The Bum's 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

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Utah faces blitzing test against ASU
November 9, 2016

TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) Utah has put itself on a collision course with Colorado later this month for a possible shot at the Pac-12 South title. The Utes are a game behind the 16th-ranked Buffaloes, so all they need to do is beat two teams with losing conference records to give themselves a shot.

The first one, Thursday night in the desert, won't be easy.

Arizona State has won just two of its four Pac-12 games, but the Sun Devils will be a tough out with all the pressure they will put on the No. 13 Utes defensively.

''They're by far the most heavily blitzed team we've faced all year,'' Utah quarterback Troy Williams said. ''Arizona State really bases their defense upon trying to pressure the quarterback. This will be a good challenge for us.''

Arizona State (5-4, 2-4 Pac-12) does have one of the conference's most aggressive defenses, sending blitzes in from everywhere.

But survive the blitz and opposing teams have found the Sun Devils vulnerable to big plays.

Despite dialing back the blitzes a bit this season, Arizona State is last nationally against the pass for the second straight season, allowing 397.6 yards per game. The Sun Devils have been plagued by injuries, but also poor tackling and missed assignments, leading to 12 scoring plays of 50 yards or longer.

''We have to get better at what we're doing,'' Arizona State coach Todd Graham said. ''There's times when we have played very, very well. We've had too many critical errors, that's the biggest thing.''

The Utes (7-2, 4-2) have not played since losing to No. 4 Washington on Oct. 29, allowing players to get rested and heal up as they attempt to win in Tempe for the first time since 1976.

Utah has numerous players who could return from injuries, including center Lo Falemaka, safety Marcus Williams and receiver Cory Butler-Byrd

''We got some guys rested and some players some down time,'' Utes coach Kyle Whittingham said. ''Injury-wise, hopefully we get a few guys back.''

A few more things to look for when Utah plays at Arizona State on Thursday night:

WILKINS' RETURN?: Arizona State quarterback Manny Wilkins has worked with the first-team offense this week and is expected to return from sho

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COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/04/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/05/2016 26-34-0 43.33% -5700
11/08/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/09/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100

TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 65 - 55 - 6 *****

BIG TEN GOY................0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )
MT. WEST GOY..............1 - 0 ( WYOMING ROLLS BIG OVER UTAH ST. )
MAC UNDERDOG GOY.....1 - 0 ( KENT ST. + 21 W.MICHIGAN 37 )

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 262-255-11 50.68% -9250

O/U Picks 100-102-4 49.50% -6100

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, November 10

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NCAAF Game of the Day: Utah at Arizona State
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No. 15 Utah is a 6-pt road fave tonight at Arizona State, but the Sun Devils are 5-0 ATS at home this season.

No. 15 Utah Utes at Arizona State (5.5, 56.5)

Utah is part of a three-team battle for the Pac-12 South title and the No. 12 Utes have no margin for error as they enter Thursday's road contest at Arizona State. The Utes are in third place behind Colorado and USC and a loss to the Sun Devils would all but erase their division title hopes.

Utah still has a contest with first-place Colorado on the slate so winning to keep pace or catch the Buffaloes remains paramount but coach Kyle Whittingham has cautioned his players not to look ahead. "You have to take them one at a time," Whittingham said at a press conference. "All the focus is on ASU. It's great to be in the hunt come November and our guys understand that." Arizona State dropped three consecutive games and four of its past five, and expects to have sophomore quarterback Manny Wilkins in the lineup. Wilkins has been plagued with ankle and shoulder injuries and missed two of the last four contests, and missed most of one of the other games.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1.

LINE HISTORY: Utah opened as 5.5-point road favorites and that number has remained all week. The total hit the board at 59.5 and has been dropping all week, as of Thursday morning the current number is 56.5. Check out the complete line history here.

INJURY REPORT:

Utah - LB Sunia Tauteoli (probable, undisclosed), RB Zack Moss (probable, undisclosed), RB Troy McCormick (questionable, undisclosed), RB Jordan Howard (questionable, undisclosed), DB Marcus Williams (questionable, undisclosed), TE Harrison Handley (questionable, undisclosed)

Arizona State - LB Salami Fiso (probable, knee), DB Armand Perry (probable, foot), QB Manny Wilkins (probable, stinger), DB Kareem Orr (probable, leg), DL Koron Crump (probable, knee), OL Sam Jones (questionable, foot), OL A.J. McCollum (questionable, undisclosed), WR Cameron Smith (questionable, undisclosed), DB Dasmond Tautalatasi (questionable, foot), Stephon McCray (questionable, undisclosed), WR Tim White (questionable, ankle), LB Christian Sam (doubtful, ankle)

WEATHER REPORT: It looks like a beautiful night at Sun Devil Stadium. The forecast is calling for clear skies, minimal winds and temperatures in the 70’s.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: On the surface it appears this game looks like a mismatch. But beware of a red faced, embarrassed Arizona State squad here tonight. Especially when you consider the Sun Devils are 11-1 SU versus Utah since 1977, and the Utes are just 1-7 ATS as road favorites since joining the PAC-12 conference.

ABOUT UTAH (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4, O/U): Senior running back Joe Williams (758) has rushed for 683 yards in the past three games since ending his early season retirement and is taking pressure off of junior quarterback Troy Williams, who is completing only 54.6 percent of his passes. Troy Williams passed for 1,888 yards and nine touchdowns against five interceptions and senior wideout Tim Patrick is his favorite target with 29 receptions for 501 yards and five scores. Whittingham said the Utes expect to have the services of standout junior free safety Marcus Williams (three interceptions, two fumbles) after a two-game injury absence to aid a unit led by senior defensive end Hunter Dimick (seven sacks).

