The Bum's 2016 NFL Sept. Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

Betting Recap - Week 3
September 26, 2016


Overall Notes

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 2 RESULTS

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 9-6

Against the Spread 7-8

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 9-6

Against the Spread 9-6

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 8-7


The largest underdogs to win straight up

Vikings (+6.5, ML +220) at Panthers, 22-10
Bills (+5.5, ML +200) vs. Cardinals, 33-18
Eagles (+4, ML +170) vs. Steelers, 34-3

The largest favorite to cover

Seahawks (-10.5) vs. 49ers, 37-18
Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Bears, 31-17
Packers (-6.5) vs. Lions, 34-27

Looking California

-- The Los Angeles Rams and Oakland Raiders posted road victories in Week 3. The Rams win might be the most surprising considering they entered the weekend with nine total points in two games, including ZERO touchdowns. RB Todd Gurley II accounted for two rushing scores himself in the Rams' 37-32 win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After getting blanked in Week 1, LA is 2-0 SU/ATS over the past two. The Raiders rebounded from a home loss last weekend, improving to 2-0 SU/ATS on the road this season.

Feeling Minnesota

-- The Minnesota Vikings lost superstar RB Adrian Peterson (knee surgery) until at least December, if not longer, to injury last weekend. They lost QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee) in the preseason. Trouble? What trouble? The Vikings used a suffocating defensive effort, sacking Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton eight times while picking him off twice to help the Vikes improve to 3-0 SU/ATS. Minnesota looks to keep it rolling with the New York Giants paying a visit to their new palace in downtown Minneapolis next Monday night.

Total Recall

-- The 'over' nipped the 'under' 8-7 in 15 games heading into Monday night's game featuring the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. In seven games between AFC foes, the 'under' finished 5-2. In five games between two NFC squads, the 'over' finished 5-1. In AFC vs. NFC games, the 'over/under' is 1-1. So far this season the 'over' is 9-7 in each of the first two weeks, and 8-7 in Week 3 heading into Monday.

-- In games with lines of 47 or more points, the 'over' went 3-2 in five Sunday games. The game with the highest line of Week 3, the Monday Night battle of the Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints (53.5), is expected to be a shootout.

-- The five games with the lowest totals on the board saw the 'over' go 4-1, with only the Thursday night game between the Houston Texans-New England Patriots (38.5) going 'under' thanks to Houston's goose egg. The 'under' is 3-0 in three games for the Texans, as they're averaging just 10.7 points per game (PPG) while allowing 17.7 PPG.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games in Week 3. Officially, the 'over/under' is 5-4 (55.5%) through 9 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears RB Jeremy Langford (ankle) was carted off in the second half of the Sunday night game at Dallas due to an ankle injury and he did not return.

-- Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (knee) tweaked his knee late in the win against the Bears and he is scheduled for an MRI Monday.

-- Dolphins TE Jordan Cameron (concussion) was forced out of Sunday's game against his old team, the Browns, due to a possible concussion.

-- 49ers TE Vance McDonald (hip) did not make it through the full game in Seattle due to a hip injury.

-- Packers TE Jared Cook (foot) was on crutches and wearing a walking boot after the team's victory against the Lions.

-- Seahawks QB Russell Wilson (knee) checked out early in the rout of San Francisco, and there are reports Wilson might be dealing with an MCL injury. He'll be re-evaluated Monday.

-- Steelers WR Eli Rogers (toe) departed early in Sunday's rout at Philadelphia after suffering a toe injury and he was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Colts and Jaguars will tangle at Wembley Stadium in London at 9:30am ET next Sunday. The two sides split their pair of divisional games last season, with the Jags snapping a six-game losing streak in the series in emphatic fashion Dec. 13, 2015 by a 51-16 score. The Jaguars covered both meetings last season, but they're just 2-5 ATS over the past seven in the series.

-- The Panthers head to Atlanta to battle the Falcons in a key NFC South matchup. Carolina is 5-2 SU in the past seven meetings in this series, and they'e 6-2 ATS in the past eight.

-- The Bears return home to face the Lions in an NFC North matchup. Lately this series has been all Detroit, with the Lions winning six in a row. The Lions are also an impressive 9-3 ATS in the past 12 matchups. Chicago's last win in the series came Dec. 30, 2012 in Detroit, and the last win against the Lions at Soldier Field came Oct. 22, 2012.

-- The Patriots will host the rival Bills in an AFC East tussle in Foxboro, the final game before QB Tom Brady returns from suspension. New England has rolled in this series, winning eight of the past nine meetings, with their only win coming in a meaningless Week 17 game in 2014 when the Patriots rested most of their starters. New England is 5-3-1 ATS over the past nine against Buffalo.

