NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 29 - Monday, October 3)

[Udog]

Betting the fave has been the play in NFL London games

The Jacksonville Jaguars play in London for the fourth consecutive year. They are 1-2 SU/ATS in the previous three games.

The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars will square off at Wembley Stadium in Week 4 as the NFL's International Series contines with its first of three games in London, England this season and with the line currently Bills -2.5, bettors should make note as the fave has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 games in jolly ol' England.

This season marks the tenth consecutive that the NFL will hold a game in London, England and is the fourth consecutive year the Jags have hopped across the pond. The New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams play at the first game at Twickenham Stadium in Week 7, while Washington will face the Cincinnati Bengals back at Wembley in Week 8.

There are a couple of trends through the first 14 games in London to bear in mind if you're going to make a wager on the Colts-Jags game this weekend.

The favorite covered the spread in two of the three games in England last season and, as previously mentioned, is 9-3 ATS (75 percent) in the last 12 games. Faves are 9-5 ATS all-time in 14 games played in England.

Last season, the Jags beat the Bills 34-31, covering as 4.5-point pups, while the New York Jets topped the Miami Dolphins 27-14 as 2.5-point faves and the Kansas City Chiefs thumped the Detroit Lions 45-10 as 3-point faves.

If you're looking at totals, the over/under count is 8-6 (57.1 percent) in the 14 games and the over has cashed in five of the past seven games across the Atlantic.

The total in this weekend's matchup opened is currently 49.

[Udog]

Essential Week 4 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

The Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the division rival Rams.

Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us and with so many games on the slate it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the schedule.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3, 50.5)

* Turnovers are the clear concern for Carolina, as Cam Newton has thrown as many interceptions - five - as touchdown passes. The Panthers still are moving the ball on the ground, even with Fozzy Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne filling in for Jonathan Stewart (hamstring), and facing a porous Atlanta secondary could help Newton and the passing game get going. The defense has been solid, ranking third in the league in total defense, but too often has been put in difficult situations due to turnovers.

* Atlanta’s offense is firing on all cylinders, as Ryan has passed for 970 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception while Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are a formidable backfield duo. Freeman had a career-high 207 yards from scrimmage last week (152 rushing, 55 receiving) and Coleman punched in three touchdowns. There is plenty of cause for concern on the other side of the ball, though, as the Falcons rank 30th in total defense.

LINE HISTORY: The Falcons opened this NFC South showdown as 3.5-point home pups, but have been bet to +3. The total opened at an even 50 and has been bet up to 50.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Falcons last seven home games.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 46)

* Derek Carr had a field day against the Ravens last year, throwing for a career-high 351 yards and three touchdowns. Oakland's high-powered offense is ranked second in the league as it is averaging 436 yards and 26.7 points per contest. Oakland could be without Nate Allen for the matchup as the safety did not participate in Thursday's practice after being limited the previous day due to a quadriceps injury.

* The Ravens have had few problems with the Raiders, winning six of the eight overall meetings and four straight before dropping a 37-33 decision at Oakland last September. Baltimore will have another weapon to help contain Oakland quarterback Derek Carr as Pro Bowl linebacker Elvis Dumervil will make his season debut after missing the team's first three games due to a setback with his surgically repaired foot.

LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened this game as 3.5-point home faves and have been bet up to -4. The total opened at 46.5 and has been bet down to 46. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Ravens are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Raiders last four versus AFC opponents.
* Under is 5-1 in Ravens last six home games.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+3, 48)

* Matthew Stafford threw for 703 yards and seven touchdowns in last year's sweep of the Bears and has formed a post-Calvin Johnson connection this season with Marvin Jones, who has an NFL-best 408 yards receiving. Stafford went for 385 yards and three scores and Jones reeled in six receptions for a career-high 205 yards and two TDs in the Lions' 34-27 setback at division-rival Green Bay on Sunday.

