The Bum's National Football League Week # 14 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

Week 14 Tip Sheet
December 12, 2015


Steelers at Bengals (-3, 50) – 1:00 PM EST

The AFC North race is nearly wrapped up as Cincinnati (10-2 SU, 10-1-1 ATS) can close out the division title with a victory on Sunday. The Bengals go for the season sweep of their division rival after rallying past the Steelers, 16-10 in Week 8 at Heinz Field. Cincinnati is riding a two-game winning streak following blowouts of St. Louis and Cleveland the last two weeks, allowing a combined 10 points in those victories. Marvin Lewis’ club has cashed the ‘under’ in five of the past six games, while the Bengals are 4-0 SU/ATS against AFC North foes.

Pittsburgh (7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) is in the AFC Wild Card mix alongside the Jets, Chiefs, Texans, and Bills with four games remaining. The Steelers have won three of their last four games, including last Sunday’s 45-10 home blowout of the Colts as 10-point favorites. The offense is rolling right now by scoring at least 30 points in the previous four contests, registering the ‘over’ three times in this span. Mike Tomlin’s team won in last season’s visit to Paul Brown Stadium in a 42-21 blowout of the Bengals as three-point underdogs.

Falcons at Panthers (-8 ½, 46 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Through five weeks, Atlanta (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS) and Carolina were both undefeated as the Falcons held a half-game lead over the Panthers with a 5-0 record. Dan Quinn’s club hasn’t had much success since that unbeaten stretch, posting a 1-5 mark the previous six games to fall out of playoff contention. The most recent setback came last Sunday at Tampa Bay in a 23-19 defeat as one-point underdogs, dropping to 0-3 inside the NFC South. Atlanta has been the worst pointspread team in the league dating back to early October, compiling an 0-8 ATS mark the past eight contests.

Only one unbeaten team in the league remains as Carolina (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) looks to clinch a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs with a victory. The Panthers held off the Saints in a 41-38 shootout at the Superdome last week, but failed to cover as 5 ½-point road favorites. Carolina’s offense has helped lift the Panthers to the best record in the NFL as Ron Rivera’s team has cashed the ‘over’ in five of the last six games. The Panthers have won five of the past six matchups with the Falcons, including Week 17 of the 2014 season at the Georgia Dome to clinch the NFC South title.

Bills at Eagles (-1, 47) – 1:00 PM EST

The NFC East race is still a mess heading into Week 14 with not one team owning a record better than 5-7. Philadelphia (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) snapped a three-game skid to pull into a three-way tie for first in the division by upsetting New England as 9 ½-point road underdogs, 35-28. The Eagles scored three non-offensive touchdowns (punt return, punt block, and interception return) as Chip Kelly’s offense produced only 248 yards in the win. Philadelphia has lost each of its last two home contests, while winning two of three games against AFC East foes this season.

The Bills (6-6 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) ended a two-game losing streak in a critical 30-21 home triumph over the Texans to remain in the AFC Wild Card race. Buffalo broke the 24-point mark for the first time in four games as Tyrod Taylor threw three touchdown passes in the victory. LeSean McCoy faces his former team for the first time since getting dealt to the Bills in the offseason as the Buffalo running back broke the 1,000 yard rushing mark for the season in a 112-yard performance against Houston. Rex Ryan’s team has split six road games this season, while beginning a three-game stretch against NFC East opponents with Washington and Dallas ahead the next two weeks.

Saints at Buccaneers (-4 ½, 50 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

One of the league’s biggest disappointments resides in the Big Easy as New Orleans (4-8 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) sits at the bottom of the NFC South. The Saints’ defense continues to be a major disappointment, allowing at least 40 points in three of the past five games, including a 41-point spot in last week’s home defeat to the Panthers. New Orleans tries to snap a four-game skid as Sean Payton’s club lost in its first matchup with Tampa Bay in Week 2 by a 26-19 count as 9 ½-point favorites. The Saints have won in three straight visits to Raymond James Stadium, but New Orleans has dropped five of six road contests this season.

Tampa Bay (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS) continues to be one of the top surprises in the league this season, even if the Buccaneers fall short of the playoffs. The Buccaneers held off the Falcons last Sunday, 23-19 to complete the season sweep of Atlanta, while improving to 3-1 inside the NFC South. Tampa Bay lost its first two home games of the season prior to winning three of its past four home contests, as Lovie Smith’s squad is listed at its highest favorite price this season on Sunday (Bucs failed to cover as three-point home favorites in season-opening loss to Titans).

Cowboys at Packers (-6 ½, 42 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

The last time these teams got together at Lambeau Field back in January, Green Bay eliminated Dallas in the second round of the playoffs in controversial fashion. Dez Bryant’s 31-yard reception on fourth-and-two that would have put Dallas at the Green Bay 1 with four minutes remaining was reversed by instant replay. The Packers picked up a 26-21 victory and advanced to the NFC Championship where they ultimately lost in overtime to the Seahawks.

