NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 22 - Monday, September 26)

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 26

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Monday Night Football betting preview and odds: Falcons at Saints
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Saints quarterback Drew Brees has a potent receiving duo in Willie Snead and Brandon Cooks, who have combined for 27 catches and four touchdowns through two weeks.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 53.5)

The New Orleans Saints will commemorate one of the more noteworthy games in franchise history when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night in a matchup of longtime NFC South rivals. It will mark the 10-year anniversary of the re-opening of the Superdome after the venue was forced to close for one season in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

While emotions certainly will not be as high as in New Orleans' win over Atlanta a decade ago, the Saints can use any edge to avoid an 0-3 start after dropping their first two games by a combined four points. "This is an important division game," said New Orleans coach Sean Payton, readily acknowledging the significance is far less than the game from 2006. "One team is 0-2 and trying to get a win, and another team that's 1-1." The Falcons rebounded from a 31-24 home loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1 with a 35-28 road win last week at Oakland, which squeezed out a 35-34 victory at New Orleans in the season opener.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 3-point home favorites for this divisional clash. The spread held fairly solid all week until a drop to -2.5 on Saturday afternoon. The total opened at a lofty 53.5 and has yet to move off the origianl number. Click here to view complete line history.

POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+2) - New Orleans (+4) + home field (-3) = New Orleans -1

KEY INJURIES:

Falcons - WR M. Sanu (Probable Monday, ankle), WR J. Jones (Probable Monday, calf), WR J. Hardy (Questionable Monday, shoulder), LB B. Reed (Questionable Monday, shoulder), LB B. Campbell (Questionable Monday, ankle), LB P. Worrilow (Out Monday, groin), CB J. Collins (Eligible Week 5, suspension).

Saints - WR W. Snead IV (Questionable Monday, toe), DE C. Jordan (Questionable Monday, knee), LB D. Ellerbe (Questionable Monday, quadricep), S K. Vaccaro (Questionable Monday, ankle), T T. Armstead (Out Monday, knee), TE J. Hill (Early October, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 25 percent chance of thunderstorms in the New Orleans area for Monday night, but that shouldn't be much of an issue underneath the roof of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Tricky situation as the Falcons have fared well as a visitor in this series, going 27-10 ATS since 1978, but the Saints are 29-8 SU and 25-11-1 ATS at home under Sean Payton against foes off a win. Stronger edge may lie in the total as Atlanta has played OVER in 4 straight Monday away appearances, while New Orleans is 5-1 OVER in their last 6 Monday Night home games."

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U): Matt Ryan had his fewest touchdown passes (21) since his rookie season in 2015, but he off to a fast start with 730 yards passing with five scores and one interception while leading the league with a 121.4 quarterback rating. There is cause for concern in the passing game with star wide receiver Julio Jones sitting out his second straight practice Friday due to a calf injury, but Atlanta coach Dan Quinn said he expects him to play. The Falcons are receiving solid production from the backfield tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, who have combined for 181 rushing yards and 11 receptions. Atlanta's defense ranks 29th overall, allowing an average of 412.5 yards per game.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U): New Orleans was horrendous on defense last season and little has changed -- it ranked 31st in the league with a staggering 451.5 yards surrendered and has been torched through the air for an average of 336.0 yards. Keeping the defense off the field would be easier if the Saints could crank up their running game, with lead back Mark Ingram producing 88 rushing yards on only 21 attempts, including nine carries in last week's 19-16 loss at the New York Giants. "From a rushing standpoint, I think we had some early positive runs, and all of a sudden we end up with the game over and only 13 rushing attempts (overall)," Payton said of the Week 2 loss. "I don't like the balance there." Quarterback Drew Brees has a potent receiving duo in Willie Snead and Brandon Cooks, who have combined for 27 catches and four touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC South.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC South.
* Under is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. NFC South.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Saints last 7 home games.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is supporting the home favorite Saints at a rate of 65 percent and the Over is picking up the majority of the totals wagers with 75 percent.

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[Udog]

Vegas books enjoy stellar NFL Sunday as public gets clobbered in Week 3

“The Bills set it all up by killing parlays, teasers and moneyline parlays. Philly was the second-biggest decision."

Every dog has its day, so the cliché goes. For many of them, that day was Sunday, meaning sportsbooks around Las Vegas did very well – and bettors took it squarely on the chin.

Eight underdogs covered in Sunday’s NFL action, including six notching outright wins, with major decisions coming from Buffalo’s upset of Arizona and Philadelphia’s thrashing of Pittsburgh. The Bills, 5-point home underdogs, rolled 33-18, while the Eagles ripped the Steelers 34-3 catching 3.5 at home.

Other outright ‘dog winners included Minnesota (+6), 22-10 at Carolina; Denver (+3.5), 29-17 at Cincinnati; Washington (+3.5), 29-27 at the New York Giants; and Los Angeles (+3.5), 37-32 at Tampa Bay.

“It was a good day,” said Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM Resorts, which operates sportsbooks at the MGM, Mirage and several more properties on the Las Vegas Strip. “The Bills set it all up by killing parlays, teasers and moneyline parlays. Philly was the second-biggest decision.

“We are going to have to give a good amount back on the Cowboys, but we will have a good day.”

If not for Dallas dropping Chicago 31-17 laying 6.5, it would have rated even better for Rood – “An 8 out of 10” if Chicago had covered, he said – and for his peers around town. But the Cowboys actually helped downtown at the Golden Nugget.

