in having lost and failed to cover its last three and it's expected to be without injured running back Melvin Gordon.

The sharps are also heavy on Atlanta at Carolina this week and so are is the average Joe with their parlays. William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada have taken 96 percent of its cash on the game and 88 percent of the tickets written siding with the Falcons who can clinch the NFC South with a win and a loss or tie by the Buccaneers. It's the most one-sided bet game of the week.

"We've taken a lot on Atlanta," said Andrews. "Limit wagers and -2, a couple at -2,5 and also at -3."

The South Point is still holding tight at -3 despite a limit wager there because they don't want to straddle the most key number in the NFL. It'll take at least two more limit bets for them to move to -3.5. A few other books have the Falcons -3 (-120).

Andrews said he's also taken sharp plays on New Orleans (-3.5) at home against Tampa Bay and Chicago (+3) at home against Washington. The Buccaneers have covered the number in their last six games which began with a 36-10 home win against the Bears. Coincidentally, Chicago has covered its last five games since that loss to the Bucs.

Houston (-1) can clinch an AFC Title with a home win against Cincinnation Saturday night if Tennessee (-5) lose at Jacksonville earlier in the day. The Texans will make their playoff push behind new starting quarterback Tom Savage who might be considered an upgrade over Brock Osweiler.

"I've got Savage rated a little higher than Osweiler so I upgraded the number 1 point," said Andrews. "He was a hot player coming out of Pitt (fourth-round of 2014 NFL draft). A lot of people liked him and he's finally getting his chance to show what he can do."

The Ravens have won four straight against the Steelers but Pittsburgh rides a five-game winning streak (5-0 ATS) in this matchup and is listed as a 5.5-point home favorite on Christmas Day.

"We've got play on both sides and I'm kind of surprised because I thought I'd be at -6 already," Andrews said.

The Christmas nightcap is another divisional rivalry with Denver visiting Kansas City and the number has been falling rapidly since posted on Monday.

"We've got a ton of money on Denver already," said Andrews, who has dropped the Chiefs from -5 to -3. "The Chiefs really blew one last week, so I look for them to come up with a good performance and the Broncos haven't shown anything offensively the last two weeks."

The total is sitting at 37.5 at most books with rain expected and winds up to 23 mph. Beyond the weather causing such a low total, the Chiefs have stayed 'under' the total in 10 of 14 games and the Broncos have scored 13 combined points in their last two games. Denver has won the last five meetings at Arrowhead.

Monday night has Detroit visiting Dallas looking to clinch the NFC North with a win, which would be Matt Stafford's first division title in his seven-year career. Dallas has already clinched home field and the question is whether or not the starters will play the entire game.

"We got lots of play on Dallas -7 early in the week. Even with the Cowboys clinching with the Giants loss, I don't buy into the fact that this team needs the game or that team doesn't; it's overrated. I waited to take a strong bet at +7 until dropping to 6.5."

The last instance of the Cowboys clinching their playoff spot where a regular season game meant nothing was in 2014 and the starters played for most of the 44-17 win over the Redskins -- Dallas played the Lions the next week in the Wild Card round.

No word on what head coach Jason Garrett will do with his starters on Monday, but even if he does choose rest over rust, he's got a hungry Tony Romo as a nice back-up itching to play if he decides to rest Dak Prescott.

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Total Talk - Week 16
December 23, 2016

For the second consecutive week, the ‘under’ posted a 9-7 record despite a lot of teams moving the chains. Unfortunately for ‘over’ bettors, there were 69 made field goals in Week 15 compared to 71 touchdowns and those four-point swings can often hurt or help outcomes. Through 15 weeks of the season, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge 112-111-1.

Divisional Trends to Watch

Eleven of the 16 games scheduled this week are divisional matchups and all but one of them have playoff implications.

Miami at Buffalo: The Bills (11-3) and Dolphins (10-4) have been sneaky-good ‘over’ bets this season yet oddsmakers continue to post low totals on this pair (41 ½). Is there a reason for this production? The answer is yes and the proof lies with big plays (great stat) from both clubs. The Bills have seen the 'over' go 7-0 at Ralph Wilson Stadium this season behind an offense averaging 30.7 points per game at home and a suspect defense (24.7 PPG). Miami has scored 24 and 34 in its two divisional matchups on the road and the 'over' cashed in each game. The ‘over’ is on a 3-0 run in this series but the last two games played at Buffalo in December went ‘under’ the number. Keep an eye on the latest weather reports for this matchup with snow possibly looming.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans: The Buccaneers stifled the Saints 16-11 in Week 14 at home and the ‘under’ (51 ½) was never in doubt. It was the fourth straight ‘under’ in this series yet the rematch is staring at a higher total (52 ½). The Saints are coming off a 48-point performance and are averaging 31 PPG at home plus the scoring defense (30.3 PPG) at the Superdome is ranked last in the league.

