The Bum's 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

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No. 25 Florida expects Pineiro to improve kicking fortunes
September 1, 2016

GAINESVILLE, Fla. (AP) Florida's kicking situation was the worst in the Southeastern Conference last season and among the least productive in the country.

It was so inadequate that coach Jim McElwain held open tryouts - in the middle of the season.

After two more failed field goal attempts in the regular-season finale against rival Florida State, McElwain declared ''we'll get a kicker. And we'll get a good one.''

The 25th-ranked Gators may have gotten the best one available.

Eddy Pineiro, a sophomore who attended ASA Community College in Miami last season but didn't play football, is expected to dramatically improve Florida's field-goal fortunes this fall. His first opportunity to kick in front of 90,000 will happen Saturday against UMass.

''I'm excited,'' said Pineiro, who has made a number of 70-yard-plus kicks and put them on YouTube. ''I think people exaggerate (the pressure). But if you work on the same thing every single day, why can't you do it in a game? ... You should be able to put a blindfold on and kick it because it's the same kick every single time. It's muscle memory.''

Pineiro makes it sound easy: see ball, kick ball.

But Florida learned last season just how difficult a task kicking can be.

The Gators missed five extra points and 10 field goals in 2015. They made just 7 of 17 field goals, a 41.2 percent success rate that ranked 127th out of 128 teams in the nation. McElwain used three different kickers, including a dental student added to the roster late in the year, but nothing fixed the problem.

''Seeing them go through those kicking struggles last year was pretty depressing,'' Pineiro said.

McElwain tried just about everything while experienced junior Austin Hardin, who ended up making 5 of 14 attempts, kept struggling. He turned to Jorge Powell, but the walk-on injured a knee trying to make a tackle against LSU and missed the final seven games. That prompted McElwain to open things up to Florida's student body.

More than 200 students responded to the open call, and dental student Neil MacInnes won the multistage kicking competition. Still, McElwain stuck with Hardin - the Gators ended up going for it on fourth down 27 times - while putting the full recruiting press on Pineiro.

Pineiro eventually de-committed from Alabama and enrolled at Florida in January.

He's essentially been Florida's kicker since, even though he's never kicked in a game. Pineiro was a standout soccer player at Miami Sunset High School, so his first real action came in Florida's spring game, where he made all five extra points and three lengthy field goals.

''I didn't think people were going to scream out my name after an extra point, so that was pretty interesting,'' said Pineiro, who will wear No. 15, made famous in Gainesville by Tim Tebow.

Pineiro wasn't perfect: He hit from 52, 46 and 56 yards, and missed from 53 and 52. He also had nine touchbacks on 10 kickoffs, so McElwain was clearly testing him.

The coach hasn't stopped, either.

McElwain challenges Pineiro at nearly every practice.

''Lately he's been putting the whole team around me while I'm kicking my field goal, just screaming in my ear, throwing water in my face, trying to get me off-balance and stuff,'' Pineiro said. ''So far, I'm like 4-for-4 on those, whatever you want to call them, pressure kicks. So he's happy about that.''

McElwain will be even happier if Pineiro makes them in games, something the Gators rarely did last season.

''I don't want to sit here and put all these high expectations on him,'' McElwain said. ''I mean, the guy hasn't kicked in a game yet, right? And yet all of a sudden, we're ready to say this guy is the Golden Toe Award or whatever.

''At the same time, I do know this: He has the talent to do it, and I love the way he goes about his work.''

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Missouri QB Drew Lock eager to show he has improved
September 1, 2016

COLUMBIA, Mo. (AP) Missouri quarterback Drew Lock is a different player than he was a year ago, and he's eager for the opportunity to prove it.

The season opener at West Virginia on Saturday will be his first chance to show his improvement.

Following Maty Mauk's indefinite suspension in 2015, Lock became the first freshman quarterback to start for Missouri in two decades. He was 2-6 in eight starts, completing 49 percent of his passes while amassing 1,332 yards, four touchdowns and eight interceptions. In a year marked by turmoil, including the threat of player boycotts and coach Gary Pinkel's retirement, Missouri finished a dismal 127th out of 128 FBS teams in scoring at 13.6 points per game, the worst in school history.

Lock said the Tiger's 28-3 loss at Arkansas-Pinkel's last game-was the low point of his season.

''I guess that made me a better, tougher person mentally,'' Lock said. ''I'm thankful for that now and I'm through it and it's behind me.''

Though it may not have been an enjoyable experience, Lock said the experience did help acclimate him to the level of competition.

''You hear that practice makes perfect all the time, and I truly believe that I can look back at last year, I can think of it as just a huge practice year, in the sense of getting reps, seeing what the league is like, seeing what Division-I college football is like,'' he said.

Lock knows he has to improve his numbers from a year ago, and gave specific reasons why he feels confident heading into his sophomore campaign.

''I think we're just more sound as an offense as far as what our jobs are and what the little things are we have to do to make our jobs easy,'' Lock said. ''Really, just pitching and catching the ball. Just being in the right place at the right time when you're supposed to be.''

In addition to improving mechanics or stats, Lock is also focused on honing his leadership role.

''I feel like last year, I didn't communicate very much,'' Lock said. ''I was kind of a guy that kind of stayed to myself. Ran the play, watched it after practice and kind of talked about it with coach. But instead, I'm actually going out there, I know what I'm doing, I know what they're supposed to be doing, and I'm correcting it on the field with them.''

Though only a sophomore, Lock has more experience than the majority of the quarterbacks in the Southeastern Conference. Only four quarterbacks in the conference have made more starts than Lock, all of whom are older.

''You have to have experience to become a leader,'' Lock said. ''I feel like I had a pretty rough experience last year to where people know that I've been through it.''

Offensive coordinator Josh Heupel has seen improvement in Lock since arriving during spring camp.

''I think he's got a much better understanding of defense,'' said Heupel, who coached current NFL quarterbacks Landry Jones and Sam Bradford at Oklahoma. ''I think he's got a much better understanding of fundamentals and things that he needs to do to be successful on a consistent basis.''

Lock said the offense has several goals this season, but is focused primarily on making smart plays.

''Making the right plays when we need to,'' he said. ''Just not playing scared. Just attacking the defense. Instead of more so being on our toes reacting off them, we're going to hopefully come out and play super hard and make defenses react to us.''

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No. 3 Oklahoma's challenge among 3 Big 12 openers vs. Top 15
September 1, 2016

Things to watch in the Big 12 Conference during the opening week of the season, when the league has three games against top-15 opponents.

