The Bum's Previewing College Football 2016 !

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2016 Preseason All-ACC Team
July 27, 2016

The 2016 preseason all-Atlantic Coast Conference team, announced Wednesday by the league and determined by a vote of 191 media members at the conference's media days last week


OFFENSE

WR-Artavis Scott, jr., Clemson

WR-Isaiah Ford, jr., Virginia Tech

WR-Travis Rudolph, jr. Florida State

TE-Jordan Leggett, sr., Clemson

OT-Roderick Johnson, jr., Florida State

OT-Mitch Hyatt, soph., Clemson

OG-Dorian Johnson, sr., Pitt

OG-Tyrone Crowder, jr., Clemson

C-Jay Guillermo, sr., Clemson

QB-Deshaun Watson, jr., Clemson

RB-Dalvin Cook, jr., Florida State

RB-Elijah Hood, jr., North Carolina

DEFENSE

DE-DeMarcus Walker, sr., Florida State

DE-Ejuan Price, sr., Pitt

DT-Carlos Watkins, sr., Clemson

DT-DeAngelo Brown, sr., Louisville

LB-Ben Boulware, sr., Clemson

LB-Keith Kelsey, sr., Louisville

LB-Devonte Fields, sr., Louisville

CB-Cordrea Tankersley, sr., Clemson

CB-Des Lawrence, sr., North Carolina

S-Derwin James, soph., Florida State

S-Quin Blanding, jr., Virginia

SPECIAL TEAMS

K-Greg Huegel, soph., Clemson

P-Justin Vogel, sr., Miami

Spec.-Ryan Switzer, sr., North Carolina

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Head Coaching Changes
July 27, 2016

Football head coaches get all the glory, but top assistants can be extremely important in a team's success or failure. Offensive and defensive coordinators have great influence on game plans and a unit's effectiveness. Gus Malzahn was the offensive coordinator when Auburn won the national title and nearly pulled it off in 2013 as head coach of the Tigers. Notre Dame overachieved and made a bowl the last five seasons under Coach Brian Kelly, making the title game in 2013, while Urban Meyer has taken Ohio State to another level.

Assistants are often the NFL star head coaches of tomorrow, as well. Bill Parcells lost one of his top assistants, Sean Payton, who went to New Orleans and helped lead the Saints Super Bowl title turnaround. Another Parcells assistant, Bill Belichick, has done pretty well himself.

Competent football assistants can be huge assets. Buddy Ryan was the principle architect of the Bears' 46 defense that led the way to the 1986 Super Bowl. He left the team after that victory and the Bears were never as dominant defensively. Let's look at some key coaching changes in the college ranks.

Illinois: Lovie Smith leaves the NFL for the college ranks, trying to rebuild a 5-7 Illini team. He inherits a boatload of veterans with 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense. He won't have to rebuild the offense, either, as senior QB Wes Lunt (14 TDs, 6 INTs, 2,761 yards passing) returns. On the other hand, the Illini ranked last in the Big Ten in rushing (129.3 ypg) and had a league-low 13 rushing TDs in 2015.

Lovie's specialty is defense and he inherits a team that allowed just 23.3 ppg, but they lost six of their top seven tacklers and the secondary loses two key starters. He has plenty of work to do on a team that is on a 6-26 Big 10 run.

Miami: Head coach Al Golden was ousted, paving the way for longtime Georgia coach Mark Richt to step in. Why the Canes? Richt is an alum and a former quarterback at the school under Howard Schnellenberger. He knows how to recruit SEC talent in the deep south, another big plus.

The biggest plus of all is the offense, with QB Brad Kaaya back along with almost all the key players around him. Getting Florida State and North Carolina at home is a gift for the new coach -- as is not playing Clemson.

South Carolina: It's hard to believe the Gamecocks' offense was so dismal last year (21.9 ppg) under Steve Spurrier. The Old Ball Coach is out and Will Muschamp steps in. He has a defensive reputation and that will be put to the test on a defense that surrendered 27.5 points and 430 yards per contest.

New co-offensive coordinators Bryan McClendon (Georgia assistant) and Kurt Roper are in, the latter for ran the 2014 Cleveland Browns -- which isn't exactly something to boast about. They will run a spread offense on paper, but have untested QBs and only two offensive lineman back. Hope their contracts run more than one year!

Syracuse: You won't recognize the Orange on offense! New head coach Dino Babers ran a Baylor-style spread attack while at Bowling Green. BG won 10 games last season scoring 591 points, the most in the MAC, with QB Matt Johnson throwing 46 TDs with only 8 picks. And their top two running backs averaged 5.8 and 5.7 yards per carry. The new coach inherits a good QB, though, in Eric Dungey, so this offense may be a little ahead of schedule.

Iowa State: The struggling Cyclones bring in Matt Campbell, a hot young coach from Toledo (who beat Iowa State and Arkansas last year). Campbell inherits a lot of talent on offense in Junior QB Joel Lanning (10 TDs, 4 picks, 1,247 yards) and sophomore RB Mike Warren (1,339 yards, 5.9 ypc), who was great as a freshman. Throw in junior WRs Allen Lazard (56 catches, 808 yds) and Trever Ryen and the Cyclones should be able to score points. Stopping the opposition, however, has been very difficult for Iowa State the last few years, despite a 14-9-1 run under the total.

Virginia: The Cavs got a big-name hire in Bronco Mendenhall. In his 11 seasons he went 99-42, and led the Cougars to two Mountain West titles before the school became an Independent in 2011. His first step will be to cut down turnover-prone QB Matt Johns, who had 20 TDs, 17 picks. Mendenhall loves a power ground attack and will the O-line is loaded with depth and experience, RB Taquan Mizzell is more about speed than physicality.

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2016 Pac-12 Preview
August 1, 2016

Pac-12 Conference Football Betting Preview

Quarterback Checklist

Like most football conferences, the Pac-12 is a quarterback driven league. And 2016 will be no different, with UCLA’s Josh Rosen and Washington State’s Luke Falk leading the charge.

In their first years as starters at the FBS level, Rosen tossed for 3,669 yards and 23 TDs as a true freshman, while Falk annihilated opposing defenses when he threw for 4,561 yards as 38 TDs, completing over 69% of his passes.

And speaking of first year performers, Washington’s Jake Browning started 12 games as a freshman last season when he aired it out for 2,955 yards and 16 TDs.

Returning quarterbacks looking to replicate stirring numbers they put up in 2014 include Arizona’s Anu Soloman (3,793 yards and 28 TDs in ’14) and Colorado’s Sefo Liufau (3,200 yards and 28 TD’s in ’14).

Keep a vigilant eye on newcomers Davis Webb of California, a graduate transfer from Texas Tech where he tossed for 5,557 yards and 46 strikes, and Dakota Prukop of Oregon, an FCS transfer who accounted for nearly 4,000 yards and 39 overall scores at Montana State.

By the time the final dust settles backers of these teams will have air miles aplenty.

Draft Dodgers

Thirty-two Pac-12 players were selected in this year’s NFL draft, bring the total to 133 alums being selected in the draft over the past four years – 4th best of all Power 5 conferences.

However, the he 32 Pac-12 selections pales in comparison with the SEC as the king of all conferences had 51 players selected this year and now stands at 217 total players taken since 2013.

The ACC comes in at No.2 overall since 2013 with 176, followed by the Big Ten at 134 and the Big 12 bring up the rear with 96.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

2016 PAC-12 NORTH PREVIEW

CALIFORNIA (Offense – 5/4, Defense – 5/3, 65 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NEW-FANGLED BEARS

An 8-win season, led by new Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff, brought Sonny Dykes his first winning season in Berkeley last year. While great on paper, Cal actually underachieved as they were expected to challenge for the Pac-12 North championship. Instead they finished 4th at 4-5. With Goff and OC Tony Franklin gone, Jake Spavital takes over the keys to the offense. Spavital produced stellar quarterback recruits at Texas A&M as the Aggies’ OC. A mind-boggling 18 receivers were on the roster for the spring game, with Melquise Stovall leading the way with 128 yards and two touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, Cal improved 58 YPG defensively last season, but were ranked No. 109 overall. The Bears had better not go into early hibernation as they close out the campaign against six straight bowl teams.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Under Dykes, the Bears are 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS versus Oregon, Stanford, UCLA and USC, losing by an average of nearly 21 PPG.

PASS


OREGON (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 4/1, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NOT SO DUCKY

It’s hard to fathom but last year’s 9-4 season tied for the program’s poorest showing since 2007. Making matters worse? Try a collapse of monumental proportions in January’s Alamo Bowl. The 47-41 loss in triple overtime came after blowing a 31-0 halftime lead to TCU, and leaves them scratching their noggins heading into the 2016 campaign. For the 2nd year in a row, the Ducks will start a new quarterback – another FCS transfer – in Montana State import Dakota Prukop, who flourished operating the same Chip Kelly system that Oregon runs. Meanwhile, new DC Brady Hoke will look to plug a defense that allowed 37.5 PPG in 2015. On the slippery slope they now ride, the Quack Attack looks to be on thin ice.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Ducks owned the 4th worst overall defense (485.3 YPG) of all Power 5 teams last season.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Stanford (11/12)


OREGON STATE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 6/1, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GNAWED OFF

When Gary Andersen shocked the world and opted to leave Wisconsin, little did he realize the cupboard in Corvallis had been cleared out. After a 2-1 opening, the Beavers were chewed up and spit out like a tin of Skoal Bandits as they dropped 9 straight games to conclude the season. Through it all, the Beavers were beaten to a pulp: outscored and outyarded by conference foes by 24.6 PPG and 208 YPG, worst in the Pac-12 last season. Making matters even grimmer, two QBs and the team’s top LB have transferred out. Thus, Oregon State will lean heavily on former Utah State QB Darell Garretson, who was recruited by Andersen when he was the head coach of the Aggies.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Beavers will face 10 opponents that played in bowl games last season, including each of their final 8 games.

PLAY ON: at Colorado (10/1)


STANFORD (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 6/1, 71 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: SENIOR MOMENT

Coming off their third Pac-12 title in 4 years – where they bested conference foes by 16.8 PPG and 69 YPG – the Cardinal is indeed the loop’s current kingpin. The return of Heisman Trophy runner-up RB Christian McCaffrey will help to maintain the status quo. But he’ll need to acquaint himself with a new cast of playmates as a bevy of seniors have departed, including 4-year starting QB Kevin Hogan and a trio of offensive linemen. The good news for McCaffrey is FB Daniel Marx is a short yardage specialist in the Cardinal’s “ogre” package. “This is a guy who will be playing on Sundays,” insists HC David Shaw. And then there’s the defense, one that has racked up a whopping 124 sacks the past 3 seasons. The problem is a majority of those came from players now playing on Sundays. With their first 6 games coming against bowlers, Shaw will have to earn his stripes in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Cardinal seniors made a total of 188 starts last season, tied for the most in the nation with Akron.

PLAY AGAINST: at UCLA (9/24)


WASHINGTON (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 7/3, 51 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: YOUNG AS HELL AND BACK FOR MORE

The Huskies went with a youth movement on offense last season and as a result, head coach Chris Petersen should enjoy plenty of dividends in 2016. Freshman QB Jake Browning started 12 of 13 games last year, finishing with 2,955 yards and 16 TDs. Freshman RB Myles Gaskin rushed for 1,302 yards while finding the end zone 14 times – despite starting only six games. In addition, 4 starting O-linemen return. On the other side of the ball, the secondary had more interceptions than TD passes allowed in 2015. It doesn’t hurt that Petersen has averaged 10.7 wins per season as a head coach, 3rd highest of all active coaches. With 5 of the Huskies’ first 7 games at home this season, the Iditarod is on as U-Dub is poised for a breakout season in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Huskies’ underclassmen made a total of 156 starts last season, the most of any team in the nation.

PLAY ON: at Utah (10/29)


WASHINGTON STATE (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 6/1, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: AIRBORNE AGAIN

After garnering 10 bowl bids in 10 seasons at Texas Tech, Mike Leach brought his air-raid attack to Pullman where after 3 wobbly years the Cougars finally clawed their way to an 8-win bowl season last year. As an assistant under Hal Mumme, the tandem set 196 school records in 7 years. He also directed an Oklahoma offense that went from 101st in the nation to 11th in just one year under Bob Stoops. Yes, the man can coach. And this year’s Cougars squad is hands-down his best at WSU. The top passing team in the land last year returns QB Luke Falk (38 TDs and 8 INTs) and just about the entire wide receiving corps, including Gabe Marks who had 104 receptions for 1,192 yards and 15 TD’s. Yikes.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cougars were the No. 3 ranked team in the nation in red-zone offense (.925) last season.

PLAY ON: at Stanford (10/8) - *KEY


2016 PAC-12 SOUTH PREVIEW

ARIZONA (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 7/2, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ANU YEAR

After winning 10 games in 2014 for the first time since 1998, the injury bug bit the Wildcats hard in 2015. Because of a plethora of injuries, 22 different players started on defense last year. However, in spite of playing musical chairs, the Wildcats managed to beat a Top 10 team for the 4th year in a row under HC Rich Rodriguez. And in the process they also managed a 4th consecutive winning season for the first time since 1992-95. Promising QB Anu Solomon, who was whispered in Heisman talk during his freshman year in 2014 before an injury-plagued campaign flared up last season, joins explosive RB Nick Wilson – one of 4 running backs what went down in 2015 – to form a lethal 1-2 punch. If LB DeAndre’ Miller is healed up, the defense can take a major forward step.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wildcats are 2-17 ATS as favorites during the regular season from Game Ten out.

PLAY ON: at Washington State (11/5)


ARIZONA STATE (Offense – 4/1, Defense – 6/3, 63 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: HURRY UP ALREADY

After 2014’s team featured 25 freshmen and sophomores on the final two-deep roster, with 23 players having made their first Division-1 career starts (2nd most in the nation), a lot was expected – but not delivered – from the Sun Devils last season. A bitter 0-3 record in one-possession games contributed greatly. But as we’ve come to learn, experienced pimply-faces make strong cases for turning losers into winners. New OC Chip Lindsey inherits one of the best running back tandems in the Pac-12 with Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage, but must replace star QB Mike Berkovici. Lots of potential here provided the top priority becomes mending a defense that has slipped dramatically each of the last 3 years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Sun Devils allowed 4,392 passing yards, the worst of all FBS teams last season.

PLAY ON: vs. California (9/24)


COLORADO (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 9/3, 62 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BUFFALO BASHING

Poor Mike MacIntyre. As if going 2-25 in Pac-12 play during his first three seasons with the Buffaloes isn’t bad enough, his herd must roam to Michigan and Oregon in the last two weeks of September to open the 2016 season. In addition, they will also take on no less than 10 bowl teams from last season, including 7 in a row to end the campaign, making the task challenging as well. All of which means MacIntyre – like his team’s namesake – could be extinct by season’s end. To his credit, though, Colorado’s defense has improved each and every year under MacIntyre despite owning the weakest recruiting classes in the conference the last two years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Buffaloes are 1-19 of late in Pac-12 play, including a winless conference record two years ago for the first time since 1898.

PLAY ON: vs. UCLA (11/3)


UCLA (Offense – *5/2, Defense – 9/2, 44 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: PUSHING THE RE-START BUTTON

After winning 9 games three straight years for the first time in school history, head coach Jim Mora’s troops ran out of gas in 2015, losing 3 of their final four games to finish the season with 8 wins. Nonetheless, 8 players were taken in this year’s NFL Draft, the third most behind Ohio State (12) and Clemson (9). FR RB Soso Jamabo, the No. 1 running back in last season’s recruiting class, played second fiddle and backed up Paul Perkins (NYG) last year. Jamabo excelled in his supporting role to Perkins, averaging 6.1 yards per carry on 66 attempts. He forms a super sophomore duo with young phenom quarterback Josh “Chosen” Rosen... and that’s a good start. Meanwhile, FR LB Mique Juarez has the potential to make everyone quickly forget about Myles Jack.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bruins have not won a Pac-12 championship since 1998.


PLAY ON: at Washington State (10/15) - *KEY as a dog

USC (Offense – *7/5, Defense – 7/2, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: OMG

Talk about murderous schedules! Not only do the Trojans open with defending national champion Alabama and end with rival Notre Dame, they will take on a total of 11 opponents that played in a bowl game last season. And both of their most challenging Pac-12 North division battles will be on the road at Stanford and Washington. A 2-man battle to replace QB Cody Kessler remains between strong-armed Max Browne and 6’ 4 play-making Sam Darnold. The good news is USC's entire starting offensive line (2 seniors and 3 juniors) returns with a wealth of experience behind it. SO RB Dominic “The Flash” Davis runs a 4.3 in the 40 and is said to be a defensive lineman’s last glimpse. Defensively, a young and inexperienced front 7, decimated by injuries this spring, likely holds the key to their success in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Trojans have played for five different head coaches over the last 37 games.

PLAY ON: vs. Notre Dame (11/26) - *KEY as a dog


UTAH (Offense - 6/4, Defense – 8/4, 60 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: HOLLOWED OUT

The loss of star RB Devontae Booker and QB Travis Wilson could equal a descent into a bottomless cavern for the Utes. The last time Utah opened a season without Travis Wilson behind center was 2013. Wilson, who played in 46 games (starting 39 times), finished his career with 8,627 total yards and 75 total TDs (54 passing and 21 rushing) for the Utes. JUCO QB Troy Williams looks to replace Wilson. Williams, formerly with the Washington Huskies, threw for 2,750 yards and 31 TDs in only one season at junior college level. In addition, the offensive line returns well stocked with plenty of experience. Kyle Whittingham returns as the longest tenured coach in the Pac-12. With a 32-16 SU mark at Utah in one-possession games, we understand why.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Whittingham owns the best bowl winning percentage (.900) of any coach in NCAA history.

PLAY AGAINST: at California (10/1)

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ACC Betting Outlook
August 5, 2016


ACC Coastal Preview

In several recent seasons there have been some underwhelming ACC Coastal champions but last season North Carolina raised the bar for the division going 8-0 and giving Clemson a great battle in the championship game.

The Coastal won the ACC Championship four straight seasons from 2007-2010 but the Atlantic has been the powerhouse since and that is expected to be the case this season. There are a few Coastal squads with a chance to make some noise however.

FAVORITE: Miami, FL

The Hurricanes have failed to reach the double-digit win count that the stature of the program commands in 12 straight seasons. Mark Richt will be the fourth Miami head coach in that run and after sustained success at Georgia for 15 years he returns to his alma mater. The Hurricanes have the potential to have a strong 2016 season as the team will have a less demanding non-conference schedule than in several recent seasons and the ACC slate also lines up reasonably well. Miami won’t play Clemson or Louisville and the meeting with Florida State will be at home. A team that is just 4-7 in road games the past two seasons should have a chance to have stronger road results this season even though they have games in Blacksburg and South Bend in back-to-back October weeks. Miami’s roster is loaded with talent and experience on offense and the defense should have the opportunity to improve after a step-back 2015 season. Despite the coaching change Miami still wound up 8-5 last season with a 5-3 ACC record and the three conference losses came against teams that went a combined 23-1 in the ACC regular season.

CONTENDER: North Carolina

North Carolina went 8-0 in ACC play last season before losing in the championship game but they did draw a favorable path pulling NC State and Wake Forest from the Atlantic. Wake Forest is traded for Florida State this season but the Tar Heels are still a serious contender in this division. Three of North Carolina’s conference road wins came by slim margins last year and two of the four road games appear to be of the very difficult variety this season. A tough opening two weeks is also ahead with the Tar Heels facing Georgia and Illinois in non-conference action away from home and for a squad with a new quarterback and several departures on defense it will be difficult to match last season’s 11-3 campaign. North Carolina still allowed 436 yards per game last season and in the final four games of the season including the bowl loss to Baylor the Tar Heels surrendered 155 points as the defense will need to show improvement to keep UNC on top of the division.

SLEEPER: Virginia Tech

It will be a transition season with Justin Fuente replacing the legendary Frank Beamer for Virginia Tech. Fuente had a successful four-year run at Memphis and he has kept much of the defensive staff in tact from Beamer’s administration. The Hokies have two extremely difficult non-conference games as getting back to the national spotlight looks unlikely in 2016 but in Coastal division where 6-2 might be enough Virginia Tech has a promising opportunity to be in the mix. Virginia Tech draws Boston College and Syracuse from the Atlantic as they will avoid the heavyweight ACC contenders and while they have a few difficult road games in the division, the program has featured a winning road record in six of the last seven seasons. Fuente should be able to improve on a surprising 5-8 record in Blacksburg the past two seasons and keeping a long bowl streak for the program looks very realistic with the Hokies a possibility to emerge in the ACC race.

