The Bum's 2016 NFL Regular Season Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

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NFL TRENDS

Half Time Over


1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(259) ARIZONA @(260) ATLANTA
Play OVER ATLANTA on the first half total in Home games against NFC West division opponents.
The record is 14 Overs and 2 Unders since 1992 (+11.8 units)
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1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(259) ARIZONA @(260) ATLANTA
Play OVER ATLANTA on the first half total in All games against NFC West division opponents.
The record is 24 Overs and 7 Unders since 1992 (+16.3 units)
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NFL TRENDS

Half Time Under


8:30 pm 11/27/2016
(271) KANSAS CITY @(272) DENVER
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 3 Overs and 15 Unders for the last two seasons (+11.7 units)
BET NOW!

8:30 pm 11/27/2016
(271) KANSAS CITY @(272) DENVER
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line.
The record is 1 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 11/27/2016
(257) CINCINNATI @(258) BALTIMORE
Play UNDER CINCINNATI on the first half total in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 2 Overs and 15 Unders for the last three seasons (+12.8 units)
BET NOW!

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Turkey Day edition

Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0).

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 42.5)

Vikings' stout run defense vs. Lions' lack of ground scoring

Anyone who wrote off the Vikings defense going into its Week 11 encounter with the Arizona Cardinals is probably giving that stance a second thought. The Vikings D/ST had a sensational day, generating a pair of field-length touchdowns on the way to a pivotal 30-24 victory over the Cards. And while David Johnson did plenty of damage on the ground, Minnesota remains one of the stingiest teams when it comes to rushing scores; the Lions are about to find that out first-hand.

The Vikings have limited opponents to just five rushing touchdowns through their first 10 games of the season. Johnson's one-yard scoring scamper with 4:07 remaining in the first quarter is the only rushing TD Minnesota has surrendered in its previous three games. That stretch includes a showdown against Detroit in which the Lions prevailed 22-16, but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry - a number that falls to 2.3 if you take out Theo Riddick's 42-yard run - and didn't have a rush attempt inside the 10.

That pass-heavy red-zone strategy has been the Lions' modus operandi so far this season. Detroit enters its Week 12 encounter with just four rushing touchdowns on the year - and one of those came courtesy TE Eric Ebron, who had a one-yard scoring plunge in Sunday's 26-19 plunge over Jacksonville. The Lions' ineptitude at rushing in the red zone, combined with the Vikings' aptitude at preventing rushing scores, could mean bad news for the Detroit offense in a challenging divisional tilt.

Daily fantasy watch: Vikings D/ST


Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 50)

Redskins' wretched road rush D vs. Cowboys' dominance in Big D

The latest edition of the Thanksgiving showdown between the Redskins and Cowboys takes on added significance this year, with the Cowboys riding an incredible nine-game winning streak and the Redskins battling with the New York Giants for second place in the NFC East. Yet, while both of these teams have plenty of firepower, the Cowboys enjoy a significant mismatch that grows even bigger in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium.

The Redskins rank in the lower third of the league in run defense, allowing just over 112 yards per game on the ground. That number climbs to 121 yards away from Washington, the eighth-worst road mark in football. While Washington has boasted a much more robust run defense at home - even limiting Dallas rookie superstar Ezekiel Elliott to 83 yards in a Week 2 defeat - the Redskins have been gashed for six rushing touchdowns in four road games. They'll play four of their final six games outside Washington.

That difficult stretch starts with what will easily be their toughest remaining test. Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0). Look for Elliott to exploit Washington's weaknesses on the defensive line - aided, of course, by the top offensive line in football - and make things extraordinally difficult for the Redskins in hostile territory.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott


Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (OFF)

Steelers' third-down road shutdown vs. Colts' home conversion woes

The narrative just won't go away: The Pittsburgh Steelers are a far worse offensive team on the road than they are at home. And it's hard to argue that point when you consider that, over his last 19 road games, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 19 TD passes compared to 55 over his previous 19 home games. But this entry focuses on the Steelers' impressive third-down road defense, and how it matches up favorably with a Colts team struggling to convert on third down at home.

Pittsburgh has been one of the toughest teams in the league when it comes to home teams facing third-down situations, with the Steelers allowing a minuscule 33.3-percent conversion rate. That's tied with the Miami Dolphins for the second-best rate, behind only the Oakland Raiders (28.8). And while facing the Browns in Cleveland doesn't hurt - Pittsburgh held them to 4-for-15 on third downs in Sunday's win - the Steelers have been almost as stingy against the rest of their road opponents.

That bodes poorly for the Colts, who come into the game as a slight underdog despite having home-field advantage. Only six teams have been less successful at converting third downs at home than Indianapolis, whose 37.1-percent success rate is down from the 40 percent mark it posted a season ago. Whether it's Andrew Luck or Scott Tolzien under center, look for the Colts to try and avoid having to convert third downs against a Pittsburgh defensive unit that has proven adept at forcing home teams to punt.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Donte Moncrief

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Tech Trends - Week 12
November 22, 2016


THURSDAY, NOV. 24

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at DETROIT (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Vikes 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5 TY after 19-3 vs. spread previous 22. Lions 5-2-2 vs. line last 9 at Ford Field. Lions have won and covered last three on Thanksgiving after losing and failing to cover previous nine on Turkey Day!
Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at DALLAS (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Dak 9-0-1 vs. line TY, but Skins 11-3 last 14 vs. spread in reg. season. Skins also “over” 13-2 last 15 since late 2015. Skins 9-3 vs. line last 12 in series and have won outright last two at Jerry Jones/AT&T.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at INDIANAPOLIS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Steel on 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5, Colts 8-1 last 9 as home dog. Series “over” last two years and 4-0 last four. Indy “over” 8-3 last 11.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Colts, based on “totals” and team trends.