* Chicago is expected to turn to Brian Hoyer for the second straight outing with Jay Cutler nursing a sprained right thumb. Hoyer completed 30 of 49 passes for 317 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears' 31-17 setback at Dallas on Sunday. Rookie Jordan Howard will try to ignite Chicago's 30th-ranked rushing attack and could find room to roam versus a Detroit squad surrendering a league-high 5.1 yards per carry this season and 199 yards on the ground last week.

LINE HISTORY: The Bears opened this games as 3-point road dogs and the line has yet to move off that number. Meanwhile, the has seen plenty of action. Oddsmakers opened the number at 46 and has since been bet up two points to the current number of 48. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus NFC North opponents.
* Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Bears last five games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4.5, 40.5)

* Tennessee’s offense has moved the ball well on the ground, but the passing game has left much to be desired. Mariota has as many interceptions – four – as touchdown passes and hasn’t provided enough balance to complement DeMarco Murray, who has accounted for three touchdowns (one rushing, two receiving). An improved defense has kept the Titans in games, holding all three opponents under 250 passing yards, but the club has forced just two turnovers and had some trouble stopping the run.

* The Texans will be without star defensive end J.J. Watt, who was placed on injured reserve Wednesday after aggravating the back injury that required surgery over the summer. Quarterback Brock Osweiler isn’t putting up big numbers in his first season in Houston, throwing four interceptions and just three touchdown passes despite a dangerous receiving corps. The offense should be fine, though, if Osweiler can limit his mistakes, as Lamar Miller leads a strong rushing attack that has moved the ball well but has not yet found the end zone.

LINE HISTORY: The Texans opened this game as 6.5-point home favorites, but ever since the news of Watt's injury came out bettors have been fading Houston, moving the line to Texans -4.5. The total opened at 40.5 and hasn't moved off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 3-21-3 ATS in their last 27 versus AFC South opponents.
* Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last five versus AFC South opponents.
* Under is 6-0 in Texans last six home games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Houston.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7, 43)

* Although Rex Ryan said a reason for firing Roman was his inability to get the team's top playmakers more involved, the absence of star wideout Sammy Watkins forced Buffalo to rely on a ground game that produced 208 yards rushing versus Arizona. LeSean McCoy nearly matched his total from the first two weeks combined by rushing for 110 yards and a pair of touchdowns, and he rushed for more than 80 yards in both matchups against New England last season. Watkins did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and is not expected to do so on Friday so McCoy could be in line for another heavy workload.

* It's unclear if Jimmy Garoppolo or rookie Jacoby Brissett -- both dealing with injuries -- will be under center for New England and the decision is expected to be made after pre-game warmups. Both Garoppolo (shoulder) and Brissett were limited in Thursday's practice, and the prognosis of the offense was further muddled by the limited status of star tight end Rob Gronkowski (hamstring). Running back LeGarrette Blount, who leads the NFL with 298 yards rushing and has scored four touchdowns, was named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month on Thursday.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers don't really care who starts under center for the Patriots, opening them as 7.5-point home favorites in this AFC matchup. Since then, the line has seen some Bills action, sitting currently at New England -7. The total opened at 42.5 and has been bet up to 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Bills are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Bills last four games following a SU win.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets (+2, 40)

* The Seattle Seahawks expect to have quarterback Russell Wilson in the lineup Sunday, despite battling an ankle injury and an MCL sprain suffered in last week's win over San Francisco, but he vows to be under center despite reports that said he'd miss up to three weeks with the latest injury. The Seahawks got a big boost last week with the re-emergence of tight end Jimmy Graham, who snared six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown against the 49ers and looks to be all the way back from his surgery on a torn patellar tendon.

* Last week quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw a career-high six interceptions and lost two fumbles. It doesn't look to get any easier for Gang Green's offense against the Seahawks, who rank first in the league in total defense and second in scoring defense, allowing just 12.3 points a game. Fitzpatrick's top targets are both battling injuries as Eric Decker, who leads the team with 194 yards receiving and a pair of touchdowns, is expected to seek an MRI exam on his shoulder and Brandon Marshall has been slowed with a knee sprain.

