The Bum's 2016 NFL Sept. Best Bets, Opinions, Trends, News !

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Week 3 NFL

Texans (2-0) @ Patriots (2-0)– Rookie QB Brissett makes first NFL start here; Garropolo will be a backup- they didn’t sign another QB. Tough spot for Texans; long travel with short week in their road opener. Houston won its first two games at home, not allowing a TD in 2nd half of either game. Patriots scored TD on first drive of all four halves so far, winning first two games 23-21/31-24. New England won last four series games, three by 13+; they won 27-6 (-5) in Houston LY, outgaining Texans 313-189. Houston is 0-3 in Foxboro, losing all three by 13+. Houston coach O’Brien is a former Patriot QB coach. Brissett was 15-11 as a starter at NC State last two years. Texans won four of last five road openers. Over last 8+ years, Patriots are 3-0 as a home underdog. Houston is 4-0 as a road favorite under O’Brien.

Cardinals (2-0) @ Bills (0-2)– Buffalo fired its OC after 37-31 loss LW; not sure how that helps; they had three extra days to rest after loss to Jets. Curious to see how the play calling changes, since players/owner met about play calling before OC was fired. Arizona covered its last eight road openers (6-2 SU); under is 7-3 in their last 10 road openers- they split first two home games, despite a +7 turnover margin. Redbirds are 8-2 as road favorites in Arians era; they’re 4-6 vs spread coming off a win. Bills won five of last six series ganes. Cardinals are 1-3 in Buffalo, with last visit in ’04, only win in 1971. Buffalo covered nine of its last 11 games as a home underdog.

Raiders (1-1) @ Titans (1-1)– LeBeau’s defense allowed only one TD on 18 drives in first two games; they rallied from down 15-3 in 4th quarter to even record at Detroit. Oakland has allowed 69 points in two games, giving up eight TDs on 21 drives. Raiders allowed 1,035 TY in two games, giving up six TDs, four FGs in 11 red zone drives. Tennessee won three of last four series games; five of last seven series games were decided by 5 or less points. Raiders are 2-5 in Tennessee; they beat Titans 24-21 (-1) LY, outgaining them 407-249, converting 8-15 on 3rd down. Oakland covered six of its last seven games as a road underdog. Tennessee is 9-15-1 in its last 25 games as a home favorite.

Browns (0-2) @ Dolphins (0-2)– Cleveland blew 20-0 first quarter lead LW, now start 3rd QB in three weeks (USC rookie Kessler). Dolphins drop way down in class here, after losing to Seattle/Patriots- over last decade, they’re 11-26 as home favorites. Miami won three of its last four home openers, are 4-7 vs spread in last 11, with last seven HOs going over total. Cleveland ran ball for 265 yards in first two games- they were outscored 39-3 in second half of the games. Browns won four of last six series games, splitting last two visits here, last of which was in ’10. Five of last six series totals were 33 or less. Miami was outscored 30-6 in first half of its games; all four of their TDs came in second half of games.

Ravens (2-0) @ Jaguars (0-2)– Baltimore rallied back from down 20-0 in Cleveland LW; they outscored first two opponents 26-0 in second half, are 10-8-1 vs spread in last 19 road games. Jacksonville is 11-21-1 vs spread in its last 33 home games; they allowed 65 points in losing first two games. Jax is 3-2 in last five series games, beating Ravens 22-20 (+5) LY, in a game where Baltimore outgained them 397-258 but was -3 in turnovers. Ravens are 2-6 in last eight visits here, losing last two 30-2/12-7. Since ’12, Baltimore is 12-14-3 in games with spread of 3 or less points; since ’11, Jaguars are 8-15. NFL-wide, home teams are 10-10 vs spread in non-divisional games so far this season.

Lions (1-1) @ Packers (1-1)– Detroit blew 21-3 lead in opener, won it late, then blew 15-3 lead LW and lost at home to Titans. Lions snapped 21-game skid at Lambeau LY, then lost rematch on last play of game, on long Hail Mary pass- two games were decided by total of six points. Green Bay gained 294-263 TY in splitting first two road games- over last 7 years, Pack is 33-19-1 as a home favorite (9-5 in last 14 NFC North games)- they won eight of last nine home openers (6-2 last 8 at as favorite in HOs); four of their last five HOs went over total. Detroit is 6-11 as an underdog under Caldwell, 6-7 on road; last 8 years, they’re 6-10 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite.

Broncos (2-0) @ Bengals (1-1)– Cincy is 12-6-2 vs spread in last 20 games as home faves; they won last six regular season games the week after playing rival Steelers. First road start for Denver QB Siemian; last 6 years, Broncos are 8-10 as road underdogs. Denver won five of last six series games, going 3-2 in last five visits to Queen City- they beat Bengals 20-17 (-3.5) in OT LY. Cincy is 9-3 in last 12 home openers, winning last four- they’re 6-3-1 as favorites in HOs. Denver won its last three road openers, is 6-3 in last nine. Under is 9-4-1 in Broncos’ last 14 road openers, 7-1 in Bengals’ last eight HOs. Bengals had only 103 yards on ground in first two games, 690 passing- they’re 7-27 on third down, need more balance.

Vikings (2-0) @ Panthers (1-1)– Minnesota is 15-2 vs spread in its last 17 regular season games; Vikes are 10-3 as road dogs under Zimmer. Bradford was 22-31/254 in his first Minny start, nine days after his trade from Philly. Vikings forced six turnovers (+5) in their first two games- they won field position by 9-12 yards. Minnesota is 7-5 in series with four of last five decided by 10+ points; they’re 1-2 here, with last visit in ’11. Since 2013, Carolina is 13-4-2 as a home favorite; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games. Panthers are 16-30 on 3rd down this year; they’ve outrushed opponents 333-213. One of Bradford’s many season-ending injuries happened here, when he played for the Rams.

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Tech Trends - Week 3
September 21, 2016

THURSDAY, SEPT. 22

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at NEW ENGLAND (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Lots of Belichick connections in Houston. Pats won 27-6 LY but Texans have covered their five reg.-season games since. Belichick 6-1-3 vs. line at home since LY, 14-6-3 last 23 at Gillette, 40-18 “over” at home in reg season since 2010.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Pats, based on “totals” and team trends.


