The Bum's National Football League Week # 14 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

[StarDust Bum]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14


Washington @ Chicago

Game 113-114
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
128.798
Chicago
133.829
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-3); Over

Detroit @ St. Louis

Game 115-116
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
131.974
St. Louis
125.989
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 6
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
by 1
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+1); Over

San Diego @ Kansas City

Game 117-118
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
125.264
Kansas City
146.266
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 21
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 10
45 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-10); Under

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Game 119-120
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
125.015
Tampa Bay
132.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 8
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-3 1/2); Under

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville

Game 121-122
December 13, 2015 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
130.003
Jacksonville
126.143
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 4
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
N/A

Tennessee @ NY Jets

Game 123-124
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
124.450
NY Jets
134.806
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Jets
by 10 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(-7); Over

New England @ Houston

Game 125-126
December 13, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
140.943
Houston
134.913
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 6
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-3); Over

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati

Game 105-106
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
138.369
Cincinnati
144.418
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 6
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
50
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-3); Under

Oakland @ Denver

Game 127-128
December 13, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
128.492
Denver
140.343
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 12
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-7); Over

Buffalo @ Philadelphia

Game 107-108
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
135.897
Philadelphia
131.738
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 1
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-1); Over

Dallas @ Green Bay

Game 129-130
December 13, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
131.912
Green Bay
137.532
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 5 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 7 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+7 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Carolina

Game 109-110
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
126.513
Carolina
143.102
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 16 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 7 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-7 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Baltimore

Game 131-132
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
141.027
Baltimore
129.646
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 11 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
N/A

San Francisco @ Cleveland

Game 111-112
December 13, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
129.954
Cleveland
121.955
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 8
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 2
41
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+2); Under



NY Giants @ Miami

Game 133-134
December 14, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
127.456
Miami
130.791
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 3 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Giants
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+1 1/2); Under

[StarDust Bum]

TNF - Vikings at Cardinals
December 10, 2015


Overshadowed by Seattle, Green Bay and even Philadelphia when the season began, Arizona and Minnesota enter Thursday night’s blockbuster in the hunt for the NFC’s No. 2 seed. The Cardinals (10-2) reside there now, but the Vikings (8-4), currently No. 5, have an opportunity to finish strong and claim the bye that comes with the slot directly behind the league’s lone unbeaten, Carolina.

All eyes are already on the upcoming playoffs that kick off this time next month. Those who aren’t in are scheming on how to get there. Those who have their spot all but secured, as these two appear to, hope to carve out the easiest possible road. Watching the postseason’s opening weekend from home as others are eliminated would certainly simplify things, which makes this Thursday-nighter one of the most important games we’ll see the rest of the regular season, much less this week.

Because both the Steelers and Texans would lose tie-breakers and find themselves on the outside looking in if the postseason began today, this is the only matchup we’ll see in Week 14 between teams currently entrenched in playoff spots.

Sporting a 4-1 mark at home thus far, Arizona has been made a 8.5-point favorite at most shops after opening at -7. Why so steep? Beyond momentum and health concerns, the setting itself may be a problem. Although the Vikings come in 4-2 on the road, having won its last four games outside Minnesota. Of their victims, Detroit, Chicago, Oakland and Atlanta, only the slumping Falcons are at .500. The Vikings are also 0-2 in night games under second-year coach Mike Zimmer, outscored by a combined margin of 62-13 in a Thursday night loss at Green Bay last season and this season’s opening Monday night setback in San Francisco.

Making this challenge all the more daunting is that neither side of the ball is playing as well, coming off a 38-7 home loss to Seattle that was the Vikings’ worst of the season. Adrian Peterson, the NFL’s leading rusher, is clamoring for more carries after a season-low eight for 18 carries against the Seahawks. He spouted off about Zimmer and his staff being outcoached and wants the football against an Arizona defense that surrenders an average of just 89.0 rushing yards per game, good for fourth-lowest in the league. In Peterson’s defense, Minnesota hasn’t lost a game in which he receives at least 19 carries. The four times he’s gotten the ball handed to him less than 19 times, the Vikings are 0-4.

Second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater is certainly best-suited to be more of a game manager at this point in his development, but will be challenged to beat teams who feel their best course of action is to stack the box to try and corral Peterson, leaving Vikes receivers to one-on-one matchups. Seattle took advantage, and afterward, speedy linebacker Bruce Irvin opined that while Bridgewater is “going to do some big things in this league,” the Seahawks defense had him “scared.”

Bridgewater threw for a season-low 118 yards against Seattle, who pestered him into an interception and also coaxed a career-low averaged of 4.2 yards per pass out of him. Although he lost consecutive starts on three occasions as a rookie, he’s yet to suffer back-to-back setbacks this season and will attempt to rebound here. He’s had productive road games against solid defenses in Denver and Detroit already this season, but hasn’t had much chemistry with his receivers in recent weeks.

The Cardinals, who know division rival Seattle’s defensive tendencies inside and out, undoubtedly picked up on a number of coverage schemes that could come in handy for them after being so effective last week. Arizona’s ‘no fly zone’ secondary helps the team rank third in the NFL with 16 interceptions. Starting corner Jerraud Powers will miss his second consecutive game with a calf injury, but Justin Bethel held up well last week in his place. No. 1 CB Patrick Peterson is among the best at his position, safety Tyrann Mathieu was the NFC Defensive Player of the Month in November and moneybacker Deone Bucannon has been impressive in a hybrid role. Safety Rashad Johnson, who has a team-best five interceptions, has been upgraded to probable and practiced fully on Wednesday, rebounding from an ankle injury.

Although DE Frostee Rucker (ankle) will miss another game, the Cardinals defense is as healthy as it has been in weeks with DT Cory Redding due back from his own ankle injury. The same can’t be said about the Vikings, whose defense ranks among the best in the NFL but is currently a shell of its usual self.

Standout nose tackle Linval Joseph, a key run stuffer, will miss his second consecutive game with a foot injury. Harrison Smith, one of the league’s top safeties and the team’s leading tackler when he originally got hurt, returned against Seattle after a nagging knee injury and almost immediately injured his hamstring. LB Anthony Barr, the ninth overall pick in 2014 who currently ranks second with 61 tackles, suffered a groin injury early against Seattle and isn’t healthy enough to play. Sack leader Everson Griffen (hip) isn’t 100 percent.

According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, promising Sharrif Floyd should get a second consecutive start Joseph, with backup Tom Johnson starting at Floyd's customary spot, but the Vikings didn't have a single safety healthy enough to practice on Monday. Antone Exum, who started against the Falcons two weeks ago and was one of the keys to victory, went on IR on Tuesday due to multiple injuries. Andrew Sendejo, who ranks fifth on the Vikings in tackles, is also out with a knee injury. Another key safety, Robert Blanton (knee) is questionable to play and would really put the team in a major bind if absent.

"This is the NFL. Guys get banged up all the time," Zimmer said earlier this week. "We're not the only team that has guys hurt. So we line up and go play."