SUNDAY, NOV. 27

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line at home TY. Bolts 3-2 as road dog TY, now 21-10-1 in role since 2011. Bolts also “over” 9-2 last 11 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at CHICAGO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears 3-7 vs. line TY, now 4-11 vs. spread last 15 on board since late 2015. Titans “over” 11-3 last 14 since late 2015.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Titans, based on Titans’ “totals” and anti-Bears trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags 2-5 vs. spread last seven as visitor. Gus Bradley also “over” 10-6 last 16. Rex Ryan 5-2 last seven vs. spread at Orchard Park.
Tech Edge: Bills and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Harbaugh “under” 9-3 since late LY. Cincy 2-8 vs. spread TY but Bengals have won last five SU in series (4-1 vs. line).
Tech Edge: Slight to “under” and Ravens, based on recent and “totals” and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards just 3-8 last eleven vs. spread, 1-3 last four on road. Falcs only 1-3 vs. line at home TY, but also “over” 8-2 this season.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at MIAMI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Dolphins win and cover last five TY, Niners 0-9 SU, 1-8 vs. line last 9 since Rams opener. Both also “over” 6-3 last 9 TY.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LOS ANGELES at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints 6-1 last seven vs. line, only L that stretch the wild loss vs. Denver. Rams 3-0-1 vs. number as visitor TY (not counting London game), and “under” 19 -7-1 since late in 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Saints, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NY GIANTS at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Winless Browns now also no covers last five TY, also “under” last three after Hue Jackson “over” 12-3 in fifteen previous as HC at Oakland (2011) and Brownies TY. Eli 4-1-1 vs. line last six TY.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs just 1-6 vs. spread last seven as host, 4-9 since LY.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cam 0-4-1 last five vs. spread away from home, but 12-6 last 18 as reg,-season dog. Raiders 1-3 vs. line at home TY, 3-9 since LY for Del Rio. Raiders also “over” 8-2 TY.
Tech Edge: Cam and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Belichick 0-5-1 vs. line against Jets since 2013, including very damaging SU loss late LY. Pats 5-1 SU and vs. line since Brady return, Jets on 2-6 spread skid. “Overs” 11-2 last 13 in series.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at DENVER (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
KC has won and covered last three away, but Andy Reid 1-5 SU, 2-4 vs. line against Broncos since moving to KCV in 2013. Kubiak on 9-3 spread run, 7-3 TY, and 5-1 last six vs. spread as host. “Unders” 8-2-1 last eleven series meetings.
Tech Edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.

MONDAY, NOV. 28
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at PHILADELPHIA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Birds 4-0 SU and vs. line at home TY, also “under” all four of those games. Pack 3-8-1 vs. line last 12 reg.-season games, and “over” last three this season.
Tech Edge: Eagles, based on team trends.

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'Dogs to Watch - Week 12
November 23, 2016

Week 11 was not a great week for large NFL underdogs to win outright as only one of the eight teams getting four points or more managed to come away with a victory. If you had followed along with my top three selections though in last week's piece, you would have hit that one winner as the Buccaneers were able to beat a Kansas City team that still looks a lot more like “pretenders” than “contenders.”

Week 12 has plenty of teams getting four points or more on the spread so rather than go through the entire list, I'm going to break it down a bit into those teams getting +4 to +6.5, and those getting +7 or more.

Sportsbook.ag Week 12 Underdogs That Qualify

Chicago Bears (+5); ML (+195)
Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5); ML (+185)
Arizona Cardinals (+4.5); ML (+177)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6); ML (+230)
Green Bay Packers (+4); ML (+165)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5); ML (+275)
San Francisco 49ers (+8); ML (+280)
LA Rams (+7); ML (+270)
Cleveland Browns (+7); ML (+260)

We will start with the bigger underdogs in LA, Cleveland, San Francisco, and Jacksonville as there is only really one team you can consider for an outright win and that's the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags let me down last week when they came up short, and they've let down plenty of NFL bettors who had high hopes for this team this season.

But Buffalo isn't exactly a spectacular group themselves and laying over a touchdown against Jacksonville is a little absurd. One day the Jaguars will finally learn out to put together a full 60 minute performance and close out victories and finishing strong down the stretch has to be their goal for building into next season.

There are some reports that HC Gus Bradley has “lost” the team and there is simply no motivation from the Jaguars players, but at some point professional pride has to kick in. If Jacksonville can find that pride this week and pair it with some solid, sustained execution, there is no reason to think they can't come out of Buffalo with an outright victory.

As far as the other teams on the list go, we've got numerous sides that entered the 2016 season as solid favorites to compete for a Super Bowl, only to have the year go awry for one reason or another.

Cincinnati, Arizona, and Green Bay all received plenty of support to make a championship run this season and at the moment, it looks like only the Packers have an outside shot of even making the playoffs.

All three are likely to get a fair share of ML support from bettors this week at these underdog odds, but of the three, I'd only be comfortable in taking Green Bay on the ML.

Green Bay is in Philadelphia to take on an Eagles team that has started to come back down to earth. For as bad as the Packers have been defensively thanks to a laundry list of injuries they are dealing with on that side of the ball, Philly isn't going to be able to put up a plethora of points against them like recent opponents have.