Amazingly, Dallas (4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS) is still in contention to claim the NFC East crown after staying alive with a 19-16 victory at Washington last Monday as two-point underdogs. The Cowboys won their first game without Tony Romo starting at quarterback, as Matt Cassel threw for 223 yards to pick up his first victory as a starting quarterback since Week 1 of the 2014 season. Dallas has won each of its last two contests away from home at Miami and Washington, but has lost its previous three visits to Lambeau Field since 2009.

The Packers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) pulled off the “Motor City Miracle” last Thursday when Aaron Rodgers hit Richard Rodgers on a 61-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass to lift Green Bay past Detroit, 27-23 as 2 ½-point favorites. Green Bay owns a half-game lead over Minnesota in the NFC North race after the Vikings lost at Arizona, as Mike McCarthy’s team has failed to cover in each of their last three home contests. The Packers have struggled in the favorite role recently, going 1-5 ATS the past six games when laying points, including outright home losses to the Lions and Bears.

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SNF - Patriots at Texans

December 11, 2015


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS (6-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line: New England -3, Total: 44.5

Tom Brady and the suddenly human New England Patriots will travel to Houston for a showdown with former back-up Brian Hoyer and the Houston Texans on Sunday Night.

New England (10-2 SU, 5-4-3 ATS) dropped its 2nd straight following a 10-0 start, fell out of the top spot in the AFC, and failed to win ATS for the 4th straight week (0-3-1) in a 35-28 defeat at home against Philadelphia. The Patriots ran 28 more plays for 179 more total yards, but were undone by three non-offensive Eagles’ touchdowns (INT return, punt return, blocked punt return). New England could not hold a 14 point lead for the second week in a row as the Eagles stormed back from the early deficit with 35 unanswered points, then held off a late Patriots rally for the win. New England suffered losses in consecutive games for the first time since 2012.

Houston (6-6 SU & ATS) saw their four game winning streak end at the hands of Buffalo, 30-21. The team failed to cover the spread for the first time since Week 8, thanks in large part to 187 rushing yards from the Bills, the most allowed by the Texans since Week 8, and 2nd most overall this season. Historical and coaching trends heavily favor the Patriots, but quarterback play and recent results trend surprisingly even. New England is 170-130 ATS against the AFC and 157-121 ATS in all games after Week 4 since 1992. Bill Belichick is 118-84 ATS against the AFC, and 42-23 ATS following a loss as coach of the Patriots.

At QB, Brady has the overwhelming experience factor, having started more games since the start of last season than Hoyer has in his career, but since the start of last season, Hoyer has gone 11-8-1 ATS in games started, compared with a 14-11-3 mark for Brady. Brady is 23-20 in his last 45 road games (two pushes), while Hoyer is 10-6 in his last 16 home games. The Patriots have also lost three straight road games ATS, while the Texans have won three straight home games ATS.

Injuries are of minor note, at least for the Patriots, with DT Dominique Easley (ankle), DB Justin Coleman (hand), and Rob Gronkowski (knee) all questionable. Houston has a near clean bill of health, with the exception of G Brandon Brooks, questionable with an illness.

Monster offensive performances from both the Cardinals and Steelers knocked the Patriots back to 3rd in the league in total offense, despite New England adding two YPG to their season average against the Eagles. They eclipsed 400 total yards for the 7th time this season, thanks in large part to Brady’s 7th 300+ yard passing game of the season. Brady will be coming out angry in this meeting with Houston. He was furious after losing to the Broncos two weeks ago and that will only double after what happened against the Eagles last week. This offense will be looking to make a statement, but the Patriots must avoid turnovers and mistakes on special teams in order to win.

The Patriots will face their 2nd high-ranking pass defense in three weeks, as Houston has allowed just 218.3 passing YPG (3rd in the league), pacing a defense allowing 332.3 total YPG (7th in the league). The Texans are also 1st in the NFL in 3rd down conversion rate allowed, at just 28.7%, nearly 4% better than any other team in the league. Brian Hoyer will be looking forward to playing against his former team in this one and he gets to face the team at its most vulnerable point in the season.

DeAndre Hopkins has caught 86 passes for 1,169 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, but he will draw a matchup with Malcolm Butler in this one. Hopkins must find a way to be productive if the Texans offense is going to put up enough points to come away with a victory on Sunday.

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Colts will be without 2 key defensive players against Jags
December 12, 2015

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) The Indianapolis Colts have ruled out linebacker Erik Walden and starting cornerback Greg Toler for Sunday's game at Jacksonville.

Neither player made the trip to Florida.

Walden is out with an injured foot. Toler hurt his knee in last weekend's loss at Pittsburgh.

Indianapolis (6-6) had already said four other players would not play.

Quarterback Andrew Luck will miss his fourth straight game with a lacerated kidney and a partially torn abdominal muscle.

