The bum's 2016 nfl preseason schedule along with picks and news !!

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First Coach to be Fired
August 26, 2016


NFL fans know going into every year that the 32 head coaches who begin the season all aren't likely to finish the year. It's always a fun discussion as to what coach will be relieved of his duties first, and Sportsbook.ag has odds on that for bettors again this season. It's a solid list with the virtual locks to finish the year like Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick offering the biggest odds (+30000 and +50000 respectively), but there are some situations out there that could pay off nicely for bettors.

Sportsbook.ag First NFL Head Coach to Leave Odds

Detroit's Jim Caldwell (+500) and San Diego's Mike McCoy (+550) top the list as the favorites to be gone first and both are dealing with some tough situations in their respective organizations. Caldwell lost his best playmaker Calvin Johnson to retirement this off-season, and the leftover weapons around QB Matt Stafford in Detroit are pretty thin. Caldwell's been victimized by a star player being injured/gone before as he was fired from the Colts head coaching job after the 2011 season when QB Peyton Manning was lost for the year. It would be a cruel repeat of history for Caldwell to experience that again, but there are many reasons he's the favorite on this list.

McCoy doesn't exactly have a talented team out there in San Diego either, but growing discourse about the team's future in the city and how soon they likely move out of San Diego could cement his future on the unemployment line. The Chargers are projected to be the worst team in the AFC West and if they don't get off to at least a decent start to the year, it will be McCoy's head that rolls first.

Aside from those two guys, three interesting names here are Chuck Pagano of the Colts (+1200), Mike Mularkey of the Titans (+1800), and Marvin Lewis of the Bengals (+4000).

Indianapolis had a dreadful 2015 campaign after rising through the ranks of the AFC the previous few seasons and making the AFC Championship in 2014. The Colts know they are in win-now mode with QB Andrew Luck entering his prime and if we see another bad start from this team, management might decide the time is right to get a new voice in the locker room. Of all the 32 coaches in the league, Pagano's probably the one that needs to get off to a fast start in 2016.

Mike Mularkey is in his second year of trying to rebuild the Titans franchise, but his head coaching history isn't exactly good and Tennessee does not want to suffer through another 3-13 or 4-12 campaign. The Titans aren't likely to compete for the Super Bowl or even a playoff spot this year, but showing significant improvement and finishing around the .500 mark is the most realistic goal the organization can have in 2016. If that becomes very “unrealistic” by the time mid-October arrives, Mularkey will be gone.

And then there is the Bengals Marvin Lewis, who at times seems invincible within the Cincinnati organization, unable to get let go despite of his results. The Bengals have high aspirations for this year, wanting and having the talent able to win it all, but this team can't get out of its own way in the big games with Marvin Lewis at the helm.

It's great that he's led the Bengals to five consecutive playoff appearances, but an 0-5 SU record in those playoff games and a winless playoff record overall during his now 14-year tenure as head coach means something has to change soon. If the Bengals get off to a horrific start out of the gates at something like 1-5 or 2-6 SU, we could very easily see this change made.

First NFL Head Coach to Leave Post (Inclusive of Dismissal - Firing - Resigning - or Retirement) - per Sportsbook.ag

Jim Caldwell (DET) +500
Mike McCoy (SD) +550
Jeff Fisher (STL) +900
Chuck Pagano (IND) +1200
Gus Bradley (JAC) +1300
Bill OBrien (HOU) +1400
Dan Quinn (ATL) +1600
Rex Ryan (BUF) +1600
Mike Mularkey (TEN) +1800
Jason Garrett (DAL) +2000
Chip Kelly (SF) +2500
Jay Gruden (WAS) +2500
John Fox (CHI) +2500
Sean Payton (NO) +2500
Hue Jackson (CLE) +3000
Jack Del Rio (OAK) +3000
Adam Gase (MIA) +4000
Ben McAdoo (NYG) +4000
Dirk Koetter (TB) +4000
Doug Pederson (PHI) +4000
Marvin Lewis (CIN) +4000
Todd Bowles (NYJ) +4000
Andy Reid (KC) +7000
John Harbaugh (BAL) +8000
Mike McCarthy (GB) +8000
Gary Kubiak (DEN) +10000
Mike Tomlin (PIT) +10000
Mike Zimmer (MIN) +10000
Ron Rivera (CAR) +10000
Bruce Arians (ARI) +20000
Pete Carroll (SEA) +30000
Bill Belichick (NE) +50000

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Saturday's Preseason Tips
August 25, 2016

Chiefs (-1 ½, 41) at Bears – 1:00 PM EST

Kansas City
Head Coach: Andy Reid (32-38 SU, 30-36-4 in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Alex Smith, Nick Foles, Aaron Murray
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Terez Paylor

The Chiefs have been on the wrong side of a pair of one-point defeats to NFC West foes in the preseason. After allowing a Hail Mary on the final play in a Week 1 home loss to Seattle, Kansas City failed to score a point in the second half of last Saturday’s 21-20 defeat at Los Angeles. The Chiefs’ passing game was strong against the Rams by compiling 308 yards through the air, including 133 from former Ram Nick Foles. In Reid’s three seasons as head coach, the Chiefs have put together a 2-1 SU/ATS record in the “dress rehearsal” game, including a 34-10 blowout of the Titans last August.

Chicago
Head Coach: John Fox (31-27 SU, 28-29-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Connor Shaw
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Zach Zaidman

The Bears grabbed a fortunate backdoor cover in a 23-22 defeat at New England last week by scoring 22-yard touchdown on the final play of regulation (also converted the two-point conversion). Chicago jumped out to a quick 11-0 lead before New England put up the next 23 points even though Tom Brady sat for the Patriots. The Bears have lost each of their last two Game 3’s of the preseason, with both defeats coming by double-digits, including a 21-10 setback at Cincinnati in 2015.

Eagles at Colts (-3, 42 ½) – 7:00 PM EST

Philadelphia
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel, McLeod Bethel-Thompson
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jeff McLane

Last preseason, the Eagles couldn’t stop scoring points under Chip Kelly. This time around under Pederson, Philadelphia has scored just 34 points through two victories, but has held the opposition to a total of nine points. Philadelphia pitched a shutout of Pittsburgh last Thursday, as the Eagles intercepted Landry Jones four times and returned one of those picks for a score. Sam Bradford put together an efficient performance at Pittsburgh by completing 14-of-19 passes for 115 yards, while rookie Carson Wentz continues to be sidelined due to a rib injury.

Indianapolis
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (6-12 SU, 8-10 ATS preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Scott Tolzien, Stephen Morris
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Stephen Holder

The Colts are one of two teams to be involved in a pair of one-point decisions in the preseason (Chiefs the other), but it’s rare to see a club on each end of the same exact score. One week after rallying past Buffalo, 19-18, the Colts fell to the Ravens, 19-18 at home as Baltimore went ahead on a pick-two, an interception return on a two-point conversion taken back for a score. Luck was solid in his first preseason action by completing all eight of his passes for 71 yards, but Tolzien and Morris found the end zone with touchdown passes. The Colts have dropped five straight home preseason games since 2014, but Indianapolis has won two of the past three “dress rehearsal” contests.

Lions at Ravens (-3 ½, 43) – 7:00 PM EST

Detroit
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell (9-13 SU, 11-11 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Dan Orlovsky, Jake Rudock (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Dave Birkett

The Lions are facing their third consecutive AFC North squad in the preseason after splitting games against the Steelers and Bengals. In last week’s home loss to Cincinnati, Detroit allowed less than 300 yards, but the Bengals scored four touchdowns, including an interception return for a score. Stafford has been solid in his limited action, completing 12-of-17 passes for 171 yards and no interceptions, but has yet to throw a touchdown. The Lions have won and covered four of their last five road exhibition contests, while posting a 5-1 ATS mark in six preseason games as an underdog during Caldwell’s tenure.

Baltimore
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (22-12 SU, 21-13 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Ryan Mallett, Josh Johnson, Jarrod Johnson
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jamison Hensley

Flacco has yet to take a snap for Baltimore in the preseason, but the Super Bowl winning quarterback is expected to start against Detroit. The Ravens have won each of their first two preseason contests by a combined four points, both as an underdogs against the Panthers and Colts. Baltimore gained 251 yards of offense at Indianapolis, one week after racking up 288 yards against Carolina. The Ravens have split their last four Game 3’s of the preseason, while winning five straight exhibition contests at M&T Bank Stadium since 2014.

Giants (-2 ½, 43) at Jets – 7:30 PM EST

N.Y. Giants
Head Coach: Ben McAdoo (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Logan Thomas
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ralph Vacchiano

“Big Blue” has been less than impressive in two preseason losses to the Dolphins and Bills, tallying just 10 points in those defeats. New York posted only seven first downs and 166 yards of offense in last week’s 21-0 shutout at the hands of Buffalo, while turning the ball over four times. The Giants and Jets have alternated wins and losses in each of the past seven preseason contests since 2009 with the Jets winning last season, 28-18. The underdog has compiled a 5-2 ATS record in this span.

N.Y. Jets
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (4-2 SU, 4-2 in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, Bryce Petty
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Rich Cimini

The Jets have split a pair of preseason games, scoring a combined 35 points against the Jaguars and Redskins. New York is trying to figure out who its second quarterback will be behind Fitzpatrick, as Petty put up impressive numbers against Washington by throwing for 242 yards and two touchdowns. Smith struggled by completing 6-of-13 passes for 47 yards and an interception against the Redskins, one week after throwing for 79 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville. The Jets have been up and down in the last six preseason “dress rehearsals” by going 3-3 SU/ATS, while the last three meetings with the Giants have flown OVER the total.

Titans at Raiders (-3 ½, 43 ½) – 8:00 PM EST

Tennessee
Head Coach: Mike Mularkey (7-7 SU, 8-6 in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Marcus Mariota, Matt Cassel, Alex Tanney
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jim Wyatt

Tennessee hits the road for the final two games of the preseason after routing San Diego and losing to Carolina at home. The Titans allowed nearly 400 yards to the Panthers in last Saturday’s 26-16 defeat, including 340 through the air. Mariota put together an efficient 9-of-10 line for 104 yards, a touchdown, and an interception against the defending NFC champions, as the Heisman Trophy winner has thrown one incompletion in two preseason games. The Titans have lost five of their past six road preseason games since 2013, while allowing 65 points in two away setbacks last August.

Oakland
Head Coach: Jack Del Rio (23-19 SU, 22-18-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Derek Carr, Matt McGloin, Connor Cook (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Vic Tafur

The Raiders finally return home after spending the last two weeks at Arizona and Green Bay. Oakland split those two contests, while the offense was held out of the end zone in last week’s 20-12 defeat at Lambeau Field. The lone touchdown for the Raiders came on a blocked punt recovered in the end zone in the final minutes of regulation, as Oakland’s offense mustered 187 yards. The Raiders have won five of their previous eight home exhibition games, but own a 1-4 ATS as a home favorite.

Rams at Broncos (-5, 42) – 9:00 PM EST

Los Angeles
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher (40-42 SU, 38-42-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Case Keenum, Jared Goff (Rookie), Sean Mannion, Dylan Thompson
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Gary Klein

The Rams leave Southern California for the first time in the preseason, as L.A. looks to improve to 3-0. Following a comeback victory over the Cowboys in the opener, the Rams rallied again for a 21-20 triumph over the Chiefs last Saturday. Los Angeles allowed 390 yards to Kansas City, while the Chiefs held the ball for 36:30. Goff improved from Week 1 by throwing for 82 yards and the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. The Rams have dropped seven of their past eight road preseason games, but have managed a 4-4 ATS record.

Denver
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (23-15 SU, 23-13-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Trevor Siemian, Mark Sanchez, Paxton Lynch (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Mike Klis

The Broncos put together perhaps the most dominant performance in a Week 1 shutout of the Bears on the road, but Denver was tripped up by San Francisco in Week 2. The 49ers put up 400 yards on Denver’s vaunted defense, while Lynch continues to fight for the starting job by tossing two touchdowns and accumulating 113 yards through the air. Siemian is expected to start for Denver in spite of a sore shoulder, as the former Northwestern standout was intercepted once and threw for 75 yards against San Francisco. Denver has compiled a 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS mark in its last four “dress rehearsals,” while failing to cover twice as a favorite of at least 6 ½ points.

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PRESEASON RECORD ALL OPINONS

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 15-24-0 38.46% -5700

O/U Picks 17-18-4 48.57% -1400


SATURDAY, AUGUST 27

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

KC at CHI 01:00 PM

KC -2.5

O 40.5

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NFL EVENING PICKS ( OPINONS ONLY )

DET at BAL 07:00 PM

BAL -1.5

U 42.5


PHI at IND 07:00 PM

IND -1.5

U 44.5


NYG at NYJ 07:30 PM

NYG -1.0

U 43.0


TEN at OAK 08:00 PM

OAK -3.0

O 41.5


LA at DEN 09:00 PM

LA +5.0

O 42.0

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Sunday's Preseason Tips
August 27, 2016

Chargers at Vikings (-4, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST - FOX

San Diego
Head Coach: Mike McCoy (6-8 SU, 8-5-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Mike Bercovici (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Michael Gehlken

Rivers sat out San Diego’s second preseason game, as the Lightning Bolts scored a defensive touchdown and kicked four field goals in a 19-7 victory over the Cardinals last week. San Diego’s rushing attack was anything but by accumulating 46 yards on 27 carries, including 18 yards on three attempts from Melvin Gordon. Rivers and Gordon hooked up on San Diego’s only offensive touchdown of the preseason in a Week 1 loss at Tennessee. The Chargers’ rushing defense stepped up after allowing 288 yards to the Titans by limiting the Cardinals to 63 yards on the ground.

