NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 4 (Thursday, September 29 - Monday, October 3)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, September 29 - Monday, October 3

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Patriots QB situation continues to be muddled for one more week

Jacoby Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Jimmy Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder.

There’s only one more game left in Tom Brady’s suspension, and his team is unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. We talk about the opening lines on four key games this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (no line)

New England trotted out third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett for last Thursday’s game against Houston. It didn’t matter, as the Patriots rolled over the visiting Texans 27-0 in a pick ‘em game.

Meanwhile, Buffalo (1-2 SU and ATS) got one of the more stunning Week 3 wins, dumping Arizona 33-18 as a 5-point home underdog Sunday.

Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. So Sportsbook.ag is holding off on setting the line until Bill Belichick clarifies that situation – like it’ll matter for the 3-0 SU and ATS Pats.

“With the Pats dealing with so many issues at the quarterback position, we’re not going to open until we know more about who’s going to get the start for them,” Childs said. “Both Garoppolo and Brissett are listed as questionable, and I honestly don’t think either will be able to go. We’ll see, but as of now, this game is closed.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) was on the very short end of the most shocking Week 3 decision, getting railroaded 34-3 at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point chalk. Kansas City (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) drubbed the New York Jets 24-3 laying 3 points at home. But Childs has big expectations of the Steelers.

“With the Steelers at home off an embarrassing loss, we expect a very solid effort from them in this spot,” Childs said. “Throw in the fact that this is the Sunday night featured game, and we believe the public is going to be all over the Steelers in this one. That said, Pittsburgh definitely has some issues on defense, and the Chiefs were very impressive dominating a good Jets team.”

Sportsbook.ag oddmakers needed some time to settle on the number.

“We thought about opening Steelers -6, but felt that was too many points, so we opened them -5, which is a dead number. We’ll see how the market reacts to our opener,” Childs said. “We can easily get to 6 if we get flooded with Steelers money, and if sharp money backs the Chiefs and takes the points, then we’ll quickly get down to 4.5 or 4.

“Again, 5 being a dead number, we’ve got a lot of wiggle room to maneuver, with little chance of getting sided or middled.”

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)

Cam Newton and Co. suffered a stunning Week 2 loss, as well, with the reigning NFC champion Panthers (1-2 SU and ATS) falling 22-10 as 6-point home faves against Minnesota. Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS) still has to get in its Week 3 work, playing at New Orleans in the Monday nighter.

“This is a tough number to hang, because we really don’t know how good the Falcons are. So much will depend on their game Monday night,” Childs said. “The Panthers have been such a public team for the past year, and we feel they’ll get the money here off a loss. I have the game power-rated Panthers -3, but knowing the public will be on them, we added the hook with an opener of Panthers -3½ and will charge a premium on the early Panthers money.”

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

In Sam Bradford, Minnesota has found a more than capable replacement for injured Teddy Bridgewater, and the Vikes’ defense is getting it done, too, en route to a 3-0 SU and ATS start. On Sunday, the Vikings upended defending NFC champion Carolina 22-10 as a 6-point road underdog.

New York (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) gave up a late field goal, followed by an interception in losing to Washington 29-27 giving 3.5 points at home.

“This was so close to this game being a matchup of undefeated teams, but the Giants couldn’t close out the Redskins on Sunday,” Childs said. “The Vikings have been flat-out dominant on defense this season. The Giants are much improved on defense, but they yielded a season-high 29 points on Sunday, so they still have plenty of work to do on that side of the ball.

“It’s a Monday night game, and US Bank Stadium is going to be nuts. Normally, home field in the NFL is worth close to 3 points; for the Vikings and this new stadium, we make their home edge 3.5 points. We have the Vikings power-rated a 1-point favorite, so tack on the 3.5 points for their home field, and we opened Vikings -4.5.”

[Udog]

Wiseguys are keeping a close eye on these redemption storylines in NFL Week 4

After two easy wins and covers, the Steelers had the look and feel of a team that was more than ready to give the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC. Now, who knows?