IMPROVED: Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets went from going 11-3 in 2014 to just 3-9 last season and Paul Johnson’s ninth-season in Atlanta looks likely to be a bounce-back campaign. Despite the ugly record the Yellow Jackets outscored their opposition on the season but wound up with six losses by eight or fewer points. A rise back to the top of the Coastal looks unlikely as they face a difficult conference road schedule, although one break is only facing three true ACC road games with the meeting with Boston College to open the season being played in Ireland. Facing Clemson as well as tough non-conference games with Vanderbilt and Georgia could temper the success to only modest improvement in 2016 but with a decent group of returning players getting back to the bowl picture looks realistic. The 2015 defense for Georgia Tech was significantly stronger statistically than the far more successful 2014 defense but the offense took a big step back and there is room for a step forward in 2016.

SINKING: Pittsburgh

The Panthers have had some tough luck with its coaching staffs bolting in recent years and after three seasona Paul Chryst left for the Wisconsin position prior to last season. Pat Narduzzi wound up having a successful first season with the Panthers going 8-5 in 2015 even after a disappointing bowl loss for the best Pittsburgh season since 2010, the year the team relieved Dave Wannstedt. The Panthers have decent experience returning on both sides of the ball in 2016 but a decline may be possible as the non-conference schedule will be upgraded with three formidable games ahead. In ACC play the Panthers also pick-up a road game with Clemson while also facing two top Coastal contenders North Carolina and Miami on the road. Four of six ACC wins last season came by seven or fewer points for Pittsburgh and on the season the Panthers barely had a positive point differential despite the solid record. Ultimately a lot went right for Pittsburgh last season and the 2016 squad looks like one that might teeter right on the bowl cut line.

ACC Atlantic Preview

The ACC Atlantic has produced five straight ACC champions with three Florida State titles in succession bookended by a Clemson title in 2011 and last season, with the Tigers and the 2014 Seminoles also making it to the College Football Playoff.

Those two teams appear to be the heavy favorites in 2016 with the October 29 meeting likely deciding this division, as well as deciding the likely ACC title favorite and a serious national contender.

FAVORITE: Florida State

While Clemson returns one of the top Heisman Trophy candidates in quarterback DeShaun Watson, Florida State should be consider the favorite in 2016 in the Atlantic. The Seminoles return nearly its entire offense from last season and the defense has a chance to improve for the second straight season and get closer to the numbers posted in 2013’s BCS Championship season. The schedule is far from easy with an opener in Orlando vs. Ole Miss plus road games at Louisville and at Miami but Florida State will host Clemson as well as the season finale with Florida. The Seminoles have enough weight in their schedule to be a national playoff contender even if they take a loss at some point provided they still win the division and the subsequent ACC title game with the Atlantic champion poised to be a solid favorite over whatever team emerges from the Coastal division.

CONTENDER: Clemson

The path for Clemson into the national picture might be more favorable as if the Tigers get by a tough opening game with Auburn on the road as they should be a solid favorite in every other game except for the huge late October clash in Tallahassee. While Dabo Swinney will return a good portion of the offense that led the team to a 14-1 season and runner-up finish in the College Football Playoff, the defense has some serious question marks. For the second straight season only a few starters return and despite the success last season, statistically the 2015 squad was much worse defensively than the 2014 team that suffered three losses. While the schedule will give Clemson a good shot at a sixth straight double-digit win season the two biggest games of the season are road games. The Coastal draw for the Tigers is more favorable than Florida State’s pull but ultimately it is hard to see the Atlantic champion not being the winner of the Clemson/Florida State game and the Tigers have won in Tallahassee once in 12 meetings since 1993.

SLEEPER: Louisville

The Cardinals were considered a national sleeper by some last season but they opened the season 0-3. Losing to Auburn proved to be a less impressive showing than expected last season but Houston and Clemson wound up being teams that combined to go 27-2 last season and Louisville lost those two games by three-points each. Bobby Petrino has an experienced roster and after juggling quarterbacks last season there should be more continuity for the offense this season. Louisville will play Florida State at home early in the season but there are tough road games ahead including challenging non-conference games with Marshall and Houston. In the Atlantic Louisville could have a chance however as they draw Duke and Virginia from the Coastal division and if they can score an upset over one of the top two teams they could have a chance to sneak into the division race even if running the table and being a player in the national picture looks unlikely.

IMPROVED: Wake Forest

After growing a Bowling Green program that has had continued success, Dave Clawson took a challenging job at Wake Forest before the 2014 season. Back-to-back 3-9 campaigns have been difficult but in his third season in Winston-Salem he will have a veteran roster and a schedule that should allow for improvement. The Demon Deacons figure to be favored in three of four non-conference games while ACC home games with Syracuse, Virginia, and Boston College are games Wake Forest should have a reasonable chance in even with a 2-14 combined record in the conference the past two seasons. Four of the team’s losses came by eight or fewer points last season and getting the program to a bowl game for the first time since 2011 looks like realistic possibility.

SINKING: NC State

While Jacoby Brissett didn’t wind up with quite the career some envisioned as a highly touted Florida transfer he was still a great college quarterback that will be missed for the Wolfpack. NC State has been in back-to-back owl games under Dave Doeren but each the past two seasons has featured 4-0 starts to the season through very weak non-conference schedules. This season NC State is hosting Notre Dame while also playing at known ACC upset-maker East Carolina as getting two thirds of the way to bowl eligibility in non-ACC games is unlikely this season. Add that NC State has pulled formidable Miami and North Carolina teams from the Coastal draw while also playing two of the three projected top Atlantic teams on the road it could be a challenging year in Raleigh. Doeren is just 6-18 in ACC play in three seasons and the Wolfpack will likely be dogged in at least five of eight ACC games this season.

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Harbaugh's Q Score soars past Saban
August 5, 2016

ANN ARBOR, Mich. (AP) Jim Harbaugh's ways seem to be working with his target audience.

Michigan's coach has starred in a rap video, traveled the country for youth camps, taken his team to Florida for spring break, traded barbs on Twitter and even had sleepovers with recruits.

He's done all of that - and much more - entering his second season with the Wolverines.

If generating buzz to attract recruits to help revive a storied program is Harbaugh's aim, he's hitting the mark.

Harbaugh is much more popular than Alabama coach Nick Saban among millennial males, according to a New York-based company that measures the awareness and appeal of personalities. And, at least some data shows Harbaugh is on the verge of having his celebrity transcend the sports world with those same young men between the ages of 18 and 34.

''Harbaugh is making a significantly stronger impact than Saban among younger males and that seems to be his objective,'' Henry Schafer, executive vice president of The Q Scores Company, said in a telephone interview Friday. ''And, Harbaugh is on the cusp of being an iconic figure among the general population in the same demographic.''

Nearly three-fourths of male sports fans between 18 and 34 are aware of Harbaugh. Harbaugh's Q score is 25 among that group, meaning one out of four millennial males said he was a favorite of theirs in a survey done earlier this year. Saban is someone 68 percent of millennial males surveyed are familiar with and his Q score is 21 among them.

The Q Scores Company conducted its latest survey in February, just after Harbaugh slept at the houses of recruits and prior to him becoming the first college football coach - and perhaps the last - to take his team way off campus for spring drills in Florida. In June, the envelope-pushing coach barnstormed around the country for satellite camps that the NCAA banned after the SEC and ACC pushed for a proposal to do so only to have that decision rescinded.

''I don't know about `Q Ratings,' but I do know that it was priceless to coach and teach 15 to 20,000 youngsters at those camps,'' Harbaugh told The Associated Press, just before throwing out the ceremonial first pitch at a recent Chicago Cubs game. ''Obviously, we didn't do all those camps just for recruiting because all of those youngsters aren't coming to Michigan. But they were all introduced to and learned more about the great game of football.''

Michigan was good, not great, in Harbaugh's first season leading his alma mater.

The Wolverines were 10-3, opening with a setback to Utah and losing later to Ohio State and Michigan State.

They are positioned for a successful start to this season, hosting the first five games, all of which they will likely be favored to win. They appear to have tougher tests in the back half of the schedule, including road games against the Buckeyes and Spartans, rivals who have had their way with the maize and blue in recent years.

If Harbaugh and the Wolverines don't win more games this season and lose to both rivals again, his efforts to create buzz will fall flat. And, he'll still have five fewer national championships than Saban.

''Hype is just hype. It doesn't mean anything,'' Michigan receiver Jehu Chesson said. ''You've got to beat your rivals, and we don't shy away from that.''

Between spring drills and training camp, Harbaugh appeared in a rap video with Bailey, whose song ''Who's Got It Better Than Us?'' plays off a catch phrase of Harbaugh's father, Jack. The senior Harbaugh asked his kids, including Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh, that question when they were growing up and ''Nobody!'' was the expected response.

Jack Harbaugh, who recently moved into a house ''500 feet,'' from his son's house in Ann Arbor, said there is no disconnect between the perception and reality of Jim Harbaugh.

''Jim is who is he and he doesn't ever worry about the backlash,'' said Jack Harbaugh. ''He took his shirt off at a camp, and people are still talking about it a year later. They asked him to be in a rap video and he had some fun with it. Some liked it. Others didn't, and that doesn't bother him.''

His current players and the ones he is recruiting, those in the aforementioned millennial group, seem to be fans of Harbaugh's unique style.

Harbaugh's boss, Warde Manuel, doesn't fit in the same demographic. However, Manuel also admires Harbaugh's approach and is thankful his first season in charge of the athletic department will be Harbaugh's second season on the sideline at the Big House.

''Having him back has meant a lot to the university, athletic department and Michigan football in ways that can be measured: wins, ticket sales and donations,'' Manuel said. ''And in many intangible ways, he has made people feel good around here and from afar about him and Michigan.''

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Predictions
August 8, 2016


I only have one season win total that I like out of the 10 schools in the Big 12. That’s Texas Tech to go ‘over’ six wins at a -130 price (risk $130 to win $100).

Kliff Kingsbury’s team returns 12 starters, six on each side of the ball. Most important, the Red Raiders bring back junior quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has a 52/19 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his first two seasons.

Mahomes completed 364-of-573 passes (63.5%) for 4,653 yards and 36 TDs in 2015. He makes plays with his legs also, rushing for 624 yards (before deducted sack yardage) and 10 TDs.

The Texas Tech offense racked up an average of 45.1 points per game last year. This unit lost leading rusher DeAndre Washington (1,492 yards and 14 TDs) and leading receiver Jakeem Grant, who had 90 catches for 1,268 yards and 10 TDs in 2015. Nevertheless, this group won’t skip a beat and might be even better in 2016.

Texas Tech remains loaded at WR with Devin Lauderdale (42 receptions, 639 yards and 4 TDs), Ian Sadler (42-586 & 3) and Reginald Davis (38-536 & 8) back in the mix. Junior RB Justin Stockton will take over Washington’s duties after producing 367 yards and five TDs on just 61 carries last season. Stockton, who had a 6.0 yards-per-carry average, also had 22 catches for 341 yards and six TDs in ’15.

The defense is another story. This unit gave up 43.6 PPG last year and 41.3 PPG in ’14. Consider this: The Red Raiders lost games in ’15 when they scored 52 points (vs. TCU) and 53 points (vs. Oklahoma State).

There’s no reason to think Texas Tech’s ‘D’ is going to be vastly improved, but I don’t even think it needs to be for us to cash this ‘over.’

Remember, Kingsbury’s bunch finished the regular season with a 7-5 record last year, which obviously went ‘over’ six. And that’s with a loss to TCU when the Horned Frogs scored in the final minute on a fourth-and-goal play in which the TD pass was twice deflected by Red Raider defenders before landing in the hands of a TCU WR in the back of the end zone.

Four of Texas Tech’s five defeats were against ranked opponents. The lone loss to an unranked foe was a 31-26 setback at West Va. Six of the Red Raiders’ seven wins came by double-digit margins.

Looking at the schedule, there are two easy home wins in non-conference play against Stephen F. Austin and La. Tech. There’s a tough trip to Tempe to face Arizona State, but I think ASU is in store for a rough year and like the Red Raiders to beat the Sun Devils, much like how they emerged victorious in a September trip to Arkansas last season.

I’m confident Texas Tech will win at home vs. Kansas, West Va. and Texas. On the flip side, I doubt the Red Raiders will win at TCU or at Oklahoma State. In this scenario, Texas Tech would be 6-2 with four games remaining.

But for the sake of conversation, let’s take away one of those victories – whether it be at ASU or one of the home games vs. WVU or Texas.

If that’s the case, we’re sitting at 5-3 needing one win to push and two wins to cash a winner. The four remaining games are at Kansas State (Oct. 8), vs. Oklahoma (10/22), at Iowa State (11/19) and vs. Baylor in Arlington on Nov. 25.

First, let’s consider the trip to the Baby Apple. When these schools met at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock last year, Texas Tech won a 59-44 decision thanks to 658 yards of total offense. Now of course, the circumstances will be different at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. But Kansas State is off a 6-7 campaign, albeit one in which the QB position was decimated by injuries, and returns five starters on offense and seven on defense.

I like the Red Raiders to win at Kansas State. They won outright as road underdogs twice last season – at Arkansas and at Texas. Also, I like them to win at Iowa State. Texas Tech destroyed the Cyclones 66-31 in ’15 by racking up 776 yards of offense.

With those two victories, we’re in the win column already. With a split, we’re sitting at a push with a home game vs. OU and the Baylor game at Jerry World remaining. Texas Tech will almost certainly will be an underdog in both spots, but it could win either game if it plays outstanding football. OU lost to Texas as a 16.5-point favorite in ’15, and we aren’t yet sure how Baylor will perform after an offseason of adversity only rivaled by a team in Oxford, Miss.

Texas Tech ‘over’ six wins is the best season win total bet of the Big 12 schools.

Moving on to our predictions for the rest of the league…

1) Oklahoma: I have OU ranked fourth in my preseason Power Rankings, but I’ve said all summer that it probably has the easiest path to the College Football Playoff. Bob Stoops’s squad went 11-2 last season, losing 24-17 vs. Texas before running the table the rest of the regular season. In the CFP semifinals, OU led Clemson 17-16 at intermission, but the Tigers dominated the second half en route to a 37-17 victory.

Obviously, part of my thought process with OU’s ‘easiest path’ is due to the lack of a potential defeat in a conference championship game since none exists in the Big 12 since Nebraska and Colorado bolted out of the league.

The Sooners return seven starters on offense and six on defense. Most important, QB Baker Mayfield and RB Samaje Perine are back. Mayfield enjoyed a remarkable year under the direction of offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley, who was the best offseason coordinator hire going into ’15 (with apologies to the second-best, Texas A&M DC John Chavis). Stoops snatched Riley away from East Carolina, where he helped Shane Carden and Justin Hardy shred ECU’s history books with his ‘Air Raid’ attack. Mayfield connected on 68.1 percent of his throws for 3,700 yards and a 36/7 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for seven scores. Meanwhile, Perine ran for 1,349 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC.

Mayfield loses his favorite target Sterling Shepard, but Dede Westbrook returns after hauling in 46 receptions for 743 yards and four TDs. Geno Lewis joins the WR group as a grad transfer from Penn State after starting 18 games for the Nittany Lions in three seasons. There’s also TE Mark Andrews, who garnered first-team All Big 12 honors after making seven TD catches last year. Phil Steele ranks OU’s o-line as the second-best behind only WVU in the Big 12 and 22nd-best in the nation.

OU’s 2015 defense gave up only 22.0 PPG, which was easily tops in the Big 12. This unit will be led by LB Jordan Evans (83 tackles), DE Charles Walker (six sacks) and CB Jordan Thomas (five INTs).

I have OU going 11-1 in the regular season. There are five potential defeats on the slate – vs. Houston (at NGR Stadium in Houston), vs. Ohio State in Week 3, at TCU, at Texas Tech and at West Va. There’s also the Bedlam game in Norman, where the Cowboys were victorious as 21-point ‘dogs two seasons ago.

The Sooners do get two weeks to prepare for the toughest road assignment against the Horned Frogs in Ft. Worth. I’ll say it will be Texas Tech that clips OU.

2) Baylor: I have Baylor going 10-2. If I were to play another win total in the Big 12, it would probably be the Bears ‘over’ 8.5 at a -120 price. I’ve also seen 5Dimes with a total of nine that pays a generous plus return (+175 at last look). With that said, I’m hesitant on that play and haven’t pulled the trigger on it simply due to the uncertainty of the coaching change. Jim Grobe was a quality get under the circumstances, but only time will tell if it’s the right fit.

The offseason was obviously brutal with the dismissal of the greatest coach in school history (Art Briles), who had a remarkable run that included six straight bowl appearance and four double-digit win seasons in the last five years. But the roster remains stacked with talent. Five starters are back on each side of the ball from a 10-3 team that was unbeaten until it lost its starting QB. Two of the defeats were one-possession games, including a double OT loss at TCU and a 23-17 home setback to Texas when Baylor was down to its fourth-string QB due to injuries.

Seth Russell returns after going down in the seventh game of ’15. He was only playing 2-3 quarters per game in those seven blowouts, yet he still threw for 2,104 yards with a 29/6 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 402 yards and six TDs while averaging 8.2 YPC. He has a pair of 1,000-yard rushers returning in Shock Linwood and Johnny Jefferson. Devin Chafin will also get his fair share of touches. That RB trio combined for 27 rushing scores last year. Also, KD Cannon was a second-team All Big pick at WR last year. The five starters back on defense were among the top six tacklers on the ’15 unit.

Assuming the Bears can beat Oklahoma State at home in Week 4, they should be favored by at least 21 points in five of their first six games (excluding only OSU). The six-game stretch to end of the regular season is tough, but Grobe’s team plays only one game (at home vs. Kansas) from Oct. 2 to Oct. 28. After an Oct. 1 game at Iowa State, Baylor has an open date before hosting KU (10/15), followed by another open date before going to Austin to face Texas. So obviously, the Bears should be fresh and healthy when taking on the Longhorns.

3) (Tie): I have Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and TCU all finishing 8-4. We’ve covered the Red Raiders, so let’s hit on Gary Patterson’s team first. TCU brings back three starters on offense and eight on defense. The ‘D’ gave up 27.2 PPG in ’15, the worst scoring defense for the Frogs in more than a decade. I expect this unit to be improved and watch out for DE Josh Carraway, who had 47 tackles, nine sacks, nine QB hurries and 2.5 tackles for loss last season.

Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill is the likely starter at QB. Now that we’ve seen that Hill isn’t the only QB to clash with Kevin Sumlin, perhaps the most important thing to remember about Hill is that he was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy until the Aggies went to Starkville in early October of 2014. He has the (co) Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year (WR KaVontae Turpin) as one weapon, in addition to WR Deante Gray, who had to redshirt due to an injury last season.

Most books have TCU’s win total at nine with plus money (+115ish) available for ‘over’ wagers. I think the defeats come vs. OU, at WVU, at Baylor and at Texas (on a short week).

Oklahoma State went 10-3 last season for its fourth double-digit win total in the last six years. The Cowboys have 10 starters back on offense and seven on defense. The offense scored at a 39.5 PPG clip in ’15 thanks to excellent QB play from junior Mason Rudolph, who threw for 3,770 yards with a 21/9 TD-INT ratio. Rudolph has his favorite target back in James Washington, who had 53 receptions for 1,087 yards and 10 TDs.

Mike Gundy’s squad won four one-possession games and rallied from multiple double-digit deficits to win at Texas Tech by a 70-53 score. The three defeats came by double-digit margins. The Cowboys were +13 in the turnover department for the season. They were only +532 in yardage for a 10-3 team, so those numbers point to a team that was fortunate to finish seven games over .500.

I think OSU loses at Baylor, at Kansas State, at TCU and at OU. The win total is in the right place at eight flat (-110 either way).

6) Texas: This is a make-or-break season for third-year head coach Charlie Strong, who is 11-14 since arriving in Austin from Louisville. If not for a stunning win over Oklahoma last year, he might not have seen a third year at UT. He’d better go 9-3 to feel safe, but an 8-4 might work if the four defeats are close games and things are looking up for ’17. (If he gets blown out by the Sooners, the ‘unofficial’ search for a new coach probably begins within 24-48 hours.)

Strong has to get better QB play, which has been the major issue in both of his seasons at the helm. There’s hope that true freshman Shane Buechele might be the answer and he did leave high school early to participate in spring drills. Jerrod Heard and Tyrone Swoops are both quality runners, but they aren’t accurate passers in a league where you need to score a lot of points.

Strong was one of the SEC’s best d-coordinators for more than a decade, but even that side of the ball has struggled on his watch. Actually, the ’14 ‘D’ was solid (23.8 PPG), but last season’s unit allowed 30.3 PPG. The Longhorns scored 44 at California and 45 vs. Texas Tech, only to lose in both contests. They finished 5-7 despite a +11 tally in the turnover department. They were -982 in yardage for the year.

Seven starters return on offense and eight are back on defense. I have the Longhorns going 7-5, but that’s with wins at Cal, at Kansas State, vs. WVU and vs. TCU, none of which are givens by any means.

