The Bum's 2016 Canadian Football League Picks-Trends-News !

[StarDust Bum]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 7
August 8, 2016

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 3-1 SU in Week 7

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 7

-- Home teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 7

-- Home/road teams posted a 2-2 ATS record in Week 7

-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 7


Team Betting Notes

-- Ottawa (4-2-1) upended Edmonton (2-4) in a rematch of the 103rd Grey Cup last November, avenging a 26-20 loss in Winnipeg. Despite the victory the RedBlacks are 0-3 ATS over the past three games after starting out 3-1 ATS in the first four contests.

-- The RedBlacks have been impressive at the betting window when it comes to totals. The 'under' is 4-1-1 over the past six games since an 'over' result in Week 1 against the Esks.

-- Saskatchewan (1-5) laid another egg, as they have followed up their July 22 win against the RedBlacks with two lopsided losses, averaging just 9.0 points per game (PPG) while allowing 38.0 PPG. They're not 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the road this season.

-- It was another loss and non-cover for Montreal (2-4), as they have now scored 18 or fewer points in four of their six games. As such the 'under' is 4-2 in their six games this season. The Alouettes have failed to cover in four of their past five games, too.

-- The BC Lions (4-2) rebounded after last weekend's disappointing loss in Calgary, humbling the Alouettes 38-18 in Montreal. The Lions improved to 5-1 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road. They are also averaging 39.7 PPG over the past three, all 'over' results, after a 3-0 'under' run.

-- Winnipeg (3-4) continued their solid play with an impressive 37-11 win over Hamilton (3-3). After starting out 1-3-1 ATS in their first five games, the Bombers have covered in back-to-back affairs for the first time since a four-game cover streak from Sept. 25-Oct. 16, 2015.

-- The 'under' has cashed in four of the past five games for the Ti-Cats. In games Hamilton has been favored, the 'under' is 4-0. When they're an underdog, the 'over' is 2-0.

[StarDust Bum]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 8
August 8, 2016


Week 7 in the CFL started things off with a big upset when Winnipeg hammered Hamilton 37-11 as a two-point home underdog. In the first of two games on Thursday night, British Columbia went on the road to Montreal and came away with a 38-18 victory as a three-point favorite.

In the backend of that double-header, Calgary cruised past Saskatchewan 35-15 as a 12 ½-point home favorite and the week’s action came to an end on Saturday when Ottawa outlasted Edmonton 23-20 but failed to cover as a 4 ½-point favorite at home.

Thursday, Aug. 11

Montreal Alouettes (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -8
Total: 52

Game Overview

Montreal’s offense returned to the form that led to an average of just 14.8 points through its first four games after exploding for 41 points in a Week 6 victory against Saskatchewan. It managed to score just eight points in the second half of last week’s loss to BC while getting shutout in the fourth quarter. The Alouettes only bright spot in that game was wide receiver Duron Carter with seven receptions for 115 yards.

The Eskimos have now matched last season’s loss total at four with last week’s third SU loss in a row. It was the first time they covered ATS in their last three games and the total has now stayed UNDER in three of their last four contests. This is behind an offense that is averaging 23.5 points during this same stretch. Mike Reilly still leads the CFL in total passing yards with 2,181, but he was held to 255 yards while completing just 61 percent of his 41 attempts against the RedBlacks.

Betting Trends

Edmonton has won the last four meetings both straight-up and against the spread with the total going OVER in three of the four games. The total in this series has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in eight of the last nine meetings.

Friday, Aug. 12

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Toronto -3 ½
Total: 49 ½

Game Overview

Just when you thought the Blue Bombers were one of the worst teams in the CFL, they turn around and shock you with a couple of unexpected wins. Much of the credit for last Wednesday’s upset has to go to the continued high level of play from quarterback Matt Nichols. He ended that game with just 246 yards passing and he tossed two touchdowns as part of a 74.2 completion percentage. This followed a 26-for-33 effort the week before against Edmonton for 304 yards and one touchdown pass.


