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Big 12 Report - Week 12
November 15, 2016


2016 BIG 12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Baylor 6-3 3-3 2-7 2-7

Iowa State 2-8 1-6 6-4 6-4

Kansas 1-9 0-7 4-6 4-6

Kansas State 5-4 3-3 3-6 4-5

Oklahoma 8-2 7-0 4-6 5-5

Oklahoma State 8-2 6-1 6-4 7-3

Texas 5-5 3-4 6-4 4-6

Texas Christian 5-4 3-3 2-7 5-4

Texas Tech 4-6 2-5 7-3 5-5

West Virginia 8-1 5-1 4-5 3-6


Kansas State at Baylor (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

K-State heads down to Baylor looking for that all-important sixth victory and bowl eligibility, and they'll face a team which just lost its starting quarterback. QB Seth Russell suffered a gruesome left ankle fracture which required season-ending surgery, so true freshman Zach Smith will take the reins of the offense. The Bears are a 2 1/2-point underdog as of Wednesday morning, and Smith is a bit of an unknown entering the game. He misfired on nine of his 15 attempts last week, but posted 144 yards and a touchdown, too. K-State is 1-4 ATS in their past five road games and 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning overall record. While Baylor is 29-12 ATS in their past 41 home games, they have covered just once in the past five league games with Russell, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five overall. The home team is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six and the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings overall.

Oklahoma State at Texas Christian (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m.)

TCU hosts OK State looking to become bowl eligible in mid-November. In recent seasons, TCU has not only been eligible for a bowl by now, they have been in the playoff conversation. OK State already has eight victories, and they're looking to improve their bowl possibility. They enter as a four-point underdog as of Wednesday morning. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning overall record, while the Horned Frogs are 1-5 ATS in their past six league games and 0-5 ATS in their past five in Fort Worth.

Texas Tech at Iowa State (FOX Sports 1, 3:30 p.m. ET)

Texas Tech looks to keep its bowl hopes alive in Ames, and it won't be easy despite Iowa State's 2-8 overall record. The Cyclones have been a tough out this season, even for good teams, going 4-0 ATS in their past four home games and 6-2 ATS in their past eight overall. They're also 5-2 ATS in their past seven Big 12 outings. The Red Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their past four against teams with a losing overall record, 5-1 ATS in their past six on the road and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 league games. In this series the road team has covered four of the past five. The Red Raiders enter the week as a field goal favorite, and that line is holding steady as of Wednesday morning.

Texas at Kansas (ABC or ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)

The Longhorns look for bowl eligibility, and they find it in Lawrence. Texas is up to a 23 1/2-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The Longhorns have had difficult on the road in recent seasons, going 3-7 ATS in their past 10 away from Austin. The Jayhawks are winless against FBS teams this season, and they're just 7-17 ATS in their past 24 overall, 5-13 ATS in their past 18 league games and 3-10 ATS in their past 13 against Texas. The 'under' has cashed in each of the past four meetings in Lawrence, and four of the past five meetings overall in this series. The under is also 23-9 in the past 32 league games for Texas.

Oklahoma at West Virginia (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown will be rocking Saturday night when Oklahoma pays a visit in what is shaping up as a de facto conference championship game. Oklahoma enters the game with two losses and no hopes of the four-team playoff, but they are unbeaten inside the Big 12. The road hasn't been kida to Oklahoma, however, at least in terms of ATS. They have covered just one of their past five on the road. The Mountaineers are 4-11 ATS in their past 15 against teams with a winning overall record, though, and 6-20 ATS in their past 26 at home against teams with a winning road mark.While trends lately point to the under, the over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series. The under is an impressive 13-4 in the past 17 at home for West Virginia, and 19-7 in their past 26 conference tilts. The over is 13-6-1 in Oklahoma's past 20 road outings, but 4-1 in their past five overall and 4-1 in their past five league outings.

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Pac-12 Report - Week 12
November 16, 2016

2016 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 2-8 0-7 1-9 6-4

Arizona State 5-5 2-5 5-5 6-4

California 4-6 2-5 4-6 7-3

Colorado 8-2 6-1 9-1 4-6

Oregon 3-7 1-6 1-8-1 7-3

Oregon State 2-8 1-6 7-3 5-5

Southern California 7-3 6-2 6-4 2-8

Stanford 7-3 5-3 6-4 3-7

UCLA 4-6 2-5 4-6 4-5-1

Utah 8-2 5-2 6-4 6-4

Washington 9-1 6-1 5-5 8-2

Washington State 8-2 7-0 6-4 6-4


Oregon at Utah (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Oregon is no longer eligible for a bowl, but they still remain a danger for Utah, especially due to their high-octane offense. Oregon has rolled up 32 or more points in seven of the past eight games. Their problem hasn't been on offense, but it's their inability to stop people on defense. Oregon has allowed 35 or more points in eight of their 10 outings, and they're just 1-8-1 ATS overall. For Utah, they have covered three in a row, and six of their past eight. They emasculated Oregon last season 62-20 in Eugene, and they're hoping to do the same this season. Utah is a 12-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The 'over' cashed in that game for Utah, and the over is 3-0 in their past three and the over is 6-2 in their past eight outings while going 9-1 in Oregon's past 10 league games and 6-1 in their past seven overall.

Washington State at Colorado (FOX, 3:30 p.m.)

Thanks to Washington's loss last week against USC, the Washington State Cougars ascended to the top of the North Division standings. The Cougars still have the Huskies on the schedule in the Apple Cup, their annual rivalry, but they certainly cannot look past the 10th-ranked Buffaloes in Boulder this weekend. Colorado is a 4-point favorite as of Wednesday morning. The Buffaloes are an impressive 9-1 ATS in 10 games this season. Washington State is 9-1 ATS in their past 10 against teams with a winning overall record, and 15-5 ATS in 20 games overall dating back to last season. They're also 7-3 ATS in their past 10 away from the Palouse. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings in this series, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six battles.

Stanford at California (Pac-12 Network, 5:30 p.m. ET)

It's time for the 118th installment of the 'Big Game', and everyone remembers in 1982 when the Stanford band came on the field during 'The Play'. That won't be a problem in Berkeley this season, as the Stanford band has had a travel ban all season and they are not allowed to travel across the bay for this rivalry game. Stanford's offense will be there, however, and they got well last week at Oregon in a 52-27 victory. After struggling through mid-October, the Cardinal have come alive over the past three games averaging 37.3 points per game (PPG). The 'over' for Stanford last week was their first since Oct. 8, a span of five games. Cal is on a three-game slide and they need to win this week and never week against UCLA to qualify for a bowl game. Cal is 1-4 ATS in their past five games, but they are 3-1 ATS in four home games.

Arizona State at Washington (FOX, 7:30 p.m.)

The Huskies look to bounce back after last weekend's setback against USC, and Washington is expected to recover since they're installed as 26 1/2-point favorites as of Wednesday morning. AZ State is on quite the slide, opening the season 5-1 SU, but they have dropped four in a row and need a win this week or next week at rival Arizona to become bowl eligible. The Sun Devils are 1-3 ATS in their past four games, and 0-4 ATS in four road games this season. Washington is also 1-3 ATS in their past four games overall, and last weekend's loss was the first 'under' after a run of six straight 'over' results. The over is 8-2 in 10 games overall for U-Dub. The over has cashed in three in a row for the Sun Devils, thanks mostly to their flagging defense which has allowed an average of 46.7 PPG in the past three outings.