7) West Virginia: I also have the Mountaineers finishing 7-5. Their win total is 7.5 shaded to the ‘under’ at -120. They finished ’15 with an 8-5 mark after beating Arizona State 43-42 at the Cactus Bowl. Dana Holgorsen’s sixth team in Morgantown returns eight starters on offense but just four on ‘D.’

WVU finished second in the Big 12 in scoring defense (24.6 PPG) last year, but this unit has only one of its top seven tacklers back. And the d-line’s depth has taken a hit here recently with injuries to Xavier Pegues and Jaleel Fields. Pegues might be able to return in late October or November, but Fields is done for the season.

Phil Steele ranks WVU’s o-line as the best in the Big 12. RB Wendell Smallwood (1,519 rushing yards) is gone, but Rushel Shell (708 yards and eight TDs) is more than ready to take on a heavier load. QB Skyler Howard (26/14 TD-INT) threw for 3,145 yards and rushed for 726 (502 after subtracting sack yardage), but he needs to get more accurate (54.8%) and cut down on the turnovers. He has leading WRs Shelton Gibson (887 yards & and nine TDs) and Daikiel Shorts (528 yards & five TDs) back in the mix.

The non-conference schedule includes a home game against Missouri in Week 1 and a Week 4 game vs. BYU in Landover, MY. WVU will have two weeks to prep for the Cougars, who are at Arizona (Glendale actually), at Utah and at home vs. UCLA in the three previous weeks. The Mountaineers get their other open date leading into a road trip to Texas Tech.

To its advantage, WVU gets OU, Baylor and TCU at home, but the Frogs have two weeks to prep for the Mountaineers.

Rounding out the rest of the Big 12, I have Kansas State going 5-7, while Iowa State and KU will finish 4-8 and 2-10, respectively. Bill Snyder teams almost always turn out better than they look on paper, so the Wildcats could certainly go bowling again. They are off a 6-7 season and bring back five starters on offense and seven on ‘D.’

I just don’t feel like KSU measures up to the other Big 12 teams. Granted, the QB position was mired with injuries last year and that’s a situation that can ruin a season for most schools. But the Wildcats only beat two teams with winning records, and both of those Ws came at home to La. Tech in three OTs and vs. WVU (24-23) in a game where the Mountaineers held a 447-304 advantage in yardage. KSU finished the season minus 1,541 yards overall.

I like the hire of Matt Campbell in Ames, but Iowa State has won three games or fewer in three consecutive seasons. The Cyclones do have a stud RB in Mike Warren, who garnered (co) Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year honors after rushing for 1,339 yards and five TDs in ’15. QB Joel Lanning (10/4 TD-INT) will have to hold off Jacob Park for the starting QB position. Park was a highly-rated recruit for Georgia, but he transferred after one year in Athens.

[StarDust Bum]

AAC Betting Outlook
August 7, 2016


AAC West Preview

The young American Athletic Conference had a successful 2015 season with Houston earning a Peach Bowl spot and making the most of the opportunity with an upset win over Florida State. The Cougars lead the way in 2016 with a few other programs capable of making a splash in the West division as well.

FAVORITE: Houston

The Cougars went 8-1 in AAC play last season and wound up 13-1 on the season to finish as a top 10 nationally ranked team. That was all in the first season under Tom Herman and expectations will be very high again in 2016. The opener in Houston vs. Oklahoma will determine whether or not Houston remains on the national stage, but there is reason to believe Houston could have a bit more of a challenge in the division even if the Cougars are likely on track for another very successful season. Greg Ward will be on the Heisman Trophy short list even from a smaller conference in his senior season and the defense has room for improvement with a few suspect performances last season for a squad that has had charmed turnover fortune in recent years. The AAC road schedule has some hurdles for the Cougars with games at Cincinnati and at Navy as Houston will have the potential to get tripped up a few more times than last season despite being the clear favorite in this division and the conference as a whole.

CONTENDER: Navy

In its first season in conference play, Navy won the first seven AAC games before losing 52-31 at Houston late in the season. With a bowl win Navy wound up 11-2 for the most successful season in eight years under Ken Niumatalolo. Navy will get to host Houston this season looking to turn the tables and avoiding Cincinnati and Temple from the East provides a bit of a break in the schedule. Navy plays Notre Dame and Air Force out of the conference as matching last season’s record will be a challenge especially with nearly the entire starting offense being replaced from last season. While Navy will have a hard time matching last season’s success they should be the chief contender to Houston in this division as the defense should be strong and the biggest conference games will be at home where Navy wound up 7-0 last season.

SLEEPER: Tulsa

The Golden Hurricane made waves last season with a bowl berth, actually giving Virginia Tech all it could handle in a furious Independence Bowl rally, ultimately losing 55-52 as one of the bigger underdogs of the bowl season. Tulsa scored over 37 points per game last season as the offense thrived under Philip Montgomery and another step forward is possible even with a lot of ground to make up defensively. Houston dominated the conference last season while still allowing 384 yards per game as an elite defense won’t be necessary to win this division and Tulsa has a good shot to improve on last season’s 3-5 AAC record. Pulling East Carolina and UCF from the East is a scheduling advantage and while they also draw Cincinnati, that game will be the home finale. Tulsa would need some chaos in the division to have a real shot at claiming the top spot, but if there are a few upsets, the Hurricane appears poised to be the team that makes the leap with another solid bowl season likely ahead

IMPROVED: SMU

SMU has just three wins the past two seasons combined, but the Mustangs were pretty competitive last season in a switch to an up-tempo offense. SMU allowed big numbers on defense and typically ran out of gas late in games, but in the second season under Chad Morris, improvement is likely. The home schedule is daunting with three of the conference’s top teams playing in Dallas and with non-conference games against Big XII powers Baylor and TCU, a winning season looks like a reach. Expect SMU to perhaps get an upset or two along the way and the Mustangs look like a good candidate to double their win count from last season. Quarterback Matt Davis did a good job of limiting turnovers last season and the senior dual-threat that was initially at Texas A&M could be one of the most productive players in the conference.

SINKING: Memphis

The Tigers have 19 wins the past two seasons, but the program had 12 total wins the previous five seasons combined. Sinking back to the bottom of the conference looks unlikely, but staying above .500 is far from a given with heavy personnel losses from last season led by head coach Justin Fuente moving to Virginia Tech and quarterback Paxton Lynch now in the NFL. The Memphis defense actually regressed significantly from the 2014 squad and another year of decline is real possibility in 2016 with three of the team’s top four leading tacklers departed. Memphis has three fairly challenging non-conference games and the Tigers will play Cincinnati, South Florida, and Temple from the East, drawing likely the best three teams from the other side of the AAC. The four conference home games are all difficult and the 10-2 record in Memphis the past two seasons will be difficult to keep up for Mike Norvell in his first season as a head coach.

AAC East Preview

While Houston was the top AAC team last season, the East presented a deeper group of competition and that may again be the case in 2016. Four teams were at least 4-4 in league play last season and whoever emerges from the East this season will be a formidable team that could give presumed West champion Houston a great match in the championship.

FAVORITE: Cincinnati

The Bearcats disappointed at just 7-6 last season including only 4-4 in conference play. Three of four losses came on the road as Cincinnati’s defense could not match its offense. Injuries were also a factor for the Bearcats last season, but the upside is now two proven quarterbacks are on the roster. In 2016, Cincinnati will again have to play West favorite Houston, but that game along with a key game vs. South Florida will be at home. Cincinnati will be a threat to win all of its non-conference games although matchups with Purdue and BYU will not be easy. Overall, the schedule has a good balance with no consecutive road games and most of the toughest tests coming in Cincinnati where the Bearcats are 15-3 under Tommy Tuberville.

CONTENDER: South Florida

The Bulls took a big step last season going from 4-8 to 8-5 and this season, South Florida has a chance to go even further as a serious contender in the AAC. A big advantage for the Bulls is a favorable West draw with Houston notably absent, but the four road games in league play all have some risks including facing the top East division contenders away from Tampa. South Florida has three fairly difficult non-conference tests as well including hosting Florida State as a climb to a double-digit win season looks like perhaps a reach. Still, South Florida has most of its key players back from a team that was excellent defensively in conference play last season and features a formidable running game led by quarterback Quinton Flowers and running back Marlon Mack. South Florida could have a tough September, but the Bulls should not be forgotten as they could cruise in the final two months.

SLEEPER: Temple

Being the defending division champion might disqualify Temple from sleeper status, but the Owls are expected by most to decline this season and they still have the potential to contend. Seniors lead the key offensive positions and the program has featured consistently sound defense in three seasons under Matt Rhule. The schedule for the Owls is very appealing with no Houston, Navy, or Tulsa from the West and South Florida and Cincinnati are playing in Philadelphia. Temple had several underwhelming offensive performances last season in an also favorable schedule, but they did play Houston much tougher than the misleading 24-13 final score in the conference championship game, actually out-gaining Houston by nearly 50 yards, but burned on key turnovers. Most saw Temple’s strong season coming last year, but the Owls appear to be getting overlooked in 2016 despite maintaining some potential.

IMPROVED: Connecticut

If Connecticut had Temple’s schedule, they would be a serious East contender, but the Huskies have a tough draw, getting both Houston and Navy on the road in the pull from the West division. The Owls also play South Florida on the road and the non-conference schedule lacks easy outs with three games vs. ACC teams. With nearly all of last season’s offense back, Connecticut looks likely to improve its meager scoring from the past two years and the Huskies proved formidable defensively last season including being the only team to beat Houston. Ultimately, the schedule will likely prevent a significant rise in record for the Huskies, but this will be a much better team in Bob Diaco’s third season and they could catch a few of the contenders as an upset threat.

SINKING: East Carolina

After three straight winning seasons, East Carolina fell to 5-7 last season, even with a big September upset over Virginia Tech. Five defeats came by 10 or fewer points and the Pirates lost their starting quarterback right before the season started. Ruffin McNeill was let go in a surprising coaching change and it could be a significant transition for the program. Checkered transfer quarterback Phillip Nelson is hoping to be a stopgap for the offense, but matching the very productive run the Pirates had under McNeill looks challenging. The defense also slipped last season and several of the top players on defense are no longer with the team. The non-conference schedule is grueling with three ACC & SEC foes in succession and all four AAC road games look like games the Pirates will be dogged in. Scottie Montgomery has experience under some excellent coaches and could eventually get the job done in Greenville, but the Pirates might hit rock bottom in 2016.

[StarDust Bum]

2016 SEC Preview
August 7, 2016

Rolling With The Tide

When Alabama captured last year’s College Football Playoffs it marked the eighth time in the last 10 years that an SEC school claimed the National Championship.

Speaking of the Tide, for the 2nd time in the last 5 years, Alabama had 5 players selected in the Top 50 of this year’s NFL draft. In fact, looking back at the over the last 5 years the top 10 picks in the NFL draft has seen the following conference breakdown: SEC 20, Big 12 10, Pac-12 8, ACC 7, MAC 2, AAC/Big Ten/Independent 1 each.

Take Your Choice

In Las Vegas, Alabama and LSU lead the 2016 SEC win totals brigade at 10 apiece, followed by Tennessee at 9.5. Next in line are Georgia and Ole Miss at 8.5 wins, followed by Arkansas and Florida at 7.5. Auburn, Mississippi State and Texas A&M are next in line with 6.5 wins, with Texas A&M right on their heels with 6.

If the oddsmakers are correct – and they usually are - that would mean 10 teams from the nation’s most powerful league would earn bowl berths.

On the outside looking in are Missouri with 5.5, with Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt rounding things out with 5 victories.

Coordinate This

According to TigerBait.com, for the second year in a row there have been football coordinator shifts at a majority of the Southeastern Conference schools.

Four teams made no changes – Arkansas, Florida, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. All four of those teams increased their victory total in 2015.

Two head coaches fired offensive coordinators – Mark Stoops dismissed Shannon Dawson at Kentucky and Kevin Sumlin replaced Jake Spavital at Texas A&M. One head coach fired a defensive coordinator – Butch Jones dismissed John Jancek at Tennessee.

Alabama and Auburn will have new defensive coordinators after Kirby Smart and Will Muschamp became the head coaches at Georgia and South Carolina, respectively. LSU and Mississippi State had their defensive coordinators make lateral moves – Kevin Steele to Auburn and Manny Diaz to Miami. Ole Miss’ Hugh Freeze is the only head coach who will have the same coordinators for a third straight season.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

2016 SEC EAST PREVIEW

FLORIDA (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 6/2, 48 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: SLIP SLIDING

Somehow, despite an offense that slipped 7 points and 34 yards per game last season, the Gators slid into a 10-win campaign to begin the Jim McElwain era. Year Two finds two new quarterbacks battling for starting honors with redshirt sophomore Luke Del Rio holding a slight edge over Purdue transfer Austin Appleby. The real strength of the team, though is its defense, led by Caleb Brantley and a 10-deep defensive line loaded with 5 and 4-star talent. In addition, Eddy Pineiro, the No. 1 JUCO kicker in the land, brings a long-range leg to the program. After being deeply gutted last year, underclassmen made a total of 134 starts in 2015, the 5th most in the land.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Gators tied with lowly Kansas for the 3rd worst red zone offense last season.

PLAY AGAINST: at Tennessee (9/24)

GEORGIA (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 6/1, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: SMART MOVE

A new era begins in Athens where new HC Kirby Smart now walks in legendary Mark Richt’s shoes after the Bulldogs let a malcontent Richt go – despite compiling a 146-51 mark in 15 years between the hedges. QB Greyson Lambert started 12 of 13 games last season while setting the NCAA record for completion percentage in a game when he connected on 24-of-25 passes against South Carolina. RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel complete a powerful punch in the backfield. The Dawgs led the SEC in pass defense last season and all 4 starters return. Speaking of which, Smart started at safety for Georgia from 1995-98 and was Alabama’s DC the past 9 seasons. He looks to be a keen hire, indeed.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Thirty-one of the Bulldogs’ 51 losses under Mark Richt were by 7 points or less.

PASS

KENTUCKY (Offense - 9/4, Defense – 6/2, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ON THE CLOCK

The critical 4th year of the Mark Stoops era in Lexington kicks off with plenty of promise. Behind a defense that’s made solid gains each of the past 2 seasons, the Wildcats turn to a favorable schedule which features 7 home games, with no back-to-back road games. JR RB Boom Williams, who set a single-season school record by averaging 7.1 yards per carry last year, leads a deep rushing corps with 1,341 yards and 11 TDs on 195 carries. Still, it’s been 6 straight losing seasons as the wear and tear of facing the nation’s 5th most difficult schedule in 2015 buried the Cats when they went 0-7 to close out the campaign. The clock is ticking for Stoops’ troops.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After completing a $120M “reimagining” of Commonwealth Stadium last year, Kentucky debuts a new $45M practice complex this season.

PLAY ON: vs. Vanderbilt (10/8)

MISSOURI (Offense – *5/1, Defense – 8/4, 45 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: TIGER BLOOD

To say it was a tough year for the Tigers last season is an understatement of major proportions. Gary Pinkel, the winningest coach in program history, announced his retirement following a diagnosis with lymphoma. One-day prior, the team successfully protested an on-campus racial incident that led to the university president’s resignation. And former starting QB Maty Mauk was tossed from the team for violating team policies. In the end, Mizzou went from 11 wins to 5, putting a merciful end to a calamitous season. It’s 2016 and former DC Barry Odom takes over as head coach hoping new OC Josh Heupel (BYU) can instill a ray of life into a program desperately in need of a transfusion.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 23-1 SU and 17-5 ATS the last 3 years in games where they outgain their opponent.

PASS

SOUTH CAROLINA (Offense – *4/2, Defense – 6/2, 44 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: LONG AND ROCKY ROAD

We agree that new head coach Will Muschamp didn’t walk into a great situation. The Gamecocks’ 1st-year coach acknowledged his team has a shocking lack of talent. “We need to have more playmakers. We don’t have too much depth. On defense, the secondary is a concern just for coverage ability down the field.” It’s not like a lot of injuries caused USC’s 3-9 slide last year and all those players are healthy now. The Gamecocks’ systematic failure in recruiting since the middle of a 33-6 3-year run has left them well behind what they’re about to face this season. “It means we’ve got some good walk-ons here,” said Muschamp. As in “Good enough to play over guys we put on scholarship." Gulp.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Gamecocks were outscored by 10.2 PPG and outyarded by 109 YPG versus conference foes, worst in the SEC last season.

PASS

TENNESSEE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 8/3, 57 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ORANGE SWARM

Head coach Butch Jones has improved the Vols’ win total by 2 games each of the last two years. That’s an improvement of leaps and bounds for a team that was stuck on 5 wins for three years running after he took the reins in 2013. The surge started in 2014 after Tennessee played 23 true freshmen – the most in the nation – the year prior, and then followed it up with 240 total returning starts in 2015. UT is loaded with returning starters this year, including SR QB Joshua Dobbs (14-5 over his last 19 starts) and a group of underclassmen that made 143 starts last season (2nd most in the nation). Once again, beware of the Vols.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vols’ combined margin of defeat of 17 points was the fewest of any FBS program that finished with 3 or more losses last season.

PASS

VANDERBILT (Offense – *8/3, Defense – 7/2, 58 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: A WHOLE NEW SPIN ON THE MASON JAR

After 26 players made their first FBS start for Derek Mason’s fledgling team in 2014, a total of 123 overall starts were made by underclassmen last season. Vanderbilt’s youth movement paid off in 2015, as it was one of the nation's most improved defenses under Mason’s direction. He’ll continue to handle the defensive coordinator chores for the second straight year in 2016, welcoming back 5 of his top 6 tacklers. Expect 6 new coaches on the staff this year to stress ball protection and takeaways. In their recent 3-year bowl run, the 'Dores were a combined +8 in turnover margin. They own a jarring -24 in turnover margin the last 2 years under Mason.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Commodores are 0-15 SU and 2-13 ATS in Game Six of the season the last 15 years.

PLAY ON: at Western Kentucky (9/24)

2016 SEC WEST PREVIEW

ALABAMA (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 5/1, 48 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: THREE’S COMPANY

As has become the rule, the Tide was hit hard with graduation losses and NFL defections once again this year. But before shedding a tear, it’s a well-known fact that Alabama has significantly out-recruited teams each of the last 5 years – meaning all they do is re-load. It’s easy to do when your coach is 110-18, with 4 conference and 4 national championships, at the school. And your team has made an NCAA record 63 bowl appearances. Beware: Alabama freshmen started a combined 57 games last season, meaning the losses they incurred will be filled in like magic putty, making the Tide’s primary goal this season to win a 3rd straight SEC title for the first time since 1977-79.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tide was the first team to win back-to-back SEC titles last year since 1997-98 Tennessee.

PLAY ON: at Mississippi (9/17)

ARKANSAS (Offense – 5/2, Defense – 9/3, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: HARD-TRYING HOGS

A 6-2 finish squashed a dismal 2-4 start last season, sending the Hogs to a 3rd straight bowl game under HC Bret Beilema. Behind a stripped-down offense, the Razorbacks will rely on a defense that could be tremendous up front. If new defensive assistant Paul Rhoads (a former defensive coordinator and head coach at Iowa State the past 8 seasons) can make a difference, it could make the Razorbacks a force on that side of the ball. But replacing all-SEC QB Brandon Allen (3,340 yards, 30 TDs and 8 INTs) and all SEC RB Alex Collins (1,577 yards, 20 TDs) on offense will be a daunting task. Tackling 10 foes with winning records last year makes it even more problematical.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Razorbacks tied with South Carolina for the fewest fumbles lost (3) last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Texas A&M (9/24)

AUBURN (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 6/3, 53 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: DON’T FUSS WITH GUS

Arguably the most disappointing team in college football last season, the Tigers (picked to win the conference title and make the College Football Playoff by many respected scribes) look to reverse their misfortune with a helping hand from the schedule maker. Opening the season with 5 consecutive home games while having no back-to-back road games, Auburn will take to the highway a mere 4 times this campaign. Granted, 7 of its first 8 games come against bowl teams, but 4 of them are SEC revengers. New DC Kevin Steele comes over from LSU looking to patch a defense that has surrendered 408 YPG under Malzahn’s tenure. Expect 2016 to be the year of the Tiger in the SEC.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 29-0 SU at home in non-conference games since 2007.

PLAY ON: as a dog at Georgia (11/12)

LSU (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 9/4, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: EYE OF THE TIGER

He’s back… although he never left. And for what seems like the umpteenth time, head coach Les Miles’ threat to leave LSU last year once again never took place. Thus, the Mad Hatter welcomes back a powerful class loaded with experience, and RB Leonard Fournette, who is a frontrunner in the Heisman Trophy race. Unlike Miles’ threats that never seem to materialize, the Tigers finally reversed a bad trend last year that had seen them regress each of the previous three years in the SEC West standings. Now, behind a team that won its first 7 contests last year, and with no back-to-back road games in sight this season, the Bengals have the distinct look of a tiger possessed.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Tigers’ seniors started a combined 34 games last season, the fewest in the nation.

