The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Packers at Eagles
November 27, 2016

Both the Packers and Eagles are sitting outside the NFC Wild Card race heading into December. The two NFC squads meet up in Philadelphia on Monday night looking to rebound from losses last week, as Green Bay is trying to end a four-game losing skid. The Eagles have been terrific at home by posting a 4-0 mark at Lincoln Financial Field, as they attempt to keep their home defensive domination going.

LAST WEEK

The Packers (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) lost not only their fourth consecutive game at Washington, but dropped to 1-4 away from Lambeau Field. The Redskins routed the Packers, 42-24 as three-point favorites as Green Bay allowed over 42 points for the second consecutive week. Washington outgained Green Bay, 515-424, even though Aaron Rodgers threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns in the defeat. Rodgers put up great fantasy numbers in the last two losses (351 vs. Washington and 371 vs. Tennessee), but the Packers’ defense has been carved up resulting in four straight OVERS.

The Eagles (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) continued their road struggles as well by falling at Seattle as 6 ½-point underdogs, 26-15. After Philadelphia took a 7-6 second quarter lead on a Carson Wentz touchdown pass to Zach Ertz, the Seahawks outscored the Eagles, 20-8 the rest of the way to send the Eagles to its fifth away loss of the season. Wentz has thrown four interceptions in his last two road losses to the Seahawks and Giants, while Philadelphia was limited to its fewest points in a game this season.

HOME COOKING

Philadelphia has struggled on the road in Wentz’s rookie season, but the Eagles are unbeaten at Lincoln Financial Field by posting a 4-0 SU/ATS record. In the four wins, the Eagles have allowed a total of 38 points, as Philadelphia has finished UNDER the total in each home contest. All four victories have come by at least nine points, while holding the Falcons to a season-low 15 points two weeks ago.

PACKING IT AWAY

Last season, the Packers won six of 10 games away from Lambeau Field. However, Green Bay hasn’t won a road game this season since a Week 1 triumph at Jacksonville, 27-23. The OVER has hit in four of five away contests for Green Bay, while allowing at least 23 points in four of five road games. The Packers have covered five of their last seven in the role of a road underdog since the 2014 NFC Championship game, but three of those ATS wins came in the playoffs.

SERIES HISTORY

From 2003 through 2014, the Eagles and Packers hooked up 10 times as Philadelphia captured six matchups. These teams last met in November 2014 at Lambeau Field as the Packers routed the Eagles, 53-20 to cash easily as 4 ½-point favorites. Rodgers picked apart the Philadelphia defense for 341 yards and three touchdown passes, while wide receiver Jordy Nelson hauled in four passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. Green Bay is making its first trip to Lincoln Financial Field since the Wild Card round in the 2010 season. The Packers eliminated the Eagles, 21-16 as Rodgers tossed three touchdowns in their first playoff win en route to capturing Super Bowl XLV.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Eagles as a three-point favorite, shaded to -120. That number has moved up with Philadelphia now laying 3 ½, while several offshore books, including 5Dimes and Sportsbook.ag has the Eagles listed as a four-point favorite. The total is floating all over the board with numbers between 47 and 48.

MONDAY NIGHT MEMORIES

The Packers have split their last four Monday night games, but are playing on the road on a Monday for the first time since 2012. Many football fans will remember that controversial finish when Green Bay lost on the Hail Mary pass at Seattle, 14-12 as three-point road favorites. The Eagles are playing their second Monday night game this season after routing the Bears in Week 2 by a 29-14 count. Philadelphia has won five of its past six Monday nighters since 2013, including a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field.

KEY TREND

VegasInsider.com handicapper Vince Akins provides a trend that favors the Packers on Monday. According to Akins, the Eagles are 0-13 ATS (-7.85 ppg) since 2011 as a favorite of less than six points when facing a team averaging less than 25 rushes per game. Green Bay has carried the ball 19 times or fewer in each of the last four games.

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Green Bay

A. Rodgers – Gross Passing Yards
285 ½ - OVER (-110)
285 ½ - UNDER (-110)

A. Rodgers – Total Touchdown Passes
2 – OVER (EVEN)
2 – UNDER (-120)

J. Nelson – Will he score a touchdown?
YES -145
NO +125

Philadelphia

C. Wentz – Total Completions
23 ½ - OVER (-110)
23 ½ - UNDER (-110)

C. Wentz – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-130)
1 ½ - UNDER (+110)

J. Matthews – Total Receiving Yards
66 ½ - OVER (-110)
66 ½ - UNDER (-110)

[StarDust Bum]

NFL RECORD AND BEST BETS:

10/31/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/03/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/06/2016 13-8-1 61.90% +2100
11/07/2016 0-1-1 0.00% -550
11/10/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/13/2016 9-12-0 42.86% -2100
11/14/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
1/17/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/20/2016 12-12-0 50.00% -600
11/21/2016 2-0-0 100.00% +1000
11/24/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/27/2016 12-10-2 54.55% +500

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 98-115-8 46.01% -14250

O/U Picks 95-119-5 44.39% -17950

Triple Plays:..... 47 - 55 - 4

NFC EASTERN CONFERENCE GOM.....0 - 1......... ( NY GIANTS THUMPS PHILLY )
NFL GAME OF THE YEAR.................0 - 0 -1 ( CAROLINA PUSHES WITH RAMS )
TOTAL OF THE DAY .......................1 - 0.....( INDY/GB GOES OVER 53 )
NFL SUNDAY NIGHT GOY..............,..0 - 1.....( RAIDERS STOMP BRONCOS )
INTERCONFERENCE GOD.............,...0 - 1,,,,,( DENVER UPSET SAINTS )
NFC GOM................................,....0 - 1.....( PHILLY UPENDS ATLANTA )
NFC NORTH GOM...........................0 - 1......( TAMPA BAY STOMPS THE BEARS)
NFC WEST BLOW OUT.....................0 - 1 .... ( ARIZONA BARELY BEATS THE 9ERS)
SUNDAY NIGHT INTERCONFERENCE GOY....0 - 1 ( SEATTLE UPSETS NEW ENGLAND )
SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR 1 - 0 .....( WELL OVER THE 49 PTS....55 PTS )
THURS DOG OF THE DAY ................1 - 0 ( WASHINGTON + 6 COVERS DALLAS 26 - 31 )
THURS TOTAL OF THE DAY............... 1 -0 ( WASH/DALLAS OVER 52 26 - 31 )
DOG OF THE DAY...................... 0 - 0 - 1 ( CHICAGO + 6 /TENNESSEE 27 - 21 )
TOTAL OF THE DAY.........................0 - 1 ( NYGIANTS/CLEVELAND OVER45' 27 - 13 )
SUNDAY NIGHT DOG ......................1 - 0 ( KANSAS CITY + 3.5 DENVER 30-27 )

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 28

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at PHI 08:30 PM

PHI -4.5 *****

U 47.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Rodgers tosses 2 TD passes, Packers beat Eagles 27-13
November 29, 2016

PHILADELPHIA (AP) Aaron Rodgers showed Carson Wentz what an elite quarterback can do for his team.