Left tackle Anthony Castonzo (right knee), inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman (hamstring and ribs) were ruled out Friday. Team officials also decided to hold outside linebacker Daniel Adongo out after police showed up at his suburban Indianapolis house Thursday morning to check on the welfare of a woman inside the home.

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Rams secondary banged up for Sunday
December 11, 2015

ST. LOUIS (AP) The St. Louis Rams could have a makeshift secondary this week with top cornerback Janoris Jenkins still in concussion protocol and safety T.J. McDonald out for the year.

The Rams will get cornerback Trumaine Johnson back Sunday when the Rams (4-8) host the Detroit Lions (4-8). Johnson missed the last two weeks with a thigh injury.

''Trumaine is up and ready to roll,'' defensive coordinator Greg Williams said after practice Friday. ''I'm anxious to watch him play again. He's been playing well all year. He'll be fine.''

St. Louis has just four cornerbacks on the roster. With Johnson out and Jenkins getting hurt, the Rams finished Sunday's 27-3 loss to Arizona with only Marcus Roberson and Lamarcus Joyner at the spot.

Jenkins twice had collisions with teammates against the Cardinals. Early in the game, Jenkins and McDonald ran into each other on a pass from Carson Palmer to Michael Floyd. Jenkins was then checked for concussion symptoms.

After being cleared, Jenkins returned. He then had another collision when he and Mark Barron tangled up in the third quarter on a touchdown pass to David Johnson.

Jenkins left the game and did not come back.

In his fourth season, Jenkins had his team high 12th pass breakup before leaving the Arizona game with a concussion. He has three interceptions and 52 tackles in 12 games.

Jenkins did not practice this week.

''He's in the (concussion) protocol and is listed as doubtful,'' coach Jeff Fisher said.

Getting Johnson back will help soften the blow of missing Jenkins.

Johnson got his team-leading fourth interception when he picked off Baltimore's Joe Flacco and returned it 25 yards in the third quarter in Week 11. He pulled his thigh on the play and has not played since.

''I knew the second it happened,'' Johnson said. ''I couldn't run no more. It would have been six, for sure. But now I'm back. It's not going to be 100 (percent) but it's good enough to play on Sunday.''

Johnson is looking forward to being matched against Detroit receiver Calvin Johnson.

''He's a beast, one of the best. He's big and physical,'' he said. ''He's a good receiver. I'm looking forward to it. It's going to be fun, a Johnson versus Johnson show on Sunday.''

Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford has another talented receiver in Golden Tate. Tight ends Brandon Pettigrew and Eric Ebron also figure in as prime targets.

''Yeah, we've got our work cut out for us but there opportunity there, too,'' Williams said. ''Can we make some breaks on the ball? Can we do a good job on pass breakups? Can we rush the passer? Coverage and rush all go hand in hand.''

The Rams remain without two-time Pro Bowl end Robert Quinn, who will undergo back surgery. Quinn started the first seven games.

After missing a game, Quinn played sparingly against Chicago. He has been inactive for the last three games.

Eugene Sims has stepped into Quinn's spot.

''Eugene has done well,'' Williams said. ''He's gotten better and better. Eugene may be the toughest individual in that entire building. If a fight broke out, I'd want to go stand behind him. That's not a lot of fall-off from just the toughness aspect of it.''

''Robert is a rare pass rusher. There's not many people that can do the things he can do in this league. He's blessed.''

McDonald will have shoulder surgery. He is a valued member of the secondary where he is a weapon in run support. He also ranks among the hardest hitters which makes receivers wary.

Backup Maurice Alexander, a core special teams player, will start in McDonald's spot. It will be the second start for the second-year pro, his first coming Nov. 8 at Minnesota. He has two sacks this season.

''He's come a long way. He had a great preseason,'' Fisher said. ''When he's played, with the exception of one touchdown pass that caught him with his eyes in the wrong place, but when he filled in for T.J., he did a nice job. We're expecting him to finish up the year strong. It'll be a really good opportunity for him.''

Alexander agreed.

''I'm excited, man. I'm ready to go,'' Alexander said. ''There's a good group of receivers over there in Detroit and it'll be a challenge.''

NOTES: The Rams will wear special all yellow uniforms for next Thursday night's home game, the final one in 2015, against Tampa Bay. In practice Friday, numerous players wore the all yellow cleats. ... TE Lance Kendricks is listed as probable and has passed the NFL concussion protocol. ... Also listed as probable are WR West Welker (calf), QB Case Keenum (concussion), DE William Hayes (thigh), and K Zach Hocker (thigh)

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NFL ATS

NFL > (117) SAN DIEGO@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO against the spread in All games versus division opponents
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-9.9 units)

NFL > (111) SAN FRANCISCO@ (112) CLEVELAND | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN FRANCISCO against the spread in All games in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points
The record is 0 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-9.9 units)

NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the this season (+8 units)

NFL > (105) PITTSBURGH@ (106) CINCINNATI | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play ON CINCINNATI against the spread in all games
The record is 10 Wins and 1 Losses for the this season (+8.9 units)

