The Bum's 2016 NFL Sept. Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 4
September 28, 2016


Week 3 of the NFL season was a good one for the sportsbooks as there were numerous underdogs that not only covered the spread, but won outright.

This feature last week on underdogs of 4+ points isolated all the games that applied, and further narrowed it down to Buffalo (+177), Washington (+170), LA Rams (+190), and Philadelphia (+160) as those with the best chance to win.

Well all four of those underdogs won outright so bettors that pay attention to this weekly feature were able to come away with a big payday.

Week 4's list of sizable underdogs is a little shorter than what we've recently seen, and not counting the TNF game with Miami (+7.5), there are currently seven games that fit the “underdogs of +4 or more” and it's time to start narrowing down the teams that have the best chance to win outright.

Sportsbook.ag Week 4 Underdogs that Qualify

Cleveland (+7.5); ML (+300)
Buffalo (+6); ML (+200)
Tennessee (+5); ML (+195)
New Orleans (+4); ML (+165)
LA Rams (+7.5); ML (+275)
Kansas City (+6); ML (+210)
New York Giants (+4.5); ML (+185)

Right off the bat we have some repeat offenders from last week as Cleveland, Buffalo, and the LA Rams all find themselves on this list once again. It's likely that Cleveland will make a weekly appearance on this list each week and while I don't think they'll end up 0-16 SU, they are not a team anyone can have too much confidence in putting a ML bet down on.

Buffalo is in New England to get the last crack at beating the Patriots without Tom Brady and do appear to be a solid underdog to back on the ML. At +200 the value is there to back the Bills in this AFC East rivalry game, and everyone knows how badly Rex Ryan wants to beat Bill Belichick any chance he gets. The Bills came out of their early season funk with a big win vs. Arizona last week and should definitely be considered.

Speaking of Arizona, they host the third repeat offender on this list in the Rams, and this is one of those situations where it's extremely tough to consider the Rams for another outright upset. Arizona is mad at themselves for how they played vs. Buffalo last week and should very well bounce back with a dominant win like they did in Week 2 after they felt they gave one away in a Week 1 loss to those same Patriots.

Regarding the rest of the list, there are two teams I've isolated as the best teams to pull off the outright upset this week and they are the New Orleans Saints (+165), and New York Giants (+185).

The Saints are 0-3 SU and desperately need a win to save their 2016 season and should be able to find one in Drew Brees' old stomping grounds out in San Diego. The Chargers are really banged up on the injury front and while the Saints defense is arguably the worst in the league again this season, they did play well in their lone road game (16-13 loss @NYG) and I expect a similar performance here. Brees and company on offense will continue to do their part and at +165 on the ML, this is one of the best wagers out there this week.

The Giants are in a little tougher on the road against an undefeated Minnesota team who have beaten Green Bay and Carolina in back-to-back weeks. But the jury is still out on Minnesota's ability to put up points with their offense right now and that could pose a problem for the Vikings sooner than later. Yes, Minnesota's defense is the best in the league right now and Eli Manning is never shy about turning the ball over, but when the Giants play a complete game with limited mistakes for 60 minutes, they can beat anyone in this league.

With Minnesota being 0-7 ATS in their last seven appearances on MNF, expect this one to be close throughout.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Thursday, September 29


Miami @ Cincinnati

Game 101-102
September 29, 2016 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
129.148
Cincinnati
135.347
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 7 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+7 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, September 29

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Thursday Night NFL betting preview: Dolphins at Bengals
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Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 44.5)

Adam Gase may be a first-time head coach, but the 38-year-old was quick to light a fire under his underachieving team after benching a former first-round pick in last week's contest. Gase hopes his aggressive action will provide a jolt for the sputtering Miami Dolphins, who will look to prevent their third 1-3 start in five years on Thursday when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals.

"I'm over discussing any of this stuff with players," a testy Gase said on the heels of his team's 30-24 overtime victory over winless Cleveland. "We're either going to start getting the job done, or we're going to make changes." Right tackle Ja'Wuan James, who was the 19th overall selection of the 2014 draft, was relegated to the bench after he was burned on a rush that led to a strip sack on the final drive of the fourth quarter on Sunday. While Miami was fortunate to walk away with its first win, Cincinnati has followed its impressive season-opening victory over the New York Jets with a 24-16 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 2 and a 29-17 setback to Denver on Sunday. Mercurial Bengals linebacker Vontaze Burfict is eager to stop the bleeding when he makes his season debut on Thursday after serving a three-game suspension for repeated violations of safety-related playing rules.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this AFC matchup with the Bengals favored by a touchdown at home. Since then the line has moved to Cincinnati -7.5. The total meanwhile, opened at 44.5 and has yet to move off that number. Check out the complete line history here.

POWER RANKINGS: Dolphins (+3) - Bengals (-2) + home field (-3) = Bengals -8

INJURY REPORT:

Dolphins - WR J. Landry (probable Thursday, shoulder)m TE D. Sims (probable Thursday, ankle), WR D. Parker (probable Thursday, hamstring), G D. Thomas (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), LB S. Paysinger (questionable Thursday, neck), LB J. Jenkins (questionable Thursday, thigh), LB K. Misi (questionable Thursday, neck), C A. Steen (questionable Thursday ankle), T B. Albert (questionable Thursday, ankle), RB A. Foster (doutbful Thursday, groin), C M. Pouncey (out Thursday, hip), TE J. Cameron (out Thursday, concussion).

Bengals - CB D. Kirkpatrick (questionable Thursday, calf), CB J. Shaw (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), K M. Nugent (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), S S. Williams (questionable Thursday, knee), TE T. Eifert (doubtful Thursday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: There is a chance it could get wet in Cincinnati on Thursday. The forecast is calling for a 55 percent chance of rain and a chance of thunderstorms in the area. That being said, there will only be a slight two to three mile per hour wind blowing towards the northwest endzone.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): With veteran Arian Foster still nursing a groin injury, Gase is expected to use rookie Kenyan Drake as the starter in a four-tier running back carousel that also features Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams and Isaiah Pead. Ajayi had an 11-yard touchdown run in overtime last week, but the Dolphins' 25th-ranked ground attack is mustering just 83 yards per game and is led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill (club-best 54 yards). Tannehill continues to click with trusted target Jarvis Landry (AFC-leading 314 yards receiving) and fellow wideout DeVante Parker, but Dion Sims will get the nod as fellow tight end Jordan Cameron nurses the fourth concussion in his six-year career.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Jeremy Hill scored twice last week and has 10 rushing touchdowns in his last 11 games heading into a date with the sputtering Dolphins' defense, which allowed 169 yards rushing last week and an NFL second-worst 147.3 yards per game. Andy Dalton (AFC-best 938 passing yards) was limited to just 206 yards passing last week versus the Broncos and A.J. Green has just 10 catches for 115 yards combined over the last two games. The duo could get back on track at the expense of cornerback Xavien Howard, who was shredded for eight catches for 144 yards by Cleveland's Terrell Pryor last week.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 versus AFC opponents.
* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Dolphins' last eight Thursday games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bengals' last six versus a team with a losing record.

