The Bum's National Football League Week # 13 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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Public Fades - Week 13
December 3, 2015

Only one undefeated team remains in the NFL heading into December, as the Panthers waxed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving to improve to 11-0. New England fell apart late at Denver, blowing a 21-7 lead in an overtime loss to the Broncos to suffer its first defeat following a 10-0 start. Both the Panthers and Patriots are in line for home-field advantage in their respective conferences, as each team is listed as a touchdown-plus favorite in Week 13.

In this week’s edition of "Public Fades," we’ll look to go 2-0 for the first time since Week 8, even though the last four weeks have produced a 1-1 split each time. The Saints and Eagles had playoff aspirations but each team is currently below .500 with five weeks to go. Can either team pull off an upset against the best from the AFC and NFC on Sunday?

Panthers (-7, 50) at Saints – 4:25 PM EST

It’s been a season to remember in Carolina for its pro football team, looking to make its second Super Bowl in franchise history. The Panthers still have plenty of work to do, trying to remain undefeated while trying to hold off Arizona for the top seed in the NFC. Carolina dominated Dallas on Thanksgiving, 33-14 to improve to 5-0 SU/ATS away from Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers beat the Saints back in Week 3 by a 27-22 count, but failed to cash as 10-point favorites, while Drew Brees sat out that game due to injury.

New Orleans has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, starting 1-4, followed by a three-game winning streak to even their mark at 4-4. The Saints have fallen backwards again thanks to a three-game skid, capped off by a 24-6 setback at Houston last Sunday as 3 ½-point underdogs. New Orleans was held to single-digits for the third time since Brees took over at quarterback in 2006, as Sean Payton’s team is listed at their highest home underdog number in the past 10 years.

So why back the Saints?

VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson says New Orleans’ offense will try to get on track at home, “With three straight losses, the playoff hopes for the Saints are slim sitting at 4-7, but the home results for New Orleans have been good with a 3-2 record with wins over the Cowboys, Falcons, and Giants and narrow losses to Tampa Bay and Tennessee. New Orleans is the third-most productive offensive team in the league posting 401 yards per game, more than 52 yards more per game than the 11-0 Panthers produce. The Saints do have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, but they are particularly vulnerable against the pass and Carolina is the fourth least productive passing team in the league.”

Nelson believes the Panthers peaked with their Thanksgiving rout of the Cowboys, “With extra time off this week having played on a big stage on Thanksgiving in Dallas, the Panthers will have a hard time bringing the same energy to a second straight road game knowing a bigger game with the season’s first meeting with Atlanta is up next. Last week’s lopsided result featured two defensive touchdowns for the Panthers, who also have the league’s best turnover margin at +16, breaks that may not continue all season and the Panthers are starting to reach their peak valuation.”

Eagles at Patriots (-9 ½, 49) – 4:25 PM EST

Philadelphia suffered an embarrassing defeat on national television on Thanksgiving, falling at Detroit, 45-14 as three-point underdogs. The Eagles allowed 45 points for the second straight week, as Mark Sanchez threw for 199 yards and two touchdowns in place of the injured Sam Bradford. This week, Bradford is expected back in the lineup, as the Eagles’ offense needs a jolt after being held to 19 points or less in four of the past five games. Philadelphia has received more than four points under Chip Kelly once only since 2013, getting blown out at Denver that season, 52-20 as 10-point underdogs.

The Patriots were on their way to an eleventh straight win to start the season, but New England squandered a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter of a 30-24 overtime loss at Denver. The rushing defense of the Patriots was shredded by the Broncos’ ground game, allowing 179 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning 48-yard touchdown scamper by C.J. Anderson. Tight end Rob Gronkowski suffered a knee sprain and will miss Sunday’s game against the Eagles, adding to the laundry list of offensive weapons sidelined for New England.

So why back the Eagles?

Nelson says fading New England in this spot is a good idea, “The defensive yardage numbers are similar for these teams despite the contrasting scoring and records and the possibility of Bradford returning could provide a boost for the Eagles. The injuries are adding up for the Patriots on the receiving corps as well as on defense and while the Patriots have a great track record off a loss they are on a 21-36 ATS run when favored by more than seven points.”

NFL handicapper Antony Dinero breaks down all the changes of personnel the Eagles have to endure in order to compete in Foxboro, “Bradford is progressing to play, so his return would be an upgrade given how Sanchez has played. Jason Peters and Zach Ertz look like they’re returning and Ryan Mathews might make it back too. If nothing else, the Eagles may take a fairly fresh, talented squad into New England to see Tom Brady and the walking wounded. If Danny Amendola is out, the Pats will be down their top four reception leaders. It sounds like a massacre waiting to happen given how bad the Eagles have been, but they might find some unexpected fight simply to avoid being embarrassed.”

NFL expert Vince Akins provides an interesting betting angle regarding undefeated teams coming off losses late in the season, “There is a lot of pressure on a team to keep that undefeated record going, and when they lost their first game of the season as New England did in Denver last week, there is a bit of letdown the next game as a team re-adjusts to their new reality. In fact, teams in Week 6 of the season and beyond that just lost their first game of the season last game have covered just 40% of the time after that first loss and just 1-3 SU and ATS this season. There is plenty of room of New England to still win this game without playing to their full potential this week.”

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MAC Championship
December 3, 2015

Matchup: Bowling Green vs. Northern Illinois
Date: Friday, Dec. 4
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - ESPN2
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, Michigan
Line, Total: Falcons -12.5, 69.5

Bowling Green and Northern Illinois are set to collide Friday night at Ford Field in Detroit for the MAC Championship Game. The Huskies won the MAC West for the sixth straight season, while the Falcons took the East for a third consecutive year.

