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**StarDust Bum** · 12-01-2015, 05:38 PM

Close Calls - Week 12
December 1, 2015

Each week a handful of NFL games go down to the wire not only on the scoreboard but relative to the pointspread.

Here is a look at last week’s outcome impacting fourth quarters in Week 12 of the NFL season with a handful of games that were very close to finishing with a different result.

Washington Redskins (+1) 20, New York Giants 14: After a scoreless first quarter Washington finally took advantage of some extra opportunities, taking a 17-0 lead at the half. The third quarter was also scoreless and Washington built the lead to 20-0 early in the fourth quarter. The Giants hit a big play to find the end zone with 10 minutes to go to leave a glimmer of hope for the Giants. With about five minutes to go Odell Beckham made a spectacular touchdown catch to get the Giants within six. Washington picked up two big first downs to run off most of the clock but they still had to punt back to the Giants. New York had just 19 seconds and eventually resorted to a multiple-lateral desperation play which did gain some yardage but ultimately had no real shot to deliver the miracle win.

Oakland Raiders (PK) 24, Tennessee Titans 21: Oakland took a 17-6 lead in the third quarter but the Titans were able to answer with a touchdown and a two-point conversion to get within three points. There was an exchange of turnovers and two exchanges of punts as the scoring halted but an Oakland fumble in the fourth quarter gave the Titans great field position. The Titans made the most of it with a touchdown to take the lead with fewer than five minutes to go in the game.

Oakland moved into Tennessee territory on its next drive but down four the Raiders needed a touchdown. Just after the two-minute warning Oakland faced 4th-and-8 and an incompletion seemed to end the game but the Titans were flagged for defensive holding in a debatable call in a critical moment. The Raiders cashed in two plays later for the touchdown to lead by three and a late drive from the Titans that was just short of field goal range in the final minute wound up with an interception. The late score from the Raiders also forced a push on the total for many and got the ‘over’ home for those that had a number below 45.

Kansas City Chiefs (-4½) 30, Buffalo Bills 22: The Chiefs fell behind 10-0 hosting Buffalo but they managed to get within two by halftime. Kansas City added 10 points early in the third quarter taking advantage of a costly fumble by Tyrod Taylor. The Bills answered with a touchdown drive that featured a key roughing the passer penalty but the two-point conversion failed to leave the Chiefs with a two-point lead by the start of the fourth quarter. The Chiefs added a field goal early in the fourth quarter to make it a five-point margin, in between an early week spread that was as high as -6½ and a closing number of -4½. With less than four minutes to go Kansas City had another productive drive to add three more points to make it an eight-point margin and Buffalo’s final drive didn’t produce much of an opportunity to tie the game.

Arizona Cardinals (-7) 19, San Francisco 49ers 13: Arizona pulled ahead 13-3 early in the third quarter as a heavy road favorite with the line dropping from as high as -11½ and closing at just -7. San Francisco answered with two strong drives led by Blaine Gabbert and this NFC West matchup entered the fourth quarter with a 13-13 tie. Arizona wound up delivering an eight-minute drive riddled with penalties including a highly questionable roughing the passer call, eventually scoring on a Carson Palmer scramble with just over two minutes to go. The extra-point was missed however which was critical to those on the game with the late afternoon touchdown number. San Francisco made a decent final drive to reach the Arizona 30-yard line but that was as far as the 49ers got.

Seattle Seahawks (-3) 39, Pittsburgh Steelers 30: Pittsburgh led most of the first half Sunday afternoon, moving the ball with ease but also having costly turnovers. A four-point lead at the break turned into seven points in the third quarter but Seattle answered seemingly to tie the game but the extra-point attempt was blocked to leave the Steelers ahead by one. After a Ben Roethlisberger interception early in the fourth quarter the Seahawks cashed in with a touchdown drive aided by a questionable unnecessary roughness penalty but going for two the Seahawks failed and it was a 26-21 lead. The Steelers connected on a 69-yard pass play minutes later to take the lead back but also failed on the two-point conversion to lead 27-26.

Seattle connected for a few short passes and broke free for a 30 yard touchdown, again missing going for two to lead 32-27 with eight minutes to go with a home favorite spread that slipped from as high as -5½ down to just -3 by kickoff. Surviving a big play getting overturned on a close replay review the Steelers still drove down into the red zone in the final minutes. Reaching 1st-and-goal the Steelers had back-to-back incomplete passes and on 3rd down Roethlisberger scrambled and collided down at the 3-yard line. With exactly three minutes to go and only two timeouts the Steelers opted to kick a field goal, good news for those on the underdog but a questionable move if the Steelers wanted to win the game.

Seattle ran twice and survived a fumble ahead of the two-minute warning and a on 3rd-and-10 with a first down effectively ending the game the Seahawks got the yardage needed and then some as Doug Baldwin broke two tackles and sprinted 80 yards for a touchdown to put Seattle up by nine.

Those on the underdog still had hope as Pittsburgh had moved the ball with ease the whole game while actually setting a passing yardage record against Seattle but Ben Roethlisberger didn’t come back on the field with a possible concussion, leaving Landry Jones in charge. The Steelers picked up 34 yards in two plays to reach midfield but a deep pass attempt was intercepted near the sidelines on the next throw. It was a contentious review process with CBS expert Mike Carey asserting the call would be overturned and ruled an incompletion but the call stood and the game ended in painful fashion for those on the underdog Steelers.

Denver Broncos (+2½) 30, New England Patriots 24: New England took a 21-7 lead early in the fourth quarter but the Broncos rallied with a touchdown and a field goal to get within four, within a score but short of the home underdog spread. New England attempted to burn some clock but on 3rd-and-5 a first down completion to Rob Gronkowski was taken away with a borderline offensive pass interference call. Denver had to punt on its next possession but they wasted little time and after New England was stopped again the Broncos and Brock Osweiler had the ball back ahead of the two-minute warning though without a timeout.

After a mostly frustrating night Demaryius Thomas was hit for a big play to get the Broncos to midfield and another connection Emmanuel Sanders was good for 39 yards as the Broncos were on the New England 8-yard line with a chance to win the game. A defensive holding call put Denver closer and Osweiler delivered the go-ahead score with a short pass. Tom Brady still had just over a minute and with a few quick passes and a penalty the Patriots were in range for Stephen Gostkowski who was good from 47 yards to force overtime. New England went first in overtime but had a costly sack and had to punt but a decent return put the Broncos in good field position. On Denver’s possession the Broncos faced a key 3rd-and-short just past midfield and C.J. Anderson broke a 48-yard run for the win.

Baltimore Ravens (+6) 33, Cleveland Browns 27: The Monday game may not have had great meaning in the playoff picture but there were plenty of exciting plays with a punt return and an interception return touchdown. Cleveland led 20-17 in the third quarter which would have been enough most of the week on a spread that climbed from even to -2 and -2½ before leaping past 3 and all the way to -6 by kickoff. Baltimore scored a touchdown late in the third quarter and added a field goal early in the fourth quarter to lead by seven.

Getting the ball back with about four minutes to go the Browns behind Austin Davis faced a 4th-and-5 play in their own zone just ahead of the two-minute warning. Cleveland converted to keep the drive alive and a few plays later connected for 42 yard and the tying score to Travis Benjamin. The teams traded punts and Baltimore had the ball back with just under a minute to go. Disaster struck as Matt Schaub was intercepted giving the Browns the ball just past midfield. A few short gains gave Cleveland a shot at about a 50-yard field goal but the kick was blocked and recovered by the Ravens with Will Hill running it back for the game-winning touchdown.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-01-2015, 05:40 PM

NFL Week 13 Essentials
December 1, 2015

It’s time for December football. While a lot of teams fell on their face after Thanksgiving, others rose to the occasion as we come the final four weeks of action. Playoffs spots are up for grabs and there’s a lot to be determined, so let’s get right into Week 13:

Thursday, Dec. 3

Green Bay at Detroit: The Lions have actually won more over the last five weeks than the Packers have, which includes an 18-16 victory in Green Bay on Nov. 15. The offense got it going on Thanksgiving day against Philadelphia, as Matthew Stafford threw a season-high five touchdown passes and hasn’t been picked off in consecutive games for the first time in 2015. Aaron Rodgers said he lost feeling in his fingers on his left hand during the second half of Thursday night’s loss to the Bears, throwing a pick for only the fourth time this season. Not only are these are teams headed in opposite directions, but the Packers also carry a two-game losing streak in Detroit into Ford Field despite being installed as the favorite.