Atlanta at Carolina: The Falcons diced up the Panthers 48-33 at home on Oct. 2 and the ‘over’ (48 ½) cashed easily. Even though that game went to the high side, the ‘under’ connected in the six previous encounters. The Atlanta-Over combination has cashed eight times this season, three times in their last four games. I’d be weary to press that wager here knowing Carolina’s defense (20.3 PPG) has played better at home and it’s still technically alive for the playoffs.

Minnesota at Green Bay: I thought this total (43) would be a tad lower but the majority of bettors always lean to Packers and ‘over’ at Lambeau Field. Unfortunately for the masses, that combo has hit once this season for Green Bay at home. Minnesota has leaned to the ‘under’ (9-5) all season and a couple of those ‘over’ tickets received help from its defense. The ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run in this series.

N.Y. Jets at New England: The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between the pair but I wouldn’t put much stock into those results. The Jets are a mess offensively with whomever at QB and New England is already in playoff-mode. I expect an ugly game with the Patriots trying to get off the field with a win and no injuries.

Tennessee at Jacksonville: The Titans blasted the Jaguars 36-22 in a Thursday night matchup at home in Week 8 and they also earned a 42-39 shootout victory in Nashville over Jacksonville last season. We mention those results because Tennessee has only managed to score 13 and 13 points in its last two trips to Jacksonville. The Jaguars will have a new coach (Doug Marrone) on the sidelines and it’s always tough to handicap teams who may or may not be playing for pride.

San Francisco at Los Angeles: Low total (39) for this meaningless matchup and it’s warranted with neither team showing consistent production on offense. The ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in the last four games in this series, which includes the Week 1 result when the 49ers blanked the Rams 28-0 at home.

Arizona at Seattle: The ‘under’ is on a 4-2 run in this series and we’re looking at a low total (43) this week but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fireworks. The Cardinals are eliminated from the playoffs but they’re on a 5-0 ‘over’ run and all six of their road games have gone to the high side. Seattle has been much more potent offensively at home (28 PPG) and it needs to win this game to push closer to No. 2 seed in the NFC.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (Sunday): Tough total (44) to handicap because Pittsburgh’s been a clear-cut ‘under’ team (10-4) this season but it still has the ability to explode offensively. Baltimore has also leaned to the ‘under’ (8-6) yet the offense has found its rhythm the last three weeks (29.3 PPG) and that’s resulted in three ‘over’ tickets. The ‘under’ is on a 3-0 run in this series, which includes their first meeting this season when Baltimore dropped Pittsburgh 21-14 at home.

Denver at Kansas City: (See Below)

Coast to Coast

It wasn’t easy last week but head coach Dan Quinn decided to kick a late field goal in Atlanta’s 41-13 home win San Francisco and the ‘over’ (51 ½) connected for bettors last Sunday. Including that result, the ‘over’ has gone 15-4 (79%) in games where a team from the West Coast has played in the Eastern Time Zone. Dating back to last season, the overall numbers are 26-9 (74%) to the ‘over’ in these games.

The last regular season game featuring a West Coast team playing in the Eastern Time Zone takes place on Saturday when San Diego visits Cleveland. The total on this game opened at 44 and you can make an argument for either decision.

The Browns (29.1 PPG) and Chargers (26.1 PPG) are both ranked in the bottom four in scoring defense but neither team has shown much pop offensively lately. Cleveland is averaging 10.3 PPG in its last six while San Diego’s once potent attack has been held to 21 or less in four straight games. The Chargers have already made two trips to the East Coast this season and the total has gone 1-1 in those games with combined scores of 63 and 44 points posted. Weather expected to play a factor in this matchup as well.

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ run in the primetime matchups continued in Week 15 with a 3-1 mark, the lone ‘over’ occurring in Miami’s 34-13 win over the Jets last Saturday. The ‘under’ was on a 5-2 run the last two weeks but Philadelphia and New York did go ‘over’ this past Thursday, which snapped a six-game run to the low side on the midweek game. Through 15 weeks and one game, the ‘under’ holds a 26-21-1 mark in night games this season.

We have three games slated under the lights for Week 16, with the action starting on Saturday.