CONSENSUS: The public is almost split down the middle for this AFC matchup, with 51 percent of wagers giving the Bengals the slightest of edges. As for the total, 59 percent of bettors are on the Over.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 4 lines that make you go hmmm...

The Dallas Cowboys offense is starting to pick up steam but heads to the West Coast to play the rival 49ers in Week 4.

This week, there’s more than one theme when it comes to the teams and value we’ve discovered. It has to do with the “D”: Detroit, Denver, and Dallas. Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 4:

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 46)

The opening line of Detroit -3 quickly evolved to -3 (Even) and to -2.5 for those bookmakers who wanted to get off the key number early in the week to test the waters. For Da Bears, we’ve seen nothing in three weeks.

The offense has been non-existent while their defense eventually tires from the amount of time they’re on the field. It’s not like their opponents were bad. The Cowboys, Eagles and Texans have been formidable early this season but Chicago hasn’t shown any signs of reversing its fortunes.

On the other hand, Detroit has been scoring at a high level, particularly on the road at Green Bay (loss this past week) and Indianapolis (opening win). The current line at -2.5 seems like a steal at this point and if you’re checking into this game, grab the number before this goes back up.

I don’t see anyone but die-hard Bear fans dropping their cash on their hometown favorites, so this game will definitely rise back up before kickoff. I don’t see the line coming into play. The Lions should outrun the Bears in this one.

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 44.5)

The opening line of Denver -3 hasn’t budged much in two days but that’s what seems surprising. After an opening win at Atlanta, the Bucs defense has been Swiss cheese allowing 77 points the past two games. Against a similarly defensively stronger team, they mustered just seven points against Arizona in Week 2.

Though I am wary of the second road game in a row factor, it seems like the Broncos can “Buc” that trend in this spot come Sunday. Trevor Siemian is more than capable of running the Broncos offense, has been incredibly efficient in the fourth quarter, and the defense is still among the best in the league.

Any time you can snag a team amidst a winning streak against a struggling opponent with a line of -3 or less, it seems like a value play despite all other factors. It doesn’t appear to be a letdown game in any sense as Denver has two 2-1 teams on its heels. Between these two teams, let’s ride the hot team until proven otherwise.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5, 46)

Dallas is heading to San Francisco and it seems the 49ers’ success of Week 1 has worn off quickly. Conversely, the Cowboys have tallied twice in the win column since their close call versus the Giants, otherwise they would be undefeated heading into this one.

The opening line of Dallas -3 hasn’t budged and if I were a Nevada bookmaker filling out the half-point parlay card numbers for this weekend, I’d be all over posting a -3.5 over a -2.5 but I’ll put my reputation on the line that no one can find two sportsbooks who will do that in the entire state.

The Cowboys offense has been clicking with point totals rising every week – duly noting the possible knee injury to Dez Bryant as we make these observations. Additionally, the San Francisco defense has been horrendous the past two games allowing a total of 83 points to score after an season-opening shutout. While the Niners will have their backers, particularly up in the Reno-Tahoe area, the money is going to be all over Dallas.

The spread will have no effect on the final score in my opinion. I also think this is a more important game for Dallas here on the road than the 49ers, who will be in a year-long funk throughout. Dallas, like Denver and Detroit, is the better team this week and that’s the edge we have.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8. 42.5)

Los Angeles is at Arizona this week with the Cardinals eight to 9-point favorites. I see nothing but awkward tells surrounding this game. The Rams have won two games in a row yet have been outscored by 17 points for the season. Arizona is 1-2 and has a plus-16 scoring ratio while losing two miserable games to AFC East opponents.

Los Angeles plays its second consecutive game on the road and that will be three games in four weeks away from the Coliseum. The Cardinals are suddenly faced with a must-win game after a horrendous outing in Buffalo where just about everything went wrong. They’ll need to address their kicking game for sure, but Arizona is considered a quality team and I view this as a big motivating game.

I see this line heading straight to -10 come Sunday and it being a big game for the bottom line of bookmakers with the favorite/Over plays commonplace in the late contests this week. Arizona is a big favorite for a reason and it’ll prove its worth this week.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFL knowledge to ponder

13) Minnesota Vikings are 3-0, despite scoring only three offensive TDs, tied with Houston for fewest in NFL. Vikings’ defense scored two TDs in the Tennessee game and ran a punt back for a score last week- you look at their offensive stats and wonder how the hell they’re 3-0, but they are.

12) Giants’ first three games were decided by total of six points; they were minus in turnovers all three games (-6) but the defense has forced 12 field goal tries, while allowing only four TDs, so they’ve been tough in the red zone.

11) Eagles had a great first three weeks, but have their bye this week, much like the Bengals two years ago, when they started the season 3-0, had their bye week……..then went 0-2-1 in their next three games. Momentum is a funny thing; you want to keep playing when things are going well.
10) 49ers have gone 3/out 17 times on 35 drives, most in NFL; Rams are next (15 of 34). Oakland/Atlanta have gone 3/out fewest times (three each).

Carolina has forced opponents to go 3/out 17 times on 34 drives, most in NFL; Texans are next, with 15 on 37 drives. Strangely, Patriots/Steelers have forced the fewest 3/outs (four each).

9) Falcons (7.0), Raiders (6.7) Redskins (6.5) are averaging the most yards per play. Rams/49ers (4.4 each) are last in yards/play, followed by Texans/Vikings (4.6).

8) Colts/Jets have allowed three TDs by defense/special teams, most in NFL. Saints, Bucs and Titans allowed two each. Minnesota scored three on defense/special teams, most in the league.

7) Colts play in London this week; usually the teams that play in London have their bye week the next week, but Indy requested that not happen this year, so I’ll be curious to see how they do next week, after so much travelling this week.

6) Buffalo Bills are only team in league two TD plays of 50+ yards this season. Jets have allowed three TDs of 50+ yards, most in NFL.

5) Colts have nine TDs thru three games, all on drives of 75+ yards, most in NFL. Chiefs have only one TD drive of 75+ yards in their first three games. Atlanta has allowed 12 TDs, all on drives of 75+ yards. Not good.

2) Cowboys (21 of 40), Lions (20 of 39) are only two teams converting more than half their 3rd down plays. Bills (10 of 36), Jaguars (12 of 42) have converted the lowest percentage on 3rd down.

