The Bum's 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/04/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/05/2016 26-34-0 43.33% -5700
11/08/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/09/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/10/2016 1-5-0 16.67% -2250
11/11/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/12/2016 23-28-1 45.10% -3900
11/15/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/16/2016 3-1-0 75.00% +95011/17/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100


TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 82 - 73- 7 *****

BIG TEN GOY................0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )
MT. WEST GOY..............1 - 0 ( WYOMING ROLLS BIG OVER UTAH ST. )
MAC UNDERDOG GOY.....1 - 0 ( KENT ST. + 21 W.MICHIGAN 37 )
ACC BLOW OUT.............0 - 1 ( CLEMSON -21.5 42 - 43 PITT )
MAC FAVORITE .............1 - 0 ( MIA-OHIO - 10 OVER BUFFALO 35 -24)
SEC BLOW OUT..............1 - 0 ( BAMA -28.5 OVER MISS ST. 51 - 3 )
PAC 12 GOY...................0 - 1 ( USC UPSETS WASHINGTON 26-13 )
BIG 10 DOG..................0 - 1 ( MINNESOTA + 6 LOSES TO NEBRASKA 17 -24 )
PAC 12 BLOW OUT .........1 - 0 ( COLORADO - 17.5 CRUSHES ARIZONA 49 - 24 )
THURS. NIGHT GOY.........0 - 1 ( HOUSTON UPSETS LOUISVILLE 36 -10 )

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 290-286-12 50.35% -12300

O/U Picks 102-110-4 48.11% -9500

[StarDust Bum]

UNLV at Boise State
November 16, 2016


Boise State (9-1 straight up, 3-7 against the spread) went into Week 11 needing help to have a chance to get to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. UNLV, the Broncos’ counterpart when they collide Friday night on the blue carpet, provided just that.

You see, Boise St. essentially fell two games back of Wyoming in the MWC’s Mountain Division with a 30-28 loss to the Cowboys as a 14-point road favorite on Oct. 29. With Wyoming owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos, they were essentially two games out with four weeks left in the regular season.

But when UNLV (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) produced its best performance of the season last week, stunning Wyoming 69-66 in triple overtime, it created a three-way tie for first place atop the MWC Mtn. standings. Harsin’s team is joined by New Mexico and Wyoming as each school is sporting 5-1 records in league play.

Boise State smashed the Lobos 49-21 in Albuquerque, while UNM closes the regular season at home with the Cowboys. Therefore, if BSU can beat UNLV and avenge a home loss to Air Force from last year when it travels to Colorado Springs next Friday, the Broncos will face San Diego State in the MWC Championship Game.

First, though, BSU must take care of business on Friday night against the Rebels. As of early Wednesday, most books had the Broncos installed as 28-point home favorites with a total of 66. Gamblers could back UNLV to pull a shocker for a 30/1 payout at *** Global and 5Dimes.eu.

BSU is unbeaten in five home games at Albertsons Stadium this year to improve to 16-2 on the smurf turf since Bryan Harsin took over for Chris Petersen in 2014. The Broncos have limped to a 0-5 spread record at home, however, and they’re an abysmal 6-12 versus the number in 18 home games on Harsin’s watch. Going back even further, BSU is an atrocious 11-26 ATS since its final home game of the 2010 campaign.

Boise State played BYU and a pair of Pac-12 teams in non-conference play. The Broncos beat a Washington State squad that has won eight in a row since then by a 31-28 count as 12.5-point home ‘chalk’ in Week 2. They also went to Corvallis and beat Oregon St. 38-24, in addition to edging the Cougars 28-27 at home.

BSU is at home vs. UNLV on a short week, which would normally mean I’d give the host school an extra point or two toward the line because its short preparation time wouldn’t be hindered by travel. We can throw that standard thought process out the window in this spot, however, because the Broncos played at Hawaii last week.

Harsin’s team captured a 52-16 win over the Warriors at Aloha Stadium as a 21.5-point road favorite. The 68 combined points went ‘over’ the 62.5-point total when Hawaii scored a TD with 12:05 remaining.

Brett Rypien completed 18-of-22 throws for 338 yards and four TDs without an interception. Junior RB Jeremy McNichols rushed for 153 yards and two scores on 16 attempts, while Cedrick Wilson had seven receptions for 141 yards and one TD. Thomas Sperbeck hauld in five catches for 114 yards and two TDs, while McNichols had three grabs for 29 yards.

For the season, Rypien has connected on 65.0 percent of his passes for 2,916 yards with a 22/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sperbeck is his favorite target for a second straight year. The senior WR has become the school’s all-time leader in receiving yards (3,352) by bringing down 62 receptions for 1,023 yards and nine TDs. Sperbeck has also thrown three TD passes on three attempts off of trick plays.

McNichols has rushed for 1,369 yards, surpassing his 1,337-yard total from his sophomore campaign in 2015. The junior RB has 18 rushing TDs with a 5.7 yards-per-carry average. McNichols also has 31 catches for 428 yards and four TDs. Wilson has 44 catches for 827 yards and nine TDs.

UNLV’s huge win over Wyoming kept its bowl hopes alive for another week, but the victory was bittersweet due to the season-ending injury sustained by Devonte Boyd. The junior WR broke his arm yet continued to play against the Cowboys and had a key 17-yard catch in double OT. Boyd’s season is over after making a team-best 45 catches for 746 yards and four TDs.

Wyoming needed a TD from its defense and special teams just to have a chance late in the fourth quarter. On the final play of regulation, Josh Allen found Tanner Gentry for a 19-yard scoring strike and the subsequent extra point knotted the score at 52-52 to force the extra sessions.

In the third OT, UNLV secured the victory with Nicolai Bornand’s 40-yard game-winning field goal. The Rebels scored in the first OTs on a pair of TD passes from Kurt Palandech, who completed 20-of-32 passes for 252 yards and three TDs without an interception. Boyd had 10 receptions for 127 yards, while Palandech also rushed 16 times for 157 yards and one TD.

Xzaviar Campbell rushed for 83 yards and one TD on 19 carries. He also had two receptions for 18 yards and one TD. David Greene ran for 70 yards and a pair of scores on 14 attempts, while Jericho Flowers produced 92 yards on five ‘touches’ (two rushes, three catches).

Palandech was making his first start of the year against the Cowboys after Johnny Stanton went down with a knee injury that has him out for an indefinite period of time. Palandech has played in just two games, completing 30-of-55 passes for 413 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 197 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.9 YPC.

UNLV was without its leading rusher Lexington Thomas vs. Wyoming due to an ankle injury, but he’s expected back in the starting lineup Friday. Thomas has rushed for 632 yards and eight TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. He was actually passed by freshman RB Charles Williams in rushing yards last week. Williams’ 64 rushing yards against the Cowboys brought his season total to 665. He has three rushing scores and a 5.8 YPC average.

UNLV has lost four of its five road games while going 2-3 ATS. Since Sanchez took over before last season, the Rebels have posted a 5-3 spread record in eight games as road underdogs.

When these schools met at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas last season, BSU cruised to a 55-27 win to take the cash as a 21-point road favorite. The 82 combined points catapulted ‘over’ the 53.5-point total. Rypien threw for 469 yards and two TDs without an interception, while McNichols rushed for 122 yards and one TD on 22 carries. Sperbeck had 10 receptions for 163 yards for the winners, while Boyd had 10 catches for 116 yards in the losing effort.

The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for BSU, 4-1 in its five home outings. However, it has seen back-to-back ‘overs.’ The Broncos have seen their games average combined scores of 58.5 points per game. This is their second-highest total of the year. The ‘over’ has a 3-2 record in their five previous games with totals in the 60s.

The ‘over’ has been a money maker for UNLV all year, cashing at an 8-2 overall clip. The Rebels have seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 in their five road assignments. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 69.8 PPG. We should note, however, that this is the highest total they’ve seen all season. The ‘over’ has gone 3-0 in their three games with totals in the 60s. UNLV’s highest total previously was in its opener when the 76 combined points soared ‘over ‘the 63.5-point tally in a 63-13 home win over Jackson State.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There’s one other game on Friday’s card with Cincinnati taking on Memphis at Nippert Stadium on the CBS Sports College Network at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. As of Wednesday, the Tigers were 7.5-point road favorites with a total of 57.5 points. The Bearcats were +250 on the money line. Tommy Tuberville’s team has had a rough year, limping to a 4-6 SU record and a 2-8 ATS mark. UC must win its last two regular-season games or it will be left out of the postseason for the first time since 2010. The Bearcats have lost three in a row both SU and ATS, scoring only 19 points in those three defeats. Memphis (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS) has failed to cover the number in six of its last seven games, including last week’s 49-42 loss to South Florida as a 3.5-point home underdog. The Tigers had a great chance to force overtime, but the referees didn’t throw a flag on a fourth-and-goal play when a USF defender clearly committed pass interference.

-- Since Tuberville took over in 2013, Cincy has compiled a 3-4 spread record in seven games as a home underdog. However, the Bearcats are 1-3 both SU and ATS in four such spots this season.

-- The ‘under’ has been the play in Cincy games this season, hitting at a remarkable 9-0-1 overall clip. On the flip side, the ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run in Memphis games since the Tigers saw the ‘under’ prevailed in its first two games.

-- Colorado and Temple share the nation’s best ATS record (9-1), while Alabama, Wisconsin, UCF, Eastern Michigan and Colorado State are 8-2 versus the number.

-- Arizona has the nation’s worst ATS record (1-9), while Oregon has limped to a 1-8-1 ATS ledger.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in nine consecutive games for Pittsburgh. The Panthers, who are off last week’s 43-42 win at Clemson as 21.5-point road underdogs, play host to Duke this week as eight-point favorites (as of Wednesday). They’ll do so without star safety Jordan Whitehead, who broke his arm against Clemson and will miss the next two games. Whitehead, who led Pitt with 109 tackles last year and has a team-best 65 tackles this season, might be able to return for his team’s bowl game. He had also recorded 1.5 tackles for loss, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, two passes broken up and a 59-yard pick-six.

-- Duke has covered the spread in five straight games. Since David Cutcliffe took over in 2008, the Blue Devils have compiled a 21-16-1 spread record in 38 games as road underdogs, including a 3-1 ATS mark in four such spots this year.

-- Syracuse sophomore QB Eric Dungey (15/7 TD-INT, 2,679 passing yards) is ‘doubtful’ (concussion) for Saturday’s home game vs. FSU. The Seminoles were favored by 21 points on Wednesday.

-- South Florida junior QB Quinton Flowers enjoyed a performance for the ages during his team’s 49-42 win at Memphis as a three-point road favorite last week. Flowers connected on 24-of-29 throws for 263 yards and two TDs without an interception He also ran for 210 yards and three TDs on 20 attempts, including the game-winning score on a 22-yard scamper with 1:46 remaining. Flowers’ score resulted in the fifth lead change of a thrilling game at the Liberty Bowl.

-- Utah State has failed to cover the number in five consecutive games. The ‘over’ had hit in four in a row for the Aggies until they lost 24-21 at home to New Mexico and the 45 combined points went ‘under’ the 57-point total.

-- Air Force is mired in a 1-5 ATS slump, while the ‘over’ is on a 5-1 run for the Falcons in their last six outings. They play at San Jose State in Week 12.

[StarDust Bum]

Best Bets - Week 12
November 17, 2016

Switching back over to playing totals last week with my best bets paid off handsomely as Stanford/Oregon Over, and Illinois/Wisconsin Over cashed with ease.

That makes it three weeks in a row where I've swept the board with these CFB Best Bets and I hope to make it four straight this week.

Last week's games saw the college football playoff picture get shook up dramatically with #2,#3, and #4 all losing outright. The losses by Clemson and Michigan weren't significant enough to knock them out of the Top 4 in this week's rankings, but those programs will likely have to run the table during the rest of the regular season to maintain their spot.

Furthermore, I've mentioned in past weeks that college football teams that suffer their first loss after starting 4-0 or 5-0 SU or better tend to be great 'fades' the following week, so bettors should keep plays on Wake Forest (+22.5), Indiana (+24), and Arizona State (+27) in mind.

Those three schools are up against Clemson, Michigan, and Washington respectively and all three of those teams fit the profile of being bet against after suffering their first outright defeat.

Those three plays aren't part of my Best Bets feature this week but should definitely be considered this weekend as ones to add to your card.

Best Bet #1: Illinois (+10)

The Illini got smoked by Wisconsin last week as we cashed an 'over' ticket there, but they were never expected to really have a chance in that contest. This week is different though as they are back at home (where two of their three SU wins have come) hosting an Iowa team that finds itself in a huge letdown spot.