Cincinnati at Houston (Saturday): Despite playing in different divisions, these teams have met the last five seasons and the ‘under’ has gone 3-2. The average combined scored during this span was 32.6. Houston is going with Tom Savage at quarterback and he looked decent last week (23-of-36, 260 yards) against a decent Jaguars defense. The Bengals offense has been held to 20 points or less in five of seven road games and hard to see them improving that number against a stout Texans defense that has been much better at home (17.6 PPG).

Denver at Kansas City (Sunday): These teams combined for 57 points in Week 12 as Kansas City nipped Denver 30-27 in overtime on the road. This was a 16-10 game going into the fourth quarter and looked like an easy ‘under’ winner. For the rematch, the books have sent out a super-low number of 37 ½ points and the number is justified. The Chiefs have seen the ‘under’ go 10-4 this season, 6-1 at Arrowhead Stadium while Denver enters this contest on a 3-0 ‘under’ run behind an offense (11 PPG) that has imploded the last three weeks. This is another contest that will likely be affected with inclement weather.

Detroit at Dallas (Monday): Knowing the Cowboys clinched the No. 1 overall seed on Thursday due to the Giants losing makes this game very tough to handicap. Will Dallas pull up in this spot and go through the motions? Tough to say but we do know the Lions enter this game on an 8-0 run to the ‘under’ and they have a very good defense. Dallas has also been a solid ‘under’ bet (9-5) this season and its last three games have all leaned to the low side. This total opened 42 ½ and sits at 44 ½ as of Friday but that could quickly change based on what Cowboys team we’ll see this Monday.

Fearless Predictions

I expected the elements to play a factor in the Green Bay-Chicago game and that didn’t work out so well. That matchup alone put us in the red ($230) and pushed the deficit back to the five-unit ($490) mark on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Holidays to you and yours!

Best Over: Tampa Bay-New Orleans 52 ½

Best Under: Tennessee-Jacksonville 44

Best Team Total: Over 25 Washington

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Tampa Bay-New Orleans 43 ½
Over Arizona-Seattle 34
Under Denver-Kansas City 46 ½

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AFC West heats up SNF
December 23, 2016

Week 16 SNF Betting Preview
Denver vs. Kansas City

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Kansas City (-3.5); Total set at 37.5

The two AFC West teams meeting up on SNF are looking to bounce back after disappointing losses, but it's the Denver Broncos who are in the more dire situation as they are on the outside looking in regarding the playoff picture and need to win out and get some help along the way.

Not returning to the playoffs would be a huge disappointment for the defending Super Bowl Champions, but it wouldn't be unexpected as life after Peyton Manning was going to come with some growing pains on the offensive side of the ball.

Denver's offense has been atrocious down the stretch and their poor play even caused a locker room spat within the team between offense and defense after last week's loss. Can QB Trevor Siemian and company turn it around it time for Denver to save their season?

The Broncos are in the bottom third of the league in nearly every offensive category this year and if it wasn't for their top tier defense, we'd be talking about this team being 4-10 SU rather than 8-6 SU. The old adage of “defense winning championships” may hold plenty of truth, but you've got to get to the playoffs first before a championship can be won and the Broncos backs are up against the wall in that regard.

The good news for Denver is that their best offensive performance of the past six weeks came against this Kansas City Chiefs team, as they put up 27 points in an OT loss.

It was the Denver defense that let the squad down that day as they allowed KC to tie it up with a TD and 2-pt conversion with under 10 seconds remaining, and one can't help but wonder if that result went the other way how the fortunes of these two franchises would have changed the scenarios for this week.

Based on the locker room spat between the two sides of the ball a week ago, chances are the Broncos defense won't be letting the team down again and will do everything in their power to hold the Chiefs down this week and possibly even put up some points.

KC blew their own late late last week in losing 19-17 at home vs. Tennessee and now have to win at least one of their final two games to clinch a playoff berth.

The Chiefs are still in the conversation for a division crown and a Top-2 seed in the AFC, but like Denver, they'll need more production from their offense the rest of the way if a Super Bowl appearance is in the cards.

This is not a good week to expect much improvement from KC's offense as the Broncos defense is stout, so look for KC's own defense to match what Denver does and continue to force turnovers as they've done all season.

So what does this all add up too from a betting perspective?

Well, for one, barring another OT game, don't expect anywhere near 57 points scored again between these two as there is too much on the line for both sides not to have both rely on their strength (defensive football) to get the job done.

I've mentioned on other division rematch games this year that it's typically a good idea to flip the results in the return meeting (if game 1 went over, take under etc) and this SNF game fits the bill.

There is no way anyone out there can trust the Broncos offense to put up more than 17 points these days and Kansas City will have a hard time reaching that number themselves vs a Broncos defense that hasn't given up that many points in three straight weeks.

