The Bum's 2016 Canadian Football League Picks-Trends-News !

[StarDust Bum]

7/23- Saturday's Totals: 1 - 1

June July Totals

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 7-12-0 36.84% -3100

O/U Picks 10-7-2 58.82% +1150

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MONDAY, JULY 25

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MTL at TOR 07:30 PM

TOR -4.5

U 46.0

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CFL Betting Recap - Week 5
July 26, 2016


League Betting Notes

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 5

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 5

-- Road teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 4

-- Road teams posted a 3-0-1 ATS record in Week 4

-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 4


Team Betting Notes

-- Ottawa (3-1-1) suffered its first loss of the season. That part isn't so shocking, as they were due to lose eventually. However, it was WHO they lost to. Saskatchewan (1-3) finally earned a win in its fourth try, edging the RedBlacks 30-29 at home. It was the third consecutive 'over' result for the Roughriders.

-- The RedBlacks are now just 1-1-1 SU against the West Division, and they're 0-2 ATS in their past two against the other division. The 'over' result was their first since Week 1, snapping a 2-0-1 'under' streak.

-- Edmonton (2-2) was tripped up 37-31 at home against Hamilton (3-2), as the Eskimos defense let them down again. So far the Esks have allowed 36 or more points in three of their first four games. As such, it's no surprise the 'over' is 3-1 through Edmonton's four games.

-- The Tigers-Cats haven't been able to figure it out at home, but they certainly have been comfortable on the road. The Ti-Cats are 0-2 SU/ATS at home, and 3-0 SU/ATS on the road this season. Remember that Aug. 3 at Winnipeg, and Aug. 13 at B.C. Lions, in their next two outings.

-- The Blue Bombers have been terrible, going 1-4 SU/ATS through five outings. They're especially poor at home, as the Bombers are 0-3 SU/ATS while averaging just 16.0 points per game and allowing 25.0 points per contest in Winnipeg.

-- Toronto (3-2) dumped Montreal (1-3), as the Alouettes haven't won since June 24 in Winnipeg. The Alouettes have had a power outage on offense, averaging just 12.3 points per game over the past three, all non-covers. The 'under' is also 3-1 this season for Montreal.

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
July 26, 2016


The early race for a title in each CFL division tightened up with last week’s results. Calgary improved its position in the West standings with last Thursday’s 33-18 victory against Winnipeg as a five-point road favorite. On Friday night, Saskatchewan stunned Ottawa 30-29 as a 6 ½-point underdog at home to post its first win of the year.

This past Saturday’s action in the CFL featured a big interdivision showdown between Hamilton and Edmonton with the Tiger-Cats prevailing as four-point road underdogs in a 37-31 upset. Week 5 closed things out on Monday night with Toronto knocking off Montreal 30-17 as a 4 ½-point favorite at home. Here is a look at Week 6 in the CFL.


Thursday, July 28

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (2-2 SU, 0-3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -9 ½
Total: 54 ½

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers have dug themselves an early hole and now there are some question marks at the quarterback position after Matt Nichols replaced Drew Willy late in the game last week against Calgary. Nichols was able to find Weston Dressler with a scoring strike to close the deficit to within eight points, but Winnipeg’s defense allowed the Stampeders to expand their lead to 15 points by the closing gun.

Edmonton has already lost half as many games as it did all last season in its run to a Grey Cup title. You cannot place all that much blame on the Eskimos’ offense for last week’s loss after building a 31-20 lead over Hamilton heading into the fourth quarter. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly ended that game with 354 yards passing and three touchdown throws while completing an impressive 76.2 percent of his 42 passing attempts.

Betting Trends

The Blue Bombers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against the Eskimos and they have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against Edmonton. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five meetings.


Friday, July 29

Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

The Roughriders posted their first straight-up victory of the year in dramatic fashion on game-winning 53-yard field goal with just over a minute to play. The biggest storyline in last week’s upset was the play of Mitchell Gale in his first CFL start at quarterback for an injured Darian Durant. Gale threw for 354 yards and a score including eight completions to Naaman Roosevelt for 182 yards. Darian remains questionable to return to action this Friday night.

Montreal gave up 21 points in the second quarter of Monday night’s rout to help seal its third loss in four games. The Alouettes have been outscored 103-59 in those first four contests and the prospect for any kind of quick turnaround does not look good. Kevin Glenn was back under center for Montreal and despite the fact that he completed 24-of-28 attempts for 285 yards, he still could not get his team in the end zone more than once through the air.

Betting Trends

The Alouettes have covered ATS in six of the last eight meetings in this interdivision clash and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 16 of the last 21 meetings in Montreal.


