Announcement

**Udog** · 09-20-2016, 10:15 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Key injuries are the main factor heading into Week 3

"(Jacoby Brissett) looked awful coming off the bench, and now he has to face a very good Texans defense led by J.J. Watt. Good luck, Jacoby!"

Injuries are clearly going to be a factor for oddsmakers in Week 3 of the NFL season. We talk about a few of this week’s opening lines with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag, and Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (+2.5)

The injury bug bit New England at the worst possible position – quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo, subbing while Tom Brady serves his four-game Deflategate suspension, suffered an injury to his right (throwing) shoulder in Sunday’s 31-24 home victory over Miami as a 5.5-point favorite.

Worse still, the Patriots (2-0 SU and ATS) are working on a short week, playing in the Thursday night contest. The Pats had to finish Sunday’s win with rookie Jacoby Brissett at QB, and wideout Julian Edelman was the emergency QB.

Meanwhile, Houston (2-0 SU and ATS) held off visiting Kansas City 19-12 Sunday as a 1-point underdog.

Because of New England’s QB situation, Childs opened Houston at -2.5 and expects that number might head up.

“Wow. This is the line we had to adjust the most, with Garoppolo going down and third-stringer Jacoby Brissett making his first start,” Childs said. “He looked awful coming off the bench, and now he has to face a very good Texans defense led by J.J. Watt. Good luck, Jacoby!

“We opened Texans -2.5, and I have a feeling we’ll be getting to them as a solid 3-point favorite sooner rather than later.”

CG also hung a line of Texans -2.5 at its sportsbooks, including The Cosmopolitan, M and Venetian.

“With the Patriots having questions at quarterback and likely no Rob Gronkowski, they are home ‘dogs,” Simbal said.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)

Defending NFC champion Carolina (1-1 SU and ATS) rebounded from its season-opening loss at Denver by rolling past San Francisco 46-27 laying 12 points at home Sunday. Meanwhile, Minnesota knocked off Green Bay 17-14 catching 1 point at home, but lost Adrian Peterson to a knee injury.

“The Panthers are slightly more than a field goal better than the Vikings, and Carolina takes on an extra 3 points for playing at home,” Simbal said.

Sportsbook.ag held off on its opening number because of Minnesota playing Sunday night.

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

The defending Super Bowl champion Broncos have picked up where they left off last year, with a dominant defense keying a 2-0 SU and ATS start. On Sunday, Denver had a pick-six and a fumble recovery for a touchdown that put away Indianapolis in a 34-20 win as a 6-point home fave.

Cincinnati (1-1 SU and ATS) fell at Pittsburgh 24-16 Sunday as a 3-point pup.

Sportsbook.ag installed Cincy as a 3.5-point chalk, but news later came out that Bengals QB Andy Dalton is questionable with an apparent ankle injury. So Childs took the game down late Sunday evening.

“It’s one of the better games, featuring two teams that were in the playoffs last year and with playoff expectations this year,” Childs said. “I’m certain the public will support the Broncos here, and the sharps are going to back the favorite (pending Dalton’s status).

“Most sharp bettors love fading rookie quarterbacks making their first road start, and that’s what the Broncos will be doing on Sunday. While Trevor Siemian isn’t a rookie, it’s his first road start, and I see him struggling here in this spot.”

Added Simbal, who also opened Cincinnati at -3.5: “It’s two very evenly matched teams, so the home team gets the home-field advantage edge.”

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4)

The Giants are out of the gate 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) with a second tight victory in as many weeks. New York held off New Orleans 16-13, failing to cash as a 3.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, Washington (0-2 SU and ATS) is still seeking its first win after Sunday’s 27-23 setback to Dallas as a 3.5-point home chalk.

“The ‘Skins are in a must, must-win spot, starting the season 0-2, with both those losses at home,” Childs said. “The Giants made a ton of offseason moves to improve their defense, and so far it’s paid off, holding their two opponents this season to just 19 and 13 points. Eli Manning really hasn’t lit the world on fire so far, and that’s a bit surprising, because he has weapons galore, especially at wide receiver.

“That said, it’s a heated NFC East rivalry game, and we hung the Giants -4. I suspect the public will fade the 0-2 ‘Skins and back the undefeated Giants. I see this game closing at 4.5.”

At CG books, the number opened at Giants -3.5.

“The Giants closed -4.5 (at CG books) against New Orleans,” Simbal said. “Washington is a point better than the Saints right now, so 3.5 is the result.”

**Udog** · 09-20-2016, 10:15 AM

NFL Week 3 line watch: The Buffalo Bills are in big trouble

Is Rex Ryan already playing out the string in western New York? Ryan might be on thin ice even before the ice arrives in Buffalo.

Game to bet now

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (+4)

Is Rex Ryan already playing out the string in western New York? Ryan might be on thin ice even before the ice arrives in Buffalo. The Bills are 0-2 and already two games back in the AFC East, and now face the Cardinals and Patriots in back-to-back games. If Buffalo isn’t at least competitive, the pressure will certainly be on ownership to make a mid-season change. The Cardinals head east with tons of momentum after crushing Tampa Bay by 33 in Week 2, and now begin the soft underbelly of their schedule (Bills, Rams, 49ers and Jets). The game opened at Buffalo +4, and if you’re with the vast majority of early bettors who like the Cardinals, best get your wager down before the number goes to 4½ or 5.

Game to wait on

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (+2.5)

Lots to look here as the Texans play their first road game of the year. New England will have had only a few days to get third-string rookie QB Jacoby Brissett up to speed in the wake of Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulder injury. And what happens if Brissett goes down? Also, will Rob Gronkowski play? What about LB Dont’a Hightower, whose absence was clearly felt last Sunday in the second half against Miami? If the Patriots plan on a light workload for Brissett and hope to run the ball with workhorse LeGarrette Blount (29 carries/123 yards vs. the Dolphins), be advised the Texans are more than pretty good against the run. If you like NE in this one, at 2.5 it might be a good idea to hold on until just before kickoff to see if Texans money pushes the number to 3.

Total to watch

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (51.5)

The 1-1 Chargers and the 0-2 Colts are both high-scoring teams with suspect defenses. In fact, the four games involving these teams have produced a total of 230 points. The sample is obviously small, but Indy is on a pace to give up 584 points – which would be 108 more than the worst defensive team in the league (New Orleans) allowed last season. Adding fuel to the fire is that San Diego has scored the second-most points in the league this season, just one fewer than Carolina. The total here opened at 50.5 and was quickly bet up to 51.5.