LINE HISTORY: The Jets opened this game as 2.5-point home pups and there has been action on both sides since. The Jets moved down to +1 earlier in the week, but have moved back to the current number of +2. The total opened at a low 41.5 and bettors still like the Under, moving the number to an even 40. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win.
* Jets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last five games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-0 in Jets last six games following a straight up loss.

Cleveland Browns at Washington (-7.5, 46.5)

* While exciting and versatile wide receiver Terrelle Pryor said that the Browns were going "to win out" the rest of the season, the problems remain for Cleveland, which will start rookie Cody Kessler for the second straight game with Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown both sidelined. Kessler, out of USC, finished 21-for-33 for 244 yards with no interceptions in an encouraging debut, but Cleveland may be without running back Isaiah Crowell, who ranks second in the NFL is rushing with 274 yards and a robust 6.1 yards per carry.

* Attempting to defend its NFC East title, Washington started the year 0-2 with losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas before notching its unlikely comeback against the Giants. They may be short-handed it their quest to make it two straight as wide receivers DeSean Jackson (ankle, knee) and Josh Doctson (achilles) are both listed as questionable for Sunday's game and they lost two starting offensive linemen against New York.

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened this game as heavy 10-point home chalk, but bettors are actually backing the Browns here moving the line all the way to Cleveland +7.5. The total opened at 45.5 and has been bet up to 46.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in October.
* Washington is 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Browns last seven road games.
* Over is 8-0 in Redskins last eight games overall.

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 43)

* Trevor Siemian acquitted himself well in his first road start, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after throwing for 312 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's 29-17 victory at Cincinnati. The Florida native is beginning to develop chemistry with Emmanuel Sanders, who collected nine catches for 117 yards and two touchdowns versus the Bengals. Von Miller leads the league with five sacks this season and had a 26-yard interception return for a touchdown in the teams' last meeting -- Denver's 31-23 win on Dec. 2, 2012.

* Jameis Winston passed for a career-high 405 yards with three touchdowns in a 37-32 setback to Los Angeles last Sunday. Charles Sims had 124 yards from scrimmage and a rushing touchdown versus Los Angeles and should receive another sizable workload with Doug Martin (hamstring) expected to miss his second straight game on Sunday. Cameron Brate also made the most of additional playing time on Sunday by reeling in a pair of touchdown passes after fellow tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins sat out following an arrest for DUI before being claimed off waivers by the New York Jets on Monday.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened this game favored by a field goal on the road and the line hasn't moved off that number. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet down to 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Buccaneers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 7-3 in Broncos last 10 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
* Over is 5-0 in Buccaneers last five games following a SU loss.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8, 43)

* After ranking last in total offense in 2015 and managing only three field goals through the first two games, Los Angeles snapped out of its doldrums in Tampa Bay. Running back Todd Gurley got in the end zone twice on a pair of 1-yard touchdowns, but he averaging only 2.9 yards per carry as defenses continue to stack the box and dare quarterback Case Keenum to beat them. Keenum threw for his first two scoring passes of the season and 190 yards against the Buccaneers, but he lacks a go-to wide receiver and is completing 53.8 percent of his passes with 559 yards overall through three games.

* Although Carson Palmer established career highs in touchdown passes (35), yards (4,671) and quarterback rating (104.6) last season, he has been picked off 12 times in his last seven games (playoffs included) since injuring a finger on his throwing hand in Week 15 last season. Running back David Johnson was one of the few constants on offense last week with 83 yards rushing and a pair of touchdown runs while speedster John Brown finally emerged with six receptions for 70 yards after catching one ball in each of the first two games.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened this NFC West showdown as big 8.5-point home chalk, but have since been bet down to Arizona -8. The total opened at 43.5 and has been bet down to 43. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Rams last six versus NFC West opponents.
* Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last six home games.