British Columbia Lions (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (2-1-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5
Total: 49

Game Overview

The Lions have carved out the early lead in the West Division behind an offense that is averaging over 400 total yards a game with a solid balance between the pass and the run. They have also been stingy on the other side of the ball behind a defense that has only allowed an average of 18.3 points a game. They are coming off a bye week following a 40-27 victory against Saskatchewan in Week 4 as 1 ½-point underdogs on the road.

Calgary has now covered the spread in its last three games with the total going OVER in all three contests. Bo Levi Mitchell continued to light things up through the air with 310 yards passing and three touchdown throws in last week’s win against Winnipeg. He completed 70.7 percent of his 41 attempts while connecting with seven different receivers. Jerome Messam paced the Stampeders’ ground game with 65 yards on 13 carries.

Betting Trends

Head-to-head in this West Division rivalry, the Lions won the first meeting this season 20-18 as 2 ½-point home underdogs, but they have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against the Stampeders. The total has gone OVER the closing line in five of the last seven meetings in Calgary.


Sunday, July 31

Toronto Argonauts (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (3-1-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

Toronto has now won three of its last four games both SU and against the spread including wins on the road against Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Credit Ricky Ray for Monday night’s win after throwing for three touchdowns. Ray left the game in the fourth quarter with a leg injury and right now it looks like Logan Kilgore might get the start on Sunday after coming into this past Monday’s game as his replacement.

The RedBlacks will look to quickly bounce back from their first SU loss of the season, but they may have to do it without the services of their starting quarterback Trevor Harris. He left last week’s game early in the first quarter with a leg injury and his status for Sunday remains up in the air. Harris has been one of the CFL’s top passers this season in both yards (1,499) and touchdowns (9). If he cannot go, we may see the return of Henry Burris at quarterback after missing the first five games with a hand injury.

Betting Trends

Ottawa drew first blood in this season’s series with a 30-20 victory on July 13 as a one-point road favorite. Toronto still has a SU 4-2 edge against the RedBlacks over the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last four games.

[StarDust Bum]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 6


Thursday, July 28

Winnipeg @ Edmonton

Game 301-302
July 28, 2016 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
106.694
Edmonton
119.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 12 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 9 1/2
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(-9 1/2); Under


Friday, July 29

Saskatchewan @ Montreal

Game 303-304
July 29, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Saskatchewan
107.905
Montreal
106.355
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 1 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
by 1
50
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(+1); Under

BC Lions @ Calgary

Game 305-306
July 29, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
BC Lions
113.941
Calgary
121.017
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 7
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 5
49
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-5); Over


Sunday, July 31

Toronto @ Ottawa

Game 307-308
July 31, 2016 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
114.943
Ottawa
120.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 5 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ottawa
by 8
49
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(+8); Over

[StarDust Bum]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 6

Thursday, July 28

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WINNIPEG (1 - 4) at EDMONTON (2 - 2) - 7/28/2016, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 3-1 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-0 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, July 29

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SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 3) at MONTREAL (1 - 3) - 7/29/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 121-87 ATS (+25.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in July games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 2-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 1) at CALGARY (2 - 1 - 1) - 7/29/2016, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 54-28 ATS (+23.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 89-61 ATS (+21.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, July 31

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TORONTO (3 - 2) at OTTAWA (3 - 1 - 1) - 7/31/2016, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing on a Sunday over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
OTTAWA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OTTAWA is 4-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
OTTAWA is 3-3 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

CFL

Week 6

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Trend Report
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Thursday, July 28

9:00 PM
WINNIPEG vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Winnipeg is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
Edmonton is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg


Friday, July 29

7:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. MONTREAL
Saskatchewan is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Montreal's last 16 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

10:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing Calgary
British Columbia is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games
Calgary is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 12 games at home


Sunday, July 31

7:30 PM
TORONTO vs. OTTAWA
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Ottawa
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Ottawa8-2-1 SU in its last 11 games

[StarDust Bum]

CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, July 28


Winnipeg (1-4) @ Edmonton (2-2)– Bombers (+3.5) lost 20-16 at home to Edmonton two weeks ago, giving up winning TD in last 1:00 in game where Eskimos outgained them 517-347. Winnipeg scored only 3 points in second half. Edmonton won last seven series games, winning last seven here, last four by combined score of 140-29. Eskimos are 2-2 after blowing 24-6 halftime lead in horrific home loss to Hamilton last week- two of their four games went to OT. Under is 3-1-1 in Winnipeg games this year; three of four Edmonton games went over.