This is essentially a rubber match after these schools split the last two meetings in Motown, blowing out the other in 2013 and ’14. When Dave Clawson was at the helm for Bowling Green, his team blasted the Huskies by a 47-27 count as a four-point underdog. Then last year, NIU returned the favor by smashing the Falcons 51-17 as a 6.5-point ‘chalk.’

As of Thursday, most books had Bowling Green (9-3 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) installed as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 69.5points. The Huskies were +385 on the money line (risk $100 to win $385).

Bowling Green is dealing with the distraction of its head coach being courted by a number of schools over the last week. As of Thursday, Dino Babers was considered in the mix for a number of jobs, including the Syracuse gig.

Babers’ team is led by senior quarterback Matt Johnson, who leads the nation in passing yards (4,465) and is second in touchdown passes (41). He has only been intercepted six times this year and his career touchdown-to-interception ratio is 68/14. Johnson has rushed for 149 yards and four TDs.

Johnson’s favorite target is sophomore WR Roger Lewis, who was a first-team All-MAC selection as a true freshman last year when he had 73 receptions for 1,093 yards and seven TDs. In 2015, Lewis has made 76 catches for 1,401 yards and 14 TDs. Gehrig Dieter has 82 receptions for 882 yards and nine TDs, while Ronnie Moore has hauled in 62 catches for 815 yards and five TDs.

Babers also has a pair of quality running backs at his disposal. Travis Greene has run for 1,036 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Fred Coppet has 712 rushing yards and four TDs with a 5.9 YPC average.

Bowling Green is fourth in the nation in scoring, averaging 44.2 points per game. The Falcons rank third in the country in total offense (566 yards per game) and passing yards (387.8 YPG). On the flip side, they are 90th in total defense, 101st in pass defense, 64th in run defense and 74th in scoring defense (27.8 PPG).

No. Illinois (8-4 SU, 7-3-2 ATS) saw its six-game winning streak snapped last Tuesday when it was upset by Ohio 26-21 as an 11-point home favorite. The Huskies had compiled a 5-0-1 spread record during their six-game surge. Nevertheless, they won the four-way tiebreaker between Toledo, Central Michigan and Western Michigan to take the MAC West title.

NIU finds itself in a rich underdog spot because of injuries at the QB position. Star Drew Hare suffered a season-ending injury in the first half of road game at Toledo in early November. Nevertheless, the Huskies were still able to capture a 37-32 win over the Rockets at The Glass Bowl.

Graham went down with a leg injury against the Bobcats last week. He is listed as ‘questionable’ but is expected to be available although Rod Carey has already given the starting nod to true freshman Tommy Fiedler, who hadn’t taken a collegiate snap until last week.

Filling in for Graham against Ohio, Fiedler completed 9-of-17 throws for 113 yards and one TD without an interception. He also rushed three times for 20 yards. When asked by the media this week if he expected to be starting in the MAC Championship Game, Fiedler said, “Not this year.”

NIU lost a pair of one-possession games in non-conference play, losing 20-13 at Ohio St. and 17-14 at Boston College. The Huskies have thrived as underdogs since 2005, compiling a 23-10 spread record. They are 3-0 ATS as ‘dogs this season and 6-2 ATS since Carey took over in 2013.

Look for Carey’s offense to lean on junior RB Joel Bouagnon, who has rushed for 1,213 yards and 18 TDs while averaging 4.6 YPC. Jordan Huff should get plenty of touches as well. The sophomore speedster has 617 rushing yards and eight TDs to go with an 8.1 YPC average.

Kenny Golladay, a junior who transferred in from North Dakota, has emerged as the team’s best pass catcher. Golladay has 70 receptions for 1,107 yards and 10 TDs. Tommylee Lewis has 33 catches for 387 yards and three TDs, but he’s missed three straight games with an ankle injury that has him listed as ‘questionable’ for Friday night.

The defense will be without junior DT Corey Thomas, who went down with a season-ending injury two weeks ago. Thomas had made 26 tackles and 1.5 tackles for loss.

Bowling Green lost three starters, including its place-kicker and OT Christian Piazza, to season-ending injuries earlier this year. However, the Falcons have no new injuries and come to Motown healthy.

Bowling Green has been money as a double-digit favorite, posting a perfect 5-0 spread record in those situations. The Falcons played a quality non-conference schedule, winning at Maryland (48-27) and at Purdue (35-28). They lost at home to Memphis by a 44-41 count in a thriller and also dropped a 59-30 decision at Tennessee in the season opener However, we should note that Babers’ squad trailed just 35-27 late in the third quarter at Neyland Stadium.

Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) for No. Illinois, but it has seen the ‘under’ cash in back-to-back games and three of its last four. The Huskies have seen their games average combined scores of 59.4 points per game. They have had only one total in the 70s, with the ‘over’ appearing in a 57-26 win over Murray St. that saw the 83 combined points eclipse the 77-point tally.

Totals have also been an overall wash (6-6) for Bowling Green, but it has watched the ‘under’ hit in three straight outings and four of its last five. The ‘under’ has gone 4-3 in the Falcons’ seven games with totals in the 70s. They have seen their games average combined scores of 71.9 PPG.

Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

MAC CHAMPIONSHIP HISTORY

Year Location Matchup Line Score ATS Result

2015 Detroit, MI Northern Illinois-Bowling Green - - -

2014 Detroit, MI Northern Illinois-Bowling Green Northern Illinois -5 (64) Northern Illinois 51-17 Favorite-Over

2013 Detroit, MI Northern Illinois-Bowling Green Northern Illinois -3 (58) Bowling Green 47-27 Underdog-Over

2012 Detroit, MI Northern Illinois-Kent State Northern Illinois -5 (60) Northern Illinois 44-37 (2OT) Favorite-Over

2011 Detroit, MI Northern Illinois-Ohio Northern Illinois -3.5 (71) Northern Illinois 23-20 Underdog-Under

2010 Detroit, MI Northern Illinois-Miami (Ohio) Northern Illinois -18.5 (55) Miami (Ohio) 26-21 Underdog-Under

2009 Detroit, MI Ohio-Central Michigan Central Michigan -14 (55.5) Central Michigan 20-10 Underdog-Under

2008 Detroit, MI Ball State-Buffalo Ball State -15 (63.5) Buffalo 42-24 Underdog-Over

2007 Detroit, MI Central Michigan-Miami (Ohio) Central Michigan -3 (63.5) Central Michigan 35-10 Favorite-Under

2006 Detroit, MI Ohio-Central Michigan Central Michigan -3 (47) Central Michigan 31-10 Favorite-Under

2005 Detroit, MI Akron-Northern Illinois Northern Illinois -13 (54) Akron 31-30 Underdog-Over

2004 Detroit, MI Toledo-Miami (Ohio) Miami (Ohio) -1 (65) Toledo 35-27 Underdog-Under

2003 Detroit, MI Bowling Green-Miami (Ohio) Miami (Ohio) -7 (57) Miami (Ohio) 49-27 Favorite-Over

2002 Huntington, WV Marshall-Toledo Marshall -3.5 (62.5) Marshall 49-45 Favorite-Over

2001 Toledo, OH Toledo-Marshall Marshall -3 (62.5) Toledo 41-36 Underdog-Over

2000 Huntington, WV Marshall-Western Michigan Western Michigan -6.5 (52) Marshall 19-14 Underdog-Under

1999 Huntington, WV Marshall-Western Michigan Marshall -20.5 (57) Marshall 34-30 Underdog-Over

1998 Huntington, WV Marshall-Toledo Marshall -12 (49) Marshall 23-17 Underdog-Under

1997 Huntington, WV Marshall-Toledo Marshall -1 (53) Marshall 34-14 Favorite-Under

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Friday's MAC Championship
December 3, 2015


NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (8-4) vs. BOWLING GREEN FALCONS (11-1)

Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Bowling Green -12.5, Total: 70

Northern Illinois and Bowling Green will play in the MAC Championship for the third straight season when the schools collide Friday in Detroit.

In the 2013 conference title game, the Falcons were tabbed as a slight 3-point underdog and recorded a 47-27 blowout, but the Huskies returned the favor in last year's championship with an even more lopsided 51-17 result.

Northern Illinois (8-3-1 ATS) has been playing great football lately with six wins in the past seven games, but the one defeat was a shocking 26-21 loss to double-digit underdog Ohio in the regular-season finale on Nov. 24. Because of injuries to its top two quarterbacks, true freshman QB Tommy Fiedler is expected to start on Friday.

Bowling Green (9-3 ATS) also had a recent surprising loss when it fell 44-28 at home to 8-point underdog Toledo on Nov. 17, but closed out the regular season with a 48-10 blowout win over Ball State.

These teams are meeting for the 10th time since 1997 with the Huskies holding a slight 5-4 SU advantage and the Falcons keeping an even 4-4-1 ATS mark. There are more betting trends expecting Bowling Green to win big on Friday, as the school is 8-0 ATS after a conference win by 21+ points in the past three seasons and 11-1 ATS under head coach Dino Babers after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in its previous game.

However, bettors expecting a single-digit margin can point to Northern Illinois going 8-1 ATS in non-home games after playing Under the total in the past two years and its 37-17 ATS mark versus teams with 60+ penalty YPG since 1992.

On the injury front, the Falcons are in great shape with no significant ailments, while the Huskies will be without top QB Drew Hare (leg, out for season) and probably No. 2 QB Ryan Graham (leg), who is listed as highly questionable. They also lost DL Corey Thomas (knee) for the season last game and No. 2 WR Tommylee Lewis (387 rec yds) is listed as questionable with an ankle injury.

If freshman QB Ryan Graham (48-of-81, 653 yds, 8.1 YPA, 6 TD, 3 INT) isn't able to return from a leg injury he suffered when he took a sack against Ohio, third-string QB Tommy Fiedler will get his first career start. Although very green as a true freshman, the left-hander stands tall at 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds and was decent against Ohio last week in completing 9-of-17 passes for 113 yards (6.5 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT. Fiedler also carried the football three times for 20 yards.

Whomever is throwing the football will continue to use junior WR Kenny Golladay (70 rec, 1,107 yds, 10 TD) as the top target.

The Huskies have been a strong offensive team this season with 34.6 PPG on 441 total YPG, and not all the pressure is on the quarterback because of a productive ground game that eats up 213 YPG on 4.4 YPC.

In last year's conference championship, NIU steamrolled Bowling Green for 334 rushing yards on 6.5 YPC and four touchdowns. RB Joel Bouagnon had 57 yards on just nine carries (6.3 YPC) in that win, and he has been the main back this season with a hefty 1,212 yards on 4.6 YPC with 18 touchdowns. But after rushing for at least 85 yards in six straight games, he has been limited to 107 yards on 37 carries (2.9 YPC) over the past two weeks.