-- The Texans and Titans do battle in another AFC South fight. Lately it has been all Texans, going 4-0 SU in the past four against the Titans, with Houston covering five in a row. The Texans are also 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings in the series while winning seven of the past eight.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL BEST BETS:

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 42-56-3 42.86% -9800

O/U Picks 45-58-4 43.69% -9400


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 26

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at NO 08:30 PM

ATL +2.5

U 53.5

[StarDust Bum]

NFL opening line report: Patriots QB situation continues to be muddled for one more week

Jacoby Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Jimmy Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder.

There’s only one more game left in Tom Brady’s suspension, and his team is unbeaten heading into Week 4 of the NFL season. We talk about the opening lines on four key games this week with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (no line)

New England trotted out third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett for last Thursday’s game against Houston. It didn’t matter, as the Patriots rolled over the visiting Texans 27-0 in a pick ‘em game.

Meanwhile, Buffalo (1-2 SU and ATS) got one of the more stunning Week 3 wins, dumping Arizona 33-18 as a 5-point home underdog Sunday.

Brissett is working through a thumb injury, while Garoppolo is recovering from his Week 2 sprained AC joint in his right shoulder. So Sportsbook.ag is holding off on setting the line until Bill Belichick clarifies that situation – like it’ll matter for the 3-0 SU and ATS Pats.

“With the Pats dealing with so many issues at the quarterback position, we’re not going to open until we know more about who’s going to get the start for them,” Childs said. “Both Garoppolo and Brissett are listed as questionable, and I honestly don’t think either will be able to go. We’ll see, but as of now, this game is closed.”

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5)

Pittsburgh (2-1 SU and ATS) was on the very short end of the most shocking Week 3 decision, getting railroaded 34-3 at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point chalk. Kansas City (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) drubbed the New York Jets 24-3 laying 3 points at home. But Childs has big expectations of the Steelers.

“With the Steelers at home off an embarrassing loss, we expect a very solid effort from them in this spot,” Childs said. “Throw in the fact that this is the Sunday night featured game, and we believe the public is going to be all over the Steelers in this one. That said, Pittsburgh definitely has some issues on defense, and the Chiefs were very impressive dominating a good Jets team.”

Sportsbook.ag oddmakers needed some time to settle on the number.

“We thought about opening Steelers -6, but felt that was too many points, so we opened them -5, which is a dead number. We’ll see how the market reacts to our opener,” Childs said. “We can easily get to 6 if we get flooded with Steelers money, and if sharp money backs the Chiefs and takes the points, then we’ll quickly get down to 4.5 or 4.

“Again, 5 being a dead number, we’ve got a lot of wiggle room to maneuver, with little chance of getting sided or middled.”

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)

Cam Newton and Co. suffered a stunning Week 2 loss, as well, with the reigning NFC champion Panthers (1-2 SU and ATS) falling 22-10 as 6-point home faves against Minnesota. Atlanta (1-1 SU and ATS) still has to get in its Week 3 work, playing at New Orleans in the Monday nighter.

“This is a tough number to hang, because we really don’t know how good the Falcons are. So much will depend on their game Monday night,” Childs said. “The Panthers have been such a public team for the past year, and we feel they’ll get the money here off a loss. I have the game power-rated Panthers -3, but knowing the public will be on them, we added the hook with an opener of Panthers -3½ and will charge a premium on the early Panthers money.”

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)

In Sam Bradford, Minnesota has found a more than capable replacement for injured Teddy Bridgewater, and the Vikes’ defense is getting it done, too, en route to a 3-0 SU and ATS start. On Sunday, the Vikings upended defending NFC champion Carolina 22-10 as a 6-point road underdog.

New York (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) gave up a late field goal, followed by an interception in losing to Washington 29-27 giving 3.5 points at home.

“This was so close to this game being a matchup of undefeated teams, but the Giants couldn’t close out the Redskins on Sunday,” Childs said. “The Vikings have been flat-out dominant on defense this season. The Giants are much improved on defense, but they yielded a season-high 29 points on Sunday, so they still have plenty of work to do on that side of the ball.

“It’s a Monday night game, and US Bank Stadium is going to be nuts. Normally, home field in the NFL is worth close to 3 points; for the Vikings and this new stadium, we make their home edge 3.5 points. We have the Vikings power-rated a 1-point favorite, so tack on the 3.5 points for their home field, and we opened Vikings -4.5.”

[StarDust Bum]

Wiseguys are keeping a close eye on these redemption storylines in NFL Week 4

After two easy wins and covers, the Steelers had the look and feel of a team that was more than ready to give the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC. Now, who knows?