The two-time NFL MVP had a dazzling performance in a game the Green Bay Packers desperately needed to win. The rookie QB was inconsistent and made a costly mistake for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Rodgers had 313 yards passing and threw two touchdown passes to Davante Adams to help the Packers beat the Eagles 27-13 Monday night, snapping a four-game losing streak.

Wentz was 24 of 36 for 254 yards and threw an interception in Green Bay territory. He also was sacked four times.

Wentz didn't have starting running back Ryan Mathews the entire game, and No. 1 receiver Jordan Matthews missed most of the second half.

''The way he started the game was exceptional,'' Eagles coach Doug Pederson said. ''After that, playing with so many guys out, I thought he managed it extremely well. He stayed calm. He stayed on point.''

The Eagles and their fans hope Wentz can someday be on Rodgers' level.

''I think his ceiling is extremely high and Eagles fans should be very excited for the future,'' Rodgers said.

Rodgers was outstanding from the start, leading Green Bay to consecutive TD drives. He made perfect passes to Adams on both TDs and another on a 50-yard gain in the third quarter.

''There's a big difference between 4-7 and 5-6 for sure, but I hope there's not a ton of relief because we still have a lot of things in front of us we'd like to accomplish,'' Rodgers said. ''This is a step in the right direction, a game we needed to take care of business, but we have a short week with Houston coming in and we have to have a similar performance.''

Here's some things we learned from Green Bay's win over Philadelphia:

NO MORE DOMINANCE AT HOME: The Eagles were 4-0 and outscored opponents 108-38 at home before Rodgers and the Packers came to town. The Browns, Steelers, Vikings and Falcons combined for the same amount of TDs (three) as the Packers had against the Eagles.

DEFENSE RISES UP: The Packers had allowed 89 points in the past two games and at least 30 in each of the previous four, but they overcame injuries and shut down Philadelphia. Clay Matthews returned to inside linebacker because Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez were sidelined. Matthews briefly left with a shoulder injury on the Eagles' only TD drive.

''I felt natural going back in there,'' he said.

BALL CONTROL: The Packers went 10 for 14 on third downs, 1 for 1 on fourth and dominated time of possession by an 11-minute advantage. They sealed the game with a drive that lasted 8:21 in the fourth quarter.

''We have to get off the field on third down,'' Eagles cornerback Jalen Mills said.

WENTZ CAN RUN: After managing only 48 yards rushing in the first 10 games, Wentz scrambled four times for 33 yards. He had a 17-yard run on third-and-6 and got a positive gain after eluding a rusher who grabbed his facemask for a penalty on another third down.

DYNAMIC DAVANTE: Adams caught five passes for 113 yards and two TDs. He made excellent catches in difficult spots when Rodgers made perfect throws.

''He's a playmaker. He's grown each and every week and it's fun to watch,'' said teammate Jordy Nelson, who had eight receptions for 91 yards. ''The more guys we have out there to make plays, the better.''

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 12
November 28, 2016


Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 12 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 13-2
Against the Spread 7-7-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 7-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-7

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+5.5, ML +200) vs. Seahawks, 14-5
Chiefs (+3.5, ML +170) at Broncos, 30-27 (OT)

The largest favorite to cover
Steelers (-8) at Colts, 28-7
Saints (-7.5) vs. Rams, 49-21
Giants (-6.5) at Browns, 27-13

Giant Step Forward

-- The New York Giants picked up a 27-13 road win against the winless Cleveland Browns, earning another road cover. The Giants have been money lately, covering five of thier past six games. They also improved to 3-1-1 ATS on the road this season. They'll keep it on the road in Week 13 when they meet the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field. The Giants are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against the AFC North Division this season.

Jets Overhead

-- The New York Jets suffered a demoralizing loss against the New England Patriots, squandering a fourth quarter lead with a Patriots score at 1:56 to go in regulation. The Jets dropped to 2-9 SU in their past 11 meetings with the Patriots, although they were able to to move to 6-0-1 ATS in their past seven meetings and 11-5-1 ATS in the past 17. The two AFC East Division rivals will meet again in Week 16 in Foxboro on Christmas Eve.
Total Recall

-- The 'over' edged the 'under' 8-7 in Thursday and Sunday action with one game remaining on the schedule Monday night between the Green Bay Packers-Philadelphia Eagles at 'The Link' in Philly. In six AFC games the 'under' went 4-2, while in five NFC games the 'over' is 3-2 with one pending. In AFC vs. NFC games the 'over' ended up 3-1.

-- It was a mixed bag on the totals, as four of the top six totals ended up going 'over'. The highest total on the board, Thursday's Washington-Dallas (53) game, ended up going over with 1:53 to go in regulation. The other 50-plus total, Pittsburgh-Indianapolis (50), ended up going 'under' and it was never threatened, as Colts QB Scott Tolzien helped his team score just seven points.

-- If you've been following Chris David's 'Total Talk' this season, you'll know that Pacific Time Zone teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone have seen the 'over' cash frequently. In Week 12 the trend continued, as two of the three games hit the 'over'. Seattle-Tampa Bay (46) was the lone exception, as there were just five total points scored over the final three quarters. San Francisco-Miami (44.5) and Arizona-Atlanta (49) easily cashed the 'over'.

-- The lowest total on the board, Kansas City-Denver (40) ended up hitting the 'over'. It didn't look that way, as the teams were scoreless in the first quarter, and there was just a total of nine points on the board at halftime with zero offensive points. However, the two teams heated up dramatically in the second half, including 22 fourth-quarter points, and nine points in the overtime period.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in two primetime games with one to go Monday between the Packers and Eagles (47.5). Officially, the 'over' is 18-18 (50.0%) through 36 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Cardinals WR John Brown (hamstring) was forced out of Sunday's game in Atlanta due to a hamstring injury and he was unable to return.