1) Panthers/Bucs (218 each) have run the most plays this month, with Texans 3rd at 211. Bills (159), Bears (168) and Vikings (172) have run the fewest plays from scrimmage.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL BEST BETS:

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 43-56-3 43.43% -9300

O/U Picks 45-59-4 43.27% -9950


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 29

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIA at CIN 08:25 PM

MIA +7.5

O 45.0

[StarDust Bum]

Bengals dominate Dolphins, 'under' hits
September 29, 2016

CINCINNATI (AP) For most of the game, A.J. Green piled up more yards than the entire Miami Dolphins offense in a virtuoso performance. As an encore, he thrilled the crowd by juggling some Florida citrus.

The Bengals receiver followed his disappointing game with a dominating one - 173 yards and a touchdown - and a Cincinnati defense that was inspired by Vontaze Burfict's return clamped down on the Dolphins for a 22-7 victory Thursday night.

The Bengals (2-2) rebounded from a 29-17 home loss to Denver on Sunday with a solid all-around game against a depleted team.

Green led the way, beating the Dolphins (1-3) on every type of route . He was upset with himself after he dropped a pivotal third-down pass and failed to make an impact against the Broncos.

''I hold myself to a very high standard,'' said Green, who had 10 catches. ''I know what I'm capable of. Last week I didn't perform to that level. I had to refocus on a short week.''

During the first three quarters, Green had 166 yards on catches while Miami had 152 total yards. The Bengals' season-long problem of stalling out near the goal line forced them to settle for Mike Nugent's season-high five field goals.

Afterward, Green and Andy Dalton appeared on the postgame show, and the receiver entertained the dozens of Bengals fans who stayed around by smoothly juggling three oranges at the interview desk.

''Any time he was one-on-one, he was able to make the play,'' Dalton said.

The Dolphins were missing four starting offensive linemen, two linebackers, running back Arian Foster and tight end Jordan Cameron. They had one big play - Ryan Tannehill threw a 74-yard touchdown pass to Kenny Stills - but couldn't do anything else on offense.

''We've got to get it fixed and quick, and by that I mean Monday,'' Tannehill said. ''We're kind of in a dark spot right now. It's squarely on our shoulders.''

The Bengals' defense expected to get a lift from Burfict's return. The volatile linebacker was suspended by the NFL for the first three games because of his illegal hits. He got a loud ovation when he ran onto the field during introductions wearing a baseball cap. Burfict knocked down a pass and had three tackles.

''He's amazing,'' end Carlos Dunlap said. ''Did you see the plays he made? Those aren't plays you can coach. He came off his couch and played great. It's good to have him back.''

Mostly, it was Green's show. He caught a 51-yard pass off Dalton's scramble in the first half, and had a 43-yard catch that set up another field goal in the third quarter for a 19-7 lead.

REMEMBERING FERNANDEZ

A large fan banner in the upper deck at Paul Brown Stadium honored Miami Marlins pitcher Jose Fernandez, who died with two friends in a boat crash early Sunday near Miami Beach. The banner read: ''Jose 16 Heaven's Bright.''

STILL CAN'T RUN

The Bengals rushed for 77 yards and only a 2.1-yard average against the second-worst run defense in the league, one missing two starting linebackers.

SLOPPY DOLPHINS

Miami had seven penalties for 68 yards. The most egregious was by Terrence Fede, who pushed Kevin Huber to the ground after he punted in the third quarter. The penalty gave Cincinnati the ball, and the Bengals got a field goal out of it.

INJURIES

Dolphins: LT Branden Albert and C Anthony Steen were inactive with sprained ankles. Also missing were LBs Koa Misi (neck) and Jelani Jenkins (groin). C Mike Pouncey has missed all four games with a hip injury.

Bengals: TE Tyler Eifert was inactive again, contributing to the Bengals' trouble close to the goal line. He's recovering from offseason ankle surgery and returned to practice on a limited basis last week. CB Dre Kirkpatrick was inactive with a hamstring injury suffered Sunday. G Clint Boling sat out most of the fourth quarter with an injured left shoulder.

ANTHEM STATEMENTS

Stills and Dolphins safety Michael Thomas knelt with their hands over their hearts during the anthem.

FANTASY IMPACT

Tannehill was 15 of 25 for 189 yards with a touchdown, an interception, a fumble and five sacks. Dalton was 22 of 31 for 296 yards with a touchdown and a sack.

UP NEXT

The Dolphins begin a stretch of four straight home games against Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and the New York Jets.

The Bengals have a tough two-game stretch, playing Dallas and New England on the road. They're 1-5 in Dallas, dropping their last three. They've dropped their last six at New England, last winning in 1986.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY'S NIGHT'S RESULTS 0 - 2

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 43-57-3 43.00% -9850

O/U Picks 45-60-4 42.86% -10500

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Friday's six-pack

NFL trends to ponder with Week 4 already underway……..

— Dallas is 3-7-1 in last 11 games outside its division.

— Raiders covered eight of their last ten road games.

— Texans are 9-3 in last 12 games as a home favorite.

— Washington is 16-31-2 in its last 49 games as a favorite.

— New Orleans is 8-3-1 in last 12 games as an underdog.

— Colts covered three of last ten tries as a favorite.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 4

Sunday, October 2

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh

Game 275-276
October 2, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
137.544
Pittsburgh
138.625
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 5 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+5 1/2); Over

Los Angeles @ Arizona

Game 273-274
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
130.084
Arizona
138.851
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 9
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-7 1/2); Under

New Orleans @ San Diego

Game 271-272
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
128.548
San Diego
129.928
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
by 4 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+4 1/2); Over

Dallas @ San Francisco

Game 269-270
October 2, 2016 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.249
San Francisco
125.363
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 6
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(-2); Under

Denver @ Tampa Bay

Game 267-268
October 2, 2016 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
139.990
Tampa Bay
128.390
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 11 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-3); Over

Oakland @ Baltimore

Game 265-266
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
132.745
Baltimore
130.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3 1/2); Under

Tennessee @ Houston

Game 263-264
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
126.618
Houston
130.483
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 4
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5 1/2
41
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under

Detroit @ Chicago

Game 261-262
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
128.105
Chicago
126.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 3
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+3); Under

Carolina @ Atlanta

Game 259-260
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
134.392
Atlanta
135.756
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+3 1/2); Over

Seattle @ NY Jets

Game 257-258
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
135.504
NY Jets
133.059
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3); Under

Buffalo @ New England

Game 255-256
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
133.832
New England
142.907
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 4 1/2
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-4 1/2); N/A

Cleveland @ Washington

Game 253-254
October 2, 2016 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
123.502
Washington
131.990
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 8 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 251-252
October 2, 2016 @ 9:30 am