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 5-4 O/U): The return of Wilkins (1,421 yards, six touchdowns, five interceptions) provides a boost to the stagnant passing attack as leading receiver Tim White, a senior, hasn't found the end zone despite team-best totals of 47 receptions and 573 yards. Junior tailback Demario Richard has a team-best 532 rushing yards and is expected back after missing the last game because of injury. The Sun Devils have been horrid on defense while allowing 36.6 points and 513.6 yards per game - 124th among the 128 FBS teams in the nationl - but junior outside linebacker Koron Crump is having a solid season with a team-best nine sacks.

TRENDS:

Utes are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Utes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-0 in Utes last 4 games on grass.
Over is 8-1 in Sun Devils last 9 games following a bye week.

CONSENSUS: The public is all over the road team with 71 percent of wagers. The over is getting 60 percent of the action.

[StarDust Bum]

Sharps are closely monitoring these Week 11 college football games

The public will want to back Penn State after a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their past four games.

Spread to bet now:

UNLV (+7.5) vs. Wyoming

This line has dropped from +8 to +7.5, so play it now before it hits the key number of +7. Wyoming has taken advantage of a strong home field with altitude this season, going 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), however the Cowboys are just 2-2 SU (1-2 ATS) on the road this year. They have a weak defense that is permitting 32.5 points per game and 6.4 yards per play away from home.

UNLV has been a better team at home this season, going 2-2 SU, compared to 1-4 SU on the road. The Runnin' Rebels have been a strong offensive team at home this year, averaging 40.2 points per game on 7.4 yards per play. They have out-rushed their opponents 296-133 rushing yards (6.6-3.5 yards per rush) on their home field.

Spread to wait on:

Indiana (+7) vs. Penn State

This line is currently +6.5 to +7 in most locations and might rise higher to +7.5 by this weekend. The public will want to back Penn State after a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS the past four games. However, the Nittany Lions are due for a letdown after big wins versus Ohio State and Iowa in their past three games. Penn State is just 1-2 SU on the road this season where they have allowed 38.3 points per game.

Indiana enters this game off back-to-back wins with solid offensive performances, scoring 75 points combined on 1,217 total yards. The Hoosiers have played better than their overall 27.1 points per game offensive number indicates as they have gained 6.1 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 5.7 yppl). Indiana has been particularly strong throwing the ball, averaging 8.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that allow just 7.1 ypp).

Total to watch:

California at Washington State (83.5)

California remains a horrible defensive team this season, going 7-2 to the Over, while allowing 44.4 points on 528 total yards per game (versus opponents that average just 34.1 ppg and 439 yards). Those numbers have been consistently bad in conference games as California has allowed 46.8 points and 540 yards per game. The Golden Bears have allowed 47, 49, 45, and 66 points in their past four games.

Washington State has a potent offense that is averaging 43.0 points on 502 total yards per game this season (versus opponents that allow just 32.3 ppg and 446 yards). The Cougars have been even stronger at home where they are 4-1 SU and averaging 49.0 points on 529 total yards per game. Washington State does have a decent defense this year which is allowing just 24.7 points per game on 6.0 yards per play (versus opponents that average 30.0 ppg and 6.2 yppl). The question is if the Cougars can slow down a strong California offense that is averaging 39.7 points on 517 total yards per game this season (versus opponents that allow just 29.0 ppg and 417 yards).

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Thursday's Pac-12 Action
November 8, 2016


Thursday College Football Betting Preview
Utah Utes vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Sportsbook.ag Odds: Utah (-5.5); Total set at 58.5

The Pac-12 may not be getting much respect from the playoff selection committee in recent days – we will see if Washington gets into that #4 spot tonight – and part of that is because of the logjam atop the South division.

Colorado, USC and Utah will all be fighting one another down to the wire for the right to play in that conference Championship game, and this week it's Utah who hits the field first as they are in Arizona State.

The Sun Devils are trying to get to that critical six-win mark to become Bowl eligible themselves this year and they have no problem playing spoiler to Utah's division championship hopes.

Utah got their first win in five tries since joining the Pac-12 Conference vs Arizona State a season ago as the 34-18 victory was one of their better performances on the year.

The Utes have much higher hopes this season and need to rebound off a seven-point loss to undefeated Washington at the end of October. Utah was in that game with the Huskies all the way until the end as it was tied late in the 4th quarter before a 58-yard punt return TD by Washington broke the deadlock and held up as the winning score.

It was a solid ATS victory for Utah though, who've have covered the number in three of their last four, but things haven't come easy for them on the road in conference play. Utah is 2-1 SU on the road against Pac-12 rivals, but just 1-2 ATS in those games, and 0-2 ATS when laying points.

It's not like those two ATS losses came to quality opponents either as California - a 4-5 SU team – beat the Utes outright, and 2-7 SU Oregon State lost 19-14 to Utah when the Utes were laying 7.5 points.

There is no question that Arizona State is the best of the bunch in that regard and Utah better tighten things up away from home this week if they want a shot at the Pac-12 South crown.

ASU has been off since late October as well, and they've likely used that extra time off to tighten up some defensive deficiencies that have plagued them the past few weeks. Arizona State has given up 54, 37, and 40 points in their past three games – all losses – and that kind of play isn't going to give them a chance here.

Thankfully, the program has a history of keeping Utah's offense in check (aside from last year) as the Utes never scored more than 19 points against the Sun Devils in the four conference meetings prior to a season ago.

Three of the five meetings between these two in Pac-12 play have cashed 'under' tickets, and with extra rest on both sides this week, total bettors could see a similar result.

However, grabbing the points with the home dog in this spot is the better betting play this week because of Utah's struggles on the road against sub-par teams.

This is Arizona State's final home game of the season and the entire side should play inspired football. The Sun Devils are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight at home and have been a solid team for bettors all year with a 9-4 ATS run going over their past 13 games.

ASU is also 4-1 ATS when coming off a loss and typically have no problems playing up to the level of their competition with a 7-1 ATS run going against winning teams.

Throw in the fact that it's Senior Day at ASU, a sixth win would make them Bowl eligible, and Utah's 1-4 ATS run when coming off a loss and this game should come right down to the wire.