Iowa pulled off the massive upset by beating Michigan a week ago as 24-point underdogs and there is little chance they come into this week's game with the same focus, motivation, and energy after spending the week reading their press clippings about what they accomplished seven days ago.

That victory over the Wolverines also was the sixth win on the year for the Hawkeyes, accomplishing their goal of being Bowl eligible and there is little doubt they won't be going bowling with a huge win like that one on their resume.

But laying double digits on them in this spot this week is absurd and I wouldn't even be surprised to see Iowa fall victim to their own outright shocking upset either.

For as bad as Illinois looked last week, bettors can't forget about how good they looked two weeks ago in beating Michigan State 31-27. Illinois was in a similar spot that week as they are this one; getting about 10 points and coming off a blowout loss, so I expect the Illini to show up this week.

Best Bet #2: Florida/LSU Over 39

This is the makeup game between these two SEC teams that was cancelled earlier due to the hurricane. Florida was supposed to be the home team in that original contest and clearly switching over to being the visitors does them no favors.

Both of the Gators losses this year have come away from home and as +14.5 underdogs this week, oddsmakers believe they'll add a third one to their record this week. However, this game features a few similarities to that Illinois/Wisconsin game last week when we had the total below 40 points and we could see more points then expected here.

For one, other than the 10-0 loss vs. Alabama, LSU's offense has really opened things up and thrived under interim HC Ed Orgeron. Since the beginning of October, LSU has scored 42, 45, 38, 0, and 38 points in five games. Throw out that gooseegg vs. #1 Alabama and you'll see that things have really started to click offensively for LSU.

Now, the Gators defense is more comparable to 'Bama's then the other opponents on that list, but the Gators have allowed 30+ in two of their last four road games (their two SU defeats) and with this game projected to be another Florida loss, there's a good chance LSU threatens that 30+ point total themselves.

Neither team has been a great 'over' bet all year with a combined 4-12-2 O/U record between the two of them, but like the Illinois/Wisconsin game a week ago, the points put up in this game should surprise many and there is no question that the Gators offense will carry their weight in that regard, unlike the Illini did last week.

[StarDust Bum]

Traps to Watch - Week 12
November 17, 2016

Week 12 Full Of Potential Trap Games In NCAA Football

The final full weekend of college football is next weekend and it's the biggest rivalry Saturday of the season. This year there are College Football Playoff relevant games between Washington-Washington State and Michigan-Ohio State, to name two.

The Iron Bowl could be important only if Auburn were to stage a huge upset of No. 1 Alabama, the heavy -150 national championship favorite in college football betting at BetOnline. The Tide are the only Power 5 unbeaten team left.

Because so many powerhouse teams are playing relative cupcakes this Saturday and could have a potential eye on next week's regular-season finale, Week 12 is often a big trap/look-ahead weekend for the overwhelming favorites. Here are some to be wary of with the BetOnline spreads and Associated Press rankings.

No. 2 Ohio State at Michigan State (+21.5): The Spartans are the country's biggest disappointments this year after reaching last year's College Football Playoff as they have just one Big Ten win in their worst season under Coach Mark Dantonio. Perhaps the Buckeyes won't overlook Sparty because MSU pulled off a 17-14 upset in Columbus last year to ruin Ohio State's chances of repeating as the national champions. But you can't tell me the OSU players won't be more focused on Ann Arbor.

Indiana at No. 4 Michigan (-22.5): Speaking of Ann Arbor, it's the home finale for Michigan, which will play without starting quarterback Wilton Speight after he injured his collarbone in last week's shocking loss in Iowa. But the Wolverines still control their Big Ten title and playoff destiny with, assuming they take care of business here, a win in Columbus next week.

No. 17 Florida State at Syracuse (+21): It has been a disappointing season for the Seminoles, a preseason Top-5 club and popular pick to make the national semifinals. Beating Syracuse on Saturday isn't going to change anything. But you know FSU would love to spank potential SEC East Division champion and blood-rival Florida next week just as happened in last year's game. Doubtful Syracuse gets full attention here.

Chattanooga at No. 1 Alabama (-49.5): The penultimate Saturday of the SEC regular season is always terrible because most of these programs are beating up on FCS programs. Why would Alabama even play its starters more than a quarter or two ahead of next week's game vs. Auburn? The Tide often fail to cover these games. You could put Auburn's game vs. Alabama A&M on Saturday on this list as well. Ditto South Carolina's game vs. Western Carolina as the Gamecocks have a chance to ruin rival Clemson's season next week.

Arizona State at No. 7 Washington (-27): ASU would get bowl eligible with an upset here, but it's all about the Huskies. What will they have left in the tank in seeing their College Football Playoff hopes take a big hit in last week's one-sided home loss to Southern Cal? Plus the Huskies visit Washington State in the Apple Cup next week, with the winner claiming the Pac-12 North Division.

Buffalo at No. 14 Western Michigan (-34): The Mid-American Conference's Broncos are the nation's other unbeaten team and they have a direct path to playing in a New Year's Six bowl game for the first time in school history as long as they win out. This sets up in a myriad of ways as a trap game for WMU. First, Buffalo stinks and the Broncos host a very good Toledo team next week for the right to play in the MAC title game. Second, ESPN GameDay is in Kalamazoo this weekend. That's a huge deal for a program like Western Michigan. It's a shame that WMU won't be able to keep Coach P.J. Fleck as he'll be in high demand by bigger programs this offseason.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 12
November 17, 2016


2016 BIG 10 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois 3-7 2-5 5-5 5-5

Indiana 5-5 3-4 4-6 6-6

Iowa 6-4 4-3 4-6 4-6

Maryland 5-5 2-5 3-7 4-6

Michigan 9-1 6-1 5-5 7-3

Michigan State 3-7 1-6 3-7 4-6

Minnesota 7-3 4-3 3-5-2 5-5

Nebraska 8-2 5-2 5-3-2 2-8

Northwestern 5-5 4-3 6-4 3-7

Ohio State 9-1 6-1 6-4 5-5

Penn State 8-2 6-1 6-3-1 8-2

Purdue 3-7 1-6 4-6 8-2

Rutgers 2-8 0-7 4-6 6-4

Wisconsin 8-2 5-2 8-2 3-7


Ohio State (-21.5) at Michigan State – (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Michigan State – Who would have guessed that MSU would pick up their FIRST Big Ten win on November 12th? Not us. Sparty moved to 1-6 in Big Ten play with a 49-0 whitewashing of Rutgers. The Spartan defense looks like they might be kicking it up a notch at the end of the season. We’ve grown accustomed to good defense when discussing the Green & White and last week they held Rutgers scoreless on just 149 total yards. A week earlier they stopped Illinois for 305 yards but MSU lost that. Those two games are a huge improvement after they gave up an average of 425 YPG over their first five Big Ten games.

The Scarlet Knights had 13 offensive possessions in the game and 12 of those went for 18 yards or less. They allowed Rutgers to cross midfield only twice the entire game. Star DL McDowell was injured and sat out the game forcing head coach Mark Dantonio to start two freshman defensive lineman for the first time in their careers. Offensively much maligned senior QB Tyler O’Connor had only 10 completions but 3 of those were for TD’s all in the first half. He didn’t need to complete many passes as the Spartans dominated the ground game with 277 yards, their season high, on 50 carries.

Ohio State – The Buckeyes won their second consecutive game by the exact same score of 62-3. Two weeks ago they whipped Nebraska by that margin and last Saturday Maryland was on the receiving end. After going 3 straight games without reaching 30 points in regulation (Wisconsin, Penn State, & Northwestern) they have exploded for 124 points in the last two games on almost 1,100 total yards. Over that two game span OSU is +47 in first downs (what?) and +791 in total yardage. Dominating to say the least. QB J.T. Barrett has been fantastic in the last two games completing 44 of his 65 pass attempts for 543 yards and 6 TD’s (no interceptions).

Last year in a home loss to Michigan State, Barrett had one of the worst games in his career completing just 9 passes for only 46 yards. The Buckeyes were held to just 132 total yards in last year’s 17-14 loss. Interestingly, Ohio State was a 14.5 point favorite at home last year and now they are -21.5 on the road this season. Despite the disparity in the two teams records, the Buckeyes will be motivated here due to last year’s results. We’ve been told many of the OSU players have been waiting patiently for this rematch.

Last Year - Michigan State (+14.5) upset the Buckeyes on the road last year 17-14 with backup QB Tyler O’Connor at the helm. That won catapulted MSU to the Big Ten Championship and eventually College Football’s Final 4.

Inside the Numbers - The road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings in this Big Ten series. The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7. The dog has also claimed outright wins in each of the last 5 meetings in this match up. This is just the third time that MSU has been a home dog of more than 20 points since the 1980 season. They are 2-0 ATS in that spot including a cover in a 9-point loss at home vs Michigan this season as a 24 point underdog.

Iowa (-10) at Illinois – (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Illinois – The Illini should get a boost offensively this week with starting QB Wes Lunt ready to go. His last start was back on October 8th at Purdue. Lunt was injured in the 2nd quarter of that game and was inserted in the 2nd half last week for his first game action in over 30 days. He came in for Jeff George Jr who continues to struggle. George threw 4 interceptions in the first half last week at Wisconsin, a 48-3 loss. He led Illinois on 7 offensive possessions in the first half turning the ball over in 4 of them. He ended the game with one more completion (5) than interception (4).

Lunt took over in the 2nd half and while he didn’t really do anything (2 for 8 passing) he did get some reps which should help prepare him for this week. He didn’t have a chance to do much as Illinois ran only 15 plays in the entire 2nd half. That’s because Wisconsin dominated the ball rushing for 363 yards on 64 attempts and held a 42:00 to 18:00 time of possession edge. It was the second straight game the Illini defense was on the field for more than 40:00 minutes and they were gassed late in the Wisconsin game. That definitely should have a negative effect this week if Iowa is able to control the ground game.

Iowa – In what has been a very disappointing year for Iowa, the Hawkeyes were able to create a highlight moment last week in a season devoid of them. They were just 1-3 at home coming into last week’s game facing a Michigan team that was undefeated and favored by 20+ points. The last time Iowa was a home underdog of that magnitude was back in 1999. They pulled the upset kicking a field goal as time expired to win 14-13 moving them to 6-4 which makes them bowl eligible. It was their third straight win over Michigan in Iowa City. The defense was the big surprise. We knew they would struggle on offense against a great Wolverine defense. Iowa had just 230 yards of total offense and after kicking a FG on the opening drive of the 2nd half, never crossed midfield again until 1:16 remaining in the game.

The Iowa defense was the big surprise. After allowing 600 yards and 41 points a week earlier at PSU, the Hawkeye defense stifled a very good Michigan offense holding them to 13 points and just 201 total yards. Coming into the game they had allowed each of their previous three opponents to reach at least 423 yards with two of them topping 500. It was impossible to foresee this defense slowing down a Michigan offense that was averaging 521 YPG in conference play. Now they have to avoid the proverbial “letdown” traveling to Illinois coming off their big Michigan win with a home finale vs Nebraska on deck.

Last Year - Iowa topped Illinois 29-20 at home last season. They failed to cover the 10.5 point spread however. They Hawkeyes are favored by basically the same number at Illinois this season.

Inside the Numbers - Iowa has won 10 of the last 13 in this series. This is just the third time since 1980 that Iowa has been a double digit favorite at Illinois (1-2 ATS). This has been a low scoring series as of late. Since 2000 these two have met 9 times and the average combined score in those game has been 39 points with the highest output during that stretch being 51.

Maryland at Nebraska (-14.5) – (ESPNNews, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Nebraska – The Huskers bounced back with a nice 24-17 win over Minnesota after back to back road losses at Wisconsin and at Ohio State. QB Tommy Armstrong didn’t practice the entire week and finally cleared concussion protocol on the morning of the game so he was able to start and played well with 217 yards passing, 61 yards rushing, and 3 TD’s. With the game tied at 17 in the 4th quarter, Armstrong led Nebraska on a 91 yard go-ahead TD drive to put them up 7. With Minnesota driving late for a potential tying TD, the Nebraska defense made a key interception inside the 5-yard line for the game clincher. The defense played very well shutting down Minnesota’s running game to just 2.5 YPC on 34 attempts. After scoring 17 in the opening 30 minutes, the Husker defense held Minnesota scoreless in the 2nd half and held the Gophers to under 100 yards after the break.