The problem is they’re lining up against an offense that leads the NFL in scoring (31.8) and yardage, currently the only team to rack up over 5,000. Carson Palmer’s 29 touchdown passes rank second in the league to only Tom Brady (31), and he’s got a variety of weapons available to him at receiver and tight end. His options aren’t as vast at running back since Chris Johnson (knee) is out the rest of the way unless Arizona makes the Super Bowl and Andre Ellington has again been ruled out with a nagging toe injury. Rookie David Johnson set personal bests with 22 carries for 99 yards and scored on a catch out of the backfield in last week’s 27-3 win over St. Louis, so head coach Bruce Arians is confident there won’t be much of a drop-off.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 46 on Monday and the early morning has added a hook to the total (46 ½). Minnesota hasn’t played in a game with a total this high all season and VegasInsider.com NFL Totals expert Chris David believes you could argue low or high for this game.

“Arizona owns the best offensive numbers in the league this season and that production has led to an 8-4 ‘over’ mark. However, the Cardinals have gone ‘under’ their last two games and those results have been dictated by a strong defense (8 PPG) and they’ve run the ball 37 and 36 times, which is much higher than their season average of 28.8 attempts per game.”

“Zimmer and the Vikings would prefer this ground-and-pound style and it will be interesting to see if Arians and the Cardinals try to knock heads for the third straight game,” added David. “While ‘Zona has leaned ‘over’ this season, the Vikings have been a great ‘under’ (9-2-1) bet. Minnesota’s offense isn’t explosive and the defense is very solid but if you delve into the numbers further, we could be fooled by this unit. Looking at the Vikings schedule, you could argue that they only played two elite quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson) and they gave up 30 and 38 points. I wouldn’t necessarily put Palmer into this category but he’s having a MVP-type season.”

Even though last week’s Packers-Lions game went ‘over’ on the Rodgers-to-Rodgers Hail Mary, total bettors should note that the ‘under’ had cashed in the seven previous games played on Thursday.

This will be Arizona’s fourth game played under the lights this season and it has seen the ‘over’ go 2-1 in the first three games, which was helped by the Cardinals scoring 26, 39 and 34 points. Game-time temperatures are expected to be mild, so weather won’t be a factor considering the roof at University of Phoenix Stadium closes in inclement weather.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 14
December 10, 2015

THURSDAY, DEC. 10

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
MINNESOTA at ARIZONA (NFL NETWORK, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Vikings have covered five straight on road this season and are 14-4 vs. the number their last 18 on the board since mid 2014. Cardinals surprisingly no covers last three this season at Glendale.
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on team trends.


SUNDAY, DEC. 13
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Steelers 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 vs. line last five vs. Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. But Cincy a remarkable 10-1-1 vs. line in 2015 including a win and cover at Pittsburgh.
Tech Edge: Slight to Bengals, based on recent trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BUFFALO at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eagles just 2-5 vs. spread last seven at Linc. Birds “over” last three and four of last five in 2015, Bills “over” 7-4 last 11. Buffalo has only covered one of last five on road this season.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on recent “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcons no covers last eight this season, Panthers 11-4-1 vs. number last 16 reg.-season games. Falcons “under” 9-2-1 this season, though Panthers “over” 8-3-1 in 2015.
Tech Edge: Panthers, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns winless SU last seven this season and no covers last six. Cleveland also “over” 5-1 as host this season. Niners have covered last two, three of last four, and five of last eight in 2015.
Tech Edge: 49ers and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
WASHINGTON at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Redskins 0-5 SU, 1-4 vs. line away this season, winless SU last nine away and 2-7 vs. spread in those games. Bears 5-2-2 last nine vs. spread in 2015.
Tech Edge: Bears, based on Redskins road woes.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DETROIT at ST. LOUIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions had won and covered three straight before last-second loss to pack. Rams 0-4-1 vs. number last five this season, also “under” 7-1 last 8 in 2015.
Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN DIEGO at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Chargers have covered last three on road this season but still just 6-17 vs. points last 23 on board since early 2014. Chiefs have won and covered six straight in 2015.
Tech Edge: Chiefs, based on recent trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Saints no covers four of last five TY. Saints 10-17-1 last 28 on board since last season. Bucs 4-1 vs. line last five in series, and have covered 3 of last 4 as host this year after dropping 8 of previous ten vs. spread as host.
Tech Edge: Bucs, based on team and series trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Jags “over” 9-4 last 13 since late 2014. Colts had covered five straight in series prior to 16-13 win and non-cover back on Oct. 4. Indy had covered 6 of last 7 TY prior to last week’s loss at Steelers.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
TENNESSE at N.Y. JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans have not covered two in a row since the start of the 2013 season. Titans 3-11-1 vs. spread last 15 away from Nashville.
Tech Edge: Jets, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seahawks now 19-4-1 vs. line in last seven reg.-season games since 2012. Ravens 20-1 vs. line last three this season but 0-7-1 vs. spread last eight at home.
Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
OAKLAND at DENVER (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Broncos have won and covered last eight in series. Raiders “over” 12-3 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Broncos and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at GREEN BAY (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Pack 2-5 vs. line last seven in 2015 and one play away from 1-6 last seven (last-play win vs. Lions last week). All after winning covering first five games this season and 9-1-1 previous 11 vs. line as host. Also no covers last three at Lambeau Field. Dallas just 4-8 vs. spread in 2015.
Tech Edge: Slight to Pack, based on extended trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
NEW ENGLAND at HOUSTON (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Patriots no covers last four this season (0-3-1) but are “over” last 2 and “over” 60-32-1 in reg.-season games since late 2009. Houston 4-1 SU and vs. line last five this season, and Texans “over” 8-4-1 last 13 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Texans and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


MONDAY, DEC. 14
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. GIANTS at MIAMI (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Giants had covered 7 of first 10 this season before dropping last two. G-Men 7-4 “over” last 11 on road. Dolphins 1-5 vs. line last six this season, 1-6 last seven vs. spread at Sun Life Stadium.
Tech Edge: Giants and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Vikings look to upset Cardinals
December 8, 2015


MINESOTA VIKINGS (8-4) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (10-2)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Arizona -7.5, Total: 45.5

The Vikings are coming off of an embarrassing 38-7 loss at home against the Seahawks and the team has now lost two of its past three games, with both being at home.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, demolished the Rams 27-3 as 3.5-point road favorites. Arizona has won five straight games SU and three of the past five games ATS. These teams have met just 13 times since 1992 and the Vikings are 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in the series.

They have not played one another since Oct. 21, 2012, when the Vikings beat the Cardinals 21-14 as 6.5-point home favorites.

One thing favoring Minnesota in this game is the fact that the team is 10-0 ATS versus teams averaging 260 or more passing yard per game after eight or more games over the past three seasons. Arizona, however, is 15-6 ATS versus conference opponents over the past two seasons.