Best Bet: Take Arizona State +5.5

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ULL at GASO 07:30 PM

GASO -7.5 *****

U 45.5

UNC at DUKE 07:30 PM

DUKE +11.5 *****

O 65.0

UTAH at ASU 09:30 PM

ASU +5.0*****

U 54.5

[StarDust Bum]

Jennings, Louisiana-Lafayette beat Georgia Southern 33-26
November 10, 2016

STATESBORO, Ga. (AP) Anthony Jennings passed for 210 yards and ran for 96 yards and a touchdown to help Louisiana-Lafayette beat Georgia Southern 33-26 on Thursday night.

Jennings converted a pair of third downs - a 21-yard keeper and a 9-yard pass to Al Riles - for the Ragin' Cajuns (4-5, 3-3 Sun Belt) to run out the clock on the final drive.

Louisiana-Lafayette led 31-13 in the middle of the third after Riles, starting from a Wildcat formation, threw a 48-yard TD pass to Keenan Barnes.

Georgia Southern (4-6, 3-3) cut it to 31-19 on L.A. Ramsby's 2-yard TD run. But Louisiana-Lafayette's Otha Peters intercepted and returned Seth Shuman's pass 100 yards to convert the extra 2 points for the Cajuns. Ramsby scored again to cap the scoring with 4:23 left after Ironhead Gallon returned Darrius Sapp's blocked punt 66 yards.

BJ Johnson III had nine catches for 127 yards for the Eagles.

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Duke upsets UNC as home 'dogs
November 10, 2016

DURHAM, N.C. (AP) Duke waited until it was time to play No. 15 North Carolina to finally cut out all the mistakes that kept haunting the Blue Devils in close losses.

They ran the ball with a physical edge and tightened defensively, then ended their Senior Night by sprinting across the field as time expired to reclaim a lost rivalry trophy.

Daniel Jones ran for two scores and threw for another to help the Blue Devils upset the Tar Heels 28-27 on Thursday night to secure their first Atlantic Coast Conference win.

Duke (4-6, 1-5 ACC) was flirting with its first winless league record since 2007 after a tight loss at No. 5 Louisville and a pair of three-point losses to Georgia Tech and No. 18 Virginia Tech.

''I laid all of that out there: here's the path we've been on, here's how you correct it,'' Duke coach David Cutcliffe said. ''They're smart. They listen, they believe. And that's huge that they keep buying into each other, the loyalty. So that joy, that's huge.''

Jones, a redshirt freshman, ran for 94 yards as part of a ground game that kept moving the chains against the Tar Heels (7-3, 5-2, No. 17 CFP). Shaun Wilson ran for a game-high 107 yards and a score of his own, Duke finished with 227 yards rushing and converted 10 of 17 third-down chances.

''Our offensive line was doing a tremendous job all game,'' Jones said, ''firing off the ball and being physical and creating that physicality that we want as a team.''

That formula was on display at the end, as Duke took more than 6 1/2 minutes off the clock with a long drive from its own 1 before punting back to UNC. The Blue Devils then came up with a final stop, with Alonzo Saxton II picking off Mitch Trubisky near midfield with 1:02 left on a night that ended with Duke players sprinting across the field to re-claim the Victory Bell presented to the winner of the long-running rivalry.

More surprisingly, Duke's defense gradually locked down the Tar Heels' high-scoring offense, which finished with just 31 yards in the final 15 minutes.

''Every time we would make a play, we would shoot ourselves in the foot on the next one or something would happen,'' Tar Heels coach Larry Fedora said. ''There was no consistency whatsoever.''

THE TAKEAWAY

UNC: The Tar Heels likely saw any chance of repeating as the league's Coastal Division champion die with this loss considering they had to keep winning and hope for the Hokies to lose once. But there was a familiar problem with being physical enough to stop the run, on top of the surprising offensive struggles after halftime.

''We missed a big opportunity,'' Trubisky said.

DUKE: After a couple of close losses, Duke showed it had enough fortitude to bounce back and play a clean game even as it flirted with the program's first winless ACC record since 2007. Notable in Thursday's performance: no turnovers for the second straight week.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

North Carolina will almost certainly slide in the AP Top 25 after this one. The question is whether the Tar Heels - who have been in and out of the poll this season - might fall all the way out again after losing to a winless ACC team with a curiously shaky performance.

STREAK SNAPPED

The Tar Heels came into this game with nine straight wins on an opponent's home field, tied with No. 3 Clemson for third longest in the nation behind No. 1 Alabama (11) and No. 9 Oklahoma (10).

BLOWN LEAD

North Carolina got off to a sprint of a start, jumping to a 14-0 first-quarter lead behind a sharp Trubisky. The junior completed 12 of his first 15 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns, but threw for just 97 yards on 12-for-18 passing with two interceptions from there. UNC managed only two second-half field goals.

UP NEXT

UNC: The Tar Heels step out of conference play to take on The Citadel. They're 4-0 in that series with the last meeting coming in 2009.

DUKE: The Blue Devils play at Pittsburgh, the first of two straight division road games to close the regular season.

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No. 13 Utah rolls to 49-26 win over Arizona State
November 10, 2016

TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) Joe Williams ran for 181 yards and two touchdowns, and No. 13 Utah's defense had 11 sacks in a 49-26 victory over Arizona State on Thursday night.

Utah (8-2, 5-2 Pac-12, No. 15 CFP) overcame a slow start with a series of spectacular plays against the FBS' worst passing defense to end an eight-game losing streak in Tempe.

Troy Williams threw for 296 yards and connected with Raelon Singleton on three of his four touchdown passes. Singleton finished with 116 yards on four catches to help the Utes stay within reach of No. 16 Colorado in the Pac-12 South.

Utah was concerned about Arizona State's attacking defense, but the Utes were the ones putting on all the pressure. Hunter Dimick sacked Manny Wilkins five times and the Utes had 22 tackles for loss.