Minnesota
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Teddy Bridgewater, Shaun Hill, Joel Stave (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Chris Tomasson

The Vikings have been nearly automatic in the preseason under Zimmer, winning all but one game since 2014 in the exhibition season. Adrian Peterson hasn’t played yet in the preseason, as the Vikings’ running back will not see a snap until Minnesota’s season opener at Tennessee. Bridgewater missed last week’s victory at Seattle as the former first round pick will play on Sunday. The Vikings escaped past the Seahawks, 18-11 on a late interception return for a touchdown in spite of racking up 258 yards on offense. Minnesota owns a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record at home under Zimmer in the preseason, while winning both of the “dress rehearsal” contests.

Cardinals at Texans (-1, 41 ½) – 4:25 PM EST – FOX

Arizona
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (6-8 SU, 7-6-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Matt Barkley, Jake Coker (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Kent Somers

The Cardinals’ offense hasn’t produced many points through two preseason losses, posting 13 points in defeats to the Raiders and Chargers. Arizona outgained Oakland in the exhibition opener, 383-322, but the Raiders took advantage of three Cardinals’ turnovers. The Cardinals’ defense held the Chargers’ offense out of the end zone last week, but Arizona’s offense put up only 209 yards, including 37 passing from Palmer. Arizona has not been listed as an underdog yet this preseason, but the Cardinals have been successful in this role since 2014 by going 4-0-1 ATS when getting points in the exhibition season.

Houston
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Brandon Weeden
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Aaron Wilson

The Texans look to capitalize off an AFC South title last season as Houston has jumped out to a 2-0 record in the preseason after victories over San Francisco and New Orleans. In last Saturday’s 16-9 triumph over the Saints, Osweiler hit Will Fuller for a 19-yard score for the only touchdown in the game, as the Texans created three takeaways in the win. Since O’Brien took over in 2014, the Texans have cashed the UNDER in nine of 10 preseason contests, while winning both of their Week 3 games, including a 27-13 victory at New Orleans last August.

Bengals at Jaguars (-1 ½, 43) – 8:00 PM EST - NBC

Cincinnati
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (29-26 SU, 29-25-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, A.J. McCarron, Keith Wenning, Joe Licata (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Jim Owcazarski

After dropping a one-point decision to Minnesota in its preseason opener, Cincinnati rebounded in a big way in last week’s 30-14 rout of Detroit as two-point road underdogs. The Bengals have held each of their first two opponents to 17 points or less, while taking an interception back for a score against the Lions. Cincinnati is riding a 6-2 SU/ATS stretch in the last eight preseason contests, including back-to-back wins in the “dress rehearsal” game.

Jacksonville
Head Coach: Gus Bradley (4-10 SU, 6-8 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, Brandon Allen (Rookie), Max Wittek (Rookie)
Beat Writer Twitter Follow: Ryan O’Halloran

The Jaguars squandered a 10-0 lead in a preseason opening loss to the Jets, while scoring only seven second half points in a 27-21 defeat to Tampa Bay last week. Bortles threw a pair of touchdown passes in limited action against the Buccaneers, but Jacksonville’s offense mustered only 209 yards, while one of their three touchdowns came on a pick-six. The Jags have slumped to a 4-10 preseason record since 2013, including an 0-3 record in Game 3’s.

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Ravens TE Watson tears right Achilles, likely out for season
August 27, 2016

BALTIMORE (AP) Ravens tight end Benjamin Watson has torn his right Achilles tendon and is likely lost for the season.

The injury occurred on Baltimore's first offensive play in a preseason game against the Detroit Lions on Saturday night.

Watson appeared to trip while running a pattern and slumped to the turf. After he finally got up, he had to be helped off the field.

Signed as a free agent in March, Watson was expected to be a key element in the Ravens' passing game. He had 74 catches for 825 yards and six touchdowns last season with New Orleans.

The 35-year-old broke into the league in 2004 with New England and played with Cleveland from 2010 through 2012 before going to the Saints.

He has 434 catches for 4,963 yards and 38 touchdowns in 163 games.

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Tony Romo out with another back injury, no word on return
August 27, 2016

FRISCO, Texas (AP) Tony Romo is out with yet another back injury and it's unknown when he will return, although Dallas coach Jason Garrett says he expects his star quarterback to play this season.

Garrett said Saturday that Romo sustained a broken bone in his back when he was hit from behind by Seattle's Cliff Avrill and slid awkwardly on the third play of a preseason game.

Romo tried to get back into Thursday's game and said afterward that he was OK. But Garrett said the 36-year-old woke up Friday with stiffness, and an MRI revealed Romo's fourth back injury in less than four years. The injury will not require surgery.

Garrett wouldn't rule out Romo for the regular-season opener Sept. 11 against the New York Giants. Rookie Dak Prescott, a fourth-round pick who has had a strong preseason, is the presumed starter, although Garrett wouldn't acknowledge that either.

''If you guys remember, he has played with fractures in his back before,'' Garrett said, referring to Romo's quick return from a small fracture in his back in 2014.

''So that probably more than anything else is what is not giving us a timetable. We've heard a wide range of possibilities in terms of when he would be able to play.''

The Cowboys plunged from 12-4 in 2014 to 4-12 last season, when Romo missed 12 games with a twice-broken left collarbone. Dallas went 1-11 without him.

Romo had back surgery twice in 2013, the first time during the offseason and again in December after rupturing a disk in Week 16 against Washington and missing the finale that the Cowboys lost with a playoff berth on the line.

In 2014, the four-time Pro Bowl player sustained a small fracture in his back and missed a loss to Arizona before leading the Cowboys to the NFC East title and their first playoff win since 2009.

Garrett said Romo's injury won't end his season.

''It's not related to the other back issues that he's had,'' Garrett said. ''There is a specific to the hit he took the other night in the game.''

Center Travis Frederick said the team was surprised by the news on Romo when they reported to the team's new practice facility Saturday.

''Still trying to take it in a little bit,'' Frederick said. ''The name of the game for us has always been focusing on taking things one day at a time and also have the `next man in' mentality. Being able to have Dak step up and be able to take over that role and just support him in any way that we can.''

Prescott was elevated to the backup job when incumbent Kellen Moore broke his right ankle in a training camp practice.

The former Mississippi State standout has a preseason passer rating of 137.8, completing 39 of 50 passes for 454 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He also has two rushing TDs.

The Cowboys are likely to add a veteran if Romo misses extended time, but now it figures to be as a backup to Prescott rather than the next in line behind Romo since Dallas elected not to bring in help soon after Moore's injury.

''Dak has done a nice job really at every turn starting back at training camp,'' Garrett said. ''I thought he did a particularly good job in this game against Seattle because he certainly didn't anticipate going in on the fourth play of the game.''

Now it looks as if Prescott will start in his regular-season debut, just as he did in the preseason in the first NFL game in Los Angeles in more than 20 years.

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PRESEASON OPINIONS ONLY PICKS

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 17-27-1 38.64% -6350

O/U Picks 19-22-4 46.34% -2600


SUNDAY, AUGUST 28

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SD at MIN 01:00 PM

MIN -6.0

U 41.0

ARI at HOU 04:25 PM

HOU +0.0

U 41.0

CIN at JAC 08:00 PM

CIN +1.5

O 43.0

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Close Calls - Preseason Week 3
August 29, 2016

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in the third weekend of the NFL preseason including several late scores that changed results.

Seattle Seahawks (-5½) 27, Dallas Cowboys 17 (43): Seattle took control in the third quarter of this preseason matchup Thursday night, a game marred by Tony Romo’s injury. Leading 27-10 the total that dipped from 44½ down to 43 by game time was still in doubt. After a Dallas fumble near midfield, Seattle seemed poised to add more points, but the Seahawks went for it on fourth and short on the long end of field goal range and came up empty as Trevone Boykin was sacked. Led by Jameill Showers, Dallas delivered a late touchdown drive, finding the end zone inside of two minutes to clinch the ‘over’ for many.

New England Patriots (+3) 19, Carolina Panthers 17 (44½): The Patriots led 16-3 heading into the fourth quarter and seemingly put the game away with a field goal with just over five minutes to go in the game. The Panthers posted two late scoring drives behind Joe Webb, but they failed on the two-point conversion attempt on the first score as they would have had the opportunity to force overtime on the second score had that conversion succeeded and overtime could have flipped the outcomes on both the side and the total.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) 30, Cleveland Browns 13 (43): The total on this game went upward from 41½ to a closing number of 43, right where the final score landed. With 37 points in the first half the ‘over’ certainly was in good shape, aided by a 73-yard punt return for the Buccaneers and a big pass play from the Browns just before halftime. There was just a lone field goal in the third quarter and another field goal in the fourth quarter as a late Browns drive led by rookie Cody Kessler came up empty. The final field goal was enough to hit the ‘over’ for most but the total wound up a push on the closing number.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) 27, New Orleans 14 (44½): This matchup of two of the top offensive teams in the league featured the highest total of the week. It appeared that mark would still be cleared with 38 points through three quarters and both teams moving the ball successfully. Down by 10, the Saints opted to go for it on fourth and one at the Pittsburgh 10-yard line early in the fourth quarter and that move did not pay off, costing those on the ‘over’ as well with a missed scoring opportunity. After a New Orleans interception, the Steelers added a field goal with just over three minutes to go to put the score at 27-14, but it wasn’t enough as a late Saints drive ended in an interception and the ‘under’ held on.

Washington Redskins (-3½) 21, Buffalo Bills 16 (42½): Washington had a 21-9 lead at the half, but the Bills were within five early in the third quarter and an attempt to answer by the Redskins failed as an 11-play drive ended on downs in field goal range with Washington trying to make a fourth and one conversion. The teams traded four straight punts despite picking up several first downs and E.J. Manuel failed to move the chains just ahead of the two-minute warning as the Bills went for it on fourth and 13 down by five. Manuel appeared to get redemption with 16 seconds to go in the game hitting Greg Little for a touchdown, but offensive pass interference wiped out a score that would have flipped the spread and total results. On fourth and goal from the Washington 28, the Redskins came up with an interception in the end zone to end the game and preserve narrow wins on the favorite and the ‘under’.

Baltimore Ravens (-2½) 30, Detroit Lions 9 (42½): The Ravens took control of this game in the second quarter and the ‘under’ looked promising with a 23-6 edge for the Ravens at the end of three quarters. Baltimore would add a touchdown about halfway through the final frame, but another touchdown would be needed for the ‘over’ to hit. Disaster struck those on the ‘under’ as Ravens running back Stephen Houston fumbled with the loose ball returned to the Baltimore 9-yard line in the final minutes. The Lions went backwards behind Jake Rudock however and simply settled for a short field goal as the ‘under’ held on.

New York Giants (PK) 21, New York Jets 20 (42): The Jets had a dominant yardage edge early in this game, but only led 10-0 late in the third quarter. The Giants finally got on the scoreboard just before the fourth quarter with a touchdown pass from Ryan Nassib. Early in the fourth quarter, a Bryce Petty pass was intercepted and returned 73 yards as all of sudden the Giants had a 14-10 lead. Behind rookie Christian Hackenberg, the Jets took control again with 10 points in three minutes in the middle of the fourth quarter to lead by six, which was enough to secure the underdog cover for most as the Jets were +2½ before an afternoon slide in the hours before the game started with the closing line down to even. After the Giants failed to add points on a 72-yard drive, Hackenberg gave them another chance with an interception deep in Jets territory and two plays later the Giants had a 21-20 lead. The Jets did get into Giants territory on a late drive with the total still in play and early Giants backers looking for another score, but they came up empty on a fourth and one play with just over a minute to go.

Tennessee Titans (+3) 27, Oakland Raiders 14 (41½): The total on this game slipped from 43½ to 41½ and that certainly looked like a move in the wrong direction as the first team offenses were sharp combining for 34 first half points. A productive opening drive of the second half for the Raiders wound up with a Tennessee touchdown after a 47-yard fumble return and with over 20 minutes to go the total was at 41. The Titans were content to punt with a lead and four separate times in the fourth quarter the Raiders were inside of Tennessee territory only to fail to add points with two interceptions, being stopped on downs, and running out of time on the final possession as the ‘under’ held on.

Denver Broncos (-6) 17, Los Angeles Rams 9 (41): Denver led just 10-9 at halftime as the biggest favorite of the day on Saturday. A third quarter touchdown put the Broncos past the spread but with an eight-point lead any score would spoil the cover. These teams combined for seven consecutive punts with minimal yardage at one point, but late in the game the Rams had a great scoring opportunity going 68-yards behind Sean Mannion and reaching the Denver 7-yard line. Down eight, Los Angeles needed a touchdown however and on fourth down the threat ended with an incomplete pass.

Minnesota Vikings (-6½) 23, San Diego Chargers 10 (40): While the Vikings took control of the game early in the second half with a touchdown and a two-point conversion, the Chargers did have chance to spoil the spread and total results in the final minutes. For the third straight week, the Minnesota defense held in the final minutes, this time intercepting Mike Bercovici for a touchback with the Chargers in the red zone when a touchdown would have forced at least a push or worse for those that eventually held on backing Minnesota or the ‘under’.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-2½) 26, Cincinnati Bengals 21 (42½): The Bengals had a 14-0 lead early and after a great opening drive out of the half, Cincinnati led 21-3. Jacksonville climbed within 10 by the end of the third quarter and closed the gap to just two points early in the fourth quarter as the total sat at 40 with over 11 minutes to go. The spread and total results flipped on one play as Bengals quarterback Joe Licata was intercepted with Hayes Pullard delivering a long return touchdown to seal the ‘over’ and put Jacksonville in position for the small favorite cover. Two late Cincinnati possessions resulted in harmless punts as the Jaguars got their first win.