Denver is 1-5 O/U in their last six away from home and have gone a perfect 0-5 O/U when failing to cover the spread their last time out.

Kansas City is on a 2-8 O/U run overall and is 1-5 O/U themselves off a loss.

Throw in a 0-4 O/U mark for the Chiefs at home vs a winning team, a 15-38 O/U run at home overall, and a 3-7-2 O/U run in the last 12 meetings between these two and points will be at a premium in this contest.

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Lions, 'Boys meet on MNF
December 23, 2016

Week 16 MNF Betting Preview
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Dallas (-6); Total set at 44

Thanks to the Giants loss on TNF in Philadelphia, the Dallas Cowboys have clinched the NFC East division and the #1 seed in the conference.

That means it's all about health preservation right now for Dallas, although staying in rhythm and not killing much of the momentum they've built during a tremendous season would be nice as well.

That outcome also throws a wrench into handicapping this contest as it's tough to expect the best effort from the Cowboys here as winning isn't their #1 priority anymore.

The same can't be said about the Detroit Lions as almost everyone who is following the NFL expects the Detroit/Green Bay game in Week 17 to be for a division championship.

That brings up a lot more issues dealing with everyone assuming the Packers will dominate the Vikings this week, but should Green Bay lose and Detroit win this week, that Week 17 showdown won't mean anything for the Lions who will have clinched the division already.

So with nothing to play for on one side (Dallas) and seemingly everything to play for on the other (Detroit), seeing a point spread this high seems a little absurd.

Not surprisingly, after the Giants loss on TNF, money started to flood in on the Lions ATS, pushing this line down from +7 and +7.5 in some cases down to it's current number.

Those bettors are looking to get ahead of the curve as most NFL action comes in on gameday, so don't be surprised if you see this spread drop even further before Monday Night. It's tough not to agree with that mindset, so if you had already leaned on Detroit before TNF, jumping on board with the Lions sooner than later is optimal.

That's precisely what I'm doing as I'm sure the Cowboys have had discussions on Friday about the best ways to keep everyone sharp and healthy without a meaningful game for three weeks and we could even see a Tony Romo sighting this week.

Rookie QB Dak Prescott doesn't have the career experience to warrant sitting from the get-go, but giving him a bit of a break at some point to mitigate those dreaded “rookie wall” effects can't hurt, and letting Romo face live bullets before possibly needing him in the postseason can't hurt.

Romo is not your typical backup QB that could be put in this position though and that's likely why we haven't seen this point spread drop a little lower yet.

Detroit lost to those same Giants a week ago, halting a five-game winning streak for the Lions and there is no question they've got one eye peaking over at their Week 17 contest vs the Packers.

But if Detroit does want to not only get into the playoffs, but do some damage while there, the offense is going to have to start clicking again and facing a Dallas defense that has little motivation and could be sitting guys is a good place for Matthew Stafford and company to start getting back on track.

Yet, lose this game and no matter what that Packers game is for a division crown, but win this week, and there is (theoretically) a 50/50 chance the Lions could rest some of their own players next week.

At the very least, expect Detroit to keep this game very close (as most of their games have been this year) in what could end up being a contest that sees a few more points then expected.

Detroit is 5-1 ATS in thier last six appearances on MNF, and have a 24-9 ATS run going after scoring less than 15 points last time out.

Add in the fact that the Lions are also 15-7-1 O/U after putting up less than 15, and five of the past six meetings with Dallas have gone 'over' and there are two very attractive plays on this contest.

Best Bet: Take Detroit (+6) and Over 44.5

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NFL Underdogs: Week 16 pointspread picks and predictions

By ANDREW CALEY

Andrew Caley wishes you a happy holidays and hopes you can stuff your stockings with a little extra cash with his Christmas edition of underdog picks.

I love this time of year.

The smell of pine fills the house, Christmas carols on the stereo and family all under one roof. In my household in particular, we have traditions of lobster on Christmas Eve, Christmas morning mimosas, classic Simpons marathons (classic being Seasons 3 to 8, of course) and plenty of rum and egg nog.

It’s just the perfect combination for me and this year, it gets even better, because not only do we have NBA on Christmas Day, we get football on Christmas Eve and December 25. That sounds like a perfect Christmas to me.

Before we dive into a Christmas edition of “Dogs”, I just want to say Merry Christmas and happy holidays to you and yours. It’s a very meaningful time of year to me and my family and I hope all those reading this have the very best of holidays.