Sunday, Nov. 6

San Francisco at Chicago: The 49ers have been playing ugly football all season, riding their defense to compensate for their lack of a competent quarterback. Blaine Gabbert is 1-2 as the starter in place of the ineffective Colin Kaepernick, but has faced three strong defensive units in Atlanta, Seattle and Arizona. He’s also been working without Carlos Hyde, who has missed four games with a stress fracture in his foot that will likely keep him out again. The Bears got Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery back on Thursday and are excited to get their full complement of weapons working with rookie RB Jeremy Langford and TEs Martellus Bennett and Zach Miller, who took advantage of additional opportunities in their absence. A win would get John Fox’s team to .500, unexpectedly into the playoff chase, albeit as a longshot. Chicago has won three of four outright and is 6-1-1 ATS over its past eight.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: The Bengals snapped their two-game losing streak with an impressive 31-7 win over the Rams and are hoping to get back in the mix for a first-round bye in the AFC playoff picture. They travel to Denver on Dec. 28, so they’ll likely control their own destiny unless the beginning of the month goes horribly wrong. Once again, it looks like they might get a full game against a backup, since Josh McCown took a vicious hit that knocked him out Monday night and leaves his availability in question for this one. Johnny Manziel took all of the snaps in a 31-10 loss on Nov. 5, but he’s fallen out of favor for disciplinary reasons, which means Austin Davis may get the nod to try and end a six-game losing streak. He looked good in rallying the Browns to a potential game-winning field goal after hitting Travis Benjamin to tie the game, so he might give Cleveland a puncher’s chance to gain a series split with their in-state rival for the fourth straight season. The Bengals are worried about not having TE Tyler Eifert, who suffered a stringer against St. Louis and is questionable. He leads the NFL with 12 touchdowns.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: With the Colts and Ravens both now over .500, the dreams these two had of unexpectedly contending down the stretch have been dashed, so this instead will be another learning opportunity for young QBs Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota, who each had spotty performances in last week’s losses as well as in their meeting two weeks ago, a 19-13 Jags win. Mariota had his receiving corps strengthened by Kendall Wright’s return, while Bortles lost Allen Hurns to scary-looking concussion after he was carted off on Sunday. Jacksonville is looking for its first series sweep of the Titans since 2005. The teams have split every year since ’08.

Houston at Buffalo: The Bills blew a game they had dominated throughout most of the first half in Kansas City, so they’re looking at this one as a must-win at home. Rex Ryan’s defense is banged up considerably, as LB Nigel Bradham and DT Alex Harrington each left the Chiefs loss with injuries, further depleting a group already playing without key linemen Mario Williams and Kyle Williams. The Texans have won four straight to climb into a first-place tie with Indianapolis in the AFC South, surrendering just 6 points in three of those victories. The under is 3-1 during their streak as a result, while J.J. Watt has recorded 9.5 sacks over his last five contests, notching at least one each time out. He’ll be facing the most mobile starter in the NFL in Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor.

Baltimore at Miami: The never-say-die Ravens head to South Florida for a date with a disappointing Dolphins team that has said die rather easily in recent weeks, losing four of five in disheartening fashion. The lack of growth Ryan Tannehill has made cost offensive coordinator Bill Lazor his job on Monday, as interim Miami head coach Dan Campbell will rely on QB coach Zac Taylor to take over the play-calling. WR Jarvis Landry set career-highs with 13 catches for 165 yards against the Jets, so expect him to be a focus of the Ravens defensive game plan. Baltimore moved to 4-7 by blocking a Cleveland field goal attempt and watching Will Hill run it back 64 yards for a 33-27 win, giving his team consecutive victories for the first time all season. Matt Schaub started for the first time since ’13 and had some good moments, but threw a pair of costly interceptions, the Achilles heel that cost him his job in Houston.

Seattle at Minnesota: The Seahawks secondary may just have to lose that Legion of Boom moniker since teams are throwing on them at will. The defense surrendered their third 30-point game of the season in Sunday’s win over Pittsburgh, something that hadn’t happened since 2011, Pete Carroll’s second season at the controls. Russell Wilson bailed the team out with a huge passing day, but no longer has top tight end Jimmy Graham as a target since he’s done with a patella tendon tear. Although Graham has had a down year, he still had to be accounted for, which will make life easier for a talented Vikings defense that won in Atlanta despite the absence of top tackler Harrison Smith (knee). The Vikings hope to get their star safety back on Sunday and have seen the under go 9-1-1 in their games this season. RB Adrian Peterson is coming off his second multi-TD game of ’15 and has ran for over 100 yards in four of the last five.

Arizona at St. Louis: The Cardinals struggled with San Francisco, but moved to 9-2 and maintained a healthy three-game lead over victorious Seattle. They’ll be looking to avenge their lone home loss, a 24-22 setback on Oct. 2 way back in Week 4. Running backs Chris Johnson (knee) and Andre Ellington (toe) were each injured on Sunday, so Arizona should be shorthanded against a typically stingy Rams defense that was conquered at Cincinnati. Carson Palmer will definitely see that the Bengals attacked St. Louis’ corners with aggressive downfield passes, so he could be in for a big day. The Rams pass rush has definitely missed Robert Quinn, who is dealing with a hip injury. The under is 8-3 in games involving St. Louis, but its win in Glendale did surpass the posted total.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons continued their implosion with a 20-10 home loss to Minnesota and have lost four consecutive games as they visit the Bucs, the team against who the streak of setbacks began. Turnovers in the red zone were the issue in that 23-20 loss and have continued to haunt Atlanta. Matt Ryan has thrown five interceptions in his last two outings, but did throw for a season-high 397 in the first meeting. His life will be made much easier if Devonta Freeman, who has scored 11 TDs in just 10 games, clears concussion protocol and returns to action. Jameis Winston and the Bucs are back at 5-6, so they’ll need to hold serve at home in order to realistically remain in the playoff hunt. They’re 5-2 ATS over the last seven but haven’t swept the Falcons since ’07, way back when Jon Gruden was still coaching. Tampa Bay is 2-12 in its last 14 home games.

N.Y. Jets at N.Y. Giants: After snapping a two-game losing streak in emphatic fashion against rival Miami, the Jets face their Met Life Stadium co-tenants in a game both need badly. The Giants put together an embarrassing effort in a 20-14 loss at Washington where they couldn’t overcome an early 17-0 deficit due to three Eli Manning interceptions. Odell Beckham Jr. shined with nine catches for 142 yards and a score and will likely have to deal with Darrelle Revis, who missed the Dolphins win with concussion symptoms but should make it through protocol in order to play. Replacement Marcus Williams has five interceptions, so they’ll be well-stocked in the secondary if Revis and safety Dion Bailey return. These teams meet every year in the preseason, but they’ve only played three regular-season games since 2000, all Giants wins. The Jets carry a five-game losing streak in the series and haven’t won since 1993.

Denver at San Diego: It appears Brock Osweiler will make his third straight start in place of Peyton Manning, having delivered tight victories at Chicago and home against New England on Sunday night, snapping the Patriots perfect run. He’ll go in search of his first divisional win against the Chargers, who snapped a string of six consecutive losses with a 31-25 win at Jacksonville. Philip Rivers continues to work behind a makeshift offensive line and without top target Keenan Allen, but managed to throw for 300 yards and four touchdown on the Jaguars. The Broncos defense missed numerous tackles against New England, but it should help them to not be playing in a snowstorm. They’re unlikely to get pass rusher DeMarcus Ware (6.5 sacks in seven games) in the lineup since he’s still struggling with a back injury. These teams also meet on the final week of the regular season.

Kansas City at Oakland: Continuing the AFC West theme, the Chiefs and Raiders square off in one of the most meaningful games they’ve played in years since the Raiders haven't been in contention in a while. Both are in the Wild Card hunt at this late stage and coming off comeback victories in Week 12. Alex Smith threw for a pair of scores against Buffalo and hasn’t been intercepted in eight straight games, the last five of which have been K.C. wins. There’s concern over the availability of top pass rusher Justin Houston, who sprained a knee in Sunday’s win. Oakland improved to 3-3 and on the road as Derek Carr hit Seth Roberts with 1:21 left to come up with a 24-21 win in Tennessee, part of a 330-yard, 3-touchdown performance. Rookie WR Amari Cooper shook off his worst outing of the season and caught seven passes for 115 yards against the Titans. The over is 6-3-2 in Oakland games.