Back to Armstrong…Different week, different ailing body parts for Armstrong who is again questionable this week after injuring his hamstring AND ankle in last week’s game. Word is he was limping very badly early in the week and back up QB Ryker Fyfe is getting the first team snaps. However, it’s Senior Day and Armstrong’s last home game so if he can find a way to play on Saturday he will. If Nebraska wins out and Wisconsin loses one of their final two games, the Huskers will be in the Big 10 Championship game so still a lot for them to play for.

Maryland – What once looked like a promising season for Maryland and new head coach DJ Durkin has gone south in a hurry. Coming into Big Ten play, the Terps were only three wins away from bowl eligibility and the way they were playing that looked like a lock. After last week’s embarrassing home performance vs Ohio State, a 62-3 loss, Maryland needs to win one of their final two games to get to six wins. The Terps are coming of back to back huge losses to Michigan & Ohio State in which they were outscored by a combined 121-6 and outgained by a combined 697 yards! They got behind quickly in each of those games trailing Michigan 35-0 at half and Ohio State 45-3 at the break.

In those two losses, the Terp defense allowed Michigan & Ohio State to score TD’s on 11 of their 14 combined first half drives. Maryland heads into this Saturday’s game at Nebraska as a bruised and battered squad. Durkin suspended three players just before kickoff last week due to a violation of the athlete code of conduct. That included RB Lorenzo Harrison who had rushed for over 600 yards on the season. Then QB Perry Hills was injured (shoulder) on the 2nd series of the game and didn’t return. It was the fourth time this season Hills has been knocked out of a game due to injury. He may not play this week. Durkin will see what his team is made of as they try and rebound from their two worst losses they’ve ever had in Big Ten play coming in back to back weeks.

Last Year - These two have not met since Maryland joined the Big Ten a few years ago.

Inside the Numbers - The Terps have covered 8 straight games following a loss at home by 10 poitns or more. Maryland is 0-3 ATS their last 3 games. The last time the Terps failed to cover four games in a row was back in 2011. Nebraska has lost and failed to cover each of their last 3 home finales.

Wisconsin (-27.5) at Purdue – (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Purdue – The Boilers officially eliminated themselves from bowl contention last Saturday with a 45-17 loss at home to Northwestern. That dropped Purdue to 3-7 on the year. PU jumped out to a quick 10-0 lead at home last week but then were outscored 45-7 the rest of the way. It continued a Purdue trend which we brought up in last week’s edition. They continue to play teams tight in the 1st half only to be demolished in the 2nd half. They trailed NW just 14-10 at half last week. In the last four games, Purdue has outscored their opponents 69-64 in the 1st half and they’ve gone on to lose the 2nd half of those four games by a combined score of 109-17!

The defense continues to be absolutely shredded on a weekly basis. They rank dead last in the Big Ten (conference games only) in total defense allowing 500 YPG and in scoring defense giving up 44 PPG. They have allowed at least 30 points in every Big Ten game except one and they’ve given up at least 44 points in 5 of their 7 conference tilts. The Boilers played last week without their two best defenders – Jake Repogle and Ja’Whaun Bentley – and they may not be ready again this week. It was Purdue’s 15th consecutive loss in the month of November.

Wisconsin – We keep waiting for this Wisconsin team to have a “letdown” type game and they just continue to play well. Last Saturday was a perfect scenario for potential flat game for the Badgers as they were hosting an overmatched Illinois team after playing a brutal stretch of games vs Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern. All the Badgers did was come out and dominate 48-3 rushing for 363 yards while holding the Illini to 201 total yards. They were averaging just 18 PPG over their previous five games, albeit vs much better defenses, before busting out for almost 50 points last week.

Head coach Paul Chryst continued his “musical QB’s” playing both Hornibrook and Houston for the 5th straight game although it really didn’t matter who lined up under center in this one. The QB’s combined to attempt just 13 passes but handed the ball off 64 times. After keeping Illinois out of the endzone the Badgers have given up just 8 TD’s in their 7 Big Ten games. If you take out their games vs Michigan and Ohio State they have allowed only 3 TD’s vs their other five conference opponents.

Last Year - Wisconsin beat Purdue last year 24-7 in Madison. The Badgers had 418 total yards to just 191 for the Boilermakers.

Inside the Numbers - Wisconsin has beaten Purdue 10 straight times (9-1 ATS in those games). This spread sits at Wisky -27.5 which is the highest number in any of the last 10 years. The closest margin of victory for Wisconsin vs Purdue over the last 8 years was last year when the Badgers won by “just” 17. Purdue has won only 3 of their last 24 Big Ten home games.

Indiana at Michigan (-23.5) – (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Michigan – This line opened in the range of -26 all the way up to -28 at some spots. It dropped to -23.5 at most spots after the announcement that Michigan QB Wilton Speight would most likely be out for at least the remainder of the regular season due to a collarbone injury. Next in line for the Wolverines looks to be junior John O’Korn who transferred from Houston after losing his starting job to Greg Ward. He has appeared in eight games and gone 13 of 18 for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns as the team's primary backup quarterback.

As you are now well aware, Michigan was beaten at Iowa 14-13 last week as a 20 point favorite. A struggling Hawkeye defense held the Wolverines a full 319 yards below their season average! Michigan came into the game thinking they could run all over an Iowa defense that allowed 359 yards on the ground a week earlier at PSU. That wasn’t the case last Saturday as Michigan rushed for only 98 yards on just 2.8 YPC. The defense again played well enough to win holding Iowa to only 230 yards on 3.9 YPP. Even with the loss, Michigan came out at #3 in this week’s College FB poll which pretty much indicates if they win out, including the Big Ten Championship game, they are basically a shoe in for the College Football Playoff.

Indiana – Indiana is still battling to get to that 6th win for bowl eligibility and they have to win one of their last two games to do it. Last week they lost at home to a red hot Penn State team 45-31. It was a disastrous start for IU who punted on their first two possessions and then fumbled on three of their next four. Even with that the game was tied at 14 at halftime. It could be argued that IU actually outplayed Penn State as the Hoosiers had more yards, more first downs, and were better on 3rd down (8 of 17). Two keys to the loss were Indiana’s 5 turnovers and the fact their defense allowed a number of big plays - nine plays of 20+ yards.

Not only did those turnovers were lead to PSU points (14 points off turnovers) but the ones that didn’t came in Lion territory which prevented IU from potentially putting a bigger number on the board. The Hoosiers turned the ball over on the Penn State 24, 39, and 50 yard lines and were shut out on downs at the Nittany Lion 1 yard line. Defensively they held Penn State to just 77 yards rushing on 45 attempts (only 1.7 YPC). That was very impressive vs an offense the rolled up 257 & 359 yards rushing their previous two games. Michigan struggled to get any running game going last week which might be a glimmer of hope for this Indiana team.

Last Year - Last year we saw a lot of offense in this match up. Michigan won at Indiana in OT by a final score of 48-41. Both teams topped 500 yards of total offense.

Inside the Numbers - This series has been about as one sided as they come. Since 1980, Michigan is 27-1 SU in this series (17-11 ATS). Indiana has been an underdog in EVERY ONE of those 28 match ups, including going off as a double digit dog in 22 of those games. The Wolverines are 14-6 ATS (70%) coming off a SU loss dating back to the 2011 season.

Northwestern (-1) at Minnesota – (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Minnesota – After a 24-17 loss at Nebraska last Saturday, the Gophers no longer control their own destiny in the Big Ten West. Wisconsin is now the only team that holds that distinction. The Minnesota offense struggled in the loss tallying only 265 total yards. They jumped out of the gate with 17 first half points but kept off the scoreboard after the break. The Gophs are now 4-3 in the Big Ten and 7-3 overall. A close look at their overall results reveals they don’t have an impressive win but also don’t have a bad loss. Their four conference wins have come against Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Illinois who have a combined 5-23 Big Ten record. If you throw out their win against FCS Indiana State, their other two wins came against Colorado State & Oregon State, both one possession games at home.

The fact is, they haven’t beaten a team that currently has a winning record and if you throw in their wins over OSU & CSU, the seven teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 12-36. It also has to be said that their losses have all been very close with margins of 3 (vs PSU), 7 (vs Iowa), and 7 (vs Nebraska). While their wins aren’t impressive, the Gophers aren’t that far from being unbeaten. This will be Minnesota’s final home game before traveling to Wisconsin the last week of the regular season.

Northwestern – The Cats were in a battle at halftime last week at Purdue leading just 14-10. Going into halftime last week, Northwestern has only scored 21 points over their last 6 quarters combined. They broke out in a big way after halftime against a terrible Purdue defense tallying 31 points in the final 30 minutes. The Wildcat offense scored TD’s on their first four possessions of the 2nd half, kicked a FG on their fifth possessions, and were stopped on downs at the Purdue 1 yard line on their 6th and final possession of after the break. QB Clayton Thorson continued his big season throwing for a career high 352 yards vs the Boilers. This week he faces a Minnesota defense that has allowed more TD passes than any other team in the Big Ten (20) and currently ranks 12th in the league (all games included) allowing 231 YPG passing. Last Saturday’s win moved NW to within one game of bowl eligibility with a 5-5 record. That goal didn’t seem very reasonable early in the season when they lost 3 of their first 4 games including home setbacks to Illinois State and Western Michigan. After traveling to Minnesota this weekend the Cats host Illinois next week to close out the regular season.

Last Year - Northwestern (-4.5) pitched a 27-0 shutout at home last year holding Minnesota to only 173 total yards.

Inside the Numbers - Minnesota is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games following an outright loss. Northwestern was a road favorite last week at Purdue and covered easily. That means since 1980 the Cats are 25-8 SU as a road favorite (20-13 ATS). Throw out their game vs FCS Indiana State and the Gophs are 0-5 ATS at home this year failing to cover those games by a combined 42 points or 8 PPG.

Penn State (-28) at Rutgers – (Big Ten, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Rutgers – Just when it looked like Rutgers might be “sort of” turning the corner, they were destroyed at Michigan State 49-0. The Knights had played two tight games vs Indiana and Minnesota the previous two weeks before the Spartans crushed them to pick up their first Big Ten win. An offense that looked like it was at least getting close to respectable under new starting QB Rescigno was simply terrible last week. Rescigno completed only 6 passes the entire game and the running game was held to just 3 YPC. Rutgers was forced to punt on 9 of their 13 offensive possessions, 2 ended in turnovers, and the other 2 the Knights had the ball as time ran out in the first half and at the end of the game.

They have now lost seven consecutive games and the offense during that stretch has been shutout three times and scored just 7 points twice. The defense hasn’t been much better allowing at least 33 points in 5 of those 7 including giving up 49 or more three times during that span. You can bet that the Rutgers defense, which ranks 124th nationally vs the run, will get a heavy dose of the PSU ground game here after the Nits rushed for only 77 yards last week at Indiana.

Penn State – Well it’s now official, win their final two games vs Rutgers and Michigan State and the Nittany Lions will win at least a share of the Big Ten East title. They will go to the Big Ten Championship game if they win out and Michigan loses at Ohio State to close out the regular season. Michigan made this all possible by losing at Iowa last Saturday. The Penn State offense is on a ridiculous roll right now. If you subtract their game vs Michigan in which they scored just 10 points, Penn State is averaging 40 PPG in their other six Big Ten games. Over the last three games alone they have put up 148 points. The offense has been extremely efficient scoring points on 23 of their last 36 offensive possessions minus drives that ended in a turnover. They’ve now won six games in a row and scored 30 TD’s during that stretch! Fifteen different players have scored TD’s this year for PSU. Now facing a Rutgers defense that has allowed 33 or more points in 5 of the last 6 games, we can expect another big showing from the Penn State offense.

Last Year - Penn State has won both games in this series since Rutgers joined the Big Ten. Two years ago it was a tight 13-10 win on the road and last year an easy 28-3 win in Happy Valley.