PLAY ON: vs. Mississippi (10/22)

MISSISSIPPI (Offense – *3/0, Defense – 5/2, 61 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: FREEZER BURN

QB Chad Kelly, nephew of Buffalo Bills’ great Jim Kelly, and the SEC Newcomer of the Year and All-SEC second team selection last year, returns. Kelly broke or tied 14 single-season school records while leading the SEC in passing, total offense and TD passes. Meanwhile, head coach Hugh Freeze is the first Ole Miss coach to lead his teams to bowl appearances in each of his first 4 seasons at the helm. He’s also led the Rebels to back-to-back 9-win seasons for the first time since 1962. Unfortunately, the team was not only heavily burned by graduation losses and NFL player defections – the biggest being DT Robert Nkemdiche – but they must also take on 10 bowl teams.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Freeze is 28-4 SU and 21-6 ATS in games versus .500 or less opponents, including 11-0 ATS vs. non-conference foes.

PASS

MISSISSIPPI STATE (Offense – 6/3, Defense – 7/2, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NICE WHILE IT LASTED

After losing a quarterback that put up some of the most impressive numbers in SEC history, Mississippi State is in a pinch – in more ways than one. QB Dak Prescott has started for the Bulldogs each of the last 3 seasons, setting 28 school records, including total offensive yards, touchdowns, passing yards, passing touchdowns, passing efficiency, and on and on. Head coach Dan Mullen must also replace his rushing leader from last season – that also being Prescott. Worse, DC Manny Diaz left after one year to join Mark Richt at Miami. In addition, their leading tackler and best interior linemen have moved onto the NFL. Road games at Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss ensure a sizable step back in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulldogs were the worst team in the nation in fewest fumbles recovered (1) last season – 14 fewer than the top team.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Auburn (10/8)

TEXAS A&M (Offense – 6/2, Defense – 6/2, 50 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: OFFENSIVE MUSICAL MAKEOVER

Oklahoma graduate transfer Trevor Knight assumes the quarterback reins in 2016. Knight, who was beaten out by Baker Mayfield last year, was a 2-year starter and led the Sooners to a Sugar Bowl victory against Alabama as a redshirt freshman in 2013. The Aggies lost previous blue chip starting signal callers Kyle Allen (who transferred to Houston) and Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) earlier this offseason. Kevin Sumlin’s 2nd-highest-paid coaching staff has added new OC Noel Mazzone, who worked wonders with Brett Hundley and Josh Rosen at UCLA. Meanwhile, prized former LSU DC John Chavis helped tighten things up defensively in 2015 as the Aggies improved 71 YPG – despite taking on the 10th toughest schedule in the land.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The overall stats winner has won SU in each of the last 16 Aggies’ games.

PLAY ON: at Alabama (10/22)

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Betting Outlook
August 5, 2016


ACC Coastal Preview

In several recent seasons there have been some underwhelming ACC Coastal champions but last season North Carolina raised the bar for the division going 8-0 and giving Clemson a great battle in the championship game.

The Coastal won the ACC Championship four straight seasons from 2007-2010 but the Atlantic has been the powerhouse since and that is expected to be the case this season. There are a few Coastal squads with a chance to make some noise however.

FAVORITE: Miami, FL

The Hurricanes have failed to reach the double-digit win count that the stature of the program commands in 12 straight seasons. Mark Richt will be the fourth Miami head coach in that run and after sustained success at Georgia for 15 years he returns to his alma mater. The Hurricanes have the potential to have a strong 2016 season as the team will have a less demanding non-conference schedule than in several recent seasons and the ACC slate also lines up reasonably well. Miami won’t play Clemson or Louisville and the meeting with Florida State will be at home. A team that is just 4-7 in road games the past two seasons should have a chance to have stronger road results this season even though they have games in Blacksburg and South Bend in back-to-back October weeks. Miami’s roster is loaded with talent and experience on offense and the defense should have the opportunity to improve after a step-back 2015 season. Despite the coaching change Miami still wound up 8-5 last season with a 5-3 ACC record and the three conference losses came against teams that went a combined 23-1 in the ACC regular season.

CONTENDER: North Carolina

North Carolina went 8-0 in ACC play last season before losing in the championship game but they did draw a favorable path pulling NC State and Wake Forest from the Atlantic. Wake Forest is traded for Florida State this season but the Tar Heels are still a serious contender in this division. Three of North Carolina’s conference road wins came by slim margins last year and two of the four road games appear to be of the very difficult variety this season. A tough opening two weeks is also ahead with the Tar Heels facing Georgia and Illinois in non-conference action away from home and for a squad with a new quarterback and several departures on defense it will be difficult to match last season’s 11-3 campaign. North Carolina still allowed 436 yards per game last season and in the final four games of the season including the bowl loss to Baylor the Tar Heels surrendered 155 points as the defense will need to show improvement to keep UNC on top of the division.

SLEEPER: Virginia Tech

It will be a transition season with Justin Fuente replacing the legendary Frank Beamer for Virginia Tech. Fuente had a successful four-year run at Memphis and he has kept much of the defensive staff in tact from Beamer’s administration. The Hokies have two extremely difficult non-conference games as getting back to the national spotlight looks unlikely in 2016 but in Coastal division where 6-2 might be enough Virginia Tech has a promising opportunity to be in the mix. Virginia Tech draws Boston College and Syracuse from the Atlantic as they will avoid the heavyweight ACC contenders and while they have a few difficult road games in the division, the program has featured a winning road record in six of the last seven seasons. Fuente should be able to improve on a surprising 5-8 record in Blacksburg the past two seasons and keeping a long bowl streak for the program looks very realistic with the Hokies a possibility to emerge in the ACC race.

IMPROVED: Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets went from going 11-3 in 2014 to just 3-9 last season and Paul Johnson’s ninth-season in Atlanta looks likely to be a bounce-back campaign. Despite the ugly record the Yellow Jackets outscored their opposition on the season but wound up with six losses by eight or fewer points. A rise back to the top of the Coastal looks unlikely as they face a difficult conference road schedule, although one break is only facing three true ACC road games with the meeting with Boston College to open the season being played in Ireland. Facing Clemson as well as tough non-conference games with Vanderbilt and Georgia could temper the success to only modest improvement in 2016 but with a decent group of returning players getting back to the bowl picture looks realistic. The 2015 defense for Georgia Tech was significantly stronger statistically than the far more successful 2014 defense but the offense took a big step back and there is room for a step forward in 2016.

SINKING: Pittsburgh

The Panthers have had some tough luck with its coaching staffs bolting in recent years and after three seasona Paul Chryst left for the Wisconsin position prior to last season. Pat Narduzzi wound up having a successful first season with the Panthers going 8-5 in 2015 even after a disappointing bowl loss for the best Pittsburgh season since 2010, the year the team relieved Dave Wannstedt. The Panthers have decent experience returning on both sides of the ball in 2016 but a decline may be possible as the non-conference schedule will be upgraded with three formidable games ahead. In ACC play the Panthers also pick-up a road game with Clemson while also facing two top Coastal contenders North Carolina and Miami on the road. Four of six ACC wins last season came by seven or fewer points for Pittsburgh and on the season the Panthers barely had a positive point differential despite the solid record. Ultimately a lot went right for Pittsburgh last season and the 2016 squad looks like one that might teeter right on the bowl cut line.

ACC Atlantic Preview

The ACC Atlantic has produced five straight ACC champions with three Florida State titles in succession bookended by a Clemson title in 2011 and last season, with the Tigers and the 2014 Seminoles also making it to the College Football Playoff.

Those two teams appear to be the heavy favorites in 2016 with the October 29 meeting likely deciding this division, as well as deciding the likely ACC title favorite and a serious national contender.

FAVORITE: Florida State

While Clemson returns one of the top Heisman Trophy candidates in quarterback DeShaun Watson, Florida State should be consider the favorite in 2016 in the Atlantic. The Seminoles return nearly its entire offense from last season and the defense has a chance to improve for the second straight season and get closer to the numbers posted in 2013’s BCS Championship season. The schedule is far from easy with an opener in Orlando vs. Ole Miss plus road games at Louisville and at Miami but Florida State will host Clemson as well as the season finale with Florida. The Seminoles have enough weight in their schedule to be a national playoff contender even if they take a loss at some point provided they still win the division and the subsequent ACC title game with the Atlantic champion poised to be a solid favorite over whatever team emerges from the Coastal division.

CONTENDER: Clemson

The path for Clemson into the national picture might be more favorable as if the Tigers get by a tough opening game with Auburn on the road as they should be a solid favorite in every other game except for the huge late October clash in Tallahassee. While Dabo Swinney will return a good portion of the offense that led the team to a 14-1 season and runner-up finish in the College Football Playoff, the defense has some serious question marks. For the second straight season only a few starters return and despite the success last season, statistically the 2015 squad was much worse defensively than the 2014 team that suffered three losses. While the schedule will give Clemson a good shot at a sixth straight double-digit win season the two biggest games of the season are road games. The Coastal draw for the Tigers is more favorable than Florida State’s pull but ultimately it is hard to see the Atlantic champion not being the winner of the Clemson/Florida State game and the Tigers have won in Tallahassee once in 12 meetings since 1993.

SLEEPER: Louisville

The Cardinals were considered a national sleeper by some last season but they opened the season 0-3. Losing to Auburn proved to be a less impressive showing than expected last season but Houston and Clemson wound up being teams that combined to go 27-2 last season and Louisville lost those two games by three-points each. Bobby Petrino has an experienced roster and after juggling quarterbacks last season there should be more continuity for the offense this season. Louisville will play Florida State at home early in the season but there are tough road games ahead including challenging non-conference games with Marshall and Houston. In the Atlantic Louisville could have a chance however as they draw Duke and Virginia from the Coastal division and if they can score an upset over one of the top two teams they could have a chance to sneak into the division race even if running the table and being a player in the national picture looks unlikely.

IMPROVED: Wake Forest

After growing a Bowling Green program that has had continued success, Dave Clawson took a challenging job at Wake Forest before the 2014 season. Back-to-back 3-9 campaigns have been difficult but in his third season in Winston-Salem he will have a veteran roster and a schedule that should allow for improvement. The Demon Deacons figure to be favored in three of four non-conference games while ACC home games with Syracuse, Virginia, and Boston College are games Wake Forest should have a reasonable chance in even with a 2-14 combined record in the conference the past two seasons. Four of the team’s losses came by eight or fewer points last season and getting the program to a bowl game for the first time since 2011 looks like realistic possibility.

SINKING: NC State

While Jacoby Brissett didn’t wind up with quite the career some envisioned as a highly touted Florida transfer he was still a great college quarterback that will be missed for the Wolfpack. NC State has been in back-to-back owl games under Dave Doeren but each the past two seasons has featured 4-0 starts to the season through very weak non-conference schedules. This season NC State is hosting Notre Dame while also playing at known ACC upset-maker East Carolina as getting two thirds of the way to bowl eligibility in non-ACC games is unlikely this season. Add that NC State has pulled formidable Miami and North Carolina teams from the Coastal draw while also playing two of the three projected top Atlantic teams on the road it could be a challenging year in Raleigh. Doeren is just 6-18 in ACC play in three seasons and the Wolfpack will likely be dogged in at least five of eight ACC games this season.

[StarDust Bum]

STATS FCS Top 25: No. 1 Bison hungry for more
August 8, 2016

(STATS) - They've filled an entire hand with national championship rings.

Yet the North Dakota State Bison never allow themselves to become satisfied.

Not when there's a whole other hand to start filling this season.

Unsurprisingly, North Dakota State will enter the 2016 season as FCS' prohibitive favorite yet again. Having won an NCAA-record five straight national titles, the Bison earned 152 of the 158 first-place votes Monday in the STATS FCS Preseason Top 25.

Yes, it's still a Bison world until proven otherwise.

"To me, it's business as usual," said third-year coach Chris Klieman, whose team whipped Jacksonville State 37-10 in the national title game to finish 13-2 last season.

"Stay humble, stay hungry. We've got a long ways to go. What you did yesterday is great, but it pales in comparison to what you can do today. 2015 was dynamite; it's a new season, a new team and our goal is the same as it's always going to be and has been for a long time - be in the position to compete for the Missouri Valley Conference championship."

The Missouri Valley is regarded as the strongest conference in the FCS and North Dakota State has won at least a share of its last five titles. This year's team returns 14 starters and resolved any potential starting quarterback questions when Easton Stick went 8-0 last season while replacing an injured Carson Wentz.

Stick will have plenty of help, as NDSU will roll out its power run game, led by senior tailback King Frazier, complementing a defense that has been the best in the nation while the Bison have built their dynasty. Linebacker Nick DeLuca and defensive end Greg Menard lead this year's unit.

The Bison are followed in the Top 5 by Sam Houston State, which earned two first-place votes; Jacksonville State, which earned the other four; Richmond; and Northern Iowa. Over the past two postseasons, NDSU has knocked out all of them.

Last year, Southland Conference power Sam Houston (11-4) reached the national semifinals for the fourth time in five seasons before falling to Jacksonville State. Quarterback Jeremiah Briscoe will be at the controls of coach K.C. Keeler's Bearkats offense, which was top-ranked in the FCS last season.

Speaking of explosive offenses, Jacksonville State (13-2) returns All-America quarterback Eli Jenkins and top wide receiver Josh Barge. Plus, the two-time defending Ohio Valley Conference champions are motivated following their disappointing finish against North Dakota State.

"We did not give them our best shot, so we want to get back to that game and play well," coach John Grass said. "You can live with it if you played well, but we didn't. We have a hunger to get back there, but you have to take it week-by-week as each week is its own season."

Richmond (10-4) returns its quarterback, Kyle Lauletta, as well. But the Spiders, who earned a three-way share of the CAA Football title, are particularly well-rounded. They return eight starters on each side of the ball.

Northern Iowa (9-4) will butt heads with NDSU in the Missouri Valley, and the physical Panthers pose the biggest threat with two returning 1,000-yard rushers: quarterback Aaron Bailey and running back Tyvis Smith.

The rest of the Top 10 is No. 6 Chattanooga (9-4), which has won three straight Southern Conference titles; Charleston Southern (10-3), the defending Big South champ which opens the FCS season Aug. 27 against North Dakota State in the FCS Kickoff; South Dakota State (8-4) from the Missouri Valley; William & Mary (9-4), a defending CAA co-champ; and Illinois State (10-2), a defending Missouri Valley co-champ.

Defending Southland champ McNeese State (10-1) was No. 11, followed by James Madison (9-3), another CAA champ last season; Montana (8-5); Eastern Washington (6-5); The Citadel (9-4), which shared the Southern Conference title; Coastal Carolina (9-3), which is playing an independent schedule in its final season on the FCS level; Portland State (9-3); Northern Arizona (7-4); North Dakota (7-4); and Western Illinois (7-6).

Rounding out the Top 25 were No. 21 Colgate (9-4), the defending Patriot League champ; New Hampshire (7-5); Villanova (6-5); Towson (7-4); and North Carolina A&T (10-2), which won a share of the MEAC title.

The first teams outside the rankings were Youngstown State and Fordham.

The power conferences ruled the preseason Top 25 with the CAA collecting six selections, and the Big Sky and Missouri Valley gaining five apiece. Nine conferences had at least one representative.

A national panel of sports information and media relations directors, broadcasters, writers and other dignitaries select the STATS FCS Top 25. In the voting, a first-place vote is worth 25 points, a second-place vote 24 points, all the way down to one point for a 25th-place vote.

The Top 25 is released every Monday afternoon during the regular season, except for Sunday morning, Nov. 20, prior to the selection of the 24-team FCS playoff field. A final Top 25 will follow the FCS championship game, which will be held Jan. 7 in Frisco, Texas.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten West Predictions
August 9, 2016


Strictly from a scheduling perspective, I’m not sure if I can ever remember a team that goes into a season enjoying such a decisive advantage over the other contenders in its division than the one Iowa does in 2016.

Four of Iowa’s five road games are against opponents that had losing seasons last year. The toughest road assignment is at Penn State on Nov. 5, but the Hawkeyes have an open date in front of that showdown against a PSU squad that’s off a 7-6 campaign.

The draw from the Big Ten East doesn’t include two of the top three programs. Ohio State and Michigan State are absent from Iowa’s slate. Michigan is on the schedule, but the Wolverines have to come to Iowa City.

Perhaps most important, Iowa’s biggest challengers in the Big Ten West must come to Kinnick Stadium. This group includes Northwestern (10/1), Wisconsin (10/22) and Nebraska (11/25, for a Friday game on a short week).

On the flip side, Wisconsin plays all three of the big boys from the Big Ten East. Not only that, but the Badgers have to play in East Lansing and Ann Arbor in back-to-back weeks. Then they have an open date before hosting Ohio St.

Wisconsin has won at least 10 games in seven of its last 11 seasons. Furthermore, UW has at least nine victories in nine of the last 11 years. However, the Badgers will almost certainly be underdogs in five of their first seven games in 2016.

They open at Lambeau Field vs. LSU and most spots currently have the Tigers favored by 10 points. After a pair of easy wins at home over Akron and Georgia State, Wisconsin must navigate the aforementioned three-game gauntlet vs. the Big Ten East powerhouses. Next, it’s at Iowa before Nebraska at home and at Northwestern. Phil Steele ranks UW’s schedule as the nation’s ninth toughest and the most difficult of all teams in the Big Ten.

As for Nebraska, it has a tough non-conference game vs. Oregon, although it is in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers don’t have to meet the Michigan schools, but they play at Ohio State after going to Camp Randall the previous week. Not only does Mike Riley’s team face Wisconsin on the road, but it also has to play at Northwestern and, as noted earlier, at Iowa on a short week.

Northwestern has to play Michigan State and Ohio State, and both of those games are on the road. Meanwhile, Minnesota and Purdue don’t have any games against Michigan, Ohio State or Michigan State We know that’s irrelevant with the Boilermakers, who have just two Big Ten wins in the last three seasons. We’ll get to the Gophers below in our predictions.

1) Iowa: I’m all about Iowa to win the Big Ten West. I’ve seen those odds at even money, +130 and the best return I’ve seen is +150. Obviously, I’m more bullish on it according to the payout, but I still recommend it if even money is the best you can get. Likewise, I’m strong on Iowa ‘over’ 8.5 wins (-130 at The Westgate as of 8/8).

Kirk Ferentz’s squad went 12-2 last season, going undefeated in the regular season before dropping a 16-13 heartbreaker to Michigan State at the Big Ten Championship Game when the Spartans scored the game-winning points in the final minute. Iowa returns eight starters on defense and five on offense.

Senior quarterback C.J. Beathard was a second-team All Big Ten selection in ’15 when he completed 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,809 yards with a 17/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His favorite target Matt VandeBerg is back after hauling in 65 receptions for 703 yards and four TDs. Leading rusher Jordan Canzeri is gone, but LeShun Daniels (646 rushing yards & eight TDs) and Akrum Wadley (496 rushing yards & seven TDs) are back in the mix.

The defense allowed only 20.4 points per game in ’15 and might be better this year. Junior LB Josey Jewell had 126 tackles, three sacks, 4.5 tackles for loss, six passes broken up, four interceptions and two QB hurries last season. CB Desmond King is off a first-team All-American year in which he had 72 tackles, eight interceptions and 13 passes broken up. I can’t fathom the Hawkeyes not going at least 9-3 with the way their schedule sets up. I’ll call for a 10-2 mark.

2) Nebraska: Riley’s squad had a rocky first season, limping to a 6-7 record. However, there was a lot of bad luck. In fact, the Cornhuskers owned a +605 yardage advantage over their opponents for the season, but they were undone by a -11 turnover margin. Six of Nebraska’s seven defeats came in one-possession games. Four losses came by eight combined points. One loss came to BYU in the opener when the Cougars hit a Hail Mary on the game’s final play for a 33-28 victory. Despite the 5-7 regular season, Nebraska was given a bowl bid and closed the year on a positive note with a 37-29 win over UCLA.

The Cornhuskers bring back seven starters on offense and six on defense. Senior QB Tommy Armstrong threw for 3,030 yards and 22 TDs while also rushing for 400 yards and seven scores in ’15. However, he has to cut down on his interceptions after being picked off 16 times last year. Armstrong has a 53/36 career TD-INT ratio.

Armstrong has all of his receivers back, including Jordan Westerkamp, who had 65 catches for 918 yards and seven TDs last season. The defense returns five of its top six tacklers after giving up 27.8 PPG in ‘15.

Nebraska’s season win total is 8.5 shaded to the ‘over’ at a -130 price. It’s a pass for me as I see the Cornhuskers going 8-4.

3) Wisconsin: I have the Badgers starting the year 2-5, but they’ll finish strong with five consecutive victories. They went 10-3 in Paul Chryst’s first season, capturing a 23-21 win over Southern Cal at the Holiday Bowl.