SUNDAY, SEPT. 25

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Kubiak 6-1 as dog since LY, Broncs 6-2-1 vs. line away in 2015. Cincy 4-1-1 vs. line in the six games Dalton started and finished LY at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
With loss to Vikes, Titans fall to 2-8 SU and vs. spread under Mularkey, and Tennessee now 8-28-3 last 39 on board. Raiders 7-2 vs. line away since LY.
Tech Edge: Raiders, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Rex no covers first two TY but he was 5-2 vs. line at home LY and Bills have covered three of last four as home dog. Cards 8-2 vs. spread last ten as reg.-season visitor.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags have now covered 3 of last 4 as home dog and also “over” 13-6 last 19 since late 2014. If JV chalk note 3-3 mark in rare role since 2014. If Ravens a dog note Harbaugh 4-1 vs. line in role away LY.
Tech Edge: Ravens, if dog, and "over," based on Jags “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CLEVELAND at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies on 2-9-1 spread skid since mid 2015. Also “under” six of last seven. Dolphins just 5-11 as home chalk since 2013.
Tech Edge: “Under,” based on Browns “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
G-Men 5-1 SU and vs. line last six vs. Skins. Gruden very modest numbers save for last four games of 2015 reg season, otherwise 10-21 vs. line other 31 games since 2014.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions won at Lambeau for first time since ‘91 a year ago! Had failed to cover previous four at Pack. Detroit on 8-3 spread uptick since mid 2015. Pack only 4-4 as home chalk LY, also “under” 7-1 at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to Lions and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Could have been a playoff game LY. Zimmer 10-1 last eleven as dog, Vikes 25-9 vs. spread on Zimmer’s watch since 2014. Also “under” 11-6 away for Zimmer. Cam 9-2 vs. line at home since LY, also “over” 8-2-1 last 11 at B of A.
Tech Edge: Slight to Vikings, based on extended Zimmer marks.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Hawks 8-0-1 vs. line since 2012 against Niners, and have won SU last five meetings, though they're 0-2 vs. line in 2016. This series also “under” 6-1 last seven. Though Hawks have cooled a bit at home, only 4-5 vs. spread last nine at CenturyLink. Niners 2-9 last eleven as road dog.
Tech Edge: "Under" and slight to Seahawks, based on "totals" and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
LOS ANGELES at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bucs were 1-6 as home chalk for Lovie the past two seasons. But Fisher just 2-7-1 vs. line last ten on road. Rams also “under” 13-4-1 last 18 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Bucs and "under," based on recent Ram road woes.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Steel 10-3 last 12 reg.-season chalk. Steel also “under” 8-3 last 11 on road.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. JETS at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Jets 4-0-1 as dog since LY, also 6-3-2 spread uptick as visitor. Jets also “over” 13-6 since late 2014. Chiefs only 3-6 as home chalk since LY.
Tech Edge: Jets and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Philip Rivers 5-1 vs. line against Colts. Bolts 19-8-1 as road dog since 2012. Colts 2-5-1 last eight at Lucas Oil chalk.
Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CHICAGO at DALLAS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jerry Jones 8-27 as home chalk in reg season since 2010, including bad loss to Bears last time Chicago visited in 2012.
Tech Edge: Bears, based on team trends.


MONDAY, SEPT. 26

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Falcs on 3-11 spread skid since early 2015. Though Falcs had covered three straight vs. Saints before losing both LY. Falcs were 4-1 as dog LY. Saints only 4-10-1 as Superdome chalk since 2014.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons, based on extended Saints Superdome chalk woes.

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NFL Week 3 Essentials
September 21, 2016

No one can say the first two weeks of the NFL season haven’t been eventful. Already, injuries and upsets have probably altered what you thought you knew when September began. Here’s all you need to know about Week 3’s slate:

Thursday, Sept. 22

Houston at New England: Although Jimmy Garoppolo (shoulder) hasn’t officially been ruled out for this one, it’s likely that rookie Jacoby Brissett will make his first career start as he tries to move the Patriots out to 3-0 in the penultimate game before Tom Brady returns from suspension. Former New England offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien brings his Texans in for this battle unbeaten, patiently utilizing the run game to play to his team’s strengths and keep the pressure off Brock Osweiler. New RB Lamar Miller has had 53 carries through Houston’s first two games. The Texans have only beaten the Patriots once in seven career meetings (2010).

Sunday, Sept. 25

Denver at Cincinnati: The Broncos hit the road for the first time this season as Trevor Siemian looks to continue his impressive start, but it’s the defense that has been the driving force for the defending champs. Von Miller was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week and has four sacks through two games. Even with DeMarcus Ware (fractured arm) out, Denver’s pressure should pose major issues for the Bengals, who have largely struggled offensively outside of hitting a few big plays to A.J. Green against New York’s Darrelle Revis in the season opener. Considering Cincy barely won that contest, a loss in its first home game could cause panic among the natives. The Broncos won last year’s meeting in Week 16 in OT 20-17, but neither starting QB in that game, Osweiler and A.J. McCarron, are expected to be a part of this one since Andy Dalton is healthy again.


Oakland at Tennessee: Second-year QB Marcus Mariota went from looking dehydrated on the sidelines to producing the largest Titans fourth-quarter comeback in a decade. Both the offensive line and secondary have stood out thus far for the Titans, making the first 2-1 start since 2013 possible with the Raiders in town. Only Oakland and Indianapolis have surrendered over 30 points in each of the first two games, but the Colts have an excuse given all their injuries. The Raiders have too much talent on that side of the ball to be struggling this much and picked off Mariota twice in last season’s 24-21 win in Nashville. Derek Carr threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns in that game.

Arizona at Buffalo: The Cardinals bounced back from a Week 1 loss to the Pats by trouncing the Bucs, but now have to go across the country to face a desperate Bills squad that should benefit from a few days of extra rest after playing last Thursday. With the buzzards circling around Rex Ryan and New England on tap next week, this is a must-win for a team that still has Sammy Watkins (foot) gutting it out through pain and top DT Marcell Dareus suspended. The Bills have actually won five of six in this series dating back to 1986 when the Cards were still in St. Louis. The franchise hasn’t tasted victory in Buffalo since 1971 and is playing for just the fourth time in Orchard Park, where Arizona has never won at the newly renamed New Era Field.

Baltimore at Jacksonville: The Ravens rallied past the Browns to improve to 2-0 and saw TE Dennis Pitta make a triumphant return from what many felt would be a career-ending injury. Despite the good vibes, the combined record of Baltimore’s opponents entering this one is 0-6 and Joe Flacco has looked rusty as he returns from last year’s ACL and MCL tears, so the Jaguars have an opportunity to snap a five-game losing streak that dates back to December. Jacksonville hasn’t lost to Baltimore at home since 2001, winning the last two meetings. Jags kicker Jason Myers won last November’s Week 10 encounter with a 53-yard field goal at the gun, 22-20. Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns each caught TD passes from Blake Bortles.

Cleveland at Miami: Rookie Cody Kessler, who started for years at USC, will lead the Browns in place of Josh McCown (shoulder), becoming the third different player to open as Cleveland’s quarterback in as many weeks. The Dolphins have come up just short in losses in Seattle and New England and were encouraged by Sunday’s rally from a 31-3 deficit against the Patriots as QB Ryan Tannehill found his rhythm. Despite its 0-2 mark, Miami is about a double-digit favorite as it opens its home schedule but probably won't have top RB Arian Foster (groin), which means fumble-prone Jay Ajayi and rookie Kenyan Drake would have to carry the ground game as the Dolphins make their regular-season debut at the newly renamed and renovated Hard Rock Stadium.

Washington at N.Y. Giants: Despite puzzling playcalling in the red zone, New York survived in an unexpectedly low-scoring game against New Orleans and can go up three games on the ‘Skins in the NFC East by taking care of business here. Victor Cruz made another clutch catch to set up the win, but all eyes here will be on Odell Beckham Jr. as he matches up with Josh Norman for the first time after last season’s memorable fight-filled duel when the corner was a member of the Panthers. Washington won last season’s final encounter 20-14 to snap a five-game losing streak at the hands of their division rival, but it has only beaten the Giants once at Met Life Stadium in the past eight meetings (2011).

Detroit at Green Bay: Although Aaron Rodgers’ two costly fourth-quarter turnovers prevented the Packers from a win at NFC North rival Minnesota on Sunday night, he’s clearly more comfortable with Jordy Nelson back as his security blanket. The Packers will make their regular-season debut at Lambeau against a Lions squad that saw all the momentum from their Week 1 win over the Colts dashed by a late collapse at home against the Titans. Detroit snapped a 24-game losing streak in Green Bay that dated back to 1991 with an 18-16 win last season, but is reeling after losing RB Ameer Abdullah for the season due to a foot injury. He was averaging nearly 7 yards per touch through the first two games.