-- Dolphins WR DeVante Parker (back) left Sunday's win against the Niners due to a back injury. He continues to have difficulty staying on the field for huge periods of time.

-- 49ers WR Quinton Patton (concussion) left Sunday's game at Miami and was unable to return.

-- Jaguars WR Allen Hurns (hamstring) injured his hamstring stretching for the pylon on a touchdown in Sunday's game in Buffalo and he was unable to return.

-- Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski (back) had his back tighten up early in the rivalry at against the Jets, and he was unable to return. It sounds as if the injury is not believed to be significant, but when Gronk isn't on the field the offensive is missing a huge bullet in the chamber.

-- Raiders QB Derek Carr (finger) dislocated the pinkie on his right hand in Sunday's win against the Panthers. He missed a series, but was able to return and finish the game with a glove protecting his injury.

Looking Ahead

-- The West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone trend is in play when the Rams visit the Patriots in Foxboro. The trend will be put to the test, as the 'under' has hit in four of the past five games, while the 'over' is 3-2 in five games at home for New England, including each of the past two.

-- The Dallas Cowboys travel to Minnesota for Thursday's game. The Cowboys are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in five road games this season, while the Vikings are just 1-5 SU/ATS in their past six games overall.

-- The Raiders host the Bills in Week 13. The 'over' is 4-0 in the past four games against a team with a winning record for Oakland, although the Raiders are just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games at home. The 'over' is 6-1 in the past seven overall for the Bills, and 4-1 in their past five on the road against teams with a winning home record. For Oakland, the 'over' is 18-6-2 in the past 26 in the Black Hole, and 5-1 in their past six against AFC teams with a 4-1 over mark in the past five against winning teams.

-- The Panthers and Seahawks meet in Seattle, and the 'over' is 5-0 in the past five meetings in the Pacific Northwest. The 'over' is 4-1 in the past five road games for Carolina, and 12-3 in their past 15 against teams with a winning record.

[StarDust Bum]

Opening Line Report - Week 13
November 28, 2016

In addition to the Cowboys, the Giants (six in a row), Dolphins (six in a row) and Raiders (five in a row) have put together nice winning streaks of their own. None of these three teams, however, is commanding an abundance of respect in Las Vegas, evidenced by the early lines for next week’s slate of games.

Here are all the opening Week 13 point spreads, along with insight from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night, with early moves and differences among books also noted.

Thursday, Dec. 1

Dallas Cowboys (-3, -120) at Minnesota Vikings

A respected bettor at the Westgate laid Dallas -3, prompting a move to -3.5, before buy-back on the dog resulted in an adjustment to Dallas -3.5 (even). William Hill and the Wynn were both dealing Dallas -3 (-120) on Sunday night, but -3 flat was available at CG Technology.

While this feels like a spot for the Cowboys’ 10-game win streak to end, the question is whether the Vikings have what it takes to make that happen.

“It’s a big game for Minnesota and Dallas is kind of due for a loss, but I don’t know if Minnesota is able to (play well enough),” Salmons said. “Their offense is so bad.”

Sunday, Dec. 4

Denver Broncos (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Westgate opened Denver -5 with a quick move to -4.5, despite Jacksonville’s 2-9 straight-up record and six-game losing streak.

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Atlanta opened -4 at both CG and the Westgate on Sunday, but the Westgate moved to -3.5 in early wagering.

The Falcons are getting plenty of respect among Vegas bookmakers.

“That Atlanta team has so much speed on offense it’s scary,” said Salmons “... They can outscore anyone. Their offense is so good, it makes their defense have to play only one way, against the pass, because they get a lead and they don’t really have to worry about the other team running the ball.”

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

The Westgate hung Green Bay -3.5 but was up to -5 about 35 minutes after betting opened. Green Bay was available at -4 and -4.5 at other shops.

The road has not been kind to the Texans, who are 1-4 SU and ATS away from Houston this season, the lone win coming at Jacksonville.

Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Last week in this space, William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich told us Cincy would be a bet-against team the rest of the season http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/story.cfm/story/1816494. The strategy paid off for Ravens bettors Sunday, and some gamblers are going back to the well next week. The Westgate took a bet on Philly -1 and moved to -2.5 in one flash, and CG moved from a pick ‘em to Philly -1. Still, 1.5 was the most popular number in Las Vegas on Sunday night.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4.5)

While this game ranged from New Orleans -4 (Wynn) to -6 (Westgate) on Sunday night, 4.5 was the number on more Vegas boards.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-2.5)

The 3s posted at the Westgate and William Hill were changed to 2.5s in early wagering, although CG was dealing Chicago -3 and Coasts -3 (even).

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13.5)

CG opened New England -14 and moved to -13.5, while the Westgate opened -13.5 with an early move to -13.

Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Respected money showed up on the favorite at the Westgate’s opening number of Baltimore -3.5 (even), as doubts persist about the Dolphins, even though they’ve won six games in a row.

“I don’t really think much of Miami,” Salmons said. “They’re winning games with mirrors. If they were to lose three or four in a row, it wouldn’t surprise you. You can only win so many close games”

Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Oakland Raiders

While this line indicates respect for the 6-5 Bills, Salmons is among the Vegas types not ready to buy the Raiders, despite their stellar 9-2 record.

“All the close games they win,” Salmons said. “Teams have years like that and then everyone will say, ‘oh, they know how to win the close games,’ and then the next year, the complete opposite will happen and they lose every close game – like Carolina this year – and they go from 11-5 or 12-4 to 5-11, and that’s just how it is.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-4.5)

This line spanned from San Diego -3.5 at the Wynn to the opener of -5.5 at the Westgate. While the Westgate moved down the ladder to -4.5, the Wynn stayed put at a field goal plus the hook.

Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

Sharp money liked Washington +2.5 at the Westgate, which moved momentarily to 1.5, as the wheels continue to fall off in Arizona. CG opened Arizona -3 (even) and moved opposite the market to -3 flat.

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

A respected player at the Westgate laid -6 with Pittsburgh, prompting a move to -6.5, before the book corrected back to -6. Other shops were dealing -5.5.

Salmons explained his thinking for making the middling Steelers this big a favorite over the surging Giants.