Spread to bet now

Tennessee at Houston (-6.5)

Bill O’Brien and the Texans looked like a shaken bunch when they boarded the bus after last Thursday’s 27-0 shutout loss in New England, but they will have had a few extra days to sort things out. Houston was not as bad as it looked in Foxboro, but no one knows if the Texans are as good as they showed in home wins over Chicago and Kansas City. At any rate, Houston gets another home game and is looking down at the rest of the AFC South, so things can’t be all that bad. The Titans have to figure out a way to jump-start an offense which has scored only 42 points in three games, and do it against a Houston team whose defense was embarrassed by the Patriots’ third-string QB on national TV. If the money stays heavy money on the Texans, it could bump the line up to 7.

Spread to wait on

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-6)

Philadelphia 34, Pittsburgh 3. What was THAT all about? After two easy wins and covers, the Steelers had the look and feel of a team that was more than ready to give the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC. Now, who knows? The Steelers were outplayed in every phase of the game (except punting) vs. their in-state rivals, and now face a pretty good Chiefs team that is coming off a dismantling of the Jets. If you’re torn between taking or laying the points in this one, bear in mind that the Chiefs offense revolves around RB Jamaal Charles, and as of early this week KC was still uncertain if Charles is completely recovered from ACL surgery from last October. Might want to wait until there is more definitive word.

Total to watch

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (49.5)

Loading up on skill-position players in the draft has taken its toll on the Colts, who aspire to the Super Bowl but are actually under .500 in their last 19 regular-season games. Indy ranks 24th in the league in defense this season, and is giving up an average of 32 points a game. On the plus side, the D appears to be getting a little better (22 allowed vs. San Diego last week), though that might be a product of playing mediocre offensive teams. Jacksonville has offensive problems, namely an inability to run the ball, but is confident that it can move the ball through the air against Indy’s mediocre back 7. Both teams are 2-1 on the over.

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 29

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MIAMI (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 9/29/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-76 ATS (-32.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, October 2

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) vs. JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 3) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-89 ATS (-43.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (1 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (2 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4


Thurs – Sept. 26

Miami at Cincinnati, 8:25 PM ET
Miami: 1-8 ATS in games played on turf
Cincinnati: 17-6 ATS in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game


Sun – Oct. 2

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 9:30 AM ET
Indianapolis: 18-5 OVER in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Jacksonville: 66-91 ATS after playing a game at home

Cleveland at Washington, 1:10 PM ET
Cleveland: 9-1 OVER in the first month of the season
Washington: 7-19 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14

Buffalo at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 1-6 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog
New England: 27-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game

Seattle at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Seattle: 36-19 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
New York: 37-62 ATS off a road loss

Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 13-4 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS vs. mistake prone teams – 60+ penalty yards per game

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 8-24 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Chicago: 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 1-11 ATS against conference opponents
Houston: 12-3 ATS as a favorite

Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 5-16 ATS in road games against AFC North division opponents
Baltimore: 29-14 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Denver at Tampa Bay, 4:05 PM ET
Denver: 18-36 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
Tampa Bay: 18-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored

Dallas at San Francisco, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 10-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-17 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games

New Orleans at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 17-5 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
San Diego: 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Los Angeles at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
Los Angeles: 75-105 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Arizona: 31-14 ATS in home games off a non-conference game

Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 8:30 PM ET
Kansas City: 21-38 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Pittsburgh: 48-28 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7


Mon – Oct. 3

NY Giants at Minnesota, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 73-41 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Minnesota: 11-2 ATS in games played on turf

[Udog]

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 29

8:25 PM
MIAMI vs. CINCINNATI
Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home


Sunday, October 2

9:30 AM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Oakland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. WASHINGTON
Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
NY Jets are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Carolina

4:05 PM
DENVER vs. TAMPA BAY
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Dallas is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Dallas

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN DIEGO
New Orleans is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games ,
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing New Orleans

4:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 12 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Los Angeles is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Arizona is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games


Monday, October 3

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. MINNESOTA
NY Giants are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Minnesota
NY Giants are 2-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday's Game
Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2)– Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, September 29


Miami @ Cincinnati

Game 101-102
September 29, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.148
Cincinnati
135.347
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 7 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, September 29

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Thursday Night NFL betting preview: Dolphins at Bengals
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Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 44.5)

Adam Gase may be a first-time head coach, but the 38-year-old was quick to light a fire under his underachieving team after benching a former first-round pick in last week's contest. Gase hopes his aggressive action will provide a jolt for the sputtering Miami Dolphins, who will look to prevent their third 1-3 start in five years on Thursday when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals.

