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No. 1 Clemson not favored in Orange Bowl as playoff field set

College football’s Football Bowl Subdivision now has the four teams in place for its national semifinal playoff games. And while Clemson is the No. 1 seed, the Tigers aren’t the biggest favorite. In fact, they’re not favored at all.

Rather, it appears oddsmakers and bettors believe No. 2 seed Alabama is the best team in the championship field. Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, installed the Crimson Tide as 8.5-point chalk against No. 3 seed Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium on New Year’s Eve.

Cotton Bowl - Michigan State vs. Alabama (-8.5)

Alabama (12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS), the SEC champion, has won 10 in a row SU since a stunning home loss to Mississippi. That includes Saturday’s 29-15 victory over Florida in the conference title game, though the Tide failed to cash as a hefty 16.5-point fave.

“The Alabama offense hasn’t lit it up this year, but it has done enough to win football games while covering the spread in six of the 11 games we booked this year (Charleston Southern excluded),” Avello said. “Quarterback Jake Coker isn’t flashy, but he makes the big play when needed and keeps the turnovers to a minimum.

But Avello isn’t dismissing Big Ten champ Michigan State, by any means. The Spartans (12-1 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) upset Ohio State on the road last month, then got a touchdown in the final minute of the Big Ten title game Saturday to edge Iowa 16-13 and get a push as 3-point chalk. Avello thinks Michigan State might like its draw in the Cotton Bowl.

“This is the type of game the Spartans like to play – a low-scoring, cat-and-mouse, who-can-make-the-least-mistakes type of contest,” he said. “Alabama’s rush defense is the best in the country, and Michigan State’s is seventh. I opened the Tide an 8.5 point favorite, so let’s see where the bettors take the number.”

Orange Bowl - Oklahoma (-3) vs. Clemson

The fourth-seeded Sooners got the oddsmakers’ nod of approval in the other New Year’s Eve semifinal, with Avello making them a 3-point favorite against the only undefeated team in the country. There is no Big 12 championship game, so Oklahoma was off this past weekend, but it has made a statement the past several weeks.

After a shocking loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry, the Sooners (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) went on a 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS tear to finish the regular season. Six of those wins were by double digits, and five were flat-out routs, capped by the Bedlam Game at Oklahoma State – a 58-23 beatdown with Oklahoma laying 7.5 points.

Clemson (13-0 SU, 6-7 ATS) hasn’t been quite that impressive on its way to the ACC title, but the Tigers have knocked down everyone the schedule makers have put in front of them. On Saturday, in the conference final, Clemson held off a North Carolina rally for a 45-37 victory to cash as a 6.5-point fave.

“I realize Clemson is the No. 1 seed, but I opened Oklahoma -3,” Avello said, pointing to several factors – including revenge from the 2014 bowl season. “Stronger schedule, more potent offense, program recognition and a 40-6 loss in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year as a 5-point favorite. The Sooners were held to 275 yards of total offense and didn’t score until late in that meaningless bowl game last year. I anticipate a better effort with so much more at stake.”

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Final Four Primer
December 6, 2015

The College Football Playoff Committee had an easy job this year. With Alabama, Clemson and Michigan State taking care of business on Championship Weekend, those conference champions along with Big 12 champ Oklahoma were the obvious choices.

The top-seeded Tigers will take on No. 4 Oklahoma on New Year’s Eve at Sun Life Stadium in Miami at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Clemson (13-0 straight up, 6-7 against the spread) remained unbeaten with a 45-37 win over North Carolina as a five-point favorite at the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte. Deshaun Watson threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns, in addition to rushing for 131 yards and a pair of scores.

Oklahoma will be seeking to avenge a humiliating 40-6 loss to Clemson as a five-point ‘chalk’ at last year’s Russell Athletic Bowl. The Sooners will bring a seven-game winning streak to South Florida. They have cashed tickets at a 6-1 ATS clip during this roll with six of the wins coming by double-digit margins.

OU will playing in the Orange Bowl for a record 19th time. The Sooners are 12-6 in those previous appearances. They won the national title with a 13-2 win over Florida State in January of 2001, but it lost BCS Championship Games to Southern Cal and Florida later in the decade.

Clemson hasn’t won a national title since 1981 under Danny Ford, while Michigan State hasn’t won it all since 1966.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened Oklahoma as a three-point favorite with a total of 65. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS as single-digit favorites this year, including a 58-23 win at Oklahoma St. as 7.5-point ‘chalk’ in their regular-season finale.

Dabo Swinney’s squad hasn’t been an underdog yet this season, but it has won outright as a ‘dog in each of its last three postseason games.

The Westgate opened Alabama as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5 points. The total was adjusted to 49 later Sunday afternoon. The Spartans are +300 on the money line (risk $100 to win $300).

No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Michigan St. will square off at AT&T Field in Arlington on ESPN at 8:30 p.m. Eastern on New Year’s Eve. These schools have only met once in the 2010 Capital One Bowl in Orlando, where the Crimson Tide cruised to a 49-7 victory as an eight-point favorite. Nick Saban’s team is making its second straight playoff appearance after beating Florida 29-15 as a 17-point favorite in Saturday’s SEC Championship at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.

Michigan State rallied past Iowa for a 16-13 win thanks to a late fourth-quarter drive that covered 82 yards in 22 plays. The Spartans have won outright in nine of their last 13 games as underdogs. Most impressive, they have beaten six of their last seven foes that were ranked in the top five of the national rankings.

Alabama is in search of its fourth national title during Saban’s nine-year tenure.

The semifinal winners will collide for all the marbles on Monday, Jan. 11, in Glendale, Arizona.

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Iowa to face Stanford in Rose Bowl
December 6, 2015

PASADENA, Calif. (AP) Iowa and Stanford barely missed out on the College Football Playoff.

The Rose Bowl is a pretty great place to forget your sorrows.

The Hawkeyes (12-1, No. 5 CFP) will face the Cardinal (11-2, No. 6 CFP) on Jan. 1 in the 102nd edition of the Granddaddy of Them All, Rose Bowl officials announced Sunday.

Iowa and Stanford finished in the final two rankings spots outside the four-team playoff, yet they earned coveted spots in the traditional year-end intersectional matchup between the Big Ten and Pac-12 powers.

''If this is the consolation prize, what a deal it is for both of us,'' Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said.