DT Linval Joseph (Foot) is questionable for the Vikings in this game and RB Andre Ellington (Toe), CB Jerraud Powers (Calf) and DE Frostee Rucker (Ankle) are questionable for the Cardinals, who are already without LB LaMarr Woodley (Chest) for the season and RB Chris Johnson (Leg) indefinitely.

The Vikings are an old school football team that is winning games with defense and a potent rushing game. Minnesota is allowing just 19.3 PPG (t-4th in NFL) and is rushing for 136.8 YPG (5th in NFL).

Adrian Peterson is the reason for the Vikings’ daunted rushing attack, racking up 1,182 yards with eight touchdowns on the ground this season. He did, however, rush for just 18 yards on eight carries in a loss to the Seahawks last week. Peterson was not happy with the amount of carries he received, so it is very likely that the Vikings pound away against the Cardinals on Thursday.

One guy who must be better in Thursday’s game is Teddy Bridgewater. He has thrown for just 2,398 yards with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season and had just 118 yards with no touchdowns and one pick against the Seahawks a week ago.

The team fell behind early and needed him to throw the ball more effectively and that was not the case. The Vikings cannot keep playing at a high level without some more competent quarterbacking.

The Cardinals have been one of the most dominant teams in the NFL on both sides of the ball, putting up 31.8 PPG (1st in NFL) and allowing just 19.3 PPG (t-4th in NFL). The guy that is in charge of operating the NFL’s best offense is Carson Palmer.

He has put himself in the discussion for MVP this season, throwing for 3,693 yards with 29 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. He threw for 356 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in a win over the Rams last week and will be looking to stay mistake-free against the Vikings on Thursday.

One guy that could help him is rookie David Johnson, who took over as the starting running back against the Rams. Johnson has needed to play more due to injuries, but he certainly delivered last Sunday. Johnson rushed for 99 yards on 22 carries in that game and also caught two passes for 21 yards and a touchdown. If he can continue to perform at a high level then this offense will not be missing Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington very much.

[StarDust Bum]

Public Fades - Week 14
December 10, 2015

The final quarter of the NFL regular season is here as only one team has clinched a playoff berth so far. The Panthers remain unbeaten at 12-0, while three teams currently sit at the top of the AFC tied at 10-2 (New England, Denver, and Cincinnati). Two clubs that got off subpar starts are back on the winning track as both Seattle and Kansas City are public favorites in Week 13.

In last week’s edition of "Public Fades," we made the case for backing the Saints and Eagles. Philadelphia won outright as 9 ½-point underdogs at New England, while New Orleans covered in a 41-38 defeat as six-point home ‘dogs to Carolina. This week, we’ll take a look at supporting two teams that aren’t headed to the postseason.

Chargers at Chiefs (-10, 45) – 1:00 PM EST

The last time these AFC West rivals got together in late November, Kansas City wiped out San Diego, 33-3 as three-point favorites at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chiefs’ defense limited the Chargers to just 201 yards of offense, while Philip Rivers threw for a season-low 178 yards. Andy Reid’s squad is riding a six-game winning streak following a 1-5 start to sit in a prime position for an AFC Wild Card spot.

Kansas City’s defense has stepped up of late, limiting seven of its past eight opponents to 20 points or less. The Chiefs pulled off their third road win in four weeks over a division foe last Sunday by taking care of the Raiders, 34-20 as three-point favorites.

Lightning hasn’t struck for the Chargers this season, who stumble into Arrowhead Stadium with a dreadful 3-9 record. San Diego has failed to score a touchdown in two of the last three weeks in double-digit losses to Denver and Kansas City, while the Bolts’ last two victories have come against Cleveland and Jacksonville since early October. The only thing the Chargers have going for them is three consecutive covers as a road underdog, which includes losses of seven points or less at Green Bay and Baltimore.

So why back the Chargers?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says in spite of the Chargers’ recent struggles, their air attack can give Kansas City problems, “San Diego is still the fourth-most productive passing team in the NFL, while the Chiefs rank 26th in the league in passing yards per game and the pass defense numbers are remarkably similar despite the contrasting results. Kansas City has won and covered in six straight games to move into a playoff position in the AFC, but the prices to back the Chiefs will now climb.”

Even though the Chiefs have been on fire of late, Nelson notes the oddmakers may have over-inflated the line on the Chiefs, “Kansas City was only a three-point favorite in San Diego in Week 11 and only twice since 2003 have the Chiefs been a double-digit favorite. Despite the issues this season the Chargers aren’t likely to mail it in vs. a division rival and San Diego is on a 35-15-3 ATS run as a road underdog since 2004 including covering in each of the last three instances this season.”

NFL expert Vince Akins mentions an interesting stat regarding teams that win without putting up many yards, “Kansas City defeated Oakland on the road last week, 34-20. That margin looks great on the scoreboard, but there is some reason for concern from how that game played out. Kansas City put up 34 points but did so with just 232 yards of total offense. Oakland meanwhile, put up 361 yards of offense. A big win where a team was significantly outgained is cause for concern. Teams that won by more than seven points last game while being outgained by at least 100 yards have covered just 43.6% of the time next game since 1989.”

Seahawks (-9 ½, 42) at Ravens – 1:00 PM EST

Seattle has turned things around since a 2-4 start by winning five of its last six games. The Seahawks are in the mix for a playoff berth in the NFC, looking to make its third consecutive Super Bowl. Pete Carroll’s club won its third straight road game in last Sunday’s 38-7 rout of the Vikings as short favorites, as the Seattle defense limited Minnesota to 125 yards of total offense. However, the Seahawks have struggled in the second contest of consecutive road games since 2013, posting a 2-5 ATS record.

It’s been a forgettable season for John Harbaugh’s Ravens, capped off by the loss of quarterback Joe Flacco three weeks ago to a season-ending knee injury. In spite of Baltimore’s 4-8 record, the Ravens have yet to play a game decided by double-digits. The Ravens have cashed the last two weeks as an underdog with Matt Schaub under center, including last Sunday’s 15-13 defeat at Miami as 3 ½-point ‘dogs.

So why back the Ravens?

Nelson points out that Baltimore’s offense has held its own even without Flacco, “With Schaub at quarterback the past two weeks, the Ravens have had decent production posting an average of 355 yards per game and 19 first downs per game. Javorius Allen has also provided a solid threat in the backfield with 118 rushing yards on 29 carries while also totaling 136 receiving yards on 16 catches. The Seattle defense has also had inconsistent performances this season, allowing 27 or more points in half of the team’s games and a great performance last week in Minnesota it seems unlikely that the team will be as sharp in a second straight road game against a much less threatening opponent.”

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Top Action
December 10, 2015


DALLAS COWBOYS (4-8) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-4)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -7.5, Total: 43

The latest chapter in a classic, old-school rivalry will be written on Sunday when Dallas travels to Lambeau Field for a date with Green Bay.