Southern California at UCLA (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)

Years ago the battle of Los Angeles used to be a highly anticipated rivalry game on the national level. Whether it is USC or UCLA not playing at a top level, this game has taken a backseat to some of the other rivalries on the college football schedule. But this is a very heated game on the gridiron, regardless of records, as all of these kids have a deep knowledge of each other from playing against each other, sometimes growing up together, etc. It sounds rather cliche', but you really do need to toss out the record in games like this. Clay Helton lead the Trojans to a giant road win at Washington last weekend, shaking up the CFP, and they are installed as a 10 1/2-point favorite for this one. USC is 4-0 ATS in their past four conference games, but 2-6 ATS in their past eight on the road. Of course, last weekend's game was in Seattle, so that trend proved meaningless. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five in this series, and the Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to the Rose Bowl. Can they prove that trend meaningless, too?

Arizona at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 10:30 p.m.)

Two cellar-dwelling 2-8 clubs take the field at Reser Stadium in Corvallis Saturday night. While Arizona has been in the tank, Oregon State has actually been pretty competitive and a strong play at the betting window. Arizona heads into this game 3-13 ATS in their past 16 dating back to last season, 0-6 ATS in their past six conference games and 0-6 ATS in their past six road games. Oregon State is 4-0 ATS in their past four at home, 5-1 ATS in their past six conference tilts and 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. The 'over' has been the overwhelming trend for both sides lately, going 5-1 in Arizona's past six road games and 7-2 in their past nine conference battles. The over is 7-3 in Oregon State's past 10 league outings and 5-2 in their past seven aganst teams with a losing record. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings in Corvallis, and 4-1 in the past five in this series. The Wildcats are 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Corvallis while the Wildcats are just 3-12 ATS in the past 15 meetings overall.

[StarDust Bum]

WEDNESDAY, NOV. 16

Matchup Skinny Edge

BALL STATE at TOLEDO...Ball fading, no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 this season. Though Cards are 4-1 vs. line away TY. Ball had covered three straight in series prior to LY. Rockets 3-2 laying DD TY, 6-2 in role since LY.
Toledo, based on recent trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN... Eagles now 8-1 vs. line last nine TY! NIU surging a bit itself, 3-1-1 vs. line last 4 TY, also 8-1 vs. spread last nine as MAC visitor.
Slight to EMU, based on recent trends.

THURSDAY, NOV. 17

Matchup Skinny Edge

LOUISVILLE at HOUSTON... UH won LY at Papa John’s 34-31, and Cougs 7-0-1 as dog since 2014, 11-1-1 since 2013. Though UH no covers last 5 TY and 0-4-1 vs. line at TDECU Stadium. Just 5-12-1 vs. line at new stadium since 2014. Petrino has only covered 2 of last 6 TY.
Slight to Houston, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at TROY...Red Wolves rolling again with wins and covers last four TY, they also closed fast in 2015 when covering 6 of last 7. Ark St 23-9 vs. spread last seven games of reg season since 2012. Also 5-1 last six as Sun Belt dog.
Arkansas State, based on recent trends.

FRIDAY, NOV. 19

Matchup Skinny Edge

MEMPHIS at CINCINNATI ...Tuberville 1-7 vs. line last eight TY, on 3-12 spread skid last 15.
Memphis, based on recent Cincy woes.

UNLV at BOISE STATE ...Boise no covers last eight as blue carpet chalk! Rebs just 2-6 vs. spread last 8 away, however.
Slight to UNLV, based on Boise blue carpet chalk woes.

[StarDust Bum]

SATURDAY, NOV. 20

Matchup Skinny Edge

UCONN at BOSTON COLLEGE... UConn a little better vs. spread on road TY (1-2-2 vs. line) than recent home marks. Diaco only 9-24-2 vs. spread since arriving at UConn in 2014. But BC only 8-14-1 vs. line last 23 on board and 1-9 last 10 vs. spread at Chestnut Hill.
Slight to UConn, based on BC woes.

ULM at APPALACHIAN STATE...ULM 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, but has covered last 2. App has failed to cover its last four at Boone.
Slight to ULM, based on team trends.

UTEP at RICE...Bailiff has won and covered 4 of last 5 vs. UTEP including seven straight series covers at home! Though Owls only 6-12-1 last 19 on board since early 2015.
Rice, based on series trends.

MIAMI-FLA at NC STATE...Richt had dropped 4 in a row SU and vs. line prior to last 2 wins. Heels 5-1 vs. spread at home TY.
NC State, based on recent trends.

TEXAS TECH at IOWA STATE...Red Raiders have covered last 5 on Big 12 road. Also 4-0 SU, 3-1 vs. line last 4 vs. ISU. Cyclones have covered 6 of last 8 TY, however, and last four at Ames.
Slight to Iowa State, based on recent trends.

IOWA at ILLINOIS...Iowa 3-5 vs. line last 8 TY, only 2-2 on road after 13-2 spread mark as visitor prior. Lovie only 1-4 vs. line last five TY at home, but that W was in most-recent vs. Mich State.
Iowa, based on extended trends.

NORTHWESTERN at MINNESOTA...Cats 5-1 vs. line last six TY and last 5 as visitor as well. Minnesota only 1-5 vs. spread at home TY.
Northwestern, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN at PURDUE...Chryst 8-2 SU and vs. line TY, 10-2 last 12 since late LY. Also covers last seven away from Camp Randall, and covers 9 of last 10 vs. Purdue. Boilermakers 1-7 vs. points last 7 at Ross-Ade, 3-15 last 18 as home dog.
Wisconsin, based on team and series trends.

DUKE at PITT...Cutcliffe 17-5 last 22 as dog after UNC upset. Dog team has covered last three meetings. Panthers 2-7 vs. spread last 9 at home, 0-4 TY as home chalk.
Duke, based on team trends.

UTSA at TEXAS A&M...UTSA 3-2-1 vs. line as dog. Ags no covers last five TY (0-5-1), 5-11-1 vs. points last 16 as Kyle Field chalk.
UTSA, based on team trends.

MARYLAND at NEBRASKA...Durkin only 1-5 vs. line last six TY in debut season for Terps. Also no covers last four on road. Riley on 9-4-1 spread run since late LY but just 4-6-1 as Lincoln chalk since LY.
Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA at WEST VIRGINIA...Stoops 4-0 SU vs. Holgorsen since WVU entered Big 12 and Sooners covers last 2 in series. Though OU no back-to-back covers yet TY and just 1-4 vs. spread away from home. Holgorsen was 0-3 as dog LY and only 2-5 vs. number last seven TY despite sparkling SU mark.
Slight to Oklahoma, based on team trends.

MTSU at CHARLOTTE...Charlotte has covered alst four as dog TY! Only one cover last seven TY (1-4-2) for Blue Raiders.
Charlotte, based on team trends.

UMASS at BYU...UMass has covered last three TY and is 3-1 as road dog with some good covers in the mix. Sitake 7-3 vs. line TY though Cougs are 0-3 as home chalk.
UMass, based on team trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at GEORGIA...Kirby Smart 0-2 as home chalk TY, Bulldogs 2-7 last 9 in role.
Slight to ULL, based on recent trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at WYOMING...SDSU 15-2 vs. line last 17 MW games, Wyo 5-1 vs. line last six TY. But Aztecs 7-1 vs. spread last 8 MW road and blasted Wyo LY at Qualcomm.
Slight to SDSU, based on extended trends.

NEW MEXICO at COLORADO STATE...Davie is 0-4 vs. line against CSU since 2012. Rams 7-1-1 vs. line last nine TY.
Colorado State, based on series trends.

INDIANA at MICHIGAN...For all of the Wolverine hype, note Harbaugh just 7-9 last 16 vs. spread in reg. season. Also just 2-3 vs. spread last 5 at home TY and 2-4 last six overall vs. number. IU 7-2 last nine as DD dog.
Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at NOTRE DAME...Irish 4-7 last 11 and 5-9 last 14 vs. number. Fuente only 4-4 vs. line as chalk TY.
Slight to Virginia Tech, based on recent trends.

KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR...Bill Snyder has covered 4 of last 6 in series. Grobe only 2-7 vs. line TY and Bears 3-12 vs. number last 15 reg.-season games.
Kansas State, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at GEORGIA TECH... UVa 17-8 as dog since 2014. But home team is 5-0-1 vs. line last six meetings.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on series trends.

FLORIDA STATE at SYRACUSE... FSU yet to cover back-to-back games this season. Home team has covered last three meetings. Jimbo just 5-5 as visiting chalk since 2014. Cuse 3-6 as dog TY.
Slight to Syracuse, based on team and series home trends.

OLE MISS at VANDERBILT...Dores have covered 4 of last 6 meetings, and Derek Mason 4-1 as home dog since LY.
Slight to Vandy, based on recent trends.

TEXAS STATE at NEW MEXICO STATE.. Could be rare chalk role for NMSU, 2-2 in role since 2013. Ags 3-0 vs. points in Las Cruces TY. TSU 3-2 vs. line away TY for Withers after 0-6 spread mark away for Fran LY.
New Mexico State, based on team trends.

ARIZONA at OREGON STATE...Rich-Rod only 1-11 last 12 on board. OSU 5-1 vs. line last six TY, and three straight Ws at Corvallis.
Oregon State, based on recent trends.

ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON...Note ASU’s non-stellar 0-4 spread mark on road TY. Graham has won and covered last three years vs. Huskies, however.
Washington, based on ASU road negatives.

WASHINGTON STATE at COLORADO...Note that Leach on 16–6 spread uptick since LY, while MacIntyre 9-1 vs. spread TY and 14-3 last 17 since mid 2015. Leach also 9-1 last ten as dog.
Slight to WSU and Leach, based on extended dog marks.

STANFORD at CAL...Big Game! Cal has lost six straight Big Games, only one cover in that stretch. Bears 5-11 vs. line last 16 reg.-season games. Tree’s best role this season has been on road, where it is 4-1 vs. line, and 9-2 last eleven.
Stanford, based on series trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at NORTH TEXAS... UNT 5-3-1 vs. line last nine this season, USM no covers last six or 8 of last 9 TY.
North Texas, based on recent trends.

ODU at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...ODU has covered six of last seven TY. FAU 6-14-1 last 21 on board, 2-11 last 13 vs. spread as host!
Old Dominion, based on recent trends.

BUFFALO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Bulls on 3-11 spread slide since mid 2015. WMU 24-12 vs. number since 2014.
Western Michigan, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at FIU...Fading Marshall 4-6 vs. line TY. Herd is 2-2 as dog, however. FIU 4-2 vs. line under Ron Cooper, though Golden Panthers 4-9-1 last 14 on board.
Slight to Marshall, based on FIU woes.

ARKANSAS at MISSISSIPPI STATE..Bielema 5-1 vs. line as visitor since LY. Hogs have covered 3 of last 4 vs. MSU.
Arkansas, based on team trends.

HAWAII at FRESNO STATE...Rolovich was 4-1 vs. line away until running into Aztecs. FSU had covered four straight TY before flat-lining at CSU.
Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at SMU...USF 65-3-1 vs. line TY and 14-4-1 last 19 reg.-season games, including 38-14 romp over Ponies LY. SMU improved 7-3 vs. line TY though just 7-9 as dog since LY.
USF, based on team trends.

TULSA at UCF...Tulsa has covered last five TY and now 10-2 vs. points away from home since LY for Montgomery. Though Scott Frost has forged quite a turnaround at UCF with 8-2 spread mark TY.
Slight to Tulsa, based on team trends.

TEMPLE at TULANE...Owls have covered nine straight TY and Rhule now 32-16 vs. spread with Temple since 2013. Wave no covers five of last eight TY.
Temple, based on team trends.

OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE...Dantonio 3-8 last 11 vs. line, 8-16 last 24 on board. Revenge for Buckeyes after 17-14 home loss LY. Dantonio has won 3 of last 4 SU vs. Urban, but not same Spartans TY.
Ohio State, based on MSU negatives.

TEXAS at KANSAS... Horns dominating this series as most have lately vs. KU. Recent numbers are DD wins and covers last three years. Jayhawks just 7-15 vs. line since LY for Beaty.
Texas, based on team and series trends.

CLEMSON at WAKE FOREST...Wake has played Clemson tough, covering last two meetings. Clawson 10-3 last 12 as dog, though Deacs just 2-4 vs. spread last six as host. Dabo just 4-8 as visiting chalk since 2014.
Wake Forest, based on team trends.

MISSOURI at TENNESSEE...Ugh! Tigers no SU wins last 11 SEC games. Mizzou no covers last five TY, though Butch only 2-3 vs. line at home TY.
Slight to Tennessee, based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE...Ga So 2-8 vs. spread TY, and was routed at home by GSU LY. State 12-4-1 vs. line last 17 reg.-season games but 4-6-1 last 11 at mostly-empty Georgia Dome.
Slight to Georgia State, based on team trends.

USC at UCLA...Bruins had won three straight in series prior to LY’s 40-21 Trojan win. Mora 4-8 last 12 vs. line. Helton on 6-game SU win streak and 5-1 vs. line those, though Troy 2-7 vs. spread last 9 away from Coliseum.
USC, based on recent trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TCU...Gundy 3-1 SU and vs. line vs. Patterson since 2012. Frogs just 2-7 vs. spread TY and 0-5 at Fort Worth.
Oklahoma State, based on recent and series trends.

PENN STATE at RUTGERS...James Franklin really rolling with covers last five and 5-0-1 last six (all SU wins). Penn State did not cover all six away from home LY but is 3-1 vs. spread away TY.
Penn State, based on recent trends.

OREGON at UTAH...Utes destroyed Ducks LY 62-20. Oregon only 1-10-1 vs. line last 12 on board and no covers last five away from Eugene. Utes have covered last three at home TY.
Utah, based on recent trends.

AIR FORCE at SAN JOSE STATE...Caragher covers last two and four of last six TY. But Spartans just 16-22 last 38 on line.
Slight to Air Force, based on team trends.

UTAH STATE at NEVADA...Utags 3-12 vs. spread last 15 on board and 1-4 last five as road chalk. Pack 2-8 vs. spread TY.
Slight to Nevada, based on USU woes.

NAVY at EAST CAROLINA...ECU 1-6-1 vs. line last eight TY. Mids 14-6-1 last 21 on board.
Navy, based on team trends.

FLORIDA at LSU...McElwain 0-3 vs. line as visitor TY. Tigers have won and covered last three years in series. Orgeron now 11-4 vs. line as interim coach since 2013 at SC and LSU. Tigers 11-5-1 as Baton Rouge chalk since 2014, 6-2-1 last 9 as SEC home chalk.
LSU, based on team and series trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Louisville at Houston
November 16, 2016


Early in the season many thought this late season non-conference matchup between Houston and Louisville would have huge national implications.

Louisville fell short against Clemson to sit outside of the ACC’s championship picture and Houston’s season has unraveled after grabbing headlines in the first month of the season.

Both teams still have a lot at stake in this intriguing Thursday night ESPN battle to kick off a big college football weekend.