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 3 Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Houston, in the Texas Kickoff Classic at NRG Stadium, home of the NFL's Texans. Oklahoma went to the College Football Playoff last season and is the overwhelming preseason favorite to win its 10th Big 12 title. The Sooners face a tough opening nonconference challenge in a game featuring top quarterbacks. The Cougars went 13-1 last season in the debut of head coach Tom Herman, who was coming off a national championship as Ohio State's offensive coordinator when he got to Houston. Baker Mayfield threw for 3,700 yards and 36 touchdowns for the Sooners last season, while Houston's Greg Ward Jr. was 13-0 as a starter and accounted for 38 touchdowns. Ward was one of only two FBS quarterbacks with 2,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing.

BEST MATCHUP: No. 10 Notre Dame at Texas, the same matchup that was a 38-3 wipeout for Notre Dame over the Longhorns in South Bend in last year's opener. Despite that lopsided score and Texas coach Charlie Strong coming off consecutive losing seasons to start his tenure with the Longhorns, there's hope for Texas because this opener is in Austin. These are two teams needing a positive start - the Irish are expected to contend for a playoff spot - and both have quarterback options. The Longhorns did beat Oklahoma and Baylor away from home last season, and three of their losses were by a field goal or less.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Kansas takes a 15-game losing streak into its opener against Rhode Island, an FCS team that went 1-10 last season. ... The Big 12 returns four 1,000-yard rushers from last season - Oklahoma junior Samaje Perine (1,349 yards), Iowa State sophomore Mike Warren (1,339), Baylor senior Shock Linwood (1,329) and Bears junior Johnny Jefferson (1,000). ... The only three active FBS coaches with 143 wins or more at their current schools are all in the Big 12, Kansas State's Bill Snyder (193), Oklahoma's Bob Stoops (179) and TCU's Gary Patterson (143). ... Oklahoma State has 18 starters back, including an offensive line with a combined 101 career starts.

LONG SHOT: Kansas State at No. 8 Stanford. K-State is a two-touchdown underdog Friday night when the Wildcats play the highest-ranked nonconference opponent they have ever faced in a season-opening road game. It is only the seventh time they have a true road nonconference game against a Power Five school since 1989, coach Bill Snyder's first season.

IMPACT PERFORMER: Defensive end Noble Nwachukwu has started 26 of his 35 games at West Virginia. He had 8 1/2 sacks and 13 tackles for loss last season for a Mountaineers defense that will open the season at home against SEC team Missouri, which was in the Big 12 before WVU joined the league.

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Like his NFL teams, Smith's Illini count on defense to win
September 1, 2016

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) During tackle Rob Bain's first two seasons at Illinois, the defense he was part of lacked an identity.

Statistically, it was the Big Ten's worst in a number of categories, and a key reason the Illini won 10 games combined in 2013 and '14.

Lovie Smith's best Chicago defenses were creators of chaos - picking off passes, forcing fumbles and scoring points. Smith hopes some of that brand of NFL defense pays off at Illinois, where he will coach his first game Saturday against Murray State.

That philosophy is distilled in one symbol hanging on the team's meeting room wall. It's a football on a spring, mounted on plaque that bears the words STRIP, PUNCH, YANK and, above them all, TAKEAWAYS.

''We talk a lot about takeaways,'' Smith said. ''Defensive players don't come through the doors unless they hit (the ball).''

For Bain, defensive identity starts with Smith's Tampa 2, essentially the same base defense the Bears and Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran when he was in charge of those teams and played by defensive legends like Warren Sapp, Simeon Rice and John Lynch - players the Illini say they now regularly watch clips of. Bain says linemen will need to be ''disruptors,'' creating opportunities for the players behind them.

''When you have a defensive line, just a defense designed to constantly get pressure on the quarterback and put the offense in hectic situations, I think that it's definitely a big advantage and benefit to the secondary, where they can kind of just sit back, see what's going on,'' he said. ''And there's more opportunities for them to make plays.''

Illinois' defense has frequently been a liability the past few seasons.

In 2013 and 2014 it was at or near the back of the conference in points given up, often leaving the Illini offense to try to outgun high-scoring opponents.

Similarly, the Illini didn't create many turnovers those years, finishing with a minus-10 turnover ratio in 2013 and minus-3 in 2014.

Last season was better, with 21 total turnovers, four more than the offense gave up.

But at their best, Smith's Bears were turnover machines. The 2004 and 2005 teams both allowed fewer than 20 points a game. Between them those teams forced 63 turnovers and scored nine touchdowns over 32 regular season games.

Through training camp, a lot of the talk among Illini players focused on Bain and the rest of the line: fellow tackle Chunky Clements and defensive ends Carroll Phillips and Dawuane Smoot. Between them they had 36.5 tackles for losses and 12.5 sacks, with eight of those sacks Smoot's.

They say they believe they can be one of the best lines in the country.

After facing them in practice, Illinois quarterback Wes Lunt thinks they're ready to create the kind of disruption Bain talked about.

''We're going against a great defensive line every day. When they're in your face and it's more game-like, you've got to react to it and get the ball out of your hands,'' he said.

Late in one of the last days of preseason camp, a ball thrown to a cross-field receiver popped high in the air. A defender somewhere along the way got a touch with a hand or an arm or a helmet. From behind the end zone it wasn't clear what body part or even which defender was responsible in the mass of bodies swarming the ball.

The ball came down and a defender pulled it in. It was one of those hectic moments Bain mentioned and the defense has the ball.

''More or less all defensive philosophies are the same - everyone's got to be accountable for their gaps,'' Bain explained. ''But I think this defense hones in especially on everyone running to the ball, the effort, the attitude, and everyone being playmakers.''

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SEC loads up on big games in opening weekend
September 1, 2016

Here are a few things to watch in the Southeastern Conference during college football's opening weekend.

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 11 Mississippi vs. No. 4 Florida State in Orlando, Florida. The Rebels are involved in one of the nation's premier games this week, facing the Seminoles on Monday night at the Citrus Bowl. Ole Miss returns QB Chad Kelly, who threw for more than 4,000 yards last season. Florida State will counter with redshirt freshman Deondre Francois, who will be making his first career start under center. Francois will have help on offense: RB Dalvin Cook returns after running for 1,691 yards last season.

MATCHUP OF THE WEEK: UCLA offensive tackle Conor McDermott vs. Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett: McDermott, a fifth-year senior, earned second-team all-Pac-12 honors last season as part of an offensive line that yielded only 14 sacks. McDermott will have his hands full Saturday lining up against Garrett, arguably the nation's premier pass rusher. Garrett recorded 11 + sacks as a freshman in 2014 and followed that up by delivering 12 + sacks and 19 + tackles for loss last season.

NUMBERS GAME: The SEC owns a 496-110 record and an .818 winning percentage since 2006. That's the highest nonconference winning percentage of any league during that stretch. ... No. 5 LSU owns an FBS record 52 consecutive regular-season nonconference victories heading into Saturday's game with Wisconsin. LSU hasn't lost a regular-season nonconference game since falling 26-8 to Virginia Tech in its 2002 opener. ... No. 9 Tennessee is in the top 10 for the first time since it was ranked eighth on Oct. 29, 2006. ... Missouri's visit to West Virginia marks the first time the Tigers have opened the season with a true road game since a 40-10 loss at Texas in 1996. .... No. 25 Florida has the lowest preseason ranking ever of a defending SEC East champion. Missouri was ranked 24th to start each of the last two seasons as a defending East Division champion.