The Cowboys (4-8 SU and ATS) pulled out a 19-16 victory over Washington on Monday Night Football, in an otherwise unimpressive offensive performance, on Dan Bailey’s 54 yard field goal with less than 10 seconds left in regulation. Dallas pulled within one game of the Eagles/Giants/Redkins in the NFC East, despite a -2 turnover differential, going 1-for-9 on 3rd downs, and maintaining possession of the ball for just 45% of the game. The Cowboys’ rushing attack also managed just 31 yards, their fewest in a game this season.

Green Bay (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) pulled off one of the great endings in NFL history on Thursday night in a 27-23 win over Detroit, with Aaron Rodgers heaving a walk-off, 61-yard hail mary to Richard Rodgers for the win. The Packers, who trailed 17-0 at halftime, and 20-0 in the 3rd quarter, were given an extra play with no time left after a defensive face mask penalty was called against the Lions on what would have been the last play of the game. The Packers avoided what would have been their 5th loss in six weeks SU and ATS.

Trends for this game are mixed, with Dallas holding an advantage on the head-to-head history side, with Green Bay holding the advantage in quarterback play and coaching history. The Cowboys are 10-6 SU and ATS against the Packers since 1992, though Green Bay has won five of six at home SU and four of those six ATS. Since the start of the 2012 season, Aaron Rodgers is 32-23 ATS, while Matt Cassel is just 12-15. Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy is 96-67 ATS in his career, including a 25-14 mark in December, while Jason Garrett is just 40-45 ATS in his career, including an 11-11 mark in December.

Dallas’ offense has struggled to establish itself this season in the wake of long-term injuries to QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant, averaging just 330.2 total YPG (27th in NFL), and 216.4 passing YPG (28th in the league). While the offense has struggled, the defense has thrived, allowing just 326.5 YPG, 222.4 of those by way of the pass (T-5th and 5th in NFL, respectively). The Cowboys do, however, have Dez Bryant back and he made some big time catches to help this team beat Washington a week ago. He’ll look to cause some mayhem in the Packers secondary in this one. Matt Cassel will just need to avoid mistakes and give Bryant a chance to come down with some throws.

Aaron Rodgers’ 2015 campaign has continued to look vastly different than Aaron Rodger’s campaigns of seasons past. Against the Lions, Rodgers threw for less than 250 yards for the 3rd straight game, and 9th time overall this season; his 246.3 passing YPG is more than 25 YPG less than his average last season. Rodgers is currently on pace to set new career lows for completion percentage, yards per attempt, and yards per completion over a season in which he was the full-time starter. He will need to have a short memory and turn in a solid performance against Dallas.

The Packers are in a fight with the Vikings in the division and this is the type of game that Green Bay absolutely must win. If Rodgers doesn’t come through then he will hear plenty of criticism next week.

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Watt breaks hand but will play Sunday
December 10, 2015

HOUSTON (AP) Houston star defensive end J.J. Watt isn't worried about people trying to come after him Sunday to take advantage of his broken left hand.

''Let them try,'' Watt said. ''I mean what? The opposing players come after me every week with every type of thing in the book you can think of. So feel free, go ahead come at me. I'll take advantage of whatever you try to do. It's my job to get to the quarterback. That's what I do. You can try and take advantage of whatever you want to take advantage of.''

Watt broke his left hand in practice on Wednesday, but said he'll play Sunday.

Watt, who leads the NFL with 13 1/2 sacks, had a black cast covering his left hand and wrist on Thursday. But both Watt and coach Bill O'Brien said they don't expect the injury to hamper last year's Defensive Player of the Year.

The Texans (6-6) host the New England Patriots (10-2) on Sunday night.

''People are going to try to make a big deal out of this, but I've played with worse than this before, even this season,'' Watt said. ''This I'm not very worried about. My elbow a couple years back was way more painful. This was painful when it happened, but it's football. In a game of football you're going to play with pain. If you don't play with pain you're probably in the wrong sport.''

Watt wouldn't say exactly how he suffered the injury other than it was in practice playing football. He said he knew as soon as it happened that it was broken. Watt couldn't remember if he'd ever played a game with a broken bone before at any level of football.

He was asked how long he expects to have to wear the cast.

''I don't know how fast bones heal,'' Watt said. ''I listen to the people who do.''

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Murray happy playing for the Eagles
December 10, 2015

PHILADELPHIA (AP) DeMarco Murray says he loves playing for the Philadelphia Eagles and wants to return next year.

Murray has been a bust after leaving Dallas and signing a $40 million, five-year contract with $21 million guaranteed. He played just 14 of 61 offensive snaps in a stunning upset at New England last week, and coach Chip Kelly said the 2014 NFL rushing champion was unhappy with his role.

Murray says he's frustrated with the team's 5-7 record and not his personal stats. He also denied complaining about his playing time to owner Jeffrey Lurie on the plane ride home following the 35-28 win over the Patriots. Murray says he sat next to Lurie by coincidence.

Murray is averaging 3.5 yards per carry with four touchdowns. He has one TD receiving.

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Pats' Gronkowski back on practice field after knee injury
December 10, 2015

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) Rob Gronkowski was back on the practice field Thursday, just 11 days after suffering a knee injury in a loss to the Denver Broncos.

The workout Thursday was not in full pads and there was no indication whether the star tight end will play Sunday night at Houston. Coach Bill Belichick monitored Gronkowski as he jogged before the practice.

There's no timetable for his return after missing four practices. Gronkowski sprained his right knee and also suffered a bone bruise against the Broncos.

Players met with the media before practice. Gronkowski, who normally talks on Thursdays, was not made available.

Gronkowski is second on the Patriots with 57 receptions, trailing only Julian Edelman, who has missed the last three-plus games with a broken foot.

[StarDust Bum]

Bush works on potential case against St. Louis stadium
December 10, 2015

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) San Francisco running back Reggie Bush is still working out details of his potential case against the St. Louis Regional Convention and Sports Complex Authority after he suffered a season-ending knee injury on concrete at the Rams' stadium last month.

Bush says he is still ''strongly considering'' taking legal action.

Bush's left knee injury required surgery and cost him the final eight games in his first year with the 49ers. The Rams have since put down padding to cover the field-long stretch of concrete behind both benches at the Edward Jones Dome that also injured Browns quarterback Josh McCown a week before Bush went down.