Even though the Hawkeyes lost their unbeaten season and the Big Ten title game to Michigan State on a late touchdown Saturday night, they still held off Ohio State to earn their first trip to Pasadena since Jan. 1, 1991. Ferentz will cap his 17th season at Iowa with his first Rose Bowl appearance as a head coach.

''This news is good medicine, I think, for all of us, just to ease the tough outcome,'' said Ferentz, the offensive line coach on two Rose Bowl teams at Iowa in the 1980s.

While the Hawkeyes hadn't made the Rose Bowl in a generation, Pasadena has become a second home for Stanford coach David Shaw's improbable Bay Area powerhouse.

The Cardinal earned their third Rose Bowl berth in four years by beating Southern California 41-22 in the Pac-12 title game on Saturday night. Stanford beat Wisconsin three years ago to earn its first Rose Bowl victory since the 1971 season, but lost to Michigan State two years ago.

''We too are excited about going back to Pasadena,'' Shaw said. ''The Rose Bowl people have been phenomenal the times that we've gone. That's a rare occurrence nowadays, but we're looking forward to the week, looking forward to a great game.''

Stanford also had hopes of a playoff spot after finishing the season with big wins over Notre Dame and USC, but conference title game victories by Clemson and Alabama consigned the Cardinal to Pasadena.

Although both football programs date to the 19th century, Iowa and Stanford have never faced each other. Shaw and Ferentz have only a passing acquaintance, but both coaches have watched the other's program occasionally through the season.

''I loved what Iowa did during the course of this year as being one of those under-the-radar teams that kept winning ... and finally people started to notice the phenomenal job that was going on,'' Shaw said. ''I love well-coached teams that fight and scrap and eventually get what they deserve.''

Here are some more things to know about the Rose Bowl matchup:

STANFORD SHOWCASE: Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey will cap his incredible season with his first appearance in the Rose Bowl game. The 19-year-old sophomore has gained more yards in a season than anybody in the history of college football, breaking Barry Sanders' record while racking up 461 total yards against the Trojans. He also threw a touchdown pass, caught a touchdown pass and rushed for another score. Shaw called McCaffrey ''the best player in the nation. It's not even a debate.''

TRADITION REIGNS: The Rose Bowl prefers a traditional intersectional matchup between the Big Ten and the Pac-12, but college football's shifting postseason landscape has interrupted that tradition six times in the 21st century. After Florida State's blowout loss to Oregon in last season's CFP matchup at the Rose Bowl, everything is back to normal this winter.

STRENGTH ON STRENGTH: While McCaffrey has spent the season running wild behind Stanford's imposing offensive line, Iowa also has a vaunted running game built around four ball-carriers: Jordan Canzeri, LeShun Daniels Jr., Derrick Mitchell Jr. and Akrum Wadley. Canzeri calls them the ''Four Deadly Horsemen.'' The Hawkeyes ran for at least 100 yards in every game this season.

LONG TIME COMING: Although it took 25 years for Iowa to get back to Pasadena, it's been even longer since the Hawkeyes could celebrate a victory. They haven't won the Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1959, when the Big Ten champions led by halfback Bob Jeter and coach Forest Evashevski beat California and were named national champions by the Football Writers Association of America. Famed coach Hayden Fry never won the Rose Bowl, losing each of his three Big Ten championship teams' trips to Pasadena before Ferentz replaced him in 1999.

FREQUENT VISITORS: The Pac-12 has sent just three different teams to the Rose Bowl in the past 13 years: USC, Oregon and Stanford, which is making its 15th Rose Bowl appearance. The school hadn't made three Rose Bowl trips in four years since 1933-35, when Stanford played in three straight. Iowa is the seventh different Big Ten team to play in Pasadena in the past 13 years, with Wisconsin and Michigan making three appearances apiece.

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FSU settles for Peach Bowl vs. Houston
December 6, 2015

ATLANTA (AP) Florida State has gotten used to playing for national championships.

Jimbo Fisher considers the Peach Bowl a good consolation prize.

After coming up short in the national race, the No. 9 Seminoles learned Sunday they will face up-and-coming Houston in the New Year's Eve bowl at the Georgia Dome.

Their coach said it's quite an accomplishment considering the inexperience of his team, which had to replace many of the stalwarts from last year's squad, which reached the College Football Playoff on the heels of a national championship run in 2013.

''We've had a tremendous season,'' Fisher said. ''This very young football team has grown all year, gotten better and better and better. To get to a New Year's Six bowl is a great honor for these kids. A tremendous accomplishment.''

It's certainly an accomplishment for No. 14 Houston, which earned a spot in a major bowl as the top-ranked team from the Group of Five conferences. The Cougars won the American Athletic Conference on Saturday, beating Temple in the championship game.

''The guys worked really hard over the last 11 or 12 months to get here,'' rookie coach Tom Herman said. ''As rewarding as winning our conference championship was, the knowledge that the reward extends farther into a New Year's Six bowl game is even that much more gratifying.''

Florida State (10-2, No. 9 CFP) won its first six games and was in the national championship mix until a shocking 22-16 loss at Georgia Tech - the Yellow Jackets' only Atlantic Coast Conference win of the season. The Seminoles were beaten by a 78-yard return of a blocked field goal on the final play of the game.

The other loss was a lot more understandable. Fisher's team fell 23-13 at No. 1 Clemson, which went on to capture the ACC title and earn the top seed in this season's playoff, joined by Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma.

''That (Georgia Tech game) was such a tough loss, and a very dynamic way to do it,'' Fisher said. ''We could have pouted, felt sorry for ourselves, or we could learn from it and grow. I think we did. The second half of the season, we played our most complete football, our best football. That's a tribute to our seniors, their leadership, and our young guys for buying into the culture of playing champ football. I'm extremely proud of our guys buying into that.''

Herman, who came to Houston after serving on Urban Meyer's staff at Ohio State, had to persuade his team he could take them to a higher level. The Cougars went 21-17 the last three seasons under Tony Levine, settling for a pair of minor bowl games.

An early win over Louisville helped to win over his skeptical players ''that this staff and this culture and the way we go about our business might actually work.''

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What to watch for when Florida State takes on Houston:

DYNAMIC WARD: The Cougars are led by quarterback Greg Ward Jr., who has rushed for a team-leading 1,047 yards with 19 touchdowns and passed for 2,589 yards, with 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions. It will be intriguing to see how he performs against the best defense he's seen all year.

COOKING UP YARDS: Dalvin Cook is the player who makes the Seminoles go, running for 18 touchdowns and setting a school record with 1,658 yards on the ground. The Cougars have been stout against the run, surrendering 116 yards per game.