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NICHOLS FACES FORMER TEAM AS BOMBERS, ESKS CLASH ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

EDMONTON — Thursday night’s matchup at Commonwealth Stadium is a veritable do-or-die for both parties involved. The hometown Eskimos are coming off one of the biggest collapses in recent CFL history in Week 5, while the visiting Winnipeg Blue Bombers are turning to backup QB Matt Nichols to right a waterlogged ship.

The Esks are a .500 football club at the moment, having struggled both at home (1-2 record) and defensively (134 points allowed, 7th), and will be reeling from last week’s 31-point collapse at home against Hamilton.

Winnipeg head coach Mike O’Shea has opted for backup Matt Nichols after another disappointing home loss, a 30-18 defeat that was never really close, against the Stampeders.

Some would say Jeremiah Masoli found his groove, others would say the Eskimos (2-2) defence fell asleep at the wheel. Maybe it was a combination of both.

Whatever the reason, the visiting Ticats put up 31 unanswered points in the second half last week, largely on the strength of 391 passing yards and Masoli’s consecutive completions record. Edmonton’s pass rush was once again ineffective — the Esks defence has come up with a league-low five sacks — and that allowed Masoli the time to finally get the Tabbies offence rolling.

The good news for the Esks is that, last time around against Winnipeg, they were able to largely neutralize the Bombers offence in a 20-16 Week 3 win. Though Matt Nichols will start in place of Drew Willy for Winnipeg, Edmonton’s defensive approach will remain the same.

“It won’t make a difference,” Eskimos defensive end Marcus Howard told Esks.com. “We just have to go out there as a defence, compete and just finish. We’re leaving a lot of plays out there. It comes down to the players executing.”

Despite his team’s roller coaster start, Edmonton head coach Jason Maas remains optimistic about his team’s potential.

“We’re four games in with a lot of young players,” said Maas. “We still have that championship makeup, we just need to (play) for 60 minutes and we’ll get better outcomes.”

Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly has done Mike Reilly-type things early in 2016, throwing for 1,580 passing yards and 10 touchdowns through five weeks — both league-high figures.

Reilly’s top two targets have been longtime go-to receiver Adarius Bowman, who’s hauled in 543 receiving yards and four touchdown receptions, and CFL sophomore Derel Walker, a Texas A&M product who has already racked up 494 receiving yards.

“I’ve been on Winnipeg’s side before, I’ve been there where you’ve got to get it done,” said Bowman. “From the offensive standpoint as a team, we have a lot to prove. I’m sorry they’re having those problems over there, but we’ve got to fix ours (and) we’re ready.”

“You got to show up every week. This is the CFL, at no point is one team (better) than another,” continued Bowman. “We can just control what we do, and as long as we do that, I think the odds are in our favour.”

Reilly echoed his receiver’s sentiment.

“We can get back on the field and make amends,” said Reilly. “We win together, we lose together. We do things right as a team, we do things wrong as a team.”

The Edmonton gunslinger, who will go up against a young Winnipeg secondary affected by injuries, emphasized his team’s cohesion and unity.

“Good for us it’s a short week,” said Reilly. “We’ve been trying to correct our mistakes the first four games and this game will be no different; the one thing I do know is guys we have in the locker room understand football is a team game.”

Rookie Esks linebacker Kenny Ladler will be looking to build on a positive start to his rookie season.

On the flip side of Thursday’s matchup, the sense that Winnipeg’s season is entering desperation time is palpable.

The Bombers (1-4) have struggled on offence, having given up the league’s most sacks (16) and turned the ball over more times (12) than anybody else.

Following another loss to Calgary last week, head coach Mike O’Shea has chosen to hand the Week 5 start to backup QB Matt Nichols.

“He’s a veteran presence, he has more command over a huddle or situation than any rookie would,” O’Shea told BlueBombers.com. “It’s a three-phase sport, football. It’s a game where everybody’s contributing; we need the defence to get off the field quicker, not give up that many yards so that our special teams unit can provide better returns and give our offence better position.”

Nichols’s familiarity with the Eskimos, a team he spent two and a half seasons with, could play to his advantage on Thursday. The Eastern Washington alum has thrown for over 5,000 yards and 31 touchdowns in his CFL career, and will have the chance to best his old team in his first start of the 2016 season on Thursday.

The mood within Bombers ranks is one of anticipation entering Thursday’s highly-anticipated rematch with Edmonton.

“Anger and frustration is an emotional response, and you look at ways to make your game better,” said Winnipeg defensive lineman Jamaal Westerman. “I don’t know if it’s an emotional anger, (but) right now we’re 100 per cent locked and loaded on this game.”