Inside the Numbers - PSU has now covered 5 consecutive games covering 4 of those 5 games by at least 20 points! These two teams have met 16 times since 1982 and Penn State has won 15 of those games. All but 3 of those 15 wins came by at least 10 points.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/04/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/05/2016 26-34-0 43.33% -5700
11/08/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/09/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/10/2016 1-5-0 16.67% -2250
11/11/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/12/2016 23-28-1 45.10% -3900
11/15/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/16/2016 3-1-0 75.00% +95011/17/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100


TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 82 - 73- 7 *****

BIG TEN GOY................0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )
MT. WEST GOY..............1 - 0 ( WYOMING ROLLS BIG OVER UTAH ST. )
MAC UNDERDOG GOY.....1 - 0 ( KENT ST. + 21 W.MICHIGAN 37 )
ACC BLOW OUT.............0 - 1 ( CLEMSON -21.5 42 - 43 PITT )
MAC FAVORITE .............1 - 0 ( MIA-OHIO - 10 OVER BUFFALO 35 -24)
SEC BLOW OUT..............1 - 0 ( BAMA -28.5 OVER MISS ST. 51 - 3 )
PAC 12 GOY...................0 - 1 ( USC UPSETS WASHINGTON 26-13 )
BIG 10 DOG..................0 - 1 ( MINNESOTA + 6 LOSES TO NEBRASKA 17 -24 )
PAC 12 BLOW OUT .........1 - 0 ( COLORADO - 17.5 CRUSHES ARIZONA 49 - 24 )
THURS. NIGHT GOY.........0 - 1 ( HOUSTON UPSETS LOUISVILLE 36 -10 )

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 290-286-12 50.35% -12300

O/U Picks 102-110-4 48.11% -9500

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 18

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MEM at CIN 08:00 PM

CIN +7.0 *****

O 59.5 *****



UNLV at BSU 09:00 PM

UNLV +29.0 ***** ( DOG OF THE DAY )

O 64.0 ****** ( TOTAL OF THE DAY )

[StarDust Bum]

Memphis takes control early to beat Cincinnati 34-7
November 18, 2016

CINCINNATI (AP) Jason Stewart threw two touchdown passes and Doroland Dorceus ran for two more scores to lead Memphis to a 34-7 victory over Cincinnati on Friday night.

Memphis (7-4, 4-3 American) has beaten Cincinnati in three straight games.

Stewart tossed a 2-yard touchdown pass to Joey Magnifico, and a 22-yard scoring strike to Anthony Miller. Stewart had 138 yards passing after replacing starting quarterback Riley Ferguson, who left the game with an undisclosed injury after the Tigers' first possession.

''We wanted to make sure we took care of Riley'', Memphis coach Mike Norvell said. ''It was mostly a precaution. I won't go into it in detail but I think it'll be fine. It's tough when a guy has to come in seven or eight minutes into a game.''

Stewart appeared in three games before Friday, completing 7 of 12 passes for 63 yards.

''I was a little nervous at first, but once I got into the flow of the game I was fine,'' Stewart said.

Dorceus ran for two scores inside the 8-yard line and finished with 66 yards rushing on 13 carries. Jake Elliott kicked a 37-yard and 32-yard field goal in the first quarter for the Tigers.

Hayden Moore threw a 10-yard touchdown pass to Devin Gray early in the fourth quarter for Cincinnati (4-7, 1-6), which gained just 99 yards in the first half and finished with 244 yards of offense. Moore was 23 of 34 for 144 yards and threw two interceptions.

Curtis Akins and Chris Morely intercepted Moore's passes in back-to-back possessions as Memphis bolted to a 27-0 halftime lead.

''It was the same old song,'' Cincinnati coach Tommy Tuberville said. ''I didn't think we'd turn the ball over like we did early.''

TAKEAWAYS

Memphis: Elliot broke the Memphis scoring record held by Stephen Gostkowski of the New England Patriots. Elliot has never missed his 192 extra-point attempts, including four against Cincinnati. . The Tigers entered the game tied for third in the nation with 23 forced turnovers. They forced two against the Bearcats.

Cincinnati: Three quarterbacks have started at least two games. Hayden Moore had his sixth start against Memphis. Gunner Kiel has three starts and Ross Trail two. The quarterbacks have combined for 15 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions. Moore has eight touchdown passes and seven interceptions. Kiel has six scores with two picks. Trail has one TD pass and six interceptions.

BOWL IMPLICATIONS

Memphis is bowl eligible for the third consecutive year. Cincinnati will not get the requisite six wins with one game to play.

ROLE PLAYER

Stewart didn't have any college offers out of high school, and transferred to Memphis from Fort Scott Community College. ''I feel like I've been blessed and wouldn't trade a day. I feel blessed from the way I got here,'' Stewart said. ''Stew prepares every week like he's the starter,'' Dorceus said.'' We went to work.''

UP NEXT

Memphis: The bowl-eligible Tigers host Houston on Friday.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats end their season Friday at Tulsa.

-------------------------------------

Jeremy McNichols powers Boise State past UNLV, 42-25
November 19, 2016

BOISE, Idaho (AP) Jeremy McNichols ran for 206 yards and a career-high four touchdown to help No. 22 Boise State beat UNLV 42-25 on Friday night.

Boise State (10-1, 6-1) kept its Mountain West title hopes alive and reached 10 victories for the second time in three seasons under head coach Bryan Harsin. After passing Western Michigan in the College Football Playoff rankings this week, the Broncos also remain in contention for a Cotton Bowl berth.

The Rebels (4-7, 3-4) lost for fifth time in five tries at Boise State, managing only 302 yards of total offense, their second-lowest output of the season.

UNLV also struggled defensively, unable to bottle up the nation's fifth-leading rusher. McNichols leads the country in scoring with 156 points, 36 more than the next closest player.

After UNLV converted a fumble into a field goal on Boise State's opening possession, the Broncos went on a 19-play, 74-yard drive - their longest of the season - and took a 7-3 lead on quarterback Brett Rypien's 1-yard run.

The Broncos followed that drive up with their shortest after a 73-yard punt return by Cedrick Wilson set up Boise State's offense at the UNLV 6. On the only play of the drive the Broncos ran, McNichols bounced outside and won a footrace to the corner of the end zone for the touchdown, giving Boise State a 14-3 first quarter lead.

That early lead helped set the tone for Boise State as UNLV never really threatened to make the game competitive.

Rypien finished with 109 yards on 10-of-20 passing. Career receiving leader Thomas Sperbeck had five catches for 47 yards in his final regular-season home game.

UNLV's Kurt Palandech passed for 113 yards, completing 10 of 20 passes. He also led the team in rushing with 64 yards.

TAKEAWAYS

UNLV: The Rebels have already topped last season's win total of three games, but they will look to finish strong with a win in their finale next Saturday. With a victory, the Rebels could lock up second place in the West division and set their eyes on getting bowl eligible next year.

Boise State: The Broncos' defense delivered their most dominant performance of the season as the entire team seems to peaking at the right time. In the three games since its last-minute loss on the road at Wyoming, Boise State has committed only one turnover and averaged more than 48 points a game, while limiting opponents to just over 21.

UP NEXT

UNLV: The Rebels host in-state rival Nevada in the regular-season finale for both teams.

Boise State: The Broncos will travel to Air Force for their final regular-season tilt in a must-win game to keep their division title hopes alive.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s best 13 games

Miami scored 85 points in winning its last two games after a 4-game skid; Hurricanes are 3-2 on road, 3-1 as road favorites, with wins on foreign soil by 35-14-20 points- they lost at Va Tech, Notre Dame. Average total in Miami’s road games: 53.8. NC State lost four of last five games, is 5-5 despite being an underdog in only three games- they need one more win to go bowling. Wolfpack is 0-4 this season in games decided by 7 or less points- they’re 3-2 at home, losing to BC by 7 (horrible loss), Florida State by 4. ACC home underdogs are 8-9 vs spread in league play.

Northwestern won six of last nine games with Minnesota, with average total in last four 32.3; Wildcats won three of last four visits to Twin Cities. Northwestern needs one more win to go to a bowl; they’re 3-1 on road with wins at Iowa/Michigan State- they covered five of last six games. Minnesota had 4-game win streak snapped at Nebraska LW; Gophers are 4-1 at home, with only loss 14-7 to Iowa. Northwestern is 5-0 when it scores more than 21 points, 0-5 when it scores less; 7 of 10 Minnesota opponents scored more than 21. Big 14 home teams are 21-26 vs spread in league play this year.

Pitt pulled huge upset at Clemson LW, is now bowl eligible, despite giving up 38.4 pts/game vs I-A opponents; Panthers are 3-1 at home, 0-3 as home favorites, with home wins by 3-16-3 points and a 39-36 loss to Va Tech. Road team won all three Duke-Pitt games, with underdog covering all three, two of which were 51-48/58-55 shootouts. Duke covered its last five games; its last three games were decided by total of 7 points. Blue Devils are 1-3 on road but 3-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 11-10-3 points- they won SU at Notre Dame. ACC home favorites are 11-16 vs spread.

Oklahoma won its last four games with West Virginia, winning 50-49/45-33 in last two visits to Morgantown. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in series. Sooners won their last seven games after a 1-2 start; they’re 3-0 in true road games, 1-2 as a road favorite, with wins on road by 6-7-10 points- they also split pair of neutral field games in Texas. West Virginia won 24-20 at Texas LW in their first game this year as an underdog; WV is 4-0 SU at home this year, 4-4 as home dogs over last decade. Mountaineers held 7 of 9 opponents this season to 21 or less points. Big X home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread this year.

San Diego State won three of last four games with Wyoming, winning 42-38/48-38 in last two visits here. UNLV ran for 401 yards in 69-66 win over Wyoming LW; if Rebels can do that, Aztecs should do more- they ran for 400-474 yards in last two road games, wins at Utah State/Nevada- they ran for 293-400-292 yards in last three games vs Wyoming. San Diego State won its last six games (5-1 vs spread) since mystifying loss at South Alabama; Aztecs allowed 42 points in six Mountain West games (7.0 pts/game). Wyoming scored 37.6 pts/game in its last seven games; they’re 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this season.

Virginia Tech is 7-3 but allowed 536 YR in last two games, getting upset at Ga Tech LW when Tech’s option attack ran for 309 yards. Hokies are 3-1 in true road games, winning 39-36/24-21 in last two, at Pitt/Duke. Notre Dame is 4-6; its last two games were against service academies. Irish are 2-3 at home this year, losing to Duke-Michigan St-Stanford, all of whom are having sub-par years- their home wins are over Nevada/Miami. Irish have not won consecutive games this year; they allowed 549 RY to Navy/Army. ACC road teams are 10-6 vs spread this season in non-conference games.

Baylor lost its last three games after a 6-0 start, allowing 47.3 pts/game; they lost QB Russell to a broken ankle LW. Bears are 2-6 vs spread in last eight games- they allowed 711 rushing yards in last two games. Kansas State has 826 RY in its last three games; Wildcats are 1-3 on road, with only win 31-26 at Iowa State- they’re 5-3 in last eight games as a road favorite. Baylor won its last four games with Kansas State; they covered three of last four tries as an underdog in this series. K-State lost its last four visits to Waco. Big X home underdogs are 8-4 vs spread this year.

Underdogs covered four of last five Colorado-Washington State games, two programs on rise- this is possible preview of Pac-12 title game. Wazzu won its last eight games, after an 0-2 start that included a loss to a I-AA team; Coogs scored 38 pts/game in winning last three road games, last two by 3-32/35-31 scores at ASU/Oregon State. Colorado is 8-2 this year, 9-1 vs spread; they won by 10 in only non-cover. Buffs are 2-1 as home favorites this year, with wins in Boulder by 41-24-10 points. Pac-12 home favorites are 15-12 vs spread in conference play this season. Washington State is 14-4 in its last 18 games as a road underdog.

Stanford won its last six games with arch-rival Cal (5-1 vs spread) wth last four wins all by 13+ points. Cardinal won last three visits to Berkeley, by 21-18-34 points. Stanford won its last three games after a 1-3 midseason slump, running ball for 294.7 yds/game; they’re 4-1 on road this year, with wins by 9-7-24-25 points. Cardinal is 3-0 as a road favorite this year, 16-9 under Shaw. Cal lost its last three games, allowing 45-66-56 points; they’re 3-1 at home this year, with average total of 84.8. Golden Bears are 0-4-1 vs spread this year in games with a double digit spread. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-8 vs spread this season.

Favorites covered seven of last nine Tulsa-Central Florida games, with Tulsa winning five of last six; Golden Hurricane lost three of last four visits to Orlando. Tulsa is 7-3 after losing 42-40 at Navy LW; they’re 2-3 on road, with wins at Fresno (48-41 after trailing 31-0), Memphis (59-30). Average total in their five road games: 75.8. UCF is 6-4 and bowl eligible after being 0-12 LY; Knights are 7-1 vs spread in last eight games, winning 37-6/24-3 last two weeks. UCF is 4-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread; Tulsa is 3-1. AAC home underdogs are 6-7 vs spread this season.