Spread to bet now

Tennessee at Houston (-6.5)

Bill O’Brien and the Texans looked like a shaken bunch when they boarded the bus after last Thursday’s 27-0 shutout loss in New England, but they will have had a few extra days to sort things out. Houston was not as bad as it looked in Foxboro, but no one knows if the Texans are as good as they showed in home wins over Chicago and Kansas City. At any rate, Houston gets another home game and is looking down at the rest of the AFC South, so things can’t be all that bad. The Titans have to figure out a way to jump-start an offense which has scored only 42 points in three games, and do it against a Houston team whose defense was embarrassed by the Patriots’ third-string QB on national TV. If the money stays heavy money on the Texans, it could bump the line up to 7.

Spread to wait on

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-6)

Philadelphia 34, Pittsburgh 3. What was THAT all about? After two easy wins and covers, the Steelers had the look and feel of a team that was more than ready to give the Patriots a run for their money in the AFC. Now, who knows? The Steelers were outplayed in every phase of the game (except punting) vs. their in-state rivals, and now face a pretty good Chiefs team that is coming off a dismantling of the Jets. If you’re torn between taking or laying the points in this one, bear in mind that the Chiefs offense revolves around RB Jamaal Charles, and as of early this week KC was still uncertain if Charles is completely recovered from ACL surgery from last October. Might want to wait until there is more definitive word.

Total to watch

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (49.5)

Loading up on skill-position players in the draft has taken its toll on the Colts, who aspire to the Super Bowl but are actually under .500 in their last 19 regular-season games. Indy ranks 24th in the league in defense this season, and is giving up an average of 32 points a game. On the plus side, the D appears to be getting a little better (22 allowed vs. San Diego last week), though that might be a product of playing mediocre offensive teams. Jacksonville has offensive problems, namely an inability to run the ball, but is confident that it can move the ball through the air against Indy’s mediocre back 7. Both teams are 2-1 on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 29

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MIAMI (1 - 2) at CINCINNATI (1 - 2) - 9/29/2016, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-76 ATS (-32.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, October 2

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INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) vs. JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 9:30 AM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (0 - 3) at WASHINGTON (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-89 ATS (-43.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 79-110 ATS (-42.0 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (1 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (0 - 3) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-20 ATS (-17.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (3 - 0) - 10/2/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
OAKLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (2 - 1) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (0 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (1 - 2) - 10/2/2016, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4


Thurs – Sept. 26

Miami at Cincinnati, 8:25 PM ET
Miami: 1-8 ATS in games played on turf
Cincinnati: 17-6 ATS in home games after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game


Sun – Oct. 2

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 9:30 AM ET
Indianapolis: 18-5 OVER in road games after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Jacksonville: 66-91 ATS after playing a game at home

Cleveland at Washington, 1:10 PM ET
Cleveland: 9-1 OVER in the first month of the season
Washington: 7-19 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14

Buffalo at New England, 1:00 PM ET
Buffalo: 1-6 ATS off an upset win by 10 or more as a home underdog
New England: 27-9 ATS after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game

Seattle at NY Jets, 1:00 PM ET
Seattle: 36-19 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game
New York: 37-62 ATS off a road loss

Carolina at Atlanta, 1:00 PM ET
Carolina: 13-4 ATS vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS vs. mistake prone teams – 60+ penalty yards per game

Detroit at Chicago, 1:00 PM ET
Detroit: 8-24 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Chicago: 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 PM ET
Tennessee: 1-11 ATS against conference opponents
Houston: 12-3 ATS as a favorite

Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00 PM ET
Oakland: 5-16 ATS in road games against AFC North division opponents
Baltimore: 29-14 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Denver at Tampa Bay, 4:05 PM ET
Denver: 18-36 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games
Tampa Bay: 18-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored

Dallas at San Francisco, 4:25 PM ET
Dallas: 10-2 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-17 ATS after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games

New Orleans at San Diego, 4:25 PM ET
New Orleans: 17-5 ATS in road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards last game
San Diego: 0-7 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Los Angeles at Arizona, 4:25 PM ET
Los Angeles: 75-105 ATS after playing their last game on the road
Arizona: 31-14 ATS in home games off a non-conference game

Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 8:30 PM ET
Kansas City: 21-38 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Pittsburgh: 48-28 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7


Mon – Oct. 3

NY Giants at Minnesota, 8:30 PM ET
New York: 73-41 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Minnesota: 11-2 ATS in games played on turf

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 29

8:25 PM
MIAMI vs. CINCINNATI
Miami is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati17-7-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home


Sunday, October 2

9:30 AM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 15 games when playing on the road against Jacksonville
Indianapolis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Oakland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. WASHINGTON
Cleveland is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
NY Jets are 2-2-2 ATS in their last 6 games
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
Detroit is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Carolina

4:05 PM
DENVER vs. TAMPA BAY
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games

4:25 PM
DALLAS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Dallas is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Dallas

4:25 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN DIEGO
New Orleans is 3-7-1 SU in its last 11 games ,
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games when playing New Orleans

4:25 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Los Angeles's last 12 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Los Angeles is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 12 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Arizona is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games


Monday, October 3

8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. MINNESOTA
NY Giants are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Minnesota
NY Giants are 2-3-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Giants

[StarDust Bum]

Week 4 NFL

Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2)– Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.