Also, while Philly is a much better team at home with wins over the likes of Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and Atlanta already, this was still an Eagles team that had a season win total in the 6 to 6.5 range and will continue to play to that projected standard.

Aaron Rodgers and company know they've got to get it going now if they want any hope of making the playoffs and as long as their defense can hold on even a little bit, the Packers at +165 on the ML does have some value.

As far as the Bears and Buccaneers go, Chicago just lost QB Jay Cutler for the year and you wonder about the fallout from that. Brian Hoyer isn't a huge downgrade in that regard and the Titans aren't great, so the Bears do have a chance if they don't let losing Cutler for the year affect them much.

I'm not sure how they would given that they are 2-8 SU and things couldn't get much worse, but with Seattle in Tampa to play the Bucs, the Bears would definitely be the better ML option of the two teams.

There is no question that we will see at least a couple of these NFL underdogs on this list pull off upsets this week, but if you are looking to narrow it down somewhat, keep the Bears (+195), Packers (+165), and Jaguars (+275) on the short list.

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Total Talk - Thanksgiving
November 23, 2016

Based on Sunday’s opening numbers, this year’s Thanksgiving Day card was expected to start off slow with a slugfest and end with a couple shootouts but a key injury will likely simmer the nightcap in Indianapolis. Two of three games on tap are divisional matchups and all six of the teams in action are very well alive in this year’s playoff hunt.

Let’s break down the holiday totals.

Minnesota at Detroit (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)

The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series, which includes their first encounter this season in Week 9. Detroit rallied for an improbable 22-16 overtime win at Minnesota and even though the game went to the extra session, the ‘under’ (42) was never in doubt. The pace of the game was slow as both clubs combined for only 21 possessions, which included the game-winning drive by Detroit in overtime.

Minnesota and Detroit have both leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season yet both clubs bring different total streaks into this matchup. After watching the ‘over’ begin 4-2, the Lions have seen their last four games go ‘under’ the total and the defense has an allowed an average of 18 points per game during this run and the offense (20.3 PPG) hasn’t looked that sharp.

Meanwhile, the Vikings started the season with a 6-2 ‘under’ mark but the ‘over’ has cashed in their last two games.

The Vikings are ranked last in total offense (293.8 YPG) and those numbers have been worse on the road (276.6 YPG). Most would agree that Minnesota has the better defense in this matchup and it should hold Detroit in check. However, the Vikings have been diced up on the ground in its last three games (97, 128, 135 yards).

The total opened 43 and has been bet down to as low as 41 as of Wednesday. Detroit has seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 in its last nine games played on Thanksgiving Day and it’s helped the cause the last four seasons by averaging 37.5 PPG.

For what it’s worth, the NFC North has played six divisional games this season and the four teams have combined for a 5-1 ‘under’ mark.

Washington at Dallas (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The late afternoon Thanksgiving Day contest features another rematch as Washington will look to avenge a 27-23 home loss to Dallas in Week 2. The ‘over’ (47.5) connected late in the fourth quarter of that game and is now on a 3-1 run in this series. The Redskins moved the ball (432 yards) at will in the loss and if it wasn’t for three short field goals (36, 29, 22), they likely would’ve captured the victory.

Washington has been a great ‘over’ bet all season (8-2) but its two worst offensive outings of the season did come on the road. One key to the number of high tickets has been the Redskins inability to slow anybody down in the red zone. They’ve allowed 26 touchdowns and only managed to stifle teams to 13 field goals. Offensively, they’ve had the opposite issue as they’ve settled for too many field goals (23) in comparison to touchdowns (26).

Dallas has leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season and you can point to the improved defense as a key reason. The Cowboys “bend but don’t break” unit has been great in the red zone and they’re only allowing 18.7 PPG, which is a major improvement from the past two seasons (27 PPG, 23.4 PPG).

The total for Thursday opened 51 and has jumped up to 52 at a few betting shops and that number could be a tad inflated if you go on past history. In the last 20 meetings, the pair have only seen two of their encounters listed in the fifties and both games went ‘under.’

The Cowboys have been diced up recently in the holiday matchup, allowing 32 PPG the last four years and that includes a 38-31 win by Washington in the 2012 encounter. Based on the stats mentioned above, this year’s Dallas defensive unit is underrated and going against the betting public (86% Over) is never a bad idea.

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

This game had all the makings for a classic back-and-forth contest but with Colts QB Andrew Luck (concussion) expected to miss, the oddsmakers are expecting Pittsburgh (-8) to cruise for the second straight week as a road favorite. The total opened 54 and has dropped to 48 as of Wednesday afternoon.

Scott Tolzien is expected to get the start for Indianapolis and nobody knows what to expect from the backup. He’s only started two games in his four-year career and his numbers (1 TD, 5 INTs) are less than stellar.

Pittsburgh’s offense appears to be coming around, scoring 54 combined points the last two weeks and it should be able to move the ball on a Colts defense (397 YPG) that is third worst in the league. Plus, the Indianapolis defense is ranked 29th in takeaways and the secondary only has three interceptions.

Another reason to lean high is that the Steelers defense (363.6 YPG) doesn’t compare to units we’ve seen in previous seasons and they’ve been very suspect on the road (22 PPG).

Indy has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 this season but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in the first five games at Lucas Oil Stadium. Pittsburgh is 7-3 to the ‘under’ and that includes a 4-1 mark on the road. Make a note that the Steelers have played in two primetime games this season and they scored 38 and 43 points and the ‘over’ connected easily in each contest.