Toronto is right in the thick of the East Division title race coming off last week’s bye. The Argonauts have won three of their last four games both straight-up and against the spread and they had shown a good balance between the pass and the run with Ricky Ray at quarterback and Brandon Whitaker running the ball. Ray will be sidelined until early September with a knee injury and in his place Logan Kilgore did an adequate job filling the void in a Week 6 win against Ottawa.

Betting Trends

Toronto has won four of its last five games against the Blue Bombers both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER in both meetings last season after going OVER in five of the previous six games between the two.

Saturday, Aug. 13

Calgary Stampeders (4-1-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5 ½
Total: 54

Game Overview

The Stampeders are probably the most balanced team in the CFL heading into Week 8 with an offense that is averaging 32 points a game complementing a defense that has allowed an average of 23.7 points to their opponents. In the first game against Saskatchewan, Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell put the ball up 37 times and he completed 25 passes for 312 yards and a score. Jerome Messam gained another 109 yards and scored a touchdown on 17 rushing attempts.

Saskatchewan remained competitive in Game 1 of this home-and-home series into the fourth quarter before giving up 16 unanswered points while getting shutout in the final 15 minutes of play. Darian Durant got the start at quarterback after missing some time with an ankle injury and he was somewhat effective with 247 yards passing and one touchdown throw. The Roughriders’ ground game only accounted for 55 total yards on 11 rushing attempts.

Betting Trends

With last week’s win in the front-end of this home-and-home series, Calgary has won the last five meetings SU while going 4-1 ATS. The total stayed UNDER 55 ½ points in that game after it had gone OVER in the previous four meetings.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) Point-spread: BC -3 Total: 55 ½

Game Overview

The Tiger-Cats have now lost three games this season closing as favorites and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their first six games overall. The 11 points scored against Winnipeg was the first time they failed to score at least 24 points over their past four contests and their defense has been torched for a total 68 points in the last two games. Hamilton trailed the Blue Bombers 34-0 at the half as a result of four sloppy turnovers. The good news is that quarterback Zach Collaros has been upgraded to probable for this week’s game, but there is no word on whether he will start.

BC comes into this interdivision tilt just a half game in back of Calgary in the West Division race. The Lions have now scored at least 38 points in each of their last three games and on the year they are putting up an average of 30.2 points a game. Last week against Montreal, Jonathon Jennings completed an amazing 84.4 percent of his 32 passing attempts for 331 yards and a score. He was able to complete at least two passes to seven different players.

Betting Trends

The Lions won the first meeting this season 28-3 on July 1 as 5 ½-point road underdogs. It was the first time the road team won in the last seven meetings and the total stayed UNDER in that game after going OVER in five of the previous six games between the two.

[StarDust Bum]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 8


Thursday, August 11

Montreal @ Edmonton

Game 301-302
August 11, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
105.343
Edmonton
109.790
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 7
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(+7); Under


Friday, August 12

Winnipeg @ Toronto

Game 303-304
August 12, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
112.742
Toronto
119.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 6 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 4
50
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-4); Under


Saturday, August 13

Calgary @ Saskatchewan

Game 305-306
August 13, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Calgary
118.760
Saskatchewan
105.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 13
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 5 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-5 1/2); Over

Hamilton @ BC Lions

Game 307-308
August 13, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hamilton
114.902
BC Lions
113.427
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 1 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
BC Lions
by 3
54
Dunkel Pick:
Hamilton
(+3); Over

[StarDust Bum]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 8

Thursday, August 11

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTREAL (2 - 4) at EDMONTON (2 - 4) - 8/11/2016, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 4-0 against the spread versus MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 4-0 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, August 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (3 - 4) at TORONTO (4 - 2) - 8/12/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, August 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CALGARY (4 - 1 - 1) at SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 5) - 8/13/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 121-89 ATS (+23.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 111-82 ATS (+20.8 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-1 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-0 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAMILTON (3 - 3) at BRITISH COLUMBIA (4 - 2) - 8/13/2016, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 4-1 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 3-2 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

CFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, August 11

9:00 PM
MONTREAL vs. EDMONTON
Montreal is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home
Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Montreal


Friday, August 12

7:30 PM
WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
Winnipeg is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home