SEMINOLES SIGNAL CALLER: The Seminoles will stick with Sean Maguire as their starting quarterback. He took over when transfer Everett Golson went down with a head injury, and played well enough to keep the job. ''Sean is definitely the starter going in,'' Fisher said. ''We have two excellent quarterbacks. We feel good about both guys.''

BIG STAGE: Houston will be playing in its first major postseason game since the 1985 Cotton Bowl. Herman will have to make sure his team doesn't get overwhelmed by the spotlight, especially facing one of the nation's most storied programs.

STEPPING STONE: Both coaches say a victory in this game would be an important step toward getting the 2016 season off to a good start, but a victory would probably mean more to Houston. ''It would energize our fan base, it would energize the city of Houston. If would give us another feather in the cap of what is already turning into a pretty good recruiting class.''

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Ohio State, Notre Dame to meet in Fiesta
December 6, 2015

GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) The Fiesta Bowl has a strong history of producing marquee matchups, highlighted by the double-overtime thriller between Boise State and Oklahoma in 2007.

This year's game has a chance to be the best of the bunch.

Ohio State and Notre Dame, two teams in the College Football Playoff mix until late in the season, will meet at University of Phoenix Stadium on New Year's Day.

It won't be for a national championship, as both teams had hoped, but it's sure to be one of the most anticipated games of the bowl season.

''Two legendary programs; we have a lot of respect for Notre Dame,'' Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said. ''A great bowl game, too.''

Defending national champion Ohio State (11-1) began the season at No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25 and remained there through the first 10 weeks despite inconsistent play from its two talented quarterbacks.

The Buckeyes were in good shape despite being overtaken by Clemson after the initial playoff rankings were released, remaining in the top four until late in the season.

They just picked the wrong time to lose, falling to Michigan State on a last-second field goal in their penultimate game. That dropped Ohio State in the pecking order of one-loss teams behind playoff teams Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma, which all lost earlier in the season.

The Buckeyes still had an outside shot at the playoff heading into the final weekend, but the teams ahead of them all won. Ohio State finished No. 7 in the final CFP rankings, behind fellow one-loss Big Ten teams Michigan State and Iowa.

''This is an exceptional group that came up a few seconds short in a game against a very good team,'' Meyer said.

Notre Dame (10-2) was in strong contention for a playoff spot after winning nine of its first 10 games, its only loss to top-ranked Clemson after failing to convert a game-tying 2-point conversion in the closing seconds.

Beat Stanford on Nov. 28 and the Irish would have had a decent chance at being in the playoff, entering the game No. 6 in the CFP rankings. Instead, they allowed the Cardinal to march down the field for a last-second field goal to end their chances. Notre Dame finished No. 8 in the final CFP rankings.

The late-season letdowns worked out well for the Fiesta Bowl, giving it another must-watch matchup.

''This is an opportunity to play a national championship-caliber of a game, an opponent that is definitely one of the best in the country,'' Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer said.

A few more things to look for in the New Year's Day game:

ELLIOTT RUNS: Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott made headlines for lashing out at Buckeyes coaches after rushing for 33 yards on 12 carries in the loss to Michigan State. He later apologized, but proved to be right about getting the ball the next week, rushing for 214 yards and two touchdowns in a victory over rival Michigan. Elliott was good all season outside of the Michigan State game, tying for second in the FBS with 19 touchdowns and fourth nationally with 1,672 yards rushing. The junior announced he will skip his senior season for the NFL draft, so he'll be motivated to put on a show in his final game.

IRISH INJURIES: Notre Dame came within a couple of last-second plays of a perfect season and did it with a slew of injuries to key players. It started right away, too. Running back Tarean Folston, who led the Irish in rushing last season, tore his right ACL on his third carry of the season against Texas and quarterback Malik Zaire suffered a season-ending ankle injury the next week against Virginia.

QB CAROUSEL: J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones were supposed to give Ohio State one of the best quarterback tandems in the country. It didn't work out that way. Jones led the Buckeyes to last year's national championship after Barrett was hurt and began this season as the starter. He was inconsistent at times and was replaced by Barrett after seven games. Barrett started three of the final four games, missing one while serving a suspension after being arrested on charges of driving while impaired.

IRISH PASSING: Even after losing their starting quarterback, the Irish found a way to come up with big plays in the passing game. Kizer played well in place of Zaire, throwing for 2,600 yards and 19 TDs with nine interceptions, while adding 499 yards and nine TDs rushing. His favorite target was Will Fuller, who caught 56 passes for 1,145 yards and 13 TDs.

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USC, Wisconsin to face off in Holiday Bowl
December 6, 2015

SAN DIEGO (AP) Southern California will make a second straight visit to the Holiday Bowl, where it will play No. 23 Wisconsin on Dec. 30 at Qualcomm Stadium.

USC (8-5) won the Pac-12 South Division before losing to Stanford 41-24 in the conference championship game Saturday night.

The Trojans beat Nebraska 45-42 in last year's Holiday Bowl.

Wisconsin (9-3) was third in the Big Ten West Division. The Badgers are making their 14th consecutive bowl appearance, the longest active streak in the Big Ten and tied for the sixth-longest streak in the country.

The Badgers have the top-ranked scoring defense in the country, allowing just 13.1 points per game.

The Trojans have won five of their last eight games since Clay Helton was named interim head coach on Oct. 12. The school removed the interim tag last week.

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Three teams taking 5-7 records to bowl
December 6, 2015

Nebraska, Minnesota and San Jose State are being rewarded for their work in the classroom, not for what they did on the football field.

They were the three 5-7 teams needed to fill out the record 80 bowl slots, and they found out their destinations Sunday.

Nebraska will play UCLA (8-4) in the Foster Farms Bowl on Dec. 26 in Santa Clara, California. Minnesota is matched against Central Michigan (7-5) in the Quick Lane Bowl on Dec. 28 in Detroit. San Jose State goes across the country to meet Georgia State (6-6) in the Cure Bowl on Dec. 19 in Orlando, Florida.

From 2001 through 2014, a total of four teams went to bowls with losing records.

But this year only 77 teams had at least six victories and a .500 record - the minimum to be eligible for a bowl - so the three 5-7s received bids.

The NCAA approved a plan last week to fill the open slots with five-win teams based on their Academic Progress Ratings for 2013-14, the most recent scores available. Nebraska (985) was tops among those teams and was eager to get a chance to play another game.