Colts (1-2) vs Jaguars (0-3) (in London)– Jacksonville lost its two home games by total of 6 points, amid rumors that Bradley could be fired with loss here, as bye week looms. Indy had one offensive TD in 25 drives vs Jaguars LY; they gave up 296 rushing yards to Jax in those two games. Colts won six of last seven games vs Jaguars, but lost last one 51-16 here LY- Indy is 10-5 in visits here. Colts hit long pass with 1:17 left to beat Chargers and get its first win LW; Indy 4-9-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite, 16-12-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jaguars play game here every year; 5-11 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Browns (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)– Former Redskin QB RGIII returns to Maryland, with his arm in a sling. Browns started three different QBs in first three games, losing in OT after its rookie kicker missed FG at gun of regulation. Cleveland is 9-7-1 in last 17 games as a road underdog- they led last two weeks at half, ran ball for 145-169 yards, but couldn’t finish. Washington is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite; they’ve already lost at home to Steelers/Dallas this year. Last two Redskin games were decided by total of 6 points- they won two of three series games, beating Browns 14-11 in ’08, in only meeting played here. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs spreas in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Bills (1-2) @ Patriots (3-0)– Garoppolo/Brissett are both banged up, unsure who starts at QB in last game before Brady returns. Patriots are 23-2 in last 25 series games, winning 40-32/20-13 in two games vs Buffalo LY. Bills lost 14 of last 15 visits here, winning in ’14. Buffalo ran ball for 208 yards LW, in first game with new OC, after running for total of 151 in first two games, but they threw for only 88 yards- they’ll need lot more balance here. Buffalo is 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a divisional road dog, 7-5-1 in last 13 overall as a road dog. Patriots are 5-1-3 in last nine games as a home favorite- they’ve historically been stronger HF vs non-division foes. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)– Wilson has sprained knee, Seattle has bye week next; backup is TCU rookie Boykin (7-9/65 in mop-up duty LW). Seahawks are 5-6 in last 11 games as road favorite- they’re 6-3-2 in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jets turned ball over eight times LW in epic display of bad offense- they’re 8-2 vs spread in last 10 tries as home underdog, 6-10-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last five series games; Seattle lost its last five games vs Jets in Swamp, but last visit was in 2003- they last beat Jets here in ’83. Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle. NFC West teams are 1-4 vs spread in non-division games. AFC East teams are 5-3, 0-1 if favored.

Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1)– Atlanta scored nine TDs on 18 drives in winning last two games; average total in their first three games is 65 (over 3-0) . Falcons defense also allowed 12 TDs already, all on drives of 75+ yards- they’re not good. Panthers turned ball over 7 times (-4) in last two games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorites, 10-5 in last 15 with a spread of 3 or less. Atlanta is 7-2 in last nine games as a home dog, 5-2 under Quinn in games with spread of 3 or less. Carolina defense has forced 17 3/outs, most in league- they won five of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, after losing previous five . NFL-wide, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Lions (1-2) @ Bears (0-3)– Chicago is 8-23-3 vs spread in last 34 games with spread of 3 or less points- they were outscored 83-45 in losing first three games, losing to rookie QBs last two weeks; they’ve lost 11 of last 12 home games, are 2-10 as home dogs in last 4+ years. Check Cutler’s status (thumb). Lions allowed 69 points in splitting pair of road games- they have only two TDs in last six visits to red zone. Detroit won last six series games, with five of six wins by 8 or less points (37-34/24-20 LY); Lions won last three visits here, by 2-6-4 points. Detroit is 5-8 as road favorite last 4+ years, 12-15-2 in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Titans (1-2) @ Texans (2-1)– Houston scored one TD in last two games; all three TDs NE scored against them LW came on drives of less than 50 yards. Titans were outscored 29-6 in first half of last two games; they’ve lost field position by 9-9-6 yards in first three games. Houston is 8-3 as home favorite under O’Brien (1-0 this year). Tennessee is 6-13 in last 19 games as road dog- they won only road game this year, 16-15 at Detroit. Texans are 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four, all by 14+ points; Titans lost last four visits here, by 24-6-24-14 points. Tennessee scored one TD on 25 drives vs Texans LY, losing 20-6/34-6. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games. There are rumors that JJ Watt is hurt (back, check status) which would obviously hurt the Houston defense.