Saturday, August 13

7:00 PM
CALGARY vs. SASKATCHEWAN
Calgary is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing on the road against Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary
Saskatchewan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Calgary

10:00 PM
HAMILTON vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Hamilton's last 7 games on the road
Hamilton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Hamilton
British Columbia is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Hamilton

[StarDust Bum]

WEST DIVISION

RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV

1 Calgary 6 4 1 1 9 192 142 3-0-0 1-1-1 4-1-0

2 BC 6 4 2 0 8 181 135 1-1-0 3-1-0 2-1-0

3 Winnipeg 7 3 4 0 6 165 169 1-3-0 2-1-0 1-3-0

4 Edmonton 6 2 4 0 4 170 187 1-3-0 1-1-0 2-1-0

5 Saskatchewan 6 1 5 0 2 128 214 1-2-0 0-3-0 0-3-0


EAST DIVISION

RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV

1 Ottawa 7 4 2 1 9 201 169 1-1-1 3-1-0 2-1-0

2 Toronto 6 4 2 0 8 148 140 1-2-0 3-0-0 2-2-0

3 Hamilton 6 3 3 0 6 148 151 0-2-0 3-1-0 2-0-0

4 Montreal 6 2 4 0 4 118 144 1-3-0 1-1-0 0-3-0


y - Clinched Division
x - Clinched Playoff Berth

[StarDust Bum]

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 8

Montreal (2-4) @ Edmonton (2-4)– Edmonton lost its last three games, all by 7 or less points; all six of their games this year were decided by 8 or less. Eskimos won last four series games, sweeping Montreal last year, 15-12/40-22. Als lost by 17-18 in last two visits here. Alouettes lost four of last five games, with all four losses by 13+ points; they split two road games, losing 30-17 (+4.5) at Toronto after winning at Winnipeg in season opener. Under is 4-2 in Montreal games, 3-1 in last four Eskimo games.

Winnipeg (3-4) @ Toronto (4-2)– Argonauts won six of last seven series games; Winnipeg lost last three visits here, by 15-17-10 points. Bombers won last two games (scoring 33.5 ppg) after their 1-4 start; under is 4-0-1 in last five Winnipeg games. Bombers won two of three on road, losing at Calgary by 14. Toronto won four of last five games (under 4-1); they’re 4-0 when scoring more than 20 points, 0-2 if they score 20 or less. Over is 8-5 in last thirteen series games.

Calgary (4-1) @ Saskatchewan (1-5)– Roughriders were outscored 76-18 in losing last two games; they lost 35-15 (+10) in Calgary LW, Stampeders had 132 rushing yards in game that was only 16-12 at the half. Calgary won last five series games, scring 31+ points in all five; they won by 7-3 in last couple of trips to Regina. Under is 8-3 in last 11 series games. Stamps scored 37.3 ppg in winning their last three games; they’re 1-1-1 on road, tying Lions in Vancouver, losing in Ottawa.

Hamilton (3-3) @ British Columbia (4-2)– Lions (+5.5) won 28-3 in Hamilton July 6, snapping home series win streak at six; Hamilton lost its last four visits here, by 3-3-7-27 points. Five of last seven in series went over total. TiCats are on road for 4th game in row, with bye mixed in there; they’re 3-1 on road, losing in Winnipeg LW- road team won six of their seven games SU. Lions are home for first time in a month; they’re 1-1 at home. BC scored 39.7 ppg in winning two of last three games.

— Montreal Alouettes @ Edmonton Eskimos (-7, 51)
— Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ Toronto Argonauts (-4, 49.5)
— Calgary Stampeders (-6, 54) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders
— Hamilton Tiger Cats @ British Columbia Lions (-2.5, 54.5)

— Underdogs 18-7 Home 7-20-1 vs spread Over: 10-16-2

[StarDust Bum]

CFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Thurs - Aug, 11

Montreal at Edmonton, 9:00 ET
Montreal: 3-10 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
Edmonton: 5-1 ATS off a road loss

Fri - Aug, 12

Winnipeg at Toronto, 7:30 ET
Winnipeg: 8-2 ATS after scoring 27 points or more in the first half last game
Toronto: 1-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins

Sat - Aug, 13

Calgary at Saskatchewan, 7:00 ET
Calgary: 17-6 ATS after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
Saskatchewan: 6-17 ATS off a division game

Hamilton at British Columbia, 10:00 ET
Hamilton: 9-2 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 52
British Columbia: 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less

[StarDust Bum]

PREVIEW

ALS, ESKS KICK OFF WEEK 8 ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

EDMONTON — The Edmonton Eskimos and Montreal Alouettes need to wrap up and stop the bleeding.