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
133.194
Jacksonville
126.188
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 7
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 2 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-2 1/2); Under


Monday, October 3

NY Giants @ Minnesota

Game 277-278
October 3, 2016 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
131.564
Minnesota
137.489
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 6
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Sunday's Games
Colts (1-2) vs Jaguars (0-3) (in London)– Jacksonville lost its two home games by total of 6 points, amid rumors that Bradley could be fired with loss here, as bye week looms. Indy had one offensive TD in 25 drives vs Jaguars LY; they gave up 296 rushing yards to Jax in those two games. Colts won six of last seven games vs Jaguars, but lost last one 51-16 here LY- Indy is 10-5 in visits here. Colts hit long pass with 1:17 left to beat Chargers and get its first win LW; Indy 4-9-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite, 16-12-1 in last 29 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jaguars play game here every year; 5-11 in last 16 games with spread of 3 or less points. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Browns (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)– Former Redskin QB RGIII returns to Maryland, with his arm in a sling. Browns started three different QBs in first three games, losing in OT after its rookie kicker missed FG at gun of regulation. Cleveland is 9-7-1 in last 17 games as a road underdog- they led last two weeks at half, ran ball for 145-169 yards, but couldn’t finish. Washington is 2-8 in its last ten games as a home favorite; they’ve already lost at home to Steelers/Dallas this year. Last two Redskin games were decided by total of 6 points- they won two of three series games, beating Browns 14-11 in ’08, in only meeting played here. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs spreas in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Bills (1-2) @ Patriots (3-0)– Garoppolo/Brissett are both banged up, unsure who starts at QB in last game before Brady returns. Patriots are 23-2 in last 25 series games, winning 40-32/20-13 in two games vs Buffalo LY. Bills lost 14 of last 15 visits here, winning in ’14. Buffalo ran ball for 208 yards LW, in first game with new OC, after running for total of 151 in first two games, but they threw for only 88 yards- they’ll need lot more balance here. Buffalo is 4-1-1 vs spread in last six games as a divisional road dog, 7-5-1 in last 13 overall as a road dog. Patriots are 5-1-3 in last nine games as a home favorite- they’ve historically been stronger HF vs non-division foes. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Seahawks (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)– Wilson has sprained knee, Seattle has bye week next; backup is TCU rookie Boykin (7-9/65 in mop-up duty LW). Seahawks are 5-6 in last 11 games as road favorite- they’re 6-3-2 in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less points. Jets turned ball over eight times LW in epic display of bad offense- they’re 8-2 vs spread in last 10 tries as home underdog, 6-10-1 in last 17 games with spread of 3 or less. Home side won last five series games; Seattle lost its last five games vs Jets in Swamp, but last visit was in 2003- they last beat Jets here in ’83. Jets lost 13-3/28-7 in last two visits to Seattle. NFC West teams are 1-4 vs spread in non-division games. AFC East teams are 5-3, 0-1 if favored.

Panthers (1-2) @ Falcons (2-1)– Atlanta scored nine TDs on 18 drives in winning last two games; average total in their first three games is 65 (over 3-0) . Falcons defense also allowed 12 TDs already, all on drives of 75+ yards- they’re not good. Panthers turned ball over 7 times (-4) in last two games; they’re 5-10 in last 15 games as road favorites, 10-5 in last 15 with a spread of 3 or less. Atlanta is 7-2 in last nine games as a home dog, 5-2 under Quinn in games with spread of 3 or less. Carolina defense has forced 17 3/outs, most in league- they won five of last seven series games, winning two of last three visits here, after losing previous five . NFL-wide, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Lions (1-2) @ Bears (0-3)– Chicago is 8-23-3 vs spread in last 34 games with spread of 3 or less points- they were outscored 83-45 in losing first three games, losing to rookie QBs last two weeks; they’ve lost 11 of last 12 home games, are 2-10 as home dogs in last 4+ years. Check Cutler’s status (thumb). Lions allowed 69 points in splitting pair of road games- they have only two TDs in last six visits to red zone. Detroit won last six series games, with five of six wins by 8 or less points (37-34/24-20 LY); Lions won last three visits here, by 2-6-4 points. Detroit is 5-8 as road favorite last 4+ years, 12-15-2 in last 27 games with spread of 3 or less. Home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games this season.

Titans (1-2) @ Texans (2-1)– Houston scored one TD in last two games; all three TDs NE scored against them LW came on drives of less than 50 yards. Titans were outscored 29-6 in first half of last two games; they’ve lost field position by 9-9-6 yards in first three games. Houston is 8-3 as home favorite under O’Brien (1-0 this year). Tennessee is 6-13 in last 19 games as road dog- they won only road game this year, 16-15 at Detroit. Texans are 7-1 in last eight series games, winning last four, all by 14+ points; Titans lost last four visits here, by 24-6-24-14 points. Tennessee scored one TD on 25 drives vs Texans LY, losing 20-6/34-6. NFL-wide, home favorites are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games. There are rumors that JJ Watt is hurt (back, check status) which would obviously hurt the Houston defense.

Raiders (2-1) @ Ravens (3-0)– Baltimore’s 3-0 start was vs Bills-Browns-Jags, not exactly a tough start, but 3-0 is 3-0; Ravens have only nine TDs, but tried nine FGs- they’re 7-2 in last nine games with Oakland- they lost 37-33 at Oakland in Week 2 LY. Raiders are 0-5 in Baltimore, losing last three by 19+ points each, but last visit was in ’12. Oakland is on road for third time in four weeks; they’ve run ball for 153 yards/game so far, with +4 turnover ratio. Oakland foes are just 11-33 on 3rd down. Ravens are 10-17-1 in last 28 games as home favorite. Raiders covered seven of last eight games as a road dog. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside the division; AFC North teams are 4-4.

Broncos (3-0) @ Buccaneers (1-2)– Tampa Bay allowed 77 points in losing last two weeks; they allowed defensive TD in both games. Bucs ran ball for 86 ypg so far- they miss injured RB Martin. Last 8+ years, Tampa Bay is 7-20-1 as a home dog- they gave up four TDs to Rams LW, after LA hadn’t scored a TD in first two games. Denver is off to 3-0 start in Siemian era; they’re 4-1-1 as a road favorite under Kubiak, 16-33 on 3rd down this year. Broncos are 6-2 vs Bucs, winning last three by 3-3-8 points; Tampa’s last series win was in 1999. Broncos are 2-1 here, with last visit in ’04. AFC West teams are 3-1 as favorites outside the division; NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread in non-division games.