The losses have piled up for the Bombers, and Westerman believes consistency is their key to stopping the trend.

“We have to continue to stop the big play and make the tackles when they’re needed,” said the Rutgers alum. “We’re at times flying around, making plays in the backfield. Other times, we’re missing tackles: We have to be more consistent. In football, if you’re able to be consistent throughout the game, you’ll typically come out on top.”

Winnipeg’s run game will be a point of intrigue on Thursday Night Football; national running back Andrew Harris has had trouble finding room to run, even in a down year for rushing throughout the league.

However, Harris’s contributions in the air (30 receptions) have balanced out his rough start on the ground (3.9 yards-per-carry).

Bombers rookie defensive back Kevin Fogg has made a strong first impression around the league. His 28 tackles lead all defensive rookies and are good for fourth overall in the CFL.

By the Numbers

0 – Rushing touchdowns for highly-touted Winnipeg RB Andrew Harris.

9.6 – Yards-per-completion for Esks QB Mike Reilly, second-best amongst CFL starting QBs.

37 – League-leading number of tackles for Winnipeg LB Ian Wild.

65 – Combined receptions for Edmonton’s Bowman-Walker duo.

The Skinny

Winnipeg has turned to its backup quarterback after a slow start to the season offensively. As Jason Maas said, Edmonton still has championship talent but hasn’t consistently shown it through its first four games.

Both teams have something to prove, and the first five weeks of the season would hint at a high-scoring slugfest at Commonwealth on Thursday night.

The difference between the two teams is Edmonton, while inconsistent in the win column, has been consistent offensively, averaging 31.5 points-per-game. Winnipeg’s offence has only broken the 20-point mark twice in five games.

Then again, there’s the Matt Nichols redemption factor to keep in mind.

Then again (again), there’s also the fact that Winnipeg’s offensive line has allowed the most sacks in the league.

Something’s got to give.

Kickoff is slated for 9 p.m. ET and can be seen live on TSN.

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LANDRY: 5 TAKEAWAYS FROM WEEK 5

DON LANDRY

Hey there, referee Kim Murphy. At one point on Saturday night, I heard you say the words “that penalty is refused.” Come on, now. We don’t “refuse” penalties in Canada. Too harsh. We “decline” them. Politely.

Very politely.

Here are the takeaways:

1. THE ARGOS CAN CATCH PASSES BUT NOT A BREAK.AWAYS FROM WEEK 5

They haven’t had their entire first string receiving crew together at all this season. Diontae Spencer hasn’t played a down. Kevin Elliott was injured in the opener and hasn’t been back since. Tori Gurley has missed the last two games.

Always, someone has been out and someone else has shown the ability to step in. Wallace Miles, Phil Bates and now Devon Wylie have all filled the void quite capably. Kenny Shaw, who answered the bell to take Spencer’s spot at the beginning of the season, has emerged as a bona fide breakout star, punctuating his CFL arrival with a spectacular catch and crash during Monday night’s win over Montreal.

Quarterback Ricky Ray was showing that he was starting to find the groove and Argo fans must have been licking their chops over the prospect of getting the likes of Elliott, Gurley and Spencer back in the line up. Now, Ray goes down.

Total: Zero breaks caught. As for Ray’s back-up, Logan Kilgore, Argos’ GM Jim Barker told me a couple of weeks ago: “We feel like Logan is ready now. That, if he is called upon, he can go in and he’ll perform at a high level.”

We’re about to find out if that is true.

2. NEVER TAKE YOUR FOOT OFF THE GAS.

The Edmonton Eskimos did precisely that on Saturday night. Moreover, they pulled their car into a convenience store parking lot and left the engine running because they were “just hopping in for a bag of chips and a pop.” But then, they got distracted by the magazine rack and ended up browsing for 20 minutes.

More than enough time for the Ticats to wander by and go “oh, hey. Free car!” What in the name of Hugh Campbell happened there? It’s not like the Eskies were seen crowd surfing Flo Rida’s mosh pit at the break.

Could it be that the Ticats used halftime to pore over crucial Eskimo blueprints smuggled into them by a droid? I saw two very different headlines following this game: 1) Ticats Wipe Out 25 Point Deficit. 2) Eskimos Squander 25 Point Lead. The headline you favour likely depends on whether you prefer green with your gold or black but I do know this:

For something like that to happen, it takes two to tango.

3. ANDY FANTUZ CAN KICK EQUALLY WELL WITH EITHER LEG.

After touchdown number one against the Eskimos, he drilled one into the stands with his left leg. Touchdown number two, he did the same with his right. Notable exclamations on what were two superb major score receptions.