Mired in their worst skid since the tail-end of a forgettable 2013 season, the Esks return home to Commonwealth Stadium this week for a Thursday Night Football matchup with the Montreal Alouettes, a team that, like the Esks, has struggled in the first third of 2016.

Both teams are coming off Week-7 losses and find themselves languishing at or near the bottom of their respective division, and both will view Thursday as a critical opportunity to get back in the win column.

Times are tough in Montreal.

Things were looking up for Jim Popp’s Alouettes team after a Week 6 blowout win against the Saskatchewan Roughriders, but any morale gained in Montreal’s 41-3 win on July 29 was undone in a 38-18 loss to BC last week.

This week’s challenge for Montreal on the road will be shutting down league-leading quarterback Mike Reilly and the out-of-sorts Edmonton Eskimos.

“They’re an explosive offence, there’s no question about it,” Als defensive coordinator Noel Thrope told MontrealAlouettes.com. “They’ve got a very good quarterback who will stand in the pocket and deliver strikes, there’s some continuity with their offence and offensive line — they’re distributing the ball well.”

Montreal’s defence had been amongst the league’s best prior to last week’s shellacking at the hands of the Lions, and will be looking to return to form against an Eskimos team that managed just 304 yards of offence in Ottawa last week.

Defensive success is dependent on Montreal’s elite linebacker core, led by the likes of Bear Woods’ team-high 43 tackles and Chip Cox’s 31 tackles.

Billy Parker draws out of the lineup at halfback for the Als’ defence, as he’ll be replaced by 23-year-old Greg Henderson.

Outside of the Als’ 41-point explosion in Week 6, offence has been hard to come by for offensive coordinator Anthony Calvillo’s unit.

“Edmonton’s got a very stout defence, and it starts with their front seven — that really sets the tone for (their) defence,” previewed Calvillo. “That’s the challenge for us, if we can manage that (front seven), we’ll have success.”

Kevin Glenn will once again start at quarterback for Montreal after a middling 231-yard performance against BC in Week 7.

Montreal special teams coordinator Kavis Reed understands the threat Edmonton poses.

“They’re exceptionally well-coached, they’re a big team, (and) they have the best average in terms of return-yards-against,” said Reed, whose return man of choice, Stefan Logan, is averaging 12.3 per-punt-return in 2016. “They had a returner (Kenzel Doe) who did a good job against Ottawa and put them in a position to win.”

The former Eskimos head coach also understands the stakes of the Week 8 matchup.

“It’s two hungry squads that want to win, two needy squads right now.”

Things have looked dire in recent weeks on the Edmonton side of the football, but Head Coach Jason Maas believes his team is capable of pulling itself out of its own rut.

“The focus is there and the time to put up or shut up is here,” Maas told Esks.com. “I thought our guys responded well and I’m looking forward to Thursday night.”

Maas credited his team’s work ethic while candidly admitting its execution is lacking.

“Effort’s not ever a question, this group’s never going to not give you 100 per cent,” said the former Ottawa offensive coordinator. “It’s execution right now — we’re failing, that’s the bottom line.”

Edmonton’s defence will be looking to build on what was, for the most part, a solid performance in nation’s capital in Week 7.

“Montreal is a team you can never take too lightly,” said Eskimos cornerback Pat Watkins. “They have the weapons and Kevin Glenn has been to the Cup three times — he’s been in the league so long he can recognize a lot of coverages.”

Watkins and the rest of the Edmonton defence understand the unique challenge facing a veteran pivot can present.