LONG SHOT: Wisconsin vs. No. 5 LSU: LSU should be really good this season, but it's still surprising to see Wisconsin as a 10-point underdog, especially when it's essentially a home game for the Badgers at Lambeau Field. LSU has one of the nation's best running backs in Leonard Fournette, but needs improvement from junior quarterback Brandon Harris, who threw for 2,165 yards and 13 touchdowns last season.

IMPACT PERFORMER: Georgia quarterback Jacob Eason: This true freshman from Lake Stevens, Washington, is competing with graduate student Greyson Lambert for the right to start No. 18 Georgia's season opener Saturday against No. 22 North Carolina in Atlanta. Eason, who enrolled at Georgia in time to participate in spring practice, went 19 of 29 for 244 yards and a touchdown in the Bulldogs' spring game.

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Week 1 Line Moves
August 30, 2016

It’s being called the best-ever opening weekend of college football, and it’s a fantastic way to welcome gamblers back to the game we love most. Thank you, college football schedule makers.

While there is a healthy 16-game slate on Thursday’s betting board and 11 more on Friday, the meat of the Week 1 college football schedule is served up Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Those three days feature four games matching up ranked opponents, as well as three others we’ll characterize as elite.

Two prominent Las Vegas bookmakers, The Wynn’s John Avello and the South Point’s Chris Andrews, offered their thoughts on these seven marquee matchups.

In May, Andrews’ book posted the season’s first college football lines in Vegas.

Avello is traditionally the first oddsmaker in town to open college football betting each week during the season.

Oklahoma (-11.5, 68) vs. Houston (at NRG Field in Houston), 12:00 p.m. ET, Saturday

Andrews opened the Sooners -9.5 in May, and they were as low as -8.5 at other shops, but the line has risen steadily since. And it’s not just public money that’s backing Oklahoma.

"I’ve had sharp money show up for Oklahoma, which kind of surprised me," Andrews said.

Avello likes Oklahoma’s quality on both sides of the ball and sees Bob Stoops’ squad contending for the national championship. Houston, though, presents a tough early test.

"This will tell us a lot about their season," Avello said of the Sooners.

The game is in Houston, but be careful how much you factor that into your handicapping. It’s being played at the Texans’ home field, not the Cougars’.

Avello said he didn’t give much home-field edge to Houston when setting his number.

"That’s kind of Oklahoma’s territory also," he said. "They may have as many fans there as (Houston does)."

LSU (-10, 44.5) vs. Wisconsin (at Lambeau Field), 3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday

Count Avello among the large group of college football observers who are down on Wisconsin ahead of the season.

"Wisconsin doesn’t look good at all on paper to start of the year," he said.

That makes the Badgers’ first opponent look awfully daunting. This is the third year in a row Wiscy opens against an SEC opponent – last season, they lost 35-17 as 12.5-point underdogs to Alabama in Arlington; in 2014, they were catching just three points in a 28-24 loss to these Tigers in Houston.

While Avello gives Wisconsin some (but not full) home-field advantage in Green Bay, he believes the double-digit spread is justified.

Andrews has been writing good two-way action on the contest.

"Money’s been both ways from both the public and the sharp guys," Andrews said.

North Carolina vs. Georgia (-2.5, 57), (at Georgia Dome), 5:30 p.m. ET, Saturday

Georgia is ranked No. 18 in the preseason AP poll, and while the South Point is dealing a win total of 8.5 on the Bulldogs, Andrews is dubious on Kirby Smart’s prospects his first year in Athens.

Pro bettors at the South Point are taking the points.

"I’ve had some sharp money show up on North Carolina, and to tell you the truth, I can see it," Andrews said. "I think Georgia may be a tad overrated, and I think North Carolina is going to be very good again."

Similar to Wisconsin at Lambeau, Georgia has a slight home-field edge in Atlanta, according to Avello.

"The spread is right," he added. "I can see this game going either way."

USC vs. Alabama (-11, 53.5), (AT&T Stadium), 8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday

As one may have expected, Alabama has taken the early the money, with the spread bet from -9 to -10.5 at the South Point and -11 elsewhere.

"Mostly two-way action (early), but lately a little more Alabama money from both public and sharp guys," Andrews said.

While the Crimson Tide’s quarterback situation remains in flux, Avello is, like most bettors, unconcerned about Nick Saban’s men.

"I know that defensively they’ll be there," Avello said. "I’m not sure how good the Alabama offense will be early, but let’s not forget, there are some (great offensive) players for Alabama, other than the quarterback, who can make an impact."

Clemson (-7.5, 62) at Auburn, 9:00 p.m. ET, Saturday

Andrews opened Clemson -8, was bet down to -7 in late August, before settling at -7.5. That’s where most of Vegas sits on this game.

"I’ve had two-way action from the public and wiseguys," Andrews said. "So this looks like a pretty good betting game to me."

The offseason turmoil at Auburn has Avello rethinking his position on the Tigers.

"I was expecting a better season, but preseason, they’ve fallen apart," Avello said. "We’ll see if the coach (Gus Malzahn) can put it back together. He better put it back together – he could be on the hot seat."

Notre Dame (-3.5, 60) at Texas, 7:30 p.m. ET, Sunday

Speaking of offseason turmoil, two separate incidents on the same Friday night a few weeks ago resulted in the dismissal of Notre Dame starting safety Max Redfield and the suspension of cornerback Devin Butler.

The spread at The Wynn moved from Notre Dame -4.5 to -3.5 after the news, but action on Texas started coming in before that.

"I took some pretty good money (on Texas +4.5) before the suspensions," Avello said. "I wasn’t sure if the guys that bet it knew the suspension was coming or just liked that side."

Neither should you dismiss the Longhorns after two straight losing seasons. In both bookmakers’ opinions, Charlie Strong has this team heading in the right direction.

"I think they’re both very good teams, but Texas is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year," Andrews said. "I expect them to have a good season."

Ole Miss vs. Florida State (-4.5, 57), (at Camping World Stadium), 8:00 p.m. ET, Monday

Opening week of the 2016 college football seasons culminates with this gem, the line for which has been as high as FSU -6.5 and as low as -4.

Avello and Andrews – from a handicapping perspective, not necessarily a bookmaking one – are on different sides of the Monday nighter.

"I would lean toward Florida State just because I believe they are one of those teams that could be in the hunt for the national championship," said Avello.