The stadium is operated by the St. Louis Regional Convention and Sports Complex Authority.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 10

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at ARI 08:25 PM

ARI -10.0 TRIPLE PLAY

U 46.5 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY NFL INJURY REPORT

ATLANTA FALCONS at CAROLINA PANTHERS

ATLANTA FALCONS

--Out: DT Paul Soliai (calf)

--Probable: S Ricardo Allen (shin), G Chris Chester (shoulder, knee), WR Devin Hester (toe), S Kemal Ishmael (shoulder), WR Julio Jones (knee), TE Tony Moeaki (hamstring), TE Jacob Tamme (shoulder)

CAROLINA PANTHERS

--Doubtful: WR Brenton Bersin (groin), CB Charles Tillman (knee)

--Probable: DE Mario Addison (ankle), DE Jared Allen (not injury related), WR Jerricho Cotchery (not injury related), LB Thomas Davis (not injury related), DT Dwan Edwards (not injury related), WR Ted Ginn (not injury related), S Roman Harper (not injury related), C Ryan Kalil (not injury related), TE Greg Olsen (not injury related), RB Jonathan Stewart (not injury related)


BUFFALO BILLS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

BUFFALO BILLS

--Out: LB Nigel Bradham (ankle), CB Ron Brooks (concussion, neck), CB Stephon Gilmore (shoulder), RB Karlos Williams (shoulder)

--Questionable: G John Miller (ankle)

--Probable: TE Charles Clay (knee), T Seantrel Henderson (illness), WR Chris Hogan (knee), DE Mario Williams (hand)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

--Probable: RB Kenjon Barner (ankle), QB Sam Bradford (left shoulder), TE Zach Ertz (hip), T Lane Johnson (shoulder), DT Bennie Logan (knee), RB Ryan Mathews (concussion, groin), CB Eric Rowe (ankle), DE Cedric Thornton (ankle), S Walter Thurmond (elbow, shoulder)


DALLAS COWBOYS at GREEN BAY PACKERS

DALLAS COWBOYS

--Out: QB Tony Romo (left shoulder)

--Probable: WR Dez Bryant (foot, knee), DE Greg Hardy (shin), S Jeff Heath (shoulder)

GREEN BAY PACKERS

--Doubtful: C Corey Linsley (ankle)

--Questionable: T Bryan Bulaga (ankle), WR Ty Montgomery (ankle), LB Nick Perry (shoulder)

--Probable: T David Bakhtiari (knee), G T.J. Lang (shoulder), LB Clay Matthews (ankle), CB Damarious Randall (hamstring), G Josh Sitton (back)


DETROIT LIONS at ST. LOUIS RAMS

DETROIT LIONS

--Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (hamstring, elbow), WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), LB Travis Lewis (ankle), WR Lance Moore (ankle), T Michael Ola (knee), S Glover Quin (ankle), DT Caraun Reid (ankle), C Travis Swanson (ankle)

ST. LOUIS RAMS

--Out: T Andrew Donnal (knee), DE Robert Quinn (back)

--Doubtful: CB Janoris Jenkins (concussion)

--Probable: DE William Hayes (thigh), P Johnny Hekker (not injury related), K Zach Hocker (right thigh), CB Trumaine Johnson (thigh), QB Case Keenum (concussion), TE Lance Kendricks (concussion), WR Wes Welker (calf), K Greg Zuerlein (right hip)


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

--Out: LB Daniel Adongo (not injury related), T Anthony Castonzo (knee), LB Jerrell Freeman (hamstring, ribs), QB Andrew Luck (abdomen, kidney)

--Doubtful: LB Erik Walden (foot)

--Questionable: S Colt Anderson (ankle), C Khaled Holmes (fibula), LB D'Qwell Jackson (quadricep), CB Gregory Toler (knee)

--Probable: WR Phillip Dorsett (ankle), QB Matt Hasselbeck (neck, back), G Hugh Thornton (elbow), WR Griff Whalen (hamstring)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

--Out: LB Paul Posluszny (hand)

--Questionable: DE Ryan Davis (knee), TE Nic Jacobs (hamstring), WR Bryan Walters (back)

--Probable: S Sergio Brown (hamstring), DE Chris Clemons (not injury related), S Johnathan Cyprien (neck), DT Roy Miller (knee), T Jermey Parnell (knee), LB Dan Skuta (groin), RB T.J. Yeldon (groin)


NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Out: G Jahri Evans (ankle), DT John Jenkins (concussion)

--Probable: T Terron Armstead (knee), CB Delvin Breaux (hamstring), WR Marques Colston (not injury related), WR Brandin Cooks (concussion), CB Brian Dixon (abdomen), LB Dannell Ellerbe (hip), DE Bobby Richardson (hamstring), WR Willie Snead (calf), T Zach Strief (shoulder)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--Out: DE Jacquies Smith (hamstring)

--Doubtful: DE George Johnson (calf)

--Questionable: LB Lavonte David (ankle), DT Gerald McCoy (hand)

--Probable: CB Jude Adjei-Barimah (elbow), LB Bruce Carter (concussion), T Gosder Cherilus (knee), DE William Gholston (concussion), WR Vincent Jackson (knee), G Logan Mankins (not injury related)


OAKLAND RAIDERS at DENVER BRONCOS

OAKLAND RAIDERS

--Out: S Nate Allen (knee), LB Neiron Ball (knee)

--Questionable: DE Shelby Harris (ankle), RB Taiwan Jones (knee)

--Probable: WR Amari Cooper (foot), C Rodney Hudson (ankle), DE Khalil Mack (knee), CB Keith McGill (ankle), LB Korey Toomer (ankle), S Charles Woodson (shoulder)

DENVER BRONCOS

--Out: QB Peyton Manning (foot), LB Danny Trevathan (concussion), S T.J. Ward (ankle)

--Questionable: RB C.J. Anderson (ankle), S Omar Bolden (hamstring), S David Bruton (knee), WR Andre Caldwell (quadricep), TE Vernon Davis (concussion), WR Bennie Fowler (ankle), RB Ronnie Hillman (foot)

--Probable: TE Owen Daniels (knee), T Ryan Harris (knee), G Evan Mathis (ankle), C Matt Paradis (ankle), LB Shane Ray (illness), WR Emmanuel Sanders (ankle, finger), T Michael Schofield (ankle), S Darian Stewart (hamstring), G Louis Vasquez (groin), DE Vance Walker (shoulder), LB DeMarcus Ware (back), DT Sylvester Williams (ankle)


PITTSBURGH STEELERS at CINCINNATI BENGALS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Probable: WR Sammie Coates (illness), CB William Gay (concussion, not injury related), LB James Harrison (not injury related), TE Heath Miller (rib), TE Matt Spaeth (knee), LB Sean Spence (hamstring), LS Greg Warren (not injury related)

CINCINNATI BENGALS

--Doubtful: T Jake Fisher (concussion), CB Adam Jones (foot)

--Questionable: WR Mario Alford (not injury related), CB Leon Hall (back), S George Iloka (groin)

--Probable: G Clint Boling (neck), TE Tyler Eifert (neck), TE Ryan Hewitt (knee), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (knee), CB Josh Shaw (back)


SAN DIEGO CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

--Out: CB Brandon Flowers (knee), WR Dontrelle Inman (neck), WR Steve Johnson (groin), DT Corey Liuget (foot)

--Doubtful: DT Sean Lissemore (shoulder)

--Questionable: G D.J. Fluker (concussion)

--Probable: T King Dunlap (ankle), TE Ladarius Green (ankle), T Chris Hairston (abdomen), QB Philip Rivers (foot), CB Steve Williams (concussion)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