Cowboys (2-1) @ 49ers (1-2)– Dallas scored 29 ppg in winning last two games, scoring 7 TDs on last 19 drives; WR Bryant has hairline fracture in knee (check status). 49ers allowed 83 points in losing last two games, even with +1 turnover ratio both games. Niners allowed eight TDs on foes’ last 25 drives. Cowboys covered five of last six games as a road favorite; they are 2-7-2 in last 11 games where spread was 3 or less points; 49ers are 8-3-1 in last 12 games as home dog, 4-1 in last five where spread was 3 or less. Home side lost four of last five series games; Dallas won three of last four visits here- average total in last seven series games is 55.6. NFC East teams are 4-2 vs outside its division; NFC West teams are 2-4.

Saints (0-3) @ Chargers (1-2)– San Diego could easily be 3-0, but blew late leads in losing both road games. Saints’ QB Brees played first five years of career in San Diego, going 30-28 as a starter. NO won by 5-7 points in last two games vs Chargers- this is Brees’ first game back here since leaving the Bolts. Short week/long trip for Saints squad that allowed 417+ yards in all three games so far- they lost to Giants without allowing an offensive TD. San Diego is 5-8 in last 13 games as home favorite; Saints are 6-3-1 in last ten games as a road underdog. Saints have forced only five 3/outs on 28 drives, 4th-least in NFL. NFC South teams are 3-5 vs spread outside division; AFC West teams are 7-3.

Rams (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Redbirds are 11-8-1 as home favorite under Arians, but 4-6 in last 10 tries; they got smoked 33-18 in Buffalo LW, turning ball over five (-4) times; Buffalo’s three TD drives were 53-52-47 yards. Underdogs covered all three LA games; Rams upset Seattle/Tampa last two weeks, holding off Bucs in red zone as game ended LW- they scored four TDs in Tampa, after not having any on offense in first two games- they averaged 6.6/6.8 yards/pass last two games, solid numbers. Arizona won four of last five series games, with three wins by 17+ points; Rams split last six visits here, which is much shorter trip now that team is in LA.

Chiefs (2-1) @ Steelers (2-1)— Pitt lost 23-13 at Arrowhead LY, ending 3-game series win streak; Chiefs lost last five visits here, with four of those losses by 8 or less points. KC’s last win in Steel City was in ’86. Steelers are 13-6 in last 19 games as home favorite, 1-0 this year; they got whacked 34-3 in Philly LW after allowing only two TDs on 19 drives in winning first two games- they’ve forced only four 3/outs so far, tied for least in NFL. Pitt gets RB Bell (suspension) back this week; rumors had him taking some practice reps at WR. AFC West teams are 7-3 vs spread outside its division, 4-2 as underdogs. Chiefs had eight takeaways in win over Jets LW; their only TD drive (defense scored two) was 35 yards.


Monday's Game
Giants (2-1) @ Vikings (3-0)— Giants’ three games were decided by total of six points; they beat Saints without scoring offensive TD, then lost 29-27 at home to Redskins LW, blowing 21-9 lead, allowing TD plays of 44-55 yards. Minnesota’s defense/special teams have three TDs, making up for offense (three TDs) that is getting used to new QB Bradford (beat Giants twice LY while with Eagles). Vikings are 9-2 as home favorite under Zimmer; Giants are 4-6-1 in last 11 games as a road underdog- they passed for 690 in two home games last two weeks, should enjoy climate inside dome. Minnesota allowed total of 40 points in three games; they gained only 284-211 yards in last two games, but lead NFL with a +8 turnover margin.

[StarDust Bum]

Trends To Watch - October
September 30, 2016

October is a great month for sports fans alike with the MLB playoffs and the start of the NBA season. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during Halloween’s month.

That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October. All we extracted from the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine.

We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer.

Enjoy!

HOME TEAMS

Good: If there is one aspect you can count on this month, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers covering spreads at home. The Steelers have annually begun to hit their stride in October and particularly so at Heinz Field. The Steelers are 34-15 ATS and have Kansas City (10/2), the Jets (10/9) and New England (10/23) in the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Good): Another high quality squad this loves home cookin' this month is Cincinnati, who is 19-10 against the oddsmakers. Too bad this year's schedule has so many road games with only Cleveland on the Oct. 23rd paying a visit.

Keep an eye on (Bad): For underperforming teams at home we find three that fit the bill. Chicago (18-29 ATS) is no surprise and neither is Jacksonville (14-23 ATS), but Seattle (16-26 ATS) with the 12th man certainly is.

The Bears have Detroit to start the month, the Jaguars in the middle of the month and Minnesota on Halloween.

Jacksonville justifiably gives up a home game for London trip and only has Oakland on the 23rd. The Seahawks have three away games and a bye, which means only Atlanta on the 16th are on Coffee Town.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): With the defending NFC champions Carolina off to a slow start, they will look to enhance 26-15 ATS road record against division foes Atlanta (10/2) and New Orleans (10/16).

The New York Giants always had a solid reputation at road warriors under former coach Tom Coughlin. The G-Men will be tested in back to back trips against Minnesota (10/3) and Green Bay (10/9) just six days apart.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona will be challenged to improve pathetic 14-27 ATS mark this month, playing on first Thursday game at San Francisco and the day before Halloween in a NFC title tilt rematch at Carolina.

Cincinnati is 20-34 ATS away from home and its arduous early season slate continues with consecutive contests at Dallas and at New England beginning Oct.9th.

Seattle is only 19-35 ATS away from the Northwest this month and has a trio of sojourns to New Jersey (Jets) to start October and finishes things in the Arizona desert and in the bayou of Louisiana.

Tampa Bay has a rare Monday matchup at Carolina on the 10th and 13 days later in Frisco, and will be trying to better 16-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): The team from St. Louis is a sharp 21-11 handing out points and will try and see if that act continues in L.A. Only contest with Buffalo (10/9) might fit the bill.

San Francisco is 39-23 ATS, with nearly all of that accomplished with far better teams than this one. Possibly a date with Tampa Bay (10/23) could make this active angle.

Bad: The Bears are stinky 11-23 ATS as favorites and they catch Jacksonville (10/16) two weeks after their London trip.

Keep an eye on (Bad): With two games against New England this month, you know the Bills will not be favored in those, but assuredly they could better 20-30 ATS mark against the Niners at home on the 16th.

Jacksonville is another club not suited for handing out points, with only a 10-19 spread record. The Raiders in north Florida on the 23rd of the month is only possibility for winner.

Tampa Bay is none too pretty 16-26 ATS doling out digits. Contests at San Francisco and Oakland are only two games of the month where they could be favored.

We start this month not exactly sure what the status of Russell Wilson will be, but we do know Seattle is sickly 15-28 ATS as favored outfit.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Pittsburgh is remarkable 23-9 ATS this month in the role, but the only slightly conceivable chance they might be when New England and Tom Brady visit on the 23rd.