Matchup: Louisville Cardinals at Houston Cougars
Venue: TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 17, 8:00 PM ET
Line: Louisville -14, Over/Under 68
Last Meeting: 2015, Houston (+13½) 34, at Louisville 31

Coming off a 13-1 campaign with an AAC championship and a Peach Bowl win over Florida State expectations were very high for a Houston squad that was almost universally projected to be the top ‘Group of 5’ squad nationally looking for a Cotton Bowl spot and they were considered an outside threat at even making the College Football Playoff. The Cougars lived up to that billing early in the season with a big win over Oklahoma in the opening weekend and then won at Cincinnati in primetime to open the conference season in what looked like one of the most important games of the AAC season.

With a 5-0 start Houston was already ranked #6 in the AP Poll and it seemed to be a foregone conclusion that the Cougars would run away with the AAC title meaning this November non-conference game with Louisville would determine whether or not Houston could potentially get the call to an even bigger stage in the bowl season.

The Cougars were stunned with a turnover-filled performance at Navy in early October with a 46-40 result and in an instant almost all of the season goals went up in smoke as Navy was now the team to beat in the AAC West. Houston would go on to lose again at SMU with a shocking 38-16 result to effectively end any hopes of winning the division title. At 8-2 the Cougars are still having a fine season but two difficult games remain with this non-conference test vs. Louisville and next week’s finale at Memphis.

Senior quarterback Greg Ward, Jr. opened the season as a potential Heisman Trophy sleeper and his great game vs. Oklahoma made that look like a serious possibility. He missed the game with Lamar with a shoulder injury and that injury was aggravated in last week’s win over Tulane for Houston’s homecoming. Ward has been cleared to play this week but his back-up Kyle Postma was also injured last week and has been ruled out for the season as freshman D’Eriq King will be next in line if Ward has any setbacks.

The other big storyline for Houston is head coach Tom Herman, who early in the season was universally acclaimed as the top major conference head coaching candidate with last season’s success in his first season in Houston and the great start to this season. Herman certainly feels like a long shot to be back with the Cougars next season and rumors of taking over at Texas this off-season seem to have some traction. That has possibly been a distraction for the team in what has been a disappointing run in the middle of the season with the Cougars riding a 0-5 ATS run in the last five games.

Houston is 5-0 S/U at home this season not counting the opener vs. Oklahoma that was played in Houston but at NRG Stadium. The Cougars went 8-0 S/U at home last season but that run will be put to a major test Thursday night. Last season Houston faced Louisville in the second week of the season and got the upset posting 462 yards with great balance and taking advantage of four Louisville turnovers while also getting a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown in the third quarter. That game also came off a very tough opening loss for the Cardinals who played tight with then #6 ranked Auburn with Louisville also looking at a huge ACC opener with Clemson coming up the following Thursday night as the scheduling situation may have helped spark the upset in what clearly was a huge game for Houston.

This season Louisville opened ranked #19 in the preseason AP poll but was considered to be a clear step behind Florida State and Clemson in the ACC Atlantic picture. The Cardinals scored 132 point in the first two games of the season vs. marginal competition and then made a loud statement in the ACC opener crushing then #2 ranked Florida State 63-20. That win propelled the Cardinals to #3 in the AP Poll and Lamar Jackson jumped onto the Heisman Trophy shortlist.

Louisville used three different quarterbacks last season and through some ups-and-downs Jackson emerged as the best option, providing a great threat on the ground to offset inconsistent results in the air. After starting last season 0-3 Louisville wound up 8-5 closing the season with a Music City Bowl win over Texas A&M. Few saw the huge 2016 season from Jackson coming as he was once a 100/1 candidate and now 1/50 is a common price in what is likely to be one of the least surprising Heisman votes in several years. Jackson has rushed for over 1,300 yards with 19 touchdowns while throwing for 27 more though he is completing just 58 percent of his passes and has had some inconsistent stretches.

Louisville’s schedule has been very weak overall and as such the 9-1 Cardinals find themselves on the outside looking in for the current College Football Playoff rankings that were released Tuesday night. Many projected Louisville would move into the top four after all the upsets last week but Louisville is sitting at #5 and the Clemson team that handed the Cardinals their only loss is ahead of them. The Clemson/Louisville game was one of the best games of the season that could have gone either way but Clemson ultimately won that game and they will get to play in the ACC Championship unless they lose to Wake Forest this week.

Louisville can assume Alabama will stay in the top four and the Big Ten will sort itself out with one candidate emerging as moving into the top four is still a realistic possibility even though two teams making the field from the same division will be a new precedent in the short history of the playoff. The Cardinals would be at risk to potentially be passed in the final rankings if a clear Big XII or Pac-12 champion emerges and the Big Ten has some scenarios where two teams would be considered as well. This game with Houston will be the last opportunity for Louisville to make its case to the committee as next week’s game with Kentucky won’t carry as much weight and Louisville will most likely be idle on championship weekend while other candidates will have an opportunity to make a case.

For both Houston and Louisville this game carries a great deal of importance and this is certainly one of the more intriguing Thursday night college football games of the season. While Houston has much less at stake than they hoped, Herman and the Cougars have proven themselves in big games the past two seasons and Houston has an elite run defense that has allowed just 93 yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry to counter the impressive rushing attack for the Cardinals. As dominant has Louisville’s season numbers are they have had several close calls this season with narrow escapes vs. Duke and Virginia in ACC play and they even trailed last week in the 4th quarter despite pulling away for a 44-12 final vs. Wake Forest.

Historical Trends:

-- Louisville is 7-5 S/U but 5-7 ATS in this series going back to 1984, failing to cover in both recent meetings with a 20-13 home win in 2013 and a 34-31 home loss early last season.

-- Louisville is just 15-29-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite going back to 2007 including going 4-8-1 ATS on the road, though 2-1-1 in four instances this season.

-- Houston is 14-1 ATS as an underdog going back to November of 2012 posting eight S/U upsets in that span including going 5-0 S/U and ATS as an underdog since winning the Armed Forces Bowl after the 2014 season.

-- This line is poised to be the highest underdog spread for Houston since the 2013 meeting at Louisville and the biggest home underdog spread since hosting Louisville in 2004.

-- Houston has won S/U in 14 consecutive home games though they are just 5-9 ATS in that run though often playing as a heavy favorite.

-- Louisville is on a 25-15-2 ATS run in road games though going just 3-5-1 ATS in the last nine instances and covering in just one of the past four road games this season.

[StarDust Bum]

UNLV at Boise State
November 16, 2016


Boise State (9-1 straight up, 3-7 against the spread) went into Week 11 needing help to have a chance to get to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. UNLV, the Broncos’ counterpart when they collide Friday night on the blue carpet, provided just that.

You see, Boise St. essentially fell two games back of Wyoming in the MWC’s Mountain Division with a 30-28 loss to the Cowboys as a 14-point road favorite on Oct. 29. With Wyoming owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos, they were essentially two games out with four weeks left in the regular season.

But when UNLV (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) produced its best performance of the season last week, stunning Wyoming 69-66 in triple overtime, it created a three-way tie for first place atop the MWC Mtn. standings. Harsin’s team is joined by New Mexico and Wyoming as each school is sporting 5-1 records in league play.

Boise State smashed the Lobos 49-21 in Albuquerque, while UNM closes the regular season at home with the Cowboys. Therefore, if BSU can beat UNLV and avenge a home loss to Air Force from last year when it travels to Colorado Springs next Friday, the Broncos will face San Diego State in the MWC Championship Game.

First, though, BSU must take care of business on Friday night against the Rebels. As of early Wednesday, most books had the Broncos installed as 28-point home favorites with a total of 66. Gamblers could back UNLV to pull a shocker for a 30/1 payout at *** Global and 5Dimes.eu.