Minnesota at Carolina: Franchise RB Adrian Peterson tore his meniscus on Sunday night and has opted for surgery, which means the Vikings will likely be without him the rest of the season. Sam Bradford connected with Stefon Diggs the way predecessor Teddy Bridgewater was starting to, helping balance out the offense, so they should be able to move the ball even without Peterson if that continues. Minnesota’s defense looks fierce enough to give Cam Newton fits in what looks like perhaps the top matchup in the entire league this week. Including the last two postseasons, the Panthers have won 14 consecutive home games.

San Francisco at Seattle: It's obvious that Russell Wilson is operating at less than 75 percent due to an ankle injury suffered in Week 1 and the offense has struggled immensely as a result, producing a single touchdown and 15 total points through the first two weeks. The 49ers have been able to put points on the board behind Blaine Gabbert, so this game could get very interesting if the Seahawks continue to sputter. Top receiver Doug Baldwin (knee) and starting RB Thomas Rawls (leg) are both dealing with pain, so even if they play, the Seahawks appear limited given Wilson’s issues and the struggles of their offensive line. San Francisco is 1-7 against the Seahawks over the past few years, last winning at home in Dec. 2013. The Niners haven’t won in Seattle since 2011, losing five straight by a combined margin of 140-53.

Los Angeles at Tampa Bay: The Rams have only scored nine points in two games, but arrive in Florida 1-1 after taking down the Seahawks. Case Keenum will look to lead the offense to their first touchdown against a Bucs defense that got carved up in Arizona, but any chance of another upset hinges on turning over Jameis Winston, who went from being Week 1’s highest-rated QB to one of Week 2’s worst. Top RB Doug Martin (hamstring) won’t play, which will thrust Charles Sims into a starting role, backed by Jacquizz Rodgers. One of these teams will be a surprising 2-1 and tied for the lead in their division after this is in the books.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Keystone State’s NFL reps square off in the final game before Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell returns from suspension, so Pittsburgh hopes to get to its bye week unbeaten by continuing to ride DeAngelo Williams, who topped 10,000 career yards and is making the most of increased opportunities. The Eagles will be playing on a short week after defeating Chicago on Monday night, so you can understand why the surprising Carson Wentz and his teammates are a home underdog despite the rookie’s unexpected success. Philadelphia is 47-28-3 against the Steelers, but have lost two of the last three meetings over the past 12 years, including the most recent one (16-14) in 2012. The last three games in the series have gone well under the posted total.

N.Y. Jets at Kansas City: Neither of these teams are likely to win their division, but both veteran squads expect to make the playoffs. That makes this showdown pivotal as one we’ll likely look back upon as a potential tiebreaker in the AFC playoff race. The Chiefs are expected to get Jamaal Charles back from his knee injury for his 2016 debut, while Jets WR Brandon Marshall survived his own knee scare last Thursday night and is listed as ‘probable’ here. Eric Decker (shoulder) and Quincy Enunwa (ribs) should also play as they try and pick up where they left off in combining for 317 yards on 18 receptions in a Thursday night win over Buffalo.

San Diego at Indianapolis: The Chargers have lost key offensive players to torn ACLs in each of the first two weeks, watching RB Danny Woodhead suffer the same fate that befell WR Keenan Allen in the season opener. The 0-2 Colts have seen their secondary decimated by injuries and are struggling with keeping Andrew Luck clean and giving him time to throw. Indy opened last year with consecutive losses before Luck led a wild 35-33 comeback win in Tennessee to avoid its first 0-3 start since 2011. The Colts shuffled their offensive line in that game and got clutch catches from Philip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief, receivers being counted on to continue making progress this season. We’ll see if history repeats itself, though Moncrief may miss time with a shoulder injury and is ‘questionable’.

Chicago at Dallas: The Bears will be back in prime time, looking to prevent Dak Prescott and the Cowboys from a second straight win. Rookie Ezekiel Elliott has excelled in leading the Dallas ground game and keeping pressure off Tony Romo’s replacement, so all eyes will be on him to continue his strong start. Since the Monday night game featured so much attrition among the defense and also saw QB Jay Cutler (thumb) injured, the Bears are going to need an inspired effort from a depleted group to avoid an 0-3 start for the second straight year under John Fox.

Monday, Sept. 26

Atlanta at New Orleans: This NFC South clash means everything to the Saints. Either they pull off a victory that renews hope in the Crescent City and rejuvenates the belief that having Drew Brees under center is like having a chip and chair or despair sets in early. The alternative, very simply, would feature finger-pointing. New Orleans would come out of Monday night 0-3, winless in two home games and very unhappy since blame could be laid anywhere. Sean Payton’s defense let it down in the season-opening loss to Oakland, while his offense managed a single touchdown in New York last Sunday. The Falcons are on the road for a second consecutive week and swept both games in this situation last season, winning in Weeks 2 and 3 at New York and Dallas en route to a 5-0 start. New Orleans swept the 2015 meetings.

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NFL BEST BETS:

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 40-51-3 43.96% -8050

O/U Picks 42-47-4 47.19% -4850


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

HOU at NE 08:25 PM

NE -1.0

U 39.5

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Brissett, defense key 27-0 Patriots win
September 22, 2016

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) Maybe Texans safety Andre Hal thought Jacoby Brissett would run out of bounds at the 5 in the first quarter of his first NFL start.

After all, with Tom Brady suspended and Jimmy Garoppolo injured, the Patriots didn't have any other quarterbacks on the roster to call upon if the 23-year-old rookie got hurt.

But Brissett, who broke free around the right side on a first-and-15 from the Houston 27, went untouched to the 5 before Hal appeared to have him cornered. Heading for the sideline, Brissett stutter-stepped and let the defender cut in front of him, then slipped through his grasp before diving for the end zone .

As his teammates rushed to celebrate with him, the stadium public address blasted out The Doors: ''Hello, I love you, won't you tell me your name.''

Brissett went on to complete 11 of 19 passes for 103 yards, and ran for 48 yards on eight carries for the Patriots on Thursday night as they took advantage of three Houston turnovers to beat the Texans 27-0. The 27-yard touchdown run was the longest for a Patriots quarterback since 1976.

New England improved to 3-0 without Brady, who has one game remaining on his ''Deflategate'' suspension.

It was quite an introduction for Brissett, who came on in relief of Garoppolo against Miami on Sunday and four days later became the first rookie quarterback to start for the Patriots since Drew Bledsoe in 1993 - and the first black player to start at QB in franchise history .

It was 15 years minus one day after Bledsoe was knocked out of the game on a hit by Jets linebacker Mo Lewis.

Brady led the Patriots to the Super Bowl title that year - and three more - relinquishing the job only in 2008, when he was injured, and again this year when NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell benched him four games for his role in a scheme to use improperly inflated footballs in the 2015 AFC title game.

Bledsoe, who had been the No. 1 overall pick in the 1993 NFL draft, was the last rookie to start a game at quarterback for the Patriots before Brissett took the field on Thursday night, leading the team out of the tunnel before the game and then to a victory during it.

Brissett made his NFL debut in relief of Garoppolo, who was slammed to the turf by Dolphins linebacker Kiko Alonso on Sunday, a 31-24 Patriots victory. Brissett completed 6 of 9 passes for 92 yards against Miami but it wasn't clear he would get the start until Garoppolo was on the inactive list when it was released 90 minutes before kickoff.

Coach Bill Belichick decided not to bring in a free agent quarterback to fill out the depth chart , leaving only receiver Julian Edelman, who played QB at Kent State, if something happened to Brissett.