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 53)

* Drew Brees returns to San Diego for the first time since leaving as a free agent in 2006 as he attempts to lead the New Orleans Saints to their first victory of the season Sunday against the Chargers. Age certainly is not slowing Brees down, as the veteran enters Week 4 leading the NFL in completions (93), passing yards (1,062) and touchdown tosses (eight). He has enjoyed facing AFC teams of late, throwing for at least 400 yard and three touchdowns in the last two encounters.

* Melvin Gordon, who enters Week 4 tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns with four, accounted for all but two of San Diego's feeble rushing-yards total last week and hopes for better results against the Saints. Philip Rivers, who replaced Brees as the Chargers' quarterback, has recorded 695 passing yards and a 100.4 rating in two career starts against New Orleans.

LINE HISTORY: The Chargers opened this game favored by 4.5-points, but bettors are backing Brees in his homecoming, moving the line to San Diego -3.5. Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout here, pegging this game with the highest total of the week at 53.5. It has been bet down to 53. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a losing record.
* Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-0 in Saints last four road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Chargers last five home games.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+1, 44.5)

* Ezekiel Elliott, tied for second in the NFL with 274 yards, rolled up 140 in Dallas' 31-17 victory over Chicago last Sunday and looks to exploit similar gaping holes in the 49ers' 23rd-ranked rush defense (122.7 yards per game).Dez Bryant is nursing a hairline fracture in his right leg near the knee. Slot receiver Cole Beasley (team-leading 20 catches, 213 yards) and tight end Jason Witten will be tasked with opening up the defense to prevent San Francisco from stacking the box against Elliott.

* San Francisco has seen its defense gouged for 83 points over its last two games following a suffocating 28-0 victory over Los Angeles in the season opener. Carlos Hyde rushed for two touchdowns in the fourth quarter of a 37-18 setback to Seattle on Sunday and has an NFL high-tying four scores this season. Blaine Gabbert, who has completed only 55.2 percent of his passes this season, was just 14-of-25 for 119 yards and an interception versus the Seahawks.

LINE HISTORY: The Niners opened this game as 3-point home pups, but since then its been all San Fran money, moving the line to 49ers +1. The total opened at 46 and has been bet down to 44.5. Check out the complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games in October.
* 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last six road games.
* Under is 7-0 in 49ers last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record.

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football NFL betting preview: Giants at Vikings
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Minnesota's defense has permitted only 13 points in the second half, helping to overcome 10-point deficits at Tennessee and Carolina.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 43)

Losing their starting quarterback on the eve of the regular season appeared to be an ominous omen for the Minnesota Vikings, who instead have overcome the adversity and are stamping themselves as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Vikings go for the fourth victory in as many games when they host the New York Giants on Monday night.

Minnesota has been among the league's biggest early-season surprises following a season-ending injury to quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, following a Week 1 win at Tennessee with impressive victories over Green Bay and Carolina. "I don’t know if they’re the best defense in the league but they’re one of them," Giants star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. said of a unit that has permitted only 40 points. "They’re a great defense through in and throughout from the back and the front. All the way around, they’re a great team.” New York eked out a pair of narrow victories over Dallas and New Orleans before blowing a 12-point lead in a 29-27 home loss to the Washington Redskins. The mercurial Beckham drew unwanted headlines after the game when Giants coach Ben McAdoo admonished him for not controlling his emotions.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Vikings opened the betting week as 3.5-point home favorites for this Monday night matchup with the New York Giants. The Vikings' spread quickly went up early in the week - peaking at -5 on Thursday and Friday - but money has come in on the Giants and the line is currently (Sunday evening) at -4.

The total opened at 43.5 and dropped by 1/2 point during the week to hit the current number of 43. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+0.5) - Vikings (-3) + home field (-3) = Vikings -5.5

INJURY REPORT:

Giants - DE O. Vernon (Prob Mon, wrist), CB E. Apple (Doub Mon, hamstring), RB R. Jennings (Doub Mon, thumb), CB D. Rodgers-Cromartie (Doub Mon, groin), DT R. Thomas (Out Mon, illness), T. M. Newhouse (Out Mon, calf), S D. Thompson (Out Mon, foot), S N. Berhe (Out Mon, concussion), RB S. Vereen (Elig Week 12, tricep), S M. Thompson (I-R, knee), FB N. Whitlock (I-R, foot), LB J. Thomas (I-R, knee), FB W. Johnson (I-R, stinger), TE M. LaCosse (I-R, knee).