"I'm over discussing any of this stuff with players," a testy Gase said on the heels of his team's 30-24 overtime victory over winless Cleveland. "We're either going to start getting the job done, or we're going to make changes." Right tackle Ja'Wuan James, who was the 19th overall selection of the 2014 draft, was relegated to the bench after he was burned on a rush that led to a strip sack on the final drive of the fourth quarter on Sunday. While Miami was fortunate to walk away with its first win, Cincinnati has followed its impressive season-opening victory over the New York Jets with a 24-16 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 2 and a 29-17 setback to Denver on Sunday. Mercurial Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict is eager to stop the bleeding when he makes his season debut on Thursday after serving a three-game suspension for repeated violations of safety-related playing rules.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this AFC matchup with the Bengals favored by a touchdown at home. Since then the line has moved to Cincinnati -7.5. The total meanwhile, opened at 44.5 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+3) - Bengals (-2) + home field (-3) = Bengals -8

INJURY REPORT:

Dolphins - WR J. Landry (probable Thursday, shoulder)m TE D. Sims (probable Thursday, ankle), WR D. Parker (probable Thursday, hamstring), G D. Thomas (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), LB S. Paysinger (questionable Thursday, neck), LB J. Jenkins (questionable Thursday, thigh), LB K. Misi (questionable Thursday, neck), C A. Steen (questionable Thursday ankle), T B. Albert (questionable Thursday, ankle), RB A. Foster (doutbful Thursday, groin), C M. Pouncey (out Thursday, hip), TE J. Cameron (out Thursday, concussion).

Bengals - CB D. Kirkpatrick (questionable Thursday, calf), CB J. Shaw (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), K M. Nugent (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), S S. Williams (questionable Thursday, knee), TE T. Eifert (doubtful Thursday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a chance it could get wet in Cincinnati on Thursday. The forecast is calling for a 55 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the area. That being said, there will only be a slight two to three mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): With veteran Arian Foster still nursing a groin injury, Gase is expected to use rookie Kenyan Drake as the starter in a four-tier running back carousel that also features Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams and Isaiah Pead. Ajayi had an 11-yard touchdown run in overtime last week, but the Dolphins' 25th-ranked ground attack is mustering just 83 yards per game and is led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill (club-best 54 yards). Tannehill continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker, but Dion Sims will get the nod as fellow tight end Jordan Cameron nurses the fourth concussion in his six-year career.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Jeremy Hill scored twice last week and has 10 rushing touchdowns in his last 11 games heading into a date with the sputtering Dolphins' defense, which allowed 169 yards rushing last week and an NFL second-worst 147.3 yards per game. Andy Dalton (AFC-best 938 passing yards) was limited to just 206 yards passing last week versus the Broncos and A.J. Green has just 10 catches for 115 yards combined over the last two games. The duo could get back on track at the expense of cornerback Xavien Howard, who was shredded for eight catches for 144 yards by Cleveland's Terrell Pryor last week.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 versus AFC opponents.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Dolphins' last eight Thursday games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bengals' last six versus a team with a losing record.

CONSENSUS: The public is almost split down the middle for this AFC matchup, with 51 percent of wagers giving the Bengals the slightest of edges. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are on the Over.


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[Udog]

NFL Week 4 lines that make you go hmmm...

The Dallas Cowboys offense is starting to pick up steam but heads to the West Coast to play the rival 49ers in Week 4.

This week, there’s more than one theme when it comes to the teams and value we’ve discovered. It has to do with the “D”: Detroit, Denver, and Dallas. Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 4:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 46)

The opening line of Detroit -3 quickly evolved to -3 (Even) and to -2.5 for those bookmakers who wanted to get off the key number early in the week to test the waters. For Da Bears, we’ve seen nothing in three weeks.

The offense has been non-existent while their defense eventually tires from the amount of time they’re on the field. It’s not like their opponents were bad. The Cowboys, Eagles and Texans have been formidable early this season but Chicago hasn’t shown any signs of reversing its fortunes.

On the other hand, Detroit has been scoring at a high level, particularly on the road at Green Bay (loss this past week) and Indianapolis (opening win). The current line at -2.5 seems like a steal at this point and if you’re checking into this game, grab the number before this goes back up.

I don’t see anyone but die-hard Bear fans dropping their cash on their hometown favorites, so this game will definitely rise back up before kickoff. I don’t see the line coming into play. The Lions should outrun the Bears in this one.

