The Bum's Previewing College Football 2016 !

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2016 Big 12 Preview
June 27, 2016


Still The Same

The idea of a conference championship game for a 10-team league didn’t seem of interest to coaches.

“A year ago, we went to Oklahoma State in the last game of the regular season and won by 35 points,” OU coach Bob Stoops said. “And the way it was set up, had we played a championship game, we would have played them again the very next week.”

However, talk of expansion and playing a conference title game remains in the air with school A.D’s.

Heisman Hopefuls

Four Big 12 quarterbacks have appeared on some early Heisman Trophy blogs, including prolific signal-callers, namely Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes, Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph and Baylor’s Seth Russell.


Meanwhile, nine teams return their regular starting quarterback in 2016. Eight of the Conference’s top 10 rushers return next season, including four that averaged over 100 yards a game.

Yeah, That’s Us

In spite of the fact the Big 12 owns a lousy 45-70 ATS bowl record since 2001, it has had at least seven bowl teams in 16 of the last 18 seasons. In fact the Big 12 was the only conference last season in which all of its bowl opponents were from power conferences.

Over the last seven seasons, the Big 12 football conference has had six different teams win a conference trophy. No other Power 5 conference has had as many different champions since 2009.

Half of the upcoming season’s non-conference opponents (15-of-30) competed in a 2015 bowl game. The Big 12 will play five teams that played in CFP New Year’s Bowls (Stanford, Iowa, Ohio State, Notre Dame and Houston), the second-most of the Power 5 leagues.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

BAYLOR (Offense - *5/1, Defense - 5/0, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: THE NOT-SO-ARTFUL DODGER

Art Briles is history, fired after 8 years in the wake of a sexual assault scandal involving Baylor football players. Jim Grobe steps in to pick up the pieces and though the Bears might be short on returning starters, there's a lot of experience to lean on. QB Seth Russell was 7-0 as the starter in 2015, averaging 61 PPG before his season ended with a neck injury. He’s back along with replacement QB Jarrett Stidham. Four of the top 5 WRs also return along with Shock Linwood, one of 2 returning running backs to rush for 1,000 yards last season. Even without Briles calling the shots, the nation’s No. 1 scoring and No. 2 rushing offense should keep rolling. Remember, for a third straight season, Baylor finished No. 1 in the country in total offense (616.2 ypg) and scoring (48.1 ppg). And with it the Bears have finished in the top 15 of both polls in three consecutive years and are one of only six programs to accomplish that feat, along with Alabama, Clemson, Florida State, Michigan State and Ohio State.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Interim Baylor head coach Jim Grobe is 1-11 ATS as a non-conference favorite of more than 7 or more points.

PLAY AGAINST: at Rice (9/16)

IOWA STATE (Offense - *6/1, Defense - 10/2, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: IT’S AMAZING WHAT CAMPBELL CAN DO

Thirty-six-year old Matt Campbell, who was 35-15 at Toledo, takes over the reins in Ames from veteran Paul Rhoads. Campbell brought in the highest-ranked Iowa State signing class over the last five seasons. Included is JUCO QB Jacob Park, originally signed with Georgia as a 2014 redshirt. He’ll battle Joel Lanning, who started the final five games of the season, tossing 10 TDs and tallying over 400 yards in three of those starts. Meanwhile, RB Mike Warren, the Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year, burst onto the scene with 1,339 rushing yards as a redshirt freshman last season, the fifth most in ISU history. Iowa State ended the season with an average of 182.0 rushing yards per game, its most since 2000. The biggest attrition takes place along the offensive line, which loses 111 career starts. It will take time to make ISU a winner but Campbell was a brilliant hire.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Paul Rhoads, Campbell’s predecessor, is the only coach to take the Cyclones to a bowl in his first season.

PLAY ON: vs. Kansas State (10/29)

KANSAS (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 8/1, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: AND THE BEAT GOES ON

No surprise here: the Jayhawks were outscored and outyarded by conference foes, worse (-35.8 PPG and -267 YPG ) than any team in the Big 12 last season. As a result, they regressed to 3-57 SU in their last 60 conference games – easily the worst mark in the nation over the same span. Through it all, Kansas ranked dead last (No. 128) in both total defense (560.8 YPG) and defensive scoring PPG allowed (46.1) last season, while also allowing the 5th most plays per game (80.6) on defense. On a good note, QB Ryan Willis became KU’s all-time passing leader among freshmen with 1,719 yards (164-of-305) in 2015. If head coach David Beaty is expecting to be around for a third season, it’s imperative a stop-unit that declined 108 YPG makes a U-turn in a hurry. Good luck with that.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After their season opener, the Jayhawks will face 8 straight bowl teams that were 62-9 SU combined last year.

PLAY AGAINST: at West Virginia (11/5)

KANSAS STATE (Offense - *5/1, Defense - 9/2, 40 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: YOUTH MOVEMENT

Grandpa Snyder is on a youth kick, and his backers figure to be the beneficiaries. A total of 13 players made their first career starts in 2015, including 8 freshmen. In addition, 47 redshirt or true freshmen combined to make their first start, which tied for the most under Bill Snyder since the 1989 team, his first year in Manhattan. Additionally, 28 underclassmen saw playing time during the 2015 campaign. Equally impressive is the fact that KSU has been the least-penalized team in the Big 12 each of the last three seasons. And remember, the Wildcats finished the year ranked first in the conference, and second nationally, in red-zone offense, converting on 52-of-55 of their scoring attempts.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Wildcats have been to 18 bowl games in their history. They have followed a bowl season with another bowl berth 15 times.

PLAY AGAINST: at West Virginia (10/1)

OKLAHOMA (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 6/2, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NEW SEASON, SAME EXPECTATIONS

Bob Stoops won his ninth Big 12 title in 17 years last season. No other school has won more than two in that same span. In the process, the Sooners held league opponents to -114 YPG below what they were averaging at the time they faced OU, while also landing a spot in the College Football Playoffs. The defending champion has holes to fill, but also has QB Baker Mayfield (4,105 combined passing and rushing yards and 43 TDs) and RBs Samaje Perine (1,349 rushing yards and 16 TDs) and Joe Mixon (1,049 combined yards and 11 TDs) back on offense, while 51 upperclassmen dot the roster. Despite the fact that Oklahoma’s 2016 non-conference schedule will include CFP New Year’s Bowl Game winners Houston and Ohio State, consider this our annual ‘Beware of the Sooners’ call.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 9 league opponents the Sooners faced last year averaged a combined -144 fewer yards per game against OU.

PLAY ON: vs. Texas (10/8)

OKLAHOMA STATE (Offense - *9/5, Defense - 7/2, 42 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: LOCKED AND LOADED

Two years ago, the Cowboys fielded the nation’s most inexperienced team. Last year, behind 17 suddenly experienced returning starters, Oklahoma State won its first 10 games of the season en route to a Sugar Bowl appearance. This year they return deeper than ever, starting with the most experienced OL in college football, one that goes 6 deep with returning starters that have made 120 total starts. QB Mason Rudolph is the real deal, with the most yards-per-completion (14.28) of all active signal callers, while the entire running back corps returns intact. With two additional starters who missed last year with injuries back on defense, rest assured this is one well-heeled collection of Cowboys. FYI: forced 28 turnovers on the year, a mark that ranked second in the Big 12 and was ninth nationally. In addition, OSU’s defense scored five touchdowns on the season to lead the Big 12 and rank third nationally.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cowboys are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS off back-to-back wins versus a foe off back-to-back losses under Mike Gundy.

PLAY ON: at Baylor (9/24)

TCU (Offense - 5/1, Defense - 7/3, 39 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: YOUNG NEW FROGS

Despite an abundance of injuries on both sides of the ball, the Frogs won 6 one-possession contests (games decided by 7 or fewer) points) last season – 2nd most in the nation. Former Texas A&M QB Kenny Hill replaces QB Trevone Boykin, now a Seattle Seahawk. Hill tossed for 2,649 yards and 23 TD passes in 2014 with the Aggies and looks to be a nice fit. With 4 senior starting OL having departed, along with RB Aaron Green (2,194 rushing yards and 20 TDs last two years) and WR Josh Doctson (138 receptions for 2,286 yards and 23 TDs the last two years) a ton of production has moved on to the NFL. Yes we realize that the Horned Frogs have finished in the top 10 in back-to-back seasons and five times in the last 8 years, and in 15 seasons under head coach Gary Patterson, TCU has posted six top-10 finishes and 10 in the top 25. Nonetheless, expect a dropoff in 2016.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Since 2005, TCU has the best record in Texas (111-30) among FBS programs – 12 games better than No. 2 Texas.

PLAY ON: vs. Oklahoma State (11/19)

TEXAS (Offense - *7/3, Defense - 7/2, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ABSORBING THE SHOCK

If there’s a hotter hot-seat in college football in the state of Texas than the one UT head coach Charlie Strong resides upon, it would have to be the one attached to the electric chair at the federal prison in Beaumont. As a result, Strong needs to find a spark for an offense that averaged less than 26.5 points a game last year. Hiring Tulsa OC and former Baylor assistant Sterlin Gilbert is a step in the right direction. So is landing the top recruiting classes in the Big 12 each of the last two years. And if UT can get adequate quarterback play to go with its solid run game, the Longhorns’ offense could make a huge jump under Gilbert. If not, it could be ‘adios’ to the Horns’ head coach.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Freshman Longhorns made a total of 77 starts last season, the most in the nation.

PLAY ON: at California (9/17) - *KEY

TEXAS TECH (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 6/1, 48 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: YARDS GALORE

Star JR QB Patrick Mahomes figures to factor into the Heisman Trophy race this season. He has thrown for more than 6,200 yards and 52 TD passes as an underclassman with the Raiders. He also led the nation with 5,109 yards of total offense last season. JUCO WR Derrick Willies becomes Mahomes’ new go-to target. Willies caught 49 passes for 1,115 yards and 14 TDs in junior college last season. It’s all part of the reason Texas Tech scored at least 25 points in each of its 13 games in 2015, one of only two schools in the country to do so. TTRR has had 53-straight games with at least 325 yards of total offense, the longest active streak in the FBS. A veteran secondary returns for the second straight year but it’s Kliff Kingsbury’s rush defense that remains a sieve (6.2 DYPR). In a move that doesn’t figure to helps matters, starting LB Dakota Allen was one of three players kicked off the team this spring. Uh oh.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Red Raiders’ opponents have rushed the ball for 40 or more attempts in 23 of 25 games the past two seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona State (9/10)

WEST VIRGINIA (Offense - *9/4, Defense - 4/2, 33 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: COUNTRY IN-ROADS

SR QB Skyler Howard started all 13 games last year completing 221-of-403 passes for 3,145 yards and 26 touchdowns, including 532 yards and 5 TDs in the Cactus Bowl win over Arizona State. He returns with the 2nd most yards-per-completion of active quarterbacks. Last year’s young and inexperienced wide receiving corps is anxious to improve this year. “I would be surprised if these receivers don’t turn some heads,” said head coach Dana Holgorsen. In addition, former OSU assistant Joe Wickline is now the offensive coordinator in Morgantown. Unfortunately, the defense loses 261 games of starting experience, with just 78 games of experience returning. Meanwhile, West-by-God thanks the man above for its 162 games of offensive starting experience coming back. The question is will it help a team whose eight victories last year are the most by WVU since joining the Big 12 Conference in 2012.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Mountaineers from Morgantown are 9-0 ATS as conference underdogs from Game Ten out.