**Udog** · 09-20-2016, 10:16 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 22

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HOUSTON (2 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 0) - 9/22/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 87-49 ATS (+33.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 92-66 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 174-133 ATS (+27.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 25

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DENVER (2 - 0) at CINCINNATI (1 - 1) - 9/25/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 1-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (1 - 1) at TENNESSEE (1 - 1) - 9/25/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 40-76 ATS (-43.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-24 ATS (-18.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (1 - 1) at BUFFALO (0 - 2) - 9/25/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (2 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 2) - 9/25/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 2) at MIAMI (0 - 2) - 9/25/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (0 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 0) - 9/25/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 53-78 ATS (-32.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (1 - 1) at GREEN BAY (1 - 1) - 9/25/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 126-162 ATS (-52.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 0) at CAROLINA (1 - 1) - 9/25/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 74-49 ATS (+20.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 155-118 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CAROLINA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (1 - 1) - 9/25/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA RAMS (1 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 9/25/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 172-215 ATS (-64.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 172-215 ATS (-64.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 82-110 ATS (-39.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 16-34 ATS (-21.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 124-170 ATS (-63.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS is 56-84 ATS (-36.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in September games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 2-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 2-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 0) - 9/25/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (1 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 1) - 9/25/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (1 - 1) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 2) - 9/25/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 26-3 ATS (+22.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (0 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 9/25/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, September 26

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ATLANTA (1 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) - 9/26/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-20-2016, 10:17 AM

NFL

Week 3

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 22

8:25 PM
HOUSTON vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing New England
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New England
New England is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Houston

Sunday, September 25

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. MIAMI
Cleveland is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 8 games
Jacksonville is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Washington is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home
NY Giants are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against Washington

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arizona's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CAROLINA
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 6 games

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. CINCINNATI
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Denver is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. TENNESSEE
Oakland is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games on the road
Oakland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games

4:05 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. TAMPA BAY
Los Angeles is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Los Angeles
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
NY JETS vs. KANSAS CITY
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing Kansas City
NY Jets are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games
Kansas City is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets

4:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
San Diego is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
San Diego is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against San Diego
Indianapolis is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing San Diego

4:25 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Chicago is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

Monday, September 26

8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

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**Udog** · 09-21-2016, 01:11 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 3

Thurs – Sept. 22

Houston at New England, 8:25 PM ET
Houston: 47-27 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3
New England: 12-3 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Sun – Sept. 25

Denver at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM ET
Denver: 6-0 ATS as an underdog
Cincinnati: 31-49 ATS in home games in the first half of the season

Oakland at Tennessee, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 6-0 ATS as a road underdog
Tennessee: 1-8 ATS off a non-conference game

Arizona at Buffalo, 1:00 PM ET
Arizona: 3-12 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more
Buffalo: 49-27 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Baltimore at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore: 19-5 UNDER after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite
Jacksonville: 9-22 ATS in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game

Cleveland at Miami, 1:00 PM ET
Cleveland: 4-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses
Miami: 15-32 ATS after a 2 game road trip

Washington at NY Giants, 1:00 PM ET
Washington: 14-28 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game
New York: 61-39 ATS off a home win

Detroit at Green Bay, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 5-14 ATS off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less
Green Bay: 10-2 ATS off a division game

Minnesota at Carolina, 1:00 PM ET
Minnesota: 8-1 ATS in road lined games
Carolina: 10-2 OVER after a win by 10 or more points

San Francisco at Seattle, 4:05 PM ET
San Francisco: 1-10 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42
Seattle: 40-19 ATS after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay, 4:05 PM ET
Los Angeles: 0-6 ATS in road games off a division game
Tampa Bay: 19-7 UNDER in home games against NFC West division opponents

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia, 4:25 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 10-2 UNDER in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
Philadelphia: 0-7 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

NY Jets at Kansas City, 4:25 PM ET
New York: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
Kansas City: 14-4 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

San Diego at Indianapolis, 4:25 PM ET
San Diego: 24-10 ATS in dome games
Indianapolis: 0-6 ATS in the first month of the season

Chicago at Dallas, 8:30 PM ET
Chicago: 25-12 UNDER in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Dallas: 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49

Mon – Sept. 26

Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:30 PM ET
Atlanta: 8-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
New Orleans: 6-15 ATS as a favorite

**Udog** · 09-21-2016, 10:02 PM

NFL Week 3 lines that make you go hmmm...

The Jets looked great last Thursday and now have extra time to prepare for a shaky Kansas City squad in Week 3.

It’s hard to believe we’re already heading into Week 3 of the NFL season – a point in which books and bettors get a tighter grasp on the league’s 32 teams. Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 3:

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (+1, 40.5)

Pointspreads are nothing more than an attempt to equal out the betting action. They neither tell us how much a team is going to win by, let alone, who’s going to win. We all know there are a variety of factors that lead to a line’s opening and closing. One of the most important in any sport is health.

Thursday’s game between Houston and New England will be a good one. New England’s drama at the quarterback position continues with the Patriots using their third-string QB Jacoby Brissett. Although he proved more than capable of sustaining a 21-point lead last Sunday, the fact remains the offense was limited and Miami was able to take advantage.

The line opened at Houston -1.5 and quickly rose to -2.5 before the sun set in Nevada, eventually settling around Texans -1. Bettors took advantage of the low figure knowing that the Patriots would be at a distinct disadvantage with few days to prepare. This will not be about Brissett’s ability to memorize plays, but the limited time he has to get his timing down with receivers and the offensive line.

What’s holding the line down is New England’s ability to keep the “W’s” coming. That early perception, in light of the Pats’ success, is that it’s to your advantage to step in and take the road favorites as early as you can.

New England is playing a tough game of patchwork against a very strong defensive team that is capable of scoring enough points to take this one. A key factor to fear would be the return of Rob Gronkowski, but be that as it may, there’s value with Houston in this spot and believers should take the number before it goes up again.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-4.5, 46.5)

I watched the N.Y. Giants/New Orleans game from kickoff to final gun and there were so many reasons why G-Men backers should have been beaming when the game was over. The real facts of the game were that the Giants turned the ball over three times in the first half and settled for a field goal instead of the touchdown in the final moments.

New York did display some awesome defense which bottled up an explosive Saints team. Drew Brees did have a few drops by his receivers but no doubt the Giants were hitting hard, were quicker to the ball, and were much more explosive getting to their tackles on the defensive end.

Washington QB Kirk Cousins is having a little regression in his output, just as we predicted back in Week 1. Just one touchdown thrown compared to three picks has spelled doom so far.

The opening line came out at New York -4 and has slowly made its way to -4.5 at many places already. This seems a bit low and I agree with the early path this is taking. As a result, we encourage Giants fans to grab this as early as you can.

I thought this game would have opened at -6. Reason being: the Redskins have been awful defensively so far and, given the right situation, a stagnate N.Y. offense should be able to out run Washington’s porous defensive schemes. Momentum has to be with New York here as it could really put some distance between them and Washington in the standings after just three weeks.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 43.5)

The Jets will be heading to Kansas City this weekend and, by all accounts, New York has played very well under quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has performed above and beyond so far this season.