Wilkins threw for 309 yards and a touchdown after missing last week's game against Oregon, but also threw two interceptions. The last one, a 43-yard pick-6 by Chase Hansen in the fourth quarter, sealed Utah's victory

Arizona State (5-4, 2-4) has lost five of six since opening 4-0.

THE TAKEAWAY

Utah's defense was at its harassing best and its offense had a nice balance, setting the Utes up nicely for the season's final two games.

Arizona State got a spark from Wilkins' return, but couldn't protect him or stop giving up big plays on defense. The Sun Devils need to win one of their final two games to become bowl eligible.

UP NEXT

Utah hosts Oregon next Saturday before playing at No. 16 Colorado in a potential showdown for the Pac-12 South title.

Arizona State hosts No. 4 Washington next Saturday before playing at rival Arizona in its regular-season finale.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday’s six-pack

My six favorite Bill Murray movies:

6) Quick Change– Saw this on my first date with my future ex-wife.

5) St Vincent– Any time a guy takes a little kid he is babysitting to the racetrack, the movie has a chance.

4) Caddyshack– This was more of a Rodney/Chevy Chase movie.

3) Stripes– The late Harold Rams should’ve acted in more movies.

2) Meatballs– Morty, the guy who ran the summer camp, later wound up as a judge on Law and Order.

1) Lost in Translation– Underrated movie with Scarlett Johansson.

Friday’s List of 13: Bottom 5, Top 8 in the NFL

32) Browns— Cleveland is 0-10, but not the only team that has trailed all its games in 4th quarter. 5-4 Lions have trailed all nine of their games in 4th quarter- they easily could be 0-9, or 8-1.

31) 49ers— Allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of their last seven games, which doesn’t happen very often.

30) Jaguars— Ran ball better last week than they have all season but teams that turn ball over four times almost never win. Host a Houston team this week that is 0-3 on the road.

29) Bears— They should start playing better with Cutler back at QB and Bucs-Titans-49ers on schedule in next month. For what it is worth, Jay Cutler grew up in a town called Santa Claus, IN; wonder what the high school’s mascot is?

28) Rams— I let this slide Monday because there were so many other things to be annoyed about, but Rams’ only TD against the Panthers came on a 4th-and-goal play from the 10 in last 0:40 when LA trailed 13-3. Going for it on 4th-and-goal from the 10, when you had an easy FG and you needed 10 points, was coaching malpractice.

Just because the play worked doesn’t make it a good decision; in a lot of ways, this ticked me off more than losing the damn game.

8) Broncos— Wade Phillips feels better, may be back on sidelines for this week’s game; if his defense doesn’t create opportunities for the Denver offense, it’ll be a long second half of the season— Broncos’ offense isn’t very good.

7) Giants— One of three teams (Cards, Jags) that haven’t scored a point yet on their first drive of the game. Wentz threw INTs on Eagles’ first two drives, so Giants got TDs on drives of 31-30 yards on their 2nd/3rd drives of the game, but when the coach is also the playcaller, shouldn’t they do better on their first drive?

6) Seahawks— Long trip east to Foxboro on a short week Sunday nite; they play Patriots for first time since their Super Bowl loss to New England. Seahawks’ rushing attempts in last three games: 19-17-12- they need more balance on offense. They also need a more mobile Wilson.

5) Chiefs— Have NFL’s best record (17-3) in their last 20 games, but only one of those wins was a playoff game. Alex Smith is back at QB this week, which should improve their play in red zone.

4) Falcons— 6-3 with bye week in Week 11, so they should be well-rested for stretch run, with little bit of a soft schedule, other than the KC game. Will Kyle Shanahan be a head coach elsewhere in ’17?

3) Raiders— Last time they were in the playoffs was 2002, when they lost Super Bowl to Tampa Bay. They’ll be there this year. First game after their bye is against the Texans on a Monday night in Mexico City.

2) Cowboys— If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it; at 7-1, no reason for Dallas to change QBs; they seem to be set there for the next 10-12 years. Interesting game in Pittsburgh this week, against the banged-up Steelers.

1— Patriots— After playing Seattle this week, their next three games are against 49ers-Jets-Rams; they’ll have to guard against boredom, playing those three stiffs in a row.

I’m not kidding; closest game they’ve had since Brady came back is 11 points- you need to play in close games during season to tighten up for the playoffs, when games will be close.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday,November 11

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BOSTON COLLEGE (4 - 5) at FLORIDA ST (6 - 3) - 11/11/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
FLORIDA ST is 1-1 against the spread versus BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
FLORIDA ST is 2-0 straight up against BOSTON COLLEGE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday,November 11

7:30 PM
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. FLORIDA STATE
Boston College is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston College's last 6 games when playing Florida State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 6 games when playing Boston College
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida State's last 5 games

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Fri – Nov. 11

Boston College at Florida State, 7:30 PM ET
Boston College: 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Florida St: 1-8 ATS off a road win

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Friday’s game

Four of last five Florida State games were decided by 4 or less points; Seminoles are 2-4 vs spread as a favorite this year, 0-2 at home- they’re 6-10-1 in last 17 games as a home favorite, and lost SU in two of last three home games, to UNC/Clemson. FSU won its last six games vs Boston College (3-3 vs spread), winning last three by 14-3-14 points. Eagles lost three of last four games, losing 52-7 to Louisville (38-0 at half), 56-10 to Clemson (21-3 at half). BC is 6-1-1 in is last eight games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year- they’re 12-10-1 as an underdog under Addazio. ACC home favorites are 10-13 vs spread.

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[StarDust Bum]

Boston College at FSU
November 9, 2016


Florida State isn’t in the mix for an ACC Championship or a berth in the College Football Playoff, but it certainly wants to finish strong in what has been a disappointing campaign to date. The Seminoles will look to avoid a fourth loss when they host Boston College on Friday night at Doak Campbell Stadium.

As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had FSU installed as a 21-point favorite with a total of 48.5 points. Gamblers could take the Eagles on the money line for a sweet +850 payout (risk $100 to win $850).

