The Bum's 2016 College Football Best Bets,Trends,Stat, News !!

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High-powered #10 Notre Dame faces Texas Sep. 4

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (0-0)
at TEXAS LONGHORNS (0-0)
Kickoff: Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Notre Dame -4.5, Total: N/A

In a rematch from last season’s opening weekend, #10 Notre Dame is hunting for a national title while Texas desperately needs to right the ship.

Notre Dame began and ended the season with a #11 ranking, going 10-2 in the regular season with away losses to elite teams in Clemson and Stanford. As 3.5-point underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl, the Irish fell 44-28 to Ohio State. Though head coach Brian Kelly lost a load of talent to the NFL on both sides of the ball, the Irish expect to compete for a Playoff berth with an explosive offense and an inexperienced but promising defense. A key to the season will be the handling of QBs Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer, both outstanding playmakers who will get reps during Week 1. Kelly also has the luxury of rotating two strong options at RB, Tarean Folston and Josh Adams. Despite huge losses on defense, the Irish have a stable of talented underclassman ready to step up. Texas is coming off their first back-to-back losing seasons since the 1980s, placing head coach Charlie Strong squarely on the hot seat in his third season. New offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert is installing a fast-paced, hopefully high-scoring system, and freshman QB Shane Buechele has looked ready for primetime since arriving in Austin. The combination of a beefy, bruising backfield and tall, game-breaking outside receivers will be tough for opposing defenses to handle. A disappointing Longhorns defense will rely on the recruiting class to supply a run-stopping presence up front, while a young secondary is expected to take a big step forward this season. Last year’s season-opener was the first meeting between these teams in 19 years. As nine-point home favorites, Notre Dame embarrassed Texas 38-3, outgaining the Longhorns 527 total yards to just 163. Notre Dame is 6-2 ATS (8-0 SU) in August and September games since 2014. With Charlie Strong as head coach, Texas is 2-5 ATS (0-7 SU) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Notre Dame averaged 7.0 yards per play last season (6th in the nation) and scored 34.2 points per game (34th). QB Malik Zaire looked destined for stardom early last season, posting 428 passing yards, four TD and no INT in seven quarters of football before a Week 2 fractured ankle cost him the rest of the season. QB DeShone Kizer rose to the occasion, throwing for 2,880 yards, 21 TD and 10 INT while running for 525 yards and 10 TD as a sophomore. Head coach Brian Kelly plans to play both quarterbacks against Texas, feeling that both are too good to keep on the sideline for long. Though RB C.J. Prosise (1,337 yards from scrimmage, 12 TD) is now in the NFL, RB Josh Adams (838 rushing yards, 7 total TD) excelled as a freshman and RB Tarean Folston (1,079 yards from scrimmage, 7 TD in 2014) returns after tearing his ACL in Week 1 last year. The top three receivers from last season are all gone, including WR Will Fuller (1,258 receiving yards, 14 TD). WR Torii Hunter Jr. (28 receptions, 363 yards) is likely the No. 1 option in the passing game, and the other starting spots may go to players who didn’t catch a single pass last year. The Irish defense lost six starters after holding opponents to 24.1 points per game (39th in the nation). DE Isaac Rochell (7.5 TFL) and DT Jarron Jones (missed 2015 with a torn MCL) lead a deep rotation of D-linemen. LB James Onwualu (3 sacks, 6 TFL) needs to assume a leadership position in an inexperienced linebacking group, while S Max Redfield (39 solo tackles) and CB Cole Luke (2 INT, 5 pass breakups) lead a secondary teeming with unproven talent.

After finishing 83rd nationally in scoring (26.4 PPG) and 118th in passing yards per game (146), Texas brought in former Tulsa offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert to run their offense. Freshman QB Shane Buechele thrived in Gilbert’s up-tempo, spread system this spring. He’s the long-term answer under center and should play right away. QB Tyrone Swoopes will take some reps in a run-heavy package coming off a 12-rushing-TD season. Burly RBs D’Onta Foreman (672 rushing yards, 5 TD) and Chris Warren III (470/4) are tough to tackle, each weighing around 250 lbs. Top WR John Burt (28 receptions, 457 yards) returns, and 6’6” freshman WR Collin Johnson is expected to contribute right away. After allowing 219 rushing yards per game (112th in the nation), the Longhorns are expecting a collection of highly touted freshman to step up on a depleted defensive line. DE/OLB Naashon Hughes (5.5 sacks, 9 TFL, 40 solo tackles) and LB Malik Jefferson (2.5 sacks, 7 TFL, 37 solo tackles) are the top returning playmakers up front. The secondary should be better after allowing 233 yards per game last year (78th in the nation). CBs Holton Hill and Davante Davis impressed as freshman a year ago and could be the Big 12’s best tandem by season’s end.

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#4 FSU, #11 Ole Miss battle Mon., Sep. 5

MISSISSIPPI REBELS (0-0)
at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (0-0)
Camping World Stadium – Orlando
Kickoff: Monday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -4, Total: N/A

Opening Weekend concludes with two legitimate College Football Playoff contenders, #4 Florida State and #11 Ole Miss, running the risk of starting the season with a blemish.

Mississippi was the only team to beat eventual champions Alabama, but couldn’t sustain their success past that Week 3 high point. The Rebels were upset at Florida, at Memphis, and at home in overtime against Arkansas en route to a 9-3 regular season. As 7.5-point favorites in the Sugar Bowl, Mississippi embarrassed Oklahoma State in a 48-20 victory. Three Rebels were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, leaving Mississippi with holes to fill throughout the starting lineup. Heisman hopeful QB Chad Kelly is back, though his two most productive receivers, four starting offensive lineman and two of the top three RBs from last year are gone. Returning DE Marquis Haynes tied a team record with ten sacks, and there is enough talent on every level of the defense for Mississippi to compete with anyone. Florida State rose as high as #9 in the AP Poll before an upset loss at Georgia Tech in October. The only other regular-season loss was in a competitive game at Clemson, and the season ended on a sour note with a 38-24 loss to Houston as 7.5-point favorites in the Peach Bowl. FSU returns all eleven starters on offense, including juggernaut RB Dalvin Cook. Questions linger at QB, but a trio of WRs who combined for 2,336 yards last year should make the passing game click. The Seminoles D has plenty of star power, as well, and could have one of the country’s best pass rushes. These teams haven’t played each other since 1961. Under Hugh Freeze, Mississippi is 15-5 ATS (17-3 SU) in non-conference games, 7-1 ATS (8-0 SU) in the first two weeks of the season and 6-0 ATS & SU in road games in the first month of the season. Since 2014, Florida State is 1-3 ATS (4-0 SU) in the first two weeks of the season, and they’re 3-7 ATS (8-2 SU) in non-conference games. Seven of FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher’s eight games against the SEC have been UNDER the total.

Junior college transfer QB Chad Kelly (4,042 passing yards, 31 passing TD, 13 INT, 509 rushing yards, 10 rushing TD) torched the competition upon arriving in Oxford, leading Mississippi to 40.8 points per game (8th in the nation) and 7.1 yards per play (4th). Though No. 1 WR Laquon Treadwell (1,153 receiving yards, 11 TD) is gone, the trio of WR Quincy Adeboyejo (38 receptions, 604 yards, 7 TD), WR Damore’ea Stringfellow (36 receptions, 503 yards, 5 TD) and TE Evan Engram (38 receptions, 464 yards, 2 TD) will keep the passing game potent. RB Akeem Judd averaged 5.4 yards per carry as a backup a year ago, but rises to a starting role behind an offensive line that lost four starters. Though Mississippi’s defense gave up 259 passing yards per game (105th in the nation), that number was inflated by how often opponents were forced to throw because of the Rebels’ high-scoring offense: Their 6.3 yards per pass attempt average ranked 22nd nationally. DE Marquis Haynes (10 sacks, 16.5 TFL) leads the pass rush, while DT Isaac Gross’s return from last season’s neck injury will keep the defensive line robust. LB DeMarquis Gates led the team in tackles last season despite coming off the bench as an OLB in nine games, and could be starting in the middle of a thin linebacking group. SS Tony Conner, a future pro who missed eight games last year, should anchor the secondary from Mississippi’s hybrid “Huskie” position.