On the first, he made a nice adjustment from looking over his outside shoulder, recalibrating, and then looking over his left to haul in a Jeremiah Masoli pass that was a little off target. On number two, Masoli was right on the money in a small window and Fantuz brought it in over his right shoulder in very tight coverage.

In case you haven’t noticed, Andy Fantuz is a top ten receiver in both yards and receptions in 2016. His 2015 numbers were underwhelming but then again, he missed half the season with an elbow injury.

So, yes, while one takeaway on Fantuz is that he is ambipedal – I looked it up; it’s the foot version of ambidextrous – the larger takeaway is that anyone who counted him out needs to reconsider that position.

4. CHRIS JONES IS TRUE TO HIS WORD.

Remember Saskatchewan’s Week 3 loss to the Edmonton Eskimos? That’s the game where the ‘Riders roared back to take a 36-33 lead with seconds remaining, before losing in overtime.

That overtime happened because Jones had his defence play passively in the last few seconds, allowing the Eskimos to easily move the ball into field goal range for the tie. “If I had a do-over, I would probably be a little bit more aggressive…” Jones said afterward. Well, how about a lot more aggressive.

After Tyler Crapigna kicked the ‘Riders into a 30-29 lead against Ottawa, there was still 1:03 left on the clock. On Ottawa’s first down, Jones dialed up a 6-man rush and a sack. On second down Jones had a much more aggressive version of short-pattern pass coverage, forcing a deep ball that was incomplete. On third and fourteen, he let a three man rush do the job and Ottawa QB Brock Jensen ran out of steamboats.

5. EVERYONE IN SASKATCHEWAN HAS GAME FACE.

Always. Right from the get go.

Look at this kid. That is some sunglass-wearing, intensity-showing, locked-in kinda game attitude there. How old is that kid? Barely six months? He or she already has a Chris Jones kind of down-to-business thing going there.

Put that kid in a fully buttoned up black golf shirt and put a mic on those ear covers and you’ve got an extraordinary mini-Jones there. Has that kid uttered its first words yet? Because I’ll bet my bottom dollar those words will be “bring ’em out.” Or “George Reed, GOAT.”

And Finally… Don’t think I forgot about you, Chad Owens. That catch was stoopid. Nope, not enough O’s. It was stooooopid.

[StarDust Bum]

WEST DIVISION

RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV

1 BC 4 3 1 0 6 102 73 1-1-0 2-0-0 2-0-0

2 Calgary 4 2 1 1 5 113 86 1-0-0 1-1-1 2-1-0

3 Edmonton 4 2 2 0 4 127 134 1-2-0 1-0-0 2-0-0

4 Saskatchewan 4 1 3 0 2 110 138 1-2-0 0-1-0 0-2-0

5 Winnipeg 5 1 4 0 2 98 135 0-3-0 1-1-0 0-3-0



EAST DIVISION

RK TEAM GP W L T PTS F A HOME AWAY DIV

1 Ottawa 5 3 1 1 7 158 126 0-0-1 3-1-0 2-0-0

2 Hamilton 5 3 2 0 6 137 114 0-2-0 3-0-0 2-0-0

3 Toronto 5 3 2 0 6 125 120 1-2-0 2-0-0 1-2-0

4 Montreal 4 1 3 0 2 59 103 0-2-0 1-1-0 0-3-0

[StarDust Bum]

7/23- Saturday's Totals: 1 - 1

June July Totals

WLT PCT UNITS

ATS Picks 8-12-0 40.00% -2600

O/U Picks 10-8-2 55.56% +600


THURSDAY, JULY 28

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

WPG at EDM 09:00 PM

EDM -9.5

U 55.5

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RECAP

NICHOLS LEADS BOMBERS TO BIG WIN IN EDMONTON

EDMONTON – Matt Nichols had Eskimos fans seeing green on Thursday evening, outdueling former teammate Mike Reilly en route to Winnipeg’s second victory of the 2016 season. The former Eskimo completed over 78 per cent of his passes for over 300 yards and a score in his first start of the year, leading the Blue Bombers to a 30-23 win.

Weston Dressler picked up right where he left off after a 12-catch performance in Week 5, making two key catches for 60 yards on the game-opening drive. Nichols had two chances to pound the ball into the end zone after a spectacular Dressler catch brought the Bombers to the one-yard-line, but it was Winnipeg native Andrew Harris who strolled in for the score on third down, his first as a Bomber, to give the visitors a lead just four minutes into the game.