UW returns six starters apiece on offense and defense. RB Corey Clement couldn’t stay healthy in ’15 after averaging 7.0 YPC in a back-up role as a freshman and a sophomore. The hope is that he’ll return to form. The QB position is a question mark, with senior Bart Houston as the leading candidate to win the starting job.

The defense lost DC Dave Aranda to LSU. Chryst filled that slot with Justin Wilcox, who comes from Boise State but has also served as DC at Tennessee, Washington and USC in the past. The Badgers’ defense in ’15 gave up only 13.7 PPG. Gamblers should check the status of LB T.J. Edwards, who was the team’s leading tackler last year but was recently injured. His status for LSU was ‘questionable’ at last check.

4) Minnesota: Minnesota finished 6-7 last season, winning only two Big Ten games over Purdue and Illinois. The Gophers return seven starters on offense and six on defense.

Senior QB Mitch Leidner has dealt with a foot injury for more than a year, but all reports out of Minneapolis have indicated that he’s looked healthy since practice started. He has 29 career starts to his credit with a 28/20 TD-INT ratio. Leidner has rushed for more than 1,000 career yards and had six rushing scores in ’15. His favorite target K.J. Maye (73 catches, 773 yards & five TDs) is gone, but all the other WRs are back along with the top two RBs.

The defense was respectable last season, allowing 25.2 PPG. However, this unit lost four of its top six tacklers. I believe the Gophers will go 7-5, losing at home to Iowa and in four of five road contests.

5) Northwestern: Following back-to-back 5-7 campaigns, Northwestern responded with a 10-3 record. The Wildcats won five one-possession games. The season was highlighted by a pair of non-conference wins vs. Stanford (16-6) and at Duke (19-10).

On the down side, all three defeats in ’15 were complete blowouts. Northwestern went to The Big House with a 5-0 record, only to get dealt cream-cheese treatment by Michigan in the form of a 38-0 bagel. The Wildcats were routed 40-10 at home by Iowa their next time out. Following a five-game winning streak to close the regular season, they took a 45-6 thumping from Tennessee at the Outback Bowl. Despite finishing seven games over .500, Northwestern had just a +106 yardage advantage over its foes for the season.

Pat Fitzgerald’s squad returns 12 starters, six on each side of the ball. Junior RB Justin Jackson was a second-team All Big Ten pick after rushing for 1,418 yards and five TDs as a sophomore. As a freshman, QB Clayton Thorson was thrust into a starting role and rushed for 397 yards and five TDs. He completed only 50.8 percent of his throws and had more interceptions (nine) than TD passes (seven), though.

The defense was sensational in ’15, surrendering only 18.6 PPG. This unit is led by junior LB Anthony Walker, who was a third-team All-American and a first-team All Big Ten selection after recording 122 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss, four sacks, two QB hurries and one interception. The secondary will be solid with safety Godwin Igwebuike (87 tackles) and CB Matthew Harris (48 tackles, four interceptions and 13 passes broken up).

Northwestern’s win total is 6.5 flat (-110 either way). I see the Wildcats starting strong again, winning their first four games. However, I have them losing at Iowa, at Michigan St., at Ohio St., vs. Wisconsin and at Minnesota.

6) Purdue: Darrell Hazell has compiled a 6-30 record during his three-year tenure at Purdue. The Boilermakers bring back 16 starters (eight on each side of the ball) from a 2-10 team that beat Indiana State and Nebraska. I have them going 2-10, beating Eastern Kentucky and Nevada at home, with Hazell taking a pink slip.

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Big Ten West - Best Bets
August 13, 2016


Illinois – UNDER 4.5 Wins
2015 Record - 5-7

The Illini came up with 5 wins last year and we look for this year’s team to take a step back. First of all, they have a brand new coaching staff which means new schemes on both sides of the ball. The feeling through/learning process usually takes a full year as teams under a new coach tend to improve quite a bit between years 1 & 2.

Lovie Smith is the new head man and he last coached in college in 1995. He inherits a fairly inexperienced team with just 11 starters returning and only 38 lettermen back (the least in the Big Ten). The offense last year was bad averaging only 17 PPG in conference play but the defense was actually pretty solid. The problem is, the Illini defense loses nearly everyone of importance including 6 of their top 7 tacklers so they are starting nearly from scratch on the side of the ball that was a positive last year. The D-Line should be solid but the defensive back 7 is a total rebuild. Wes Lunt is back at QB but he was OK at best (2,760 yards passing and just 14 TD’s last season) and he is going to have to operate behind a fairly new offensive line.

This team scored 20 or less in 6 of their 8 Big Ten games last year and we’re not sure new offensive coordinator Garrick McGee (formerly at Louisville) has the pieces in place to make a quick turnaround. There is a good chance the Illini go 1-2 in the non-conference as they play a very solid North Carolina team and the top team in the MAC, Western Michigan. If that happens they are in trouble. They play only 4 Big Ten home games (5 on the road) and must play both Michigan & Michigan State from the East Division. We think Illinois falls short of 5 wins this year.

Iowa – OVER 8.5 Wins
2015 Record - 12-0

Iowa was 12-0 in the regular season last year and nobody is really talking about this team. By no means do we think the Hawks can sweep the board again in the regular season as they did last year but they will still be very solid. We actually felt Iowa was overvalued for much of last year. They were actually outgained in 5 of their final 10 games but were lucky to be +11 in turnovers for the season. However, with this number set at just 8.5, we have to believe this Iowa team can get to 9 wins which is still a full 3 games less than what they won a year ago.

The schedule lays out very nicely for the Hawkeyes. They play 5 road games in the Big Ten but all against teams that had losing records last year (Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, and Penn State). They should roll through their non-conference slate (Miami Oh, North Dakota State, and Iowa State) meaning a 6-3 conference record puts them at 9 wins. They have the top returning QB in the conference in pass efficiency (CJ Beathard). If RB LeShun Daniels stays healthy (he was injured last year) he could be very good. The OL will be solid as it always is at Iowa. The defense returns 8 starters including their 12 of their top 15 tacklers. Again, we felt Iowa wasn’t as good as their record last year. However, they aren’t getting much respect here and they are good enough to get to 9 wins this season, especially the way the schedule lays out.

Minnesota – OVER 6 Wins
2015 Record - 5-7

The Gophs had 5 regular season wins last year but this season we feel their schedule will allow them to get to at least 6 wins with a strong chance they push it to 7. Last year they played both Michigan & Ohio State from the Big Ten East and this season they miss both along with Michigan State. They play host in all 3 of their non-conference games (Oregon St, Indiana St, and Colorado St) so they probably come out of that 3-0. They host both Rutgers and Purdue so that gets them to 5 wins. They have winnable road games at Maryland, at Illinois, and at Penn State along with a home tilt vs Northwestern.

QB Leidner returns for his 3rd year as a starter and has all of his key RB’s returning and all but one of his top WR’s. The offensive line is a work in progress but if they do progress up front, this team will be pretty good. Defensively they allowed 25 PPG last year and we would look for them to remain near that number this year. The offense should take a nice step forward under new OC Jacobs and we look for their numbers to improve by quite a bit in 2016. We like this team to definitely get to 6-6 at worst with a good change of 7-5 so we lean OVER.

Nebraska – UNDER 8.5 Wins
2015 Record - 5-7

The Huskers were much better than their 5-7 regular season record last season. They had an incredible 5 losses occur in the last seconds of the game and only once were the topped by double digits. They actually outgained their opponents by 47 YPG last season and had losses of 1, 2, 3, and 5 points. Nebraska will have a senior QB at the helm in Tommy Armstrong who has been a multiple year starter. They played one of their best offensive games of the season in their bowl game topping UCLA 37-29 rolling up 500 yards of total offense.

So after all of that, why do we like this one UNDER?

First of all the offensive line will be very green. The Huskers lose 3 starters up front and their entire offensive line will have just 24 combined starts entering the season which is one of the lowest totals in college football. Secondly, their defense was shaky at best last year allowing 400 YPG for the first time in 8 years. They now must replace their entire front 4. This isn’t the blackshirt defense of old. Lastly, they played conference road games at Ohio State, at Wisconsin, at Iowa, and at Northwestern. Going 0-4 in those games is not out of the question and where this number is set they can only afford to lose 3 games this season. Add home games vs Oregon and an under rated Minnesota team and a undefeated home season is not a guarantee. We look for an 8-4 season out of Nebraska which puts them UNDER this number.

Northwestern – OVER 6.5 Wins
2015 Record - 10-2

This team was not as good as their 10-3 record last year. Their 3 losses were blowouts as the Cats lost to Michigan, Iowa, and Tennessee by a combined score of 123-16! On the flip side, a number of their wins were down to the wire with single digit margins of 2, 2, 5, 6, 7, and 9 points. However, after winning 10 last year, this year’s number has been adjusted down to 6.5 which we now think has become too low. Our worst case scenario for the Cats is 6-6 with best case looking like 8-4.

That would have us leaning to the OVER. The defense was very good last year allowing only 18 PPG on 319 total YPG. They should be very solid again on that side of the ball with key contributors back at all 3 levels and almost 70% of their tackles returning. Offensively is where this team really needs to take a jump after averaging only 19 PPG last season. It puts too much pressure on the defense if they have to hold teams under 20 points each game to win. We look for a big improvement offensively with QB Thorson in his 2nd year as a starter, RB Jackson (1,400 yards rushing) and a solid offensive line back. We like Northwestern to get to at least 7 wins this year.

Purdue – UNDER 4.5 Wins
2015 Record - 2-10

This is a team that has won just 6 games in the last 3 years combined. Will they be improved this year? Possibly. Enough to get to 5 wins this year? We don’t think so. They do have 16 starters back which is more than any other team in the Big Ten. However, this team was bad on both sides of the ball last year allowing 458 YPG in Big Ten while gaining only 342 YPG offensively.

They will have to make a drastic improvement to get to 5 wins as they were just 2-10 last year. Their wins came over Indiana State (not a big deal) and Nebraska (Huskers outgained Boilers). Purdue has won only 2 of their last 24 Big Ten games and they’ll have to win at least 3 this year alone to get over this number. They have a “chance” to go 2-1 in the non-conference but that’s not a given. We have them losing at home to Cincinnati (a very good team this year) and a toss up game vs Nevada who is one of the better teams in the Mountain West.

They will be underdogs in all 4 of their Big Ten home games (Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn St, and Northwestern) so they will have to pick up some wins on the road this year. That might be tough for a team that is just 1-18 their last 3 seasons away from home. We just don’t see Purdue winning more than 4 games this year if they can even get to that number.

Wisconsin - UNDER 7 Wins
2015 Record - 9-3

The Badgers are a team that could actually be better than last year’s 9-3 regular season team but have a much worse record. Their schedule is brutal. Easily the toughest in the Big Ten and one of the top 3 toughest slates in the nation. Want to hear their opening 6 conference games? Try this…at Michigan State, at Michigan, Ohio State, at Iowa, Nebraska, and then at Northwestern. It probably won’t happen but it’s not completely out of the question this team starts 0-6 in the league. That doesn’t even count their season opener vs LSU.

All of that while trying to break in a brand new QB is not conducive to a good record. The offensive line will be very good. Much better than last year. RB Corey Clement missed most of last year and reports are he is back at full strength and should be one of the best backs on the nation. The QB will either be senior Bart Houston or redshirt freshman Alex Hornibrook. Houston has played a little bit and Hornibrook has never stepped foot into a college game. The defense should again be very solid and word is new DC Justin Wilcox (DC at USC last year) has done a very nice job thus far.

We see Wisconsin as a 6-6 team this year due to their schedule. It’s possible they could get to 7-5 which would be a push on the win total but we don’t see how this team gets to 8 wins. If this team has last year’s schedule we’re probably looking at double digit wins. Not this year as they are underdogs to LSU to open the year and will most likely be getting points in their first 5 Big Ten games.

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C-USA Outlook - West
August 10, 2016


Conference USA - West Division Preview

Following is our a look at Conference USA, first previewing the West half of the loop before taking a look at the East in our next installment. Once again, teams are presented in order of predicted finish, with 2015 SU, pointspread, and O/U records included...

Perhaps the closest thing to a perennial power in Conference USA has been Louisiana Tech (2015 SUR 9-4, PSR 7-6, O/U 8-5), which has quietly cranked out at least eight wins in four of the past five seasons and romped to its second postseason win in a row last December when walloping Arkansas State in the New Orleans Bowl, 12 months after burying Illinois in the Dallas Bowl. Considering the questionable status of the rest of the Western half of the loop, another bowl trip appears likely even with a demanding non-conference slate (more on that in a moment) and some considerable reloading to do after losing various key cogs to graduation.

One key cog that has stuck around, however, is HC Skip Holtz, who seems to have found a home in Ruston. While Holtz might still have a chance re-climb the coaching ladder at a “Big Five” conference school down the road, for the time being he seems content at Tech after being whip-sawed out of his last gig at South Florida. With plenty of security at Tech, Holtz appears in no hurry to leave, and seems very unlikely to make a move similar to Southern Miss’ Todd Monken, who bailed out last winter to take a job on the staff of the NFL Tampa Bay Bucs.

(Besides, the NFL and the Holtz family don’t seem to mix, as those of us old enough to remember papa Lou’s one disastrous season with the New York Jets in 1976 before heading back to the college ranks at Arkansas, know. So we don’t think Bulldog fans have to worry about Skip doing a “Todd Monken” anytime soon.)

Admittedly, however, the fact we are placing Tech on top of its division of C-USA has a much to do with the plight of the other entries in the Western half all having as many or more questions than the Bulldogs. With half of the West also employing new head coaches this fall, the relative stability Holtz provides Tech must be viewed as a positive for the Ruston bunch, too.

Holtz, who has done a nice job resurrecting his career at Tech, nonetheless has some significant questions to answer entering this season. A potent offense that ranked in the top 20 nationally in scoring (37.5 ppg) must replace a pair of NFL draftees in productive QB Jeff Driskel and decorated RB Kenneth Dixon, the latter a TD machine who was a fourth-round pick of the Ravens last April. Dixon’s 87 career TDs will be almost impossible for one player to replace, as Holtz and new o.c. Todd Fitch likely to employ a RB-by-committee approach, with jr. waterbug Boston Scott (who gained 8.1 ypc in limited work last season that included a 77-yard run in the bowl win) the most likely to get extra carries.

The QB position, however, is drawing the most scrutiny after Holtz was blessed with grad transfers Cody Sokol (via Iowa) and Driskel (via Florida) the last two seasons. Driskel, a sixth-round pick of the 49ers, passed for over 4000 yards and 27 TDs last year out of the Holtz spread, but expected replacement jr. Ryan Higgins is not a greenhorn, having started six games pre-Sokol and Driskel, way back in 2013, when injuries decimated the QB position for Skip’s first Bulldog edition. Higgins understandably struggled (just 6 TDP and 13 picks) when thrown in the fire as a frosh, but is now three years older and well-versed in the Holtz offense.

Moreover, the versatile Higgins, who solidified his starting status in spring, is comfy in the read-option, though his primary task will be to get the ball in the hands of an experienced receiving corps which returns three starters including glue-fingered slot man Trent Taylor (99 catches last season) and deep threat wide man Carlos Henderson (21.5 yards per reception in 2015). Utah transfer Alfred Smith is another Henderson-like speedburner who along with soph returnee Kam McKnight were the main storylines of the spring game when combining for 226 yards worth of receptions. The line is in good shape with three returning starters plus G Kirby Watson, a starter in 2014 who missed all of 2015 due to injury.

While most C-USA observers believe the offense will not drop off too much from recent editions, especially if QB Higgins is up to the task, there are question about a “D” that lost eight starters from one of the better stop units in the conference. Very difficult to replace will be star DT Vernon Butler, a 1st-round NFL draft pick of the Carolina Panthers and a main reason the Bulldogs were able to rank 13th nationally vs. the run a year ago.

Transfers, including ex-Arizona State CB Ronald Lewis, ex-Hawaii CB Jerrell Jackson, and juco S DeMarion King, all figure to get a chance to play in a hurry in the secondary around SS Xavier Woods, an All-CUSA pick as a frosh. The Butler-less DL returns starting DEs Aaron Brown and Deldrick Canty. The real concern for d.c. Blake Baker is a completely new LB corps that will be counting heavily upon RS frosh Donald Scott and Collin Scott to step into the mix and deliver right away.

Tech has dealt with tough non-league schedules before and this season will be no different, as the Bulldogs figure to be substantial road underdogs in September dates at Arkansas and Texas Tech. Early league tests at Middle Tennessee and at home vs. Western Kentucky will prove more enlightening regarding any expected challenge for conference honors. The West title might eventual come down to a season-ending showdown vs. Southern Miss, a game in which Holtz should have no trouble getting the Bulldogs ready after the Golden Eagles won 58-24 at Ruston last November.

Spread-wise, remember that Holtz was highly successful in a dog role a decade ago at East Carolina and is 6-1 as the “short” the past two seasons. After covering 8 of 9 away from Joe Aillet Stadium in 2014, the Bulldogs only covered 2 of 6 on the road last season, though Skip’s two-year overall spread mark is a solid 18-9.

Fans at Southern Miss (2015 SUR 9-5, PSR 10-4, O/U 6-8) were reminded once again of their place in college football’s pecking order after HC Todd Monken abruptly left his post for a chance to return to the NFL, this time on the Tampa Bay Bucs staff, after the Golden Eagles forged an uplifting breakthrough campaign last fall. Though Monken’s surprise departure should not be equated with other disappearing acts into the night, like when the Colts abandoned Baltimore in the dead of night in early 1984 and headed to Indianapolis. After all, it’s not often that coaches have a chance to make a move from Hattiesburg straight into the NFL and a coordinator’s gig. Moreover, Monken has NFL roots and a connection to new Tampa Bay HC Dirk Koetter, with whom Monken served on the Jacksonville Jaguars staff between 2007-10. Even the most diehard USM boosters did not begrudge Monken for his move.

Rather than look on staff for Monken’s replacement, however, the Golden Eagles turned to Jay Hopson, who most recently had resurrected the fortunes at Alcorn State as the HC of the Braves. Hopson also has USM roots, having served two stints on Jeff Bower’s staffs between 2001-03 and 2005-07, so he is not completely unfamiliar with Roberts Stadium and Hattiesburg.

Thus, Golden Eagles fans have a bit better feel about the new braintrust than they did four years ago, when the program collapsed under Ellis Johnson, a decorated defensive coordinator who had failed in previous HC attempts and did the same at Hattiesburg, losing all 12 games in 2012 after Larry Fedora high-tailed it to North Carolina. The program had been destructed in short order before Monken arrived in 2013 and began to slowly put the pieces together, resulting in last year’s crown in the West half of the loop and a berth in the Dallas Bowl. Along with Monken’s move, o.c. du jour Chip Lindsey was also targeted and took a big pay raise to assume the same role at Arizona State.

Hopson, and new o.c. Shannon Dawson (who was dismissed at Kentucky after last season), both have roots in the “Air Raid” so don’t expect too many schematic changes in the Golden Eagle offense that would dramatically more than double its per game scoring output last year, up to a whopping 39.9 ppg, ranking 13th in the country. Moreover, the trigger-man of the renaissance, QB Nick Mullens, returns for his senior season after passing for a whopping 4476 yards and 38 TDs a year ago. Thus, changing much of the offensive philosophy would seem ill-advised.

Mullens, a four-year starter and last year’s C-USA Offensive MVP, has several of his key weapons returning around him, including jitterbug RB Ito Smith, who bounced for 1128 YR in the balanced Golden Eagle “O” that would rank 12th nationally last season. The OL is long in the tooth with three multi-year starters led by C Cameron Tom, an All-CUSA selection.

Another plus for Mullens is the return of sr. WR D.J. Thompson, who caught a hefty 55 passes a year ago. Former Middle Tennessee and juco transfer Shannon Smith has big-play potential that was flashed in spring, while holdover soph Korey Robertson is expected to make contributions.

The defense will have more overt changes from the platoon that provided almost equal improvement to the offense a year ago when the Golden Eagles ranked first in C-USA in yards allowed. Hopson, however, has brought in his own d.c., Tony Pecoraro, who plans to transition USM from its traditional 4-3 base alignments into a more multiple scheme featuring 3-3-5 and 4-2-5 looks. Last year’s coordinator, David Duggan, who oversaw the dramatic upgrades, has been reassigned to coach the LBs.

Many of the headliners from last year’s defense, including leading tackler sr. D’Nerius Antoine, who flourished last season at FS but was moved to OLB in spring, top pass rusher sr. DE Dylan Bradley, and a pair of stalwarts in the secondary, jr. CB Cornell Armstrong and all-name DD Picasso Nelson, Jr., remain in the fold. Like Antoine, however, Bradley was also position-switched in spring, moved to DT by the new staff, causing some C-USA observers to wonder if Hopson and Pecoraro might be doing a bit too much tampering with what was a pretty good thing last fall. Time will tell.