FSU (6-3 straight up, 4-4 against the spread) has limped to a 2-2 SU record and a 1-2 ATS mark at home this year. This is just the second time the Seminoles have lost twice at home in the same season since Jimbo Fisher took over in 2010. They saw a 22-game home winning streak snapped in Week 5 when North Carolina came to Tallahassee and emerged with a 37-35 win thanks to a walk-off field goal from 54 yards out.

Since then, Fisher’s seventh team at FSU has once again gone down at home, where Clemson captured a 37-34 victory two weeks ago. Despite the setback, FSU took the cash as a 4.5-point home underdog. Dalvin Cook enjoyed a monster night against the Tigers, rushing for 169 yards and four touchdowns on just 19 attempts.

Cook’s 70-yard TD scamper put his team in front 28-20 going into the final stanza. However, Clemson answered with an early fourth-quarter TD to trim the deficit to two, and then it took a 29-28 advantage on a 46-yard Greg Huegel field goal with 5:25 remaining. Cook’s eight-yard TD run with 3:23 left staked FSU to a 34-29 lead after the two-point conversion failed.

But the defense couldn’t close the deal. Deshaun Watson found Jordan Leggett with a 34-yard scoring strike at the 2:06 mark and the Clemson defense secured the victory with a subsequent stop.

In bounce-back mode last week at North Carolina State, FSU trailed for most of the game but was able to pull out a 24-20 victory. The Wolfpack covered the number as a 6.5-point home ‘dog, while the 44 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 58-point tally.

Cook was limited to 65 rushing yards and one TD on 18 carries, but freshman QB Deondre Francois came though in the clutch. Francois, who completed 22-of-39 passes for 330 yards and one TD without an interception, found Travis Rudolph for a 19-yard TD pass with 3:09 left to lift his team to victory. Nyqwan Murray had nine receptions for 153 yards, but the ‘Noles were fortunate to win after losing the yardage battle by a 463-393 margin.

Cook has rushed for 1,134 yards to move into second place on the school’s all-time rushing list behind only Warrick Dunn. Cook needs only 127 rushing yards to surpass Dunn’s total of 3,959 yards. He has rushed for 12 TDs while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Cook also has 25 receptions for 388 yards and one TD.

Francois has established himself as the QB of the present and future. He has connected on 60.0 percent of his passes for 2,492 yards with a 12/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Francois has also rushed for three TDs.

His favorite target is Rudolph, who has 38 catches for 599 yards and four TDs. Jesus ‘Bobo’ Wilson is FSU’s second-leading receiver with 30 grabs for 390 yards and one TD, but the senior wideout was injured in a 17-6 home win over Wake Forest on Oct. 15. The foot injury is expected to keep him out for the rest of the season.

FSU owns a 23-18-1 spread record in 42 games as a home favorite on Fisher’s watch. Meanwhile, Boston College has compiled a 7-3-1 ATS mark in 11 games as a road underdog during Steve Addazio’s four-year tenure.

FSU is fielding its worst defense since 2009 when it allowed 30.0 points per game in Bobby Bowden’s last year at the helm. Through nine games, the Seminoles are ranked No. 73 in the nation in scoring defense (28.8 PPG). They are No. 95 out of 128 FBS teams in pass defense.

The secondary has greatly missed the presence of sophomore safety Derwin James, who tore his meniscus in Week 2 and hasn’t played since then. James had already recorded 11 tackles and one interception before going down. Also, starting senior safety Nate Andrews has been out since early October due to pectoral injury. Andrews had produced 18 tackles and one interception through four games.

The FSU defense is led by senior DE DeMarcus Walker, who has 51 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 11 tackles for loss, three forced fumbles, three QB hurries, one blocked kick and two passes broken up.

Boston College (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) went bowling in its first two seasons under Addazio, only to have all sorts of QB injuries and limp to a 3-9 record in 2015. BC lost five one-possession games by 14 combined points last year, wasting a season in which its defense held foes to a meager 15.3 PPG.

The defense hasn’t been as stout this year, but the stop unit has still played well. The Eagles are ranked No. 14 in the country in total defense and eighth against the run, but they remain horrendous on the other side of the ball. They are No. 126 of 128 FBS teams in total offense and No. 122 in scoring (19.4 PPG).

BC has wins at UMass (26-7), vs. Wagner (42-10), vs. Buffalo (35-3) and at N.C. State (21-14). The Eagles were destroyed at Virginia Tech (49-0), vs. Clemson (56-10) and vs. Louisville last weekend (52-7). They’ve also dropped a pair of one-possession games vs. Georgia Tech (17-14 in Dublin, Ireland) and vs. Syracuse (28-20).

U of L raced out to a 38-0 halftime lead at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill last Saturday. The Cardinals easily took the money as 24.5-point road ‘chalk,’ while the 59 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 52-point tally on Lamar Jackson’s third rushing TD with 1:57 remaining in the third quarter.

Jackson produced video-game numbers against the BC defense. The Heisman Trophy favorite threw for 231 yards and four TDs. Jackson also had 185 rushing yards on only 15 totes.

BC senior QB Patrick Towles, a grad transfer from Kentucky, completed 13-of-21 passes for 147 yards with one TD and one interception. For the season, Towles has completed just 51.0 percent of his passes for 1,293 yards with an 8/6 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 250 yards and four TDs.

The ground game has been basically non-existent for the Eagles. Jon Hilliman has rushed for a team-best 432 yards and five TDs, but he’s averaging a pedestrian 3.3 YPC. His 102-yard effort in the opener against Georgia Tech has been the lone time he’s surpassed 74 rushing yards versus an ACC foe.

Since the ‘over’ cashed in its first three games, FSU has seen the ‘under’ hit at a 4-1 clip in its last five contests. The ‘under’ is 2-1 for the ‘Noles in their three lined home outings. They have seen their games average combined scores of 62.3 PPG.