Carolina at New Orleans: The NFL’s lone undefeated team will look to stay perfect at the Superdome, where they’ve had success where most haven’t over the years. Last season’s game there ended up 41-10, but Drew Brees has been formidable at home this season, throwing 14 touchdowns and just four interceptions. The Panthers will be the more rested team, having rolled over Dallas last Thursday, but have injury concerns since defensive linemen Star Lotulelei and Mario Addison were each hurt against the Cowboys and corner Peanut Tillman sat out with a nagging knee ailment. Cam Newton gets another look at the league’s worst defense, who he torched for a season-high 315 yards in a 27-22 win back on Sept. 27. Despite not throwing for a touchdown on Thanksgiving, he ran for one and has now accounted for 27 on the season. New defensive coordinator Dennis Allen didn’t have much success in his first game as Rob Ryan’s replacement as the Texans scored 24 points in three quarters before concentrating on running out the clock. Brees failed to throw a TD for the first time in 46 games and the Saints failed to find the end zone for the first time in 156 games, a decade-long span.

Philadelphia at New England: In spite of a woeful run that has seen them outscored 110-50 in losses to sub-.500 teams Miami, Tampa Bay and Detroit, the Eagles remain just one game behind the NFC East leaders. Head coach Chip Kelly has been rightfully getting crushed over as his Eagles appear to be quitting on the field. The offense has been missing QB Sam Bradford, RB Ryan Mathews and TE Zach Ertz due to concussions and added WR Josh Huff to that list of head injuries against the Lions. The Patriots will be coming off their first loss of the season and may be without TE Rob Gronkowski, who escaped a significant knee injury on Sunday night but will not be ready to play here. WR Danny Amendola may return to aid the offense, but Julian Edelman remains out indefinitely. New England’s defense has been without LB Jamie Collins and saw LB Dont’a Hightower also leave the Broncos loss with a sprained MCL. The Pats have won 24 of 25 home games including the playoffs over the last three years and haven’t lost to Philly since ’99, winning the last three meetings.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: Andrew Luck won’t be ready to return yet, but 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck moved to 4-0 as the Colts starter with another efficient performance in a home win over Tampa Bay. Indy has been better as a result of his quick decision-making, but he’ll likely have to bring his most productive game to the table to keep up with the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger self-reported concussion symptoms late in the loss to Seattle, so he’ll have to get through protocol to try and continue a run of three consecutive 300-yard passing games that raises his tally to five in his seven starts. He threw for 456 yards on a season-high 36 completions, so count on him doing whatever it takes to get back out there in a crucial Sunday night date for both of these 6-5 teams. The Steelers won last year’s meeting – also at Heinz Field – 51-34, as Roethlisberger shattered team records with completions (40), yards (522) and TD passes (6).

Monday, Dec. 7

Dallas at Washington: The Tony Romo show was brought to an abrupt end by the Carolina defense but the Cowboys haven’t won a single game without him and are in a situation where they can’t afford another loss if they want to salvage the season. Matt Cassel is back at the controls and will at least have a healthier Dez Bryant to work with. The ‘Skins considered last week a must-win and came through with a great performance against the N.Y. Giants, improving to 5-1 at home this season. The difference between Kirk Cousins in Landover and anywhere else has been remarkable, as he’s now thrown 11 TDs and 2 INTs at FedEx Field. The Cowboys have won three of the last four meetings in this series, but Washington is 1-13 in Monday night home games.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-01-2015, 05:42 PM

NFL oddsmakers give red-hot Lions plenty of respect versus Packers

The Lions have won three in a row SU and ATS but are still field-goal underdogs against the struggling Packers, who have lost three of their last four games.

A month ago, the Green Bay Packers were the toast of the NFC, and the talent-laden Detroit Lions were a mess.

Detroit got shellacked at Kansas City 45-10 as a 3-point pup on November 1. But on that same day, in the Sunday night game, Green Bay was dealt its first loss of the year, a 29-10 setback at Denver as a 2.5-point favorite.

Since then, the Packers have lost three of four games SU and ATS, while the Lions have won all three of their outings SU and ATS, including a stunning 18-16 win catching 10.5 points at Green Bay on November 15. On Thanksgiving Day, both teams played, with Detroit ripping Philadelphia 45-14 as a 3-point home fave and the Pack continuing to slide in a 17-13 home loss giving 7.5 points to Chicago.

Now, struggling Green Bay (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) heads to surging Detroit (4-7 SU and ATS) Thursday to kick off Week 13. John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, opened the Packers as 3-point chalk.

“Through the first two months of the season, we’d be looking to make the Packers double-digit chalk here, but things have changed drastically,” Lester said. “We’ll obviously see a ton of Green Bay money from the betting public, but I’m interested to see where the sharps stand. The Lions have looked more in sync and confident of late, but this will be a hungry Packers bunch.”

Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports for Wynn Las Vegas, gave Green Bay a little bit more of an edge.

“The Packers are struggling, and the Lions seem to have found their best stride,” Avello said. “I opened the Packers a 3.5-point favorite, and a lot of it was my gut telling me that both teams need to come back to reality.

New York Jets at New York Giants (Pick)

It’s a battle for Big Apple bragging rights, between two teams trying to find some playoff footing.

The Jets (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) rolled past Miami 38-20 Sunday as 4.5-point chalk, ending a two-game SU skid and a four-game ATS slide. The Giants (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) continued to allow the rest of the NFC to have some semblance of hope, losing to Washington 20-14 giving one point on the road Sunday.

“The Battle of New York may very well be the demise for one of these teams,” Avello said. “The Giants can afford the loss more, as they’d still only be one win away from claiming the top spot in the NFC East. Eli Manning is so Jekyll and Hyde, it’s difficult for both linemakers and bettors to figure this team out.”

Lester said the Jets have drawn the early sharp bettors.

“We’ll see no shortage of action for this huge Week 13 matchup at East Rutherford. It’s a classic tossup game,” he said. “The Jets have a slight edge as far as the power ratings, but we know we’ll be seeing a ton of support from the Giants’ faithful. The early, sharper action has come in on the J-E-T-S.”

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (Pick)

The Vikings continue to surprise the league, cashing for bettors and taking advantage of NFC North rival Green Bay’s slide. Minnesota (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) dropped Atlanta 20-10 Sunday as a 2-point road pup, moving to 6-1 SU in its last seven and 9-1 ATS in its last 10.

The Seahawks (6-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) kept themselves afloat in the playoff race by outlasting Pittsburgh 39-30 Sunday, covering as a 3-point home favorite. The two-time defending NFC champs have won four of their last five SU, but got some bad news in Sunday’s win, losing tight end Jimmy Graham for the season with a knee injury.

“Another game where it will be interesting to see where the bettors take this number,” Lester said. “Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson and the offense seem to be coming together at the right time. The Vikings will look to ride Adrian Peterson, but it’s likely that the Seahawks will stack the box and look to force Teddy Bridgewater into more throws than he’s accustomed to making.”

Avello moved slightly off the pick ‘em line.

“I opened Seattle a very small road favorite. Not because of their defense that we've all been believers in over the past few years, but because of their offensive production and overall experience against a young and still learning Teddy Bridgewater,” he said.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)

Indianapolis has managed to stay with Houston atop the AFC North, despite having to start 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck in place of injured Andrew Luck. On Sunday, the Colts (6-5 SU and ATS) topped Tampa Bay 25-12 laying three points at home.

Pittsburgh (6-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS), getting three points at Seattle, lost a shootout 39-30. Perhaps worse though, as the Steelers try to stay in the playoff picture, QB Ben Roethlisberger left late in the game with a possible concussion. With his status uncertain, the opening line on this game will have to wait.

“Ben Roethlisberger was so good this week at Seattle, it will be a shame if he doesn't play against the Colts on Sunday,” Avello said. “I haven't seen him that sharp in quite some time.”

Lester added that it’s almost old hat for the consistently banged-up Roethlisberger this year.

“It feels like every week, we’re waiting to hear about the status of Ben Roethlisberger, and this week will be no different as he goes through the concussion protocol,” he said. “Big Ben is worth at least a touchdown to the line, so if he isn’t available, it will greatly impact where we set this game. The Colts have come together a bit, but Matt Hasselbeck is going to lose at some point.”