Vikings - TE M. Pruitt (Prob Mon, knee), RB J. McKinnon (Prob Sun, toe), G A. Boone (Prob Mon, hip), FB Z. Line (Ques Mon, undisclosed), C N. Easton (Ques Mon, ankle), TE D. Morgan (Doub Mon, knee), DT S. Floyd (Early Nov, knee), RB A. Peterson (Elig Week 11, knee), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), QB T. Heinicke (Elig Week 8, foot), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr (I-R, leg), G M. Harris (Elig Week 8, illness).

WEATHER REPORT: Minnesota's fancy new U.S. Bank Stadium has a roof - no weather worries Monday night.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Injuries in both the offensive and defensive backfields could present a daunting obstacle for New York, which lost starting running back Rashad Jennings to a thumb injury in Week 2 and backup Shane Vereen possibly for the season with a torn triceps sustained last week. Quarterback Eli Manning, who was picked off twice while throwing for 350 yards last week, has plenty of receiving options at his disposal with Beckham, Victor Cruz and rookie Sterling Shepard, but Vereen robs him of his top pass-catching threat out of the backfield. Jennings did not do much in practice Friday, raising the possibility that Orleans Darkwa and Bobby Rainey will share the bulk of the carries. New York gave up 296 yards through the air last week and is dealing with myriad injuries in the secondary.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 1-2 O/U): After stifling Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in its home opener in Week 2, Minnesota opened eyes across the league by dominating Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers, snapping their 14-game winning streak at home 22-10. The Vikings took down the reigning NFC champions despite the absence of running back Adrian Peterson, who is sidelined indefinitely after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his knee sustained against the Packers. Quarterback Sam Bradford, who sat out the season opener following his acquisition from Philadelphia, has played superbly in his two starts, throwing for 459 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Minnesota's defense has permitted only 13 points in the second half, helping to overcome 10-point deficits at Tennessee and Carolina.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 4.
* Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
* Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 11-1 in Vikings last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is giving a bit of an edge to the home favorite Vikings in this Monday night matchup with 54 percent of the picks. As for the total, 55 percent of the wagers are on the Over.


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Brady's return has Patriots pegged as big road faves

“After our line had been open for only 15 minutes, literally every bet we’d written was on the Patriots.”

Week 5 of the NFL season is on deck, and not a minute too soon for the New England Patriots. We talk about the opening lines on a few games this week with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (+7.5)

Tom Brady returns under center for the Patriots, after a four-game suspension for Deflategate, though the Pats went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in his absence. The lone SU loss came Sunday, when New England got shut out at home against Buffalo 16-0 as a 3.5-point favorite.

Cleveland remains winless on the season at 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Browns lost to Washington 31-20 as a 7.5-point road underdog Sunday and haven’t won SU since Week 14 of the 2015 season.

“We thought as low as 7 and as high as 10, and we settled for 7.5,” Simbal said of the opening line at CG’s books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M. Bettors got on that number pretty quickly on Sunday night, moving New England out to -9.

Sportsbook.ag went to double digits right from the get-go.

“We opened the Patriots -10, the highest road favorite this season,” Childs said. “The Pats get Brady back, and he makes his season debut against arguably the worst defense in the NFL. The Browns are 0-4 and off yet another game where they held a second-half lead. The Browns have been competitive, but just can’t close.

“After our line had been open for only 15 minutes, literally every bet we’d written was on the Patriots.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)

Dallas hasn’t had Tony Romo this season, but is hardly worse for the wear at this point. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) topped San Francisco 24-17 Sunday as a 1-point road fave, with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott throwing for 245 yards and two TDs, and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott rushing for 138 yards and a TD.

Cincinnati played the Thursday nighter in Week 4 and got a 22-7 home win over Miami giving 7.5 points.