The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for BC, 2-1 in its three true road assignments. The Eagles have seen their games average combined scores of 45.7 PPG.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- FSU true freshman DE Brian Burns has had an excellent debut season, but he’s suspended for the first half against BC due to a targeting penalty in the second half of last week’s win in Raleigh. Burns has recorded 12 tackles, five TFL’s, four sacks, one forced fumble and one QB hurry.

-- Georgia Tech has suspended RB Dedrick Mills for the next two games. Mills has rushed for 578 yards and 11 TDs this year. He is eligible to return for the regular-season finale at Georgia.

-- Sportsbook.ag has updated its Games of the Year spreads. These contests include Louisville -10.5 at Houston, Stanford -6.5 at California, Texas -3 vs. TCU, Washington -7.5 at Washington St., FSU -7 vs. Florida, Ohio St. -4.5 vs. Michigan, Alabama -14 vs. Auburn, USC -17 vs. Notre Dame, Oklahoma -11 vs. Oklahoma State and Navy -7 vs. Army.

-- Alabama’s stock apparently took a hit in its 10-0 win over LSU. I say that because the oddsmaker at Sportsbook.ag have adjusted their lines for potential championship matchups. The Crimson Tide was a double-digit ‘chalk’ to every team except Michigan two weeks ago. At that time, Alabama was a 9.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. the Wolverines. Now the Tide is favored by 7.5 vs. Ohio State, 10 vs. Michigan, 8 vs. Clemson, 10 vs. Washington and 7.5 vs. Louisville.

-- Dabo Swinney announced Wednesday that four underclassmen are going pro after this year and will get to participate in Senior Day against South Carolina at Death Valley on Nov. 26. Those players include Watson, Wayne Gallman, Mike Williams and Artavis Scott.

-- Though Middle Tennessee is holding out hope that he can return for a bowl game, sophomore quarterback Brent Stockstill will miss at least the last three regular-season games after breaking his collarbone in a 45-25 home loss UTSA in Week 10. Stockstill, the C-USA Freshman of the Year and a third-team All C-USA selection as a freshman in 2015, threw for 2,801 yards with a 27/5 TD-INT ratio in the Blue Raiders’ first nine games. The head coach’s son has a 57/14 TD-INT ratio in his first two seasons.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS:

11/01/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/02/2016 1-1-0 50.00% -50
11/03/2016 3-3-0 50.00% -150
11/04/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/05/2016 26-34-0 43.33% -5700
11/08/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/09/2016 2-2-0 50.00% -100
11/10/2016 1-5-0 16.67% -2250

TRIPLE PLAYS RECORD: 66 - 57 - 6 *****

BIG TEN GOY................0 - 1 ( IOWA BIG LOSER TO WISCONSIN )
MT. WEST GOY..............1 - 0 ( WYOMING ROLLS BIG OVER UTAH ST. )
MAC UNDERDOG GOY.....1 - 0 ( KENT ST. + 21 W.MICHIGAN 37 )

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 263-257-11 50.58% -9850

O/U Picks 100-105-4 48.78% -7750

[StarDust Bum]

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 11

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BC at FSU 07:30 PM

BC +21.0 *****

U 47.0 *****

[StarDust Bum]

Florida State tops BC, 'over' comes in late
November 11, 2016

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) Florida State has had its share of struggles in Atlantic Coast Conference play. On Friday night, the Seminoles took advantage of Boston College's timely visit for their most-complete game of the season.

The 20th-ranked Seminoles grabbed the early lead and cruised to a 45-7 victory.

Florida State has had to play from behind a lot in conference play. In their previous six conference games it had scored first only once and had trailed by double digits in five.

That is why coach Jimbo Fisher said it felt weird for his team to be in control early against the Eagles.

''We need to play from ahead and finish and we did all of those things (on Friday),'' Fisher said.

The Seminoles (7-3, 4-3 ACC, No. 18 CFP) took control by scoring on their first two drives and led 14-0 at the end of the first quarter. They had been outscored 31-3 in the first 15 minutes in the previous five games.

A 6-yard TD reception by Auden Tate marked the first time FSU had scored on its opening drive since Sept. 24 at South Florida.

Dalvin Cook and Deondre Francois paced the offense. Cook rushed for 108 yards on 18 carries with a touchdown and Francois tied a season high with three touchdown passes.

Cook became only the second Seminoles back to go over 100 yards in 15 meetings against the Eagles and the first since Ricky Williams had 109 yards in 1980. He also joined Clemson's Wayne Gallman as the only ACC backs to go over the century mark against the Eagles this season.

''They were getting wore down from our passing game that we could see the long runs starting to come, especially the touchdown,'' Cook said.

Francois completed nine of his first 11 passes and finished 16 of 24 for 183 yards. The freshman suffered a bruised shoulder late in the third quarter and did not return.

The Eagles (4-6, 1-5) had three first downs on their first two drives before having nine straight three-and-outs and not getting another first down until midway through the fourth quarter. They averted a shutout with 3:21 remaining in the fourth quarter on a 1-yard touchdown run by Richard Wilson. The only other bright spot was a pair of sacks by Harold Landry, which gives him 11 for the season.

''We weren't able to move the ball which caused our defense to stay on the field too long,'' Boston College coach Steve Addazio said. ''We play a lot of good teams which will make us better in the long run. We just need to find a way to get momentum.''

CLOSING IN ON RECORD

Cook appeared like he was going to pass Warrick Dunn as Florida State's career rushing leader, but Fisher decided to rest Cook in the fourth quarter with the Seminoles up 35-0.

The junior needs 19 yards to break Dunn's mark of 3,959 yards

''It is going to be nice when I do it regardless. The feeling is going to be there to hold that record,'' Cook said.

Cook said he talked to Dunn before the Oct. 29 game against Clemson, but none of the discussions were about the record.

Fisher said that he knew Cook was close to the record, but did not want to risk injury.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

Florida State dropped a spot after last Saturday's come-from-behind victory at North Carolina State, but it should go up a couple spots after its most convincing victory of the season.