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 44.5)

The opening line of Denver -3 hasn’t budged much in two days but that’s what seems surprising. After an opening win at Atlanta, the Bucs defense has been Swiss cheese allowing 77 points the past two games. Against a similarly defensively stronger team, they mustered just seven points against Arizona in Week 2.

Though I am wary of the second road game in a row factor, it seems like the Broncos can “Buc” that trend in this spot come Sunday. Trevor Siemian is more than capable of running the Broncos offense, has been incredibly efficient in the fourth quarter, and the defense is still among the best in the league.

Any time you can snag a team amidst a winning streak against a struggling opponent with a line of -3 or less, it seems like a value play despite all other factors. It doesn’t appear to be a letdown game in any sense as Denver has two 2-1 teams on its heels. Between these two teams, let’s ride the hot team until proven otherwise.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 46)

Dallas is heading to San Francisco and it seems the 49ers’ success of Week 1 has worn off quickly. Conversely, the Cowboys have tallied twice in the win column since their close call versus the Giants, otherwise they would be undefeated heading into this one.

The opening line of Dallas -3 hasn’t budged and if I were a Nevada bookmaker filling out the half-point parlay card numbers for this weekend, I’d be all over posting a -3.5 over a -2.5 but I’ll put my reputation on the line that no one can find two sportsbooks who will do that in the entire state.

The Cowboys offense has been clicking with point totals rising every week – duly noting the possible knee injury to Dez Bryant as we make these observations. Additionally, the San Francisco defense has been horrendous the past two games allowing a total of 83 points to score after an season-opening shutout. While the Niners will have their backers, particularly up in the Reno-Tahoe area, the money is going to be all over Dallas.

The spread will have no effect on the final score in my opinion. I also think this is a more important game for Dallas here on the road than the 49ers, who will be in a year-long funk throughout. Dallas, like Denver and Detroit, is the better team this week and that’s the edge we have.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8. 42.5)

Los Angeles is at Arizona this week with the Cardinals eight to 9-point favorites. I see nothing but awkward tells surrounding this game. The Rams have won two games in a row yet have been outscored by 17 points for the season. Arizona is 1-2 and has a plus-16 scoring ratio while losing two miserable games to AFC East opponents.

Los Angeles plays its second consecutive game on the road and that will be three games in four weeks away from the Coliseum. The Cardinals are suddenly faced with a must-win game after a horrendous outing in Buffalo where just about everything went wrong. They’ll need to address their kicking game for sure, but Arizona is considered a quality team and I view this as a big motivating game.

I see this line heading straight to -10 come Sunday and it being a big game for the bottom line of bookmakers with the favorite/Over plays commonplace in the late contests this week. Arizona is a big favorite for a reason and it’ll prove its worth this week.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFL knowledge to ponder

13) Minnesota Vikings are 3-0, despite scoring only three offensive TDs, tied with Houston for fewest in NFL. Vikings’ defense scored two TDs in the Tennessee game and ran a punt back for a score last week- you look at their offensive stats and wonder how the hell they’re 3-0, but they are.

12) Giants’ first three games were decided by total of six points; they were minus in turnovers all three games (-6) but the defense has forced 12 field goal tries, while allowing only four TDs, so they’ve been tough in the red zone.

11) Eagles had a great first three weeks, but have their bye this week, much like the Bengals two years ago, when they started the season 3-0, had their bye week……..then went 0-2-1 in their next three games. Momentum is a funny thing; you want to keep playing when things are going well.
10) 49ers have gone 3/out 17 times on 35 drives, most in NFL; Rams are next (15 of 34). Oakland/Atlanta have gone 3/out fewest times (three each).

Carolina has forced opponents to go 3/out 17 times on 34 drives, most in NFL; Texans are next, with 15 on 37 drives. Strangely, Patriots/Steelers have forced the fewest 3/outs (four each).

9) Falcons (7.0), Raiders (6.7) Redskins (6.5) are averaging the most yards per play. Rams/49ers (4.4 each) are last in yards/play, followed by Texans/Vikings (4.6).

8) Colts/Jets have allowed three TDs by defense/special teams, most in NFL. Saints, Bucs and Titans allowed two each. Minnesota scored three on defense/special teams, most in the league.