This will be the 11th season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving. The ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in the first 10 matchups and home teams have posted a 6-4 mark as well.

Fearless Predictions

As I’ve said before in past pieces on this holiday, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Indianapolis 48

Best Under: Dallas-Washington 52

Best Team Total: Over Pittsburgh 28

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):

Under 50 ½ Minnesota-Detroit
Under 61 Washington-Dallas
Over 39 Pittsburgh-Indianapolis

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Thanksgiving Day Tips
November 23, 2016

Vikings at Lions (-2 ½, 41 ½) – 12:30 PM EST – CBS

Minnesota
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

Detroit
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

LAST WEEK

The Vikings snapped a four-game losing streak in last Sunday’s 30-24 home triumph over the Cardinals as two-point favorites. Minnesota’s offense has struggled all season as the Vikings relied on an interception return and a kickoff return for touchdowns to account for nearly half their points. The Vikings racked up 217 yards offensively, but intercepted Carson Palmer twice to improve to 4-1 at home this season.

The Lions won their sixth game this season when trailing at some point in the fourth quarter, knocking off the Jaguars, 26-19. Detroit picked up a late cover as 5 ½-point favorites with a field goal in the final minute as the Lions returned a punt and an interception for scores. Detroit’s rushing attack was limited to 14 yards on 21 carries, while quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 278 yards and has thrown only one total interception in five games at Ford Field (none in last four).

SERIES HISTORY

These two NFC North rivals met in Week 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium as Detroit left Minnesota with a 22-16 overtime victory as 4 ½-point underdogs. Stafford connected with wide receiver Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in OT to give Detroit only its third win at Minnesota in the last 10 trips. The Vikings outgained the Lions, 337-311, the only time Minnesota has outgained an opponent in the past four contests. Since 2012, these teams have split four matchups at Ford Field, as the Vikings beat the Lions last season in Detroit, 28-19.

GETTING DEFENSIVE

The Lions are riding a four-game UNDER streak, while not allowing more than 20 points in any of their past four contests. Since the start of last season, Detroit has hit the OVER in eight of its last 12 games at Ford Field, but five of the past six matchups between the Lions and Vikings have finished UNDER the total.

TURKEY TIME

From 2004-2012, Detroit dropped nine consecutive games on Thanksgiving. However, the Lions have turned things around lately by winning three straight on Turkey Day, including a 45-14 blowout of the Eagles in 2015. The Vikings are visiting Detroit on Thanksgiving for the first time since 1995 when the Lions outlasted Minnesota in a 44-38 shootout.

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Minnesota

S. Bradford – Total Completions
23 – OVER (-110)
23 – UNDER (-110)

S. Bradford – Total Touchdowns + Interceptions
2 – OVER (+130)
2 – UNDER (-150)

S. Diggs – Total Receiving Yards
75 ½ - OVER (-110)
75 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Detroit

M. Stafford – Total Gross Passing Yards
255 ½ - OVER (-110)
255 ½ - UNDER (-110)

M. Stafford – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-120)
1 ½ - UNDER (EVEN)

M. Jones, Jr. – Total Receiving Yards
51 ½ - OVER (-110)
51 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Redskins at Cowboys (-7, 52) – 4:30 PM EST – FOX

Washington
Record: 6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

Dallas
Record: 9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 11/2

LAST WEEK

The Redskins began the season at 0-2, but Washington has won six of its last eight games to move into the second Wild Card position in the NFC. Last Sunday night, the Redskins chased the Packers, 42-24 to score a season-high in points, while covering as three-point favorites. Washington racked up over 500 yards of offense, including 373 yards and three touchdown passes from quarterback Kirk Cousins. Rookie running back Robert Kelley found the end zone three times as the former Tulane standout eclipsed the 87-yard mark for the third straight contest.

Dallas continues to win behind its rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott as the Cowboys pulled away from the Ravens, 27-17 as seven-point home favorites. Prescott picked up his fifth consecutive multi-touchdown passing game with three touchdown tosses, including two to wide receiver Dez Bryant. Elliott finished three yards shy of 100 yards rushing as the Rookie of the Year candidate leads the NFL in rushing with 1,102 yards. Since losing the opener to the Giants, the Cowboys have won and covered their last four games at AT&T Stadium.

SERIES HISTORY

The road team has won each of the past six meetings between these NFC East rivals, including a Week 2 triumph by Dallas at FedEx Field. The Cowboys rallied past the Redskins, 27-23 to cash outright as 3 ½-point underdogs, as the two teams went back and forth after Dallas built an early 10-0 lead. Former Redskins’ running back Alfred Morris gave the Cowboys a 27-23 lead with less than five minutes left on a four-yard touchdown run. Both quarterbacks played well as Cousins threw for 364 yards and a touchdown, while Prescott picked up his first NFL win by racking up 292 yards through the air.

OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

The Redskins have been one of the top OVER teams in the league by cashing in eight of 10 games, but both UNDERS have come away from FedEx Field. The Cowboys are riding a 5-2 run to the UNDER the last seven contests, including 2-1 the last three at home.

TURKEY TIME

Dallas rode a four-game winning streak from 2006-2010 on Thanksgiving Day, but the Cowboys have lost four of their last six on this holiday. The Panthers ripped the Cowboys last Thanksgiving, 33-14, the second straight Turkey Day defeat by double-digits. Washington shocked Dallas in its previous Thanksgiving meeting in 2012 by a 38-31 count as Robert Griffin III torched the Cowboys for 304 yards and four touchdown passes.