Andrews counters, "A lot of people have forgotten how good Mississippi is, and no knock on Florida State – who I also think is very good – but Ole Miss is gonna be a real good team again this year and they’ve had some off the field issues, but on the field, they’re gonna be very, very good. I kind of like Mississippi in that game."

In other action….

While Andrews says the stellar quality of the best Week 1 games is resulting in excellent action at the South Point, his shop has been seeing business up and down the board.”

Ball State vs. Georgia State and Indiana vs. FIU are among the more obscure games people are betting in Week 1.

Sharps were on Indiana and Minnesota very early at the South Point, and the public has come in later at much bigger numbers. The Hoosiers opened -3 at Andrews’ shop and were bet up to -9.5; the Gophers opened -7.5 at home vs. Oregon State and moved to -12.5.

Georgia State has been another wiseguy play, as the Panthers have been bet from +5.5 to +3.5.

Pros, Avello added, took Kansas State and the two touchdowns-plus vs. highly-regarded Stanford.

Of course, most the action will come the day of the games, when Avello sees public bettors doing what they usually do: playing the chalk.

"I think the public’s gonna bet some of the big favorites," Avello said. "They’re gonna lay the Louisvilles against the Charlottes, Tennessee against Appalachian State, Iowa against Miami (Ohio) and Ohio State against Bowling Green. The typical good team vs. bad team matchups."

Odds Subject to Change – Updated 8.30.16 – 5:00 p.m. ET

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Final Four Consensus Picks
August 30, 2016

The college football season is here with plenty of intrigue in the opening weekend. Heading into the third year of the four-team college football playoff, teams have the wiggle room to lose a game, but the goal is to still finish undefeated to avoid getting squeezed from the Final Four.

Our stable of handicappers has provided which teams will make it to the college football playoff and who will be raising the championship trophy in Tampa on January 9. The most popular team picked to win the title was the one that came up short in the desert last season.

Veteran handicapper Scott Rickenbach believes Clemson will get over the hump this season and capture the national championship, “Though the defense is short on experience, the offense is absolutely loaded with talent. Clemson has won 17 of 19 with Deshaun Watson at QB and he is surrounded by talent with a deep and athletic unit leading a dangerously potent offense. Defensive Coordinator Brent Venables does a great job with this defense and it should not be overlooked that he got the job done last year after losing 9 starters from the prior season. Clemson has lost 7 starters from the defense heading into 2016, but don't be surprised if Venables again does enough with this defense to punch a return ticket to the championship game for the Tigers.”

What about Clemson’s arch-nemesis in the ACC? Marc Lawrence feels the title will return to Tallahassee, “The only Power Five team in the country to return all 11 starters on offense, Florida State is one of only two teams in the nation with 4 consecutive BCS/New Year’s Day Six bowl appearances (Alabama the other). FSU played 29 freshmen last year (3rd most in the nation) and face their toughest foes at home this season - with a bye week before Clemson - where they own a nation best 21-game home win streak. Fisher is 10-1 SU the last four years versus undefeated foes, including 7-0 at Doak Campbell Stadium. Prepare for the War Chant.”

An SEC team will likely be in the college football playoff as VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson predicts big things for Louisiana State, “The SEC West champion has made the college football playoff in both seasons and this looks like a season where two SEC teams making the field might be a possibility as undefeated champions in the Big Ten and Pac-12 look unlikely. Alabama plays at LSU on November 5 and that game will be expected to be a huge game in the SEC and national playoff races. Last season’s team featured one of the worst LSU defenses in the 11 years that Les Miles has led the program and the Tigers still went 9-3. With almost the entire starting defense returning for 2016 plus the addition of excellent defensive coordinator Dave Aranda, LSU should improve defensively and the offense should remain formidable after gaining 6.1 yards per rush last season led by Leonard Fournette.

Nelson continues, “There are some challenging games away from home including an opener vs. Wisconsin as well as games at Auburn and at Florida but this team should be in position to be playing well in the first half of the season. It won’t be a surprise if this year’s title game is repeat matchup between the SEC West and the ACC Atlantic champions with the head-to-head winners between Florida State and Clemson and LSU and Alabama being the top candidates.”

Oklahoma fell short of the national championship game last season but college football expert Brian Edwards is sold on the Sooners returning to the playoff, “I have Oklahoma fourth in my preseason Power Rankings, but I believe Bob Stoops's squad has the easiest path to the CFP. For starters, I think OU can get to the semifinals with an 11-1 record, as I don't have any teams going through the regular season undefeated this year. With that in mind, it will be to the Sooners' advantage to not have to play an extra game like others during the first weekend of September. OU has a great QB-RB combination in Baker Mayfield and Samaje Perine and is solid in all areas. The Sooners get Houston at NRG Stadium where plenty of OU fans will fit in the stands. They have Ohio State at home and get two weeks to prepare for their toughest road test at TCU. There are other hurdles, including at Texas Tech, Baylor at home, at West Virginia and the Bedlam showdown against Oklahoma State in Norman. OU will get bitten once, but that's all.”

One of the under the radar teams to keep an eye on according to handicapper John Fisher is Tennessee, “The Vols will shock the world by taking the title this year. If they can get by their nemesis Florida, who they have lost to 11 straight times and Alabama, don't be surprised to see the Vols beat LSU in SEC Championship to represent the SEC in the Final Four. They get both ‘Bama and Florida at home. They return a potent offense led by QB Joshua Dobbs, RBs Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara and an experienced WR core. Last year, they lost to Alabama, Florida, Oklahoma, and Arkansas by a total of 17 points. Coach Butch Jones brought in defensive coordinator Bob Shoop to help the Vols become physically and mentally tougher this year and win those close games. They will be focused and ready to take the crown.”