--Out: S Husain Abdullah (concussion), DE Mike Devito (concussion, shoulder), LB Justin Houston (knee), WR De'Anthony Thomas (concussion)

--Questionable: G Jeff Allen (ankle)

--Probable: DE Allen Bailey (calf), P Dustin Colquitt (right knee), LB Tamba Hali (knee), TE Travis Kelce (groin), C Mitch Morse (concussion)


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS at CLEVELAND BROWNS

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--Out: RB Carlos Hyde (foot), TE Vance McDonald (concussion), LB Michael Wilhoite (ankle)

--Questionable: CB Tramaine Brock (foot), LB Aaron Lynch (concussion), WR Torrey Smith (back, toe)

--Probable: DT Arik Armstead (shoulder), WR Anquan Boldin (hamstring), G Alex Boone (knee), LB Navorro Bowman (shoulder, finger), DT Quinton Dial (shoulder), RB Kendall Gaskins (hamstring), LB Eli Harold (shoulder), C Marcus Martin (ankle), T Erik Pears (knee), DT Mike Purcell (shoulder), T Joe Staley (knee), S Jaquiski Tartt (ankle), G Andrew Tiller (knee)

CLEVELAND BROWNS

--Out: CB Justin Gilbert (concussion), CB Joe Haden (concussion), WR Andrew Hawkins (concussion)

--Questionable: TE Gary Barnidge (ankle), WR Travis Benjamin (shoulder), WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion), WR Brian Hartline (hip), WR Marlon Moore (ribs)

--Probable: G Cameron Erving (ankle), QB Johnny Manziel (right elbow)


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at BALTIMORE RAVENS

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

--Out: DE Demarcus Dobbs (concussion), RB Marshawn Lynch (abdomen)

--Doubtful: DT Jordan Hill (toe)

--Probable: DE Cliff Avril (not injury related), DE Michael Bennett (not injury related)

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--Out: T Eugene Monroe (shoulder)

--Doubtful: WR Marlon Brown (back), TE Crockett Gillmore (back)

--Questionable: QB Matt Schaub (chest)

--Probable: DE Chris Canty (not injury related), LB Elvis Dumervil (not injury related), LB Daryl Smith (not injury related), CB Jimmy Smith (knee), T Ricky Wagner (ankle), DT Brandon Williams (shoulder), TE Maxx Williams (concussion)


TENNESSEE TITANS at NEW YORK JETS

TENNESSEE TITANS

--Out: LB Yannik Cudjoe-Virgil (knee), DT Mike Martin (knee), LB Derrick Morgan (shoulder), WR Kendall Wright (ribs)

--Questionable: WR Tre McBride (abdomen)

--Probable: TE Anthony Fasano (shoulder), DT Sammie Lee Hill (knee), RB Dexter McCluster (knee)

NEW YORK JETS

--Questionable: CB Marcus Williams (knee)

--Probable: S Dion Bailey (ankle), CB Antonio Cromartie (hip), TE Kellen Davis (hand), WR Eric Decker (knee), QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (left thumb), WR Jeremy Kerley (illness), C Nick Mangold (hand), WR Brandon Marshall (ribs, ankle), LB Calvin Pace (abdomen), S Calvin Pryor (neck), CB Darrelle Revis (concussion)


WASHINGTON REDSKINS at CHICAGO BEARS

WASHINGTON REDSKINS

--Out: S Jeron Johnson (hamstring), LB Perry Riley (foot), RB Chris Thompson (shoulder)

--Questionable: TE Derek Carrier (ankle), DE Jason Hatcher (neck, ankle), WR Andre Roberts (knee), LB Keenan Robinson (shoulder)

--Probable: LB Will Compton (shoulder), CB Quinton Dunbar (finger), CB Deshazor Everett (hamstring), S Dashon Goldson (knee, hamstring, wrist), CB DeAngelo Hall (toe)

CHICAGO BEARS

--Out: WR Marquess Wilson (foot)

--Doubtful: LB Pernell McPhee (knee)

--Questionable: LB Sam Acho (shoulder), CB Bryce Callahan (quadricep), TE Zach Miller (ribs), CB Tracy Porter (ankle), S Antrel Rolle (knee), WR Eddie Royal (knee)

--Probable: LB Shea McClellin (ankle)


NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS at HOUSTON TEXANS (Sunday night)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: WR Julian Edelman (foot)

--Questionable: WR Danny Amendola (knee), TE Scott Chandler (knee), S Patrick Chung (foot), CB Justin Coleman (hand), TE Rob Gronkowski (knee), LB Dont'a Hightower (knee), G Josh Kline (shoulder), WR Matt Slater (stinger)

--Probable: T Marcus Cannon (toe), DE Chandler Jones (abdomen), S Devin McCourty (shoulder), TE Michael Williams (knee)

HOUSTON TEXANS

--Probable: RB Alfred Blue (back), G Brandon Brooks (illness, toe), T Duane Brown (knee), LB Max Bullough (shoulder), LB Jadeveon Clowney (hamstring), DT Christian Covington (knee), WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring), CB Kareem Jackson (ankle), CB Charles James (calf), C Ben Jones (hip), CB Johnathan Joseph (knee), LB Whitney Mercilus (back), T Derek Newton (elbow, knee), RB Chris Polk (knee), WR Cecil Shorts (hamstring), DE J.J. Watt (groin, hand)

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 14
December 12, 2015

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Through 13 weeks of the season, the Top 5 Consensus Picks have gone 35-28-2 (55%) in the SuperContest.


Week 14

1) Seattle (962)

2) New England (523)

3) Detroit (517)

4) N.Y. Giants (447)

5) Buffalo (386)



SUPERCONTEST WEEK 14 MATCHUPS & ODDS

Away Team Selections Home Team Selections

Minnesota (+8.5) 79 Arizona (-8.5) 143

Pittsburgh (+2.5) 377 Cincinnati (-2.5) 335

Buffalo (-1) 386 Philadelphia (+1) 217

Atlanta (+7.5) 231 Carolina (-7.5) 268

San Francisco (+1.5) 251 Cleveland (-1.5) 205

Washington (+3) 113 Chicago (-3) 320

Detroit (PK) 517 St. Louis (PK) 116

San Diego (+10) 201 Kansas City (-10) 162

New Orleans (+4) 148 Tampa Bay (-4) 294

Indianapolis (PK) 150 Jacksonville (PK) 216

Tennessee (+7) 162 N.Y. Jets (-7) 159

New England (-3) 532 Houston (+3) 152

Oakland (+7) 325 Denver (-7) 162

Dallas (+7) 189 Green Bay (-7) 241

Seattle (-6.5) 962 Baltimore (+6.5) 55

N.Y. Giants (-1) 447 Miami (+1) 110

[StarDust Bum]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 14
December 11, 2015

The Chiefs have won and covered six straight games which is normally a sign that bettors will be jumping all over whatever spread is offered on its next game, but that’s not necessarily the case this week as the Chiefs are 10.5-point home favorites over the Chargers.