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2015, 10:30 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 3

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GREEN BAY (7 - 4) at DETROIT (4 - 7) - 12/3/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
DETROIT is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 6

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SAN FRANCISCO (3 - 8) at CHICAGO (5 - 6) - 12/6/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (9 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 9) - 12/6/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (4 - 7) at TENNESSEE (2 - 9) - 12/6/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 4-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (6 - 5) at BUFFALO (5 - 6) - 12/6/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 7) at MIAMI (4 - 7) - 12/6/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (11 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (4 - 7) - 12/6/2015, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
CAROLINA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
CAROLINA is 53-29 ATS (+21.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 79-43 ATS (+31.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 53-25 ATS (+25.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 28-50 ATS (-27.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 5) at MINNESOTA (8 - 3) - 12/6/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
MINNESOTA is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (9 - 2) at ST LOUIS (4 - 7) - 12/6/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 147-186 ATS (-57.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 147-186 ATS (-57.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 105-146 ATS (-55.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 114-148 ATS (-48.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 4-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (6 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 6) - 12/6/2015, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (6 - 5) at NY GIANTS (5 - 6) - 12/6/2015, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 31-55 ATS (-29.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (9 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 8) - 12/6/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 4-1 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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KANSAS CITY (6 - 5) at OAKLAND (5 - 6) - 12/6/2015, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 39-75 ATS (-43.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-44 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 1) - 12/6/2015, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 5) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 5) - 12/6/2015, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 7

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DALLAS (3 - 8) at WASHINGTON (5 - 6) - 12/7/2015, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 30-50 ATS (-25.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 54-86 ATS (-40.6 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 78-106 ATS (-38.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 78-106 ATS (-38.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in home games when playing on Monday night since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 78-106 ATS (-38.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2015, 10:31 PM

NFL

Week 13

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, December 3

8:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 9 games on the road
Green Bay is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Sunday, December 6

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 1:00 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. CHICAGO
San Francisco is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
San Francisco is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
Chicago is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games when playing San Francisco

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI
Baltimore is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. TENNESSEE
Jacksonville is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Jacksonville is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee is 2-19 SU in its last 21 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. MINNESOTA
Seattle is 4-8-2 ATS in its last 14 games
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cleveland is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing Cincinnati

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games at home

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. NY GIANTS
NY Jets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Jets are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. BUFFALO
Houston is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. ST. LOUIS
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Arizona's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of St. Louis's last 15 games when playing Arizona
St. Louis is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing Arizona

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 4:05 PM
DENVER vs. SAN DIEGO
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 8-11-4 ATS in its last 23 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 4:05 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
Kansas City is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Kansas City's last 20 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Oakland's last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Oakland's last 20 games when playing Kansas City

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 4:25 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games at home
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 4:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Carolina
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina

See more trends!
DECEMBER 6, 8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. PITTSBURGH
Indianapolis is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Indianapolis's last 18 games
Pittsburgh is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Pittsburgh is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis

Monday, December 7

See more trends!
DECEMBER 7, 8:30 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Dallas

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2015, 10:36 PM

Trends to Watch - December
December 2, 2015

With Thanksgiving now in the rear view mirror and Santa charting his annual course, it’s onto the stretch-run of the 2015 NFL season.

Before backing teams on the blind it might serve you well to read up on the trends and tendencies of teams from December past. With that being said, here is this year’s list of good and bad teams to keep an eye n this month,

HOME TEAMS

Good: Seattle will be making its playoff push and nobody is better the last month of the season than the Seahawks at home. They are sensational 34-16 ATS and have Cleveland (12/20) and St. Louis (12/27).

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh comes in 36-22 ATS and as per usual they will also be on the playoff hunt. The Steelers will be facing two clubs that are same situation in Indianapolis (12/6) and Denver (12/20), who are a trying to repeat as division champions.

Green Bay is 31-19 ATS and often against inflated numbers at the frozen tundra by this time of year. Dallas pays a visit on the 13th. Houston chimes in at 17-9 ATS, but has a toughie with New England (12/13).

Keep an eye on (Bad): You would think the Bills would have an edge in the Buffalo winter, but they are just 20-30 ATS at home. The Bills home slate is not easy either with games against Houston (12/6) and Dallas (12/27).

St. Louis has three home games in 11 days starting Dec. 6th against Arizona, Detroit and Tampa Bay on a Thursday night (17th). Unfortunately for the Rams they are 18-28 ATS this month at the Edward Jones Dome.

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): As crazy as it seems Buffalo has no edge at home, they are 32-21 ATS on the road in December. Maybe the players want to get out the cold also, but trips to Philadelphia and Washington in Weeks 14/15 are hardly warm weather destinations.

Bad: Long time football bettors who look at whole schedules to formulate opinions annually mark Chicago as 'play against' teams, knowing their 13-34 ATS road record. Trip to Minnesota (12/20) and Tampa Bay (12/27) do not figure to be pleasant.

The Oakland Raiders are nearly as bad as the Bears at 17-34 ATS and a division game at Denver (12/13) could add to their woes.

Keep an eye on (Bad): We all realize San Francisco is a bad football team, we knew that in August. What everyone might not know is they are lousy against the spread on the road at 18-33 ATS and have trips in the Midwest to take on Chicago (12/6), Cleveland (12/13) and Detroit (12/27).

Last season was a rare no fold job by Dallas this month but one year does not correct 22-34 ATS mark. The Cowboys have a Monday nighter in Washington on the 7th, six days later they are in Green Bay and Week 16 in Buffalo, all without Tony Romo.

As good as the Texans are at home, that is just about how bad they are on the road at 12-19 ATS. To win AFC South they will have to do much better at Buffalo (12/6), at Indianapolis (12/20) and at Tennessee (12/27).

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): The Packers had the dreadful looking three-game losing streak but they have been excellent front-runners in December at 47-26 ATS. Green Bay will be favored in every game except for trip to Arizona (12/27).

Bad: Miami ended being overrated this season, but nobody will do that to them this month at 22-46 ATS. For sure they will be handing out points against Baltimore (12/6) and possibly the next three weeks depending on circumstances against N.Y. Giants, at San Diego and Indianapolis.

Cleveland will also leave some coal in stocking as favorites at 5-10 ATS and will have the 49ers on the shores of Lake Erie on the 13th. What an ugly mess that game looks to be.

Keep an eye on (Bad): With the Cowboys shabby record this month, it makes sense they would not be to hot as favorites and are not at 21-35 ATS. The 'Boys chances of being favorites might have eclipsed with Mr. Romo.

The Raiders are bankroll-burners in this role at 16-26 ATS and will favored for sure on Christmas Eve versus San Diego.

UNDERDOGS

Good: With the kind of season Carolina is having, hard to imagine them as underdog, but it's been something that helped football bettors have better gifts to hand out at incredible 30-14 ATS run. The only possible time this will happen in the 20th in New Jersey against the Giants.

Last year's NFC champs the Seahawks are not far behind at 40-20 ATS and could be catching points at Minnesota (12/6).

Keep an eye on (Good): New England is 21-12 ATS, but who will they be an underdog too?

Keep an eye on (Bad): Chicago is miserable 20-39 ATS in this spot and will be receiving points at Minnesota (12/20) and the following week at Tampa Bay.

Oakland will be pooches at Denver (12/13) and when Green Bay visits them the following week and seems unlikely they will improve on 22-41 ATS mark.

Like an employee the night after the company Christmas party, the Rams have been sluggish at 20-37 ATS.

DIVISION

Good: The Panthers know how to close and are 27-11 ATS facing divisional foes the last month of the year. They will have three chances to improve on this playing at New Orleans (12/6) and having home and home with Atlanta on Dec. 13th and 27th.

Keep an eye on (Good): Normally this time of year New England has big spread numbers to overcome, yet is still 30-17 ATS against the AFC East. Just one matchup and that is versus the Jets on the 27th. Seattle is also quite strong at 30-16 ATS and has a revenge game with St. Louis on Week 16.

Keep an eye on (Bad): As just mentioned, St. Louis has to face Seattle in late December and they are hardly dangerous in division at 19-29 ATS. Before that contest, on the sixth of the month Arizona will be seeking payback.

Oakland only has one game remaining out of the AFC West, which is not good when sporting 20-31 ATS record. They will have Kansas City (12/6) and San Diego (12/24) at home, plus a trip to the Mile High City (13th).

Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2015, 10:40 PM

Tech Trends - Week 13
December 2, 2015

THURSDAY, DEC. 3
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
GREEN BAY at DETROIT (NFL NETWORK, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Lions surging with three wins and covers in a row, plus win at Lambeau for first time since 1991! Lions usually fare much better at home vs. Green Bay, winning last two and 3-2 SU last five. Pack skidding with 1-4 SU mark last five and 1-5 spread mark last six this season. Pack also "under" 8-3 in 2015.
Tech Edge: Lions and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

SUNDAY, DEC. 6
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SAN FRANCISCO at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears are continuing their surge, now 5-1-2 vs. spread last eight on board this season. John Fox Broncos and Bears teams 35-22-1 vs. spread in regular season since 2012. 49ers just 0-5 SU and 1-4 vs. line away TY, now 1-6 vs. number last seven away. SF surprising "over" 4-1 on road this season though 17-10 "under" overall since 2014.
Tech Edge: Bears, based on recent trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
After last Monday vs. Ravens, Browns no covers last five or SU wins last six this season. Cleveland also "over" a surprising 5-1 this season as host. Marvin Lewis has lost and failed to cover 2 of last 3 at Brownies but Cincy is a sparkling 9-1-1 vs. line this season and 13-4-1 last 18 overall vs. spread in regular season.
Tech Edge: Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Titans have lost 11 straight at home, 3-3 ATS mark at Nissan Stadium this season. Jags a rather remarkable 8-1-1 ATS last 10 in series including recent 19-13 win on Nov. 19 at EverBank Field. Jags are 6-1 ATS their last 7 away from home and have covered four in a row this season. Last four "under" in series and Titans "under" 9-6 last 15 in Nashville.
Tech Edge: Jags and "under," based on series and team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
HOUSTON at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans have won & covered last four. Defense better lately but Texans still "over" 6-4-1 this season and 7-4-1 last 11 since late 2014. Houston has won and covered last 3 in series dating to 2009. Bills 2-3 vs. line at Ralph Wilson Stadium TY and 4-7 vs. number last 11 as host. Rex Ryan teams 10-15-1 vs. line since 2014.
Tech Edge: Texans and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
BALTIMORE at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Into December and the Dolphins have only played three games at Sun Life Stadium! Maybe that's best because they're just 1-5 vs. number last six as host. Also "over" 7-4 last 11 at home.
Tech Edge: Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
CAROLINA at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Pan-thas 11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS and on 15-0, 11-3-1 ATS run since late 2014! They've also covered 7 straight on road. Saints, however, did inflict one of those 2 ATS losses this season and have actually covered two of last three. Carolina 12-2 ATS last 14 at Superdome, Saints 2-8 ATS last 10 as host. Saints "over" 17-10-1 last 27 games.
Tech Edge: Panthers and "over," based on series and team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
SEATTLE at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seahawks 1-3-1 vs. line away this season, only cover at SF, and just 4-6-1 vs. spread in 2015. Vikings had covered eight in a row prior to recent Green Bay loss. Minnesota also "under" 5-0-1 last six at Gophers Stadium.
Tech Edge: Vikings and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ARIZONA at ST. LOUIS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Big Red 4-2 ATS away this season, and Arians 13-5 ATS last 18 as reg.-season visitor. Arians had won/covered 4 straight from Jeff Fisher prior to 24-22 home loss back on Oct. 4. Arians 28-14-1 ATS in regular-season games since taking over Cards in 2013. Rams no covers last 4 and "under" 8-3 in 2015, though Arizona "over" 8-3 this season.
Tech Edge: Cards and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
ATLANTA at TAMPA BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcons no wins last 5 or covers last 7 this season. Bucs 5-2 SU/ATS last seven in 2015. Lovie won in OT at Georgia Dome on Nov. 1. Falcons also "under" 8-2-1 for Dan Quinn TY and 2-11-1 "under" since late 2014. Lovie, however, only 2-3 ATS as host TY and 4-9 vs. spread at Raymond James since last season, compared to his 9-5 ATS road mark.
Tech Edge: Bucs and slight to "under," based on recent and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
N.Y. JETS at N.Y. GIANTS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Eli has covered four of last five this season and is 10-5 last 15 on board since late 2014. Eli also "over" 8-5 last 13 since late 2014. Jets no covers four of last five this season and "over" 7-5 since late 2014.
Tech Edge: Giants and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DENVER at SAN DIEGO (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Denver has won and covered four straight at Qualcomm. Bolts 4-7 vs. line this season, 6-16 vs. number last 21 since early in the 2014 season. San Diego has also dropped last five vs. spread at home.
Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team and series trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Chiefs have won and covered five straight. For most of the past two decades this has been a visitor series, and prior to Chiefs dropping 2 of last 3 in Oakland they had covered 8-0-1 previous nine at Coliseum, and now 15-5 ATS as series visitor since 1995. Raiders no covers last two TY but they are "over" 11-3 last 14 since late 2014.
Tech edge: Chiefs and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
PHILADELPHIA at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Eagles are a sinking Chip, no wins or covers last three, and Chip Kelly 5-10 ATS last 15 on board. Note Belichick four straight "unders" this season as he reverses long "over" trending, also 3-1-2 ATS at Foxborough this season and 7-2-2 last 11 as host.
Tech Edge: Patriots and slight to "under," based on team and recent "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Indy turnaround with 6-1 ATS mark last seven this season. Including three straight covers as visitor. Steel only one cover last five this season but must view 2015 marks in context because of injuries and Big Ben availability. Steelers "under" 8-3 this season but note "over" last week, and were "over" 7-2 in nine at Heinz Field until injuries hit TY.
Tech Edge: Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

MONDAY, DEC. 7
NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
DALLAS at WASHINGTON (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Skins getting the money in this series, covering 8 of last 10 vs. Dallas. Skins 5-1 SU and 4-2 vs. line as host this season, and "over" 4-2 last six in 2015.
Tech Edge: Skins and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2015, 10:42 PM

Thursday's Top Action
December 2, 2015

GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-4) at DETROIT LIONS (4-7)
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 47

The Lions will be going for their fourth straight victory when they host the Packers on Thursday night.

Green Bay comes into Thursday’s meeting with Detroit in the midst of a major slump. The Packers have lost four of their past five games SU and five of their past six ATS. One of those losses came at home against the Lions, when Green Bay lost 18-16 as a 10-point favorite.

The Packers will be desperate for a win on Thursday, but they will be facing a Lions team that has won three straight games both SU and ATS and has suddenly found some confidence. Detroit is 2-0 both SU and ATS when hosting Green Bay over the past three seasons and will be hoping to win a third straight on Thursday.

One trend favoring the Packers in this game is that the Lions are 4-14 ATS off one or more consecutive Overs in the past three seasons. Another fact worth pointing out in this game is that the Lions are 9-0 Over after a win by 28 or more points since 1992.

OT Bryan Bulaga (Undisclosed) is questionable for Green Bay on Thursday and WR Ty Montgomery (Ankle) is doubtful. For the Lions, WR Calvin Johnson (Ankle) is probable and both K Matt Prater (Undisclosed) and S Glover Quin (Ankle) are questionable.

The Packers have really been struggling recently, but they are not a team that should ever be counted out. Green Bay has a very good defense that allows just 19.5 PPG (6th in NFL) and one of the best quarterbacks in football in Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers has been excellent this season, throwing for 2,684 yards with 24 TD and just four INT. He was, however, lousy in the Packers’ loss to the Bears in their most recent game, throwing for just 202 yards with one TD and one INT. He will need to be a lot better against the Lions on Thursday.

One player that can really give this team a boost is RB Eddie Lacy. After a straight up embarrassing start to the season, Lacy has churned out 205 rushing yards on 39 carries over the past two weeks. The Lions have a very tough run defense, so Lacy will need to use his power to fight for extra yards and take some pressure off of the passing game.

The Lions have looked rejuvenated in recent weeks and QB Matt Stafford is showing the Detroit front office that he should definitely stick around next season. Stafford threw for 337 yards with five TD and zero INT against the Eagles a week ago and has thrown just one INT in the past three contests.

Part of his resurgence has been due to the play of WR Calvin Johnson, who caught three TD in the win over the Eagles on Thanksgiving. It hasn’t been just the offense, though, as this team has allowed just 43 points total over the past three weeks.