UCLA won three of last four games with USC after a 1-12 series skid before that; last nine series games were all decided by 10+ points. Trojans lost 38-20/38-28 in last two visits here, but USC is on 6-game win streak after their 1-3 start, including big upset at Washington LW. Five of those six USC wins were by 13+ points; Trojans are 2-2 on road, losing at Stanford/Utah, with wins at Arizona/Washington. UCLA needs to wins to go bowling; they’ve lost 4 of last 5 games, are 2-2 vs spread as an underdog this year, 3-2 SU at home, with losses to Stanford/Utah. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-8 vs spread this season.

Home side won all four Oklahoma State-TCU Big X meetings; Cowboys lost 42-9 in last visit here two years ago. Frogs gained 663-676 TY in last two series games; they’re 5-4, need one more win to go bowling. TCU lost last two home games, to Oklahoma/Texas Tech- they’re 0-4 vs I-A teams when allowing more than 23 points. OSU won its last six games, scoring 42.7 pts/game; they’re 2-1 as a dog this year, 2-1 SU on road, beating two Kansas schools, losing at Baylor. TCU ran for 431 yards in its last game, a 62-22 home win over Baylor. Big X home favorites are 9-10 vs spread this season.

LSU-Florida is rescheduled game after hurricane last month; game was originally scheduled to be in Gainesville. LSU won five of last six series games, taking last three by 7-3-11 points. Gators lost last three visits to Baton Rouge by 7-11-30 points. Florida is 7-2 but 1-2 in true road games, losing 38-28 at Tennessee, 31-10 at Arkansas- they won 13-6 at Vandy. LSU won four of last five games after a 2-2 start caused a coaching change. Tigers are 4-1 at home, 2-2 as a home favorite with home wins by 3-35-35-17 points- they covered four of last five games. SEC home favorites are 15-7 vs spread this season.

football picks
Navy Midshipmen, -7



2016 college record: 6-3, plus 81 staubachs

[StarDust Bum]

Florida at LSU
November 18, 2016

Florida (7-2 straight up, 3-5-1 against the spread) can lock up a second straight SEC East title with a victory on Saturday, but that task at Tiger Stadium will be a tall one with six starters out with injuries. The Gators are set to face LSU in Baton Rouge for a second straight year after the Oct. 8 meeting in Gainesville was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew.

As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had LSU installed as a 14.5-point home favorite with a total of 38.5. Gamblers can back the Gators on the money line for a monster +475 payout (risk $100 to win $475).

This is just the second time UF has ben a double-digit underdog since Jim McElwain took over. Florida took the cash in that lone instance, a 29-15 loss to Alabama as a 17.5-point underdog at last year’s SEC Championship Game.

LSU (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS) is off its best performance of the season in Fayetteville, where it took Arkansas behind the woodshed in a 38-10 beatdown as a nine-point road ‘chalk.’ Derrius Guice erupted for a career-best 252 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. He was given extra touches when Leonard Fournette re-aggravated the ankle injury that prompted him to miss three games earlier in the year.

Nevertheless, Fournette still ran for 98 yards and three TDs on 17 attempts. He also had a pair of catches for 44 yards. For the season, Fournette has rushed for 803 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Guice has rushed for a team-best 881 yards and nine TDs, averaging an eye-opening 8.7 YPC on 101 attempts.

This game will feature a pair of former Purdue QBs. LSU’s Danny Etling once lost his job as Purdue’s starting QB to his counterpart on Saturday, UF’s Austin Appleby. Etling has completed 58.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards with a 7/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

He has a pair of future NFL WRs in Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural. Neither wideout gets enough touches, nor did Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham when they were in Baton Rouge. The stats don’t do either player justice, as both have 28 catches apiece. Dupre has a team-high 365 receiving yards and two TDs, while Dural has 280 receiving yards and one TD.

LSU ranks 13th in the nation in total defense and sixth in scoring, allowing only 13.9 points per game. This unit has held five of its last six foes to 10 points or fewer. This group is led by senior LB Kendell Beckwith, who has a team-best 90 tackles to go with six tackles for loss, one sack, one QB hurry and four passes broken up.

The secondary features a pair of All-American candidates in junior safety Jamal Adams and senior CB Tre’Davious White. Adams has recorded 60 tackles, one interception, one fumble recovery, 4.5 TFL’s, one forced fumble, one QB hurry and three PBU, while White has 26 tackles, two interceptions, one pick-six, one fumble recovery, three TFL’s, 0.5 sacks and six PBU.

Florida bounced back from a 31-10 loss at Arkansas by knocking off South Carolina 20-7 as a 13-point home favorite. With the exception of two plays, both turnovers, Appleby looked extremely sharp in his third start of the season against the Gamecocks, who brought a three-game winning streak to The Swamp.

Appleby completed 17-of-21 passes for 201 yards and two TDs. He was intercepted once and fumbled the QB-center exchange when the Gators were at USC’s two. Appleby did the same thing on a second-and-goal play when UF was one yard away from getting ahead of the number at Vanderbilt. The Gators had a 13-6 advantage on the Commodores with less than three remaining when they were laying 10 points.

Unlike Luke Del Rio, who will miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury, Appleby can make plays with his legs. He rushed for 34 yards on six attempts against USC. Jordan Scarlett finished with a career-best 134 rushing yards on 20 carries.

Antonio Callaway had four receptions for 48 yards, while WR Ahmad Fullwood had two catches for 48 yards and one TD on his Senior Day. Callaway had 100 yards on four punt returns despite getting one for a TD called back on a shaky flag.

For the year, Appleby has connected on 65.6 percent of his throws for 671 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. Callaway has 35 receptions for 533 yards, while Brandon Powell has 30 catches for 291 yards and two TDs.

Scarlett has rushed for a team-high 617 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.2 YPC. True freshman Lamical Perine has emerged as the back-up to Scarlett. Perine has rushed for 347 yards and one TD with a 4.9 YPC average. He also has six catches for 103 yards and one TD.

UF’s stop unit is ranked third in the nation in total defense and pass defense. The Gators are fifth in scoring (13.3 PPG) and 11th against the run. However, they will be without four starters at LSU, including their top three tacklers.

Senior LB Jarrad Davis, junior LB Alex Anzalone, senior safety Marcus Maye and senior DE Bryan Cox Jr. are ‘out.’ Anzalone and Maye are done for the season, while Davis (ankle) and Cox (leg) hope to return in the regular-season finale at Florida St.

Davis has 56 tackles, six TFL’s, two sacks, five QB hurries and four PBU, while Anzalone has tallied 53 tackles, four TFL’s, three sacks, six QB hurries and two PBU. Maye has produced 50 tackles, six PBU, one sack, 1.5 TFL’s and one interception.

Kylan Johnson, a redshirt freshman LB, made his first career start vs. South Carolina and responded well. Johnson had seven tackles and one TFL. Also, true freshman LB David Reese had 11 tackles against the Gamecocks.

Florida has been a road underdog just twice on Jim McElwain’s watch, going 0-1-1 ATS. The Gators dropped a 38-28 decision at Tennessee as five-point ‘dogs earlier this year. Also, they lost 35-28 at LSU as seven-point ‘dogs last season.

UF has been a ‘dog or 6.5 points or more three times under McElwain, compiling a 2-0-1 spread record.

I was at Tiger Stadium for last year’s encounter. With the game knotted at 28-28 midway through the fourth quarter, Les Miles called a successful trick play against Florida for the umpteenth time in a row in his 11th meeting against them. It worked – yet again – when the holder lateraled to kicker Trent Domingue who scored on a 16-yard TD run.

Fournette ran for 180 yards and two TDs on 31 carries, while Dupre had four receptions for 115 yards and two TDs. Dural had five catches for 65 yards.

Callaway had three catches for 100 yards and tied the game late in the third quarter with a 72-yard punt return for a TD.

The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Gators, 2-1 in their three previous road assignments. They have seen their games average combined scores of 39.6 points per game.

The ‘under’ has been a steady money maker for LSU, cashing at a 6-1-2 overall clip. The ‘under’ is 4-0-2 in the Tigers’ six home games.

The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back meetings between these schools and is 6-3 in the last nine UF-LSU encounters.

LSU has won three in a row over UF both SU and ATS. The Gators haven’t tasted victory over the Tigers since a 14-6 win at The Swamp in 2012.

The SEC Network will provide the broadcast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Even if UF loses in Red Stick, Tennessee must win Saturday’s home game (and next week’s game at Vandy) vs. Missouri to keep alive its hopes to go to Atlanta for the first time since 2007. CBS will have television coverage from Neyland Stadium at 3:30 p.m. Eastern. Most spots have the Vols favored by 16.5 point with a total of 68.

-- Ole Miss (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) garnered a season-salvaging 29-28 win at Texas A&M last Saturday night. The Rebels, who have been on the wrong end of tight games galore all year, trailed at intermission for the first time all season. However, true freshman QB Shea Patterson, who was making his collegiate debut, rallied his team by throwing a pair of TD passes in the fourth quarter before leading a drive into field-goal range for Gary Wunderlich’s 39-yard game winner with 37 ticks remaining. Patterson threw for 338 yards and rushed for 64 in front of more than 104,000 hostile fans in College Station. Ole Miss will face Vanderbilt in Nashville as a 9.5-point road ‘chalk.’

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in all six of Vandy’s SEC games this year. Each of those contests had 43 points or fewer. The Commodores are 4-0 ATS when catching 9.5 points or more this year. They haven’t lost any SEC games by a double-digit margin. When listed as a home underdog on Derek Mason’s watch, the ‘Dores own a 6-3 spread record.

-- Alabama will take on Chattanooga as a heavy favorite, but the line wasn’t out as of late Friday afternoon. It will certainly be north of 35 when it comes out Friday night or early Saturday morning. Therefore, we should note that the Crimson Tide is an abysmal 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite of 35 points or more.

-- Texas A&M is a 27.5-point home favorite vs. UTSA. The Aggies have failed to cover the number in six straight games. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are 3-1 ATS in four games as double-digit underdogs and the lone non-cover was a brutal bad beat to La. Tech last week. UTSA has won outright as a double-digit ‘dog at Middle Tennessee (45-25) and vs. So. Miss (55-32).

-- Arkansas is a short underdog at Mississippi St. The Hogs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road ‘dog. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 20-13 ATS as home favorites on Dan Mullen’s watch.

-- Kentucky will become bowl eligible with a victory over winless Austin Peay. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven outings.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/04/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/05/2016 26-34-0 43.33% -5700
11/08/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/09/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/10/2016 1-5-0 16.67% -2250
11/11/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/12/2016 23-28-1 45.10% -3900
11/15/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/16/2016 3-1-0 75.00% +950
11/17/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/18/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100

TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 84 - 75- 7 *****

BIG TEN GOY................0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )
MT. WEST GOY..............1 - 0 ( WYOMING ROLLS BIG OVER UTAH ST. )
MAC UNDERDOG GOY.....1 - 0 ( KENT ST. + 21 W.MICHIGAN 37 )
ACC BLOW OUT.............0 - 1 ( CLEMSON -21.5 42 - 43 PITT )
MAC FAVORITE .............1 - 0 ( MIA-OHIO - 10 OVER BUFFALO 35 -24)
SEC BLOW OUT..............1 - 0 ( BAMA -28.5 OVER MISS ST. 51 - 3 )
PAC 12 GOY...................0 - 1 ( USC UPSETS WASHINGTON 26-13 )
BIG 10 DOG..................0 - 1 ( MINNESOTA + 6 LOSES TO NEBRASKA 17 -24 )
PAC 12 BLOW OUT .........1 - 0 ( COLORADO - 17.5 CRUSHES ARIZONA 49 - 24 )
THURS. NIGHT GOY.........0 - 1 ( HOUSTON UPSETS LOUISVILLE 36 -10 )
FRIDAY NIGHT DOG........1 - 0 ( NEVADA 25 + 29 BOISE ST 42 )
FRIDAY NIGHT TOTAL......1 - 0 ( NEVADA /BOISE OVER 64 )

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 291-287-12 50.35% -12350

O/U Picks 103-111-4 48.13% -9550

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 12

Sat – Nov. 19

Connecticut at Boston College, 1:00 PM ET
Connecticut: 6-15 ATSafter playing a conference game
Boston College: 75-52 ATS after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

UL Monroe at Appalachian State, 2:30 PM ET
UL Monroe: 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Appalachian St: 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56

UTEP at Rice, 12:00 PM ET
UTEP: 4-15 ATS after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more
Rice: 28-14 ATS off a road win