Let’s see if we can make those holidays even better by giving you the gift of underdog winners this Christmas, starting with an important NFC South matchup on Christmas Eve when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the New Orleans Saints.

The surprising Buccaneers’ five-game win streak may have come to end last week at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys, but Tampa Bay gave Big D all it could handle and was able to cover the seven points. In fact, the Bucs have been a great early Christmas gift for bettors, covering the spread in six consecutive games.

Additionally, the Bucs are an impressive 6-1 ATS on the road this season, while the Saints are just 3-4 ATS at home.

These teams met just met two weeks ago with the Bucs winning a slobber knocker, 16-11 with Tampa Bay as 2-point home chalk. In that meeting, Tampa Bay’s defense did what it does best - take away the football. They intercepted Drew Brees three times in that matchup and are third in the NFL in takeaways with 26.

This Bucs team is just fun to watch and seems to have a lot of fight in it.

Pick: Buccaneers +3


Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears (+3)

The weather outside is frightful, and the Chicago Bears love it.

As noted by Covers managing editor Jason Logan last week, the Bears enjoy playing in freezing temperatures and just at home in general this season.
The Bears may look bad on the surface, but they have actually been a boon for bettors at Soldier Field, going 5-2 ATS. And you may not realize this, but they have covered the spread in five consecutive games.

What really makes me likes Chicago this week is the matchup. The Bears actually have an underrated defense, ranking ninth in total yards allowed. But more importantly for this matchup against pass-happy Washington is their sixth ranked passing defense that allows just 219.9 yards per game.

So this falls under the category of a good defense getting points at home.

Pick: Bears +3


Baltimore Ravens (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Ravens are a bad bet on the road this season. I know. But, you throw everything out the window when the Ravens and Steelers face off. Especially when first place in the AFC North is on the line.

Baltimore won the first meeting this season 21-14 back in Week 9 as a 3.5-point home underdog, when it held Ben Roethlisberger to 23-of-45 passing for 264 yards, one touchdown and one interception. So a win by Baltimore would give it the tiebreaker.

Baltimore also has a Top-5 defense this season when it comes to total yards. This one has the feeling of a back-and-forth Christmas Day slugfest and 5.5 points seems like too many with so much on the line.

Pick: Ravens +5.5


Detroit Lions (+7) at Dallas Cowboys

With the New Giants loss to the Philadelphia Eagles Thursday the Cowboys clinched the NFC East and the No. 1 overall seed in the conference, giving them little to play for these final two weeks.

We don’t yet know how the Cowboys will handle this situation in terms of resting players (will Tony Romo see some snaps?), but you’d have to think they’re going to be cautious if nothing else. Either way, I kind of liked the Lions here before Thursday night’s developments.

Detroit has to play hungry with the Packers breathing down their necks in the NFC North and I think the Lions bounce back after last week’s tough loss to the Giants.

As long as Matthew Stafford’s middle finger on his throwing hand can hold up, this is a competitive game. Stafford was 24 of 39 for 273 yards and an interception in the loss to the Giants and is a week healthier.

Stocking Stuffer Pick: Lions +7


Last Week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 24-20-1 ATS

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Essential Week 16 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Christmas Eve

The Seahawks can clinch a first round bye with a win on Christmas Eve over the division rival Cardinals. Seatlle is currently favored by a touchdown.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-4, 42)

* Jay Ajayi surpassed the 200-yard plateau for the second straight week when he erupted for 214 yards and a touchdown in the last meeting with Buffalo. The second-year running back once again recorded a triple-digit yard performance after the team's bye, but has been held under 79 in each of his last six outings with only one trip into the end zone to boot. Kenny Stills reeled in his seventh touchdown from 20-plus yards out last week when he snared a 52-yard catch versus the Jets and also found the end zone in his last meeting with the Bills.

* While McCoy being named as a Pro Bowl selection for the fifth time in his career is hardly considered breaking news, linebacker Lorenzo Alexander has opened eyes with his stellar play this season. The 33-year-old notched his second such honor on Tuesday after his team-leading 11.5 sacks have him tied for third-best in the NFL. Miami native Tyrod Taylor completed over 70 percent of his passes last week versus Cleveland, but was just 14 of 28 (season-low 50 percent) for 221 yards in the first meeting with the Dolphins.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened this AFC East battle as 3.5-point home favorites and that line has inched up to 4 late in the week. The total opened at 43 and was bet down as low as 41 before rebounding to 42. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games in December.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
* Bills are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 7-0 in Bills last 7 home games.
* Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Buffalo.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3, 51.5)

* Atlanta’s offense has continued to put points on the board even without star receiver Julio Jones, who has missed the last two games with a sprained toe but will play Saturday. Matt Ryan, who rolled up 503 passing yards and four touchdowns in the Week 4 win, is putting up MVP-like numbers and spreading the ball around, as 11 different players have caught scoring passes. Atlanta has struggled to stop the pass but has been able to come up with big plays and force turnovers with a defense led by linebacker Vic Beasley, who leads the league with 14 1/2 sacks and six forced fumbles.