NCAA FOOTBALL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

Playoff team #1 Playoff team #2 Playoff team #3 Playoff team #4 Champion

Andy Iskoe Clemson Alabama Ohio State UCLA Clemson

Antony Dinero Florida State LSU Ohio State Stanford LSU

ASA Ohio State Stanford Clemson LSU Clemson

Bill Marzano Clemson Oklahoma Alabama Stanford Clemson

Brian Edwards Clemson Michigan Alabama Oklahoma Clemson

Bruce Marshall Clemson Alabama Oklahoma Michigan Clemson

Chip Chirimbes Ohio State UCLA Alabama Oklahoma Ohio State

Christian Alexander Florida State Alabama Oklahoma Washington Oklahoma

Dave Cokin Ohio State Clemson Alabama Washington Ohio State

Doc's Sports Ohio State Alabama Stanford Clemson Stanford

Don Anthony Alabama Ohio State Oklahoma Florida State Ohio State

Greg Smith Ohio State Florida State Tennessee Oklahoma Ohio State

Jim Feist Alabama Stanford Oklahoma LSU LSU

Jimmy Mack Alabama Florida State Tennessee Oklahoma Oklahoma

Jimmy Boyd Ohio State Clemson LSU Oklahoma Clemson

Joe Nelson Florida State Oklahoma LSU Notre Dame LSU

Joe Williams Ohio State LSU Alabama Florida State Alabama

John Fisher Tennessee Clemson Michigan Washington Tennessee

KellyInVegas Clemson Michigan Florida Oklahoma State Clemson

Kevin Rogers LSU Iowa Oklahoma Clemson LSU

Kyle Hunter Florida State Clemson LSU Oklahoma Florida State

Marc Lawrence Florida State Alabama LSU Oklahoma Florida State

Mark Franco Clemson TCU Michigan Alabama Michigan

Micah Roberts Ohio State Clemson LSU Oklahoma LSU

Neil the Greek Tennessee Florida State Houston Notre Dame Tennessee

Pat Hawkins LSU Alabama Florida State Washington LSU

Paul Bovi Oklahoma Alabama Florida State Ohio State Oklahoma

Scott Rickenbach LSU Oklahoma Clemson Michigan Clemson

Stephen Nover Ohio State Alabama Tennessee Clemson Tennessee

Vince Akins Oklahoma Clemson Alabama Michigan Oklahoma

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Mississippi-Florida State Capsule
September 1, 2016


Monday

No. 11 Mississippi (10-3 last season) vs. No. 4 Florida State (10-3) in Orlando, Florida, 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Line: Florida State by 4.

Series Record: Ole Miss leads 1-0.

WHAT'S AT STAKE

With 17 returning starters, Florida State would like to show that the early expectations of being a College Football Playoff contender are valid. Ole Miss lost 14 starters off last year's team but has one of the nation's top quarterbacks in Chad Kelly, who threw for 4,042 yards last season which was the third-most in SEC history.

KEY MATCHUP

Ole Miss LT Rod Taylor vs. Florida State DE DeMarcus Walker. Taylor, a 6-foot-3, 329-pound junior is getting his fifth career start but first at left tackle. The previous four were at right guard. Walker, a 6-4, 280-pound senior, had 10.5 sacks last season and could get more rushing opportunities due to the emergence of sophomore LB Josh Sweat.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Mississippi: WR Quincy Adeboyejo. The senior was second on the team in receptions (38) and yards (604) with seven touchdowns last season. His 15.9 yards per catch were seventh in the SEC.

Florida State: RB Dalvin Cook. Set a single-season school rushing record with 1,691 yards last season. The junior tied for the FBS lead last year with 22 carries of 20 yards or more.

FACTS & FIGURES

QB Deondre Francois is the fourth freshman in Florida State history to start an opener. The last was Jameis Winston, who led the Seminoles to a national title in 2013. ... Florida State is 8-0-2 in games played in Orlando, including 5-0-1 in regular-season games. ... This is the first time Ole Miss has played a game in Orlando. ... The Rebels are 3-3 under coach Hugh Freeze against teams ranked in the top five. ... In neutral-site openers, the Seminoles are 8-1 and have won their last seven. The Rebels have played only one, defeating Boise State 35-13 in Atlanta in 2014.

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Brady to be honorary captain at Michigan during suspension
August 31, 2016

ANN ARBOR, Mich. (AP) Tom Brady has found at least one thing to do during his suspension.

The New England Patriots quarterback will return to his alma mater to be Michigan's honorary captain Sept. 17 when it hosts Colorado.

Brady will sit out the first four games of the NFL season, serving a suspension because of his role in what has become known as ''Deflategate.'' The Patriots drafted Brady out of Michigan in the sixth round in 2000 after he shared time as senior with Drew Henson.

Michael Jordan will serve as honorary captain for the seventh-ranked Wolverines on Saturday when they open the season against Hawaii. Michigan is the first and only college or pro football team to wear Jordan Brand apparel, cleats and shoes.

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 1
September 1, 2016

2015 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 3-9 0-8 5-6-1 2-10

Clemson 14-1 9-0 8-7 9-6

Duke 8-5 4-4 7-6 6-7

Florida State 10-3 6-2 8-5 5-8

Georgia Tech 3-9 1-7 3-9 6-6

Louisville 8-5 5-3 7-6 6-6-1

Miami (Fla.) 8-5 5-3 7-6 6-7

North Carolina 11-3 8-1 8-6 8-6

North Carolina State 7-6 3-5 6-7 7-6

Pittsburgh 8-5 6-2 6-7 6-6-1

Syracuse 4-8 2-6 8-4 10-2

Virginia 4-8 3-5 8-3-1 6-5-1

Virginia Tech 7-6 4-4 6-7 6-7

Wake Forest 3-9 1-7 6-6 5-6-1

Charlotte at Louisville (Thurs. - ESPN3, 7:00 p.m. ET)

The Cardinals enter the season in the Top 25, and they have no plans to fall out by losing their opener to the new kid on the block, Charlotte. Charlotte wrapped up the 2015 season going 0-4-2 ATS in their final six games, and 1-3-1 ATS in their final five road outings. Louisville has covered in 15 of their past 18 games against Conference USA opponents, while covering in eight of their past 11 games in the month of September. The Cardinals are led by QB Lamar Jackson, who has the potential to be one of the best players not only in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but the entire country. The Cards open as a 39 1/2-point favorite. As a favorite of 25 or more points over the past two seasons, Louisville is 3-0 ATS.

Tulane at Wake Forest (Thurs. - ESPN3, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Tulane heads to Winston-Salem as a 17-point underdog for their opener at Wake Forest. The Green Wave have failed to cover in each of their past six against ACC opponents, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five tilts in the month of September. Both teams are 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on Thursday night. Tulane is looking to wash the sour taste out of their mouth following a disappointing 2015. They have a new coach, new quarterback and new attitude, looking to improve on offense after finishing 123rd out of 128 FBS teams. John Wolford is back under center for his third season at the helm of the Deacs' offense, and he should give way to dual-threat option Kendall Hinton on occasion. The Demon Deacons have the pieces in place to have a much more explosive offense.

Georgia Tech vs. Boston College -- from Dublin, Ireland (ESPN2, 7:30 a.m. ET)

The Ramblin' Wreck and Eagles will do battle in Aviva Stadium in Dublin, with Georgia Tech installed as a field goal favorite. Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in their past five neutral-site games, while Boston College is 3-8 ATS in their past 11 neutral-site battles. After all of the travel, and the trends for each of these two sides, the 'under' might be the play. The under went 4-1 in Georgia Tech's past five games last season, while the under is 7-3 in B.C.'s past 10 neutral site games, 34-15-2 in their past 51 conference tilts and 36-16-1 in their past 53 on grass. Boston College's offense was horrific down the stretch last season, and figures to be improved. But seeing is believing.

Georgia vs. North Carolina -- from Atlanta, Ga. (ESPN, 5:30 p.m.)