Miami Florida at North Carolina State, 12:30 PM ET
Miami FL: 6-0 ATS after a win by 17 or more points
N Carolina St: 10-24 ATS off a road win against a conference rival

Texas Tech at Iowa State, 3:30 PM ET
Texas Tech: 12-3 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games
Iowa St: 6-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

Iowa at Illinois, 12:00 PM ET
Iowa: 9-0 ATS after gaining 75 or less passing yards in last game
Illinois: 1-8 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road

Northwestern at Minnesota, 3:30 PM ET
Northwestern: 32-11 ATS in road games after playing their last game on the road
Minnesota: 18-6 OVER in home games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game

Wisconsin at Purdue, 12:00 PM ET
Wisconsin: 10-2 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Purdue: 2-10 ATS in home games after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Duke at Pittsburgh, 3:00 PM ET
Duke: 13-4 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive unders
Pittsburgh: 1-9 ATS after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game

Tex San Antonio at Texas AM, 12:00 PM ET
Tex San Antonio: 3-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63
Texas AM: 0-10 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

Maryland at Nebraska, 12:00 PM ET
Maryland: 6-0 ATS off a home loss by 14 or more points
Nebraska: 0-6 ATS in home games off a win against a conference rival

Oklahoma at West Virginia, 8:00 PM ET
Oklahoma: 16-6 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games
West Virginia: 19-5 UNDER against conference opponents

Mid Tennessee State at Charlotte, 2:00 PM ET
Mid Tennessee St: 10-2 UNDER off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite
Charlotte: 2-10 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Massachusetts at BYU, 2:00 PM ET
Massachusetts: 11-3 OVER as a road underdog
BYU: 0-6 ATS in home games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game

UL Lafayette at Georgia, 12:00 PM ET
UL Lafayette: 6-0 ATS in road games after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Georgia: 8-20 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread

San Diego State at Wyoming, 3:30 PM ET
San Diego St: 7-0 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival
Wyoming: 10-24 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse

New Mexico at Colorado State, 10:15 PM ET
New Mexico: 6-0 OVER after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Colorado St: 8-1 ATS in games played on turf

Indiana at Michigan, 3:30 PM ET
Indiana: 8-21 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games
Michigan: 10-2 OVER after playing 2 straight conference games

Virginia Tech at Notre Dame, 3:30 PM ET
Virginia Tech: 28-13 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3
Notre Dame: 0-8 ATS in home games off 4 or more consecutive unders

Kansas State at Baylor, 12:00 PM ET
Kansas St: 48-29 ATS off a loss against a conference rival
Baylor: 1-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8

Virginia at Georgie Tech, 12:30 PM ET
Virginia: 6-0 ATS after a loss by 17 or more points
Georgia Tech: 0-6 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Florida State at Syracuse, 3:30 PM ET
Florida St: 11-26 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games
Syracuse: 6-0 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games

Mississippi at Vanderbilt, 8:00 PM ET
Mississippi: 37-20 ATS in games played on turf
Vanderbilt: 14-2 UNDER as an underdog

Texas State at New Mexico State, 4:00 PM ET
Texas St: 6-1 ATS off a home loss by 14 or more points
New Mexico St: 28-47 ATS off a loss against a conference rival

Arizona at Oregon State, 10:30 PM ET
Arizona: 0-6 ATS after playing a conference game
Oregon St: 27-10 ATS after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5

Arizona State at Washington, 7:30 PM ET
Arizona St: 22-38 ATS in road games after playing 3 straight conference games
Washington: 12-3 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31

Washington State at Colorado, 3:30 PM ET
Washington St: 9-1 ATS as an underdog
Colorado: 10-2 OVER in home games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival

Stanford at California, 5:30 PM ET
Stanford: 26-11 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers
California: 12-26 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Southern Miss at North Texas, 5:30 PM ET
Southern Miss: 1-5 ATS against conference opponents
North Texas: 7-3 ATS after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game

Old Dominion at Florida Atlantic, 6:00 PM ET
Old Dominion: 7-0 ATS as a favorite
Florida ATL: 0-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Buffalo at Western Michigan, 3:30 PM ET
Buffalo: 27-46 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games
W Michigan: 8-0 ATS after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game

Marshall at Florida International, 7:00 PM ET
Marshall: 26-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Florida INT: 4-15 ATS after a bye week

Arkansas at Mississippi St, 7:00 PM ET
Arkansas: 10-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival
Mississippi St: 28-46 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game

Hawaii at Fresno St, 7:00 PM ET
Hawaii: 2-9 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Fresno St: 14-3 ATS in home games after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games

South Florida at SMU, 7:00 PM ET
S Florida: 11-1 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
SMU: 2-10 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Tulsa at Central Florida, 8:00 PM ET
Tulsa: 7-0 ATS in road games after playing a conference game
C Florida: 3-6 ATS after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Temple at Tulane, 3:30 PM ET
Temple: 9-2 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Tulane: 1-8 ATS in home games after playing a conference game

Ohio State at Michigan State, 12:00 PM ET
Ohio St: 9-1 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game
Michigan St: 2-9 ATS after playing a game at home

Texas at Kansas, 3:30 PM ET
Texas: 8-1 UNDER in road games after playing 3 straight conference games
Kansas: 5-13 ATS as an underdog

Clemson at Wake Forest, 7:00 PM ET
Clemson: 16-6 ATS in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game
Wake Forest: 13-3 UNDER after 2 consecutive games where they forced 3 or more turnovers

Missouri at Tennessee, 3:30 PM ET
Missouri: 1-8 ATS in road lined games
Tennessee: 3-0 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite

Georgia Southern at Georgia State, 2:00 PM ET
Georgia S: 2-8 ATS in all gamed
Georgia St: 10-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

USC at UCLA, 10:30 PM ET
USC: 9-28 ATS in road games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
UCLA: 29-13 ATS after having lost 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Oklahoma State at TCU, 12:00 PM ET
Oklahoma St: 4-14 ATS after having won 8 or more out of their last 10
TCU: 11-2 ATS after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game

Penn State at Rutgers, 8:00 PM ET
Penn St: 28-14 OVER off a road win against a conference rival
Rutgers: 0-7 ATS after allowing 42 points or more last game

Oregon at Utah, 2:00 PM ET
Oregon: 0-6 ATS when playing with 6 or less days res
Utah: 29-10 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored

Air Force at San Jose State, 10:30 PM ET
Air Force: 13-4 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in 3 straight games
San Jose St: 5-15 ATS as an underdog

Utah State at Nevada, 4:00 PM ET
Utah St: 2-10 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
Nevada: 23-12 UNDER in all lined games

Navy at East Carolina, 4:00 PM ET
Navy: 17-6 ATS in road games after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in 3 straight games
E Carolina: 7-20 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Florida at LSU, 1:00 PM ET
Florida: 29-14 ATS in road games after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers
LSU: 27-46 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 19

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NCAAF Game of the Day: Oklahoma at West Virginia
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The winner of this huge Big 12 showdown will put their name firmly in the playoff picture, while the loser can call it a season.

No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 14 West Virginia Mountaineers (+3.5, 66.5)

The Big 12 hasn't earned must respect from the College Football Playoff committee and rightfully so with Oklahoma losing two of its first three games and Baylor dropping three straight after a 6-0 start. But with a sudden shortage of undefeated and one-loss teams, the winner of Saturday's Big 12 showdown in West Virginia between the No. 8 Sooners and No. 9 Mountaineers could vault itself into the CFP conversation while gaining the inside track to the conference title.

Red-hot Oklahoma, which has won eight straight games, moved up two spots in the CFP rankings to No. 9 while West Virginia is up to 14th. "We're in control of our own destiny right now, and, like I said, it's on to the next one," Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield told reporters. "But it's really exciting to go to Morgantown." Oklahoma, which has won all four meetings since the Mountaineers joined the Big 12 in 2012, is at full strength as running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine played together for the first time in four games last week and each rushed for 100 yards in a 45-24 victory over Baylor. West Virginia bounced back from its only blemish of the season - a 37-20 loss at Oklahoma State on Oct. 29 - with a pair of victories, including 24-20 at Texas last week.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: The Sooners opened as 3-point road favorites and that number has dropped as low as 2.5, before rising to 3.5 and has been sitting there since Thursday. The total hit the board as 67 and has been bet down to 66.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Oklahoma - DT Matthew Romar (questionable, leg), LB Kapri Doucet (questionable, suspension), RB Devin Montgomery (questionable, head)

West Virginia - DL Noble Nwachukwu (probable, leg), DL Xavier Pegues (questionable, shoulder), CB Antonio Crawford (questionable, undisclosed)

WEATHER REPORT: There is a 60 percent chance of light showers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Temperatures will be in the high 30’s with gusty winds from the west ranging from 10-20 mph.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This game is a matchup of strength vs. strength. West Virginia is the better defensive team as a home underdog in this game, but Oklahoma has a substantial offensive edge. The Mountaineers are allowing just 20.6 points per game on 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that average 32.4 ppg and 6.0 yppl). They will now be facing a strong Oklahoma offense that averages 44.2 points per game on 7.6 yards per play this season (versus opponents that allow 29.9 ppg and 5.7 yppl)."

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS, 5-5 O/U): With Mixon (937 yards, six touchdowns) and Perine (575, eight) in and out of the lineup, senior wide receiver and Biletnikoff Award semifinalist Dede Westbrook has been a constant with 68 catches for 1,254 yards and 14 TDs - all tops in the Big 12. Mayfield is also putting together an extraordinary season with a 72 percent completion rate - second in the nation - and 33 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Senior linebacker Jordan Evans recorded nine tackles, two sacks, two interceptions and two pass breakups against Baylor, becoming the first Sooner to record two interceptions and two sacks in a game.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS, 3-6 O/U): The Mountaineers put their eight-game home winning streak in the hands of senior quarterback Skyler Howard, who completes 64.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions while recording a team-high six rushing TDs. Two of his favorite targets are senior wide receiver Daikiel Shorts (14.8 yards per 51 receptions, four touchdowns) and junior wide receiver Shelton Gibson, who averages 20 yards per 35 receptions with six scores. Senior cornerback Rasul Douglas is tied for second in the nation with six interceptions and tied for 21st with 12 passes defended.

TRENDS:

* Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 9-1 in Mountaineers last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 8-2 in Mountaineers last 10 games in November.

CONSENSUS: 57 percent of users are taking the road favorite while 67 percent favour the over in this battle of top 25 teams.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds: Week 12

Washington State is undefeated in Pac-12 play and take its Top 10 offense to take on Colorado and its Top 10 denfense. Buffs currently -6.5.

No.11 Oklahoma State at Texas Christian (-4.5, 70)

* Junior quarterback Mason Rudolph has thrived with 3,384 yards and 24 touchdowns and has been intercepted just four times in 357 attempts. Junior receiver James Washington has a stellar 20.2 average while catching 56 passes for 1,132 yards and nine touchdowns, and freshman Justice Hill paces the ground game with 789 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, senior free safety Jordan Sterns has recorded a team-best 68 tackles and is tied with junior cornerback Ramon Richards for the team lead with three interceptions, while junior defensive tackle Vincent Taylor has a team-high 5 1/2 sacks.

* Coach Gary Patterson considers running back Kyle Hicks to be the team's best player and the junior made Patterson look good by rushing for a career-best 192 yards and five touchdowns in the win over Baylor. Hicks has rushed for 789 yards and 14 touchdowns (12 rushing) and figures to get a lot of work down the stretch due to the way junior quarterback Kenny Hill (2,694 yards and 14 touchdowns against 10 interceptions) has regressed since topping 400 yards in three of the first five games. Senior middle linebacker Travin Howard (team-best 100 tackles) has reached double digits in tackles in six consecutive games while junior safety Nick Orr has four of TCU's seven interceptions.

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma State opened as 4-point road favorites and the line crept up to 4.5 Monday morning. The total opened at 70.5 and has yet to move. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Horned Frogs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 11-2 in Cowboys last 13 conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in Horned Frogs last 7 games on grass.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

No. 2 Ohio State at Michigan State (21.5, 52)

* The Buckeyes are second in the nation in scoring (46.5) and third in scoring defense (12.7) and their whole arsenal was on display against Maryland. J.T. Barrett accounted for four touchdowns, Curtis Samuel found the end zone three times and Mike Weber was merely an afterthought with 93 yards on 12 carries. Defensively, the Buckeyes allowed just 43 yards on 40 rushing attempts and gave up only 4.9 yards per pass attempt as they won by at least 21 points for the seventh time this season.