The Northern Illinois defense has been average this season in allowing 24.8 PPG on 392 total YPG, but the numbers are actually better away from home (22.5 PPG on 345 total YPG). The team allows 159 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC, and 233 passing YPG on 6.3 YPA and 56% completions. Turnovers have also been key, as the Huskies have multiple takeaways in four straight games and the Falcons committed five turnovers just two games ago.

Despite Bowling Green's five giveaways in the loss to Toledo, the team has turned the football over only six times in the other 11 games combined. This ball protection has led to stellar offensive numbers of 44.2 PPG and 566 total YPG this season.

While the team has a quality rushing attack with 178 YPG on 4.6 YPC, the Falcons prefer to air out the football with 388 passing YPG on 8.9 YPA. Senior QB Matt Johnson has completed 69% of his passes this year for 4,465 yards (9.0 YPA), 41 TD and only six interceptions. He was injured for last season's MAC title game, but in 2013 he torched the Huskies in capturing the conference crown by completing 21-of-27 throws for 393 yards and five touchdowns with no picks.

His top target this season has been sophomore WR Roger Lewis (76 rec, 1,401 yds, 14 TD) who has seven 100-yard games, including three for 200+ yards. But in the past two games, Lewis has been limited to 45.5 receiving YPG as defenses try to take him out of the equation. That has allowed junior WR Gehrig Dieter to see a ton of targets, as Dieter has 24 receptions for 184 yards and 4 TD in the past two games.

On the ground, the Falcons rely most heavily on the tandem of RBs Travis Greene (1,036 rush yds, 5.7 YPC, 12 TD) and Fred Coppet (712 rush yds, 5.9 YPC, 4 TD). Greene was the lone offensive bright spot in the loss to NIU last season when he rushed for 105 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries (5.8 YPC).

The Bowling Green defense gives up 27.7 PPG on 422 total YPG, but those numbers are significantly better against MAC foes (21.9 PPG on 394 total YPG). The team allows 167 YPG on 4.1 YPC on the ground, while surrendering a beefier 255 YPG on 6.7 YPA through the air. This is a very opportunistic unit though, as it has racked up 16 takeaways over the past seven contests, and is facing an NIU team with multiple giveaways in seven different games this season.

[StarDust Bum]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 3

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

GB at DET 08:25 PM

GB -2.5 TRIPLE PLAY

O 47.0 TRIPLE PLAY

[StarDust Bum]

SuperContest Picks - Week 13
December 5, 2015

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry, and it’s all a 100% payback. Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. LVH SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 1,727 entries, which is an all-time record. The winner of this year's top prize will be given a check for $906,675, plus the top 50 finishers will collect cash prizes too.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.


Through 12 weeks of the season, the Top 5 Consensus Picks have gone 32-26-2 (55%) in the SuperContest.

Week 13

1) Seattle (484)
2) Houston (439)
3) New Orleans (432)
4) N.Y. Giants (424)
5) Kansas City (414)

SUPERCONTEST WEEK 13 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Green Bay (-3) 153 Detroit (+3) 66
San Francisco (+7) 141 Chicago (-7) 314
Cincinnati (-9.5) 235 Cleveland (+9.5) 182
Jacksonville (+2.5) 127 Tennessee (-2.5) 190
Houston (+3.5) 439 Buffalo (-3.5) 197
Baltimore (+4) 190 Miami (-4) 159
Carolina (-7) 325 New Orleans (+7) 432
Seattle (PK) 484 Minnesota (PK) 324
Arizona (-5.5) 336 St. Louis (+5.5) 269
Atlanta (+1.5) 336 Tampa Bay (-1.5) 206
N.Y. Jets (-2.5) 144 N.Y. Giants (+2.5) 424
Denver (-4) 366 San Diego (+4) 234
Kansas City (-2.5) 414 Oakland (+2.5) 259
Philadelphia (+9.5) 195 New England (-9.5) 190
Indianapolis (+7) 180 Pittsburgh (-7) 268
Dallas (+4.5) 215 Washington (-4.5) 246

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Week 13 Tip Sheet
December 5, 2015

Texans at Bills (-3 ½, 41 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

These two AFC squads are going in different directions of late, as Houston (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won four straight games to pull into a tie atop the AFC South with Indianapolis. The Texans’ defense continues to shine by allowing six points in three of their past four victories, while coming off a dominating 24-6 effort against the Saints last Sunday as 3 ½-point favorites. Houston looks to improve on a 2-3 SU/ATS record away from NRG Stadium, as the Texans beat the Bills last season at home, 23-17.

Two weeks ago, Buffalo (5-6 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) sat above the .500 mark and in a prime position to grab a Wild Card spot. The Bills are still in the hunt, but consecutive losses to the Patriots and Chiefs on the road the last two weeks has derailed things. Buffalo jumped out to a 16-7 advantage at Kansas City last Sunday before the Chiefs rallied for a 30-22 victory as 4 ½-point favorites. Rex Ryan’s club hasn’t been great at home since whipping the Colts in the opener, losing three of their past four games at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills are 1-3 SU/ATS in the favorite role with the lone victory coming in their last home game against the Dolphins in Week 9.

Seahawks (-1 ½, 42) at Vikings – 1:00 PM EST

A game involving major tiebreaking implications in the NFC playoff race takes place in Minnesota, as the Vikings (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) try to capitalize on last week’s 20-10 victory at Atlanta. Adrian Peterson rushed for over 100 yards for the fourth time in the past five games for the Vikings, racking up 158 yards and two touchdowns to give Minnesota its fourth straight road victory. The Vikings won their first four games at TCF Bank Stadium before getting blown out by the Packers two weeks ago, as Mike Zimmer’s team owns a fantastic 8-2 SU/ATS record the last 10 home games since last November.