“There’s a lot of things you have to mix up when you’re playing a veteran quarterback,” said the former Florida State Seminole. “We know we’re going to have our hands full.”

Esks wideout Derel Walker will be hoping for a more productive outing on Thursday night against the Als after being limited to just three receptions and 26 yards — both season-lows — against Ottawa last week.

Recently-signed defensive back Brandyn Thompson will not dress for the Eskimos, while national receiver Devon Bailey draws into the lineup for the first time in 2016.

By the Numbers

37 – Average points given up by the Eskimos in their first four home games.

40 – League-worst field-goal percentage for Montreal kicker Boris Bede, who will be replaced in the lineup by Anthony Fera.

99.9 – Kevin Glenn’s QB-efficiency rating.

1,350 – Combined receiving yards for Esks receivers Adarius Bowman (682) and Derel Walker (668), second- and third-most in the league respectively. Both are on pace to eclipse 2,000 receiving yards.

The Skinny

Both teams need a win on Thursday night in a big way.

Having been leapfrogged by the resurgent Bombers in the West Division standings last week, and owning an ugly 1-3 record in front of their own fans, the Esks will be feeling pressure to perform back at home.

If Montreal wants any chance of climbing back into the East Division’s playoff picture, it needs to find some offensive consistency — fast.

The Esks are favoured by all CFL.ca writers and nearly 90 per cent of the general public, and typically numbers that large don’t lie. Despite their three-game losing streak, the Esks still appear to be in a better position to win Thursday’s football game than the Als.

[StarDust Bum]

CFL BEST BETS RECORD:

ATS Picks 11-17-0 39.29% -3850

O/U Picks 14-12-2 53.85% +400


THURSDAY, AUGUST 11

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MTL at EDM 09:00 PM

MTL +6.5

U 51.5

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, August 11*

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Thursday's CFL betting preview and odds: Alouettes at Eskimos *
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mike Reilly threw for 255 yards in the loss to Ottawa but saw his streak of consecutive 300-yard passing games snapped at eight, which was one shy of matching the CFL record.

*Montreal Alouettes at Edmonton Eskimos (-7, 51.5)*

The Edmonton Eskimos look to snap a three-game losing skid when they host the Montreal Alouettes on Thursday. The Eskimos dropped a tight 23-20 decision to the Ottawa Redblacks to fall two games under .500 for the first time since 2013, and hope to turn their fortunes around by beating the Alouettes for the fifth consecutive time.

Edmonton's much-maligned defense held its second straight opponent under 24 points but it was the No. 2-ranked passing offense that failed deliver as the Eskimos failed to score an offensive touchdown in a game for the first time since Sept. 7, 2015. Montreal is languishing in the East Division cellar following a disappointing 38-18 home defeat to the BC Lions. The Alouettes, who are averaging a CFL-low 19.7 points per game, have been held to under 20 points four times in their last five contests and hope to find an offensive spark in order to notch their first win over the Eskimos since Oct. 5, 2013. "I've been on losing teams that have made a lot of changes," Montreal wide receiver Nik Lewis told reporters. "I like this team but if we want to stay together we've got to win games."
*
TV:* 9 p.m. ET, TSN, ESPN2, RDS
*
LINE HISTORY:* The Eskimos opened as 7.5-point favorites but the line was quickly dropped to the key number of -7 on Monday evening. The total opened at 51.5 and hasn't moved as of the publication time of this preview. Check out the complete line history here.
*
ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 2-4 O/U):* Boris Bede missed his ninth field goal of the season in the loss to BC, forcing the Alouettes' top brass to bring in three kickers to audition for the job. "Odds are we'll make some kind of a change," Montreal head coach Jim Popp told reporters. "We'll try something different at this stage with him and try to help him overcome his problems." Duron Carter continues to burn opposing defensive backs as he caught seven passes for 115 yards against the Lions and has 21 receptions for 354 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games.
*
ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS, 3-3 O/U):* Mike Reilly threw for 255 yards in the loss to Ottawa but saw his streak of consecutive 300-yard passing games snapped at eight, which was one shy of matching the CFL record. Reilly leads the CFL in passing yards (2,181) and is second in touchdowns (11), but failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in 12 games. Edmonton added some depth to its linebacker corps as it acquired Alex Ogbongbemiga via a trade with the Saskatchewan Roughriders on Monday.
*
TRENDS:*