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NFL DAILY TRANSACTIONS

LAST UPDATED: MON, AUGUST 29, 2016, 11:54 EDT

MONDAY, AUGUST 29, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Cleveland Browns Austin Davis cut
Cleveland Browns Nick Hayden cut
Cleveland Browns Paul Kruger cut
Cleveland Browns Nile Lawrence-Stample on IR, shoulder
Cleveland Browns E.J. Bibbs cut
Cleveland Browns Josh Boyce cut
Cleveland Browns Sean Baker cut

SUNDAY, AUGUST 28, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Atlanta Falcons Dashon Goldson signed from Redskins, One-year contract (through 2016)
Buffalo Bills Austin Trainor signed
Carolina Panthers Willie Smith cut
Carolina Panthers Jared Barber cut
Carolina Panthers Matthew Masifilo cut
Carolina Panthers Braxton Deaver cut
Carolina Panthers Reese Dismukes cut
Carolina Panthers Ray Drew cut
Carolina Panthers David Foucault cut
Carolina Panthers Tom Lally cut
Carolina Panthers Stephen Hill cut
Carolina Panthers Miles Shuler cut
Carolina Panthers Avius Capers cut
Chicago Bears Kieran Duncan cut
Chicago Bears Darrel Young cut
Chicago Bears Martin Wallace cut
Chicago Bears Gannon Sinclair cut
Chicago Bears Joel Ross cut
Chicago Bears Darrin Peterson cut
Chicago Bears Senorise Perry cut
Chicago Bears John Kling cut
Chicago Bears Derek Keaton cut
Chicago Bears Keith Browner cut
Indianapolis Colts Stevan Ridley signed from Lions
Kansas City Chiefs Malcolm Jackson cut
Kansas City Chiefs Curtis Feigt cut
Kansas City Chiefs Dominique Davis cut
Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry re-signed/franchise, One-year tender (through 2016)
Kansas City Chiefs Kashif Moore cut
Kansas City Chiefs Drew Nowak cut
Kansas City Chiefs Jonathan Massaquoi cut
Kansas City Chiefs Seantavius Jones cut
Kansas City Chiefs Bryce Cheek cut
New York Jets Jason Vander Laan cut
New York Jets Kyle Williams cut
New York Jets Terry Williams cut
New York Jets Devin Smith Placed on PUPL, torn right ACL
New York Jets Deion Barnes cut
New York Jets Jesse Davis cut
New York Jets Kyle Friend cut
New York Jets Shelby Harris cut
New York Jets Jarvis Harrison cut
New York Jets Ross Martin cut
New York Jets Helva Matungulu cut
New York Jets Lache Seastrunk cut
Philadelphia Eagles John DePalma cut
Philadelphia Eagles Randall Evans cut
Philadelphia Eagles Alex McCalister on IR, calf
Philadelphia Eagles Joe Walker on IR, knee
Philadelphia Eagles Denzel Rice cut
Philadelphia Eagles Rueben Randle cut
Philadelphia Eagles Nick Perry cut
Philadelphia Eagles Mike Martin cut
Philadelphia Eagles Chris Givens cut
Philadelphia Eagles Andrew Gardner cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Levi Norwood cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Jerald Hawkins on IR, shoulder
Pittsburgh Steelers Will Monday cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Julian Whigham cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Khaynin Mosley-Smith cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Giorgio Newberry cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Michael Cooper cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Issac Blakeney cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Mike Reilly cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Jordan Zumwalt cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Dustin Vaughan cut
San Francisco 49ers Erik Pears cut
San Francisco 49ers Busta Anderson cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Major Wright cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Martin Ifedi cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Storm Johnson cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Ishmaa'ily Kitchen cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kimario McFadden cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jacob Schum cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Tevin Westbrook cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Jeremiah George cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Taylor Fallin cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Andre Davis cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Daniel Davie cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Travis Britz cut
Tennessee Titans Lamarcus Brutus cut
Tennessee Titans William Campbell cut
Tennessee Titans Donte Foster cut
Tennessee Titans Amarlo Herrera cut
Tennessee Titans Reece Horn cut
Tennessee Titans Andy Gallik cut
Tennessee Titans Tyler Patmon cut
Tennessee Titans Ropati Pitoitua cut
Tennessee Titans Nick Ritcher cut
Tennessee Titans Mike Smith cut
Tennessee Titans Blidi Wreh-Wilson cut
Tennessee Titans Deiontrez Mount cut

SATURDAY, AUGUST 27, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Atlanta Falcons Jordan Leslie cut
Atlanta Falcons Sergio Brown cut
Atlanta Falcons Brandon Williams cut
Atlanta Falcons Ryan White cut
Atlanta Falcons Sean Renfree cut
Atlanta Falcons Ivan McLennan cut
Atlanta Falcons Arthur Lynch cut
Atlanta Falcons Michael Huey cut
Atlanta Falcons Gus Johnson cut
Atlanta Falcons David Glidden cut
Atlanta Falcons Efe Obada cut
Atlanta Falcons Will Ratelle cut
Atlanta Falcons Jordan Sefon cut
Atlanta Falcons Jordan Walsh cut
Kansas City Chiefs Kenneth Acker traded from 49ers, for undisclosed draft pick
Los Angeles Rams Tavon Austin re-signed, Four-year extension (through 2021)
Miami Dolphins Vinston Painter cut
Miami Dolphins Al Louis-Jean cut
Miami Dolphins Marshall Koehn cut
Miami Dolphins Gabe Hughes cut
Miami Dolphins Matt Hazel cut
Miami Dolphins Ryan DiSalvo cut
Miami Dolphins A.J. Cruz cut
Miami Dolphins Ruben Carter cut
Miami Dolphins Akil Blount cut
Miami Dolphins Brandon Shippen cut
Miami Dolphins Brandon Harris cut
New England Patriots Frank Kearse on IR, right hand
San Francisco 49ers Eric Rogers on IR, torn ACL
San Francisco 49ers Cleveland Wallace III cut
San Francisco 49ers Jerome Simpson cut
San Francisco 49ers Darren Lake cut
San Francisco 49ers Blake Muir cut
San Francisco 49ers Wynton McManis cut
San Francisco 49ers John Lunsford cut
San Francisco 49ers Kendall Gaskins cut
San Francisco 49ers DiAndre Campbell cut
San Francisco 49ers Ian Silberman cut
Washington Redskins Shiro Davis cut
Washington Redskins Al Bond cut
Washington Redskins Kelsey Young cut
Washington Redskins Jarvis Turner cut
Washington Redskins Dez Stewart cut
Washington Redskins Valdez Showers cut
Washington Redskins Willie Jefferson cut
Washington Redskins Cody Booth cut
Washington Redskins Ejiro Ederaine cut
Washington Redskins Jeremy Harris cut

FRIDAY, AUGUST 26, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Indianapolis Colts Kevin Graf cut
Indianapolis Colts Kevin Graf off IR, leg
San Diego Chargers Tyler Marcordes on IR, undisclosed
THURSDAY, AUGUST 25, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Detroit Lions Stevan Ridley cut
Kansas City Chiefs Stevie Brown cut
Kansas City Chiefs Mike Williams cut
New England Patriots Barkevious Mingo traded from Browns, for a 2017 5th-round draft pick
San Diego Chargers Bruce Johnson signed from Eagles

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 24, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Baltimore Ravens Sam Brown cut
Baltimore Ravens Sam Brown off IR, undisclosed
Dallas Cowboys Jared Smith on IR, undisclosed
Jacksonville Jaguars Jonas Gray off IR, quadriceps
Jacksonville Jaguars Jonas Gray cut
New England Patriots Nate Washington cut
Philadelphia Eagles Hunter Sharp cut
San Diego Chargers Rico Richardson off IR, undisclosed
San Diego Chargers Damion Square suspended, 4 games (NFL Substance Abuse Policy)
San Diego Chargers Rico Richardson cut
San Francisco 49ers Jered Bell on IR, undisclosed
Tennessee Titans Craig Stevens retired
Washington Redskins Bryan Stork traded from Patriots, for conditional 7th-round pick in 2017

TUESDAY, AUGUST 23, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Cleveland Browns Dennis Parks on IR, undisclosed
Dallas Cowboys Dan Buchholz signed from Bears
Detroit Lions Brandon McGee signed from Cowboys
Detroit Lions Keith Lewis cut
Green Bay Packers Josh James cut
Houston Texans Alex Carrington cut
Indianapolis Colts Kevin Graf on IR, leg
Jacksonville Jaguars Cameron Marshall signed from Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars Max Wittek cut
Miami Dolphins Farrington Huguenin cut
Miami Dolphins Farrington Huguenin off IR, ankle
New England Patriots Donald Brown cut
New England Patriots E.J. Biggers cut
New York Giants Randy Bullock signed/unrest FA from Jets
New York Giants Tom Obarski cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Cole Manhart on IR, undisclosed
Pittsburgh Steelers Vince Williams re-signed, Three-year extension (through 2019)
San Francisco 49ers Ryan Whalen signed from Vikings, One-year contract (through 2016)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kelby Johnson on IR, calf

MONDAY, AUGUST 22, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Cleveland Browns Josh Boyce signed from Colts
Denver Broncos Sam Carlson cut
Detroit Lions Andre Caldwell off IR, hand
Detroit Lions Andre Caldwell cut
Green Bay Packers Matt Rotheram cut
Green Bay Packers Jesse Schmitt cut
Green Bay Packers Jesse Schmitt off IR, broken hand
Indianapolis Colts Andrew Opoku cut
Indianapolis Colts Marcus Leak cut
Indianapolis Colts Antonio Cromartie signed from Jets, One-year contract (through 2016)
Indianapolis Colts Justin Berger signed
New England Patriots V'Angelo Bentley cut
New England Patriots Cedric Thompson cut
New England Patriots Bear Pascoe cut
New Orleans Saints Keenan Lewis cut
Philadelphia Eagles Stephen Tulloch signed from Lions, One-year contract (through 2016)
Philadelphia Eagles Deontae Skinner cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Shahbaz Ahmed signed from Falcons
Pittsburgh Steelers Valerian Ume-Ezeoke on IR, undisclosed
San Diego Chargers Mike Lee signed from Eagles
San Diego Chargers Jeff Cumberland on IR, torn left Achilles
Seattle Seahawks Will Tukuafu re-signed/unrest FA
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cassanova McKinzy cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Kyler Kerbyson signed from Patriots

SUNDAY, AUGUST 21, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Denver Broncos Henry Melton signed/unrest FA from Buccaneers, One-year contract (through 2016)
Indianapolis Colts Michael Miller signed
Indianapolis Colts Donovan Williams cut
Indianapolis Colts Eric Herman signed from Ravens
Indianapolis Colts Emil Igwenagu cut
Indianapolis Colts Keith Lumpkin signed from Bills
Philadelphia Eagles Xavier Rush cut
Philadelphia Eagles Cedric O'Neal cut
Philadelphia Eagles T.J. Graham cut
Philadelphia Eagles Bruce Johnson cut

SATURDAY, AUGUST 20, 2016
TEAM PLAYER TRANSACTION
Atlanta Falcons Nick Rose cut
Atlanta Falcons Shayne Graham re-signed/unrest FA
Atlanta Falcons Sergio Brown signed from Jaguars
Buffalo Bills Karlos Williams cut
Cleveland Browns Jahwan Edwards signed from Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings Brad Sorensen signed from Chargers
Minnesota Vikings Kevin Monangai cut
New York Jets Bernard Pierce off IR, hamstring
New York Jets Bernard Pierce cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Christian Powell cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Roy Philon cut
Pittsburgh Steelers Roy Philon off IR, ankle
Pittsburgh Steelers Bryn Renner signed from Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers Antoine Everett signed from Buccaneers
Seattle Seahawks Jonathan Amosa cut
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Elijah Shumate off IR, hand, wrist
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Elijah Shumate cut

[StarDust Bum]

The fallout of Tony Romo's injury at sportsbooks

Everyone in the football and betting world thought Tony Romo had escaped disaster when it looked like the Dallas Cowboys veteran quarterback suffered a serious back injury.

But it turns out, he didn't.

Romo fractured a vertebrate in his back and could be out for six to 10 weeks, the Cowboys announced Saturday, leaving both the Cowboys and sportsbooks scrambling.

Most sportsbooks were quick to pull everything from Cowboys season win totals to Rookie of the Year odds off the board and more immediately Dallas' Week 1 line versus the New York Giants.

"Romo's value to a spread is 5-6 points, so now the Cowboys will be two to three-point underdogs at home versus the New York Giants. Prior to Week 3 of the preseason, they were 3.5-point favorites," Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu told Covers.

It was more of the same over at Sportsbook.ag.

"We had their season wins closed already, after leaving the game on Thursday we weren’t in any rush to reopen. Happy we didn’t," Pete Childs said. "That said, we’ve now closed NFC East, Week 1 and Rookie of the Year because Dak Prescott is now a legitimate contender in our opinion."

Thanks to Prescott's impressive preseason, the pulling of the Rookie of the Year odds may be the most interesting piece of fallout of the Romo injury, according to Childs.

"We’re actually exposed on Dak quite a bit, after his flawless performance in week 1 of the NFL Preseason, we went from 300-1 to 150-1. That didn’t stop the action and we kept writing action on him until getting down to 50-1, which was the number before closing the entire event with the news of Romo’s injury."

The betting on "NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year" reopened at Sportsbook.ag on Sunday morning with Dak Prescott listed at 7-1. The Cowboys reopened in NFC East division betting at +240 - second favorite behind the New York Giants at +200. The Cowboys' season win total has not reopened as of Sunday afternoon.

When it comes to Super Bowl 51 futures, the Cowboys were on the board at 22/1 to win, according to BookMaker.eu, and Cooley thinks they could climb as high as 30/1 depending on how long Romo is out of action.

Prescott, the former Mississippi State standout, has a preseason passer rating of 137.8, completing 39 of 50 passes for 454 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He also has two rushing TDs.

[StarDust Bum]

Raiders look unstoppable, Giants and Bears look disastrous: 13 preseason takeaways

If Week 3 is meant to be a dress rehearsal then the Giants and Bears are in trouble

It's almost too bad that the Raiders have to wait two weeks for the regular season to start because they're ready to roll now. There's a reason why the Raiders are a popular playoff pick this year and that reason is because Derek Carr slings fire every time he throws the ball.