Justin Medlock tacked on a single on the ensuing kickoff, and the Bombers took an early 8-0 lead.

Nichols continued his hot start later in the first, showing some mobility by avoiding a sack and throwing downfield to Darvin Adams on a naked bootleg. He wasn’t so lucky just a few plays later however, as he was levelled by DL Marcus Howard for a big loss. The Bombers would settle for a Medlock field goal, bringing their lead to 11-0 midway through the first quarter.

With just a few minutes remaining in the first quarter, the Edmonton skies opened up, and the game entered a weather delay.

If the Eskimos were banking on the delay having any effect on the rhythm of the Bombers offence, they were sorely disappointed, as Nichols and the Bomber offence continued to roll despite a 30-minute break.

Harris picked up 45 yards on three carries on the Bombers’ first drive following the delay, and Medlock booted home his second field goal of the night to extend Winnipeg’s lead to 14.

After another ineffective drive from Reilly and the Eskimos, Nichols again had no trouble moving the ball, putting Medlock in position for his third field goal of the night and a 17-0 Bombers lead.

The new-look Bombers offence led by Nichols was the story of the game’s first half, with Nichols posting an 80 per cent completion rate for over 200 yards. Harris led the way on the ground with 104 yards on 15 carries, while Dressler was on pace for another 12-catch night with six grabs for 111 yards in the half.

The half was a thoroughly one-sided affair, with the Bombers nearly doubling the Eskimos time of possession. Though much of the focus was on Winnipeg’s offensive success in the half, their defence was nearly as impressive, holding Reilly to just 121 yards through the air and allowing just one rushing yard.

The second half started on a low note for a Bombers, as they learned that Dressler would miss the rest of the game with a lower-body injury.

Medlock added his fourth field goal of the night on the Bombers first possession of the half, extending the away team’s lead to 17.

Just when it seemed that the game may be all Winnipeg, the Eskimo offence made an appearance. A 35-yard pass interference penalty on the Bomber defence brought Reilly and the Eskimos into Bomber territory, and a 20-yard completion to Chris Getzlaf put them on the doorstep. RB Calvin McCarty sealed the deal with a two-yard scamper to paydirt, and the Eskimos pulled back to within 10 points.

Edmonton’s optimism wouldn’t last long however, as it took Nichols just five plays to find his first touchdown of the game. With his favourite target out, Nichols instead turned to Adams, who he found wide open in the end zone for a 20-yard score to extend the Bombers’ lead to 17 points.

Reilly continued to find some offensive success on the next drive, but the Eskimos were forced to kick a field goal and still trailed 27-13 heading into the fourth quarter.

After the Edmonton defence forced a quick punt, Reilly got back to work and found Derel Walker for a big completion, putting the receiver over 100 receiving yards for the fourth time in 2016.

But once again the Bombers’ defence stood tall when it mattered most, forcing another Whyte field goal and preserving a two-score lead.

With the Eskimos in desperation mode, a Reilly pass intended for Derel Walker was snapped up by rookie DB Terrence Fredrick, erasing a positive Eskimos drive and putting the home team’s backs against the wall.

Despite long odds for a comeback, Reilly kept battling, finding Derel Walker for a touchdown with just 17 seconds remaining in the game. But the onside kick attempt was recovered by the Bombers, sealing Winnipeg’s first victory in Edmonton in 10 years.

Dressler and Adams both recorded over 100 yards receiving for the Bombers in the victory, while Walker led all receivers with 148 yards and a touchdown. Reilly racked up 346 passing yards with one touchdown and one interception.

Following the big win, the Bombers will play host to the Tiger-Cats in week 7, who are fresh off a bye week following a stunning comeback victory over the Eskimos in Week 5.

The Eskimos will head east to Ontario, where they’ll look to get off a two-game skid against the East Division-leading REDBLACKS in the nation’s capital.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, July 29

Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

The Roughriders posted their first straight-up victory of the year in dramatic fashion on game-winning 53-yard field goal with just over a minute to play. The biggest storyline in last week’s upset was the play of Mitchell Gale in his first CFL start at quarterback for an injured Darian Durant. Gale threw for 354 yards and a score including eight completions to Naaman Roosevelt for 182 yards. Darian remains questionable to return to action this Friday night.

Montreal gave up 21 points in the second quarter of Monday night’s rout to help seal its third loss in four games. The Alouettes have been outscored 103-59 in those first four contests and the prospect for any kind of quick turnaround does not look good. Kevin Glenn was back under center for Montreal and despite the fact that he completed 24-of-28 attempts for 285 yards, he still could not get his team in the end zone more than once through the air.