* Alouettes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
* Eskimos are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 13-4 in Alouettes last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Over is 5-1 in Eskimos last 6 games following a ATS win.
* Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Edmonton.
*
CONSENSUS:* Early consensus action is on the side of the road underdog Alouettes at a rate of 58 percent. The early wagers on the total are on the Over at 58 percent.
*
EXTRA POINTS:*

* Edmonton has scored 33 or more points in three of the last four meetings with Montreal.
* Eskimos WR Adarius Bowman leads the CFL with 47 receptions.
* Bede has made 7-of-16 field goals after going 36-for-40 in 2015.

[StarDust Bum]

RECAP

REILLY, ESKS OUTLAST ALOUETTES TO WIN DEFENSIVE DUEL

EDMONTON — It was far more difficult than it needed to be, but the Edmonton Eskimos got the job done on Thursday night to earn a 23-12 victory over the Montreal Alouettes at Commonwealth Stadium.

Mike Reilly scored the game’s only offensive touchdown on a quarterback sneak while the Green and Gold dominated time of possession, helping the Eskimos pick up their second home win of 2016 to end a three-game losing streak.



Meanwhile, two late interceptions, including one for a touchdown by linebacker Deon Lacey, validated a hard-fought effort for the defending Grey Cup Champions with two much-needed points in the standings.

The Alouettes failed to find the end zone, scoring their 12 points on a 4-of-5 effort from newcomer Anthony Fera on field goals. Fera replaced Boris Bede.

The Eskimos stringed together their 23 points on two field goals, two safeties, a quarterback sneak on third down and an interception returned for a touchdown — and did so despite losing three fumbles throughout the contest.

Reilly finished with 300 yards on 29-of-45 passing while Derel Walker had a game-high 132 receiving yards on 10 catches. Adarius Bowman added 107 yards on nine catches as the league’s top receiving duo once again proved unstoppable.

B.J. Cunningham led the Alouettes with 98 yards on five catches, while Kevin Glenn struggled, throwing for 271 yards on 22 of 39 passing (56.4 per cent) and two late fourth quarter interceptions.

Duron Carter was held to just three catches for 28 yards despite a team-high 10 targets, ending a run of three consecutive games with at least 100 receiving yards.

In a battle of two teams desperate for a victory, the Eskimo offence moved fast and furious out of the gate, but Walker’s third catch on the opening drive ended on a turnover at the goal line when he had the ball knocked loose and deflected out of bounds by Alouettes linebacker Chip Cox.

A quick two-and-out forced the Alouettes to concede a safety, however, while the Esks’ offence didn’t take long to kick it back into high gear.

A 16-yard pass interference penalty against first-time starter Greg Henderson followed by an 18-yard run by John White set the Eskimos up with a first and goal from the 10. Then, after a second-down catch by Bowman moved the offence to the one, Reilly secured a bobbled snap and leveraged his way under the pile for the game’s opening touchdown.

Sean Whyte missed the extra point but that did little to curve the Eskimos’ first-quarter dominance. The Esks controlled the ball for more than 12 of the opening 15 minutes, while a late 34-yard catch over the middle by Bowman set up a Whyte field goal to make it 11-0.

After his offence ran only five plays in the first quarter, Cunningham’s 42-yard catch set up Fera’s first field goal as an Alouette, cutting the deficit to 11-3.

The defences settled in after that and Fera’s second kick through the uprights made it 11-6. Fera was given a chance to further cut into the deficit on the last play of the half, but his third attempt of the game went wide.

Nonetheless, a 2-for-3 effort for the newcomer and a strong performance by the Als’ defence kept Montreal down five, a manageable deficit heading into the half.

Both offences struggled to find a rhythm in the third, while the Alouettes further closed the gap with Fera’s third field goal of the contest.

The Eskimos had a chance to add some breathing room, driving down the field with the help of Bowman and again closing in on the goal line. But for the second time in the game, a fumble, this time by the running back White, ended up in the hands of the Alouettes at the one.