To say Florida State RB Dalvin Cook was a beast last season is an understatement. Despite multiple nagging injuries and a shaky offensive line, Cook amassed 1,935 yards from scrimmage and 20 TD in 12 games. The offensive line will surely improve as it returns seven players with starting experience. Dual-threat freshman QB Deondre Francois should take over as the starter very soon. Regardless of who’s throwing the passes, the Seminoles have tons of talent ready to catch them with the WR trio of Travis Rudolph (59 receptions, 916 yards, 7 TD), Kermit Whitfield (57 receptions, 798 yards, 6 TD) and Jesus Wilson (58 receptions, 622 yards, 3 TD) returning intact. FSU’s defense can be just as good as last season, when they allowed 17.5 points per game (9th in the nation) and 5.6 yards per pass attempt (4th). Star DE DeMarcus Walker (10.5 sacks, 15.5 TFL, 4 forced fumbles) chose to put the NFL Draft off for a year and return to Tallahassee, and former five-star recruit DE Josh Sweat is expected to break out as a sophomore. The Seminoles lost most of their linebacking production, and LBs Ro’Derrick Hoskins (31 solo tackles, 6.5 TFL) and Matthew Thomas (missed 2015 with a shoulder injury) need to step up as they ascend into starting roles. Though DB Jalen Ramsey, fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft, is gone, FSU has the depth to replace him. Sophomore FS Derwin James (4.5 sacks, 9.5 TFL, 52 solo tackles) moves around the formation, and he’s capable of providing reliable coverage or aggressive backfield pressure. He’s a rising star who projects as a future first-round NFL draft pick.

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******* Super Situations™ - FoxSheets.com


CFB | INDIANA at FLA INTERNATIONAL
Play On - Home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (FLA INTERNATIONAL) in non-conference games, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season
138-78 since 1997. ( 63.9% | 52.2 units )

CFB | KENT ST at PENN ST
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (KENT ST) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight losses
50-29 since 1997. ( 63.3% | 0.0 units )

CFB | APPALACHIAN ST at TENNESSEE
Play On - A home team vs. the 1rst half line (TENNESSEE) in the first week of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins, team that had a winning record last season
41-15 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )

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Ranking Comparison - VI vs. AP
August 29, 2016

The VegasInsider.com college football preseason Top 25 poll and the Associated Press preseason rankings agree on the 1-2 spots with Alabama and Clemson, respectively, taking those slots just like at the end of last season. Although our teams line up in a different order, the Top 10 is identical with the exception of Tennessee and Baylor.

Here at VI, we have the Volunteers at No. 11, while the AP has UT at ninth. The Bears are at No. 23 in the AP, while we have Baylor at No. 10. We’re more bullish on Michigan (third), while Jim Harbaugh’s team is seventh in the AP rankings.

We agree on Stanford at eighth and are just one spot off on Oklahoma (3rd AP, 4th VI), Florida State (4th AP, 5th VI), LSU (5th AP, 6th VI), Ohio State (6th, AP, 7th VI) and Notre Dame (8th AP, 9th VI). The only other school we agree on is UCLA (16th).

Other teams we greatly vary on besides Baylor include Florida (25th AP, 14th VI), TCU (13th AP, 23rd VI), Houston (15th AP, 22nd VI), Oregon (24th AP, 13th VI) and Southern California (20th AP, unranked VI).

Although I have major questions about Oregon’s defense, I think the Ducks are going to be extremely potent on offense as always. Remember, they lost three one-possession games last season, including two setbacks that involved five combined overtimes. If not for Vernon Adams’s injury when Oregon led TCU 31-0 at halftime at the Alamo Bowl, the Ducks wouldn’t have lost to the Horned Frogs in triple OT and would’ve finished the year on a seven-game winning streak.

I’m more bullish on Florida because I think its offense is finally going to have a pulse in 2016. Like Oregon on offense, I expect the Gators to be as salty on defense as they usually are. With improved QB play, UF has an excellent shot at repeating as SEC East champion.

TCU returns only three starters on offense, though we’ll concede that several players like OT Aviante Collins and WRs Ty Slanina and Deante’ Gray are coming back from season-ending injuries.

The only school we have ranked that’s not in the AP’s Top 25 is Texas A&M. We have the Aggies at 19th, while the AP has them at No. 27 (second-best in others receiving votes). Kevin Sumlin’s team has an elite defense and a great group of WRs for new QB Trevor Knight to throw to.

Listed below are the Top 25 preseason rankings from VegasInsider.com and the Associated Press.

College Football Top 25 Rankings - VI vs. AP

VegasInsider.com (VI) Associated Press (AP)

Rank School Rank School
1 Alabama 1 Alabama
2 Clemson 2 Clemson
3 Michigan 3 Oklahoma
4 Oklahoma 4 Florida State
5 Florida State 5 LSU
6 LSU 6 Ohio State
7 Ohio State 7 Michigan
8 Stanford 8 Stanford
9 Notre Dame 9 Tennessee
10 Baylor 10 Notre Dame
11 Tennessee 11 Mississippi
12 Ole Miss 12 Michigan State
13 Oregon 13 TCU
14 Florida 14 Washington
15 Michigan State 15 Houston
16 UCLA 16 UCLA
17 Louisville 17 Iowa
18 Washington 18 Georgia
19 Texas A&M 19 Louisville
20 Oklahoma State 20 USC
21 Georgia 21 Oklahoma State
22 Houston 22 North Carolina
23 TCU 23 Baylor
24 Iowa 24 Oregon
25 North Carolina 25 Florida

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ACC Report - Week 1
August 30, 2016


2015 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 3-9 0-8 5-6-1 2-10

Clemson 14-1 9-0 8-7 9-6

Duke 8-5 4-4 7-6 6-7

Florida State 10-3 6-2 8-5 5-8

Georgia Tech 3-9 1-7 3-9 6-6

Louisville 8-5 5-3 7-6 6-6-1

Miami (Fla.) 8-5 5-3 7-6 6-7

North Carolina 11-3 8-1 8-6 8-6

North Carolina State 7-6 3-5 6-7 7-6

Pittsburgh 8-5 6-2 6-7 6-6-1

Syracuse 4-8 2-6 8-4 10-2

Virginia 4-8 3-5 8-3-1 6-5-1

Virginia Tech 7-6 4-4 6-7 6-7

Wake Forest 3-9 1-7 6-6 5-6-1

Charlotte at Louisville (Thurs. - ESPN3, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Cardinals enter the season in the Top 25, and they have no plans to fall out by losing their opener to the new kid on the block, Charlotte. Charlotte wrapped up the 2015 season going 0-4-2 ATS in their final six games, and 1-3-1 ATS in their final five road outings. Louisville has covered in 15 of their past 18 games against Conference USA opponents, while covering in eight of their past 11 games in the month of September. The Cardinals are led by QB Lamar Jackson, who has the potential to be one of the best players not only in the Atlantic Coast Conference, but the entire country. The Cards open as a 39 1/2-point favorite. As a favorite of 25 or more points over the past two seasons, Louisville is 3-0 ATS.

Tulane at Wake Forest (Thurs. - ESPN3, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Tulane heads to Winston-Salem as a 17-point underdog for their opener at Wake Forest. The Green Wave have failed to cover in each of their past six against ACC opponents, and they're 1-4 ATS in their past five tilts in the month of September. Both teams are 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on Thursday night. Tulane is looking to wash the sour taste out of their mouth following a disappointing 2015. They have a new coach, new quarterback and new attitude, looking to improve on offense after finishing 123rd out of 128 FBS teams. John Wolford is back under center for his third season at the helm of the Deacs' offense, and he should give way to dual-threat option Kendall Hinton on occasion. The Demon Deacons have the pieces in place to have a much more explosive offense.

Georgia Tech vs. Boston College -- from Dublin, Ireland (ESPN2, 7:30 a.m. ET)
The Ramblin' Wreck and Eagles will do battle in Aviva Stadium in Dublin, with Georgia Tech installed as a field goal favorite. Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in their past five neutral-site games, while Boston College is 3-8 ATS in their past 11 neutral-site battles. After all of the travel, and the trends for each of these two sides, the 'under' might be the play. The under went 4-1 in Georgia Tech's past five games last season, while the under is 7-3 in B.C.'s past 10 neutral site games, 34-15-2 in their past 51 conference tilts and 36-16-1 in their past 53 on grass. Boston College's offense was horrific down the stretch last season, and figures to be improved. But seeing is believing.