NFL > (123) TENNESSEE@ (124) NY JETS | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games against conference opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 15 Losses for the last two seasons (-13.5 units)

NFL > (133) NY GIANTS@ (134) MIAMI | 2015-12-14 20:30:00 - 2015-12-14 20:30:00
Play ON NY GIANTS against the spread in Road games against AFC East division opponents
The record is 13 Wins and 2 Losses for the since 1992 (+10.8 units)

NFL > (123) TENNESSEE@ (124) NY JETS | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE against the spread in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 4 Wins and 15 Losses for the last two seasons (-12.5 units)

NFL > (109) ATLANTA@ (110) CAROLINA | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST ATLANTA against the spread in All games off a division game
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the last two seasons (-7.7 units)

NFL > (129) DALLAS@ (130) GREEN BAY | 2015-12-13 16:25:00 - 2015-12-13 16:25:00
Play ON DALLAS against the spread in Road games in games played on a grass field
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)

NFL > (129) DALLAS@ (130) GREEN BAY | 2015-12-13 16:25:00 - 2015-12-13 16:25:00
Play ON DALLAS against the spread in All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 9 Wins and 1 Losses for the last two seasons (+7.9 units)

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NFL MONEYLINE

NFL > (115) DETROIT@ (116) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST DETROIT using money line in Road games against NFC West division opponents
The record is 3 Wins and 21 Losses for the since 1992 (-20.3 units)

NFL > (123) TENNESSEE@ (124) NY JETS | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TENNESSEE using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 7 Wins and 27 Losses for the last three seasons (-24.9 units)

NFL > (109) ATLANTA@ (110) CAROLINA | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play ON CAROLINA using money line in All games after 2 or more consecutive wins
The record is 13 Wins and 2 Losses for the last two seasons (+12.2 units)

NFL > (129) DALLAS@ (130) GREEN BAY | 2015-12-13 16:25:00 - 2015-12-13 16:25:00
Play ON GREEN BAY using money line in Home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 41 Wins and 6 Losses for the since 1992 (+30.65 units)

NFL > (131) SEATTLE@ (132) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play ON BALTIMORE using money line in Home games in non-conference games
The record is 30 Wins and 6 Losses for the since 1992 (+23 units)

NFL > (125) NEW ENGLAND@ (126) HOUSTON | 2015-12-13 20:30:00 - 2015-12-13 20:30:00
Play ON NEW ENGLAND using money line in All games against AFC South division opponents
The record is 28 Wins and 7 Losses for the since 1992 (+21.9 units)

NFL > (121) INDIANAPOLIS@ (122) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using money line in All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 26 Wins and 9 Losses for the last three seasons (+21.55 units)

NFL > (115) DETROIT@ (116) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST ST LOUIS using money line in Home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 15 Wins and 22 Losses for the since 1992 (-32.25 units)

NFL > (129) DALLAS@ (130) GREEN BAY | 2015-12-13 16:25:00 - 2015-12-13 16:25:00
Play ON GREEN BAY using money line in Home games in December games
The record is 44 Wins and 7 Losses for the since 1992 (+31.3 units)

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NFL FIRST HALF

NFL > (129) DALLAS@ (130) GREEN BAY | 2015-12-13 16:25:00 - 2015-12-13 16:25:00
Play ON DALLAS ?>in the first halfin Road games in games played on a grass field
The record is 10 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+10 units)

NFL > (129) DALLAS@ (130) GREEN BAY | 2015-12-13 16:25:00 - 2015-12-13 16:25:00
Play ON DALLAS ?>in the first halfin All games in games played on a grass field
The record is 10 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+10 units)

NFL > (133) NY GIANTS@ (134) MIAMI | 2015-12-14 20:30:00 - 2015-12-14 20:30:00
Play ON NY GIANTS ?>in the first halfin Road games against AFC East division opponents
The record is 15 Wins and 1 Losses for the since 1992 (+13.9 units)

NFL > (115) DETROIT@ (116) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play ON ST LOUIS ?>in the first halfin All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 15 Wins and 3 Losses for the last two seasons (+11.7 units)

NFL > (131) SEATTLE@ (132) BALTIMORE | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST BALTIMORE ?>in the first halfin All games when playing with 6 or less days rest
The record is 0 Wins and 7 Losses for the this season (-7.7 units)

NFL > (117) SAN DIEGO@ (118) KANSAS CITY | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST SAN DIEGO ?>in the first halfin All games in a road game where the first half total is between 21.5 and 22.5
The record is 12 Wins and 33 Losses for the since 1992 (-24.3 units)

NFL > (119) NEW ORLEANS@ (120) TAMPA BAY | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play AGAINST TAMPA BAY ?>in the first halfin Home games against conference opponents
The record is 1 Wins and 9 Losses for the last two seasons (-8.9 units)

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NFL TOTALS

NFL > (109) ATLANTA@ (110) CAROLINA | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin Home games off a win against a division rival
The record is 6 Overs and 28 Unders for the since 1992 (+21.4 units)