THE TAKEAWAY

Boston College: This is the first time since 2003 the Eagles have faced three ranked teams in a season. Based on the results, they might be hoping it doesn't happen anytime soon. No. 3 Clemson, No. 5 Louisville and 20th-ranked FSU outscored the Eagles 153-24.

Florida State: Quarterback Sean Maguire was able to get in on Senior Night and threw a pair of touchdowns. Maguire went into preseason practices as the starter but suffered a broken foot the first week. ''I was extremely happy,'' said Fisher of Maguire. ''He goes in and performs every time he goes in with a lot of heart and a lot of toughness.''

UP NEXT

Boston College: The Eagles step outside of conference play to host Connecticut. This will be the first meeting between the two Northeast schools since 2004.

Florida State: The Seminoles close out the ACC portion of their schedule at Syracuse. They have won eight straight over the Orange.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s six-pack

— Arizona 65, Michigan State 63— Wildcats were down 17-2 at start of the game.

— Temple 97, LaSalle 92 OT— Interesting crosstown rivalry game in Philly.

— 76ers 109, Pacers 105 OT— Sixers are last NBA team to win a game this year.

— Indiana 103, Kansas 99 OT— The national title game should be half as good a game as this one.
— Texas 78, I
ncarnate Word 73— Is CIW a sleeper in Southland Conference?

— Notable upsets Friday:

Nicholls State 79, Boston College 73
Wagner 67, UConn 58
Albany 87, Penn State 81
Chattanooga 82, Tennessee 69


Saturday’s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud……..

13) Once they get rolling later on this season and they will if they stay healthy, Golden State games will be unwatchable on League Pass, because they’re going to kill a lot of teams. If a game is 70-42 at the half, I ain’t watching the second half

On the other hand, the Lakers have become fun to watch with Luke Walton coaching in the post-Kobe era. Players seem to be enjoying the freedom to play that Walton has given them.

12) Steph Curry went 0-10 behind the arc against the Lakers last week, then 13-17 in his next game, setting the NBA record for most 3’s in a game. In next two games since then, Curry is 11-21 so a 3-game stretch of 24-38 on 3-pointers isn’t too bad.

11) There is a commercial on TV where the football coach at Dartmouth has these motorized dummies that move around the field- the team uses them to practice tackling, rather than tackling teammates and risking injuries.

Utah 49, Arizona State 26– Someone at Arizona State needs to buy about ten of those dummies, because they’re a horrible defensive team. Awful.

10) There was a conversation during the T’wolves-Nets game Tuesday night, where Nets announcers were talking about how coach Kenny Atkinson has to tell players what is a good shot for them and what isn’t. It varies, obviously, from player to player.

You would think by the time a guy gets to the NBA he would know what a good shot is, but kids are so young now when they become pros that they haven’t been coached enough to know.

9) Minnesota star Karl-Anthony Towns doesn’t turn 21 until next week; he is really good. Timberwolves have several good, young players and are lot of fun to watch.

8) Election Day is a dry day in Kentucky; can’t buy alcohol.

7) Theo Epstein’s first job in baseball was as an intern with the Orioles; the man who hired him? Calvin Hill, a fellow Yale alum and a great running back in the NFL- he is also Grant Hill’s dad and back then had a job in the Orioles’ front office.

6) In case you were wondering, New Jersey is the most densely populated state in the country.

5) No offense to anyone, but if I want to go out to eat for pancakes, I ain’t going to Burger King. Simple as that.

4) From 2012-15, Eastern Michigan’s football team was 7-41, and some connected to the school wanted to drop football. This year, the Eagles are 6-4 and bowl eligible- their only other appearance in a bowl game was back in 1987. Good for them.

3) What do the Cleveland Browns’ defensive coaches do during halftime? Over their last six games, in opponents’ first drive of the second half, they’ve run 45 plays for 437 yards and six TDs. No bueno.

2) Red flag for the Seahawks; they haven’t scored a second half TD in their last three games.

1) Sacramento Kings’ new arena is totally solar-powered, the first one ever, but shouldn’t the first solar-powered arena have been the ones the (Phoenix) Suns play in? I’m asking for a friend.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday’s best 13 games

Clemson is 9-0 and appears to have clear road to making 4-team playoff, but the way it is set up, teams have to keep running up scores to impress committee. Tigers beat Syracuse 54-0 LW, are 0-2 as home favorites this year, 13-14-1 in last 28 games as HF. Pitt allowed 90 points in losing last two games, allowed 31+ in seven of last eight games. Panthers are 1-2 as road underdogs this year, 5-3 overall under Narduzzi- they split four road games this year, with average total of 77.8 in those games. ACC home favorites are 10-13 vs spread. Clemson QB Watson dinged up his throwing shoulder LW- check status.

Navy is 3-0 at home this year, scoring 38.7 pts/game in wins by 4-6-14 points; Middies ran ball for 469 yards in LY’s 49-21 (-13) win over Tulsa; total yardage was 529-356. Navy won 28-27 over Notre Dame in Jacksonville LW- they’ve run ball for 300+ yards in last four games. Tulsa won its last three games, running ball for 330+ yards in all three games; Hurricane split their four road games this year, allowing 39.3 pts/game on foreign soil- they’re 11-4 vs spread in last 15 road games. Average total in their last six games is 79.3. AAC home underdogs are 6-6 vs spread.

Oklahoma State won its last seven games with Texas Tech (6-1 vs spread), scoring 58.4 pts/game in last five meetings. OSU won 70-53 LY. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in Tech’s last six visits to Stillwater. Red Raiders scored 40 pts/game in losing two of three road games (average total, 85.3)- they’ve scored 50+ four times but are only 2-2 in those games. Cowboys won last five games overall, scoring 42.4 pts/game- they’re 15-8 in last 23 games as a home favorite, 2-2 this year. OSU gave up 345 rushing yards LW but survived 43-37 at K-State. Big X home favorites are 9-8 vs spread.