South Point sports book director Bert Osborne says enthusiasm for the Chiefs has slowed at his books this week for a couple of reasons.

“No matter how good a team is doing, when you put double digits on the board, it scares people off the game, or at least with the favorite. Bettors just don’t want to include double-digit favorites on their eight-team parlays.

“We’re also seeing business slow as usual at this time of year because of the holiday season. Maybe if this same situation with Kansas City were to occur last month, it would be a different story, but the betting public is usually cautious about laying double-digits.

This is the first week with no big college football games which will make Friday night and Saturday morning sports book traffic come to a crawl compared to the last 15 weeks. Couple that with bettors readying themselves for holiday spending, they’re being a bit frugal at the bet windows.

“We’ve been so jammed with the NFR (National Finals Rodeo) in town that we’re not getting our regular betting crowd, and then we’ve only got one college game Saturday (Army-Navy), so I don’t expect to see too much action on any of these (NFL) games until Saturday night and Sunday morning.”

When Osborne was running through his betting screen that shows all the action for each game, it was almost the same story for all 15 games with nearly a 50 percent drop off on parlay action across the board from a normal NFL week through Friday.

The areas Osborne was showing similar action to from previous weeks was straight bets and teasers.

“We’ve got a lot of live teasers leftover from the Cardinals on Thursday night tied to Carolina and Denver, and then to a lesser degree with Green Bay and Pittsburgh.”

Osborne has seen sharp action this week on the Raiders +7.5 and +7 and the Redskins at +3.5. His biggest parlay games of the week have been on the Panthers, Lions and Patriots.

Now back to this Chargers-Chiefs game.

If you would have had the foresight back in April that the Chargers would be on a 1-7 run heading into its Week 14 contest at Kansas City, you might have easily laid the Chiefs -2 at CG Technology sports books when they offered spreads on every game for the first 16 weeks.

Fast forward to last Wednesday when the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posted their early Week 14 NFL lines, while Kansas City was in the midst of a 5-0 win streak (5-0 ATS), and opened the Chiefs at -8.5. On Sunday night, following the Chargers 17-3 home loss to Denver and the Chiefs winning its sixth straight (6-0 ATS), Kansas City was reopened at -10.5 and on Friday morning they were bet up to -11 at the Westgate.

The point spread on the board is always the great equalizer, but when you see that San Diego could cover only once in its last 11 games against AFC West teams, it shows that the entire division they play against twice a year isn’t fooled one bit by any of their offensive or defensive schemes. Kansas City has also covered four straight against the Chargers. Still, that’s a big number. Most are saying, “I don’t want to lay it, but I certainly don’t want to take it, either.”

Here’s a look at all the early Week 14 lines offered at the Westgate last Wednesday following by where the number has moved through Friday based on Week 13 results, market adjustments and actual cash taken.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: No early line due to Ben Roethlisberger injury status. CIN opened 3-flat and PITT money has pushed it to CIN -3 (EV). The Wynn is showing CIN -2.5. CIN, the best cover team in the league at 10-1-1 ATS, looks for the season sweep while PITT looks to win its fourth in five games.

Buffalo at Philadelphia: BUF opened -1 and now PHIL is -1 with several other books showing PK. After the impressive PHIL win at NE last week, and the NFC East dangling up for grabs, does this mean PHIL is back to being who we thought they were? Or is their identity really a Jekyll and Hyde team that can beat anyone while also looking bad allowing 45-points a game like the did the two previous games before upsetting NE.

Atlanta at Carolina: CAR opened -8 and its still sits there, but there‘s plenty to choose from at other books. MGM books are using -7.5 while CG Technology books are using -9 (-105).

San Francisco at Cleveland: CLEV opened -3 and they‘re now -1.5. The early line was posted with expectations of Austin Davis starting at QB for CLEV and also before SF won its first road game of the season. Johnny Manziel gets the nod for at QB for CLEV.

Washington at Chicago: CHI opened -3.5 and is now -4. Most other books are still at -3.5. Despite the home loss last week, CHI has covered seven of its past nine.

Detroit at St. Louis: STL opened -2 and now DET is -3 (EV), which is quite a shift. Barring the Hail Mary last Thursday, DET would be riding a four game win streak. STL has lost five straight while averaging only 10 ppg and have scored 10 points combined in the last two.

San Diego at Kansas City: KC opened -8.5 and it’s now -11 with MGM books still at -10.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: TB opened -4 and its now -4.5. Most other LV books have it -4 after being -3.5 for most of the week. NO has lost four straight while TB has covered six of its last eight.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: JAC opened -1 and it‘s now a pick ‘em.

Tennessee at NY Jets: NYJ opened -7.5 and it‘s now -7 (-120).

New England at Houston: NE opened -3.5 and it‘s now -3.5 (EV). HOU just had its four game win streak snapped and NE has lost two straight after starting 10-0. Could we really see three straight losses by a Belichick coached NE squad?

Oakland at Denver: DEN opened -6.5 and its now -7 (EV). Most LV books have it 7-flat. DEN has won the last eight meetings against OAK (7-0-1 ATS).

Dallas at Green Bay: GB opened -9 and its now -6.5. Other LV books have it -7 (EV). The MNF win at WASH, its first win without Tony Romo, gave DAL a little more creditability. GB has lost its last two at home failed to cover the number its past three at home.

Seattle at Baltimore: SEA opened -4.5 and its now -12. Yes, that‘s not a typo. So what happened? The early line was set with expectations of Matt Schaub starting for BALT. With Jimmy Clausen now expected to start, SEA was re-opened Thursday at -10 and it ran all the way to -12 on Friday morning. SEA has won five of its last six while BALT has covered its last two. Is Schaub really worth 7.5-points more than Clausen? To take it a step further, Joe Flacco is worth 4-points more than Schaub. In April, CG Tech books had SEA a 1-point favorite for this game. It all adds up, except for Schaub being 7.5-points better than Clausen.

NY Giants at Miami: Opened pick ’em and now NYG is -1.5 with a high of -2 at CG tech books.

WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERBOOK

NFL WEEK 15 - EARLY LINES

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2015
BUCS
RAMS -1

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2015
JETS -3 EVEN
COWBOYS

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 20, 2015
BEARS
VIKINGS -4

FALCONS PK
JAGUARS

TEXANS
COLTS OFF

CHIEFS -5
RAVENS

BILLS -1
REDSKINS

TITANS
PATRIOTS -10

CARDINALS -3.5
EAGLES

PANTHERS -3.5
GIANTS

BROWNS
SEAHAWKS -13.5

PACKERS -3 -120
RAIDERS

DOLPHINS
CHARGERS -1

BRONCOS
STEELERS -4.5

BENGALS -7
49ERS

MONDAY, DECEMBER 21, 2015
LIONS
SAINTS -1.5

[StarDust Bum]

Total Talk - Week 14
December 12, 2015

The ‘over’ produced a 9-7 mark last week and a few of those tickets were helped with some late explosions. For some, the “bad beats” began on Thursday as Green Bay converted a Hail Mary touchdown to not only win and cover but cash ‘over’ tickets as well.