NFL > (115) DETROIT@ (116) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin Road games in games played on turf
The record is 0 Overs and 9 Unders for the last three seasons (+9 units)

NFL > (127) OAKLAND@ (128) DENVER | 2015-12-13 16:05:00 - 2015-12-13 16:05:00
Play OVER DENVER on the totalin All games in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points
The record is 37 Overs and 11 Unders for the since 1992 (+24.9 units)

NFL > (115) DETROIT@ (116) ST LOUIS | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play UNDER DETROIT on the totalin Road games against conference opponents
The record is 2 Overs and 14 Unders for the last three seasons (+11.8 units)

NFL > (109) ATLANTA@ (110) CAROLINA | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play UNDER ATLANTA on the totalin All games after 2 or more consecutive losses
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last two seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (121) INDIANAPOLIS@ (122) JACKSONVILLE | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play OVER INDIANAPOLIS on the totalin Road games versus division opponents
The record is 8 Overs and 0 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (125) NEW ENGLAND@ (126) HOUSTON | 2015-12-13 20:30:00 - 2015-12-13 20:30:00
Play UNDER HOUSTON on the totalin All games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (111) SAN FRANCISCO@ (112) CLEVELAND | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play UNDER CLEVELAND on the totalin All games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season
The record is 0 Overs and 8 Unders for the last three seasons (+8 units)

NFL > (109) ATLANTA@ (110) CAROLINA | 2015-12-13 13:00:00 - 2015-12-13 13:00:00
Play UNDER CAROLINA on the totalin Home games
The record is 2 Overs and 32 Unders for the since 1992 (+29.8 units)

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O'Brien set to meet mentor Belichick
December 12, 2015

HOUSTON (AP) When Houston coach Bill O'Brien left his job as offensive coordinator at Duke to join coach Bill Belichick's staff as an offensive quality control coach for the New England Patriots in 2007, his wife wasn't exactly thrilled at the move.

Nor by the pay cut that came with it.

''I was making a decent salary and didn't quite make that same salary in New England, so she didn't quite have the divorce papers written up just then. That came later for other reasons,'' O'Brien joked. ''My suitcase was not on the porch, but I don't think she was real thrilled about the ol' salary.''

The move ended up working out for O'Brien. He spent four years with Belichick in New England before coaching Penn State for two seasons and returning to the NFL as Houston's coach in 2014. On Sunday night, O'Brien will face his mentor for the first time when the Texans host the Patriots.

''I think Bill is a great coach, one of the best that I've had,'' Belichick said. ''He's right up there with all those guys. Very unusual to do what he did, to go from a coordinator position to a quality control position on our staff, but I think that shows you his work ethic, the confidence he has in himself.''

After that first year O'Brien was promoted to wide receivers coach, and coached quarterbacks in 2009-10 before becoming New England's offensive coordinator in 2011. So many people have worked for or played under Belichick that he's asked almost every week whether a person's familiarity with his system will be an advantage when it comes time for the game.

He scoffed at that notion.

''It's really pretty common,'' Belichick said. ''It's probably more common that that is the case than it isn't. In the end this game is going to come down to the teams on the field, how well they can execute and make plays at critical times in the game.''

The Patriots have lost two in a row after opening the season 10-0 and are looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak since dropping four straight from Sept. 29-Oct. 27, 2002. Houston will try to bounce back from a 30-21 loss to Buffalo that snapped a four-game winning streak.

Some things to know about the Patriots-Texans game:

WATT'S HAND: Houston star defensive end J.J. Watt broke his left hand on practice on Wednesday, but said he'll start on Sunday. Watt, who leads the NFL with 13 1/2 sacks, doesn't expect the injury to slow him down.

''There's really not a whole lot to it, football is a game where things happen,'' Watt said. ''You play through it, you go out there, you do whatever you can to help your team win. So that's what I plan to do.''

DROP EVERYTHING: New England quarterback Tom Brady's season-long numbers are again impressive, with 3,912 yards passing, 31 touchdowns and six interceptions in 12 games.

But they could be even better.

According to game-charting from Pro Football Focus, Brady has had a league-worst 41 passes dropped by his receivers - 11 more than the QB with the second most, Oakland's Derek Carr. In last week's loss to the Eagles, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola and Keshawn Martin had balls go through their hands on New England's final three plays when it had a chance to tie the game or win.

''I certainly have confidence in the guys that I'm throwing the ball to or else I wouldn't throw it to them,'' Brady said. ''I think it's just a matter of us ultimately going and making the plays when we have the opportunity to do it.''

QUARTERBACK CAROUSEL: Houston's Brian Hoyer will be the fifth quarterback to start for the Texans against New England on Sunday. The quarterback position in Houston has been a revolving door for the last few years and Hoyer is one of three quarterbacks to start for the Texans this season alone.