* Carolina’s defense has been a liability for most of the season and has been especially bad against the pass, but the team has forced eight turnovers in consecutive wins. The offense also came to life in last week’s 26-15 triumph at Washington, rolling up 438 total yards – the Panthers’ highest total since Week 2. Cam Newton is coming off one of his best passing performances of the year as he threw for 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Redskins, while Jonathan Stewart rushed for a season-high 132 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened this NFC South battle as 2-point road favorites and that line was bet up to field goal. The total opened at 51.5 and hasn’t moved off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
* Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC South.
* Over is 12-2 in Falcons last 14 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Home team is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
* Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Carolina.

Washington at Chicago Bears (+3, 47)

* Kirk Cousins (NFL second-best 4,360 passing yards) is looking to rebound from a two-turnover performance when he faces Chicago, against which he threw for 300 yards and a touchdown in Washington's 24-21 victory last season. Tight end Jordan Reed reeled in nine receptions for 120 yards and a score in that contest, but has been slowed by both an ailing left shoulder (two catches, 16 yards in last two games) and a hot temper - with the latter putting him on ice as he was ejected from Monday's game after throwing a punch. "He's such a factor in the passing game that even if he's banged up a little bit I think there's some things that he can do in the passing game that can help us," coach Jay Gruden said. Running back Robert Kelley has picked up the slack with six touchdowns in his last seven games, tying him with Chicago's Jordan Howard for the second-most by an NFL rookie this season.

* Howard amassed at least 99 yards from scrimmage in his seventh straight game on Sunday, recording his fifth touchdown in that stretch while tying a season high with four receptions in a 30-27 loss to the Packers. Quarterback Matt Barkley continued his strong audition for the likely backup position next season, tossing a career-high 362 yards with two touchdown passes - including one to Alshon Jeffery. The wideout returned from serving a four-game suspension and stepped up in the fourth quarter to cap a six-catch, 89-yard performance with a touchdown, but will likely be shadowed by cornerback Josh Norman on Saturday.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened the week as 3-point home dogs and that line was quickly bet up to 3.5, where it has held since Tuesday. The total opened at 45 and has been climbing all week to 47. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 12-2 in Redskins last 14 vs. NFC.
* Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Chicago.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+5, 43.5)

* One of the brightest spots in an otherwise disappointing season has been Philip Rivers, who ranks sixth in the league in passing yards (3,795) and fourth in touchdown tosses (29). All has not been rosy for the veteran quarterback, however, as he has thrown a league-worst 18 interceptions and committed eight fumbles. Cornerback Casey Hayward, who was the only member of the team selected for the Pro Bowl, leads the NFL with seven interceptions.

* While the team is looking to avoid making history for the wrong reason, Joe Thomas landed in the franchise's record book by being selected to appear in the Pro Bowl for the 10th time. The veteran tackle, who has earned the honor every year since joining the league in 2007, passed Jim Brown and Lou Groza (nine apiece) for the most selections in Browns history and joined Merlin Olsen (14), Mel Renfro (10), Barry Sanders (10) and Lawrence Taylor (10) as the only NFL players to make the Pro Bowl in each of their first 10 seasons. Terrelle Pryor, who has made 66 catches for 877 yards and four TDs in his first season as a receiver, is expected to play versus San Diego despite having torn ligaments in his finger.

LINE HISTORY: The winless Browns opened as 6-point pups at home and that number has been bet down a full point to 5. The total opened at 44 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Browns are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Browns are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Chargers last 16 games in December.
* Under is 13-3 in Browns last 16 games in Week 16.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5, 43)

* Running back Adrian Peterson returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 2, but he saw sparse action (six carries, 22 yards) after Minnesota fell into a 27-point hole at halftime against Indianapolis. Peterson did not practice Wednesday due to knee/groin injuries and was unsure if he will be ready to play against Green Bay, saying he's taking things "day by day." Wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who has been limited to five receptions the past two weeks after hauling in 40 catches in the previous four games, also missed Wednesday's practice with an ailing hip. Quarterback Sam Bradford has more than one TD pass in only three of 13 games, but one was against Green Bay in his season debut. Minnesota's defense gave up 411 yards and allowed the Colts to hold the ball for 37 minutes.