“It’s a late game, so we’re probably going to need the Giants,” he said. “When Pittsburgh’s favored, they get a huge following. The public loves Pittsburgh. Teams like that, you’re always going to shade up, it’s just automatic. You get such one-way betting on teams like this. …

“When these teams cover we lose – that’s how our business runs – so we try to make it as high as possible, and if we go too high, the wiseguys will take it back.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Similar to Pittsburgh, Seattle is a team the public will be on in a big way next week, Salmons anticipates. “It’s a Sunday night game so that means all the liability will be on Seattle. Every parlay and every ticket will be on Seattle.”

Monday, Dec. 5

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at New York Jets

The Westgate opened 2.5 but was bet to 1.

The number was set with the assumption that Andrew Luck will be back for Indy. Should Luck not be able to return from concussion protocol, the line would be about Jets -3, Salmons estimates.

[StarDust Bum]

Fitzpatrick to remain Jets' starting QB
November 28, 2016

NEW YORK (AP) Ryan Fitzpatrick will remain the New York Jets' starting quarterback for the team's game next Monday night against the Indianapolis Colts.

Coach Todd Bowles made the announcement a day after the Jets lost 22-17 to the New England Patriots and fell to 3-8.

Fitzpatrick was mostly solid against New England, going 22 of 32 for 269 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, but fumbled on New York's final drive when he was hit while attempting to throw. The Patriots recovered and ran out the clock.

With the Jets all but eliminated from playoff contention, some fans and media are calling for the Jets to play Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg to evaluate the young quarterbacks. Bowles says there will come a time for them, but says Fitzpatrick gives New York the best chance to win now - which remains his goal.


--------------------------------

Colts hopeful Luck will play next Monday
November 28, 2016

NDIANAPOLIS (AP) Andrew Luck looked good and sounded even better Monday.

More importantly, he said all the right things.

A little more than a week after entering the concussion protocol and four days after missing his first game of the season, the Indianapolis Colts' franchise quarterback returned to the practice field - an optimistic sign he could play next Monday night against the New York Jets.

''You have to be prudent with your brain, cautious is maybe the wrong word,'' Luck said. ''There's a protocol for a reason and we have to do this by the book. I believe I have and the doctors and trainers have done a good job of sort of holding my hand to get through this process.''

Luck complained of concussion-like symptoms following a Nov. 20 win over Tennessee.

It wasn't immediately clear when Luck was injured and he shed no additional light on what happened during his first interview since getting hurt. He also said it was the first time he's been diagnosed with a concussion.

Coach Chuck Pagano acknowledged Monday that Luck had already cleared several steps of the protocol and is expected to take the next one when he returns to a full practice Wednesday.

If Luck does well enough, an independent doctor could subsequently clear Luck to play in next week's game against the Jets (3-8).

Luck's backup, the rarely used Scott Tolzien , struggled in Thursday's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

When word spread around the Colts' locker room that Luck could return Monday night, the news was welcomed.

''Scott did a great job, but any time you can be healthy as an offense you have a chance to be successful,'' center Ryan Kelly said.

Kelly missed most of Thursday's game with a left shoulder injury and is hopeful of returning at the Jets. Receiver T.Y. Hilton (lower back) and outside linebacker Robert Mathis (biceps) also did not finish the game.

If Luck, Kelly, Hilton and safety Clayton Geathers (concussion) all return this week, the timing couldn't be better.

Indy (5-6) needs to string together wins over the final five weeks to chase down AFC South leader Houston (6-5) and second-place Tennessee (6-6). The Colts already swept both meetings with the Titans this season.

The reeling Jets have lost three straight. The Colts still have home games against the Texans and Jacksonville and road trips to Minnesota and Oakland.

Luck gives Indy the best chance to make up ground.

The Colts missed the postseason last season for the first time in four years and they haven't missed the playoffs in back-to-back seasons since 1997 and 1998.

But staying healthy the past two seasons has been difficult for Luck.

He's already been sacked a league-high 35 times and been hit several more times this season, before sitting out Thursday night.

In 2015, Luck spent more than half the season on the sideline with a variety of injuries including a lacerated kidney that cost him the final seven games. The Colts went 6-3 in Luck's absence.

The difference this season is that Indy doesn't have a longtime veteran with Super Bowl experience to bail them out, so they need Luck to continue lining up, getting up and making plays over this final stretch.

And nobody knows it better than Luck.

''It's no fun (sitting out), but once you're out, you have to do what you can to help your team,'' Luck said. ''I feel great. I'm 100 percent. I'm ready to go.''

Notes: Pagano was asked whether Mathis was considered day to day after the long weekend. Pagano responded: ''Yeah, you could say that.'' ... Outside linebacker Trent Cole, who has been on injured reserve, returned to the practice field Monday but has not yet been activated.

[StarDust Bum]

Falcons' fill-ins shine through injuries
November 28, 2016

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. (AP) The Atlanta Falcons continue to protect their NFC South lead by finding productive replacements for injured starters.

The latest evidence of the team's depth came in Sunday's 38-19 win over the Arizona Cardinals. Fill-in starters Matt Wile and Jalen Collins and backup receiver Taylor Gabriel were three players highlighted by coach Dan Quinn on Monday as playing crucial roles in the win.

The Falcons (7-4) will take a one-game lead over Tampa Bay into this week's game against Kansas City (8-3).

Collins, a second-round pick in 2015, is in the spotlight as the replacement for star cornerback Desmond Trufant, who has missed two straight games with a shoulder/pectoral injury that could end his season.

Atlanta players have accepted the likelihood that Trufant is facing season-ending surgery.

''That loss is truly significant, but we have got guys behind him like Jalen Collins,'' defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux said after Sunday's game. ''We also have a lot of young guys behind him as well that are ready to compete. I don't think the drop-off will be too big. We have got guys that are hungry.''

Quinn challenged Collins and cornerbacks Robert Alford and Brian Poole to defend Arizona receivers close to the line. Collins shared the team lead with six tackles, including one for a loss, against Arizona.

''I really appreciated him competing,'' Quinn said of Collins Monday. ''... He had difficult matchups on a number of good players and he just kept responding. We're anxious to see where he goes, but for me his arrow is certainly trending up.''

Quinn said the team would add another defensive back this week if Trufant is placed on injured reserve.

Wile excelled in his NFL debut as regular punter Matt Bosher missed the game with a hamstring injury. Wile averaged 58 yards on two punts and had touchbacks on each of his seven kickoffs.