This Lions defensive unit allowed just 16 points the last time they faced the Packers and will be looking to come up with a similar effort on Thursday.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2015, 10:43 PM

NFL

Thursday, December 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football Betting Preview: Packers at Lions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Lions, currently 3-point home dogs, will try to cover their fourth game in a row.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+3, 46.5)

The Detroit Lions were on the fast track to oblivion before ending a 24-year drought with a shocking victory at the Green Bay Packers in Week 10. That sparked a three-game winning streak for the Lions, who suddenly find themselves harboring postseason aspirations as they prepare to host the skidding Packers in Sunday's rematch.

Detroit had one victory through eight games, beating NFC North rival Chicago in overtime, before stunning the Packers 18-16 with its first victory at Green Bay since December 1991. “Our guys have been battling and getting better every week and that’s what we have to do again this week,” Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. The loss to Detroit was the third in a row for the Packers, who appeared to get back on track with a 30-13 romp at division-leading Minnesota in Week 11. The momentum was short-lived, however, as Green Bay dropped a 17-13 decision to visiting Chicago on Thanksgiving.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 5.5-point home dogs and have been bet up to +3. The total has been bet down from its opening number of 47.5 to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Packers - WR J. Abbrederis (questionable Thursday, ribs), B M. Hyde (questionable Thursday, hip), C C. Linsley (questionable Thursday, ankle), T B. Bulaga (questionable, ankle), CB D. Randall (questionable Thursday, knee), G T. Lang (questionable Thursday), WR T. Montgomery (doubtful Thursday, ankle).

Lions - WR G. Tate (probable Thursday, calf), WR C. Johnson (probable Thursday, ankle), DT C. Reid (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), K M. Prater (questionable Thursday, undisclosed), S G. Quinn (questionable Thursday, ankle), G L. Warford (questionable Thursday, concussion), T C. Robinson (questionable Thursday, ankle), DT G. Wright (questionable Thursday, ankle), WR L. Moore (doubtful Thursday, ankle).

POWER RANKINGS: Packers (-3) - Lions (+2) + home field (-3) = Lions +2

WHAT BOOKS SAY:

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Aaron Rodgers in 2014: 65.6 completion percentage, 8.4 yards per pass attempt. In 2015? 60.5 percent completions and only 6.9 yards per pass attempt. That?s what happens with no WR?s! Meanwhile, a month ago, I had the Lions ranked dead last in my power ratings. A vastly improved defensive mindset has made all the difference, holding each of their last three foes to 16 points or less."

ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-4, 6-5 ATS, 3-8 O/U): Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers, normally among the league's most accurate passers, has failed to post a completion percentage better than 57.4 percent over his last four games, even though he has nine touchdowns versus two interceptions in that span. One of the few positives during Green Bay's skid has been the re-emergence of running back Eddie Lacy, who has registered back-to-back 100-yard games since the Packers were held to 47 yards on the ground by the Lions. Tied for fifth in the league with 30 sacks, Green Bay has yielded 48 points over the past three games.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-7, 4-7 ATS, 6-5 O/U): Defense has fueled the turnaround by Detroit - after surrendering a shade over 30 points during the ugly 1-7 start, the Lions have held their last three opponents to an average of 13.4 points. Detroit also is coming off its best offensive performance as Matthew Stafford threw for five touchdowns and 337 yards in a 45-14 demolition of Philadelphia on Thanksgiving Day. Wideout Calvin Johnson latched onto three of those scoring passes to end a four-game drought while running back Theo Riddick has 10 receptions for 134 yards and a score in his last two contests.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Detroit.
* Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the Packers in this NFC North showdown, with 61 percent of wagers on Green Bay. They also love the over in the matchup, with 69 percent of wagers on the over.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-02-2015, 10:43 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Thursday's game
Packers (7-4) @ Lions (4-7)-- Detroit won its last three games, Green Bay lost four of last five, including first home loss to Detroit since 1991, just 6th win for Lions in last 30 series games. Packers lost 40-10/19-7 in last two visits here; they won 30-13 at Minnesota in only game on carpet this year. Detroit won field position by twelve yards in 18-16 win three weeks ago- neither team ran ball well. Lions held GB to 5.1 ypa. Packers are 3-2 on road, 2-2 as road faves. Detroit allowed 14.3 ppg in winning last three games, after giving up 37.3 ppg in four games before that. Seven of last eight Packer games stayed under total; five of last seven Detroit games went over. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 6-7 vs spread.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2015, 11:15 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

Green Bay @ Detroit

Game 301-302
December 3, 2015 @ 8:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
135.386
Detroit
129.220
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 6
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 3
47
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-3); Under

Baltimore @ Miami

Game 359-360
December 6, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
127.910
Miami
125.872
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
by 4
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+4); Over

Carolina @ New Orleans

Game 361-362
December 6, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
132.665
New Orleans
128.136
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 4 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 7
50
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+7); Under

Seattle @ Minnesota

Game 363-364
December 6, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
138.390
Minnesota
135.704
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 1
1
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+1); Over

Arizona @ St. Louis

Game 365-366
December 6, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
136.188
St. Louis
128.389
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 8
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 5 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-5 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Game 367-368
December 6, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
126.663
Tampa Bay
132.761
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 6
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
46
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-1 1/2); Under

NY Jets @ NY Giants

Game 369-370
December 6, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
131.012
NY Giants
134.585
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 3 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Jets
by 2 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+2 1/2); Over

Denver @ San Diego

Game 371-372
December 6, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
136.794
San Diego
128.813
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 8
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 4
43
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-4); Over

San Francisco @ Chicago

Game 351-352
December 6, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
125.704
Chicago
137.578
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 12
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 7
43
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-7); Under

Kansas City @ Oakland

Game 373-374
December 6, 2015 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
143.459
Oakland
131.299
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 12
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-3); Over

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Game 353-354
December 6, 2015 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
138.122
Cleveland
125.251
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 13
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 9 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(-9 1/2); Over

Philadelphia @ New England

Game 375-376
December 6, 2015 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
123.002
New England
142.680
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 19 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-9 1/2); Under

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Game 355-356
December 6, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
122.566
Tennessee
127.027
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh

Game 377-378
December 6, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
134.457
Pittsburgh
136.915
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 7 1/2
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+7 1/2); N/A

Houston @ Buffalo

Game 357-358
December 6, 2015 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
132.420
Buffalo
136.890
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 4 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 3
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-3); Under

Dallas @ Washington

Game 379-380
December 7, 2015 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
126.655
Washington
133.055
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 6 1/2
36
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 4
42
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-4); Under

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2015, 11:19 AM

TNF- Packers at Lions
December 3, 2015

There’s no one mentioning anything about relaxing in Green Bay these days. If the Packers lose this one, P-A-N-I-C will rightfully set in.

That’s the backdrop for Thursday night’s visit to suddenly revitalized Detroit, which has won more games over the last five weeks than the Packers have. That includes an 18-16 victory in Green Bay on Nov. 15 which not only snapped a 12-game winning streak for the Pack at Lambeau Field, but also a run of 24 consecutive losses for the Lions in Green Bay.

Kicker Mason Crosby missed a game-winning 52-yard field goal after Calvin Johnson of all people flubbed an onside kick recovery. At the time, the Lions were a joke, sporting the worst record in football and seemingly incapable of not surrendering an 18-10 lead they held stunningly after holding the Aaron Rodgers-led offense without a touchdown for 54:05. Detroit’s defense snapped the Packers streak of 26 consecutive games with a first-half touchdown. The performance is likely going to be a major reason esteemed Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin lands multiple head coaching job interviews this offseason.

What is Detroit, at home, set to do for an encore? The Packers opened as 3-point favorites, a figure that has held steady all week.

Neutralizing Rodgers, who said he lost feeling in his fingers on his left hand during the second half of their 17-13 Thanksgiving night loss to the Bears, will be the key to the contest for Detroit. The Lions blitzed Rodgers 23 times in their Week 11 win, the most heat they’ve ever sent at him in anyone of their 13 games against him. It worked, since his 12 incompletions against the blitz were the most in his career. Rodgers, typically surgical, went 35-for-61.

He’s gone 38-for-77 since in splitting results with NFC North rivals Minnesota and Chicago. Weather was a factor in last week’s loss since a heavy rain fell at Lambeau. Rodgers was drilled by Bears linebacker Lamarr Houston in his left arm, causing the aforementioned ailment, and the fact is that Green Bay didn’t score in the second half following the jersey retirement of his legendary predecessor Brett Favre.