The Raiders quarterback started off hot against Tennessee and never really cooled off during the five possessions he was on the field during the Raiders' 27-14 loss.
On the Raiders' second offensive play from scrimmage, Carr hit Michael Crabtree with a perfect over-the-shoulder pass on the sideline that went for a 41-yard gain. Carr didn't stop there. He also threw a sweet 29-yard touchdown pass to Amari Cooper.

Overall, five of Carr's 12 completions went for 14 or more yards in the game. That's the kind of big play capability that's going to make the Raiders offense scary this season. Carr played one possession into the third quarter and finished the game 12 of 18 for 169 yards and two touchdowns. Cooper had three catches for 52 yards, while Crabtree ended his night with just that one big catch.

Raiders fans probably don't need anything else to be excited about because their heads are probably close to exploding from optimism, but guess what, there's more. Let's talk about DeAndre Washington.

Although Latavius Murray is the Raiders starter, Washington got most of the snaps on Saturday and he made the most of them. The 2016 fifth-round pick made a bid for some serious playing time with his performance against the Titans.
Not only did Washington carry the ball eight times for 55 yards, but he also added a six-yard touchdown catch in the first quarter.

Anyway, Raiders fans better keep their fingers crossed that Carr never gets hurt because things got pretty ugly for Oakland's offense after he left the game. Matt McGloin and Connor Cook each threw an interception during their short time on the field in the second half.

Here are 12 more things to know about Saturday's preseason action:

2. The Bears' offense was embarrassingly bad

The Bears' starters (most of them, anyway) were simply embarrassed by the Chiefs in the first half. The ugly numbers: Chicago ran 18 plays before halftime en route to being out-possessed by the Chiefs, 21:54 to 8:06. Those 18 plays totaled 20 yards. That's an average of 1.11 yards per play. They were out-gained 239-20. They totaled -7 (yes, negative 7) passing yards in the first half, and only 27 rushing yards.

They allowed the Chiefs to go on three drives of 10 plays or more, all of which ended in scores. Had Andy Reid not elected to kick two field goals from inside the 10-yard line, they might have totaled more than 13 points, too.

The final indignity showed up on the last two plays of the first half. After Spencer Ware was penalized 15 years for unsportsmanlike conduct on his touchdown celebration, the Bears got the ball on a short field with six seconds left in the half. They attempt to run a quick-hitting pattern to gain a few extra yards, but Jay Cutler threw the ball into the ground, missing a wide-open receiver by a mile.
On the next play, he was strip-sacked by Dontari Poe. The fumbled was recovered for a loss of 10 yards.

The final: 23-7 Chiefs, but it wasn't really as close as the score.

3. The Chiefs do more with less

Kansas City was missing several starters on both sides of the ball ( Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, Josh Mauga, and center Mitch Morse, who was ruled out shortly before the game), but their starters really took it to the Bears. Alex Smith was his usual efficient (20 of 30) but not very explosive (6.0 yards per attempt) self, though he did lead the Chiefs on the aforementioned three scoring drives.

Spencer Ware found the end zone with a short plunge and had four catches. Jeremy Maclin had five and Travis Kelce had three. Andy Reid's crew mixed in some multi-tight end sets to get guys like Demetrius Harris and Ross Travis involved.

The defense may have looked even better than the offense. Derrick Johnson was flying all over the field, making plays in the backfield and near the line of scrimmage. Poe had a sack and another quarterback hit, and rookie Chris Jones practically took up residence behind the Bears' offensive line. Marcus Peters, Steven Nelson, and Daniel Sorenson got help from a couple Chicago drops, but they held their own in coverage for the most part.

4. Bears quarterback Connor Shaw carted off

Shaw led the Bears on their only scoring drive of the afternoon, but suffered what looked to be a fairly serious injury on Chicago's next possession. He was ultimately carted off the field after going 5 of 6 for 68 yards and a touchdown toss to Cameron
Meredith.

5. Ravens lose Ben Watson for the season

The Ravens signed Ben Watson to a two-year, $7 million deal this offseason after his 74-catch, 825-yard, six-touchdown year with the Saints in 2015, hoping he would provide another reliable target for Joe Flacco over the middle. On the first play of their third preseason game, Watson's 2016 campaign came to an end. He tore his Achilles on a non-contact play, and he's expected to be out for the year.

It's a pretty big blow for a Baltimore offense that already has Joe Flacco coming off a torn ACL and Steve Smith returning from a torn Achilles of his own.

6. Two Colts leave with injuries

The injury hits keep on coming across the league. Early on in the Colts-Eagles game, cornerback Darius Butler picked off Sam Bradford on a pass that Nelson Agholor dropped. He then exited the game with an ankle injury, dealing a blow to the Colts' defensive backfield. As if that weren't bad enough, what might be the weakest position group on Indy's team got even weaker when guard Jack Mewhort left the game with an injury of his own in the third quarter. How bad might that be for the Colts if his injury is serious?

A Colts blog felt compelled to tweet this at the end of the third quarter:

Luckily Andrew Luck is still upright.

7. Colts still have issues up front and over the middle

If, like me, you watched Colts-Eagles on NFL Game Pass with the Colts' broadcast feed, you no doubt heard the Indianapolis announcers repeatedly bemoan the fact that so much of Philadelphia's offensive production was coming on plays right up the middle. Sam Bradford's two touchdown tosses (to Dorial Green-Beckham and Trey Burton) were both wide to the left side of the field, but the majority of their work moving up and down the gridiron came right over the middle of the defense.

This is something that plagued the Colts last season. Per Football Outsiders, they ranked 21st in DVOA on passes to the deep middle of the field and 20th in passes to the short middle. Bradford took advantage of that weakness for much of the night. Additionally, Indy yielded over 5.5 yards per carry to the Philadelphia running game. Kenjon Barner, Ryan Mathews, and Byron Marshall each rushed for over 30 yards, and the Eagles have five separate runs of 9 yards or longer.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts couldn't get their run game going in any way whatsoever. Their two backs that got first-team snaps (Frank Gore and Josh Ferguson) combined for 10 yards on nine carries. Andrew Luck was sacked three times on his 22 drop-backs and again, Mewhort left the game with an injury.

The second- and third-team Colts lines held up better in front of Scott Tolzien and Stephen Morris, which allowed them to matriculate the ball down the field a bit. Morris, in particular, was able to make plays by moving around inside and outside the pocket, finding guys like Tevaun Smith and Chase Coffman for big-gainers.

8. Ravens get their studs back

Baltimore may have lost Watson (as mentioned above) and potentially running back Kenneth Dixon as well (sprained ankle), but it had to feel good to get Joe Flacco and Terrell Suggs back on the field. Flacco acquitted himself rather nicely, completing 11 of 16 passes for 94 yards, and that stat line would have looked even better if it weren't for an easy drop. His first drive, on which he went 4 of 6 for 48 yards, was a very nice way to come back.

Suggs finished with two tackles and didn't sack the quarterback, but looked healthy and affected the game more than the box score indicated. He was in the backfield a few times and near the ball down the field a whole bunch as well.

9. The Giants' first-team offense might not ever score again

A week after getting shutout 21-0 by the Bills, the Giants offense somehow managed to look even worse against the Jets on Saturday. They couldn't run the ball, they couldn't pass the ball and on one play in the first half, they couldn't even punt the ball.
Instead of looking better, offensive coordinator turned head coach Ben McAdoo has the Giants offense looking uglier. In the first half against the Jets, five of the Giants' seven offensive possessions ended with a punt, and the two that didn't end with a punt ended with a blocked punt and an interception.

The Giants only put up 47 yards in the first half.

Although Eli Manning put up decent numbers in the first half (8 of 13 for 52 yards), that was mostly because he was throwing short, safe passes. When Manning finally took a shot downfield against the Jets, it didn't go well: Darrelle Revis picked him off.

Manning finished the game 10 of 15 for 65 yards and led the Giants to zero of their 21 points in the 21-20 win.

You can't really blame Manning for his atrocious showing, but you can blame the Giants' offensive line. They couldn't protect Manning, they couldn't open up holes for their running backs, and well, they really couldn't do anything right.

The only good that came out of Friday's loss was the return of Victor Cruz. The receiver was on the field against the Jets, marking the first time since Oct. 12, 2014 (685 days) that he played in a game. Cruz didn't do much, but that wasn't a big deal because no one expects you to do much after taking 685 days off. The receiver caught one pass for 4 yards.

The Giants now have two weeks to fix all the kinks in their offense, which really means they have two weeks to teach everyone on their offensive line how to block.
The one person who looks like he's actually ready for the regular season to start is punter Brad Wing. Wing averaged 51 yards a punt on eight kicks against the Jets.
Oh, and don't let the 21-20 Giants win fool you, the score was 7-0 Jets when the starters left the game.

10. Matt Forte finally makes his Jets debut, but let's talk about Ryan Fitzpatrick

If the Jets offense is going to be any good in 2016, its going to need to have a solid running game, which is why the team brought in Matt Forte in March. Five months after signing with the Jets, Forte finally made his debut with the team during Saturday night's game with the Jets.

It wasn't a spectacular debut, or even average, but Forte still did enough to make you think he might be able to carry the team's offense this season. In less than two quarters of action, Forte touched the ball 12 times and totaled 37 yards (10 carries for 28 yards, two catches for 9 yards). Those aren't great numbers, but they do indicate that coach Todd Bowles is likely going to let Forte be a workhorse.

The Forte experiment better work out for the Jets offense because if it doesn't, they're going to be in trouble because Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't the type of quarterback who can carry a team. Against the Giants on Saturday, Fitzpatrick played exactly like you'd expect him to.

For one, he turned the ball over in Giants' territory.

Two: He was overthrowing receivers by 10 feet.

Of course, the best part of Fitzpatrick is that even when he's bad, you still get one or two Fitzmagic plays per game and that happened against the Giants.
Three plays after Revis' second quarter interception, Fitzpatrick hit Eric Decker with a perfect 22-yard touchdown pass.

The worst part for Fitzpatrick is that he might've been the worst quarterback in the game for the Jets. OK, he wasn't as bad as Bryce Petty, who threw a pick-six in the fourth quarter, but Fitzy was arguably worse than Geno Smith and Christian Hackenberg.

Yes. Christian Hackenberg.

The beleaguered rookie went 6 of 16 for 105 yards and a touchdown. The second-round pick also threw an interception.

11. The Titans' offense looks unstoppable

When Titans coach Mike Mularkey said this his team was going to run an "exotic smash mouth" offense this season, he wasn't kidding. I'm still not 100 percent sure what "exotic smash mouth" offense is, but I think I saw it on display against the Raiders on Saturday.

You want smash mouth? Try stopping Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry.
The two running backs combined for a total of 89 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries against the Raiders. Here's what happened when the Raiders try to arm-tackle Henry.

The exotic part of the Titans' "exotic smash mouth" also seems to be working fine.

First, we have an option play where Marcus Mariota pitched the ball 13 yards down field.

After catching the pitch, Harry Douglas tacked on 8 more yards to the run. In the box score, that goes down as a 13-yard gain for Mariota and an 8-yard gain for Douglas (instead of a 21-yard gain for one of them).

The other exotic part of the Titans' offense is that a washed up 35-year-old might end up doing big things for them this year. Andre Johnson racked up 65-yards on three catches against the Raiders, including the 38-yarder you see below.

Besides Johnson, the Titans also have Tajae Sharpe, who's starting to look like the best rookie receiver in the NFL. Sharpe has been making big plays all preseason and that continued against the Raiders when he caught a 60-yard pass, which turned out to be his only catch of the game.

The scary thing for the rest of the NFL is how comfortable Mariota looks when he's running this offense. Although the Raiders were playing a very vanilla defense, they still couldn't do anything to stop the Titans' offense, which was also pretty vanilla.
For the game, Mariota finished 9 of 16 for 170 yards.

12. Someone might've just won the Broncos' QB competition, but only by default

Technically, the Broncos' quarterback competition has to end at some point because someone has to start in Week 1, and it's looking more and more like that someone will be Trevor Siemian. During the most important preseason game of the year, Siemian took every snap in the first half, which almost certainly indicates that Gary Kubiak plans on moving forward with the 2015 seventh-round pick as his starting quarterback.
Mark Sanchez likely fumbled away any shot he had at starting when he turned the ball over twice in a 45-second span against the 49ers last week.

That left Siemian and Paxton Lynch to battle it out for the starting spot, and Siemian was definitely the better quarterback against the Rams, which isn't saying much because neither guy was that good. The Broncos' first four possessions all ended in an ugly fashion. With Siemian leading the way, the Broncos went punt, punt, turnover on downs, interception on their first four offensive possessions.

Kubiak didn't really seem to trust Siemian at first because the Broncos called six straight running plays to start the game. Siemian didn't get to throw his first pass until the Broncos' THIRD POSSESSION!

Although the second-year quarterback didn't do anything spectacular, he also didn't really do anything that would've cost him the job. Plus, he made one impressive throw in the game.

One impressive throw per game doesn't sound like a lot to most teams, but with the Broncos, you're lucky to even get that from your starting quarterback. Siemian finished 10 of 17 for 122 yards and a touchdown, along with one interception. Of this 122 yards, 43 of them came on that pass to Demaryius Thomas.

If Paxton Lynch had any shot of starting in Week 1, he blew it against the Rams. The Broncos went three-and-out on four of their first five possessions in the second half with Lynch running the show. That being said, Lynch did show some promise in the third quarter when he directed an 8-play, 41-yard touchdown drive. Sure, it wasn't a 91-yard scoring drive, but you have to start somewhere.

The guess here is that Siemian will be the Week 1 starter and Lynch will be the No. 2 quarterback when the Broncos open the season against the Panthers. Lynch might be starting by the end of September, but there's almost no way he'll be starting in the opener. It just wouldn't make any sense for Kubiak to feed him to the Lions/Panthers defense when he hasn't take any preseason game reps with the first team.