BSU is unbeaten in five home games at Albertsons Stadium this year to improve to 16-2 on the smurf turf since Bryan Harsin took over for Chris Petersen in 2014. The Broncos have limped to a 0-5 spread record at home, however, and they’re an abysmal 6-12 versus the number in 18 home games on Harsin’s watch. Going back even further, BSU is an atrocious 11-26 ATS since its final home game of the 2010 campaign.

Boise State played BYU and a pair of Pac-12 teams in non-conference play. The Broncos beat a Washington State squad that has won eight in a row since then by a 31-28 count as 12.5-point home ‘chalk’ in Week 2. They also went to Corvallis and beat Oregon St. 38-24, in addition to edging the Cougars 28-27 at home.

BSU is at home vs. UNLV on a short week, which would normally mean I’d give the host school an extra point or two toward the line because its short preparation time wouldn’t be hindered by travel. We can throw that standard thought process out the window in this spot, however, because the Broncos played at Hawaii last week.

Harsin’s team captured a 52-16 win over the Warriors at Aloha Stadium as a 21.5-point road favorite. The 68 combined points went ‘over’ the 62.5-point total when Hawaii scored a TD with 12:05 remaining.

Brett Rypien completed 18-of-22 throws for 338 yards and four TDs without an interception. Junior RB Jeremy McNichols rushed for 153 yards and two scores on 16 attempts, while Cedrick Wilson had seven receptions for 141 yards and one TD. Thomas Sperbeck hauld in five catches for 114 yards and two TDs, while McNichols had three grabs for 29 yards.

For the season, Rypien has connected on 65.0 percent of his passes for 2,916 yards with a 22/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sperbeck is his favorite target for a second straight year. The senior WR has become the school’s all-time leader in receiving yards (3,352) by bringing down 62 receptions for 1,023 yards and nine TDs. Sperbeck has also thrown three TD passes on three attempts off of trick plays.

McNichols has rushed for 1,369 yards, surpassing his 1,337-yard total from his sophomore campaign in 2015. The junior RB has 18 rushing TDs with a 5.7 yards-per-carry average. McNichols also has 31 catches for 428 yards and four TDs. Wilson has 44 catches for 827 yards and nine TDs.

UNLV’s huge win over Wyoming kept its bowl hopes alive for another week, but the victory was bittersweet due to the season-ending injury sustained by Devonte Boyd. The junior WR broke his arm yet continued to play against the Cowboys and had a key 17-yard catch in double OT. Boyd’s season is over after making a team-best 45 catches for 746 yards and four TDs.

Wyoming needed a TD from its defense and special teams just to have a chance late in the fourth quarter. On the final play of regulation, Josh Allen found Tanner Gentry for a 19-yard scoring strike and the subsequent extra point knotted the score at 52-52 to force the extra sessions.

In the third OT, UNLV secured the victory with Nicolai Bornand’s 40-yard game-winning field goal. The Rebels scored in the first OTs on a pair of TD passes from Kurt Palandech, who completed 20-of-32 passes for 252 yards and three TDs without an interception. Boyd had 10 receptions for 127 yards, while Palandech also rushed 16 times for 157 yards and one TD.

Xzaviar Campbell rushed for 83 yards and one TD on 19 carries. He also had two receptions for 18 yards and one TD. David Greene ran for 70 yards and a pair of scores on 14 attempts, while Jericho Flowers produced 92 yards on five ‘touches’ (two rushes, three catches).

Palandech was making his first start of the year against the Cowboys after Johnny Stanton went down with a knee injury that has him out for an indefinite period of time. Palandech has played in just two games, completing 30-of-55 passes for 413 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 197 yards and two TDs while averaging 7.9 YPC.

UNLV was without its leading rusher Lexington Thomas vs. Wyoming due to an ankle injury, but he’s expected back in the starting lineup Friday. Thomas has rushed for 632 yards and eight TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. He was actually passed by freshman RB Charles Williams in rushing yards last week. Williams’ 64 rushing yards against the Cowboys brought his season total to 665. He has three rushing scores and a 5.8 YPC average.

UNLV has lost four of its five road games while going 2-3 ATS. Since Sanchez took over before last season, the Rebels have posted a 5-3 spread record in eight games as road underdogs.

When these schools met at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas last season, BSU cruised to a 55-27 win to take the cash as a 21-point road favorite. The 82 combined points catapulted ‘over’ the 53.5-point total. Rypien threw for 469 yards and two TDs without an interception, while McNichols rushed for 122 yards and one TD on 22 carries. Sperbeck had 10 receptions for 163 yards for the winners, while Boyd had 10 catches for 116 yards in the losing effort.

The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for BSU, 4-1 in its five home outings. However, it has seen back-to-back ‘overs.’ The Broncos have seen their games average combined scores of 58.5 points per game. This is their second-highest total of the year. The ‘over’ has a 3-2 record in their five previous games with totals in the 60s.

The ‘over’ has been a money maker for UNLV all year, cashing at an 8-2 overall clip. The Rebels have seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 in their five road assignments. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 69.8 PPG. We should note, however, that this is the highest total they’ve seen all season. The ‘over’ has gone 3-0 in their three games with totals in the 60s. UNLV’s highest total previously was in its opener when the 76 combined points soared ‘over ‘the 63.5-point tally in a 63-13 home win over Jackson State.

Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- There’s one other game on Friday’s card with Cincinnati taking on Memphis at Nippert Stadium on the CBS Sports College Network at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. As of Wednesday, the Tigers were 7.5-point road favorites with a total of 57.5 points. The Bearcats were +250 on the money line. Tommy Tuberville’s team has had a rough year, limping to a 4-6 SU record and a 2-8 ATS mark. UC must win its last two regular-season games or it will be left out of the postseason for the first time since 2010. The Bearcats have lost three in a row both SU and ATS, scoring only 19 points in those three defeats. Memphis (6-4 SU, 3-7 ATS) has failed to cover the number in six of its last seven games, including last week’s 49-42 loss to South Florida as a 3.5-point home underdog. The Tigers had a great chance to force overtime, but the referees didn’t throw a flag on a fourth-and-goal play when a USF defender clearly committed pass interference.

-- Since Tuberville took over in 2013, Cincy has compiled a 3-4 spread record in seven games as a home underdog. However, the Bearcats are 1-3 both SU and ATS in four such spots this season.

-- The ‘under’ has been the play in Cincy games this season, hitting at a remarkable 9-0-1 overall clip. On the flip side, the ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run in Memphis games since the Tigers saw the ‘under’ prevailed in its first two games.

-- Colorado and Temple share the nation’s best ATS record (9-1), while Alabama, Wisconsin, UCF, Eastern Michigan and Colorado State are 8-2 versus the number.

-- Arizona has the nation’s worst ATS record (1-9), while Oregon has limped to a 1-8-1 ATS ledger.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in nine consecutive games for Pittsburgh. The Panthers, who are off last week’s 43-42 win at Clemson as 21.5-point road underdogs, play host to Duke this week as eight-point favorites (as of Wednesday). They’ll do so without star safety Jordan Whitehead, who broke his arm against Clemson and will miss the next two games. Whitehead, who led Pitt with 109 tackles last year and has a team-best 65 tackles this season, might be able to return for his team’s bowl game. He had also recorded 1.5 tackles for loss, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, two passes broken up and a 59-yard pick-six.

-- Duke has covered the spread in five straight games. Since David Cutcliffe took over in 2008, the Blue Devils have compiled a 21-16-1 spread record in 38 games as road underdogs, including a 3-1 ATS mark in four such spots this year.

-- Syracuse sophomore QB Eric Dungey (15/7 TD-INT, 2,679 passing yards) is ‘doubtful’ (concussion) for Saturday’s home game vs. FSU. The Seminoles were favored by 21 points on Wednesday.