PLAY ON: at Oklahoma State (10/29)

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2016 QB Rankings
June 22, 2016

*NOTE*- Rankings based on play at collegiate level, not on NFL potential.

1) Deshaun Watson (Clemson) - The true junior nearly led Clemson to its first national title since 1981 last season. Watson completed 67.8 percent of his throws for 4,104 yards with a 35/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also rushed for 1,105 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. As a true freshman in 20014, Watson played in only eight games. With a torn ACL in the regular-season finale, he insisted upon playing and was sensational in leading the Tigers to a win over South Carolina to snap a five-game losing streak to their arch rivals. For his career, Watson has 49 TD passes compared to just 15 interceptions. The Gainesville, GA., product has 17 rushing scores. With Clemson returning nine starters on offense, Watson is poised for another monster campaign.

2) Luke Falk (Washington State) - If you didn’t ride the Wazzu Train to winners galore last season, you missed out. As a true sophomore, Falk led Mike Leach’s team to eight consecutive spread covers in Pac-12 play. He sustained a concussion in a home win over Colorado that caused him to miss a loss at Washington in the regular-season finale, but he returned to lead the Cougars past Miami in the bowl game. During a three-game winning streak in games at Oregon, vs. Oregon State and at Arizona, Falk threw 16 TD passes. He finished the year completing 69.4 percent of his passes for 4,561 yards with a 38/8 TD-INT ratio. With his favorite target and All-American candidate WR Gabe Marks back in the mix, there’s no reason to think the Cougars won’t field one of the nation’s most dynamic offenses again in 2016.

3) Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) - With offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley back calling plays, Baker Mayfield is going to have another stellar season for the Sooners. He led OU to the CFP last season by completing 68.1 percent of his throws for 3,700 yards and 36 TDs compared to just seven interceptions. Mayfield also rushed for 405 yards and seven TDs. He has one of the best RBs in the country (Samaje Perine) to keep defenses off balance. Mayfield will miss his favorite target Sterling Shepard, but senior DeDe Westbrook is ready to assume that role after hauling in 46 receptions for 743 yards and four TDs.

4) Chad Kelly (Ole Miss) - ‘Swag’ Kelly proved to be as advertised after his troublesome journey from Clemson to East Mississippi to Oxford. After tearing his ACL, arguing with coaches on the sidelines during a spring game and subsequently getting arrested, Dabo Swinney cut ties with Kelly. But after dominating JUCO ball for a season, Kelly landed at Ole Miss and led the Rebels to 10 wins and its first Sugar Bowl appearance in decades. The nephew of Jim Kelly, the NFL Hall of Fame QB, ‘Swag’ connected on 65.1 percent of his passes for 4,042 yards with a 31/13 TD-INT ratio. Kelly also ran for 500 yards and 10 scores. Those numbers shredded Eli Manning’s single-season records in school annals. Although Laquon Treadwell bolted for the NFL a year early, Kelly has a nice set of WRs returning led by Quincy Adeboyejo.


5) Greg Ward Jr. (Houston) - Ward has accounted for 61 TDs combined TDs passing, rushing and receiving in three seasons with the Cougars. He had a breakout campaign in 2015, completing 67.2 percent of his throws for 2,828 yards with a 17/6 TD-INT ratio. Even better, Ward rushed for 1,108 yards and 21 scores. If not for an injury that kept Ward on the sidelines for much of an upset loss (by three) at UConn, Houston would’ve probably gone unbeaten last year. Ward and the Cougars can make a major splash in Week 1 if they can upset Oklahoma.

6) Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech) - If the Red Raiders had any semblance of a defense, Mahomes would be a much bigger name at this point. Consider this: Texas Tech lost a game to TCU when it scored 52 points and also fell to Oklahoma State when it scored 53. Mahomes led the Red Raiders to a 35-24 win at Arkansas by connecting on 26-of-30 throws for 243 yards. He also ran for 58 yards and two TDs on 10 carries against the Razorbacks. For the season, Mahomes threw for 4,653 yards and 36 TDs. He also rushed for 456 yards and 10 scores despite dealing with nagging knee and ankle injuries at various points during his true sophomore campaign. He has a 52/19 career TD-INT ratio.

7) Seth Russell (Baylor) - Although an injury sidelined him after seven games last season, Russell still threw for 2,104 yards with a 29/6 TD-INT ratio. He also ran for 402 yards and six TDs. And let’s remember that all seven of those games were blowouts, so Russell was posting those stats by playing in only 2-3 quarters per game. In other words, Russell was on his way to throwing for more than 4,000 yards and 50 TDs. For his career, Russell has a 40/10 TD-INT ratio and 12 rushing scores.

8) J.T. Barrett (Ohio State) - With Cardale Jones winning the starting job last August, Barrett wasn’t able to pick up where he left off in 2014. When Braxton Miller went down with a season-ending injury that year, Barrett earned third-team All-American honors by throwing for 2,834 yards and 34 TDs, while also rushing for 938 yards and 11 TDs. Barrett was in and out of the lineup last season, throwing for only 992 yards with an 11/4 TD-INT ratio. He rushed for 682 yards and 11 scores. With the job all his again this year. Barrett could be poised for his biggest stats season to date.

9) Taysom Hill and Tanner Mangum (BYU) - Hill went down with a season-ending injury in the 2015 opener at Nebraska, so true freshman Tanner Mangum came in and threw a game-winning TD pass on Hail Mary as time expired. Then a week later at home vs. Boise State, Mangum threw another game-winning TD pass on fourth down in the final minute. He would go on to throw for 3,377 yards and 23 TDs. Mangum is a pure passer, while Hill is a between-the-tackles runner who reminds many of Tim Tebow with his size and strength. In his 27-game career, Hill has thrown for 4,606 yards and 31 TDs while also rushing for 2,215 yards and 24 TDs. How new head coach Kalani Sitake handles the playing time for this duo remains to be seen, but the Cougars’ offense figures to be dynamic regardless of whom is under center, especially since RB Jamaal Williams is back after a one-year suspension.

10) Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) - Zaire was off to a great start in a season-opening win over Texas and the early going of a Week 2 game at Virginia before sustaining a season-ending injury. He had completed 26-of-40 passes for 428 yards and four TDs without an interception. Zaire had also rushed for 103 yards on 19 totes. Kizer filled in well as a redshirt freshman, throwing for 2,880 yards and 21 TDs. He also ran for 520 yards and 10 scores. Brian Kelly will have a big decision to make going into this year’s opener in Austin.

BEST OF THE REST:

Josh Dobbs (Tennessee), Josh Rosen (UCLA), Brady Kaaya (Miami), Lamar Jackson (Louisville) and Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State).

Dobbs has the talent and the flash, but can he get it done at crunch time in UT’s biggest games? Can Rosen avoid a sophomore slump and not get caught up in his own hype? How will Kaaya adjust to the new coaching staff? Can Jackson match his talent with consistency? Will Rudolph exceed the numbers he produced as a sophomore?

Whether it be injury concerns, a lack of experience or other variables, several other signal callers haven’t been mentioned but might be poised for big 2016 seasons. Those QBs include Jake Browning (Washington), Jacob Eason (Georgia), Quinton Flowers (South Fla.), Gunner Kiel (Cincinnati), Anu Solomon (Arizona), Brett Rypien (Boise State) and Brent Stockstill (Middle Tennessee )

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Hot Seat Coaches
June 8, 2016

Rich Rodriguez, Arizona...Rich-Rod's not-so-subtle December pursuit of other job openings (reportedly including Virginia Tech and Miami-Florida) left more than a few uncomfortable with the immediate future of the program in Tucson. Consistent winning has been hard to maintain at Arizona since Dick Tomey was dismissed in 2003, and Rich-Rod's curiosity suggests he might be the one to prompt a change with the Wildcats. But after slipping from 10 wins a year ago to 7 in 2015, a dip under .500 would likely get the rumor mill whirring regardless in the desert. We can already see the end of the Rodriguez regime not too far down the road in Tucson, though the coach might eventually beat any gathering posse out of town.

Todd Graham, Arizona State...Graham's history of job-jumping, having left previous assignments at Rice and Pitt after just one season, suggests he, like Rodriguez, is apt to have his eyes on openings elsewhere. Pac-12 sources believe that someday Graham would like to return to his native Texas, where a couple of jobs could be opening in the near future. In the meantime, however, Graham has to worry about keeping the Sun Devils afloat, as his career in Tempe is taking on many of the characteristics of predecessor Dennis Erickson, who was feted early in his regime before things went sour. For Graham, the just-completed 6-7 campaign represents his worst record with the Sun Devils, who will be breaking in another new starting QB this fall after the graduation of Mike Bercovici. ASU support is notoriously impatient, and another slip below .500 puts Graham in serious trouble. Though, like counterpart Rich-Rod at Tucson, Graham likely takes an escape route out of town if the walls appear to be closing in around him.

Gus Malzahn, Auburn...Regional sources report that Malzahn is on a short leash at Auburn after a couple of disappointing seasons in a row. Remember, the Tigers dismissed Malzahn predecessor Gene Chizik just two years after he won the national title in 2010. Malzahn reportedly was eyeing some of the recent openings at Miami and even South Carolina, and has the advantage of being a client of super-agent Jimmy Sexton. But sources say competing with the Nick Saban machine at Alabama has begun to wear on Malzahn, which means a double-barreled assault, as Tiger alums and boosters are notoriously impatient. Another underachieving 2016 greases Malzahn's skid out of Jordan-Hare Stadium. Remember, this is the SEC, where memories are short.

Jim Grobe, Baylor...The situation in Waco was turned upside-down in May after the disturbing off-field issues that resulted in the dismissal of HC Art Briles, and resignations of AD Ian McCaw and chanceller Kenneth Starr. The well-respected Grobe, who last coached at Wake Forest three years ago, has been hired on an interim basis to shepherd the program for 2016. Whether Baylor looks for a former branch of the Briles tree, such as Tulsa HC Philip Montgomery, sticks with Grobe, or goes in a new direction after the season, remains to be seen.

Brad Lambert, Charlotte...Lambert has been the only coach Charlotte football has ever known, leading the program from its inception in 2013. So it might be unreasonable to put him on this list. But in this day and age of college football, few coaches are completely safe, even those at nascent programs such as Charlotte; witness the pressure Larry Coker recently felt at fellow start-up UTSA, prompting Coker's recent resignation. The 49ers were 2-10 this past season and will be expected to make at least modest progress in 2016. Any regression could signal that Lambert isn't the man for a program that believes it should be on the map, and soon.

Tommy Tuberville, Cincinnati...The Bearcats' meek surrender in the Hawaii Bowl vs. San Diego State has turned up the heat on Tuberville, as Cincy's late-season efforts also included a 65-point allowance vs. South Florida. The Bearcat program already seems to be regressing from the highs it achieved during the Brian Kelly and Butch Jones years, and last season's 7-6 mark was not exactly a sign of progress. Possible issues with QB Gunner Kiel, scheduled to be a fifth-year senior in the fall but not with the team for bowl game in Hawaii (and a thumping loss to San Diego State), might be another situation to watch. Tuberville, who beat a forming posse out of Texas Tech after 2012, might have another quick escape up his sleeve if things begin to go pear-shaped at Nippert Stadium.