This line opened at Kansas City -3.5 which really was a puzzling opener and bettors scooped up the hook immediately but we don’t think this is the end of the Jets money just yet. I would have thought this game would have opened closer to -2 and possibly gone down from there.

Standing at -3, bettors have the advantage of knowing sportsbooks will stay there awhile before jumping to the -2.5 later this week. You don’t have to rush to get this one but the tendency of this line will be hedging down before it will go up, so be aware if you’re looking for value on the Jets.

New York is capable of winning this game outright as Kansas City had to overcome a slow start in Week 1 to take the opener in overtime versus San Diego and then had trouble with a good defensive team in Houston for a Week 2 loss. The Jets are a very similar foe.

Jets fans should also like that New York has had an extended period of rest before Week 3, having played Buffalo last Thursday night. That brings us back to health as an all-important factor when looking at a line or potential performance expectation. All signs point to a quality game by New York and with the line at three, it’s hard to pass up the extra bounty of points.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 45)

Chicago is at Dallas this weekend and you may have to strike quickly on this last game as the line is in limited reach in Nevada but is up outside the betting region. The opening points ranged from Dallas -4.5 to -5 at four Nevada books, but this line should probably be at a touchdown minimum particularly if Cutler is bagged for the game. The Bears seem in disarray with losses mounting due to a stalling offense that has generated 14 points in each of their first two contests.

Dallas got off the schneid and picked up a big win in Washington this past weekend and should have a big emotional lift coming back home against the lowly Bears. Health again plays into this one and the Bears will have to quickly adjust their playcalling with another QB under center. All things into account, the value is if you can grab the bad line milling about in the Nevada market. What you may be seeing is a game off the board or a higher number. Call your uncle Morty to get down on the -4.5 or five.

**Udog** · 09-21-2016, 10:02 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday's Game
Texans (2-0) @ Patriots (2-0)– Rookie QB Brissett makes first NFL start here; Garropolo will be a backup- they didn’t sign another QB (WR Edelman was QB in college). Tough spot for Texans; long travel with short week in their road opener. Houston won its first two games at home, not allowing a TD in 2nd half of either game. Patriots scored TD on first drive of all four halves so far, winning first two games 23-21/31-24. New England won last four series games, three by 13+; they won 27-6 (-5) in Houston LY, outgaining Texans 313-189. Houston is 0-3 in Foxboro, losing all three by 13+. Houston coach O’Brien is a former Patriot QB coach. Brissett was 15-11 as a starter at NC State last two years. Texans won four of last five road openers. Over last 8+ years, Patriots are 3-0 as a home underdog. Houston is 4-0 as a road favorite under O’Brien.

**Udog** · 09-21-2016, 10:02 PM

NFL

Thursday, September 22

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Thursday Night NFL betting preview: Texans at Patriots
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The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six Thursday Night games.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (Pick, 40.5)

Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien likely isn't going to shed a tear for the plight of former boss Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots, who are expected to start third-round rookie Jacoby Brissett in Thursday's game at Foxborough, Mass. After enduring the round and round of their own quarterback carousel last year, the Texans have welcomed the stability afforded by pricey offseason acquisition Brock Osweiler while the Patriots have shuffled signal callers in the wake of Tom Brady's suspension and Jimmy Garoppolo's shoulder injury.

"When Jacoby went in there (Sunday), I thought he handled the game really well, good poise," O'Brien said of Brissett, who completed 6-of-9 passes for 92 yards in Sunday's 31-24 victory over Miami. "We will continue to study. We will work hard, just like they are working hard, and try to do the best we can to put together a good game plan." Defense has been the name of the game for Houston, which has yielded just 26 points (NFL third-best), 274.5 yards allowed (third-best) and 178.5 passing yards (fourth-best). Three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt collected 1.5 sacks in a 19-12 triumph over Kansas City on Sunday and linebacker Whitney Mercilus has two this season and 17 in his last 14 games overall.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Patriots opened this AFC matchup as 2.5-point home pups and despite the uncertainty at quarterback, bettors have moved this game back to a Pick'em. The total opened at 40.5 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Texans (-1) - Patritos (-0.5) + home field (-3) = Patriots -2.5

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football in Foxborough. The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 60's for the Thursday nighter.

INJURY REPORT:

Texans - P S. Lechler (probable Thursday, back), T D. Newton (questionable Thursday, knee), G J. Allen (questionable Thursday, calf), WR B. Miller (doutbful Thursday, hamstring), LB B. Cushing (out Thursday, knee).

Patriots - LB J. Freeny (questionable Thursday, shoulder), DL T. Flowers (questionable Thursday, shoulder), TE R. Gronkowski (questionable Thursday, hamstring), G J. Cooper (questionable Thursday, foot), LB D. Hightower (questionable Thursday, knee), QB J. Garappolo (questionable Thursday, shoulder), TE A. Darby (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), CB E. Rowe (doubtful Thursday, ankle).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Texans enter off a huge win, a 19-12 victory over Kansas City last Sunday. In the process they avenged a humiliating 30-0 home playoff loss to the Chiefs last season. They must now travel to Foxborough on short rest to take on a team that is 27-2 SU in their last 29 home games and they are favored to so so. No thanks. Pats or pass."

ABOUT THE TEXANS (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 O/U): Signed to a four-year, $72 million contract in the offseason, Osweiler has overcome a first-quarter interception in both games this season to build his rapport with Pro Bowl selection DeAndre Hopkins and first-round rookie Will Fuller. While Hopkins leads the team with 12 receptions and two touchdowns, Fuller (club-best 211 receiving yards) has stepped up in a hurry by becoming the third wideout to start his NFL career with two straight 100-yard receiving games. Lamar Miller gives O'Brien a constant presence in the backfield, as the offseason acquisition's 53 carries are second only to Pittsburgh's DeAngelo Williams (58) for most in the league.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-0, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U): While Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) has yet to make his season debut, fellow tight end Martellus Bennett has made his mark since being acquired from Chicago in March. The nine-year veteran has played on all but two offensive snaps over the first two games and reeled in a 20-yard touchdown on Sunday. Bruising running back LeGarrette Blount has rolled up 193 yards and two touchdowns this season, but exited a 27-6 victory over Houston on Dec. 13 last season with a hip ailment that landed him on injured reserve.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six Thursday games.
* Home team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Texans' last four Thursday games.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are backing the team minus the quarterback issues in this AFC matchup, with 55 percent of wagers on the Texans. As for the total, 56 percent of bettors are taking the Over in this spot.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 09-22-2016, 07:45 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Thursday, September 22