Georgia vs. North Carolina -- from Atlanta, Ga. (ESPN, 5:30 p.m.)
The Bulldogs and Tar Heels will battle in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta in one of the marquee games of the weekend. This game figures to have a very strong Bulldogs crowd despite being a 'neutral site'. UNC hasn't performed very well over the years in neutral-site games, either, going 0-4 ATS in their past four such games, while turning in a 3-7 ATS mark in their past 10 non-conference tilts and 2-7 ATS record in their past nine games in the month of September. Georgia, on the other hand, is 4-1 ATS in their past five against ACC foes while going 7-3 ATS in their past 10 non-conference battles.

Clemson at Auburn (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)
Clemson heads to the Plains for a battle with Auburn in a primetime matchup on Saturday, with all eyes seeing if the ACC can step out of the shadow of the mighty Southeastern Conference, at least for one weekend. The last time these two sides met resulted in a 26-19 Tigers win, also at Auburn, back on Sept. 1, 2012. QB DeShaun Watson and company enter as touchdown favorites, looking to improve upon their 6-1 ATS mark in their past seven games in the month of September. The Tigers are also 6-2 ATS in their past eight non-conference tussles, which is a far cry from Auburn's 1-8 ATS record over their past nine outside of the SEC. Auburn has also failed to cover six straight in September, and they're 1-10 ATS in their past 11 games at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Mississippi vs. Florida State -- from Orlando, Fla. (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Last, but certainly not least, the retooled Ole Miss Rebels head to Orlando to battle the Florida State Seminoles in the final game of the opening weekend of action. Mississippi is looking to reload after losing WR Laquon Treadwell, OT Laremy Tunsil and DE Robert Nkemdiche, three players who helped Hotty Toddy become a household hashtag on Twitter over the past couple of seasons in Oxford. They still have QB Chad Kelly, an NFL prospect. However, he is behind an inexperienced offensive line facing a Florida State front which is all likely to be playing on Sundays at some point. The quarterback situation in Tallahassee is a lot less experience, as Deondre Francois takes the reins of Jimbo Fisher's offense. To make his transition a lot more comfortable, he has the luxury of handing off to RB Dalvin Cook early and often. The Seminoles might get off to a slow start as their offense takes time to jell, but Cook will be the difference in this one. However, Ole Miss is 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine neutral-site games, while FSU is 0-5 ATS in their past five on a neutral field. That might be why FSU opened as a 6 1/2-point favorite and the line has been bet down to the neighbor of -4 to -4 1/2.

Other Games

William & Mary at North Carolina State (Thurs. - ESPN3, 7:30 p.m.)

Colgate at Syracuse (Fri. - ESPN3, 7:00 p.m.)

Liberty at Virginia Tech (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)

Villanova at Pittsburgh (ESPN3, 1:30 p.m.)

Richmond at Virginia (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)

North Carolina Central at Duke (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)

Florida A&M at Miami-Florida (ESPN3, 6:00 p.m.)

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Pac-12 North Best Bets
August 30, 2016


California – UNDER 4 Wins
2015 Record – 7-5

Head man Sonny Dykes finally pushed Cal “over the hump” last season as the Bears went 8-5 (just 4-5 in conference play) and got back to a bowl for the first time since 2011. That was with Jared Goff, the #1 pick in the NFL draft under center. Things will be different this year as Goff moves on and 77% of their offensive yards overall from last year are now gone.

Let’s face it, Cal had a chance to be very good last year with a great QB and very good skill position players but had a number of close wins (margins of 1, 2, 6, & 6 points) so the Bears weren’t that far from being a .500 type team. Now with so much talent & experience moving on (only 9 starters back, least in the Pac 12) we expect a fairly large drop off this season. Texas Tech graduate transfer Davis Webb will most likely get the nod at QB and while he is adequate, he had trouble holding his job with the Red Raiders. He’s not nearly as good as Goff. On the other side of the ball, the defense was poor allowing 33 PPG and 468 YPG in league play. Even more disturbing was the fact they were pushed around at the line of scrimmage allowing 209 YPG rushing.

With very little experience back on that side of the ball (lost over 65% of their total tackles from last year), another poor year defensively is expected. The schedule does them no favors as they play Hawaii (in Australia), San Diego State, and Texas before conference play even begins. We think there is a good chance they lost at SDSU and at home vs Texas and Hawaii is no gimme. We have to lean UNDER for the Cal Bears.

Oregon – OVER 8 Wins
2015 Record – 9-3

The Ducks were “just” 9-3 last year in the regular season and that was with their QB Adams being hurt for about half the season. This is a program that reloads. The last time they won fewer than 9 games was back in 2006. Over the last 7 years the Quacks have an overall record of 98-22! They are 44-5 their last 49 games at Autzen Stadium and the play Stanford & Washington, the other two contenders in the Pac 12 North, at home. They do lose QB Adams (who was hurt half the year anyway) but return their top 4 rushers and 6 of their top 7 pass catchers.

Taking over at QB will most likely be graduate transfer Dakota Prukop who had a very good career at Montana State. In his 2 seasons as a starter at Montana State, Prukop not only passed for over 5,500 yards but also ran for 1,700 yards. He fits OU’s offense very well. Oregon has averaged 40+ points for 6 straight seasons and we don’t see that changing this year. The defense last year was the worst it’s been in a long time but new DC Brady Hoke (former Michigan head coach) will have them improved on that side of the ball.

There is a strong possibility the Ducks could be 6-0 heading into their bye on October 8th. They will definitely be favored in 5 of those games and possibly all 6 with their game at Nebraska being the only possible exception. We don’t see this team finishing below 8 wins so we’ll grab the OVER here.

Oregon State – OVER 3.5 Wins
2015 Record – 2-10

The Beavers won just 2 games last year in Gary Andersen’s first year on the job but we expect a jump up this season. Andersen’s team is much more experienced this year and he and his staff have had a full year to implement his systems on both sides of the ball. We felt he was trying to fit square pegs into round holes last year as he completely changed the Beavers previous offensive system. He had huge problems at QB where he rotated Collins, Mitchell, and McMaryion, none of which were adept at throwing the ball. Because of that the Beavs only averaged 19 PPG which was one of the worst in the nation.

Now with Garretson (former starter at Utah State) at QB, we expect a huge improvement at that position. The defense was terrible and can do nothing but improve this year with almost 70% of their tackles coming back. Andersen is a solid coach. He turned around a very bad Utah State program very quickly and won 10 games & captured the Big 10 North Title in his 2nd year at Wisconsin. This team should be improved and we have them with a projected 4-8 record so a very slight lean to the OVER.

Stanford – OVER 8.5 Wins
2015 Record – 10-2

Last year Stanford won 12 games and their two losses were by a combined 12 points. The Cardinal were easily the best team in the conference as they had the highest point differential in conference play (+149 points) and the highest YPG differential at +70. They did lose QB Hogan who was the 3rd all-time leading passer in school history but to be perfectly honest, RB McCaffrey carried this team last year. He was fantastic with over 2,000 yards rushing and 645 yards receiving. He is back this year and a leading Heisman candidate.

The QB position will be filled by Keller Chryst (nephew of Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst) who was one of the top QB’s in high school a few years ago. His transition will be made much easier with McCaffrey carrying the load. Last year’s defense began the season as a very inexperience unit with just 3 starters back. They allowed 368 yards per game which was the most by a Stanford stop unit since 2009.

This year’s defense will be very good as they have a number of key players returning. This team does play one of the toughest schedules in the nation as they face off against Kansas State & Notre Dame in the non-conference slate. This is one of the better programs in the nation finishing with double digit wins in 5 of the last 6 seasons. We think they get there again this year and we like the OVER.

Washington – UNDER 9 Wins
2015 Record – 6-6

Washington’s win total this year (9) is one of the biggest jumps in college football as last year the oddsmakers set this team at 4 total wins. While the Huskies are definitely one of the favorites in the Pac 12 North, we think this is an over adjustment and we’ll grab the UNDER here. Yes Washington has 15 starters back but let’s not forget they were just 4-5 in the conference last year. They have not won more than 5 conference games in a season since 2001! The last time this team had double digit wins in a season was way back in 2000 and that’s what the oddsmakers are asking of them with this number sitting at 9.

While this is an improving team under a very good head coach (Chris Petersen) they are still quite young with only 4 of the 22 projected starters expected to be seniors. They have 5 Pac 12 road games (just 4 at home) all against teams that went to bowl games last season.

The Huskies do have an extremely easy non-conference slate but even with a sweep there, they would still need to go 7-2 in conference play to hit this over. We don’t think they can pull that off. With the massive change from last year’s total, we think the value is on the UNDER here.