Mike MacIntyre, Colorado...Some Pac-12 sources thought "Coach Mac" might not survive 2015, his third straight losing season since being hired in Boulder. MacIntyre has yet to win more than four games with the Buffs, and the magic work he did previously at San Jose State is being quickly forgotten as CU continues to struggle. The Pac-12 remains a tough neighborhood, and the Buffs (who haven't been "bowling" since 2007, when still a member of the Big 12) have only hinted at a breakthrough. A legit surge to bowl eligibility in 2016 might be required for MacIntyre to stay in the saddle and also keep him a viable candidate down the road at alma mater Vanderbilt, where a faction of alums would like to move out Derek Mason and bring Mac back home, where his dad George (who passed away since the conclusion of last season) coached from 1979-85. But MacIntyre needs to win soon to stay a viable candidate anywhere, even in Boulder.

Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan...The task in Ypsilanti might be the most thankless in the FBS ranks, and Creighton might not be up to it after winning big at lower-level Wabash and Drake. But the just-completed 1-11 for the Eagles, after a 2-10 mark in Creighton's debut the season before, means progress at EMU remains hard to measure, with no more than two wins in any season since 2010. Like immediate predecessors Jeff Genyk and Ron English, the Creighton regime also appears destined to run aground at Rynearson Stadium.

Tim DeRuyter, Fresno State...Not long ago DeRuyter was considered an up-and-comer and a candidate for Pac-12 openings at Cal and Colorado. Now he is looking over his shoulder after back-to-back sub-.500 seasons and an unsightly 3-9 this past campaign. Some Mountain West sources believe DeRuyter was handed a loaded roster (including future NFL QB Derek Carr) from predecessor Pat Hill, which makes the dropoffs in 2014 & '15 a bit understandable but no less alarming. DeRuyter had the excuse of an extremely young roster in 2015, but another 3-9 or similar mark in 2016 turns the heat way up, as it would confirm the recent steep descent of the program.

Paul Petrino, Idaho...The pressure is not great in Moscow, where the Vandals have already announced they are downgrading to FCS status and full-time enrollment in the Big Sky beginning in 2017. In the meantime, remember that a few years ago the Vandals ran off a coach (Robb Akey) who got them to a rare bowl game in 2009. Petrino's record improved to 4-8 in 2015 after back-to-back 1-win campaigns, but that isn't enough to keep the war drums from beating, even at Idaho. A well-publicized confrontation with one of the Vandals' few beat writers last August has already landed Petrino in some trouble, and another sub-.500 mark in the Sun Belt might be too much to overcome.

Bill Snyder, Kansas State...There will never be any resignation pressure at K-State for Snyder, whose name appears on this list solely because some regional observers believe Snyder might decide to call it quite after the 2016 season, when Snyder turns 77. Snyder is effectively coaching year-to-year at this stage of his career, and he has recently announced that he will return for 2016. Beyond that, however, is anyone's guess, though Snyder is currently signed thru 2017.

Paul Haynes, Kent State...Kent State is not Ohio State, so there is usually little pressure on a coach with a losing record at Dix Stadium. Three losing years in a row, however, is a different story, and Haynes has not recorded a mark better than 4-8 since his first season heading the Golden Flashes in 2013. Even in the MAC, that sort of consistent losing is a problem, especially since Haynes replaced the successful Darrell Hazell, who moved to Purdue after getting Kent State to a bowl in the 2012 season.

Mark Stoops, Kentucky...There isn't as much pressure on Kentucky football as there is Kentucky basketball, but even with a relatively low threshold for safety, Stoops walks a thin line after failing to get the Cats to a bowl in his three years on the job. The past two seasons have been especially frustrating, as Kentucky has collapsed after fast starts, including this past season when fading to lose six of its last seven after a 4-1 start. In 2013, UK lost six straight after beginning 5-1. SEC sources say Stoops needs at least a minor bowl this coming season, as even Wildcat football fans have some expectations.

Les Miles, LSU...Annually on the hot seat in one of the nation’s most-demanding jobs, Miles look like a dead man walking at the end of last season before being thrown an unexpected lifeline in late November. That, however, might only prove a temporary stay of execution, though there is hope the exasperating offense might have finally turned the corner in a 56-27 Texas Bowl rout of Texas Tech Now Purdue transfer Danny Etling arrives to battle holdover Brandon Harris for the QB job, which this year might not mean much more than handing off to Heisman contender RB Leonard Fournette. Still, Tiger QBs have been notorious for the lack of progress in the recent years of the Miles regime, and the Baton Rouge faithful, while appreciative of the high-level recruiting maintained by the Miles staff, do not want to see reruns of the often-unwatchable offenses of the past few years. Miles might need a big season to survive into 2017.

Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss...The past few years have been a renaissance of sorts at Ole Miss in the best run of success since the Johnny Vaught era. But Freeze has been caught in some off-field crossfire with several controversies involving numerous players that have threatened to undermine all of the progress made since 2012. Though Freeze is not likely to land in hot water because of team performance, further escalation of those off-field distractions puts Freeze and his staff in the crosshairs.

Mike Riley, Nebraska...The Huskers were assuredly the best 6-7 team in the nation this past season, but Riley was not hired from Oregon State a year ago to shepherd a descent into mediocrity. Nebraska would lose five games in maddening, last-minute fashion in 2015, prompting some Husker backers to wonder why they had dismissed Bo Pelini, who could have just as easily lose almost every close decision. In the end, Riley might have been saved by a rousing early-November win over Michigan State, and the Huskers' bowl pounding of UCLA temporarily removed some pressure into the offseason. But another losing record in 2016 might prompt some Husker administrators into believing they made a mistake, as not even Bill Callahan posted back-to-back losing seasons before being dismissed after 2007.

Darrell Hazell, Purdue...Some Big Ten sources were wondering if Hazell would survive 2015 if the Boilermakers missed a bowl game for the third straight season on his watch. Not only did Purdue, miss, it didn't come close, regressing to 2-10, putting Hazell at a not-so-robust 6-30 in three years on the job at Ross-Ade Stadium. Failure to land a postseason slot in 2016 would likely prompt a revolt by whatever boosters are remaining in West Lafayette, so Hazell enters next season not only on the hot seat, but also as one of the coaches most likely to walk the plank before the campaign completes.

Ron Caragher, San Jose State...The Orlando Cure Bowl win over Georgia State was a nice way to end the season, but it only got the Spartans to 6-7, and Caragher has overseen a decline in the program since succeeding Mike MacIntyre in 2013. Some Mountain West observers thought Caragher might be in trouble this season until the unexpected bowl lifeline. More regression next season, however, will likely spell problems for Caragher, who has yet to post a winning record in three seasons since his hire from USD.

Clay Helton, Southern Cal...Don't let the full-time appointment AD Pat Haden bestowed upon Helton prior to the Pac-12 title game vs. Stanford suggest that the new coach is in the clear. Haden has since retired and Helton will be working for a new AD and another former Trojan great, Lynn Swann. And since some Pac-12 insiders already believe the job is too big for Helton, a repeat of recent messy scenarios at SC could be on the horizon. Note that the Trojans are 0-2 since Helton had the interim label stripped by Haden, and SC will be breaking in a new QB when it opens next season vs. Alabama in Arlington. The possibility of an 0-3 break from the gate by Helton is hardly a way to endear himself to some of college football's most demanding fans.

Butch Jones, Tennessee...Jones is facing pressure from two fronts as 2016 approaches. Off-field issues involving Vol players have cast the program in an unflattering light, and how deep those accusations eventually dig could negatively impact the coaching staff and administrators. But Jones has enough trouble on the football field, with expectations sky-high in Knoxville and the Vols considered the team to beat in the SEC East. Last year, UT was probably the best team in the East but lost four games in close fashion, and strategy proving costly especially in the Florida loss when eschewing an obvious 2-point conversion try when up 12 in the 4th Q, in a game the Vols eventually lost by a 28-27 count. All adding to the perceptions that Jones might not be the best game coach. It is unlikely they will be awarding any mulligans at Neyland Stadium this fall if UT disappoints and falls short of expectations in Butch’s fourth season.

Charlie Strong, Texas... No seat might be hotter than Strong's after the Longhorns missed a bowl last season. Texas hasn't lost more games in a two-year stretch than it has on Strong;'s watch since 1955-56, preceding the Darrell Royal hire. Moreover, the Horns have often looked uncompetitive and the offense has fallen behind the high-tech race in the Big 12, which prompted Strong to seek a new offensive coordinator and landing upon Tulsa's Sterlin Gilbert, who will try to implement a Baylor quick-strike style, likely with true frosh QB Shane Buechele at the controls. Texas, which ranked 118th nationally in pass offense last season, has nowhere to go but up on the attack end, but the improvements need to be drastic and for Texas to get to 8 or 9 wins to give Strong a chance to last into 2017.

Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M...The recent forced resignation of Aggie AD Eric Hyman, ostensibly because he was such a pro-Sumlin supporter, should be a warning sign for the A&M coach, who has presided over three consecutive disappointing seasons at Kyle Field after his rousing debut with "Johnny Football" in 2012. Since then, however, the situation would sour with Manziel and a succession of other QBs (six in all) who have left College Station early during Sumlin's four seasons in charge, including both of this past season's QBs, Kyle Allen (transferring to Houston) and Kyler Murray (bound for Oklahoma). With the Aggies not competing at the top level of the SEC West in the past three seasons either, Sumlin has suddenly found himself in the crosshairs. It has been reported that Sumlin was once high on the list of potential college-to-NFL coaches, and Sumlin might still be desirous of such a move, but his marketability could be on the wane. Along with Gus Malzahn at Auburn, Sumlin's situation looms as one of the most treacherous in the SEC entering 2016.

Derek Mason, Vanderbilt...Though the Dores were a tough out in 2015, they have descended noticeably in two years under Mason, who hasn't come close to matching the stretch of bowl visits that highlighted predecessor James Franklin's regime. Moreover, the Dore offense has become unspeakably boring as the team has become painful to watch under Mason. With local support evaporating in the two losing seasons on Mason's watch, many alums are voicing their displeasure. Mason's fate, however, is aligned closely to Commodore Vice Chancellor for Athletics (the Dores' fancy name for their AD) David Williams, who is staunchly in Mason's corner. As long as Williams remains on the job, SEC sources believe Mason has a safety blanket for at least a couple of more years, but that won't stop some of the disgruntled alums from hoping.

Craig Bohl, Wyoming...Bohl's reputation continues to be burnished by the powerhouse he built and situation he left behind at North Dakota State, with the Bison continuing to win FCS titles (now five straight after claiming another last season!) as they did for three consecutive years with Bohl before he moved to Laramie in 2014. Which Bohl might be wondering about these days after back-to-back losing seasons and a painful 2-10 this past season, the Cowboys' worst since Vic Koenning's 2002 team finished with the same record. Wyo's small but hardcore support base knows that it might as well have kept predecessor Dave Christensen for a 6-18 two-year mark (indeed, Christensen never won fewer than nine over any of his two-year spans in Laramie). For the moment, Bohl is said to retain support of the administrators, but anything close to another 2-10, and the former NDSU coach could find himself in the soup at Laramie.

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2016 Coaching Changes
June 21, 2016

There were 29 coaching changes at the FBS level, including 14 at Power Five schools this past offseason since we’ll now count Baylor after its recent dismissal of Art Briles.

Let’s rank those 14 hires before each coach makes his debut at his new school.