Quinn, who acknowledged last week he was nervous about having a punter with no NFL experience making the start, applauded Wile's debut.

''When your opportunity comes, you go nail it,'' Quinn said.

Gabriel didn't start but had four catches for 75 yards , including two touchdowns on screens which showcased his speed.

Rookie tight end Austin Hooper had two catches and Levine Toilolo also had a catch as tag-team replacements for Jacob Tamme, who was placed on injured reserve with a shoulder injury during the team's bye week.

The team also weathered a wave of injuries at linebacker early in the season. Sean Weatherspoon was placed on IR while De'Vondre Campbell missed four games and Deion Jones missed one game.

Quinn said it is important to ''recognize the value'' of every backup.

''That's why we push each guy to take them as far as we can, knowing when your opportunity is called, you're ready to answer,'' he said. ''That's one of the best ways to demonstrate earning respect from your teammate. Here's my opportunity, I'm going to go nail it.''

NOTES: Quinn said DE Adrian Clayborn, who left the game with a knee injury, will see a doctor this week. An update on Clayborn's status is expected on Wednesday. ... Following his review of the game film, Quinn said he hopes S Keanu Neal is not fined for a hit on Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald that drew an unnecessary roughness penalty. Both players lowered their helmets before the contact. ''I thought it was a very clean hit where he's hitting the strike zone exactly where we want him to,'' Quinn said of Neal.


----------------------------------------

Giants in position to make December run
November 28, 2016

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) In his rookie season as coach, Ben McAdoo has taken the New York Giants into somewhat neglected territory.

The Giants (8-3) are in the playoff hunt for the first time since 2012, a year they faltered down the stretch, winning two of their last five games to finish 9-7.

Despite riding a six-game winning streak and the second best record in the NFC, New York is going to have to work to make the playoffs for the first time since winning the Super Bowl in February 2012.

It has the AFC North co-leading Steelers (6-5) in Pittsburgh on Sunday. NFC East leader Dallas (10-1), whose only loss is to the Giants, is at MetLife Stadium on Dec. 11, followed by NFC North-leading Detroit (7-4) on the 18th.

Four days later, the Giants face the rival Eagles on the road, and close out the schedule at Washington on Jan. 1. The Redskins (6-4-1) have the second-best record in the wild-card race, right behind the Giants.

For a team that has not put it all together this season, especially on offense, the playoffs are not guaranteed.

''As a team, where do we go from here?'' McAdoo asked. ''It's December football. This is where the real football begins. All our hard work to this point has set the table for December. It's an exciting time against a lot of playoff teams and playoff environments. The margin for error is small. This is where our identity needs to take over.''

The Giants' identity has been that of a team that gets things done. For the most part, it has been star players stepping up and making plays.

In the 27-13 decision over the Browns (0-12) on Sunday, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul led the way with seven tackles, three sacks, a forced fumble and a fumble return for a touchdown. Eli Manning added three touchdown passes, including two to Odell Beckham Jr.

The constant in the winning streak has been the play of the defense, which has been led by safety Landon Collins.

McAdoo insists the Giants won't be focused on making the playoffs.

''I think it's important to address the elephant in the room, so to speak,'' McAdoo said. ''Everything gets cranked up a notch in December with everyone jockeying for position. We just need to make sure we play our best football moving forward.''

If any group has to step up, it's the offense. It has been inconsistent most of the season, especially the running game.

While the Giants scored 27 points against the Browns, the defense set up the first touchdown with a turnover at the Cleveland 31 in the second quarter. Pierre-Paul's return got another touchdown.

Special teams also need to improve. Cleveland got three points after Bobby Rainey muffed a punt, and a Mark Herzlich holding penalty nullified a punt return for a touchdown by Beckham in the fourth quarter.

''I think it's great that we have players that can change the game in one play,'' McAdoo said. ''We need to be mentally dialed-in to play a complete game at all three phases for four-plus quarters. We really need to cash in on that in December.''

NOTES: McAdoo refused to say whether Beckham would continue to return punts down the stretch. ... Herzlich and safety Nat Berhe were hurt in the game and are starting the week in the concussion protocol. It's the second time this season for Berhe. ... Rookie receiver Sterling Shepard not only failed to catch a pass for the first time this season, he also was not targeted. McAdoo called it unfortunate. ''We're not completing enough balls or moving the chains as much as we need to move the chains for everyone to get involved. ... It's too early to tell whether Gs Justin Pugh (knee), Brett Jones (calf) and Marshall Newhouse (knee) will be able to practice this week, McAdoo said. ... McAdoo did not know if RB Shane Vereen, who has been on injured reserve with a triceps injury since Week 3, would practice this week.

[StarDust Bum]

Rams say Eric Dickerson is always welcome on their sideline
November 28, 2016

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. (AP) The Los Angeles Rams want Eric Dickerson to know he's welcome anytime on their sideline or just about anywhere else he wants to go.

Rams COO Kevin Demoff tweeted reassurance at the Hall of Fame running back on Monday, shortly after Dickerson claimed he was no longer allowed on the sideline due to his criticism of the team.

Coach Jeff Fisher doubled down during his weekly news conference, saying Dickerson is welcome to attend practice or sit in on team meetings with the Rams (4-7). Fisher had a warm phone conversation with Dickerson just last week, he said.

''I don't know where that's coming from with Eric,'' Fisher said. ''He's always welcome. He's welcome in the building. I'd love to have him come in. I'd love to have him come to practice. I'd love to have him come into meetings. I mean, Eddie George has been in my meetings more than Eric Dickerson has. I'd love to have him here.''

Dickerson made the claim on his radio show on KLAC-AM, saying he had been told by an unnamed Rams official that he makes the players uncomfortable because of his criticism of the team. Dickerson worked as a Rams broadcaster during the preseason, and he does a weekly 2-hour radio show largely about the relocated franchise, which has lost six of its last seven games to fall to 4-7.

Demoff said he reached out to Dickerson to find out how any miscommunication could have occurred. The executive insisted Dickerson is ''a valued member'' of the Rams' ''family.''

''We all share his love for our team and our fans,'' Demoff tweeted.

Dickerson played his first four-plus NFL seasons with the Rams, setting the NFL's single-season rushing record with 2,105 yards in 1984 while they played in Anaheim. He lives in the Los Angeles area and remains a beloved figure to football fans at the Coliseum, where dozens of his replica jerseys still appear at every Rams home game.