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Best Bets - Week 3
September 22, 2016


Two weeks into the 2016 NFL season and it's been a pair of 1-1 ATS weeks for this feature. Last week it was the Arizona Cardinals and their thorough rebound in soundly beating Tampa that got us to the window, but a three-point win by the Giants wasn't enough to cover the spread. 50% isn't going to cut it in this business so it's time to start stringing together a couple of perfect weeks in a row, starting with these Week 3 best bets.

Best Bet #1: Carolina -7

Carolina rebounded in a big way last week after losing to Denver in Week 1 and their road to redemption should continue this week. They host a Minnesota team that has had nothing but bad luck on the injury front so far and should be able to take control of this game early on and go from there.


Minnesota may be 2-0 SU and ATS, but this is going to be their toughest test to date and they just don't have the weapons to keep up with the Panthers this week. They rank 28th in the league in offense with just 292.5 yards per game and only have two offensive TD's all year. It's still early in 2016, but averaging one offensive TD per game isn't going to get it done against a quality foe like Carolina and Vikings fans will likely be in for a rude awakening here.

Meanwhile, Carolina is on a 20-7-1 ATS run at home and have a 9-2 ATS run going after gaining 350+ yards in their last contest. Cam Newton and company completely dismantled the 49ers defense a week ago, and while Minnesota's defensive unit will be tougher, Carolina will find ways to consistently move the ball this week. Getting to 24 could likely be the magic number for the Panthers here as it's going to be tough for the Vikings to get 14+ points with the weapons they've got and Carolina's defense out there. We should see the Panthers reach that number in Week 3 and cash another ticket for bettors.

Best Bet #2: Tampa Bay -5.5

Speaking of offensively challenged teams like Minnesota, the Vikings two offensive TD's this year looks spectacular when you compare it with the Rams. Los Angeles has yet to score a touchdown of any kind through two games and while that will likely change this week against Tampa, the Rams won't score enough to keep up with Tampa in this spot.

The Bucs are looking to rebound after getting dismantled by Arizona last week and this is a perfect spot for them to do so. They are hosting a Rams team that's got to travel all the way across the country to play in a hot and muggy environment without a touchdown scored on the season. The perception of Tampa has changed a bit after the beating they took last week, but this is still a team on the rise and they'll show it this week.

Tampa is 7-1 ATS after allowing 30+ points last time out and have a 5-1 ATS run going after scoring less than 15 points. They are also 10-4 ATS after failing to cover a spread and know how important a win this week would be for their goal of making the playoffs this year. These are the types of games and types of scheduling spots that a young team like Tampa has to take advantage of if they want to become a yearly contender in this league.

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Week 3 Underdogs
September 21, 2016


Week 2 saw plenty of the “sizeable underdogs” featured in this piece gets wins against the spread, but only Tennessee, Los Angeles, and Atlanta win outright.

The ML prices of +200, +240, and +180 respectively brought in a nice payday for bettors who weren't scared to bypass the points and take those three teams outright, but of the nine teams listed in last week's feature, nearly all of them but Tampa Bay were in their respective games until the end.

The Colts and 49ers gave up late scores to fall short ATS, but the fact that eight of the nine teams getting +4 or better last week were hovering around their point spread for the majority of the contest goest ot show you just how hard handicapping the NFL can be.

This week we've got another nine NFL underdogs fitting the +4 or greater description, so it's time to run through which one of them has got the best chance to win outright.

Sportsbook.ag Week 3 Underdogs that Qualify

Buffalo Bills (+4.5); ML (+177)

Cleveland Browns (+10); ML (+400)

Washington Redskins (+4.5); ML (+170)

Detroit Lions (+7.5); ML (+300)

Minnesota Vikings (+7); ML (+260)

San Francisco 49ers (+9); ML (+330)

LA Rams (+5); ML (+190)

Philadelphia Eagles (+4); ML (+160)

Chicago Bears (+7); ML (+300)

There are a lot of ugly teams on that list and at first glance it's tough to see any of them pulling off the outright upset this week. For instance, Cleveland's in Miami and looking like a team that could challenge an 0-16 SU season this year, and Detroit's in Green Bay against a Packers team looking to rebound off one divisional loss already. San Fran is another divisional road underdog in Seattle, and while the Seahawks haven't looked good at all so far, it's likely only a matter of time before they turn this thing around and beating up on the hated 49ers may be exactly what they need.

Minnesota's a huge question mark with the injured roster they are trotting out there in Carolina on Sunday, and the Bears are forced to turn to journeyman QB Brian Hoyer in Dallas on SNF. That's a big chunk of that list already written off in terms of putting down a confident ML wager this week. The rest of that list leaves Buffalo (+177), Washington (+170), LA (+190), and Philadelphia (+160).

Buffalo and Washington appear to have their own internal issues surfacing as there have been reports of a locker room divide in Washington and the Rex Ryan era in Buffalo may be over very shortly. Of the two, it's likely that Buffalo is the more desperate team this week given the division they are in and how hot the seat is that Ryan is currently occupying. Yet, with Arizona in town and New England on deck, the immediate future looks pretty bleak for the Bills right now and it's tough justifying a ML wager on them here.

The Rams have a tough scheduling spot themselves this week as they fly cross-country to Tampa to face an 1-1 Buccaneers team that got their butts handed to them last week. And while LA's defense has proved to be very formidable so far this year (3 total points allowed), it's very easy to see the Bucs take advantage of this tough spot LA is in and decide that game relatively early.

Philly hosts the Steelers in a in-state rivalry game that will be tough for the Eagles to pull off. Yes, they are they are 2-0 SU so far, but wins over the Browns and Bears don't exactly appear to be great wins in terms of competition level. Facing the Steelers will be a big step up in talent level for the Eagles and +160 just isn't enough to justify a wager there.

This underdog ML betting option board looks rather ugly in all, but the best option here has to be Washington. The Redskins are in an 0-2 SU hole and while there may be some locker room tension right now, a win would do wonders in removing that divide. It's a big rivalry game with the Giants and although much of the attention will be on the Norman/Beckham matchup on the outside, if Washington's offense can move the ball consistently against New York, they'll definitely have a chance to steal one on the road.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL BEST BETS:

THURSDAY RESULTS: 2 - 0

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 41-51-3 44.57% -7550

O/U Picks 43-47-4 47.78% -4350

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Vegas Money Moves - Week 3
September 23, 2016


For the second time in three weeks, the betting public was all over the a team favored over the Patriots and for the second time, New England made a resounding statement to never against them when their underdogs. Thursday night's 27-0 win over Houston led Las Vegas sports books to a winning day and didn't leave much carry over risk heading into Sunday's Week 3 action.

"It was a real good day with the Patriots for us," said South Point book director Chris Andrews. "It was made even better with Clemson covering (-10) at Georgia Tech. There was a little bit of wise guy play on Clemson, but the public was on the dog."

Just for future reference, whenever seeing the Patriots as an underdog, know that they have now covered eight of their last nine in that situation. And on the rare occasion when seeing the public collectively jump in on a 10-point underdog, it's a good sign to lay the favorite.

Andrews has been booking games in Nevada for the past 37 years and is in his first football season running the South Point book. He gave me a few minutes Friday afternoon to review what type of risk he's looking at for Sunday's games.

"We opened the Bengals -3.5 and with Andy Dalton being banged up we got some sharp money taking the Broncos, but it evened out with Bengals play when we went to -3," said Andrews, who has it mandated from owner Michael Guaghan to always use flat numbers. They're the only book in Las Vegas town that uses that policy. They hit their threshold soon after and moved back to -3.5. Stations and Coast are at -3 (-120). The total moved from 41 to 41.5 on Friday.