* Green Bay's chances of making the playoffs appeared to be a pipe dream after surrendering 153 points during a four-game losing streak to fall to 4-6. Among the reasons for the defense's turnaround is the play of safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who intercepted a pair of passes in Sunday's 30-27 victory at Chicago to earn NFL Defensive Player of the Week honors. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has 10 touchdown passes and zero interceptions in the last five games, practiced fully Wednesday after sitting out all last week due to a calf injury. Converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery has provided a spark for a dormant ground game, rushing for 162 yards and two touchdowns on only 16 carries while adding four catches for 57 yards last week.

LINE HISTORY: The surging Packers opened the week as touchdown favorites at home over their struggling division rival and that line briefly drop half a point to 6.5 before returning to 7-points. The total opened at 43.5 and slipped down to 43 before returning to 43.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 16.
* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
* Under is 8-0 in Vikings last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 15-3 in Vikings last 18 vs. NFC North.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5, 43.5)

* DeMarco Murray ranks second in the NFL with 1,224 yards rushing for the league's third-ranked ground attack, which got a boost from rookie Derrick Henry, who rushed for 58 yards on nine carries with two touchdowns last week. Mariota has been solid much of the season, throwing for 3,327 yards with 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions, but he's failed to throw a scoring pass in two straight games. Defensively, the Titans are battling some serious injuries as cornerback Jason McCourty suffered a chest contusion last week, safety Da'Norris Searcy sustained a concussion and defensive end Karl Klug was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon.

* Marrone felt it necessary to announce that Blake Bortles, who was 12-for-28 for 92 yards with an interception last week, will continue as the team's starting quarterback but, like Bradley, his days at Jacksonville may be numbered. Bortles is second in the league with 16 interceptions and his poor play is one of the reasons the Jaguars are down from 14th to 27th in points per game from last season to this year. The Jaguars also rank 24th in the NFL in rushing, led by T.J. Yeldon with 460 yards and one score and Chris Ivory 394 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY: The Titans opened the week as 4.5-point road favorites and that’s where the number currently sits. The total opened at 43.5 and like the line hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
* Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Over is 8-1-1 in Titans last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 6-0 in Jaguars last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Jacksonville.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-16.5, 44)

* New York has gone five straight games without scoring more than 17 points in regulation and is down to third-string quarterback Bryce Petty, who practiced fully Wednesday after absorbing a huge hit in last week's 34-13 drubbing by Miami. Bilal Powell is expected to get the bulk of the playing time at running back in place of an ailing Matt Forte, who suffered a torn meniscus in his knee in Week 14 and sat out practice Wednesday while dealing with a nerve problem in his shoulder. Undrafted wide receiver Robby Anderson has emerged as a favorite target of Petty with 14 catches and a pair of touchdowns on 29 targets over the past three games. The defense has provided minimal impact with the second-fewest interceptions (seven) and sacks (23) in the NFL.

* Quarterback Tom Brady downplayed a thigh injury that limited him in practice Wednesday, but New England is not downplaying the back-to-back losses to the Jets and Miami last season that cost the team home-field advantage. “Huge sense of urgency,” safety Devin McCourty said Wednesday. “It’s kind of like we were in the same position last year, same opponents last two weeks of the season. Obviously, the same goals." Brady was held to a season-low 188 yards passing and failed to throw a scoring pass for only the second time this season, but Dion Lewis supplied 95 yards rushing on 18 carries. New England is permitting a league-low 16.6 points per game and ranks fourth in the league against the run with an average of 87.9 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened this AFC East matchup as massive 16.5-point home favorites and that’s where they currently sit. The total opened at 43.5 and has yet to move off of that number as well. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
* Under is 5-1-1 in Jets last 7 games following a straight up loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Jets are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (-3.5, 53)

* Frank Gore is having another strong season as he is 109 rushing yards away from reaching 1,000 for the ninth time in his 12-year career and 58 scrimmage yards shy of passing Curtis Martin, Emmitt Smith and Barry Sanders to become the first player in NFL history with at least 1,200 in 11 consecutive seasons. The 33-year-old product of Miami also needs 201 scrimmage yards to overtake Thurman Thomas (16,532) for ninth place on the all-time list. T.Y. Hilton, who along with punter Pat McAfee was selected to the Pro Bowl, enters Week 16 five receiving yards behind Atlanta's Julio Jones (1,253) for the league lead.