The good news for the Broncos is that, just like last year, they might not need much from their quarterback. The Broncos defense and running game both looked strong
against the Rams.


C.J. Anderson led the way on the ground with 11 carries for 50 yards, but that came at a cost because Anderson took a hard hit and had to get stitches on his ear.

Don't worry though, Broncos fans, Anderson said he wouldn't be missing any time.
Anyway, Ronnie Hillman also added five carries for 45 yards and a touchdown in the 17-9 win. Hillman and Anderson better be ready to go in Week 1 because they might combine for 75 rushes against the Panthers.

13. Jared Goff is going to be holding a clipboard in Week 1

If anyone was hoping to see Jared Goff start the Rams' opener, you can tuck hose hopes in and put them to bed now because it's definitely not going to happen. For the third time in three weeks, Goff was the second best Rams quarterback in the game.

Against the Broncos, Goff was thoroughly outplayed by Case Keenum. Keenum wasn't perfect, but he was efficient going up against the best defense in the NFL. During his four possessions on the field, Keenum led the Rams on two scoring drives, which both ended in field goals. Producing six points against the stingy Broncos defense is almost like producing 40 against an average NFL defense.

Keenum finished the game 8 of 12 for 77 yards. He also got a rude introduction to the Broncos defense.

As for Goff, he also got to run the Rams offense for four possessions, but he wasn't quite as successful as Keenum. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 draft went 4 of 12 for 45 yards. Most of the damage Goff did came just before halftime when he threw for 33 yards on a Rams' drive that ended with a 48-yard field goal by Greg Zuerlein.

If Goff learned one thing in this game, it's probably that he never wants to face the Broncos again. The rookie quarterback was sacked once and hit several times before being relieved by Sean Mannion in the third quarter.

As long as Goff is healthy enough to carry a clipboard, he'll be just fine for Week 1 because there's no way the Rams aren't going to start Keenum in their Monday night opener against the 49ers.

If you're wondering if anything happened with the non-quarterbacks on the Rams' roster, let me tell you about Terrence Magee. The second-year running back made the most of Jeff Fisher's decision to sit Todd Gurley. Magee ran for 78 yards on just three carries. Most of that came on a 73-yard run that's definitely worth watching.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL preseason set to end with usual thud

We’ve reached the final week of the NFL preseason, which is always shunned since it’s invariably the least riveting week of the year. The opener is always packed with excitement, while weeks 2 and 3 end up deciding position battles and roster spots.

This final week, which takes place entirely on Thursday night as opposed to being spread out over a few days, is also overshadowed by the start of the college football season, where an SEC opener between South Carolina and Vandy as well as Oregon State’s visit to Minnesota will almost certainly be more compelling than anything that goes down on the NFL gridiron.

Watching Tony Romo get cracked in the back by Seahawks DE Cliff Avril will give most every other coach pause about putting anyone of significance into the mix before the season opener, so handicapping this week’s action is entirely about determining roster depth and backing the second and third-string quarterbacks who will play.

Since we do have lines available and wagers will be made, here are a few angles to be aware of as we put the preseason to bed.

Wednesday

'Skins at Bucs: Indiana product Nate Sudfeld, one of many rookies seeing extensive action this week, will start and is expected to play all of this one for Washington. Tampa’s defense recorded eight sacks against Cleveland on Friday, the most in a preseason game since 2000. They'll likely feature Ryan Griffin, who they like enough to keep as the third-stringer. He played extensively at Tulane and was with the Saints for a few years trying to break in. This contest was moved up due to threat of severe weather.

Thursday

Jets at Eagles: Young projects Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg each had their moments this preseason, while Geno Smith was lustily booed and could be on the market, so it will be interesting to see how Todd Bowles rotates his QBs here. We know we won’t see No. 2 pick Carson Wentz, whose rib fracture hasn’t healed enough for him to participate, which means Chase Daniel and McLeod Bethel-Thompson will handle the bulk of this one as they try and close out the preseason a perfect 4-0.

Jaguars at Falcons: Jacksonville just played on Sunday night, rallying to beat Cincinnati, so Atlanta definitely has an edge in recovery time since they last worked on Thursday in Orlando, losing to Miami 17-6. With veterans Matt Schaub and Matt Simms looking to close out with a strong performance at the Georgia Dome, the Falcons are rightfully favored.

Titans at Dolphins: Miami is making its season home debut and has largely struggled despite a 2-1 record. With Matt Moore having locked up the No. 2 QB spot, Zac Dysert and rookie Brandon Doughty will entertain the handful of spectators who show up to the newly renamed Hard Rock Stadium. Tennessee failed to score an offensive touchdown with its backups on Saturday night, so the under could be worth a whirl since Alex Tanney will likely play the bulk of this one for the visitors.

Patriots at Giants: These teams have played the final game of the preseason every year since 2005, and Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin typically played low-scoring games, even producing a 6-3 result once. This will be Ben McAdoo’s first chance against the master and despite a 21-20 Snoopy Bowl win on Saturday night, his Giants backups have looked extremely shaky. New England is looking for its first perfect preseason since ’03 when it went on to win Super Bowl XXXVIII. It wouldn’t be surprising to see rookie Jacoby Brissett start and play the entire game here.

Bills at Lions: After having a game-winning TD against Washington nullified by offensive pass interference, Buffalo visits Detroit. Rookie Cardale Jones has a shoulder injury hindering him, which means E.J. Manuel might play the majority of this one. Detroit rookie Jake Rudock will likely get a long look.

Colts at Bengals: Indy’s offensive line issues cut Andrew Luck’s night short against Philadelphia, so he’ll be holding a clipboard. Stephen Morris has been very productive, so look for him to get the bulk of the work on the road in Cincinnati, likely squaring off against Keith Wenning and rookie Joe Licata.

Steelers at Panthers: Carolina’s Joe Webb led a pair of scoring drives against the Patriots at home, so he’ll be riding a little momentum into this one. Pittsburgh finally got its first win at New Orleans after being outscored 47-17 in its first two home games. Bruce Gradkowski has yet to play this preseason, which means late signee Bryn Renner will likely handle the bulk of the workload here.

Packers at Chiefs: Kansas City's Alex Smith would be on the short list for preseason MVP if there was such a thing given how efficient he’s been, so the Chiefs won’t look at good as they have with Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray and Kevin Hogan taking most of the snaps. Green Bay has allowed an average of 11 points per game through three preseason contests. Rookies Joe Callahan and Marquise Williams will work at QB for the Pack.

Ravens at Saints: New Orleans will try and avoid a winless preseason for the second consecutive year, but they got rocked 38-10 at Green Bay in this spot last year, which suggests Sean Payton won’t be losing too much sleep over this one. John Harbaugh, who has one of the highest preseason winning percentages among all active head coaches, will be looking to go 4-0.

Texans at Cowboys: Because Romo’s injury elevated rookie Dak Prescott into a starting role, snake-bitten Dallas will likely ride Kellen Moore and Jameill Showers here. Ironically, former Cowboys castoff Brandon Weeden should see a lot of time here as he’ll look to help Houston wrap up a perfect preseason. Starter Brock Osweiler and backup Tom Savage combined to post a 158.0 QB rating in Sunday’s 34-24 win over Arizona.

Bears at Browns: These two come in 0-3 and have largely looked terrible outside of Robert Griffin III showing some signs of life in his new digs. He won’t play here, so even by preseason Week 4 standards, this one may wind up unwatchable.

Rams at Vikings: Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer has made no secret of his preference to win every game his team plays and has improved to 11-1 in preseason action with this year’s 3-0 start. Top pick Jared Goff has had a terrible opening to his career and got banged up in Saturday’s 17-9 loss at Denver, so L.A.’s attack should be led by Sean Mannion and Dylan Thompson.

Broncos at Cardinals: The Denver defense has largely shined, but they could struggle here with so many final cuts likely to play the bulk of this one, depreciating the product. Carson Palmer has been terrible this preseason, but he’ll be watching backups Drew Stanton, Matt Barkley and Jake Coker here.

49ers at Chargers: The controversial Colin Kaepernick has stolen the spotlight here, so it will be intriguing to see how he’s treated by both the San Diego crowd and the opposing defense after his controversial stance on the national anthem. Rookie Mike Bercovici had a chance to steal a cover for San Diego at Minnesota last week but was picked off in the end zone, so we’ll see how he responds closing this one out.

Seahawks at Raiders: Oakland rookie Connor Cook will get a long look in front of the home fans, who barely saw him last week since he didn’t check in until the late stages of the fourth quarter. Seattle has seen what it wanted to out of rookie Trevone Boykin to settle on him as Russell Wilson’s backup, which means Jake Heaps will look to help the Seahawks close out on a winning note.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC Betting Preview
August 22, 2016


2015 Year In Review

Listed among the highlights on the 2015 NFC ledger, last year saw...

-- A team from the NFC South (Carolina) win its division for a third straight season, only to fold like a cheap lawn chair in Super Bowl 50.

-- The Chip Kelly love affair in Philadelphia end in sudden divorce.

-- Officiating reach new levels of incompetence on the final play of the Detroit Lions-Seattle Seahawks game when a loose ball batted illegally out of the end zone was ruled a fumble and a touchback for Seattle.

-- The Dallas Cowboys enamored with embattled domestic abuse artist Greg Hardy, only to come their their senses and eventually release him.

Falling Asleep At The Wheel

Rested teams in the NFC have performed at a poor rate the last two seasons, going just 15-26 SU and 14-27 ATS overall, including the post season.

They were particularly disturbing as dogs (4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS) and when playing in games off a loss (7-15 SU and 6-16 ATS), while dogs off a loss are just 2-10 SUATS.

Furthermore, NFC underdogs with rest off a loss are a pitiful 0-7 SUATS in non-division battles.

Forewarned is forearmed.

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2016 PLAYBOOK

NFC EAST PREVIEW

DALLAS
TEAM THEME: BACK FROM THE DEAD

Last year at the Westgate SUPERBOOK seminar in Las Vegas, I spoke highly of the Dallas Cowboys and their chances in 2015. In fact, I actually pegged them to make it to the Super Bowl. And, following season-opening victories over the Giants and the Eagles, things were looking good until Tony Romo’s collarbone was pinned to the carpet in Philadelphia. Suddenly, with Butch Cassidy out and the Sundance Kid (Dez Bryant) going under the knife with foot surgery, the Cowboys more closely resembled Annie Oakley and Calamity Jane. Romo was replaced by Brandon Weeden, who then gave way to Matt Cassel, and then finally on to Kellen Moore. Together, the terrible triumvirate combined to go an abysmal 1-12 thereafter as the Cowboys were eventually laid to rest.

A new season starts in 2016 and with it Jason Garrett is anxious to erase the memory of his only losing season as an NFL head coach, with the only Dallas team to lose seven games more than it did the previous year. This much we know for sure: based on the win-loss record of last year’s opponents, the Cowboys (along with the Lions) will face the 4th softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 121-143 (.458). With Romo and Bryant back to full health and operating behind the best offensive line in the NFL, Marc could be singing their praises once again in Vegas this August. Then again, for the Cowboys’ sake, perhaps he shouldn’t.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys are 1-10 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more points under Jason Garrett.

PLAY ON: vs. NY Giants (9/11)

NEW YORK GIANTS
TEAM THEME: STAND AND DELIVER

Like the good soldier that he is, commander-in-chief Tom Coughlin decided it was time to turn over the reins to heir apparent Ben McAdoo. The two-time Super Bowl winner, long vilified and lauded at the same time, suffered the misfortune of commanding the worst defense in the league last year. A $200M spend in free agency should help matters with DE Olivier Vernon, DT Damon Harrison and CB Janoris Jenkins leading the new charge. With a healthy Jason-Pierre-Paul, and No. 1 draft pick CB Eli Apple (Ohio State) in the fold, hopefully the dyke has been repaired.

Meanwhile, McAdoo – a former OC with the Packers – added WR Sterling Shepard (Oklahoma) to join Odell Beckham Jr. and unendingly injured Victor Cruz to the receiving corps. Should 6’6” TE Larry Donnell himself stay healthy, he provides QB Eli Manning a large go-to target in the red-zone. Manning rebounded from a horrendous 2013 season when he completed 63.1 percent of his passes for 4,410 yards, 30 TDs and 14 INTs and a 92.1 QB Rating in 2014. He then followed that up with 62.6% completions for 4,436 yards, 35 TDs and 14 INTS in 2015. With Manning and OC Mike Sullivan now on the same page, Big Blue’s offense should be able to stand and deliver in a wide-open NFC East division chase. Especially when you consider the Giants will face the 2nd softest schedule in 2016, with foes a combined 120-144 (.455) last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Giants are 16-0 ATS as dogs of 5 or more points when playing off a win.

PLAY ON: vs. Philadelphia (11/6)

PHILADELPHIA
TEAM THEME: SPRING CLEANING

Moving a lot slower these days without former head coach Chip Kelly, the Eagles are about to take on a different look in 2016. New head coach Doug Pederson will rely on offensive huddles and adjustments at the line of scrimmage, rather than sheer speed, to keep opposing defenses off-balance. “We're taking a better approach this year,” said OL Lane Johnson. "You go so fast for so long, there's only so much your body can do before ultimately it's going to fail you.” Time will tell whether Pederson's style is more effective, but players certainly seem pleased by the changes. Fatefully, RB DeMarco Murray, LB Kiko Alonoso and CB Byron Maxwell – all acquired last season – were traded in a house-cleaning immediately after Kelly’s departure.

As luck would have it, former Oregon RB Kenjon Barner could be the starting tailback for the Eagles this season, especially with his receiving skills serving him well in Pederson’s offense. In another head-scratching move, the Eagles mortgaged the future in trading up to acquire QB Carson Wentz with the 2nd pick in this year’s draft right after signing QB Sam Bradford to a $22M contract extension. In soap opera fashion, Bradford then proceeded to dig himself a hole with fans in Philly when he demanded a trade immediately after Wentz was attained. As long-time, iconic Philadelphia radio and television personality Howard Eskin said, “The more things change, the more they stay the same in Philadelphia.” Amen.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Eagles will face opponents off their Bye Week in Games 6, 7 and 8 this season.