Washington State – OVER 7.5 Wins
2015 Record – 8-4

The Cougars were one of the biggest overachievers last season winning 8 games (regular season) when the oddsmakers had them tabbed for 5 W’s. This year their total has jumped up to 7.5. They are a much more experienced team this year with 14 starters back including the conference’s top passing QB Luke Falk who threw for over 4,500 yards and 38 TD’s.

The big numbers passing should continue this year under head coach Mike Leach as the Cougars also return a solid offensive line and 10 of their top 11 pass catchers from last season. The problem with Leach’s teams has never been the offense. However, his defenses here have been bad. In his 4 years at WSU, the Cougs defenses have allowed 426, 458, 442, and 417 YPG. Last year, believe it or not, was an improvement as they allowed less than 30 PPG for the first time in Leach’s tenure. If they continue with another jump up defensively, this team could actually be very good.

They have two easy wins in the non-conference vs Idaho & Eastern Washington but will have trouble winning at Boise State. If they go 2-1 in the non-conference they need at least 6 wins in Pac 12 play which is what they hit last year (6-3 in league play). With just 4 road games, including 2 of them at Colorado & at Oregon State who combined for 1 conference win last year, WSU should be able to get to 8 wins this year.

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Pac-12 South Best Bets
August 28, 2016


Arizona – UNDER 6 Wins
2015 Record – 6-6

The Wildcats won six regular season games last year after winning 10 in 2014. We have the Cats finishing at 6-6 again this year, however if we had to lean one way or the other, we’d probably look at the UNDER before the OVER in this one. Zona’s offense was solid last year putting up 464 yards per game in Pac 12 play. However they return just 57% of their total offensive yards and must replace 3 offensive linemen. The defense was atrocious allowing 485 YPG in conference play including 200+ on the ground. They were pushed around up front and we rate their DLine as one of the weaker ones in the Pac 12. We look for them to struggle up front defensively again this season.

Their non-conference slate was extremely weak last year (UTSA, Nevada, and Northern Arizona) and while it’s not overly tough this season, the Cats at least have a potential loss before conference play as they take on BYU in Glendale, AZ this season. They were just 3-6 in conference play last year with 5 of their 6 losses coming by 8 points or more and 4 came in blowout fashion. Zona plays many of the top Pac 12 teams at home (USC, Stanford, & Washington) which are all potential losses. That means they’ll probably have to pick up some solid road wins to get above this number of 6. Slight lean to the UNDER 6 wins here.

Arizona State – OVER 5 Wins
2015 Record – 6-6

The Devils underachieved in 2014 with just 6 wins (projected for 8.5). They finished just 4-5 in conference play but they could have easily had a much better record. They lost by 2 vs Cal, lost in 3OT’s at Oregon and ASU was actually leading or tied in the 4th quarter in 7 of their 9 Pac 12 games. The outgained their opponents in league games last season and their rush defense was tops in the Pac12 (conference games) allowing only 95 YPG. The Devil defensive line will again be very solid and a number of highly rated JUCO’s are expected to step in and play right away.

Offensively, head coach Todd Graham’s teams are always potent. ASU has averaged 32+ points in 6 straight seasons. They must replace QB Bercovici which won’t be easy but their running game (top 2 RB’s return after combining for 1,800 yards last year) will take some pressure off the new signal caller. The Devils should win at least 2 of their 3 non-conference games and they have a solid shot at all 3 as they get Texas Tech (the possible loss) in Tempe. If they win those 3, they only need to go 3-6 in Pac12 play to top this number. Graham is 34-19 in his 4 years at Arizona State and his team might be a bit undervalued this year. Take the OVER 5 wins.

Colorado – OVER 4.5 Wins
2015 Record – 4-9

This number for the Buffs is set exactly the same as last year’s number which we feel is a mistake. Last year’s team came close to topping the 4.5 number (4-9 record) and we think this year’s team will be quite a bit better. They needed only one more win last season to get to 5 and they had their chances with a number of tight losses by margins of 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 points. While this team has won only 3 Pac 12 games the last 4 seasons, we have a strong feeling they could get that many this year alone. They return more starters than any other team in the conference (18), including their QB (Liufau) and an experience offensive line with 77 career starts among their front 5. The defense should be much better with 10 projected starters being experienced, upperclassmen

If they can get a “W” against rival Colorado State to start the season (Buffs won 27-24 last year) they will start the season 2-0 as Idaho State is their 2nd game. They have 5 home games in conference play and just 4 roadies which is an obvious advantage. The schedule is also set up where they play most of the top teams in the Pac 12 on the road and their conference home games vs Oregon State, Washington State, Arizona State, and Utah (should be down this year) are all winnable. UCLA is their only home game in league play that we don’t give them a very good chance of winning. We like the Buffs to get to 5 and maybe 6 wins this year so take the OVER.

USC – UNDER 7.5 Wins
2015 Record – 8-4

This is a tough one for us. USC should be very good offensively if new QB Max Browne can simply be a solid facilitator. They return everyone else on that side of the ball including one of the more experienced offensive lines in the nation. Their defense lost A LOT in the front 7 so they could struggle there but their defensive backfield should be very good. So why do we lean toward the UNDER 7.5 wins here? Their schedule is brutal. We rate it as the 2nd toughest in the entire nation. If you go strictly by opponent win % from last year, the Trojans schedule ranks 5th nationally but we think it’s tougher than that. They play both Alabama & Notre Dame (both top 10 teams) in the non-conference. Their other non-Pac 12 game is Utah State and that could be a dangerous spot with USC coming off Bama and the Aggies having 9 full days to prepare.

Once they hit their conference schedule the Trojans draw the 3 best teams out of the Pac 12 North (Stanford, Oregon, & Washington) and 2 of those are on the road. USC also has only 4 home games in conference play (5 road games). They end their season with consecutive games vs Oregon, at Washington, at UCLA, and vs Notre Dame which is as tough a closing stretch as you’ll see. Last year this team finished 8-5 in the regular season with a ton of talent on the roster AND an experienced QB who was a multiple year starters (Kessler). With this year’s schedule and a question mark at QB, we think they finish at 7-5 this year pushing them slightly under this number.

UCLA – OVER 8.5 Wins
2015 Record – 8-4

The Bruins win total last year was set at 9.5 and they disappointed with “just” an 8-4 regular season record. This year the oddsmakers have dropped their win total by a full game to 8.5 and we think UCLA can get to 9-3 or better this year going OVER this number. The Bruins finished just 5-4 in Pac 12 play and they should be drastically improved in conference this year.

First of all, they were better than their record last year as they were +55 YPG in conference play which was the 2nd best differential in the league behind only Stanford. Their conference slate lays out very well this year as they avoid two of the best teams in the Pac 12, Oregon & Washington. They also play 5 home games in conference play and just 4 road games. If they can get through the non-conference unscathed they will be sitting in prime position for a big year. It won’t be easy as they travel to Texas A&M and BYU. If they can at least split those games and beat UNLV (they will) then 9 wins becomes probable.

The UCLA defense was a disappointment last year allowing 416 YPG in conference games. Injuries were a big problem with the defense last season and a big improvement is expected on that side of the ball with 9 starters back (83% of their tackles from last year returning). Offensively they have possibly the top QB in the conference in Josh Rosen (3,700 yards passing & 23 TD’s). Prior to last season’s 8 wins, UCLA won 9, 10, & 10 games and it looks to us like they’ll get back to similar results this year.

Utah – UNDER 7.5 Wins
2015 Record – 9-3

Last year’s Utah team overachieved with 9 regular season wins as the oddsmakers had their team total set at 7.5. It’s set at the same number again this season and we like the UNDER here. Despite their 10 overall wins (beat BYU in bowl game) this team was over rated in our opinion. The Utes were outgained last year in 8 of their 13 games. They had a huge turnover ratio (+13 on the season) which helped them to double digit wins. They can’t expect that again this year and with their big losses offensively, this team looks like they’ll take a big step back in 2016.

Offensively this team loses their top 2 QB’s, their top 2 RB’s, and their top 3 receivers from last season. Because of that, only 19% of their total yardage from last year returns which ranks them dead last in the country in that category. Defensively they have 7 starters back, however 4 of their top 5 tacklers have moved on so there are some big holes to fill on that side of the ball as well.