The Seahawks (6-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) have bounced back from a 2-4 start to win four of the past five games and creep back above the .500 mark. Seattle outlasted Pittsburgh in a shootout last Sunday, 39-30 to cash late as three-point favorites, the third straight ‘over’ for Pete Carroll’s squad. The Seahawks have overcome an 0-3 road start to win each of their last two away from CenturyLink Field, beating the 49ers and Cowboys in low-scoring affairs. Seattle is making its first visit to Minnesota since 2009, as the Seahawks beat the Vikings in their previous meeting two seasons ago, 30-20, even though Peterson rushed for 182 yards and two touchdowns.

Falcons at Buccaneers (-1, 46) – 1:00 PM EST

A 5-0 start is a distant memory for Atlanta (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS), who is in danger of missing the postseason. The Falcons lost their fourth straight game last Sunday in a 20-10 home defeat to the Vikings, the sixth consecutive contest that Dan Quinn’s team has scored 21 points or less. Atlanta is the coldest ATS team in the league by failing to cover its last seven games, including a 23-20 home overtime loss to Tampa Bay last month as eight-point favorites.

Last season, the Buccaneers (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) selected first in the NFL Draft, but are far from that slot this season. Tampa Bay’s two-game winning streak came to a halt in a 25-12 setback at Indianapolis as three-point underdogs, as Jameis Winston was held to one passing touchdown or less for the fourth time in five games. The Bucs have cashed in five of the past seven games overall, while sailing ‘over’ the total in four of five home contests.

Jets (-2, 46 ½) at Giants – 1:00 PM EST

The battle of New Jersey pits two clubs that are fighting playoff spots in different situations. The Giants (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are somehow tied for the top spot in the NFC East with the Redskins in spite of sitting below .500, as New York fell short at Washington last Sunday, 20-14 to suffer their second consecutive loss. Tom Coughlin’s squad fell to 2-3 inside the division, while splitting a pair of game against AFC competition, which includes a last-second home loss to the Patriots.

The Jets (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) have gone through a roller-coaster ride in Todd Bowles’ first season as head coach. New York began the campaign at 4-1, but fell backwards the last six games by dropping four of six to fall into the AFC Wild Card logjam alongside Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Houston, and Indianapolis. The Jets snapped a two-game skid in last Sunday’s 38-20 rout of the Dolphins, the highest-scoring output for New York this season. This rivalry has been all Giants over the years with Big Blue beating Gang Green five straight times since 1996, including a 29-14 triumph by the Giants in the final month of the 2011 season.

Chiefs (-3, 44 ½) at Raiders – 4:05 PM EST

No team in the AFC is hotter than Kansas City (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) over the last five games, as the Chiefs haven’t lost since a 1-5 start. Kansas City goes for its third road win over a division foe in the past month after beating Denver and San Diego in November. The Chiefs rallied past the Bills, 30-22 to cash as 4 ½-point favorites last Sunday, as Andy Reid’s club has covered each of the last four times when laying points. Kansas City has struggled in its last few visits to the Black Hole, losing two of the past three meetings to Oakland, including a 24-20 setback as seven-point road favorites last season.

Following a promising start, the Raiders (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) dropped three in a row prior to a 24-21 triumph at Tennessee last Sunday. Derek Carr threw for 330 yards and three touchdown passes, including the game-winning score with less than 90 seconds remaining. Oakland has endured several ups and downs at home, losing three of five times at the Black Hole, as Jack Del Rio’s squad has split four games in the role of a home underdog.

[StarDust Bum]

Essential Week 13 betting notes for NFL Sunday

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in football, winning five straight, while covering the spread in each game.

New York Jets at New York Giants (+2, 46.5)

* Cornerback Darrelle Revis is expected to miss his second straight game due to a concussion. "Just got to move on," Odell Beckham Jr. said of missing out on the matchup. "We've still got to play the Jets. It would have been fun to go against a guy like that, and it's unfortunate that he's not playing, but maybe we'll get that matchup down the road. We're still focused on playing the Jets. This is a game we need to win."

* Chris Ivory recorded his third score in four weeks with a 31-yard scamper to seal the win last week and faces a Giants' rushing defense that is yielding 100.5 yards per contest (4.1 yards per carry). On the other side of the ball, the top-ranked Jets' rush defense set a franchise record by limiting the Dolphins to just 12 yards on the ground last week and faces a Giants' rushing attack that is 28th in the league.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+4, 43)

* Impressive victories over Arizona and Seattle were part of a 4-3 (4-3 ATS) start for the St. Louis Rams, who then fell off with a four-game losing streak (0-3-1 ATS).

* Rookie running back David Johnson is expected to take over for Chris Johnson and Ellington as the team’s top option in the backfield, and the team doesn’t expect much drop off. “I think running back is one of the easier ones (to replace),” coach Bruce Arians told reporters.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Pick, 46)

* The Falcons kept pace with Carolina in the NFC South for a month, winning their first five games and six of their first seven (4-3 ATS) before enduring a four-game skid (0-4 ATS) that prompted a players-only meeting on Monday. “I think that’s a good part of a team, to have good, solid leadership, guys that voice stuff to get it all going in the same direction,” quarterback Matt Ryan told reporters.