* The Spartans have split their last six meetings with the Buckeyes, but this is not a typical season for Michigan State. The Spartans won for the first time since Week 2 when they rolled past Rutgers 49-0 last weekend, a victory fueled by three first-half touchdown passes by Tyler O'Connor and a combined 174 rushing yards and three rushing TDs by LJ Scott and Madre London. Scott likely will be the focus of the Buckeyes' defensive scheme as he has run for 120-plus yards in three of the last four games and also is averaging nearly 5.8 yards per carry over that stretch.

LINE HISTORY: The Buckeyes opened as 21.5-point road favorites and were still at -21.5 number on Friday morning. The total opened at 53.5 and has dropped a full point to 52.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Over is 7-1 in Buckeyes last 8 games on grass.
* Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Maryland at No. 18 Nebraska (-13.5, Off)

* The Terrapins are one of three teams in the conference with a pair of players with at least 630 yards rushing, including sophomore Ty Johnson (656) and Lorenzo Harrison (633), who became the first player in school history to rush for a touchdown in each of his first four games earlier in the season. However, Harrison was one of three freshmen (along with backup linebacker Antoine Brooks and backup wide receiver DJ Turner) suspended indefinitely by Durkin on Monday for violating the school's student-athlete code of conduct. Senior quarterback Perry Hills leads the conference in completion percentage (66.7), although his status for this game is in question due to injuries to both shoulders.

* Armstrong completed a career-high (as a starter) 70.4 percent of his passes, totaled 278 yards and accounted for all three touchdowns against Minnesota to give him 90 scores for his career, matching former Heisman Trophy winner Eric Crouch for the most in program history. Senior Jordan Westerkamp (team-high marks of 391 receiving yards and four receiving scores) has 13 receptions in three games since returning from a shoulder injury and can tie former Heisman winner Johnny Rodgers' school mark with a catch in 37 straight games if he can manage at least one reception in each of the team's final three games. Junior safety Kieron Williams sealed the game last week with a late red-zone interception and has picked off five passes this season, tied for the fifth-best total in FBS.

LINE HISTORY: The Cornhuskers opened the week as 14.5-home favorites and by Friday morning that line dropped to 13.5. The total is currently off the board. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Terrapins are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Terrapins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Cornhuskers last 4 home games.
* Under is 7-1 in Cornhuskers last 8 games overall.

No. 7 Wisconsin at Purdue (28, 48)

* Of the four Big Ten teams in the top eight of the CFP rankings, Wisconsin in the only one in the West Division and as such already has a clear path to the Big Ten title game if it can make it past Purdue and Minnesota. The Badgers survived three straight tight games before finally putting their best offensive conference game together behind 363 rushing yards against Illinois. Corey Clement led the way with 123 yards and three touchdowns and went over 100 for the fourth time in the last five games.

* The Boilermakers were only down 14-10 at halftime last week before surrendering 31 points after the break in another blowout loss which dropped the team to 119th out of 128 FBS teams in scoring defense (38.4 points). Purdue surrenders an average of 248.8 yards on the ground after allowing Northwestern to rumble for 253 last week, putting more pressure on quarterback David Blough and the offense. Blough owns 16 interceptions this season and was picked off three times last week before being replaced by freshman Elijah Sindelar, who went 8-of-15 for 80 yards and an interception.

LINE HISTORY: Wisconsin opened as 27.5-point road favorites and held for until Friday morning and got bumped up to 28. The total opened at 49.5 and has been bet down to 48 by Friday morning. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Boilermakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 9-1 in Boilermakers last 10 home games.
* Over is 4-1 in Badgers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Badgers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Texas-San Antonio at No. 25 Texas A&M (-27.5, 57.5)

* The Roadrunners squandered their chance to win the Conference-USA West Division with the loss at first-place Louisiana Tech and now sit two games behind. Quarterback Dalton Sturm did not complete 55 percent of his passes in any of the last four games and was limited to 12-of-22 for 100 yards and no touchdowns last week. Graduate transfer Jared Johnson came on in relief and threw a pair of touchdown passes with one interception.

* Hubenak threw for more than 200 yards in each of the last two games but is not the same kind of running threat as Knight, changing what the Aggies do on offense. "Different guy," Sumlin told reporters of Hubenak. "Not a 4.5 (40-yard dash) guy like Trevor. And he's built little bit differently than Trevor, taking hits and such. Put it that way. Not saying he's not strong, just built differently." Senior Josh Reynolds was Hubenak's favorite receiver last week and finished with four catches for 70 yards and a score - his fifth straight game with a TD catch.

LINE HISTORY: The Aggies opened as massive 26.5-point home favorites and was bet up a full point to 27.5. The total opened at 57.5 and dropped a half point to 57. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Roadrunners are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Aggies are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss.
* Aggies are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Roadrunners last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss.

No. 23 Florida at No.16 Louisiana State (-14.5, 39.5)

* The Gators will likely be missing their three leading tacklers Saturday – linebackers Jarrad Davis (ankle) and Alex Anzalone (arm), along with safety Marcus Maye (arm). More is needed from the offense and quarterback Austin Appleby was outstanding in place of Luke Del Rio (shoulder, knee) last week against South Carolina, completing 17-of-21 for 201 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Antonio Callaway (35 catches, 533 yards) is the top target for Appleby and Jordan Scarlett (617 yards, six TDs) has emerged as the top option on the ground.

* Guice has gained 8.7 yards per carry for a total of 881 with nine touchdowns and the injury-plagued Fournette has run for almost seven per attempt with 803 overall and eight scores. Quarterback Danny Etling went 10-for-16 through the air for 157 yards last week and has completed 58.8 percent of his passes while junior Malachi Dupre is the top receiver with 28 catches for 365 yards. Linebacker Kendell Beckwith has a team-leading 90 tackles for the Tigers, who have allowed a national-least 10 touchdowns overall and just 20 points in the first quarter.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened as 14-point home favorites and briefly dropped to 13.5 before rising to 14.5. The total opened at 37.5 and has been bet up two point to 39.5 View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Gators last 7 games in November.
* Under is 6-1-2 in Tigers last 9 games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Oregon at No. 12 Utah (-14, 70.5)

* Whittingham is right, though to be concerned about the Ducks’ offense, which ranks third in the conference at 39.7 points per game and owns the FBS’ longest current streak of 40 games with 20 or more points. Freshman quarterback Justin Herbert has started the last five games – throwing for 1,362 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions in that span – and his favorite target of late has been 6-foot-6 senior tight end Pharaoh Brown, who has totaled 18 receptions, 252 yards and three TDs over his last three outings. Linebacker Troy Dye is one of five true FBS freshmen leading his team in tackles (8.2 per game), but the defense has been blistered for an average of 45 points and 562.3 yards per outing to rank among the bottom three nationally in both categories.

* Junior quarterback Troy Williams ranks fifth in the Pac-12 with 237.1 yards of total offense per game, but the big story for the Utes’ offense has been senior running back Joe Williams, who has rushed for 864 yards and eight TDs over the last four games since coming out of a four-week, early-season “retirement” in mid-October. Wide receivers Tim Patrick and Raelon Singleton are Troy Williams’ top targets as they’ve combined for 55 receptions, 971 yards and nine scoring grabs. Defensively, Utah is one of the conference’s better units, allowing 23 points and 368.5 yards per game, and is coming off a monster outing last week, recording a school-record 22 tackles for loss – including five sacks for defensive end Hunter Dimick – in a 49-26 win at Arizona State.

LINE HISTORY: The Utes opened as 12-point home favorites and that line jumped up to 14 mid-week. The total opened at 70.5 and hasn’t moved as of Friday morning. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
* Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
* Over is 10-1-1 in Ducks last 12 games following a double-digit loss at home.
* Over is 4-1 in Utes last 5 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Indiana at No. 3 Michigan (-24, 51)

* Devine Redding ran for 108 yards and two touchdowns against Penn State for his fifth 100-yard rushing game of the season, and eighth of his career. Richard Lagow finished 23-of-40 for 292 yards and two touchdowns to move into fifth place on the Hoosiers' single-season passing yards list with 2,866. Safety Tony Fields had a game to remember, recording a career-high eight solo tackles to go along with an interception as Indiana matched a school record with 16 tackles for loss to give it 44 TFLs over its last four outings.

* Speight had his worst game of the season as he was limited to 11-of-26 passing for 103 yards and missed countless deep balls to open receivers before falling hard on his shoulder on the Wolverines' final possession. O'Korn - who has passed for 114 yards and two touchdowns in spot duty this season - threw for 3,117 yards and 28 touchdowns en route to American Athletic Conference Freshman of the Year honors at Houston in 2013 before losing the starting job to Greg Ward Jr. during his sophomore campaign. Linebacker Devin Bush was ejected for targeting against the Hawkeyes but will play on Saturday since the infraction took place in the first half.

LINE HISTORY: The Wolverines opened as 25.5-point home favorites and that line was quickly bet up one point to 26.5 before dropping as low as 23 and settling at 24 as of Friday morning. The total opened at 53.5 and has been fading all week settling at 51 when this cheat sheet was created. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 8-0 in Wolverines last 8 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 15-3 in Wolverines last 18 games overall.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Buffalo at No. 21 Western Michigan (-35, 57.5)

* The Bulls have given up at least 31 points in seven of 10 games and the 24 points they produced last week was second-most behind the 41-20 victory over Akron on Oct. 27. Freshman quarterback Tyree Jackson has thrown for 1,772 yards with nine touchdown strikes and nine interceptions while rushing for 399 – second only to senior running back Jordan Johnson (884 yards, five TDs). Senior tight end Mason Schreck is the top target for Jackson with 50 receptions for 559 yards and four touchdowns.

* Davis, an NFL prospect, was held to one catch last week but still moved within 192 of setting the all-time FBS record for career receiving yards -- currently held by Trevor Insley of Nevada (5,005). Terrell, also in his final college season, has been as efficient as any quarterback in the country by completing 70.3 percent of his passes with 23 TD strikes and one interception. Junior Jarvion Franklin leads the way with 1,152 yards rushing – 134 last week – and senior Fabian Johnson stepped up with a season-high 125 last week.

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 34.5 and has been bet up half point to 35. The total opened at 58.5 and has been bet down to 57. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 5-0 in Broncos last 5 home games.
* Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Bulls are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

No. 17 Florida State at Syracuse (21, 63.5)

* The Seminoles have won four of their last five games with only a three-point loss against Clemson standing in their way of a five-game winning streak heading into this weekend. Dalvin Cook ran for 108 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles, giving him six rushing TDs in his last three games, not to mention at least 100 yards rushing in six of his last seven outings. Deondre Francois passed for three touchdowns and did not throw an interception for the fifth time in his last seven contests.

* The Orange have lost eight of the nine all-time meetings between the teams and appear unlikely to improve that mark unless their offense can wake up. In Dungey's place, Zack Mahoney threw for only 190 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Wolfpack, while the Orange rushing attack mustered a total of 28 yards on 28 carries. Linebacker Parris Bennett already has surpassed 100 tackles on the season following an 11-tackle performance last week, making him the first Syracuse player to eclipse the century mark since 2010.

LINE HISTORY: The Seminoles opened the betting week as 20.5-point road favorites and inched up a half point to 21. The total hit the board at 60.5 and bettors figured that wasn’t enough and have pushed that number up to 63.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
* Under is 14-3 in Seminoles last 17 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 5-0 in Orange last 5 games overall.
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Missouri at No.19 Tennessee (-16, 67)

* The Tigers boasted a prolific passing attack early in the season behind sophomore quarterback Drew Lock, but they have been more balanced of late with the emergence of freshman running back Damarea Crockett. Crockett is averaging 118.4 rushing yards over the past five games and rushed for 154 yards in last week’s win. The defense has improved since head coach Barry Odom resumed play-calling duties, especially when it comes to stopping the run, which was a huge concern during a five-game losing streak.

* The Vols’ hopes are pinned firmly to quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who is responsible for more points (174) than any player in the SEC with 21 passing touchdowns and seven rushing scores. Dobbs is the team’s leading rusher (470 yards) and put up 147 yards and two touchdowns on the ground as the Vols rolled up a season-high 376 yards rushing against Kentucky. The defense consistently has stopped the pass but has been gashed on the ground at times, allowing 350 or more rushing yards three times — including a season-high 443 last week.

LINE HISTORY: The Volunteers opened as 14.5-point home favorites and that line has risen two point to 16.5. The total opened at 66.5 and has been inching up all week and sits at 68 when this sheet was created. View complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Tigers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
* Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-1 in Volunteers last 7 conference games.
* Over is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games following a straight up win.