-- South Florida junior QB Quinton Flowers enjoyed a performance for the ages during his team’s 49-42 win at Memphis as a three-point road favorite last week. Flowers connected on 24-of-29 throws for 263 yards and two TDs without an interception He also ran for 210 yards and three TDs on 20 attempts, including the game-winning score on a 22-yard scamper with 1:46 remaining. Flowers’ score resulted in the fifth lead change of a thrilling game at the Liberty Bowl.

-- Utah State has failed to cover the number in five consecutive games. The ‘over’ had hit in four in a row for the Aggies until they lost 24-21 at home to New Mexico and the 45 combined points went ‘under’ the 57-point total.

-- Air Force is mired in a 1-5 ATS slump, while the ‘over’ is on a 5-1 run for the Falcons in their last six outings. They play at San Jose State in Week 12.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 11 on the way…….

— Saints are 10-4 vs spread in their last 14 games.

— Chicago is 3-11 vs spread in its last 14 games.

— Browns are 6-16-1 in their last 23 games as an underdog.

— Cowboys won/covered their last eight games.

— New England is 32-11 coming off a loss.

— Colts are 9-2 coming off a bye.

**********

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: NFL’s top 9, bottom 4 teams……

32) Browns— Hurting Steelers come to Lake Erie this week needing a win. Chances are they will get it. Cleveland was outscored 60-8 in second half of its last three games.

31) 49ers— They’ve lost eight games in a row (1-7 vs spread); now Tom Brady is coming back near his hometown this week, so very little shot that New England will let down. Not good.

30) Jaguars— Offensive coordinator they fired few weeks ago is rumored to be candidate to be the new coach at Purdue. Jacksonville is -12 in turnovers the last five games.

29) Bears— Read few different national writers Monday speculating that Jay Cutler’s days in the Windy City may be numbered. Usually when there is speculation, someone has tipped off the person doing the speculating.

9) Dolphins— Won/covered last four games, picked Rivers off four times, just in 4th quarter last Sunday. Interesting game in the Coliseum this week, against the Rams in Jared Goff’s NFL debut.

8) Giants— Six wins by total of 21 points; they’re finding ways to win close games, just like they found ways to lose close games the last three years.

7) Chiefs— They’re 18-3 in their last 21 games, but they’ve also scored only one offensive TD in their last two games.

6) Broncos— 3-3 in last six games after a 4-0 start; if the defense doesn’t force turnovers, they are going to struggle.

5) Falcons— Bye week comes after their worst offensive game of the year. At 6-3, Atlanta is in good shape to return to the playoffs for first time in four years.

4) Seahawks— Wilson looked more nimble in Foxboro last week; if he is mobile, then Seahawks are very good.

3) Raiders— Haven’t been in the playoffs since 2002, when they lost the Super Bowl to the Bucs, but right now, they’re as good as anyone.

2) Patriots— Still think they’re the best team, but if Gronkowski is out for any length of time, then no.

1) Cowboys— Not often an NFL QB holds a news conference to say his former backup deserves to be the starter. Thats how well Dak Prescott is playing this season- he might be the MVP if the season ended today.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12

Thursday, November 17

Arkansas St @ Troy

Game 313-314
November 17, 2016 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arkansas St
79.933
Troy
91.439
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 11 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Troy
by 9
55
Dunkel Pick:
Troy
(-9); Over

Louisville @ Houston

Game 311-312
November 17, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Louisville
112.314
Houston
95.776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 16 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 14
69
Dunkel Pick:
Louisville
(-14); Under

Houston Baptist @ Incarnate Word

Game 505-506
November 17, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston Baptist
43.802
Incarnate Word
48.849
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Incarnate Word
by 5
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston Baptist
by 2 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Incarnate Word
(+2 1/2); Over

SE Louisiana @ Nicholls St

Game 503-504
November 17, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
SE Louisiana
59.158
Nicholls St
63.540
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nicholls St
by 4 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nicholls St
by 2 1/2
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Nicholls St
(-2 1/2); Under

Liberty @ Coastal Carolina

Game 501-502
November 17, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Liberty
66.816
Coastal Carolina
66.891
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
Even
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Coastal Carolina
by 6 1/2
63 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Liberty
(+6 1/2); Over


Friday, November 18

UNLV @ Boise State

Game 317-318
November 18, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UNLV
71.820
Boise State
95.702
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 24
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 28 1/2
66 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UNLV
(+28 1/2); Under

Memphis @ Cincinnati

Game 315-316
November 18, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
83.996
Cincinnati
84.902
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 7 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+7 1/2); Over

East Washington @ Portland St

Game 507-508
November 18, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
East Washington
85.466
Portland St
61.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
East Washington
by 24
76
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
East Washington
by 20 1/2
82 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
East Washington
(-20 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 12

Thurs – Nov. 17

Louisville at Houston, 8:00 PM ET
Louisville: 33-17 OVER in road games after playing 2 straight conference games
Houston: 9-21 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread

Arkansas State at Troy, 9:30 PM ET
Arkansas St: 10-2 ATS after playing a conference game
Troy: 3-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 52.5 and 56


Fri – Nov. 18

Memphis at Cincinnati, 8:00 PM ET
Memphis: 0-6 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games
Cincinnati: 10-2 UNDER off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival

UNLV at Boise State, 9:00 PM ET
UNLV: 7-22 ATS after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
Boise St: 16-4 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday’s games

Louisville won its last five games since Clemson loss by average score of 41-14; Cardinals were upset 34-31 at home by Houston LY- they beat Cougars 20-13 in ’13- this is their first visit here since 2004. Cardinals are 3-2 as road favorites this year, with wins by 34-31-7-45 points, plus the 42-36 loss at Clemson. Houston started season by upsetting Oklahoma, but later lost at Navy, SMU and is 0-5 vs spread in its last five games. Cougars passed for 320+ yards in five of first six games, but have been under 260 in last four. ACC non-conference road favorites are 5-3 vs spread; AAC home underdogs are 3-4.

Troy is 8-1, with only loss 30-24 at Clemson; they covered only one of last four games, are 2-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 46-10-21-4 points- they had tough 28-24 win over Appalachian State five days ago, while ASU cruised in its game Saturday. Arkansas State won its last three games with Troy, beating Trojans 41-34 in each of last two meetings; teams split last four meetings played here. ASU won/covered its last five games after an 0-4 start, with only road win in that stretch 31-16 (-4.5) at Georgia State. Sun Belt home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in league play this year.

Friday’s games

Memphis beat Cincinnati 53-46/41-14 last two years; underdogs covered four of last five series games. Bearcats lost LY despite gaining 752 yards in game, 620 in air. Tigers lost three of last four games after a 5-1 start; they’re 2-2 on road, 1-2 as road favorite this year, winning 24-14 at Tulane, 51-7 at SMU. Cincinnati is 1-7 vs spread in its last eight games, 0-3 as a home underdog this year, losing 40-16 to Houston, 45-20 to USF, 20-3 to BYU- they were outscored 44-6 in losing last two games without scoring a TD. AAC home underdogs are 6-7 vs spread in league play this year.

UNLV is 4-6 after outlasting Wyoming 69-66 in OT LW; Rebels ran ball for 401 yards- they’ve scored 41+ points in all four wins, averaged 20.8 in losses. UNLV is 2-3 as road underdog this year, wth only SU win at Hawai’i; their road losses are by 21-23-19-6 points. Boise State threw for 473 yards outgained UNLV 705-457 in 55-27 win in Las Vegas LY; Broncos are 1-4 vs spread in last five games, 0-5 as a home favorite this year- their home wins are by 3-11-5-1-14 points. Mountain West home favorites are 8-13 vs spread in league play this year. UNLV’s best WR Boyd broke his arm last week, is out for year.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, November 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAAF Game of the Day: Louisville at Houston
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson continues to shatter records on a near-weekly basis.