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Washington

K. Cousins – Total Completions
26 – OVER (-110)
26 – UNDER (-110)

K. Cousins – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-150)
1 ½ - UNDER (+130)

J. Crowder – Total Receiving Yards
53 ½ - OVER (-110)
53 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Dallas

D. Prescott – Total Completions
21 ½ - OVER (-110)
21 ½ - UNDER (-110)

D. Prescott – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-150)
1 ½ - UNDER (+130)

E. Elliott – Total Rushing Yards
105 ½ - OVER (-110)
105 ½ - UNDER (-110)

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Turkey Day edition

Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0).

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 42.5)

Vikings' stout run defense vs. Lions' lack of ground scoring

Anyone who wrote off the Vikings defense going into its Week 11 encounter with the Arizona Cardinals is probably giving that stance a second thought. The Vikings D/ST had a sensational day, generating a pair of field-length touchdowns on the way to a pivotal 30-24 victory over the Cards. And while David Johnson did plenty of damage on the ground, Minnesota remains one of the stingiest teams when it comes to rushing scores; the Lions are about to find that out first-hand.

The Vikings have limited opponents to just five rushing touchdowns through their first 10 games of the season. Johnson's one-yard scoring scamper with 4:07 remaining in the first quarter is the only rushing TD Minnesota has surrendered in its previous three games. That stretch includes a showdown against Detroit in which the Lions prevailed 22-16, but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry - a number that falls to 2.3 if you take out Theo Riddick's 42-yard run - and didn't have a rush attempt inside the 10.

That pass-heavy red-zone strategy has been the Lions' modus operandi so far this season. Detroit enters its Week 12 encounter with just four rushing touchdowns on the year - and one of those came courtesy TE Eric Ebron, who had a one-yard scoring plunge in Sunday's 26-19 plunge over Jacksonville. The Lions' ineptitude at rushing in the red zone, combined with the Vikings' aptitude at preventing rushing scores, could mean bad news for the Detroit offense in a challenging divisional tilt.

Daily fantasy watch: Vikings D/ST


Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 50)

Redskins' wretched road rush D vs. Cowboys' dominance in Big D

The latest edition of the Thanksgiving showdown between the Redskins and Cowboys takes on added significance this year, with the Cowboys riding an incredible nine-game winning streak and the Redskins battling with the New York Giants for second place in the NFC East. Yet, while both of these teams have plenty of firepower, the Cowboys enjoy a significant mismatch that grows even bigger in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium.

The Redskins rank in the lower third of the league in run defense, allowing just over 112 yards per game on the ground. That number climbs to 121 yards away from Washington, the eighth-worst road mark in football. While Washington has boasted a much more robust run defense at home - even limiting Dallas rookie superstar Ezekiel Elliott to 83 yards in a Week 2 defeat - the Redskins have been gashed for six rushing touchdowns in four road games. They'll play four of their final six games outside Washington.

That difficult stretch starts with what will easily be their toughest remaining test. Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0). Look for Elliott to exploit Washington's weaknesses on the defensive line - aided, of course, by the top offensive line in football - and make things extraordinally difficult for the Redskins in hostile territory.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott


Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (OFF)

Steelers' third-down road shutdown vs. Colts' home conversion woes

The narrative just won't go away: The Pittsburgh Steelers are a far worse offensive team on the road than they are at home. And it's hard to argue that point when you consider that, over his last 19 road games, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 19 TD passes compared to 55 over his previous 19 home games. But this entry focuses on the Steelers' impressive third-down road defense, and how it matches up favorably with a Colts team struggling to convert on third down at home.

Pittsburgh has been one of the toughest teams in the league when it comes to home teams facing third-down situations, with the Steelers allowing a minuscule 33.3-percent conversion rate. That's tied with the Miami Dolphins for the second-best rate, behind only the Oakland Raiders (28.8). And while facing the Browns in Cleveland doesn't hurt - Pittsburgh held them to 4-for-15 on third downs in Sunday's win - the Steelers have been almost as stingy against the rest of their road opponents.

That bodes poorly for the Colts, who come into the game as a slight underdog despite having home-field advantage. Only six teams have been less successful at converting third downs at home than Indianapolis, whose 37.1-percent success rate is down from the 40 percent mark it posted a season ago. Whether it's Andrew Luck or Scott Tolzien under center, look for the Colts to try and avoid having to convert third downs against a Pittsburgh defensive unit that has proven adept at forcing home teams to punt.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Donte Moncrief

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 12

Thurs – Nov. 24

Minnesota at Detroit, 12:30 PM ET
Minnesota: 9-2 ATS as an underdog
Detroit: 14-31 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Washington at Dallas, 4:30 PM ET
Washington: 4-13 ATS after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8
Dallas: 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis, 8:30 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 1-5 ATS off a win against a division rival
Indianapolis: 11-1 ATS when playing on a Thursday

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's games

Vikings (6-4) @ Lions (6-4)— Battle for first place in NFC North. Detroit kicked 58-yard FG on last play of regulation, won first meeting 22-16 in OT at Minnesota three weeks ago. This rivalry has been swept in four of last five years; Lions are 7-5 in last 12 games with Vikings, 4-2 in last six played here. Minnesota snapped 4-game skid with win over Arizona; they’ve scored a TD on defense/special teams in 4 of their 6 wins. Vikings lost last three road games, by 11-10-6 points- they’re 1-1 as road dogs. All 10 Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; Lions trailed all 10 games in 4th quarter- they’re 4-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Last four Detroit games stayed; under total; under is 4-1 in Viking road games.