[StarDust Bum]

Rex Ryan's next test is breaking Bills' hex at Oakland
November 28, 2016

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) Rex Ryan was stumped when asked if he knew how long it's been since the Buffalo Bills last won at Oakland.

''Fifty years ago? Phew,'' the Bills coach said Monday when informed of the answer before correctly guessing Jack Kemp was the quarterback in that 31-10 win in 1966. ''That's amazing. Woof. You talk about a drought.''

Not including a 1-2 record against the Los Angeles-based Raiders, the Bills have lost their past eight games at Oakland. That includes Buffalo's most recent visit, a 26-24 loss in 2014 that eliminated the Bills from playoff contention.

As if Ryan and the Bills (6-5) needed another reminder of how daunting their bid might be to manufacture a late-season playoff push that resumes at the AFC West-leading Raiders (9-2) on Sunday.

''I don't know if it's extra motivation that this team's got this record or whatever. They've got that record because they earned it,'' Ryan said. ''We know our backs are to the wall regardless of who we play. So they're going to get our best shot one way or the other.''

The Bills have shown perseverance in overcoming a rash of injuries and second-half deficits to win each of their past two games. Buffalo followed a 16-12 victory at Cincinnati by exchanging leads five times in the second half to pull out a 28-21 win over Jacksonville on Sunday.

Ryan acknowledged the Bills haven't been perfect. And yet, he's not complaining about how his team has bounced back from a four-game skid to have a winning record through 11 games for just the fourth time since the Bills' 16-season playoff drought began in 2000.

''I liked the fact that we were resilient, we stayed the course and we found a way to get it done,'' he said.

It won't get much easier this weekend given how depleted the Bills might be as a result of injuries. Ryan was unable to provide any definitive updates on the status of players hurt against Jacksonville.

It's a group that includes starting cornerback Ronald Darby (concussion protocol), starting defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (strained abdomen) and backup receiver Walt Powell (left ankle). And then there are receivers Robert Woods (left knee) and Percy Harvin (migraines), who were sidelined the previous week.

On the bright side, Ryan said backup running back Mike Gillislee is expected to return after missing one game with a hamstring injury. He was also encouraged by how receiver Sammy Watkins and running back LeSean McCoy performed despite their injuries.

Watkins had three catches for 80 yards, including a 62-yarder, in his first game in nine weeks since aggravating an injury to his surgically repaired left foot. McCoy had 103 yards rushing and scored twice a week after having surgery to repair a dislocated left thumb.

With 153 yards rushing, Buffalo continues to lean heavily on its running attack, which has topped 150 yards in each of its past four games. The Bills haven't had a five-game streak of more than 150 yards since the first five weeks of the 1975 season.

Trailing 7-0, Buffalo overcame a four-point deficit for just the second time in two seasons under quarterback Tyrod Taylor.

On defense, the Bills gave up three touchdowns and failed to get a takeaway for the fourth time in five games, but they limited the Jaguars to 301 yards offense.

NOTES: The Bills' 20 touchdowns rushing this season are already tied for fourth on the team list, and are six short of the franchise record set in 1975. ... Buffalo's six giveaways are the fewest through 11 games in league history, breaking the old record of eight shared by five teams. ... Including playoffs, the Bills are 19-20 against the Raiders, and 5-12 overall at Oakland.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Top Action
November 29, 2016

NFL Week 13 Thursday Football Betting Preview
Dallas Cowboys (10-1 SU; 10-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (6-5 SU; 6-5 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Dallas (-4); Total set at 44

The Dallas Cowboys are the train that keeps on rolling this season as they've now won 10 straight games. There was a minor slip up for that train's path though as last week's five-point home win over Washington wasn't enough for the Cowboys to cover the spread yet again. That ATS loss halted a nine-game ATS run that Dallas had produced during this incredible winning streak.

Oddsmakers were glad to see that Dallas backers weren't able to make their weekly trip to the cashier's window after that game, and will no doubt be hoping for a similar result this week as the Cowboys are in Minnesota to take on the crumbling Vikings.

Minnesota's season has been a roller coaster from the start and they are back on the down side of things right now. The year began by Minnesota losing starting QB Teddy Bridgewater for the year, watching RB Adrian Peterson go down with a significant injury, and then trying to prove everyone wrong with the 5-0 SU start they had. Since then though the Vikings are 1-5 SU (1-5 ATS) and look like a team in a complete downward spiral. Given the roll the Cowboys have been on for months now, you won't find too many Vikings supporters this week and it's tough to argue a position against that.

However, if Minnesota is going to get back in the thick of the NFC North and NFC playoff race in general, they are going to need their defense and special teams to carry them for a few more weeks. It was a Pick-6 and a kickoff return TD that enabled Minnesota to get their lone win during this downward stretch two weeks ago and this unit has proved all year long that they are much better at home.

There hasn't really been anyone out there that has been able to contain the Cowboys offense of late with 24 or more points in every game during this 10-game winning streak, but Minnesota's definitely got the tools to do so if they play their top level game. It still might not be enough for the win SU or even ATS, because Minnesota's offense is still abysmal, but expect the Vikings defense to be extremely physical, throw some exotic looks at QB Dak Prescott and muck this game up into a slugfest.

That's why the better betting option here is on the total, as points should be hard to come by in this contest. Vikings QB Sam Bradford is banged up and even if he does go, he's been the definition of a dink-and-dunk passer all season long. His backup Shaun Hill has been a “game-manager” QB his entire career and the last thing Minnesota wants to do here is get into a back-and-forth shootout with the high-powered Dallas offense.

The Cowboys defense has been stout away from home in their own right as three of their last four contests as visitors have not had an opponent score more than 17 points against them. With Minnesota's offense ranking last in the league in yards per game (294.9), chances are Dallas will do their part in making things difficult to score points as well.

Dallas comes into this game on a 2-8 O/U run in their last 12 games as visitors and while this next situation has only applied once this year, the fact that the Cowboys are 3-10 O/U after failing to cover a spread can't be ignored either. Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense has no problem stepping up their play against quality foes as they are 2-14 O/U in their last 16 against a winning team, and they've got a 2-9 O/U run going after failing to cover a spread as well.