7) Colts play in London this week; usually the teams that play in London have their bye week the next week, but Indy requested that not happen this year, so I’ll be curious to see how they do next week, after so much travelling this week.

6) Buffalo Bills are only team in league two TD plays of 50+ yards this season. Jets have allowed three TDs of 50+ yards, most in NFL.

5) Colts have nine TDs thru three games, all on drives of 75+ yards, most in NFL. Chiefs have only one TD drive of 75+ yards in their first three games. Atlanta has allowed 12 TDs, all on drives of 75+ yards. Not good.

2) Cowboys (21 of 40), Lions (20 of 39) are only two teams converting more than half their 3rd down plays. Bills (10 of 36), Jaguars (12 of 42) have converted the lowest percentage on 3rd down.

1) Panthers/Bucs (218 each) have run the most plays this month, with Texans 3rd at 211. Bills (159), Bears (168) and Vikings (172) have run the fewest plays from scrimmage.

[Udog]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 4 already underway……..

— Dallas is 3-7-1 in last 11 games outside its division.

— Raiders covered eight of their last ten road games.

— Texans are 9-3 in last 12 games as a home favorite.

— Washington is 16-31-2 in its last 49 games as a favorite.

— New Orleans is 8-3-1 in last 12 games as an underdog.

— Colts covered three of last ten tries as a favorite.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Sunday, October 2

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

Game 275-276
October 2, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
137.544
Pittsburgh
138.625
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+5 1/2); Over

Los Angeles @ Arizona

Game 273-274
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
130.084
Arizona
138.851
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 9
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-7 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ San Diego

Game 271-272
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
128.548
San Diego
129.928
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 4 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+4 1/2); Over

Dallas @ San Francisco

Game 269-270
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.249
San Francisco
125.363
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-2); Under

Denver @ Tampa Bay

Game 267-268
October 2, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
139.990
Tampa Bay
128.390
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 11 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-3); Over

Oakland @ Baltimore

Game 265-266
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
132.745
Baltimore
130.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Houston

Game 263-264
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
126.618
Houston
130.483
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under

Detroit @ Chicago

Game 261-262
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
128.105
Chicago
126.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Under

Carolina @ Atlanta

Game 259-260
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
134.392
Atlanta
135.756
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+3 1/2); Over

Seattle @ NY Jets

Game 257-258
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.504
NY Jets
133.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3); Under

Buffalo @ New England

Game 255-256
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.832
New England
142.907
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 4 1/2
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-4 1/2); N/A

Cleveland @ Washington

Game 253-254
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
123.502
Washington
131.990
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 8 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 251-252
October 2, 2016 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
133.194
Jacksonville
126.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 7
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 2 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-2 1/2); Under


Monday, October 3

NY Giants @ Minnesota

Game 277-278
October 3, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
131.564
Minnesota
137.489
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 6
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Under

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Sunday's Games
Colts (1-2) vs Jaguars (0-3) (in London)– Jacksonville lost its two home games by total of 6 points, amid rumors that Bradley could be fired with loss here, as bye week looms. Indy had one offensive TD in 25 drives vs Jaguars LY; they gave up 296 rushing yards to Jax in those two games. Colts won six of last seven games vs Jaguars, but lost last one 51-16 here LY- Indy is 10-5 in visits here. Colts hit long pass with 1:17 left to beat Chargers and get its first win LW; Indy 4-9-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite, 16-12-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jaguars play game here every year; 5-11 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Browns (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)– Former Redskin QB RGIII returns to Maryland, with his arm in a sling. Browns started three different QBs in first three games, losing in OT after its rookie kicker missed FG at gun of regulation. Cleveland is 9-7-1 in last 17 games as a road underdog- they led last two weeks at half, ran ball for 145-169 yards, but couldn’t finish. Washington is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite; they’ve already lost at home to Steelers/Dallas this year. Last two Redskin games were decided by total of 6 points- they won two of three series games, beating Browns 14-11 in ’08, in only meeting played here. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs spreas in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Bills (1-2) @ Patriots (3-0)– Garoppolo/Brissett are both banged up, unsure who starts at QB in last game before Brady returns. Patriots are 23-2 in last 25 series games, winning 40-32/20-13 in two games vs Buffalo LY. Bills lost 14 of last 15 visits here, winning in ’14. Buffalo ran ball for 208 yards LW, in first game with new OC, after running for total of 151 in first two games, but they threw for only 88 yards- they’ll need lot more balance here. Buffalo is 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a divisional road dog, 7-5-1 in last 13 overall as a road dog. Patriots are 5-1-3 in last nine games as a home favorite- they’ve historically been stronger HF vs non-division foes. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)– Wilson has sprained knee, Seattle has bye week next; backup is TCU rookie Boykin (7-9/65 in mop-up duty LW). Seahawks are 5-6 in last 11 games as road favorite- they’re 6-3-2 in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jets turned ball over eight times LW in epic display of bad offense- they’re 8-2 vs spread in last 10 tries as home underdog, 6-10-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last five series games; Seattle lost its last five games vs Jets in Swamp, but last visit was in 2003- they last beat Jets here in ’83. Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle. NFC West teams are 1-4 vs spread in non-division games. AFC East teams are 5-3, 0-1 if favored.

Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1)– Atlanta scored nine TDs on 18 drives in winning last two games; average total in their first three games is 65 (over 3-0) . Falcons defense also allowed 12 TDs already, all on drives of 75+ yards- they’re not good. Panthers turned ball over 7 times (-4) in last two games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorites, 10-5 in last 15 with a spread of 3 or less. Atlanta is 7-2 in last nine games as a home dog, 5-2 under Quinn in games with spread of 3 or less. Carolina defense has forced 17 3/outs, most in league- they won five of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, after losing previous five . NFL-wide, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Lions (1-2) @ Bears (0-3)– Chicago is 8-23-3 vs spread in last 34 games with spread of 3 or less points- they were outscored 83-45 in losing first three games, losing to rookie QBs last two weeks; they’ve lost 11 of last 12 home games, are 2-10 as home dogs in last 4+ years. Check Cutler’s status (thumb). Lions allowed 69 points in splitting pair of road games- they have only two TDs in last six visits to red zone. Detroit won last six series games, with five of six wins by 8 or less points (37-34/24-20 LY); Lions won last three visits here, by 2-6-4 points. Detroit is 5-8 as road favorite last 4+ years, 12-15-2 in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Titans (1-2) @ Texans (2-1)– Houston scored one TD in last two games; all three TDs NE scored against them LW came on drives of less than 50 yards. Titans were outscored 29-6 in first half of last two games; they’ve lost field position by 9-9-6 yards in first three games. Houston is 8-3 as home favorite under O’Brien (1-0 this year). Tennessee is 6-13 in last 19 games as road dog- they won only road game this year, 16-15 at Detroit. Texans are 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four, all by 14+ points; Titans lost last four visits here, by 24-6-24-14 points. Tennessee scored one TD on 25 drives vs Texans LY, losing 20-6/34-6. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games. There are rumors that JJ Watt is hurt (back, check status) which would obviously hurt the Houston defense.

Raiders (2-1) @ Ravens (3-0)– Baltimore’s 3-0 start was vs Bills-Browns-Jags, not exactly a tough start, but 3-0 is 3-0; Ravens have only nine TDs, but tried nine FGs- they’re 7-2 in last nine games with Oakland- they lost 37-33 at Oakland in Week 2 LY. Raiders are 0-5 in Baltimore, losing last three by 19+ points each, but last visit was in ’12. Oakland is on road for third time in four weeks; they’ve run ball for 153 yards/game so far, with +4 turnover ratio. Oakland foes are just 11-33 on 3rd down. Ravens are 10-17-1 in last 28 games as home favorite. Raiders covered seven of last eight games as a road dog. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Broncos (3-0) @ Buccaneers (1-2)– Tampa Bay allowed 77 points in losing last two weeks; they allowed defensive TD in both games. Bucs ran ball for 86 ypg so far- they miss injured RB Martin. Last 8+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-20-1 as a home dog- they gave up four TDs to Rams LW, after LA hadn’t scored a TD in first two games. Denver is off to 3-0 start in Siemian era; they’re 4-1-1 as a road favorite under Kubiak, 16-33 on 3rd down this year. Broncos are 6-2 vs Bucs, winning last three by 3-3-8 points; Tampa’s last series win was in 1999. Broncos are 2-1 here, with last visit in ’04. AFC West teams are 3-1 as favorites outside the division; NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread in non-division games.