Missouri (976) was second in line, but it announced earlier in the week it would not accept a bid at 5-7. Minnesota was next up at 975, tied with San Jose State.

The idea of losing teams going to bowls has been chided by pundits and even some fans of the 5-7 teams. They say if a team can't go .500, it doesn't merit a bowl.

Football Bowl Association executive director Wright Waters said he's happy to see the APR used to fill in the openings.

''It sends a message to teams that says, `Hey, take care of your academics, because it might make a difference down the road,' " Waters said. ''Isn't it wonderful we're rewarding instead of penalizing someone for academics?''

San Jose State was sanctioned for its 888 APR in 2008. Now the Spartans are in a bowl as one of the high-achieving academic teams.

''It's pretty good that if the NCAA had to, on a rare year, dip and take a team from the five-win category, let's reach into the people who are doing it right from an academic standpoint,'' Spartans coach Ron Caragher said.

The value of a bid goes beyond playing another game. The extra practices are huge for 5-7 teams like Nebraska, where first-year coach Mike Riley's team fell well short of expectations.

''The bowl practices and additional game will allow us to continue to build as a program,'' Riley said.

The Foster Farms is among three teams in the second tier of Big Ten bowls and was the last of those to choose. Executive director Gary Cavalli said his bowl could have chosen Nebraska or Minnesota or picked a six-win team from outside the Big Ten.

''Clearly, from the get-go, the decision was to stay with the Big Ten,'' Cavalli said.

Nebraska got the edge over Minnesota because, he said, there is greater interest in the Huskers in the Bay Area and that UCLA is a program with which Nebraska has some history.

By going to the Quick Lane, Minnesota is in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The Gophers will be playing their fifth game under Tracy Claeys, the former defensive coordinator who took over as head coach after Jerry Kill retired for health reasons Oct. 28. Claeys has since been named full-time coach.

''We're playing within the rules. We got chosen at 5-7, and that's the rules that are there,'' Claeys said. ''I'm proud of that and proud of the kids for that.''

San Jose State of the Mountain West Conference slid into the Cure Bowl because the American Athletic Conference couldn't provide a team. All eight AAC bowl-eligible teams were spoken for after Houston made a New Year's Six game (Peach Bowl), and Tulsa went to the Independence Bowl, a secondary AAC partner, because the Southeastern Conference didn't have a team available.

Caragher certainly isn't apologizing for going to a bowl at 5-7. His 2013 team went 6-6 and didn't go to a bowl.

''Life sometimes balances out,'' Caragher said. ''Sometimes things happen in a roundabout way. We were so close on a couple games you could easily flip our record - a two-point loss to BYU, overtime loss to Nevada. I feel like we were right there as a 6-6 or 7-5 team. We came up short.''

It's the second straight year a Mountain West team has gone to a bowl with a losing record. Fresno State was 6-7 after losing the 2014 league title game but was assured a bowl because of a conference rule guaranteeing a bid to a division champion.

The NCAA granted waivers to 6-7 teams in Georgia Tech in 2012 and UCLA in 2011 after both had appeared in their conference's championship games. North Texas in 2001 became the first five-win team to play in a bowl because it was the Sun Belt Conference champion.

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Saturday, December 12

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ARMY (2 - 9) vs. NAVY (9 - 2) - 12/12/2015, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARMY is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) against American Athletic conference opponents since 1992.
ARMY is 13-34 ATS (-24.4 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
ARMY is 11-34 ATS (-26.4 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
ARMY is 70-100 ATS (-40.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 151-113 ATS (+26.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
NAVY is 151-113 ATS (+26.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NAVY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing on a Saturday this season.
NAVY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NAVY is 68-37 ATS (+27.3 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
NAVY is 75-39 ATS (+32.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
NAVY is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NAVY is 1-1 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons
NAVY is 2-0 straight up against ARMY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, December 12

Navy won its last 13 games with Army, but Cadets covered four of last six in this great rivalry. Army lost its last six games vs I-A teams; three of four losses were by 10 or less points- their only I-A win was 58-36 at Eastern Michigan Sept 26. Navy had 5-game win streak snapped in last game, 52-31 loss at Houston; Middies' last three wins are by 23+ points. Navy ran for 374+ yards in four of its last five games. Army is 0-4-2 vs spread in its last six games; Navy is 8-3 vs spread this season.




NCAAF

Saturday, December 12

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Trend Report
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3:00 PM
ARMY vs. NAVY
Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Navy
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Army's last 5 games when playing Navy
Navy is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Army
Navy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Army

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Navy QB Reynolds look for sweep of Army
December 9, 2015

ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) When Keenan Reynolds first faced Army, the Navy quarterback couldn't help getting caught up in the enormity of the historic rivalry.

''That was a pretty nerve-racking game. When I think about it, I get nervous again,'' Reynolds recalled this week. ''I was thinking, one or two plays either way and we lose that game.''

Reynolds ran for an 8-yard touchdown with 4:41 left to give the Midshipmen the lead in a 17-13 victory.

''That's something that will stick with me forever,'' he said.

The 2012 season marked the beginning of Reynolds' sensational, record-setting college career. On Saturday, the talented senior hopes to add another milestone to his impressive list of accomplishments: first quarterback to go 4-0 as a starter in the Army-Navy series.

''That would be pretty awesome,'' Reynolds said. ''But it's not going to happen by just showing up.''

No. 21 Navy (9-2) is an overwhelming favorite to beat Army (2-9) for the 14th consecutive season. A victory would enable the Midshipmen to claim the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy, awarded annually to the military academy with the best record in games between Army, Navy and Air Force.

''That's the No. 1 priority,'' Reynolds said.

He intends to play this one with a far more relaxed attitude than in his initial encounter with the Black Knights.

''I'm going to enjoy all the little things about the game - coming out for warmups, going to midfield for the coin toss, that type of stuff,'' Reynolds said.

No matter what happens Saturday, Reynolds will be remembered as one of the finest quarterbacks in Naval Academy history. His 83 rushing touchdowns are the most ever among Football Bowl Subdivision schools, and his 4,279 yards rushing tops the school's career list. He can throw, too - Reynolds needs only 36 yards passing to become the first Navy quarterback to rush and pass for 1,000 yards in two separate seasons.

Reynolds operates coach Ken Niumatalolo's triple-option attack with near-flawless efficiency. When it comes to drawing up a game-plan to beat Navy, nothing is more important than stopping Reynolds.