Redskins (6-3-1) @ Cowboys (9-1)— Two hot teams; Washington is 6-1-1 in last eight games, Dallas has won/covered nine straight games. Really short week for Redskins, who have long road trip, plus they played Sunday NIGHT. This is only 4th true road game for Washington; they are 2-1 in first three, all decided by 6 or less points- two of those were in New Jersey/Baltimore, very short trips- they also had neutral field game in London. Dallas hasn’t lost since Opening Night vs Giants; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Cowboy opponents are just 8 for last 28 on third down. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Over is 4-1 in last five Redskin games, 2-5 in last seven Dallas games.

Steelers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5)— Colt QB Luck had concussion in win over Titans; check status for this game; his backup is Tolzien (0-1-1 as NFL starter, with ’13 Packers). Pitt is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last two 51-34/45-10; they outgained Colts 522-240 in LY’s game. Steelers won three of last four visits here, but last one was in 2011. Pitt snapped 4-game skid with lackluster 24-9 win in Cleveland; they’re 2-3 on road, with losses by 31-15-7 points. Only one of 10 Steeler games was decided by less than 7 points. Indy won three of last four games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2-1 vs spread as an underdog this year. NFC North teams are 8-18 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-10 on road. AFC South teams are 13-14 vs spread, 7-7 at home. Steelers allowed 16 or less points in their wins, 21+ in their losses.

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NFL

Thursday, November 24

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Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Vikings at Lions
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The Lions beat the Vikings 22-16 in overtime in Week 9, as Matthew Stafford hit Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in the extra period.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 43)

A showdown for the top spot in the NFC North takes place Thursday, when the Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings in their traditional Thanksgiving Day contest. Detroit has won five of its last six games to surge into a tie atop the division with Minnesota, which snapped its four-game skid last week.

The Lions beat the Vikings 22-16 in overtime in Week 9, as Matt Prater made a game-tying 58-yard field goal at the end of regulation and Matthew Stafford hit Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in the extra period. The late-game heroics were nothing new for Detroit, which has had all 10 of its games decided by seven points or fewer - with its six wins coming by a total of 24. "I think they've done a great job at the end of ballgames, including the one we played,” Vikings coach Mike Zimmer told reporters. “The biggest thing is once you start winning, you develop confidence, and that's what they've done at the end of ballgames." Minnesota’s confidence was trending in the opposite direction with four straight losses before holding on for a 30-24 home triumph over Arizona on Sunday.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 2.5-point home favorites over their division rivals from Minnesota and, as of Tuesday evening, that line hasn't moved. The total hit the board at 42.5 and was bumped up to 43 on Monday morning. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - CB M. Alexander (Probable, shoulder), LB C. Greenway (Questionable, personal), S A. Sendejo (Questionable, illness), WR S. Diggs (Questionable, knee), DT T. Johnson (Questionable, illness), CB T. Newman (Questionable, neck), CB M. Sherels (Questionable, ribs), LB E. Kendricks (Questionable, hip), CB C. Munnerlyn (Questionable, ankle), QB T. Heinicke (Questionable, foot), DT S. Floyd (Questionable, knee), C Z. Kerin (Questionable, hand), S H. Smith (Questionable, ankle), RB A. Peterson (Mid December, knee), G M. Harris (Questionable, illness), T J. Long (I-R, achilles), T A. Smith (I-R, tricep), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr. (I-R, leg).

Lions - RB T. Riddick (Probable, ankle), CB A. Barnes (Questionable, hamstring), S D. Carey (Questionable, hamstring), DE E. Ansah (Questionable, ankle), C G. Glasgow (Questionable, ankle), DT K. Thornton (Questionable, foot), LB D. Levy (Out, quadricep), DE A. Bryant (Elig Week 13, suspension), TE B. Pettigrew (Doubtful, knee), RB A. Abdullah (Questionable, foot), TE C. Wick (I-R, knee), TE T. Wright (I-R, knee), LB J. Bostic (I-R, foot), LS J. Landes (I-R, shoulder), CB I. Wells (I-R, knee), WR R. Spadola (I-R, pectoral).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Minnesota’s league-worst offense had another rough showing last week with 217 total yards, but a defensive score and a special-teams touchdown helped make up for it. The Vikings could be without a major offensive weapon in Stefon Diggs, who has averaged 10 catches over his last four games and ranks second in the NFC with 67 receptions but is questionable with a knee injury. Minnesota’s third-ranked pass defense will be put to the test but is coming off a strong outing in which it limited Arizona to 155 yards.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Detroit has become increasingly one-dimensional on offense, all but abandoning the run in recent weeks and finishing with just 14 rushing yards against Jacksonville on Sunday. Running back Theo Riddick is nursing an ankle injury but is expected to play, but he is a bigger factor for Stafford and the passing game than the ground attack. The defense has been excellent of late, holding the last three opponents to an average of 297 total yards and forcing three turnovers last week.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Lions are picking 54 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 62 percent of the totals wagers.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, November 24

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Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Steelers at Colts
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Roethlisberger threw four TD passes as Pittsburgh hammered Indianapolis 45-10 last season, another game in which the Colts played without Luck.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+8, 47.5)

Back-to-back wins have vaulted the Indianapolis Colts back into the playoff picture, but they are nearly certain to be without Andrew Luck when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. Luck, who is having another strong campaign as he ranks fourth in the NFL with 2,827 yards passing with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, entered concussion protocol after guiding Indianapolis past Tennessee last week, and coach Chuck Pagano doesn't believe he'll be cleared in time to play.