Best Bet: Dallas/Minnesota Under 44 points

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 13
November 30, 2016

THURSDAY, DEC. 1

DALLAS at MINNESOTA (NBC/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Cowboys finally have a spread L after Redskins game but still 9-1-1 vs. line this season Dallas also 5-0 SU and vs. line on road in 2016. Vikes now 1-5 SU and vs. line last six this season, Zimmer also “under” 7-4 in 2016, “under” 27-17 since taking over Vikes in 2014.
Tech Edge: Cowboys and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.

SUNDAY, DEC. 4

DENVER at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Into KC game last Sunday, Kubiak 9-3 vs. line last 12 dating to late LY. Broncos also “under” 8-4-1 last 13 since late 2015. Jags 2-4 vs. line last six TY, Gus Bradley now 23-34-2 vs. spread since taking over Jags in 2013.
Tech Edge: Broncos and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at ATLANTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcons bounced back vs. Cards but no covers 3 of last 5 after five covers previous. Atlanta 2-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-8 last 11 vs. spread at home. Prior to Denver, Chiefs had covered last three on road this season and 8-2 vs. spread last ten road regular season games. Falcs “over” 9-2 in 2016, Chiefs “under” 8-2.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at GREEN BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 1-4 SU and vs. line away from home this season. Even after last Monday's win vs. Eagles, Pack just 4-8-1 last 13 vs. spread in reg.-season games. Pack “over” 4-1 last five this season.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” and team trends.

PHILADELPHIA at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bengals 2-9 vs. spread this season though 2-2 at home. Eagles have dropped four straight vs. spread on road and just 2-6 vs. spread overall last eight after loss to Pack on Monday. Birds also “over” 7-1 last 8 away (4-1 TY).
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on Eagles road “totals” trends.

DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions now on 5-1-1 spread uptick though they’re only 2-3 vs. line away this season. Detroit only 1-4 vs. line last five after Thanksgiving. Saints on pointspread ascent with covers in 7 of last 8 TY. Saints also “over” 10-2 last 12 at Superdome.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Niners only two covers last ten since opening win over Rams. Also “over’ 7-3 last ten. Bears, however, only 3-8 vs. line TY and 4-12 last 16 for John Fox since late 2015. Bears 3-10 vs. spread as host since LY and no covers last 5 as chalk.
Tech Edge: 49ers and “over,” based on extended and “totals” trends.

LOS ANGELES at NEW ENGLAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Fisher “under” 7-4 TY and 19-8-1 last 28 since late 2014. Rams 1-4-2 vs. line last seven TY and 0-4-1 last five as dog, as Fisher dog marks have flattened since his first year with Rams in 2012. Belichick 8-3 vs. line TY and “under” 7-4.
Tech Edge: Patriots and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MIAMI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins have won six in a row SU and 5-1 vs. line in those games. Ravens “under” 8-3 in 2016, 10-3 last 13, 14-5 last 19 on board. Harbaugh 5-8-1 vs. spread last 14 at home though has covered last three.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BUFFALO at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bills 6-3 last 9 vs. line TY and 4-1 last 5 as dog. Raiders only 1-4 vs. spread in Coliseum TY and 3-10 in role as host since Del Rio arrived last season. Del Rio also “over” 9-2 this season.
Tech Edge: Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at SAN DIEGO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Jameis Winston a surprising 4-1 SU and vs. line on road this season. Bucs also “over” 9-5 since late last season. Bolts 2-2 as home chalk TY, 6-9 last 15 in role. Also “over” 9-3 since late last season.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.

WASHINGTON at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Skins continue to surge vs. spread, now covers in four straight and eight of nine. Jay Gruden also 12-3 vs. line last 15 in regular season games. Skins also “over” 9-2 TY after Dallas game on Thanksgiving and “over” 14-2 last 16 since late 2015! Big Red no covers last five this season and just 3-9 vs. line last 12 regular season games on board.
Tech Edge: Redskins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NY GIANTS at PITTSBURGH (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Eli has won last six SU this season and 5-1-1 vs. line last seven. Steel two covers in a row after four spread Ls, Steel also “under” 12-3 last 15 since late last season.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under” and Giants, based on “totals” and team trends.

CAROLINA at SEATTLE (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Rematch of playoffs from past two seasons. Panthers also won reg.-season matchup last year as they swept the 2015 meetings vs. Hawks. But Cam only 3-8-1 last 12 on board since late LY. These teams also “over” their last three meetings after “under previous three. Hawks only 2-4 vs. spread last six as host.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on series “totals” trends.

MONDAY, DEC. 5
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at NY JETS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Indy was 4-1-1 vs. line in six prior to Luck injury and Thanksgiving vs. Steelers. Jets 3-6 vs. line last nine TY, also 2-7 vs. spread last 9 after facing Patriots. Indy “over” 8-4 last 12 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Colts and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday’s six-pack

Submitted for your perusal: Week 13 NFL trends…….

— Cowboys covered nine of their last ten games.

— Arizona covered three of its last twelve games.

— Jaguars are 5-12 vs spread in their last 17 games.

— 49ers are 5-11 in last 16 games as a road underdog.

— Eagles are 0-5 vs spread in their last five road games.

— Washington is 12-3 vs spread in its last 15 games.

Thursday’s List of 13: Our bottom 3, top 10 in NFL

32) Browns— On their bye this week; get RGIII back from injury next week against the Bengals.

31) 49ers- Oregon job is open; Chip Kelly says he isn’t interested.

30) Jaguars— Supposedly playing Ravens in London next year. Baltimore is one of eight NFL teams that hasn’t played an international game.

10) Lions— Have trailed all 11 games in 4th quarter, meaning this 7-4 team could realistically be 0-11. Weird that they’ll play only three outdoor games in regular season.

9) Redskins— Play three of next four games on the road; their last road win was October 9.

8) Chiefs— Last four games were all decided by 5 or less points.

7) Falcons— Over is 9-2 in their games this year; fun team to watch.

6) Dolphins— Won last six games (5-1 vs spread); they’re +10 in turnovers in those games.

5) Giants— Won their last six games. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

4) Seahawks— 7-1 this season when they score 12+ points; they’ve been held to 3-5-6 points by three teams who probably won’t make the playoffs.

3) Raiders— David Carr dislocated pinky on his throwing hand LW; played 4th quarter with glove on his hand. Will he wear the glove this week?

2) Patriots— Won six of their last seven games- they’re a 13-point favorite this week.