Rodgers, who turned 32 years old on Wednesday, spoke about the need for better preparation this week and has practiced normally. Presumably, he was speaking about a receiving corps that has had major issues with consistency and suddenly badly misses the injured Jordy Nelson, who was lost for 2015 when he tore his ACL in Week 2 of the preseason. Davante Adams, who was targeted 21 times in the first meeting with Detroit, catching 10, comes off a game where he made just two receptions on 11 passes Rodgers threw his way. James Jones, who ranks second on the Packers with 592 receiving yards and first with 7 TD catches, had no receptions in the losses to the Lions and Bears. Promising rookie Ty Montgomery, who had 15 catches in five games before a significant ankle injury, has been ruled out. Only Randall Cobb has been reliable enough to truly be counted on among the receivers. Tight ends Richard Rodgers and Justin Perillo aren’t dynamic athletes.

One of Detroit’s strengths over the course of its three-game winning streak has been the blanketing of opposing receivers, in part caused by its ability to generate pressure. The Lions sacked Mark Sanchez six times and pressured him an additional seven times. In their 18-13 Week 11 win over the Raiders, the defense held Derek Carr to 169 passing yards, his second-lowest total of the season. Star rookie receiver Amari Cooper was held to one catch for four yards.

In other words, what the Lions have been doing to teams of late doesn’t appear to be a fluke. They’ve done it without exceptional linebacker DeAndre Levy, who has played in only game all season due to a knee injury after leading the team with 117 total tackles last season. Key offseason acquisition Haloti Ngata has looked improved. DE Ziggy Ansah comes off a 3.5-sack game and has had one in four of the last five games. Darius Slay has been a shutdown corner.

Green Bay’s plan of attack may be to run the ball as often as possible and rely on its own improved defense. Over the last three games, the Packers have surrendered an average of 16 points, which is wild since they’re 1-2 in those contests. The secondary has been strong, led by top tackler Ha Ha Clinton Dix. Elite linebacker Clay Matthews does whatever it takes and has plenty of help among a front seven featuring BJ Raji, Mike Daniels and Julius Peppers.

Oddsmakers opened Thursday’s total at 46 ½ and VegasInsider.com totals expert Chris David believes it’s hard to go against the ‘under’ for a variety of reasons.

“This matchup pits two teams going in opposite directions and it’s surprising that Detroit is the one on the rise. The Lions have won and covered three straight and their defense has been outstanding during this run, only allowing 14.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Green Bay hasn’t been sharp offensively (19.6 PPG) the last five weeks and those results have translated into a 1-4 record.

“The ‘under’ has also gone 4-1 during this span for the Packers and that’s been the theme for total bettors following the Packers in their first 11 games (8-3),” said David. “While Rodgers and company haven’t looked great at times, they have bounced back well after poor efforts. Including last week’s 13-point production versus Chicago, the Pack have been held under 20 points four times. In the following game, Green Bay scored 24, 29 and 30 points.”

Given that fact, some may favor a shootout here. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford does come off a career high-tying five touchdown passes in Detroit’s 45-14 dismantling of Philadelphia. He’d thrown for more than 200 yards by halftime for only the second time in his career. Johnson caught three of the scoring throws, also tying a career high. They handed the ball to speedy rookie Ameer Abdullah 16 times, broke Joique Bell off a few carries and got Theo Riddick involved in the passing game out of the backfield to achieve some balance. Golden Tate also got going, catching seven of eight targets.

“Despite its latest defensive run, the Lions have seen the ‘over’ go 6-5 this season. Even though most bettors expect shootouts on the fast turf at Ford Field, this series has watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings at this venue. Bettors playing totals on the Thursday Night game this season have seen the ‘under’ cash seven consecutive weeks.”

The Packers carry a two-game losing streak in Detroit into Ford Field and have lost three of their last four Thursday night games, including a 40-10 embarrassment in 2013 started by then-backup QB Matt Flynn. Rodgers is 5-3 on Thursdays, throwing 15 TDs and just 3 INTs, while counterpart Stafford is 3-3 with 14 TDs and 9 INTs.

Both teams have a few injury concerns. Green Bay offensive linemen Bryan Bulaga, TJ Lang and Corey Linsley are all questionable but should play. Safety Micah Hyde should be back after missing the Bears loss, but corner Damarious Randall is also questionable. Backup WR Jared Abbrederis should play, but reserve TE Andrew Quarless likely won’t.

Detroit should have DT Caraun Reid available as well as safety Glover Quin back after a scare with his left ankle and are likely to have Megatron, center Travis Swanson and guard Larry Warford available for the offense. Kicker Matt Prater is also expected to go. WR Lance Moore won’t play.

Since this one is indoors, weather won’t be a factor.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2015, 11:19 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thursday - Dec, 3

Green Bay at Detroit, 8:25 ET
Green Bay: 36-19 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points
Detroit: 4-14 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Sunday - Dec, 6

San Francisco at Chicago, 1:00 ET
San Francisco: 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
Chicago: 6-0 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Cincinnati at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 7-1 ATS against conference opponents
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 11-3 OVER in road games in games played on a grass field
Tennessee: 1-10 ATS off a home loss

Houston at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Houston: 1-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less
Buffalo: 8-2 ATS off a road loss

Baltimore at Miami, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 42-25 ATS in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3
Miami: 0-6 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game

Carolina at New Orleans, 4:25 ET
Carolina: 10-2 ATS off a road win
New Orleans: 28-50 ATS in home games versus division opponents

Seattle at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 12-3 UNDER after scoring 25 points or more in 3 straight games
Minnesota: 8-1 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Arizona at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 22-10 ATS against conference opponents
St Louis: 75-102 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Tampa Bay: 58-38 UNDER as a home favorite of 7 points or less

NY Jets at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
New York: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs
New York: 19-7 ATS against AFC East division opponents

Denver at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Denver: 8-0 ATS in road games versus division opponents
San Diego: 1-9 ATS in home games after the first month of the season

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Kansas City: 35-19 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive wins
Oakland: 9-21 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less

Philadelphia at New England, 4:25 ET
Philadelphia: 8-1 OVER off a road loss
New England: 7-0 ATS off a road loss

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 33-55 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 2 games
Pittsburgh: 8-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

Monday - Dec, 7

Dallas at Washington, 8:30 ET
Dallas: 46-26 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse
Washington: 4-13 ATS in home games when playing on Monday night

**StarDust Bum** · 12-03-2015, 11:20 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

49ers (3-8) @ Bears (5-6)- Chicago won three of last four games, covered six of last eight; they're 1-4 at home, with only win 22-20 (+3) over Oakland. 49ers lost four of last five games; they're 1-4 as road underdogs, losing all five games by average of 35-14- four of five went over total. 49ers lost last four visits here, by 6-10-8-31; last SF win in Windy City was an '88 playoff game. SF scored 10.4 ppg in last five tilts; they've run ball for just 63 ypg in two post-bye games- they don't have a takeaway in last three games (-4). NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 7-2 against spread; NFC West road underdogs are 1-6. Four of last five SF games, three of last four Bear games stayed under total.

Bengals (9-2) @ Browns (2-9)-- Teams split series last three years; Cincinnati (-13) won first meeting 31-10 four weeks ago, one of eight NFL games this year with zero turnovers. Bengals split last eight visits here; they're 5-1-1 as favorite this season, 1-0 on road. Cincy is 4-1 on road, winning by 20-4-13-6 points. Browns had brutal loss late Monday nite, losing on blocked FG/TD on last play of game; they've lost six games in row (0-5 vs spread), McCown is out for year; either Davis/Manziel will start at QB. Cleveland lost last four home games, three by 7 or less points. Last five series games were decided by 10+ points. Over is 8-3 in Cleveland games, 4-1 in last five Bengal games.

Jaguars (4-7) @ Titans (2-9)-- Teams split season series last six years; Jags are 2-5 in last seven visits here, but won 19-13 (-3) in Thursday night game vs Titans two weeks ago- Jags' only TD drive was five yards. Tennessee lost its last 11 games at home, with three of five home losses this year by 3 or less points- they lost nine of last ten overall (1-4 vs spread in last five). Jax covered four of last five games; their only road loss by more than seven points was in Foxboro. Jaguars are 3-2 as road underdogs this year. Last four series totals were 36 or less. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 14-23-2 vs spread. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Titan games; five of last seven Jax games went over.