Air Force is 7-3-1 in its last 11 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year; Flyboys clinched another Commander-in-Chief trophy LW, beating Army- they won eight of last ten games with Colorado State, with home side winning last four; Rams lost last six visits here, with dogs covering four of the six. Falcons covered only one of last five games overall. Rams won three of last four games, covered six of last seven; they’re 3-0 as a road underdog this year, losing by 7-5 points, with only win at UNLV. Mountain West home favorites are 8-11 vs spread. Four of last five Air Force games went over total.

Auburn won its last six games, winning its two road games, 38-14 at Miss State, 40-29 at Ole Miss; Tigers ran ball for 337.3 yards/game in last four SEC games. Auburn is 5-2 as road favorite under Malzahn, 2-0 this year. Georgia lost its two SEC home games by total of four points- they won eight of last ten games with Auburn; favorites covered six of last seven. Auburn lost its last four visits between hedges, losing last two by combined 79-14. Dawgs are home underdog for just 5th time in last 11 years (2-1-1). SEC home underdogs are 11-6 vs spread. Last three Georgia stayed under the total.

Kentucky had won three games in row before losing 27-24 at gun to Georgia LW; Wildcats are 7-9 as road underdogs under Stoops, 2-1 this year. Tennessee is 2-3 in SEC, scoring 28.2 pts/game; they snapped 3-game skid with win over I-AA team LW. Vols are 18-1 in its last 19 games with Kentucky, losing 50-16/52-21 last two years; they’re 7-9 as home favorites under Jones, 1-2 this year. Wildcats are 2-7 vs spread in last nine visits to Knoxville, 0-4 last four years. Tennessee gained 163-297 TY in last two SEC games. SEC home favorites are 12-6 vs spread. Five of last six Kentucky games stayed under the total.

South Carolina coach Muschamp was 28-21 in four years as Florida coach, 17-15 in SEC games; Gamecocks won four of last six games with Gators; three of last five were decided by 5 or less points. Carolina won two of last three visits here- they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five trips to Swamp. Gators are 4-0 at home, outscoring foes 101-29 (2-2 as home favorite); they’re 8-15 in last 23 games as home favorite, 2-2 this year. Gamecocks are on road for first time since Sept 24; they’re 1-2 as road underdogs, scoring 12.3 pts/game but are 3-0 since bye, scoring 29.7 pts/game. SEC home favorites are 12-6 vs spread.

Arkansas is 6-3, allowing 45+ points in all three losses; Hogs are 5-2 in last seven games as a home underdog, 2-1 this year- they allowed 264+ RY in three losses, held opponents under 200 RY in their wins. LSU scored 14-13-0 points in its three losses- they got blanked at home by Alabama LW. Tigers need to bounce back vs Razorback squad that beat Tigers 31-14/17-0 last two years; LSU lost three of last four visits here. Underdog covered last four series games. LSU is 3-8 vs spread in last 11 games as a road favorite. Arkansas is SEC home underdogs are 11-6 vs spread.

Oregon lost six of last seven games and allowed 35 points in only win; they’ve allowed 270+ RY in five of last six games. are 11-3 in last 14 games with Stanford; underdogs covered six of last eight meetings. Cardinal lost six of last seven visits here; five of six losses were by 21+ points. Stanford has only 454 TY combined in last four games; they won last two games while running for 602 yards, allowing 10-15 points over Pac-12 stiffs Arizona/OSU. Cardinal is 15-9 as road favorite under Shaw, 2-0 this year; they’re 3-1 on road this year, with only loss at Washington. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-5 vs spread.

Washington is 6-0 in Pac-12 games, with four of last five wins by 24+ points; Huskies are 9-5 as home favorites under Petersen, 3-1 this year. USC won its last five games after a 1-3 start, scoring 45+ points in last three. Trojans are 2-8 as road underdogs last five years, 0-2 this season. Underdogs covered seven of last nine USC-Washington games, including last four played in Seattle- Trojans won four of last five visits here. Huskies are 3-2 in last five series games, but gained less than 300 TY in six of last seven meetings. Pac-12 home favorites are 13-9 vs spread.

Texas is 4-0 at home, scoring 38.3 pts/game; Longhorns are 5-2-1 as home favorites under Strong, 2-0 this year- they allowed 71 points, 1,106 TY in winning last two games. West Virginia split its two true road games, losing at Oklahoma State two weeks ago; Mountaineers are a dog for first time this year; they’re 6-7 as road dogs under Holgorsen. West Virginia/Texas split last four meetings (1-1 in each stadium) with an average total of 71.8. WV lost 33-16, won 48-45 in last two visits here. Big X home favorites are 9-8 vs spread. Under is 4-1 in last five West Virginia games, 4-0 in Longhorns’ last four games.

Baylor lost its last two games after a 6-0 start, allowing 688 RY and 97 points; have to question their mental state, given chaos around program- they’re underdog for first time this year, are 4-2 as road dogs the last five years. Oklahoma won its last six games, scoring 48.5 pts/game; they’re 12-9 as home favorites the last four years, 2-1 this year. Sooners ran ball for 260+ yards in four of last six games. Bears lost eight of last nine visits to Norman, but covered eight of those nine anyway. Underdogs are 9-4 vs spread in last 13 series games; Bears are 3-2 in last five meetings overall. Big X home favorites are 9-8 vs spread.

South Florida is 7-2 but allowed 91 points, 636 rushing yards in last two games, vs Temple-Navy. Bulls are 2-1 on road, with average total, 68.7. USF is 4-2 as road favorite under Taggart, 2-1 this year. Memphis won last three games with USF by 7-11-13 points; Bulls split last two trips to Memphis, losing 31-20, winning 21-16. Tigers are 3-1 at home this year, with only loss to Tulsa; Memphis allowed 169 or less RY in its wins, 263+ in its losses- they’re 6-0 allowing less than 42 points. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games. AAC home underdogs are 6-6 vs spread.

football picks
Wyoming Cowboys, -7.5