No. 5 Louisville Cardinals at Houston Cougars (+14.5, 68.5)

Ever since a six-point loss at Clemson on Oct. 1, Louisville knew it was going to need a number of upsets to happen to teams in front of them in the rankings in order to re-enter the College Football Playoff discussion, and most of them came to fruition last weekend. The Cardinals hope to take advantage of their good fortune and impress the CFP committee with a resume-building win Thursday when they attempt to end Houston's 14-game home winning streak.

Michigan, Clemson and Washington - three teams ahead of then-No. 6 Louisville (now No. 3) in the coaches' poll before Saturday - all fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last weekend, putting the Cardinals in a much more favorable position -- moving from No. 6 to No. 5 in the CFP rankings -- to play for a national championship should they win out. For the first 45 minutes of its last contest, Louisville appeared to be on the verge of joining the aforementioned top-five teams before piling up 34 points in the fourth quarter en route to a 44-12 win over Wake Forest on Saturday. The Cougars lost two of their first three games in October to fall out of the Top 25, but they have seemingly righted the ship with back-to-back wins. Houston served notice early last season that it was ready to wreak havoc on the big boys of college football, forcing four turnovers and blocking a potential tying field goal in the final minute to pull off a 34-31 upset at Louisville.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Louisville opened as 14-point road favorites and was bet up half-point to 14.5. The over opened at 69 and has been lowered to 68.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Louisville - RB L.J. Scott (questionable, hamstring)

Houston - QB Greg Ward Jr. (probable, shoulder), WR Ra’Shaad Samples (questionable, concussion), WR Isaiah Johnson (questionable, concussion), OL Na’Ty Rodgers (questionable, ankle), QB Kyle Postma (out of season, arm).

WEATHER REPORT: The forecast for TDECU Stadium is calling for partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the mid-70’s, and minimal winds.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: While most pundits thought this would be a battle of undefeated teams before the season began, it is still a prime time showdown between top teams from the AAC and the ACC. Houston will look to preserve its spotless 13-0 home field record under Tom Herman, while Louisville is looking to stay on the cusp in the race for a top four spot in this year’s College Football Playoffs. It will all come down to which of the two quarterbacks, the Cougars’ Greg Ward or the Cardinals’ Lamar Jackson, steps up and delivers.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (9-1 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 7-3 O/U) Quarterback Lamar Jackson continued to shatter records on a near-weekly basis last Saturday, breaking Teddy Bridgewater's single-season school record of 4,048 offensive yards and tying another single-season school mark with his seventh 100-yard rushing effort. While the Heisman Trophy frontrunner was limited to season lows in total yards (298) and touchdowns responsible for (one), senior running back Brandon Radcliff sparked Louisville's 41-point second-half explosion with a career-high three TDs and rushed for 141 yards, giving the Cardinals a pair of 100-yard rushers in the same game for a school-record third time this season. Devonte Fields matched a personal best with three sacks Saturday, while fellow linebacker James Hearns added a career-high two of Louisville's season-high seven sacks.

ABOUT HOUSTON (8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS, 4-6 O/U)Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. joined Case Keenum (20,114) and Kevin Kolb (13,715) as the only players in school history to amass 10,000 yards of total offense last weekend, and he moved into a second-place tie with Kolb (26) for the most wins by a Cougars quarterback. Junior wide receiver Linell Bonner caught nine passes for 97 yards Saturday, marking the fifth time this season he has managed at least eight receptions and 97 yards in the same game. Freshman defensive tackle Ed Oliver continued to wreak havoc in last weekend's 30-18 win over Tulane, recording his FBS-best (among defensive linemen) sixth pass breakup while adding 1.5 tackles for loss to give him 16.5 for the season.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
* Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. ACC.
* Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

CONSENSUS: The betting public is split 50/50 on the spread. The over is another story with 73% grabbing the over.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/04/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/05/2016 26-34-0 43.33% -5700
11/08/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/09/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/10/2016 1-5-0 16.67% -2250
11/11/2016 0-2-0 0.00% -1100
11/12/2016 23-28-1 45.10% -3900
11/15/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/16/2016 3-1-0 75.00% +950

TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 81 - 71- 7 *****

BIG TEN GOY................0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )
MT. WEST GOY..............1 - 0 ( WYOMING ROLLS BIG OVER UTAH ST. )
MAC UNDERDOG GOY.....1 - 0 ( KENT ST. + 21 W.MICHIGAN 37 )
ACC BLOW OUT.............0 - 1 ( CLEMSON -21.5 42 - 43 PITT )
MAC FAVORITE .............1 - 0 ( MIA-OHIO - 10 OVER BUFFALO 35 -24)
SEC BLOW OUT..............1 - 0 ( BAMA -28.5 OVER MISS ST. 51 - 3 )
PAC 12 GOY...................0 - 1 ( USC UPSETS WASHINGTON 26-13 )
BIG 10 DOG..................0 - 1 ( MINNESOTA + 6 LOSES TO NEBRASKA 17 -24 )
PAC 12 BLOW OUT .........1 - 0 ( COLORADO - 17.5 CRUSHES ARIZONA 49 - 24 )
THURS. NIGHT GOY.........0 - 0 ( ????? )

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 289-285-12 50.35% -12250

O/U Picks 101-109-4 48.10% -9450

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

LOU at HOU 08:00 PM

LOU -16.0 ***** ( THURSDAY NIGHT CFB GOY )

O 68.0 *****



ARST at TROY 09:30 PM

ARST +9.0 *****

U 54.5

[StarDust Bum]

Cougars ruin No. 3 Louisville's playoff hopes with 36-10 win
November 18, 2016

HOUSTON (AP) The Houston Cougars quite enjoyed playing spoiler on Thursday night with their playoff hopes long since gone.

Duke Catalon scored three touchdowns and Houston hurried and harassed Heisman favorite Lamar Jackson all night to propel the Cougars to a stunning 36-10 victory over No. 3 Louisville that dashed the Cardinals' playoff chances.

''I think our guys, they embrace the underdog role,'' Houston coach Tom Herman said. ''When we're healthy, when we're fresh and we have that chip on our shoulder against big time opponents ... we don't change the way we prepare for these kind of games, but I do think our guys have an added motivation.''

Louisville (9-2) entered the game ranked fifth in the College Football Playoff rankings, but was outdone by a Houston team that saw its own playoff hopes foiled by two losses to unranked teams after a 5-0 start .

''Showing the world once again that Houston is the greatest school, a great place to be, a great environment,'' Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver said. ''We work hard for everything that we ever had and will have. We're legit. We're go-getters. No matter the task, we always come through the other side.''

The victory was Houston's second this season over a team ranked third after the Cougars (9-2) knocked off Oklahoma to open the season and it was their fourth straight win over a top-10 team.

Things went wrong quickly for the mistake-prone Cardinals when they fumbled awau the opening kickoff. Greg Ward threw his first touchdown pass on the next play to make it 7-0. Brandon Radcliff lost a fumble later in the first and Houston added a field goal on the ensuing drive to make it 10-0.

Jackson threw for 211 yards and a touchdown, but it didn't come until the second half.

''That was a heck of a football team in Louisville and a heck of a player in Lamar Jackson,'' Herman said. ''Still in my opinion, nothing's changed. That's the best player in college football, and our defense did a good job of putting pressure on him.''

Houston then scored touchdowns on three straight possessions in the second quarter to push the lead to 31-0 at halftime. Catalon caught a touchdown pass, ran for another score and Houston got the third score in that span on a 50-yard pass by receiver Linell Bonner after a lateral.