* Oakland had a league-high seven players selected for the Pro Bowl, with five of them chosen to start the contest. One of those is Amari Cooper, who - along with fellow receiver Michael Crabtree (finger) - was limited in Wednesday's practice due to a shoulder issue. Guard Kelechi Osemele, who was one of the team's three offensive linemen selected as starters, did not participate in practice on Wednesday due to an ankle injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Raiders opened the week as 4-point home favorites and dropped half-point early in the week and that number has held firm the remainder of the week. The total opened at 53 and hasn’t moved all week. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
* Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 games in Week 16.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3, 52)

* Tampa Bay is closing in on its first playoff berth since 2007 thanks to the growth of quarterback Jameis Winston and an opportunistic defense. Winston and Mike Evans (84 receptions, 1,159 yards, 10 touchdowns) have developed into a dynamic combination, and the former has found a new red-zone target in Cameron Brate, who is tied for the NFL lead among tight ends with seven TD catches. The Buccaneers have had a tough time stopping the run, but they have forced 26 turnovers overall – third-most in the league – and recorded at least one takeaway in 10 straight games.

* New Orleans has the league’s most productive offense behind veteran quarterback Drew Brees, who leads the NFL in passing yards (4,559) and touchdowns (34) after guiding the team to a 48-41 shootout win at Arizona last week. The Saints have struggled on the other side of the ball, ranking 30th in scoring defense and 26th in total defense. The defensive unit has improved in the second half of the season, however, holding three of its last five opponents under 300 total yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened this NFC South matchup as field goal favorites and that number held until Friday, but since then has been bet up to 3.5. The total opened at 52.5 and currently sits at 52. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Buccaneers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games.
* Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Under is 7-0 in Saints last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 43)

* The bright spot in an otherwise down campaign for Arizona is running back David Johnson, who set an NFL record with 14 straight games of 100 or more yards from scrimmage to start the season and was named to his first Pro Bowl this week. Johnson, who leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,938 and has scored 17 touchdowns so far, piled up 113 rushing yards and caught eight passes for 58 yards in the first meeting with Seattle. "There is nobody better than he is," wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, who will make his 10th Pro Bowl appearance, told reporters of Johnson. "He's playing at the highest level. He does it in the run game, the pass game, great pass protector as well. The guy can do it all. It's a real joy and a pleasure to be able to watch a guy do something like that and be his teammate."

* Inconsistency plagued Seattle for most of the season, but the team is hoping to build some stability over the last two games. "The good part about it is that here we have a couple more games left, and we continue to work at it and see if we can really develop some momentum and some better play and already know that you're going," coach Pete Carroll told reporters. "I'm anxious to see how we do that." A good place to start is with quarterback Russell Wilson, who has nine TD passes and three interceptions in seven home games but seven scores and eight picks on the road - including a disastrous five-interception outing at Green Bay in Week 14.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened this NFC West matchup as 7.5-point home favorites and that number was quickly bet up to 9 before fading back to the opening number late in the week. The total opened at 43.5 and was bet down to 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 vs. NFC West.
* Under is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 vs. NFC West.
* Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 39.5)

* Carlos Hyde needs 50 yards to reach 1,000 for the season but the veteran back hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 5. San Francisco had no players selected to the Pro Bowl, the first time that's happened since 2005, and they lost five players to injury against the Falcons. The 49ers' defense is near historically bad, allowing 434 points and an average of 176.3 yards rushing per contest. San Francisco has yielded at least three touchdowns in every game except the season opener.

* Goff practiced in full on Tuesday and Fassel said "we anticipate having him" Saturday. Sean Mannion was promoted to second-string quarterback for the Rams and would get the start if Goff doesn't clear the concussion protocol. The Rams are last in the NFL in scoring, averaging 14.1 points, and running back Todd Gurley has struggled throughout the campaign with 778 yards and an average of just 3.2 yards a carry. Gurley should have some success against a team that has allowed an average of 5.0 yards a carry to opposing backs with 22 touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY: The Rams opened the week as field goal home favorites and that number has been climbing all week reaching the current number of 5 by Friday afternoon. The total opened at 41 and has been bet down to 39.5 Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. NFC.
* Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
* Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games on grass.
* Under is 7-0 in Rams last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 16 upon us……

— Seahawks are 17-6 as a recent home favorite vs NFC West foes.

— Tennessee is 7-25-2 vs spread in its last 34 divisional games.

— Carolina is 6-10-1 vs spread in its last 17 games.

— Green Bay is 22-11-1 in its last 34 divisional games.

— Saints are 13-6 vs spread in their last nineteen games.

— Buffalo is 14-8-1 in its last 23 games vs AFC East opponents.