Tennessee hasn't moved all week from being a 1-point home favorite over Oakland -- a few books have them -1.5. The total is sitting at 47 where it opened, with a brief stint at 46.5. The Raiders defense has given up an average of 517 yards per game between a thrilling win at New Orleans and last weeks home loss to Atlanta.

Buffalo is 0-2 with Rex Ryan on the hot seat already, but they have some supporters in Las Vegas as the Cardinals visit. "Wise guys are on Buffalo which moved us from +4.5 to +4, but the public is all over the Cards," said Andrews. The total has dropped from 47 to 46.5.

It's rare that the sharp and public money are both on the same side, but Andrews says that's what's happening with Baltimore in its game at Jacksonville. The South Point has the Ravens -1 and the total has dropped from 47.5 to 47.

Miami is a 9.5-point home favorite over Cleveland, who will be starting rookie Cody Kessler. "We've had decent two-way action on the game," said Andrews, who hasn't moved the number. The total went up from 41.5 to 42 on Wednesday.

The Giants opened as 5-point home favorites against the Redskins and were bet down from the dead number to -4.5 on Wednesday and a couple of large Redskins wagers came in on Friday pushing the number down to -4 and -3.5. Wynn, Caesars and the Golden Nugget all moved to -3.5 on Friday as well. The total has moved up from 46.5 to 46. The Redskins halted a Giants five game win and cover streak with a 20-14 home win in the last meeting in November.

"We took a real big play on Detroit at +8 on Monday," said Andrews, who moved the road dog from +7.5 to +7 on Thursday. "But we're loaded again on the Packers with all the public parlay play." The Lions have won three of the past five meetings, including their first win at Green Bay since 1991 last season. The total is sitting steady at 48 with a low of 47 sitting at Wynn.

Within an hour of opening Carolina as 7.5-point home favorites over Minnesota on Monday, Vikings money was quickly dropped down at the South Point book and they've been at -7 since. The total hasn't moved off 43. The Vikings have covered their last eight road games. Their last road fail was a Monday night Week 1 loss at San Francisco last season.

San Francisco is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Seattle, but after the Seahawks looked very sluggish in their first two games, the public isn't so keen laying double-digits with them at home, and they love the Seahawks almost every week in their parlays. The first large wager Andrews took on the game was Tuesday on the 49ers at +10 pushing it to 9.5 where it's stayed the rest of the week. The total has jumped up from 40.5 to 41.5 despite Seattle's average score between games against Miami and Los Angeles being a paltry 7.5-to-7.5.

"The biggest bet game of the week is Pittsburgh at Phialdelphia, "said Andrews. "We're sitting even on the game, very balanced, which is kind of surprising because the Steelers are a very public team and have covered both their games. The people like what Carson Wentz is doing so far. They believe in him." The Eagles have covered both their games as well and the game has been sitting Pittsburgh as 3.5-point road favorites all week. The total was bumped up from 46 to 47 on Friday.

"We've had big action on the Jets all week," said Andrews. "I didn't want, but we finally had to go to Chiefs -2.5 on Friday." Andrews opened the Chiefs as 3.5-point home favorites on Monday and got peppered with Jets money multiple times since Tuesday at +3 before reluctantly moving, It's a bookmakers worst nightmare to cross over 3 and have the favored team win by 3 -- lose on the dog money at +3.5, refund +3 and lose on -2.5. There is no other -2.5 in town with every other book at -3 (EV). The total has dropped from 43.5 to 42.5.

"The wise guys took +3 with the Chargers, but the public is on the Colts," Andrews said. The Colts opened as 3-point home favorites over the Chargers and within 40 minutes they moved to -2.5 and on Friday they went to -2. Stations is the only book holding tight at -3 (EV). The total is if 51.5 to 52 throughout town.

After the Jay Cutler injury, the South Point opened Dallas as 7.5-point home favorites over Chicago, and they got Bears money within two hours to push them to -7. Brian Hoyer will start for Cutler. The total has gone from 45 to 44.5.

On Monday night, New Orleans is a 3-point home favorite against Atlanta in a match-up between two of the four worst defenses in the league. So it's understandable that the total is set at 53.5, where the Saints have gone 6-0-1 to the Over in their last seven home games. "This might be the lowest handled Monday Night Football game in its history," Andrews joked. "We don't have anything on it."

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 3
September 24, 2016


Another solid back-and-forth week in the totals market as bettors watched the ‘over’ go 8-7-1 with the lone push coming on Monday and that outcome between the Eagles and Bears was helped with 27 unanswered points in the final 30 minutes.

Second-half scoring surges were a common theme last weekend and bettors playing the ‘under’ in a few late games caught some tough breaks in the below games.

Colts-Broncos: 35 points in second-half, two defensive scores by Denver in fourth
Falcons-Raiders: 39 second-half points
Jaguars-Chargers: 31 points with Jacksonville adding meaningless score with 1:03 remaining

Through two weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 16-15-1 through 32 games.

Quick Observations

It’s rare to see totals listed below 40 points in the NFL these days but the first one of the season saw the ‘under’ (38) connect easily as the Rams beat the Seahawks 9-3.

After seeing the two highest totals go ‘over’ in Week 1, bettors watched the highest numbers in Week 2 go ‘under’ the number. (Saints-Giants 54, Buccaneers-Cardinals 49).

Five teams (Buccaneers, Redskins, Jaguars, Raiders, Colts) in the NFL are allowing 30-plus points per game through two weeks and four of them are allowing 395 total yards of defense. The one outlier is Jacksonville (325 YPG) and it’s actually outgained its first two opponents but turnovers (4/1) have been killers.

The Chargers are averaging 21 points in the first half this season, which is the best in the league. The Raiders lead the league with 23 PPG in the second-half. For those interested, Cleveland has only scored three points in the second-half this season and Baltimore hasn’t allowed a point in the final 30 minutes of each of their first two games.

Cody Kessler will be the fourth rookie quarterback to start a game this season when he suits up for Cleveland against Miami. Bettors could be hesitant to back the young guns but Carson Wentz (29 PPG) and Dak Prescott (23 PPG) have been decent and the Patriots just scored 27 on Thursday with Jacoby Brissett under center.

Non-Conference Action

Through two weeks of the season, we’ve seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 in 12 non-conference games and this week’s card has two matchups on tap. I dug up some numbers on this week’s games and there are some strong scoring tendencies for both visitors.

Arizona at Buffalo: This will be the first road game of the season for the Cardinals and bettors saw the club go 6-3 to the high side last season when away. Digging deeper into Arizona, we found out that the team is averaging 26.4 PPG on the road in non-divisional games since head coach Bruce Arians took over. The Buffalo defense (400 YPG) hasn’t looked sharp this season and followers of this column are aware that this matchup fits the “Thursday Night Total” system since the Bills played the midweek game in Week 2. The Bills offense will have a new coordinator in Anthony Lynn running the show this Sunday.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia: The Steelers have seen the ‘over’ go 11-3 in their last 14 games versus the NFC and they’re averaging 29.7 PPG during this span, which includes their 38-16 win at Washington in Week 1. The Eagles defense (286 YPG, 12 PPG) has started off very strong but facing Big Ben is a huge step up in class from RG3 and Jay Cutler.

Divisional Battles

Washington at N.Y. Giants: Tale of two different tapes for this matchup with the Redskins 2-0 to the ‘over’ while the Giants have seen the ‘under’ connect in their first two games. New York’s defense (16 PPG, 308 YPG) has looked much better early in the season while Washington’s unit (408.5 YPG, 32.5 PPG) continues to look suspect. QB Kirk Cousins has struggled in his career (1-3) versus the Giants with 8 interceptions (3 TDs) and this appears to be a better New York defense. The ‘under’ is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Detroit at Green Bay: Three of the last six meetings in this series have seen exactly 50 points scored, while the pair combined for 31, 26 and 34 points in the other three contests. Those outcomes have produced a 3-3 total mark during this span. You might be surprised but Detroit’s offense (411.5 YPG) is much better than Green Bay (287 YPG) thus far and even though the Lions put up 15 points last week, three touchdowns were called back on penalties.