Keep an eye on (Good): Speaking of the Patriots, they are pretty good road dogs also at 22-14 ATS. They could be the pooch at the aforementioned Steelers. Somebody has to be, right?

Chicago is 28-17 ATS when receiving points and they will get a lot of practice this month to better that record, because the only opportunity they could be favored in five games is home against Jacksonville (10/16).

Mentioned the Giants as a quality road outfit and they have been even better as underdogs (23-13 ATS) and will be in that role in the Midwest at the Vikings and Packers.

Keep an eye on (Bad): San Francisco will be a underdog in first three games of the month against Dallas, Arizona and at Buffalo. The Tampa Bay tilt on the 23rd in Santa Clara is too be determined and nobody knows how the Niners will matchup against a bye week. Either way, the Niners are still 13-24 ATS.

We forget how bad Seattle used to be as 21-32 ATS record shows. However, only chance the Seahawks will be getting points is at Arizona (10/23).

DIVISION

Bad: Are the 49ers really 2-14 ATS against the NFC West in October? Yes they are and they will be home to Arizona (10/6).

In the same category is Cincinnati at 12-29 ATS and they will welcome Cleveland to the Queen City in the first of two battles of Ohio.

Keep an eye on (Bad): New Orleans has not been a good home division team for a numbers of seasons and is only 13-24 ATS in that situation against any NFC South foes. They have the Panthers in town on the 16th.

Indianapolis has not seen much success beating spreads versus AFC South foes at 15-23 ATS. Not much help coming for the Colts as they will playing all three opponents away from home, the first in London against Jacksonville.

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 4

September 30, 2016

Week 3 Record: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS

Overall Record: 11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS

Review: The only favorite to come through last week was the Chiefs, who dominated the Jets as three-point favorites. The Lions managed a backdoor cover as 7 ½-point road underdogs at Green Bay after erasing a 31-3 deficit in a 31-24 loss. The Steelers and Bengals each lost in the favorite role, but the Redskins were able to rally to knock off the Giants as short underdogs.

Seahawks (-2 ½, 40) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

Seattle
Record: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Seahawks leave the west coast for the first time this season, while seeking consecutive victories for the first time. Seattle blasted San Francisco last Sunday, 37-18 after being held to 15 points in its first two games. Quarterback Russell Wilson left with a sprained left knee, but he is expected to play on Sunday. Seattle has allowed the second-fewest amount of points in the NFL with 37, 10 behind Philadelphia. However, the Seahawks have struggled on the road against AFC foes under Pete Carroll by posting a 3-9 SU and 3-7-2 ATS record since 2010.

New York
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 65/1

The Jets couldn’t get out of their own way last week at Kansas City by turning the ball over eight times, including six interceptions thrown by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Kansas City cruised past New York, 24-3, as Fitzpatrick was picked off twice in the end zone. The Jets still own a solid 4-1 ATS record as an underdog during Todd Bowles’ tenure as head coach, including a home ‘dog victory over the Patriots last December. The Jets are hosting the Seahawks for the first time since 2004, as New York has lost each of the past two meetings to Seattle in 2008 and 2012.

Best Bet: New York +2 ½

Panthers (-3, 50) at Falcons – 1:00 PM EST

Carolina
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The defending NFC champions have stumbled out of the gate with losses to the Broncos and Vikings through three games. Carolina managed 10 early points against Minnesota, but were held scoreless in the final three quarters of a 22-10 home defeat as six-point favorites. Quarterback Cam Newton has thrown as many touchdowns as interceptions through three contests (5), as four of the interceptions came in the two defeats. The last time Carolina visited Atlanta in 2015, the Falcons snapped the Panthers’ 14-game winning streak in a 20-13 victory as seven-point underdogs.

Atlanta
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 60/1

The Falcons have been impressive the last two weeks by putting up a combined 80 points in road victories at Oakland and New Orleans. In Monday’s 45-32 triumph over the Saints, Atlanta’s running game shifted into high-gear with 217 yards on the ground, including three touchdowns from Tevin Coleman and 152 yards from Devonta Freeman. In spite of the win at New Orleans, the Falcons have struggled against division foes under Dan Quinn by compiling a 2-6 SU/ATS record the since the start of 2015. However, the Falcons have thrived in the role of an underdog by putting together a 7-2 ATS mark in nine games when receiving points.

Best Bet: Atlanta +3

Raiders at Ravens (-3 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Oakland
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Raiders’ defense has been eaten up through three games, allowing a league-worst 476 yards a contest and an average of 340 yards through the air. Oakland managed to hold Tennessee to 10 points in last Sunday’s 17-10 road victory, while causing three takeaways for its second consecutive 2-1 start. The Silver and Black closed as a short favorite in Week 3, but the Raiders have been terrific in the role of a road underdog in Jack Del Rio’s tenure by posting a 7-0 ATS mark. Oakland looks to beat Baltimore for the second straight season after knocking off the Ravens as six-point home ‘dogs last September, 37-33.

Baltimore
Record: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Ravens weren’t expected to lead the AFC North following three weeks, but Baltimore has picked up three wins over teams that own a combined 1-8 record. John Harbaugh’s squad edged past Jacksonville last week, 19-17 as the Ravens have scored only four touchdowns this season, while kicking nine field goals. Baltimore finished last season at 0-6-2 ATS as a favorite, but have improved in that category this season by covering two of its first three when laying points. The Ravens have stepped up defensively by ranking second in yards allowed (254.3) and third in passing yards given up (168.3).

Best Bet: Baltimore -3 ½

Broncos (-3, 43) at Buccaneers – 4:05 PM EST

Denver
Record: 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 3-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The defending Super Bowl champions haven’t skipped a beat with Trevor Siemian at quarterback, winning each of their first three games. Denver took care of Cincinnati as a short road underdog last Sunday, 29-17 as Siemian threw a career-high four touchdown passes, including a pair of connections with Emmanuel Sanders. Since the start of last season, the Broncos have excelled as an underdog by going 8-0 ATS, but have compiled a 5-7-2 ATS mark as a favorite. Denver is visiting Tampa Bay for the first time since 2004, as the Bucs covered as underdogs in losses in the Mile High City in 2008 and 2012.

Tampa Bay
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 200/1

The Buccaneers shot out of the gate with an impressive road victory over the Falcons as Jameis Winston threw four touchdown passes. However, Tampa Bay has taken a step back the last two weeks by falling to Arizona and Los Angeles, while allowing 77 points in those two defeats. Winston racked up a career-high 405 passing yards against the Rams, but the Bucs dropped to 0-3 in his three career games when putting up at least 300 yards. Since the start of last season, Tampa Bay has compiled a 3-6 ATS record at Raymond James Stadium, while cashing only once in the past five overall in the underdog role.