* Atlanta’s losing streak began with a 23-20 overtime loss at home against Tampa Bay in Week 8, starting a string of three wins in five games (3-2 ATS) for the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay had its two-game winning streak snapped with a 25-12 loss at Indianapolis last week but is just one game behind Atlanta and Seattle for the second wild card.

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (+2, 42)

* The Seahawks, usually known for their defense, have been riding their offense to victories as of late, averaging 33.33 points per game over their last three contests, cashing the over in each.

* After having their streak of eight consecutive covers in a row snapped, the Vikings cashed once again for bettors last week, topping the Atlanta Falcons 20-10 as 2-point road dogs. They are the second best bet in the NFL this season at 9-2 ATS.

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 41.5)

* The resurgent Texans defense has allowed just 7.25 points per game during their four game winning streak, covering the spread in each.

* Time is running out for Buffalo, which may be further short-handed against the Texans, as defensive end Mario Williams remains questionable with a foot injury and Kyle Williams was placed on injured reserve on Tuesday.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 42)

* "December football is when football matters, and we’re relevant in December," said Ravens coach John Harbaugh, who owns a perfect 5-0 (5-0 ATS) record versus the Dolphins. "That's what we needed to be."

* Although it shares the same 4-7 mark as Baltimore, Miami hasn't shown much fight lately with losses in two straight and four of its last five. Ryan Tannehill threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns in Miami's 38-20 setback to the AFC East-rival New York Jets last Sunday, with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor being relieved of his duties the following day.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+8.5, 43.5)

* After a short two-game losing streak, the Bengals got back on track last Sunday, thumping the Rams 31-7. Even despite the loses the Bengals remained the league's best bet at 9-1-1 ATS this season.

* The quarterback carousel made yet another turn this week as Pettine announced that Austin Davis will be the 24th starter for the club since 1999. "He deserves this opportunity," Pettine said of the 26-year-old Davis, who gets the nod after Josh McCown broke his right collarbone on Monday while former Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel tries to escape the doghouse.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 43.5)

* The Jaguars, just 1-4 (3-2 ATS) on the road, are paced by quarterback Blake Bortles, who has thrown 22 touchdowns but 13 often-costly interceptions.

* Tennessee is 0-6 (2-4 ATS) at home on the season and has lost 11 straight at the not-so-friendly confines in Nashville. The Titans’ last home win was a 16-13 decision over the Jaguars in Week 6 of last season.

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-7.5, 43)

* The San Francisco 49ers seek their first road win of the season when they visit the home-challenged Chicago Bears on Sunday. San Francisco fell to 0-5 (1-4 ATS) away from Levi's Stadium in Week 11, when it suffered a 29-13 setback against Seattle.

* Chicago dropped to 1-4 (2-3 ATS) at Soldier Field with Week 11's 17-15 loss to Denver. The Bears also have had trouble scoring recently, recording 15 and 17 points in their last two games, but are coming off a four-point win at Green Bay that put them in position to get to .500 for the first time since they were 3-3 on Oct. 12, 2014.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+3.5, 43)

* Brock Osweiler has stepped in for an ineffective and injured future Hall of Fame quarterback and has righted the ship for the Denver Broncos. Osweiler will look to lead the AFC West-leading Broncos to their third straight victory when they visit the division cellar-dwelling San Diego Chargers on Sunday.

* While Denver is making decisions with an eye on the postseason, San Diego simply was happy to snap a six-game skid with a 31-25 victory at Jacksonville last week. Philip Rivers threw for four touchdowns in that contest, but has tossed 10 interceptions while losing six of his last seven meetings with his AFC West rival.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (+3, 44.5)

* After losing five of its first six contests this season, Kansas City has gone on a winning streak that reached five games with a 30-22 triumph over Buffalo in Week 12, covering the spread in each of those games.

* The Raiders, who are looking to reach the .500 mark in the month of December for the first time since 2011, have lost three of their last four meetings with the Chiefs.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (+6.5, 50)

* The Carolina Panthers have won 15 consecutive regular season games dating back to Dec. 7, 2014, going 11-4 ATS in that stretch. They are 5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season.

* The Saints have lost three straight, failing to cover in each of those games, following a three-game winning streak and are coming off a 24-6 defeat at Houston.

Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-8.5, 49)

* While the absence of Sam Bradford may partially explain the three-game skid (0-3 ATS), Philadelphia's defense has been shredded for 45 points in each of the last two games by a pair of offenses that rank among the bottom half in the league.

* The Patriots' bid for a perfect season was derailed in an overtime defeat at Denver last week, but they have gone 56 consecutive regular-season games without suffering back-to-back defeats.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, 49)

* The 40-year-old Hasselbeck has been a savior while subbing for an injured Andrew Luck, improving to 4-0 after guiding Indianapolis to a 25-12 win over Tampa Bay last week.

* The Steelers got a scare of their own at quarterback when Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of last weekend's loss at Seattle with a concussion, but he received medical clearance this week. Pittsburgh is among four AFC teams tied with 6-5 records battling for the final two postseason slots.