They have a non-conference game vs BYU, who will absolutely be out for revenge after blowing a 35-7 lead in last year’s bowl loss to Utah. When the Utes hit conference play they have just 4 home games and 5 on the road. They also draw Washington & Oregon from the Pac 12 North. Last year’s team was not as good as their record made them out to be. This year they finish with 7 wins or fewer.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, September 1

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INDIANA (6 - 7) at FLA INTERNATIONAL (5 - 7) - 9/1/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 1-0 against the spread versus FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 1-0 straight up against FLA INTERNATIONAL over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (2 - 10) at LOUISVILLE (8 - 5) - 9/1/2016, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TULANE (3 - 9) at WAKE FOREST (3 - 9) - 9/1/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULANE is 87-119 ATS (-43.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
TULANE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) against ACC opponents since 1992.
WAKE FOREST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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RICE (5 - 7) at W KENTUCKY (12 - 2) - 9/1/2016, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
W KENTUCKY is 1-0 against the spread versus RICE over the last 3 seasons
W KENTUCKY is 1-0 straight up against RICE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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S CAROLINA (3 - 9) at VANDERBILT (4 - 8) - 9/1/2016, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
VANDERBILT is 1-1 against the spread versus S CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
S CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against VANDERBILT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OREGON ST (2 - 10) at MINNESOTA (6 - 7) - 9/1/2016, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
OREGON ST is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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APPALACHIAN ST (11 - 2) at TENNESSEE (9 - 4) - 9/1/2016, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, September 1

7:00 PM
TENNESSEE-MARTIN vs. CINCINNATI
Tennessee-Martin is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee-Martin is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home
Cincinnati is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games

7:00 PM
TULANE vs. WAKE FOREST
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tulane's last 6 games on the road
Tulane is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Wake Forest's last 18 games at home
Wake Forest is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
MAINE vs. CONNECTICUT
Maine is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Maine is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games
Connecticut is 7-16 SU in its last 23 games
Connecticut is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 games

7:00 PM
PRESBYTERIAN vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Presbyterian is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Presbyterian is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Central Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Central Michigan's last 18 games at home

7:00 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. LOUISVILLE
Charlotte is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville's last 6 games at home
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
APPALACHIAN STATE vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Appalachian State's last 6 games
Appalachian State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 13 games at home
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
INDIANA vs. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games
Indiana is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Florida International is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Florida International's last 7 games

7:30 PM
WILLIAM & MARY vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
William & Mary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
William & Mary is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
North Carolina State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Carolina State's last 8 games at home

8:00 PM
WEBER STATE vs. UTAH STATE
Weber State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Weber State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Utah State's last 11 games
Utah State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
S. UTAH vs. UTAH
S. Utah is 2-20 SU in its last 22 games on the road
S. Utah is 2-19 SU in its last 21 games
Utah is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
Utah is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

8:00 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. VANDERBILT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Carolina's last 7 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt
South Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against South Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vanderbilt's last 7 games at home

8:00 PM
RICE vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY
Rice is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Rice's last 11 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Western Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

9:00 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA vs. NEW MEXICO
South Dakota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
South Dakota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Mexico's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Mexico's last 10 games at home

9:00 PM
MONTANA STATE vs. IDAHO
Montana State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Montana State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Idaho's last 6 games at home
Idaho is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games at home

9:00 PM
OREGON STATE vs. MINNESOTA
Oregon State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oregon State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

10:00 PM
JACKSON ST vs. UNLV
Jackson St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Jackson St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
UNLV is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
UNLV is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home

----------------------

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 1

Thursday, September 1

South Carolina @ Vanderbilt

Game 141-142
September 1, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
South Carolina
83.173
Vanderbilt
89.613
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vanderbilt
by 6 1/2
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vanderbilt
by 3
43
Dunkel Pick:
Vanderbilt
(-3); Under

Oregon State @ Minnesota

Game 143-144
September 1, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oregon State
73.230
Minnesota
92.684
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 19 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 12 1/2
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-12 1/2); Under

Appalachian St @ Tennessee

Game 189-190
September 1, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Appalachian St
82.787
Tennessee
107.662
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 25
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 20
58
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-20); Over

Indiana @ FIU

Game 133-134
September 1, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indiana
78.416
FIU
75.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 3
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 9 1/2
61
Dunkel Pick:
FIU
(+9 1/2); Over

Charlotte @ Louisville

Game 135-136
September 1, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
48.831
Louisville
96.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 48
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 39
61
Dunkel Pick:
Louisville
(-39); Under

Tulane @ Wake Forest

Game 137-138
September 1, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulane
70.212
Wake Forest
83.245
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wake Forest
by 13
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wake Forest
by 17
43
Dunkel Pick:
Tulane
(+17); Under

Rice @ Western Kentucky

Game 139-140
September 1, 2016 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Rice
77.620
Western Kentucky
90.262
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Western Kentucky
by 12 1/2
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Western Kentucky
by 16 1/2
63
Dunkel Pick:
Rice
(+16 1/2); Over

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Top 14 games of the weekend

South Carolina beat Vanderbilt last five years but covered only one of last four; they won 17-13/48-34 in last two visits here. Gamecocks have a new coach and only 9 starters back- they’re 6-9 vs spread on road last three years. Vandy is 2-4 as a home favorite under Mason; they’ve got 15 starters back, have soph QB who started five games LY.

Oregon State was one of youngest teams in country LY but has 13 starters back; Beavers are 2-7 as road underdogs last two years. OSU coach Anderson beat Minnesota 20-7/34-24 while at Wisconsin in 2014-15. Gophers has a new coach and 13 starters back; they’re 10-6 as home favorites last four years. Since 2012, Big 14 teams are 3-7 vs spread when favored over a Pac-12 team.

Colorado/Colorado State split last four meetings (dogs 3-0-1 vs spread); this game is at neutral Denver site. Buffs have 18 starters back and senior QB who has 29 starts- they’re 6-2 as favorites under MacIntyre. State has only 10 starters back; their junior QB has 13 starts. Rams are 6-5 as underdogs last three years.

Missouri has new coach, soph QB, only one starter back on OL after 5-7 year- they were 1-4 vs spread on road LY. Tigers are 12-5 as road dogs since 2011. West Virginia has senior QB with 15 starts but lost 7 starters on defense; WV is 9-15 as home favorite under Holgorsen. Last five years, Big X teams are 4-2 vs spread when favored against an SEC team; they’ve been underdog in 12 of 20 meetings, with two pick ’ems.

Southern Miss’ new OC Dawson was Kentucky’s OC LY, which can’t hurt. USM has senior QB with 30 starts, 3 senior starters on OL, but their head coach bolted for OC job in NFL. Kentucky has SEC opener with Florida next; they’ve got 4 starters back on OL, but soph QB with only 2 starts. Wildcats are 7-3 as home favorites under Stoops, 7-4-1 in last 12 non-SEC games. C-USA are 14-12 as dogs vs SEC squads the last five years.

Clemson beat Auburn 38-24/26-19 in games played in 2011-12; Clemson coach Swinney is an Alabama grad- his team has junior QB with 20 starts, but only 7 starters back on defense- they’re 2-6 as road favorites last two years. Auburn is unsure of its starting QB; they’re 9-6 in last 15 games as a home dog, but 2-8 in last 10 non-SEC games. Last 5 years, ACC teams are 8-6 vs spread when favored over an SEC squad- they were underdog in 31 of 45 meetings (19-26 vs spread, favorites 28-17).

Pac 12-SEC teams don’t meet often; last five years, SEC teams are 6-1 vs Pac-12 squads, 3-0 vs spread if number was single digits. A&M’s new QB is former Sooner Knight (15 starts); Aggies are 6-12 as home favorites last 3 years- they’ve got 13 starters back, only 2 on OL. UCLA lost 7 starters on offense; they’ve got soph QB (13 starts), are 13-11 vs spread under Mora, 5-4 as road dogs- they do have 9 starters back on defense.

Last 5 years, SEC teams are 18-8 SU vs Big 14 teams, 13-8-1 vs spread when favored. Since ’08, LSU is just 15-22 vs spread outside SEC; they’re 9-6-1 as favorite last 2 years. Tigers have 17 starters back but can QB make defenses respect their passing game, opening up ground attack for Fournette? Last 6 years, Badgers are 6-2 as underdogs; last 3 years, they are 10-5 outside Big 14. This game is at Lambeau Field, not in Madison.