“It was a great day. The underdogs were great,” said Tony Miller, sportsbook director at the Nugget. “The Bills and the Eagles were monsters for us. Plus, we needed Dallas.”

Over at the Westgate Superbook, Jay Kornegay had similarly good results.

“It was a very solid day for us. We won our three biggest decisions – the Vikings, the Bills and the Eagles. We also won a share of the smaller games,” Kornegay said, noting the Superbook would have liked to see Chicago join that outright winners list. “Chicago outright would have made an impact. It will still end up a very solid day, but not a record day.”

A quartet of games – three from the early kickoffs – made for a strong Sunday at CG Technology books, including the M, Cosmopolitan and Venetian.

“We’ve had better days, but it’s right up there,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG. “We started ahead early after Arizona, Carolina and the Giants lost. Then we capped it off with the Eagles, which was our biggest decision of the day.”

Added Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point: “The Eagles and Broncos were the best games. It was a very good day, weekend and week. I was very happy with the handle and win.”

Miami falling short as 10-point home chalk in its 30-24 victory over Cleveland proved key for Wynn Las Vegas, which actually lost on the Cards-Bills decision due to some big late action on Buffalo.

“The Bengals were good for us. The Dolphins were good for us – the best one of the day,” said Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for the Wynn. “We had a good day, but we’ll give back half of it on the Cowboys tonight.”

Dallas notwithstanding, the bookmakers’ side of the counter won going away this Sunday.

“Not the best day ever,” Miller said, “but a good one.”

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, September 26


NFL Underdog trends thus far in 2016-17:

Home Dogs: 8-5 ATS (61.54%)
Away Dogs: 19-14 ATS (57.58%)
Overall Dogs: 27-19 ATS (58.7%)

[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Patriots QB situation continues to be muddled for one more week

Jacoby Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Jimmy Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder.

There’s only one more game left in Tom Brady’s suspension, and his team is unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. We talk about the opening lines on four key games this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (no line)

New England trotted out third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett for last Thursday’s game against Houston. It didn’t matter, as the Patriots rolled over the visiting Texans 27-0 in a pick ‘em game.

Meanwhile, Buffalo (1-2 SU and ATS) got one of the more stunning Week 3 wins, dumping Arizona 33-18 as a 5-point home underdog Sunday.

Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. So Sportsbook.ag is holding off on setting the line until Bill Belichick clarifies that situation – like it’ll matter for the 3-0 SU and ATS Pats.

“With the Pats dealing with so many issues at the quarterback position, we’re not going to open until we know more about who’s going to get the start for them,” Childs said. “Both Garoppolo and Brissett are listed as questionable, and I honestly don’t think either will be able to go. We’ll see, but as of now, this game is closed.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) was on the very short end of the most shocking Week 3 decision, getting railroaded 34-3 at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point chalk. Kansas City (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) drubbed the New York Jets 24-3 laying 3 points at home. But Childs has big expectations of the Steelers.

“With the Steelers at home off an embarrassing loss, we expect a very solid effort from them in this spot,” Childs said. “Throw in the fact that this is the Sunday night featured game, and we believe the public is going to be all over the Steelers in this one. That said, Pittsburgh definitely has some issues on defense, and the Chiefs were very impressive dominating a good Jets team.”

Sportsbook.ag oddmakers needed some time to settle on the number.

“We thought about opening Steelers -6, but felt that was too many points, so we opened them -5, which is a dead number. We’ll see how the market reacts to our opener,” Childs said. “We can easily get to 6 if we get flooded with Steelers money, and if sharp money backs the Chiefs and takes the points, then we’ll quickly get down to 4.5 or 4.

“Again, 5 being a dead number, we’ve got a lot of wiggle room to maneuver, with little chance of getting sided or middled.”

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)

Cam Newton and Co. suffered a stunning Week 2 loss, as well, with the reigning NFC champion Panthers (1-2 SU and ATS) falling 22-10 as 6-point home faves against Minnesota. Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS) still has to get in its Week 3 work, playing at New Orleans in the Monday nighter.

“This is a tough number to hang, because we really don’t know how good the Falcons are. So much will depend on their game Monday night,” Childs said. “The Panthers have been such a public team for the past year, and we feel they’ll get the money here off a loss. I have the game power-rated Panthers -3, but knowing the public will be on them, we added the hook with an opener of Panthers -3½ and will charge a premium on the early Panthers money.”

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

In Sam Bradford, Minnesota has found a more than capable replacement for injured Teddy Bridgewater, and the Vikes’ defense is getting it done, too, en route to a 3-0 SU and ATS start. On Sunday, the Vikings upended defending NFC champion Carolina 22-10 as a 6-point road underdog.

New York (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) gave up a late field goal, followed by an interception in losing to Washington 29-27 giving 3.5 points at home.

“This was so close to this game being a matchup of undefeated teams, but the Giants couldn’t close out the Redskins on Sunday,” Childs said. “The Vikings have been flat-out dominant on defense this season. The Giants are much improved on defense, but they yielded a season-high 29 points on Sunday, so they still have plenty of work to do on that side of the ball.

“It’s a Monday night game, and US Bank Stadium is going to be nuts. Normally, home field in the NFL is worth close to 3 points; for the Vikings and this new stadium, we make their home edge 3.5 points. We have the Vikings power-rated a 1-point favorite, so tack on the 3.5 points for their home field, and we opened Vikings -4.5.”