1-Bronco Mendenhall (Virginia) - The only potential drawback to this hire is Mendenhall has spent all but one year of his life (as DB coach at La. Tech in 1997) in Utah, Arizona, Oregon or New Mexico. Therefore, he’s going to have to work diligently at establishing recruiting contacts in the Baltimore and Washington D.C. area. He brought six members of his BYU staff with him, retaining only WRs coach and UVA alum Marques Hagans from Mike London’s previous staff. I loved the hire of former East Carolina head coach Ruffin McNeill, who will really help recruiting after nearly four decades spent coaching in the South. Mendenhall is still young at the age of 50 and has 11 years of experience as the head coach at BYU. Mendenhall took all 11 of his teams to bowl games, winning in six of the Cougars’ last eight postseason appearances. Five of his last seven BYU squads posted double-digit win totals with the 2009 team finishing 12th in the nation. UVA has strong academic standards, but Mendenhall has already proven that he can thrive even when faced with the unique challenges like those offered at BYU, including Mormon missions, extremely strict student-conduct rules and convincing African-American players to come play at a religious school with a small percentage of minority students. This won’t be a quick fix but I believe UVA nailed it with this hire.

2-Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech) - The spectacular reign of Frank Beamer in Blacksburg ended with four subpar campaigns, but it’s not as if he hung around a decade too long like Bobby Bowden in Tallahassee. Plus, the Hokies lost 14 one-possession games in Beamer’s last four seasons. So it’s not a massive rebuild for Fuente, who faced that exact scenario when he took his first head-coaching gig at Memphis. Fuente, who is only 39, did an incredible job for the Tigers, who went 19-6 in his third and fourth seasons at the helm. He led Memphis to its first 10-win season since 1938 in 2014, finishing No. 25 in the national rankings. Fuente led the Tigers to an 8-0 start, including a dominant win over Ole Miss, and higher into the rankings last year. Fuente made a wise move by retaining long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster, who has been one of the country’s best over the last two decades. The future looks bright for the Hokies in the weaker division of the ACC.

3-Mark Richt (Miami) - The University of Miami alum went 145-51, including an 83-37 mark in SEC regular-season games, during his 15-year tenure at Georgia. Richt won six SEC East titles and two SEC championships. However, four different SEC schools combined to win nine national championships while UGA was shut out in that department over those 15 seasons. Also, Richt made one of the worst clock-management decisions in college football history when he opted not to spike the ball after a long first-down play late in the fourth quarter of the 2012 SEC Championship Game against Alabama. Nevertheless, this is an outstanding hire for Miami, especially compared to recent moves that resulted in Larry Coker, Randy Shannon and Al Golden running one of college football’s most storied programs. Richt couldn’t quite measure up when taking on the likes of Steve Spurrier, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer, but his path to championships in the ACC won’t be as difficult. Richt routinely brought in Top-10 recruiting classes at UGA, so he’ll improve the talent level at UM quickly. I liked Richt’s hire of Manny Diaz from Mississippi St. as UM’s new defensive coordinator. The demise of the ‘Canes in recent years has caused much consternation in South Fla., but the fan base has to feel much better with Richt at the wheel compared to an outsider like Golden.

4-Lovie Smith (Illinois) - This was a shocking hire considering the circumstances and timing (March 7). But if you’re an Illinois fan, you have to absolutely love it. Smith has been an NFL head coach for 11 seasons, going 81-63 in nine seasons with the Bears. He helped Chicago to the Super Bowl in 2006 when it won 15 games despite inconsistent quarterback play. Smith was a college assistant from 1983-1995, so recruiting isn’t a completely foreign concept to him. Here’s the bottom line: The head coach of the University of Illinois is not named Ron Zook, Tim Beckman or Bill Cubit. Instead, it’s a guy who has coached in the Super Bowl. Furthermore, Smith brought in Hardy Nickerson as his DC, which resulted in Nickerson’s son transferring in from California. Nickerson Jr. will immediately start at linebacker.

5-Matt Campbell (Iowa State) - If you can’t beat him, go hire him. Campbell led Toledo to wins at Arkansas and vs. Iowa St. last season. He went 35-15 at Toledo, including three nine-win seasons. The Cyclones are hoping Campbell is the next former Toledo coach to take a Power Five program to great heights like Nick Saban and Gary Pinkel have done. It will be a great challenge for Campbell, who is taking over the second-most difficult job in the Big 12 behind only Kansas. But he’s 36 with youth on his side and a $1.5 million per year contract. I think this is a good get for Iowa St. Even if Campbell has a lot of success and eventually bolts for a bigger and better job, that’ll be a good thing for the Cyclones, who have finished over .500 just twice in the last 11 years.

6-Kirby Smart (Georgia) - The plan worked. Smart has turned down multiple head-coaching offers through the years while waiting for the gig at his alma mater to open up. Smart spent nine seasons at Alabama, serving as DC the last eight years. He helped Saban win four national titles and the only blemish on his resume is his lack of head-coaching experience. Smart grew up in Bainbridge, Georgia, a small rural town just a few minutes away from the Florida state line. He isn’t as polished as most other SEC coaches in terms of dealing with the media, but the UGA faithful won’t lose a wink of sleep over that if he can win big in Athens. Richt’s time at UGA had run its course and the fan base – at least the majority of it – was ready for something new. Smart passed his first big test by holding off a late charge from Florida for the nation’s No. 1 pro-style QB in Jacob Eason, who might earn the starting job right away after an impressive spring. The 40-year-old knows nine-win seasons aren’t going to cut it for too long. UGA fans are starving for the national title they haven’t tasted since Herschel Walker delivered one in the early 1980s when Vince Dooley stalked the sidelines between the hedges.

7-Will Muschamp (South Carolina) - The Gamecocks made a hard push at Houston’s Tom Herman, thought they had him wrapped up, only for him to change his mind. USC reportedly had talks with Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez as well, in addition to Oklahoma OC Lincoln Riley, but it eventually settled on the former Florida coach. Loyal readers have been down this road with me before. We won’t delve too far deep into what went wrong for Muschamp in Gainesville, but it sure as hell wasn’t recruiting or his ability to build an elite defense. Muschamp has been one of the best defensive minds in all of football (college and pro) for a long time. Many forget that in his second year at UF, he led the Gators to an 11-1 record during the regular season. If Southern Cal QB Matt Barkley had not gone down with a shoulder injury against UCLA, the Trojans would’ve most likely beaten Notre Dame in their regular-season finale at home the following week. Had they done so, Florida would’ve faced Alabama in the 2012 BCS Championship Game rather than the Irish. Muschamp has assembled a strong staff in Columbia and a lot of young players are going to play this year. In 2016, the Gamecocks are going to struggle, especially after losing their best defensive player, Skai Moore, to season-ending neck surgery a few weeks ago. But with Muschamp’s recruiting prowess and ability to build defenses, I think USC fans will be happy with this hire by 2018.

8-Jim Grobe (Baylor) - With the sort of controversy surrounding this program, Baylor couldn’t have found a classier man to lead it through this turmoil than Grobe. Gamblers certainly recall his sensational success as an underdog for most of his tenure at Wake Forest, with the last few years serving as an exception. Grobe is loyal, as evidenced by turning down other jobs (like Arkansas) to stay in Winston Salem. During Riley Skinner’s three years as the Demon Deacons’ starting QB, Grobe won 28 games and led Wake to an 11-3 record and Orange Bowl appearance in 2006. The Deacs went 7-0 ATS as ‘dogs during that ’06 regular season. Without a doubt, this is a challenging situation to walk into. At the same time, however, Grobe takes over a talented team that could contend for a berth in the College Football Playoff. He’ll have to develop chemistry with the retained – at least for now – assistants and his new players fast, but don’t be surprised if that happens.

9-D.J. Durkin (Maryland) - In the last three years as a DC at Florida (2013-14) and Michigan, Durkin has molded his units into some of the best in the country. At the age of 38, he brings plenty of youth and energy. Durkin was able to learn plenty about offense from Jim Harbaugh last season. In his only game as a head coach in the interim role, he led Florida to a win over East Carolina at the Birmingham Bowl two years ago.

10-Dino Babers (Syracuse) - Babers has posted a 37-16 record in four seasons as a head coach at Eastern Illinois and Bowling Green. In his first year with the Falcons, they went 8-6 and won the MAC East division title despite losing star QB Matt Johnson for the season in Week 1. Babers runs an aggressive offense that doesn’t like settling for field goals. The 54-year-old cut his teeth as an assistant all across the nation, including stops at Purdue, San Diego St., UCLA, Arizona, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh and Baylor. He’ll have his work cut out for him at the ‘Cuse, especially in the ACC Atlantic where Clemson, Florida St. and Louisville reside.

11-Barry Odom (Missouri) - Odom played at Missouri and has spent the better part of the last decade and change within the program in one form or another. He helped the Tigers field one of the nation’s top defenses last year, but poor QB play following the suspension of Maty Mauk led to a forgettable last campaign for Gary Pinkel, who otherwise did spectacular work during his 15-year tenure. Pinkel produced double-digit win totals in five of his last nine years. Odom has a tough act to follow, so we’ll see with this selection of someone with zero head-coaching experience.

12-Tracy Claeys (Minnesota) - Claeys has been forced into an interim head-coaching role while working under Jerry Kill on many occasions. He went 4-3 after seizures forced Kill out during the 2013 campaign. After Kill’s health issues forced him to retire midway through last season, the Gophers struggled to a 2-4 finish. This is a tough job, but it’s still one in the Big Ten that I suspect could’ve attracted a bigger name.

13-Clay Helton (Southern Cal) - Last time I checked, this was one of the nation’s most storied programs. It is easily considered one of the top-five jobs in America. Nevertheless, it settled for hiring a coach who has compiled a 6-4 record during two stints as the interim coach at USC. Helton has been in the program since 2010, but those haven’t been the best of times. Why not go get a big name? Why not go get someone not just with head-coaching experience, but a proven winner? I don’t get it.

14-Chris Ash (Rutgers) - Ash has been on Urban Meyer’s staff as co-DC at Ohio St. the last two seasons, but he’s never been a head coach. Rutgers was already a difficult job and it’s even more challenging now that it’s in the Big Ten. I don’t see Ash lighting a fire under the Scarlet Knights.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- I went to great lengths last year to tout a pair of assistant hires as the best of the offseason. Those two hires were Oklahoma offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley and Auburn’s acquisition of Muschamp. Due to a variety reasons, including inept QB play that put extra pressure on a defense that was without star pass rusher Carl Lawson for 11 of 13 games, the Auburn defense didn’t improve as much as I anticipated. However, Riley proved to be the best coordinator hire. The architect of East Carolina’s ‘Air-Raid’ attack that prompted QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy to shred ECU’s record books for passing and receiving, Riley helped Oklahoma make the CFP behind the spectacular play of QB Baker Mayfield.

-- As for this year, I’m going to point to LSU’s slick hire of Wisconsin DC Dave Aranda, who has done a remarkable job of building elite defenses at Wisconsin in recent years. Now Aranda will have more athletic pieces to work with, including 10 starters coming back. This unit should be vastly improved and give LSU a better shot at unseating Alabama in the SEC West.

-- LSU’s defense wasn’t nearly as stout last season after losing DC John Chavis to Texas A&M. I couldn’t stand Les Miles’s hire of Kevin Steele to replace Chavis going into 2015. Likewise, I’m not a fan of Gus Malzahn hiring Steele to replace Muschamp.

-- As for other quality assistant hires, I like DC Bob Shoop to Tennessee, Greg Schiano to Ohio St., Brady Hoke to Oregon (as DC) and DC Jeremy Pruitt back to Alabama.