PLAY ON: vs. Atlanta (11/13)

WASHINGTON
TEAM THEME: LIVING HIGH OFF THE HOG

On the heels of only its 2nd playoff appearance in eight years, Washington was surely the surprise team in the NFL last season. After winning a total of seven games the previous two years, the Hogs rode a 9-win campaign to the NFC East championship for the first time since 1999, largely on the arm of QB Kirk Cousins. So what does Cousins do for an encore? After running the last man (RG III) out of town, the pressure would appear to be off for Cousins. But is that a good thing? Captain Kirk led the league in completion percentage (69.8%) while breaking the record for most passing yards by a Redskins quarterback. His top target, TE Jordan Reed, also had a career year and was rewarded with a five-year, $50M extension.

Thus, in horse racing circles, the chance for a ‘bounce’ in 2016 looks strong. Should Cousins take a step backwards, the running game will likely be counted on, but the loss of former RB Alfred Morris certainly won’t help a unit that dipped under 100 yards rushing per game last season for the first time since 2010. The addition of Pro Bowl CB Josh Norman from Carolina bolsters a secondary that actually slipped last year. With Washington taking on only one winning team in its first seven contests – as well as facing only one winning team as a visitor in 2016 – the schedule is paved with good intentions. But so is the road to hell.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Redskins are 3-9 SUATS in their history versus AFC North opponents, including 0-6 ATS as favorites of more than 2 points.

PLAY ON: vs. Green Bay (11/20) - *KEY as a dog

NFC NORTH PREVIEW

CHICAGO
TEAM THEME: ONE OX, TWO OXEN - ONE FOX, TWO FOXEN

How does John Fox feel these days? After being unceremoniously dumped by Denver in 2014 after melding four playoff teams and a 49-22 overall win-loss record, he then sits back and watches the Broncos win Super Bowl 50. Talk about a pit at the bottom of your stomach. Fortunately for Fox, a veteran head coach who has taken seven teams to the playoffs throughout his NFL career, he quickly found employment in Chicago where he immediately assembled a star-studded coaching staff that helped improve the Bears’ numbers all around on both sides of the ball in 2014.

Unfortunately, a rash of injuries coupled with a peculiar 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS performance mark at home left the team just one game better (6-10) than they were the preceding season. Playing on the road, though, is where the silver Fox is at his best, going 29-13 SU and 30-12 ATS in his career, including 14-4 SUATS from Game Twelve out.

Meanwhile, much maligned QB Jay Cutler enters off a career-best 92.3 passer rating last season. How he performs this season without OC Adam Gase remains to be seen. Taking on the 2nd softest schedule in 2016 should help. In closing, remember this: in John Fox’s two other head coaching stops in the NFL, his teams improved from 16-18 in their first years to 27-10 in their second years. Beware of the Bears.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Bears head coach John Fox is 14-5 SU and 16-3 ATS on the division road off a SU win.

PLAY ON: at Minnesota (1/1) - *KEY Off a win

DETROIT
TEAM THEME: LIFE WITHOUT MEGATRON

After being looked upon as a quarterback guru throughout his coaching career in the NFL, Jim Caldwell has managed to assuage many of the Matthew Stafford bashers the past two seasons – despite the fact Stafford has been sacked 89 times during Caldwell’s tenure with the Lions. This year, however, Detroit faces life without Megatron as future Hall of Fame WR Calvin Johnson has decided to call it quits. And therein lies the problem. During his stellar nine-year career with Detroit, the six-time Pro Bowler twice led the league in receiving yards while establishing an all-time NFL record with 1,963 yards in a season. Johnson’s 731 receptions and 11,619 yards will be almost impossible to replace.

The acquisition of WR Marvin Jones (Cincinnati) will help but strangely the Lions shunned wide receivers in this year’s draft, a move that may come back to haunt them. Look for Detroit to rely more on the run in 2016 while taking pressure off Jones and his starting companion, Golden Tate. New OC Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford’s QB coach the past three seasons, will certainly be under the gun. Try as they might, the Lions managed to close the season on a positive note last year, winning six of their final eight games after a 1-7 start. That’s good news considering Detroit will take on the 3rd-softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 121-143 (.458) last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Detroit is 1-10 SU and 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus AFC South opponents, including 0-4 SUATS home.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Chicago (12/11)

GREEN BAY
TEAM THEME: BY THE BOOK

So why is it, you wonder, that the Packers seem to annually field one of the NFL’s deepest rosters? According to Bill Barnwell of ESPN.com, it’s because “they never lose players they want to keep and perennially replenish their roster with useful draft picks.” It’s a tried-and-true formula that has worked in Green Bay since GM Ted Thompson took over in 2005. The proof, as they say, is in the pudding and the Pack has suffered only one losing season since while making the playoffs each of the last seven years (also won at least 10 games in six of those seasons).

Last year we wrote that the offense was good. Real good. But unfortunately with the loss of star WR Jordy Nelson – QB Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target – right out of the gate, it was a tale of two seasons for the Packers. They started 6-0 and carried that perfect record into the Bye Week, where they proceeded to lose four of the next five. Back-to-back losses to end the season sent the Packers to Washington for the wild card round after failing to win the NFC North for the first time since 2010. This season, with Nelson back in the lineup, Green Bay will face the softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 118-144 (.450). With that, it’s conceivable the Packers could be favored in every game this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Aaron Rodgers is 15-3 SUATS in division games off a spread loss.

PLAY ON: at Minnesota (9/18) - *KEY as a dog

MINNESOTA
TEAM THEME: BRIDGE TO SUCCESS

QB Teddy Bridgewater broke into the NFL by completing 64.4% of his passes for 14 TDs in his rookie year with Minnesota in 2014. He upped the ante last season, completing 65.3% of his passes while tossing only nine interceptions. As a result, the Vikings captured their first division crown in six years. The job this year will be fending off former perennial champion Green Bay. To do so, Minny must secure things in the secondary as Mike Zimmer’s pass defenses have been super-soft, allowing 64 and 66% pass completions in his two seasons with the Vikes.

Last year’s No. 1 draft pick CB Trae Waynes and this year’s No. 2 selection CB Mackensie Alexander should go a long way toward mending the unit. On the other side of the ball, Minnesota’s offensive line has allowed 96 sacks in Zimmer’s tenure. For Bridgewater’s sake, those numbers certainly need to improve. We’re thinking the additions of OG Alex Boone (San Francisco) and OT Andre Smith (Cincinnati) will help immensely. After losing WR Mike Wallace to the Baltimore Ravens, Teddy will be ready for new WR Laquon Treadwell (Ole Miss), Minnesota’s No. 1 choice in this year’s draft. Many college football pundits feel Treadwell was the best receiver on the board. Now, if they can keep 31-year old RB Adrian Peterson – the NFL’s rushing leader last year – upright and switch-free, they could be playoff-bound once again in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vikings are 14-3 ATS in their last seventeen games in December.

PLAY AGAINST: at Chicago (10/31)

NFC SOUTH PREVIEW

ATLANTA
TEAM THEME: NOT-SO-MIGHTY QUINN

A 5-0 start by Atlanta last year looked promising under new head coach Dan Quinn as his hire from Seattle looked to be the catch of the season. Unfortunately, a 1-7 run occurred thereafter, resulting in a disappointing 8-8 record by season’s end. Through it all, the Dirty Birds managed to improve their defense by 4 points and 51 yards per game in 2015. The Falcons made a huge pickup when they inked Pro Bowl C Alex Mack. His transition is made smoother with OC Kyle Shanahan having served as his coach in Cleveland. They also cut aging 34-year old WR Roddy White, the team’s all-time leader in receptions and passing yards. In an attempt to fill White’s shoes, they acquired former Cincinnati wideout Mohammed Sanu.

Meanwhile, QB Matt Ryan suffered through a down year last campaign when he tossed 16 picks while being sacked 30 times (his 89.0 quarterback rating was his lowest since 2009). RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman battled injuries but were highly effective when they suited up. Regrettably, the Falcons will face the league’s most difficult schedule in 2016 with opponents a combined 153-120 (.560) last season. Thus, a quick start against three losing foes is mandatory, especially with last year’s two Super Bowl combatants, and Seattle, on deck thereafter. Ryan’s 8-0 SUATS career mark in home openers serves as the stepping-stone.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Teams who finished last, or tied for last, have won the NFC South 11 of the last 13 years the next season.

PLAY ON: at New Orleans (9/26) - *KEY

CAROLINA
TEAM THEME: NEWTON’S LAW

Carolina has been playing a high level of outstanding football the last year and a half. A quick glance at their stat-logs since mid-November of 2014 confirms the notion as they are 22-3 SU, while having outyarded 20 of their last 25 opponents in the process. Just to be clear, there is no one in the league that tops those numbers. And to help perpetuate the momentum, the Panthers actually face the easiest opponent’s Strength of Schedule (see chart on page 22) this season based on this year’s opponents’ Super Bowls odds per the SuperBook at the Westgate in Las Vegas. So why weren’t we first in line in Vegas when Jay Kornegay posted this year’s Super Bowl odds at the SuperBook?

Simple.

Aside from being a popular public team this season the Panthers, who will be favored in every game this season but one (at Seattle), will also carry the burden of ‘Super Bowl Loser’ with them from start to finish in 2016. And with QB Cam Newton capturing last season’s MVP award behind a career-best 99.2 passer rating, we’re applying plenty of repellent this season. Oh yea, for what it’s worth: in over 600 games, Super Bowl Losers have managed to beat the spread only 48% of the time overall the following season. In addition, only 4 Super Bowl Losers have managed to make it back to the big game the following season – and they went 0-4 SUATS in the big game. Ouch.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Panthers are 7-0 ATS at home versus .750 or greater opponents behind Cam Newton.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Atlanta (12/24)

NEW ORLEANS
TEAM THEME: REVOLVING DOOR

It was more of the same for the Saints in 2015. Good offense. Lousy defense. And with it came another 7-win season for the third time in the past four years. The declining defense led to DC Rob Ryan’s firing in mid-November but it was too little, too late at that point. Many of the defensive issues were addressed in the offseason when New Orleans signed LBs James Laurinaitis and Craig Robertson, to go along with NT Nick Fairley. Snagging Sheldon Rankins with the No. 1 draft pick made current DC, and former Oakland Raiders head coach, Dennis Allen a happy camper.

And speaking of past head coaches, the Saints signed former Miami Dolphins interim coach Dan Campbell as its tight ends coach. He will work with new TE Coby Fleener, a free agent from the Indianapolis Colts. Fleener replaces Ben Watson who bolted for Baltimore. 37-year old QB Drew Brees refuses to take a step backward as he threw for 5,365 yards while completing 66.4% of his passes to post a 95.8 QB Rating in 2015. If the Saints can stay alive until Thanksgiving, New Orleans will close out the campaign against only one team that owned a winning record last season in its final six contests. It could be a tall task, though, considering the Saints will face the 2nd most difficult schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 150-121 (.554).

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Saints are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS all-time versus winless AFC West opponents.

PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (10/16) - *KEY as a dog

TAMPA BAY
TEAM THEME: TOOL TIME

Last year Buccaneers GM Jason Licht said, “We’re not rebuilding… we’re re-tooling.” While it was easy to scoff at that statement, the fact of the matter is it appeared to be right on the money. Behind QB Jameis Winston, who starred in his rookie season, Tampa Bay tripled its win production when Winston cleared the air for over 4,000 yards and 22 TDs. Then, in a stunning announcement, the Bucs sent head coach Lovie Smith packing in favor of OC Dirk Koetter. The feeling in the Tampa camp was that if they didn’t elevate Koetter to head coach status, another team would. Koetter immediately brought ex-Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith in as defensive coordinator, and respected college football guru Todd Monken as his offensive coordinator.

The bottom line is after all the dust had settled, Tampa Bay made a major upgrade while getting younger in the process. The secondary got a makeover as well: CB Vernon Hargreaves was snapped up in the first round of the draft while Miami CB Brett Grimes was an excellent free agent pickup. DE Robert Ayers brings 9.5 sacks over from the Giants to pair with reliable DT Gerald McCoy. On the other side of the ball, RB Doug Martin got back on track with 1,400 rushing yards last season. Now with a powerful draft under the Bucs’ belt, it’s tool time in Tampa these days.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Despite just 6 wins, the Bucs finished in the Top 10 in overall offense and defense last season.

PLAY ON: at Carolina (10/10)

NFC WEST PREVIEW

ARIZONA
TEAM THEME: BIRDS OF A FEATHER

Last season marked the first time since 1985 the Cardinals have enjoyed the benefit of three consecutive winning seasons. That they have delighted in four winning seasons in a row only ONE TIME in their franchise history (1922-25) isn’t the point. The fact that they are under the direction of a head coach like Bruce Arians is. He won us over in 2014 when he guided the Cards to the playoffs despite being outgained a massive 64 YPG on the season – with a 3rd string quarterback! And then when we warned readers against backing his squad last year and he went out and obliterated 2014’s effort by 3 additional wins while improving the offense and the defense by 94 and 35 YPG respectively, it’s safe to say he has our full admiration.

To corroborate our belief, consider that Arians is 33-5 SU and 30-6-2 ATS as an NFL head coach versus sub .600 opponents – including 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS last year. Simply put, it means the man beats those he’s supposed to, thus putting his team into position to challenge for a playoff spot. While Arizona will be living out of a suitcase down the stretch this season, they open the year with home games in five of their first 7 contests. Owning the fewest sacks (36) of all playoff teams last season, the addition of DT Robert Nkemdiche made a ton of sense. And so too does backing the Redbirds in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Arizona is 34-0 SU in its last 34 games when leading after 3 Quarters.

PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (10/30)

LOS ANGELES
TEAM THEME: CALIFORNIA HERE WE COME... AND GO

After 21 seasons playing under the Arch in St. Louis, the Rams are headed back to Los Angeles where they last called home in 1994. The move comes at a cost, though, as the Rams will travel a total of 32,072 miles, which is more than the Browns, Bears, Packers and Ravens will travel combined in 2016 (30,948 miles). In fact, their one-way flight back from London to Los Angeles is more miles that the Steelers will travel the entire season (5,138 miles). L.A. is hoping star RB Todd Gurley and new golden boy QB Jared Goff can help lead them back to their glory days, but don’t look for that to happen anytime soon.

The team hasn’t had a winning season since 2003, while averaging just 5.3 victories per season over the last 12 years. The distraction of rumors of the franchise heading back west proved relevant when the Rams were outgained in each of their final 8 games over the course of the second half of the season last year. As a result, Jeff Fisher’s squad ended up as the only team in the loop that slipped in total yardage on both sides of the ball, despite somehow finding a way to somehow improve both SU and ATS on their record from 2014 to 2015. All in all, not good news for a team that will face the 4th most difficult schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 148-121 (.550).

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Rams are 36-59-1 SU since owner Stan Kroenke came aboard.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Tampa Bay (9/25) - *KEY

SAN FRANCISCO
TEAM THEME: FOOL’S GOLD

Don’t be fooled by Chip Kelly’s hire. There is a lot of work to be done in San Francisco and it won’t happen overnight. For a team filled with holes, and a franchise that went to the NFC title game every year from 2011-13, the last two years for the 49ers have been intolerable. In the end, a 5-win season last year was not enough to save Jim Tomsula’s one-and-done tenure in San Fran. Say what you may about Kelly, the truth of the matter is he was able to post a 26-21 winning record in Philly without the luxury of a top-line quarterback.

And it’s not like he’ll have one here, either, with much maligned Colin Kaepernick battling Blaine Gabbert for the right to run his high-octane offense this year. Little did Kelly realize when he took the job that the Niners, despite finishing in last place in the NFC West in 2015, would be taking on the 3rd most difficult schedule in the league this year, one that will likely find the Niners underdogs in every game they play in 2016. For Frisco to have any chance at turning up the tempo and succeeding with this roster, it will need RB Carlos Hyde to operate at peak efficiency – in hopes of giving an unsuspecting defense as many needed blows as possible from an offense that doesn’t figure to be on the field much at all.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 25-3 SU away versus either NFL division or college conference foes in his career. Or – The Niners are 10-1 ATS all-time as road dogs versus AFC East opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: at Chicago (12/4)

SEATTLE
TEAM THEME: READY TO RAIN

To their credit, after being Super Bowl Losers last season following Pete Carroll’s disastrous call in Super Bowl XLIX, the Seahawks managed to find their way back to the postseason – only to lose a hard-fought 7-point decision to the Panthers at Carolina. Surprisingly, it was one of just 26 times in 108 games in which Seattle has managed to gain 400 yards behind Carroll. And with it the Seahawks’ dominance in the NFC appears be eroding. Fear not, though: Seattle’s defense is still the best in the league, allowing the fewest points and second-fewest total yards in the loop last season. Losing LB Bruce Irvin is a big blow, as well as RB Marshawn Lynch and LT Russell Okung on offense.

Still, it’s QB Russell Wilson that is the keeper of the keys. Completing 68% percent of his passes for 34 TDs and 8 INTS last season, Wilson especially shines in underdog roles where he is 11-1-1 ATS in his career when taking points from sub .900 opposition. He’s also 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in his career versus Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. Interestingly, the Seahawks are 7-19 ATS all-time as favorites versus AFC East opponents. Given the fact that they will likely be favored in all but two of their games this season, it’s understandable why, beast or no beast, Seattle is a leading contender to make it back to the Super Bowl.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Seahawks have either led, or were within one score, in their last 88 games.

PLAY ON: vs. Carolina (12/4) - *KEY

[StarDust Bum]

AFC Betting Preview
August 21, 2016

Toe-to-Toe

Not so coincidentally, the AFC stands 151-173-1 SU and 152-160-13 ATS in non-conference clashes against the NFC the past five seasons.

They have gone 170-151 ‘Over’ in those games, including 104-80-3 ‘Over’ when playing as a dog.

In intra conference games – AFC versus AFC – over the teams off a SU underdog win have struggled to get back up the following game, going just 66-86-9 ATS. Inside those numbers is a paltry 1-7-1 ATS mark as double-digit dogs, and a dismal 2-10 SUATS mark if the team owns a win percentage of less than .250 on the season.

Passer Rating Differential

In a passer-friendly league these days, it’s important to know that you win when you have a quality quarterback, and you lose when you don’t.

According to a study I recently completed, over the last four years of the 40 teams in the NFL that ranked in the Top 10 in season ending offensive pass efficiency, 31 of them made the playoffs.

Of the 40 teams n the NFL that ranked in the Top 10 in season ending defensive pass efficiency, 29 of them make the playoffs.

And of the 14 teams that combined to finish the season ranked in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive pass efficiency, 13 of them found their way to the postseason.

The only one that did not: the 2015 New York Jets.

AFC EAST PREVIEW

BUFFALO
TEAM THEME: WAITING ON THE HERD

With nary a trip to the Super Bowl in 23 years, and no playoff appearance in 17 years – the longest drought in the NFL – it’s been a long time between drinks of postseason water for the thirsting Bills. And with it the call went out to Rex Ryan last season. A .500 campaign resulted, making 2016 a year of promise in Buffalo. For that to happen, the Bills will need to shore up a defense that underachieved last year. Thus, you knew it was a Rex Ryan draft this season with the additions of DE Shaq Lawson (Clemson), ILB Reggie Ragland (Alabama) and DT Adolphus Washington (Ohio State) with the first three picks of Buffalo’s draft this year. The re-tooling should go a long way toward shoring up a stop-unit that surprisingly declined a whopping 44 YPG under Ryan last season, afterwards releasing not-so-super Mario Williams.

Also gone from the offense is WR-KR Percy Harvin. It was the attack unit, though, that sparked the team. Led by superstar WR Sammy Watkins, the Bills offense improved 3 points and 44 YPG in 2015 while out-gaining 10 of its 16 opponents. In the process, QB Tyrod Taylor blossomed in his first year as a starter in the league, finishing with 20 TDs and 6 INTs in his 14 starts. Remember, in his first two years with the New York Jets, Ryan won 24 games, including four playoff victories. Buffalo fans can hardly wait.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Rex Ryan is 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS the last three years in non-division games off one win exact.

PLAY ON: vs. Jacksonville (11/27) - *KEY

MIAMI
TEAM THEME: TUNSILITIS

Tick. Tick. Tick. “And with the No. 13 pick of the 2016 NFL Draft the Miami Dolphins select Laremy Tunsil, offensive tackle from Mississippi,” proclaimed commissioner Roger Goodell. As 12 other teams went silent, Tunsil plummeted from the potential No. 1 pick of the draft to Miami where the Dolphins said gas mask be damned, it’s been 15 years since our last playoff win, we’ll take him. He better fortifies an OL that features two Pro Bowl linemen in C Mike Pouncey and T Branden Albert. Its music to the ears for QB Ryan Tannehill, who has been sacked a league-high 184 times the last four years. And to new head coach Adam Gase, former Denver Broncos OC and QB whisperer. Word from Dolphins camp is Gase is enamored with Tannehill’s talent and work ethic, as is new QB coach Clyde Christenson, who coached Andrew Luck the past four seasons in Indianapolis.

The drafting of gifted WR Leonte Carroo, a 3rd round pick from Rutgers, along with a finally healthy DeVante Parker (Miami’s top choice in last year’s draft) and continued development from Jarvis Landry (110 receptions last year) and Kenny Stills should give Tannehill plenty of weapons. The additions of DE Mario Williams, LB Kiko Alonso and S Byron Maxwell figures to shore up a defense led by stud DT Ndamukong Suh. Now, if Pro Bowl DE Cameron Wake bounces back, the Dolphin ‘D’ can become prominent once again.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Miami is 0-11 ATS in December since 2013.

PLAY AGAINST: at Baltimore 12/4 - *KEY

NEW ENGLAND
TEAM THEME: PATENT PENDING

After capturing its 7th straight AFC East title last season, and 12th in the last 13 years, it’s safe to say the Pats pretty much claim division copyright. Hoping not to let the patent expire, New England will be forced to start the season with Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady sidelined the first four games (read: Deflategate). Once Brady does suit up, he’ll be operating with a few new faces. WRs Chris Hogan (Buffalo) and Nate Washington (Houston) will look to replace Brandon LaFell, while TE Martellus Bennett (Chicago) joins Rob Gronkowski to form a lethal tight end tandem. Meanwhile, the Patriots traded DE Chandler Jones (12.5 sacks last season), released DT Dominique Easley (1st round pick in 2014) and lost DE Akiem Hick to free agency. They will look instead to newly acquired veteran DE Chris Long (Rams) and MLB Shea McClellin (Chicago) to fill the gap on defense.

However, the best offseason acquisition may not be a player but a coach. That occurred when Bill Belichick convinced OL guru Dante Scarnecchia to return after a two-year absence. A two-year drop of offensive production (from 429 YPG in 2013 to 371 last year) commanded his coming back. With three of the first four games of the year at Gillette Stadium – where New England is 52-5 during the regular season since 2008 – expect veteran RB LeGarrette Blount, running between the aforementioned tight end tandem, to carry a heavy load until Brady’s return.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Patriots are 0-6 ‘In The Stats’ the last six games with the Jets, averaging 271 YPG.

PLAY ON: vs. Denver (12/18) - *KEY as a dog

NEW YORK JETS
TEAM THEME: KNOCK, KNOCK

After enjoying the best offseason of all AFC teams in 2015, and arguably the entire league, the Jets parlayed that into a 10-win, six-game improvement last year. They then proceeded to make key free agent additions in RB Matt Forte, and OT Ryan Clady. Together, they will work with star WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker (each with 1,000 yards and double-digit TD receptions) to help form a potent offense behind returning QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (still unsigned at press time). It was Fitzpatrick’s game skills that keyed a 6-point and 44 yards per game improvement, nearly knocking on the playoff door last year in Todd Bowles’ first season on the sidelines with the Jets. Thus, his re-signing as a free agent with the team is crucial. Especially with the team having to tackle six consecutive .500 or better opponents to open the 2016 season. Fitzpatrick worked with OC Chan Gailey in Buffalo and they appear to be in the same page in New York.

Meanwhile, Bowles put his stamp on the defense down the stretch when his troops, behind a dominant secondary led by CBs Darrelle Revis and Marcus Williams (11 INTs combined), out-yarded each of its final six opponents, limiting them to 311 yards of offense in the process – while falling just short of the playoffs. It’s been six years since Rex Ryan last led Gang Green to the postseason. Bowles has what it takes to get them there this year, if he can overcome the ugly STAT YOU WILL LIKE below.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is 0-17 SU away vs. foes who ended the season with a winning record.

PLAY ON: at Buffalo (9/15) - *KEY

AFC NORTH PREVIEW

BALTIMORE
TEAM THEME: NOT-SO-SUPER JOE

After suffering a string of devastating injuries, as well as the Ravens’ first losing season under John Harbaugh last year, GM Ozzie Newsome went to work and injected youth on both sides of the ball in the draft with eight picks in the first four rounds. Add the fact that WR Breshard Perriman, last year’s No. 1 pick who missed his entire rookie season, takes the field for the first time, and suddenly a young crop of replacements is locked and loaded. In addition, the Ravens inked three big free agents in S Eric Weddle, WR Mike Wallace and TE Benjamin Watson. The return of star RB Justin Forsett, who broke his arm 10 games into the season, cannot be underestimated as the Black Birds’ running game slipped 30 RYPG last season.

And then there is QB Joe Flacco, who simply has not lived up to the hype or the big contract he received after Baltimore captured Super Bowl XVVII. Like Forsett and Steve Smith Jr. and Terrell Suggs, Flacco ended the 2015 season on the injured list. His Total QBR ranking the past three years is No. 24, having tossed more INTs and fewer TDs than he did in the three years prior to winning the Super Bowl MVP award. Thus, with the help of a super-soft opening schedule, the Ravens become a “mission team” in 2016 in more ways than one.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 15 of the Ravens’ 20 division losses under John Harbaugh have been by a TD or less, with over half of those (8) by a field goal or less.

PLAY ON: at Jacksonville (9/25) - *KEY

CINCINNATI
TEAM THEME: BARREN von DALTON

A 12-4 season last year had the Bengals looking like they were possibly in position to win their first playoff game in 25 years – the longest drought in the league – until a late-season injury to Andy Dalton derailed their chances. Unfortunately, the red baron owned the 2nd best passer rating in the league (107.4) when he went down for the year, and Cincy fell to the Steelers in a ‘wild’ 18-16 Wild Card loss. Still, the Bengals have now made the playoffs five straight seasons, while capturing the division title two of the last three years. And though they did hit a home run in this year’s draft, the loss of OC Hue Jackson, who worked wonders with Dalton, is a major cause for concern. They’re hoping the addition of WR Brandon LaFell (New England) and 2nd-round WR Tyler Boyd from Pittsburgh will help fill the holes left by the free agent losses of receivers Marvin Jones and Mohammed Sanu.

Despite opening the campaign against three salty teams that together averaged a dozen wins last season, based on the win-loss record of last year’s opponents, the Bengals (along with the Steelers) will face the 5th softest schedule in 2016 with foes a combined 125-142 (.468). Granted, a 13-3-1 ATS mark last season will be next to impossible to top, but with Dalton and his entire front line back in 2016, they’re more than ready to give that elusive playoff butterfly another try.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bengals are 11-3 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as a pick or dog of 3 or less points off a DD win under Marvin Lewis.