Week 4 NFL
Dolphins @ Bengals (-7, 44.5)……….Colts (-2.5, 49.5) @ Jaguars
Browns @ Redskins (-9.5, 45.5)……..Bills @ Patriots (-4.5, NL)
Seahawks (-1.5, 40.5) @ Jets…………..Panthers (-3.5, NL) @ Falcons
Lions (-3, 46.5) @ Bears…………………Titans @ Texans (-6, 40.5)
Raiders @ Ravens (-3.5, 47)……………Broncos (-3, 44.5) @ Buccaneers
Cowboys (-3, 46) @ 49ers………………Saints @ Chargers (-4, NL)
Rams @ Cardinals (-8.5, 43)…………..Chiefs @ Steelers (-6, 47.5)
Giants @ Vikings (-4, 43)

Week 3 NFL
Texans (-2.5, 41) @ Patriots (W27-0)………….Broncos (W29-17) @ Bengals (-3, 41)
Raiders (W17-10) @ Titans (-1., 46.5)………….Cardinals (-4.5, 47) @ Bills (W33-18)
Ravens (-1, 47.5) (W19-17) @ Jaguars…………..Browns @ Dolphins (-9.5, 41.5) (W30-24 OT)
Redskins (W29-27) @ Giants (-4.5, 46.5)………Lions @ Packers (-7.5, 48) (W34-27)
Vikings (W22-10) @ Panthers (-7, 48)…………..49ers @ Seahawks (-10, 40.5) (w37-18)
Rams (W37-32) @ Buccaneers (-5, 42)………….Steelers (-5.5, 46) @ Eagles (W34-3)
Jets @ Chiefs (-3, 43) (W24-3)……………………..Chargers @ Colts (-3, 51) (W26-22)
Bears @ Cowboys (-7, 45) (W31-17)………………Falcons (W45-32) @ Saints (-3, 54)

Week 2 NFL
Jets (W37-31) @ Bills (-1, 41)……………Titans (W16-15) @ Lions (-5.5, 47)
Chiefs @ Texans (W19-12) (-2, 43.5)………….Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5, 41.5) (W31-24)
Ravens (-6.5, 43) (W25-20) @ Browns…………Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5, 47.5) (W24-16)
Cowboys (W27-23) @ Redskins (-3.5, 44.5)…………Saints @ Giants (-5, 52.5) (W16-13)
49ers @ Panthers (-14, 48.5) (W46-27)…………Bucs @ Cardinals (-6.5, 50) (W40-7)
Seahawks (-6.5) @ Rams (W9-3)…………Colts @ Broncos (-6, 45) (W34-20)
Falcons (W35-28) @ Raiders (-5.5, 48.5)…………Jaguars @ Chargers (-3, 48) (W38-14)
Packers (-2.5), 44.5 @ Vikings (W17-14)………..Eagles @ Bears (-3, 43)

Week 1 NFL
Carolina (-3, 40.5) @ Denver (W21-20)……………Chicago @ Houston (-6, 44) (W23-14)
Tampa Bay (W31-24)@ Atlanta (-3, 47.5)……..Green Bay (-5, 48) (W27-23) @ Jacksonville
Minnesota (-2.5, 40.5) (W25-16) @ Tennessee ………..Miami @ Seattle (-10, 44) (W12-10)
Cleveland @ Philadelphia (-4, 41) (29-10)……….NJ Giants (W20-19) @ Dallas (-1, 46)
Cincinnati (-2.5, 42) (W23-22) @ NJ Jets………..Detroit (W39-35) @ Indianapolis (-3.5, 51)
Oakland (W35-34) @ New Orleans (-1.5, 51)….New England (W23-21) @ Arizona (-6, 46.5)
San Diego @ Kansas City (W33-27 OT) (-7, 44)………….Pittsburgh (-3, 50) @ Washington
Buffalo @ Baltimore (-3, 44.5) (W13-7)……………….Los Angeles (-2.5, 43) @ San Francisco

2016 week-by-week results

Home Favorites Totals O/U AFC-NFC
1) 7-9 5-11 7-9 5-3N
2) 10-6 7-9 7-8-1 1-1
3) 7-9 5-11 9-7 1-1