1) Cowboys— Won ten games in row (9-1 vs spread); good ballgame Thursday in Minnesota.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 13 opening line report: Early Cowboys action moving line

“We had the Cowboys power-rated as a 3 point favorite, but knowing what the bettors are going to do here, we added the hook and opened Cowboys -3.5."

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5)

For the second straight week, these teams will play on Thursday, this time against each other after both played on Thanksgiving.

Dallas, behind rookies Dak Prescott at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliott at running back, has been nothing short of completely impressive during a 10-game winning streak. On Thursday, the Cowboys (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS) held off Washington 31-26 as a 5.5-point home favorite, the first time since Week 1 that they haven’t cashed.

Minnesota (6-5 SU and ATS) has pretty much squandered all of its 5-0 SU and ATS start. For the second time this month, the Vikings fell to Detroit, this time 16-13 as a 1.5-point road underdog on Thursday.

“The Cowboys finally didn’t cover, showing that the spread and the betting markets finally caught up with them,” Childs said. “That said, they closed a 6-point favorite last Thursday and won by 5, so they were pretty damn close to cashing tickets for their backers. No question, bettors are going to back them again, especially considering how poorly the Vikings played on Thanksgiving.

“The Vikings’ offense is virtually nonexistent. They’re ranked dead last rushing the ball in the NFL, and it’s not just bad, but historically bad. They face the best rushing team and one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.

Sportsbook.ag had to keep all that and more in mind when setting the opening number.

“We had the Cowboys power-rated as a 3 point favorite, but knowing what the bettors are going to do here, we added the hook and opened Cowboys -3.5. So far, all the early action is on them, and we’ve already gone to -4.”

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)

As Dallas grabs all the headlines, New York – the only team to beat the Cowboys this year – has quietly run its record to 8-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS. The Giants beat winless Cleveland 27-13 as a 6.5-point road fave Sunday.

Pittsburgh got itself back above .500 on Thanksgiving night, dumping Indianapolis 28-7 as an 8-point chalk to improve to 6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS. That kept the Steelers tied with Baltimore atop the AFC North.

“The Steelers come into this game plenty rested, and it’s a great spot for them,” Childs said. “That extra three days is big considering the Giants will be playing their second consecutive road game. Both teams have plenty of weapons on offense, but the Giants grade out better on the defensive side of the ball. That said, the Giants really haven’t beaten a quality team, in my opinion.

“We grade out the Steelers as the better team, playing with extra rest and playing at home against a team we have serious questions about. We opened the Steelers a solid 6-point favorite, and so far, money and bet count is dead equal on this game.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons, no line

Atlanta has won three of its last four, which in the NFC South is considered blazing hot. The Falcons (7-4 SU and ATS) coasted past Arizona 38-19 laying 4 points at home Sunday.

Kansas City kept itself just a game behind AFC West-leading Oakland by pulling out a riveting overtime win in Denver on Sunday night. The Chiefs (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) got a final-seconds TD and 2-point conversion to tie the game, then won 30-27 on a field goal as time expired in OT, cashing as a 3.5-point road pup.

“We didn’t open this game yet, as the Chiefs were playing Sunday night,” Childs said. “But I see us opening this game roughly Falcons -3.5.”

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Just when Seattle seemed to be rounding into their Super Bowl form, Pete Carroll’s troops laid a complete egg Sunday. The Seahawks (7-3-1 SU, 6-5 ATS), 5-point favorites at Tampa Bay, only scored that many points in a 14-5 loss.

Meanwhile, defending NFC champion Carolina can just about mail it in on this season. The Panthers (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) made a stirring comeback from a 24-7 deficit at Oakland, ultimately taking a 32-24 lead, but they fell short 35-32 getting 3.5 points.

“This is a tough game, because we’re not sure of the Panthers’ mindset,” Childs said. “They’re off a devastating loss against the Raiders, a loss that essentially eliminates them from serious playoff contention. They travel to arguably the toughest place to play, in Seattle, and they take on a team off a very disappointing loss to the Bucs. It was an embarrassing offensive showing for the Seahawks, and we fully expect them to bring their ‘A’ game in this prime-time contest.

“We opened the Seahawks -6.5. Again, we know the type of effort we’ll see from Seattle. If they play their best game, they can beat anyone by over a touchdown at home, especially if that team comes in flat, which the Panthers could be. We’ll see what the betting market does with this game and go from there.”

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 13 NFL lines are going to move

The New York Giants have won six straight (5-1 ATS in that stretch) and now stand at 8-3.

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Here come the Giants. The New Yorkers have won six straight (5-1 ATS in that stretch) and now stand at 8-3. The Giants have a puncher’s chance at catching the Cowboys in the NFC East (they have Dallas at home on Dec. 11), and even if they fall short, they are in prime position for a wild-card spot. They aren’t overpowering anyone on either side of the ball, but they are just good enough on both offense and defense to get the job done. Whether the Giants can stay hot as the competition gets tougher is anyone’s guess, though. None of their final five opponents have a losing record, and the next three games (Steelers, Cowboys, Lions) are division leaders who will have lots on the line. Early money is spread equally on this game, suggesting no line movement.


Game to wait on

Dallas at Minnesota (+3.5) (Thursday)

Heavy money on the Cowboys forced books to move this one from Vikings +2.5 to +3.5, unusual in that it could enable early bettors to middle it and win on both ends if the Cowboys win by a field goal. What is clear is that the Vikings’ loss – their 5th in the last 6 games – last Thursday at Detroit exposed some serious offensive problems. With Adrian Peterson out, Minnesota doesn’t have much of a run game (RBs had only 58 yards vs. the Lions). Dallas has scored at least 24 points in every game since the opener (a 20-19 loss to the Giants; the Cowboys are only two points away from a perfect season). Minnesota is banged up quite a bit, so it might be worthwhile to wait until the injury report to see who will be a go in this one.


Total to watch

Los Angeles at New England (45)

There are lots of moving parts in this one, including Rob Gronkowski’s back injury, the New England weather in December, and chaos in the Rams’ defense. The number has been bet down from its 46 opening, possibly based on the questionable status of Gronkowski, but NE seems to find a way to score at home. The Patriots have played only two home games since Tom Brady’s return from suspension, and in those two they scorched the Bengals for 35 and put 24 on the board against the Seahawks. Toss in the fact that NE’s own defense has been worse than expected, and the over could fall rather easily in this one.