“I have this power-rated as a pick ’em, but no question, they will bet the Cowboys here at home, so we opened them -1.5 and we’ll see what our bettors do with that number,” Childs said. “So far, the early action is actually on the Bengals, so we’ve already gone to -1 on the Cowboys.

“Both teams are coming off nice wins and covers, and both have plenty of momentum coming into this game. The Bengals have extra rest, having played on Thursday.”

Indeed, with Cincy getting a couple extra days’ rest, CG installed them as a road favorite.

“We ranged anywhere from Bengals -3.5 to Cowboys -1.5, and settled for opening Bengals -1,” Simbal said.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

The Giants make their second straight trip to the upper Midwest, and on a short week no less. New York will wrap up Week 4 when it plays at Minnesota in the Monday nighter, and will be in prime time again Sunday night at Lambeau Field.

Meanwhile, Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) had its bye in Week 4 after a 34-27 home win over Detroit as a 6-point chalk in Week 3.

“The Giants will be coming off a tough road game in Minnesota and a short week heading to Green Bay, so instead of 4.5-5, we went 6.5,” Simbal said.

Sportsbook.ag went a tick higher, opening Green Bay at -7.

“There’s little to no action on the game so far,” Childs said. “Very tough spot for the Giants, playing on the road Monday night and with a short week, having to travel again to Green Bay, which is coming off a bye. It’s a great spot for the Packers, a bad spot for the Giants, and it’s reflected in our opener as we inflated the Packers a bit.”

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-6)

Defending Super Bowl champion Denver continues to roll with new quarterbacks. On Sunday, second-year starter Trevor Siemian hurt his left (non-throwing) shoulder in the second quarter at Tampa Bay, but the Broncos (4-0 SU and ATS) still coasted 29-17 as 3.5-point road favorites.

Atlanta (3-1 SU and ATS) has won and covered three in a row, including a big victory over defending NFC champion Carolina, 48-33 catching 2.5 points at home Sunday.

“It’s a tough number to set with Siemian not finishing the Broncos’ game against the Bucs,” Childs said. “Regardless, the Broncos’ strength is their defense, and we made them a solid 6-point favorite. If Siemian is a go against the Falcons, we’ll get to 6.5 real quick. If he’s out, this line should creep down to 5.5 or 5, but it’s really tough to figure out.

“We’ve got the game circled and are only taking half-limits on this game.”

CG also proceeded with caution, though it opened the game a point higher.

“This was our most debated game,” Simbal said. “We went with Broncos -7.”

That led to some quick action on the Falcons, with the line moving to -5 by late Sunday night.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Six most popular picks this week in the Westgate Super Contest

1) Jets +2.5 (661)– L

2) Broncos -3 (592)- W

3) Panthers -3 (541)– L

4) Patriots -5.5 (502)– L

5) 49ers +2.5 (460)– L

6) Raiders +3.5 (440)– W

Season record of top 6 picks: 2-4 this week (6-18 for season)

**********

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Jaguars 30, Colts 27— College games end at like 2am Saturday night; having an NFL game on from England at 9:30am ET is a bit much. Jags are now 2-2 in London the last four years; all four of those games went over the total- they led this game 23-7 after three quarters, then held on. As for the Colts, they’re 1-3, allowing 30+ points in all three losses- they needed a 63-yard TD in last 1:30 for their only win last week. Pretty soon, the Nick Saban-to-Indy rumors should be popping up.

Bills 16, Patriots 0— New England is so sure they’re going to win the AFC East, they basically forfeited this game, playing a rookie QB (who already had an injured thumb) with a WR (Edelman) as his backup. No emergency backup QB, they just got this game over with, now Brady returns next week and things will return to normal and they can coast to yet another division title.

Redskins 31, Browns 20— Jerry Izenberg once wrote a book about Bill Parcells called, “No Medals for Trying”, which sums up the Browns’ first four games. Cleveland led 20-17 after third quarter; natives were drawing up impeachment papers for coach Gruden, but Redskins drove 91-39 yards for 4th quarter TDs to even their record at 2-2.