PLAY ON: at Pittsburgh (9/18)

CLEVELAND
TEAM THEME: BELIEVELAND

Though it seems the Browns have had more starting quarterbacks than wins the past 16 years, the truth is they’ve had only two winning seasons since returning to the NFL in 1999. But the hire of Hue Jackson as head coach should prove to be a stroke of genius. Masterful moves in this year’s draft awarded them the ‘top grade’ of all teams according to Pro Football Focus, while insuring repeated success in drafts to come with the trade of their No. 2 pick to Philadelphia. Granted, this year's roster more closely resembles that of an expansion team, and the front office consists largely of first-time NFL execs, but they were moves that desperately needed to happen in order to wipe away the many years of incompetence.

There’s no question the rebuild will take a few years to fully heal this fractured franchise, but in Jackson they are surely on the right path. The last five head coaches fired in the AFC North were Browns coaches, all of whom were canned after facing the Steelers in the final game of the season. Stopgap QB Robert Griffin III (the 25th starting signal-caller for this team since 1999) was signed in hopes of adding a jolt of stability behind center. And according to QB coach guru Terry Shea, “RG3 has never been healthier and is throwing the ball better than he ever has.” Yes, there are believers in Cleveland once again these days.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Browns were outscored by a total of 154 points last year.

PASS

PITTSBURGH
TEAM THEME: STAND UP AND BE COUNTED

Were it not for standby quarterbacks, the Steelers may likely have been home for the holidays last season. We’re talking opponent’s backups, by the way, not Pittsburgh’s. A quick perusal of last year’s schedule notes the Black Curtain faced a total of 6 reserve starting signal-callers during its final nine games of the season. To their credit, they went 5-1 in those contests, before finally bowing out to Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Ironically, the Steelers will face only one team in its final nine games after its Bye Week this campaign that actually owned a winning record last season.

The better news, though, is that despite the fact that WR Martavius Bryant is suspended for the season, star RB Le’Veon Bell will be playing, and not suspended, to start the season this year. His backup last year, DeAngelo Williams, rushed for over 900 yards and 11 TDs. Together they will form a lethal combination. Unfortunately, TE Heath Bell retired but his replacement, large Ladarius Green, likely figures to become a frequent target for QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben enters off the most productive season of his career, and benefited mightily from Mike Munchak’s OL schemes, but at age 34 one wonders how long he can keep the nuts and bolts in place. In addition, after finishing with the No. 21-ranked defense, the Steelers focused on that side of the ball in this year’s draft with their top three selections all protection players.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Roethlisberger is 20-3 SU in his NFL career games played in Ohio.

PLAY ON: vs. New England (10/23) - *KEY as a dog

AFC SOUTH PREVIEW

HOUSTON
TEAM THEME: 72 LARGE

Yep. The man can coach. After taking over a 2-win squad in 2014, Bill O’Brien has led the Texans to a pair of 9-win seasons... largely without much of a quarterback. After trying to make lemonade from lemon QBs Brian Hoyer, Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden and T.J.Yates, O’Brien gets his wish in 2016 – in a large way, we might add – when career Peyton Manning backup 6’8” Brock Osweiller and his mega contract enters his first full year as a starter in the NFL. And with it the big bird becomes the face of the franchise. Working in tandem with star WR DeAndre Hopkins, rookie WRs Will Fuller and Braxton Miller will operate with new RB Lamar Miller as the offense looks to make strides inside a rapidly improving division.

In order to repeat as AFC South champs, Houston will rely once again on a stout defense, led by sackmeister J.J. Watt (17.5 sacks last season – best in the NFL). Following its Bye Week last season, the Texans’ defense limited five foes to season-low yards. Any added effort from former No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney could make this unit special. In closing, though, keep these 2015 numbers in mind when evaluating the $72M spent for Osweiller – Hoyer: 158 of 262 for 60.3%, 1,847 passing yards with 12 TDs and 5 INTs. Osweiller: 156 of 251 for 62.2%, 1,821 passing yards with 9 TDs and 5 INTs.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Texans are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS as favorites under O’Brien, including 8-0 SUATS versus an opponent off a loss.

PLAY ON: vs. Indianapolis (10/16) - *KEY as a dog

INDIANAPOLIS
TEAM THEME: GOOD LUCK HORSESHOE

The ‘Greatest Shoe on Earth’ ended the season shoeless when star QB Andrew Luck went from bad-to-out after a myriad of injuries finally ended his season following the Denver game. Through it all the Colts concluded the season a league-worst 2-14 ITS (In The Stats), yet somehow managed 8 wins for the year. The first priority in this year’s draft became bolstering the offensive line, one that offered little-to-no resistance for opposing front sevens. Center Ryan Kelly and OT Le’Raven Clark became targeted commodities, while two other OL were tabbed later in the draft.

Another main concern this year is finding a running game as 33-year old Frank Gore averaged a career-worst 3.7 YPR last season. RB Robert Turbin was acquired as a free agent from the Dallas Cowboys, but it appears the ball will be in Gore’s hands to start the season. Meanwhile 43-year old PK Adam Vinatieri, the league’s oldest player, continued to thrive when he nailed 25 of 27 FGs. A soft getaway this season, with 4 of their first 5 games coming against foes that sported a losing record last year, helps. Perplexing, though, is Luck’s mediocre 21-21 SU and 22-20 ATS mark in games outside the division. While that number is far from bad, it pales in comparison with his 17-2 SU and 14-3-2 ATS mark inside the division. But make no mistake, this team needs it’s lucky horseshoe back and will go only as far as a healthy Luck can carry them. Remember, Luck is 16-4 SUATS in games off a loss in his NFL career, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS as a dog.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Colts are 13-1 SU and 12-1-1 ATS when playing on Thursdays in their franchise history.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Jacksonville (10/2)

JACKSONVILLE
TEAM THEME: OPERATION OVERHAUL

While a 5-11 season would normally be depressing for most teams, it was not the case for the Jaguars last year. For openers, 6 of the 11 losses were by a touchdown or less. Factor in that only Tom Brady threw more TD passes than QB Blake Bortles in 2015 and suddenly things go from bad to better. Sure, Bortles led the league in interceptions, and was sacked more than anyone in the league, but he also improved from 11 TDs in his rookie season to 35 TDs last year. A superlative draft coupled with the debut of last year’s No. 1 choice LB Dante Fowler – the No. 3 pick in last year’s draft lost for the year during rookie minicamp – suddenly puts a new spin on this troubled franchise.

There is no refuting the fact that the pass defense was atrocious, but FS Jalen Ramsey, this year’s top draft pick, quickly figures to be an impact player. In addition, free agent pickups Prince Amukamara and Tashaun Gipson figure to add instant relief to the secondary. If LB Myles Jack can contribute, then the defense quickly goes from shoddy to duteous. With 6 of it seven choices from a fabulous draft this season coming on the defensive side of the ball, the Jags’ stop-unit figures to make major gains. Wideouts Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns are a dynamite WR tandem, and the addition of RB Chris Ivory makes the offense legit. Look out AFC South. There are new kids on the block and they’re for real.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Jaguars will face only one opponent in their first seven games that owned a winning record last season.

PLAY AGAINST: at Indianapolis (1/1)

TENNESSEE
TEAM THEME: LISTEN TO THIS MULARKEY

Is head coach Mike Mularkey along for the ride, or can he head the Titans in the right direction? We’ll know sooner than later. Prized QB Marcus Mariota was inspiring in his debut last season, despite the firing of Ken Whisenhunt, the former head coach/quarterback whisperer. Tennessee once again struck gold in this year’s draft while also adding RB DeMarco Murray and WR Rishard Matthews to bolster its attack. In addition, they signed the best free agent center on the market in Ben Jones while adding OT Jack Conklin with its No. 1 pick in the draft. Along with 2014’s No. 1 selection OT Taylor Lewan, the OL is suddenly in good hands.

Long-time league defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau fits with the Titans like peanut butter with chocolate. His hire last year helped solidify a Tennessee defense that was in denial as Tennessee improved 31 YPG in yardage allowed under his lead. As we pointed out on these pages last year, the Tennessean.com said, “LeBeau is in the same union as Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy. He shows up in the middle of the night and delivers great defense while we’re sleeping.” His defenses have earned five No. 1 rankings and he owns two Super Bowl rings with the Steelers. It’s said he makes average players good, good players great, and great players elite. And we live by our words. Don’t look now but the AFC South is suddenly up for grabs.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: As an NFL head coach, Mularkey is 6-1 SUATS as a favorite of more than 3 points.

PLAY ON: vs. Cleveland (10/16)

AFC WEST PREVIEW

DENVER
TEAM THEME: DRAINED

Let’s tell it like it is. Since 1980, defending Super Bowl champions are losers the following season... at least to the spread. Collectively they’ve managed to beat the spread less than 49% of the time, well below the 54% level needed to show a profit. Worse, only 3 of them have repeated as champions. So where does that leave retired Peyton Manning’s Broncos this season? Much like a lost traveler in cannibal country: mainly in hot water. Not only must Denver soldier on without Manning but they are also without his backup Brock Osweiler, who took the money and ran off to Houston. The Broncos also lost DE Malik Jackson and LB Danny Trevathan from a defense that led the league in sacks (52) last season. A sub-par draft won’t supply many answers this year, either.

While they traded up to pluck QB Paxton Lynch in the first round, he figures to be holding the clipboard for Mark Sanchez for a while. Fourth-round RB Devontae Booker (Utah) may end up being a diamond in the rough while pushing C.J. Anderson for playing time. With an offense in transition, it appears the defense will once again be the key. It’s not often you find a team that won a Super Bowl yet was out-yarded in every playoff game in the process. Here’s hoping Von Miller and company keep their foot on the pedal. Otherwise, an orange flush could be in the offing.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Broncos are 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS away in division games the last five years.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oakland (11/6)

KANSAS CITY
TEAM THEME: ANDY DANGERFIELD

One would think that a team who flung 10 straight wins together to clinch a playoff spot would be a hot commodity the following year. It’s not necessarily so, though, with the Chiefs. They flew under the radar during most of a 10-game win skein last season as they were installed as favorites of more than a touchdown only two times throughout the winning blitz. And speaking of underrated, QB Alex Smith, whose 18 TDs and 6 INTs equated into a rock-solid 93.4 QB Rating in 2014, bettered those marks in 2015 when he posted a 95.4 QB Rating on 20 TDs and 7 INTs.

However, it’s head coach Andy Reid that is living high off the hog in Kansas City these days. With 32 wins in three seasons with the Chiefs, and sporting a 0-8 SUATS mark in postseason play dating back to 1994, KC finally managed to win a playoff game in stunning fashion last season when they blanked the Texans, 30-0, in Houston. So why is it Kansas City remains the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL? For openers, the loss of star LB Justin Houston, the defense’s best player who averaged more than 11 sacks per year in his five-year career, to a possible season-ending ACL injury in March could prove devastating. And OC Doug Pederson is now the Philadelphia Eagles head coach. So the heat is now back on Andy. Right where he wants it.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 17-0 SU with rest versus sub .888 opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Houston (9/18) - *KEY

OAKLAND
TEAM THEME: JUST MOVE, BABY

In going 7-9 in his first season with the Raiders last year, head coach Jack Del Rio managed to put a halt to TEN double-digit loss seasons over the previous eleven years. They weren’t finished there, though. During the offseason Oakland brought in free agent LB Bruce Irvin and signed CB Sean Smith and S Reggie Nelson, who tied for the lead in interceptions with Cincinnati last season. The Raiders also aced the draft in acquiring Karl Joseph of West Virginia, the best safety on the board. By the time the dust had settled, the Vegas, err, Oakland Raiders earned the best offseason grade of all 32 NFL teams from Pro Football Focus.

If Del Rio can manage a bi-polar schedule to his advantage, he could find his team back in the playoffs for the first time since 2003. That’s because the Raiders face the easiest slate in the league during the first half of the season, taking on only one foe with a winning record while the other seven owned a 38-74 mark combined last year. The second half of the itinerary is another matter when Oakland faces only one opponent that sported a losing record last year, with the other seven logging a 75-37 collective win-loss record. And amazingly, as a result CG Technology at the M Resort installed the Raiders as dogs in only 4 games this season. Coupled with 3 of their first 4 games in Eastern Time zones, and one of its home games in Mexico City, Oakland's schedule will be challenging. With a franchise QB in Derek Carr, a superstar WR in Amari Cooper and arguably the best LB in the league in Khalil Mack anchoring the team, this team is hoping it doesn’t crap out this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Raiders are 1-12 SUATS vs. foes off a pair of losses by 7 or more points each.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Baltimore (10/2)

SAN DIEGO
TEAM THEME: RIVERS’ EDGE

After taking the gas in every division game last season – the only team in the league to do so – the Chargers basically played two different halves in the season. During their first eight games, they managed to win the stats 7 times – while claiming just two wins for their effort. As a result, the white flag went up as San Diego went 2-6 ITS (In The Stats) while finishing with their lowest win total since 2003. Making matters worse, the Bolts took a major hit during the offseason, losing star S Eric Weddle, WR Malcom Floyd, and TE Ladaruis Green, all to free agency.

The big news on offense was the signing of OC Ken Whisenhunt, whose lone season with QB Philip Rivers and the Chargers in 2013 concluded with a career year for Rivers when San Diego finished 5th in the league in total offense after having been 31st the year prior. It’s safe to say that at 34 years old, Rivers needs Whisenhunt at this stage of his career like Sonny needed Cher. Sure, Rivers is 32-12 SU in December throughout his NFL career, but even that record took a hit (1-3) last year. New target Travis Benjamin (Cleveland) figures to earn his keep, while the Chargers look to get one more upright year from creaky, 35-year old TE Antonio Gates. Should top receiver Keenan Allen bounce back from a season-ending injury last year, improvement looks to be in the offing.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: San Diego is 10-1 ATS as a road dog of more than 4 points under Mike McCoy.

PLAY ON: vs. Oakland (10/9) - *KEY +4.5 or more points