[StarDust Bum]

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 6

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYJ at NYG 01:00 PM

NYG +2.5 *****

U 46.0 *****


ARI at STL 01:00 PM

ARI -3.5 DOUBLE PLAY

U 43.0


ATL at TB 01:00 PM

TB +1.0 TRIPLE PLAY

O 46.0


SEA at MIN 01:00 PM

MIN +2.5 DOUBLE PLAY

O 43.0 DOUBLE PLAY


HOU at BUF 01:00 PM

BUF -3.0 BLOW OUT

U 42.0


BAL at MIA 01:00 PM

MIA -3.5 TRIPLE PLAY

O 43.0 TRIPLE PLAY


CIN at CLE 01:00 PM

CIN -7.5 TRIPLE PLAY

U 43.5


JAC at TEN 01:00 PM

TEN -3.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 43.5


SF at CHI 01:00 PM

SF +6.5 TRIPLE PLAY

O 42.5 TRIPLE PLAY


DEN at SD 04:05 PM

DEN -6.0 BLOW OUT

O 44.5 BLOW OUT


KC at OAK 04:05 PM

OAK +3.0 DOUBLE PLAY

U 45.0


CAR at NO 04:25 PM

CAR -6.5 TRIPLE PLAY

U 50.0 TRIPLE PLAY


PHI at NE 04:25 PM

NE -8.0 DOUBLE PLAY

O 49.0

[StarDust Bum]

IND at PIT 08:30 PM

PIT -9.5 TRIPLE PLAY

O 50.5 *****

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Monday, December 7

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Monday Night Football Betting Preview: Dallas at Washington
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Washington will have sole possesion of first place in the NFC East if they can find a way to defeat rival Dallas on Monday Night Football.

Dallas at Washington (-3.5, 42)

Few teams have a wider disparity in their performance between home and away games than Washington, who look to maintain at least a share of the lead in the NFC East when they host the division-rival Dallas Cowboys on Monday night. Washington extended their home winning streak to five games with last week's 20-14 win over the New York Giants to grab a share of first place in the division.

Washington's last three road defeats have come by a total of 59 points, including a 44-16 thumping at Carolina before last week's bounce-back victory. ''I'm proud of the team to be in this position, how hard they worked, how much they've overcome from a week-to-week basis," Washington coach Jay Gruden said. The Cowboys are still in position to contend for the NFC East title, sitting only two games back of Washington despite their 3-8 record. The road got considerably tougher, however, when Tony Romo refractured his collarbone in a Thanksgiving Day loss to Carolina.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 4-point home favorites and have been bet down slightly to the current number of -3.5. The total has remained at its opening number of 42.

INJURY REPORT:

Dallas - WR D. Bryant (probable Monday, knee), CB M. Claiborne (probable Monday, hamstring), OL C. Green (questionable Monday, hip), WR B. Butler (questionable Monday, hamstring), QB T. Romo (out for season, collarbone).

Washington - S D. Goldson (probable Monday, knee), WR D. Jackson (probable Monday, illness), WR A. Roberts (questionable Monday, knee), DL C. Baker (questionable Monday, illness), DE J. Hatcher (questionable Monday, knee), RB C. Thompson (questionable Monday, shoulder), LB P. Riley (questionable Monday, foot), LB K. Robinson (questionable Monday, shoulder), CB D. Everett (questionable Monday, hamstring), TE D. Carrier (questionable Monday, ankle).

WEATHER REPORT: It will be mostly cloudy at kickoff with a slight 14 percent chance of rain. There will also be a five-to-seven mile per hour wind blowing towards the southeastern end zone. Temperatures should be in the mid 40's.

POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (+3) - Washington (+1) + home field (-3) = Washington -5

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-8, 3-8 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Matt Cassel will be back at quarterback for Dallas, which lost all seven games when Romo was sidelined the first time - including four starts with Cassel under center. The Cowboys could do little against Carolina, getting 11 yards on 10 carries from Darren McFadden and two catches for 26 yards from Dez Bryant while being held to 14 points or fewer for the fourth time in the last seven contests. Dallas' defense is eighth overall with an average of 332 yards allowed per game, but it has forced a league-worst seven turnovers.

ABOUT WASHINGTON (5-6, 5-6 ATS, 5-6 O/U): Like his team, quarterback Kirk Cousins is a different quarterback at FedEx Field, throwing for 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions while compiling a passer rating of 121.2 during the five-game home winning streak. DeSean Jackson has a catch of at least 42 yards in three consecutive games while tight end Jordan Reed remains Cousins' favorite target with a career-high 55 receptions and six touchdowns. The ground game has been inconsistent and the defense has been up and down, although it has held four opponents to 14 points or fewer at home.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Dallas is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
* Dallas is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Washington.
* Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Washington.

CONSENSUS: A good majority of bettors are backing Washington in this NFC East showdown, with 63 percent wagers on them. As for the total, 65 percent of wagers are on the over.

[StarDust Bum]

MNF - Cowboys at Redskins
December 7, 2015

The NFC East race is turning into a slugfest to the finish and not in a positive way. Not one of the four teams in this division owns a record above .500, as the Redskins own a slim half-game lead over the Giants and Eagles heading into tonight’s matchup with the Cowboys. The Giants squandered a 20-10 halftime lead in an overtime loss to the Jets to fall to 5-7, while the Eagles woke up from the dead by stunning New England to improve to 5-7.

Amazingly, Washington (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) hasn’t won consecutive games all season but reside in first place of the NFC East. The Redskins picked up a season split with the Giants last Sunday in a 20-14 victory as one-point home underdogs. Kirk Cousins threw for 302 yards, including a 63-yard touchdown strike to DeSean Jackson as Washington improved to 5-1 this season at FedEx Field. In four of six home games this season, the Redskins have allowed 17 points or less, resulting in a 4-2 mark to the ‘under.’

Since Tony Romo broke his collarbone in a Week 2 win at Philadelphia, the Cowboys (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS) have been mired in a 1-8 slump the past nine weeks. Dallas lost seven straight games while Romo was sidelined as Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel couldn’t get the Cowboys in the win column. Of course when Romo returned to the lineup in Week 11 at Miami, the Cowboys snapped their skid in a 24-14 victory.