''Trying to contain him is difficult. Every coach, every defensive staff they face will tell you the same,'' Army coach Jeff Monken said. ''He has a great knack for finding the opening, finding the crease, and then wiggling his way through there and getting a lot of extra yards. That's a unique talent in itself.

''He's as valuable to his team as anybody in the country.''

Especially against Army. In 2013, Reynolds dashed through the snow for 136 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-7 rout. Last year, the 5-foot-11 standout guided the Midshipmen to 17-10 victory.

And now, in his finale against the Black Knights, Reynolds can become the first quarterback to go 4 for 4 in a classic rivalry that began in 1890.

''It's a special opportunity that I've been afforded,'' Reynolds said. ''It's not something I've thought a lot about, but it is pretty cool.''

Reynolds has a 30-13 career record as a starter, and his numbers this year brought his name into the conversation as a potential Heisman Trophy finalist. He didn't make the cut, but no one will argue his stature as the best to play the position at Navy since Heisman winner Roger Staubach in 1963.

''I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed,'' Reynolds said of the Heisman slight. ''But I'm moving on. We've got a big week ahead of us and a lot of play for.''

Pro football isn't in the immediate future for Reynolds, who must serve out his military commitment after Navy faces Pitt on Dec. 28 in the Military Bowl. Staubach, who's gotten to know Reynolds well over the past four years, expects the Tennessee native to be as effective in the service as he is behind center.

''He has that ability, that humility, in addition to that greatness that he has, and I think that balance will make him a great officer,'' Staubach said. ''Whatever he chooses, he's going to be an inspiration to the active service after he graduates.''

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 12

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NAVY at ARMY 03:00 PM

ARMY +21.5 DOUBLE PLAY

U 50.5 DOUBLE PLAY

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Covers' College Football Bowl Betting Bible: Book I - Capping Thy Coaches

Each college football bowl season, select teams pack their bags and head off for their postseason matchup, giving sports bettors a fresh set of intriguing non-conference competitions. While there is an aura of the unknown when it comes to bowl teams – these programs don’t know much about each other – football bettors can find familiarity – and value – looking for teams in these certain situations.

We break down some of the important factors to figure into your bowl betting this December with our Bowl Betting Bible.

BOOK I: CAPPING THY COACHES

One of the biggest differences between wagering on college and professional sports is the impact of the coaching. In the college ranks, these coaches are the molders of young men and build a program from the bottom up, having a bigger influence on how the game is played. Oddsmakers factor coaching into the lines in college sports more than any other option.

That’s why it’s such a big deal when coaches are swapped out just before bowl season. Whether it be a coach taking a new job and leaving his former team in the hands of his assistants or a team firing its coach just before the postseason and pretty much hoping for the best in the bowl game. Bettors can find added value when handicapping the turnover on the sidelines.

“Teams and players often rally behind a new coach or departing coach, while other times players and teams are disappointed and provide a weak effort,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

The long-dangling “other shoe” dropped on former Georgia head coach Mark Richt, who was fired following the Bulldogs’ season finale with Georgia Tech. Originally, UGA’s appearance in the Taxslayer Bowl versus Penn State was going to be Richt’s swan song.

However, once job offers started rolling in, Richt stepped down and instead Georgia named receivers coach Bryan McClendon as the interim coach for the bowl game (-6.5). Former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart was hired as the incoming head coach at UGA on December 6.

Richt wasn’t on the market long, accepting the open gig in Miami. The Hurricanes axed head coach Al Golden after their embarrassing 58-0 loss to Clemson in Week 8, putting the program in the hands of assistant Larry Scott for the remainder of the schedule, in which he led “The U” to a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS finish.

Scott will likely not be kept on in Coral Gables, making Miami’s bowl game with Washington State in the Sun Bowl a huge opportunity for him to add to his resume. His players will be playing for pride and for their interim head coach, who won them over in the home stretch of the season. The Hurricanes are 3-point underdogs versus the Cougars on December 26.

Another ACC school going all out in bowl season for its departing coach is Virginia Tech, which will replace long-time head coach Frank Beamer with former Memphis coach Justin Fuente next season. Beamer’s final game on the sidelines – after 29 years with the program – will be the Independence Bowl where Virginia Tech is a 13.5-point favorite over Tulsa on December 26.

Beamer, who has led the Hokies to 23 straight bowl appearances, will get the best from his players and a loyal following of VT fans, who are known for making the trip to wherever the team is playing come the postseason, will flock to Shreveport, Louisiana to bid farewell to “Beamer Ball”.

One team that may be looking forward to the offseason, and not to its upcoming bowl game, are the Auburn Tigers. Auburn has suffered through a 6-6 SU season, going 3-9 ATS. That has rumors flying of top players transferring and has ignited the seat of head coach Gus Malzahn.

His defensive coordinator, Will Muschamp, has left after one season to coach South Carolina, stripping Malzahn of his best assistant heading into Auburn’s meeting with Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl, where oddsmakers have set Auburn as 2.5-point chalk. A loss to Memphis, in what is a bowl game pretty much in Auburn’s backyard, could be the straw that broke the camel’s back for Malzahn and this program.

Another coaching angle football bettors should be cautious of are current head coaches in the running for jobs at bigger programs. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has been mentioned as a replacement for numerous schools, with consideration for jobs at Virginia, Missouri (interviewed) and Rutgers.

How this job search sits with his players and staff heading into the Falcons’ Armed Forces Bowl is yet to be seen? Calhoun could be more focused on landing a big-name gig instead of game planning for California, which recently inked head coach Sonny Dykes – another highly sought-after coach – allowing the Golden Bears to focus on the future. Books have Calhoun and Air Force as 7-point underdogs.

Here are bowl teams with recent changes at head coach: BYU, Toledo, Bowling Green, Memphis, Georgia.

[StarDust Bum]

Three college football bowl bets you shouldn't wait on

With college football bowl season on the way, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at which matchups you should be sooner rather than later, if you want to get the best of the oddsmakers’ lines. Next week, he’ll look at which bowl games you should bet at the last minute.

Las Vegas Bowl: Utah Utes (-2.5) vs. BYU Cougars

Utah currently stands as a 2.5-point favorite over BYU and most books still have that line. But a few have gone to -3 already. I expect this line to hit the key number of three at the majority of sportsbooks, so shrewd bettors should jump on this game now.

