Trends favor Broncos in Week 1
September 5, 2016
The 2016 NFL regular season kicks off Thursday as Denver meets Carolina from Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
The Broncos defeated the Panthers 24-10 in Super Bowl 50 last February as 4 ½-point underdogs and the oddsmakers have Carolina listed as a road favorite in a rematch that is very rare.
The primetime opener marks just the seventh time in NFL history that the previous season’s Super Bowl opponents square off in a rematch in the very next season.
2014 – Seattle 26 vs. Denver 20 (OT)
Super Bowl 48 – Seattle 43 Denver 8
1997 – Green Bay 28 at New England 10
Super Bowl 31 – Green Bay 35 New England 21
1993 – Buffalo 13 Dallas 10
Super Bowl 27 – Dallas 52 Buffalo 17
1979 – Pittsburgh 14 vs. Dallas 3
Super Bowl 13 – Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31
1977 – Oakland 35 vs. Minnesota 13
Super Bowl 11 – Oakland 34 Minnesota 14
1970 – Minnesota 27 vs. Kansas City 10
Super Bowl 4 – Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7
Looking above you can see that the Super Bowl winner has gone 4-2 (67%) in the rematch game.
While the sample on this trend isn’t that large, there are two other Super Bowl handicapping angles that have become solid staples for Week 1.
Betting on the defending Super Bowl champions in their Week 1 opener the following season is a well-known angle and many gamblers have banked on it.
After watching the Super Bowl champions drop back-to-back openers in 2012 and 2013, the defending champions have bounced back with victories in each of the last two seasons.
SUPER BOWL WINNER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (2000-2015)
Year SB Winner Opponent Score (SU-ATS Result)
2015 New England (-7) vs. Pittsburgh 28-21 (Win-Push)
2014 Seattle (-4.5) vs. Green Bay 36-16 (Win-Win)
2013 Baltimore (+7.5) at Denver 27-49 (Loss-Loss)
2012 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) vs. Dallas 17-24 (Loss-Loss)
2011 Green Bay (-4.5) vs. New Orleans 42-34 (Win-Win)
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Minnesota 14-9 (Win-Win)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Tennessee 13-10 (Win-Loss)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) vs. Washington 16-7 (Win-Win)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) vs. New Orleans 41-10 (Win-Win)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Miami 28-17 (Win-Win)
2005 New England (-7.5) vs. Oakland 30-20 (Win-Win)
2004 New England (-3) vs. Indianapolis 27-24 (Win-Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Philadelphia 17-0 (Win-Win)
2002 New England (PK) vs. Pittsburgh 30-14 (Win-Win)
2001 Baltimore (-10) vs. Chicago 17-6 (Win-Win)
2000 St. Louis (-7) vs. Denver 41-36 ((Win-Loss)
Including New England's win last season, the defending champions are now 14-2 straight up and 10-4-2 against the spread in Week 1 openers since 2000.
During this span, the Super Bowl winner has only been listed as an underdog twice and they’ve gone 1-1 in those matchups.
As mentioned above, Denver will be in that role on Thursday when Carolina visits for the rematch.
While the Panthers have the clear-cut advantage at quarterback with Cam Newton over the Broncos first-time starter Trevor Siemian, backing Super Bowl losers in Week 1 hasn’t been a great investment.
SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (1999-2015)
Year SB Loser Opponent Score (SU-ATS Result)
2015 Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis 34-31 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2014 Denver (-8) vs. Indianapolis 31-24 (Win-Loss-Over)
2013 San Francisco (-5.5) vs. Green Bay 34-28 (Win-Win-Over)
2012 New England (-5) at Tennessee 34-13 (Win-Win-Under)
2011 Pittsburgh (+1) at Baltimore 7-35 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2010 Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston 24-34 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2009 Arizona (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 6-20 (Loss-Loss)
2008 New England (-16) vs. Kansas City 17-10 (Win-Loss)
2007 Chicago (+6) at San Diego 3-14 (Loss-Loss)
2006 Seattle (-6) at Detroit 9-6 (Win-Loss)
2005 Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta 10-14 (Loss-Loss)
2004 Carolina (-3) vs. Green Bay 14-24 (Loss-Loss)
2003 Oakland (+3) at Tennessee 20-25 (Loss-Loss)
2002 St. Louis (-3) at Denver 16-23 (Loss-Loss)
2001 N.Y. Giants (+3) vs. San Francisco 13-16 (Loss-Loss)
2000 Tennessee (PK) at Buffalo 13-16 (Loss-Loss)
1999 Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota 14-17 (Loss-Win)
Since 2000, the runner-up has gone 5-11 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.
Despite the poor overall numbers (20%) versus the number during this span, the ‘losers’ have won three of the last four seasons and they were expected to do so as favorites.
We also highlighted in the above table that the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six Week 1 openers for the Super Bowl loser.
The total on the Panthers and Broncos opened 43 ½ but has since dropped to 42 at most sportsbooks as of Monday.