Georgia has new coach (why?); they’re 12-9-1 vs spread outside SEC, 18-22 in last 40 games as favorite. Dawgs have 14 starters back, 8 on offense; will new coach play vet (12 starts) QB or frosh Eason? North Carolina has 7 starters back on both sides of ball; they’re 4-7 as road dogs under Fedora. UNC QB Trubisky was 40-47/555 LY, impressive, but this is his first college start. SEC teams are 20-11 vs spread when favored vs ACC squads.

Last 3 years, Houston is 8-0-1 vs spread as an underdog; they’re 29-11 SU, beating ACC teams in last 2 bowls. Cougars have senior QB (25 starts) but only 11 starters back from LY (no senior starters on OL). Oklahoma has senior QB (20 starts), 13 starters back; Sooners are 13-7 vs spread outside Big X last 5 years, 17-11 as favorites last 3 years. Oklahoma has frosh, 4 sophs starting on OL; three of them started LY.

USC has 10 starters back on offense, but new starter is QB; since 2012, Trojans are 3-8 vs spread as underdogs. USC lost 6 starters on defense, but does have whole OL back. Alabama lost 11 starters, has new QB; they’re 8-13 vs spread in last 21 non-SEC games. Last 8 years, they’re 20-12 as road favorites. Last 5 years, SEC teams are 6-1 SU vs Pac-12 squads, 3-0 vs spread if number was single digits.

BYU/Arizona both have 15 starters back, both have vet QBs (BYU’s has 19 starts, Arizona’s 25). BYU lost bowl games to Pac-12 squads 2 of last 3 years; they’ve got 15 starters back, are 4-8 vs spread on road last 3 years. (this game is in Cardinals’ dome, not Tucson, but will be ‘zona crowd). Arizona is 5-9 under RichRod in games where spread was less than 6 points; they’re 14-15 as faves under this coach. New coach for BYU; Mendenhall was at BYU for 11 years.

Texas is 11-14 under Strong, 3-7-1 vs spread as dogs; they lost 38-3 (+9) LY in South Bend, outgained 527-163- they moved former QB Heard (10 starts) to WR, haven’t decided between Buechele/Swoopes as their QB. Longhorns have 14 starters back, 3 on OL. Notre Dame is just 5-9 as road favorite under Kelly; they lost 13 starters, have just 27 returning starts on OL, but they do have quality depth at QB.

Florida State QB Maguire (foot) is out here; redshirt freshman Francois is likely starter here. Seminoles have 16 starters back, with 10 back on offense- they’re 36-28-1 as favorites under Fisher. Ole Miss is 14-5-1 vs spread in last 20 non-SEC games, 11-4 in last 15 tries as an underdog, 6-1 in neutral field games; Rebels lost 6 starters on both sides of ball- their senior QB has 13 starts.

[StarDust Bum]

College football Week 1 opening line report: It's finally here!

Mississippi has been on the rise the past few years under Hugh Freeze, going 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in a 2015 campaign capped by a 48-20 shellacking of Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl.

It’s finally here. The first full week of the 2016 college football season. Sure, California and Hawaii kicked off the season last week in Australia, but that was a stale appetizer compared with the five-star full-course meal coming up in the next few days.We talk about the opening lines on four key games with John Lester, senior lines manager for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

No. 3 Oklahoma (-10) vs. No. 13 Houston

This is a huge season opener for both teams, as a loss would immediately have them on the outside looking in for the College Football Playoff at the end of the year. It’s technically a neutral-site contest, since it’s not at the Cougars’ TDECU Stadium, but it’s still in Houston at NRG Stadium, home of the NFL’s Texans.

The Sooners are coming off an excellent 11-2 SU season (9-4 ATS) in which they reached the playoffs, losing to Clemson 37-17 as a 3.5-point favorite in the Orange Bowl, which served as one of the semifinals. Oklahoma made it that far on the strength of a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS run to cap the regular season.

Houston was in potential playoff consideration, too, getting out of the gate 10-0 SU before stubbing its toe at Connecticut. Still, the Cougars finished 13-1 SU (9-4 ATS), capped by a 38-24 victory over Florida State as a 7.5-point underdog in the Peach Bowl.

“This is possibly the opening week matchup I’m looking forward to the most,” Lester said of Saturday’s noon Eastern contest. “It’s really a boom-or-bust game for both teams. If Houston can somehow pull off the upset, then the College Football Playoff mid-major talk won’t cease until season’s end.”

Bookmaker opened the Sooners at -10 back in early June and moved to -10.5 earlier this month, but it reverted to 10 on Aug. 19 and has since remained there.

“We haven’t moved off the opener except for a half-point twice in almost three months, so we feel confident this number will attract fairly even action.”

No. 17 Southern California vs. No. 1 Alabama (-10.5)

Two storied programs highlight the first full Saturday of the season, playing on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Top-ranked Alabama is coming off its fourth national title in the last seven years, blasting Michigan State 38-0 laying 10 points in the playoff semifinals, then edging Clemson 45-40 as a 6-point fave in an exhilarating championship game.

That capped a 14-1 SU, 8-7 ATS season in which the Crimson Tide won their last 12 games.

Southern Cal is coming off another bumpy season that included a coaching change from Steve Sarkisian to Clay Helton, as the Trojans went 8-6 SU, 6-8 ATS. But USC is ranked in the top 20 to start the season, so clearly there’s some optimism in Helton’s first full year at the helm.

“This is another matchup that will garner a huge handle at our shop,” Lester said of the 8 p.m. Eastern kickoff. “Sharp bettors haven’t seemed too interested in this one, as the half-point movement is mostly due to square support on the defending champs. My guess is we’ll see this line continue to creep up as we get closer to kickoff.”

No. 9 Notre Dame (-3) at Texas

It’s a Sunday evening showdown of traditional college football powers deep in the heart of Texas, where Notre Dame will look to put behind it the arrests of several players in two separate incidents earlier this month. The Fighting Irish were in the hunt for one of the four playoff spots last year before a 38-36 loss at Stanford catching 4 points in the regular-season finale.

Notre Dame then got blitzed by Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, losing 44-28 as a 4.5-point pup to complete a 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS season.

Meanwhile, Texas hasn’t sniffed national championship contention since losing the title game to Alabama after the 2009 regular season. Last year, the Longhorns went 5-7 SU and ATS, though they capped the season with a 23-17 upset of host Baylor as a 21-point underdog.

“Our business couldn’t ask for a better Week 1 Sunday night matchup, as bankrolls are full and we have two teams with massive followings,” Lester said of the 7:30 p.m. Eastern kickoff. “In the first week of June, we opened this game at Irish -4.5, and early, sharp action came in on Texas. Earlier this month, the line moved as high as -5, but during the past week, more Longhorn money from smart players pushed it down to a field goal.”

No. 12 Mississippi vs. No. 4 Florida State (-4)

A Monday night contest caps the first full week of college football, with an 8 p.m. Eastern kickoff.

Florida State has consistently been in the national championship chase lately, winning it all in the 2013 season and making the first-ever playoff in 2014 – where it lost to Oregon in one semifinal – before dropping off just a bit last year. The Seminoles went 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in 2015, including a 38-24 loss to Houston as a 7.5-point chalk in the Peach Bowl.

Mississippi has been on the rise the past few years under Hugh Freeze, going 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS in a 2015 campaign capped by a 48-20 shellacking of Oklahoma State laying 7.5 points in the Sugar Bowl.

“It’s been a roller coaster of line movement for this Monday night matchup,” Lester said. “For the first month and a half, the money was heavy on Florida State, sending the spread to as high as -6.5. Once it hit that peak, we started seeing some sharper money on Ole Miss. The number dropped to -3.5 a couple of weeks ago. We’ve seen both sides of the betting spectrum.”

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 1

I'll add Sat., Sun. and Mon. as soon as they're available.