Best Bet: Tampa Bay +3

Cowboys (-2, 45 ½) at 49ers – 4:25 PM EST

Dallas
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 22/1

The Cowboys rebounded from a one-point opening week setback to the Giants to beat the Redskins and Bears the last two games. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott threw a touchdown pass and ran for another in last Sunday night’s 31-17 blowout of Chicago to pick up their second home cover in the past nine opportunities at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are listed as a road favorite for the first time this season after going 1-1 SU/ATS in this situation in 2015. Dallas will be without big-play threat Dez Bryant as the wide receiver is sidelined with a knee injury.

San Francisco
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 400/1

The 49ers return home following consecutive road blowouts at Carolina and Seattle, as San Francisco’s lone victory this season came at home against Los Angeles in a 28-0 shutout. San Francisco’s defense has been sliced up the last two weeks by giving up 73 points to the Panthers and Seahawks, while dropping to 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. The UNDER has been nearly automatic at Levi’s Stadium since the beginning of 2015, finishing UNDER the total in eight of the previous nine home contests.

Best Bet: San Francisco +2

Rams at Cardinals (-8, 43) – 4:25 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1

The Rams are surprisingly sitting atop the NFC West through three games alongside the Seahawks at 2-1. Technically, Los Angeles has the early tie-breaker advantage over Seattle thanks to a Week 2 home victory, but the Rams’ offense exploded in a 37-32 triumph at Tampa Bay last Sunday to cash outright as 3 ½-point underdogs. Running back Todd Gurley finally busted out by rushing for 85 yards and two touchdowns, while quarterback Case Keenum threw his first two touchdown passes of the season. The Rams have won and covered four consecutive games in the underdog role since Week 14 of last season, while knocking off the Cardinals as seven-point ‘dogs last October, 24-22 at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Arizona
Record: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

It’s been a rough start for the defending NFC West champions, who have lost two of their first three games. The only good news from this 1-2 start is both defeats came to New England and Arizona, a pair of AFC foes. Arizona fell behind Buffalo last Sunday, 17-0 and never recovered in a 33-18 setback as five-point road favorites. Carson Palmer was intercepted four times in the loss, as the Cardinals’ quarterback was never picked off more than two times in a game in 2015. Palmer diced up the Rams’ defense last season by throwing for 352 and 356 yards, while Arizona owns a solid 7-1 mark at home off a loss since 2013.

Best Bet: Arizona -8

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 4
September 30, 2016


The ‘over’ posted a 9-7 record last weekend and most of the results were never in doubt. Atlanta, Washington and Denver have all seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in their first three games while Houston is the only team to watch the the ‘under’ cash in all of its games. Through three weeks, the ‘over’ holds a slight edge at 25-22-1

Quick Observations

-- Total Talk followers have now seen the “Thursday Night” angle start 2-0 this season with the New England-Buffalo matchup pending in Week 4.

-- Houston was shutout last Thursday at New England, the second blanking of this season. The Rams earned the first bagel in Week 1 to San Francisco (28-0) and rebounded in Week 2 with a 9-3 win over Seattle, which is rare. In the previous five seasons, teams off shutouts were 7-14, now 8-14 the L.A. victory. From a total perspective, they averaged just 16.6 points per game and that trend continued with the Rams only scoring nine points.

-- Sticking with shutouts, the 49ers have allowed a combined 947 yards on defense and 83 points since beating Los Angeles 28-0 in the Monday Night opener.

-- There have been two totals listed in the thirties this season, both easy ‘under’ winners. Five totals have closed in the fifties and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those contests.

-- Still early to get a solid sample size but halftime bettors have watched the Vikings and Titans go ‘under’ in the 1st half in each of their first three games, while the Buccaneers and Redskins have been great second-half ‘over’ (3-0) bets.

Off to London

Indianapolis and Jacksonville will meet at Wembley Stadium this Sunday morning (9:30 a.m. ET) from London, England in the first of four international games set for the regular season. This will be the 15th game played in London and total bettors have seen a 7-7 stalemate through the first 14 games.

It should be noted that Jacksonville has played in this matchup three times and the ‘over’ has connected in all three with an average score of 55 combined points per game. The Jaguars are 1-2 and the lone win came last year when they outlasted the Bills 34-31 in a game that saw three defensive scores.

The total on this game is hovering between 49 and 50 points, which seems a tad high knowing the ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 encounters between the pair. However, Jacksonville did blast Indianapolis 51-16 last season at home but that game was also helped with three scores from non-defensive units.

West to East

My colleague at VegasInsider.com Kevin Rogers wrote a piece this summer on Time Zone Trends in the NFL and how East and West coast teams fared with travel to opposite coasts. It’s a solid read that points out angles to follow from last season, which included a quick note on total results.

In the 2015 regular season, West Coast teams playing in the Eastern Time Zone saw the ‘over’ go 11-5 (69%) and that tendency has carried over this fall with three straight wins to the high side.

Week 2 - San Francisco 27 at Carolina 46 – Over 44 ½
Week 3 - Arizona 18 at Buffalo 33 – Over 48
Week 3 - Los Angeles 37 at Tampa Bay 32 – Over 40 ½

Make a note that we included Arizona as a West Coast team along with Oakland, San Diego, Seattle, San Francisco and the newbie – Los Angeles.

Week 4 has two games that fit the above situation:

Oakland at Baltimore
Seattle at N.Y. Jets

Divisional Action

We’ve got six divisional games set for Week 4 and it appears the familiarity angle has helped the offensive units early in the season with the ‘over’ going 9-4 in the first 13 divisional games played this season.

Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville: (See Above)

Buffalo at New England: Due to the quarterback situation with the Patriots, no early total was posted on this game but does it matter? New England has averaged 27 PPG with backups and Buffalo’s total defense is ranked 23rd. What should be noted is that these teams have played to a pair of shootouts in the last two meetings from Buffalo (37-22, 40-32) while the last two encounters from Foxboro were low-scoring affairs (17-9, 20-13). As of Friday evening, a few shops were holding anywhere between 43 and 44 on this total.

Carolina at Atlanta: Does this matchup really warrant a total in the fifties? When you look at Atlanta’s offensive (34.7 PPG) and defensive (30.3 PPG) scoring numbers, it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here. However, the low side has hit in six straight in this series and the Falcons have been held to 12 PPG during this low-scoring stretch versus the Panthers.

Detroit at Chicago: The number on this game jumped from 46 to 47 ½ and both clubs have been plagued with key injuries to defensive starters. If you’re going to ride total trends in this series, then make a note that ‘under’ is on a 4-0 run from Soldier Field and the ‘over’ has gone 4-0 in the last four between the pair from Ford Field.