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Conference Championship Odds
June 7, 2016

Odds to win 2016 ACC Conference Championship Game (12/5/16)
Clemson 7/5
Florida State 2/1
Miami, Fl. 15/2
Louisville 8/1
North Carolina 17/2
Virginia Tech 10/1
Pittsburgh 15/1
Georgia Tech 18/1
N.C. State 20/1
Duke 35/1
Boston College 40/1
Syracuse 50/1
Virginia 50/1
Wake Forest 50/1

Odds to win 2016 Big 10 Conference Championship Game (12/5/16)
Michigan 7/4
Ohio State 7/4
Michigan State 5/1
Iowa 7/1
Nebraska 8/1
Wisconsin 12/1
Penn State 15/1
Northwestern 30/1
Illinois 40/1
Indiana 40/1
Maryland 40/1
Minnesota 40/1
Purdue 60/1
Rutgers 60/1

Odds to win 2016 Mountain West Conference Championship Game (12/5/16)
Boise State 3/2
San Diego State 14/5
San Jose State 11/2
Air Force 13/2
Nevada 15/2
Utah State 9/1
Colorado State 12/1
New Mexico 12/1
UNLV 20/1
Fresno State 25/1
Hawaii 35/1
Wyoming 50/1

Odds to win 2016 Pac-12 Conference Championship Game (12/5/16)
Stanford 13/5
USC 14/5
Oregon 17/4
UCLA 17/4
Washington 6/1
Utah 8/1
Arizona 16/1
Arizona State 16/1
Washington State 16/1
California 20/1
Colorado 30/1
Oregon State 50/1

Odds to win 2016 SEC Conference Championship Game (12/5/16)
Alabama 8/5
LSU 13/4
Tennessee 9/2
Georgia 15/2
Auburn 8/1
Florida 8/1
Ole Miss 12/1
Arkansas 14/1
Texas A&M 15/1
Missouri 25/1
Kentucky 35/1
Miss State 35/1
South Carolina 75/1
Vanderbilt 100/1

Last year's conference champion listed in BOLD.

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South Point releases Win Totals
May 26, 2016

For the first time ever in Nevada sports book history, regular season win totals have been posted on all 128 Division I college football teams. And to make the unprecedented move even more astounding is that it's only May with the first kickoff not occurring until Aug. 27.

The architect of the early numbers is veteran bookmaker Chris Andrews who took over as South Point sports book director in February. He's been hammering away at all the info he can gather on every school since taking over.

"I start compiling everything for all the teams right after the Super Bowl," said Andrews, a Pittsburgh native who has ran Nevada books for 37 years. "I track down what I can get for every school with the local papers and school web sites, and for a few teams the info is pretty hard to come by."

Two weeks ago the South Point was the first in Nevada to post spreads for the first week of college football action and also offered 40 'Games of the Year' numbers for the marquee matchups.

On Thursday he unleashed win totals on every school and offered some insight to key components in his oddsmaking process.

"When I do my ratings for each team, I always lean heavily on the offensive line with returning starters," he said. "I'm a big believer that stability in the offensive line is key for teams performing well early in the schedule. I don't have a math model, but I certainly have a methodology to produce the team ratings and win totals I'm comfortable with."

He's taking a dime on the Power-5 conference teams and a nickel on the other schools.

Last year at this time Andrews was posting his team ratings and win totals as the owner and publisher of AgainstTheNumber.com, which a few sports books outside of Nevada copied and posted for action.

This year, he's now got the additional pressure of not just making solid numbers but also trying to make money for the South Point in his debut for owner Michael Gaughan, but he's very confident.

One of the pitfalls of posting numbers so early is the unknown variables that happen with so much time before the first kickoff.

"We haven't even posted the numbers yet and I'm already doing adjustments from the news of Art Briles being fired this morning," Andrews said. "I had Baylor set at 9.5 wins, but I'm in kind of a wait and see mode with what happens to the rest of the staff, who I'm sure had some kind of knowledge of what was going on there. Who is coming in and who is going? If there is a major overhaul to the remaining staff, we'll make some big adjustments, and not just with Baylor, but with all the teams they play. Right now we've taken everything to do with Baylor (Game of the Year lines, week 1 lines and win totals) off the board."

Andrews said one his most difficult win totals to make was Ohio State, who he set at 9.5 UN -125.

"Ohio State was a tough number to make just because they had to replace so much talent, but between their schedule and Urban Meyer, they should be fine this year. If Nick Saban isn't the best rest recruiter in the nation then it's definitely Urban. I like Oklahoma to win against them, but they'll get better as the season goes along. They'll be a much better team in November than September."

Andrews made Oklahoma -7 as one of his 40 'Games of the Year' for the Buckeyes Sept. 17 game at Norman.

Last week the Golden Nugget posted totals on 24 teams with Ohio State set at 8.5 wins setting up a nice middle opportunity for bettors hoping for Ohio State to win nine games. For nine wins to happen, three losses have to come somewhere. Oklahoma looks like one, maybe a road loss at either Wisconsin or Michigan State, and then maybe a revenge minded Michigan at Columbus Nov. 26.

"I think Michigan is going to be real good," Andrews said.

Two teams posted with the highest win total were Clemson and Boise State set at 10.5

"See if you can find me two losses on that Boise State schedule," he said.

Here's a look at all the win totals for every school from Air Force and Appalachian State to Wisconsin and Wyoming:

Conference Breakdown

2016 WIN TOTALS - SOUTH POINT LAS VEGAS
School Win Total Money
Air Force 8 Over -110 Under -110
Akron 5 Over -110 Under -110
Alabama 10 Over +100 Under -120
Appalachian State 8.5 Over -110 Under -110
Arizona 6 Over -110 Under -110
Arizona State 5 Over -120 Under +100
Arkansas 7.5 Over -120 Under +100
Arkansas State 7.5 Over +100 Under -120
Army 4.5 Over -110 Under -110
Auburn 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
Ball State 4.5 Over -110 Under -110
Baylor 9.5 Over +100 Under -120
Boise State 10.5 Over -110 Under -110
Boston College 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
Bowling Green 7 Over -110 Under -110
Buffalo 5.5 Over -110 Under -110
BYU 8 Over +105 Under -125
California 4 Over -120 Under +100
Central Florida 5 Over -110 Under -110
Central Michigan 7 Over -120 Under +100
Charlotte 2.5 Over -120 Under +100
Cincinnati 6.5 Over -130 Under +110
Clemson 10.5 Over -110 Under -110
Colorado 4.5 Over -110 Under -110
Colorado State 5.5 Over -110 Under -110
Connecticut 5 Over +100 Under -120
Duke 5.5 Over -110 Under -110
East Carolina 5.5 Over +105 Under-125
Eastern Michigan 3 Over -110 Under -110
Fla International 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
Florida 7.5 Over -125 Under +105
Florida Atlantic 4.5 Over -110 Under -110
Florida State 9.5 Over +100 Under -120
Fresno State 3.5 Over -125 Under +105
Georgia 8.5 Over -110 Under -110
Georgia Southern 8 Over -110 Under -110
Georgia State 4.5 Over +105 Under-125
Georgia Tech 6.5 Over +100 Under -120
Hawaii 2.5 Over -120 Under +100
Houston 9.5 Over -135 Under +115
Idaho 3.5 Over -125 Under +105
Illinois 4.5 Over -110 Under -110
Indiana 4.5 Over -110 Under -110
Iowa 8.5 Over -110 Under -110
Iowa State 3.5 Over +100 Under -120
Kansas 1.5 Over -110 Under -110
Kansas State 5.5 Over -120 Under +100
Kent State 4.5 Over -120 Under +100
Kentucky 5 Over -110 Under -110
Louisiana Tech 7.5 Over -110 Under -110
Louisville 9 Over +110 Under -130
LSU 10 Over +100 Under -120
Marshall 8.5 Over -125 Under +105
Maryland 4.5 Over +110 Under -130
Massachusetts 2.5 Over -110 Under -110
Memphis 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
Miami Fl. 6.5 Over -125 Under +105
Miami Ohio 3.5 Over +100 Under -120
Michigan 10 Over -110 Under -110
Michigan State 7.5 Over -130 Under +110
Middle Tenn State 7.5 Over -110 Under -110
Minnesota 6 Over -110 Under -110
Mississippi 8.5 Over +100 Under -120
Mississippi State 6.5 Over -120 Under +100
Missouri 5.5 Over -110 Under -110
Navy 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
NC State 6 Over -110 Under -110
Nebraska 8.5 Over -110 Under -110
Nevada 6.5 Over -120 Under +100
New Mexico 7 Over -120 Under +100
New Mexico State 3 Over -110 Under -110
North Carolina 8.5 Over -125 Under +105
North Texas 2 Over -110 Under -110
Northern Illinois 8.5 Over -120 Under +100
Northwestern 6.5 Over -120 Under +100
Notre Dame 9.5 Over +110 Under-130
Ohio 7.5 Over +100 Under -120
Ohio State 9.5 Over +105 Under -125
Oklahoma 10 Over -110 Under -110
Oklahoma State 8.5 Over -110 Under -110
Old Dominion 5 Over +100 Under -120
Oregon 8 Over -110 Under -110
Oregon State 3.5 Over -110 Under -110
Penn State 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
Pittsburgh 7 Over +100 Under -120
Purdue 4.5 Over -110 Under -110
Rice 6 Over +100 Under -120
Rutgers 4.5 Over -125 Under +105
San Diego State 8.5 Over -130 Under +110
San Jose State 5 Over -110 Under -110
SMU 3.5 Over -120 Under +100
South Alabama 3 Over -110 Under -110
South Carolina 5 Over -110 Under -110
South Florida 8.5 Over -110 Under -110
Southern Miss 8 Over -110 Under -110
Stanford 8.5 Over +100 Under -120
Syracuse 4 Over -110 Under -110
TCU 8 Over -125 Under -105
Temple 8.5 Over -120 Under +100
Tennessee 9.5 Over +105 Under -125
Texas 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
Texas A&M 6 Over -120 Under +100
Texas San Antonio 4 Over -110 Under -110
Texas State 3 Over -110 Under -110
Texas Tech 7 Over -110 Under -110
Toledo 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
Troy 6 Over -110 Under -110
Tulane 3.5 Over -110 Under -110
Tulsa 6.5 Over -120 Under +100
UCLA 8.5 Over +100 Under -120
UL-Lafayette 6.5 Over -110 Under -110
UL-Monroe 3.5 Over -110 Under -110
UNLV 5.5 Over -110 Under -110
USC 7.5 Over +100 Under -120
Utah 7.2 Over +100 Under -120
Utah State 6.5 Over -130 Under +110
UTEP 5 Over -110 Under -110
Vanderbilt 5 Over -110 Under -110
Virginia 4.5 Over -130 Under +110
Virginia Tech 6.5 Over -130 Under +110
Wake Forest 5.5 Over +110 Under -130
Washington 9 Over -110 Under -110
Washington State 7.5 Over -110 Under -110
West Virginia 6.5 Over -130 Under +110
Western Kentucky 8.5 Over +110 Under -130
Western Michigan 8.5 Over +100 Under -120
Wisconsin 7 Over -110 Under -110
Wyoming 3.5 Over -110 Under -110

Odds Subject to Change - updated 5.26.16

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2016 College Football Betting Preview: Stanford Cardinal

The Stanford Cardinal will be a national title contender for one really good reason. That reason is the Heisman runner up from a season ago – Christian McCaffrey. The running back will miss his quarterback from a season ago, but the running back alone should be enough to sell a ton of tickets.

Can the Stanford Cardinal get back to the Rose Bowl, or even further this season? Remember, Stanford was one of the more impressive bowl season winners a season ago. Iowa was blown out nearly before the game even started. Let’s look at the 2016 Stanford Cardinal.