Houston @ New England

Game 301-302
September 22, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
133.816
New England
139.673
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 1
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(+1); Over

Sunday, September 25

Chicago @ Dallas

Game 487-488
September 25, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
126.512
Dallas
130.609
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 4
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 7 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+7 1/2); Under

San Diego @ Indianapolis

Game 485-486
September 25, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
132.822
Indianapolis
131.300
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 3
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(+3); Over

NY Jets @ Kansas City

Game 483-484
September 25, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
137.098
Kansas City
134.505
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 2 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3); Over

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia

Game 481-482
September 25, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
140.087
Philadelphia
133.008
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3 1/2); Under

Los Angeles @ Tampa Bay

Game 479-480
September 25, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
126.478
Tampa Bay
134.996
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 8 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 5
42
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-5); Under

San Francisco @ Seattle

Game 477-478
September 25, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
128.828
Seattle
136.039
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 7
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 9 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+9 1/2); Over

Minnesota @ Carolina

Game 475-476
September 25, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
133.811
Carolina
144.334
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 10 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-7); Over

Detroit @ Green Bay

Game 473-474
September 25, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
130.464
Green Bay
133.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 3
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 8
48
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+8); Under

Washington @ NY Giants

Game 471-472
September 25, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
134.280
NY Giants
132.275
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 4 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+4 1/2); Under

Cleveland @ Miami

Game 469-470
September 25, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
118.591
Miami
132.060
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 13 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 9 1/2
42 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(-9 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ Jacksonville

Game 467-468
September 25, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
128.049
Jacksonville
130.884
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 3
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 1
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+1); Under

Arizona @ Buffalo

Game 465-466
September 25, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
140.299
Buffalo
133.384
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-3 1/2); Under

Oakland @ Tennessee

Game 463-464
September 25, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
128.766
Tennessee
127.044
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 1 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+1 1/2); Over

Denver @ Cincinnati

Game 461-462
September 25, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
132.877
Cincinnati
138.459
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 5 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
41
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-3); Over

Monday, September 26

Atlanta @ New Orleans

Game 489-490
September 26, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
128.622
New Orleans
135.518
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 7
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-3); Over

**Udog** · 09-22-2016, 11:46 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Sunday's Games
Cardinals (2-0) @ Bills (0-2)– Buffalo fired its OC after 37-31 loss LW; not sure how that helps; they had three extra days to rest after loss to Jets. Curious to see how the play calling changes, since players/owner met about play calling before OC was fired. Arizona covered its last eight road openers (6-2 SU); under is 7-3 in their last 10 road openers- they split first two home games, despite a +7 turnover margin. Redbirds are 8-2 as road favorites in Arians era; they’re 4-6 vs spread coming off a win. Arizona covered its last eight road openers. Bills won five of last six series ganes. Cardinals are 1-3 in Buffalo, with last visit in ’04, only win in 1971. Buffalo covered nine of its last 11 games as a home underdog.

Raiders (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)– LeBeau’s defense allowed only one TD on 18 drives in first two games; they rallied from down 15-3 in 4th quarter to even record at Detroit. Oakland has allowed 69 points in two games, giving up eight TDs on 21 drives. Raiders allowed 1,035 TY in two games, giving up six TDs, four FGs in 11 red zone drives. Tennessee won three of last four series games; five of last seven series games were decided by 5 or less points. Raiders are 2-5 in Tennessee; they beat Titans 24-21 (-1) LY, outgaining them 407-249, converting 8-15 on 3rd down. Oakland covered six of its last seven games as a road underdog. Tennessee is 9-15-1 in its last 25 games as a home favorite.

Browns (0-2) @ Dolphins (0-2)– Cleveland blew 20-0 first quarter lead LW, now start 3rd QB in three weeks (USC rookie Kessler). Dolphins drop way down in class here, after losing to Seattle/Patriots- over last decade, they’re 11-26 as home favorites. Miami won three of its last four home openers, are 4-7 vs spread in last 11, with last seven HOs going over total. Cleveland ran ball for 265 yards in first two games- they were outscored 39-3 in second half of the games. Browns won four of last six series games, splitting last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. Five of last six series totals were 33 or less. Miami was outscored 30-6 in first half of its games; all four of their TDs came in second half of games.

Ravens (2-0) @ Jaguars (0-2)– Baltimore rallied back from down 20-0 in Cleveland LW; they outscored first two opponents 26-0 in second half, are 10-8-1 vs spread in last 19 road games. Jacksonville is 11-21-1 vs spread in its last 33 home games; they allowed 65 points in losing first two games. Jax is 3-2 in last five series games, beating Ravens 22-20 (+5) LY, in a game where Baltimore outgained them 397-258 but was -3 in turnovers. Ravens are 2-6 in last eight visits here, losing last two 30-2/12-7. Since ’12, Baltimore is 12-14-3 in games with spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, Jaguars are 8-15. NFL-wide, home teams are 10-10 vs spread in non-divisional games so far this season.

Lions (1-1) @ Packers (1-1)– Detroit blew 21-3 lead in opener, won it late, then blew 15-3 lead LW and lost at home to Titans. Lions snapped 21-game skid at Lambeau LY, then lost rematch on last play of game, on long Hail Mary pass- two games were decided by total of six points. Green Bay gained 294-263 TY in splitting first two road games- over last 7 years, Pack is 33-19-1 as a home favorite (9-5 in last 14 NFC North games)- they won eight of last nine home openers (6-2 last 8 at as favorite in HOs); four of their last five HOs went over total. Detroit is 6-11 as an underdog under Caldwell, 6-7 on road; last 8 years, they’re 6-10 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite.

Broncos (2-0) @ Bengals (1-1)– Cincy is 12-6-2 vs spread in last 20 games as home faves; they won last six regular season games the week after playing rival Steelers. First road start for Denver QB Siemian; last 6 years, Broncos are 8-10 as road underdogs. Denver won five of last six series games, going 3-2 in last five visits to Queen City- they beat Bengals 20-17 (-3.5) in OT LY. Cincy is 9-3 in last 12 home openers, winning last four- they’re 6-3-1 as favorites in HOs. Denver won its last three road openers, is 6-3 in last nine. Under is 9-4-1 in Broncos’ last 14 road openers, 7-1 in Bengals’ last eight HOs. Bengals had only 103 yards on ground in first two games, 690 passing- they’re 7-27 on third down, need more balance.

Vikings (2-0) @ Panthers (1-1)– Minnesota is 15-2 vs spread in its last 17 regular season games; Vikes are 10-3 as road dogs under Zimmer. Bradford was 22-31/254 in his first Minny start, nine days after his trade from Philly. Vikings forced six turnovers (+5) in their first two games- they won field position by 9-12 yards. Minnesota is 7-5 in series with four of last five decided by 10+ points; they’re 1-2 here, with last visit in ’11. Since 2013, Carolina is 13-4-2 as a home favorite; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games. Panthers are 16-30 on 3rd down this year; they’ve outrushed opponents 333-213. One of Bradford’s many season-ending injuries happened here, when he played for the Rams.