Louisville opened the second half with a 12-yard touchdown pass by Jackson, but he fumbled in the red zone on the next possession to ruin a chance to close the gap.

The Cougars were in Jackson's face constantly, sacking him a season-high 11 times and keeping him from hurting them with his feet. He ran for a season-low 33 yards after piling up 338 yards rushing combined in the last two games. The 11 sacks were tied for the most allowed in the country this season.

''Honestly, we try to do this every week,'' linebacker Steven Taylor said. ''It just felt good for us to accomplish this and show the world that we're capable of coming out and being aggressive and doing good at that.''

After Jackson was sacked for the 10th time he threw up his hands and two of his lineman looked to be yelling at each other about who was to blame for his latest takedown.

''It was so loud, you couldn't hear words,'' Oliver said. ''But you could see he was yelling at his o-lineman, but you couldn't hear what he was saying. I'm guessing he was yelling at them for false starts.''

But the Cougars weren't done getting after him just yet. On the next possession he threw the ball away while under heavy pressure from Tyus Bowser and was flagged for intentional grounding, giving the Cougars a safety.

The Cardinals set a season-high with 15 penalties, punted a season-high six times by halftime and the 11 sacks they allowed were more than double their previous season-high. It's the fewest points they've scored since a loss at North Carolina in 2011.

Ward threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns to help the Cougars to the victory that left Cougar fans storming the field to celebrate.


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Humes, Hansen lead Arkansas State past No. 25 Troy, 35-3
November 17, 2016

TROY, Ala. (AP) The Arkansas State Red Wolves used big plays, smothering defense and a well-executed gamble to prove they are still the team to beat in the Sun Belt Conference.

Chris Humes caught a 31-yard pass on a fake punt and recovered a fumble in the end zone to help Arkansas State upset No. 25 Troy 35-3 on Thursday night.

The Red Wolves (6-4, 6-0) gained the inside track for a fifth league title in six years after starting the season 0-4.

Four days earlier, Troy (8-2, 5-1) had become the first ranked Sun Belt team after winning seven straight games. But the league's top scoring offense committed five turnovers and couldn't reach the end zone.

''We took it very, very personally,'' said Arkansas State defensive end Chris Odom, who forced the fumble that led to Humes' touchdown. ''Top 25, they thought they were already No. 1 in the conference. They felt like they had already won the Sun Belt title.

''Well, they had to go through us tonight and we showed them how we play.''

Arkansas State has won 15 straight conference games. The first Sun Belt team to start 8-1, Troy scored first but wound up losing to the Red Wolves for the fourth straight year.

''They came in here as champions and they're leaving as champions,'' Trojans coach Neal Brown said. ''We haven't earned that yet.''

Humes had a big role in two straight touchdowns. Arkansas State turned a fake punt into a 7-3 halftime lead. Cam Echols-Luper took the punt snap and hit a wide open Humes, who raced down the left sideline to inside Troy's 10.

Three plays later, Justice Hansen hit a leaping Kendall Sanders in the back of the end zone for a 9-yard touchdown. The Red Wolves at one point had more punts (7) than completions (6).

Humes recovered a fumble in the end zone on the first play of the second half after Odom knocked the ball loose from quarterback Brandon Silvers. It was one of many plays by the defense that Arkansas State coach Blake Anderson said ''came up as big as you possibly can.''

''That was about as complete a game defensively as you can play from beginning to end,'' Anderson said. ''They came up aces. We all knew they were capable of it.''

Hansen started slow but completed a few balls downfield in the second half. He finished 13 of 24 for 149 yards

Silvers was 20 of 39 for 207 yards with two interceptions. The Sun Belt's leading rusher, Jordan Chunn, was limited to 51 yards on 16 carries.

THE TAKEAWAY

Arkansas State: Has won 18 of its last 21 Sun Belt road games. Gained 126 yards in the first half and 262 in the second. Ja'Von Rolland-Jones tied the Sun Belt career record with his 26th sack.

Troy: The Trojans had only lost four fumbles all season, but twice coughed up the ball in Arkansas State territory before halftime and fared worse the third time. An offense that came in averaging 474 yards and 38.1 points was held to 262 yards.

QB PRESSURE: Troy allowed two sacks after coming in having given up a nation's best three in nine games.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

The Trojans had only a few days to celebrate being in the Top 25 , but are still having their best season in years.

UP NEXT

Arkansas State faces Louisiana-Lafayette in the second of three straight Sun Belt road games.

Troy visits Sun Belt opponent Texas State trying to regroup.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, November 18

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MEMPHIS (6 - 4) at CINCINNATI (4 - 6) - 11/18/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MEMPHIS is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) in road games in November games since 1992.
MEMPHIS is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-1 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 2-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UNLV (4 - 6) at BOISE ST (9 - 1) - 11/18/2016, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 54-79 ATS (-32.9 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
UNLV is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BOISE ST is 132-94 ATS (+28.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 132-94 ATS (+28.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 108-80 ATS (+20.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
BOISE ST is 80-55 ATS (+19.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
BOISE ST is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
BOISE ST is 75-44 ATS (+26.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
BOISE ST is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
BOISE ST is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
BOISE ST is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BOISE ST is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOISE ST is 1-0 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
BOISE ST is 1-0 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday,November 18

8:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Memphis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home
Cincinnati is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home

9:00 PM
UNLV vs. BOISE STATE
UNLV is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of UNLV's last 17 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

-------------------------------

Friday, November 18

UNLV @ Boise State

Game 317-318
November 18, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UNLV
71.820
Boise State
95.702
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 24
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 28 1/2
66 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
UNLV
(+28 1/2); Under

Memphis @ Cincinnati

Game 315-316
November 18, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
83.996
Cincinnati
84.902
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 7 1/2
57 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+7 1/2); Over

East Washington @ Portland St

Game 507-508
November 18, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
East Washington
85.466
Portland St
61.286
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
East Washington
by 24
76
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
East Washington
by 20 1/2
82 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
East Washington
(-20 1/2); Under

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Fri – Nov. 18

Memphis at Cincinnati, 8:00 PM ET
Memphis: 0-6 ATS after scoring 37 points or more in 2 straight games
Cincinnati: 10-2 UNDER off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival

UNLV at Boise State, 9:00 PM ET
UNLV: 7-22 ATS after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
Boise St: 16-4 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in 4 consecutive games

-----------------------------

Friday’s games
Memphis beat Cincinnati 53-46/41-14 last two years; underdogs covered four of last five series games. Bearcats lost LY despite gaining 752 yards in game, 620 in air. Tigers lost three of last four games after a 5-1 start; they’re 2-2 on road, 1-2 as road favorite this year, winning 24-14 at Tulane, 51-7 at SMU. Cincinnati is 1-7 vs spread in its last eight games, 0-3 as a home underdog this year, losing 40-16 to Houston, 45-20 to USF, 20-3 to BYU- they were outscored 44-6 in losing last two games without scoring a TD. AAC home underdogs are 6-7 vs spread in league play this year.

UNLV is 4-6 after outlasting Wyoming 69-66 in OT LW; Rebels ran ball for 401 yards- they’ve scored 41+ points in all four wins, averaged 20.8 in losses. UNLV is 2-3 as road underdog this year, wth only SU win at Hawai’i; their road losses are by 21-23-19-6 points. Boise State threw for 473 yards outgained UNLV 705-457 in 55-27 win in Las Vegas LY; Broncos are 1-4 vs spread in last five games, 0-5 as a home favorite this year- their home wins are by 3-11-5-1-14 points. Mountain West home favorites are 8-13 vs spread in league play this year. UNLV’s best WR Boyd broke his arm last week, is out for year.