Betting Trends

The Alouettes have covered ATS in six of the last eight meetings in this interdivision clash and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 16 of the last 21 meetings in Montreal.

British Columbia Lions (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (2-1-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5
Total: 49

Game Overview

The Lions have carved out the early lead in the West Division behind an offense that is averaging over 400 total yards a game with a solid balance between the pass and the run. They have also been stingy on the other side of the ball behind a defense that has only allowed an average of 18.3 points a game. They are coming off a bye week following a 40-27 victory against Saskatchewan in Week 4 as 1 ½-point underdogs on the road.

Calgary has now covered the spread in its last three games with the total going OVER in all three contests. Bo Levi Mitchell continued to light things up through the air with 310 yards passing and three touchdown throws in last week’s win against Winnipeg. He completed 70.7 percent of his 41 attempts while connecting with seven different receivers. Jerome Messam paced the Stampeders’ ground game with 65 yards on 13 carries.

Betting Trends

Head-to-head in this West Division rivalry, the Lions won the first meeting this season 20-18 as 2 ½-point home underdogs, but they have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against the Stampeders. The total has gone OVER the closing line in five of the last seven meetings in Calgary.

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Friday, July 29

Saskatchewan @ Montreal

Game 303-304
July 29, 2016 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Saskatchewan
107.905
Montreal
106.355
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Saskatchewan
by 1 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
by 1
50
Dunkel Pick:
Saskatchewan
(+1); Under

BC Lions @ Calgary

Game 305-306
July 29, 2016 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
BC Lions
113.941
Calgary
121.017
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 7
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 5
49
Dunkel Pick:
Calgary
(-5); Over


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Friday, July 29

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SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 3) at MONTREAL (1 - 3) - 7/29/2016, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 121-87 ATS (+25.3 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 52-32 ATS (+16.8 Units) in July games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 2-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 3-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BRITISH COLUMBIA (3 - 1) at CALGARY (2 - 1 - 1) - 7/29/2016, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 54-28 ATS (+23.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 89-61 ATS (+21.9 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1996.
BRITISH COLUMBIA is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games off a win over a division rival since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 5-2 against the spread versus BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 5-2 straight up against BRITISH COLUMBIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TREND REPORT

Friday, July 29

7:00 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. MONTREAL
Saskatchewan is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Saskatchewan is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Montreal's last 16 games when playing at home against Saskatchewan
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

10:00 PM
BRITISH COLUMBIA vs. CALGARY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of British Columbia's last 6 games when playing Calgary
British Columbia is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games
Calgary is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 12 games at home

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CFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Saskatchewan (1-3) @ Montreal (1-3)– Home side won five of last six series games; Roughriders are 2-6 in last eight visits here, but did win here in OT last year. Riders allowed 34.5 ppg in 1-3 start; they upset Ottawa at home LW– they lost 39-36 in OT at Edmonton in only road game- their last three games went over. Alouettes lost last three games, scoring 15.7 ppg; they’re 0-2 at home, losing by 15-24 to Ottawa/Hamilton- three of four Montreal games stayed under.

British Columbia (3-1) @ Calgary (2-1-1)– Lions upset Calgary 20-18 at home in season opener, outscoring Stamps 14-1 over last 21:00 of game- win snapped 5-game skid against the Stampeders. BC had last week off; they’re off to 3-1 start (under 3-1), winning road games by 25-17 points- three of their four games stayed under. Calgary is 2-0-1 in last three games, beating Winnipeg 36-22 (-10) in only home game. Stamps pushed total in last two games. Lions lost last three visits here, by 7-12-26 points.

[StarDust Bum]

PREVIEW

ALS, RIDERS EYE WIN NO. 2 IN MONTREAL ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

MONTREAL — For teams with identical 1-3 records, the respective moods around the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Montreal Alouettes entering Friday’s matchup at Percival Molson Stadium in Montreal is about as different as you could imagine.

The Riders are coming off what felt like a potential TSN turning point in their season, a 30-29 home win against the previously-undefeated Ottawa REDBLACKS in Week 5, while Montreal has lost three straight and only eclipsed the 20-point mark once this season.

Saskatchewan will once again turn to quarterback Mitchell Gale, who threw for 354 yards and a touchdown in his first-career start last week against Ottawa, as Darian Durant remains sidelined by a sprained ankle.

Montreal will hand the ball to veteran Kevin Glenn, who partially kick-started the Als’ sputtering offence in Week 5 with a 285-yard performance.

The Als will be retiring legendary receiver Ben Cahoon’s No. 86 in a pre-game ceremony.