Seahawks 27, Jets 17— Sometimes teams don’t like an early bye too much, but for Seattle, their Week 5 bye couldn’t come at a better time; Russell Wilson needs to heal up. Seahawks had a 13-yard advantage in field position here. In their last two games, Jets have had 21 drives, 11 turnovers (-10); their offense scored one TD, allowed two TDs. I suppose they could bench QB Fitzpatrick, but then Geno Smith would have to play.

Texans 27, Titans 20— Only second half TD came on game-winning punt return by Houston; O’Brien’s play-calling produced TDs on Texans’ first two drives, but then only six points on last nine drives. Tennessee gave up the punt return TD and gave Houston a gift FG when they had 12 men on the field while Texans were trying to punt. Marcus Mariota was very unimpressive; he looks like a college-level passer and he only ran the ball four times for 20 yards.

Bears 17, Lions 14— Rumors are popping up that Detroit wants to hire Josh McDaniels as its next coach, with Jimmy Garoppolo as their new QB. Be careful what you wish for; Stafford is a pretty good QB (43-53 career record, with 0-2 playoff mark); he is still only 28, but you could probably get a good package for him in a trade. Lions’ only TD in this game came on a punt return. Hoyer passed for 302 yards as Bears got their first win this year.

Falcons 48, Panthers 33— Ryan passed for 504 yards, which is a lot harder when your team was winning the whole game- he averaged 12 yards per attempt. Atlanta’s last three TDs all came on plays of 35+ yards; they’re averaging over 7 yards per play, for the season. Cam Newton left with a concussion; Carolina is 1-3, after being 17-2 last year. Losing the Super Bowl does funny things to a team.

Raiders 28, Ravens 27— Baltimore rallied from down 21-12 with 7:00 left to take lead with 3:36 left, but Oakland drove 66 yards in six plays to win its third straight road game. Yardage was 412-261 Ravens; Oakland had 9-yard edge in field position in penalty-filled game. Two of Raiders’ four TDs came on drives of only 6-29 yards.

Saints 35, Chargers 34— Drew Brees wins his homecoming to San Diego. Horrific loss for Chargers, who’ve led by double digits in all four games, but are 1-3. Bolts led 24-14 at half, had ball up 34-21 with 6:50 left, but turned ball over three times on their last six offensive plays of the game. If you’re trying to get a new stadium and you need to win a vote on Election Day to get it, coughing up double digit leads every week is no bueno.

Cowboys 24, 49ers 17— Dallas rallies back from down 14-0 to win again as Dak Prescott is now 3-1 as an NFL starter. Good balance for Cowboys (194 running yards, 234 passing); Blaine Gabbert is now 9-30 as an NFL starter; Colin Kaepernick has a $60M guaranteed contract, but can’t beat him out.

Broncos 27, Buccaneers 7— Very rough day for Jameis Winston (17-35, 179 yards, two INTs). Another lightning delay in 4th quarter; wonder if Bucs will have more 1:00 home games early next season? Broncos were +3 in turnovers, had 14-yard edge in field position. Siemian hurt his left shoulder; rookie Lynch was 14-24/170 in relief. Denver hosts red-hot Atlanta next week in one of Week 5’s best matchups.

Rams 17, Cardinals 13— The difference between winning and losing teams in the NFL is very, very thin; last three weeks, Ram defense has been on field in last 2:00 of all three games, with other team driving to take the lead, but none of them did. LA is finding ways to win. This was also third time in last five games with Arizona that Rams KO’d Carson Palmer from the game.

Steelers 43, Chiefs 14— One of worst NFL games I’ve seen in long time; KC has scored three offensive TDs in their last three games. This seems like a good time to point out that Antonio Brown’s father Eddie once scored nine TD’s in an Arena Football League game for the Albany Firebirds, 1999 Arena Bowl champs. So far in Week 4, favorites are 5-9 vs spread, home teams 7-7, over 7-7.