O'Brien has seen a lot of growth from Hoyer since he coached him in New England in the quarterback's first three NFL seasons as Brady's backup.

''With experience in different systems and ... Brian having to go through a lot in his career, being injured, being cut, he has a lot of resiliency, mental toughness, very bright guy, so yeah, he has grown a ton since I had him in 2009,'' O'Brien said.

LOSING STREAK: How quickly can things change in the NFL?

In eight days, the New England Patriots went from thinking about a 16-0 season to the owners of a two-game losing streak. If the season ended now, the Patriots would lose tiebreakers with Cincinnati and Denver and be the No. 3 seed in the AFC and host the New York Jets in the wild-card round.

The Patriots have had a first-round bye in every season since 2010. It would be especially useful this year, with tight end Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman nursing week-to-week injuries that could use more time to rest.

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Clausen starts at QB for Ravens vs Seahawks
December 13, 2015

BALTIMORE (AP) Jimmy Clausen will replace injured Matt Schaub as the starting quarterback for the Baltimore Ravens against the Seattle Seahawks.

Schaub was placed on the inactive list Sunday. Bryn Renner will be Clausen's backup.

Clausen was signed off waivers by the Ravens on Nov. 24, two days after starter Joe Flacco was lost for the season with a knee injury.

Schaub started the past two games for Baltimore, but did not practice this week because of a chest injury.

This will be Clausen's second start against Seattle this season. He went 9 for 17 for 63 yards for the Bears in a 26-0 defeat on Sept. 27.

Clausen will be the sixth quarterback since 1950 to start against the same team with two different clubs, according to STATS. The last was Kyle Orton in 2011.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 13

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at BAL 01:00 PM

SEA -10.5 TRIPLE PLAY

O 42.0


NO at TB 01:00 PM

NO +5.5 DOUBLE PLAY

O 51.5 DOUBLE PLAY


ATL at CAR 01:00 PM

CAR -8.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 45.0


DET at STL 01:00 PM

DET -3.0 BLOW OUT

U 41.5


SF at CLE 01:00 PM

SF +2.0 TRIPLE PLAY

O 43.5 TRIPLE PLAY


PIT at CIN 01:00 PM

PIT +1.0 BLOW OUT

O 48.5 BLOW OUT


IND at JAC 01:00 PM

JAC -1.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 45.5


BUF at PHI 01:00 PM

BUF +2.0 BLOW OUT

U 47.5


TEN at NYJ 01:00 PM

TEN +8.0

U 43.0


WAS at CHI 01:00 PM

WAS +4.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 42.5 TRIPLE PLAY


SD at KC 01:00 PM

KC -11.0 DOUBLE PLAY

U 42.0 BLOW OUT

[StarDust Bum]

LATE GAME:

OAK at DEN 04:05 PM

OAK +5.5 TRIPLE PLAY

U 43.0 BLOW OUT


DAL at GB 04:25 PM

GB -5.5 BLOW OUT

U 43.0 DOUBLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday Night Football

NE at HOU 08:30 PM

HOU +4.5 TRIPLE PLAY

U 46.0 TRIPLE PLAY

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December Ups and Downs
December 14, 2015

NFL parity is alive and well in 2015! The Jets had a surprising 4-1 SU/ATS start under their new coach....then came back to earth with a losing streak along with a 0-3-1 ATS run. Andy Reid's Chiefs were at the morgue after a 1-5 SU/ATS start, then rose from the dead on a 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS run to get back in it. The Packers looked like the team to beat in the NFC winning their first six games....then looked like Jacksonville during an ugly 0-3 SU/ATS slide.

And speaking of Jacksonville, the laughable Jaguars started 1-5...then beat the Titans in a Thursday night game to pull within a game of first place! Along the way they covered 4 in a row, off a 51-16 beatdown of Indy to pull within a game of first place.

Every team has flaws that can be exploited. The Patriots have had a great season, but injuries have slowed down their unstoppable offense. The Dolphins have been all over the map depending on which head coach was running the show. Seattle went from two-time NFC champs to one struggling behind a terrible offensive line this season. The Atlanta Falcons started 5-0 for their new coach, but since have stumbled badly on both sides of the ball.

The season is littered with flops. The Lions, Dolphins, Chargers, Colts and Saints were expected to be better. The Rams have had high hopes the last three years with a slew of draft picks, but have been maddeningly inconsistent because of quarterback play and an ultra-conservative offense. Note to Jeff Fisher: Have you heard of the forward pass? It is a part of the game, you know.

The fact is it's always like this, which is why we love the game. A year ago the Chiefs destroyed the Patriots on national TV then later beat Seattle, the two teams that ended up in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs, meanwhile, missed the playoffs despite beating the best of each conference.

Last season how many teams with losing records can say they beat the Broncos, 49ers and then-defending champion Seahawks? Only the Rams could, if you can believe that. Of course, they have trouble with the bad teams, for some reason. "Hey Jeff Fisher, ever hear of"...oh, I covered that.