Redskins (0-2) @ Giants (2-0)– Redskins’ QB Cousins is in contract year, on hot seat after 0-2 start; he threw awful end zone INT in huge spot vs Dallas LW. Washington lost its last three road openers by 18-11-11 points; they’re 8-14 as road underdog last three years, 7-9 under Grudne. Supposedly Josh Norman will shadow Odell Beckham all over the field. Big Blue won five of last six series games, including last four here, by 4-14-11-11 points. Giants are 9-8 as home favorites last 3+ years; they scored only 13 points in four visits to red zone vs Redskins LY. Big Blue outgained Saints by 129 yards LW but didn’t score offensive TD- their only TD was on blocked FG. Redskins threw 92 passes, ran ball 29 times in their first two games- not good.

Rams (1-1) @ Buccaneers (1-1)– Rams haven’t scored TD on 22 drives; they’re 6-27 on 3rd down- they did get 2+ first downs on each of last five drives LW to help win field position (+7 yards) as they held on to upset Seattle. Tampa Bay allowed 64 points, 637 PY in splitting pair of road games to start year. Bucs lost last three home openers; they scored 14.5 ppg in last four. Under is 16-7-1 in their last 24 HOs. LA is 7-12-1 in last 20 games as a road underdog, 2-6 in game following its last eight upset wins. TB was 1-6 as home favorite last two years; they’re 21-36-1 vs spread at home the last seven years. Rams won last four series games, winning 28-13/19-17 in last two visits here- they beat Bucs 31-23 in St Louis LY.

49ers (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)– Wilson’s ankle is an issue for Seahawks, who scored one TD on 22 drives in first two games- they lost field position by 7-10 yards. Seattle is 7-1 in last eight series games, including last four by combined 84-26; 49ers lost last five visits here, with four of five by 10+ points. Seahawks ran ball for 431 yards in two wins over Niners LY. SF has six takeaways (+2) in first two games this year. Seattle is 15-6 in its last 21 games as an NFC West home favorite; 49ers are 1-7 as an NFC West road dog- they’re 3-9 in last 12 games as a road dog overall. Hawks are 25-14 in last 39 games as a home favorite overall. NFL-wide, favorites in divisional games are 3-8 this season, 3-4 at home.

Jets (1-1) @ Chiefs (1-1)– Three extra days of rest for Jets after Thursday win in Buffalo; Gang Green is 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight games. Jets are 4-0-1 vs spread as underdogs in Bowles era (2-0 this year). Chiefs kicked four FGs in loss at Houston LW with no TDs, after rallying back from down 24-3 to win opener- they’ve been outscored 34-6 in first half of games. Last 8+ years, KC is 13-24 as a home favorite, 10-13 under Reid. Home team won last five series games; Jets lost 27-7/24-10 in last two visits here- their last win in Arrowhead was in 1998. NFL-wide, non-divisional home favorites are 8-8 vs spread this year. Under is 15-10 in games at Arrowhead since Reid has been Chiefs’ coach.

Chargers (1-1) @ Colts (0-2)– Chargers outscored first two opponents 42-3 in first half of games. San Diego pounded Jags LW, after blowing 24-3 lead in Arrowhead in opener. Bolts are 17-6-1 as road underdogs under McCoy, 7-9-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points. San Diego DC John Pagano visits his brother Chuck, Indy’s HC.Colts are 2-5 in last seven games as home favorite; they allowed 73 points in losing first two tilts, running for only 165 yards. Colts are 9-10-1 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Chargers won six of last seven series games, winning last three over Colts by 6-22-10 points- they’ve won last three visits to Indiana, but last one was six years ago.

Steelers (2-0) @ Eagles (2-0)– Philly hasn’t turned ball over yet, won field position in first two games by 17-12 yards, as rookie QB Wentz plays like a vet. Eagle defense also KO’d #1 QB for both opponents. Since 2010, Iggles are 0-8 vs spread as a home underdog. Over last 8+ years, Steelers are 12-20-1 as road favorites- they’re 16-31 on 3rd down this year, have allowed only two TDs in winning first two games by 22-8 points. Teams split last six series games; Pitt lost last eight visits here, with last visit in ’08, last win at Franklin Field in 1965. Under is 10-6 in Steelers’ last sixteen road games Over last 8+ years, favorites are 26-14 vs spread in Eagles’ non-divisional home games.

Bears (0-2) @ Cowboys (1-1)– Not only is Chicago off to dismal 0-2 start, QB Cutler hurt his right (passing) thumb Monday, isn’t expected to play here, leaving Hoyer (15-11 in 26 career starts) as starting QB, with Matt Barkley likely backup. Road team won three of last four series games; Chicago won 27-20/34-18 in last two visits here. Only second half points Bears have scored came on punt return when issue had been decided. Chicago is 5-3-1 as a road dog under Fox; they’re 7-3 in last 10 as non-divisional road dog. Dallas split first two games, which were decided by total of 5 points; over last six years, Cowboys are 8-27 as a home favorite, 5-16 in non-divisional games.

Monday's Game
Falcons (1-1) @ Saints (0-2)– New Orleans is 15-5 in last 20 games of this rivalry; they beat Falcons 31-21/20-17 LY. Atlanta lost four of its last five visits here. Saints lost first couple games by total of 4 points- they didn’t allow offensive TD LW, after giving up 35 points to Oakland in home opener. NO is 4-10-1 in last 15 games as a home favorite. Falcons scored 59 points in splitting first two games; they’re 6-4 in last ten games as a road dog- they have allowed eight TDs in first two games, four on plays of 23+ yards. Saints are 7-10-3 in last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points. Underdogs are 12-2 vs spread in Atlanta’s last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points.

**Udog** · 09-22-2016, 11:46 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder for this week’s games………

— Arizona covered its first road game the last eight years.

— Bengals are 13-6-1 in last 20 games as a home favorite.

— Cowboys are 5-16 as a non-divisional home favorite.

— 49ers are 1-7 in last eight games as a divisional road underdog.

— Ravens are 2-10-2 vs spread in last 14 games as a favorite.

— Falcons are 3-11 vs spread in their last 14 games.