Cowboys (2-1) @ 49ers (1-2)– Dallas scored 29 ppg in winning last two games, scoring 7 TDs on last 19 drives; WR Bryant has hairline fracture in knee (check status). 49ers allowed 83 points in losing last two games, even with +1 turnover ratio both games. Niners allowed eight TDs on foes’ last 25 drives. Cowboys covered five of last six games as a road favorite; they are 2-7-2 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less points; 49ers are 8-3-1 in last 12 games as home dog, 4-1 in last five where spread was 3 or less. Home side lost four of last five series games; Dallas won three of last four visits here- average total in last seven series games is 55.6. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs outside its division; NFC West teams are 2-4.

Saints (0-3) @ Chargers (1-2)– San Diego could easily be 3-0, but blew late leads in losing both road games. Saints’ QB Brees played first five years of career in San Diego, going 30-28 as a starter. NO won by 5-7 points in last two games vs Chargers- this is Brees’ first game back here since leaving the Bolts. Short week/long trip for Saints squad that allowed 417+ yards in all three games so far- they lost to Giants without allowing an offensive TD. San Diego is 5-8 in last 13 games as home favorite; Saints are 6-3-1 in last ten games as a road underdog. Saints have forced only five 3/outs on 28 drives, 4th-least in NFL. NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread outside division; AFC West teams are 7-3.

Rams (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Redbirds are 11-8-1 as home favorite under Arians, but 4-6 in last 10 tries; they got smoked 33-18 in Buffalo LW, turning ball over five (-4) times; Buffalo’s three TD drives were 53-52-47 yards. Underdogs covered all three LA games; Rams upset Seattle/Tampa last two weeks, holding off Bucs in red zone as game ended LW- they scored four TDs in Tampa, after not having any on offense in first two games- they averaged 6.6/6.8 yards/pass last two games, solid numbers. Arizona won four of last five series games, with three wins by 17+ points; Rams split last six visits here, which is much shorter trip now that team is in LA.

Chiefs (2-1) @ Steelers (2-1)— Pitt lost 23-13 at Arrowhead LY, ending 3-game series win streak; Chiefs lost last five visits here, with four of those losses by 8 or less points. KC’s last win in Steel City was in ’86. Steelers are 13-6 in last 19 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year; they got whacked 34-3 in Philly LW after allowing only two TDs on 19 drives in winning first two games- they’ve forced only four 3/outs so far, tied for least in NFL. Pitt gets RB Bell (suspension) back this week; rumors had him taking some practice reps at WR. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside its division, 4-2 as underdogs. Chiefs had eight takeaways in win over Jets LW; their only TD drive (defense scored two) was 35 yards.


Monday's Game
Giants (2-1) @ Vikings (3-0)— Giants’ three games were decided by total of six points; they beat Saints without scoring offensive TD, then lost 29-27 at home to Redskins LW, blowing 21-9 lead, allowing TD plays of 44-55 yards. Minnesota’s defense/special teams have three TDs, making up for offense (three TDs) that is getting used to new QB Bradford (beat Giants twice LY while with Eagles). Vikings are 9-2 as home favorite under Zimmer; Giants are 4-6-1 in last 11 games as a road underdog- they passed for 690 in two home games last two weeks, should enjoy climate inside dome. Minnesota allowed total of 40 points in three games; they gained only 284-211 yards in last two games, but lead NFL with a +8 turnover margin.

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4

The Broncos passing game laid waste to the Bengals' top-ranked passing defense. Just imagine what Thomas will do against the Bucs' porous secondary.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 46)

Lions' penalty parade vs. Bears' impressive discipline

When it comes to on-field talent, at least on the offensive side of the ball, this should be a one-sided affair. The Lions boast one of the most potent offensive attacks in the league, led by quarterback Matthew Stafford (third in the NFL in passing yards) and receiver Marvin Jones Jr. (first in receiving yards). Conversely, the Bears enter the game having compiled the sixth-fewest yards in the league. Their 932 total yards are more than 300 fewer than what the Lions have.

But the complexion of this game could change dramatically if both teams stick to the penalty patterns they've established through three weeks. Detroit sits second in the NFL with 29 accepted penalties and has the most accepted yards in the league (294). A whopping 66 of those came on a defensive pass interference penalty last week against Green Bay. The Packers converted the touchdown on the very next play and went on to win 34-27.