Brigham Young is losing head coach Bronco Mendenhall to Virginia, but he will coach the Cougars in this game. However, that's a tricky situation, especially for the players who will be returning to BYU next season. They may tune Mendenhall out, and the distraction is enough to make BYU a fragile team. Utah has no such issues, and they'll come with their best effort against an in-state rival. Bettors should play this game now and take the best of the number.

New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico Lobos (+10) vs. Arizona Wildcats

This line briefly came out with Arizona as a -12.5 to -13 point favorite over New Mexico, but it quickly settled on the current line of -10. This line should eventually tick down below the key number of 10 at some point, so bettors should get on this game now.

New Mexico is essentially playing a home game. The Lobos went 5-2 SU at home this season with one of those losses only coming by seven points. Arizona went 2-4 SU on the road with one of its wins coming by seven points. The Wildcats went 1-4 SU down the stretch while the Lobos went 3-2 SU over their last five games. Take New Mexico now before the line goes lower.

Hawaii Bowl: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. San Diego State Aztecs (N/A)

Cincinnati and San Diego State are complete opposites. The Bearcats have a potent offense and a terrible defense. Cincinnati likes to throw the ball a lot. They average 373 passing yards per game. The Aztecs run the ball essentially on every play, averaging 48 rushing attempts per game while running for 235 yards per game.

This total, which has yet to hit the board, will be a difficult one for the oddsmakers to set because of the opposite styles of play. Cincinnati is currently a 1.5-point favorite over San Diego State. That indicates that this total may be shaded to the Over just a bit. Cincinnati to the Over and San Diego State to the Under are correlated in this game.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 1

SATURDAY, DEC. 19

ARIZONA at NEW MEXICO (New Mexico Bowl)

Lobos in first bowl since 2007. Bob Davie 11-7 last 18 vs. line, also 8-4 last 12 as underdog. Cats have covered just 5 of last 14 on board and just 1-5-1 vs. spread last seven away from Tucson. Rich-Rod 3-6 vs. line in his past nine bowls.

New Mexico, based on team trends.


BYU vs. UTAH (Las Vegas Bowl)

Old rivals have not met since 2013. Utah no covers last three or five of last six this season. BYU 10-5 vs. spread last 15 on board, 3-1 as dog this season. Bronco Mendenhall 6-4 vs. line last ten bowls. Utes are 11-1 SU last 12 bowls dating to the Ron McBride era, with Kyle Whittingham 7-1 SU and 6-2 vs. spread in bowls.

Utah, based on Ute bowl trends.


OHIO vs. APPALACHIAN STATE (Camellia Bowl)

Solich recovered with 8-4 spread mark this season, and he has won and covered two of his last three bowls with Bobcats, though he had dropped three previous bowls with Ohio. Solich 3-1 as dog this season after 3-9 mark getting points past two years. MAC schools recovered for 3-2 bowl spread mark last season after 8-19 vs. line in bowls from 2008-13. App cooled a bit down the stretch with 1-4 spread mark last five after covering 10 of previous 13.

Slight to Ohio, based on recent trends.

SAN JOSE STATE vs. GEORGIA STATE (Cure Orlando Bowl)

GSU was flying down the stretch with wins and covers last four and 6-0-1 vs. spread last seven in 2015. Panthers also 6-0 vs. spread away from home this season. Spartans were 5-1 as chalk TY but are 4-10 vs. spread last 14 away from home (3-3 in role this season).

Georgia State, based on recent trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at LA TECH (New Orleans Bowl)

Ark State has split SU and vs. line its bowl games the past four seasons. Red Wolves were hot down stretch this season, however, with wins and covers last four, 6-1 vs. line last 8, and 8 SU wins in a row. After LY’s 11-3 spread mark, Skip Holtz cooled to 6-6 this season and just 2-4 vs. spread away from Ruston.

Slight to Arkansas State, based on recent trends.


MONDAY, DEC. 21

WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. SOUTH FLORIDA (Miami Beach Bowl)

USF was a pointspread terror this season, covering 10 of 12, with SU wins and covers last four. Taggart facing old employer WKU, where he began his road trend in 2011. Taggart teams are 22-5 vs. spread away from home since 2011. Tops 2-4-1 vs. spread last seven away from home, and Tops 1-3-1 vs. spread last five vs. non-CUSA foes.

USF, based on team trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 2

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 22

AKRON vs. UTAH STATE (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl)
Utags have won and covered last three years in bowls, with Matt Wells winning last two. USU did stumble down stretch, however, no covers last four, and 5-7 spread mark was worst since 2011. USU 3-5 as chalk this season. Akron bowling for first time since 2005 and closed this season with a rush, covering last four and seven of last eight.

Slight to Akron, based on recent trends.


TOLEDO vs. TEMPLE (Boca Raton Bowl)
Rockets 8-2-1 vs. line TY, Owls 9-4 vs. spread. Toledo 1-3 vs. line last four bowl appearances. Temple bowling for first time since 2011. Toledo has covered last six away from Glass Bowl. Rockets 10-6-1 vs. spread last 17 vs. non-MAC. American teams 2-4 vs. line in bowls last season.

Slight to Toledo, based on team trends.


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23

BOISE STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (Poinsettia Bowl)
Boise 5-2 vs. spread last seven bowls though only 1-2 last three. Broncos only 6-5 SU last 11 bowls. Harsin just 6-6 vs. spread this season and 9-9 last 18 on board since mid 2014. NIU 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls but was 9-4 vs. spread this season and is 12-6 as dog since 2010.

Slight to NIU, based on recent trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at BOWLING GREEN (GoDaddy Bowl)
No more Dino Babers for BGSU after big 2015 in which Falcs were 9-3-1 vs. line, and enter bowl with 10-3-1 spread mark last 14. Though Falcs 1-2 SU and vs. line last three years in bowls, 1-5 SU and vs. line last six bowls dating to 2007. Over” 9-4 last 13 since late 2014. Ga Southern making first bowl appearance after covering 8 of 12 this season and 3-1 vs. line against non-Belt foes. Eagles 5-3 as dog the past two seasons.

Slight to Bowling Green, based on recent trends.


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 24


MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN (Bahamas Bowl)
Rick Stockstill 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls with MTSU, though this is only second bowl appearance for Blue Raiders since 2010. MTSU covered last four this season and was 8-4 vs. line in 2015. WMU 7-5 vs. spread in 2015 and 17-8 vs. spread since 2014, though recent bowl history spotty (0-3 SU and vs. line since 2008).

Slight to MTSU, based on recent trends.