**Udog** · 09-25-2016, 09:08 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Top 6 selections in the Westgate Super Contest this week:

6) Miami Dolphins (395) -9.5

5) San Diego Chargers (418) +3

4) Jacksonville Jaguars (477) even

3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (502) -5.5

2) Arizona Cardinals (536) -4

1) Pittsburgh Steelers (663) -3.5
Top 6 so far this year: 4-8 vs spread

Through two weeks of the Westgate Super Contest, out of 1,800 people in it, two entrants are 10-0; two are 0-10. Here are their Week 3 picks:

10-0 people:
first 10-0 guy: Bills-Jaguars-Packers-Chiefs-Bears
other 10-0 guy: Broncos-Raiders-Steelers-Jets-Chargers

0-10 people:
first 0-10 guy: Bengals-Titans-Bills-Eagles-Cowboys
other 0-10 guy: Raiders-Cardinals-Giants-Steelers-Cowboys

**Udog** · 09-25-2016, 09:13 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3

Without Adrian Peterson running the ball the Vikings will be passing even more heading into a Week 3 showdown with Carolina.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 43)

Vikings’ pass reliance vs. Panthers’ struggling safeties

Two significant developments have turned the Minnesota offense completely upside-down. The loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a devastating leg injury prompted the Vikings to cough up a first-round pick for Sam Bradford. And who knows how the team will react after learning that running back Adrian Peterson is out for what could be several months with a torn meniscus.

The result should be a much more balanced passing attack than the one the Vikings used last season, when they threw on just over 51 percent of their offensive plays. They're already up to 57.6 percent through two games this season, and passed on 61.4 percent of their plays in Bradford's first game in a Vikings uniform last week. Look for that number to hold or even rise now that Peterson is on the shelf for a while.

They'll have their hands full in Carolina this weekend, but the Panthers' secondary hasn't been the same since saying goodbye to Josh Norman in the offseason. While the cornerbacks have been decent - particularly right-side specialist Bene Benwikere - the safety tandem of Kurt Coleman (41.9) and Tre Boston (54.9) have both posted failing grades to date, according to Pro Football Focus. Look for Bradford and his receiving corps to take advantage.

Daily fantasy watch: Stefon Diggs

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8, 48)

Lions' banged-up backfield vs. Packers' stifling run defense

The Vikings aren’t the only team dealing with running back issues. Division rival Detroit will be looking at a contingency plan for at least the next eight weeks after losing primary rusher Ameer Abdullah to a foot injury. And judging by how well the Packers have defended the run this season, don't expect Detroit to make any inroads on the ground this weekend.

Green Bay has limited opponents to just 78 yards on 48 carries through two games - an absurd 1.6 YPC average that is far and away the lowest in football. They've held foes to a long run of 12 yards while allowing only one touchdown. Tackles Mike Daniels (82.4) and Julius Peppers (78.3) have been outstanding, while defensive end Nick Perry (84.3) has been one of the best at his position. Clay Matthews (37.4) has struggled, but he should get much better.

The Lions' offensive line has impressed early on, but that won't matter with a backfield consisting of two players, Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington, who have just one game of 10-plus carries on their combined resume. Riddick isn't a good between-the-tackles runner, and Washington is simply too raw to be counted on for big things. Look for the Packers to obliterate the Lions' ground game, forcing Matthew Stafford to air it out early and often.

Daily fantasy watch: Marvin Jones

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 47.5)

Ravens' impressive O-line vs. Jaguars' not-so-improved D

Much of the focus in this one will be on the quarterbacks, with Ravens veteran Joe Flacco and his pass-heavy attack taking on Jaguars counterpart Blake Bortles and his high-octane offense. But when it comes to which signal caller will fare better, the line play appears to be slanted heavily in favor of visiting Baltimore. And that could very well decide things in a matchup that oddsmakers believe will be a tight one.

The Ravens' offensive line has been solid this season, led once again by elite right guard Marshal Yanda (87.6), who is actually grading slightly lower than he has the past two seasons. Tackles Ronnie Stanley (77.0) and Ricky Wagner (81.0) have also held their own, helping limit Flacco to four sacks over the first two games. The line is by no means perfect, but it has been good enough to help propel the team to a 2-0 start.

By comparison, the Jaguars' defensive front has been a disaster through two games, allowing a combined 65 points to the Packers and San Diego Chargers. Three of the team's four starters at guard or tackle are scoring lower than 49 on PFF, and even defensive tackle Malik Jackson (77.8) has seen his effectiveness wane compared to his previous two seasons. Look for Flacco to have a clean pocket, and for the Baltimore running backs to chew up good chunks of yardage.

Daily fantasy watch: Justin Forsett

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 40.5)

49ers' aversion to penalties vs. Seahawks' flag fiesta

The 49ers are looking to bounce back from last week's 46-27 thumping at the hands of the Carolina Panthers, and they'll be in tough despite Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson still working his way back to 100 percent from a high ankle sprain. But San Francisco has been one of the more disciplined teams in the NFL through two weeks, and that philosophy could lead to strong field position against a Seattle team that needs some work on its discipline.

Despite participating in a league-high 308 plays, the 49ers have had just eight accepted penalties (tied for 30th in the NFL) for 60 accepted yards (31st). Add in the one declined penalty they've incurred, and their nine total penalties ranks last in the league. The list includes three offensive holding calls (one declined), one face mask flag, two illegal contacts and just one false start. Through two games, San Francisco hasn't had a single pass interference call on either side of the ball.

By comparison, Seattle has incurred 18 penalties (fifth-most) for 183 accepted yards (third-most). The Seahawks were whistled for a whopping 10 penalties totaling 114 yards in their 9-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, with Kam Chancellor picking up a pass interference and face mask call and Jermaine Kearse nailed for a pair of offensive pass interference flags. This is nothing new for the Seahawks, who ranked seventh in penalties in 2015, first in 2014, first in 2013, fourth in 2012, second in 2011. A similar lack of discipline Sunday could mean big field position gains for the 49ers, which might translate to points.

Daily fantasy watch: Torrey Smith

**Udog** · 09-25-2016, 11:02 AM

Essential Week 3 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Pittsburgh will try and improve to 3-0 SU/ATS when they visit fellow undefeated Philadelphia Sunday.

Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and with so many games on the slate it can be hard to handicap them all. But fear not NFL bettors, we have you covered with our quick hitting breakdown of every game on the schedule.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (+3.5, 47)

* Arizona rebounded from its last-second loss against New England in its opener to dismantle Jameis Winston and the Bucs last week. The Cardinals picked off Winston four times, two of them by Marcus Cooper, and Carson Palmer threw three scoring passes despite sitting out most of the fourth quarter.

* Rex Ryan's defense continues to be the biggest problem and it allowed 493 yards in last week's loss and rank 22nd in the league in total defense. Buffalo fired offensive coordinate Greg Roman after the team's 0-2 start, while top wideout Sammy Watkins, has just six catches for 63 yards on the season while battling a foot injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Bills opened this game as 4-point home dogs, but have actually seen some support since then, with the line moving to Bills +3.5. The total opened at 47 and has not moved off the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
* Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Cardinals' last six games overall.
* Over is 6-2 in Bills' last eight games following a straight up loss.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7, 43)

* The Vikings may have lost their starting backfield in less than three weeks, but that doesn't take away from the fact that they have been the best bet in the NFL since the start of the 2015 season, going 16-3 ATS (including playoffs) in that span, including their last seven games overall.