One area that could use some upgrading is on special teams, where sr. PK Stephen Brauchle missed four PATs and his only FG try beyond 40 yards last season. Meanwhile, sr. P Tyler Sarazin hit more line drives last fall than Ichiro Suzuki, as only one of his 45 punts resulted in a fair catch.

The schedule includes two non-league road games at SEC entries, but the Golden Eagles think they have a shot in the opener at Kentucky, where o.c. Dawson returns with a score to settle with Mark Stoops. A midseason trip to LSU will prove a more difficult assignment. USM might also be favored in all of its C-USA games and gets only Marshall among the top contenders from the East half. Thus, another bowl visit is a minimum expectation this fall, though we wonder about the various staff and scheme changes on “D” that might make it hard to replicate last season’s nine wins and C-USA West crown.

Spread-wise, Monken forged quite a turnaround last season, as the Golden Eagles improved to 10-4 vs. the number after covering just 7 of 24 tries in Monken’s first two campaigns. The Golden Eagles also handled several big numbers last season en route to a 7-1 mark as chalk.

Longtime fans at Rice (2015 SUR 5-7, PSR 5-7, O/U 7-5) have seen worse than the late-season collapse last fall that broke the Owls’ three-year bowl streak. After all, this was a program that went 45 years between 1961-2006 without going to a bowl and did not record a winning record for the entirety of the ‘70s or ‘80s. So, for those Rice fans who can vividly recall the Gemini and Apollo space programs and the heyday of crosstown Mission Control, last year’s fade was no big deal. But new-age Owl backers who have been used to some degrees of success in the HC David Bailiff era could be excused for voicing their displeasure when last season would unravel after a promising beginning.

It wasn’t just that 2015 took a nosedive for the Owls, it was the manner of their late-season collapse that alarmed the handful of loyal backers of the second-smallest FBS school (only Tulsa being smaller enrollment-wise). Though having the excuse of being injury-riddled, the Rice defense nonetheless collapsed down the stretch last season, reaching its nadir when on the wrong end of a 65-10 bombing by Southern Miss in mid-November. When the dust had cleared, the Owls ranked a nation’s worst in yards per play defense (7.1 ypp), while also finishing near the bottom of national stats in sacks (ranking a poor 111th with a mere 16) and with only two interceptions, part of a measly 10 takeaways, which tied for last in the country.

Obviously, Rice has a crying need for playmakers on its traditionally undersized defense, though again, the spate of injuries a year ago had something to do with the downturn. Bailiff was forced to use 31 true or redshirt frosh in 2015, the highest such mark in the country.

As usual, the Owls’ best chance is to simply outscore foes, but that might be a bit more difficult after the departure of longtime QB Driphus Jackson. Senior Tyler Stehling, Jackson’s caddy the past two years, gets his one shot at running the offense this fall after limited work a year ago when competing 24 of 48 passes for 320 yards and 2 TDs in five games. The 6'6 Stehling is regarded as an accurate passer and is not afraid to move out of the pocket, but he does not quite bring the mobility that allowed Jackson to run some read-option the past two years. Instead, the Owls expected to run more uptempo this season after Bailiff switched assignments for some of his offensive assistants, with Billy Lynch assuming play-calling duties and Larry Edmondson concentrates on the QBs in Rice’s unique co.-o.c. arrangement.

Though the Owls are expected to play at a faster pace, the infantry component is not likely to be abandoned after Rice has been consistently able to balance its offense in recent years. In fact, the run might become more integral this fall with the top four RBs still in the fold from a year ago, including 215-lb. sr. slasher Darik Dillard, who has accounted for more than 1300 yards plus 16 TDs the past two seasons. The ability to establish the run also allows Rice to play a bit more ball control and keep its vulnerable defense off of the field. Three starters return on the OL, including soph tackles Calvin Anderson and Sam Pierce, who had to grow up quickly a year ago when thrown into the fire as frosh.

Still, Stehling rates as a bit of an unknown especially in comparison to predecessor Jackson, who was able to get the ball downfield and into the hands of his receivers with some consistency. There is experience among the passing targets, with sr. WR Zach Wright (39 catches LY) the leading receiver in 2015, while jr. WR Temi Alaka and sr. TE Connor Celia are other returning starters.

Bailiff also is casting a wary eye upon his kicking game, especially with former walk-on PK Hayden Tobola making just 8 of his 13 FG tries a year ago. Moreover, effective P James Farrimond has graduated, though soph replacement Jack Fox reportedly has a strong leg.

Of course, getting back to a bowl will require a better showing on defense after last season’s meltdown. Beleaguered coordinator Chris Thurmond is hoping that the experience forged by fire due to injuries last fall will provide him with more capable depth as eight starters return to the defensive fold. For what it’s worth, Bailiff claims to be impressed with the platoon’s athleticism, speed, and ability to tackle well in space, though Rice could do no better than hold foes to 36 ppg last season, tied for a poor 108th in the nation.

The DL rotation, mostly comprised of frosh a year ago, simply must generate more QB pressure. Junior DE Grayson Schantz, who missed all but one game last season due to a torn ACL, is expected to help juice the pass rush. The pivot point of the platoon is sr. MLB Alex Lyons, who has led the Owls in tackles each of the past two seasons. Thurmond experimented with some position switches in spring, including sr. Tabari McCaskey, moved from OLB to SS, a change expected to stick into the regular season.

Despite last season’s fade, the Owls did not exactly fall off of the map with five wins, and they’ve won a respectable 30 games since 2012, the most in a four-year span in school history. They’ve also opened up a new $31 million football center in one of the endzones at the refurbished Rice Stadium, now downsized to 47,000 seats but still offering some of the best sightlines in college football. With the exception of a Sept. 17 visit by Baylor, Rice figures to have a chance to win the other five home games in its new-look stadium, though the road slate is treacherous, with trips to C-USA powers Western Kentucky, Southern Miss, and La Tech, plus a season-ender at Pac-12 heavyweight Stanford. Still, there appear to be enough winnable dates for the Owls to once again get bowl-eligible.

Spread-wise, Bailiff has often delivered impressive marks in his nine years on the job, and had covered 27 times over a 38-game stretch into early last season before the Owls dropped 7 of their last 9 vs. the number. Bailiff has been able to take care of business lately as home chalk, covering 12 of 16 in that role since 2012.

It’s not easy getting to back-to-back bowls at UTEP (2015 SUR 5-7, PSR 6-6, O/U 4-8), which has turned that trick only once in the past 61 years, when Mike Price took his first two Miner editions into the postseason in 2004 & ‘05. So, using that as context, perhaps there should be no alarms going off at the Sun Bowl after HC Sean Kugler was unable to follow up the 2014 New Mexico Bowl qualifier with another bowl visit last season.

Still, the plight of the UTEPs of the college football world was underlined quite nicely, unfortunately so, by the 2015 Miners, who could not sustain a move to the .500 mark with a rash of injuries that exposed the lack of depth that often hinders programs in the lower reaches of the FBS ranks. Though considering how the QB position, among others, was impacted, perhaps Kugler did well to get to five wins, especially with an offense that would rank a poor 112th (at a mere 20.7 ppg) in scoring. Along the way, Kugler’s team demonstrated some scrap, winning three games by exactly three points.

Entering his fourth season at his alma mater, Kugler does seem to have progressed the program from the deteriorating hulk he inherited from Price in 2013. Still, there is a bit of unease in the border town, where locals who cheer for the AAA Chihuahuas of of the PCL during baseball season believe Kugler might be the coach to finally lend stability and success to the program. Others, however, noting that Kugler is well-regarded in the profession and has past experience in the NFL ranks, wonder if Kugler might soon take the Todd Monken route out of C-USA and back to the pro ranks if the opportunity should arise. Stay tuned for further developments.

In the meantime, the Miners seem to have a fighting chance to get back into the bowl mix, but only if Kugler can find some continuity at the QB position. Mack Leftwich, who took most of the snaps last fall, was lost for the season in spring due to an arm injury, and 2015 backups Ryan Metz and Kavika Johnson were less than convincing in their spring work. There is a new option, Fresno State graduate transfer Zack Greenlee, who made a handful of starts for the Bulldogs and has two years of eligibility remaining. Greenlee, however, left much to be desired with his performances in Fresno. Thus, Kugler enters fall camp without a clear idea who will be taking snaps for the opener vs. New Mexico State on September 3.

On what appears to be the plus side, Kugler, calling on past coaching contacts, in particular the Fiesta Bowl-winning Boise State staff on which he served in 2006, dialed up old friend Brent Pease, also on that Broncos staff, to take over as offensive coordinator. While Pease works on sorting out the QB mess, he can call upon slashing RB Aaron Jones, who gained 1314 YR in 2014 before missing almost all of last season with an ankle injury. The top receivers from 2015 all return, including wideouts Jaquan White and Tyler Batson, who combined for 78 receptions a year ago. There is a behemoth, Arkansas-sized OL averaging 320 pounds that has ample experience with three returning starters and the most NFL-looking player on the roster in 330-lb. RT Jerrod Brooks. Touted juco transfer Tanner Stallings is slated to start at the C spot.

The new coordinator theme continues on defense with the addition of vet d.c. Tom Mason, most recently at Hawaii but before that having established his credentials with June Jones at SMU and Pat Hill at Fresno State. Mason, looking forward to some calm after being part of staffs where the head coaches (Jones at SMU in 2014, and Norm Chow at Hawaii last season) changed during the season the past two years, will be altering things on the stop end, importing his time-tested 3-4 alignment to replace the 4-2-5, intent on installing his “fire-blitz” schemes that have blitzed on approximately 70% of plays the past few seasons.

Mason’s blitzing might be extra risky with a secondary that has been exploited routinely in recent years and ranked a poor 110th in pass defense a year ago. Getting back 2014 All-CUSA SS Devin Cockrell, who missed last season with injury, adds a potential anchor to the defensive backfield. There is plenty of experience surrounding Cockrell, most of it from being thrown into the fire due to injuries a year ago. The other projected first-stringers in the secondary have 19 starts between them.

Though eight players return to the "D" with starting experience, Mason was doing plenty of juggling in the spring with position changes designed to better fit the new 3-4 looks. Former DTs Brian Madunezim and Mike Sota have both been moved to DE to flank NG Gino Breselin, who will be a third-year starter in the fall. Some of the DEs from 2015 have been switched to OLB spots in the new scheme. Last year’s leading tackler Alvin Jones anchors the LB group from his position on the inside.

A year ago, the Miners were not helped by playing just five games in the Sun Bowl, but this season will have the benefit of seven home games, with winnable non-conference dates vs. nearby NMSU and Army sandwiched around a trip to Texas, and FCS Houston Baptist perhaps providing a W that will be valuable for bowl candidacy. If UTEP can avoid last year’s rash of injuries and new o.c. Pease steers some consistency out of his available QBs, a return to the postseason mix is not out of the question.

Spread-wise, Kugler has made a nice fortress out of the Sun Bowl, where the Miners are 7-2-1 vs. the line the past two years. UTEP also covered 5 of its last 6 a year ago after the bottom seemed to drop out of the season following embarrassing back-to-back losses to UTSA and FIU, suggesting some real resilience within the Miner ranks.

No one in Denton would complain if they could simply walk everything back and forget last season at North Texas (2015 SUR 1-11, PSR 4-8, O/U 5-7), where the campaign became a train wreck by Columbus Day and prompted the in-season dismissal of sour HC Dan McCarney. The Mean Green team could not have pretended any better to be sabotaging its much-disliked coach when refusing to compete in the homecoming game vs. Big Sky Portland State, which roared to a 45-0 halftime lead and stretched the margin to 66-0 before UNT averted a shutout in the final two minutes. The decision to can McCarney was probably reached by halftime but administrators would wait until the game concluded before un-apologetically hitting the eject button on their head coach.

The Mean Green could have been excused for humming the “Wicked Witch is Dead” tune from the Wizard of Oz in the wake of McCarney’s ouster, and did become more competitive thereafter under o.c. and interim HC Mike Canales, who had pulled similar duty a few years before when McCarney predecessor Todd Dodge was also a midseason casualty. UNT actually covered the spread in four of its last seven games and would notch its lone straight-up W of the season when topping UTSA at futuristic Apogee Stadium, 30-23. Though Canales, who deserved an award for keeping the UNT ship afloat as he did following Dodge’s dismissal five years earlier, was not retained and has landed on the staff of Matt Wells at Utah State.

Still, a thorough housecleaning was in order just two years after UNT would record a 9-4 SU mark and win the Dallas Bowl over UNLV. Stepping into the breach is the well-regarded Seth Littrell, most recently o.c. for Larry Fedora at North Carolina and the Tar Heels, who would rank in the top ten nationally in scoring last season. Though some wondered why the 37-year-old Littrell would take the Mean Green job, others have correctly pointed out that UNT, due to its resources and location at the north end of the talent-rich DFW Metroplex, is in fact an ideal stepping-stone position, and that it should not take long for the right coach to win at Denton in C-USA.

Whether that happens this season is open to conjecture, however, as the Littrell spread would appear a poor fit for the inherited talent recruited to run a pro-style offense during the McCarney years. But the Mean Green plans to wing it for Littrell and his o.c. Graham Harrell, another Air Raid disciple dating from his days as a QB for Mike Leach at Texas Tech and most recently on the Leach staffs at Washington State.

The first dilemma for Littrell and Harrell is to find a QB to run the Air Raid. At the outset, look for Alabama grad transfer Alec Morris, who couldn’t advance beyond third string at Tuscaloosa the past couple of years, to take the snaps. Morris does not have many established targets on hand; jr. Turner Smiley is the only returning wideout who caught more than 15 passes a year ago (Smiley caught all of 25). But, the McCarney offense wasn’t exactly designed to pile up the aerial stats, ranking 126th in passing efficiency a year ago. C-USA sources suggest that some of the untested wideouts from last season, such as potential big-play threat soph Tee Goree, might emerge as surprising weapons.

Littrell does inherit a quality RB, jr. Jeffrey Wilson, who gained 830 YR a year ago as well as a decent receiver out of the backfield, and also perhaps the bridge between the past UNT offense and the new one. Scatback Willy Ivery gained 6.6 ypc a year ago and provides a nice change-of-pace. A combination of transfers and young charges hope to form a cohesive OL around a couple of returning starters, including C Kaydon Kirby, who missed spring after the passing of his father but is expected back in the fall.

Unfortunately for Littrell, the stop unit he inherits in Denton was even worse a year ago than the offense, allowing a whopping 41.3 ppg and ranking in triple digits in every meaningful defensive category. New d.c. Mike Ekeler, used to working with more talent after career stops at Georgia, Nebraska, USC, and LSU, has reckoned (correctly, it would seem) that there is not enough DL manpower on hand to effectively run the Mean Green’s old 4-3. Thus, springtime was spent installing the new-look 3-4 with lots of nickel packages that appears a better fit with an overflow of secondary components on hand. Four starters return in the defensive backfield, and safeties James Gray and Kishawn McClain were UNT’s leading tacklers a year ago.

Gray and McClain, however, were required to make over 100 tackles each a year ago, suggesting bigger problems up front, especially a rush defense that was one of the worst in the country when allowing a whopping 240 ypg. The new-look “D” will feature hybrid positions at DE/LB and LB/nickel back. Jucos Josh Wheeler and Eji Ejiya and even true frosh William Johnson are expect to make major contributions in those roles and provide support around sr. LB Fred Scott, one of six returning starters on the platoon.

The Mean Green enters 2016 flying well under the radar, but aside from a mid-September trip to Florida does not look to be that overmatched in the rest of its non-league slate. Of course, how quickly the new Littrell offense begins to click, or resemble clicking, and how much improvement the new schemes provide on defense will determine whatever level of upgrade UNT achieves from a year ago. After losing 66-7 to Portland State last October, it would be hard drop much lower.

Spread-wise, the Mean Green would lose 13 of its last 17 on the board under McCarney before making the aforementioned mild recovery down the stretch a year ago under Canales. Still, UNT was only 8-16 vs. the number the past two seasons, including 5-13 its last 18 as a dog. As mentioned before, there’s nowhere to go but up for Littrell and the rest of his new staff in Denton.

They like their football in the state of Texas, even at a relatively-new gridiron outpost such as UTSA (2015 SUR 3-9, PSR 5-7, O/U 7-5). Much like their counterparts elsewhere in the Lone Star State, the Roadrunner backers also want to win now, and the thank you they gave program architect HC Larry Coker for getting UTSA football off the ground after a 2011 debut was forcing him out after two consecutive disappointing seasons.

In retrospect, Coker devoted much energy to getting the program competitive ASAP, and his collection of transfers and jucos would get the Roadrunners up to speed by year three, when they would fashion a 7-5 SU mark and a 5-3 record in their first year of C-USA competition. Unfortunately, much of the core of the team would graduate after 2013, and the next wave of replenishments had to hit the ground running in 2014 & ‘15. On occasion, the Roadrunners would compete, but after getting the locals excited in 2013, the recent dropoff proved a letdown.

Tasked with helping the program reach the next level is new HC Frank Wilson, hired away from LSU, where he served as the RB coach for Les Miles. Wilson, rumored for several jobs the past couple of years, has a reputation as a top-flight recruiter, but has never been a head coach in his career. Thus, we are a bit reluctant to forecast a big upgrade for the Roadrunners, remembering how another recent LSU RB coach, Larry Porter, with credentials much the same as Wilson’s, would fail miserably in a disastrous 2-year head coaching stint at Memphis.

Wilson’s first task is to pump some life into a listless offense that would rank 104th in scoring (just 22.6 ppg) a year ago. Fortunately for Wilson, grad transfer QB Jared Johnson arrives from Stephen F Austin after earning Southland Conference Offensive MVP honors a year ago. While with the Bearkats, Johnson passed for 5352 yards and ran for another 1601, and allows Wilson and his new o.c. Frank Scelfo to utilize some read-option packages if they so desire. Of course, jr. Dalton Sturm is still in the mix after taking the majority of the snaps last season and passing for 1354 yards and 13 TDs. Wilson thus has what seems are two decent options to run the offense.

There are also supporting weapons in place, including sr. RB Jarveon Williams, who banged his way to 1042 YR last fall despite fighting thru injuries that would cause him to miss the finale vs. MTSU. With Williams doing the heavy-duty work, UTSA would run the ball over 50% of the time a year ago, and Wilson’s roots at run-happy LSU suggest the infantry will also be featured this fall at the Alamodome. Last year’s leading receiver, wideout Kerry Thomas, Jr., returns after catching 52 passes, though replacing key TE David Morgan (NFL Vikings sixth-round pick) might not be easy.

Three starters are back along an OL that did a decent job opening holes for Williams and other RBs but needs to shore up its pass blocking after allowing 44 sacks a year ago. Wilson will also need better production from PK Daniel Portillo, who was just 1-for-7 on FG tries beyond 40 yards and missed 5 PATs last season.

Wilson and new d.c. Pete Golding plan to temporarily keep the stop unit’s existing 4-2-5 looks, utilized in the Coker regime, for at least one more season as it still appears the best fit for the personnel on hand. The strength on the stop side figures to be the DL which returns three of four starters from a platoon that held its own vs. the run but was often torched thru the air a year ago. Watch the progress of 6'6 DE Marcus Davenport, who has All-CUSA potential if he can add a bit more weight and strength to his frame.

There are concerns, however, across the back seven, where playmakers need to emerge at the LB spots, and where newcomers will be starting on both corners. There is some experience in the secondary, however, where safeties Michael Egwuaga and Nate Gaines combined for six picks a year ago, and where a starter at a safety spot in 2014, Chase Dahlquist, returns to active duty after missing all of 2015 due to injury. Still, upgrades are required for what was the lowest-ranked C-USA pass defense and the 117th nationally vs. the pass a year ago.

Aside from the opener vs. Alabama State, the Roadrunners are going to be significant underdogs in their other non-league games at Colorado State, home vs. Arizona State, and at Texas A&M. Yet there are what appears to be some winnable dates in C-USA. Still, Wilson’s credentials as a head coach are unknown, and he must sort out the QB situation while hoping to forge some upgrades on defense for the ‘runners to improve upon last year’s 3 wins. That might be a challenge.

Spread-wise, Coker’s teams were underperforming on the road the past two seasons, covering just 3 of 11 chances away from the Alamodome, and were just 7-15 vs. the number their last 22 on board. Those numbers do not present much of a bar for Wilson’s first edition to clear.

[StarDust Bum]

C-USA Outlook - East
August 10, 2016

Conference USA - East Division Preview

After previewing the West half of Conference USA in our previous installment, we focus on the East half of the loop, Once again, teams are presented in order of predicted finish, with 2015 SU, pointspread, and O/U records included...

Where has the time gone? It doesn’t seem so long ago that we knew of Rick Stockstill as the QB of the first powerhouse Bobby Bowden teams at Florida State. That, however, is now close to 40 years in the rear-view mirror. It also doesn’t seem as if Stockstill has been the HC for the past ten years at Middle Tennessee (2015 SUR 7-6, PSR 8-5, O/U 5-8), which in that span has made the move from the Sun Belt to C-USA and become bowl-eligible (though not necessarily bowl-selected) in six of the past seven seasons.