Tennessee at Houston: Tough total to handicap here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a handful of points posted. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings in this series yet the total (40 ½) is the lowest number posted in Week 4. The Texans held the Titans to six points in each of the two meetings last season but Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota played in neither of those meetings and for whatever reason, the former Oregon standout has played much better on the road in his young career.

Los Angeles at Arizona: The total has gone 5-5 in the last 10 meetings between the pair but three of the last four playing in the desert have seen the ‘over’ connect. Arizona has averaged 25 PPG during this stretch. Even though the Cardinals were held to 18 last week in their loss to the Bills, they put up more yards than Buffalo but turned the ball over five times.

Under the Lights

After watching the ‘over’ cash last Sunday and Monday night, the Bengals and Dolphins easily went ‘under’ (46 ½) their closing number this past Thursday. Including those results, bettors have seen the total go 5-5-1 through 11 primetime games.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh: Watching the Steelers only score three points last week was very surprising and I doubt will see that production again, especially with running back Le’Veon Bell returning to action this week. However this Kansas City defense is on fire right now and since allowing 21 first-half points to San Diego in Week 1, the Chiefs have surrendered just five field goals in 2 ½ games (10 quarters). This pair has met four times since 2011 and the ‘under’ cashed easily in every game (13-9, 16-13, 20-12, 23-13).

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: The Giants and Vikings have both seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their first three games and Minnesota could easily be 3-0 if its defense didn’t score twice in Week 1. The Vikings were a great ‘under’ team last season (12-4-1) and that trend has continued. The offense plays very slow, averaging 57.3 plays per game (ranked 29th) and their defense (295 YPG, 13.3 PPG) is ranked in the Top 5 in both yards and points. New York isn’t clicking on offense (21 PPG) right now and it’s TD-FG (6-5) ratio isn’t a good sign for ‘over’ bettors. These teams played outdoors in Minnesota last season and the Vikings routed the Giants 49-17 as the ‘over’ (45) easily cashed.

Fearless Predictions

Our teaser wager kept us in the black last week ($90) and kept the overall bankroll growing after three weeks ($280). As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Oakland-Baltimore 46 ½

Best Under: Tennessee-Houston 40 ½

Best Team Total: Under Dallas 23

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

Over Oakland-Baltimore 37 ½
Under Los Angeles-Arizona 52
Under Denver-Tampa Bay 52

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 4
September 30, 2016


Hello to our friends in London!

The NFL once again sends you their tired and weak with the 0-3 Jacksonville Jaguars for the first of three London NFL games this season. But this is actually London's home team, kind of. It's their club at least one game a year through an agreement that expires in 2021. Soon they'll probably have hooligans protecting the club like a proper English football firm.

The best thing about the London NFL games is they get to legally bet at bet shops all around Wembley Stadium. And the fans no longer cheer the loudest when an extra-point or field goal is score.

Here in the states the Colts opened as 1-point favorites over London's Jaguars and Indianapolis money has pushed Indianapolis to -2.5 The total opened at 49.5 and its down to 49 as of Friday afternoon.

William Hill sports books reported they have 80 percent of the cash on the Colts. After six straight Colts wins over Jacksonville, the Jags finally won in December, 51-16. The Jags covered both games last season and an 0-5 ATS streak against them..

Washington has a couple different numbers in Las Vegas for their home game against the Cleveland Browns, who showed some fight last week in their overtime loss at Miami. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Redskins -9 and on Friday they went to -7.5. That's the low number. The high number is -9.5 at Aliante. Most everyone is is -8 or -8.5. The total jumped from 45.5 to 46.5 on Wednesday. William Hill Has 90 percent of the cash on Cleveland taking the points.

Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett are both 'questionable' for the New England home game against Buffalo. Both were limited in practice and who starts will be a game time decision. Most books still don't have the game on the board as they await for concrete information. CG Technology books have the Patriots -6 (-115) and Station Casinos has them -6.5. Boyd Gaming has the only total in town posted at 43.

The Westgate opened Seattle -3 (EV) for its road game at the New York Jets. It went to -2.5 (flat) quickly and has been steady. The total has dropped from 41.5 to 40. The Seahawks offense finally came to life last week with a 37-18 win against the 49ers while the Jets come of an awful turnover infested game at Kansas City. After the public parlay bettors all stayed from their Seahawks last week, they're all over them this week.

The Carolina Panthers opened at -3.5 and are now 3 (flat) for their game at Atlanta. Cam Newton has been beat up in two losses to the Denver and Minnesota defenses. The Falcons give up 30 points a game. The total has moved up from 50 to 50.5.

Detroit opened as 2.5-point favorites at Chicago and it moved to -2.5 on Monday where it stayed until Wednesday when it moved when the Westgate went to -3 (EV). They're 3 (flat) now, while the total has gone from 47 to 47.5 with a brief stop at 48. The Lions have swept the Bears the last three seasons. The Bears are 0-3 and still banged up using back-up Brian Hoyer at quarterback.

The Houston Texans don't have All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt and apparently there are a few bettors and bookmakers that think his value to the number is worth 1.5-points. On Sunday night, Houston opened as a 6.5-point home favorite against Tennessee. On Tuesday the number dropped to -5.5 and on Thursday it dropped from -5 to -4.5. The total is consistent at 40.5.

Baltimore has won and covered all three of their games, but are only -3.5 at home against Oakland. A little bit of money came in on the Raiders so the Ravens are now -3.5 (EV). The total hasn't moved off 46.5

The Denver Broncos are also a perfect 3-0 both SU and ATS, but they're rapidly increased rating makes them -3 at Tampa Bay. Bettors pushed the number from an opener of -2.5 to -3 real quick on Sunday when the number opened. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.

Dallas opened -3 at San Francisco and settled at -2 on Thursday. The total has dropped from 46 to 45.

San Diego opened as 3.5-point home favorites over New Orleans, and got as high as -4.5, but settled at -4 on Wednesday. The total shot up from 52 to 53.5 after the Saints Monday night performance.

Arizona opened as 9-point favorite over Los Angeles on Sunday night bettors jumped on the 'dog Monday and on Wednesday the number moved to -8. The total opened 43.5 and sits at 43.

Pittsburgh opened as a 5.5-point home favorite over Kansas City and boosted the number to -6 Monday. It got as low as -4.5 on Thursday before settling at -5. The total has gone from 47.5 to 47.

The top public parlay plays of the week so far are the Broncos, Seahawks, Cowboys and Lions. The bettors got buried last week with their parlays so we'll how strong and confident they come to the window this week.