The Bears have been model citizens by comparison, incurring just 17 accepted penalties for 135 yards - the sixth-lowest total in the league. Their 55 defensive penalty yards against are 11 fewer than the Lions picked up on that one pass interference call against the Packers. Chicago may not have the offensive horses to keep pace with Detroit but another disciplined showing from the Bears, coupled with further penalty trouble from the Lions, could make this one interesting.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Kevin White


Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8, 42.5)

Rams' formidable kicking game vs. Cardinals' punt problems

Hands up if you thought the Rams would have a better record through three games than the Cardinals. OK, hands down, liars. The 2-1 Rams have defied expectations thanks in large part to a stout defense while the 1-2 Cardinals have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league due primarily to struggles in the passing game. And if both defenses dig in as expected Sunday afternoon, the Rams could make this one closer than expected.

Los Angeles enters Week 4 sitting eighth in the NFL in net yards per punt attempt at 42.2. For a team that punts as often as the Rams do, this is a critical component of their overall game plan. And it's no fluke, either. The Rams had the best net yards per attempt in 2015 at 43.7. Arizona is on the other end of the spectrum, ranked last in the league at a paltry 33.6 yards per attempt. This, too, is no outlier. The Cardinals' 36.2 yards per punt attempt in 2015 was the worst in football.

With this game boasting the second-lowest total of the week, Vegas is expecting a fair share of punts - that plays right into the Rams' hands. While they may not be able to match offenses with the high-powered Cardinals, a nine-yard advantage in average punt yardage is a major benefit and it could mean the difference between two teams leaving at .500 and the Rams shocking the football world by opening the season 3-1.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Tavon Austin


Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 44.5)

Broncos' strong passing game vs. Buccaneers' bad secondary

Everybody knew the Broncos' defense would be one of the top units in the league, and that has come to pass through the first three weeks of the season. But few expected the offense to look as good as it has, with rookie quarterback Trevor Siemian leading the team to a spotless 3-0 record on the strength of 756 passing yards and five touchdowns. Look for more of the same this weekend against a Buccaneers' pass defense that has been far from imposing.

The majority of the Broncos' key offensive pieces have positive Pro Football Focus grades, including Siemian (72.8) and the elite wide receiver tandem of Emmanuel Sanders (82.0) and Demaryius Thomas (73.7). All three laid waste to the Cincinnati Bengals' top-tier pass defense last week. Siemian racked up 312 yards and four touchdowns, while Sanders (nine receptions, 117 yards, 2 TDs) and Thomas (6 receptions, 100 yards, TD) burned the Bengals' aggressive secondary.

Those three should find things much simpler in Week 4, as the Buccaneers' secondary has struggled to contain opposing pass attacks. Three of the four starting defensive backs have grades below 70, while cornerback Brent Grimes (74.0) has looked shaky at times, further proving his prime years are long gone. Couple that with a Tampa Bay offensive line that boasts three players with grades below 48, and it's clear that the Broncos are in good position for a high-scoring day.

Daily fantasy watch: WR Demaryius Thomas


New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5, 43.5)

Giants' red-zone defense vs. Vikings' goal-to-go struggles

Much of the focus in this one will be on the Vikings' vaunted defense, which has risen to unexpectedly high levels after pummeling Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton in last week's 22-10 victory. Minnesota caught the Panthers completely by surprise by employing a pass-prevention nickel defense on a whopping 75 percent of their defensive snaps, according to Next Gen Stats. Look for Minnesota to use a similar tactic against the Giants' bevy of receiving options.

Yet, while the Vikings' defense has to be considered among the best in the league through three weeks, Minnesota's offensive efficiency is a different story - particularly when it comes to red-zone work. The Vikings have converted a paltry 28.6 percent of their red-zone visits into touchdowns, which is the third-worst mark in the league ahead of only the Washington Redskins and the Houston Texans. It's nothing new for Minnesota, which ranked 27th in red-zone TD rate a season ago.

That bodes poorly for the Vikings, who face a Giants unit that has surrendered touchdowns on just 25 percent of its opponents' red-zone visits. Only the Kansas City Chiefs have been stingier through three weeks. New York spent a pile of money to bolster its defense in the offseason, and that investment appears to be paying off - at least in some measure. Look for the Vikings to struggle in the red zone, and adjust your projections accordingly.

Daily fantasy watch: Giants D/ST