San Francisco at Seattle: This is the lowest total (40 ½) on the board and it could be hard making a case for the ‘over’ based on what we’ve seen from Seattle. The Seahawks defense (9.5 PPG) is miles ahead of their offense (7.5 PPG) and the health of QB Russell Wilson remains a concern behind an average offensive line. Surprisingly, the 49ers are averaging 27.5 PPG after two games but that number was helped with plenty of short tracks due to turnovers. The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and San Francisco has scored a total of 26 points in the last four encounters.

Under the Lights

Including Thursday’s easy ‘under’ winner between the Patriots and Texans, I’m guessing the bookmakers are happy with the primetime results this season. We’ve seen one unexpected shootout, a few low-scoring affairs and some great middle opportunities for savvy players. Headed into this weekend, the ‘under’ holds a slight 4-3-1 edge.

Chicago at Dallas: Very tough total to handicap here due to the quarterback situation for both teams but the early money has pushed the odds from 45 ½ to 44. Brian Hoyer will get the start at QB for Chicago and while he’s not special, he’s capable. In 10 starts for the Texans last season, the team scored 20-plus in seven of those games. Dallas QB Dak Prescott hasn’t looked like a rookie but he’s been held back with the club trying to establish the run (60 carries) the first two weeks. Defensively, Chicago is better than advertised while the Cowboys “bend but don’t break” plan has worked, so far. These teams have played three times since 2012 and the ‘over’ has connected easily with combined scores of 52, 73 and 69 points posted.

Atlanta at New Orleans: These “indoor” teams always seem to warrant a high total when they get together based on public perception but bettors should be aware that the ‘under’ is on a 6-3-1 run in this series. Atlanta has seen the ‘over’ cash in its first two games behind an offense (451 YPG) that is clicking on all cylinders and it will be facing a New Orleans defense (452 YPG) that has looked atrocious. The Saints offense has always played better at home and the Falcons defense has surrendered 59 points in their first two games.

Fearless Predictions

Fair to say we never had a shot on either of my first two plays but the team total connected easily and the teaser was never in doubt. Despite dropping 10 cents ($10), the bankroll ($190) is still in the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Philadelphia 46 ½

Best Under: Minnesota-Carolina 42 ½

Best Team Total: Over 26 Indianapolis

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

Under 51 ½ Minnesota-Carolina

Over 38 Arizona-Buffalo

Over 44 ½ Atlanta-New Orleans

[StarDust Bum]

Pick Six - Week 3
September 23, 2016

Week 2 Record: 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS

Overall Record: 9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS

Review: The Falcons and Cowboys both won outright as road underdogs, while the Cardinals and Texans took care of business as home favorites. The two losses came by the Colts and Bengals on the highway, but we’ll take a winning week.

Broncos at Bengals (-3, 41) – 1:00 PM EST

Denver
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 15/1

The post-Peyton Manning era in Denver hasn’t been a disappointment, as the Broncos have picked up home victories over the Panthers and Colts. Denver’s defense stepped up with a pair of second-half defensive touchdowns in a 34-20 triumph over Indianapolis last week as six-point favorites. Last season, the Broncos covered in all six opportunities as an underdog, while cashing in Week 1’s comeback win against Carolina as a slight ‘dog. Denver held off Cincinnati at home last December, 20-17, but failed to cash as 3 ½-point favorites.

Cincinnati
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

The Bengals play their home opener on Sunday after dropping a 24-16 decision to the team that eliminated them from the playoffs last season, the Steelers. Cincinnati has been outgained on the ground in both games, while picking up only 46 rushing yards on 18 carries against Pittsburgh. The Bengals own an 11-4-1 record in their past 16 regular season home contests with three of those losses coming to division foes. Cincinnati has won and covered five consecutive September home games since 2013, including three victories by double-digits.

Best Bet: Cincinnati -3

Redskins at Giants (-4 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Washington
Record: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 150/1

The Redskins captured the NFC East championship last season at 9-7, but Washington has stumbled to an 0-2 start following home losses to Pittsburgh and Dallas. The Cowboys and Redskins went back and forth before Dallas scored a touchdown with five minutes left to grab a 27-23 victory at FedEx Field. Kirk Cousins threw for 364 yards in the defeat for Washington, but the ‘Skins fell to 1-4 in their last five home contests. Washington wrapped up the 2015 season with three consecutive road victories, all in the underdog role. However, the Redskins have lost four straight meetings at Met Life Stadium, including three in a row by double-digits at New York.

New York
Record: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 20/1

The Giants have squeezed by in both of their victories over the Cowboys and Saints, winning the two games by a combined four points. New York’s offense failed to reach the end zone in last Sunday’s 16-13 triumph over New Orleans, as the Giants relied on its special teams for three field goals and a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. New York’s defense has given up only two touchdowns through two games resulting in a pair of UNDERS, as the Giants closed out last season with four consecutive OVERS. However, New York has gone OVER the total in five of the previous six home divisional contests since 2014.

Best Bet: Washington +4 ½

Lions at Packers (-7 ½, 48) – 1:00 PM EST

Detroit
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 85/1

The Lions melted down late in last Sunday’s 16-15 home setback to the Titans, blowing a 15-3 fourth quarter lead. Detroit cashed as an underdog in Week 1 at Indianapolis, but couldn’t take home the money as six-point favorites against Tennessee, dropping to 2-7 the last nine years in Week 2. The Lions snapped a 23-game losing streak at Green Bay in last season’s 18-16 triumph as 10-point underdogs, while losing the second matchup with the Packers on Aaron Rodgers’ Hail Mary touchdown in the final seconds at Ford Field, 27-23.

Green Bay
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1

The Packers held off the Jaguars in Week 1, but were tripped up by the Vikings in Week 2 in a 17-14 defeat as short favorites. Green Bay’s offense was held to 263 yards in last Sunday’s loss, as the Packers have yet to bust the 300-yard mark in two games. Under Mike McCarthy, Green Bay owns an 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS record in home openers, while scoring at least 27 points in five of their last six openers at Lambeau Field. In 2014, the Packers won and covered all three home divisional games, winning by an average of nearly four touchdowns. Last season, Green Bay lost all three NFC North contests at home, while scoring 16 points or fewer in all three defeats.

Best Bet: Detroit +7 ½

Vikings at Panthers (-7, 43) – 1:00 PM EST

Minnesota
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 2-0 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 18/1

The Vikings lost their starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in training camp to a season-ending knee injury. It got worse for Minnesota when star running back Adrian Peterson suffered a knee injury that will sideline the former rushing champion for a majority, if not the rest of the season. The Vikings found a way to knock off the Packers, 17-14 as short home underdogs, as Sam Bradford performed well in his Minnesota debut by throwing for 286 yards and two touchdowns. Minnesota owns an 11-3 ATS record as a road underdog under Mike Zimmer, but two of those losses came as a ‘dog of a touchdown or higher.

Carolina
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Panthers rebounded from their late meltdown in a Week 1 defeat at Denver as Carolina blasted San Francisco, 46-27 as 12-point home favorites in Week 2. Cam Newton torched the 49ers for 353 yards and four touchdowns as Carolina extended its winning streak at Bank of America Stadium to 14 games. The Panthers have covered nine of their past 11 home contests, including a 3-1 ATS mark in this stretch as a favorite of seven points or more. Carolina is hosting Minnesota for the first time since 2011, while the Panthers look to avenge a 31-13 road drubbing to the Vikings in 2014.