The Bulldogs and Tar Heels will battle in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta in one of the marquee games of the weekend. This game figures to have a very strong Bulldogs crowd despite being a 'neutral site'. UNC hasn't performed very well over the years in neutral-site games, either, going 0-4 ATS in their past four such games, while turning in a 3-7 ATS mark in their past 10 non-conference tilts and 2-7 ATS record in their past nine games in the month of September. Georgia, on the other hand, is 4-1 ATS in their past five against ACC foes while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 non-conference battles.

Clemson at Auburn (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)

Clemson heads to the Plains for a battle with Auburn in a primetime matchup on Saturday, with all eyes seeing if the ACC can step out of the shadow of the mighty Southeastern Conference, at least for one weekend. The last time these two sides met resulted in a 26-19 Tigers win, also at Auburn, back on Sept. 1, 2012. QB DeShaun Watson and company enter as touchdown favorites, looking to improve upon their 6-1 ATS mark in their past seven games in the month of September. The Tigers are also 6-2 ATS in their past eight non-conference tussles, which is a far cry from Auburn's 1-8 ATS record over their past nine outside of the SEC. Auburn has also failed to cover six straight in September, and they're 1-10 ATS in their past 11 games at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Mississippi vs. Florida State -- from Orlando, Fla. (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)

Last, but certainly not least, the retooled Ole Miss Rebels head to Orlando to battle the Florida State Seminoles in the final game of the opening weekend of action. Mississippi is looking to reload after losing WR Laquon Treadwell, OT Laremy Tunsil and DE Robert Nkemdiche, three players who helped Hotty Toddy become a household hashtag on Twitter over the past couple of seasons in Oxford. They still have QB Chad Kelly, an NFL prospect. However, he is behind an inexperienced offensive line facing a Florida State front which is all likely to be playing on Sundays at some point. The quarterback situation in Tallahassee is a lot less experience, as Deondre Francois takes the reins of Jimbo Fisher's offense. To make his transition a lot more comfortable, he has the luxury of handing off to RB Dalvin Cook early and often. The Seminoles might get off to a slow start as their offense takes time to jell, but Cook will be the difference in this one. However, Ole Miss is 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in their past five on a neutral field. That might be why FSU opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite and the line has been bet down to the neighbor of -4 to -4 1/2.

Other Games

William & Mary at North Carolina State (Thurs. - ESPN3, 7:30 p.m.)

Colgate at Syracuse (Fri. - ESPN3, 7:00 p.m.)

Liberty at Virginia Tech (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

Villanova at Pittsburgh (ESPN3, 1:30 p.m.)

Richmond at Virginia (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

North Carolina Central at Duke (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)

Florida A&M at Miami-Florida (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 1
August 30, 2016

2015 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 7-6 3-6 6-7 10-3

Arizona State 6-7 4-5 6-7 6-7

California 8-5 4-5 6-7 5-8

Colorado 4-9 1-8 5-7-1 4-9

Oregon 9-4 7-2 7-6 9-4

Oregon State 2-10 0-9 3-9 6-6

Southern California 8-6 6-4 6-8 6-7-1

Stanford 12-2 9-1 10-4 8-6

UCLA 8-5 5-4 5-7-1 4-8-1

Utah 10-3 6-3 6-7 7-6

Washington 7-6 4-5 8-5 5-8

Washington State 9-4 6-3 10-3 5-8


Oregon State at Minnesota (Thurs. - Big Ten, 9:00 p.m. ET)

The Beavers head to the Twin Cities to open their campaign Thursday night, and they line has jumped from an open of 10 points to Minnesota being favored by 13 currently. Oregon State has a new sheriff in town, as transfer Darell Garretson takes the reins of the offense. He was recruited to Utah State by head coach Gary Andersen, and he redshirted last season. He'll have a big target in Jordan Villamin, who might not be the next Brandin Cooks, but he has some good size and speed. Paul Lucas gives Garretson another big target, as it looks like the offense should be a little more prolific in 2016. The problem for the Beavs is on defense, where they were gashed on the ground. And Minnesota has a strong rushing attack, led by Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith.

Colorado State vs. Colorado - from Denver, Colo. (Fri. - ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET)

The Buffaloes opened as nine-point favorites, but have quickly been bet down to near a touchdown. The public is all over Colorado State, who enter this game 11-2-1 ATS in their past 14 non-conference performances. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings in this rivalry, while the under has cashed in seven of the past eighth in the series. The under might be a popular play, as it is 4-0 in the past four neutral-site games for the Rams, and 5-2 in their past seven non-conference battles while going 8-2-1 in their past 11 against the Pac-12 Conference. The under is 4-1 in the past five non-conference tilts for the Buffs, 5-1 in their past six neutral-site games and 4-0 in their past four against Mountain West foes.

Kansas State at Stanford (Fri. - FS1, 9:00 p.m. ET)

The Wildcats named Jesse Ertz as their starting signal caller after a battle in preseason, but the real story of this game, and any time Stanford plays, is Christian McCaffrey. K-State returns plenty of firepower on both sides of the football, and they have an experienced linebacking corps and front seven that should at least hold McCaffrey under his regular video-game like numbers. K-State enters as more than a two-touchdown underdog, but they have the guns to at least keep the Cardinal within sight. The Cardinal replace long-time starting QB Brian Hogan with Ryan Burns, but again, his transition will be easier with McCaffrey taking off the pressure. Sometimes it takes Stanford a little while to get going. Remember last season when they lost 16-6 at Northwestern to start the season? Or 2014 when they fell at home to USC 13-10 in their first game against an FBS opponent? Or their scare in 2012 when they eeked out a 20-17 win against San Jose State in the opener despite being favored by 25? They're 0-4 ATS in the past four seasons in their first game against an FBS opponent, and K-State might be the best one during the entire stretch and they're catching 16 points at some shops.

Rutgers at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m.)

Washington opened as 24-point favorites, and the public has bet the line up to 26 1/2 points. Everyone loves the Huskies this season, as they're the sexy pick in the Pac-12. For the first game, a lot probably has to do with the fact the Scarlet Knights lost one of their only legitimate offensive threats in WR Leonte Carroo, and the fact they are playing under new head coach Chris Ash. For U-Dub, Chris Petersen enters his third season, and looks to finally bring some of the success he had at Boise State to Seattle after middling results in the first two campaigns. The Huskies defense should be nasty, and it's hard to see the Scarlet Knights doing much offensively. Washington has eight starters back from the top-ranked defense in the Pac-12 from a year ago. Washington allowed a total of 11 touchdown passes all season in 2015, lowest in the league. If Rutgers is to do anything offensively, that is where they have to be successful wth Chris Laviano. For Washington, the pieces are in place on offense, too, as Jake Browning enters his second season under center after a farily successful campaign as a true frosh. Myles Gaskins looks like the next solid Washington back. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their past five against Pac-12 foes, and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 non-conference games, but the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their past four non-conference tilts.