Thurs - Sept, 1

Indiana at Florida INT, 7:30 ET
Indiana: 45-61 ATS in games played on turf
Florida INT: 1-8 ATS in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63

Charlotte at Louisville, 7:00 ET
Charlotte: 2-6 ATS as an underdog
Louisville: 7-3 ATS in non-conference games

Tulane at Wake Forest, 7:00 ET
Tulane: 4-1 ATS in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45
Wake Forest: 1-6 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points

Rice at Western Kentucky, 8:00 ET
Rice: 2-9 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 17 points
W Kentucky: 11-14 ATS as a home favorite

South Carolina at Vanderbilt, 8:00 ET
S Carolina: 1-3 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Vanderbilt: 10-6 ATS against conference opponents

Oregon State at Minnesota, 9:00 ET
Oregon St: 3-12 ATS as an underdog
Minnesota: 5-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Appalachian State at Tennessee, 7:30 ET
Appalachian St: 1-5 ATS in games played on a grass field
Tennessee: 10-6 ATS as a favorite


Fri - Sept, 2

Ball State at Georgia State, 7:00 ET
Ball St: 15-4 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Georgia St: 3-8 ATS in dome games

Army at Temple, 7:00 ET
Army: 7-17 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Temple: 4-2 ATS in the first month of the season

Colorado State at Colorado, 8:00 ET
Colorado St: 5-9 ATS against Pac Twelve conference opponents
Colorado: 11-7 ATS as a neutral field favorite

Kansas State at Stanford, 9:00 ET
Kansas St: 1-3 ATS in the first two weeks of the season
Stanford: 8-0 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points

Toledo at Arkansas State, 9:00 ET
Toledo: 4-6 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Arkansas St: 13-5 ATS as a favorite

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Thursday's Tip Sheet
August 30, 2016


This season’s Thursday opening night card features seven contests including several major conference teams in action in important games.

Here is a look at three of the biggest games that will formally open up the 2016 college football season Thursday night.

Matchup: South Carolina Gamecocks at Vanderbilt Commodores
Venue: Vanderbilt Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 1, 8:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Vanderbilt -3½, Over/Under 43
Last Meeting: 2015, at South Carolina (-1½) 19, Vanderbilt 10

Vanderbilt hasn’t won outright in this series since 2008 and it looks like this will be the first time the Commodores will be a closing line favorite in this series since 1999. Despite losing seven in a row in the series four of those losses came by 10 or fewer points and this year Vanderbilt appears to be in a better position to start the season. After Vanderbilt delivered back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2012 and 2013 James Franklin departed for Penn State.

Stanford assistant Derek Mason took over the program and the first two years have been challenging as the roster turned over dramatically before the 2014 season and it has taken some time for things to fall in place. Despite only going from 3-9 to 4-8 last season, the statistics painted the picture of a dramatically improved team and the Commodores picked up two SEC wins. This will be a key game in the bowl hopes for Vanderbilt with a fairly experienced squad in the third year under Mason.

South Carolina was among the top SEC teams from 2011 to 2013 finishing 11-2 with bowl wins in each of those seasons despite never claiming the division title. The Gamecocks have dipped by four wins in each of the past two seasons hitting rock bottom last season at 3-9 with longtime head coach Steve Spurrier resigning midseason.

Former Florida head coach Will Muschamp is taking over after spending last season as the defensive coordinator at Auburn. This year’s team is short on experience and a quarterback battle has taken place all summer between freshman Brandon McIlwain and senior Perry Orth with still no announcement early this week. The offense could be extremely young this season but the defense does have a few veteran playmakers returning and Muschamp’s influence on that side of the ball should point to modest improvement.

Last season these teams met mid-season with both squads sitting with just two wins. South Carolina wound up with a 19-10 win boosted by turnovers and a slight production edge in Columbia. For two teams that look poised to face an uphill battle to deliver SEC wins with making a bowl game perhaps a long shot, this looks like a critical game. For Vanderbilt this is the type of win the team needs to cement the positive trajectory in Mason’s third season while for South Carolina Muschamp can take a big step towards reestablishing himself as coach to contend with after his failed stop in Florida and marginal results last season at Auburn. Both teams also face formidable games ahead to close out September and getting in the win column early could make a big difference in what direction the season heads towards.

Historical Trends: While Vanderbilt is on 4-21 and 0-7 S/U runs in this series the Commodores are on an 8-5-1 ATS run vs. South Carolina since 2002. Vanderbilt has lost outright in five of the last six home openers though they have been dogged in four of those games. Since 2011 Vanderbilt is 17-1 S/U and 11-7 ATS as a home favorite including going 4-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 or fewer points. South Carolina went 0-7 S/U and 3-4 ATS as an underdog last season. Going back to 2005 South Carolina is 19-12-1 ATS as a road underdog. South Carolina has often been in the spotlight in the opening week and the Gamecocks are 15-1 S/U but just 8-8 in the season opener since 2000.

Matchup: Oregon State Beavers at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Venue: TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 1, 9:00 PM ET – BTN
Line: Minnesota -13, Over/Under 54½
Last Meeting: 1981, at Minnesota (-10½) 42, Oregon State 12

Minnesota made Tracy Claeys the full-time head coach late last season and after getting an unexpected bowl bid the Gophers made the most of it with the first bowl win for the program in over a decade. With the changes in the schedule alone the Gophers can expect to have an improved record in 2016 as they faced TCU, Michigan, and Ohio State last season with those squads absent from the schedule this season. This will be an important opening game for Minnesota taking on a Pac-12 team in a game the team should be expected to win.

Senior quarterback Mitch Leidner isn’t a great downfield threat and the Gophers lost last season’s top receiver but the running game should remain a strong point for the offense. The defense had several talented players from last season depart and while the depth may not be as strong this season the numbers may improve. It won’t be a surprise if Minnesota matches last season’s win count by the end of October and emerges as a Big Ten West contender before heading into a trio of big games in November but this is the type of dangerous game that has tripped up the program in the past.

Gary Andersen was the head coach at Wisconsin for two seasons and he beat Minnesota twice in that run. After a 10-3 season but a disastrous 2014 Big Ten championship game Andersen surprised most by leaving the Badgers to take over at Oregon State. He inherited a challenging situation in Corvallis with very few returning players particularly on defense where his area of expertise sides. Oregon State started 2-1 last season before going 0-9 in Pac-12 play and few of those games were competitive, outscored by an average of 24 points per game in conference play. This year’s team has more experience and depth and in a second season under Andersen improvement is possible but the Beavers are unanimously expected to remain at the bottom of the Pac-12.

Last season both teams faced Michigan in losing efforts but the results were contrasting as Oregon State was out-gained by almost 300 yards in a 35-7 loss with the Beavers netting just 138 yards on offense. The Gophers meanwhile appeared to have a ranked Michigan team beat before a touchdown was overturned on replay and Minnesota botched its final opportunity in a game where Minnesota had a 461-296 yardage edge in the 3-point loss for one of the best performances any team had against a very good Wolverines defense. With a favorable schedule Minnesota may not need this game for a bowl bid but it is certainly an important tone-setting game for a program that has been caught in mediocrity for some time. For Oregon State this would be a great opening win that could give the team confidence to compete much better in the grueling Pac-12 campaign ahead.

Historical Trends: While often playing lighter competition Minnesota is on a 16-5 S/U and a 12-6 ATS run in the season opener while going 9-4 ATS in home openers since 2003 with four consecutive covers in the first TCF Bank Stadium game. Minnesota is just 3-8 ATS since 2007 as a double-digit home favorite however as this squad has often played to the level of competition in recent years with some narrow escapes in several non-conference games including going 0-3 ATS in narrow wins over Colorado State, Kent State, and Ohio early last season. Oregon State is 6-18 ATS overall the past two seasons as one of the worst teams in back in the nation as few recent trends are positive. Going back to 1998 Oregon State is 20-19-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog and the Beavers are 23-16 ATS as a road underdog since 2006.

Matchup: Appalachian State Mountaineers at Tennessee Volunteers
Venue: Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tennessee
Time/TV: Thursday, Sep. 1, 7:30 PM ET - SEC
Line: Tennessee -20, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: None

The expectations are justifiably sky high for Tennessee this season with Butch Jones improving the team’s record in each of the last two seasons. Last season’s 9-4 squad had a strong resume with the losses coming in tight games against great competition, losing by seven in double-overtime to Oklahoma, by one against Florida, by four against Arkansas, and by five against Alabama. In three seasons at Tennessee, Jones is only 10-14 SU in SEC play but most are expecting the Volunteers to be the top team in the SEC East this season.

The offense and defense will both return the majority of the starters from last season’s team led by quarterback Joshua Dobbs who was very efficient but not prolific last season as Tennessee led with its rushing attack. Statistically last season’s defense wasn’t that much better than the 2014 outfit but there were several dominant performances down the stretch with Tennessee allowing just 42 points in the final four games combined.

Appalachian State has two very difficult non-conference games in September with this game and a home date with Miami in two weeks otherwise the Mountaineers would be considered a serious candidate for the Group of 5 major bowl bid. After opening the 2014 season 1-5 in the move to FBS play, Appalachian State is 17-2 S/U since and this team should be hungry in 2016 after narrowly missing out on the Sun Belt title last season. The ground attack leads the way for the Mountaineers averaging 271 yards per game on 5.8 yards per carry last season and all the top rushers from last season have returned for this season. Appalachian State only allowed 19.1 points per game last season and with nine starters back the defense should be formidable though this is a significant jump in class.