Glenn took two shots downfield to Carter who had a chance on both, but back to back incompletions forced the Alouettes to concede their second safety of the night, restoring the Eskimos’ lead to four points – 13-9.

Fera’s fourth field goal of the night on five tries made it a 13-12 Edmonton lead early in the fourth as the Als continued to hang around despite being nearly doubled in time of possession.

With just under four minutes left on the clock and the Esks up by a point, Reilly’s second-down pass to Bowman – while also putting the veteran receiver over 100 yards on the evening — set up a 31-yard catch-and-run by Walker down to the Montreal 20.

The result was Whyte’s second field goal of the night, extending the Eskimos’ lead to 16-12 just inside the 3:00 warning.

Down four and still looking for touchdown No. 1, the Alouettes weren’t about to give up. Glenn connected twice with Cunningham, while on the second reception Lacey was hit with a 15-yard unnecessary roughness penalty for the Esks.

Brandon Rutley kept the drive moving with a second-down conversion, which Carter followed up with some shiftiness and dodged tackles down to the Edmonton 30.

It looked like the Eskimos had put the game away instantly when J.C. Sherritt picked off Glenn’s pass and had nothing but open field ahead of him — but he was tracked down and lost a hold of the football, only to have it knocked out of bounds by the Alouettes.

With new life, however, Glenn repeated his mistake. The veteran pivot was looking for Carter over the middle on a crossing pattern, only to be intercepted by Lacey. Lacey made no mistake on the Esks’ second interception of the game against Glenn, sealing the deal with the defensive touchdown.

While the game was lost on two late Glenn interceptions, the Als never bounced back from a one-sided first quarter. They ran only five plays in the first quarter on offence compared to the Eskimos’ 25, distributed among possessions of eight, nine and eight plays consecutively throughout the opening 15 minutes.

On top of the Alouettes’ passing game struggles, meanwhile, they couldn’t get much going on the ground either. Rutley struggled to a 3.6-yard rushing average on 12 rushes for 43 yards, although he added 55 yards on six catches.

At the end of the day, the Alouettes mustered only 23:24 with the ball in their possession, compared to 36:36 for Edmonton.

The loss drops Montreal to 2-5 on the season. The Als will look to bounce back in Week 9 with a road matchup with Ottawa, but could be without receiver Carter, whose pending one-game suspension will either be upheld or reversed this week.

Edmonton, on the other hand, moves into a third-place tie with Winnipeg in the West and will look to keep it rolling with a road date against the Toronto Argonauts on Aug. 20.

[StarDust Bum]

CFL
Short Sheet

Week 8

Fri - Aug, 12

Winnipeg at Toronto, 7:30 ET
Winnipeg: 8-2 ATS after scoring 27 points or more in the first half last game
Toronto: 1-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, Aug. 12

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Toronto -3 ½
Total: 49 ½

Game Overview

Just when you thought the Blue Bombers were one of the worst teams in the CFL, they turn around and shock you with a couple of unexpected wins. Much of the credit for last Wednesday’s upset has to go to the continued high level of play from quarterback Matt Nichols. He ended that game with just 246 yards passing and he tossed two touchdowns as part of a 74.2 completion percentage. This followed a 26-for-33 effort the week before against Edmonton for 304 yards and one touchdown pass.

Toronto is right in the thick of the East Division title race coming off last week’s bye. The Argonauts have won three of their last four games both straight-up and against the spread and they had shown a good balance between the pass and the run with Ricky Ray at quarterback and Brandon Whitaker running the ball. Ray will be sidelined until early September with a knee injury and in his place Logan Kilgore did an adequate job filling the void in a Week 6 win against Ottawa.

Betting Trends

Toronto has won four of its last five games against the Blue Bombers both SU and ATS. The total stayed UNDER in both meetings last season after going OVER in five of the previous six games between the two.