UCLA at Texas A&M (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)

The Bruins head down deep in the heart of Texas to take on the Aggies and the 12th man in College Station in one of the marquee games of the opening weekend of college pigskin. The Aggies are a field goal favorite to top Josh Rosen and the Bruins. Over the past two seasons A&M has opened the season 5-0, but this is their biggest test yet. They will be without WR Speedy Noil, as he is suspended for this game, as well as WR Quartney Davis (ACL) and LB Josh Walker, also suspended. The Aggies have one of the best pass rushers in the country in DE Myles Garrett, but the UCLA offensive line allowed just 12 sacks of their star quarterback Rosen last season, so they should be able to neutralize Garrett. The Bruins are 6-0 ATS in their past six against SEC opponents, but 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight against non-conference foes. A&M covered just one of their final eight games lat season, including 0-4 ATS in their final four at Kyle Field.

Southern California vs. Alabama - from Arlington, Tex. (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)

USC's brutal schedule starts with the defending national champion Crimson Tide in the Metroplex. The Trojans are just 1-5 ATS in their past six neutral-site games, so this will be a test. The Tide opened as a 10-point favorite and the line quickly climbed to 11 1/2. Both sides will be breaking in a new quarterback, and for the Tide it is uncertain exactly who that will be. Junior Cooper Bateman and redshirt freshman Blake Barnett will be the signal callers for Bama, and they should both see the field Saturday night. The Trojans have settled on Max Browne to run their offense, and he'll have the dynamic Juju Smith-Schuster on the receiving end of his throws. The Trojans certainly have the horses on offense to hang with the Tide, who might be a bit disjointed offensively to start. This is the first meeting between these two historic programs since the Aloha Bowl in 1985.

Brigham Young vs. Arizona - from Glendale, Ariz. (FS1, 10:30 p.m.)

The Cougars and Wildcats butt heads in the home of the Arizona Cardinals late Saturday night, and it will be a good game. Vegas has installed BYU as a slight favorite or pick 'em. Arizona should have the home crowd on its side against BYU, and they have the most dynamic tailback in the game with RB Nick Wilson. They'll need a good run game with the Wildcats uncertain at the quarterback spot. Anu Solomon and Brandon Dawkins are each expected to see time under center. The Cougars have a much better quarterback situation with Taysom Hill (foot) back from a fractured foot. He will start ahead of Tanner Mangum, who did big things once Hill went down. Offensive coordinator and former BYU great Ty Detmer returns to his alma mater as the offensive coordinator, installing a pro-style offense. When they're not slinging the ball, Jamaal Williams will be toting the rock with authority.

Other games
Southern Utah at Utah (Fri. - Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)
Cal-Davis at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 5:00 p.m.)
Eastern Washington at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m.)
Northern Arizona at Arizona State (Pac-12 Network, 10:45 p.m.

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Report - Week 1
August 31, 2016

2015 BIG 12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Baylor 10-3 6-3 6-6 8-5

Iowa State 3-9 2-7 6-5-1 4-7-1

Kansas 0-12 0-9 3-9 6-6

Kansas State 6-7 3-6 6-7 8-5

Oklahoma 11-2 8-1 9-4 8-5

Oklahoma State 10-3 7-2 6-7 8-5

Texas 5-7 4-5 5-7 5-7

Texas Christian 11-2 7-2 7-6 6-7

Texas Tech 7-6 4-5 7-5-1 10-3

West Virginia 8-5 4-5 5-8 4-9

Kansas State at Stanford (Fri. - FOX Sports 1, 9:00 p.m. ET)

The Wildcats named Jesse Ertz as their starting signal caller after a battle in preseason, but the real story of this game, and any time Stanford plays, is Christian McCaffrey. K-State returns plenty of firepower on both sides of the football, and they have an experienced linebacking corps and front seven that should at least hold McCaffrey under his regular video-game like numbers. K-State enters as more than a two-touchdown underdog, but they have the guns to at least keep the Cardinal within sight. The Cardinal replace long-time starting QB Brian Hogan with Ryan Burns, but again, his transition will be easier with McCaffrey taking off the pressure. Sometimes it takes Stanford a little while to get going. Remember last season when they lost 16-6 at Northwestern to start the season? Or 2014 when they fell at home to USC 13-10 in their first game against an FBS opponent? Or their scare in 2012 when they eeked out a 20-17 win against San Jose State in the opener despite being favored by 25? They're 0-4 ATS in the past four seasons in their first game against an FBS opponent, and K-State might be the best one during the entire stretch and they're catching 16 points at some shops.

Oklahoma vs. Houston (ABC, 12:00 p.m. ET)

The No. 3 Sooners and No. 15 Cougars do battle at NRG Stadium in Houston in another marquee game from the great state of Texas. This game features a pair of impressive quarterbacks as Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma and Greg Ward Jr. of Houston can really sling it. And Ward is dangerous with his feet, too, as he threw for 2,828 yards, ran for 1,100 yards and accounted for a total of 38 touchdowns. As such, many people are touting Houston as the top contender in the Group of Five. A signature win over Oklahoma in their home city would certainly be a huge feather in their cap. If the Cougars are going to get that win they'll need to try and slow RB Samaje Perine, who posted 16 rushing touchdowns to lead the Big 12 last season. The Sooners opened as a 10-point favorite and the line climbed to 12 1/2 points. The public likes Oklahoma despite the fact the Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their past four neutral-site games while the Cougs are 7-2 ATS in their past nine neutral-site affairs.

Missouri at West Virginia (FOX Sports 1, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Mizzou heads to Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, entering as 10-point underdogs. It's a tale of two teams in the month of September, as the SEC's Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their past four tilts in the month, while the Mountaineers are a solid 5-2 ATS in their past seven in the opening month of the season. Missouri's offense was putrid last season, and they'll have to be much, much better if they're to have a shot against Skyler Howard and company in Morgantown. The Tigers do not have the caliber offense to come from behind, so if West Virginia can generate a few early scores it could be lights out in a hurry for the Tigers and their side bettors. Mizzou has the type of defense to keep them in the game, however West Virginia is far more superior on the offensive side of the ball. 'Under' (50) could be the play, as the under is 5-0 in Missouri's past five road outings, 4-0 in their past four non-conference tilts and 12-2 in their past 14 non-conference games. For West Virginia, the under is 6-1 in their past seven at home, 8-2 in their past 10 in September and 9-4 in their past 13 non-conference battles.

Notre Dame at Texas (Sun. - ABC, 7:30 p.m.)