Scott Tolzien, who has played in six games in his six-year career, will get the start should Luck not be ready. Tolzien is 56-of-91 for 721 yards with a touchdown and five interceptions in the NFL. Pittsburgh not only snapped its four-game losing streak with a win over lowly Cleveland last time out, but it jumped into a first-place tie in the AFC North in the process. Le'Veon Bell rushed for 146 yards and a score as the Steelers sent the Browns to their 11th straight loss on Sunday.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point road favorites but news of Andrew Luck's injury drove that line all of the way up to 8.5. That number came down slightly to 8 on Wednesday morning. The total opened at 53.5 but was also impacted by Luck's absense and dropped to 48 on Tuesday. Check out the complete history here.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - S J. Dangerfield (Questionable, groin), S S. Thomas (Questionable, groin), TE X. Grimble (Questionable, quadricep), RB D. Williams (Out, knee), WR D. Heyward-Bey (Out, foot), WR M. Bryant (Out For Season, suspension), WR M. Wheaton (I-R, shoulder) CB S. Golson (I-R, foot), DE C. Heyward (I-R, pectoral), LB S. Johnson (I-R, ankle), C C. Wallace (I-R, knee), T R. Harris (I-R, shin), G C. Manhart (I-R, undisclosed), T J. Hawkins (I-R, shoulder), C V. Ume-Ezeoke (I-R, undisclosed.

Colts - CB R. Melvin (Probable, back), DT A. Jones (Probable, knee), CB P. Robinson (Probable, groin), CB V. Davis (Questionable, ankle), S C. Geathers (Questionable, concussion), QB A. Luck (Doubtful, concussion), DE K. Langford (I-R, knee), WR Q. Bray (I-R, ankle), LB T. Cole (Questionable, back), G H. Thornton (I-R, foot), S A. Williamson (I-R, knee).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Bell has been an all-purpose monster since returning from a three-game suspension to start the season, but Sunday marked the first time since Week 4 that he gained over 100 yards on the ground for the Steelers, who rank 23rd in rushing offense. Bell's success took some of the burden off Ben Roethlisberger, who was held without a touchdown pass in a contest which surprisingly was still in doubt until Javon Hargrave recovered a fumble for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Roethlisberger threw four TD passes as Pittsburgh hammered Indianapolis 45-10 last season, another game in which the Colts played without Luck, and the Steelers - who have won the last two matchups by a combined 45 points - cautioned his counterpart not to play. "I will tell him, and this has nothing to do with football, but just to be smart," Roethlisberger told reporters. "The brain is nothing to mess with. He is young and has a long career ahead of himself."

ABOUT THE COLTS (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Clearing concussion protocol is a huge hurdle for Luck in the short week, and the fact that the Colts don't play again until Dec. 5 against the New York Jets leaves it likely they'll let both Luck and safety Clayton Geathers use the extra time to get well. Geathers also was placed in concussion protocol after Sunday's game and cornerback Vontae Davis is questionable with an ankle injury, leaving the Colts' passing defense in an ominous situation against Roethlisberger, who has thrown 10 touchdown passes in his last two games against Indianapolis. The Colts may try to lean more on a ground game led by Frank Gore (642 yards, four touchdowns), but they rank 25th in the league in rushing.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
* Colts are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games.
* Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Steelers are picking 66 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 59 percent of the totals wagers.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFL’s top 10, bottom three teams…….

32) Browns— Next weekend will be a little more fun for Cleveland fans; its the Browns’ bye week.

31) 49ers— Lost last nine games; play red-hot Dolphins in Miami this week. Chances are that’ll be ten losses in a row.

30) Jaguars— Lost last five games, last three by 7 or less points.

10) Dolphins— They’ve got lot of good receivers; was mystified why they had less than 100 yards of offense thru 53:00 in LA last week. Not a big Tannehill fan, but he’s on a roll right now.

9) Falcons— Someone is going to give Atlanta OC Kyle Shanahan a head coaching job next season; will his dad come along to help out?

8) Giants— Seven wins by a total of 27 points; expect to see them pummel Cleveland this week or I’ll list them as a suspect for a quick exit in January.

7) Broncos— 7-0 when they score 20+ points, 0-3 when they do not. Still think QB Siemian is a suspect, but as long as he doesn’t screw things up, he’s OK for now. Their defense is that good.

6) Redskins— Jay Gruden is an underrated coach; he’s helped make a dysfunctional franchise successful. Washington took lot of grief for drafting Cousins the same year they traded the farm to draft RGIII; seems like a good idea now.

5) Chiefs— 18-4 in last 22 games, but offense has struggled last three weeks. Big game in Denver Sunday; NBC chose that game instead of Patriots-Jets.

4) Seahawks— Drafting is such an inexact science; Russell Wilson, Joe Montana were 3rd round picks, Tom Brady a 6th round pick. Look at Dak Prescott; he was a 4th round pick after a DUI a month before the draft. Then look at some of the stiffs drafted first. Go figure.

3) Raiders— Jack Del Rio was once the catcher on USC’s baseball team, when one of the pitchers was a guy named Mark McGwire.