Heisman Leading the Offense

The offense will certainly miss their signal caller. Keller Chryst, a sophomore will get the nod, with Ryan Burns behind him. The Cardinal will certainly use their running back, McCaffrey early and often. Bryce Love and Daniel Marx will be ready when the Heisman runner up needs a blow, or in case of injury.

Michael Rector and Trenton Irwin will be the top targets to throw to for Chryst, with Francis Owusu also in the mix. With McCaffrey alone, the Cardinal should be in pretty good shape to score in 2016.

Stanford Known for Tough Defense

Defensively, the Stanford Cardinal are known for their ability to slam the door on opposing running backs. The Cardinal should not have many problems filling in on some of their missing pieces from a season ago. Several starting defensive players left for Stanford, but they brought in a great class.

The Cardinal strong safety Dallas Lloyd has great speed, and is a great ball hawk. Look for the big nasty guys up front to put tons of pressure on the quarterback during the season, and beyond.

Cardinal 2016 Slate

The Stanford Cardinal start the season with two straight home games. Neither game will be an easy task, with Kansas State in the opener, followed by the Pac-12 opener against the USC Trojans. The Cardinal then go on the road for two games; at the UCLA Bruins and Washington Huskies.

Following that, Stanford will come back home and host Washington State. The sixth game of the season for Stanford is a trip to Notre Dame. The Cardinal finish their 2016 regular season with a home game against Colorado, a trip to Arizona, home games against Oregon State and Rice, sandwiched by road games at Oregon and California.

Betting on Stanford

When you are ready to make some bets on the Stanford Cardinal; the first you want to look at is their Week 1 battle at home against the Kansas State Wildcats. Stanford comes into the game as a touchdown favorite. You can grab the Wildcats at -7 right now at Bookmaker.

The win total for the Stanford Cardinal is listed second behind Washington. The Stanford Cardinal total is listed at 8.5. With the schedule we gave to you, it appears the Cardinals should win more than 8 games. To win the national championship, the Cardinal will need some help.

It’s not out of the realm of possibility, as Stanford has one of the best players in the country. The Stanford Cardinal come in listed 10th in odds, with a 28/1 listing to win it all at BetDSI.

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2016 College Football Betting Preview: Ole Miss Rebels

Plenty of drama in the off-season for the Ole Miss Rebels, but one thing is for sure, if they remain healthy, and out of trouble, they have a load of talent. The schedule for Ole Miss is the one thing that is going to keep them out of that national title picture.

The Rebels 2016 schedule is brutal. The offense should be able to put points on the board again this season, and the defense has some big nasties. Let’s take a look at the Ole Miss Rebels for the 2016 season. Here is their 2016 College Football Betting Preview.

Rebels Offense

Chad Kelly should be the main man in the Ole Miss offense. The Senior Quarterback has had all sorts of drama, but is ready to put those things behind him and use guys like Damore’ea Stringellow and Quincy Adeboyejo to score, and score often.

The Rebels have 7 starters back on offense. The running back position is there there are some question marks for this Hugh Freeze led team. It looks like Jordan Wilkins will get the first opportunity, while Akeem Judd is a guy to look out for.

Ole Miss Defense

There are 7 guys that Hugh Freeze will bring back from last season on the Ole Miss defense. The biggest name is defensive end Marquis Haynes. The Junior is quite the nuisance for opposing offenses.

Guys like Fador Brown, Tony Bridges and Kendarius Webster got great experience a season ago, and should be ready to compete every down. The Rebels offense is going to score, the big question – will the defense be able to do their share of the work as well?

Ole Miss 2016 Opponents

Anytime you play out of the SEC; you are going to find yourself playing a pretty tough schedule. That is the case with the 2016 Ole Miss Rebels. The Rebels do not play a true road game until October 15th, but they start the season with a neutral site game against one of the top teams in the nation; Florida State.

Following that, the Rebels will host Wofford, but then welcome Alabama, Georgia and Memphis to town. Just when you thought things may get easier, the Rebels will play back to back road games at Arkansas and LSU. Home games against Auburn and Georgia Southern come up next for the Rebels.

The final three games of the season for Ole Miss include games at Texas A+M, at Vanderbilt, and a home game with Mississippi State.

Betting on the Rebels

It just not seem like a season where you would want to bet on the Ole Miss Rebels to win the national title. Not only do they face Alabama and LSU in conference play, they also start the season against Florida State.

Those are three of the top teams in the country. The schedule is too tough for Ole Miss. The 32/1 odds is not real enticing. To win the SEC is a tough task as well. The Ole Miss Rebels can be had at +300 (at Bookmaker) to win the SEC, behind Alabama and LSU.

You saw the Ole Miss schedule, how many wins are on that schedule? You can bet over or under 8.5 on the Ole Miss Rebels in 2016. What a game that Week 1 tilt will be. Actually, Ole Miss is +5 against Florida State at most of our top sportsbooks.

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2016 College Football Betting Preview: Washington Huskies

The Washington Huskies have got to be tired of hearing the same names over and over in the Pac-12. The Oregon Ducks, the Stanford Cardinal and the USC Trojans are names we have heard from many years. Even the Arizona Wildcats and California Bears get more credit, and heck Arizona State has been heard of as well.

Now is the time for Washington to figure out how to get on the national title picture. The Huskies are many pundits choice to come away with the title out of the Big 12 in 2016. Here is a 2016 College Football Preview for the Washington Huskies.

Washington Lost just Four Starters

The offense from a season ago for the Washington Huskies lost just four players. Those players will have quick replacements in the Huskies offense. Jake Browning, the quarterback should be ahead of K.J. Carta-Samuels, but both may get chances to play throughout the season.

Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman will get the carries in the back field, while Brayden Lenius, Isaiah Renford and Dante Pettis are the top receivers for the Huskies. Washington tends to use a two tight end set at time, which should give Drew Sample and Darrell Daniels some looks.

Huskies Defense also Features Returnees

Not just the offense for the Washington Huskies has guys returning from a season ago. The defense has talent back, and big, strong, fast guys that should fare well against Pac-12 offenses. The Huskies will use Joe Mathis as their stud defensive end, and he will be joined by Elijah Qualls, Greg Gaines, Keishawn Bierria and Azeem Victor.

The Huskies are one of the top recruiting schools this past off-season, so be sure to realize youngsters are going to be seen on the field early and often!

Huskies 2016 Schedule

The Washington Huskies start the season with a trio of home games in which, let’s be honest – they should win, and win big. The Huskies host Rutgers, Idaho and then Portland State. Following that, Washington will start Pac-12 play with a road game at Arizona.

The final game in a five week September will be on a Friday night against Stanford. Three out of the next four games are on the road for Washington. The first is at Oregon, and the final two are at Utah and California. The lone home game during that time will be against the Oregon State Beavers.

The final trio of games for Washington are at home against USC, at home against Arizona State, and then on the road at the Washington State Cougars.

Betting on Washington

It’s not real often you talk about the Washington Huskies winning the national title, but maybe this is their opportunity. The Huskies have a tough schedule, but will need to have many things go the right way for this to happen.

Washington is listed at 45/1 at MyBookie to win the national title. The Washington Huskies are the largest win total in the Pac-12. The Huskies are listed at 9 wins, and you have the chance to bet the over or the under. Maybe, you want to bet on the Huskies to win the Pac-12; take a chance, and go for it.

The odds are just as good as any other team. Pretty much grab them at even money. The Washington Huskies have a cupcake game in Week 1 against Rutgers. You can grab the Huskies at -235 over at BetDSI.

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2016 College Football Betting Preview: UCLA Bruins

What a wild season the UCLA Bruins are going to go up against this season. They do not have a favorable schedule, but with their talent, they are going to have a chance to win every game all season long. The Bruins are in the Pac-12, which of course is going to be among the best in all of college football.

The folks out in Los Angeles, would love to see their beloved Bruins have a chance to win the entire thing. Let’s take a look at the 2016 College Football Betting Preview for the UCLA Bruins.

UCLA Offense in 2016

Josh Rosen is back for his sophomore season behind center for the UCLA Bruins. Rosen is ahead of head coach’s Rick Neuheisel’s son, Jerry at the quarterback position. Rosen has all the goods, and many are projecting him to be in for a sensational season.

His fullback is Nate Iese, while Soso Jamabo should get plenty of carries. The three receivers for the Bruins appear to be Kenneth Walker, Darren Andrews and Stephen Johnson. The big uglies up front for UCLA are talented, and will be up for the task in the Pac-12.

Defensively, Bruins have a Bunch Returning

The UCLA Bruins know that out of the Pac-12, they are going to have to defend the football. That’s why they are pleased to see many of their starters from a season ago return. Guys like Takkarist McKinley, Eli Anjou and Deon Hollins are poised to put together a solid season.

In the defensive back field Marcus Rios and Randall Goforth are the seniors, while John Johnson and Jaleel Wadood have great talent. The Bruins will match their defense up against the rest of the Pac-12 and take their chances.

Bruins 2016 Schedule

Things do not start out easy for the UCLA Bruins. They will start the season with a road game in College Station. The Bruins at Texas A+M is one of the most intriguing Week 1 games. Following that, the Bruins host UNLV. A trip to Brigham Young in Week 3 will prepare them for the Pac-12 season to start.

UCLA will start conference play with two straight home games; with Stanford and Arizona. The Bruins then go on the road at the Arizona State Sun Devils. Following that, UCLA is on the road at Washington State, before coming back home to Utah. The final four games of the season are at Colorado, with Oregon State, with USC and on the road at the California Golden Bears.

Betting on UCLA in 2016

When you are looking at the UCLA Bruins to win a national title, there are 15 teams ahead of them when it comes to odds. The UCLA Bruins are listed at 40/1 odds over at BetDSI, which is tied with programs such as Georgia, TCU and USC. When it comes to winning the Pac-12, as we said, they are tied with USC, but are behind just Stanford.

he Bruins would be a +125 bet (at BetDSI) to win the conference. The UCLA Bruins are listed at 8.5 wins for the 2016 season. If you look at that schedule, if they can get by the tough opener at Texas A&M, they should be in good shape to go over that win total.

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2016 College Football Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans

Back for another season as a contender in not only the Big Ten, but also in the national title picture is the Michigan State Spartans. The Spartans have developed into a perennial college football title contender. The Spartans will have some changes to their roster, but they should still have a ton of talent.

The schedule, as always will be a bit of a challenge for the Spartans, but when push comes to shove, they are still favorites to repeat as the East Division Champions out of the Big Ten. Let’s take a look at the 2016 College Football Betting Preview for the Michigan State Spartans.

New Faces on Offense for Michigan State

There are a bunch of new faces on the offensive side of the football for the Michigan State Spartans. The coaching staff has garnered some great talent, to compete in the Big Ten. Tyler O’Connor gets his start at quarterback, with Damion Terry to play behind.

T.J. Scott is the starting tailback with Gerald Holmes and Madre London to back him up. R.J. Shelton and Josiah Price will be the top receiving targets for the Spartans. There will be some growing pains for the Spartans offense, but look for them in the end to put points on the board more often than not.

Defense Strong Suit for Spartans

The defense for Michigan State is going to have to carry the load in 2016. If the Spartans are going to be national title contenders, guys like Demetrius Cooper and Craig Evans will have to step up large. Returning starters, such as Malik McDowell, Joe Reschke and Riley Bullough should be able to lead the charge.

Demetrious Cox is another name the Spartans will rely on, as he is one of the most talented backfield players in the Big Ten. Michigan State can only go as far as their defense in 2016.