Your wife or girlfriend will be so excited to see you on the couch, feet propped up with a beer watching more college football Sunday night after a full slate of games Saturday. If she took the time to sit and watch with you, she would see an Irish offensive attack which should be very dangerous. RBs Tarean Folston and Josh Adams are strong tailbacks running behind an experience veteran offensive line. QBs Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer are also fabulous with their arm as well as their feet, and they'll give the Texas defense fits all night. Still, the Longhorns finally have the pieces in place in their backfield to fire right back at the Notre Dame defense with D'Onta Foreman and Chris Warren II running hard. Freshman QB Shane Buechele, son of former Texas Rangers third baseman Steve Buechele, makes his first start in a tough situation with no tune-up game to get situated. Can he handle the national pressure and spotlight in a marquee game? That's the biggest question. If so, the eyes of Texas will be smiling on him.

Other Games
Northwestern State at Baylor (Fri. - NO TV, 7:30 p.m.)
Southeastern Louisiana at Oklahoma State (NO TV, 3:30 p.m.)
Rhode Island at Kansas (ESPN3, 7:00 p.m.)
Northern Iowa at Iowa State (NO TV, 8:00 p.m.)
South Dakota State at Texas Christian (NO TV, 8:00 p.m.)
Stephen F. Austin at Texas Tech (NO TV, 8:00 p.m.)

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Thursday games…….added notes

Indiana (-7.5) beat FIU 36-22 at home LY, outgaining Panthers 439-406; Hoosiers are 3-2 as road favorites under Wilson. Since 2012, FIU is 7-12 as home dog; they’re got veteran QB and all five starters back on OL. Indiana has new QB starting this year. Last five years, teams from C-USA are 11-8 vs spread when facing a Big 14 team.

Charlotte was 3-6-2 vs spread LY, its first as a I-A team- they lost 58-10 at Kentucky. Louisville is 11-19 as home favorites the last five years; they play Syracuse/Florida State next two weeks, will use this as a tuneup. Cardinals have 17 starters back; this will get ugly if they want it to. Last four years, C-USA teams are 4-6 vs spread when facing an ACC squad.

Wake Forest had only 6 seniors LY; now they’ve got an experienced team, with junior QB (22 starts), 4 starters back on OL. This is first time since ’08 they’re double digit fave against a I-A team. Tulane has new QB, new coach, only 5 starters back on offense; Green Wave is 10-11-1 as road dog the last four years. Last year, AAC teams were 8-2 vs spread when facing an ACC squad.

Western Kentucky was +5 in turnovers, passed for 424 yards in 49-10 win at Rice LY; WKU is 7-3 as home favorites under Brohm- Hilltoppers play Alabama next week, could be looking ahead. Rice is 2-5-1 as road underdogs last two years; Owls have 9 starters back on defense, but QB is a new starter- their OL is young. Underdogs covered WKU’s first lined game the last five years.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Thursday, September 1

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Thursday's college football game of the day: Appalachian State at Tennessee
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Senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs and junior running back Jalen Hurd lead a talented Tennessee offense.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at Tennessee Volunteers (-20, 61.5)

Tennessee takes its highest preseason national ranking since 2005 into Thursday’s season opener when the No. 9 Volunteers host dangerous Appalachian State. Senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs and junior running back Jalen Hurd lead a talented offense and first-year coordinator Bob Shoop takes over a Tennessee defense that is capable of making an impact in the SEC East.

“We have to embrace the expectations,” Dobbs told Gridironnow.com. “It’s our only option. When you downplay something, it means you don’t have the confidence you should have. You can’t shy away from the spotlight.” Appalachian State coach Scott Satterfield told reporters, “I think starting the season, (the Volunteers are) ahead of where Clemson was starting the season last year,” and much of Tennessee’s success may hinge on Dobbs (15 passing touchdowns, 11 rushing in 2015). The Volunteers won their final six games a season ago and Hurd compiled 401 yards rushing in the last three. The Volunteers will be challenged by the Mountaineers, who have won 17 of their last 19 games after edging Ohio in the 2015 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl and return 17 starters -- led by senior running back Marcus Cox (1,423 rushing yards last season).

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network. LINE: Tennessee –20

LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened as 21.5-point favorites but the public felt that point spread was a little bit too big and bet the line down to -20. The total opened at 57.5 and has been rising steadily all week - currently sitting at 61.5. View complete line history here.

WEATHER: There is a 40 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms Thursday night in Knoxville, Tennessee. Temperatures will be warm (mid 80's) and humid (60 percent) with a slight 5-10 mph breeze blowing throughout the game.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The action on this game is all pointing to Tennessee. 85% on the moneyline, 86% on the -21 side and the 61 point total is getting 88% of the action on the OVER."

ABOUT APPALACHIAN STATE (2015: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS, 6-7 O/U): Cox ran for nine scores last season and he will get solid support from sophomore Jalin Moore, who added 731 yards rushing – 528 in the final four games of 2015. Junior quarterback Taylor Lamb runs the show after registering 31 touchdowns passes and nine interceptions last year, but will have an inexperienced receiving corps to work with. The Mountaineers lost defensive end Ronald Blair – a fifth-round NFL draft pick – but linebacker John Law leads the way for a defense that returns eight starters.

ABOUT TENNESSEE (2015: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 O/U): One of the keys for Dobbs will be improving on a 59.6 completion percentage and coach Butch Jones told reporters his receiving group is a “work in progress.” Junior receivers Josh Malone and Josh Smith, along with junior tight end Ethan Wolf, each finished with at least 300 yards through the air last season and freshman wide-out Tyler Byrd could make an immediate impact. Junior running back Alvin Kamara (698 rushing yards rushing, 34 receptions) gives the Volunteers a dual threat, but Tennessee’s rebuilt offensive line is a concern.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Volunteers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Under is 5-0 in Mountaineers last 5 games in September.
* Over is 19-7 in Volunteers last 26 games in September.

CONSENSUS: When taking a peek at the consensus data, Tennessee is garnering a steady stream of the spread picks at 73 percent. In early returns, Over is picking up 68 percent of the O/U wagers.

[StarDust Bum]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR SEPT.

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 1-0-0 100.00% +500

O/U Picks 1-0-0 100.00% +500


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 1

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

UTM at CIN 07:00 PM

UTM +37.5


CHAR at LOU 07:00 PM

LOU -38.5


ME at CONN 07:00 PM

CONN -27.0


TULN at WAKE 07:00 PM

TULN +15.0


PRE at CMU 07:00 PM

PRE +37.5


IND at FIU 07:30 PM

FIU +10.5


APP at TENN 07:30 PM

TENN -21.0


CWM at NCST 07:30 PM

NCST -19.0


WEB at USU 08:00 PM

USU -22.5


RICE at WKU 08:00 PM

WKU -16.5

O 64.5


SUU at UTAH 08:00 PM

SUU +28.0


SOCAR at VAN 08:00 PM

VAN -5.0


MTST at IDHO 09:00 PM

MTST +14.5


SDAK at UNM 09:00 PM

UNM -17.5


ORST at MINN 09:00 PM

MINN -12.5


JKST at UNLV 10:00 PM

JKST +39.0