Best Bet: Carolina -7

Steelers (-3 ½, 46) at Eagles – 4:25 PM EST

Pittsburgh
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1

Both Keystone State teams have jumped out to 2-0 starts, as the Steelers has held their first two opponents to a total of two touchdowns. Pittsburgh dominated Washington in the opener, followed by a 24-16 home triumph over Cincinnati to improve to 2-0 for the first time since 2010. The Steelers have owned the NFC recently by winning six of the past seven interconference games since 2013, including three consecutive victories in the favorite role. Dating back to the start of 2015, Pittsburgh has cashed the UNDER in nine of 11 road games, while allowing 20 points or less in four straight as an away favorite.

Philadelphia
Record: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Eagles are more of a 2-0 surprise than their Pennsylvania counterparts, as rookie Carson Wentz has led Philadelphia to victories over Cleveland and Chicago. Granted, both the Browns and Bears have combined to start 0-4, but Wentz has yet to throw an interception, while the Eagles’ defense has allowed 24 points. With the departure of Chip Kelly and hiring of Doug Pederson, Philadelphia isn’t playing uptempo football this season after closing out last season on a 7-2 run to the OVER. The Eagles have limped to a 4-7 record in the past 11 games at Lincoln Financial Field, as two of those wins are over Cleveland and Buffalo.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh -3 ½

Jets at Chiefs (-3, 43) – 4:25 PM EST

New York
Record: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

The Jets’ offense was flying high in last Thursday 37-31 victory at Buffalo, racking up nearly 500 yards of offense, including 374 yards through the air from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Matt Forte continued to run the ball well in his second game with the Jets, finding the end zone three times, while both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall eclipsed the 100-yard mark receiving. The Jets own a 2-0-1 ATS mark as a road underdog under Todd Bowles, while New York hasn’t won consecutive away games since 2010.

Kansas City
Record: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 35/1

The Chiefs overcame a 21-point deficit in their Week 1 overtime triumph over the Chargers, but Kansas City failed to reach the end zone in last Sunday’s 19-12 setback at Houston. That loss snapped an 11-game regular season winning streak for Kansas City, but the Chiefs will carry a six-game hot streak at Arrowhead Stadium going into Sunday. The Chiefs have failed to cover four consecutive home games since last December, but in all four of those contests, Kansas City was listed as a 6 ½-point favorite or higher.

Best Bet: Kansas City -3

[StarDust Bum]

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
September 24, 2016


NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Bills are 12-0 ATS since Dec 24, 2011 at home after a loss where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-11-1 ATS since Nov 17, 2002 at home as a favorite when they had no more than 15 first downs last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Steelers are 0-9-1 OU since Jan 01, 2012 on the road when facing a team Antonio Brown had at least 75 yards against last meeting.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Chiefs are 0-11 OU since Dec 13, 2009 at home after they had less than 28 minutes time of possession last game.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Bears are 10-0 OU since Dec 25, 2011 off a game as a favorite where they had less than 300 total yards.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Packers are 15-0 OU as a favorite of more than six points vs a team with the same record.

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 3
September 24, 2016

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,854 entries, which is an all-time record.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 | Week 2

Week 3

1) Pittsburgh -3.5 (663)
2) Arizona -4 (536)
3) Tampa Bay -5.5 (502)
4) Jacksonville PK (477)
5) San Diego +3 (418)


SUPERCONTEST WEEK 3 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Houston (-1) 150 New England (+1) 126
Denver (+3.5) 391 Cincinnati (-3.5) 322
Oakland (+1.5) 363 Tennessee (-1.5) 281
Arizona (-4) 536 Buffalo (+4) 281
Baltimore (PK) 219 Jacksonville (PK) 477
Cleveland (+9.5) 84 Miami (-9.5) 395
Washington (+4.5) 383 N.Y. Giants (-4.5) 189
Detroit (+7.5) 377 Green Bay (-7.5) 146
Minnesota (+7) 263 Carolina (-7) 269
San Francisco (+9.5) 251 Seattle (-9.5) 161
Los Angeles (+5.5) 145 Tampa Bay (-5.5) 502
Pittsburgh (-3.5) 663 Philadelphia (+3.5) 203
N.Y. Jets (+3) 319 Kansas City (-3) 212
San Diego (+3) 418 Indianapolis (-3) 227
Chicago (+7.5) 294 Dallas (-7.5) 182
Atlanta (+3) 107 New Orleans (-3) 329

WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 0-5 3-7 30%

[StarDust Bum]

SNF - Bears at Cowboys
September 24, 2016

How 'bout them Cowboys!

After an emotional come from behind win at Washington last week led by rookie back-up quarterback Dak Prescott, there's plenty of optimism that things will be just fine in Dallas until Tony Romo's broken back heals. However, optimism doesn't seem to be the word to describe their opponents story as the Bears visit AT&T Stadium in Week 3 for Sunday Night Football.

Not only has Chicago started an ugly 0-2 -- no covers, either -- but they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to a thumb injury in a Monday night home loss to Philadelphia. Journeyman QB Brian Hoyer, in his eighth season out of Michigan State, will get the starting assignment. The Bears also have several other players listed as 'questionable' or 'out' for the game.

The Cowboys, with it's massive offensive line and a young QB full of confidence, appear to be in store for another win. But what really matters to most of us is whether or not they can win by seven points or more.

LINE MOVEMENT

CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas set the Cowboys as six-point favorites in April when releasing all numbers on every game for the first 16 weeks. That was when both Romo and Cutler were expected to start. On Sunday night they set the number at Cowboys -4 when it was Prescott vs Cutler. On Monday, prior to the MNF game, the Cowboys were bet up to -5.5. After the loss to Philly, and losing Cutler, the number was re-posted at -7.5 (EVEN). Bears money has pushed them down during the week to -7 (EVEN). Five other books around town have -6.5 posted. The total has dropped from 45 down to 44.5.

WHO WILL THE BOOKS NEED?

Despite some respected money playing the Bears, this is going to be a one-sided bet game and a game that will help make of break the books' day. After parlay risk piles up from the first 13 games on Sunday, the risk on Dallas is going going to multiply drastically. That will put the books in a situation needing to even things out by moving the number which means if liking Dallas, you should probably lay -6.5 as soon as possible. If you're looking for action on the Bears, wait closer to kick-off and see if you get +7.5.

LAST WEEK

The Bears were 3-point home favorites over the Eagles and lost 29-14 with the help of losing the turnover battle 3-0. The Eagles held on to the ball for 36 minutes. The total barely went 'over' (42) the closing number.

The Cowboys showed some grit in their 27-21 come from behind win at Washington where the Redskins were 3.5-point favorites. Sharp moved the Redskins. The public loved the Cowboys. Prescott showed his outstanding preaseason wasn't a fluke as he completed 22-of-30 passes for 292 yards. One week after catching only one pass for eight yards against the Giants, Dez Bryant caught seven for 102 yards. Bettors loved the 'over' and got there with a number that ran from 44.5 to 47.

RECENT MEETINGS

Dallas won the last meeting, 41-28, as a four-point road underdog in 2014 which halted a four game Bears win and cover streak in the series. The past five meetings have gone 'over' the total between the pair.

TRENDS

-- Dallas is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 home games.
-- Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a win.
-- Dallas has stayed 'under' in five of its last seven games.

-- Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games.
-- Chicago is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games.
-- Chicago has gone Over total in 22 of its last 32 road games.

HOYER NOT A HUGE DROP OFF

Last week the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted the Cowboys -3.5 in their early Week 3 numbers. On Tuesday they re-adjusted to -7.5 after the MNF home loss. Is Cutler really 4-points better than Hoyer? The answer is no. They're actually close to being even, despite the large salary disparity. Beyond 2015 stats that were similar -- Howyer had 19 TDs and seven picks, Cutler had 21 TDs and 11 picks -- Hoyer led the Texans to the playoffs by winning four of his last six regular season starts. Cutler has led the Bears to the playoffs only once (2010) in his seven years and the the Bears have finished dead last in the NFC North the last two seasons. Hoyer can't come close to matching Cutler's physical attributes, but he's better than Cutler in other areas. The actual reason for such a huge swing in the number is the Bears team rating being downgraded and multiple injuries on both sides of the ball. Let's call Cutler worth only 1.5-point over Hoyer.

INJURIES

In addition to Cutler's thumb keeping him out, the Bears have several other key personnel injured. WR Alshon Jeffrey (knee) didn't practice Thursday and is listed as 'questionable.' Starting safety Adrian Amos (concussion) is 'questionable' as is CB Kyle Fuller (knee) and DB Deon Bush (head). ILB Danny Trevathan (thumb), NT Eddie Goldman (ankle) and OLB Lamarr Houston (ACL) are ruled 'out' along with back-up RB Ka'Deem Carey (hamstring). That is one heck of a crowded MASH unit.

The Cowboys have a couple of starters banged up as well. DE Jack Crawford (shoulder), CB Orlando Scandrick (hamstring) and OT Doug Free (quadricep) are all listed as 'questionable.' Back-up OL Ronald Leary (groin) missed the last game and did back-up DE Charles Tapper (back) and both are 'questionable' as well.

FUTURES

The only team the Westgate has with higher Super Bowl odds than the Bears at 150/1 is Cleveland at 1,000/1. That's quite a boost after opening at 40/1 in February with only two weeks of play. But the Bears have earned it. They're also 75/1 to win the NFC.

There's a semblance of respect for the Cowboys who opened 14/1 to win the Super Bowl and are now 20/1. Part of the respected number has to do with risk as they've been one of the more popular bets over the summer. The other part is that the complexion of the NFC has changed with Seattle and Green Bay not looking so dominant and the NFC East looking very winnable. Also, Romo is scheduled to return at mid-season. Dallas is 10/1 to win their first NFC Championship since 1995.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 3

Without Adrian Peterson running the ball the Vikings will be passing even more heading into a Week 3 showdown with Carolina.

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 43)

Vikings’ pass reliance vs. Panthers’ struggling safeties

Two significant developments have turned the Minnesota offense completely upside-down. The loss of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a devastating leg injury prompted the Vikings to cough up a first-round pick for Sam Bradford. And who knows how the team will react after learning that running back Adrian Peterson is out for what could be several months with a torn meniscus.

The result should be a much more balanced passing attack than the one the Vikings used last season, when they threw on just over 51 percent of their offensive plays. They're already up to 57.6 percent through two games this season, and passed on 61.4 percent of their plays in Bradford's first game in a Vikings uniform last week. Look for that number to hold or even rise now that Peterson is on the shelf for a while.

They'll have their hands full in Carolina this weekend, but the Panthers' secondary hasn't been the same since saying goodbye to Josh Norman in the offseason. While the cornerbacks have been decent - particularly right-side specialist Bene Benwikere - the safety tandem of Kurt Coleman (41.9) and Tre Boston (54.9) have both posted failing grades to date, according to Pro Football Focus. Look for Bradford and his receiving corps to take advantage.

Daily fantasy watch: Stefon Diggs

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8, 48)

Lions' banged-up backfield vs. Packers' stifling run defense

The Vikings aren’t the only team dealing with running back issues. Division rival Detroit will be looking at a contingency plan for at least the next eight weeks after losing primary rusher Ameer Abdullah to a foot injury. And judging by how well the Packers have defended the run this season, don't expect Detroit to make any inroads on the ground this weekend.

Green Bay has limited opponents to just 78 yards on 48 carries through two games - an absurd 1.6 YPC average that is far and away the lowest in football. They've held foes to a long run of 12 yards while allowing only one touchdown. Tackles Mike Daniels (82.4) and Julius Peppers (78.3) have been outstanding, while defensive end Nick Perry (84.3) has been one of the best at his position. Clay Matthews (37.4) has struggled, but he should get much better.

The Lions' offensive line has impressed early on, but that won't matter with a backfield consisting of two players, Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington, who have just one game of 10-plus carries on their combined resume. Riddick isn't a good between-the-tackles runner, and Washington is simply too raw to be counted on for big things. Look for the Packers to obliterate the Lions' ground game, forcing Matthew Stafford to air it out early and often.

Daily fantasy watch: Marvin Jones

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1, 47.5)

Ravens' impressive O-line vs. Jaguars' not-so-improved D

Much of the focus in this one will be on the quarterbacks, with Ravens veteran Joe Flacco and his pass-heavy attack taking on Jaguars counterpart Blake Bortles and his high-octane offense. But when it comes to which signal caller will fare better, the line play appears to be slanted heavily in favor of visiting Baltimore. And that could very well decide things in a matchup that oddsmakers believe will be a tight one.

The Ravens' offensive line has been solid this season, led once again by elite right guard Marshal Yanda (87.6), who is actually grading slightly lower than he has the past two seasons. Tackles Ronnie Stanley (77.0) and Ricky Wagner (81.0) have also held their own, helping limit Flacco to four sacks over the first two games. The line is by no means perfect, but it has been good enough to help propel the team to a 2-0 start.

By comparison, the Jaguars' defensive front has been a disaster through two games, allowing a combined 65 points to the Packers and San Diego Chargers. Three of the team's four starters at guard or tackle are scoring lower than 49 on PFF, and even defensive tackle Malik Jackson (77.8) has seen his effectiveness wane compared to his previous two seasons. Look for Flacco to have a clean pocket, and for the Baltimore running backs to chew up good chunks of yardage.

Daily fantasy watch: Justin Forsett

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 40.5)

49ers' aversion to penalties vs. Seahawks' flag fiesta

The 49ers are looking to bounce back from last week's 46-27 thumping at the hands of the Carolina Panthers, and they'll be in tough despite Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson still working his way back to 100 percent from a high ankle sprain. But San Francisco has been one of the more disciplined teams in the NFL through two weeks, and that philosophy could lead to strong field position against a Seattle team that needs some work on its discipline.

Despite participating in a league-high 308 plays, the 49ers have had just eight accepted penalties (tied for 30th in the NFL) for 60 accepted yards (31st). Add in the one declined penalty they've incurred, and their nine total penalties ranks last in the league. The list includes three offensive holding calls (one declined), one face mask flag, two illegal contacts and just one false start. Through two games, San Francisco hasn't had a single pass interference call on either side of the ball.

By comparison, Seattle has incurred 18 penalties (fifth-most) for 183 accepted yards (third-most). The Seahawks were whistled for a whopping 10 penalties totaling 114 yards in their 9-3 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, with Kam Chancellor picking up a pass interference and face mask call and Jermaine Kearse nailed for a pair of offensive pass interference flags. This is nothing new for the Seahawks, who ranked seventh in penalties in 2015, first in 2014, first in 2013, fourth in 2012, second in 2011. A similar lack of discipline Sunday could mean big field position gains for the 49ers, which might translate to points.

Daily fantasy watch: Torrey Smith