As for Stockstill, he seems content in Murfreesboro after a few dalliances with other jobs, including East Carolina a few years ago. It makes sense; the Blue Raider program has been on the move, and seems poised to make another move up the ladder, perhaps to the American should expansion elsewhere heist a few schools from that league. As Stockstill has stayed at MTSU, Murfreesboro has also grown along with the Blue Raider program, with the area now considered on the periphery of Nashville metro. Less than an hour from a major airport in Music City, MTSU is also conveniently located, with the ability to draw recruits from the region. The Blue Raider gig is now a pretty good one, which Stockstill seems to realize.

Maintaining recent momentum looks a good possibility because of another Stockstill, Rick’s son Brent, now a soph QB who came within 52 yards of Jameis Winston’s NCAA frosh record for passing yardage a year ago, when Brent recorded a whopping 4005 YP and the Blue Raiders fielded their most prolific offense in school history. After scoring 34 ppg, MTSU does not figure to take a step back with new/old o.c. Tony Franklin, a Hal Mumme and Mike Leach disciple who is well-versed in all aspects of the spread offense and is now on a second tour of duty in Murfreesboro after recent stints at La Tech and Cal.

Franklin’s go-go offense works best with a deep rotation of wideouts in 4-WR looks. Soph Richie James, who caught a staggering 108 passes last season, and freakish athlete 6'5 Terry Pettis, who gained over 21 yards per catch a year ago, will again be featured targets. Shane Tucker, who gained 413 YR out of a slotback position in last year’s offense, was moved to wideout in spring to give Stockstill more targets. Meanwhile, Ole Miss transfer I’Tavius Mathers returns to his hometown as the featured RB after gaining 1061 YR over three seasons in the SEC and starring in the MTSU spring game. The left side of the OL is looking for a couple of new starters, but there was good depth on the forward wall a year ago that should come in handy this fall.

The Blue Raider “D” has been representative for the past few years under d.c. Tyrone Nix’s schemes, though six new starters will need to step into the breach this fall. Big holes remain at the LB and safety spots after five of the top six tacklers graduated following last season.

On the plus side, the DL is loaded with experience, with three starters returning up front on an all-senior line featuring bookends Chris Hale and ex-Marine Steven Rhodes. Starters also return at both CB spots, where Mike Minter and ballhawk deluxe Jeremy Cutrer form one of the best coverage duos in C-USA. Though an all-new starting crew of LBs is slated, physical jr. Myles Harges likely would have been in the lineup last fall if not for injury. Soph OLB Chris Melton also might have provided a glimpse of things to come when impressing with six tackles in the Bahamas Bowl vs. Western Michigan.

The schedule is a bit of a concern because there are only five home games at Jonny Floyd Stadium, important because the Blue Raiders are 15-3 SU at Murfreesboro since 2013 and 6-14 SU away from home. A tough three-game stretch in September at Vanderbilt, Bowling Green, and home vs. West contender La Tech will likely set the tone for the rest of the season.

Spread-wise, note the streaky nature of Stockstill’s recent editions, which have three times in the past two years rolled off spread win streaks of three games or more, while also having a pair of 4-game spread losing streaks. Interestingly, MTSU covered all four of its chances as a double-digit favorite last season.

What a nice fit it has turned out to be in Huntington between HC Doc Holliday and Marshall (2015 SUR 10-3, PSR 8-5, O/U 4-9), which has returned to gridiron relevance though the Doc years. Though there was a time when Holliday (50-28 SU in six seasons on the job) seemed on shaky ground a few years ago, three straight campaigns of double-digit wins and bowl wins suggest that Doc could probably take this job into retirement if he so desires.

The Herd’s track record warrants its inclusion among the top contenders in C-USA, though this might be a season where Holliday struggles to get to that 10-win plateau, considering the extreme rebuild necessary on the defensive side, where only four starters return from an accomplished platoon that ranked 10th (17.8 ppg) in scoring defense, an almost unheard-of accomplishment for a C-USA entry. With so much youth on this year’s roster, however, the work is going to be cut out for Holliday.

At least the offense should continue to roll after scoring 31 ppg when breaking in a hardscrabble frosh QB, Chase Litton, last season. The rough-hewn Litton would eventually pass for 2605 yards and 23 TDs after taking over control of the offense in the third game of 2015 vs. Norfolk State. A year ago, however, Litton was surrounded with a group of experienced skill guys on the strike force, but graduation has altered that scenario, especially after top two receiving targets Davonte Allen and Deandre Reaves graduated, taking 114 catches and 9 TDs with them from a year ago. Expected to assume more of a receiving burden is jr. Deon-Tay McManus, who caught 35 passes a year ago, and Plaxico Burress-sized soph Michael Clark, a 6'7 deep threat.

The Herd usually has no shortage of runners, and even after the departure of the thundering Devon Johnson (now in the NFL Carolina Panthers’ camp), shifty Hyleck Foster (450 YR) has shown enough pop in the past to suggest he can handle feature-back duties. Punishing soph Keion Davis (331 YR LY) offers a nice change-of-pace and a pile-driving style. Four starters also return along the OL. Moreover, Marshall was also tops nationally in special teams efficiency a year ago. So, we don’t think the problem for the Herd will be scoring points this fall.

There might be issues, however, on a mostly-rebuilt “D” that will test vet coordinator Chuck Heater, once upon a time a tough RB for some of Bo Schembechler’s early Michigan teams. Of particular concern are the new CBs, a position with little experience on the roster and a concern for Heater, whose system requires the corners to win one-on-one battles with wideouts while the front seven utilizes various Heater-designed blitz packages. Heater also has to replace C-USA Defensive MVP LB Evan McKelvey.

In the secondary, Heater does have some experience at the safety spots, where returning starter Tiquan Lang and Virginia Tech transfer C.J. Reavis will roam. Soph DE Ryan Bee proved a pass rush force last fall for a “D” that was adept at forcing TOs and various three-and-outs from opponents. But that was with a far more-experienced stop unit a year ago.

We’ll find out early how far along Holliday’s seventh Herd version might be with a tough September meatgrinder (Akron, Louisville, and at Pitt) after an expected fun time in the opener vs. the pride of Baltimore, the Morgan State Bears. Top East contenders MTSU and WKU also visit Edwards Stadium in November. Another bowl bid is considered a minimum expectation, and a run at the East crown could materialize if the defense coagulates sooner rather than later.

Spread-wise, Doc has had the Herd rolling the past three seasons, with an overall 25-15-1 mark vs. the number since 2013. Herd is also 13-5-1 vs. the number at Huntington since 2013, though 6-0 of that mark is credited to the 2013 team.

It’s been a fun two years for Western Kentucky (2015 SUR 12-2, PSR 8-4-1, O/U 9-4), which has piled up 20 wins (including a couple of bowl successes) in the two seasons on HC Jeff Brohm’s watch while QB Brandon Doughty set all sorts of team records. These developments have proven quite satisfying in the land of mutton BBQ, especially after Bobby Petrino bailed on the program for Louisville after just one season in 2013.

Fortunately, the Tops have continued to progress under Brohm, who has been on the radar of some “Big 5" conference schools and might not be long for WKU if the team continues to succeed and entertain as it has done the past two seasons. To do so this fall, however, might not be so easy, with questions now at the QB spot and significant rebuilding required on the defensive side.

The Tops boasted of a top ten offense a year ago, scoring a staggering 44.3 ppg, but Doughty moved to the NFL and the Miami Dolphins in last April’s draft, and no successor clearly emerged in spring. Thus, the QB battle continues into fall camp with Doughty’s backup, Nelson Fishback, and South Florida transfer Mike White running neck-and-neck. Neither, however, is reminding anyone in Bowling Green of Doughty. Still, whichever QB emerges will have some established weapons at his disposal, including last year’s top two RBs, sr. Anthony Wales and soph D’Andre Ferby, who combined for over 1700 YR and 20 TDs in 2015. The top eight offensive linemen all return from last year as well.

Still, concerns abound with the passing game, even beyond whichever QB eventually wins the job. Keep in mind that Brohm lost two of his top outside receiving threats (Jared Dangerfield and Antwane Grant) to graduation, plus key TE and NFL Rams draftee Tyler Higbee, but sr. WR Taywan Taylor returns after recording 86 catches a year ago.,..while starting only 5 games! After toying with the idea of entering the NFL Draft, Taylor returns for one more year at Bowling Green, yet depth of the receiving corps remains an issue. Speaking of concerns, there are some with the kicking game as well following the graduation of PK Garrett Schwettman, the school’s all-time leading scorer.

The Tops’ defense improved a year ago from one of the nation’s worst in 2014 to a capable platoon that ranked in the middle of most national stat categories, not bad considering the accelerated pace of LY’s WKU games due to the offensive potency. Coordinator Nick Holt, however, must break in seven new starters on the stop unit, though several rotation pieces from last season will now get more-featured roles. A transfer from Louisville, DE Nick Dawson-Brents, should slide into the starting lineup, while another Louisville transfer, sr. Keith Brown, will likely start at an ILB spot. Consider Dawson-Brents and Brown the last gifts to WKU from Petrino.

Aside from a trip to Tuscaloosa to face Alabama on Sept. 10, WKU should be favored in its other non-conference games, including hosting SEC Vanderbilt on September 17. The C-USA schedule is a bit tricky with road trips to top contenders La Tech, MTSU, and Marshall. Getting the required six wins for bowl consideration should not be too much trouble, but we are reluctant to forecast anything like last year’s 12-2 mark, considering the questions at QB and the significant rebuild needed on defense.

Spread-wise, Brohm enters this season on a 10-5-1 uptick, but that damage was all done with Doughty in the fold. The Tops have also been making quite a fortress out of L.T. Smith Stadium, covering 7 of their last 8 as host.

Considering the quick re-start of the program a few years ago at Old Dominion (2015 SUR 5-7, PSR 3-9, O/U 7-5), the Monarchs have come a long way, falling just one win short in their first season of bowl eligibility last fall. After spending two seasons as an FCS Independent, two more years in the CAA, one as an FBS indie, and now two years in C-USA, it amazes that ODU has a 57-27 SU record that span under clever HC Bobby Wilder. Moreover, a new 30,000-seat stadium is in the works to replace old Foreman Field, once the home of annual “Oyster Bowl” games in steamy Norfolk. That’s a lot of accomplishment in a short period of time.

Last year’s 5-7 was far from Wilder’s best mark, but it impressed nonetheless considering it came after the graduation of do-everything QB Taylor Heinecke (who moved to the NFL Vikings), and a spate of injuries, including at the QB spot post-Heinecke.

Now, Wilder is establishing the necessary depth in the program to sustain it at the higher level, no longer fearful of redshirting incoming frosh, and no longer one of the nation’s youngest teams, as the Monarchs were a year ago. Whether that is enough to get ODU to its first bowl game this fall remains to be seen, but Wilder absolutely appears to know what he is doing, and it seems unlikely he meets the same fate anytime soon as another recent college “expansion” coach, UTSA’s Larry Coker.

Some answers at the QB position would be welcomed this fall, though even when soph Shuler Bentley was able to take most of the snaps in spring because sr. David Washington was recovering from ACL surgery, he didn’t lay claim to the job. Providing his knee is properly heeled, most C-USA observers believe the ex-WR Washington, who passed for 1155 yards in a handful of starts last year, is behind center for the September 3 opener vs. Hampton.

If the QB situation can sort itself, the Monarchs might have a chance, because nine starters are back on the attack end, with receivers who caught 211 of the 235 pass completions from a year ago, including top target sr. Zach Pascal (68 receptions in 2015). Expect the TEs to become more involved in the aerial show after dealing with injuries last season. Indeed, the TEs loom more important this season due to relative youth along the OL, where a pair of redshirt frosh are likely to be the starting tackles. ODU also has a effective change-of-pace RB combo in slasher Ray Lawry (1136 YR and 5.9 ypc LY) and banger Jeremy Cox (369 YR & 5.1 ypc in 2015).

As expected, the Monarchs were still down the charts in defensive stats a year ago, but improving depth should help upgrade those numbers in the fall. There are 13 players on the roster who have seen time on the defensive line, including rugged sr. NT Rashaad Coward. Senior T.J. Ricks was C-USA’s leading tackler from last season, but was moved in spring from an inside to an outside LB spot to take advantage of his size and quickness. Three starters also return in the secondary, including both corners, Brandon Addison and Aaron Young.

Outside of a trip to NC State, ODU has a favorable non-league slate, and several winnable games in Norfolk suggest that Wilder's troops could get to the magic six wins for bowl eligibility.

Spread-wise, the Monarchs dropped their first eight vs. the number last season, lowering their 16-game spread mark, dating to early 2014, to 2-14, before covering three of their last four games last fall. After dropping their first seven spread decisions as a favorite, ODU finally covered as chalk last November 14 at home vs. UTEP.

There were times last season when Florida Atlantic (2015 SUR 3-9, PSR 5-7, O/U 4-8) looked like a formidable team, such as when physically manhandling nearby FIU at Boca Raton. Too often, however, the Owls found ways to lose games, dropping four games by 7 points or fewer, therein costing a chance at bowl eligibility.

That sort of pattern, however, has become familiar for FAU, which has not been able to gain much traction since the end of the Howard Schnellenberger era, which in retrospect lasted a couple of years too long. Desirous of allowing program architect Schnellenberger to coach at least one season in the new Boca Raton stadium when it opened in 2011, the program deteriorated without an heir apparent on staff. When successor Carl Pelini was dismissed midway in the 2013 campaign, the Owls were forced to start from scratch again and lured Charlie Partridge off of Bret Bielema’s Arkansas staff for the 2014 season. A pair of 3-9 records later, FAU continues to spin its wheels.

Thus, Partridge is authorizing major changes for 2016, beginning with a new-look offense that is embracing all of the tenets of video football. It’s no-huddle, uptempo all the way under new o.c. Travis Trickett, most recently at Stanford and the son of Florida State OL coach Rick Trickett. All quite a departure from the jerry-rigged offense of the past few seasons and one that ended 105th in scoring (22.5 ppg) a year ago with ultra-physical QB Jaquez Johnson, who even wore a running back’s number (32) as he would try to run over defenders. Soph Jason Driskel, brother of the former Florida and La Tech QB Jeff, effectively split snaps with Johnson last fall, or RS frosh Daniel Parr, who rejected nearby Miami to sign instead with the Owls, will take their battle from spring into fall camp to determine which will start. Several C-USA observers would not be surprised if Partridge opts to use both early in the season.

Some experienced weapons remain in the mix, as jr. Buddy Howell and sr. Jay Warren have combined to rush for 1871 yards the past two seasons. Though they might have to sacrifice carries to true frosh Devin Singletary, a nearby Deerfield Beach product who spurned offers from the Big Ten to stay close to home. Partridge and Trickett moved 6'6 Nate Terry from TE to the slot in the spring, which also opens up the TE spot for Wake Forest transfer Tyler Cameron, who played some QB for the Deacs but will be utilized as a TE for FAU.

There is also hope that the Owls won’t have to utilize P Dalton Schomp as much as a year ago, but if they do, his 48.0 average was best in the nation and usually gave the Owls a field-position edge last fall.

Despite using ten true frosh on “D” and special teams last season, the stop unit was far from the worst in C-USA and returns some playmakers, including NFL prospect DE Trey Hendrickson, whose 13.5 sacks last season tied for second best in the nation. But with newcomers manning the DT spots, Hendrickson might be dealing with extra attention from opposing blockers in the fall. There is great anticipation that touted frosh DT Kevin McCrary, from up the coast at Daytona Beach, will make an immediate impact. Nickel back Ocie Rose was the big-play star for d.c. Roc Bellationi’s platoon last season, scoring three TDs--only two off of the team lead!

Road games in the first month down I-95 at Sun Life Stadium vs. Miami and at Kansas State appear to be difficult non-league hurdles, but the locals will be disappointed if the Owls can’t beat Southern Illinois and Ball State in Boca Raton. If the new offense clicks, FAU should have a shot at its first bowl since the Schenellenberger era of 2008, though we do not like the recurring pattern of the Owls finding ways to lose close games...a partial indictment, at least to date, of Partridge.

Spread-wise, the glow of the Pelini years, when the Owls were a combined 17-7 vs. the number in 2012-13, has worn off under Partridge, whose teams are 11-13 vs. the line. FAU has maintained its recent underdog prowess, however, standing 9-5 in that role for Partridge after a 14-4 dog mark the previous two seasons combined.

They still haven’t recovered at Florida International (2015 SUR 3-9, PSR 6-5, O/U 7-5) from the ill-advised move three years by AD Pete Garcia (who has another fancy title...but we’ll just call him the AD), when he fired up-and-comer HC Mario Cristobal, a Miami-area native who had taken FIU to bowls in 2010 & ‘11, and replaced him with journeyman HC Ron Turner, who has had more jobs over the years than Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort.

Nick Saban, who knows a bit more about football than Garcia, would immediately hire Cristobal for his staff at Alabama, while Turner, to no one’s surprise, has struggled with the Golden Panthers, winning just 10 games in three seasons. Noting what happened with Cristobal after the 2012 season, some wise guys in South Beach have suggested that the likely way for Garcia to fire Turner would be for FIU to make a bowl game this season, but we digress.

Turner, whose career HC record is now 52-87 and a generation removed from when he was considered a hot up-and-comer at San Jose State in 1991, is feeling some heat after seeing his team collapse in the final two games of last season. Collapse might be an understatement, as the Golden Panthers were outscored a combined 115-7 by Marshall and WKU, and the game vs. the Tops was even called off early due to weather conditions. All of that after the FIU had clawed to 5-5 and within reach of a bowl bid. That postseason spot might be a prerequisite for Turner to keep his job into 2017...though with AD Garcia, we never know.

There are nine starters back on the offensive end, where Turner needs to develop some consistency or else risk a fourth straight losing season. Junior QB Alex McGough passed for 2722 yards and 21 TDs last season, and will be a three-year starter in the fall, but needs to take the next step as a leader and find ways to win close games. On the plus side, there are nine returning starters on offense, and established playmakers are at the skill positions. Including slashing RB Alex Gardner, who would gain 1200 yards from scrimmage a year ago as he also caught 68 passes. Top receivers wideout Thomas Owens (51 catches LY) and TE Jonnu Smith (36 catches) are also still in the fold. The veteran OL returns all five starters and many of its reserves after an injury-plagued 2015, but even considering the Turner offense is aerial-based, the forward wall needs to do a better job of run blocking as FIU finished 122nd nationally in rushing.

Lack of big plays also haunted the strike force last season, when no run play would gain more than 36 yards, and top receivers like Owens were gaining only 12 yards per catch.

FIU’s defensive numbers were all middle-of-the-road last season though were probably distorted by facing the sluggish attacks of UCF, NC Central, and UTEP. More illuminating might be the fact that six foes gained 450 yards or more. In May, Turner was also forced to juggle his staff after d.c Matt House took a job on Mark Stoops’s staff at Kentucky. Ron Cooper, once upon a time the HC at Louisville, was promoted from DB coach to House’s old coordinator position.

Only four starters return on the stop unit, and just one of those (sr. DT Imarjaye Albury) up front. Cooper will thus need newcomers to generate a pass rush. The return of sr. Davison Colimon, a 2014 starter who tore a pectoral muscle in the opener vs. UCF and missed the rest of last season, should bolster the LB corps. Alongside leading returning tackler Anthony Vint (98 tackles LY), the LB corps might be the strength of the defense. There is some experience in the defensive backfield, with jr. S Niko Gonzalez and CB Deonte Wilson, who started four games at S last season, but they need to generate more plays as Gonzalez was the only member of the returning secondary who had a pick last season (he had two).

FIU has an interesting early schedule with Big Ten Indiana and Maryland both lured to Miami for non-conference dates. The slate picks up again later in the season with a 4-game stretch vs. top C-USA contenders La Tech, MTSU, WKU, and Marshall. It will be hard to consider much progress being made in the program if Turner can’t win at least one of those games. Thus, some C-USA sources believe Turner’s eventual fate is determined by that 4-game stretch.

Spread-wise, Turner had forged a recovery that began late in 2013 and extended into last November, covering 15 in a 21-game run before failing to cover the last three on the board (and it would have been four Ls in a row had the WKU debacle not been called early due to weather). A four-game cover streak vs. nearby FAU was also ended unceremoniously in Boca Raton last Halloween.

And then there was Charlotte (2015 SUR 2-10, PSR 4-7, O/U 5-6), the latest FBS “expansion team” that enters its fourth year of competition this fall. The 49ers got their fans all jumpy last September when winning their first two games out of the chute as a real FBS entry, but reality soon set in and the enormity of the task at hand for HC Brad Lambert was confirmed by ten straight losses. While Charlotte has some capable frontline players, the depth is not yet up to FBS level, even those of C-USA, though no one in the region was expecting the 49ers to win the league in their first try.