Texans (6-5) @ Bills (5-6)-- Houston won last four games, allowing 8.8 ppg; they're tied for 1st in division, would be Wild Card if playoffs started today. Texans gave up two TDs on last 46 drives; they're 2-3 as road underdogs. Bills lost three of last four home games; they're 1-2 as home faves. Houston won last three series games, by 21-12-6 points; they won two of last three visits here. Texans have yet to run ball for 100+ yards on road; they outscored last five foes 67-20 in second half. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 5-3-1 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 11-8 vs spread, 6-5 on road. Last four Houston games stayed under total; four of last six Buffalo games went over.

Ravens (4-7) @ Dolphins (4-7)-- In last two games, Miami ran ball 23 times for just 82 yards; offensive coordinator got fired Monday- expect them to run ball more in this game. Baltimore allowed only 81.5 rushing ypg in last four games. Dolphins lost four of last five games, are 1-2 at home- they were outgained by 100 ypg in last three games. Ravens won three of last four games after scoring TD on blocked FG for walk-off win late Monday nite; they're 2-4 on road, the other win coming in OT at Pittsburgh. Favorites are 2-3 vs spread week after playing Jets; dogs are 2-0 the week after playing Cleveland. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 5-3-1 vs spread; AFC North road dogs are 5-5-1.

Panthers (11-0) @ Saints (4-7)-- Carolina won five of last seven games against New Orleans, beating Saints 27-22 (-10) at home in Week 3, Panthers averaged 9.8 ypa in that game. Carolina won two of last three visits here, with last four totals 44+ here. Saints lost last three games, allowing 35 ppg; they were outscored 47-7 in second half of those games- firing their DC didn't help in 24-6 loss at Houston last week, Texans ran ball for 165 yards. Carolina is last unbeaten team; they covered seven of last eight games. Four of Panthers' five road wins are by 11+ points. Over is 7-2 in last nine Carolina games, 5-2 in last five Saint games. New Orleans split last four home games, despite scoring 32.8 ppg- last three at home went over.

Seahawks (6-5) @ Vikings (8-3)-- Seattle has led in 4th quarter of every game this year; they're on road for first time in five weeks- three of its five road games (2-3) were decided by 3 or less points. Minnesota won six of last seven games, covered nine of last ten; they're 4-1 at home, losing last home game to Packers. Vikes are 7-0 when allowing less than 20 points; Seattle scored 21 ppg in first five road games. Seahawks didn't allow TD in its last two road games. Teams are 3-6 the week after playing Atlanta. NFC North non-divisional home teams are 9-5 against the spread; NFC West road teams are 4-9. Five of last seven Seattle games went over the total; under is 3-0-1 in last four Viking games. 11 of 13 series totals were 44+.

Cardinals (9-2) @ Rams (4-7)-- Arizona was -3 in turnovers in both its losses, one of which was 24-22 (-6.5) at home to Rams in Week 4, Rams ran ball for 164 yards, were outgained 447-328 n their first win over Cards in last four tries- Arizona lost two of last three visits here. Wheels fell off for Rams, losing four in row, scoring an average of 12.8 ppg- they've got five TDs on last 52 drives, turned ball over seven times on 25 drives last two games. St Louis is 2-5 as a dog, 1-1 at home- they're 3-2 SU at home. Redbirds won last five games, last three by 7 or less points; Arizona is just 13-43 on third down in last three series games. Three of last four Cardinal tilts went over the total; six of last seven Ram games stayed under.

Falcons (6-5) @ Buccaneers (5-6)-- Atlanta outgained Bucs 496-290 in first meeting, but was -4 in turnovers in 22-20 (-7) loss in Week 8; Falcons lost five of its last six games after a 5-0 start- Ryan has thrown huge INTs in last two games. Falcons are 2-2 in last four visits here- they scored 26 points (two TDs/21 drives) in two games on natural grass. Tampa is 4-1 when it allows 20 or less points; they're 2-3 at home, winning two of last three. Bucs are 16-29 on third down last two games. Teams are 2-6-2 vs spread week after playing Indy, 3-7 after playing Minnesota. Seven of last eight series totals were 43+; last five Atlanta games stayed under total. Atlanta has turned ball over 19 times in its last seven games (-10).

NJ Jets (6-5) @ NJ Giants (5-6)-- Both sides call this stadium home; technically this is Giants home game, but I'm quoting home stats both ways here. Giants won last five series games, with four of five wins by 7+ points- average total last four series games, 57.5. Jets are +14 in turnovers in their six wins, -13 in five losses; they're 4-2 in Swamp this year- they covered one of last five games. Giants are tied for first in NFC East despite being 5-6; red flag was going 2-3 in five-game stretch where they were + in turnovers all five games. Big Blue won three of last four home tilts. AFC East teams are 12-13-1 vs spread outside its division; NFC East teams are 9-17. Five of last seven Jet games went over total.

Broncos (9-2) @ Chargers (3-8)-- Denver is 2-0 with Osweiler starting, winning at Chicago 17-15 in his first road start; Broncos won seven of last eight series games, with wins by 7-14-12 points in last three. Denver won last four visits here. Chargers snapped 6-game skid last week; they lost last four home games, are 1-5 vs spread at home and was down 21-0 in game they covered. San Diego scored 30+ points in all three of its wins; they're 2-6 vs spread in its losses- they're 3-3 as an underdog. Broncos ran ball for 170-179 yards in last two games; they averaged 86 ypg before that. Eight of last 11 series totals were 47+. Teams are 3-5 week after playing New England. Three of last four San Diego home games stayed under total.

Chiefs (6-5) @ Raiders (5-6)-- KC won/covered last five games, running ball for 152.2 ypg after starting season 1-5, but Chiefs had major injury issues on OL last week, not sure how healthy they'll be here. Chiefs are 3-1 vs Oakland in Reid era, with wins all by 17+; they lost two of last three visits here, after winning eight in row at Oakland before that. Raiders snapped 3-game skid in Nashville LW; they're 5-2 vs spread as underdogs this year. Teams are 3-6 SU week after playing Titans and were favored in seven of nine games. Favorites are 1-5 vs spread week after playing Buffalo. Chiefs were + in turnovers seven games in row- they're +14 in turnovers their last five games.

Eagles (4-7) @ Patriots (10-1)-- Philly allowed 951 TY, 90 points in last couple games, giving up 11 TDs, five FGA on 21 drives. Pats lost first game LW, lost Gronkowski; Brady's three best targets are out here. NE won last four series games, scoring 31+ in three of the four. Eagles lost last three games, scoring 16.7 ppg; they're 1-2 as underdogs this year- Bradford is expected back at QB, not sure that is a help. Patriots are 3-0-3 as home favorite this year, 0-2-1 vs spread in last three overall. NFC East non-divisional road dogs are 2-7 vs spread; AFC home favorites are 5-3-1. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; three of last four Eagle games went over.

Colts (6-5) @ Steelers (6-5)-- Indy is 4-0 when 40-year old backup Hasselbeck starts; they won last three games, covered last four- they're 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, but are 3-16 in last 19 games vs Steelers, losing 13 of last 15 visits here, winning in '68/'08. Pitt whacked Indy 51-34 LY. Steelers are 2-3 (1-4 vs spread) in last five games; they're 2-1 as home faves. Pitt scored 30+ points in last three games; Big Ben had concussion late in game LW but is expected to play here. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-4 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 11-8, 6-5 on road. Seven of last nine Pitt games stayed under total.

Cowboys (3-8) @ Redskins (5-6)-- Dallas is 0-7 when backup QBs start; Romo is out for year. Cowboys lost eight of their last nine games, are 1-3 as a road dog. Dallas is 9-4 in last 13 games vs Redskins, 5-2 in last seven here, taking last two, 24-23/44-17. Washington is tied for first in NFC East despite its 5-6 record; they haven't won consecutive games yet this year- they're 5-6 despite being an underdog in 10 of 11 games (0-1 as favorite). Skins averaged over 10 ypa in last two wins- return of WR Jackson opens up their offense. Teams are 7-2-1 vs spread the week after playing the Giants. Four of five Dallas road games stayed under total.

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The Bum's National Football League Week # 13 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

The Bum's National Football League Week # 13 Rated Plays - Trends - News Etc. !!

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