2) Patriots— Will Brady/Belichick retire at same time? Imagine the poor bastards who would have to step into those big shoes? When does Jimmy Garoppolo hit the free agent market?

1) Cowboys— Very seldom does a team win/cover nine games in a row, and never, ever with a rookie QB. Interesting game today with the Redskins.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 24

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at DET 12:30 PM

MIN +2.0 *****

U 42.0 *****

WAS at DAL 04:30 PM

WAS +6.0 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY )

O 52.0 ***** ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )

PIT at IND 08:30 PM

IND +8.0 *****

O 50.0 *****

[Udog]

Happy Thanksgiving to the internet's MVP!! Have a great one, Bum! Good luck today! Thank you for the great card this morning. My wife and I both really enjoyed it!

[StarDust Bum]

Your welcome Dog..............

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday’s six-pack

Six most popular picks in Week 12 of the Westgate Super Contest

— Tennessee Titans, -4.5 (514)

— Atlanta Falcons, -4 (480)

— Washington Redskins +7 (405)— W

— Baltimore Ravens -4 (387)

— Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (380)

— Oakland Raiders -3 (379)

Season record: 23-43-2

Sunday’s List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday

13) Ohio State 30, Michigan 27 OT— Urban Meyer is a walking advertisement for hypertension. Please smile now and then; he was like that in his year on TV too, totally humorless. He made broadcast partner Chris Spielman sound like Carrot Top and Spielman is no barrel of laughs, either. Meyer must be a joy to be around every day. Great coach, wins a ton of games, but if you do not enjoy it, what good is it?

Wolverines fumbled in red zone, threw a pick-6, they’ll be sick about this game for months, maybe years. Not sure how Ohio State can make a 4-team national playoff if they couldn’t make a 2-team playoff in their own league, but I could be wrong about that.

12) Colorado 27, Utah 22— Last 8 years, Buffs were 11-58 in conference games; they are now in the Pac-12 title game against Washington next Friday.

11 and 58 for eight years. 8-1 this year. Tremendous coaching job by Mike MacIntyre.

11) LSU 54, Texas A&M 39— I’m trying to process this: LSU fired Les Miles and replaced him with freakin’ Ed Orgeron, who is beloved by people around him but went 10-25 in three years as head coach at Ole Miss (3-21 in SEC games!!!!). If you’re an LSU fan and read the book Meat Market, about Orgeron’s recruiting efforts at Ole Miss, you’re probably a little queasy today. Maybe a lot queasy.

10) Two scores from around the country Saturday:
Pittsburgh 76, Syracuse 61
South Carolina 64, Syracuse 50

One of these was a football game, one was a basketball game. Neither was good for the Orange.

When college football has its Signing Day in February, the first thing I’m going to look at is how any defensive players Dino Babers signs for Syracuse- they need a lot of them.

9) Kentucky 41, Louisville 38— Lamar Jackson fumbled on the Kentucky 10 with under 2:00 left in a tie game; Cardinals lost their last two games, allowing 77 points. This snaps a five-game winning streak against their in-state rivals.

8) Memphis 48, Houston 44— Coach Herman gets really rich in Austin, Cougars players get to go to the Boca Raton Bowl or the Bahamas Bowl, not exactly what they expected after starting this season with an upset of Oklahoma.

You can do worse than a few days in the Bahamas, but a New Year’s Day bowl was what they wanted.

7) TCU 31, Texas 9— Charlie Strong gets $10.5M to go away after Texas told him to take a hike with three straight losses to TCU and a 24-26 record in four years with the Longhorns.

6) USC 45, Notre Dame 27— Trojans scored two TD’s in 0:17 span of second quarter, one on a punt return, one on a pick-6. Adoree’ Jackson scored three TDs and he is mostly a DB. Late at night, while I’ve been typing this, there is stuff on TV about Brian Kelly looking for a new job.

I’m guessing the Notre Dame people will write him a very nice letter of recommendation if he wants to leave.

5) Navy 75, SMU 31— Middies ran for 496 yards, have now scored 141 points in their last two games, all while throwing 14 passes. Wouldn’t want to be the team Navy plays in a bowl; going to be a long afternoon for whoever that is.

4) California 36, UCLA 10— Vincent Rivera is a Cal WR and Ron Rivera’s nephew; Coach Rivera was on the field for Senior Day ceremonies. Ron Rivera’s Panthers play in nearby Oakland today; think Carolina requested to be in the Bay Area this weekend, or was this just a really fortunate coincidence?

3) Idaho 38, South Alabama 31– I’m pretty sure this is the Vandals’ last year of I-A football and they’re going to a bowl game; good for them. Idaho’s QB is Matt Linehan, whose dad Scott is OC for the Dallas Cowboys. Been a terrific year for both father and son.

2) Vanderbilt 45, Tennessee 34— Commodores become bowl eligible with this win; they actually won their last two bowls, by 14-17 points. Vandy is now 3-2 in its last five games vs Tennessee, after a 1-14 stretch against the Vols.

This is where I’m supposed to write something unkind about Vols’ coach Butch Jones, but I’ll politely decline. I’m guessing he’ll take enough grief on talk radio for the next nine months or so.

1— Florida State 31, Florida 13— Seminoles didn’t have Senior Night at their last home game, they had it when they played Boston College; Jimbo Fisher didn’t want any distractions for any of the real important games, like this one.

Florida State defense had allowed 450+ TY in five of last nine games before this one, but they held Florida to 191 yards and 0-12 on third down conversions. Great night for the Seminole defense.