On Sunday, the Eagles and Patriots were actually scoreless after the first quarter but three defensive and special team scores pushed Philadelphia to a 35-28 win and ‘over’ ticket. Sticking with non-offensive scores, the Chiefs put up two late touchdowns with help from the defense to rally past the Raiders for a 34-20 win and ‘over’ winner.

The last punch in the stomach or celebration came in the SNF game as Pittsburgh decided to have Antonio Brown return a punt late in the fourth quarter despite holding a 38-10 lead. Brown being Brown, made a couple moves and scored on the return and the ‘over’ (50 ½) connected.

Through 13 weeks, the ‘over’ has gone 96-92-4.

Divisional Battles

The ‘under’ produced a 5-4 mark last weekend in the nine divisional games. Sunday’s card offers up six matchups and they all take place in the afternoon.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: This total opened 49 ½ and has been juiced up to 50 ½ after the public saw Big Ben and company put up crazy offensive numbers the last two weeks in national televised games versus the Seahawks and Colts. The Bengals are much better defensively than those teams, evidenced by their 16-10 win over Pittsburgh and Roethlisberger in Week 8. The Cincy defense has had one hiccup this season, which came in a 34-31 loss at Arizona in Week 11. Outside of that result, the Bengals are allowing 14.7 PPG. It will be a great test for both clubs but make a note that the ‘under’ is 7-3 in the previous 10 and they’ve never played to a total this high.

Atlanta at Carolina: These teams will meet twice in the next three weeks and the last four in this series has gone ‘under’ the number. Atlanta has watched the ‘under’ hit in eight straight games and 10 of 12 this season. The offense, in particular QB Matt Ryan, isn’t clicking and they’ve been held to 21 or less in seven of their last eight. Carolina’s offense continues to turn heads this season (31.1 PPG) and those efforts have helped the ‘over’ go 8-3-1.

San Diego at Kansas City: The ‘under’ has cashed in the last three encounters between this pair, which includes the Chiefs’ 33-3 road win on Nov. 22 over the Chargers. Kansas City isn’t necessarily known for offense but the team is ranked fifth in scoring (26.8 PPG) this season and San Diego is ranked 29th in scoring defense (27 PPG).

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: It’s not rare to see a total in the fifties for the Saints but the Buccaneers appear to be out of their “so-called” total zone for this one. The Saints defense (31.7 PPG, 425 YPG) is the worst in the league and you’d expect Tampa Bay to put up some points but they’ve performed better offensively on the road this season. These teams played in Week 2 and Tampa Bay earned a 26-19 road win but New Orleans left plenty of points off the board. Make a note that the last three times these teams have seen 50-plus totals, the ‘under’ cashed in all three.

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The ‘under’ has gone 8-2 in the last 10 in this series and that includes the Colts’ 16-13 victory over the Jaguars on Oct. 4 of this season. Seems like a high total (46) based on those tendencies but the Colts (25.4 PPG) and Jaguars (28.4 PPG) have looked suspect on defense.

Oakland at Denver: The Broncos stifled the Raiders 16-10 on the road in Week 5 and this week’s total is hovering around the same neighborhood (43 ½). Brock Oswelier will get his fourth start and the ‘under’ is 2-1 in his games, could be 3-0 if the SNF affair versus the Patriots doesn’t get a late surge. The Raiders’ pass defense is beatable but will Gary Kubiak loosen up the reins on Brock? With a healthy Peyton Manning at QB, Denver scored 37, 37 and 47 in its last three at home versus Oakland.

Still Trending ‘Under’

Non-conference games continue to cash to the low side this season. After 13 weeks, the ‘under’ has produced a 38-18-1 (67%) mark and we have four more AFC-NFC matchups on tap this week and a couple of them look untouchable based on the guys under center.

Buffalo at Philadelphia: This total opened 47 and it seems fair considering Chip Kelly’s team has watched the ‘over’ cash in three straight and four of five. Make a note that the offense hasn’t done much lately, putting up 20, 17, 14 and even 21 of the 35 last week came from Philadelphia’s other units. When QB Tyrod Taylor targets WR Sammy Watkins, the Bills look somewhat respectable offensively. This will be the first of three straight against NFC East foes for Buffalo. Philadelphia is 3-2 to the ‘under’ at home.

San Francisco at Cleveland: This total is 41 ½ and it’s a tough game to handicap and meaningless. The 49ers defense (32.7 PPG) has been horrible on the road but Cleveland’s offense has absolutely no talent. After starting 6-0 to the ‘over’ the Browns are 4-2 to the ‘under’ in their last six.

Seattle at Baltimore: Another hard contest to analyze and based on the odds, the books are calling for a 26-14 victory by Seattle or something close to that. Tough game for Seattle to go back to the East Coast after just playing at Minnesota. The ‘Hawks offense is averaging 34.5 PPG in their last four, all ‘over’ winners. I think Seattle has the ability to get in that neighborhood again but I’m leaning to a letdown on Sunday and don’t expect the Ravens to do much with their backup QBs.

N.Y. Giants at Miami: (See Below)

Under the Lights

Heading into this weekend, the ‘under’ has gone 25-15 (63%) and that includes this past Thursday’s result between Arizona and Minnesota that probably should’ve went ‘over’ but the Vikings fumbled at an inopportune time.

New England at Houston: The total on this game is 45 and based on the offensive injuries across the board for the Patriots, it’s hard to expect much from New England in this game especially against a very good defense. Houston gave up 30 last week to Buffalo but only 35 in its four previous games. At home the defensive unit has been very sound, only allowing 15.3 PPG. You have to believe that head coach Bill O’Brien should have the Texans very prepared against a team he knows all too well. With Houston needing a win to keep its playoff hopes alive and New England looking to avoid three straight losses, I would expect a very tight game.

N.Y. Giants at Miami: Both of these clubs have been major disappointments this season, especially at the QB position and yet you’re still seeing high totals posted (46 ½). The Giants have only managed 34 points the last two weeks and the Dolphins have haven’t scored more than 20 points in a game since Week 6 when they dropped 44 on Houston. In three other games this season versus the NFC East, Miami has scored 17, 20 and 14 points while the G-Men have averaged 23.3 PPG versus the AFC East this season. It wouldn't be surprising to see both score 20-plus but I'm staying away.

Fearless Predictions

We caught a split last week ($20) and could’ve pulled off the sweep but a pair of overpaid Ryan’s (Matt & Tannehill) put forth poor efforts – once again. The deficit is just under six bills ($580) and we have four weeks left to get into the black. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: Detroit-St. Louis 40 ½

Best Under: Atlanta-Carolina 46 ½

Best Team Total: Over 23 ½ Philadelphia

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 31 ½ Detroit-St. Louis
Under 50 Seattle-Baltimore
Under 54 ½ New England-Houston