Tot 24-24 17-31 23-24-1 7-5N

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NFL ACTION TRENDS

ATS

8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all games.
The record is 17 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.7 units)
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8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play ON MINNESOTA against the spread in All games in all lined games.
The record is 17 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+13.7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(261) DETROIT @(262) CHICAGO
Play AGAINST CHICAGO against the spread in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(265) OAKLAND @(266) BALTIMORE
Play ON OAKLAND against the spread in Road games against conference opponents.
The record is 7 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+7 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.1 units)
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1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 3 Wins and 20 Losses for the last three seasons (-19 units)
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----------------------------------


NFL ACTION TRENDS

Money Line


8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play ON NY GIANTS using the money line in Road games against NFC North division opponents.
The record is 16 Wins and 9 Losses since 1992 (+20.75 units)
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8:30 pm 10/2/2016
(275) KANSAS CITY @(276) PITTSBURGH
Play ON PITTSBURGH using the money line in Home games in October games.
The record is 36 Wins and 8 Losses since 1992 (+24.85 units)
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4:05 pm 10/2/2016
(267) DENVER @(268) TAMPA BAY
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY using the money line in All games in home games.
The record is 3 Wins and 14 Losses for the last three seasons (-15.65 units)
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1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 4 Wins and 23 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.65 units)
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1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(263) TENNESSEE @(264) HOUSTON
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using the money line in All games against conference opponents.
The record is 3 Wins and 22 Losses for the last three seasons (-19.45 units)
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1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(253) CLEVELAND @(254) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using the money line in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 2 Wins and 12 Losses for the last two seasons (-11.9 units)
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1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(253) CLEVELAND @(254) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using the money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 31 Wins and 33 Losses since 1992 (-46.55 units)
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1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(257) SEATTLE @(258) NY JETS
Play ON SEATTLE using the money line in All games off a division game.
The record is 12 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+11.9 units)
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8:25 pm 9/29/2016
(101) MIAMI @(102) CINCINNATI
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using the money line in Home games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 8 Wins and 17 Losses since 1992 (-20.1 units)
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8:25 pm 9/29/2016
(101) MIAMI @(102) CINCINNATI
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using the money line in All games against AFC East division opponents.
The record is 14 Wins and 35 Losses since 1992 (-31.75 units)
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NFL ACTION TRENDS

Half Time


8:30 pm 10/2/2016
(275) KANSAS CITY @(276) PITTSBURGH
Play ON PITTSBURGH in the first half in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 12 Wins and 2 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.8 units)
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4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in Road games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
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4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play ON DALLAS in the first half in All games in games played on a grass field.
The record is 11 Wins and 1 Losses for the last three seasons (+9.9 units)
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4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(273) LA RAMS @(274) ARIZONA
Play ON LA RAMS in the first half in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 18 Wins and 4 Losses for the last three seasons (+13.6 units)
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1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(253) CLEVELAND @(254) WASHINGTON
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON in the first half in All games against AFC North division opponents.
The record is 4 Wins and 17 Losses since 1992 (-14.7 units)
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9:30 am 10/2/2016
(251) INDIANAPOLIS @(252) JACKSONVILLE
Play AGAINST JACKSONVILLE in the first half in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 1 Wins and 11 Losses for the last three seasons (-11.1 units)
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NFL ACTION TRENDS

Under


8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the total in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
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8:30 pm 10/3/2016
(277) NY GIANTS @(278) MINNESOTA
Play UNDER MINNESOTA on the total in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins.
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)
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4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play UNDER SAN FRANCISCO on the total in Home games against conference opponents.
The record is 1 Overs and 12 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.9 units)
BET NOW!

1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(259) CAROLINA @(260) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest.
The record is 6 Overs and 20 Unders for the last three seasons (+13.4 units)
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1:00 pm 10/2/2016
(259) CAROLINA @(260) ATLANTA
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 2 Overs and 13 Unders for the last three seasons (+10.8 units)
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--------------------------------


NFL ACTION TRENDS

Half Time Under


4:25 pm 10/2/2016
(269) DALLAS @(270) SAN FRANCISCO
Play UNDER DALLAS on the first half total in All games when playing against a team with a losing record.
The record is 0 Overs and 7 Unders for the last two seasons (+7 units)
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4:05 pm 10/2/2016
(267) DENVER @(268) TAMPA BAY
Play UNDER DENVER on the first half total in All games as a favorite vs. the 1rst half line.
The record is 2 Overs and 12 Unders for the last two seasons (+9.8 units)
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Dolphins visit Cincinnati
September 27, 2016


Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS)

Sportsbook.ag Lines: Cincinnati (-7) vs. Miami (+7); Total set at 45

Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off with a pair of 1-2 SU AFC teams meeting in Cincinnati as the Bengals host the Dolphins. Neither team can be happy with how the first three weeks of the year have gone, but truthfully, neither organization caught a break in their respective early season schedules.