----------------------

Friday, August 12

Winnipeg @ Toronto

Game 303-304
August 12, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
112.742
Toronto
119.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 6 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 4
50
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-4); Under

-------------------

Friday, August 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (3 - 4) at TORONTO (4 - 2) - 8/12/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Friday, August 12

7:30 PM
WINNIPEG vs. TORONTO
Winnipeg is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Winnipeg is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home

--------------------------

Winnipeg (3-4) @ Toronto (4-2)– Argonauts won six of last seven series games; Winnipeg lost last three visits here, by 15-17-10 points. Bombers won last two games (scoring 33.5 ppg) after their 1-4 start; under is 4-0-1 in last five Winnipeg games. Bombers won two of three on road, losing at Calgary by 14. Toronto won four of last five games (under 4-1); they’re 4-0 when scoring more than 20 points, 0-2 if they score 20 or less. Over is 8-5 in last thirteen series games.

------------------

Fri - Aug, 12

Winnipeg at Toronto, 7:30 ET
Winnipeg: 8-2 ATS after scoring 27 points or more in the first half last game
Toronto: 1-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins

[StarDust Bum]

CFL

Friday, August 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday's CFL betting preview and odds: Blue Bombers at Argonauts
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Logan Kilgore completed 25-of-42 passes for 322 yards and a touchdown in his first CFL start - a 23-20 win against Ottawa in Week 6.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Toronto Argonauts (-4, 50.0)

The Toronto Argonauts can take sole possession of first place in the East Division when they host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Friday. The Argonauts made a big statement by beating the Ottawa Redblacks 23-20 in Logan Kilgore's first CFL start on July 31, and they hope their young quarterback can lead them to their third straight victory and improve to 3-0 against West Division opponents in the process.

Toronto, which is coming off a bye, has given up 20 points or fewer in four of its last five games and looks to put the clamps on a Winnipeg offence that has come to life since backup Matt Nichols was inserted into the starting lineup.The Blue Bombers have won back-to-back games for the first time in over two years following an impressive 37-11 victory over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in Week 7. Winnipeg's offence has thrived with Nichols under centre, averaging 33.5 points in two games without a turnover, and he hopes to lead the Blue Bombers to their first three-game winning streak since 2014. "There's a good feeling but I also believe that the players are keeping it in perspective," Winnipeg head coach Mike O'Shea told reporters. "They're excited about the outcomes of the last two games but realize there is more work to be done."

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TSN, ESPN3

LINE HISTORY: The Argos opened as 4-point home favorites and the line has been steady since it's release early in the week. The total hit the board at 49.5 and has risen slightly to 50. Check out the complete line history here.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS, 1-5-1 O/U): Nichols looked sharp from the get-go even though kickoff was delayed over 2 1/2 hours due to a lightning storm, as he went 23-of-31 for 246 yards and two touchdowns in the win against Hamilton. Offensive tackle Jermarcus Hardrick suffered an upper-body injury against the Tiger-Cats and will likely be replaced by Manase Foketi, who bounced around the NFL with the New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills in 2014. Wide receivers Weston Dressler (knee), Darvin Adams (arm) and Ryan Smith (lower body) missed practice and are questionable for Friday's game.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U): Kilgore completed 25-of-42 passes for 322 yards and a touchdown while A.J. Jefferson recorded two interceptions, including a pick late in the fourth quarter to seal the win against Ottawa. "It feels great to have a full team behind you," Kilgore told reporters. "You know you just have to do your job and you don't have to be superman to win ball games." Toronto added quarterback Dan LeFevour, who played last season with the Montreal Alouettes, to the practice roster on Tuesday to add more depth to the position as Ricky Ray continues to rehab his knee.

TRENDS:

* Blue Bombers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.
* Argonauts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
* Under is 4-0 in Blue Bombers last 4 games in August.
* Over is 7-0 in Argonauts last 7 games following a bye week.
* Blue Bombers are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: Early consensus action is on the side of the home favorite Argos at a rate of 60 percent. The early wagers on the total are on the Under at 54 percent.

EXTRA POINTS:

* Toronto has won six of the last seven meetings with Winnipeg.
* Blue Bombers RB Andrew Harris is second in the CFL with 382 rushing yards.
* Argonauts WR Kenny Shaw has caught 15 passes for 193 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games.