September 5, 2016
The 2016 NFL regular season kicks off Thursday as Denver meets Carolina from Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
The Broncos defeated the Panthers 24-10 in Super Bowl 50 last February as 4 ½-point underdogs and the oddsmakers have Carolina listed as a road favorite in a rematch that is very rare.
The primetime opener marks just the seventh time in NFL history that the previous season’s Super Bowl opponents square off in a rematch in the very next season.
2014 – Seattle 26 vs. Denver 20 (OT)
Super Bowl 48 – Seattle 43 Denver 8
1997 – Green Bay 28 at New England 10
Super Bowl 31 – Green Bay 35 New England 21
1993 – Buffalo 13 Dallas 10
Super Bowl 27 – Dallas 52 Buffalo 17
1979 – Pittsburgh 14 vs. Dallas 3
Super Bowl 13 – Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31
1977 – Oakland 35 vs. Minnesota 13
Super Bowl 11 – Oakland 34 Minnesota 14
1970 – Minnesota 27 vs. Kansas City 10
Super Bowl 4 – Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7
Looking above you can see that the Super Bowl winner has gone 4-2 (67%) in the rematch game.
While the sample on this trend isn’t that large, there are two other Super Bowl handicapping angles that have become solid staples for Week 1.
Betting on the defending Super Bowl champions in their Week 1 opener the following season is a well-known angle and many gamblers have banked on it.
After watching the Super Bowl champions drop back-to-back openers in 2012 and 2013, the defending champions have bounced back with victories in each of the last two seasons.
SUPER BOWL WINNER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (2000-2015)
Year SB Winner Opponent Score (SU-ATS Result)
2015 New England (-7) vs. Pittsburgh 28-21 (Win-Push)
2014 Seattle (-4.5) vs. Green Bay 36-16 (Win-Win)
2013 Baltimore (+7.5) at Denver 27-49 (Loss-Loss)
2012 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) vs. Dallas 17-24 (Loss-Loss)
2011 Green Bay (-4.5) vs. New Orleans 42-34 (Win-Win)
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Minnesota 14-9 (Win-Win)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Tennessee 13-10 (Win-Loss)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) vs. Washington 16-7 (Win-Win)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) vs. New Orleans 41-10 (Win-Win)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Miami 28-17 (Win-Win)
2005 New England (-7.5) vs. Oakland 30-20 (Win-Win)
2004 New England (-3) vs. Indianapolis 27-24 (Win-Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Philadelphia 17-0 (Win-Win)
2002 New England (PK) vs. Pittsburgh 30-14 (Win-Win)
2001 Baltimore (-10) vs. Chicago 17-6 (Win-Win)
2000 St. Louis (-7) vs. Denver 41-36 ((Win-Loss)
Including New England's win last season, the defending champions are now 14-2 straight up and 10-4-2 against the spread in Week 1 openers since 2000.
During this span, the Super Bowl winner has only been listed as an underdog twice and they’ve gone 1-1 in those matchups.
As mentioned above, Denver will be in that role on Thursday when Carolina visits for the rematch.
While the Panthers have the clear-cut advantage at quarterback with Cam Newton over the Broncos first-time starter Trevor Siemian, backing Super Bowl losers in Week 1 hasn’t been a great investment.
SUPER BOWL LOSER - WEEK 1 HISTORY (1999-2015)
Year SB Loser Opponent Score (SU-ATS Result)
2015 Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis 34-31 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2014 Denver (-8) vs. Indianapolis 31-24 (Win-Loss-Over)
2013 San Francisco (-5.5) vs. Green Bay 34-28 (Win-Win-Over)
2012 New England (-5) at Tennessee 34-13 (Win-Win-Under)
2011 Pittsburgh (+1) at Baltimore 7-35 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2010 Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston 24-34 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2009 Arizona (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 6-20 (Loss-Loss)
2008 New England (-16) vs. Kansas City 17-10 (Win-Loss)
2007 Chicago (+6) at San Diego 3-14 (Loss-Loss)
2006 Seattle (-6) at Detroit 9-6 (Win-Loss)
2005 Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta 10-14 (Loss-Loss)
2004 Carolina (-3) vs. Green Bay 14-24 (Loss-Loss)
2003 Oakland (+3) at Tennessee 20-25 (Loss-Loss)
2002 St. Louis (-3) at Denver 16-23 (Loss-Loss)
2001 N.Y. Giants (+3) vs. San Francisco 13-16 (Loss-Loss)
2000 Tennessee (PK) at Buffalo 13-16 (Loss-Loss)
1999 Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota 14-17 (Loss-Win)
Since 2000, the runner-up has gone 5-11 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.
Despite the poor overall numbers (20%) versus the number during this span, the ‘losers’ have won three of the last four seasons and they were expected to do so as favorites.
We also highlighted in the above table that the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six Week 1 openers for the Super Bowl loser.
The total on the Panthers and Broncos opened 43 ½ but has since dropped to 42 at most sportsbooks as of Monday.
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