Oddsmakers make adjustments on teams all during the season, such as six years ago when the Saints and Colts started red hot. After starting 6-0 SU/ATS, the Saints went 2-8 ATS to end the regular season, often as a double digit favorite. That's what can happen to public teams, either popular teams or ones with a flashy offense like the 2013 Broncos, 2009 Saints and 2007 Patriots.

Normally we are at the time of the pro football campaign where some teams have mentally and physically packed in the season. It's been a lost season or one with higher expectations and players, especially ones on poorly coached teams, can just go through the motions. That can show up on the scoreboard and at the wagering window.

The 49ers and Ravens are dealing with lost seasons, the latter with much higher expectations. Two years ago, Houston lost 10 in a row after a 2-0 start and then fired their coach. The Redskins went from a division title in 2012 to a train wreck the last three seasons. Dejected teams can often be money-burners, too. Do you think it’s fun in 2015 to play for the Browns, Jags, Ravens, Lions, 49ers and Saints down the stretch of this lost campaign?

Those teams need to be watched closely as on the bubble for packing it in, along with the Titans, who are already on their second head coach. Pro players have pride and know the score. Taking out their frustrations on a powerhouse team is not uncommon. The good teams aren't that much better from year to year than bad ones. Parity and the salary cap have leveled the playing field and schedules are longer, all of which makes it that much harder to dominate.

The 1962 Green Bay Packers enjoyed a 10-0 start on the way to a 13-1 season, ending in a 16-7 win in the championship game over the Giants as one of Vince Lombardi's best teams. They came close to running the table, except for a surprising Thanksgiving Day loss to Detroit, 26-14 (trailing 26-0 to the fired up Lions). Even NFL David's can be gunning for Goliath this time of the season -- if they haven't already packed it in.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Giants at Dolphins
December 13, 2015

The Giants and Dolphins enter Monday night’s contest at Sun Life Stadium with identical 5-7 records. However, New York has an opportunity to pull into a first-place tie atop the NFC East with Philadelphia and Washington with a victory, while Miami is sitting outside the AFC Wild Card race. The Giants have had plenty of opportunities to run away with the division title, losing five games this season when leading in the fourth quarter.

The most recent meltdown for Tom Coughlin’s squad came in last Sunday’s 23-20 overtime setback to the Jets. The Giants failed to cash as 2 ½-point underdogs, while blowing a 20-10 fourth quarter advantage. Eli Manning hooked up with Odell Beckham, Jr. on a 72-yard touchdown strike late in the second quarter, but the Giants would score only three points in the final 38 minutes of the game. The controversy that arose from this loss was Coughlin going for it on fourth and two at the Jets four-yard line with a 10-point lead instead of taking the three points. Manning was intercepted and the Giants eventually lost their third straight game.

Miami snapped a two-game skid in a 15-13 home triumph over Baltimore last Sunday, but couldn’t cover as 3 ½-point favorites. The Dolphins built a 15-0 cushion in the second quarter thanks to a Devante Parker 38-yard touchdown reception, followed up by a Derrick Shelby interception return for a score in the span of 20 seconds. Dan Campbell’s team didn’t put up a single point in the second half, as the Dolphins managed the win in spite of Ryan Tannehill throwing for only 86 yards. The Dolphins have been outgained from a yardage standpoint for the sixth straight game, while winning only their second home contest in five tries this season.

The Giants have not performed well on Monday night football with Manning at quarterback, losing in five of the last six opportunities since 2011. In this span, New York is 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, including a 27-7 blowout loss at Philadelphia back in Week 6. The Dolphins have failed to cover in three Monday night contests with Tannehill under center since 2012, with the only straight-up victory coming last December against the Jets in a 16-13 win as 6 ½-point favorites.

New York is making its first trip to Sun Life Stadium since 1996, as the last time the Dolphins were listed as the home team in this matchup came in 2007 in London. The Dolphins lost that contest, 13-10 as 10-point underdogs at Wembley Stadium, while losing another three-point decision at Met Life Stadium in 2011 by a 20-17 count as 9 ½-point ‘dogs. New York outgained Miami, 402-246 in that home victory, even though the Giants had to erase a 17-10 fourth quarter deficit by scoring the final 10 points of the game.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says New York has taken advantage of turnovers this season, “The Giants have been fortunate with 23 takeaways, tied for the second most in the league sitting with a +9 overall turnover margin, which is third best in the NFL. Those extra chances have helped to make up for a defense that has allowed over 423 yards per game, the second worst average in the NFL with by far the league’s worst passing yards per game allowed average at over 314 yards per game.”

On the flip side, Nelson breaks down the ineptitude of the Dolphins’ offense the last few weeks, “Miami is one of the least productive passing teams in the NFL as well as one of the worst rushing teams with the Dolphins the fourth least productive offensive team in the NFL and the sixth-worst scoring team. After making a coaching change with a 1-3 start, the Dolphins are actually 4-4 since but over the last six games, Miami has scored just 15.5 points per game.”