Miami has already done battle with two preseason Super Bowl favorites from Seattle and New England, and then struggled and got a little lucky to knock off the hapless Browns in OT last week.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have played two Super Bowl contenders as well in losses to Pittsburgh and Denver in consecutive weeks, with a Week 1, one-point win over the Jets rounding out their early schedule. Things do lighten up a bit for both teams going forward, that's why it's important that the winner of this TNF game uses that win to build momentum heading into October.

Looking at the line, this is the third time in four weeks that Miami has opened up as a touchdown or higher underdog and all three of those games have been on the road. Their only ATS win vs the closing number came in Week 1 vs Seattle (12-10 loss) in a game the Dolphins should have really won outright. It's been a tough road to plod through for the Dolphins with three of their first four on the road against top tier opponents, but these early tests could pay off for Miami down the road and that's something to keep an eye on.

The Bengals are fully deserving of being touchdown favorites even at 1-2 SU, but with the bulk of the early action on Cincinnati pushing this line from -6 to -7, one can't help but wonder if the time is now to jump on the road side here.

Throwing aside that sloppy OT win vs. Cleveland that had Miami clearly looking past a Browns team starting their fifth different QB in as many games, the Dolphins have actually played fairly well this year. They had one bad drive vs. Seattle, one bad half vs. New England and if they can clean that stuff up a bit vs. Cincinnati they'll have a great chance to win outright. Cincinnati has gone 0-3-1 ATS in their last four at home and the last four times they've hosted a Miami team, the Bengals are 0-4 ATS.

Miami also has a ferocious D-Line with Suh, Wake, and Williams up front and they should be able to create havoc for Bengals QB Andy Dalton all night long. The Bengals lead the NFL in sacks allowed through three weeks of play (12) and that deficiency from Cincinnati plays right into Miami's strength.

The worry here for Miami backers is whether or not QB Ryan Tannehill can take care of the ball and put up points. But after Denver's Trevor Siemian torched the Bengals defense all afternoon last week for 312 yards and 4 TD's, Tannehill shouldn't have too many problems on his hands.

Cincinnati entered the year as an outside contender to win it all this year, but this team doesn't appear to have the same talent on both sides of the ball as they have in recent years and simply put, this is too many points for a team struggling to find their identity in 2016 to be laying on a short week. This line could very well come back down to the -6 to -6.5 range, so grabbing that +7 with Miami is better done sooner than later.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 4
September 28, 2016



THURSDAY, SEPT. 29


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MIAMI at CINCINNATI (NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Miami 6-18 last 24 on board but only 1-2 with Gase. Marvin Lewis just 6-7-1 as home chalk past two seasons but 12-7-1 in role back to 2013.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on team trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 2

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE from London (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After losing six in a row SU vs. Colts, Jags won 51-16 last December. Colts "over" 7-3 last 10 away, Jags "over" 13-7 last 19.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns have covered last two but 4-9-1 last 14 on board. Skins 0-3 as chalk since LY and also 11-21 vs. line for Jay Gruden save the last four games of 2105 reg season when Skins surged late. Skins now "over" last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rex Ryan 0-1-1 vs. line against Belichick LY, but was 5-1 vs. spread against Pats in previous six with Jets. Bills no covers first two TY while Belichick has covered first three. Belichick 36-16 "over" at home since 2010.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over" and Patriots, based on "totals" and team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at NY JETS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seattle "under" 5-1-1 "under" last seven reg season. Jets 10-6-2 vs. line for Bowles since LY.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on recent "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs dealt Panthers their only reg.-season loss of 2015 at Georgia Dome LY. But that has been Atlanta's only cover last seven at home (1-6). Carolina 6-2 vs. line last eight meetings. Last six meetings "under" as well.
Tech Edge: Panthers and "under," based on series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears are 1-8 SU and vs. line at home since LY for Fox. Chicago 1-7 last eight on board since late 2015. Lions on 8-3 spread uptick since mid 2015 and have won last three SU at Soldier Field.
Tech Edge: Lions, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans only 9-29-3 vs. line since late 2013. Houston has owned this series with five covers in a row and 9-1 last ten. O'Brien 6-1 as home chalk since 2015, also "under" 7-2 last nine at NRG and "under" 7-1 last eight since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Texans and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at BALTIMORE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders have covered five straight on road. Tempted to toss Ravens 2015 numbers when injured and 1-6-1 at home vs. line, already 1-0 in 2016 at M&T Bank Stadium.
Tech Edge: Raiders, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Kubiak was 7-1-2 vs. line away since LY and 4-1-1 as road chalk. Bucs only 3-6 vs. line as host since LY and on 1-6 spread slide since late 2015.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Niners "under" 9-1 last ten at Santa Clara, Dallas "under" 12-8 last 20.
Tech Edge: "Under," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at SAN DIEGO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Bolts only 3-11 vs. line last 14 at home though did clock the Jags in 2016 Qualcomm opener. Brees however 8-3-1 last 12 as dog.
Tech Edge: Saints, based on Brees dog marks.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LOS ANGELES at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Arians 5-1 vs. line against Fisher since 2013, though game he lost came at home LY. Rams under" 14-5-1 last 20 since late 2014, also 3-7-1 last 11 away vs. points.
Tech Edge: Cards and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs only 1-5 as dog since 2015. Steel 8-2-1 vs. spread at home last 10 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Steelers, based on team trends.