* Carolina had some trouble putting away San Francisco in last week’s 46-27 victory, as the Panthers rolled up 529 yards but also committed four turnovers. Running back Jonathan Stewart is sidelined by a hamstring injury, meaning Fozzy Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne will pick up the slack for the league’s leading rushing attack.

LINE HISTORY: Carolina opened this NFC showdown favored by 7.5-points and have since been bet down to Panthers -7. The total hasn't moved off its opening number of 43.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus NFC opponents.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Vikings' last six road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Panthers last four home games.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 41.5)

* Denver's defense has been stellar, yielding an average of 293 yards per game while tying Seattle for the first in the league with 4.4 allowed per play. Von Miller has been a major contributor to those numbers as he leads the NFL with four sacks, including three - and a forced fumble - in last week's victory over Indianapolis en route to being named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week. They suffered a big loss however, as DeMarcus Ware will miss Sunday's contest after undergoing surgery to have plates inserted in the broken forearm he suffered against the Colts last week.

* Cincinnati will need to shore up against the run as it enters the contest last in the league with an average of 138 rushing yards allowed, although it has yet to surrender a touchdown on the ground. Giovani Bernard was Andy Dalton's favorite target last week, making a career-high nine catches out of the backfield while recording his second 100-yard receiving performance in the NFL. Tight end Tyler Eifert, who has yet to play this season due to an ankle injury, participated in practice on a limited basis Wednesday but likely will miss the game against Denver.

LINE HISTORY: The Bengals opened this showdown of AFC contenders favored by a field goal and have been bet up to Bengals -3. The total opened at a low 41 and has been bet up slightly to 41.5.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 4-1 in Broncos last five games following a ATS win.
* Under is 5-1 in Bengals last six games overall.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7, 48)

* While Detroit's offense has relied primarily on the passing game, Matt Stafford will be facing a larger burden after starting running back Ameer Abdullah underwent foot surgery and was placed on injured reserve. Theo Riddick will get first crack at taking over as the lead back, although he has thrived in more of a pass-catching role, tying for the league lead among running backs in 2015 with 80 receptions.

* The popular school of thought was that Aaron Rodgers would return to his MVP level with the return of top wide receiver Jordy Nelson after missing the entire 2015 season, but he has thrown for a combined 412 yards and has a completing percentage of 57.1 over the first two games. Nelson has a touchdown reception in each of the first two games, but he and fellow wideout Randall Cobb are each averaging under 10 yards on 11 catches apiece.

LINE HISTORY: The Packers opened as big 8.5-point favorites in this division rivalry, but the Lions have seen some sharp action and the line has moved to Packers -7. The total hasn't moved since opening at 48.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 14-5 in Lions' last 19 road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Packers' last six home games.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 47)

* Almost an afterthought as an offseason acquisition, wide receiver Mike Wallace has scored all three of Baltimore's touchdowns in the first two weeks of the season. The Ravens, however, have received little from their running game (23rd in NFL) with Justin Forsett and Terrance West combining for 152 yards on 47 carries with no scores.

* Quarterback Blake Bortles was one of the league's top passers last year but put up most of his gaudy numbers playing from behind. Last week was no different as Bortles had no touchdowns and three turnovers through three quarters as Jacksonville trailed 35-0. The Jaguars are tied for 28th in the league, allowing 32.5 points a game, and they could be missing cornerback Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and strong safety Johnathan Cyprien (knee/triceps). Running back Chris Ivory (medical issue) returned to practice this week for the first time since Sept. 9 and will be a big boost to the ground game if fit.

LINE HISTORY: This AFC matchup opened as a Pick'em, but since then bettors have supported the Ravens, moving the line to Baltimore -1. The total opened at 47.5 and has been bet down a half-point to the current number of 47.

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Jaguars last six games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-10, 42.5)

* The Cleveland Browns' starting quarterback carousel makes its fifth turn in as many contests and 26th in 17 years on Sunday as third-round rookie Cody Kessler gets the nod against the Miami Dolphins at renovated Hard Rock Stadium. Kessler's task will be that much harder after promising rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman sustained a hand injury in practice on Wednesday.

* Miami's 27th-ranked rushing attack has gone nowhere fast -- and offseason acquisition Arian Foster's groin injury certainly won't help matters. A combination of Jay Ajayi, rookie Kenyan Drake, Isaiah Pead and Damien Williams is expected to carry the mail for the Dolphins, whose leading rusher is actually Tannehill (52 yards). Top target Jarvis Landry had 10 receptions for 137 yards last week and leads the NFL with 17 catches, but former first-round wideout DeVante Parker (eight receptions, 106 yards in his season debut) has been limited in practice this week with an ailing hamstring.

LINE HISTORY: The Dolphins opened this game favored by a touchdown, but when the news came out Josh McCown wouldn't be playing, books readjusted the line to Miami -10. The total opened at 41.5 and has been bet up to 42.5.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
* Under is 6-0 in Browns' last six road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Dolphins' last six games following a SU loss.

Washington at New York Giants (-3.5, 46.5)

* Pro Bowl selections Odell Beckham Jr. and Josh Norman weren't on their best behavior during their last encounter at MetLife Stadium, but each star insisting they've moved on from the series of ugly incidents, Norman's intent shifts to getting his new team a much-needed win on Sunday when the Washington visits the New York Giants.

* Mild-mannered quarterback Eli Manning isn't interested in the sideshow accompanying Sunday's showdown, as evidenced by his advice to Beckham to "just go play football." Manning has done precisely that by throwing for 368 yards in last week's 16-13 win over New Orleans and will look to eclipse the 300-yard plateau for the third straight game at home.

LINE HISTORY: The G-Men opened this NFC East showdown as 4-point home faves and were bet as high as -4.5. Since then however, it has been mostly Washington money, bringing the line down to Giants -3. The total has only moved slightly, getting bet down to 46 from 46.5.

TRENDS:

* Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 7-0 in Redskins last seven games overall.
* Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings in New York.

Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (+1.5, 46.5)

* Derek Carr has passed for 618 yards and four touchdowns in his first two contests while Amari Cooper has made 11 catches for 208 yards but has yet to find the end zone. Carr has gotten off to a fine start this season as he entered Week 3 tied for the league lead with 58 completions without throwing an interception. Khalil Mack, who ranked second in the NFL last season with 15 sacks, remains in search of his first of 2016.