Underdogs continue to rule Monday night football this season, improving to 11-2-1 ATS after Dallas knocked off Washington last Monday. Four of the last five teams listed in the underdog role have won outright with New England being only the favorite in this span to pick up a victory back in Week 11. The ‘under’ has connected 11 of 14 times in Monday action as the winning team has scored 22 points or less in four of the previous five weeks.

There aren’t many total trends that are favorable each way in this matchup. The Giants are 3-3 to the ‘over’ away from Met Life Stadium, but have cashed the ‘under’ in each of their last two games. Miami has finished ‘under’ the total in four of the past six contests overall, while not scoring more than 15 points in each of its last two home games.

Miami opened up as a one-point favorite, but the line has swung towards New York as the Giants are currently two-point chalk at most books. The total sits between 46 ½ and 47 across the board as weather should be no factor with temperatures expected in the upper 70’s. Kickoff is set for 8:30 PM EST from Sun Life Stadium and the game can be seen on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Giants (5-7) at Dolphins (5-7)
Date: December 14, 2015 8:30 PM EDT

The only future Tom Coughlin is concerned with involves the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. The result, however, could play a part in his future as the coach of the New York Giants.

After another questionable coaching decision played a part in yet another tough-to-swallow loss, the Giants attempt to snap a three-game skid and at least maintain a share of first place against the Dolphins.

Coughlin has led New York (5-7) to two Super Bowl titles, but his team has missed the playoffs for three straight years. The Giants' only avenue to end that skid is winning the lowly NFC East, where they're tied for first with Philadelphia and Washington.

Controversial play-calling for New York has contributed to the logjam with five of its losses coming on fourth-quarter collapses in the final two minutes. The Giants have been outscored by 12 points in those games, including last week's 23-20 overtime loss to the New York Jets.

They blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead to their Big Apple rival after Coughlin opted to go for it on fourth-and-2 at the Jets 4 with 8:50 left in regulation instead of kicking a field goal. Eli Manning tossed an interception.

The defeat - which also included Josh Brown missing a 48-yard field goal in overtime - only increased the cries for Coughlin's ouster.

"I don't pay any attention," Coughlin said. "I try to stay focused for the benefit of my team, my coaches and everybody else. You can all disagree. We are trying to win games the best way we can.

"To be honest with you, nobody knows my team better than I know my team. When you sit in judgment of what goes on, it's all been thought out, whether you like it or not and whether it's right or wrong."

The Giants have been outscored by 10 points during their three-game losing streak.

"Coach put us in a position, he trusts us to go make a play, and we've got to do it," Manning said. "We've got to play better at some critical moments in the game. We do some good things, we get close, we do a lot of good things, and it's just kind of that final step, those last few yards, and the difference between winning games and losing games. We're just not making that crucial play to get us the win."

Manning has four interceptions compared to three touchdowns over the last two games, completing 51.8 percent of his passes with a 67.7 passer rating.

The onus is on Manning to get the offense going since the running game ranks 29th in the league with 88.1 yards per game - 62.3 over the last three. The running backs have only managed three touchdowns, and they'll need two over the final four weeks to avoid matching the franchise's 16-game season low in 1996.

Miami's run defense, however, ranks 30th at an average of 134.8 yards against, a big reason it's staring at a franchise-record seventh straight season without a trip to the playoffs.

The Dolphins held Baltimore to 94 yards on 26 carries last Sunday, though, in a 15-13 win over Baltimore. Miami's offense managed just eight first downs while totaling 219 yards.

The Dolphins got 107 of their 137 rushing yards on 20 carries by Lamar Miller in their first game with quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor calling the plays. He replaced offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, who was fired earlier in the week.

"I'm a big believer that you do need more balance," coach Dan Campbell said. "We did what we needed to do to win that game. We ran it well, and the defense played really good football. It's a good formula."

The formula could change with the Giants ranking last in the NFL in pass defense, giving up 314.5 yards per game - 355.6 over the last five.

That could be reason enough to get Ryan Tannehill more involved after he completed 9 of 19 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens. That came a week after he threw the ball a career-high 58 times, completing 33 for 351 yards with three TDs and one interception in a 38-20 loss to the Jets.

More passes would surely please Jarvis Landry, who had two catches for five yards last week after collecting 34 for 350 with two touchdowns over the previous four.

Landry will be looking to make a lasting impression on national television as he gets to compete opposite his close friend Odell Beckham Jr. for the first time.

The former LSU teammates are known for acrobatic, one-handed catches, and Beckham has 36 overall for 630 yards and six touchdowns in the last five games.

"This game has been marked on the schedule for a long time," Beckham said. "It finally being here is so surreal."

The Giants have never lost in three visits to Miami.

[StarDust Bum]

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GOM

MONDAY, DECEMBER 14

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYG at MIA 08:30 PM

MIA -1.0 BLOW OUT

U 47.0 DOUBLE PLAY