The Riders appeared to have figured out some of their defensive woes in the second half of last week’s win over Ottawa. Saskatchewan, the league’s worst defence entering Week 5, managed to hold a potent Ottawa offence — albeit without pivot Trevor Harris — to just nine second-half points in a tight ballgame.

Led by the likes of star rookie Samuel Eguavoen (five tackles), Justin Cox (team-high six tackles) and Greg Jones (five tackles, forced fumble), the Rider defence looked confident and came up with key stops down the stretch to set up Tyler Crapigna’s game winner.

“All everyone on the offence, on the defence, on special teams can follow up with is just doing their jobs,” said quarterback Mitchell Gale. “We didn’t do anything crazy to get that win last week.”

Read that as: The Riders believe they’re better than their 1-3 record, and last week’s win indicated their true potential.

Gale gets another chance to show what he can do while Durant nurses his injury as the third pivot on the Rider depth chart.

“Mitchell’s been around football for a long time,” said Jones. “He threw for 12,000 yards and 97 touchdowns in college; he’s a guy that’s been around passing offences for quite some time, so I just want him to be Mitchell and not try to do more than that.”

Saskatchewan wideout Naaman Roosevelt continued his breakout sophomore season last week against Ottawa, hauling in 182 receiving yards and a touchdown en route to being named a CFL Top Performer.

“We can’t take this team lightly,” said Roosevelt of the Als. “We just have to go out there and take advantage of what they do wrong (and) build on last week.”

To illustrate just how much of a breakout season 2016 has been for the Buffalo alumnus, consider this: Roosevelt needs just 11 receiving yards to eclipse his total from his 10-game 2015 season. He’s only played in four games this year.

The Rider offence will be boosted by the return of Shamawd Chambers. The former Edmonton Eskimo has been limited to just six receptions and 43 yards through his first three games in Rider green, and will be hoping to return to his form from 2013 (42 receptions, 465 yards) this season.

Saskatchewan’s defence will see a change at halfback, where Major Culbert enters in place of Brandon McDonald, who was cut earlier this week.

For the Alouettes, Friday’s game represents a chance to stem the bleeding and maybe, just maybe, begin a journey back into the East’s playoff picture.

S.J. Green, Tyrell Sutton and Kenny Stafford all remain out for the Als, who have been trying desperately the past few weeks to come up with a patchwork offensive solution with both Rakeem Cato and now Kevin Glenn under centre.

“It will be a challenge to play against Chris Jones’s defence,” said Als wideout Sam Giguere. “They’re a complex, varied defence (and) their blitzes can be very different. Our coaches have prepared us well, we’re ready.”

Montreal will be taking the field just three days removed from a loss in Toronto against the Argos.

“There was a lot of stretching, going to bed early, that type of thing,” said Giguere. “It sounds simple, but it was a short week and we had to study the playbook and (simultaneously) focus on recuperating.”

The Als will be hoping their defence can once again come up with some big stops against a suddenly-surging Riders offence.

Linebackers Bear Woods (28 tackles, two sacks) and Chip Cox (22 tackles, two forced fumbles, one interception) will be keys if Montreal is to stop Gale and the Rider offence in its tracks.

Ultimately it will be up to Glenn and the playmakers he does still have at his disposal — i.e. B.J. Cunningham and vocal veteran Nik Lewis — to give the Als, who have averaged just 14.75 points per game this season, a chance to claim their first win on home turf in 2016.

By the Numbers

2 – Fumbles forced by Saskatchewan’s Greg Jones. Only Hamilton’s Stephen Courtney has more.

6 – Saskatchewan players with receiving TDs this season.

12 – Montreal turnovers, tied for most in the CFL.

59 – League-low points scored by the Alouettes through four games in 2016.

The Skinny

Friday’s matchup pits the CFL’s worst defence in Saskatchewan against the CFL’s worst offence in Montreal.

The Riders are flying high off the back of an emotional first win, while the Als have had all sorts of injuries and ultimately a struggling offence.

Whoever can gut out the win in Montreal will be propelled back into the playoff picture, while the loser will drop into the depths of the league standings.

A critical note here: All four winning teams in Week 5 scored 30-plus points. Whoever is able to better air it out — Gale vs. Glenn — will likely end up on the winning side of the equation.

Saskatchewan’s 0-1 on the road. Montreal’s 0-2 at home. Somebody’s going to leave Percival Molson Stadium on Friday night having bucked their early-season trends.

Kickoff is slated for 7 p.m. ET and can be seen live on TSN or followed online via CFL.ca GameTracker.