* The Titans will attempt to do something that they haven't achieved since 2013 - win back-to-back games - when they host the Raiders on Sunday. Tennessee has won only two of its last 17 home games, with both victories coming against Jacksonville. While the Titans have scored only 16 points in each of their first two games, their defense has done a stellar job keeping the opposition out of the end zone, joining Seattle as the only teams yet to allow two offensive touchdowns. Tennessee could be in for an offensive bonanza this week, however, as Oakland has allowed more than 1,000 yards over its first two contests.

LINE HISTORY: This AFC matchup opened as a Pick'em, but since then line jumped to Raiders -1 and has since moved to its current number of -1.5. The total opened at 47 and has been bet down slightly to the current number of 46.5.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Favorite is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Over is 6-0 in Raiders' last six games in September.
* Over is 5-1 in Titans' last six games in September.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-10, 41)

* San Francisco's dominant win over Los Angeles in Week 1 looked a bit more impressive after the Rams upset Seattle, but its defense was gouged for 46 points and 529 yards by the Carolina Panthers in last week's 46-27 setback. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert was held to 17-of-36 for 243 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions by the Panthers while running back Carlos Hyde managed only 34 yards on 14 carries after churning out 88 yards in the season opener.

* The Seahawks were bottled up by the same Rams that looked completely overmatched in a 28-0 drubbing at San Francisco in Week 1 and have put up 15 points in their first two games. Seattle's defense is in a familiar perch, leading the NFL in total defense (248.5) and points allowed (9.5), but the offense has been shockingly ineffective with the one touchdown in 22 possessions. Running back Thomas Rawls is off to a slow start with 25 yards on 19 carries and left last week's game with an injury, while Christine Michael has been effective with an average of 5.0 yards per carry, but he committed a costly fumble that blunted a comeback against the Rams.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened this game as big double digit faves, but the line hasn't moved off -10. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet up to 41.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in Seahawks' last eight games overall.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 42)

* Los Angeles traded up to the No. 1 pick in the draft to get quarterback Jared Goff, but Fisher insists the team only will play him when he's ready. In the meantime, Keenum ranks last in the NFL among 33 qualifying passers with a 57.8 rating and a 53.8 completion percentage and is guiding an offense that's trying to avoid joining the 1976 Buccaneers as the only teams in the NFL to fail to score a touchdown in the first three games. The weakness in the passing game is not doing any favors for running back Todd Gurley, who is averaging 2.7 yards per carry against defenses stacked to stop him.

* Tampa Bay lost leading rusher Doug Martin for the next three weeks to a hamstring injury and will lean on backup Charles Sims, with Jacquizz Rodgers as the backup. Sims managed 24 yards on nine carries last week at Arizona and has some experience with Jameis Winston in the passing game after hauling in 51 passes for 561 yards and four touchdowns last season. The Buccaneers' defense is struggling, allowing 64 points in the first two weeks, and has yet to force a turnover.

LINE HISTORY: This line opened with the Bucs favored by four points and were bet as high as -5. Since then, the number has returned to the opening number. The total for this game opened at 42 and hasn't moved off that number.

TRENDS:

* Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Rams are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay.
* Under is 4-0 in Rams last four versus NFC opponents.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5, 47)

* Much as he did a year ago when Le'Veon Bell's season ended prematurely due to injury, running back DeAngelo Williams is filling in spectacularly, piling up an NFL-high 237 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and adding another 10 catches and a score. Star wideout Antonio Brown, who reeled in 375 passes over the past three seasons, was limited to four receptions for 39 yards in last week's 24-16 win over Cincinnati but Roethlisberger completed passes to nine different receivers while connecting with Williams and both his tight ends, Jesse James and Xavier Grimble, on scoring strikes. Pittsburgh is yielding tons of yards through the air (347.5 ppg) but has permitted only 16 points in each of the first two games.

* Carson Wentz continues to make Philadelphia's decision to trade up and take him with the No. 2 overall pick out of FCS North Dakota State -- not to mention trading away incumbent Sam Bradford -- look wise by becoming the first rookie since the merger to win his first two starts without tossing an interception. Jordan Matthews is the top target for Wentz with 13 receptions and a score through two games while Trey Burton filled in nicely for injured tight end Zach Ertz last week with five catches for 49 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Mathews has rushed for three touchdowns but is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. The Eagles rank fifth against the pass but could again be without starting cornerback Leodis McKelvin (hamstring).

LINE HISTORY: Since opening at Eagles +4, the number has bounced back and forth between that and +3.5. The line is currently at Eagles +3.5. The total opened at 47 and has yet to move off that number.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games in September.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Under is 5-1 in Steelers' last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Eagles' last five games overall.

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 51)

* The Indianapolis Colts have allowed an NFL high 73 points and were shredded by opposing passers in their first two games and their secondary has allowed an average of 299 passing yards and yielded a combined 73.6 completion percentage to Matthew Stafford and Trevor Siemian in losses to Detroit and Denver over the first two weeks.

* The Chargers offense that put up 38 points in a blowout of Jacksonville last week, led by Philip Rivers' four touchdown passes. San Diego is not without injury concerns, and Rivers will have to dig deep into his bag of weapons after losing Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen to season-ending injuries. Melvin Gordon is stepping up in the absence of Woodhead and ran for 102 yards on a career-high 24 carries with a touchdown in the 38-14 win over the Jaguars.

LINE HISTORY: The Colts opened this AFC matchup as 2.5-point home faves, but were faded all the way to Colts -1. Since then the money has bounced back a bit on the Colts and currently sits at -1.5. The total opened at 50.5 and has been bet up to 51.

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Underdog is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Over is 7-2 in Colts last nine versus AFC opponents.

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 43)

* New York, which is a couple of missed Nick Folk kicks away from being 2-0, possesses one of the league’s top offensive units thus far. Ryan Fitzpatrick has a bevy of talented receivers in Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and the emergent Quincy Enunwa, and the addition of running back Matt Forte has provided more balance. The defense has been tough on the run, but the secondary has been susceptible, allowing more than 300 passing yards in each game.

* Kansas City has loads of weapons on offense, even with star running back Jamaal Charles having missed the first two games while recovering from last season's torn ACL. Spencer Ware has filled in admirably for Charles, while receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce give Alex Smith a pair of reliable targets. The defense has had a tough time stopping the run but has been stout with its back against the wall, as the Chiefs have allowed touchdowns on just 33.3 percent of opponents’ red-zone trips – fourth-best in the league.

LINE HISTORY: The Chiefs opened this game favored by a field goal at home, but have been bet down to -2.5. The total opened at 43.5 and has been bet down to 43.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 4-0 in Jets last four games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last seven games in September.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 22 - Monday, September 26)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 3 (Thursday, September 22 - Monday, September 26)

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