No. 22 Washington State at No.10 Colorado (-4.5, 60.5)

* During their eight-game run, the Cougars have averaged 46.6 points per outing and their average margin of victory has been 25.8. It starts with junior quarterback Luke Falk who is tops nationally in completion percentage at 73.9, second in passing yards with 3,610 and is tied for fifth with 33 passing touchdowns, but he’ll be without second-leading receiver River Cracraft (53 catches-701 yards-five TDs) as the slot wideout after he suffered a season-ending torn ACL in the third quarter of last Saturday’s 56-21 win at California. Defensive end Hercules Mata’afa (11 tackles for loss) leads a defense which has been the conference’s best against the run at 116.9 yards allowed per game and ranks sixth in the league with 24.3 points surrendered per outing.

* Quarterback Sefo Liufau did match his single-game season high last week with three TD passes in a 49-24 win at Arizona, but the senior also has had more miscues of late, throwing all three of his interceptions this season in the last two games. Liufau is surrounded by a talented cast headed by tailback Phillip Lindsay (third in the Pac-12 with 93.7 rushing yards per game) and speedy wideout Shay Fields (third in the conference with 71 receiving yards per outing). Defensively, outside linebacker Jimmie Gilbert (nine sacks, 11 tackles for losses) and a talented secondary star for a unit which leads the conference in scoring defense (17.9 points allowed), total defense (308.4 yards) and passing defense (176.9 yards).

LINE HISTORY: The Buffaloes opened as 3.5-point home favorites and has risen one point to 4.5. The total opened at 60 and went up as high as 61.5 before fading to 61. View complete line history here.

TRENDS

* Cougars are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 road games.
* Under is 5-0 in Buffaloes last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

No. 24 Stanford at California (10.5, 64.5)

* The Cardinal averaged 20 points a game before erupting for 540 yards of total offense against the Ducks thanks to Chryst’s breakout performance and the duo of McCaffrey and Bryce Love, who have combined for 752 yards rushing in the past three games. Look for another balanced attack in the Big Game against a Cal defense that ranks second-to-last in the FBS against the run, allowing 283.4 yards per game. The Bears boast a strong offense capable of explosive plays but will have to contend with a stellar Stanford frontline led by Solomon Thomas, who has a team-high 46 tackles and seven sacks.

* Quarterback Davis Webb is second in the conference in passing yards (360.1) and total offense (350.2) with 33 touchdown passes, but the Bears lack a solid running game and struggled in the red zone in last week’s 56-21 loss at Washington State. The receiving corps includes junior Chad Hansen, who leads the league in receiving with 75 catches for 979 yards and nine touchdowns, along with impressive freshmen Melquise Stovall and Demetris Robinson. The porous defense has allowed an average of 52.6 points over the last five games with several walk-ons pressed into starting duty following a rash of injuries.

LINE HISTORY: The Cardinals opened the week as 11.5-road favorites and that line dropped to 10.5 on Monday and has remained there all week. The total opened at 63 before quickly jumping to 65 than fading to 64 as of Friday morning. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
* Under is 24-6-1 in Cardinal last 31 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Cardinal are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in California.

No. 4 Clemson at Wake Forest (22.5, 47)

* The Tigers have dodged bullets all season but couldn’t avoid the upset last week despite an ACC-record 580 passing yards and three touchdowns from Deshaun Watson. The offense faltered in the fourth quarter, though, as Watson threw an interception that set up a touchdown to pull the Panthers within 42-40 and star running back Wayne Gallman was unable to convert on fourth down to seal the win. The Tigers’ defense has been dominant at times but gave up 464 total yards last week, including a season-high 308 passing yards.

* The Demon Deacons lean on a strong defense and lead the ACC and rank ninth nationally with a plus-nine turnover margin. They limited Louisville star quarterback Lamar Jackson to 298 total yards — 139 below his season average entering the game — and will need a similar performance to slow down Watson. The offense has not come along as quickly as the defense, as quarterback John Wolford has more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (five) and the ground game has been inconsistent.

LINE HISTORY: The Tigers opened the week as 21.5-point road favorites and the line rose throughout the week to sit at the current number of 22.5. The total opened at 47 and snuck up to 47.5 before settling back at 47. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Demon Deacons last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Wake Forest.

Chattanooga at No.1 Alabama (Off,Off)

* The Mocs lost 52-13 against Florida State last season in their most-recent contest against a major program. Junior quarterback Alejandro Bennifield has fared well against FCS competition and has passed for 2,067 yards and 23 touchdown passes while being intercepted just seven times. Senior defensive end Keionta Davis has eight sacks and ranks second in school history with 28 1/2 and the NFL prospect leads a defensive unit allowing 16.9 points and 276.3 yards per game.

* Freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts has exceeded all expectations while passing for 2,003 yards and 15 touchdowns and running for 735 yards and 11 scores. Sophomore running back Damien Harris holds the team rushing lead with 759 yards but has reached the end zone just once as Hurts has thrived when the Crimson Tide get in scoring range. Alabama ranks second in scoring defense (12.2) and total defense (259.5) and leads the nation in rushing defense (68.8) and has received terrific efforts from senior defensive end Jonathan Allen (seven sacks), senior outside linebacker Tim Williams (team-best eight sacks) and senior outside linebacker Ryan Anderson (team-best 14 1/2 tackles for losses).

LINE HISTORY: The lines for this game are currently off the board. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

No trends available

Alabama A&M at No. 9 Auburn (Off,Off)

* Alabama A&M may be coming off its most rousing win of the season, rallying from a 17-0 first-half deficit to hold a seven-point lead in the closing minute against Jackson State. A fumble by the TIgers into the end zone was recovered by Dylan Hamilton, giving the Bulldogs the narrow victory in which they racked up 433 total yards of offense. Alabama A&M will need to have a running attack like it had against Jackson State, when the team rushed for 290 yards and held the ball for 34:57, to have a chance to slow down Auburn this week.

* The Tigers' coaching staff had no idea White had aggravated his shoulder injury against Georgia because he didn't tell them it happened and no one noticed him favoring the arm in the third quarter. They know now though, and White could likely sit out against Alabama A&M to get himself ready for the Iron Bowl a week later. That means either John Franklin III or Jeremy Johnson would start in White's place, with Franklin the likely replacement with 94 passing yards and 319 rushing yards this season.

LINE HISTORY: The lines for this game are currently off the board. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

No trends available

Arizona State at No. 6 Washington (-27, 64.5)

* A bright spot for the Sun Devils continues to be freshman wide receiver N'Keal Harry, who pocketed his first 100-yard receiving game last weekend. Harry finished with a season-high eight catches for 114 yards and also took a lateral pass and turned it into a remarkable 31-yard touchdown run in which he weaved and juked his way through a half dozen defenders. Washington's injuries on defense might hurt them most in the passing game and particularly when Harry's the target.

* The Huskies have one of the best wide receivers in the Pac-12 in John Ross, who comes in leading the conference in touchdown receptions (15) and second in receiving yards (896). He's been at his best of late as well, combining for 14 catches for 362 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games and there's no reason to believe he'll slow down against the Sun Devils. Dante Pettis, the other fleet-footed wide receiver for the Huskies, is probably looking to bounce back from a sub-par game against USC in which he caught two passes for 22 yards, a week after snaring three touchdowns against California.

LINE HISTORY: The Huskies opened as 25-point favorites and the line has been steadily moving up all week landing at 27 when this cheat sheet was made. The total started the week at 64.5 and went up half point Thursday before fading back to 64.5 Friday morning. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 6-1 in Sun Devils last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
* Over is 4-1 in Sun Devils last 5 games following a straight up loss.
* Sun Devils are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Washington.
* Favorite is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 14 West Virginia (3.5, 66.5)

* With Mixon (937 yards, six touchdowns) and Perine (575, eight) in and out of the lineup, senior wide receiver and Biletnikoff Award semifinalist Dede Westbrook has been a constant with 68 catches for 1,254 yards and 14 TDs - all tops in the Big 12. Mayfield is also putting together an extraordinary season with a 72 percent completion rate - second in the nation - and 33 touchdowns against seven interceptions. Senior linebacker Jordan Evans recorded nine tackles, two sacks, two interceptions and two pass breakups against Baylor, becoming the first Sooner to record two interceptions and two sacks in a game.

* The Mountaineers put their eight-game home winning streak in the hands of senior quarterback Skyler Howard, who completes 64.5 percent of his passes with 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions while recording a team-high six rushing TDs. Two of his favorite targets are senior wide receiver Daikiel Shorts (14.8 yards per 51 receptions, four touchdowns) and junior wide receiver Shelton Gibson, who averages 20 yards per 35 receptions with six scores. Senior cornerback Rasul Douglas is tied for second in the nation with six interceptions and tied for 21st with 12 passes defended.

LINE HISTORY: The Sooners opened as 3-point road favorites and throughout the week was up and down before settling at 3.5. The total opened at 67 and has been bet down half a point to 66.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
* Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
* Under is 4-1 in Sooners last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 8-2 in Mountaineers last 10 games in November.

No. 8 Penn State at Rutgers (28, 57)

* McSorley threw for 332 yards – his third 300-yard day of the season - and two TDs and added a third score on the ground against the Hoosiers, and his 15.9 yards per completion is tops in FBS. Barkley leads the Big Ten in rushing (111.3 per game), all-purpose yards (142.1) and total touchdowns (15), and his 13 rushing TDs are the most for a Nittany Lion since Larry Johnson had 20 in 2002. The Lions' much-improved defense surrendered 454 yards to Indiana, but recovered five fumbles, including a nine-yard scoop-and-score by defensive end Torrence Brown.

* It’s been a tough season for Ash, whose troops have been outscored 290-73 in conference contests, including a combined 185-0 by Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. Giovanni Rescigno (52.8 completion percentage, five TDs, five interceptions), who has started the last three games over Chris Laviano (48.3, five TDs, two interceptions), was 6-of-16 for 40 yards and two interceptions against the Spartans. Sophomore linebacker Deonte Roberts picked up a career-high 17 tackles last week and ranks eighth in the conference with 9.1 tackles per Big Ten game.

LINE HISTORY: The Nittany Lions opened as massive 27-point road favorites and that wasn’t enough as the line has been bumped up to 28. The total opened at 57.5 and that line has been faded down one point to 56.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Nittany Lions are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
* Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 8-2 in Nittany Lions last 10 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Scarlet Knights last 5 games following a ATS loss.

No. 13 Southern California at UCLA (13.5, 52.5)

* The offensive highlights by the Trojans have definitely out-shined what the defense has accomplished, and no aspect has been more impressive lately than the USC run defense, which has surrendered a combined 102 yards on 57 carries in the last two games. Porter Gustin had two sacks against Washington and the sophomore defensive end continues to be a rising force for the Trojans, and sophomore defensive tackle Rasheem Green contributed a sack and broke up two passes. Another area where USC should have the advantage over the Bruins are specials teams, as the Trojans lead the conference in punt return average and kickoff coverage.

* The Bruins have had a 1,000-yard rusher three of the last four seasons, but may not have a 500-yard rusher in 2016. Soso Jamabo leads the team with 308 rushing yards on 79 carries, but has been handed the ball less than 10 times in six of the last seven games. Bolu Olorunfunmi has 254 yards on the season, and might have the best shot at 500 yards, considering he's coming off his best performance of the season, rushing for 65 yards on eight carries, but even he took a backseat last weekend to Jalen Sparks, who received 10 carries but only turned those into 24 yards.

LINE HISTORY: The Trojans opened as 10.5-road favorites against their crosstown rival and that line has been steadily rising all week resting at 13.5 Friday morning. The total opened at 52 and has been bumped half point to 52.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:
* Trojans are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 games overall.
* Under is 6-1-1 in Bruins last 8 games in November.
* Under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in UCLA.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 19

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UTEP at RICE 12:00 PM

RICE -2.5

OKST at TCU 12:00 PM

TCU -6.5*****

O 69.5 *****

WIS at PUR 12:00 PM

WIS -27.5 *****

O 48.5 *****

OSU at MSU 12:00 PM

OSU -20.0

IOWA at ILL 12:00 PM

IOWA -10.0

ULL at UGA 12:00 PM

UGA -21.5 *****

KSU at BAY 12:00 PM

KSU +1.5

O 59.5

UTSA at TAM 12:00 PM

UTSA +26.0

U 57.0

MD at NEB 12:00 PM

NEB -12.0 *****

MIA at NCST 12:30 PM

MIA -2.5 *****