However, Romo re-injured his collarbone and exited a 33-14 Thanksgiving home loss to undefeated Carolina as the Panthers returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns. There weren’t many positives to come out of that loss, as Romo was picked off three times before getting hurt, while the Cowboys rushed for 31 yards on 14 carries against the stout Carolina defense. The home field has been no advantage for Jason Garrett’s club, who has dropped five consecutive games at AT&T Stadium since rallying past the Giants in the season opener.

Cassel will start in place of Romo for the foreseeable future, as the journeyman quarterback is 0-4 this season in four starts for Dallas. The last time Cassel won a start came in Week 1 of last season as a member of the Vikings against the Rams, while his previous outing of throwing for at least 300 yards came back in 2013 in a 382-yard performance against Philadelphia.

The Cowboys and Redskins are meeting up for the first time this season as these two rivals will hook up in Texas for the season finale in Week 17. Last season, the road team captured each meeting, as Cousins never faced the Cowboys. Colt McCoy led the Redskins as nine-point road underdogs in a 20-17 overtime victory last October, a game in which Romo suffered a back injury late in regulation. Romo returned for the rematch in Washington in December, as the Cowboys routed the Redskins, 44-17 as six-point favorites. The Redskins are favored for only the second time in the last 11 meetings with the Cowboys, as Washington beat Dallas as 3-point chalk, 28-18 in Week 17 of the 2012 season.

The underdogs continue their domination on Monday night football this season by owning a spectacular 10-2-1 ATS record, capped off by Baltimore’s last-second victory over Cleveland last week. Five road underdogs have won outright on Monday night this season, including three of the last four weeks (Chicago – Week 9, Houston – Week 10, Baltimore – Week 12). The ‘under’ started on a 10-2 run on Mondays, but the ‘over’ of 41 ½ easily hit in Baltimore’s 33-27 triumph over Cleveland.

Both Washington and Dallas haven’t appeared on Monday night football this season, as the Redskins have stumbled to a 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS record on Mondays since 2008. Jay Gruden’s club split a pair of Monday nighters last season, including the overtime victory at Dallas, but the Redskins have lost seven of the last eight at home on Monday night. The Cowboys have dropped three of their previous four on Mondays since 2010, while playing on the road on Monday night football for the first time since edging Buffalo back in 2007.

Since the start of the 2014 campaign, the Cowboys have put together a 4-4 ATS record in the role of a road underdog, which includes a 2-2 ATS mark against division foes. Dallas has been a nearly automatic ‘under’ play away from AT&T Stadium this season, cashing the ‘under’ in four of five tries, while limiting four opponents to 20 points or less in regulation.

The Redskins opened as four-point favorites at most books, are dipping down to 3 ½-point chalk at several outlets. The total is set between 42 and 42 ½, as many bettors will probably look to a low-scoring affair without Romo playing and Washington’s strong defensive showing at home this season. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on ESPN.

[StarDust Bum]

NFC East heats up MNF
December 4, 2015


DALLAS COWBOYS (3-8) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (5-6)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Washington -4.5, Total: 42

The Redskins will be looking to keep themselves atop the NFC East standings when they host the Cowboys on Monday night.

Dallas has had a miserable season and things will not be getting much better either. The Cowboys started the year off 2-0 and have since lost eight of their past nine games. Matt Cassel is entrenched as the team’s starting quarterback for the remainder of the season and the Cowboys have not won a single game with a quarterback other than Tony Romo under center this year.

The Redskins have won three of their past five games SU and two of their past three ATS. Washington is currently in first place in the NFC East and will be looking forward to this extremely winnable meeting with Dallas. The Cowboys have, however, won three of the four meetings between these teams over the past three seasons SU and that includes wins in both games in Washington.

Dallas enters this contest 15-3 ATS in road games after trailing in its previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. That bodes well for the team, as it is also up against a Washington squad that is 4-13 ATS in home games when playing on Monday night in that span.

The Cowboys are not completely dysfunctional on both sides of the ball. They have a middle of the pack defense, allowing 23.7 PPG (18th in NFL) on the season. The problem for Dallas is really that the team is averaging just 18.5 PPG (29th in NFL). This Cowboys offense has been plagued by a lack of productivity at the quarterback position and that will not change with Tony Romo out of the lineup.

If Dallas is going to win some games the rest of the way, it will be thanks to the legs of Darren McFadden. The Cowboys still have one of the best offensive lines in football, so they will be looking to pound away at Washington on Monday night. McFadden has rushed for 634 yards with two touchdowns on the season and he has added 31 receptions for 257 yards in the receiving game. He did rush for just 11 yards on 10 carries in a blowout loss to Carolina last week and will likely need to rush for at least 100 yards if Dallas will have any shot at coming away with a road upset.

The Redskins have a golden opportunity to improve to 6-6 on the season and keep themselves atop the NFC East, but this team will need to play some mistake-free football. Kirk Cousins has thrown for 2,787 yards with 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, but he is prone to throwing some awful picks. If he can make high percentage throws and take good care of the ball then his team will be in an excellent position to win.

Another guy who will need to avoid letting the ball get in Dallas’ hands is Matt Jones. Jones is an explosive runner for this Redskins team, racking up a total of 618 yards rushing and receiving and also punching in four total touchdowns. He has, however, fumbled the ball six times and he has lost four of those. He will need to grip the rock tight and make sure he does not lose it on Monday. Ball security combined with the Redskins shutting down the run would likely mean that the team comes away as a winner in this game.