Spartans Schedule for 2016

The Michigan State Spartans open up the 2016 season with a little bit of a cupcake. The Spartans remain in East Lansing for a date against Furman. Following that, the Spartans will head out on the road to South Bend to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

That’s quite a rivalry game, and being on the road may prove quite the challenge. Following that, Michigan State starts Big Ten play with a home game against Wisconsin, and a road game at Indiana. The Spartans go back out of Big Ten play with a home game against Brigham Young. The final seven games of the season for Michigan State starts with a home game against Northwestern, followed by a trip to Maryland.

The rivalry game on October 29th against Michigan should be one of the best games of the week. Finally, when the Spartans wrap up the season, they are at Illinois, with Rutgers, with national title contender Ohio State, and then on the road at the Penn State Nittany Lions to wrap up the season.

Bet on Michigan State in 2016

When you are ready to make a few bets on the 2016 NCAA Football season, an interesting bet is on the Michigan State Spartans. The Spartans are 11th on the listing sheet to win the championship, with a 30/1 odds at Bookmaker. The Spartans will have to go through the Big Ten gauntlet, and then win the Big Ten title game, followed by two playoff games.

The Spartans are third in the odds to win the Big Ten as well. Ohio State and Michigan are national title contenders. The Spartans have decent odds, since they are in the opposite side as the big two powers. The Spartans are +225 (at MyBookie) to win the Big Ten title. Finally, the total win odds are out.

The Spartans come into the season with a betting line of 8 wins. The Spartans winning 8 games would be old hat for that program.

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2016 Conference USA Preview

July 4, 2016


C-USA2016 Conference USA Football Betting Preview

We Won’t Back Down

Conference USA teams never shy away from playing challenging non-conference competition and this season is no exception.

The 2016 schedule has 13 playing weeks, which provides for one open date for each team. The last two seasons were 14-week schedules, providing two bye weeks per school.

A total of 22 games are scheduled against teams that played in a bowl game last season. Conference USA will face at least one opponent from all nine of the other FBS leagues.

Letter Winners Galore

Six teams return a minimum of 50 letter wins in 2016, led by North Texas (62), Southern Miss and Western Kentucky (55), Charlotte 54, Rice (52) and FIU (50).

Only FAU (32) returns less than 40 lettermen.

We’ll Be Back Soon

UAB will return to playing football in Conference USA for the 2017 season. A total of 67 players took part in the first on-field action for the team since the program was reinstated last summer.

Bill Clark, who served as head coach during the 2014 season and guided UAB to a four-win increase in his first season, will continue to build the program as it returns to play as an FBS member for 2017.

Bowling For Dollars

For the second consecutive season, C-USA sent five teams to bowl games in 2015. They finished 3-2 in bowls, giving the league an 18-8 SU and 16-9-1 ATS mark the past four seasons in postseason play. No other FBS conference owns a higher bowl win percentage than the C-USA the last five years.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

2016 C-USA EAST PREVIEW

CHARLOTTE (Offense – *9/4, Defense – 9/3, 54 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: YOUTHFUL EXPERIENCE

Last year the FBS’ newest spring chicken, the 49ers made their debut fast-tracking from a program that launched as an FCS Independent in 2013 and landed in Conference-USA in 2015. Head coach Brad Lambert and his 10-man staff boast over 140 years of collegiate coaching experience, with Lambert (27), assistant head coach Dean Hood (29), and coordinators Jeff Mullen (25) and Matt Wallerstedt (24), each with over 20 years of know-how. Coupled with a wealth of experience and returning starters (11 returners have started at least 20 games in their 49ers career, including 5 who have made 30 or more starts), it will be hard to hush Charlotte’s sweet talent level this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: 22 players who were part of the first 49ers team in 2013 make up the 2016 senior class.

PLAY ON: at UTSA (11/26)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (Offense – 8/4, Defense – 7/3, 32 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WET DREAMS

Just when it appeared FAU was making progress, a pair of 3-win seasons under head coach Charlie Partridge was received like a wet blanket. Making matters worse, double-threat QB Jaquez Johnson, who tossed for 3,807 yards and rushed for 1,014 more over the last two years, is gone. Fortunately, Partridge hit the streets and welcomes in strong back-to-back recruiting classes. Included is SO QB Jason Driskell, brother of former Florida QB Jeff Driskell, who started two games while passing for nearly 1,000 yards last season. In addition, both of last year’s top RBs return. Coupled with a nation-leading 16 true freshmen that started a game last season, the young Owls (68 underclassmen) appear perched for success. The Owls are projected to have 32 freshmen (19 true) in 2016, 36 sophomores, 18 juniors and 17 seniors. Just two of the team’s incoming class hails from a state other than Florida.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls are 5-14 SU in one-possession games since Howard Schnellenberger resigned, including 1-4 last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Old Dominion (11/19) - *KEY

FLORIDA INTL (Offense – *9/5, Defense – 5/1, 50 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: STANDING ON OUR OWN

Strangely, the Golden Panthers will most likely be indebted to Pete Garcia, the school A.D., for scheduling 7 consecutive losing opponents to open the season. They will also likely be thankful for the services of JR QB Alex McGough, JR RB Alex Gardner and SR TE Jonnu Smith who, upon their eventual graduations, will each own school records. Then again, it could all be for naught as the defense must replace 4 top all-CUSA performers, the same stop-unit that collapsed down the stretch last year and allowed 44.25 PPG during the final four games. In what’s been a series of baby steps under Ron Turner, the training wheels are set to disengage this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: After going 2-22 ‘In The Stats’ in Ron Turner’s first two seasons, the Panthers ‘improved’ to 4-8 ITS last year.

PLAY AGAINST: at Old Dominion (11/26)

MARSHALL (Offense - *7/4, Defense – 4/2, 48 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ON AND ON IT GOES

Behind a 5th straight bowl win, Marshall became the only Group of 5 program to record a 3rd straight 10-win season last year. In fact, the only schools with more consecutive double-digit win seasons are Alabama (8), Clemson (5), and Ohio State and Florida State (4 each). And in 2015, a total of 30 defenses in the FBS faced 965 or more plays. Of those, the only team that allowed fewer yards per game than Marshall’s 360.0 was once beaten and College Football Playoff runner-up Clemson (313.0). SO QB Chase Litton, 9-2 starting the final 11 games of the season while leading all true freshmen with 23 TD passes, returns for more.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Thundering Herd are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS as home favorites with conference revenge.

PLAY ON: vs. Western Kentucky (11/26)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Offense – *6/3, Defense – 5/3, 40 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ALL IN THE FAMILY

One of only 4 teams to complete the season with a 4,000-yard passer and two 1,000-yard receivers (joining Bowling Green, Tulsa and Washington State), the Blue Raiders are opting for more in 2016. MTSU brought OC Tony Franklin (former Auburn, California and Murray State offensive coordinator) in to work with CUSA Freshman of the Year QB Brent Stockstill (coach Rick’s son), who led the nation’s freshmen quarterbacks in yards and TD passes, and added weight and strength in the offseason. The defense, though, loses 4 all-CUSA performers, including all 3 starting linebackers. Expect the Raiders to rely heavily on HC Stockstill’s 20 years of bowl game experience to get them back to the postseason this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Blue Raiders ranked 4th nationally in red zone defense.

PLAY ON: at Vanderbilt (9/10)

OLD DOMINION (Offense – *9/3, Defense – 8/3, 42 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION

After force-feeding freshmen who made a whopping 64 starts last season, Old Dominion suffered its first-ever losing season under head coach Bobby Wilder. Rest assured, they didn’t like the taste and will be hell-bent to return to their winning ways in 2016. The team is loaded with returning starters and promising youngsters. RB Ray Lawry followed up his C-USA Freshman of the Year season with another solid effort in 2015, leading the league with 1,136 yards and rushing for 11 touchdowns. Meanwhile, SO QB Shuler Bentley and SR QB/WR David Washington are back, combining for 2,587 yards and 20 TDs last season, with each taking significant snaps. ODU’s top 5 leading receivers also return for the 2016 season, along with SR LB TJ Ricks, the conference’s leading tackler.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Monarchs have sold out all 48 home games in school history and own a 35-13 SU record in those games.

PLAY ON: at Appalachian State (9/10)

WESTERN KENTUCKY (Offense – 7/5, Defense – 4/1, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BROHM SQUAD

The hire of Jeff Brohm at WKU has proved to be electrifying. Since coming aboard in 2014, only 2 teams in the nation have finished in the Top 10 in Total Offense, Scoring Offense and Passing Offense: WKU and TCU. Having to replace legendary QB Brandon Doughty in 2016 means the Hilltoppers must now scale a mountain, but they do return all 5 starting offensive linemen (with 125 games of starting experience), as well as a 1,500-yard receiver, a 900-yard receiver, a 1,000-yard rusher, and a freshman running back who was 3rd nationally among freshman with 11 rushing touchdowns last season. Look for SR QB Nelson Fishback to plug into Brohm’s system like a light bulb into a socket.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 2015 Hilltoppers were the 2nd most dominant league champion in C-USA history, winning league games by an average margin of 27.1 points.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at Louisiana Tech (10/6)

2016 C-USA WEST PREVIEW

LOUISIANA TECH (Offense – 6/4, Defense – 3/2, 44 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: SKIP FORWARD

After stumbling in his first year with Louisiana Tech, a pair of 9-win seasons has followed for Skip Holtz since, including back-to-back bowl wins for the first time in school history. The task could be more daunting in 2016, however, as the Bulldogs’ stop-unit takes a big hit, replacing 8 starters on the defensive side of the ball, with 2 assistant coaches gone as well. In addition, La Tech seniors made 166 combined starts last season, the 4th most in the nation. That’s a lot of lost experience. As a result, it appears Skippy will once again have to rely on his famous ‘dog-log’ (see below) in order to help keep this team on a forward path.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Skip Holtz is 39-19-1 ATS as a dog, including 15-4 ATS during the first 3 games of the season.

PLAY ON: as a dog at Southern Miss (11/25)

NORTH TEXAS (Offense - 5/3, Defense – 8/2, 62 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: YOUNG GUNS

Thirty-seven-year old new head coach Seth Littrell, considered one of the brightest offensive minds in college football, comes from North Carolina where he served as assistant head coach of the offense. He inherits a squad that led Conference-USA, and ranked 3rd in the nation, in fumbles recovered last season with 14 (12 different players had at least one recovery). This from a team that featured 36 no-scholarship walk-on players who dotted 37% of the roster! The bad news is UNT ranked dead last in 3rd down defensive conversion efficiency last year (.524). That, coupled with our ‘Stat You Will Like’ below tells you where Littrell’s focus should – but won’t – go this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Lean Green have gone 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS away the last 2 years, outyarded by 163 YPG.

PLAY AGAINST: at UTSA (10/29) - *Key if favored

RICE (Offense – 7/3, Defense – 9/3, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MAKE IT OR BREAK IT

After making three straight bowl appearances for the first time in school history, the Owls fell asleep on the job last year. Contributing to the falloff was a secondary that was worst in the nation in pass efficiency, directly attributed to a lack of interceptions, as Rice managed to pick off only 2 passes the entire season. Consequently, the Owls tied Wyoming with the fewest turnovers gained (10) for the year. In addition, major recruiting services report David Bailiff’s feathered fowls have incurred the 2nd largest recruiting decline over the past 5 seasons. Thus, a winning effort behind 16 returning starters this season is crucial in order to reestablish the program’s recent record-setting gains.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Owls’ 30 wins over the last 4 years matches the most in school history. The 5-year record is 36 from 1946-50.