They probably won’t win in their second trip around the track, either, but Charlotte might look a bit more like a real team as the 49ers get closer to full capacity and real FBS-level players enter the program. Including the new QB, Kevin Olsen, who began his career at Miami-Fla. but most recently was winging the ball for Riverside JC in California. He’s also the brother of NFL Panthers TE Greg Olsen, so Kevin at least has someone local to show him around town. Other transfer QBs include ex-East Carolina Cody Keith and ex-NC A&T Hasan Klugh, indicating the talent upgrades infusing the nascent 49er program.

With all of these new arms on campus, Lambert has switched last year’s QB, sr. Matt Johnson, to a RB spot, where he likely spots slashing sr. Kalif Phillips, a legit FBS runner who gained 961 YR a year ago despite missing most of the final three games with an injured knee. There are also some established targets for Olsen, as sr. WRs Trent Bostick & Austin Duke and jr. T.I. Ford combined for 1253 yards worth of receptions last fall. Four starters also return on the OL, including All-CUSA frosh G Nate Davis. Depth still needs upgrading along the forward wall, but it’s safe to say this apparently upgraded “O” can exceed last year’s 17.5 ppg, which ranked 119th nationally.

Charlotte’s defense allowed 36 ppg in 2015 but it nonetheless improved markedly a year ago under d.c Matt Wallerstedt, a teammate of Lambert’s in college at Kansas State and having also coordinated at Texas Tech and Air Force. The 49ers cut 58 ypg (down to 419) from 2014 despite playing a much upgraded slate a year ago. Wallerstedt’s 3-4 was stunting and blitzing consistently last season and made enough plays to prevent a few games from becoming runaways the other way.

Eight starters return on defense, led by sr. NG Larry Ogunjobi, who effectively clogs the middle and tied for second in C-USA tackles for loss with 14.5. Seniors man both CB spots, including Terrance Winchester, who recorded four picks last season and scored Charlotte’s first-ever FBS TD when he brought back a fumble to the house in the opening 23-20 win at Georgia State.

No one is expecting much this season from the 49ers, and the support base would probably be content to merely see improvement, fewer lopsided losses, and maybe an extra couple of wins. In another year or two, Lambert is going to need to do a bit better, but for the time being, Charlotte fans will be satisfied with a competitive product that continues to make progress.

[StarDust Bum]

2016 Northeast Conference Preview
August 15, 2016

(STATS) - Championship Saturday 2015. It still lives in the thoughts of the Saint Francis football coaches and players.

They played for the Northeast Conference championship at Duquesne on the final day of the regular season last November.

Boasting a winning record for the first time since 1992, they surely started getting ahead of themselves when they built a 14-0 lead through one quarter.

It was all Duquesne from there, with SFU suffering a 30-20 loss that still stings today.

"It's still in my heart. I can't get rid of that feeling," All-America safety and kick returner Lorenzo Jerome said.

"With the success that came," coach Chris Villarial said, "that's a hard pill to swallow."

The NEC figures to be competitive again, with 2013 and '14 champ Sacred Heart expected to get back into the championship mix. Duquesne is the preseason favorite.

Saint Francis isn't quite the upstart anymore. With an experienced team returning from the breakthrough season - and heartache - Jerome points out, "We know how to win this year."

Duquesne is equally as experienced, though, and committed to playing physical defense. The Dukes nearly upset CAA Football power William & Mary in their first-ever FCS playoff game, falling 52-49 on the road.

This year's goal, star quarterback Dillon Buechel said, "Just take it to the next level. Get back to that point and try to do some damage in the playoffs this year. â?¦ Guys on this team love to compete."

Following is a team-by-team breakdown of the 2016 Northeast Conference race and STATS' predicted order of finish:

1. Duquesne

2. Sacred Heart

3. Saint Francis

4. Bryant

5. Robert Morris

6. Central Connecticut State

7. Wagner

---=

TEAM CAPSULES=

1. DUQUESNE DUKES=

LOCATION: Pittsburgh

STADIUM: Arthur J. Rooney Athletic Field

COACH: Jerry Schmitt (68-51 in 11 seasons at Duquesne; 93-69 overall)

LAST SEASON: 8-4 overall, 5-1 NEC (1st)

STARTERS RETURNING: 13 (7 offense/6 defense)

THREE KEY LOSSES: Rafiq Douglas, RB; Chris King, WR; Dan Buchholz, OL

ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Dillon Buechel, QB, Sr. (228-for-401, 2,871 yards, 24 TDs, 8 INTs)

ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Christian Kuntz, LB, Sr. (72 TT, 26 TFL, 11 sacks, 4 INTs, 6 PBU, 6 QBH, 1 FR, 2 FF)

OTHER KEY PLAYERS: P.J. Fulmore, RB, So.; Wayne Capers, WR, Sr.; Reggie McKnight, WR, Sr.; Nehari Crawford, WR/KR, So.; Dave Thomas, WR, Sr.; Larson Graham, OL, Sr.; Ben Huss, OL, JR.; Jake Radziukinas, DL, Sr.; Nathan Stone, LB, Jr.; Gary Wooten, LB, Sr. (Penn State transfer); Abner Roberts, DB, Jr.; Malik Shegog, DB, Jr.; Austin Crimmins, PK/P, Sr.

OUTLOOK: The defending NEC champion Dukes' talent level remains high despite the unexpected loss of star running back Douglas, who nearly rushed for 1,000 yards as a sophomore. The strong-armed Buechel, who threw for 423 yards and six touchdowns against William & Mary in the Dukes' first-ever FCS playoff game, is a fourth-year starter who was named the NEC's preseason quarterback. He gets back Capers (51 receptions, nine TDs) and developing sophomore Crawford to keep the offense moving the ball. The Dukes are replacing three starters on the offensive line in addition to dropping in the new starting running back, Fulmore. The defense helped force 26 turnovers (which led to a plus-13 turnover margin) and seeks to remain opportunistic. It has an exceptional linebackers corps led by Kuntz, the 2015 NEC defensive player of the year. A bull's-eye is squarely on the Dukes' backs.

SCHEDULE:

Sept. 1, at Youngstown State

Sept. 10, Bucknell

Sept. 17, Dayton

Sept. 24, Kennesaw State

Oct. 1, at Jacksonville

Oct. 15, Robert Morris*

Oct. 22, at Saint Francis*

Oct. 29, Bryant*

Nov. 5, at Wagner*

Nov. 12, Sacred Heat*

Nov. 19, at Central Connecticut State*

* - NEC game

---=

2. SACRED HEART PIONEERS=

LOCATION: Fairfield, Connecticut

STADIUM: Campus Field

COACH: Mark Nofri (27-20 in four seasons at Sacred Heart)

LAST SEASON: 6-5 overall, 3-3 NEC (Tie/3rd)

STARTERS RETURNING: 13 (7 offense/6 defense)

THREE KEY LOSSES: Tyler Dube, WR; Connor Caveney, DL; Kellen Sperduto, LB

ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: RJ Noel, QB, R-Sr. (182-for-325, 2,431 yards, 19 TDs, 9 INTs; 130 carries, 247 yards, 6 TDs)

ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: James Rentz, LB, Sr. (54 TT, 13 TFL, 8.5 sacks, 1 INT, 2 QBH, 1 FR, 2 FF)

OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Ose Imeokparia, RB, Sr.; Nate Chavious, RB/KR, Sr.; Moses Webb, WR/DB, R-Sr.; Andrew O'Neill, WR, Jr.; Dhameer Bradley, WR, Jr. (UConn transfer); Sean Merrill, OL, Sr.; Sean Peters, OL, Sr.; Ryan Cottrell, DL, Sr.; Dylan Ackerson, DL, Jr.; Kevin Barry, LB, Sr.; Tim Johnson, CB, Sr.; Alec Finelli, S, Jr.; Alec Finney, PK/P, Sr.

OUTLOOK: The Pioneers have plenty of motivated upperclassmen who won NEC titles in 2013 and '14. Among them is QB Noel, who has won All-NEC first-team honors for three straight years but wasn't the preseason pick by the conference coaches (it was Duquesne's Dillon Buechel). It seems impossible for the Pioneers to replace leading receiver Dube, but they first want to run the ball with Imeokparia and Chavious. Fourth-year starters Rentz and Cottrell lead a defense which has big hitters. The focus has been on improving the pass defense as the Pioneers allowed over 238 passing yards per game last season. Sacred Heart's non-conference schedule isn't taxing - it opens with three Pioneer Football League opponents - so the Pioneers should get off to a solid start in 2016.

SCHEDULE:

Sept. 3, at Stetson

Sept. 10, Valparaiso

Sept. 17, Marist

Sept. 24, at Stony Brook

Oct. 1, at Wagner*

Oct. 15, at Cornell

Oct. 22, Robert Morris*

Oct. 29, Saint Francis*

Nov. 5, at Central Connecticut State*

Nov. 12, at Duquesne*

Nov. 19, Bryant*

* - NEC game

---=

3. SAINT FRANCIS (PA.) RED FLASH=

LOCATION: Loretto, Pennsylvania

STADIUM: DeGol Field

COACH: Chris Villarrial (24-41 in six seasons at Saint Francis)

LAST SEASON: 6-4 overall, 4-2 NEC (2nd)

STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (6 offense/8 defense)

THREE KEY LOSSES: Khairi Dickson, RB; Terell Smith, WR; DaQuan Minter, CB

ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Marcus Bagley, RB, Sr.

ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Lorenzo Jerome, FS/RS, Sr.

OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Zack Drayer, QB, Sr.; Kam Lewis, WR, So.; Cyrus Holder, WR, Fr.; Sam Freireich, LT, Sr.; Christian Eubanks, LG, So.; Jimmy Marks, C, Sr.; Louie Gartner, DE, So.; Wesley Nagaseu, NT, Sr.; Erik Walker, LB, Sr.; Solomon Leaeno, LB, Sr.; Malik Duncan, CB, Jr.; Delondo Boyd, SS, Jr.; Lance Geesey, PK, Sr.

OUTLOOK: Coming of their first winning season since 1992 and their best one on the FCS level, the Red Flash could very well win their first NEC title this year. Their matchup with Duquesne is at DeGol Field. Villarrial likes to play a lot of players, so the depth will pay off. Jerome will keep the secondary at a high level and the defense has a disruptive force in NT Nagaseu. On offense, QB Drayer (152-for-250, 1,977 yards, 15 TDs, 9 INTs) is highly experienced, and the Red Flash return their starting offensive line, anchored by Marks. The loss of All-NEC RB Dickson is tempered by the return of Bagley, a bruiser who was the conference's 2014 offensive rookie of the year. The Red Flash also have dominant special teams, although standout Geesey is coming off hip surgery. Like preseason favorite Duquesne, the Red Flash had a conference-high six selections on the NEC preseason team.

SCHEDULE:

Sept. 3, at Montana

Sept. 10, at Towson

Sept. 17, at Columbia

Sept. 24, at Albany

Oct. 1, Malone

Oct. 8, at Robert Morris*

Oct. 15, Bryant*

Oct. 22, Duquesne*

Oct. 29, at Sacred Heart*

Nov. 12, Central Connecticut State*

Nov. 19, at Wagner*

* - NEC game

---=

4. BRYANT BULLDOGS=

LOCATION: Smithfield, Rhode Island

STADIUM: Bulldog Stadium

COACH: Marty Fine (75-55 in 12 seasons at Bryant; 90-60 overall)

LAST SEASON: 5-6 overall, 3-3 NEC (Tie/3rd)

STARTERS RETURNING: 9 (5 offense/ 4 defense)

THREE KEY LOSSES: Ricardo McCray, RB; Chad Ward, WR; Abe M'Bodj, OL

ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Dalton Easton, QB, Sr. (205-for-374, 2,601 yards, 22 TDs, 13 INTs)

ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Patrick Kenney, LB, Sr. (85 TT, 8.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, 1 QBH, 2 FR, 1 FF)

OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Ryan Black, RB, Sr.; Alfred Dorbor, RB, Fr.; Hunter Taute, FB, Jr.; Taylor Barthelette, WR, Sr.; Matt Sewall, WR, Jr.; Keenan Thompson, WR, Sr.; Tyler Cardoze, OL, Sr.; George Smith, OL, Sr.; Dillon Guthro, DE, R-So.; Joe Mendez, DE, So.; Kevin Lazo, DL, So.; Marquise Watson, DL/LB, Sr.; Robert Brown, LB, Fr.; Thomas Costigan, LB, So.; Charles Wingate, DB, Sr.; Charles Keenan, FS, Sr.; Brandon Owens, SS, Sr.; Patrick Champagnie, DB, Jr.

OUTLOOK: Still seeking their first NEC title, the Bulldogs were picked first in the conference's preseason poll last year and it seemed to weigh on them while they slumped to a mediocre season. With only nine returning starters, they will need young players to fill key roles. Easton is coming off a season in which he led the NEC in passing yards and yards per game, but he won't have running back Ricardo McCray, the 2015 NEC offensive player of the year, around to keep defenses more honest. The Bulldogs should be solid defensively as they return three of their top four tacklers in LBs Kenney and Watson and FS Keenan, while Wingate made the NEC preseason team. The Bulldogs will make a Sept. 10 visit to Montana State - the program's first-ever trip west of the Mississippi River.

SCHEDULE:

Sept. 3, Merrimack

Sept. 10, at Montana State

Sept. 17, Brown

Sept. 24, Central Connecticut State*

Oct. 1, Maine

Oct. 15, at Saint Francis*

Oct. 22, Wagner*

Oct. 29, at Duquesne*

Nov. 5, Robert Morris*

Nov. 12, at Coastal Carolina

Nov. 19, at Sacred Heart*

* - NEC game

---=

5. ROBERT MORRIS COLONIALS=

LOCATION: Moon Township, Pennsylvania

STADIUM: Joe Walton Stadium

COACH: John Banaszak (5-17 in two seasons at Robert Morris)

LAST SEASON: 4-7 overall, 2-4 NEC (6th)

STARTERS RETURNING: 14 (7 offense/7 defense)

THREE KEY LOSSES: Forrest Mason, DE; Mike Stojkovic, ILB; Jake Tkach, ILB

ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Kyle Buss, WR, R-So. (50 receptions, 742 yards, 2 TDs)

ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Marcelis Branch, CB, R-Sr. (63 TT, 2 TFL, 1 INT, 3 PBU, 1 BK)

OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Matt Barr, QB, So.; Rameses Owens, RB, Jr.; Cole Blake, RB, Jr.; Warren Robinson, WR/PR, So.; Nic Lamica, TE, R-Jr.; Blake Chambliss, OL, R-Jr.; Ryan Lewis, DE, Sr.; Austin Trgovcich, DE, R-Sr.; Zack Zamiska, DT, R-Jr.; Jimmy Masson, OLB, Sr.; Gerald Ferguson, OLB, Jr.; Drew Allen, CB, Jr.; Ryan Richards Jr., SS, Jr.; Andy Smigiera, WS, Sr.

OUTLOOK: As expected, Banaszak is turning the Colonials into a hard-nosed team. They were among the best in the FCS against the pass last season and their 34 sacks were impressive. With Branch and Smigiera back to anchor the secondary, the Colonials expect similar success this year. But the offense needs improvement after it averaged only 14 points per game. It has a new coordinator in Mike Miller, who began his career with the Colonials under former coach Joe Walton and has 13 years of NFL experience. Barr figures to cut down on interceptions as a sophomore and has a terrific go-to target in Buss, the 2015 NEC offensive rookie of the year. They have to shore up the offensive line, which lost three starters. A healthier Owens (125 carries, 456 yards, 4 TDs) alongside Blake boosts the run game.

SCHEDULE:

Sept. 1, Alderson-Broaddus

Sept. 10, at Dayton

Sept. 17, at Youngstown State

Sept. 24, Malone

Oct. 1, at Liberty

Oct. 8, Saint Francis*

Oct. 15, at Duquesne*

Oct. 22, at Sacred Heart*

Oct. 29, Central Connecticut State*

Nov. 5, at Bryant*

Nov. 12, Wagner*

* - NEC game

---=

6. CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE BLUE DEVILS=

LOCATION: New Britain, Connecticut

STADIUM: Arute Field

COACH: Pete Rossomando (7-16 in two seasons at Central Connecticut State; 49-29 overall)

LAST SEASON: 4-7 overall, 3-3 NEC (Tie/3rd)

STARTERS RETURNING: 16 (7 offense/9 defense)

THREE KEY LOSSES: Tavion Pauldo, QB; Tyler Hurd, OL; Jevon Elmore, CB

ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Cameron Nash, RB/KR, Jr. (118 carries, 676 yards, 3 TDs; 18 receptions, 218 yards, 1 TD)

ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Asia Bolling, DE/OLB, Sr. (64 TT, 14.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 2 PBU, 1 FR, 2 FF)

OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Jake Dolegala, QB, So.; Brenden Lytton, RB, Sr.; Dan Hebert, WR, Sr.; Joey Fields, WR, Jr.; Alex Jamele, WR, So.; K.J. Smith, TE, So.; Chris Tinkham, DL, So.; Randall LaGuerre, LB, Jr.; Keir Minor, OLB, Sr.; Seth Manzanares, OLB, Jr.; Najae Brown, S, Jr.; Jarrod Cann, S, Jr.; Tymir Hinton, S, So.

OUTLOOK: The two-deep was filled with underclassmen last season, so there's cause for optimism at CCSU. The mobile Pauldo shared time at quarterback as a freshman, but he's no longer in the program, leaving Dolegala to run the offense full-time. The Blue Devils like the ball in the hand of the versatile Nash, although the run game also is getting back Lytton, who was expected to be the starter last year but was injured in preseason camp. All-America CB Elmore, who racked up 18 passes defended, was lost to academics, which means Brown must steady the secondary. Bolling and LB LaGuerre are the defensive standouts. Improvement is vital because the Blue Devils have a tough non-conference schedule which includes James Madison, Coastal Carolina and Penn.

SCHEDULE:

Sept. 2, Lafayette

Sept. 10, at James Madison

Sept. 17, Bowie State

Sept. 24, at Bryant*

Oct. 8, at Penn

Oct. 15, Wagner*

Oct. 22, at Coastal Carolina

Oct. 29, at Robert Morris*

Nov. 5, Sacred Heart*

Nov. 12, at Saint Francis*

Nov. 19, Duquesne*

* - NEC game

---=

7. WAGNER SEAHAWKS=

LOCATION: Staten Island, New York

STADIUM: Wagner College Stadium

COACH: Jason Houghtaling (1-10 in one season at Wagner)

LAST SEASON: 1-10 overall, 1-5 NEC (7th)

STARTERS RETURNING: 8 (5 offense/3 defense)

THREE KEY LOSSES: Otis Wright, RB/KR; Stephon Font-Toomer, LB; Greg Hilliard, LB

ONE TO WATCH ON OFFENSE: Ryan Owens, TE, Grad (29 receptions, 353 yards, 1 TD)

ONE TO WATCH ON DEFENSE: Najee Harris, OLB, Sr. (58 TT, 10 TFL, 4 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 PBU, 3 QBH, 1 FF)

OTHER KEY PLAYERS: Alex Thomson, QB, Jr.; A.J. Long, QB, Jr.; Matthias McKinnon, RB, Sr.; Denzell Knight, RB, Jr.; Andre Yevchinecz, WR/PR, Sr.; Brandon Peoples, WR, Sr.; Matt Diaz, OL, Sr.; Jordan Baskerville, DE. Jr.; Randall May, LB, Jr.; Tim Hayes, CB, Sr.; Sterling Lowry, CB, So.; Kemani Howard, FS, Jr.; Bryan Rafano, P, Sr.

OUTLOOK: The transition from former coach Walt Hameline to Houghtaling wasn't smooth last season as the Seawhawks dropped off from a 7-4 record and share of the NEC title in 2014. They weren't the usual ball-control team and the defense struggled up the middle. Houghtaling thinks they have to play harder, but it shows in the preseason competition for playing time. Thomson (90-for-175, 1,085 yards, 8 TDs, 6 INTs) is the incumbent at quarterback, but he's been pushed by Long, a transfer from Syracuse. New offensive coordinator Rich Santangello will rely on fifth-year TE Owens for leadership as well as production. The defense seeks improvement after ranking at the bottom of the NEC. Harris is asked to lead a turnaround. With four of the first games at home, the Seahawks can envision a stronger start this season.

SCHEDULE:

Sept. 1, St. Anselm

Sept. 10, Concordia (Mich.)

Sept. 24, at Boston College

Oct. 1, Sacred Heart*

Oct. 8, Columbia

Oct. 15, at Central Connecticut State*

Oct. 22, at Bryant*

Oct. 29, at Massachusetts

Nov. 5, Duquesne*

Nov. 12, at Robert Morris*

Nov. 19, Saint Francis*

* - NEC game