By mid-October Tennessee will know if it is a SEC and national contender or just headed for another good season as the Volunteers have most of the big games in the first half of the season including a brutal run facing Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Alabama in consecutive weeks. While overlooking this opener is unlikely Tennessee also has a unique showcase game next week vs. Virginia Tech with the game to be played on the Bristol Motor Speedway. While the Mountaineers lost 41-10 vs. Clemson in a similar test last season they were out-gained by just 95 yards in that game for a competitive showing with turnovers helping the Tigers to pull away. For Appalachian State players in the region that were overlooked by SEC schools this should be a huge opportunity but Tennessee scored 45 or more points five times last season and in a similar opening test last season Tennessee was caught in a shootout with Bowling Green but still managed to win by 29.

Historical Trends: Appalachian State has a short history at the FBS level but the Mountaineers have covered in seven of the last nine road games. The Mountaineers have wound up with a slight losing ATS record in each of its two FBS seasons though they were an underdog just once all last season, +19 at Clemson. Tennessee is just 11-17 ATS at home since 2012 and in three seasons under Jones Tennessee is 6-9 ATS as a home favorite. The Volunteers are 8-4 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more since 2010 and Tennessee had won 20 consecutive home openers S/U before losing in double-overtime vs. Oklahoma last season.

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Big 12 no longer considering East Carolina, UNLV, New Mexico
September 1, 2016

East Carolina, UNLV and New Mexico are out of the Big 12's expansion derby.

Officials at each school said Wednesday that they were notified by the Big 12 that they are no longer being considered for membership.

East Carolina spokesman Tom McClellan says Commissioner Bob Bowlsby notified Chancellor Cecil Staton of the decision Tuesday by phone.

Athletic director Jeff Compher says it's ''obviously not the decision we were hoping for,'' but expressed satisfaction that ''we were able to tell our story to not only the Big 12, but the entire nation.''

East Carolina is beginning its third season in the American Athletic Conference after winning two Conference USA championships in football in the 2000s.

UNLV President Len Jessup and athletic director Tina Kunzer-Murphy issued a statement later in the day to acknowledge the Rebels were no longer being considered. UNLV has been a member of the Mountain West since 1990.

''As the landscape of intercollegiate athletics continues to change, ensuring UNLV is properly positioned and is a member of a conference that is the best fit for our university and community remains part of our long-term vision,'' the statement said. ''We remain committed to fulfilling our responsibility to be a strong and successful member of the Mountain West.''

New Mexico President Robert told the Albuquerque Journal that the school ''received very positive feedback from the Big 12,'' but was informed it would no longer be part the conference's expansion search. The Lobos are also a member of the Mountain West

It's not yet clear if any other schools have received similar notification from the league, which announced July 19 that its presidents had authorized Bowlsby to begin evaluating schools for possible expansion of the 10-team conference by two or four members.

The conference has not commented publicly on its plans nor has it committed to adding any schools.

Bowlsby has put no timetable on the Big 12's decision, though he has said the conference would like to move quickly and not interfere with the football season. The presidents meet again in mid-October.

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Richt's hiring netted Miami some new fans - from Georgia
September 1, 2016

CORAL GABLES, Fla. (AP) Cindy Duke's father went to Georgia. She has a daughter currently at Georgia. She's been a Georgia football fan for her entire life.

But when Georgia opens its season in Atlanta - where she lives - on Saturday, Duke won't be there.

She'll be at her first Miami game instead.

Mark Richt's hiring at Miami, after his successful 15-year run at Georgia came to an end last fall, has already brought something that the Hurricanes weren't necessarily expecting. There's a slew of new Hurricane season-ticket-holders from the Peach State now, people who apparently decided that they can simultaneously be Richt fans and Bulldog fans.

''Since Mark Richt came to Georgia, I've been a fan of his,'' Duke said. ''We saw so many changes in the way the program was handled and just were really impressed with the way he straightened it out. Making things more about the players and the students as a whole person, not just football players. To watch him handle things the way he has, it's been very impressive.''

For his part, Richt seemed flattered to hear that plenty of people from Georgia bought Miami tickets in the weeks and months after his hiring. His debut as the coach of his alma mater - Richt graduated in 1982 - is Saturday night, when the Hurricanes play host to Florida A&M.

He got plenty of calls and letters from Georgia fans wishing him well after his move back to Coral Gables, and was warmly received when he appeared at a team end-of-season event after his departure from Athens and subsequent hiring by the Hurricanes.

''It's not impossible to be a Georgia Bulldog fan and a Hurricane fan,'' Richt said. ''It's two different leagues. How many times has Miami played Georgia in the last 25 years?''

That would be none - and none for the 25 years before that, either. The last Miami-Georgia game was in 1966.

''There may come a day when we play each other and hopefully it'll be a significant moment,'' Richt said. ''I think a lot of people appreciate how I went about my business at Georgia. You have a fan base, alumni, you get attached to your team, to your people. You take a personal interest in them.''

Duke said she chatted with Richt from time to time, and that they would sometimes attend the same church in Athens, Georgia.

''He's the real deal,'' Duke said. ''It's about more to us than just Georgia football. I wasn't real happy about the way things ended at Georgia, but I'm happy for him ... to be able to go back to his alma mater. So we just want to keep following him and be supportive of him.''

Richt isn't just bringing in new fans. He's bringing some old ones back as well.

Chris Novack held the school record in the 5,000-meter run for 27 years, from 1986 through 2013. He was a scholarship runner at Miami, graduating in 1988. He spent most of his life living in South Florida, though he now calls Savannah, Georgia home.

On Saturday, for the first time in years, he's going to a Hurricanes game. He had season tickets when Miami played home games at the Orange Bowl and now has them again.

''I can't underestimate how the loss of the Orange Bowl hurt so many people,'' Novack said. ''Mark coming in, and the new stadium, I think it's rejuvenated the program. I can tell you there's people in Georgia, my co-workers, who are now Miami fans because of Mark Richt.''

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UNC-Georgia, FSU-Ole Miss headline Week 1 in ACC
September 1, 2016

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 22 North Carolina vs. No. 18 Georgia, in Atlanta. Three SEC-ACC matchups headline opening weekend, but the Tar Heels' trip to Atlanta stands out because it's the only one of them in which the ACC team is lower-ranked. North Carolina had a breakout 2015 season, reaching its first ACC championship game after winning the Coastal Division, and the best way for the Tar Heels to prove their staying power is by knocking off the Bulldogs in a de facto road game and in Kirby Smart's debut as Georgia coach. ''We understand the importance of it,'' UNC fifth-year coach Larry Fedora said.

BEST MATCHUP: Clemson offense vs. Auburn defense. Clemson QB Deshaun Watson looks to give his Heisman Trophy candidacy a jump start when he faces an Auburn defense that offensive-minded coach Gus Malzahn has said could be the best of his four-year tenure at the school. That will be put to the test by Watson, the first player in FBS history with 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in one season. Auburn will rely on linemen Carl Lawson and Montravius Adams to contain Watson. ''This group has a chance to be as good as we ever had on paper,'' Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Eight current ACC players have rushed for 1,000 or more yards in a season. That's by far the most in the league at one time. The previous high of five was set in 2009 and matched five years later. Seven of them did it last year, led by Florida State's Dalvin Cook (1,691), while Pittsburgh's James Conner did it in 2014.

LONG SHOT: Wake Forest is a 17-point favorite against Tulane in a matchup of teams coming off consecutive 3-9 seasons. The Green Wave figure to debut a run-heavy system that new coach Willie Fritz's Georgia Southern teams used to lead the Bowl Subdivision in rushing in each of the past two years. If Tulane can control the ball and the clock, it will give itself a chance to win.

IMPACT PLAYER: It's guaranteed to be emotional Saturday when Pittsburgh plays host to Villanova and Conner makes his return. The 2014 ACC player of the year suffered a season-ending knee injury in the 2015 opener and then was diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma in November. Working out through chemotherapy, and taking part in spring practice while wearing a surgical mask, Conner was declared cancer-free in May. New offensive coordinator Matt Canada, formerly at North Carolina State, has been tinkering with playing multiple running backs in an effort to get Conner on the field.