CINCINNATI vs. SAN DIEGO STATE (Hawaii Bowl)
Aztecs won last nine SU TY, but were 0-4 vs. spread against non-MW and now 0-6 last six vs. non-MW foes. Rocky Long 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls with SDSU, 2-7 SU and vs. line in bowls in career. Cincy no wins or covers last two bowls, and Tuberville just 1-7 vs. spread last 8 vs. non-American foes.

Slight to SDSU, based on recent trends.


SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26


UCONN vs. MARSHALL (St. Petersburg Bowl)
UConn just 2-4 vs. line away from home TY and 3-8 vs. spread away from Rentsch since Diaco arrived in 2014. Diaco 4-4 as dog TY after 2-7 mark in role in LY’s rough debut. First bowl in five years for Huskies. Herd has won and covered last four bowls since 2009 and is 9-3 its last 12 as chalk away from home.

Marshall, based on team trends.


MIAMI-FLA. At WASHINGTON STATE (Sun Bowl)
Wazzu had covered eight in a row prior to season-ending loss in Apple Cup vs. Huskies in a game minus Luke Falk. Leach 13-7 vs. spread last 20 away from Pullman Canes have lost their last five bowls SU, 1-6 vs. spread last seven bowls. Miami 3-2 as dog in 2015 but was 1-6 in role previous two years.

WSU, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at WASHINGTON (Dallas Bowl)
USM has covered 10 of first 12 this season prior to CUSA title loss at WKU and was 4-2 as dog in 2015. Also 4-0 vs. spread in non-league games. Petersen 4-3 vs. spread vs. non-Pac 12 since arriving last season in Seattle and is 10-6 vs. line last 16 overall with Huskies.

USM, based on recent trends.


INDIANA vs. DUKE (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)
IU first bowl since 2007. Hoosiers around .500 in most spread categories past few years, though they have covered 4 of last 6 away from home. Cutcliffe winless SU last three years in bowls but has covered last two. Duke no bowl wins SU since the 1954 team beat Nebraska 34-7 in the Orange Bowl. Blue Devils lost and failed to cover four straight down stretch before finale win over Wake Forest. Cutcliffe had been 24-9-1 vs. line in the 34 games prior to late slump.

Slight to Duke, based on extended trends.


TULSA vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Independence Bowl)
Tulsa covered all six games on road this season, and is 9-1 vs. number last 10 away from home. Golden Hurricane also 4-1 SU and vs. line last four bowls (though this is first since 2012 Liberty). Beamer just 7-9-1 vs. line last 17 bowls. Beamer also just 4-9 last 13 as chalk away from home.
Tulsa, based on team trends.


NEBRASKA vs. UCLA (Foster Farms Bowl)
These teams met in 2012-13 with UCLA winning and covering each. Mora has won and covered last two bowls while Huskers have covered last two bowls after dropping previous three SU and vs. number. Mike Riley 5-3 vs. line in bowls with OSU. Riley 3-1 as dog this season and 29-18 as dog since 20008, which includes 1-5 mark LY in role at Oregon State.

Slight to Nebraska, based on team trends.



MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

PITT vs. NAVY (Military Bowl)
Pitt 1-3 SU and vs. line last four bowls, though this is Pat Narduzzi’s first bowl as head coach. Panthers were 4-1 vs. spread away this season and 4-2 as dog. Navy has won and covered last two bowls and is 7-3 vs. line last ten bowls since 2004. Mids 12-5 last 17 vs. spread since mid 2014.

Navy, based on team trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. MINNESOTA (Quick Lane Bowl)
Gophers have lost their last seven bowls SU since 2005, and no covers four of those last five. Though Minn is 10-2 vs. line with Tracy Claeys as coach (counting his interim stint in 2013). Gophers 3-7 vs. line last 10 vs. non-Big Ten. CMU 4-1-1 vs. line in bowls since 2006 under a variety of coaches and is 21-10 vs. spread its last 31 on board. Chips also 10-3 last 13 as dog.

CMU, based on team and bowl trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Bowl Tech Trends - Week 3

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 29

AIR FORCE vs. CAL (Armed Forces Bowl)
Cal 1-5 vs. line last six this season and has dropped its last pointspread decision of the year a remarkable seven seasons in a row! Bears just 2-4 vs. spread away from Berkeley in 2015 and have not covered a bowl since the 2007 team in this same bowl vs. Air Force. Falcs 13-5-1 last 19 vs. spread and are 8-3 their last 11 as dog. Troy Calhoun 4-1 vs. line last five in bowls.

Air Force, based on team trends.


BAYLOR vs. NORTH CAROLINA (Russell Athletic Bowl)
Art Briles no wins or covers last two years in bowls, and Bears just 6-10 vs. number their last 16 on the board. Heels 8-5 vs. line this season though only 2-3 vs. spread away from Chapel Hill. Larry Fedora no covers last four bowls with USM and UNC.

Slight to North Carolina, based on recent trends.


NEVADA vs. COLORADO STATE (Arizona Bowl)
Pack closed season on 4-0-1 spread run and was 4-1-1 vs. line away from Reno, now 9-3-1 vs. spread away since last season. Pack 2-2 vs. line last four bowls. Rams 2-5-1 vs. spread last 8 away from Fort Collins and have failed to cover in bowls the past two seasons.

Nevada, based on team trends.


TEXAS TECH vs. LSU (Texas Bowl)
TT 10-5 last 15 vs. spread since late 2014 and Kingsbury 9-5 vs. number last 14 as dog, and Tech has won SU in its last four bowls since 2009. Les Miles no covers last four or five of last six bowls, and also no covers last five away from Baton Rouge. Tigers 3-10 vs. spread last 13 as chalk away form home.

Texas Tech, based on team trends.


WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 30

MEMPHIS vs. AUBURN (Birmingham Bowl)
Gus Malzahn 2-10 vs. spread this season, , 2-15 last 17 on board, 4-19 last 23 vs. spread since early 2014. Memphis 5-0-1 last six as dog and won and covered its bowl vs. BYU LY.

Memphis, based on recent Auburn woes.


NC STATE vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Belk Bowl)
MSU 2-3 vs. line last five bowls, and Dan Mullen just 9-9-1 last 19 games on board since mid 2014. Wolfpack 0-4 as dog TY though have covered 8 of last 10 away from Raleigh and are 12-6 last 18 on board.

Slight to NCS, based on team trends.