MONDAY, OCT. 3


NY GIANTS at MINNESOTA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
G-Men 2-6-1 vs. line since late 2015. Zimmer 17-3 vs. line since 2015!
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Analyzing the Unbeatens
September 28, 2016

Patriots Now Most Likely To Be Last Unbeaten Standing?

Parity is alive and well in the NFL this season as 28 of the 32 teams have at least one victory through three weeks. That's tied for the third-highest total in the NFL through three games since the league expanded and realigned in 2002. The record is 30 in 2012.

There are just five unbeaten teams left: the Patriots, Broncos, Ravens, Vikings and Eagles. Since the playoff field was expanded to 12 teams in 1990, 75.6 percent of teams (99 of 131) that started 3-0 made the playoffs.

So which NFL team is likely to be the last to lose? Here's a look at the five and their BetOnline NFL odds to win the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots (+400): It apparently doesn't matter who starts at quarterback for Coach Bill Belichick, whose reputation only grows with every win by the likes of Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett.

Garoppolo missed last Thursday's blowout win of Houston with a shoulder injury, and Brissett, a third-round rookie, played solidly in the win but injured his thumb. It's not clear which will be under center Sunday at home vs. Buffalo, but both practiced on Tuesday.

New England opened as a 4.5-point favorite. With Tom Brady due back in Week 5, the Patriots likely won't be underdogs until Week 7 in Pittsburgh -- if then. If the Pats win that, they should be unbeaten in Week 10 when Seattle visits.

Denver Broncos (+900): Who needs Peyton Manning? Denver QB Trevor Siemian, who is essentially a rookie, became the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 300 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in his first career road start as he led a comeback victory in Cincinnati in Week 3.

Despite losing some key free agents, the Denver defense is playing as well as it did last year. The Broncos could be staring at a trap game this week at Tampa Bay as 3-point favorites. After Sunday, Denver should be favored in every game until Week 9 in Oakland.

Minnesota Vikings (+1100): Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, running back Adrian Peterson and left tackle Matt Kalil are all done for the year. Yet the Vikings already have beaten top NFC contenders Green Bay and Carolina.

Mike Zimmer has to be the NFL Coach of the Year favorite. His defense hasn't allowed more than 16 points in a game yet. The Vikings are -4 for Monday's game vs. the Giants. Minnesota's next chance to be an underdog is Week 7 at Philadelphia.

Philadelphia Eagles (+1600): No question that Carson Wentz is the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year through three weeks. He is the first rookie QB since 1970 to start and win his team’s first three games to begin a season without throwing a pick. And yet the Browns didn't want him?

Philly beat two bad teams in Cleveland and Chicago to open the season but made a statement with last Sunday's 34-3 blowout of the Steelers, their worst loss since 1989. The Eagles are on the bye in Week 4. They could easily lose Week 5 in Detroit.

Baltimore Ravens (+2800): Hard to know how good Joe Flacco and Co. are. They have beaten Buffalo, Cleveland and Jacksonville by a combined 13 points and those three clubs have totaled one win between them (Bills).

The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on BetOnline's NFL odds this week against visiting Oakland. Baltimore likely will next be an underdog Week 6 at the Giants.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday's Game

Dolphins (1-2) @ Bengals (1-2)– Cincinnati lost its last two games; they’ve trailed all three games at halftime- they’re just 12-39 on 3rd down. Bengals are 12-7-2 in last 21 games as home favorite, 0-1 this year. Miami is 12-2 in last 14 series games, winning last three by 8-4-2 points. Dolphins won seven of last eight visits to Cincy; last one was in ’12. Miami is 12-14 in last 26 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’ve turned ball over 7 times in last two games (-5), allowed 130 rushing yards. Cleveland missed FG on last play of regulation LW or Miami would be 0-3. AFC East teams are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-2 as underdogs. AFC North teams are 4-4.