PLAY ON: vs. UTSA (10/15)

SOUTHERN MISS (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 6/2, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BACK FROM THE ABYSS

New HC Jay Hopson, a 24-year collegiate coaching veteran (head coach at Alcorn State the past 4 seasons), and twice a former member of the Southern Miss coaching staff, returns to Hattiesburg. Hopson’s defensive units with the Golden Eagles led Conference-USA in scoring defense each of his 3 seasons as defensive coordinator. That’s good news for a team that witnessed 22 players making their Division-1 debut two years ago, then improved mightily last year while putting a 4-32 run the previous three years to bed in dramatic fashion – after compiling 18 winning seasons in a row prior to their mysterious fall. To paraphrase Arnold as The Terminator, “They’re Back!” – and Hopson figures to reap the rewards.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Golden Eagles will face only 3 opponents that owned a winning record last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (10/29)

UTEP (Offense – *8/4, Defense – 6/3, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: CH-CH-CH-CHANGES

Okay, so 3 of UTEP’s 5 wins last year – and 4 of the last 6 – have been by the grace of a field goal. And sure, they faced the 2nd softest schedule in the nation last season and will square off against the softest in 2016 (only 2 foes sport winning records from last year, including none of the last 7). Yet it’s no accident that the Miners have improved leaps and bounds over the last two football seasons, tallying 12 wins and a bowl game after recording just 2 wins in 2013. Not satisfied, Miners head coach Sean Kugler keeps digging, making several staffing changes this season with the hiring of 5 new assistants, including offensive and defensive coordinators.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Miners are 8-48-1 SU and 13-40-2 ATS in the last 57 games in which they have been outgained in the stats.

PLAY ON: at Louisiana Tech (10/1)

UTSA (Offense – *7/3, Defense – 5/2, 42 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: OUT WITH THE OLD

In a move largely designed to infuse fresh blood into a young program, the Roadrunners named Frank Wilson as their new head coach, replacing former 2-time National Coach of the Year Larry Coker. Wilson brings 20 years of collegiate coaching experience to San Antonio (the last 6 as LSU’s assistant head coach and recruiting coordinator). He helped lead 8 teams to bowl games and is widely considered as one of the nation’s top college football recruiters, engineering signing classes that ranked among the nation’s Top 10 five times. UTSA faced gaping holes last season when it lost 38 seniors, thus resulting in a dismal 3-win effort. A new blueprint begins this year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Roadrunners are 5-0 ATS in non-conference games off a non-conference win.

PLAY ON: at Colorado State (9/10) - *if off a win

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Tuesday's Top Action
July 5, 2016


PITTSBURGH PIRATES (42-41) at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (43-39)

First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Pittsburgh +143, St. Louis -158, Total: 8.5

The Pirates will be looking to win their sixth straight game when they face the Cardinals in St. Louis on Tuesday.

Pittsburgh looked to be down for the count just a few weeks ago, but the team has now rattled off five straight victories and has also come away with eight wins in its past 10 games. The Pirates are pitching extremely well over that stretch, allowing three or less earned runs in five straight games. They’ll be hoping to keep that up moving forward, as their rotation had been their issue earlier in the year.

The Cardinals have been playing well also, losing the first game of this series but winning three straight before suffering that defeat. This team has underperformed a little all season long, but will be hoping to come away with a series win over this Pittsburgh team. Both clubs are likely competing for a wild card spot, as the Cubs have really separated in the division.

Taking the mound in this game will be LHP Steven Brault (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0 K) for the Pirates and RHP Mike Leake (5-6, 4.13 ERA, 63 K) for the Cardinals. One trend worth pointing out is the fact that Pittsburgh is 26-10 against the money line in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is 2.00 or better in the past 10 games over the past two seasons. St. Louis is, however, an impressive 20-6 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the past two seasons.

Steven Brault will be making his season debut for the Pirates on Tuesday and the lefty certainly deserves his shot in the big leagues. In eight AAA starts this season, Brault has a 2.57 ERA and 44 K in 35.0 innings of work. He doesn’t necessarily work deep into games, but the Pirates would be more than happy with five or six innings of solid pitching on Tuesday.

It’s worth noting that Brault is not much of a power pitcher, and does most of his best work while pitching to contact. He’ll just need to make sure that he can induce grounders, as the Cardinals will take advantage of him if the ball is hanging too high in the zone on Tuesday.

Offensively, 3B David Freese (.292, 8 HR, 35 RBI), OF Andrew McCutchen (.236, 12 HR, 32 RBI) and OF Starling Marte (.321, 6 HR, 31 RBI) are the guys to keep an eye on in this one. All three guys have had a ton of success against Leake in their careers, combining to go 39-for-134 with four homers and 13 RBI against the Cardinals’ starter. They’ll be hoping to keep that up against him on Tuesday.

Mike Leake has been inconsistent for the Cardinals this season, but he will be hoping to build off of a very good outing against the Royals in this one. He faced Kansas City on Jun. 30 and allowed just two earned runs in seven innings of work. He struck out just four batters in the game, but he also walked just one. It’s important that he is under control on Tuesday, as it would be a disaster if he gives the Pirates too many free baserunners.

Offensively, it’d be big if OF Stephen Piscotty (.294, 10 HR, 44 RBI) could get it going for St. Louis on Tuesday. He’s been seeing the ball very well lately, getting a hit in five straight games and homering twice in the past five as well. Piscotty is St. Louis’ best weapon at the plate and the team could really use some production out of him against an inexperience pitcher like Brault.

It’s also worth keeping an eye on 3B Matt Carpenter (.305, 14 HR, 53 RBI), who has seen his average rise from .296 to .305 over the past 10 games. Carpenter has four multi-hit games in the past eight contests and it would be huge if he could get on base frequently in this one as well.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (47-35) at LOS ANGELES DODGERS (48-37)

First pitch: Tuesday, 10:10 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Baltimore +135, Los Angeles -150, Total: 7.5

The Orioles will be looking to avoid losing their sixth straight game when they take on a Dodgers team that has won five straight heading into Tuesday night’s matchup.

Baltimore has been one of the most surprising teams in baseball this season, but the club has really struggled away from home on the year. The Orioles are just 16-22 on the road and they will really need to improve that number moving forward. They can’t afford to keep up their recent level of play, as they have now lost five straight games and have allowed the Red Sox and Blue Jays to make up ground in the AL East.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, are as hot as could be right now. Los Angeles has won five straight games and seven of its past eight as well. This team also benefits from being excellent at home, going 27-15 at Dodger Stadium.

The starters in this game are going to be RHP Chris Tillman (10-2, 3.71 ERA, 91 K) for the Orioles and RHP Kenta Maeda (7-5, 2.82 ERA, 89 K) for the Dodgers. Both pitchers have been great this season, so this should be a very fun one to watch.

It is worth mentioning that the Orioles are a remarkable 9-1 against the money line in road games after three straight games where the bullpen gave up three or more runs since 1997.

Chris Tillman has not pitched well in his past two starts, allowing 10 earned runs in just 9.2 innings of work. The Orioles are going to need him to be a lot better this time out, as the Dodgers are really playing some superb baseball at the moment. Tillman’s main issue this season has been a lack of control. He has walked five batters over the past two games and that has really come back to haunt him. It also has allowed his opponents to hit more bombs off of Tillman, as he’ll throw pitches right over the plate when he grows afraid of walking a batter. If Tillman doesn’t turn in something close to a quality start then the Orioles will be in trouble on Tuesday.

Offensively, almost everybody in this lineup is a threat to do damage at the plate. SS Manny Machado (.325, 18 HR, 50 RBI), OF Mark Trumbo (.280, 24 HR, 62 RBI) and 2B Jonathan Schoop (.301, 13 HR, 47 RBI) are, however, the guys to watch in this one.

Machado has six multi-hit games over the past 10 contests and is capable of reaching base two or three times on any given night. Schoop and Trumbo, meanwhile, are two guys with some serious pop. Trumbo has two homers over the past six games for Baltimore and Schoop, like Machado, has six multi-hit games in the past 10 contests. The Orioles will be hoping that these two can drive in some runs on Tuesday.

Kenta Maeda will be starting for the Dodgers on Tuesday and he’ll be hoping to build off of his impressive June. Maeda had a 2.52 ERA in June and a lot of that had to do with his impressive 38-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’ll be hoping to continue to miss bats moving forward, as that was not something he did with much frequency earlier in the year.

It’s also worth noting that Maeda has allowed just one earned run in each of his past three starts at home this season. He also has kept his opponents homerless in seven of his past 10 starts and that would be huge if he could do it against this powerful Baltimore team in this game.

Offensively, the Dodgers will be hoping that SS Corey Seager (.305, 17 HR, 41 RBI) can stay hot in this one. Seager is on a 17-game hitting streak for Los Angeles and has now recorded two hits in four of his past five games.

It’d also be big for the Dodgers if 2B Justin Turner (.259, 11 HR, 41 RBI) could do some damage at the plate. He has recorded four multi-hit games in the past 10 contests and also has nine RBI in that span. Turner struggled early in the year, but he has come on strong lately.

[StarDust Bum]

MLB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, July 5

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs, 2:20 PM ET
Cincinnati: 7-31 SU as an underdog of +150 or more
Chicago: 32-16 SU in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6

Atlanta at Philadelphia, 7:05 PM ET
Atlanta: 2-15 SU off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival
Philadelphia: 11-4 SU after having won 4 of their last 5

Milwaukee at Washington, 7:05 PM ET
Milwaukee: 6-2 SU after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games
Washington: 33-42 SU after scoring 2 runs or less

Miami at NY Mets, 7:10 PM ET
Miami: 12-6 SU against left-handed starters
New York: 6-10 SU in home games against division opponents

Pittsburgh at St Louis, 8:15 PM ET
Pittsburgh: 17-12 SU as an underdog of +100 to +150
St Louis: 9-15 SU after having won 3 of their last 4

San Diego at Arizona, 9:40 PM ET
San Diego: 30-26 SU in night games
Arizona: 12-27 SU after 3 or more consecutive overs

Colorado at San Francisco, 10:15 PM ET
Colorado: 21-47 SU against left-handed starters
San Francisco: 24-4 SU as a favorite of -175 to -250

Kansas City at Toronto, 7:05 PM ET
Kansas City: 15-7 SU when the total is 8.5 to 10
Toronto: 8-10 SU against AL Central opponents

Detroit at Cleveland, 7:10 PM ET
Detroit: 0-15 SU as a road underdog of +175 to +250
Cleveland: 46-29 SU in games played on a grass field

LA Angels at Tampa Bay, 7:10 PM ET
Los Angeles: 49-27 SU after 3 straight games without giving up a stolen base
Tampa Bay: 7-16 SU after 2 or more consecutive unders

Texas at Boston, 7:10 PM ET
Texas: 7-1 SU after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
Boston: 3-9 SU after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games

Seattle at Houston, 8:10 PM ET
Seattle: 23-11 SU in road games after scoring 2 runs or less
Houston: 34-54 SU after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less

Oakland at Minnesota, 8:10 PM ET
Oakland: 11-23 SU after 3 straight games where they committed no errors
Minneosta: 24-14 SU after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs

NY Yankees at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 PM ET
New York: 22-39 SU when playing on Tuesday
Chicago: 22-15 SU after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base

Baltimore at LA Dodgers, 10:10 PM ET
Baltimore: 34-24 SU against right-handed starters
Los Angeles: 9-14 SU after a win by 2 runs or less

[StarDust Bum]

MLB

Tuesday, July 5


With Milwaukee's 1-0 win over the Nats on Mon. the Brewers are now 10-2 in Guerra's 12 starts & have never lost one of his road starts (6-0)