LOUISVILLE vs. TEXAS A&M (Music City Bowl)
Petrino a very middling 13-12 vs. spread since his return to the ‘Ville and just 2-6 vs. spread in bowls during his career (0-4 as bowl dog). Kevin Sumlin 4-1 SU, 3-2 vs. line in bowls, and Ags just 12-21 last 33 vs. spread since early 2013.

Slight to A&M, based on bowl trends.


WISCONSIN vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Holiday Bowl)
Badgers 3-1-1 vs. line last five as bowl dog. Wiscy 11-5 last 16 as dog (though 0-1 TY). Paul Chryst right around .500 in almost all spread categories in his career. Trojans 1-2 vs. line last three bowls, 3-8 vs. points last 11 away from Coliseum.

Wisconsin, based on team trends.


THURSDAY, DECEMBER 31

HOUSTON vs. FLORIDA STATE (Peach Bowl)
Cougs had covered 10 straight and 17 of 18 away from home prior to UConn loss on Nov. 21. Cougs 27-13-1 vs. spread since late 2012. Jimbo no covers last two bowls though Noles did make a pointspread turnaround late in 2015 when covering last five. FSU was 6-16 vs. spread in 22 prior games.

Houston, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN STATE vs. ALABAMA (Cotton Bowl)
Nick Saban beat old employer MSU in 49-7 romp in Capital One Bowl after 2010 season. Nick no wins or covers last two bowls but had won and covered four previous. Tide covered five of six away from Tuscaloosa this season. Dantonio covered 5 of last 7 in 2015 after slow start vs. spread and is 18-7 vs. spread last 25 away from East Lansing. Also 10-1 last 11 as dog. Spartans have also won and covered last five bowls.

Slight to Michigan State, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA vs. CLEMSON (Orange Bowl)
Rematch of LY's Russell Athletic Bowl won big by Clemson, 40-6. Dabo has won and covered as dog vs. LSU, Ohio State, and OU in bowls the past three years. Dabo 8-4 as dog since 2011., though Clemson was on 4-game spread skid in 2-15 prior to ACC title narrow cover vs. Heels. Stoops 3-2 SU and vs. line last five bowls and covered 6 of last 7 down stretch. Sooners 11-5 vs. number last 16 away from Norman.

OU, based on recent trends.


FRIDAY, JANUARY 1

TENNESSEE vs. NORTHWESTERN (Outback Bowl)
Butch Jones won bowl vs. Iowa LY but that was Vols’ first bowl since 2010, a point when UT had dropped consecutive bowls vs. UNC & VPI. Vols 14-10-1 vs. line last two seasons. Cats were 8-4 vs. number in 2015and covered 4 of 5 away from Evanston in 2015, and Fitzgerald 17-10 vs. spread last 27 away from Ryan Field. Fitz 31-22 as dog since 2008 and 23-10 as dog away from home since 2008.

Northwestern, based on team trends.


FLORIDA vs. MICHIGAN (Citrus Bowl)
Jim McElwain no covers last two this season but was still 8-4-1 vs. line in 2015, upping his spread mark to 29-12-1 since late 2012 at CSU. McElwain also 10-4-1 last 15 as dog. Michigan only 6-6 vs. line this season.

Florida, based on team trends.


NOTRE DAME vs. OHIO STATE (Fiesta Bowl)
First meeting since Fiesta Bowl after 2005 season. Buckeyes have won and covered all three meetings since 1995. Brian Kelly just 1-3 vs. line last four bowls, while Urban Meyer now 9-2 SU and vs. line in bowls (counting title game LY). Brian Kelly 3-0-1 last four as dog but just 2-3-1 vs. spread away from South Bend this season.

Ohio State, based on Meyer bowl trends.


IOWA vs. STANFORD (Rose Bowl)
Hawkeyes covered all six away from Iowa City this season and were 2-0 as dog. Kirk Ferentz 5-2 vs. spread last seven in bowls. Stanford 3-1-1 vs. line last five bowls (2-1-1 for David Shaw) and have covered 12 of last 16 since late 2014.

Slight to Iowa, based on recent trends.


OLE MISS at OKLAHOMA STATE (Sugar Bowl)
Hugh Freeze had won and covered handily in his first two bowls at Ole Miss before debacle LY at Peach vs. TCU. Freeze still 32-18-1 vs. spread since arriving at Ole Miss and 42-20-1 vs. spread in career including 2011 at Ark State. Freeze 12-6-1 vs. line vs. non-SEC since 2012 with Rebs. Gundy just 3-4 vs. line last seven bowls and only 7-8 last 15 as dog.

Ole Miss, based on Freeze trends.


SATURDAY, JANUARY 2

PENN STATE vs. GEORGIA (Taxslayer Gator Bowl)
Penn State 0-5 vs. line away from home this season and just 1-9 last 10 in role, only cover narrowly in bowl vs. BC LY. James Franklin 0-4 as dog this season. Dawgs 2-1 SU and vs. line last three bowls though just 4-7 vs. spread in 2015.

Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.


KANSAS STATE vs. ARKANSAS (Liberty Bowl)
Bill Snyder 24-12 last 36 as dog. Though Cats just 1-4 SU and vs. spread in bowls since his return (including loss to Arkansas in Cotton Bowl after 2011), and K-State 1-8 vs. spread in last nine bowls. Bielema on 17-7 spread run since early in 2014 and covered last four away from home this season.

Slight to K-State, based on Snyder dog trends.


TCU vs. OREGON (Alamo Bowl)
Ducks had won and covered five straight down stretch this season before non-cover in Civil War vs. Beavers. Ducks had won and covered four bowls in a row prior to title loss to Buckeyes last January. Ducks 5-0 vs. points away from home this season, 11-1 last 12 in role. Frogs just 2-4 vs. spread away from Fort Worth this term and had failed to cover five straight bowls prior to LY’s 42-3 romp past Ole Miss in the Peach.

Oregon, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA vs. ARIZONA STATE (Cactus Bowl)
Local edge for ASU in this game played a few miles from home. Sun Devils 1-5 vs. spread last six bowls but only 1-2 of that belongs to Todd Graham. ASU covered last three in 2015 but had dropped 9 of previous 11 vs. number. ASU just 2-8 last 10 vs. line against non-Pac 12 foes. WVU 0-3 SU and vs. line in bowls since 2010 team blew out Clemson in the Orange. Mounties just 3-7 vs. spread last 10 away from Morgantown.

Slight to ASU, based on team trends.